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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg P and L Podcast. I'm pim Fox.

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Speaker 1: Along with my co host Lisa Abramowitz. Each day we

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Speaker 1: bring you the most important, noteworthy, and useful interviews for

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Speaker 1: you and your money, whether you're at the grocery store

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Speaker 1: or the trading floor. Find the Bloomberg P M L

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Speaker 1: Podcast on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, and Bloomberg dot com. When

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Speaker 1: is the decline in the value of a currency a crisis, Well,

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Speaker 1: we'll find out from Dr winn Thin, Global Head of

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Speaker 1: Emerging Markets FX at Brown Brothers Harriman. Win Thin, Thanks

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Speaker 1: very much for being with us. I want you to

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Speaker 1: give us your thoughts about what's happening with Turkey after

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Speaker 1: we see the Turkish lea or a slide more than

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Speaker 1: three percent against the US dollar trading right now at

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Speaker 1: four point eight six. Yes. Um, we've been seeing a

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Speaker 1: broad based emerging market sell off really since the quarter

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Speaker 1: began actually back in late March. UM. But what we've seen, uh,

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Speaker 1: the selling presidents have intensified for certain countries. Argentina was

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Speaker 1: was sort of the first to come under the gun,

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Speaker 1: and now Turkey is is being sold. Now Here's the

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Speaker 1: difference to me is a critical difference. Both both starffer

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Speaker 1: from very weak fundamentals um politically consider etcetera. But Argentina

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Speaker 1: made some bold moves over the last time of weeks

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Speaker 1: to try and and stop throughout they hike grace, announce

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Speaker 1: some fiscal tightening and they said they would go to

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Speaker 1: the IRONMAF for standby agreement. You know, all very orthodox

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Speaker 1: and that's what Mr mcweys President mcwew is known for.

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Speaker 1: But Turkey's is really on the other end of spectrum.

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Speaker 1: Mr Urdwan, President Urdwan has has very rocky relations with

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Speaker 1: it with the West. Uh. He's always talking about the

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Speaker 1: you know, Western efforts to stabilize this country. He wants

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Speaker 1: a lower interest rate on hike them. So there's really

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Speaker 1: to me a stark difference UM in the post response.

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Speaker 1: And because the Central Mark has done nothing yet um,

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Speaker 1: the markets that have really green light to sell the

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Speaker 1: leer at this point. So uh, when thank you so

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Speaker 1: much for being with us, because I'm struggling to understand

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Speaker 1: the situation in Turkey because frankly, the economy has been

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Speaker 1: growing at a pretty quick clip that seems to be

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Speaker 1: a lot of strength. There is this just simply a

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Speaker 1: political crisis with President urduan being opposite in the face

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Speaker 1: of an election trying to in gender support somehow with

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Speaker 1: mass inflation. Well, you know, it's a little bit of everything. UM.

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Speaker 1: The one I think you are correct that the economy

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Speaker 1: is doing well. In fact, the many investors I think

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Speaker 1: is doing too well. It's overheating. The inflation is up

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Speaker 1: close to eleven percent UM, the current account definite is

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Speaker 1: blowing out UM, and the center markets is basically stating

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Speaker 1: on its hands as its current is weaken again within

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Speaker 1: the context of broad based e M weakness. You know,

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Speaker 1: in a rising US interest rate environment, UM emerging market

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Speaker 1: typically comes under stress, and it's avoided for much of

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Speaker 1: this past year, but it's really come back with a vengeance.

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Speaker 1: Countries that have high degree at donal financing need to

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Speaker 1: either the current account or short term external debt. Those

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Speaker 1: are countries like Turkey that are very, very vulnerable in

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Speaker 1: this environment. Argentina is also there. So to me, the

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Speaker 1: interesting thing is that if you look at a year

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Speaker 1: to date UM performance I always do this on your

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Speaker 1: w c RS page for emerging markets, you'll see a

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Speaker 1: wide wide DIVERSIONCE you've got four or five currencies that

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Speaker 1: are actually up on the air, Columbian pace, Soach, Chinese

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Speaker 1: jun Masian ring gatt taiba um. And yet you've got

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Speaker 1: some that are down well, I guess the argent past

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Speaker 1: dictually down your date Brazilian realium of ten percent. So

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Speaker 1: you see some real divergences and thinks the way it

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Speaker 1: should work, that is, the countries with the stronger fundamentals

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Speaker 1: are going to outperform. That they may come under some

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Speaker 1: selling pressure, but they will do realtive, do relatively better

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Speaker 1: than countries with weaker fundamentals. And that's what we've really

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Speaker 1: have seen unfolding this higher dollar, higher US rate environment.

