1 00:00:01,040 --> 00:00:04,160 Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast. 2 00:00:04,640 --> 00:00:08,360 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's when you. 3 00:00:08,440 --> 00:00:12,160 Speaker 1: Have fun when you're kicking somebody's ass and they're sucking 4 00:00:12,160 --> 00:00:12,559 Speaker 1: for win. 5 00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:15,120 Speaker 2: That was goodday. 6 00:00:15,880 --> 00:00:27,240 Speaker 3: Gomvolved here on the baseline pot yeah, way outside. 7 00:00:27,320 --> 00:00:31,720 Speaker 2: Possible. 8 00:00:34,760 --> 00:00:35,479 Speaker 3: Here it is. 9 00:00:37,720 --> 00:00:40,960 Speaker 4: Welcome into the Action Network podcast, presented by bet MGM, 10 00:00:41,040 --> 00:00:43,839 Speaker 4: the King of sports books. College basketball fans are just 11 00:00:43,960 --> 00:00:46,440 Speaker 4: days away from selection Sunday, and if you're looking to 12 00:00:46,440 --> 00:00:49,240 Speaker 4: participate in any March Madness pools this season. 13 00:00:49,280 --> 00:00:51,199 Speaker 2: This, my friends, is the episode for you. 14 00:00:51,320 --> 00:00:55,680 Speaker 4: Because this is our March Madness pool strategy episode. We 15 00:00:55,760 --> 00:00:59,440 Speaker 4: have Action Network expert Travis Reid you've heard his voice 16 00:00:59,440 --> 00:01:04,360 Speaker 4: on OURFL Draft podcast episodes, and pool play expert friend 17 00:01:04,360 --> 00:01:07,720 Speaker 4: of the pod Jason Lisk from Poolgenius dot com. Hardcore 18 00:01:07,840 --> 00:01:10,880 Speaker 4: fans of this podcast may recall we did an episode 19 00:01:10,920 --> 00:01:14,000 Speaker 4: like this in August for the NFL. Today, we're discussing 20 00:01:14,000 --> 00:01:18,160 Speaker 4: strategies around the two most popular types of March Madness pools, 21 00:01:18,640 --> 00:01:22,280 Speaker 4: traditional bracket pools and survivor pools. 22 00:01:22,680 --> 00:01:24,640 Speaker 2: Jason, I'll kick to you first. 23 00:01:24,840 --> 00:01:28,600 Speaker 4: What's your excitement level for this particular march coming up here? 24 00:01:28,840 --> 00:01:31,880 Speaker 3: Oh? I'm super excited. Here a few reasons. Weather's great 25 00:01:31,920 --> 00:01:34,319 Speaker 3: I'm in the Midwest, so unlike last year, I think 26 00:01:34,360 --> 00:01:37,640 Speaker 3: I'm dealing with seventy degrees perfect weather to go grab 27 00:01:37,680 --> 00:01:41,760 Speaker 3: a beer while watching conference tournament action before Selection Sunday 28 00:01:41,800 --> 00:01:44,080 Speaker 3: and leading straight into March, and then we can have 29 00:01:44,400 --> 00:01:45,480 Speaker 3: so many storylines. 30 00:01:45,640 --> 00:01:47,200 Speaker 2: Agreed, Travis, How about yourself? 31 00:01:47,520 --> 00:01:49,640 Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm very excited. I'm trying to go back to back. 32 00:01:49,760 --> 00:01:52,120 Speaker 1: I had a very good year last year, so I 33 00:01:52,160 --> 00:01:54,560 Speaker 1: wish you could almost start doing brackets now. But that's 34 00:01:54,560 --> 00:01:56,800 Speaker 1: what makes Selections Sunday so much fun as you have 35 00:01:56,960 --> 00:01:58,520 Speaker 1: to wait and then you finally get to open that 36 00:01:58,560 --> 00:02:00,760 Speaker 1: present on Sunday, and then you get to go to work. 37 00:02:00,960 --> 00:02:02,559 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm kind of surprised you're here, Travis. 38 00:02:02,600 --> 00:02:04,440 Speaker 4: In all honesty, I would have just retired in your 39 00:02:04,480 --> 00:02:07,240 Speaker 4: spot San Diego State Yukon in the final. But hey, 40 00:02:07,240 --> 00:02:10,280 Speaker 4: thanks for coming back. We appreciate you being here. Don't 41 00:02:10,320 --> 00:02:10,920 Speaker 4: screw this up. 42 00:02:12,440 --> 00:02:14,560 Speaker 2: We hear at Action Network love pool Genius. 43 00:02:14,600 --> 00:02:17,200 Speaker 4: We love their products, and once again we have partnered 44 00:02:17,240 --> 00:02:21,160 Speaker 4: with them for this upcoming March Madness season. That's because 45 00:02:21,160 --> 00:02:24,959 Speaker 4: they remain the only site dedicated exclusively to helping people 46 00:02:25,000 --> 00:02:28,320 Speaker 4: win more pools across all kinds of sports. NFL, college basketball, 47 00:02:28,639 --> 00:02:31,240 Speaker 4: everything in between. We love the data and analytics here 48 00:02:31,280 --> 00:02:31,640 Speaker 4: at Action. 49 00:02:31,720 --> 00:02:32,600 Speaker 2: They've spent over. 50 00:02:32,440 --> 00:02:35,400 Speaker 4: A decade building tools to optimize your picks based on 51 00:02:35,520 --> 00:02:39,160 Speaker 4: math game theory data, and their subscribers have reported more 52 00:02:39,160 --> 00:02:42,160 Speaker 4: than eight million dollars and pool prize winning since twenty 53 00:02:42,240 --> 00:02:44,639 Speaker 4: seventeen and cashing their pools more than three times more 54 00:02:44,680 --> 00:02:48,400 Speaker 4: often than expected. Good deal again today discussing two of 55 00:02:48,440 --> 00:02:51,040 Speaker 4: the most popular kinds of March Madness pools, the traditional 56 00:02:51,120 --> 00:02:54,360 Speaker 4: bracket pool and the survivor pool. Let's start with the 57 00:02:54,400 --> 00:02:58,040 Speaker 4: more popular bracket pools, the typical March Madness office pool, 58 00:02:58,040 --> 00:02:59,440 Speaker 4: which are probably the most popular and. 59 00:02:59,360 --> 00:03:01,040 Speaker 2: Familiar game pools in America. 60 00:03:01,200 --> 00:03:03,800 Speaker 4: So, Jason, from a data perspective, what are the most 61 00:03:03,840 --> 00:03:07,200 Speaker 4: important components to consider when you fill out your bracket? 