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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also.

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Speaker 1: All right, here we go, we're growing in so speak,

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Speaker 1: I'm sitting it to cash.

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Speaker 2: We see most gambles when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 2: go to winning. God, that's incredible being bank small banks,

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Speaker 2: I like to make money.

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Speaker 1: All right, this is the ultimate kabine.

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Speaker 3: If you want to pass.

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Speaker 1: And we are underway.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I'm your host, Evan

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Speaker 2: Abrams and as always for the best, best episode, I

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Speaker 2: am joined by Brandon Anderson. But before we get into those,

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Speaker 2: we're gonna talk a few trends. We're gonna lost some topics,

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Speaker 2: some futures, some awards stuff, and it's gonna be fun

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Speaker 2: to discuss. And we're gonna, you know, we both have

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Speaker 2: opinions here, going back and forth. First of all, Brandon,

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Speaker 2: what's up? How are you?

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Speaker 1: I'm good. I'm ready for some some good action. We

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Speaker 1: had a great weekend of football last week. It's a

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Speaker 1: little bit of a weirder slate this one. I must say,

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Speaker 1: I was not excited when I first looked into it.

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Speaker 1: But here's what happens. If there's a slate that I

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Speaker 1: don't love at first, what that should mean is maybe

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Speaker 1: just a couple less bets. What it actually means is

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Speaker 1: I spend twice as long on it and come up

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Speaker 1: with twice as many niche bets. We got some prouds,

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Speaker 1: we got some first quarterbats. We're gonna have a little

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Speaker 1: fun today, but I'm excited for another good week in

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Speaker 1: a football.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, when you have eight or nine road favorites, you

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Speaker 2: know something crazy is going to happen this weekend. But

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Speaker 2: let's get into the first one here. So double digit

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Speaker 2: favorites this season are five and oh straight up and

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Speaker 2: five and oh against his threat. This week we have

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Speaker 2: two case at Carolina, Dallas at Washington. Brandon, what's your

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Speaker 2: opinion on both these games? Do you have a lean

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Speaker 2: one way or the other?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so we took Washington already on the look ahead

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Speaker 1: minus nine and a half, so we get a little

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Speaker 1: bit of CLV there, at least for now. I am

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Speaker 1: a little concerned. I really expected Lattimore to be ready

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Speaker 1: to go here, and he still is not necessarily practicing.

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Speaker 1: I'd love to have him out there against Ceedee Lamb

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Speaker 1: would feel much better against really the only threat on

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Speaker 1: Dallas offense, if they can even get him the ball.

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Speaker 1: Offensive line still a little bit banged up. This was

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Speaker 1: you know, they played Thursday a week ago, so a

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Speaker 1: little extra time. Still not quite there. So I like Washington.

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Speaker 1: Remember the big thing there is that Washington Dallas has

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Speaker 1: not been a close rivalry fifteen points spread or more,

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Speaker 1: five games in a row, double digits, nine of the

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Speaker 1: last ten. On the other side, we know about the

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Speaker 1: Mahomes trend, right, we know about Mahomes. He's a big favorite.

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Speaker 1: My concern with taking the Carolina side is that Kansas

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Speaker 1: City just wants to run up the middle basically and

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Speaker 1: just move the chains on you and their top ten

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Speaker 1: at that and they do that about three forced their

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Speaker 1: run plays. Panther just can't stop their run. So I'm

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Speaker 1: kind of staying away from that game. Do you like

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Speaker 1: either side here?

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Speaker 2: I'll give you a stat I used on the favorites

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Speaker 2: this morning because I just think it shows what which

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Speaker 2: way this Kansas City game will go. So Mahomes has

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Speaker 2: started forty four games as a road favorite. When the

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Speaker 2: home team scores less than twenty, he's elevenho to two

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Speaker 2: against the spread. As a rower favorite when they score

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Speaker 2: twenty or more, he is nine and twenty two against

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Speaker 2: His threat this is all just about Carolina's team total. Basically, like,

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Speaker 2: can brch Young find a way to get three touchdowns

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Speaker 2: or seventeen points area in this one? Or is he

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Speaker 2: gonna put up a nine spot in case he's gonna

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Speaker 2: run it up the middle and kind of go their

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Speaker 2: merrily way. To my opinion, it's a stay away. I

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Speaker 2: kind of like the Washington one better, even though this

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Speaker 2: is Washington's biggest favorite versus Dallas since two thousand. I

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Speaker 2: do think the injuries on the Dallas side. I know

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Speaker 2: they've had the Zach Martin, the Jake Ferguson, Geien's had

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Speaker 2: a problem Tyler Smith. They have a lot of injuries

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Speaker 2: entering this one and things haven't exactly looked great. Lost

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Speaker 2: five straight straight up and against the spread. So I

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Speaker 2: would lean Washington either way.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that makes sense. And the one more

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Speaker 1: double digit favorite to come next week. Just a little

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Speaker 1: teaser when we get to the look ahead, I will

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Speaker 1: be backing another one there.

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Speaker 2: Oh woof, all right, we'll get to that one. Okay,

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Speaker 2: next one, let's go quick here. We're gonna talk about

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Speaker 2: awards for a second because I know definitely your special

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Speaker 2: But right now, Josh Allen's the favorite for MVP, Saquon

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Speaker 2: Offensive Player of the Year, TJ Watt Defensive Player of

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Speaker 2: the Year, Jayden Daniels Offensive Rookie the Year, and Jared

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Speaker 2: Versus Defensive Rookie the Year. So my question to you

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Speaker 2: is do you back any of these? Is there a

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Speaker 2: fun parlay to do in the favorites? Is there a

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Speaker 2: long shot? What's your overall thought process going in right now?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a tough spot on Wars. Nothing really leaps

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Speaker 1: off the page for me here. I think I don't

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Speaker 1: mind if you want to do the Rookie of the

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Speaker 1: Year favorites parlay. Just play Jayden and Versu basically together.

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Speaker 1: Is about Ivan Ods just slightly in the minus there.

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Speaker 1: I think that looks about right to me. Typically Rookie

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Speaker 1: of the Year tends to go to one of the

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Speaker 1: top like three picks at the position offense or defense,

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Speaker 1: and so that's what both those guys are. They got

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Speaker 1: the name, brand recognition, they got the lead, they got

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Speaker 1: the minus ods right now and the numbers are there.

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Speaker 1: It's just hard for me to see somebody closing. I

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Speaker 1: don't buy the bow nixt thing on Jayde Daniels and

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Speaker 1: defensive Rookie of the Year. I don't know like this

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Speaker 1: versus been really good by the metrics, Like all the

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Speaker 1: nerds are talking about him on the podcast I listened to.

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Speaker 1: So he's great, but the stats, the sacks and everything

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Speaker 1: aren't quite there. I think you probably get the job done.

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Speaker 1: The two names I'd be looking to fade a little

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Speaker 1: bit here sakuon offensive player there. I don't think he's

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Speaker 1: even the right favor right now. I think he should be.

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Speaker 1: Dereck Henry still as the favorite, and I still think

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Speaker 1: Jamar Chase is closing hard. He leads all the receiving categories.

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Speaker 1: I think Henry and Chase both have a chance to

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Speaker 1: get the you know, the triple crown the attempts and

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Speaker 1: or receptions and Chase's case en yards and touchdowns. Sakuan

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Speaker 1: got Baltimore and Pittsburgh in the next month, and the

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Speaker 1: main problem with him he doesn't get those touchdowns always

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Speaker 1: because Jalen Hurts is stealing at the goal line. So

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Speaker 1: I don't know that he would be third for me.

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Speaker 1: I do think it's probably one of those three, And

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Speaker 1: I'm curious what you think about MVP. I do have

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Speaker 1: a long shot. I came up with but where are

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Speaker 1: you out on these awards here?

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Speaker 2: Okay, so let's start with Defensive Rookie of the Year.

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Speaker 2: And these are going to be both a little bit

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Speaker 2: of a dark throws, but I think that's what kind

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Speaker 2: of makes this fun. I still think Law two from

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Speaker 2: the Colts has a shot here. He's got three sacks,

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Speaker 2: he's two backup Verse and Fist, and obviously they're on

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Speaker 2: the same team, so at some point could be a

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Speaker 2: situation where they take votes away from each other. Maybe not,

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Speaker 2: but I do think lat two has a chance here.

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Speaker 2: He's second in QB, hits behind Verse, second in pass rush,

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Speaker 2: snaps behind Verse, so he's on the field all the time.

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Speaker 2: And I do think, and I know we've talked about

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Speaker 2: this a few times Colts Lions, I think there's an

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Speaker 2: opportunity this weekend with a lot of people paying attention

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Speaker 2: to that game, if he got to goff once or twice,

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Speaker 2: you know, maybe there's a fumble of some sorts. I

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Speaker 2: think Indy stays in the game shockingly enough. That's just

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Speaker 2: my opinion. So I think a lot too offers some value.

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Speaker 2: And the other one I'll talk about Defensive Player of

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Speaker 2: the Year. TJ. Wat's the rightful favorite. I think you

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Speaker 2: can talk about different people who have chances to get

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Speaker 2: up there. I think one guy that I'm interested in

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Speaker 2: is Kirby from the Lions, so I want him to

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Speaker 2: win the award. But obviously safeties have a very difficult

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Speaker 2: chance of doing this. But here's the lineup that the

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Speaker 2: Lions have coming up, Indy Chicago, Green Bay, Buffalo, Chicago.

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Speaker 2: That is a lot of potential interceptions for a guy

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Speaker 2: who already leads the league in the category. He is

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Speaker 2: a top coverage grade on PFF two, so not only

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Speaker 2: is he getting picks, but he's doing a great job,

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Speaker 2: and you know after that stretch he could have ten

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Speaker 2: plus interceptions. I just think right now, if I'm looking,

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Speaker 2: let's see, he is thirty between thirty and thirty five

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Speaker 2: to one to win the award. So those are my

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Speaker 2: two long shots. The issue with MVP when I was

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Speaker 2: going through that market, I want a primetime spot to

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Speaker 2: kind of help out at this point in the season,

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Speaker 2: Like I want them to be on Sunday Night Football,

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Speaker 2: throw four touchdowns. Obviously not lose the game like Burrow,

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Speaker 2: but win the game and look good. I kind of

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Speaker 2: wanted Jayden Daniels, But again, he doesn't have enough of

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Speaker 2: the counting stats from a passing touchdown point of view

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Speaker 2: my opinion, to win the award, and he also doesn't

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Speaker 2: have a primetime spot. They're basically outside the window the

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Speaker 2: entire rest of the year. So would he need to

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Speaker 2: win out would you know what would be the circumstance

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Speaker 2: where he would float to the top there and obviously

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Speaker 2: fifth easiest schedule in a rookie narrative, so if he

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Speaker 2: got close, maybe he would get a bump. But other

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Speaker 2: than that, it's hard to really find, in my opinion

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Speaker 2: a long shot unless you want to go back to

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Speaker 2: like Burrow. But they've just got to keep winning games,

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Speaker 2: and that goes back to your chase bet, so maybe

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Speaker 2: there's an opportunity there.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. So actually on a similar page here as far

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Speaker 1: as looking for the primetime spot. So I'm not sold

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Speaker 1: that this is just Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. Lamar's

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Speaker 1: got four loss already, probably gonna lose again at some point.

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Speaker 1: You gotta be the one or two seed to get

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Speaker 1: this award. Baltimore is in big trouble now to be

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Speaker 1: able to do that. Josh Allen, the rightful favor would

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Speaker 1: win if it was today, just had the Heisman moment

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Speaker 1: be the Chiefs. That's gonna fade. That's going to fade,

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Speaker 1: you know, six weeks from now and we're gonna look

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Speaker 1: back at the stats and be like, oh, you know,

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Speaker 1: he had like one passing touchdown, Like was it really that? Like, No,

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Speaker 1: it was a great game. We know right now how

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Speaker 1: good it was. Our minds forget. Alan is going to

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Speaker 1: have a bad game. Sometimes he's gonna some more interceptions.

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Speaker 1: That's what he does with his game. He's gonna have

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Speaker 1: great moments, but some bad moments. I want a sleeper.

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Speaker 1: Here's the name I came up with. This is a

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Speaker 1: spot I had circle before the season. He is not

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Speaker 1: in the running right now. This is a long shot.

