1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:07,040 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:08,080 --> 00:00:12,440 Speaker 2: It's going to be the largest regulatory reduction in the 3 00:00:12,480 --> 00:00:13,440 Speaker 2: history of our country. 4 00:00:13,440 --> 00:00:15,000 Speaker 3: It's going to happen very fairs. 5 00:00:25,040 --> 00:00:28,120 Speaker 2: I'm Stephanie Flanders, head of Government and Economics at Bloomberg, 6 00:00:28,320 --> 00:00:30,960 Speaker 2: and this is trump Anomics, the podcast that looks at 7 00:00:30,960 --> 00:00:33,920 Speaker 2: the economic world of Donald Trump, how he's already shaped 8 00:00:33,920 --> 00:00:36,720 Speaker 2: the global economy and what on earth is going to 9 00:00:36,760 --> 00:00:40,159 Speaker 2: happen next. And this week we're talking about Donald Trump's 10 00:00:40,200 --> 00:00:43,560 Speaker 2: way with money, all kinds of it. The old guard 11 00:00:43,640 --> 00:00:46,800 Speaker 2: on Wall Street and the crypto punks are all delighted 12 00:00:46,840 --> 00:00:49,520 Speaker 2: with the administration's plans for the financial sector so far, 13 00:00:50,000 --> 00:00:53,640 Speaker 2: especially the big push on deregulation. That's no mean feat. 14 00:00:53,880 --> 00:00:56,000 Speaker 2: I mean, there's little else these folks could agree on. 15 00:00:56,520 --> 00:00:59,760 Speaker 2: But when the financial sector gets everything it's asked for, 16 00:01:00,240 --> 00:01:02,160 Speaker 2: that's not always good news for the rest of us. 17 00:01:02,640 --> 00:01:04,759 Speaker 2: In loosening the guardrails on the banks, or at least 18 00:01:04,760 --> 00:01:07,160 Speaker 2: saying that's what it wants to do, and giving the 19 00:01:07,200 --> 00:01:11,360 Speaker 2: presidential seal of approval to all kinds of crypto, is 20 00:01:11,360 --> 00:01:15,080 Speaker 2: the administration laying the groundwork for the next big financial crisis, 21 00:01:15,600 --> 00:01:19,760 Speaker 2: or just correcting the mountain of bureaucracy, regulation, and risk 22 00:01:19,840 --> 00:01:23,600 Speaker 2: aversion that descended on America's financial system in the years 23 00:01:23,640 --> 00:01:26,440 Speaker 2: after the financial crisis of two thousand and eight. That's 24 00:01:26,480 --> 00:01:28,640 Speaker 2: what I'm wondering about this week, and I have two 25 00:01:28,880 --> 00:01:32,400 Speaker 2: expert colleagues to help me navigate it all. Joining from 26 00:01:32,440 --> 00:01:35,800 Speaker 2: New York Christine Harper, a member of the Bloomberg editorial 27 00:01:35,800 --> 00:01:38,600 Speaker 2: board and also the co author with the man himself, 28 00:01:38,800 --> 00:01:43,440 Speaker 2: of Paul Volker's biography, And in Washington, D C. Katanga Johnson, 29 00:01:43,480 --> 00:01:47,320 Speaker 2: who's our lead reporter covering banking regulation in that bureau. 30 00:01:47,880 --> 00:01:49,560 Speaker 2: Thank you so much for coming, both of you. 31 00:01:49,960 --> 00:01:51,520 Speaker 1: Thank you thanks for having us in. 32 00:01:54,680 --> 00:01:57,040 Speaker 2: So Kittanga, we tend to come to reporters first because 33 00:01:57,040 --> 00:01:58,640 Speaker 2: they're the ones who are trying to kind of keep 34 00:01:58,680 --> 00:02:01,840 Speaker 2: track of everything that's going on. When the administration came in, 35 00:02:02,040 --> 00:02:05,320 Speaker 2: what would you say were their big priorities in thinking 36 00:02:05,360 --> 00:02:08,560 Speaker 2: about the state of financial regulation in the US and 37 00:02:08,600 --> 00:02:10,840 Speaker 2: the administrative system that they were inheriting. 