62 00:03:07,919 --> 00:03:10,240 Speaker 3: Yeah, the most important things to consider are how many 63 00:03:10,280 --> 00:03:12,080 Speaker 3: people you got to beat and what your rules are. 64 00:03:12,280 --> 00:03:14,040 Speaker 3: Those are the two things that are going to drive 65 00:03:14,280 --> 00:03:16,920 Speaker 3: how much risk you take, how much value kind of 66 00:03:17,000 --> 00:03:20,200 Speaker 3: leverage value plays where you play against the public depending 67 00:03:20,200 --> 00:03:21,720 Speaker 3: on how many people you got to beat, and so 68 00:03:21,800 --> 00:03:23,520 Speaker 3: you want to take those in account as well as 69 00:03:23,560 --> 00:03:26,800 Speaker 3: the payout structure. I mean, obviously, pools that are winner 70 00:03:26,800 --> 00:03:28,960 Speaker 3: take all are going to be different than pools where 71 00:03:29,000 --> 00:03:30,960 Speaker 3: you get a lot of payout spots, and so you 72 00:03:31,000 --> 00:03:33,240 Speaker 3: want to adjust your risk for those as well. So 73 00:03:33,320 --> 00:03:34,640 Speaker 3: all those things are very important. 74 00:03:34,880 --> 00:03:37,120 Speaker 2: If multiple brackets are allowed, what are we looking at 75 00:03:37,160 --> 00:03:38,000 Speaker 2: for optima? 76 00:03:38,120 --> 00:03:40,520 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'd look at more of a percentage than a number. 77 00:03:40,720 --> 00:03:43,120 Speaker 3: Our dad would show you. The edge tends to start 78 00:03:43,160 --> 00:03:45,520 Speaker 3: to go down after you get above that three to 79 00:03:45,560 --> 00:03:47,400 Speaker 3: five percent range. So if I was in a small pool, 80 00:03:47,520 --> 00:03:50,360 Speaker 3: maybe I only in a one with one hundred entries, 81 00:03:50,400 --> 00:03:51,840 Speaker 3: you might be able to put three to five in, 82 00:03:52,120 --> 00:03:54,360 Speaker 3: and obviously really large ones you could put a lot 83 00:03:54,360 --> 00:03:55,520 Speaker 3: more in if you wanted. 84 00:03:55,320 --> 00:03:58,880 Speaker 4: To have the same question for your components to consider 85 00:03:59,160 --> 00:03:59,760 Speaker 4: when filling out. 86 00:04:00,760 --> 00:04:04,040 Speaker 1: Ownership is a big one. Once these brackets start coming in, 87 00:04:04,080 --> 00:04:06,800 Speaker 1: there'll be many sites. I know Jason's tracking this as well. 88 00:04:07,040 --> 00:04:09,440 Speaker 1: Who is picking who, and that should drive a lot 89 00:04:09,520 --> 00:04:12,520 Speaker 1: of your decisions. I have feelings now, but teams. I 90 00:04:12,680 --> 00:04:15,000 Speaker 1: like to win it all. But when I'm filling out 91 00:04:15,000 --> 00:04:17,440 Speaker 1: my bracket, if I'm not looking at ownership, I'm losing 92 00:04:17,440 --> 00:04:19,839 Speaker 1: a big key there. If I like Houston now, but 93 00:04:19,880 --> 00:04:23,159 Speaker 1: then Houston's thirty percent picked, I'm not taking Houston in 94 00:04:23,160 --> 00:04:24,880 Speaker 1: my bracket, and that goes for any of those top 95 00:04:24,880 --> 00:04:29,159 Speaker 1: teams Yukon generally, whoever the most popular team, I'm probably 96 00:04:29,160 --> 00:04:30,800 Speaker 1: not going to pick that team, especially if I'm in 97 00:04:30,839 --> 00:04:33,880 Speaker 1: a single entry pool, because it's the easiest way to 98 00:04:33,880 --> 00:04:36,279 Speaker 1: get different. So got to be looking at ownership not 99 00:04:36,440 --> 00:04:38,919 Speaker 1: just for the champion, but through every round of the tournament. 100 00:04:39,279 --> 00:04:41,120 Speaker 2: Okay, so I'll throw it to Jason. 101 00:04:42,040 --> 00:04:46,839 Speaker 4: Same So your Yukon's, Houston, Purdue, some of those teams 102 00:04:46,880 --> 00:04:48,240 Speaker 4: that have that are up there and that kind of 103 00:04:48,279 --> 00:04:51,520 Speaker 4: separate from the rest of the field. How do those 104 00:04:51,720 --> 00:04:55,000 Speaker 4: ownership projections play into your thinking, Jason. 105 00:04:56,040 --> 00:04:58,839 Speaker 3: I mean definitely. You want to account what your opponents 106 00:04:58,839 --> 00:05:01,000 Speaker 3: are doing. You win a pool by meeting your opponents, 107 00:05:01,320 --> 00:05:03,520 Speaker 3: and thus if you pick exactly like your opponents, you're 108 00:05:03,560 --> 00:05:05,480 Speaker 3: less likely to have an edge, and so you have 109 00:05:05,520 --> 00:05:08,839 Speaker 3: to think about where you can be different while still 110 00:05:08,920 --> 00:05:12,599 Speaker 3: having a good shot. So you're balancing the win odds 111 00:05:12,640 --> 00:05:16,039 Speaker 3: and the advancement ods projections of teams versus their projected 112 00:05:16,560 --> 00:05:18,880 Speaker 3: pick rates through that round, and so you're trying to 113 00:05:18,920 --> 00:05:21,160 Speaker 3: figure that out. Some of the math can get complicated 114 00:05:21,160 --> 00:05:24,039 Speaker 3: because some teams can be overvalued early. But undervalued late, 115 00:05:24,400 --> 00:05:25,760 Speaker 3: and so you got to figure do I want to 116 00:05:25,800 --> 00:05:28,040 Speaker 3: take them all the way knowing that they're going to 117 00:05:28,080 --> 00:05:30,760 Speaker 3: be popular early, but then they'll start picking another popular 118 00:05:30,760 --> 00:05:32,839 Speaker 3: team later on, and so you got to kind of 119 00:05:33,120 --> 00:05:35,039 Speaker 3: massage that and figure it out. But you definitely want 120 00:05:35,040 --> 00:05:37,840 Speaker 3: to know how people are picking. That's what gives you 121 00:05:37,960 --> 00:05:41,240 Speaker 3: the edge to identify which teams are the good risks 122 00:05:41,240 --> 00:05:41,560 Speaker 3: to take. 123 00:05:41,960 --> 00:05:45,000 Speaker 4: So Jason tell us about the products, the customizable products 124 00:05:45,000 --> 00:05:46,479 Speaker 4: that pull genius offers. 125 00:05:46,200 --> 00:05:46,760 Speaker 2: To the people. 