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Speaker 1: I wonder at what point this dispersion will break down,

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Speaker 1: because we've seen a lot of money go into emerging

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Speaker 1: markets over the past five years, into indexed funds that

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Speaker 1: don't delineate between one country and another. And now you

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Speaker 1: have a growing chorus of academics and uh AN investment

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Speaker 1: managers saying that they are concerned about an emerging markets crisis,

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Speaker 1: the latest being Paul Krugman today tweeting it's become at

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Speaker 1: least possible to envision the classic style reinforcing crisis emerging

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Speaker 1: market currency falls causing corporate debt to blow up, causing

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Speaker 1: stress on the economy, causing further fall in the currency.

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Speaker 1: Do you agree, I'm not quite embarished, And there's one

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Speaker 1: big reason for that. Unlike I would say, even um,

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Speaker 1: most emerging Martin currencies are not floating or manage floats um.

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Speaker 1: In the past, we saw Maxican Tekila crisis with the

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Speaker 1: Asian crisis, or we had a right of pigs come

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Speaker 1: under stress and then eventually break, and those are much

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Speaker 1: more destabilizing, much more stressful on economy because you're going

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Speaker 1: from a fixed exchange rate to you know, a fully

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Speaker 1: floating I would say probably thinking exchange rates. To me,

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Speaker 1: the floating exchange rates are are are have been doing

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Speaker 1: a job's they worked in a shock absorber. External shocks

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Speaker 1: are reflecting weaker currency and they allow over time, these

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Speaker 1: these countries and emerging countries to adjust their behavior. They're

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Speaker 1: barring their hedging, et cetera over a more extended amount

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Speaker 1: of time. So you know, to me, the weaker currencies

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Speaker 1: are doing their job. This is what it's supposed to happen.

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Speaker 1: Of course, we'll see some bankruptcies. I'm sure we'll see

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Speaker 1: some de fause in the corporate set. Uh, sphere. But

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Speaker 1: that's just that's just part of the game. I think

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Speaker 1: that's one of the problems that UM people were miss

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Speaker 1: pricing EM during this whole secure rate environment and now

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Speaker 1: were repricing e M and the ones that we had

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Speaker 1: the worst fundamentals, where we're sort of the most miss

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Speaker 1: priced and we have got we're sort of early in

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Speaker 1: this game. Who gets repriced next? Indonesia, Brazil, Well, uh, Brazil,

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Speaker 1: I would say Brazil in Mexico are are sort of

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Speaker 1: in the sites because we've got heightened political risk for

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Speaker 1: both elections coming up, as well as uh, somewhat weak fundamentals.

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Speaker 1: So you know, again, you know, we're not talking about

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Speaker 1: a huge um you know, devaluation, sort of default evaluations.

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Speaker 1: So now we are seeing, you know, under this floating

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Speaker 1: stange red regime, we're seeing these currencies with poor fundamentals

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Speaker 1: come under pressure. So I would probably throw in South Africa,

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Speaker 1: perhaps Russia as well. India. Indonesia are sort of the

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Speaker 1: worst in Asia, but not as really not as bad

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Speaker 1: as what we're talking about in our c Argentina and Turkey.

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Speaker 1: But you know, again, the microscope was on all these countries. UM,

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Speaker 1: you know, I would just uh tell our clients and

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Speaker 1: invested in general to be discerning, to look at the

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Speaker 1: fundamentals and realize that, you know, you can't tell everything

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Speaker 1: on masks. Some some should do better than others, some

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Speaker 1: should do worse than others. And that's that's really part

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Speaker 1: of the fundamental story that's lost sometimes when there's a

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Speaker 1: lot of liquidity being thrown around. Dr Winton, thank you

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Speaker 1: so much for being with us. A really important day

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Speaker 1: for you to be here giving us some insight. Dr Winton,

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Speaker 1: Global Head of Emerging Markets f X for Brown Brothers

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Speaker 1: Harriman in New York. I'm sure this is a very

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Speaker 1: interesting time for Dr Wintin as well as all those

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Speaker 1: dealing in emerging markets, considering the volatility that we've seen

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Speaker 1: throughout the spectrum of currencies from Turkey to Argentina. This

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Speaker 1: is Bloomberg Markets divisions, potential divisions among Federal Reserve officials

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Speaker 1: over the yield curve and inflation that will be under

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Speaker 1: the spotlight today when the U. S. Central Bank publishes

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Speaker 1: minutes of its last policy meeting. Here to tell us

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Speaker 1: more about this situation is Matt Miskin. He is a

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Speaker 1: market strategist for John Hancock Investments. He's based in Boston,

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Speaker 1: but he joins us here in our eleven three oh studios. Matt,

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Speaker 1: A pleasure to have you with us one if you