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Speaker 1: Jordan Love sixty to one. And here's why I want

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Speaker 1: the primetime spot like you. Here's the schedule. Forty nine

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Speaker 1: Ers This week, Sunday afternoon Game of the week, national television.

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Speaker 1: Everybody's watching the Packers Niners, this kind of elimination game.

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Speaker 1: The week after that, Miami on TV, then at Detroit,

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Speaker 1: huge game Thursday night on TV or at least Amazon Prime.

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Speaker 1: Then Seattle, then the Saints both TV five games in

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Speaker 1: a row. Right now, the Packers are scheduled on television

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Speaker 1: and in national TV spot. Everyone will be watching Jordan Love.

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Speaker 1: Then the game after that's at Minnesota, which probably flexes

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Speaker 1: into a big TV spot if Love is playing well

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Speaker 1: and the Packers are winning these games. He averaged his

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Speaker 1: first five games when healthy, three touchdowns a game. He's

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Speaker 1: falling off a lot the last two games. He leads

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Speaker 1: the league interceptions. I know he missed two games. There's

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Speaker 1: a lot of reasons he's not the MVP. It's why

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Speaker 1: sixty to one. However, last five or last six games

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Speaker 1: half the season. Now, Jordan Love is top five an

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Speaker 1: EPA plus CPOE and that is one of the best indicators,

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Speaker 1: and we saw how well he closed last season. He's

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Speaker 1: healthy coming out of the bye week two weeks ago.

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Speaker 1: I think it's an extreme long shot. I just don't

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Speaker 1: think it's sixty to one. The runway is there, and

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Speaker 1: there's enough touchdowns, and it's the Packers and they're they're

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Speaker 1: in the running to possibly steal a division if they

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Speaker 1: win that Detroit game and get into the mix. I

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Speaker 1: don't think it's going to happen. But if I'm looking

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Speaker 1: for a long shot. I need a runway. I think

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Speaker 1: Jordan Love has a path to at least get into contention.

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Speaker 1: What do you think about him?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, sixty to one. It's interesting. I mean, listen, he

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Speaker 2: has two prime time in the middle. Everyone watching games

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Speaker 2: with San Francisco and Miami to defense that can be beat.

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Speaker 2: He's getting them both at home. He just has to

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Speaker 2: go a game or two without throwing a pick. He's

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Speaker 2: starting to pick in every single game this year. So

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Speaker 2: it's not even the fact that he is tied for

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Speaker 2: the league lead, but he's just he doesn't have a

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Speaker 2: clean sheet on the schedule. So yeah, I looked at

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Speaker 2: Love and almost had to say no because it just

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Speaker 2: that many interceptions. I don't know how that guy gets

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Speaker 2: the award. But you're right, it's sixty to one. Maybe

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Speaker 2: it should be a tad shorter, and if he goes

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Speaker 2: on a little bit of a run here I can

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Speaker 2: get it. But all right, interesting enough, Let's go through

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Speaker 2: a few more topics before we get into your best bets.

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Speaker 2: So right now, Miami, Cincinnati, Chicago, and Tampa Bay are

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Speaker 2: four teams just below five hundred. I want us to

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Speaker 2: try to pick which one you think has the best

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Speaker 2: chance currently to make the playoffs. You could go first,

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Speaker 2: but I think we might be on the same page here.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, So I think it's two of the four that

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Speaker 1: you at least can consider here. I don't think it's Chicago,

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Speaker 1: you don't want an NFC a wild card. And I

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Speaker 1: don't think it's Miami. They're just a little too far

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Speaker 1: back with a tough schedule. So Tampa Bay you and

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Speaker 1: I toddled this last week. I like the box specific

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Speaker 1: because they don't trust the Falcons. Still, I think they

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Speaker 1: have the best path of these four teams. They don't

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Speaker 1: have to get the wild card. They just got to

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Speaker 1: catch the Falcons, and the Falcons might catch them the

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Speaker 1: wrong way the way they've been playing lately. We've got

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Speaker 1: Tampa seven to one to win the division last week.

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Speaker 1: I don't think you play the make playoff odds. If

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Speaker 1: they make it, it's because they got in on the

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Speaker 1: division here still four to one. I think there's some

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Speaker 1: value there. Their schedule next three games, Giants, Panthers, Raiders.

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Speaker 1: Those are three teams that all bench to their opening

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Speaker 1: day quarterback. That Tampa gets up next. They still play

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Speaker 1: after that the Cowboys with no Dak They play the Panthers,

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Speaker 1: they play the Saints. That is some very winnable games.

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Speaker 1: And you know the Falcons have a soft schedule too,

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Speaker 1: But the Falcons are not a lot better than the Buccaneers.

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Speaker 1: As far as the other one, Cincinnati, I think that

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Speaker 1: Cincinnati the way to play them as not necessarily make

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Speaker 1: the playoffs. But I do think they're over seven and

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Speaker 1: a half win total is a pretty good number. Now

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Speaker 1: it's juiced around minus one fifty, but they've got games

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Speaker 1: against Cowboy, Titans and Browns. They're much better than those teams.

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Speaker 1: They're four and seven. If they win those three, we're

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Speaker 1: up to seven wins. We only need one more win

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Speaker 1: between two Pittsburgh games and a Denver game that like

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Speaker 1: they should compete in and have a good chance to

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Speaker 1: win at least one of those. So I think that's

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Speaker 1: a good way to play it. I think the hole

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Speaker 1: to get to the playoffs might be too big at

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Speaker 1: this point. I might rather play them week to week

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Speaker 1: than by the playoff number and just play my spots.

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Speaker 1: But I'd say Tampa. And since the if it's gonna happen,

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Speaker 1: which team stands out for you?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we're on the same page. Tampa's gonna win but

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Speaker 2: not cover in New York this week, and I've already

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Speaker 2: talked myself into that as de Veto's gonna find a

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Speaker 2: way to get into that, into the backside there. But

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Speaker 2: the pick I think is probably Cincinnati just right now.

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Speaker 2: They just have a really good opportunity. So they face

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Speaker 2: Denver in week seventeen, who they really could get a

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Speaker 2: game and a half on at that point in the

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Speaker 2: head to head. Now, Miami has lost to Indy and

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Speaker 2: doesn't play Denver, and Denver plays Indie and Cincinnati. So

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Speaker 2: even with Denver, who is two and four against the AFC,

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Speaker 2: which really matters, they could fall apart and lose that

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Speaker 2: spot very easily, while Cincinnati at two and five or

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Speaker 2: CFC would love that head to head advantage. So I

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Speaker 2: do think there's an opportunity there for Cincinnati, and I

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Speaker 2: think Cincinnati and Tampa is the right answer. All right,

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Speaker 2: let's keep moving here, So let's talk divisions for a second.

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Speaker 2: AFC North NFC West, the only two divisions right now

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Speaker 2: that our leader is under minus three hundred, So basically

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Speaker 2: in the mix, what is your thought? Is there an

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Speaker 2: angle at any team to take in those two divisions?

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Speaker 1: So I know we're both on one team in the

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Speaker 1: nfcu WES, So I'm gonna let you make the case

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Speaker 1: for that team because I'll talk about them a little

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Speaker 1: bit more later. But I think in the AFC North

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Speaker 1: Baltimore Ravens, I think you still have to like them

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Speaker 1: in the division. I use FtM model a lot. They have.

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Speaker 1: The Ravens still almost fifty to fifty to win the division,

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Speaker 1: even though they're now two games back of the Steelers

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Speaker 1: with having lost the type break, Pittsburgh still has all

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Speaker 1: the rest of the division games left. I'm not necessary

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Speaker 1: sold on Pittsburgh yet. That was the voodoo Mike Tomlins

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Speaker 1: spot Baltimore is plus one sixty to win the division.

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Speaker 1: I would actually not play the division odds. I'd play

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Speaker 1: the over. Eleven and a half is at plus one fifty,

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Speaker 1: so it's basically the same price. But I think I

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Speaker 1: can get to twelve wins and not win the division

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Speaker 1: still if the Steelers keep winning games, I don't need

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Speaker 1: the ten cents there. I'd rather just take the twelve.

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Speaker 1: Like on the flip side, am I going to win

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Speaker 1: this division with eleven games and go under big at

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Speaker 1: the division? I don't think so. Pittsburgh's that eight wins already,

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Speaker 1: like somebody's gonna keep winning games there, So I think Baltimore,

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Speaker 1: then one other one. You said, you know, the other

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Speaker 1: six are big division leaders. I do an article out

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Speaker 1: this week. You can read it Actionnework dot Com. Lions

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Speaker 1: are minus four hundred. I think that number is actually

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Speaker 1: a little short because Minnesota and Green Bay a right there.

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Speaker 1: That's eighty percent implied. They're more like ninety ninety five percent.

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Speaker 1: So not really a thing that I do a lot

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Speaker 1: of times betting minus four hundred. But we're only like

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Speaker 1: maybe a month away from cashing that. If the Lions

347
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Speaker 1: keep on playing, and that's a twenty five percent ROI

348
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Speaker 1: you could do worse things with your money for a month.

349
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Speaker 1: In fact, you could put the unit that you're gonna win,

350
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Speaker 1: like beat four to win one, put the one unit

351
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Speaker 1: on the four to one Lion super Bowl ticket, and

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Speaker 1: you kind of just get like a little bit of

353
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Speaker 1: a free roll on what looks like the one seed

354
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Speaker 1: probably an NFC championship, and you can go from there

355
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Speaker 1: at plus four hundred. So I think you get creative

356
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Speaker 1: with these division leaders also. But the one I like

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Speaker 1: best is what I think you're gonna talk about, so

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Speaker 1: I'll let you talk about the UNFC West.

359
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Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't think people thought they'd tune in to

360
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Speaker 2: get a minus four hundred from Brandon. Not his style,

361
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Speaker 2: but I think he's I think he's right though, and

362
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Speaker 2: I do think it's a good play right now. But

363
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Speaker 2: my two I had two opinions here. I wanted to

364
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Speaker 2: take Cincinnati at one hundred and twenty to one, but

365
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Speaker 2: it's impossible. So there's just no way they're gonna win

366
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Speaker 2: enough games to get there, So I'll throw away that division.

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Speaker 2: And yeah, what you're talking about is Seattle. So Arizona

368
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Speaker 2: already beat San Francisco and the Rams, but they have

369
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Speaker 2: two games left against Seattle, which I do believe is

370
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Speaker 2: an upper tunity for the division there. Seattle is already

371
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Speaker 2: split with San Francisco and they're zero to one with

372
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Speaker 2: the Rams, which they could split as well. Week eighteen

373
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Speaker 2: in LA. Also, this is Seattle is also a bet

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Speaker 2: on this weekend pretty much as well. I mean, the

375
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Speaker 2: plays on the division and the play on this weekend

376
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Speaker 2: is kind of synonymous. And to me, Arizona does have

377
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Speaker 2: an advantage. They still have New England and Carolina on

378
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Speaker 2: the schedule, But I do believe there is room there

379
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Speaker 2: for Seattle to win the division. So I know you

380
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Speaker 2: like it. I think it's the right side, and I

381
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Speaker 2: think it was probably a better bet before San Francisco.

382
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Speaker 2: But I think it's okay.

383
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Speaker 1: Yeah, well, I think if you just look at the schedule,

384
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Speaker 1: just these next two weeks, Seattle home against Arizona. I'm

385
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Speaker 1: on Seattle. We'll get to that in a little bet.

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Speaker 1: So Seattle wins, they tie Arizona, who's one game up

387
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Speaker 1: right now with the type reak because they haven't played. Yeah,

388
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Speaker 1: so Seattle takes the head to head to lead on Arizona.

389
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Speaker 1: I'm already fading the Rams on the net against the Eagles.

390
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Speaker 1: So they stay a game back. The Niners are at

391
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Speaker 1: Green Bay. We'll see what happens with them. They're at

392
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Speaker 1: Buffalo next week. Got to assume the Niners lose one

393
00:18:03,400 --> 00:18:06,480
Speaker 1: of those games. Arizona goes to Minnesota next week, they

394
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Speaker 1: could lose another game. There is a plausible world where

395
00:18:10,119 --> 00:18:13,400
Speaker 1: Seattle beats Arizona this week, wins next week that will

396
00:18:13,440 --> 00:18:16,360
Speaker 1: be coming up again soon, and is a full one

397
00:18:16,440 --> 00:18:20,440
Speaker 1: game lead on the division one week from now. We're

398
00:18:20,560 --> 00:18:26,200
Speaker 1: right there. From very obvious possible outcomes leaving Seattle the leader,

399
00:18:26,240 --> 00:18:28,200
Speaker 1: and then you can still hedge. You've got a six

400
00:18:28,280 --> 00:18:30,879
Speaker 1: to one now on the division leader, and you can

401
00:18:30,880 --> 00:18:32,600
Speaker 1: add a different team if you want to like play

402
00:18:32,600 --> 00:18:34,840
Speaker 1: out your portfolio a little bet. So I think it's

403
00:18:34,840 --> 00:18:36,880
Speaker 1: just the right ticket to buy right now for Seattle.

404
00:18:37,520 --> 00:18:39,440
Speaker 2: All right, time to bed Gino at home. I guess,

405
00:18:39,520 --> 00:18:41,679
Speaker 2: all right, last one Before we get into best bets,

406
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Speaker 2: I just want to talk about updated win totals if

407
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Speaker 2: you have something that you're interested in, And for me personally,

408
00:18:47,359 --> 00:18:49,280
Speaker 2: when I look at in season win totals, I look

409
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Speaker 2: at the week ahead, which usually has the most impact

410
00:18:52,080 --> 00:18:55,040
Speaker 2: on the current market, home road left, next four and

411
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Speaker 2: remaining strength to schedule. So those are kind of things

412
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Speaker 2: that I tend to look at. But where were you here? Yeah?

413
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Speaker 1: I mentioned a couple already. I mentioned the Ravens over

414
00:19:02,920 --> 00:19:05,360
Speaker 1: and the Bengals over. I think those are both good plays.

415
00:19:05,520 --> 00:19:07,440
Speaker 1: I don't think I mentioned it, but the Tampa over

416
00:19:07,520 --> 00:19:09,440
Speaker 1: also over eight and a half is a good angle,

417
00:19:09,480 --> 00:19:12,760
Speaker 1: even if they don't quite catch Atlanta Dallan's plus money.

418
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Speaker 1: The one I hadn't mentioned is Washington. I also like

419
00:19:15,640 --> 00:19:18,560
Speaker 1: they're over here. We talked about that game already. You know,

420
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Speaker 1: they're big favorites this weekend, they're big favorites next weekend

421
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Speaker 1: against the Titans. They're already nine and they're already seven

422
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Speaker 1: and four. So you win those two games as big favorites,

423
00:19:27,040 --> 00:19:29,359
Speaker 1: you get to nine and four. We need twelve wins

424
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Speaker 1: to go over. So after that they have a bye

425
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Speaker 1: a week then they still have the Eagles game left,

426
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Speaker 1: but they still have another Saints game and a Cowboys game,

427
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Speaker 1: and those are the only two road games left on

428
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Speaker 1: their entire schedule. The Dallas game is week eighteen. Dallas

429
00:19:42,280 --> 00:19:45,240
Speaker 1: gonna like want to lose that game by then to

430
00:19:45,240 --> 00:19:48,800
Speaker 1: get a better draft pick. So in Washington probably is

431
00:19:48,800 --> 00:19:51,520
Speaker 1: coasting in the playoffs at that point, so probably like

432
00:19:51,560 --> 00:19:54,280
Speaker 1: a dead rubber sort of game. But every game left

433
00:19:54,320 --> 00:19:56,720
Speaker 1: is winnable. I think there's pretty easy pivots out of

434
00:19:56,760 --> 00:19:58,960
Speaker 1: if you don't like it. So I think Washington over

435
00:19:58,960 --> 00:20:00,680
Speaker 1: eleven and a half is a pretty looking back.

436
00:20:01,359 --> 00:20:03,480
Speaker 2: I like that Washington bet. The only ones I was

437
00:20:03,520 --> 00:20:07,800
Speaker 2: looking at were two were luck angles from our Nick

438
00:20:07,840 --> 00:20:11,399
Speaker 2: Giffen who works here. Under eleven and a half Steelers,

439
00:20:11,800 --> 00:20:14,480
Speaker 2: they're the third luckiest team so far this season. The

440
00:20:14,520 --> 00:20:17,120
Speaker 2: other one was Chargers under ten and a half, which

441
00:20:17,119 --> 00:20:19,919
Speaker 2: is plus one thirty. They're the fourth luckiest team and

442
00:20:19,960 --> 00:20:22,680
Speaker 2: they've got the Ravens this week, so maybe a tough situation.

443
00:20:22,800 --> 00:20:25,199
Speaker 2: The last one for me was Jets under five and

444
00:20:25,200 --> 00:20:27,320
Speaker 2: a half. I'm still trying to figure out how they

445
00:20:27,359 --> 00:20:30,400
Speaker 2: get to six wins when you've still got Seattle at

446
00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:33,880
Speaker 2: home at Miami coming up after the bye, which could

447
00:20:33,880 --> 00:20:35,879
Speaker 2: be Ohing two and Gino Smith going back to New

448
00:20:35,960 --> 00:20:39,399
Speaker 2: York with some revenge, and then at Jacksonville, Like, are

449
00:20:39,440 --> 00:20:41,960
Speaker 2: we even sure that to win for the Jets right now?

450
00:20:42,160 --> 00:20:45,080
Speaker 2: Given their status and rams Buffalo Miami to end of

451
00:20:45,080 --> 00:20:47,399
Speaker 2: the year, It's not easy. So I kind of like

452
00:20:47,480 --> 00:20:50,359
Speaker 2: Jets under five and a half. But let's move forward here.

453
00:20:50,400 --> 00:20:53,320
Speaker 2: Before we move on, a quick announcement, Action Network is

454
00:20:53,400 --> 00:20:56,919
Speaker 2: running back our annual Black Friday sale, offering our best

455
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456
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457
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458
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459
00:21:10,160 --> 00:21:13,280
Speaker 2: to all the picks, all the projections from Brandon Anderson

460
00:21:13,640 --> 00:21:16,240
Speaker 2: to Chris Raybond to a very own Stucky and our

461
00:21:16,240 --> 00:21:20,679
Speaker 2: whole Action Network team. That's Actionnetwork dot Com slash black

462
00:21:20,760 --> 00:21:24,160
Speaker 2: Friday for the best price of the year on Action Pro.

463
00:21:24,440 --> 00:21:27,000
Speaker 2: All right, let's get to best bets. Brandon Anderson, it

464
00:21:27,119 --> 00:21:29,800
Speaker 2: is your time to shine.

465
00:21:30,920 --> 00:21:36,160
Speaker 3: This is your best bet.

466
00:21:37,320 --> 00:21:40,200
Speaker 2: If you are up over six units last week thanks

467
00:21:40,240 --> 00:21:43,520
Speaker 2: to the Doug Peterson funeral Escalator called you the funeral Director.

468
00:21:43,600 --> 00:21:46,200
Speaker 2: Still going to give you that title. You're up over

469
00:21:46,240 --> 00:21:49,240
Speaker 2: twenty one units on the season, seventeen percent ROI not

470
00:21:49,480 --> 00:21:54,080
Speaker 2: too shabby. But listen, you're gonna start with Eagles Rams

471
00:21:54,280 --> 00:21:57,560
Speaker 2: Sunday Night football. Eagles are undefeated this year with aj

472
00:21:57,720 --> 00:22:01,080
Speaker 2: Brown seven to oho thirty points per game. You already

473
00:22:01,080 --> 00:22:02,679
Speaker 2: have a pick on the hot read, but you like

474
00:22:02,720 --> 00:22:04,200
Speaker 2: something else here, So what are you giving us?

475
00:22:04,359 --> 00:22:06,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, I've got the Eagles side on the hot read.

476
00:22:06,200 --> 00:22:08,159
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna be doing any sides today. I like

477
00:22:08,200 --> 00:22:10,720
Speaker 1: my favorite side that I already gave out, Ravens Eagles

478
00:22:10,760 --> 00:22:12,800
Speaker 1: some of those so check the hot reading the look ahead.

479
00:22:13,119 --> 00:22:15,600
Speaker 1: I'm gonna play the first half under here under twenty

480
00:22:15,600 --> 00:22:17,800
Speaker 1: four and a half, and some of the analysis is

481
00:22:17,840 --> 00:22:19,679
Speaker 1: gonna sound similar to the hot read here. I like

482
00:22:19,720 --> 00:22:22,879
Speaker 1: how Philadelphia matches up those rookie corners. You're hearing more

483
00:22:22,920 --> 00:22:26,080
Speaker 1: and more about them now, Quinjon Mitchell and Cooper de Gen.

484
00:22:26,560 --> 00:22:28,240
Speaker 1: I like how they match up. I like how they

485
00:22:28,280 --> 00:22:30,399
Speaker 1: match up with the two Rams receivers and in the

486
00:22:30,440 --> 00:22:33,040
Speaker 1: slot there. Since their bye week, the Eagles have the

487
00:22:33,200 --> 00:22:36,360
Speaker 1: number one defense that is Vic Fangio working his magic,

488
00:22:36,760 --> 00:22:39,720
Speaker 1: and in particular in this matchup, they're number one against

489
00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:43,679
Speaker 1: the deep ball. They force you to matriculate down the field.

490
00:22:44,119 --> 00:22:47,080
Speaker 1: That's not going well for Matthew Stafford. Stafford is making

491
00:22:47,119 --> 00:22:49,760
Speaker 1: too many mistakes this year, and I think kind of

492
00:22:49,800 --> 00:22:52,400
Speaker 1: taking away the deep stuff, forcing you to just work

493
00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:55,120
Speaker 1: your way down these ten and twelve play drives. That's

494
00:22:55,160 --> 00:22:57,000
Speaker 1: what the Eagles do because they're running the ball all

495
00:22:57,040 --> 00:22:59,720
Speaker 1: the time. Now, Stafford's making too many mistakes on the

496
00:22:59,720 --> 00:23:03,240
Speaker 1: flip side. We know about you mentioned verse and fifth.

497
00:23:03,320 --> 00:23:07,160
Speaker 1: The young front and the Rams defense has really impressed

498
00:23:07,160 --> 00:23:09,160
Speaker 1: me this year. Their team I called a bottom three

499
00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:12,480
Speaker 1: defense before the year. That defensive front has been really good.

500
00:23:12,840 --> 00:23:15,360
Speaker 1: Darius Williams came over from Jacksonville. He's been really good

501
00:23:15,359 --> 00:23:18,160
Speaker 1: at corner for them Rams. By the numbers last six

502
00:23:18,200 --> 00:23:20,959
Speaker 1: games are a fringe top ten defense. I think that's

503
00:23:21,000 --> 00:23:23,760
Speaker 1: a little rich for me, but that improvement helps the

504
00:23:23,840 --> 00:23:26,880
Speaker 1: under here. Now they're not great against the run. That's

505
00:23:27,000 --> 00:23:30,880
Speaker 1: not good against Philadelphia, but Philadelphia is the run heaviest

506
00:23:30,880 --> 00:23:33,480
Speaker 1: team the last six weeks, their bottom five neutral pace.

507
00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:36,520
Speaker 1: You're gonna run the ball, that's gonna slow the game down.

508
00:23:36,600 --> 00:23:39,760
Speaker 1: Go ahead, give me a fourteen play Philadelphia drive that

509
00:23:39,840 --> 00:23:42,080
Speaker 1: choos up like nine minutes of the clock. That gets

510
00:23:42,119 --> 00:23:44,480
Speaker 1: us to the under just time. So some of the

511
00:23:44,520 --> 00:23:48,400
Speaker 1: trends here, Monday night and Sunday night primetime road unders.