126 00:05:47,279 --> 00:05:49,880 Speaker 3: Yes, for March Madness, we have our main product is 127 00:05:49,920 --> 00:05:52,719 Speaker 3: our bracket product, Bracket Picks. If you are a subscriber, 128 00:05:52,760 --> 00:05:54,200 Speaker 3: you can set up as many pools as you want. 129 00:05:54,360 --> 00:05:56,120 Speaker 3: You tell us the rules of the pool, how big 130 00:05:56,160 --> 00:05:59,240 Speaker 3: it is. All these things matter for strategy reasons, and 131 00:05:59,279 --> 00:06:02,359 Speaker 3: we give you for each pool brackets are best and 132 00:06:02,560 --> 00:06:05,360 Speaker 3: alternates on that bracket for you to consider entering in 133 00:06:05,400 --> 00:06:08,240 Speaker 3: your pool if you want to play multiple entries. Also 134 00:06:08,360 --> 00:06:11,440 Speaker 3: have Calcutta for those that are into that type of pool. 135 00:06:11,640 --> 00:06:15,200 Speaker 3: And then survivor. We have data on that odds to advance, 136 00:06:15,440 --> 00:06:17,240 Speaker 3: odds to reach final four, so you know whether you 137 00:06:17,279 --> 00:06:19,000 Speaker 3: want to save a team, all that kind of stuff, 138 00:06:19,120 --> 00:06:22,040 Speaker 3: And I'll be writing articles each day in the tournament 139 00:06:22,400 --> 00:06:24,640 Speaker 3: to talk about strategy for that as well as. 140 00:06:24,520 --> 00:06:27,640 Speaker 4: A reminder, pool Genius is extending special March Madness pricing. 141 00:06:27,680 --> 00:06:30,480 Speaker 4: Two Action Network listeners get up to fifty five percent 142 00:06:30,520 --> 00:06:34,320 Speaker 4: off packages that includes picks and tools for March Madness, 143 00:06:34,600 --> 00:06:36,760 Speaker 4: football and golf pools. So if you want to get 144 00:06:36,760 --> 00:06:39,960 Speaker 4: an edge in your NCAA bracket pool or tournament survivor pool, 145 00:06:40,360 --> 00:06:45,320 Speaker 4: just visit poolgenius dot com slash action to snag your discount. 146 00:06:45,320 --> 00:06:49,840 Speaker 4: That's poolgenius dot com slash Action. A lot of folks 147 00:06:49,880 --> 00:06:52,320 Speaker 4: that get involved with this, they're not sinking their teeth 148 00:06:52,320 --> 00:06:55,600 Speaker 4: into to the whole season. They're just getting involved in 149 00:06:55,640 --> 00:06:58,000 Speaker 4: the month of March and they're following maybe a conference 150 00:06:58,040 --> 00:07:00,599 Speaker 4: tournament or some of these one bidly leagues, and they're 151 00:07:00,600 --> 00:07:03,080 Speaker 4: they're kind of getting a feel for who they deem 152 00:07:03,160 --> 00:07:05,760 Speaker 4: is good and who they deem could make a deep run. 153 00:07:05,800 --> 00:07:07,520 Speaker 4: And a lot of what we find out on Selection 154 00:07:07,640 --> 00:07:09,400 Speaker 4: Sunday is what kind of draw you might get, Do 155 00:07:09,440 --> 00:07:12,240 Speaker 4: they have a favorable path, can they get fans there? 156 00:07:12,280 --> 00:07:13,800 Speaker 2: Like all those kinds of components. 157 00:07:14,000 --> 00:07:16,520 Speaker 4: So what would be your advice, Jason to people that 158 00:07:16,560 --> 00:07:19,160 Speaker 4: are just just getting into it early on and don't 159 00:07:19,200 --> 00:07:20,880 Speaker 4: really know a lick about what the heck's going on. 160 00:07:21,680 --> 00:07:24,080 Speaker 3: Yeah, don't fall for narratives. Would you have first advice? 161 00:07:24,520 --> 00:07:27,440 Speaker 3: Dig into the teams, look at market odds, look at 162 00:07:27,480 --> 00:07:30,840 Speaker 3: the data on what the betting markets are saying is 163 00:07:30,920 --> 00:07:34,080 Speaker 3: going to happen. Not always right, but probably better than 164 00:07:34,120 --> 00:07:36,840 Speaker 3: your typical Joe Schmoe in an office pool, who isn't 165 00:07:36,840 --> 00:07:39,280 Speaker 3: looking at that stuff going by record, going by what 166 00:07:39,320 --> 00:07:42,000 Speaker 3: they've seen, going by who did what last year, because 167 00:07:42,000 --> 00:07:43,480 Speaker 3: that's also a big bias factor. 168 00:07:43,840 --> 00:07:46,040 Speaker 1: Like I wouldn't be too worried about the seeds. The 169 00:07:46,160 --> 00:07:48,800 Speaker 1: selection committee. They do a decent job, but they're going 170 00:07:48,840 --> 00:07:50,840 Speaker 1: to have some misses too. They're just going to overrate 171 00:07:50,920 --> 00:07:54,440 Speaker 1: some teams. They're going to underrate some teams. So don't 172 00:07:54,480 --> 00:07:56,760 Speaker 1: just look at that as law, like, Okay, well that 173 00:07:56,840 --> 00:07:59,000 Speaker 1: seven seed is definitely better than that ten seed. That's 174 00:07:59,120 --> 00:08:02,080 Speaker 1: not necessarily true. Another thing that you can look at 175 00:08:02,160 --> 00:08:05,560 Speaker 1: is just recent performance. These are college kids, so you 176 00:08:05,600 --> 00:08:08,160 Speaker 1: know they are going to improve as the season goes along, 177 00:08:08,240 --> 00:08:11,640 Speaker 1: some teams, and so just looking at just even game logs, Okay, oh, 178 00:08:11,680 --> 00:08:13,920 Speaker 1: they're doing really good over the past month leading into 179 00:08:13,960 --> 00:08:16,000 Speaker 1: the tournament. That could be a team that's getting hot 180 00:08:16,040 --> 00:08:18,040 Speaker 1: at the right time. That's just you know, instead of 181 00:08:18,080 --> 00:08:20,800 Speaker 1: looking at the whole season, you know, record or standings 182 00:08:20,840 --> 00:08:22,920 Speaker 1: or anything like that, just being another little boost that 183 00:08:22,960 --> 00:08:25,120 Speaker 1: you can look at to improve your odds's. 184 00:08:25,240 --> 00:08:28,320 Speaker 4: That's the bracket pool. The other type of popular March 185 00:08:28,320 --> 00:08:32,440 Speaker 4: Madness pool that people will consume and dive into is survivor. 186 00:08:33,040 --> 00:08:34,880 Speaker 4: Most of them are fairly simple. They are one and 187 00:08:34,960 --> 00:08:37,880 Speaker 4: done meeting. You can pick a team and you can 188 00:08:37,920 --> 00:08:40,360 Speaker 4: only use them once throughout the tournament. You do one 189 00:08:40,360 --> 00:08:43,160 Speaker 4: team each day every day. They are games held. 190 00:08:43,000 --> 00:08:45,480 Speaker 2: As we know, and those whittled down as the tournament 191 00:08:45,520 --> 00:08:45,800 Speaker 2: goes on. 192 00:08:45,840 --> 00:08:49,200 Speaker 4: So from a data perspective, the approach to survivor pool's 193 00:08:49,280 --> 00:08:49,880 Speaker 4: big picture. 