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Speaker 1: could offer your thoughts. Are are you having internal divisions

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Speaker 1: about the yield curve and inflation? And you would I

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Speaker 1: think you'd be accurate in describing that. A lot of

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Speaker 1: invest just feel divided as well. Yeah, actually we have

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Speaker 1: very little division. That we believe that of the biggest

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Speaker 1: risks in the market today is if they get that

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Speaker 1: third rate hike in from here, making it a fourth

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Speaker 1: rate hike. If you do the math on that and

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Speaker 1: where the Fed funds rate will stand and the two

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Speaker 1: year yield will stand on that, we could be looking

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Speaker 1: at a three point three percent to year yield by

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Speaker 1: year end the tenure treasury standing at just over three

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Speaker 1: percent today. That would represent an inverted yield curve to us,

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Speaker 1: that risk could be minimized if the Fed does go

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Speaker 1: slowly and pauses on one of those rate hikes throughout

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Speaker 1: the course of the year. We're gonna hear about that

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Speaker 1: when the minutes are released at two and try to

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Speaker 1: get inside for that June meeting that is that is

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Speaker 1: coming up very soon. So you think that it's really

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Speaker 1: important with these meeting minutes. Say from that perspective, well,

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Speaker 1: the symmetry around the inflation projection is critical. If they

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Speaker 1: can let that inflation tick above that two percent target

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Speaker 1: and be okay with that, then that kind of sets

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Speaker 1: the pathway for taking one rate hike off that table.

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Speaker 1: So it is a start of that. Now is there

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Speaker 1: going to be market moving I mean, we're talking the

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Speaker 1: main meeting, but what investors and analysts are gonna be

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Speaker 1: doing is trying to extrapolate do they go in June

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Speaker 1: and does the summary of economic projections in the June

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Speaker 1: meeting set that up? Okay, I want to make sure

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Speaker 1: I really understand this. In other words, you're saying, if

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Speaker 1: the Federals are of hikes four times this year, we

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Speaker 1: will be looking at an inverted yield curve in short

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Speaker 1: order by your end. If you do the math of

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Speaker 1: the eight basis points between the Fed funds rate in

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Speaker 1: the two year, you put that on two and a half,

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Speaker 1: which is what the Fed funds rate will be by

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Speaker 1: your end. If they do four rate x for the year,

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Speaker 1: that gets you three thirty. So does that mean that

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Speaker 1: we head into recession next year? Typically going back over

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Speaker 1: the last seven recessions, it has been a forewarning of

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Speaker 1: a forthcoming recession. Usually there's a window. You know, in

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Speaker 1: the mid two thousands it was twenty three months before

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Speaker 1: the recession happened. Market peaked before that, but in the

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Speaker 1: midnight the nineties it was about six months. So it's

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Speaker 1: not a precise measurement, but we would look at it

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Speaker 1: as an opportunity to look to de risk assets and

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Speaker 1: think about risk management more so in the end of

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Speaker 1: this year and into next year. So panic now and

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Speaker 1: avoid the rush. No, because our base cases the FED

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Speaker 1: takes went off went off the table, and that the

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Speaker 1: FED is trying to communicate to the market that inflation

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Speaker 1: going about their target is okay. This is a relatively

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Speaker 1: new phenomenon in terms of the symmetry language that's been

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Speaker 1: put into their communication. UM. So, you know, risk management

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Speaker 1: is always a part of our process. It's it's critical.

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Speaker 1: Um But as we look into the end of the year,

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Speaker 1: you know, we we see if the FED does continue

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Speaker 1: to raise rates uh to that fourth time, Yeah, then

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Speaker 1: that would be time to kind of think about it

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Speaker 1: even more so. What does that do to the dollar?

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Speaker 1: I mean, the dollar strength is something that if you

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Speaker 1: had said the had a reserve officials, you know, at

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Speaker 1: the beginning of the year, that we'd be at one

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Speaker 1: seventeen against the euro, it might not have have foreseen that. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: you're absolutely right. And and to us that does mean

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Speaker 1: dollar strengthening. That means US equities look better than international

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Speaker 1: that's divergence of global growth instead of the synchronized global growth.

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Speaker 1: I mean the p m I to date data today

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Speaker 1: just Europe, right, yeah, out of Europe and then the

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Speaker 1: US market pm I just came out down one t

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Speaker 1: of a you know, one tick basically, well, the European

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Speaker 1: data came in softer. You're starting to see desynchronization of

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Speaker 1: of global growth here. So overnight or yesterday afternoon, Mark

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Speaker 1: Quisel of PIMCO said that they're recommending that clients increase

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Speaker 1: their allocation to cash to ten to fift from five

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Speaker 1: to ten percent. They said that they should probably cycle

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Speaker 1: out of credit, in particular longer dated corporate debt. Do

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Speaker 1: you agree. You know, the short en of the curve

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Speaker 1: is offering a pretty nice yield, So we get that

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Speaker 1: because cash is yielding. You know, if you look at

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Speaker 1: kind of the shorten the treasury curve to two and

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Speaker 1: a half percent. Not bad. The problem is you're not

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Speaker 1: going to get diversification from equities if you cut all

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Speaker 1: your duration away. Durations what you want when we get

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Speaker 1: into a recession, and you know that kind of strategy.

