1 00:00:15,410 --> 00:00:29,850 Speaker 1: Pushkin. June fifteen fifty five, Hampton Court, near London. Inside 2 00:00:29,930 --> 00:00:35,050 Speaker 1: this labyrinthine, red brick palace, a man called John D 3 00:00:36,010 --> 00:00:43,650 Speaker 1: paces around his chamber. It's quiet and claustrophobic. Sunlight slips 4 00:00:43,730 --> 00:00:50,050 Speaker 1: through small leaded windows, casting shadows on flagstone floors. Outside. 5 00:00:50,650 --> 00:00:55,730 Speaker 1: Guards flank the chamber door. John D isn't being held 6 00:00:55,730 --> 00:00:59,410 Speaker 1: in a dank, rat infested dungeon. There are no chains 7 00:00:59,490 --> 00:01:04,570 Speaker 1: in sight. But make no mistake, John D is a prisoner. 8 00:01:05,730 --> 00:01:10,890 Speaker 1: Hampton Court Palace hums with anxious call. Queen Mary has 9 00:01:10,890 --> 00:01:15,170 Speaker 1: announced that she's expecting an air, so she too is 10 00:01:15,250 --> 00:01:21,530 Speaker 1: confined to her chambers. Her advisors are watching John D closely. 11 00:01:22,290 --> 00:01:26,930 Speaker 1: They believe that he's a dangerous man, that he poses 12 00:01:27,290 --> 00:01:33,530 Speaker 1: the utmost threat to his queen. Perhaps he does, But 13 00:01:33,930 --> 00:01:37,210 Speaker 1: John D isn't an assassin or the leader of an 14 00:01:37,250 --> 00:01:45,290 Speaker 1: open rebellion. He's a mathematician. I'm Tim Harford and you're 15 00:01:45,330 --> 00:02:14,410 Speaker 1: listening to cautionary tales. Before he was a prisoner, John 16 00:02:14,490 --> 00:02:17,970 Speaker 1: D was a prodigy. He was born in London in 17 00:02:18,050 --> 00:02:21,530 Speaker 1: fifteen twenty seven, where his father was a wealthy cloth 18 00:02:21,610 --> 00:02:26,170 Speaker 1: merchant and courtier. Rowland D. Gave his son the best 19 00:02:26,490 --> 00:02:30,090 Speaker 1: education that money could buy, and at school the boy's 20 00:02:30,170 --> 00:02:35,850 Speaker 1: appetite for learning was voracious. On occasion, young John accompanied 21 00:02:35,890 --> 00:02:40,130 Speaker 1: his father to the glittering royal palaces, where he glimpsed 22 00:02:40,250 --> 00:02:47,690 Speaker 1: riches from across the globe, tapestries, carpets, mirrors, clocks. He 23 00:02:47,730 --> 00:02:53,170 Speaker 1: saw intricate maps at Court of Rome, of Jerusalem of 24 00:02:53,210 --> 00:02:58,010 Speaker 1: the known world and its entirety, and he mingled with diplomats, 25 00:02:58,210 --> 00:03:03,090 Speaker 1: astrologers and navigators. As he grew older, he came to 26 00:03:03,170 --> 00:03:07,690 Speaker 1: understand that there was a world far beyond London's narrow streets, 27 00:03:08,370 --> 00:03:15,130 Speaker 1: and it brimmed with mystery. At fifteen, d entered the 28 00:03:15,290 --> 00:03:19,970 Speaker 1: University of Cambridge. Here he slept for just four hours 29 00:03:20,010 --> 00:03:25,210 Speaker 1: a night, avidly filling his days with Greek, Latin, scripture, 30 00:03:25,610 --> 00:03:32,570 Speaker 1: law and cryptography. He studied astronomy, tracing the movements of 31 00:03:32,610 --> 00:03:39,850 Speaker 1: the planets and stars across vellum charts. The symbolic interpretation 32 00:03:39,970 --> 00:03:44,210 Speaker 1: of those planets and stars. Astrology was on the curriculum too. 33 00:03:44,850 --> 00:03:49,850 Speaker 1: It was widely accepted that the heavens influenced earthly affairs, 34 00:03:50,290 --> 00:03:54,610 Speaker 1: and astrology and astronomy were considered to be of equal importance. 35 00:03:55,530 --> 00:04:04,370 Speaker 1: Two halves of a whole. At Cambridge, D also tried 36 00:04:04,450 --> 00:04:08,970 Speaker 1: his hand at engineering, building an enormous dung beetle for 37 00:04:09,250 --> 00:04:16,170 Speaker 1: production of aristophanes piece midplay. The beetle leapt into the air, 38 00:04:18,130 --> 00:04:19,770 Speaker 1: as D recalled. 39 00:04:19,810 --> 00:04:24,570 Speaker 2: A great wondering, and many vain reports spread abroad of 40 00:04:24,610 --> 00:04:26,650 Speaker 2: the means how that was affected. 41 00:04:27,810 --> 00:04:31,490 Speaker 1: The audience was shocked, convinced that this was some sort 42 00:04:31,570 --> 00:04:37,370 Speaker 1: of demonic magic. In fact, it was a triumph of mechanics. 43 00:04:38,210 --> 00:04:45,130 Speaker 1: D's calling wasn't sorcery, it was mathematics. In Tudor, England, 44 00:04:45,610 --> 00:04:50,010 Speaker 1: maths was a deeply suspect discipline, seen as a slippery 45 00:04:50,090 --> 00:04:56,330 Speaker 1: slope to the dark arts. Pythagoras himself was believed in 46 00:04:56,370 --> 00:05:00,370 Speaker 1: some quarters to have been a magician, and the Tudor 47 00:05:00,410 --> 00:05:06,970 Speaker 1: authorities had burned many mathematical texts, condemning them as conjuring books. 48 00:05:07,810 --> 00:05:12,050 Speaker 1: But D paid the these critics little mind. He regarded 49 00:05:12,090 --> 00:05:18,050 Speaker 1: maths as practical. Geometry and trigonometry were essential to fields 50 00:05:18,090 --> 00:05:24,090 Speaker 1: such as navigation and astrology. What's more, calculation and ratio 51 00:05:24,690 --> 00:05:29,410 Speaker 1: revealed the hidden architecture of nature, suggesting that the universe 52 00:05:29,890 --> 00:05:35,010 Speaker 1: wasn't chaotic and unpredictable. With the power of numbers, it 53 00:05:35,050 --> 00:05:40,690 Speaker 1: could be ordered and understood. D was determined to understand 54 00:05:40,730 --> 00:05:46,610 Speaker 1: the workings of the universe, and maths was the master key. 55 00:05:49,090 --> 00:05:54,170 Speaker 1: D enriched his studies with travel in Zurich and Antwerp, 56 00:05:54,690 --> 00:05:58,970 Speaker 1: he obtained more books to swell his library. He journeyed 57 00:05:59,010 --> 00:06:03,810 Speaker 1: to Paris, too, where he lectured in algebra at the 58 00:06:03,850 --> 00:06:08,330 Speaker 1: prestigious University of Louvain. Near Brussels, he spent time with 59 