194 00:08:50,960 --> 00:08:53,520 Speaker 3: Survivor pool like this is very different from an NFL 195 00:08:53,559 --> 00:08:56,240 Speaker 3: survivor pool, where you have an eighteen week regular season 196 00:08:56,840 --> 00:09:01,080 Speaker 3: where you're almost exclusively taking from among the biggest favorites. 197 00:09:01,120 --> 00:09:03,599 Speaker 3: You're just trying to identify when do I want to 198 00:09:03,640 --> 00:09:05,960 Speaker 3: save this favorite, When do I take a five point 199 00:09:06,040 --> 00:09:08,360 Speaker 3: favorite to save the eight point favorite for later, or 200 00:09:08,400 --> 00:09:11,080 Speaker 3: because the eight point favorite is more popular. That's not 201 00:09:11,160 --> 00:09:14,080 Speaker 3: the case necessarily in March Madness survivor holes. You got 202 00:09:14,120 --> 00:09:16,680 Speaker 3: to think about if you use a team, well you 203 00:09:16,720 --> 00:09:19,000 Speaker 3: wish you had them in the final four, because if 204 00:09:19,080 --> 00:09:21,200 Speaker 3: you run out of options, you're dead, So you got 205 00:09:21,240 --> 00:09:23,280 Speaker 3: to be aware of that. You also have to be 206 00:09:23,320 --> 00:09:26,800 Speaker 3: aware of how others will pick and maybe avoid teams 207 00:09:26,840 --> 00:09:29,559 Speaker 3: that you think are going to be chalk selections, and 208 00:09:29,920 --> 00:09:31,679 Speaker 3: those often come up because people know they need to 209 00:09:31,679 --> 00:09:33,840 Speaker 3: save future value, so they're going to take the seven 210 00:09:34,160 --> 00:09:37,360 Speaker 3: who happens to catch the fifteen, or the six who's 211 00:09:37,640 --> 00:09:40,440 Speaker 3: catching the fourteen. But maybe those teams are only like 212 00:09:40,440 --> 00:09:42,679 Speaker 3: a four or five point favorite, and so everybody loads 213 00:09:42,720 --> 00:09:45,640 Speaker 3: up on them, but they're good teams to maybe avoid 214 00:09:46,440 --> 00:09:48,640 Speaker 3: and pick elsewhere. So you got to think game theory 215 00:09:48,640 --> 00:09:51,160 Speaker 3: in that way. And then later on you may actually 216 00:09:51,160 --> 00:09:52,839 Speaker 3: want to be on a dog in the Elite eight 217 00:09:52,880 --> 00:09:55,439 Speaker 3: in the final four. If you think everybody's going to 218 00:09:55,480 --> 00:09:57,800 Speaker 3: pick from just these two to four games and they're 219 00:09:57,800 --> 00:09:59,280 Speaker 3: all going to be on this team, maybe I want 220 00:09:59,280 --> 00:10:01,400 Speaker 3: to just play opposite and be like, I'm going to 221 00:10:01,480 --> 00:10:04,280 Speaker 3: take my shot. Everybody's going to get wiped out. I'm 222 00:10:04,280 --> 00:10:07,000 Speaker 3: going to advance on that result. And those are all 223 00:10:07,160 --> 00:10:08,680 Speaker 3: kind of ways to think about this pool. 224 00:10:09,000 --> 00:10:11,120 Speaker 1: You can go many different ways. That's what's really fun 225 00:10:11,120 --> 00:10:13,600 Speaker 1: about these survivor pools. You can take a one early 226 00:10:13,720 --> 00:10:16,240 Speaker 1: if you think they're going out in the second round, 227 00:10:16,440 --> 00:10:17,960 Speaker 1: if you think they have a tough eight to nine 228 00:10:18,160 --> 00:10:21,520 Speaker 1: matchup in the next round, just take that one seed. Now, Nope, 229 00:10:21,559 --> 00:10:23,240 Speaker 1: hardly anybody's going to want to burn them in the 230 00:10:23,240 --> 00:10:25,840 Speaker 1: first round, and then just hope that eight to nine 231 00:10:25,840 --> 00:10:28,240 Speaker 1: comes through, and then you're saving somebody on the bottom 232 00:10:28,280 --> 00:10:31,320 Speaker 1: half of that bracket for later. As you're projecting, I 233 00:10:31,360 --> 00:10:34,439 Speaker 1: think making your bracket and then kind of mapping out 234 00:10:34,480 --> 00:10:36,520 Speaker 1: your options as you go along is a good way 235 00:10:36,520 --> 00:10:38,640 Speaker 1: to go about it. And one of the most important 236 00:10:38,640 --> 00:10:40,960 Speaker 1: things in a Jason's point. Most people lose by running 237 00:10:40,960 --> 00:10:43,520 Speaker 1: out of teams, not losing a game. So you just 238 00:10:43,559 --> 00:10:46,200 Speaker 1: actually you get to a Thursday or Friday of Sweet 239 00:10:46,200 --> 00:10:48,600 Speaker 1: sixteen and you have no options because you didn't plan 240 00:10:48,600 --> 00:10:50,959 Speaker 1: ahead or something like that, so you're just out. Even 241 00:10:51,000 --> 00:10:53,160 Speaker 1: if you have an underdog. That's better than having nothing 242 00:10:53,200 --> 00:10:56,120 Speaker 1: at all. So at least plan out and you know, no, Okay, 243 00:10:56,160 --> 00:10:58,160 Speaker 1: these games are on Thursday, these games are on Friday, 244 00:10:58,160 --> 00:11:00,440 Speaker 1: these are on Saturday, these are on Sunday, and then 245 00:11:00,480 --> 00:11:02,680 Speaker 1: the next week. Those games dog get mixed around, they're 246 00:11:02,720 --> 00:11:04,480 Speaker 1: going to be in different days. Make sure you have 247 00:11:04,520 --> 00:11:05,280 Speaker 1: that planned out. 248 00:11:05,520 --> 00:11:07,320 Speaker 3: You don't need to pick out right dogs in the 249 00:11:07,320 --> 00:11:09,480 Speaker 3: first and second round. I think when it comes into 250 00:11:09,480 --> 00:11:12,559 Speaker 3: plays like the Elite eight, the Final four, when when 251 00:11:12,559 --> 00:11:16,040 Speaker 3: everybody's concentrated, that's when you can hammer people and you 252 00:11:16,080 --> 00:11:18,640 Speaker 3: could have like fifty percent of the pool on one team, 253 00:11:18,920 --> 00:11:21,800 Speaker 3: where taking a forty percent, you know, a slight underdog 254 00:11:22,160 --> 00:11:24,600 Speaker 3: gets you big results when it's fifty percent on one 255 00:11:24,920 --> 00:11:26,560 Speaker 3: side and five percent on the other. That's how you 256 00:11:26,600 --> 00:11:29,000 Speaker 3: win pools is by being on the slight dog in 257 00:11:29,040 --> 00:11:30,760 Speaker 3: those cases late in the tournament. 