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Speaker 1: If you're balancing that too to offset your equities in

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Speaker 1: a downturn. You know, if you'd do collapse in the

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Speaker 1: in the longer end of the curve, that's actually where

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Speaker 1: you want to be. So I get it. You know

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Speaker 1: in the next six months that you're gonna be, you know,

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Speaker 1: mitigating the duration risk. As the short end goes up,

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Speaker 1: you're gonna get some money there from from holding that.

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Speaker 1: But when it goes to a recession time, you want duration.

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Speaker 1: So it'll be interesting to see if he ends up

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Speaker 1: putting that back on six months from tonight, if we're

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Speaker 1: kind of seeing this recession or environment that might be

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Speaker 1: happening in nineteen seconds. Is there something specific you want

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Speaker 1: to be looking for in the release of today's f

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Speaker 1: o MC meeting minutes symmetry, Do they really harp on

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Speaker 1: it or not? All right, thank you so much for

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Speaker 1: being with us. Really interesting ideas. Matt msk in, market

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Speaker 1: strategist for John Hancock Investments based in boss In, but

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Speaker 1: here in our eleven three studios today. Really interesting. I

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Speaker 1: wonder if the focus will be back on the yield

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Speaker 1: curve after the release of those meeting minutes, because, as

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Speaker 1: Matt was saying, they're expecting the yeld curve to invert

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Speaker 1: by year end. Should the federal reserve go four times?

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Speaker 1: Not necessarily a consensus view. I should just point out

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Speaker 1: there are other people who think that there's a significant

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Speaker 1: more amount more room we have to go. But fascinating,

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Speaker 1: Thank you so much. Right now we actually are looking

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Speaker 1: at some strengthening of the lot of Yeah, look at

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Speaker 1: that three percent. Now at the US ten year treasury yield.

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Speaker 1: As mortgage rates rise to the highest in at least

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Speaker 1: seven years of news, when will it start to crimp

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Speaker 1: people's demand for mortgages. Data today suggests that it already is.

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Speaker 1: To talk about this more, I want to bring in

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Speaker 1: Logan Mota Shami. He is senior loan officer for AMC Lending. Logan,

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Speaker 1: thank you so much for being with us. I'm talking

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Speaker 1: about the data that showed that US purchases of new

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Speaker 1: homes fell in April more than people had expected. Do

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Speaker 1: you think this is an indication that higher mortgage rates

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Speaker 1: is crimping into the home sales market at this point. No,

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Speaker 1: for multiple reasons. Number one purchase application data is that

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Speaker 1: cycle highs currently right now, and we've had year over

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Speaker 1: year growth in every single week this year, even with

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Speaker 1: higher home prices, even with higher mortgage rates UH and

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Speaker 1: working from a higher base. This is not like what

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Speaker 1: we saw in when rates were higher in a non

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Speaker 1: seasonal timing. You saw that impacting demand. So as of now,

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Speaker 1: absolutely not mortgage demanded. That cycle high. New home sales

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Speaker 1: for me personally is trending much better than I even

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Speaker 1: thought I was only looking for two to growth this year.

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Speaker 1: We're looking at double digit sales growth this year for

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Speaker 1: new home sales. The revisions were down, but they're not

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Speaker 1: down big. So so far, we haven't seen mortgage rates

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Speaker 1: impact demand at all. One bit. It's impacted the refinance market,

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Speaker 1: but not the purchase market. We'll get two refinances in

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Speaker 1: just a second. I'm curious, are you seeing people put

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Speaker 1: more cash down? No, Typically when home prices rise, UH,

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Speaker 1: the ability to UH put more down and gets limited.