38 00:02:11,560 --> 00:02:14,440 Speaker 1: On day one, Trump's regulators really wanted to focus on 39 00:02:14,600 --> 00:02:19,520 Speaker 1: streamlining all regulatory and supervisory efforts to make sure that 40 00:02:19,919 --> 00:02:22,960 Speaker 1: small banks, community banks could compete and that bigger banks 41 00:02:23,200 --> 00:02:26,919 Speaker 1: weren't necessarily complying with rules that were, as they say, 42 00:02:26,960 --> 00:02:31,520 Speaker 1: goal plated or much more onerous than the framers had anticipated. 43 00:02:32,440 --> 00:02:35,240 Speaker 1: Part of that focus was really to address things that 44 00:02:35,280 --> 00:02:39,280 Speaker 1: didn't really address a bank's balance sheet, things like climate 45 00:02:39,400 --> 00:02:43,240 Speaker 1: rules restricting access and partnerships with FinTechs and non banks, 46 00:02:43,880 --> 00:02:47,919 Speaker 1: heavier hand on anything tied to crypto. Trump's regulators came 47 00:02:47,960 --> 00:02:50,800 Speaker 1: in thinking, how can we level the playing field for 48 00:02:50,840 --> 00:02:53,760 Speaker 1: banks to compete, whether those were smaller banks and bigger banks, 49 00:02:53,880 --> 00:02:57,520 Speaker 1: And let's pause anything that the bui An administration proposed 50 00:02:57,840 --> 00:03:00,600 Speaker 1: and then revisit some of the bigger ticket items addressed 51 00:03:00,639 --> 00:03:04,640 Speaker 1: issues that actually affected their ability to end, like capital 52 00:03:04,800 --> 00:03:06,160 Speaker 1: liquidity and all the rest. 53 00:03:06,639 --> 00:03:07,880 Speaker 3: Okay, so that's really useful. 54 00:03:07,919 --> 00:03:11,040 Speaker 2: We've tended to think that the administration has acted extremely 55 00:03:11,120 --> 00:03:13,720 Speaker 2: quickly on an enormous range of fronts in its first 56 00:03:13,800 --> 00:03:16,280 Speaker 2: few months. If you think about those goals that you 57 00:03:16,400 --> 00:03:18,320 Speaker 2: just set out, how are they doing if they made 58 00:03:18,360 --> 00:03:20,080 Speaker 2: some big moves in those directions. 59 00:03:20,720 --> 00:03:24,080 Speaker 1: On the one hand, initially privately you'd hear folks on 60 00:03:24,120 --> 00:03:27,160 Speaker 1: Wall Street and even some in Washington would agree there 61 00:03:27,160 --> 00:03:30,080 Speaker 1: are things of the administrations doing that's not quite the 62 00:03:30,120 --> 00:03:33,400 Speaker 1: main priority that included a flurry of executive orders that 63 00:03:33,480 --> 00:03:36,360 Speaker 1: seemed to get in the way of regulators getting to work. 64 00:03:36,600 --> 00:03:39,240 Speaker 1: But to some degree, the personnel moves that we've seen 65 00:03:39,440 --> 00:03:41,520 Speaker 1: at the agencies have really made a big difference in 66 00:03:41,640 --> 00:03:45,360 Speaker 1: terms of their ability to get the deregulation agenda started, 67 00:03:45,440 --> 00:03:49,720 Speaker 1: and chiefly at the FAD the departure of Michael Barr, who, 68 00:03:50,520 --> 00:03:53,080 Speaker 1: as the Vice Chair of Supervision under Biden, was supposed 69 00:03:53,080 --> 00:03:56,640 Speaker 1: to be in office until next year. His departure in 70 00:03:56,680 --> 00:03:59,040 Speaker 1: a bid to sort of avoid a fight with Trump, 71 00:03:59,320 --> 00:04:01,760 Speaker 1: open the way for Michelle Bowman, who's now the fed's 72 00:04:01,800 --> 00:04:04,880 Speaker 1: top bank cop, to come in and really take a 73 00:04:04,880 --> 00:04:07,120 Speaker 1: look at Okay, what are the main issues that banks 74 00:04:07,120 --> 00:04:09,360 Speaker 1: have said they want to see paused and what are 75 00:04:09,440 --> 00:04:12,080 Speaker 1: things that we could begin to do around capital and 76 00:04:12,560 --> 00:04:15,240 Speaker 1: the major agenda items so far out of the FED 77 00:04:15,360 --> 00:04:18,320 Speaker 1: and indeed all of the regulators has been a major 78 00:04:18,360 --> 00:04:21,520 Speaker 1: capital rule, this enhanced supplemental Leverage ratio, which is the 79 00:04:21,560 --> 00:04:24,799 Speaker 1: beginning of easing capital rules for banks. There are others 80 00:04:24,960 --> 00:04:28,920 Speaker 1: that we expect, but already having a proposal with a 81 00:04:28,960 --> 00:04:31,760 Speaker 1: thirty day comment period on that item, in addition to 82 00:04:31,800 --> 00:04:34,280 Speaker 1: pausing other rules that sort of got in the way, 83 00:04:34,760 --> 00:04:37,800 Speaker 1: has been in some ways ahead of track for the administration, 84 00:04:38,040 --> 00:04:40,080 Speaker 1: again because of Mar's departure. 85 00:04:40,720 --> 00:04:42,600 Speaker 2: It's good you've taken us to the effect because I 86 00:04:42,600 --> 00:04:44,360 Speaker 2: want to get onto that a bit later. I think 87 00:04:44,400 --> 00:04:46,359 Speaker 2: we tend to focus a lot on what's going to 88 00:04:46,360 --> 00:04:49,200 Speaker 2: happen to the chairmanship of the FED, and thinking about 89 00:04:49,520 --> 00:04:51,919 Speaker 2: Jay Pale and whether he's going to get FED and 90 00:04:51,960 --> 00:04:54,920 Speaker 2: how much power that might get the president. But as 91 00:04:54,960 --> 00:04:58,720 Speaker 2: you've reminded us, there's lots of people behind slightly less 92 00:04:58,760 --> 00:05:02,000 Speaker 2: high profile things that the FED is deeply involved in 93 00:05:02,040 --> 00:05:04,240 Speaker 2: which the administration can have a lot of influence over 94 00:05:04,680 --> 00:05:08,600 Speaker 2: partly because of that personnel change you just mentioned Michelle Bowman. 95 00:05:08,680 --> 00:05:11,040 Speaker 2: So we'll get onto that in a bit. But Christine, 96 00:05:11,320 --> 00:05:14,240 Speaker 2: after many years of very distinguished reporting in different areas, 97 00:05:14,720 --> 00:05:18,240 Speaker 2: often in finance in Bloomberg, you're now on the editorial board, 98 00:05:18,320 --> 00:05:20,680 Speaker 2: and so you're associated with the editorials. And I was 99 00:05:20,760 --> 00:05:24,600 Speaker 2: quite struck by one on financial deregulation that was published 100 00:05:24,760 --> 00:05:29,359 Speaker 2: soon after President Trump was re elected, saying this campaign's 101 00:05:29,400 --> 00:05:33,120 Speaker 2: disdained for the administrative state and the public's growing exasperation 102 00:05:33,240 --> 00:05:36,120 Speaker 2: with red tape suggests the country is in for a 103 00:05:36,160 --> 00:05:40,880 Speaker 2: period of bureaucratic humility. Here's hoping the financial system doesn't 104 00:05:40,920 --> 00:05:43,200 Speaker 2: become vulnerable as a result. Well, I think you've got 105 00:05:43,279 --> 00:05:45,680 Speaker 2: the bureaucratic humility right. 106 00:05:46,200 --> 00:05:48,400 Speaker 3: But do you think. 107 00:05:48,240 --> 00:05:50,560 Speaker 2: Overall that we're heading in a direction where the financial 108 00:05:50,560 --> 00:05:52,320 Speaker 2: system will be less safe? 109 00:05:52,680 --> 00:05:55,359 Speaker 4: Well it's hard to say. I mean, but as Katanga 110 00:05:55,400 --> 00:05:58,400 Speaker 4: was pointing out, personnel is really policy here. I mean, 111 00:05:58,480 --> 00:06:03,000 Speaker 4: besides Michelle Bauman, who's been a very staunch opponent of 112 00:06:03,040 --> 00:06:07,640 Speaker 4: many of the regulatory efforts under Biden, the Trump administration 113 00:06:07,760 --> 00:06:11,400 Speaker 4: has named to all of the key regulatory posts people 114 00:06:11,480 --> 00:06:14,840 Speaker 4: who are, you know, advocates for the industry in one 115 00:06:14,839 --> 00:06:17,840 Speaker 4: way or another. I think even Michelle Bowman has named 116 00:06:18,320 --> 00:06:20,360 Speaker 4: one of the top lobbyists for the banks as a 117 00:06:20,440 --> 00:06:23,880 Speaker 4: key deputy. So now there are people in position to 118 00:06:24,480 --> 00:06:29,320 Speaker 4: rewrite or pause in many cases, rules or enforcement actions 119 00:06:29,839 --> 00:06:33,200 Speaker 4: that the industry didn't like. That's not always a bad thing. 120 00:06:33,279 --> 00:06:35,559 Speaker 4: Some of the things that were happening under the Biden 121 00:06:35,600 --> 00:06:40,200 Speaker 4: administration were just, you know, probably over aggressive. Gary Gensler 122 00:06:41,080 --> 00:06:44,240 Speaker 4: had an incredible record at the SEC of writing and 123 00:06:44,320 --> 00:06:49,039 Speaker 4: proposing rules, far exceeding his predecessors, and many of the 124 00:06:49,080 --> 00:06:51,440 Speaker 4: rules he was proposing were not required by statute, so 125 00:06:51,480 --> 00:06:54,840 Speaker 4: he was really going above and beyond, and that is 126 00:06:54,880 --> 00:06:58,000 Speaker 4: all being dialed back pretty quickly. The people who are 127 00:06:58,000 --> 00:07:00,160 Speaker 4: in place are just right now just trying to and 128 00:07:00,400 --> 00:07:03,960 Speaker 4: anything that was happening under their predecessors. And as I said, 129 00:07:04,040 --> 00:07:06,640 Speaker 4: some of that makes sense. For instance, these really onerous 130 00:07:06,760 --> 00:07:11,040 Speaker 4: requirements on mergers between banks and probably don't make that 131 00:07:11,160 --> 00:07:14,440 Speaker 4: much sense. Bank mergers are in and of themselves not 132 00:07:14,520 --> 00:07:17,520 Speaker 4: a bad thing. They can actually make the system safer sometimes. 133 00:07:18,120 --> 00:07:21,040 Speaker 4: That said, I mean, they've basically gutted the Consumer Financial 134 00:07:21,080 --> 00:07:24,400 Speaker 4: Protection Bureau, which had done some pretty useful work in 135 00:07:24,440 --> 00:07:29,800 Speaker 4: protecting consumers. And remains to be seen how lowering capital 136 00:07:29,840 --> 00:07:33,680 Speaker 4: requirements as are proposing will affect the resilience of banks 137 00:07:33,680 --> 00:07:36,360 Speaker 4: if things go wrong. And then they're dialing back some 138 00:07:36,440 --> 00:07:39,120 Speaker 4: of the oversight that had been proposed over the sort 139 00:07:39,120 --> 00:07:42,560 Speaker 4: of so called shadow banking system, which poses its own 140 00:07:42,600 --> 00:07:45,640 Speaker 4: set of potential dangers. I thought it was interesting just 141 00:07:45,680 --> 00:07:48,400 Speaker 4: to make one point that the SEC one of the 142 00:07:48,400 --> 00:07:51,600 Speaker 4: commissioners who's still on the Commission, who's a Republican, is 143 00:07:51,840 --> 00:07:56,280 Speaker 4: Hester Pierce. She's so pro the cryptocurrency industry that she's 144 00:07:56,360 --> 00:07:59,320 Speaker 4: known as crypto mom, but she actually put out a 145 00:07:59,360 --> 00:08:03,680 Speaker 4: fascinating last week pushing back at the effort to tokenize 146 00:08:03,760 --> 00:08:07,239 Speaker 4: all the financial instruments. If you tokenize things, it doesn't 147 00:08:07,280 --> 00:08:11,520 Speaker 4: magically change the underlying thing. You can't just avoid securities 148 00:08:11,840 --> 00:08:15,480 Speaker 4: laws by tokenizing something. So even people are who are 149 00:08:15,520 --> 00:08:18,320 Speaker 4: industry advocates who are starting to see they need to 150 00:08:18,680 --> 00:08:21,560 Speaker 4: push back a little bit against some of the excessive 151 00:08:22,040 --> 00:08:23,720 Speaker 4: optimism of the people there. 152 00:08:24,080 --> 00:08:26,320 Speaker 2: So just to touch into the weeds a little bit. 153 00:08:26,600 --> 00:08:30,160 Speaker 2: One of the rules that has certainly been a little 154 00:08:30,200 --> 00:08:33,000 Speaker 2: bit unpopular among some of the big banks is this 155 00:08:33,400 --> 00:08:38,040 Speaker 2: supplemental ratio, which is supposed to be about maintaining the 156 00:08:38,120 --> 00:08:40,640 Speaker 2: strength of the balance sheet of the bank and making 157 00:08:40,679 --> 00:08:43,600 Speaker 2: sure that they can't be too highly leveraged. But there's 158 00:08:43,640 --> 00:08:47,240 Speaker 2: a change in effective loosening in that which the administration 159 00:08:47,360 --> 00:08:50,440 Speaker 2: is very keen to achieve. You know, roughly, what is 160 00:08:50,480 --> 00:08:52,199 Speaker 2: that aimed at doing? Katanga? 161 00:08:52,840 --> 00:08:57,160 Speaker 1: Roughly, the regulators hope that by making changes to the ratio, 162 00:08:57,800 --> 00:09:02,680 Speaker 1: to the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio, that trading in the 163 00:09:02,720 --> 00:09:05,439 Speaker 1: twenty nine trillion dollar treasuries market, particularly in a. 164 00:09:05,360 --> 00:09:07,679 Speaker 3: Moment you had federal government bonds, Yeah. 165 00:09:07,920 --> 00:09:11,520 Speaker 1: Would be easier for the likes of JP, Morgan Goldmansas, 166 00:09:11,520 --> 00:09:15,800 Speaker 1: and Morgan Stanley, And by lowering that requirement for those banks, 167 00:09:16,080 --> 00:09:19,840 Speaker 1: it would allow them and their subsidiaries to sort of 168 00:09:19,840 --> 00:09:21,439 Speaker 1: have the same requirement. 169 00:09:21,840 --> 00:09:25,200 Speaker 2: So, Christine, I'm remembering in the first Trump administration, some 170 00:09:25,240 --> 00:09:27,360 Speaker 2: of the constraints that were put on banks after the 171 00:09:27,400 --> 00:09:31,120 Speaker 2: global financial crisis were paired back, and then it was 172 00:09:31,400 --> 00:09:34,080 Speaker 2: suggested later that those changes had helped put us on 173 00:09:34,120 --> 00:09:36,600 Speaker 2: a path to the bank failures we had a couple 174 00:09:36,640 --> 00:09:39,000 Speaker 2: of years ago. I guess you know, Silicon Valley Banks 175 00:09:39,040 --> 00:09:42,520 Speaker 2: signature First Republic. Do you have the same kind of 176 00:09:42,520 --> 00:09:46,839 Speaker 2: worries about this effort to change the supplemental leverage ratio 177 00:09:47,000 --> 00:09:48,839 Speaker 2: or do you think it actually makes a bit of sense. 178 00:09:49,880 --> 00:09:51,960 Speaker 4: Well, I mean, it's certainly true that the size of 179 00:09:52,000 --> 00:09:55,240 Speaker 4: the treasury market has grown dramatically since those rules were 180 00:09:55,240 --> 00:09:58,040 Speaker 4: first proposed back in I think twenty fourteen, and so 181 00:09:58,840 --> 00:10:01,480 Speaker 4: when they were proposed, there was supposed to be this 182 00:10:01,640 --> 00:10:05,680 Speaker 4: limit on how many assets banks could have compared to 183 00:10:05,800 --> 00:10:08,560 Speaker 4: their level of capital, even if those assets were super 184 00:10:08,559 --> 00:10:12,600 Speaker 4: safe things like treasuries or central bank reserves. So they 185 00:10:12,600 --> 00:10:15,040 Speaker 4: wanted to make sure that there was a minimum sort 186 00:10:15,040 --> 00:10:18,040 Speaker 4: of backstop, no matter what the riskiness of their assets was. 187 00:10:18,240 --> 00:10:20,760 Speaker 4: But as this treasury market has grown, now the banks 188 00:10:20,760 --> 00:10:24,520 Speaker 4: are constrained when things really developed from being able to 189 00:10:24,960 --> 00:10:29,240 Speaker 4: just buy unlimited treasuries, and as a result you've seen 190 00:10:29,240 --> 00:10:32,880 Speaker 4: a lot of hedge funds and proprietary trading firms step 191 00:10:32,920 --> 00:10:35,880 Speaker 4: in and do a lot more activity in the treasury market. 192 00:10:36,440 --> 00:10:38,959 Speaker 4: The problem is that if you lower that backstop, that 193 00:10:39,040 --> 00:10:43,480 Speaker 4: sort of minimum capital requirement for banks, you're just reducing 194 00:10:43,840 --> 00:10:48,200 Speaker 4: the safety that bank depositors and other investors have that 195 00:10:48,440 --> 00:10:50,840 Speaker 4: if something goes wrong in the assets on the bank's 196 00:10:50,880 --> 00:10:53,520 Speaker 4: balance sheet, that they'll have enough capital to deal with it. 197 00:10:54,160 --> 00:10:57,040 Speaker 4: So things just go wrong, they always do, and so 198 00:10:57,920 --> 00:11:00,400 Speaker 4: as a result, it would make more sense in my 199 00:11:00,520 --> 00:11:03,360 Speaker 4: view to have capital requirements where they are. It doesn't 200 00:11:03,400 --> 00:11:05,160 Speaker 4: seem necessarily to lower them. There are other ways you 201 00:11:05,160 --> 00:11:06,880 Speaker 4: could solve the problems in the treasury market. 