512
00:23:48,800 --> 00:23:53,280
Speaker 1: Primetime unders are sixty one percent over the last five years. Now,

513
00:23:53,320 --> 00:23:55,400
Speaker 1: that stat hasn't been as good this season, but as

514
00:23:55,440 --> 00:23:57,919
Speaker 1: you know, it has been on Sunday night eight in

515
00:23:58,000 --> 00:24:00,520
Speaker 1: three to the under still Sunday, and then we've talked

516
00:24:00,520 --> 00:24:04,600
Speaker 1: about this one before, Nick Siriani. Over at home seventy

517
00:24:04,640 --> 00:24:07,720
Speaker 1: percent under. On the road, it is sixty one percent

518
00:24:07,800 --> 00:24:11,040
Speaker 1: a start contrast, I don't mind the full game here,

519
00:24:11,119 --> 00:24:13,200
Speaker 1: but the last thing that took me to first half

520
00:24:13,840 --> 00:24:17,680
Speaker 1: Dvoa offense Eagles in the first half twenty seventh. We've

521
00:24:17,680 --> 00:24:19,560
Speaker 1: talked about how bad they've been in the first quarter

522
00:24:19,960 --> 00:24:24,320
Speaker 1: Rams first half twentieth second half Eagles jumped a third

523
00:24:24,520 --> 00:24:27,200
Speaker 1: by Dvoa and Rams into the top ten as well.

524
00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:30,400
Speaker 1: First half unders Rams are seven to three to the under.

525
00:24:30,440 --> 00:24:32,159
Speaker 1: Eagles are eight and two to the under in the

526
00:24:32,160 --> 00:24:35,560
Speaker 1: first half. So I will take the Sunday Night Eagles

527
00:24:35,680 --> 00:24:37,280
Speaker 1: Rams under twenty four and a half.

528
00:24:38,080 --> 00:24:40,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, key number two. Make sure you try to get

529
00:24:40,080 --> 00:24:42,720
Speaker 2: at least twenty four in that one, especially with a

530
00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:46,200
Speaker 2: lower scoring in the first half. All right, next game,

531
00:24:46,640 --> 00:24:49,639
Speaker 2: Minnesota at Chicago. You're going to be focusing on the

532
00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:51,600
Speaker 2: first quarter here, so I'm going to give you a

533
00:24:51,640 --> 00:24:54,160
Speaker 2: stat to kind of set you up this season. Minnesota

534
00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:57,320
Speaker 2: is eight and two against a first quarter spread, Chicago

535
00:24:57,680 --> 00:25:00,200
Speaker 2: two to eight against a first quarter set spread. I'm

536
00:25:00,200 --> 00:25:02,080
Speaker 2: assuming you're taking that one.

537
00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:04,879
Speaker 1: I am. I'm gonna play the Vikings first quarter, so

538
00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:08,679
Speaker 1: it's minus half a point at plus one thirty. Effectively,

539
00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:11,000
Speaker 1: that is a Vikings three way money line. You have

540
00:25:11,040 --> 00:25:12,720
Speaker 1: to look at the books make sure that you get

541
00:25:13,000 --> 00:25:15,280
Speaker 1: the three way money aligned. That means you lose if

542
00:25:15,320 --> 00:25:18,119
Speaker 1: you tie, hence the minus point five here. But I

543
00:25:18,280 --> 00:25:20,880
Speaker 1: like it so as a Vikings fan, I don't back

544
00:25:20,960 --> 00:25:23,639
Speaker 1: my Vikings a lot. You know this, This particular game

545
00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:27,359
Speaker 1: used to be nightmare fuel. Chicago had won sixteen out

546
00:25:27,359 --> 00:25:30,320
Speaker 1: of nineteen games home in Chicago against the Vikings. But

547
00:25:30,320 --> 00:25:32,879
Speaker 1: Minnesota's won four games in a row now, so I

548
00:25:32,880 --> 00:25:34,879
Speaker 1: think this new regime has kind of moved past that

549
00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:37,960
Speaker 1: a little bit. Minnesota is still number one defensively, run

550
00:25:37,960 --> 00:25:40,760
Speaker 1: and pass number one. I think Brian Floores and all

551
00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:43,400
Speaker 1: that pressure is just gonna give Caleb Williams his own

552
00:25:43,480 --> 00:25:46,040
Speaker 1: nightmares this week. That is not gonna go well for

553
00:25:46,119 --> 00:25:49,119
Speaker 1: a guy that has not done well with pressure, specifically

554
00:25:49,600 --> 00:25:53,000
Speaker 1: catering to his desire to hold the ball and try

555
00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:55,520
Speaker 1: to escape and do something. I don't feel like that's

556
00:25:55,560 --> 00:25:59,119
Speaker 1: gonna go that well. Here. Barry's defense has been worse

557
00:25:59,200 --> 00:26:02,720
Speaker 1: early bottom ten in the first half by DVA top

558
00:26:02,760 --> 00:26:06,119
Speaker 1: ten to second half. The Vikings offense a big thing.

559
00:26:06,280 --> 00:26:09,880
Speaker 1: Vikings fans love and love to hate. Kevin O'Connell's scripted

560
00:26:09,960 --> 00:26:12,600
Speaker 1: plays are bangers, like they get out to a hurry.

561
00:26:12,600 --> 00:26:15,440
Speaker 1: They're putting up offense right away. Minnesota is the number

562
00:26:15,480 --> 00:26:18,560
Speaker 1: two offense in the first quarter. Then the script runs

563
00:26:18,560 --> 00:26:20,639
Speaker 1: out and it doesn't go so well after that. That's fine.

564
00:26:20,680 --> 00:26:23,760
Speaker 1: We already cash our bet by that point hopefully. So yeah,

565
00:26:23,800 --> 00:26:26,920
Speaker 1: I didn't even have the ATS numbers on the teams here.

566
00:26:27,160 --> 00:26:29,280
Speaker 1: But here's what I found digging in far is in

567
00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:32,439
Speaker 1: the first quarter of this season, ten games scoreless. In

568
00:26:32,560 --> 00:26:35,480
Speaker 1: seven of the ten games, you score zero. We're gonna

569
00:26:35,480 --> 00:26:37,000
Speaker 1: be pretty good on our bet here. Now we just

570
00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:39,840
Speaker 1: need a point. They've scored one first quarter touchdown. They

571
00:26:39,880 --> 00:26:43,159
Speaker 1: have thirteen points in the first quarter the entire season.

572
00:26:43,600 --> 00:26:45,960
Speaker 1: They're oh seven and three straight up. They have not

573
00:26:46,080 --> 00:26:49,720
Speaker 1: won a first quarter all season. The Vikings are eight

574
00:26:49,760 --> 00:26:51,600
Speaker 1: and one and one in the first quarter. In fact,

575
00:26:51,880 --> 00:26:54,320
Speaker 1: even in the two losses they won the first quarter,

576
00:26:54,640 --> 00:26:57,440
Speaker 1: Minnesota has ten touchdowns in ten first quarters this season.

577
00:26:57,480 --> 00:27:00,119
Speaker 1: They have scored in all but one. They have eight

578
00:27:00,280 --> 00:27:04,240
Speaker 1: two points on the season. So I like Minnesota to

579
00:27:04,359 --> 00:27:07,639
Speaker 1: get the plus one to thirty to win the first quarter. Again,

580
00:27:08,080 --> 00:27:11,080
Speaker 1: get that first quarter three way. The money line at

581
00:27:11,080 --> 00:27:13,160
Speaker 1: most books is like minus one twenty five, So you're

582
00:27:13,200 --> 00:27:16,879
Speaker 1: paying fifty five cents to not even win on a tie.

583
00:27:17,040 --> 00:27:18,879
Speaker 1: Just get your money back in a tie. That is

584
00:27:18,920 --> 00:27:20,800
Speaker 1: not the way I have bat things here, So I

585
00:27:20,840 --> 00:27:22,560
Speaker 1: just want to make sure you understand that part and

586
00:27:23,359 --> 00:27:26,000
Speaker 1: the way I do bet things here. Let's sprinkle a

587
00:27:26,040 --> 00:27:28,240
Speaker 1: little bit on minus six and a half in the

588
00:27:28,280 --> 00:27:31,359
Speaker 1: first quarter. That's plus three fifty. We'll take a seven

589
00:27:31,359 --> 00:27:34,080
Speaker 1: to nothing win. The Vikings have hit that line half

590
00:27:34,119 --> 00:27:36,639
Speaker 1: of their games this season. They're averaging a first quarter

591
00:27:36,720 --> 00:27:39,600
Speaker 1: margin of victory by six point two. So right about

592
00:27:39,600 --> 00:27:42,919
Speaker 1: that number. So Vikings first quarter three way at plus

593
00:27:43,000 --> 00:27:44,439
Speaker 1: one thirty at the Bears.

594
00:27:44,920 --> 00:27:46,639
Speaker 2: I like it. And we we were talking about this

595
00:27:46,760 --> 00:27:49,760
Speaker 2: earlier about Caleb Sacks, and this stat is just crazy

596
00:27:49,800 --> 00:27:51,280
Speaker 2: and stands out to me. When he gets sacked four

597
00:27:51,320 --> 00:27:54,160
Speaker 2: plus times, they're zero and four this year, scoring forty

598
00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:56,760
Speaker 2: one points in four games three or less. They're four

599
00:27:56,800 --> 00:27:59,760
Speaker 2: and two, averaging twenty six point per game, twenty plus

600
00:27:59,760 --> 00:28:02,159
Speaker 2: points in five of those six games. It's just a

601
00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:04,280
Speaker 2: matter of Flores's defense can get to him and it's

602
00:28:04,320 --> 00:28:07,199
Speaker 2: gonna and in the past he has. So that is

603
00:28:07,240 --> 00:28:09,720
Speaker 2: definitely something and to be aware of. And that is

604
00:28:09,760 --> 00:28:12,760
Speaker 2: good on that end. All Right, Next bet here Denver

605
00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:16,040
Speaker 2: and Vegas. So the Broncos haven't beaten the Raiders in

606
00:28:16,119 --> 00:28:20,280
Speaker 2: Oakland or Vegas since October of twenty fifteen, behind Peyton Manning.

607
00:28:20,440 --> 00:28:22,719
Speaker 2: So what is your angle on this one?

608
00:28:23,400 --> 00:28:25,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, I got a trio of first quarter bets here,

609
00:28:25,560 --> 00:28:28,480
Speaker 1: and I'm backing those Raiders in the first quarter at home.

610
00:28:28,520 --> 00:28:31,199
Speaker 1: I wanted to do more. I don't mind looking at

611
00:28:31,240 --> 00:28:33,000
Speaker 1: a whole game money line here. I kind of think

612
00:28:33,040 --> 00:28:35,400
Speaker 1: the Broncos are a bit at their peak price right now.

613
00:28:35,400 --> 00:28:37,520
Speaker 1: I could see the Raiders getting this one, but I'm

614
00:28:37,520 --> 00:28:39,040
Speaker 1: gonna just do the same bet I just did for

615
00:28:39,080 --> 00:28:42,640
Speaker 1: Minnesota Raiders first quarter the three way money line. This

616
00:28:42,680 --> 00:28:45,280
Speaker 1: one's plus two fifteen, so we need the Raiders to

617
00:28:45,360 --> 00:28:48,720
Speaker 1: win the first quarter outright. So yeah, as you mentioned,

618
00:28:49,080 --> 00:28:52,120
Speaker 1: Denver has not won here in Las Vegas or wherever

619
00:28:52,160 --> 00:28:55,440
Speaker 1: the Raiders are playing for a decade. Basically, they didn't

620
00:28:55,440 --> 00:28:58,360
Speaker 1: want anywhere. They beat them in October in Denver, but

621
00:28:58,360 --> 00:28:59,960
Speaker 1: the Raiders had the one eight games in a row

622
00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:02,719
Speaker 1: this rivalry before that, so I think this is a

623
00:29:02,720 --> 00:29:06,400
Speaker 1: good spot to bet against Denver after they played just

624
00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:08,920
Speaker 1: like the perfect matchup in Atlanta. We talked about, you know,

625
00:29:09,160 --> 00:29:12,800
Speaker 1: just no pass rush, Bonnicks just kind of shredding, you know,

626
00:29:12,840 --> 00:29:15,600
Speaker 1: a practice defense more or less, and this is a good,

627
00:29:15,720 --> 00:29:19,040
Speaker 1: obvious sort of let down spot, and in fact Denver's

628
00:29:19,080 --> 00:29:23,760
Speaker 1: defense they're passing offense. Sorry, Denver's offense is trending up.

629
00:29:24,120 --> 00:29:26,360
Speaker 1: That is the one metric that the Raiders are still

630
00:29:26,400 --> 00:29:28,280
Speaker 1: kind of okay at. There's a lot of bad metrics.