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Speaker 1: But again the markets are different. You know, UH c

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Speaker 1: A home buyers typically tend to be the highest income

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Speaker 1: highest net worth asset people. So you know, if you

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Speaker 1: get some buyers who put down, but then you get

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Speaker 1: the most of the other markets, you probably get a

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Speaker 1: three to five percent down home buyer. So even new

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Speaker 1: tax regulations affecting the deduction of mortgage interest, that is

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Speaker 1: a beg pardon um. Property taxes not affecting home home sales.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely not, and it shouldn't. That's that's a very marginal

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Speaker 1: small number of perspective home buyers that would actually look

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Speaker 1: at that and change their mind. I don't think that

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Speaker 1: will will have any impact because the mortgage interest deduction

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Speaker 1: is still up to seven fifty thousands. You know, the

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Speaker 1: majority of homes are under that level, So I don't

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Speaker 1: see that being any impact whatsoever. You know, Logan, we're

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Speaker 1: talking in generalities and averages. Though the US is a monolith,

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Speaker 1: and obviously it's a fragmented market when it comes to

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Speaker 1: real estate. And I'm wondering, you know, can we break

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Speaker 1: out which part of the US property sales market is

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Speaker 1: actually driving the whole bus here? Because we know that

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Speaker 1: there has been robust growth in the prices and the

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Speaker 1: sales of the higher end houses. But you know, certainly

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Speaker 1: there has been a dearth of affordable housing for people

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Speaker 1: who are lower income, just the first time buyers, etcetera.

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Speaker 1: Where are we on that, on that sort of dynamic

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Speaker 1: that seems to have gotten a little bit out of whack.

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Speaker 1: There is no such thing as affordable housing in America.

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Speaker 1: We do not create the incentives or the backdrop to

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Speaker 1: create affordable housing. And this is a post phenomenon where

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Speaker 1: we've just been building bigger and bigger homes, and whenever

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Speaker 1: the economy gets weak, we lower interest rates, which spur

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Speaker 1: demand and the notion that there's anything affordable out there.

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Speaker 1: For a long time now, it's just not feasible in

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Speaker 1: my eyes, because we based affordability indexes on people who

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Speaker 1: supposedly have down with low interest rates. So I don't

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Speaker 1: even I don't even subscribe to that these I think

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Speaker 1: if you want affordability, you move towards the middle of America,

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Speaker 1: where home prices are much smaller than you know, the

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Speaker 1: coastal areas. Again, that goes into the U. S economy.

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Speaker 1: We've you know, more than the population are in five

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Speaker 1: six different areas in the US, and that tends to

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Speaker 1: be where the high overheating home prices are. But again

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Speaker 1: those people make money as well, and this is why

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Speaker 1: you see home sales still slow and steady. There's no

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Speaker 1: record breaking demand. This is one of the reasons why

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Speaker 1: you don't see housing starts get to fifty year moving average.

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Speaker 1: But we don't build affordable housing. We gave that up

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Speaker 1: decades ago when we've subsidized the housing market with low

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Speaker 1: down payments, low FCO score loans. Interest rates were lower,

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Speaker 1: they were rate of growths and falling for interest rates

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Speaker 1: for decades. So to me, it's impossible to get affordable

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Speaker 1: housing back based on what the builders need to do,

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Speaker 1: because the builders have to make money and they have

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Speaker 1: to build bigger and bigger homes to get that profit margin,

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Speaker 1: especially now with lumber prices of the labor costs stuff

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Speaker 1: as well. Well. Logan, you just described some of the

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Speaker 1: headwinds that many of the home builders are facing. And

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Speaker 1: we got the report from Toll Brothers this week. Obviously

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Speaker 1: they produced luxury housing, but do you see any divergence

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Speaker 1: between the health of your business and the somewhat lackluster

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Speaker 1: fortunes of the home builders. Here's the thing with the builders.

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Speaker 1: The builders were terribly expensive going into the year, and

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Speaker 1: since new home sales if you actually look at adjusting

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Speaker 1: to population used in a six month moving average, we're

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Speaker 1: basically a little tat about what we would see in

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Speaker 1: a recession. So they are dealing with low numbers and

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Speaker 1: they have to make as much money as possible out there.

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Speaker 1: So this is why they've been building bigger and bigger homes.

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Speaker 1: I think it becomes an issue for them, Uh if

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Speaker 1: interest rates go to six or six and a half percent,

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Speaker 1: because these are mortgage buyers. It's not like existing homes

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Speaker 1: that still has a record breaking cash buyer index out there. So,

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Speaker 1: but the demographics for housing has been sought from two

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Speaker 1: thousand and eight to two thousand. We're about to get

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Speaker 1: into a demographic boom for homeownership. So because the numbers

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Speaker 1: are still low for new home sales, they're going to

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Speaker 1: run into a better demograp aftric passion on like two

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Speaker 1: thousand and seven where we had a credit bubble. So

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Speaker 1: I think the builders sales have legs to go higher.