258 00:11:31,000 --> 00:11:33,640 Speaker 4: Give it to me now an example for twenty twenty four, 259 00:11:33,880 --> 00:11:35,080 Speaker 4: maybe some twos and threes. 260 00:11:35,200 --> 00:11:36,360 Speaker 2: Just paint the picture there. 261 00:11:36,400 --> 00:11:39,199 Speaker 3: For this year, we're recording this before the bracket comes out. 262 00:11:39,240 --> 00:11:40,800 Speaker 3: We know who'll probably be seated, we just don't know 263 00:11:40,880 --> 00:11:43,240 Speaker 3: the combinations. I think you're going to have a generally 264 00:11:44,200 --> 00:11:47,120 Speaker 3: strong group of ones this year. In my opinion, what 265 00:11:47,160 --> 00:11:49,520 Speaker 3: you're looking at is teams like maybe a Baylor as 266 00:11:49,559 --> 00:11:51,959 Speaker 3: a three seed might be a good You take the 267 00:11:52,040 --> 00:11:55,080 Speaker 3: risk they don't lose to the fourteen. I'm willing to 268 00:11:55,120 --> 00:11:57,400 Speaker 3: take a chance that their defense isn't good enough to 269 00:11:57,400 --> 00:11:59,840 Speaker 3: get them to the final four. I mean Alabama to 270 00:11:59,840 --> 00:12:02,320 Speaker 3: me a risk in the first round because of that defense, 271 00:12:02,440 --> 00:12:04,640 Speaker 3: But that'd be the kind of team I'd be at 272 00:12:04,720 --> 00:12:07,840 Speaker 3: least considering because I don't think they have the defense 273 00:12:07,880 --> 00:12:10,360 Speaker 3: to make the run through three or four rounds. Those 274 00:12:10,400 --> 00:12:11,880 Speaker 3: are teams maybe to look at early. 275 00:12:12,360 --> 00:12:15,040 Speaker 4: Another one that comes to mind maybe early on Marquette 276 00:12:15,080 --> 00:12:17,720 Speaker 4: with Colet got and they get by a fifteen if 277 00:12:17,720 --> 00:12:20,559 Speaker 4: they're a two seed without him and assuming he might 278 00:12:20,559 --> 00:12:24,000 Speaker 4: be look, like Jason said, we're recording before selection Sunday, 279 00:12:24,000 --> 00:12:27,040 Speaker 4: the bracket's not even set, but just just thinking out loud, Yeah. 280 00:12:26,840 --> 00:12:29,120 Speaker 1: It might be Kansas again because they're dealing with a 281 00:12:29,120 --> 00:12:31,440 Speaker 1: lot of injuries, but they're projected to be like a 282 00:12:31,480 --> 00:12:33,960 Speaker 1: three seed. So that might be a team that you 283 00:12:33,960 --> 00:12:36,079 Speaker 1: can use early in a survivor pool and then be like, Okay, 284 00:12:36,080 --> 00:12:38,280 Speaker 1: I don't trust them to get you know, two or 285 00:12:38,280 --> 00:12:40,400 Speaker 1: three games down the line at all. I think the 286 00:12:40,440 --> 00:12:44,199 Speaker 1: one seeds are very strong, and not just that, but stronger, 287 00:12:44,440 --> 00:12:47,079 Speaker 1: like there's a clear separation between like the top three 288 00:12:47,160 --> 00:12:49,600 Speaker 1: or four teams and then the next. But like he said, 289 00:12:49,600 --> 00:12:51,240 Speaker 1: we have to wait for the bracket. Once it does, 290 00:12:51,320 --> 00:12:53,400 Speaker 1: there's gonna be one of these regions we're gonna be. Oh, 291 00:12:53,400 --> 00:12:56,080 Speaker 1: that's the bracket of death, and that's the one that 292 00:12:56,120 --> 00:12:57,800 Speaker 1: you want to try to use, one of those earth 293 00:12:57,880 --> 00:13:00,680 Speaker 1: those higher seeds, because I'll make. 294 00:13:00,559 --> 00:13:01,880 Speaker 2: It chasing quickly. 295 00:13:01,960 --> 00:13:04,840 Speaker 4: How long is an average entry expected to last in Survivor? 296 00:13:05,559 --> 00:13:07,080 Speaker 3: I mean it depends on the year, but if you 297 00:13:07,120 --> 00:13:08,760 Speaker 3: consider that people are going to be spread out on 298 00:13:08,920 --> 00:13:12,040 Speaker 3: sixty to seventy percent winners in the first round, similar 299 00:13:12,080 --> 00:13:14,000 Speaker 3: in the second, by the second round, you're going to 300 00:13:14,040 --> 00:13:16,440 Speaker 3: be probably at half the pool size. And to the 301 00:13:16,480 --> 00:13:19,040 Speaker 3: scheduling part, real quick, you got the committee doesn't do 302 00:13:19,080 --> 00:13:21,199 Speaker 3: us any favors because it used to be if you 303 00:13:21,240 --> 00:13:23,760 Speaker 3: think back to when we were younger, if you played 304 00:13:23,760 --> 00:13:26,480 Speaker 3: in the West, you'd play on Thursday, like the first weekend, 305 00:13:26,520 --> 00:13:28,120 Speaker 3: and then you'd also play on the same day as 306 00:13:28,120 --> 00:13:31,880 Speaker 3: all your opponents the next weekend. Now it's mis mish mash, 307 00:13:32,080 --> 00:13:33,960 Speaker 3: and so you might have a team that plays Thursday 308 00:13:34,000 --> 00:13:37,959 Speaker 3: Saturday in week one, but if they advance, their playing 309 00:13:37,960 --> 00:13:40,640 Speaker 3: Friday Sunday, and half the teams in their region are 310 00:13:40,800 --> 00:13:42,640 Speaker 3: played on a different day, and so you got to 311 00:13:42,679 --> 00:13:45,000 Speaker 3: really plan ahead, or you could use all the wrong 312 00:13:45,080 --> 00:13:47,800 Speaker 3: teams the first week that all happened to play the 313 00:13:47,840 --> 00:13:50,320 Speaker 3: same day in Sweet sixteen. Something to keep in mind 314 00:13:50,400 --> 00:13:53,160 Speaker 3: is to keep in mind the schedule is not consistent 315 00:13:53,240 --> 00:13:56,880 Speaker 3: from week to week on when when teams play. 316 00:13:56,160 --> 00:13:59,840 Speaker 1: Whether it's the normal bracket or Survivor, you should definitely 317 00:13:59,840 --> 00:14:03,000 Speaker 1: have Ricky Bobby mentality of if you ain't first, your last, 318 00:14:03,240 --> 00:14:06,439 Speaker 1: because you're likely going to lose anyway, but when you're right, 319 00:14:06,559 --> 00:14:08,840 Speaker 1: you want to be up there for that first prize. 320 00:14:09,200 --> 00:14:12,280 Speaker 1: Don't be shy taking risks. These are the perfect types 321 00:14:12,320 --> 00:14:16,440 Speaker 1: of contest to take massive risks and hopefully hit massive rewards. 