00:06:08,410 --> 00:06:15,170 Speaker 1: the celebrated map makers Yemaphrisius and Gerardus Marcatur. By his 60 00:06:15,290 --> 00:06:20,370 Speaker 1: late twenties, John d was squarely a member of Europe's 61 00:06:20,450 --> 00:06:24,450 Speaker 1: intellectual elite. He had a gleaming career ahead of him, 62 00:06:24,610 --> 00:06:28,970 Speaker 1: and he received numerous offers of work. He refused them all, 63 00:06:29,530 --> 00:06:38,290 Speaker 1: preferring instead to return to England. Back in London, Dee 64 00:06:38,330 --> 00:06:42,650 Speaker 1: attached himself to the court of King Edward the sixth. Then, 65 00:06:42,810 --> 00:06:47,770 Speaker 1: in fifteen fifty three, Edward died and after a short 66 00:06:47,890 --> 00:06:52,890 Speaker 1: power struggle, his sister Mary claimed the throne. While Edward 67 00:06:53,010 --> 00:06:56,730 Speaker 1: had been Protestant, the new queen was a devout Catholic. 68 00:06:57,690 --> 00:07:01,010 Speaker 1: She was determined to reverse the religious reforms of the 69 00:07:01,050 --> 00:07:06,610 Speaker 1: previous reign and restore papal authority. She dusted off old 70 00:07:06,770 --> 00:07:10,890 Speaker 1: heresy laws, which gave the the power to root out 71 00:07:10,930 --> 00:07:18,930 Speaker 1: and prosecute anyone who refused to conform. John Dee's father, Roland, 72 00:07:18,970 --> 00:07:22,770 Speaker 1: fell foul of the regime change and was thrown into jail. 73 00:07:23,450 --> 00:07:29,370 Speaker 1: His property was seized and his reputation destroyed. D himself 74 00:07:29,450 --> 00:07:32,530 Speaker 1: had been reliant on his father for an income, and 75 00:07:32,650 --> 00:07:39,370 Speaker 1: his position was now dangerously fragile. At Smithfield, a busy 76 00:07:39,490 --> 00:07:45,490 Speaker 1: London meat market, heretics were burnt at the stake. The 77 00:07:45,490 --> 00:07:50,370 Speaker 1: air was filled with their agonizing screams and with the 78 00:07:50,450 --> 00:08:01,410 Speaker 1: stench of smoldering flesh. England was febrile and paranoid. D 79 00:08:01,650 --> 00:08:06,810 Speaker 1: knew that above all Queen Mary feared her half sister, 80 00:08:07,730 --> 00:08:13,770 Speaker 1: the Protestant Prince Sess Elizabeth, was young, popular, and next 81 00:08:13,770 --> 00:08:18,050 Speaker 1: in line to the throne. Mary kept a watchful eye 82 00:08:18,170 --> 00:08:21,690 Speaker 1: on her sibling, at one point imprisoning her in the 83 00:08:21,770 --> 00:08:28,290 Speaker 1: Tower of London. In fifteen fifty five, the Queen announced 84 00:08:28,330 --> 00:08:32,770 Speaker 1: that she was expecting an heir. At last, the Catholic 85 00:08:32,890 --> 00:08:37,690 Speaker 1: succession would be secure. Mary's physicians believed that the baby 86 00:08:37,730 --> 00:08:41,490 Speaker 1: would be born in late spring, and the queen withdrew 87 00:08:41,530 --> 00:08:47,850 Speaker 1: into confinement at Hampton Court, palace. As spring turned to summer, 88 00:08:48,610 --> 00:08:54,210 Speaker 1: Mary remained confined to her chambers, but no baby was born. 89 00:08:55,370 --> 00:08:58,890 Speaker 1: It was rumored that the Queen was dead, or that 90 00:08:58,930 --> 00:09:03,170 Speaker 1: the child was dead and another infant swapped in its place. 91 00:09:04,650 --> 00:09:08,690 Speaker 1: In fact, Mary had never been pregnant at all. She 92 00:09:08,690 --> 00:09:14,890 Speaker 1: had experiencing what we would call today pseudocyesis a false pregnancy. 93 00:09:16,050 --> 00:09:20,810 Speaker 1: It was a devastating blow, and in the absence of 94 00:09:20,850 --> 00:09:27,770 Speaker 1: an air, Elizabeth's shadow loomed larger than ever at Hampton Court. 95 00:09:28,130 --> 00:09:36,850 Speaker 1: The atmosphere was charged with suspicion. Against this backdrop, John 96 00:09:36,930 --> 00:09:42,970 Speaker 1: d did something risky. He cast a natal reading a 97 00:09:43,050 --> 00:09:47,450 Speaker 1: detailed horoscope charting the planets at the moment of an 98 00:09:47,450 --> 00:09:52,850 Speaker 1: individual's birth in order to predict their lifespan. First he 99 00:09:52,970 --> 00:09:57,850 Speaker 1: mapped the destiny of Queen Mary, then of her husband, 100 00:09:58,250 --> 00:10:02,650 Speaker 1: King Philip, and finally he sketched the stars for the 101 00:10:02,730 --> 00:10:07,330 Speaker 1: woman he knew the Queen feared the most her sister. 102 00:10:12,410 --> 00:10:15,770 Speaker 1: In the fourteen hundreds, a soothsayer for King Louis the 103 00:10:15,810 --> 00:10:19,650 Speaker 1: eleventh of France predicted the death of one of the 104 00:10:19,730 --> 00:10:24,450 Speaker 1: ladies of the court. She perished within a week, right 105 00:10:24,530 --> 00:10:29,130 Speaker 1: on schedule, and the king was unnerved. In fact, he 106 00:10:29,210 --> 00:10:32,930 Speaker 1: felt so threatened by the soothsayer's abilities that he planned 107 00:10:33,010 --> 00:10:36,850 Speaker 1: to have him killed, launched from a window to his death. 108 00:10:38,370 --> 00:10:45,490 Speaker 1: But first the king addressed the man. You have extraordinary foresight, 109 00:10:46,210 --> 00:10:52,770 Speaker 1: he said, so when will your own life end? I 110 00:10:52,810 --> 00:10:57,770 Speaker 1: will die exactly three days before, your majesty. The seer replied. 111 00:10:58,890 --> 00:11:04,210 Speaker 1: It was a master stroke. The king allowed him to live. 112 00:11:06,570 --> 00:11:13,010 Speaker 1: Caissaveilis tells this story in her book Prophecy, Prediction, Power, 113 00:11:13,330 --> 00:11:17,530 Speaker 1: and the Fight for the Future. As Vailey's points out, 114 00:11:18,130 --> 00:11:22,610 Speaker 1: the soothsayer's response was a clever piece of self preservation. 115 00:11:23,650 --> 00:11:27,530 Speaker 1: He linked the king's survival to his own, and so 116 00:11:27,930 --> 00:11:32,370 Speaker 1: the king was motivated to keep him alive. The story 117 00:11:32,490 --> 00:11:36,650 Speaker 1: suggests something important about the nature of prediction and power, 118 00:11:37,050 --> 00:11:42,810 Speaker 1: suggests valies. Predictions aren't simply neutral beliefs about the future. 119 00:11:43,410 --> 00:11:49,050 Speaker 1: They are power plays. They lay claimed the horizon ahead. 120 00:11:49,850 --> 00:11:54,250 Speaker 1: A prediction's accuracy may therefore be less important than who 121 00:11:54,330 --> 00:11:58,930 Speaker 1: it serves, and with the right moves, the canny forecaster 122 00:11:59,090 --> 00:12:06,730 Speaker 1: can make themselves indispensable. The inverse is also true. A 123 00:12:06,770 --> 00:12:11,810 Speaker 1: forecaster who warns of trouble may themselves be seen as 124 00:12:11,810 --> 00:12:23,370 Speaker 1: a threat. In Tudor, England, word of D's royal horoscopes 125 00:12:23,530 --> 00:12:27,970 Speaker 1: had spread. They were said to tell of Mary's death 126 00:12:28,330 --> 00:12:33,250 Speaker 1: and Elizabeth's rise at the Royal Palace, and order went 127 00:12:33,370 --> 00:12:41,010 Speaker 1: out fine John D and arrest him. Charged with calculating, 128 00:12:41,570 --> 00:12:45,970 Speaker 1: conjuring and witchcraft. D was stripped of his books and 129 00:12:46,010 --> 00:12:51,450 Speaker 1: his research and taken into custody. It was treasonous to 130 00:12:51,730 --> 00:12:55,450 Speaker 1: compass or imagine the death of a king or queen 131 00:12:56,490 --> 00:13:03,210 Speaker 1: in charting Mary's lifespan, D had done just that. Were 132 00:13:03,250 --> 00:13:07,530 Speaker 1: the horoscopes and naive blunder on D's part or something 133 00:13:07,570 --> 00:13:11,890 Speaker 1: more cynical in predicting the death of Mary and the 134 00:13:11,930 --> 00:13:17,290 Speaker 1: coronation of Elizabeth? Was D plainly reporting the data? Or 135 00:13:17,330 --> 00:13:20,610 Speaker 1: was he betting on the Queen's younger sister as the 136 00:13:20,650 --> 00:13:26,570 Speaker 1: future of England. If so, it was a perilous strategy. 137 00:13:27,370 --> 00:13:32,170 Speaker 1: Men found guilty of treason were ritually dragged through the streets, 138 00:13:32,570 --> 00:13:40,690 Speaker 1: hung until near death, disemboweled and dismembered. D was imprisoned 139 00:13:40,730 --> 00:13:44,850 Speaker 1: at Hampton Court Palace, where his troubles took an even 140 00:13:45,010 --> 00:13:48,130 Speaker 1: darker turn. He was accused of another. 141 00:13:47,890 --> 00:13:53,370 Speaker 2: Crime, endeavoring by enchantments to destroy Queen Mary. 142 00:13:55,530 --> 00:14:10,010 Speaker 1: Cautionary tales will return d was examined before a tribunal 143 00:14:10,210 --> 00:14:14,970 Speaker 1: of Mary's most staunch allies, but the evidence against him 144 00:14:15,130 --> 00:14:20,650 Speaker 1: was thin and the charges didn't stick. Perhaps his interrogators 145 00:14:20,730 --> 00:14:25,970 Speaker 1: were mindful of his elite connections. In the end, they 146 00:14:26,050 --> 00:14:32,330 Speaker 1: let him go, but his ordeal wasn't over. Suspected of heresy, 147 00:14:32,930 --> 00:14:36,170 Speaker 1: he was now handed over to a bishop known as 148 00:14:36,490 --> 00:14:42,330 Speaker 1: Bloody Bonner for religious questioning. Dee had escaped being hung, 149 00:14:42,490 --> 00:14:46,010 Speaker 1: drawn and quartered, but he realized that he might yet 150 00:14:46,170 --> 00:14:50,890 Speaker 1: be reduced to a pile of ash at Smithfield Market. 151 00:14:52,170 --> 00:14:57,090 Speaker 1: The famous scholar adapted to his predicament, befriending Bloody Bonner 152 00:14:57,570 --> 00:15:01,890 Speaker 1: and helping him interrogate other prisoners on questions of theology. 153 00:15:02,930 --> 00:15:06,650 Speaker 1: He walked free, and before long his star was again 154 00:15:06,930 --> 00:15:09,850 Speaker 1: on the rise. John d She would go on to 155 00:15:09,930 --> 00:15:13,370 Speaker 1: sit at the right hand of power, advising a monarch 156 00:15:13,450 --> 00:15:19,530 Speaker 1: on colonial expansion and drafting the blueprints for a British Empire, 157 00:15:20,250 --> 00:15:24,850 Speaker 1: a phrase he coined. But this isn't a story about 158 00:15:24,890 --> 00:15:31,050 Speaker 1: how greatness is achieved or how empires are envisaged. It's 159 00:15:31,090 --> 00:15:35,970 Speaker 1: a story about what happens when a brilliant imagination goes 160 00:15:36,090 --> 00:15:44,930 Speaker 1: too far. In fifteen fifty eight, Queen Mary began to decline. 161 00:15:45,090 --> 00:15:49,290 Speaker 1: She had believed she was once again pregnant, but once 162 00:15:49,330 --> 00:15:53,930 Speaker 1: again no baby was born, and she fell into depression. 163 00:15:55,130 --> 00:15:59,370 Speaker 1: She also began to suffer from fevers, headaches, and loss 164 00:15:59,410 --> 00:16:02,850 Speaker 1: of vision. She died at the end of that year, 165 00:16:03,650 --> 00:16:08,450 Speaker 1: aged forty two. The crown now passed to her younger 166 00:16:08,610 --> 00:16:14,530 Speaker 1: sister Elizabeth. The new queen liked John d, whose once 167 00:16:14,610 --> 00:16:19,210 Speaker 1: controversial forecasts now appeared to be an impressive track record. 168 00:16:19,930 --> 00:16:22,450 Speaker 1: She asked him to advise on the best date for 169 00:16:22,530 --> 00:16:28,130 Speaker 1: her coronation. England had been lurching between troubled regimes, and 170 00:16:28,210 --> 00:16:32,330 Speaker 1: it was essential that Elizabeth's transition to power had all 171 00:16:32,330 --> 00:16:37,930 Speaker 1: the optics of cosmic legitimacy. Her coronation had to go 172 00:16:38,010 --> 00:16:44,490 Speaker 1: off without a hitch. This was an important opportunity for D. 173 00:16:45,250 --> 00:16:48,530 Speaker 1: He could establish himself in a position of royal favor 174 00:16:48,970 --> 00:16:55,330 Speaker 1: and hopefully gained decent patronage. D set about mapping and 175 00:16:55,450 --> 00:17:00,890 Speaker 1: measuring the planetary omens, determining that the fifteenth of January 176 00:17:01,130 --> 00:17:06,650 Speaker 1: fifteen fifty nine was the most auspicious date. This was 177 00:17:06,810 --> 00:17:09,930 Speaker 1: just a few days away, but Elizabeth wasn't alarmed by 178 00:17:09,930 --> 00:17:15,130 Speaker 1: the lack of preparation. Time. Instead, Dee's prediction reassured her. 179 00:17:15,770 --> 00:17:21,330 Speaker 1: The court immediately swung into action, allocating roles, scheduling rehearsals, 180 00:17:21,370 --> 00:17:28,370 Speaker 1: and commissioning artists, goldsmiths and costume makers. The day before 181 00:17:28,370 --> 00:17:33,530 Speaker 1: the coronation, trumpeters marched through the streets of London. Behind 182 00:17:33,610 --> 00:17:40,130 Speaker 1: them came Elizabeth, resplendent in Crimson. The procession was greeted 183 00:17:40,130 --> 00:17:44,970 Speaker 1: by performances, pageants, and well wishers, who lined the streets 184 00:17:45,010 --> 00:17:47,810 Speaker 1: and offered Elizabeth couquets of flowers. 185 00:17:49,210 --> 00:17:52,450 Speaker 2: I will be as good unto you as ever Queen 186 00:17:52,890 --> 00:17:55,210 Speaker 2: was to her people, she. 187 00:17:55,250 --> 00:18:00,530 Speaker 1: Pledged before a wrapped audience. On the fifteenth of January. 188 00:18:01,010 --> 00:18:05,570 Speaker 1: John D had a coveted seat in Westminster Abbey. He 189 00:18:05,690 --> 00:18:10,010 Speaker 1: watched Elizabeth enter the Great Church in the light of 190 00:18:10,050 --> 00:18:16,650 Speaker 1: a thousand glowing candles. Clad in purple and earning shimmering 191 00:18:16,810 --> 00:18:22,610 Speaker 1: with gold and jewels, she was crowned Queen of England. 192 00:18:23,930 --> 00:18:38,250 Speaker 1: A coronation was perfect. D had triumphed. Under the new regime, 193 00:18:38,610 --> 00:18:43,890 Speaker 1: John D consolidated his influence as the Queen's favorite astrologist. 194 00:18:43,970 --> 00:18:47,530 Speaker 1: He was a sought after adviser. He moved into foreign 195 00:18:47,610 --> 00:18:53,090 Speaker 1: policy too, counseling the crown on the arithmetic, geometry and 196 00:18:53,210 --> 00:18:59,330 Speaker 1: trigonometry at play in navigation. D was called on by 197 00:18:59,370 --> 00:19:03,930 Speaker 1: the Crown out of allegiance rather than employment. There was 198 00:19:04,010 --> 00:19:09,010 Speaker 1: no salaried philosopher role at Queen Elizabeth's court, and for 199 00:19:09,210 --> 00:19:14,170 Speaker 1: D money troubles were never very far away. He got 200 00:19:14,210 --> 00:19:21,170 Speaker 1: by just about by offering a range of freelance services horoscopes, 201 00:19:21,450 --> 00:19:25,450 Speaker 1: private tuition, dream readings, but he was always on the 202 00:19:25,490 --> 00:19:31,890 Speaker 1: lookout for patronage. D moved into a house that belonged 203 00:19:31,890 --> 00:19:36,090 Speaker 1: to his mother, a tumble down timbered cottage in the 204 00:19:36,170 --> 00:19:40,050 Speaker 1: village of Mortlake on the River Thames. He was well 205 00:19:40,210 --> 00:19:42,890 Speaker 1: liked in the neighborhood, where he was known as a peacemaker. 206 00:19:43,570 --> 00:19:47,250 Speaker 1: He was also a source of fascination to the local children, 207 00:19:47,690 --> 00:19:50,450 Speaker 1: who sometimes ran away from him screaming that he was 208 00:19:50,490 --> 00:19:57,370 Speaker 1: a conjurer. At the cottage, D installed a magnificent library, 209 00:19:57,970 --> 00:20:01,930 Speaker 1: thousands of tomes, many of them collected on his travels. 210 00:20:02,890 --> 00:20:07,930 Speaker 1: There were books in Arabic, Latin, Greek, French, Italian and 211 00:20:08,210 --> 00:20:14,090 Speaker 1: Hebrew on everything from geography and horology to alchemy and angels. 212 00:20:15,010 --> 00:20:19,610 Speaker 1: D treasured his library and he was anxious about its survival. 213 00:20:20,650 --> 00:20:23,290 Speaker 1: Sometimes he even had nightmares about it. 214 00:20:25,370 --> 00:20:30,490 Speaker 2: I dreamed that I was dead, and after my bowels 215 00:20:30,530 --> 00:20:35,730 Speaker 2: were taken out, I walked and talked with the Lord Treasurer, 216 00:20:36,730 --> 00:20:40,810 Speaker 2: who has come to my house to burn my books. 217 00:20:44,930 --> 00:20:49,530 Speaker 1: There were other wonders at the cottage, too, astronomical instruments, 218 00:20:50,130 --> 00:20:55,850 Speaker 1: marine compasses, a pair of intricate terrestrial and celestial globes 219 00:20:56,090 --> 00:21:00,170 Speaker 1: gifted to D by the map maker Mekata. In his study, 220 00:21:00,530 --> 00:21:05,290 Speaker 1: he kept his prized perspective Class, a kind of early 221 00:21:05,490 --> 00:21:09,050 Speaker 1: telescope given to D by the English ambassador to brush. 222 00:21:10,970 --> 00:21:15,050 Speaker 1: To the uninitiated viewer, the prospective class seemed to work 223 00:21:15,090 --> 00:21:20,770 Speaker 1: a strange magic. It made things that were small appear large, 224 00:21:21,330 --> 00:21:26,810 Speaker 1: and things that were far away seem near. To D. 225 00:21:26,930 --> 00:21:31,530 Speaker 1: It was a masterpiece of human reason, a window into 226 00:21:31,530 --> 00:21:36,890 Speaker 1: the hidden laws of nature. D was still intent on 227 00:21:37,130 --> 00:21:41,810 Speaker 1: deciphering the mysteries of the universe, and Mortlake was the 228 00:21:41,890 --> 00:21:47,890 Speaker 1: beating heart of his inquiries. The cottage was strategically positioned 229 00:21:47,970 --> 00:21:52,850 Speaker 1: between the royal palaces, and a steady stream of movers 230 00:21:52,890 --> 00:21:56,210 Speaker 1: and shakers called in on Dee as they traveled to 231 00:21:56,450 --> 00:22:01,210 Speaker 1: and fro. They included the explorer Sir Walter Raleigh, the 232 00:22:01,330 --> 00:22:09,930 Speaker 1: Dutch geographer Abraham Ortelius, and sometimes even Queen Elizabeth herself. 