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Speaker 1: It just becomes a profit margin story. Lumber prices, labor cost,

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Speaker 1: land cost. These things matter more now at this stage

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Speaker 1: of the cycle because sales are starting to mature toward

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Speaker 1: more of a fifty year average, and when people talk

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Speaker 1: about a demographic boom. They talk about all the millennials,

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Speaker 1: people who are going to be moving out of apartments

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Speaker 1: and buying homes. Is there any evidence that this shift

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Speaker 1: that we've seen accelerate toward renting rather than owning will

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Speaker 1: reverse this is this is a really interesting topic. Millennials

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Speaker 1: are the biggest home buyers in America today and have

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Speaker 1: been for some time. They're the biggest home buyers in

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Speaker 1: the world. But they buy homes aged thirty two and on.

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Speaker 1: So that big demographic pitch right now that we have

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Speaker 1: in America or ages twenty three to twenty nine. So

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Speaker 1: this is why I've always stated for five years on

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Speaker 1: Bloomber you have to wait till years four. Now, last

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Speaker 1: it was the first year that we had more homeowners

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Speaker 1: and renters, and that makes sense that these people are

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Speaker 1: actually starting to live longer in their rents. Once they

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Speaker 1: get up to the thirty two age they start to

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Speaker 1: buy home. So we're still a few years away from

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Speaker 1: having a better demographic patch. But but once they get

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Speaker 1: to that age group, they if they if they do

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Speaker 1: have that kind of the educated, skilled wage factor in

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Speaker 1: their households, they tend to buy homes. So it's just

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Speaker 1: it's just a makeshift of the demographics in the cycle.

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Speaker 1: It's very unique. We're very old and we're very young.

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Speaker 1: But once they get to that proper age group, they

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Speaker 1: buy homes and that that data has been evident now

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Speaker 1: for for years. Thank you very much for being with us.

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Speaker 1: Logan Mata Shami he is a senior loan officer for

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Speaker 1: a MC lending group. They are based in Irvine, California.

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Speaker 1: You can follow Logan on Twitter at Logan Mata Shami.

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Speaker 1: That's m O H T A s H A M. I.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to Bloomberg. I'm pim file box along with

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Speaker 1: Lisa Abramowitz. Coming up, we're going to be taking a

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Speaker 1: look at what happens when Dodd Frank legislation is changed.

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Speaker 1: The US currently imports most of the uranium that is

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Speaker 1: used for fuel in nuclear power plants in order to

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Speaker 1: generate electricity. About four of the uranium used in the

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Speaker 1: United States comes from Russia. But what would happen if

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Speaker 1: the Russian legislature decides to ban the export of uranium

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Speaker 1: to the United States. Well, here to help us understand

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Speaker 1: the situation is Lee Courier. He is the president chief

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Speaker 1: executive and founder of next Gen Energy. They are based

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Speaker 1: in Vancouver, British Columbia, and they are the owners of

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Speaker 1: a vast track of land in the Athabaska region of

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Speaker 1: Canada where they mind for uranium. Lee, thank you very

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Speaker 1: much for being with us, my pleasure. So did I

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Speaker 1: set out the kind of situation that that is that

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Speaker 1: the country faces accurately? Yes, she did. You quite rightly

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Speaker 1: pointed out that the US relies very heavily currently on

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Speaker 1: uh uranian source from Kazakhstan. We'd respect to our project.

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Speaker 1: We're currently in development, heading towards production. Um not currently

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Speaker 1: in production. So Lee, just to sort of give a

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Speaker 1: sense of why why uranium is a hot topic. It's

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Speaker 1: used in nuclear weapons. Correct, Correct, and as a result,

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Speaker 1: perhaps comes under more scrutiny and has dealt with, greeted

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Speaker 1: with more skepticism than other than other commodities. Correct, well,

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Speaker 1: grect it is it is a sy energy obviously, anything

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Speaker 1: that that's produced in Canada or Australia, and countries that

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Speaker 1: produced uranium who they sell it to must be parties

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Speaker 1: to the non proliferation treaty and they only sell to

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Speaker 1: those countries. So, yes, it is used in nuclear weapons,

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Speaker 1: but is only mined um for electrical generation purposes. So

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Speaker 1: then this sort of goes into what Pim was talking about,

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Speaker 1: where the complicated sort of foreign relationship between the US

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Speaker 1: and Russia is sort of an interesting an interesting side

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Speaker 1: story to the uranium market. When Russia or Kazak sne

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Speaker 1: Is is actually supplying most of the US is uranium,

431
00:24:52,200 --> 00:24:55,680
Speaker 1: Yes they are. They're supplying it for the US in

432
00:24:55,800 --> 00:25:04,080
Speaker 1: power generation in the utilities, and the US produces domestically

433
00:25:04,200 --> 00:25:10,720
Speaker 1: very little uranium and hence they're currently reliant on imports