322 00:14:16,800 --> 00:14:19,360 Speaker 4: What are some of the big mistakes that pool players make? 323 00:14:19,560 --> 00:14:22,440 Speaker 4: So risks risks can go either way, but that's part 324 00:14:22,440 --> 00:14:25,520 Speaker 4: of the deal. What are some other mistakes Jason that 325 00:14:25,520 --> 00:14:26,680 Speaker 4: folks should try to avoid. 326 00:14:27,080 --> 00:14:28,720 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean the main one, like we said in 327 00:14:28,760 --> 00:14:31,520 Speaker 3: Survivor Pool is planning ahead and kind of understanding the 328 00:14:31,560 --> 00:14:34,080 Speaker 3: schedule in which teams you want because if you run, 329 00:14:34,160 --> 00:14:36,240 Speaker 3: if you're in a pool of any size, let's say, 330 00:14:36,240 --> 00:14:39,360 Speaker 3: if you're over one hundred people one hundred entries, you're 331 00:14:39,400 --> 00:14:42,280 Speaker 3: almost certainly going to need to have a pick that 332 00:14:42,360 --> 00:14:44,400 Speaker 3: at least gets you to the title game, and a 333 00:14:44,400 --> 00:14:46,120 Speaker 3: lot of teams will run out of picks at that 334 00:14:46,160 --> 00:14:50,600 Speaker 3: final four, but that happens, and again, try to identify 335 00:14:50,760 --> 00:14:53,240 Speaker 3: where the masses are going to go and avoid the 336 00:14:53,280 --> 00:14:57,960 Speaker 3: completely obvious picks. You win pools by not following the crowd. 337 00:14:58,080 --> 00:15:00,520 Speaker 3: You got to kind of have a sense of which 338 00:15:00,600 --> 00:15:02,040 Speaker 3: teams people will load up on. 339 00:15:02,520 --> 00:15:04,360 Speaker 2: Travis big mistakes that you try to avoid. 340 00:15:05,080 --> 00:15:07,560 Speaker 1: Don't make any rules for yourself. I see a lot 341 00:15:07,600 --> 00:15:09,040 Speaker 1: of people, Oh, you have to have at least one 342 00:15:09,120 --> 00:15:11,080 Speaker 1: twelve over a five, or you have to have a 343 00:15:11,120 --> 00:15:15,040 Speaker 1: double digit seed getting to the sweet sixteen. Every bracket 344 00:15:15,280 --> 00:15:17,160 Speaker 1: is its own animal. We don't have enough of a 345 00:15:17,240 --> 00:15:21,040 Speaker 1: sample size, and with the game evolving the way it has, 346 00:15:21,360 --> 00:15:22,800 Speaker 1: I mean it used to be you never take a 347 00:15:22,840 --> 00:15:25,240 Speaker 1: sixteen over one. Right now we've seen it a couple 348 00:15:25,280 --> 00:15:27,960 Speaker 1: of times if that's happened. So these rules are meant 349 00:15:28,000 --> 00:15:30,240 Speaker 1: to be broken. So don't don't get done with your 350 00:15:30,240 --> 00:15:32,040 Speaker 1: brack and be like, oh, well I didn't follow this rule, 351 00:15:32,080 --> 00:15:33,760 Speaker 1: so I have to change it or anything like that. 352 00:15:33,800 --> 00:15:37,320 Speaker 1: Don't get stuck in that, and also spend more time 353 00:15:37,400 --> 00:15:40,600 Speaker 1: thinking about your champion than what twelve five upsets going 354 00:15:40,680 --> 00:15:44,160 Speaker 1: to happen. For most brackets. Getting the champion right is 355 00:15:44,200 --> 00:15:46,360 Speaker 1: the same thing as getting the entire first round right 356 00:15:46,680 --> 00:15:49,000 Speaker 1: in terms of points. We spend way too much time 357 00:15:49,080 --> 00:15:51,640 Speaker 1: worrying about these first round upsets when in the most 358 00:15:51,680 --> 00:15:55,040 Speaker 1: scoring systems they usually don't end up mattering, except maybe 359 00:15:55,040 --> 00:15:56,440 Speaker 1: for some tiebreakers and things like that. 360 00:15:57,280 --> 00:15:59,320 Speaker 3: At some point in survivoral bules, you become what I 361 00:15:59,360 --> 00:16:02,400 Speaker 3: would call you have a path that is available to you, 362 00:16:02,440 --> 00:16:03,840 Speaker 3: and that's pretty much the path you're gonna have to 363 00:16:03,920 --> 00:16:05,920 Speaker 3: be on. You know you're gonna have to take the 364 00:16:05,960 --> 00:16:09,320 Speaker 3: winner of Miami Texas. You run out options that usually 365 00:16:09,320 --> 00:16:11,840 Speaker 3: happens around the suite from sweet sixteen to a lead eight. 366 00:16:12,000 --> 00:16:13,760 Speaker 3: At some point you just got to make the best 367 00:16:13,760 --> 00:16:16,000 Speaker 3: call you can, take the chances you have to take, 368 00:16:16,160 --> 00:16:17,640 Speaker 3: and then live with the results. 369 00:16:18,000 --> 00:16:19,600 Speaker 1: Regular brackets, if you do want to go with a 370 00:16:19,680 --> 00:16:22,520 Speaker 1: chalky champion, you got to get weird everywhere else. Don't 371 00:16:22,560 --> 00:16:25,080 Speaker 1: have three one seeds in the final four, because there's 372 00:16:25,120 --> 00:16:27,160 Speaker 1: going to be a lot of brackets that look exactly 373 00:16:27,200 --> 00:16:29,080 Speaker 1: like that. So if you do want to take Yukon, 374 00:16:29,720 --> 00:16:33,320 Speaker 1: have some kind of outlier four seed, five seeds, six seeds, 375 00:16:33,440 --> 00:16:37,200 Speaker 1: getting to the final four. That can differentiate you from 376 00:16:37,360 --> 00:16:40,000 Speaker 1: the plethora of Yukon brackets that you're going to see. 377 00:16:40,440 --> 00:16:42,880 Speaker 3: I'll give you an example along those lines, because you 378 00:16:42,880 --> 00:16:44,960 Speaker 3: could you could win a small pool by taking Yukon 379 00:16:45,160 --> 00:16:46,840 Speaker 3: and I'm going to beat them elsewhere in the bracket. 