233 00:22:13,170 --> 00:22:18,490 Speaker 1: In the fifteen seventies, around his fiftieth birthday, d married 234 00:22:18,690 --> 00:22:24,570 Speaker 1: Jane Fromon's, an intelligent, pragmatic, and occasionally hot tempered gentlewoman. 235 00:22:25,370 --> 00:22:29,370 Speaker 1: Although she was thirty years his junior, the pair formed 236 00:22:29,370 --> 00:22:35,210 Speaker 1: a deep and enduring partnership. Jane Dee was fiercely loyal 237 00:22:35,250 --> 00:22:38,690 Speaker 1: to her husband, who began to keep a systematic diary. 238 00:22:39,650 --> 00:22:43,090 Speaker 1: In it, he recorded his wife's health, the births of 239 00:22:43,130 --> 00:22:48,130 Speaker 1: their children, the weather, his audiences with the Queen, and 240 00:22:48,210 --> 00:22:53,810 Speaker 1: even his financial troubles, meticulously comparing these events with the 241 00:22:53,850 --> 00:23:00,290 Speaker 1: movements of the planets and stars. Around the same time, 242 00:23:00,890 --> 00:23:06,050 Speaker 1: d seized a new work opportunity in England. There was 243 00:23:06,090 --> 00:23:12,690 Speaker 1: a growing fascination with the Northwest Passage, a waterway believed 244 00:23:12,730 --> 00:23:18,610 Speaker 1: to cut through the Arctic. At that time, English merchants 245 00:23:18,650 --> 00:23:23,210 Speaker 1: could only access the spices, silk, and precious metals of 246 00:23:23,250 --> 00:23:28,010 Speaker 1: the East by southern routes, and that meant risking deadly 247 00:23:28,210 --> 00:23:34,330 Speaker 1: confrontation with Spain and Portugal. But if the Northwest Passage 248 00:23:34,410 --> 00:23:38,490 Speaker 1: could be found and claimed, then England would be able 249 00:23:38,570 --> 00:23:42,530 Speaker 1: to outflank her rivals. It would probably be a much 250 00:23:42,610 --> 00:23:49,610 Speaker 1: quicker routiste too. When a determined explorer called Martin Frobisher 251 00:23:49,890 --> 00:23:54,250 Speaker 1: announced his intention to find the passage, John Dee was 252 00:23:54,370 --> 00:23:58,610 Speaker 1: summoned for his sage advice. He gave the mission his 253 00:23:58,970 --> 00:24:03,170 Speaker 1: whole hearted support. He had studied rare maps with the 254 00:24:03,210 --> 00:24:07,050 Speaker 1: Great Makata and was convinced that the passage was out there. 255 00:24:07,850 --> 00:24:12,810 Speaker 1: Alongside this intellectual backing, de gave Frobisher and his crew 256 00:24:13,450 --> 00:24:19,770 Speaker 1: practical support, lessons in geometry and the latest navigational instruments. 257 00:24:21,250 --> 00:24:24,650 Speaker 1: A company was formed to gather funding for the expedition, 258 00:24:25,050 --> 00:24:31,490 Speaker 1: and an impressive list of investors poured their coins into sailors, carpenters, anchors, 259 00:24:31,490 --> 00:24:38,490 Speaker 1: and rigging. In June fifteen seventy six, Crobisher's fleet set 260 00:24:38,490 --> 00:24:43,210 Speaker 1: a course for the Frozen North. At home in Mortlake, 261 00:24:43,730 --> 00:24:49,610 Speaker 1: Deepenn new book General and Rare Memorials pertaining to the 262 00:24:49,650 --> 00:24:55,450 Speaker 1: Perfect Art of Navigation. In it, he argued that an 263 00:24:55,650 --> 00:25:00,930 Speaker 1: English expansion into foreign territories was a matter of destiny. 264 00:25:01,690 --> 00:25:05,930 Speaker 1: He was convinced that King Arthur had once conquered lands 265 00:25:06,010 --> 00:25:13,530 Speaker 1: in the New World, giving Queen Elizabeth sovereign claim to them. Politicians, explorers, 266 00:25:13,610 --> 00:25:18,450 Speaker 1: and the Queen herself were excited about these ideas, eager 267 00:25:18,490 --> 00:25:22,090 Speaker 1: to discuss them with him. It was a career high 268 00:25:22,090 --> 00:25:25,090 Speaker 1: for the scholar, and he planned three more books in 269 00:25:25,130 --> 00:25:33,210 Speaker 1: the series. On his first voyage north Frobisher didn't find 270 00:25:33,250 --> 00:25:36,210 Speaker 1: the passage, but he was pretty sure he came close. 271 00:25:37,330 --> 00:25:40,130 Speaker 1: When he returned to England a few months later, he 272 00:25:40,210 --> 00:25:45,370 Speaker 1: had with him two prizes found on an island, an 273 00:25:45,410 --> 00:25:49,250 Speaker 1: Inuit man that his crew had kidnapped, and a small 274 00:25:49,410 --> 00:25:53,410 Speaker 1: piece of black stone. It was the size of a 275 00:25:53,570 --> 00:25:58,330 Speaker 1: halfpenny loaf, and it sparkled a little in the light. 276 00:25:59,930 --> 00:26:05,370 Speaker 1: England's foremost metallogists were summoned to examine the stone. Two 277 00:26:05,450 --> 00:26:11,610 Speaker 1: of them found nothing, but the third, an Italian alchemist, 278 00:26:12,330 --> 00:26:19,170 Speaker 1: managed to extract a tiny, gleaming fragment. Frobisher hadn't brought 279 00:26:19,250 --> 00:26:24,170 Speaker 1: back just any black stone. He had brought back gold, 280 00:26:24,810 --> 00:26:30,650 Speaker 1: or the court fell into a frenzy. Frobisher was sure 281 00:26:30,730 --> 00:26:34,730 Speaker 1: that the island he had found was stuffed with precious metals, 282 00:26:35,250 --> 00:26:38,130 Speaker 1: and he predicted that with a little more time he 283 00:26:38,210 --> 00:26:42,410 Speaker 1: would find the Northwest Passage itself, a gateway to even 284 00:26:42,490 --> 00:26:47,610 Speaker 1: more riches. New missions were organized. This time, miners and 285 00:26:47,690 --> 00:26:53,650 Speaker 1: metallogists joined the crew. Merchants and noblemen once more clamored 286 00:26:53,650 --> 00:26:56,690 Speaker 1: to invest, Desperate to get in on the opportunity to 287 00:26:56,690 --> 00:27:01,290 Speaker 1: be part of something huge. John Dee didn't want to 288 00:27:01,330 --> 00:27:05,890 Speaker 1: miss out either, and he somehow scrambled together at least 289 00:27:05,970 --> 00:27:11,130 Speaker 1: twenty five pounds, a hefty sum equivalent to several years' 290 00:27:11,210 --> 00:27:17,410 Speaker 1: earnings for an Elizabethan laborer. The Queen herself even bet 291 00:27:17,490 --> 00:27:21,410 Speaker 1: on the scheme, investing money and pledging one of her 292 00:27:21,490 --> 00:27:28,730 Speaker 1: own vessels loaded with men and equipment. Frobisher's ships again 293 00:27:29,010 --> 00:27:33,650 Speaker 1: set sail to Arctic glands that now glittered with the 294 00:27:33,690 --> 00:27:40,850 Speaker 1: promise of God cautionary tales will be back in just 295 00:27:40,930 --> 00:27:52,730 Speaker 1: a moment. When d wrote about King Arthur and a 296 00:27:52,770 --> 00:27:57,290 Speaker 1: British empire, was he manipulating the court or did he 297 00:27:57,530 --> 00:28:05,050 Speaker 1: truly believe in Britain's providential destiny. The answer is probably both. 298 00:28:05,810 --> 00:28:09,810 Speaker 1: D was sure of his own logic, but he also 299 00:28:09,930 --> 00:28:14,770 Speaker 1: knew that a well timed prediction might nudge reality in 300 00:28:14,850 --> 00:28:18,650 Speaker 1: the present, bending it towards a future that he was 301 00:28:18,690 --> 00:28:24,170 Speaker 1: sure would unfold sooner or later. Anyway, this kind of 302 00:28:24,450 --> 00:28:29,770 Speaker 1: strategic forecasting is still with us. Imagine it's a slightly 303 00:28:30,050 --> 00:28:33,810 Speaker 1: overcast day, and you're about to leave the house. When 304 00:28:33,850 --> 00:28:36,810 Speaker 1: you check your weather app you see that there's a 305 00:28:36,930 --> 00:28:40,770 Speaker 1: fifty percent chance of rain. You decide to bring your 306 00:28:40,850 --> 00:28:44,970 Speaker 1: umbrella with you. Companies that predict the weather know that 307 00:28:45,010 --> 00:28:47,770 Speaker 1: if they tell us there's just a twenty percent chance 308 00:28:47,810 --> 00:28:52,730 Speaker 1: of rain, we might leave that umbrella at home. By 309 00:28:52,930 --> 00:28:57,930 Speaker 1: inflating the probability of bad weather, they may protect themselves 310 00:28:57,930 --> 00:29:03,650 Speaker 1: from the ire of drenched customers. Ah Something similar happens 311 00:29:03,650 --> 00:29:07,930 Speaker 1: when it comes to voting for political candidates. Economists have 312 00:29:08,010 --> 00:29:12,330 Speaker 1: found that when people are shown biased opinion polls, they 313 00:29:12,370 --> 00:29:17,930 Speaker 1: tend to favor the candidate that those poles flatter. That's understandable. 314 00:29:18,250 --> 00:29:20,090 Speaker 1: Most of us don't have time to do a deep 315 00:29:20,290 --> 00:29:23,650 Speaker 1: dive on each and every contender, so we look for 316 00:29:23,690 --> 00:29:28,090 Speaker 1: shortcuts that can help us make our decision. If others 317 00:29:28,250 --> 00:29:32,730 Speaker 1: like a candidate, it's not absurd to emulate them. But 318 00:29:32,850 --> 00:29:37,330 Speaker 1: this also suggests that predictions can guide our actions in 319 00:29:37,410 --> 00:29:41,690 Speaker 1: the present. Institutions such as the Federal Reserve and the 320 00:29:41,730 --> 00:29:45,570 Speaker 1: Bank of England play on this phenomenon when they forecast 321 00:29:45,610 --> 00:29:50,330 Speaker 1: whether interest rates will go up or down. Their predictions 322 00:29:50,770 --> 00:29:54,290 Speaker 1: influence what people choose to do with their money, which 323 00:29:54,450 --> 00:30:00,810 Speaker 1: then affects interest rates. We are wishful, anxious creatures who 324 00:30:00,970 --> 00:30:08,290 Speaker 1: crave for certainty rights kurissavellis. Our forecasts can be wishful, too, 325 00:30:08,690 --> 00:30:17,250 Speaker 1: shape by what we hope will happen. Frobisher made two 326 00:30:17,370 --> 00:30:22,530 Speaker 1: more trips north. On his last voyage, a terrible storm 327 00:30:22,690 --> 00:30:27,890 Speaker 1: descended on the fleet. Fog, ice and snow enveloped the ships. 328 00:30:28,810 --> 00:30:32,970 Speaker 1: One vessel sang and two more were blown weeks. Of course, 329 00:30:34,690 --> 00:30:39,170 Speaker 1: Frobisher never found the Northwest passage, but he did manage 330 00:30:39,250 --> 00:30:43,770 Speaker 1: to return to the island. His crew hacked away at 331 00:30:43,770 --> 00:30:47,970 Speaker 1: the promising black Stone and filled their remaining ships with 332 00:30:48,050 --> 00:30:52,130 Speaker 1: over a thousand tons of it. On the journey home, 333 00:30:53,010 --> 00:30:58,250 Speaker 1: they met with yet more brutal Arctic storms, and another 334 00:30:58,570 --> 00:31:05,170 Speaker 1: twenty men were lost. Finally, in late fifteen seventy eight, 335 00:31:05,890 --> 00:31:12,890 Speaker 1: Frobisher's scattered fleet limped into various English ports. The precious 336 00:31:12,930 --> 00:31:18,490 Speaker 1: cargo was discharged just outside London, where special furnaces had 337 00:31:18,530 --> 00:31:23,570 Speaker 1: been constructed for it. Now began the sweltering work of 338 00:31:23,810 --> 00:31:29,450 Speaker 1: extracting gold. D was on the commission that oversaw the process. 339 00:31:30,370 --> 00:31:34,250 Speaker 1: The lumps of rock were ground down and baked until 340 00:31:34,370 --> 00:31:38,930 Speaker 1: fiery hot, but when the clouds of smoke cleared, there 341 00:31:39,050 --> 00:31:45,530 Speaker 1: was only disappointment. Frobisher, it turned out, had brought home 342 00:31:45,770 --> 00:31:56,850 Speaker 1: pi rite, also known as fool's gold. The expedition had 343 00:31:56,970 --> 00:32:00,850 Speaker 1: gambled with the fortunes of some of the most important 344 00:32:00,890 --> 00:32:06,170 Speaker 1: people in England and lost staggering sums of money. With 345 00:32:06,250 --> 00:32:11,170 Speaker 1: its cargo practically worthless, the company couldn't pay its sailors 346 00:32:11,210 --> 00:32:16,330 Speaker 1: and shipwrights. It went into receivership, and its chief financier 347 00:32:16,890 --> 00:32:27,530 Speaker 1: was thrown into jail. Brass buckles, plating newly minted coins, 348 00:32:27,570 --> 00:32:32,290 Speaker 1: all sorts of things glitter like gold, but only pyrite 349 00:32:32,610 --> 00:32:37,650 Speaker 1: belongs to fools. The folly isn't in the rock itself. 350 00:32:38,370 --> 00:32:42,610 Speaker 1: It's in the eye of the wishful beholder, whose desire 351 00:32:43,210 --> 00:32:50,010 Speaker 1: tricks their judgment. Frobisher was ambitious and d had imagined 352 00:32:50,010 --> 00:32:56,690 Speaker 1: a glorious destiny, a British empire providentially justified by King 353 00:32:57,130 --> 00:33:03,770 Speaker 1: Arthur's ancient conquests. Their hopeful predictions about the future shaped 354 00:33:03,890 --> 00:33:09,770 Speaker 1: their confidence, as well as the confidence of others. Passage 355 00:33:10,250 --> 00:33:16,730 Speaker 1: was elusive, the northern terrain was hostile. Two experts deemed 356 00:33:16,810 --> 00:33:21,410 Speaker 1: the lump of black rock worthless, but these events were 357 00:33:21,490 --> 00:33:28,290 Speaker 1: interpreted as setbacks to be negotiated rather than endpoints, and 358 00:33:28,330 --> 00:33:34,530 Speaker 1: so the mission pressed on. Predictions aren't dangerous because they 359 00:33:34,570 --> 00:33:37,610 Speaker 1: can be wrong, but because we can get attached to 360 00:33:37,650 --> 00:33:43,690 Speaker 1: them and fail to change our minds. Optimism is essential 361 00:33:43,810 --> 00:33:48,490 Speaker 1: to exploration and discovery, but it must be carefully audited. 362 00:33:49,450 --> 00:33:53,890 Speaker 1: Living too much in an imagined future can be very 363 00:33:54,050 --> 00:34:04,610 Speaker 1: costly in the present. John Dee was broke, and perhaps 364 00:34:04,690 --> 00:34:10,050 Speaker 1: even worse, the mission's failure was embarrassing for him. He 365 00:34:10,090 --> 00:34:16,930 Speaker 1: had put his intellectual weight behind Frobisher, who'd found nothing. 366 00:34:18,770 --> 00:34:23,410 Speaker 1: There was increasing skepticism about Dee's belief that King Arthur 367 00:34:23,530 --> 00:34:27,930 Speaker 1: had conquered parts of the New World. He continued to 368 00:34:28,010 --> 00:34:32,330 Speaker 1: advise explorers, but he found himself sidelined from the Queen's 369 00:34:32,370 --> 00:34:37,210 Speaker 1: plans for colonial expansion. He also couldn't find a publisher 370 00:34:37,250 --> 00:34:42,330 Speaker 1: for his three remaining books on navigation. For a public 371 00:34:42,410 --> 00:34:46,650 Speaker 1: intellectual whose worth was anchored to his knowledge of the 372 00:34:46,730 --> 00:34:50,610 Speaker 1: world and his ability to be right, the loss of 373 00:34:50,690 --> 00:34:58,210 Speaker 1: his reputation must have been devastating. D now retreated, keeping 374 00:34:58,250 --> 00:35:02,450 Speaker 1: a measure of distance from court. He realized that after 375 00:35:02,650 --> 00:35:07,330 Speaker 1: years of travel, of dialogue with other scholars and of 376 00:35:07,410 --> 00:35:12,450 Speaker 1: reading book upon books, he still hadn't got to the 377 00:35:12,490 --> 00:35:17,890 Speaker 1: heart of the universe. The physical world had let him down. 378 00:35:19,650 --> 00:35:23,810 Speaker 1: He was also over fifty years old, a significant age 379 00:35:23,850 --> 00:35:28,810 Speaker 1: in Tudor terms. Time was running out for him. He 380 00:35:28,890 --> 00:35:35,010 Speaker 1: didn't abandon his quest, but he decided to redirect it. 381 00:35:36,770 --> 00:35:40,730 Speaker 1: John D's royal horoscopes had won him favor with the Queen, 382 00:35:41,650 --> 00:35:44,650 Speaker 1: but his predictions about the Northwest Passage had made him 383 00:35:44,650 --> 00:35:53,450 Speaker 1: a fool. Forecasts were the key to everything, knowledge, favor, patronage. 384 00:35:53,730 --> 00:35:58,530 Speaker 1: But De realized that if he couldn't trust his own calculations, 385 00:35:59,050 --> 00:36:04,170 Speaker 1: he would need the help of a higher and unshakable authority. 386 00:36:05,530 --> 00:36:09,610 Speaker 1: In Elizabethan, England, the planets and stars weren't the only 387 00:36:09,690 --> 00:36:13,930 Speaker 1: window to the future. It was widely accepted, including by 388 00:36:13,970 --> 00:36:18,130 Speaker 1: the most powerful statesman, that angels could be summoned to 389 00:36:18,170 --> 00:36:23,170 Speaker 1: predict what lay ahead. D was particularly interested in the 390 00:36:23,490 --> 00:36:29,050 Speaker 1: Angelic language, a lost tongue thought to mirror the very 391 00:36:29,210 --> 00:36:35,810 Speaker 1: structure of creation. This wasn't just an occult project, it 392 00:36:35,850 --> 00:36:40,410 Speaker 1: was a mathematical bond too. D believed that the Angelic 393 00:36:40,570 --> 00:36:45,890 Speaker 1: language was encrypted in a divine cipher. The same skills 394 00:36:45,970 --> 00:36:49,530 Speaker 1: that had helped him map the stars and build a 395 00:36:49,570 --> 00:36:55,010 Speaker 1: mechanical beetle could also reveal the source code for the universe. 396 00:36:56,290 --> 00:37:00,810 Speaker 1: He couldn't contact the angels or hear the code directly, however, 397 00:37:01,290 --> 00:37:05,690 Speaker 1: writing in his diary, he set down a wish, Oh 398 00:37:05,730 --> 00:37:07,850 Speaker 1: Lord Jesus Christ, a. 399 00:37:07,890 --> 00:37:11,810 Speaker 2: Most humbly beggariar divine majesty, to send me the timely 400 00:37:11,890 --> 00:37:16,410 Speaker 2: help of some pious wise man and expert philosopher. 401 00:37:17,770 --> 00:37:23,370 Speaker 1: The pious expert d Sword was a scria, a seer 402 00:37:23,530 --> 00:37:28,970 Speaker 1: who invoked divine beings by peering into a reflective surface 403 00:37:29,730 --> 00:37:33,650 Speaker 1: known as a showstone, usually a mirror or crystal ball. 404 00:37:34,490 --> 00:37:37,690 Speaker 1: There were Charlatans in their ranks, as in any trade, 405 00:37:38,290 --> 00:37:42,890 Speaker 1: a true scrier was often a social outcast and a 406 00:37:42,930 --> 00:37:52,130 Speaker 1: little bit odd. In December fifteen eighty one, he began 407 00:37:52,250 --> 00:37:55,210 Speaker 1: working with one Barnabas Saul. 408 00:37:57,130 --> 00:38:01,250 Speaker 2: I willed the scria to look into my great crystalline 409 00:38:01,370 --> 00:38:05,250 Speaker 2: globe to see if God had sent his holy angel 410 00:38:05,890 --> 00:38:06,450 Speaker 2: an I L. 411 00:38:08,490 --> 00:38:13,210 Speaker 1: Saul report thought it that Anil was indeed there, d 412 00:38:13,490 --> 00:38:17,810 Speaker 1: was a little dubious, so he pressed the scrier for verification. 413 00:38:19,170 --> 00:38:24,130 Speaker 1: At that moment another angel appeared. Apparently this was the 414 00:38:24,250 --> 00:38:30,050 Speaker 1: real Annil. He was dressed in robes that glittered like gold, 415 00:38:30,170 --> 00:38:35,250 Speaker 1: and beams of light poured from around his head like. 416 00:38:35,490 --> 00:38:40,010 Speaker 2: Star beams blazing his eyes fiery. 417 00:38:41,930 --> 00:38:45,490 Speaker 1: D could see none of this himself. It was Saul's vision, 418 00:38:46,090 --> 00:38:49,970 Speaker 1: but he wrote it all down in detail. Next, the 419 00:38:50,090 --> 00:38:55,290 Speaker 1: skriier saw a profusion of human skulls and a white 420 00:38:55,450 --> 00:39:01,450 Speaker 1: dog with a long head. The archangel Michael appeared, and 421 00:39:01,690 --> 00:39:09,210 Speaker 1: Anil beseeched D to pray continually before he bid D 422 00:39:09,090 --> 00:39:14,330 Speaker 1: E farewell, and I L reconfirmed who he was spelling 423 00:39:14,370 --> 00:39:25,130 Speaker 1: out his name A N N A E L. D, 424 00:39:25,930 --> 00:39:30,730 Speaker 1: who had been growing increasingly excited, was now a little perplexed, 425 00:39:32,770 --> 00:39:36,370 Speaker 1: and A L was spelled with one N, not two. 426 00:39:37,850 --> 00:39:39,970 Speaker 1: Surely the angel knew how to spell his own name. 427 00:39:41,610 --> 00:39:44,410 Speaker 1: A couple of months later, D made a note in 428 00:39:44,490 --> 00:39:49,570 Speaker 1: his diary barnabas Saul had been hauled to Westminster on 429 00:39:49,730 --> 00:39:55,370 Speaker 1: criminal charges, though he didn't specify what these were. In 430 00:39:55,410 --> 00:40:00,810 Speaker 1: the end, Saul was acquitted, but his glittering promise had evaporated. 431 00:40:01,930 --> 00:40:04,850 Speaker 1: He told D that the angels were no longer in 432 00:40:04,970 --> 00:40:09,890 Speaker 1: contact with him. D was suspicious, and they went their 433 00:40:09,970 --> 00:40:17,450 Speaker 1: separate ways. Saul's departure left a space open in D's household, 434 00:40:18,290 --> 00:40:23,130 Speaker 1: and before long another man had stepped in to fill it. 435 00:40:25,090 --> 00:40:29,570 Speaker 1: In March fifteen eighty two, there was a knock at 436 00:40:29,570 --> 00:40:35,450 Speaker 1: the cottage door. Two men stood outside. One was an 437 00:40:35,490 --> 00:40:41,530 Speaker 1: agent who connected scholars and sqriers with potential patrons. The 438 00:40:41,570 --> 00:40:45,970 Speaker 1: other man was strange to D. Although he was young, 439 00:40:46,330 --> 00:40:49,250 Speaker 1: in his mid twenties. He walked with the help of 440 00:40:49,250 --> 00:40:54,690 Speaker 1: a staff. A cowl kept his face in shadow. He 441 00:40:54,770 --> 00:40:59,250 Speaker 1: cut an intriguing figure, and D invited both men to 442 00:40:59,330 --> 00:41:05,290 Speaker 1: dinner that night. He looked to the heavens and was 443 00:41:05,450 --> 00:41:10,210 Speaker 1: stunned by what he saw. I seem to be on 444 00:41:10,330 --> 00:41:13,610 Speaker 1: fire and to grow red like blood as. 445 00:41:13,410 --> 00:41:15,490 Speaker 2: It's spread in different directions. 446 00:41:17,010 --> 00:41:23,210 Speaker 1: DE watched as extraordinary clouds of crimson seeped towards the 447 00:41:23,330 --> 00:41:31,490 Speaker 1: southern horizon. Something momentous had begun. What it was will 448 00:41:31,530 --> 00:41:47,890 Speaker 1: be revealed next time on Cautionary Tales. For a full 449 00:41:47,970 --> 00:41:51,770 Speaker 1: list of our sources, see the show notes at Timharford 450 00:41:51,890 --> 00:41:57,050 Speaker 1: dot com. Cautionary Tales is written by me Tim Harford, 451 00:41:57,250 --> 00:42:01,810 Speaker 1: with Andrew Wright, Alice Fines, and Ryan Dilley. It's produced 452 00:42:01,850 --> 00:42:06,010 Speaker 1: by Georgia Mills and Marilyn Rust. The sound design and 453 00:42:06,050 --> 00:42:10,010 Speaker 1: original music are the work of Pascal Wires, additional sound 454 00:42:10,050 --> 00:42:14,210 Speaker 1: design like Carlos San Juan at Brain Audio and Dan 455 00:42:14,370 --> 00:42:19,490 Speaker 1: Jackson Bender. Dafh Haffrey edited the scripts. It features the 456 00:42:19,570 --> 00:42:24,170 Speaker 1: voice talents of Melanie Guttridge, Genevieve Gaunt, ed gohen Stella, 457 00:42:24,250 --> 00:42:30,170 Speaker 1: Harford Massa m Monroe, Jamal Westman, and Rufus Wright. The show 458 00:42:30,370 --> 00:42:33,730 Speaker 1: also wouldn't have been possible without the work of Jacob Weisberg, 459 00:42:33,930 --> 00:42:40,210 Speaker 1: Greta Cohne, Eric Sandler, Carrie Brody, Christina Sullivan, Kira Posey, 460 00:42:40,570 --> 00:42:45,890 Speaker 1: and Owen Miller. Cautionary Tales is a production of Pushkin Industries. 461 00:42:46,250 --> 00:42:49,770 Speaker 1: If you like the show, please remember to share, rate 462 00:42:49,970 --> 00:42:53,330 Speaker 1: and review really does make a difference to us. And 463 00:42:53,890 --> 00:42:56,770 Speaker 1: if you want to hear it, add free and receive 464 00:42:56,810 --> 00:43:01,810 Speaker 1: a bonus audio episode, video episode, and members only newsletter 465 00:43:01,930 --> 00:43:06,890 Speaker 1: every month. Why not join the Cautionary Club. To sign up, 466 00:43:07,290 --> 00:43:11,850 Speaker 1: head to patreon dot com slash Cautionary Club. That's Patreon, 467 00:43:12,170 --> 00:43:16,770 Speaker 1: p A, t R e o N dot com slash 468 00:43:16,850 --> 00:43:17,730 Speaker 1: Cautionary Club.