434
00:25:10,720 --> 00:25:17,840
Speaker 1: of uranium from Canada, Australia, Kazakhstan and predominantly to service

435
00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:22,080
Speaker 1: their their current requirements. So can you tell us what

436
00:25:22,200 --> 00:25:27,240
Speaker 1: would a ban on the export of uranium from Russia,

437
00:25:27,680 --> 00:25:30,560
Speaker 1: which accounts for fourteen percent of US imports, what would

438
00:25:30,600 --> 00:25:33,879
Speaker 1: that do to the price of uranium? Look at that

439
00:25:33,920 --> 00:25:40,639
Speaker 1: would exacerbate an already supply side situation where there's a

440
00:25:40,680 --> 00:25:44,440
Speaker 1: lot of minds around the world closing due to the

441
00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:47,800
Speaker 1: higher cost of production and being at the end of

442
00:25:47,800 --> 00:25:51,560
Speaker 1: their use from mind life. It would exacerbate the that

443
00:25:51,560 --> 00:25:55,560
Speaker 1: that situation and I think undoubtedly have a very positive

444
00:25:55,600 --> 00:26:01,199
Speaker 1: impact on the price of uranium. Are you expecting to

445
00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:04,360
Speaker 1: see higher prices in more demand for for the uranium

446
00:26:04,359 --> 00:26:08,960
Speaker 1: that you your company minds? Well, yes, I do. We

447
00:26:09,119 --> 00:26:14,119
Speaker 1: have an asset that's located in Saskatchewan, Canada. It's ranked

448
00:26:14,119 --> 00:26:16,399
Speaker 1: of the number one minded jurisdiction in the world. And

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00:26:17,040 --> 00:26:22,160
Speaker 1: in this day and age, with geopolitical issues becoming even

450
00:26:22,600 --> 00:26:25,320
Speaker 1: more prevalent than than what they have been in the past,

451
00:26:27,000 --> 00:26:32,640
Speaker 1: uranium source from countries that have a very stable sovereign jurisdiction,

452
00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:38,720
Speaker 1: such as Canada and Australia. I think we'll start to

453
00:26:39,320 --> 00:26:43,680
Speaker 1: see a premium or or greater attention from the US

454
00:26:43,760 --> 00:26:51,399
Speaker 1: utilities with respect to sourcing their uranium supply from Canada predominantly.

455
00:26:51,760 --> 00:26:54,480
Speaker 1: You know, it's it's interesting when I think of aluminium,

456
00:26:54,520 --> 00:26:57,919
Speaker 1: for example, I have, you know, this feeling of industry

457
00:26:58,000 --> 00:27:01,080
Speaker 1: and this feeling of building things else aluminum foil from

458
00:27:01,119 --> 00:27:03,720
Speaker 1: my children's lunch. When I think of uranium, it kind

459
00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:06,600
Speaker 1: of makes me feel uneasy. I think about something that

460
00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:10,600
Speaker 1: sort of has a short half life, that's used in weapons,

461
00:27:10,680 --> 00:27:14,600
Speaker 1: that you know is dangerous um and flammable. Could you

462
00:27:14,600 --> 00:27:16,239
Speaker 1: give me just a sense, can you give me a

463
00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:20,639
Speaker 1: picture of what a uranium mind looks like and you

464
00:27:20,680 --> 00:27:23,240
Speaker 1: know sort of whether whether the impression that that I

465
00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:25,959
Speaker 1: have is sort of false and that it's just like

466
00:27:26,000 --> 00:27:30,040
Speaker 1: any other kind of mind material. It is when from

467
00:27:30,040 --> 00:27:35,040
Speaker 1: a mining perspective, look at the mind that we are

468
00:27:35,080 --> 00:27:39,480
Speaker 1: developing or or in the other ones in Canada or

469
00:27:39,520 --> 00:27:42,840
Speaker 1: anywhere in the world, really are very very benign. They're

470
00:27:42,840 --> 00:27:46,879
Speaker 1: no more complicated than a gold mine or a copper

471
00:27:46,920 --> 00:27:52,240
Speaker 1: mine or aluminum mine. Um. Look, uranium is a fantastic

472
00:27:52,280 --> 00:27:57,560
Speaker 1: source of energy. It's why nuclear energy is such. Is

473
00:27:57,600 --> 00:28:03,080
Speaker 1: the lowest cost of given output of electricity is the

474
00:28:03,119 --> 00:28:07,280
Speaker 1: lowest on the planet, and it emits no carbon emissions.