380 00:16:46,920 --> 00:16:48,760 Speaker 3: Like you could take an Auburn, like as you mentioned, 381 00:16:48,760 --> 00:16:50,520 Speaker 3: a four seed. If Auburn's a four, you could have 382 00:16:50,520 --> 00:16:52,960 Speaker 3: a Yukon Auburn and you basically have a Yukon or 383 00:16:53,000 --> 00:16:56,280 Speaker 3: Auburn bracket that wins that pool because you won't have 384 00:16:56,400 --> 00:17:00,080 Speaker 3: enough entries where it's unlikely anybody actually picked Auburn in 385 00:17:00,160 --> 00:17:02,280 Speaker 3: the title if it's small enough. So that's actually a 386 00:17:02,320 --> 00:17:05,000 Speaker 3: strategy in small pools is to find that team as 387 00:17:05,080 --> 00:17:08,600 Speaker 3: the second championship team that you think won't be picked 388 00:17:08,680 --> 00:17:11,280 Speaker 3: but has a good shot. It's actually a good small 389 00:17:11,280 --> 00:17:12,680 Speaker 3: pool strategy in some ways. 390 00:17:13,200 --> 00:17:16,720 Speaker 4: This podcast is proudly presented by BETMGM used bonus code 391 00:17:16,760 --> 00:17:18,879 Speaker 4: action when signing up to get up to one hundred 392 00:17:18,880 --> 00:17:21,520 Speaker 4: and fifty eight dollars in bonus bets when you bet 393 00:17:21,520 --> 00:17:29,680 Speaker 4: five dollars for new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, 394 00:17:29,720 --> 00:17:34,680 Speaker 4: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming. 395 00:17:34,920 --> 00:17:37,399 Speaker 2: Terms and conditions apply. Must be twenty one or older. 396 00:17:37,600 --> 00:17:41,119 Speaker 2: Gambling problem call one eight hundred gambler Quick heads up. 397 00:17:41,119 --> 00:17:43,480 Speaker 4: The Great State of North Carolina has just launched legal 398 00:17:43,520 --> 00:17:45,360 Speaker 4: sports betting this week, so if you're in the tar 399 00:17:45,400 --> 00:17:47,880 Speaker 4: Heel State, take advantage of the best sign up offers 400 00:17:47,880 --> 00:17:50,600 Speaker 4: across every sports book. A link to every one of 401 00:17:50,600 --> 00:17:54,040 Speaker 4: those offers can be found in this episode description, So 402 00:17:54,080 --> 00:17:55,760 Speaker 4: if you're in North Carolina, check out. 403 00:17:55,560 --> 00:17:57,440 Speaker 2: That link in the episode description. 404 00:17:58,520 --> 00:18:01,760 Speaker 4: Get inside the mind the lens of the other participants. 405 00:18:02,200 --> 00:18:04,680 Speaker 4: Do they stay too focused on their own entry and 406 00:18:05,119 --> 00:18:07,399 Speaker 4: should they ignore what everyone else is doing. Let's go 407 00:18:07,480 --> 00:18:09,119 Speaker 4: to Travis first on this one, because you kind of 408 00:18:09,119 --> 00:18:12,359 Speaker 4: said that you ain't first your last kind of mentality, Well, 409 00:18:12,400 --> 00:18:12,920 Speaker 4: you have. 410 00:18:12,920 --> 00:18:15,640 Speaker 1: To know what they're doing and just do the opposite almost, 411 00:18:15,840 --> 00:18:18,439 Speaker 1: how do you get different enough? Well, still giving your 412 00:18:18,440 --> 00:18:20,360 Speaker 1: shot a chance that Okay, I did get all these 413 00:18:20,359 --> 00:18:22,520 Speaker 1: games right and now I can win. You do want 414 00:18:22,520 --> 00:18:24,920 Speaker 1: to know what they're doing, You just don't want to follow. 415 00:18:25,000 --> 00:18:26,679 Speaker 1: If you just follow the leader, you're just that's what 416 00:18:26,680 --> 00:18:28,280 Speaker 1: you're going to do, and it's they're going to be 417 00:18:28,320 --> 00:18:30,280 Speaker 1: in a big pile at the end with everybody. It's 418 00:18:30,320 --> 00:18:32,680 Speaker 1: a lot easier to get really different in the later 419 00:18:32,800 --> 00:18:35,879 Speaker 1: rounds and just totally differentiate yourself. Now you're in that 420 00:18:35,920 --> 00:18:38,320 Speaker 1: one percent that got that right, it's a lot easier 421 00:18:38,359 --> 00:18:39,280 Speaker 1: to win the pool that way. 422 00:18:40,080 --> 00:18:43,879 Speaker 3: Don't focus on individual upsets. We've already talked about that. Like, 423 00:18:43,960 --> 00:18:45,800 Speaker 3: I think people get bogged down where they're like, oh, 424 00:18:45,800 --> 00:18:47,800 Speaker 3: I want to pick this upset, and then they get 425 00:18:47,800 --> 00:18:48,919 Speaker 3: to the end of the bracket and they're like, oh, 426 00:18:49,000 --> 00:18:50,600 Speaker 3: why do I have that team in the final four. 427 00:18:50,800 --> 00:18:53,920 Speaker 3: Don't think that way. As Travis already mentioned, the most 428 00:18:53,920 --> 00:18:57,000 Speaker 3: important points are the champion, the finalist, the final four. 429 00:18:57,040 --> 00:19:01,119 Speaker 3: Picks work backwards Oftentimes, if I'm going to pick an upset, 430 00:19:01,119 --> 00:19:03,359 Speaker 3: it's because I've already worked backwards. I'm like, well, I 431 00:19:03,440 --> 00:19:05,679 Speaker 3: might as well take a shot on that team because 432 00:19:05,680 --> 00:19:08,720 Speaker 3: I think they're close enough and they're unpopular, and I 433 00:19:09,080 --> 00:19:11,600 Speaker 3: don't need the team they're playing to advance anyway. Think 434 00:19:11,640 --> 00:19:16,040 Speaker 3: bigger picture in those senses, how are others picking? Because 435 00:19:16,040 --> 00:19:18,600 Speaker 3: that's how you win pools by getting points other people. 436 00:19:18,640 --> 00:19:22,360 Speaker 3: Don't you lose pools by losing points by taking too 437 00:19:22,440 --> 00:19:25,400 Speaker 3: much risk to be unique when the odds are bad, 438 00:19:25,640 --> 00:19:27,919 Speaker 3: Like you don't actually have to pick like the eleven 439 00:19:27,960 --> 00:19:29,840 Speaker 3: seed to make the final four because you made in 440 00:19:29,880 --> 00:19:32,000 Speaker 3: a pool where nobody picked them. And that's not the 441 00:19:32,040 --> 00:19:33,800 Speaker 3: picks that kill you. The picks that kill you. Or 442 00:19:33,840 --> 00:19:36,040 Speaker 3: if the three seed that you did not have advancing 443 00:19:36,080 --> 00:19:39,119 Speaker 3: makes it and everybody else is getting points on that 444 00:19:39,119 --> 00:19:41,639 Speaker 3: popular pick, that's that's where you get beaten. Pools is 445 00:19:41,680 --> 00:19:44,359 Speaker 3: by the picks you didn't make that are actually semi 446 00:19:44,400 --> 00:19:47,639 Speaker 3: popular and had a chance and you somehow didn't cover it. 447 00:19:47,720 --> 00:19:50,960 Speaker 3: But so don't worry about making extreme long shots, take 448 00:19:51,040 --> 00:19:53,159 Speaker 3: good value bets out of those, and then live with 449 00:19:53,200 --> 00:19:53,720 Speaker 3: the results. 