631
00:29:28,280 --> 00:29:30,840
Speaker 1: They've been betting a lot against the Raiders, but that's

632
00:29:30,880 --> 00:29:32,800
Speaker 1: the one thing they can hold a little bit. Denver's

633
00:29:32,800 --> 00:29:36,040
Speaker 1: defense obviously is a strength here. Denver's defense is better

634
00:29:36,040 --> 00:29:37,800
Speaker 1: than the second half. They're a little better with the lead,

635
00:29:38,120 --> 00:29:39,680
Speaker 1: but you got to get the lead first, and I

636
00:29:39,720 --> 00:29:42,200
Speaker 1: think that the Raiders can maybe get the lead early

637
00:29:42,200 --> 00:29:45,280
Speaker 1: and hang around. They're offul in the second half. They're

638
00:29:45,320 --> 00:29:49,240
Speaker 1: around average defensively early and again with a first quarter number,

639
00:29:49,560 --> 00:29:52,640
Speaker 1: they're nearly a top five offense in the first quarter. Why,

640
00:29:53,000 --> 00:29:55,960
Speaker 1: I have no ideas, Like I guess we're scripting plays

641
00:29:55,960 --> 00:29:58,400
Speaker 1: pretty well. That's the one thing. We just switched out

642
00:29:58,400 --> 00:30:00,200
Speaker 1: the offensive coordinator there too. But I thin I think

643
00:30:00,240 --> 00:30:02,960
Speaker 1: that the Raiders can hang early. In fact, I know

644
00:30:03,080 --> 00:30:05,840
Speaker 1: they can because the last time they played Denver a

645
00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:09,160
Speaker 1: month ago, they won ten nothing in the first quarter.

646
00:30:09,360 --> 00:30:11,960
Speaker 1: They lost the game by sixteen, but they won the

647
00:30:11,960 --> 00:30:14,520
Speaker 1: first quarter. They beat the Chargers in the first quarter too.

648
00:30:14,680 --> 00:30:18,800
Speaker 1: Denver has lost the first quarter five times already, and

649
00:30:18,960 --> 00:30:22,120
Speaker 1: finish tied three more times, so they've only actually won

650
00:30:22,160 --> 00:30:24,640
Speaker 1: the first quarter twice. They lost to the Raiders in

651
00:30:24,680 --> 00:30:26,360
Speaker 1: the first quarter. They lost to the Panthers in the

652
00:30:26,360 --> 00:30:28,920
Speaker 1: first quarter. They have been able to come back and

653
00:30:28,960 --> 00:30:31,920
Speaker 1: figure things out. But I'm playing the first quarter angle here.

654
00:30:32,000 --> 00:30:35,440
Speaker 1: So here's one tricky part here. I'm the Vikings. I

655
00:30:35,480 --> 00:30:37,360
Speaker 1: want nothing to do with the tie park. I just

656
00:30:37,400 --> 00:30:41,000
Speaker 1: want the three away with the Raiders. They finished tied

657
00:30:41,080 --> 00:30:43,440
Speaker 1: the end of the first quarter four times, the Broncoes

658
00:30:43,480 --> 00:30:46,120
Speaker 1: three times. That's pretty happy, Like that is a significant

659
00:30:46,160 --> 00:30:48,680
Speaker 1: amount here, and it is the first quarter. You get

660
00:30:48,720 --> 00:30:52,040
Speaker 1: like two three long drives quarters over still zero zero Like,

661
00:30:52,040 --> 00:30:54,800
Speaker 1: that's a pretty easy way to tie. So I don't

662
00:30:54,920 --> 00:30:57,680
Speaker 1: mind in this case if you want to play the

663
00:30:57,720 --> 00:31:01,680
Speaker 1: plus zero point five line, that's my one thirty. Now

664
00:31:01,720 --> 00:31:04,400
Speaker 1: a tie wins you the bet. Again, I don't want

665
00:31:04,440 --> 00:31:06,840
Speaker 1: the money line. Don't give me an option where the

666
00:31:06,880 --> 00:31:08,640
Speaker 1: tie just gets my money back. I don't want to

667
00:31:08,720 --> 00:31:11,080
Speaker 1: win stuff. Let's let's not get money back here. Let's

668
00:31:11,120 --> 00:31:13,920
Speaker 1: win our money back. So I don't mind that one.

669
00:31:13,960 --> 00:31:15,240
Speaker 1: I don't mind if you want to kind of split

670
00:31:15,280 --> 00:31:18,160
Speaker 1: the bet. The reason I'm going with the more aggressive

671
00:31:18,160 --> 00:31:20,080
Speaker 1: bet here is hi. I'm Brandon. We go with the

672
00:31:20,080 --> 00:31:23,040
Speaker 1: more aggressive bet here, but just from the math, if

673
00:31:23,040 --> 00:31:27,160
Speaker 1: you play the plus halfway point line, one unit wins

674
00:31:27,240 --> 00:31:30,200
Speaker 1: point seven to seven units. If you play my line

675
00:31:30,240 --> 00:31:32,560
Speaker 1: here the three way so that we lose the time

676
00:31:32,600 --> 00:31:35,840
Speaker 1: instead of winning it, one unit wins two point one five,

677
00:31:36,440 --> 00:31:40,160
Speaker 1: So almost triple the payout here. Basically, I don't have

678
00:31:40,240 --> 00:31:43,800
Speaker 1: to have the tie happening like something more like twenty

679
00:31:43,800 --> 00:31:45,960
Speaker 1: five thirty five percent of the time for that to happen,

680
00:31:46,320 --> 00:31:47,880
Speaker 1: and I think that's just a little too rich for me.

681
00:31:48,080 --> 00:31:52,840
Speaker 1: So Raiders first quarter, we're going first quarter bonanza this week.

682
00:31:52,880 --> 00:31:55,280
Speaker 1: We got one more to come, but plus ten three

683
00:31:55,360 --> 00:31:56,840
Speaker 1: way against the Broncos.

684
00:31:57,240 --> 00:32:00,440
Speaker 2: Get your winning and get out in terms of perception, Denver,

685
00:32:00,640 --> 00:32:02,800
Speaker 2: this is the crazy one, the look aheadline on this one.

686
00:32:02,920 --> 00:32:05,560
Speaker 2: Before the season, it would have been Vegas minus three.

687
00:32:05,680 --> 00:32:09,160
Speaker 2: So it's a nine point flip based off of how

688
00:32:09,240 --> 00:32:12,000
Speaker 2: Bo Nicks and Sean Payton's team has been playing lately,

689
00:32:12,120 --> 00:32:14,880
Speaker 2: but a wild one. Let's get to your final game here.

690
00:32:15,560 --> 00:32:19,840
Speaker 2: This line has flipped favorite and underdog about four times

691
00:32:20,360 --> 00:32:23,440
Speaker 2: since it opened. It is, of course, Arizona at Seattle.

692
00:32:23,600 --> 00:32:27,960
Speaker 2: Right now, as you're listening to this Arizona minus one,

693
00:32:28,080 --> 00:32:30,120
Speaker 2: but that could change in minutes. What do you got here, Brandon?

694
00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:32,040
Speaker 1: I know it flips like every time you look at it,

695
00:32:32,120 --> 00:32:33,760
Speaker 1: So I basically just thinking of this game as a

696
00:32:33,800 --> 00:32:37,120
Speaker 1: pick'm so I struggled here because I like Seattle on

697
00:32:37,240 --> 00:32:40,520
Speaker 1: the game, but I like Arizona early. So I'm gonna

698
00:32:40,520 --> 00:32:42,280
Speaker 1: give you a couple of parts here. I'll talk through them.

699
00:32:42,320 --> 00:32:44,440
Speaker 1: You can choose as you're listening to play which parts

700
00:32:44,480 --> 00:32:45,840
Speaker 1: you like, or play the whole thing, because you know

701
00:32:45,880 --> 00:32:49,240
Speaker 1: we're playing the whole thing too. So first bat, first quarter,

702
00:32:49,760 --> 00:32:52,720
Speaker 1: give me the Cardinals over three and a half points.

703
00:32:52,800 --> 00:32:54,960
Speaker 1: It's plus one oh five. So that's my first quarter

704
00:32:54,960 --> 00:32:56,840
Speaker 1: angle here. I wanted just the same bed as the

705
00:32:56,880 --> 00:32:59,280
Speaker 1: last two. The Cardinals have been looking good in the

706
00:32:59,280 --> 00:33:03,120
Speaker 1: first quarter, but Seattle's kind of hung around the ats

707
00:33:03,120 --> 00:33:05,240
Speaker 1: and straight ups have not been good. I do think

708
00:33:05,280 --> 00:33:06,920
Speaker 1: the Cardinals score here. I don't need to know if

709
00:33:06,920 --> 00:33:09,040
Speaker 1: Seattle scores early. In fact, I kind of want them

710
00:33:09,040 --> 00:33:11,280
Speaker 1: to for reasons we'll get to later. So this is

711
00:33:11,280 --> 00:33:13,440
Speaker 1: a big matchup, right. We talked about this earlier on

712
00:33:13,960 --> 00:33:16,680
Speaker 1: Arizona up a game in the division. Arizona's coming off

713
00:33:16,720 --> 00:33:19,760
Speaker 1: the bye a week now. The metrics say that Arizona's

714
00:33:19,800 --> 00:33:22,680
Speaker 1: defense is gaming pretty good lately. They're twelve by DVA

715
00:33:23,240 --> 00:33:27,120
Speaker 1: overall defensively and running in passing. I don't know that.

716
00:33:27,160 --> 00:33:29,520
Speaker 1: I like. This is my number thirty two defense by

717
00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:32,200
Speaker 1: talent on the field. So credit to what Nick Rollas

718
00:33:32,240 --> 00:33:34,400
Speaker 1: is doing there. This is not the twelfth best defense.

719
00:33:34,440 --> 00:33:36,520
Speaker 1: This is you just played Chicago and the Jets, who

720
00:33:36,680 --> 00:33:39,960
Speaker 1: sock right now? Offensively, any numbers are juiced a little bit.

721
00:33:40,560 --> 00:33:43,280
Speaker 1: I am more convinced of the offense. And that's why

722
00:33:43,400 --> 00:33:45,600
Speaker 1: I like the first quarter here. In fact, I've been

723
00:33:45,600 --> 00:33:48,959
Speaker 1: mentioning the first quarter DVA numbers. Arizona is the number

724
00:33:48,960 --> 00:33:52,520
Speaker 1: one first quarter offense on the season. Seattle is number

725
00:33:52,600 --> 00:33:55,360
Speaker 1: thirty two. So you have the best and the worst

726
00:33:55,360 --> 00:33:58,800
Speaker 1: offense playing each other in the first quarter. Cardinals have

727
00:33:59,000 --> 00:34:01,600
Speaker 1: scored at least a touch down seven of ten first

728
00:34:01,640 --> 00:34:04,719
Speaker 1: quarters on the season. So that's the scripted thing. And

729
00:34:04,760 --> 00:34:07,480
Speaker 1: now we're scripted off the buy. You have this big

730
00:34:07,520 --> 00:34:10,440
Speaker 1: game on the road you're prepping for. I think Arizona

731
00:34:10,520 --> 00:34:13,640
Speaker 1: scores early. So Arizona first quarter over three and a

732
00:34:13,680 --> 00:34:18,040
Speaker 1: half points plus one oh five. But I still like

733
00:34:18,120 --> 00:34:20,680
Speaker 1: Seattle on the game. I still like them to win

734
00:34:20,719 --> 00:34:25,040
Speaker 1: the game outright, and I actually think Scattle's defense, not Arizona,

735
00:34:25,200 --> 00:34:28,160
Speaker 1: is the sneaky good defense. Remember back in weeks four

736
00:34:28,239 --> 00:34:31,600
Speaker 1: through six, they had three games in eleven days, and

737
00:34:31,600 --> 00:34:33,960
Speaker 1: they're missing like half of their defenders too, because they've

738
00:34:33,960 --> 00:34:35,879
Speaker 1: got a whole bunch of injuries at just the wrong time.

739
00:34:36,320 --> 00:34:38,960
Speaker 1: If you exclude that three game window when things went

740
00:34:39,080 --> 00:34:42,360
Speaker 1: really badly, they're a top seven defense on the season,

741
00:34:42,719 --> 00:34:45,719
Speaker 1: Top eight against the pass and the run. Mike McDonald

742
00:34:45,719 --> 00:34:48,440
Speaker 1: when he was in Baltimore, his defenses would peak in

743
00:34:48,480 --> 00:34:51,120
Speaker 1: the second half as they're coming out there. We saw

744
00:34:51,120 --> 00:34:53,560
Speaker 1: them have a really good game against San fran last week,

745
00:34:53,920 --> 00:34:55,960
Speaker 1: and their defense played much better at home. So far

746
00:34:56,000 --> 00:34:58,279
Speaker 1: this season, I'm mostly top ten defense at home, even

747
00:34:58,280 --> 00:35:01,960
Speaker 1: with the whole season Cardinals defense way worse on the road.

748
00:35:01,960 --> 00:35:04,239
Speaker 1: They've been a top five home defense, they've been a

749
00:35:04,239 --> 00:35:07,359
Speaker 1: bottom ten road defense. So I like how it sets

750
00:35:07,440 --> 00:35:09,960
Speaker 1: up for Seattle. If you just want to play Seattle,

751
00:35:10,000 --> 00:35:12,600
Speaker 1: I think that's fine. If you want to live bet Seattle.

752
00:35:12,920 --> 00:35:15,680
Speaker 1: I can't tell you the number here because we're recording

753
00:35:15,680 --> 00:35:18,799
Speaker 1: this on Thursday, but if I'm right, Arizona takes the lead,

754
00:35:19,040 --> 00:35:20,839
Speaker 1: you can reduce your price on the money line, right,

755
00:35:20,840 --> 00:35:23,640
Speaker 1: So you could just do that, or you can play

756
00:35:23,760 --> 00:35:26,840
Speaker 1: both together. Arizona over the three and a half points

757
00:35:26,880 --> 00:35:29,400
Speaker 1: the bet we just said plus Seattle money line. Now

758
00:35:29,400 --> 00:35:32,000
Speaker 1: books have to factor in. We got negative correlation there,

759
00:35:32,239 --> 00:35:34,120
Speaker 1: so that one is a plus three to eighty there.

760
00:35:35,000 --> 00:35:37,000
Speaker 1: All right, Arizona can get a touch on the first quarter,

761
00:35:37,040 --> 00:35:38,880
Speaker 1: Seattle still whin. I'm fine with that. Like that's going

762
00:35:38,920 --> 00:35:41,200
Speaker 1: to happen plenty of times, So I like that one

763
00:35:41,640 --> 00:35:43,680
Speaker 1: if you want. You can even still add in Arizona

764
00:35:43,760 --> 00:35:46,120
Speaker 1: winning the first quarter, which they have a good chance

765
00:35:46,160 --> 00:35:48,400
Speaker 1: to do because they're scoring anyway now. Were at plus

766
00:35:48,400 --> 00:35:50,800
Speaker 1: seven to twenty five there, so I think that's a

767
00:35:50,800 --> 00:35:53,360
Speaker 1: good way to play it. And then again, if you

768
00:35:53,440 --> 00:35:55,759
Speaker 1: only play one thing on this game, I think the

769
00:35:55,880 --> 00:35:58,200
Speaker 1: real play is the one we said already Seattle division

770
00:35:58,239 --> 00:36:00,239
Speaker 1: of its plus six hundred because of the key we

771
00:36:00,320 --> 00:36:04,200
Speaker 1: laid out earlier. So pick the ones you like, put

772
00:36:04,239 --> 00:36:06,920
Speaker 1: them together, make your parlay if you want for this

773
00:36:07,120 --> 00:36:10,840
Speaker 1: back two parts, Arizona first quarter at least four points

774
00:36:11,120 --> 00:36:14,160
Speaker 1: and then Arizona three plus three point five points plus

775
00:36:14,239 --> 00:36:16,680
Speaker 1: the sable money line at three eighty. That's the beat.

776
00:36:17,400 --> 00:36:20,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was even I was messing around here at

777
00:36:20,400 --> 00:36:23,640
Speaker 2: a sportsbook trying to put those pieces together. Arizona first

778
00:36:23,719 --> 00:36:26,680
Speaker 2: quarter to win Seattle money line felt like a fun

779
00:36:26,760 --> 00:36:30,600
Speaker 2: anti correlation there in terms of expecting to comeback. I

780
00:36:30,680 --> 00:36:32,680
Speaker 2: even tried to toss and maybe Arizona plus seven and

781
00:36:32,760 --> 00:36:35,000
Speaker 2: a half as well, assuming maybe it gets like to

782
00:36:35,080 --> 00:36:38,399
Speaker 2: be a close game. Okay, those are your games. Let's

783
00:36:38,400 --> 00:36:40,840
Speaker 2: get to your props now, Funder.

784
00:36:40,960 --> 00:36:44,719
Speaker 1: See the lightning round Thunder.

785
00:36:45,840 --> 00:36:48,680
Speaker 2: We're gonna stay in the same game. So what's your

786
00:36:48,719 --> 00:36:51,000
Speaker 2: first prop? It is Seattle and Arizona.

787
00:36:51,320 --> 00:36:54,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm going with the Tyler Lockett over thirty six

788
00:36:54,080 --> 00:36:56,279
Speaker 1: and a half receiving yards. Now, the last three games

789
00:36:56,320 --> 00:36:58,640
Speaker 1: he only has six catches ninety one yards, So it

790
00:36:58,640 --> 00:37:01,160
Speaker 1: looks like he's fading. When you're thinking of the number,

791
00:37:01,160 --> 00:37:03,560
Speaker 1: is he's actually played his highest snap percent of the season.

792
00:37:03,600 --> 00:37:06,160
Speaker 1: I think the problem is DK Metcalf missed two of

793
00:37:06,200 --> 00:37:08,480
Speaker 1: those games. I think Lockett is kind of playing out

794
00:37:08,480 --> 00:37:11,320
Speaker 1: of position. So with DK back, I think it actually

795
00:37:11,400 --> 00:37:13,880
Speaker 1: is a better spot for Lockett. Zoom out to the

796
00:37:13,920 --> 00:37:16,759
Speaker 1: whole season, He's had forty five yards or more seven

797
00:37:16,840 --> 00:37:18,919
Speaker 1: of ten games, including one of these last three. Even

798
00:37:18,960 --> 00:37:21,320
Speaker 1: with this kind of weak stretch here, he's had sixty

799
00:37:21,360 --> 00:37:23,680
Speaker 1: yards or better than half of those games. So why

800
00:37:24,400 --> 00:37:26,920
Speaker 1: why this one caught Miya in the first place. Arizona's

801
00:37:26,920 --> 00:37:29,680
Speaker 1: bottom three by DVA against wide receiver three, which that's

802
00:37:29,719 --> 00:37:32,239
Speaker 1: definitely what Lockett is at this point. When the other

803
00:37:32,280 --> 00:37:35,160
Speaker 1: guys are healthy, they just don't enough guys to cover everyone.

804
00:37:35,280 --> 00:37:38,240
Speaker 1: So remember Arizona's defense worse on the road as well.

805
00:37:38,640 --> 00:37:40,880
Speaker 1: Over three six and a half yards for Tyler Lockett,

806
00:37:40,920 --> 00:37:42,440
Speaker 1: I think that's just a little too low. She'd be

807
00:37:42,560 --> 00:37:45,719
Speaker 1: like five ten yards higher. Sixty plus yards is three

808
00:37:45,800 --> 00:37:47,560
Speaker 1: to one. I think we'll put part of the bet

809
00:37:47,560 --> 00:37:49,560
Speaker 1: on there. He's hit that half of his games this season.

810
00:37:50,120 --> 00:37:52,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, especially if Arizona's up early and Seattle needs to

811
00:37:52,760 --> 00:37:54,319
Speaker 2: throw a little bit more to get back in the game.

812
00:37:54,760 --> 00:37:57,279
Speaker 2: Sounds good to me. All Right, your next game is

813
00:37:58,080 --> 00:38:02,320
Speaker 2: Minnesota Chicago, just to tease your bet. Minnesota has allowed

814
00:38:02,360 --> 00:38:06,280
Speaker 2: the tenth most completions this season, fourth most in the NFC,

815
00:38:06,320 --> 00:38:08,120
Speaker 2: which was a little surprising to me. He kind of

816
00:38:08,400 --> 00:38:09,960
Speaker 2: kind of leads to where you're going, So what are

817
00:38:09,960 --> 00:38:11,120
Speaker 2: you thinking here? Yeah?

818
00:38:11,160 --> 00:38:12,960
Speaker 1: I was surprised by that as well. I'm gonna play

819
00:38:13,000 --> 00:38:16,040
Speaker 1: Dj Moore over four and a half receptions, it's even odds,

820
00:38:16,080 --> 00:38:17,920
Speaker 1: and we're gonna take the escalator all the way to

821
00:38:17,960 --> 00:38:20,560
Speaker 1: the top. So a statu saw from fieldy eights at

822
00:38:20,680 --> 00:38:22,920
Speaker 1: ESPN's what caught my eye here. So we know that

823
00:38:22,960 --> 00:38:25,799
Speaker 1: the Bears switched to Thomas Brown, the new offensive coordinator. Right,

824
00:38:26,080 --> 00:38:29,080
Speaker 1: So here's what happened last week, the one game with

825
00:38:29,160 --> 00:38:32,080
Speaker 1: Thomas Brown. I don't know, tiny sample size. They three

826
00:38:32,040 --> 00:38:35,080
Speaker 1: to Dj Moore seven times. He cut all seven passes

827
00:38:35,120 --> 00:38:38,600
Speaker 1: and why is because his a dot was under a yard.

828
00:38:38,880 --> 00:38:42,040
Speaker 1: These are wide receiver screens. These are quick passes. Get

829
00:38:42,040 --> 00:38:44,600
Speaker 1: the ball to our speedy DJ Moore. Let him get

830
00:38:44,640 --> 00:38:46,560
Speaker 1: some yak. He had fifty six yards after the catch

831
00:38:46,640 --> 00:38:49,080
Speaker 1: last week. The whole rest of the season, the first

832
00:38:49,080 --> 00:38:52,560
Speaker 1: ten weeks, is a dot was over eight yards per

833
00:38:52,600 --> 00:38:54,839
Speaker 1: per target and he had one hundred and seventy six

834
00:38:55,080 --> 00:38:57,360
Speaker 1: yak the whole season. He had a third of that

835
00:38:57,520 --> 00:39:00,400
Speaker 1: just last week. He caught sixty one percent of passes

836
00:39:00,440 --> 00:39:02,719
Speaker 1: on the season versus one hundred percent. Really easy to

837
00:39:02,719 --> 00:39:04,600
Speaker 1: catch a pass behind the line, that's like right there.

838
00:39:04,640 --> 00:39:07,200
Speaker 1: Even kill Billiams can't miss that one. This is just

839
00:39:07,719 --> 00:39:10,319
Speaker 1: get the ball to our playmaker and Len McCook. So

840
00:39:11,120 --> 00:39:13,040
Speaker 1: what are you gonna do. If you're Minnesota, You're gonna blitz,

841
00:39:13,040 --> 00:39:15,280
Speaker 1: You're gonna bring the pressure, You're gonna make kill Williams.

842
00:39:15,320 --> 00:39:18,480
Speaker 1: Make quick decisions, help out some quick decisions. Getting the

843
00:39:18,520 --> 00:39:20,160
Speaker 1: ball to my playmaker and letting him cook. I think

844
00:39:20,160 --> 00:39:22,520
Speaker 1: that makes a lot of sense here. And like you mentioned,

845
00:39:22,880 --> 00:39:26,680
Speaker 1: with the receiver receptions being high, Minnesota is the number

846
00:39:26,680 --> 00:39:28,919
Speaker 1: one defense, but they will out the third most wide

847
00:39:28,960 --> 00:39:31,880
Speaker 1: receiver fantasy points because teams are behind. They got to

848
00:39:31,920 --> 00:39:35,160
Speaker 1: keep passing. Here are the guys that I think profile

849
00:39:35,239 --> 00:39:38,640
Speaker 1: similar to DJ Moore, kind of the shifty receiver, quick

850
00:39:38,719 --> 00:39:41,919
Speaker 1: short passes, let them cook a little bit. Here's the receptions.

851
00:39:42,120 --> 00:39:46,360
Speaker 1: Swandel Robinson six and the opener Deebo eight, Stefan Diggs

852
00:39:46,360 --> 00:39:50,439
Speaker 1: ten catches, Jane Reid seven, Garrett Wilson thirteen catches, Tom

853
00:39:50,480 --> 00:39:54,480
Speaker 1: Andra eight catches, Kuka seven catches, Test six guys with

854
00:39:54,600 --> 00:39:56,840
Speaker 1: seven or more catches that are a pretty similar style

855
00:39:56,960 --> 00:40:00,320
Speaker 1: receiver to DJ Moore. So I love the four and

856
00:40:00,360 --> 00:40:02,719
Speaker 1: a half receptions here. We're definitely taking that. Take the

857
00:40:02,800 --> 00:40:05,320
Speaker 1: escalator all the way up seven catches and more is

858
00:40:05,360 --> 00:40:08,320
Speaker 1: plus three seventy five. Again, six guys have done that already.

859
00:40:08,320 --> 00:40:11,080
Speaker 1: We're definitely playing that one. Eight catches plus seven to

860
00:40:11,080 --> 00:40:14,279
Speaker 1: fifty nine catches thirteen to one. Got to touch them all.

861
00:40:14,440 --> 00:40:16,919
Speaker 1: DJ Moore escalator, it's my favorite of all these crops here.

862
00:40:17,560 --> 00:40:19,719
Speaker 2: Nice. Yeah, you might have a trailing game script as well,

863
00:40:19,719 --> 00:40:21,880
Speaker 2: which could help out a bunch of dumps trying to

864
00:40:21,880 --> 00:40:25,880
Speaker 2: get upfield. All right, next game here, Nothing like a

865
00:40:25,920 --> 00:40:28,640
Speaker 2: welcome backprop. A guy who's been hurt for a little

866
00:40:28,640 --> 00:40:32,040
Speaker 2: while supposedly, you know, healthy again coming back this week.

867
00:40:32,080 --> 00:40:33,839
Speaker 2: Who do you like to score a touchdown? Yeah?

868
00:40:33,840 --> 00:40:36,720
Speaker 1: I love my Mike Evans touchdowns. Gimme an Evans touchdown

869
00:40:36,760 --> 00:40:39,040
Speaker 1: plus one sixty at the Giants. No, look, I took

870
00:40:39,040 --> 00:40:41,279
Speaker 1: the under on this game. It's fine. Evans can score

871
00:40:41,280 --> 00:40:43,960
Speaker 1: a touchdown, maybe even two. We still hit that Giants

872
00:40:43,960 --> 00:40:47,440
Speaker 1: defense good up front, not great in the secondary. Second

873
00:40:47,520 --> 00:40:50,160
Speaker 1: to last against wide receiver one in the season. Second

874
00:40:50,160 --> 00:40:54,080
Speaker 1: to last against deep passes. Deontay Banks is shadowing and

875
00:40:54,120 --> 00:40:57,640
Speaker 1: Deontay Banks is letting receivers eat all seas along. They're

876
00:40:57,680 --> 00:41:00,680
Speaker 1: averaging wide receiver run Againstante Banks is averaging just under

877
00:41:00,680 --> 00:41:03,760
Speaker 1: a touchdown a game. Five of the nine had a touchdown.

878
00:41:03,920 --> 00:41:07,239
Speaker 1: Three of them had multiple touchdowns playing the Giants, playing

879
00:41:07,280 --> 00:41:10,279
Speaker 1: Dante Banks, so Evans so far has missed a bunch

880
00:41:10,320 --> 00:41:13,360
Speaker 1: of time. Still six touchdowns, He's tied for fourth in

881
00:41:13,360 --> 00:41:16,640
Speaker 1: the NFL with six touchdowns and effectively six games so far,

882
00:41:17,040 --> 00:41:21,120
Speaker 1: he's got multiple touchdowns twice already. Baker Mayfield just off

883
00:41:21,120 --> 00:41:23,400
Speaker 1: the bye week. Heading into the by he led the

884
00:41:23,480 --> 00:41:25,560
Speaker 1: league in passing touchdowns. He was tied with two other

885
00:41:25,640 --> 00:41:28,640
Speaker 1: guys for the lead twenty four and no Chris Godwin.

886
00:41:28,880 --> 00:41:30,960
Speaker 1: Evans is the guy now. Evans has to be the

887
00:41:31,000 --> 00:41:33,920
Speaker 1: guy for the touchdowns now he's coming back from injury.

888
00:41:34,239 --> 00:41:36,279
Speaker 1: So do we get the full snaps. We don't need

889
00:41:36,280 --> 00:41:38,400
Speaker 1: the full snaps. We're you gonna use Mike Evans in

890
00:41:38,440 --> 00:41:40,280
Speaker 1: the red zone if you only get part of the snaps,

891
00:41:40,320 --> 00:41:42,399
Speaker 1: receiving them for the red zone when they get there.

892
00:41:42,760 --> 00:41:46,040
Speaker 1: Evans has at least one touchdown in a Baker Mayfield

893
00:41:46,120 --> 00:41:49,239
Speaker 1: game fifteen out of twenty four times since Mayfield came out,

894
00:41:49,320 --> 00:41:51,719
Speaker 1: so sixty three percent of the time. That would be

895
00:41:51,800 --> 00:41:54,440
Speaker 1: like a minus one seventy five. Here we're getting plus

896
00:41:54,480 --> 00:41:57,279
Speaker 1: one sixty. I think this line is way off, kind

897
00:41:57,280 --> 00:42:00,839
Speaker 1: of overfactoring the injury here. Two touchdowns plus eight point

898
00:42:00,800 --> 00:42:04,040
Speaker 1: fifty not necessarily likely, but Evans can certainly do it,

899
00:42:04,080 --> 00:42:05,680
Speaker 1: so we gotta nibble that a little bit as well.

900
00:42:06,280 --> 00:42:09,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was thinking four receptions, five targets, two touchdowns,

901
00:42:09,960 --> 00:42:11,799
Speaker 2: get them off the field, get them out of there.

902
00:42:12,200 --> 00:42:14,520
Speaker 2: I like it all right, let's go to the next one.

903
00:42:14,520 --> 00:42:16,520
Speaker 2: I'm gonna Foreshadoway, I'm just gonna give it away here.

904
00:42:16,600 --> 00:42:21,520
Speaker 2: But George Kittle Packers. Kittle said sixty plus receiving yards

905
00:42:21,560 --> 00:42:24,080
Speaker 2: in his last three games versus Green Bay. If you

906
00:42:24,200 --> 00:42:26,040
Speaker 2: like him in the totals much lower than that, what

907
00:42:26,040 --> 00:42:26,480
Speaker 2: are you thinking?

908
00:42:26,680 --> 00:42:28,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna take the Kittle over forty five and

909
00:42:28,520 --> 00:42:31,359
Speaker 1: a half. Another guy coming off an injury here, high

910
00:42:31,480 --> 00:42:33,800
Speaker 1: leverage game, almost loser goes home sort of game in

911
00:42:33,840 --> 00:42:36,799
Speaker 1: the NFC. I think I really wanted to do all

912
00:42:36,800 --> 00:42:38,480
Speaker 1: sorts of stuff with this game. I like the Niners

913
00:42:38,480 --> 00:42:40,520
Speaker 1: in the first half, like the Packers the second half.

914
00:42:40,800 --> 00:42:43,680
Speaker 1: I couldn't make up my mind. These are volatile teams.

915
00:42:43,719 --> 00:42:45,560
Speaker 1: I don't know if I need a side here. I

916
00:42:45,600 --> 00:42:48,160
Speaker 1: do think Kitt'll show us up. Packers have been a

917
00:42:48,200 --> 00:42:50,680
Speaker 1: bottom five team against tight ends by DVA and bottom

918
00:42:50,680 --> 00:42:53,359
Speaker 1: five against short passing. The problem is it hasn't really

919
00:42:53,360 --> 00:42:55,680
Speaker 1: popped yet because the Packers haven't played any good tight

920
00:42:55,800 --> 00:42:59,120
Speaker 1: ends yet. They've only faced two top twenty Fantasy tight ends.

921
00:42:59,600 --> 00:43:02,960
Speaker 1: Even despite that, they're so bad defending that that they've

922
00:43:02,960 --> 00:43:05,800
Speaker 1: allowed forty two yards or more. So basically, this line

923
00:43:06,080 --> 00:43:10,560
Speaker 1: to five tight ends guys like Colby Parkinson, Josh Wiley,

924
00:43:10,800 --> 00:43:14,600
Speaker 1: Brenton Strange. These are the guys putting up forty two yards.

925
00:43:14,840 --> 00:43:16,680
Speaker 1: The one good tight end that they have faced is

926
00:43:16,680 --> 00:43:19,360
Speaker 1: Trey McBride. He had eight catches for ninety six yards,

927
00:43:19,440 --> 00:43:21,239
Speaker 1: so I think we might get more of that sort

928
00:43:21,280 --> 00:43:24,279
Speaker 1: of range. For George Kittle. This line's just low. And

929
00:43:24,360 --> 00:43:26,719
Speaker 1: I know the injury thing, but he's been cleared. I

930
00:43:26,760 --> 00:43:29,359
Speaker 1: think he looks good to go. Kittle said forty five

931
00:43:29,440 --> 00:43:31,840
Speaker 1: yards or more seven straight games, all but the opener,

932
00:43:32,120 --> 00:43:33,719
Speaker 1: he had fifty seven or more all but one of

933
00:43:33,760 --> 00:43:36,400
Speaker 1: those games. He's averaging seventy four yards in that stretch.

934
00:43:36,680 --> 00:43:38,799
Speaker 1: So this line is just too low to me. And

935
00:43:38,840 --> 00:43:40,359
Speaker 1: I don't mind if you want to add in a

936
00:43:40,360 --> 00:43:42,960
Speaker 1: touchdown as well. He scored a touchdown in six out

937
00:43:43,000 --> 00:43:45,319
Speaker 1: of eight games this year, Green Bay has been a

938
00:43:45,320 --> 00:43:48,160
Speaker 1: bad red zone team, and Kittle just keeps scoring. He's

939
00:43:48,200 --> 00:43:51,080
Speaker 1: two to one to score a touchdown. I might play

940
00:43:51,120 --> 00:43:55,240
Speaker 1: those separate rather than together, just because, again like Evans,

941
00:43:55,280 --> 00:43:56,960
Speaker 1: we could get a touchdown even they don't get a

942
00:43:56,960 --> 00:44:00,319
Speaker 1: lot of touches along the way. But the main bat

943
00:44:00,600 --> 00:44:04,120
Speaker 1: is George Kittle over forty five and a half receiving yards.

944
00:44:04,600 --> 00:44:07,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's kind of a script agnostic he you know,

945
00:44:07,760 --> 00:44:10,919
Speaker 2: winning losing, Pertty's still gonna look at him, especially because

946
00:44:10,920 --> 00:44:13,400
Speaker 2: he hasn't been playing fantastic lately, and it's an easy

947
00:44:13,400 --> 00:44:15,319
Speaker 2: blanket to try to get yards upfield. I think it

948
00:44:15,360 --> 00:44:18,160
Speaker 2: makes a lot of sense. One prop left here. We

949
00:44:18,239 --> 00:44:21,280
Speaker 2: have two totals of fifty plus on the board this week,

950
00:44:21,480 --> 00:44:24,760
Speaker 2: and you're attacking one of those games. What's the propy like, Yeah.

951
00:44:24,640 --> 00:44:27,319
Speaker 1: Give me a David Montgomery over here. So over the

952
00:44:27,400 --> 00:44:30,040
Speaker 1: rushing yards fifty seven and a half plus a touchdown.

953
00:44:30,320 --> 00:44:32,560
Speaker 1: So it's the same game parlay plus one sixty eight.

954
00:44:32,560 --> 00:44:35,359
Speaker 1: We've done this one before, right, the Detroit script when

955
00:44:35,360 --> 00:44:38,200
Speaker 1: they're a big favorite, get the lead, run the clock out.

956
00:44:38,760 --> 00:44:41,440
Speaker 1: I wanted to look at the Colts here over a touchdown.

957
00:44:41,560 --> 00:44:44,000
Speaker 1: But we know the stat about Jared goth indoors like,

958
00:44:44,040 --> 00:44:45,719
Speaker 1: it's just I can't. I don't want to catch the

959
00:44:45,760 --> 00:44:48,880
Speaker 1: falling knife here. The Colts run defense bottom ten the

960
00:44:48,960 --> 00:44:52,160
Speaker 1: last six weeks. That's scary to me against probably the

961
00:44:52,200 --> 00:44:55,279
Speaker 1: best run team in football with Lions, Montgomery has been

962
00:44:55,320 --> 00:44:58,239
Speaker 1: a touchdown machine in Detroit last two seasons. Kind of

963
00:44:58,280 --> 00:45:00,800
Speaker 1: the playoffs. He has at least one time down twenty

964
00:45:00,880 --> 00:45:04,359
Speaker 1: one of twenty seven games, seventy eight percent of the time. Now, look,

965
00:45:04,360 --> 00:45:06,399
Speaker 1: you can play just that at minus one seventy five.

966
00:45:06,760 --> 00:45:09,000
Speaker 1: I'm not here to give you heavily juice bets. That

967
00:45:09,080 --> 00:45:11,480
Speaker 1: number is heavily in our favor. Should be like over

968
00:45:11,600 --> 00:45:13,759
Speaker 1: minus three hundred. So if you just want to like

969
00:45:13,840 --> 00:45:15,719
Speaker 1: get some money, that's a pretty good way to go.

970
00:45:16,239 --> 00:45:19,959
Speaker 1: Montgomery said, fifty five in a touchdown just over half

971
00:45:20,000 --> 00:45:22,840
Speaker 1: of those games, fourteen out of twenty seven. Colts have

972
00:45:22,880 --> 00:45:24,840
Speaker 1: allowed six of eleven running backs this season to have

973
00:45:24,840 --> 00:45:26,840
Speaker 1: at least seventy eight yards and a score for the

974
00:45:26,880 --> 00:45:29,960
Speaker 1: last six games they've allowed that. So just the traditional

975
00:45:30,040 --> 00:45:31,920
Speaker 1: over here, you can do just like a fifty plus

976
00:45:31,920 --> 00:45:35,000
Speaker 1: if you prefer. I don't want a huge Montgomery rushing

977
00:45:35,080 --> 00:45:37,680
Speaker 1: yards line. I just want to juice my touchdown odds

978
00:45:37,680 --> 00:45:40,280
Speaker 1: a little bit so over the yards plus a touchdown

979
00:45:40,360 --> 00:45:41,759
Speaker 1: at plus one sixty eight.

980
00:45:42,400 --> 00:45:44,120
Speaker 2: As a guy who's had him on Fantasy the last

981
00:45:44,120 --> 00:45:46,479
Speaker 2: two years, he'll he'll have that by halftime. Don't worry

982
00:45:46,480 --> 00:45:48,719
Speaker 2: about it, all right, don't go anywhere. You got to

983
00:45:48,719 --> 00:45:51,800
Speaker 2: look aheadline right now, and you're going to talk Thanksgiving quickly.

984
00:45:53,600 --> 00:45:54,360
Speaker 1: Let's look ahead.

985
00:45:54,600 --> 00:45:56,640
Speaker 3: Just give it a shot. How about next week?

986
00:45:57,120 --> 00:46:01,799
Speaker 1: Bick out my mind? I got my mindset.

987
00:46:03,560 --> 00:46:05,680
Speaker 2: Talk about the look ahead line. It's a it's a

988
00:46:05,680 --> 00:46:08,000
Speaker 2: little bit of a teasier. It's a geno revenge spot.

989
00:46:08,000 --> 00:46:08,840
Speaker 2: What do you got.

990
00:46:08,960 --> 00:46:11,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, give me the Seahawks plus one and a half

991
00:46:12,080 --> 00:46:15,760
Speaker 1: at the Jets. The Seahawks plus one and a half

992
00:46:15,800 --> 00:46:19,000
Speaker 1: at the Jets. What are we doing? I am personally

993
00:46:19,040 --> 00:46:23,520
Speaker 1: insulted by this line. How are the Jets still favored?

994
00:46:23,800 --> 00:46:26,000
Speaker 1: They're three and eight straight up, they are three and

995
00:46:26,040 --> 00:46:28,799
Speaker 1: eight against the spread. They're three and a five as

996
00:46:28,920 --> 00:46:32,960
Speaker 1: favorites straight up. The wins are against the Titans and

997
00:46:33,000 --> 00:46:36,120
Speaker 1: the Patriots. They beat the Texans, but we already know

998
00:46:36,160 --> 00:46:38,479
Speaker 1: the Texans aren't that great of a team overall. Either

999
00:46:38,840 --> 00:46:41,640
Speaker 1: the Jets have lost as a favorite of two two

1000
00:46:41,719 --> 00:46:44,000
Speaker 1: and a half, four and a half, seven eight, two

1001
00:46:44,000 --> 00:46:47,719
Speaker 1: of those losses at home, and we're still making them favorites.

1002
00:46:47,800 --> 00:46:49,919
Speaker 1: What are we doing? What are the Jets better at?

1003
00:46:49,920 --> 00:46:53,640
Speaker 1: In this game? They're worse at offense. They're worse running

1004
00:46:53,680 --> 00:46:56,279
Speaker 1: the ball and passing. They're worse on defense, running and

1005
00:46:56,320 --> 00:46:59,880
Speaker 1: passing all by DVA there were special teams. They're certainly

1006
00:47:00,120 --> 00:47:02,279
Speaker 1: worse as coaching. Do they even have a coach or

1007
00:47:02,320 --> 00:47:04,880
Speaker 1: a GM? I don't know what's happening over there. What

1008
00:47:04,920 --> 00:47:07,680
Speaker 1: are they better like receivers? No thanks, I'd rather have

1009
00:47:07,680 --> 00:47:12,080
Speaker 1: Seattle's trio quarterback. I don't know man Gino Smith's playing

1010
00:47:12,120 --> 00:47:14,120
Speaker 1: pretty well. I don't know what Aaron Rodgers is anymore,

1011
00:47:14,120 --> 00:47:17,360
Speaker 1: like I honestly don't know what the Jets are. Frankly,

1012
00:47:17,880 --> 00:47:20,480
Speaker 1: coming out of the bye week. Would it be totally

1013
00:47:20,520 --> 00:47:22,960
Speaker 1: shocking if Aaron Rodgers just got bench and they're just like,

1014
00:47:23,000 --> 00:47:25,120
Speaker 1: we're just done, We're done, We're moving on, We're gonna

1015
00:47:25,160 --> 00:47:27,600
Speaker 1: go forward. If that did happen, we're getting a lot

1016
00:47:27,640 --> 00:47:30,279
Speaker 1: of celv in our bet here. I think either way

1017
00:47:30,400 --> 00:47:32,799
Speaker 1: this is gonna end up Seattle favored. I looked at

1018
00:47:32,840 --> 00:47:37,040
Speaker 1: bet Labs only one time ever in our database. Is

1019
00:47:37,080 --> 00:47:40,200
Speaker 1: there a week thirteen or later a team that is

1020
00:47:40,280 --> 00:47:42,760
Speaker 1: winning and covering less than a third of the time

1021
00:47:43,239 --> 00:47:46,440
Speaker 1: favored against a team five hundred or better only one

1022
00:47:46,560 --> 00:47:49,200
Speaker 1: time in twenty years. If we had this looking line,

1023
00:47:49,560 --> 00:47:51,080
Speaker 1: I don't think we're gonna get it here either, because

1024
00:47:51,120 --> 00:47:53,719
Speaker 1: I think they close as underdogs as they should be.

1025
00:47:54,360 --> 00:47:57,240
Speaker 1: And then the stat if Seattle does end up favored,

1026
00:47:57,239 --> 00:48:01,160
Speaker 1: since twenty eleven, road favorites under six points against the

1027
00:48:01,160 --> 00:48:03,520
Speaker 1: team coming off of a bye week, so we know

1028
00:48:03,640 --> 00:48:07,080
Speaker 1: you're better even though the opponent's rested twenty eight fifteen

1029
00:48:07,080 --> 00:48:09,840
Speaker 1: and one sixty five percent against the spread, Give me

1030
00:48:09,880 --> 00:48:12,480
Speaker 1: Seattle plus one and a half. They will be favored

1031
00:48:12,520 --> 00:48:13,719
Speaker 1: when this game kicks off.

1032
00:48:14,360 --> 00:48:17,040
Speaker 2: The Jets have only been underdogs to the Bills, Vikings,

1033
00:48:17,080 --> 00:48:19,160
Speaker 2: and forty nine ers this year. That's just not the

1034
00:48:19,200 --> 00:48:22,480
Speaker 2: company they're supposed to keep. And it's just unreal week

1035
00:48:22,520 --> 00:48:26,680
Speaker 2: to week when we see that, Okay, Thanksgiving one game here,

1036
00:48:27,239 --> 00:48:29,319
Speaker 2: a you have a just give us what you're thinking here.

1037
00:48:29,360 --> 00:48:30,440
Speaker 2: I know it's a bit of a look ahead.

1038
00:48:30,520 --> 00:48:32,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's just just a little nibble, little early taste

1039
00:48:32,960 --> 00:48:36,040
Speaker 1: of Thanksgiving, give me the Lions minus ten. We'll be

1040
00:48:36,080 --> 00:48:38,319
Speaker 1: coming back to this one. You and I will be recording. Well,

1041
00:48:38,360 --> 00:48:41,040
Speaker 1: we're gonna record next Tuesday late night. You'll get the

1042
00:48:41,080 --> 00:48:43,919
Speaker 1: podcast for Best Bets Wednesday. Everything from action never comes

1043
00:48:43,920 --> 00:48:46,239
Speaker 1: to you. It's all coming next week is just all out.

1044
00:48:46,239 --> 00:48:49,520
Speaker 1: By Wednesday morning, Best Bets will be up. So we'll

1045
00:48:49,520 --> 00:48:51,799
Speaker 1: talk about why. But Evan, you and I both have

1046
00:48:51,880 --> 00:48:53,759
Speaker 1: trends stuff coming out next week. Here are a few

1047
00:48:53,800 --> 00:48:57,080
Speaker 1: trends that will like this one on Thanksgiving. I bet

1048
00:48:57,080 --> 00:48:59,719
Speaker 1: Detroit on Thanksgiving. I bet big favorites on Thanksgiving. I

1049
00:48:59,800 --> 00:49:02,919
Speaker 1: bet any favorite that is not named Dallas. All those

1050
00:49:02,960 --> 00:49:05,480
Speaker 1: things are good for the Lions. I think this one

1051
00:49:05,560 --> 00:49:07,880
Speaker 1: is gonna get to thirteen or fourteen by kickoff, so

1052
00:49:07,880 --> 00:49:10,399
Speaker 1: I'm gonna grab it now at ten. That's the bet

1053
00:49:10,440 --> 00:49:12,320
Speaker 1: I know I'm gonna be making next week Monday and

1054
00:49:12,320 --> 00:49:14,439
Speaker 1: Tuesday anyway, so I may as well get the extra

1055
00:49:14,480 --> 00:49:17,319
Speaker 1: points here. We'll talk about it more later and.

1056
00:49:17,280 --> 00:49:19,200
Speaker 2: A little teas for my trend's article. This will be

1057
00:49:19,239 --> 00:49:23,120
Speaker 2: the Lion's biggest favorite on Thanksgiving since nineteen sixty eight.

1058
00:49:23,160 --> 00:49:26,040
Speaker 2: But can't wait, can't wait to go through that next week.

1059
00:49:26,560 --> 00:49:29,400
Speaker 2: This has been the Best Bets podcast on the Action Network.

1060
00:49:29,560 --> 00:49:32,520
Speaker 2: I'm Evan Abram's your host. That's Brandon Anderson. We will

1061
00:49:32,560 --> 00:49:36,320
Speaker 2: be back, like you said on Tuesday, with a extravaganza

1062
00:49:36,360 --> 00:49:39,840
Speaker 2: of Thanksgiving sides and entrees and all your best bets.

1063
00:49:40,200 --> 00:49:42,080
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening and enjoy the slate.

1064
00:49:42,120 --> 00:49:56,920
Speaker 3: Everyone.

1065
00:49:57,840 --> 00:50:02,000
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please please gambler responsibly. If you

1066
00:50:02,280 --> 00:50:05,040
Speaker 2: or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help

1067
00:50:05,120 --> 00:50:07,800
Speaker 2: is available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred

1068
00:50:07,840 --> 00:50:08,280
Speaker 2: Gambler