475
00:28:08,320 --> 00:28:11,920
Speaker 1: The fact that it's such a fantastic source of energy

476
00:28:12,040 --> 00:28:15,520
Speaker 1: is why it has been used in the past in

477
00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:20,120
Speaker 1: nuclear weapons. But um, from the mining perspective, it's it's

478
00:28:20,200 --> 00:28:23,160
Speaker 1: very benign. It's not until it gets into the nuclear

479
00:28:23,200 --> 00:28:28,440
Speaker 1: fusion process in the in the utility that it generates,

480
00:28:28,480 --> 00:28:34,160
Speaker 1: it's it's terrific power. But look, there's no deny it.

481
00:28:34,160 --> 00:28:40,040
Speaker 1: It has had that history in the past. But as

482
00:28:40,080 --> 00:28:43,520
Speaker 1: I said earlier, mind uranium is very benign. It's no

483
00:28:43,640 --> 00:28:49,160
Speaker 1: more complicated than many gold mines around the world. And

484
00:28:50,160 --> 00:28:53,520
Speaker 1: as a source of electricity, it's the lowest cost of power,

485
00:28:54,000 --> 00:28:57,280
Speaker 1: and that's over time. It's been province in the sixties,

486
00:28:57,320 --> 00:29:01,560
Speaker 1: that is the case, and now with carbon emissions being

487
00:29:01,600 --> 00:29:04,760
Speaker 1: such a well, I think it's actually one of the

488
00:29:04,800 --> 00:29:10,760
Speaker 1: planet's largest issues to resolve and properly address. Attention to

489
00:29:11,960 --> 00:29:16,200
Speaker 1: that is the only form of clean power that provides

490
00:29:16,240 --> 00:29:22,480
Speaker 1: base load power. So wind, solar, older renewables fantastic initiatives

491
00:29:23,280 --> 00:29:26,800
Speaker 1: and must be pursued. But with respect to our requirements

492
00:29:27,200 --> 00:29:30,520
Speaker 1: and the world's population through at least till at least,

493
00:29:31,840 --> 00:29:35,280
Speaker 1: nuclear power is the only answer, and I stress the

494
00:29:35,360 --> 00:29:37,880
Speaker 1: only answer, and I think a lot of countries are

495
00:29:37,920 --> 00:29:43,160
Speaker 1: starting to realize that China will become the world's largest

496
00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:48,400
Speaker 1: consumer of electricity of nuclear power sometimes in the decade

497
00:29:48,600 --> 00:29:53,520
Speaker 1: and overtaking the US as the largest consumer. And he

498
00:29:53,640 --> 00:29:56,960
Speaker 1: also seeing a lot of other countries around the world

499
00:29:59,600 --> 00:30:04,320
Speaker 1: extent and the licenses of nuclear power stations because it's

500
00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:08,120
Speaker 1: just unbeatable in terms of a good, clean, low cost

501
00:30:08,120 --> 00:30:10,480
Speaker 1: source of energy. Lee Curier, thank you so much for

502
00:30:10,520 --> 00:30:13,400
Speaker 1: being with us. He's president, chief executive and founder of

503
00:30:13,600 --> 00:30:19,280
Speaker 1: next Gen Energy based in Vancouver, British Columbia. Coming up politics, policy,

504
00:30:19,360 --> 00:30:23,840
Speaker 1: power and law, Bloomberg's own June Grosso it was joining

505
00:30:23,880 --> 00:30:26,480
Speaker 1: us now. The show is being broadcast from the Bloomberg

506
00:30:26,560 --> 00:30:28,960
Speaker 1: Law Leadership Forum. Real quick, June, what are you focusing

507
00:30:29,000 --> 00:30:31,719
Speaker 1: on today? Well, Rod Rosenstein is making a speech right now.

508
00:30:31,720 --> 00:30:34,040
Speaker 1: We're gonna be talking to the top lawyers at companies

509
00:30:34,080 --> 00:30:38,280
Speaker 1: like ge about regulatory compliance. Stick with it. Sounds fascinating.

510
00:30:38,400 --> 00:30:41,200
Speaker 1: I will be listening, so should you. Bloomberg Politics, Policy,

511
00:30:41,240 --> 00:30:44,280
Speaker 1: Power and Law. That is next, and Lisa Abramo it's

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00:30:44,320 --> 00:30:46,080
Speaker 1: along with my co host Pim Fox, and this is

513
00:30:46,080 --> 00:30:53,360
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg P and

514
00:30:53,480 --> 00:30:56,480
Speaker 1: L podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews at

515
00:30:56,560 --> 00:31:01,000
Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm

516
00:31:01,000 --> 00:31:04,440
Speaker 1: Pim Fox, I'm on Twitter at Pim Fox. I'm on

517
00:31:04,480 --> 00:31:07,760
Speaker 1: Twitter at Lisa Abramo wits one Before the podcast, you

518
00:31:07,800 --> 00:31:10,320
Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide on Bloomberg Radio