450 00:19:54,280 --> 00:19:56,119 Speaker 2: The picks you didn't make might be the ones that 451 00:19:56,160 --> 00:19:57,280 Speaker 2: really come back and bite you. 452 00:19:57,760 --> 00:20:00,920 Speaker 3: Travis already said, don't look at sea, look at each 453 00:20:00,960 --> 00:20:03,600 Speaker 3: year differently. That's one of our manterers. Every year is different. 454 00:20:03,880 --> 00:20:06,280 Speaker 3: We may see people go crazy with upset picks because 455 00:20:06,280 --> 00:20:08,120 Speaker 3: we had no number one seeds last year. I don't 456 00:20:08,119 --> 00:20:10,640 Speaker 3: know if that's true, but that's a possibility. We may 457 00:20:10,640 --> 00:20:14,399 Speaker 3: see Ukon be super popular because the other contenders don't 458 00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:17,879 Speaker 3: have a history of winning titles. Those are possibilities, but 459 00:20:17,920 --> 00:20:20,920 Speaker 3: we'll see where the data shakes out after selection Sunday, 460 00:20:21,160 --> 00:20:23,720 Speaker 3: so just keep your mind open. We also take into 461 00:20:23,800 --> 00:20:26,840 Speaker 3: account what teams have done. I'm making team notes, I'm 462 00:20:26,920 --> 00:20:30,080 Speaker 3: doing research. I'm looking at the stuff like lineup changes. 463 00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:33,680 Speaker 3: Don't just go blindly go off of our power ratings 464 00:20:33,760 --> 00:20:36,720 Speaker 3: or any like a raw rating, a Ken palm. Those 465 00:20:36,760 --> 00:20:39,240 Speaker 3: things aren't take into account injuries. Look into the data, 466 00:20:39,680 --> 00:20:42,200 Speaker 3: or trust someone like us who is looking into the 467 00:20:42,320 --> 00:20:44,720 Speaker 3: data to come up with our simulations. Those are things 468 00:20:44,720 --> 00:20:46,960 Speaker 3: that I would give advice on. Is dig a little 469 00:20:47,000 --> 00:20:49,000 Speaker 3: deeper and don't get caught in narratives. 470 00:20:49,440 --> 00:20:50,840 Speaker 2: Travis final words of wisdom. 471 00:20:51,240 --> 00:20:54,040 Speaker 1: I low what Jason said about building inside out. I 472 00:20:54,080 --> 00:20:55,439 Speaker 1: think if you take nothing in the way, that's the 473 00:20:55,480 --> 00:20:57,359 Speaker 1: best way to build a bracket. That's how I build 474 00:20:57,480 --> 00:21:00,119 Speaker 1: every one of my brackets. Select your champion first, like 475 00:21:00,200 --> 00:21:02,960 Speaker 1: your final four next, and then go out from there. 476 00:21:03,320 --> 00:21:05,520 Speaker 1: Don't play the x's and o's. Guy, well, okay, what's 477 00:21:05,560 --> 00:21:07,919 Speaker 1: this matchup? Okay, what's this matchup? And then just do 478 00:21:08,040 --> 00:21:11,280 Speaker 1: it in sequential order. Again, like we've said multiple times 479 00:21:11,280 --> 00:21:13,760 Speaker 1: that you're not worried about that. You want to start 480 00:21:13,800 --> 00:21:16,200 Speaker 1: with the pick that matters the most and then go 481 00:21:16,240 --> 00:21:16,840 Speaker 1: out from there. 482 00:21:17,320 --> 00:21:19,719 Speaker 4: I'll be honest, that's scheduling. Thing Jason brought up has 483 00:21:19,760 --> 00:21:21,520 Speaker 4: got my brain in a pretzel right now. 484 00:21:21,680 --> 00:21:22,720 Speaker 2: That's fascinating. 485 00:21:22,960 --> 00:21:26,560 Speaker 3: I will write an article next before the tournament starts 486 00:21:26,560 --> 00:21:29,159 Speaker 3: where I lay out the grid of like the teams 487 00:21:29,160 --> 00:21:32,320 Speaker 3: in this pot on Thursday, we'll go to this day 488 00:21:32,359 --> 00:21:35,480 Speaker 3: on the second week. Here's the top seed in that group. 489 00:21:36,080 --> 00:21:38,680 Speaker 3: So you know, like this is a Thursday and second 490 00:21:38,680 --> 00:21:40,760 Speaker 3: week Friday team. I will lay that out because I 491 00:21:40,760 --> 00:21:43,240 Speaker 3: think it's important to see as you plan out your survivor. 492 00:21:43,600 --> 00:21:45,280 Speaker 2: Thanks both you, Jason Lisk, Travis Reed. 493 00:21:45,320 --> 00:21:48,080 Speaker 4: Travis contributes to us at Action Network and Jason Lisk, 494 00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:50,320 Speaker 4: we appreciate you stopping buy a friend of the podcast 495 00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:53,159 Speaker 4: and over at poolgenius dot com. Again, folks, do not 496 00:21:53,359 --> 00:21:57,320 Speaker 4: forget that pool Genius is offering special pricing to our 497 00:21:57,359 --> 00:22:01,280 Speaker 4: listeners fifty five percent off packages that include food, picks 498 00:22:01,320 --> 00:22:05,080 Speaker 4: and tools for March Madness, football and golf pools. So 499 00:22:05,080 --> 00:22:06,800 Speaker 4: if you want to get an edge in your NCAA 500 00:22:06,880 --> 00:22:11,639 Speaker 4: bracket or tournament survivor, pool poolgenius dot com slash Action. 501 00:22:12,160 --> 00:22:15,000 Speaker 4: We will return here on the Action Network Podcast in 502 00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:18,919 Speaker 4: the coming weeks with some March Madness player prop episodes, 503 00:22:19,119 --> 00:22:21,800 Speaker 4: but for our primary March Madness betting coverage over at 504 00:22:21,800 --> 00:22:26,040 Speaker 4: Action Network, including selection Sunday shows reactions, be sure to 505 00:22:26,080 --> 00:22:29,280 Speaker 4: check out Big Bets on Campus. That podcast will also 506 00:22:29,359 --> 00:22:30,840 Speaker 4: have plenty to dive into. 507 00:22:30,920 --> 00:22:31,720 Speaker 2: Thanks again for listening. 508 00:22:31,720 --> 00:22:33,920 Speaker 4: We'll see you right back here next time on the 509 00:22:33,960 --> 00:22:38,960 Speaker 4: Action Network Podcast presented by BETMGM, good luck and Happy March. 510 00:22:43,960 --> 00:22:48,480 Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or 511 00:22:48,480 --> 00:22:51,280 Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is 512 00:22:51,320 --> 00:22:54,440 Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler