1
00:00:02,440 --> 00:00:13,280
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news, single best idea and

2
00:00:13,320 --> 00:00:15,440
Speaker 1: we say good morning to all of you. This has

3
00:00:15,480 --> 00:00:18,040
Speaker 1: really worked out, Thank you so much for the initial reaction.

4
00:00:18,120 --> 00:00:21,239
Speaker 1: We're showing it out on LinkedIn and out on Twitter

5
00:00:21,320 --> 00:00:25,000
Speaker 1: probably four pm five pm each day, plus or minus

6
00:00:25,040 --> 00:00:27,840
Speaker 1: a couple hours, and it's great and we're really centered

7
00:00:27,920 --> 00:00:31,480
Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts. We thank you Apple for really all

8
00:00:31,520 --> 00:00:34,520
Speaker 1: their good work. And there's a group called Charterable which

9
00:00:34,600 --> 00:00:37,040
Speaker 1: keeps track of the podcast. We're humble to how Bloomberg

10
00:00:37,120 --> 00:00:42,199
Speaker 1: Surveillance is doing out a charterable under Business News. It

11
00:00:42,360 --> 00:00:45,280
Speaker 1: was such a different day. At two am, I was

12
00:00:45,360 --> 00:00:49,600
Speaker 1: up and there was the reports of Israel with drones

13
00:00:49,800 --> 00:00:55,520
Speaker 1: who Iran, some secondary news of maybe to Syria as well,

14
00:00:55,640 --> 00:00:57,080
Speaker 1: and then we had to blow up the show. And

15
00:00:57,120 --> 00:01:00,280
Speaker 1: thank you to all of our team, particularly Eric for

16
00:01:00,280 --> 00:01:03,240
Speaker 1: forgetting us Ross Matheson, who was focused on the G

17
00:01:03,360 --> 00:01:06,039
Speaker 1: seven meeting in Italy, and we took Secretary of State

18
00:01:06,640 --> 00:01:10,240
Speaker 1: Blinking with his terse comments and all of it into

19
00:01:11,440 --> 00:01:15,640
Speaker 1: a weekend, getting to Monday, getting into April, getting into May,

20
00:01:15,959 --> 00:01:19,319
Speaker 1: getting maybe off to the second and third quarter of

21
00:01:19,360 --> 00:01:24,080
Speaker 1: twenty twenty four. Lach Monachathon doesn't do that. He looks

22
00:01:24,240 --> 00:01:27,840
Speaker 1: long term, he's looking at cycles. His idea of short

23
00:01:27,959 --> 00:01:31,800
Speaker 1: term is two three, four quarters. And he's trying to

24
00:01:31,840 --> 00:01:34,080
Speaker 1: figure out. This is off the work of Jeffrey Moore

25
00:01:35,360 --> 00:01:39,360
Speaker 1: years ago, like eighty years ago, I'm guessing, and the

26
00:01:39,480 --> 00:01:42,360
Speaker 1: economic cycle research and the idea here is not so

27
00:01:42,520 --> 00:01:47,440
Speaker 1: much econobabble, but much more looking at the broader cycles

28
00:01:47,480 --> 00:01:51,120
Speaker 1: and the leading indicators and what they signal. And we

29
00:01:51,200 --> 00:01:55,400
Speaker 1: asked him about the recession. How did he synthesize the

30
00:01:55,480 --> 00:01:57,560
Speaker 1: pandemic and the recession.

31
00:01:57,840 --> 00:02:00,840
Speaker 2: We did not have a recession in twenty two to

32
00:02:00,840 --> 00:02:03,360
Speaker 2: twenty three, even though the cycle indicators came down hard.

33
00:02:03,800 --> 00:02:07,520
Speaker 2: The reason is, as Tom just eluded, this backwash of COVID,

34
00:02:07,600 --> 00:02:11,080
Speaker 2: there's two key pieces that we're dealing with even today

35
00:02:11,480 --> 00:02:14,679
Speaker 2: the backwash is still here. One is that you have

36
00:02:14,880 --> 00:02:18,680
Speaker 2: a huge constraint, a generational constraint on the labor market.

37
00:02:18,800 --> 00:02:21,360
Speaker 2: So under the Trump administration, you had about four years

38
00:02:21,360 --> 00:02:25,239
Speaker 2: of very low if nothing on legal immigration. That knocks

39
00:02:25,280 --> 00:02:28,360
Speaker 2: out several million people from the labor force. Post COVID,

40
00:02:28,560 --> 00:02:30,760
Speaker 2: a lot of people didn't come back. That knocks out

41
00:02:30,800 --> 00:02:35,000
Speaker 2: millions more on top of a highly constrained labor market.

42
00:02:35,120 --> 00:02:39,440
Speaker 2: We put seven trillion. Remember Senator Turkson, he used to

43
00:02:39,480 --> 00:02:41,520
Speaker 2: say a billion here, a billion theare that's a lot

44
00:02:41,520 --> 00:02:45,160
Speaker 2: of money. Now we're talking trillions here and trillions there.

45
00:02:45,200 --> 00:02:47,760
Speaker 2: On top of a tight labor market. Very hard for

46
00:02:47,840 --> 00:02:50,520
Speaker 2: jobs to go negative. Very so much foam on the runway.

47
00:02:51,000 --> 00:02:52,079
Speaker 2: Hard to have a recession.

48
00:02:52,560 --> 00:02:55,519
Speaker 1: The foam on Latchmenatithon's run RAI is pretty thick. He's

49
00:02:55,560 --> 00:02:58,520
Speaker 1: got a very cautious few forward. We heard there's some

50
00:02:58,639 --> 00:03:02,600
Speaker 1: a number of guests today. The idea of where yield is.

51
00:03:03,280 --> 00:03:06,520
Speaker 1: It's in the short line for chart of the year.

52
00:03:07,200 --> 00:03:09,600
Speaker 1: But someone, and I'm so sorry I can't cite who

53
00:03:09,600 --> 00:03:11,440
Speaker 1: it is. I'll try to get back on Monday and

54
00:03:11,720 --> 00:03:13,680
Speaker 1: tell you who is smarter than me to have this.

55
00:03:14,360 --> 00:03:19,120
Speaker 1: Bloomberg took over the Lehman and Barclays indices a number

56
00:03:19,160 --> 00:03:22,040
Speaker 1: of years ago. Pro tip for those of you out

57
00:03:22,040 --> 00:03:24,919
Speaker 1: on global Wall Street, and particularly those of you with

58
00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:29,400
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg terminal. I can't say enough about the many,

59
00:03:29,960 --> 00:03:34,760
Speaker 1: not one indocy, but the five, the ten, the twenty

60
00:03:34,920 --> 00:03:41,040
Speaker 1: indices of the Bloomberg Total Return and aggregate series their value.

61
00:03:41,480 --> 00:03:45,480
Speaker 1: And there is one that is an aggregate of yield worldwide,

62
00:03:45,800 --> 00:03:48,240
Speaker 1: and the prophrase for it is yield to worst. I'm

63
00:03:48,240 --> 00:03:49,840
Speaker 1: not going to go into that right now. We're going

64
00:03:49,880 --> 00:03:53,240
Speaker 1: to keep the podcast on time today. But the basic

65
00:03:53,320 --> 00:03:58,520
Speaker 1: idea here is we've exploded globally up to a high

66
00:03:58,640 --> 00:04:02,600
Speaker 1: yield of four percent and it's very rare. It goes

67
00:04:02,640 --> 00:04:04,840
Speaker 1: back thirty years to where we are. I'm gonna do

68
00:04:04,920 --> 00:04:07,360
Speaker 1: more work on that, maybe that's for May, but all

69
00:04:07,400 --> 00:04:09,960
Speaker 1: I can tell you is this yield move that you're living,

70
00:04:10,000 --> 00:04:13,240
Speaker 1: for example the housing market and in a mortgage market

71
00:04:13,480 --> 00:04:17,120
Speaker 1: is really really tangible. So then how does that buttress

72
00:04:17,200 --> 00:04:21,400
Speaker 1: up to the equity market. Anastasia m Moroso is with EICAP.

73
00:04:21,520 --> 00:04:25,599
Speaker 1: She was brilliant twelve and eighteen months ago about saying

74
00:04:25,720 --> 00:04:29,960
Speaker 1: have courage to be in the market. She reaffirms that today.

75
00:04:30,560 --> 00:04:33,159
Speaker 3: Look at the technical setup now versus where we were

76
00:04:33,200 --> 00:04:35,680
Speaker 3: in the beginning of April, it is much much cleaner

77
00:04:35,760 --> 00:04:40,679
Speaker 3: uncertain measures. For example, bears are back, you know, relative

78
00:04:40,720 --> 00:04:42,919
Speaker 3: to where they were to start the year. You also

79
00:04:43,000 --> 00:04:46,280
Speaker 3: had a correction a from over bought levels to now

80
00:04:46,360 --> 00:04:49,480
Speaker 3: near oversold levels. You have stocks that are actually trading

81
00:04:49,520 --> 00:04:51,960
Speaker 3: at one month lows, and so all of those indicators

82
00:04:52,000 --> 00:04:55,719
Speaker 3: suggest that we have a much cleaner technical positions. But

83
00:04:56,240 --> 00:04:59,560
Speaker 3: there is a butt from the perspective that we have

84
00:05:00,160 --> 00:05:02,760
Speaker 3: traded down below some of the key moving average levels.

85
00:05:02,760 --> 00:05:05,839
Speaker 3: We have traded down below some of the key thresholds

86
00:05:06,120 --> 00:05:08,960
Speaker 3: for some of the systematic investors. So if we do

87
00:05:09,480 --> 00:05:13,960
Speaker 3: continue to get this cocktail of uncertainty from geopolitics and

88
00:05:14,000 --> 00:05:17,360
Speaker 3: the FED and the macro, I could see some more

89
00:05:17,400 --> 00:05:20,560
Speaker 3: selling pressure on these markets. Now, I do think it

90
00:05:20,640 --> 00:05:23,920
Speaker 3: ultimately resolves because the reason why we say investors should

91
00:05:23,960 --> 00:05:26,720
Speaker 3: step in, because many investors are sitting on twenty or

92
00:05:26,760 --> 00:05:29,479
Speaker 3: thirty percent cash that they need to put back to

93
00:05:29,560 --> 00:05:32,320
Speaker 3: work just to get back to their strategic allocations.

94
00:05:32,839 --> 00:05:36,919
Speaker 1: Anestasia Emmeroso of Capital I can't say enough of the

95
00:05:36,960 --> 00:05:38,760
Speaker 1: many bulls that are out there. In fact, I sent

96
00:05:38,839 --> 00:05:43,479
Speaker 1: an email three hours ago or so to our production

97
00:05:43,600 --> 00:05:46,200
Speaker 1: team and they said, you know, Monday, I really want

98
00:05:46,240 --> 00:05:50,080
Speaker 1: to stack it with equity strategists who in this pullback,

99
00:05:50,160 --> 00:05:53,760
Speaker 1: this draw down of three four percent, with all the geopolitics,

100
00:05:53,760 --> 00:05:58,360
Speaker 1: in particularly with the yield move that we see, how

101
00:05:58,400 --> 00:06:02,919
Speaker 1: they are reaffirming by the stock market, by the dip,

102
00:06:03,080 --> 00:06:07,680
Speaker 1: and Anastasia may no doubt about that she believes by

103
00:06:08,240 --> 00:06:10,600
Speaker 1: the dip. It's been a great, great week. We're out

104
00:06:10,600 --> 00:06:13,280
Speaker 1: on Apple car Play. Thank you for your support. There

105
00:06:13,360 --> 00:06:16,720
Speaker 1: download the Bloomberg Business app again. It's a huge confusion.

106
00:06:17,279 --> 00:06:20,279
Speaker 1: Apple car Play is free? Is there something? It's fashion

107
00:06:20,360 --> 00:06:22,960
Speaker 1: that they say something they're not clear Apple car Play

108
00:06:23,520 --> 00:06:26,480
Speaker 1: is free? And then out on YouTube. Thank you so much,

109
00:06:26,720 --> 00:06:29,880
Speaker 1: all of you. This is really serious. Do not let

110
00:06:29,920 --> 00:06:33,320
Speaker 1: your children try to speak like me because it's like

111
00:06:33,320 --> 00:06:37,600
Speaker 1: the Eclipsidize cost permanent. Damn it. Thank you for being

112
00:06:37,640 --> 00:06:44,160
Speaker 1: out on YouTube. This is single best idea.