202 00:11:06,920 --> 00:11:09,000 Speaker 2: It is funny when you look at a bank balance sheet, 203 00:11:09,040 --> 00:11:10,640 Speaker 2: there is this kind of basic fact that if it 204 00:11:10,679 --> 00:11:12,720 Speaker 2: was any other business, you would say. 205 00:11:12,600 --> 00:11:14,400 Speaker 3: It was hugely bankrupt. You know. 206 00:11:14,480 --> 00:11:16,880 Speaker 2: It's like they're the only institutions that are able to 207 00:11:16,920 --> 00:11:19,960 Speaker 2: have a relatively small amount of equity, and then they're 208 00:11:20,040 --> 00:11:22,160 Speaker 2: lending a huge amount on the back of that, which 209 00:11:22,200 --> 00:11:23,600 Speaker 2: you'd never be able to do if you were just 210 00:11:23,640 --> 00:11:25,960 Speaker 2: a sort of normal, normal company. 211 00:11:25,640 --> 00:11:27,319 Speaker 4: Right, And that's by design. And that's one of the 212 00:11:27,440 --> 00:11:29,600 Speaker 4: arguments that a lot of the you know, private credit 213 00:11:29,679 --> 00:11:32,240 Speaker 4: and non bank companies are saying is that you know, 214 00:11:32,240 --> 00:11:34,680 Speaker 4: we have a different model where we have more permanent capital, 215 00:11:35,240 --> 00:11:38,280 Speaker 4: and so there's no risk that depositors suddenly flee and 216 00:11:38,440 --> 00:11:41,679 Speaker 4: you have a problem with, you know, trying to repay 217 00:11:41,720 --> 00:11:44,760 Speaker 4: your lenders. But banks, you know, are always going to 218 00:11:44,760 --> 00:11:47,679 Speaker 4: be leveraged. But making sure that they're not over leverage 219 00:11:47,800 --> 00:11:50,320 Speaker 4: is sort of the core part of the post financial 220 00:11:50,320 --> 00:11:53,200 Speaker 4: crisis regulation, and so any effort to sort of water 221 00:11:53,320 --> 00:11:55,520 Speaker 4: that down seems concerning. 222 00:11:55,880 --> 00:11:56,439 Speaker 3: I could take it. 223 00:11:56,480 --> 00:11:58,920 Speaker 2: I think, I mean Scott Besson, the Treasury Sectuary, it 224 00:11:58,960 --> 00:12:02,839 Speaker 2: does seem to be one of the key movers in 225 00:12:03,000 --> 00:12:07,240 Speaker 2: this financial deregulation or certainly to this push to change 226 00:12:07,280 --> 00:12:10,760 Speaker 2: banking regulation. And of course the Treasure Secutor has always 227 00:12:10,800 --> 00:12:12,920 Speaker 2: had quite a lot of power in these areas, but 228 00:12:12,960 --> 00:12:16,360 Speaker 2: I guess the way that the administration has concentrated power 229 00:12:16,400 --> 00:12:19,319 Speaker 2: and gained a lot more influence over the independent agencies. 230 00:12:19,320 --> 00:12:22,280 Speaker 2: You know, Supreme Court has kind of given them the 231 00:12:22,480 --> 00:12:25,400 Speaker 2: power to hire and fire many of these officials or 232 00:12:25,440 --> 00:12:27,880 Speaker 2: independent agencies who we previously would have thought of as 233 00:12:27,920 --> 00:12:31,160 Speaker 2: a bit more arm's length from the administration. I mean, 234 00:12:31,240 --> 00:12:34,319 Speaker 2: I write in thinking that he has become a particularly 235 00:12:34,320 --> 00:12:38,120 Speaker 2: important figure in this and along with Michelle Bowman, is 236 00:12:38,160 --> 00:12:41,000 Speaker 2: you know, really giving the administration a much sort of 237 00:12:41,240 --> 00:12:45,319 Speaker 2: clearer unified policy making than we might have had in 238 00:12:45,440 --> 00:12:46,360 Speaker 2: previous series. 239 00:12:46,480 --> 00:12:50,320 Speaker 1: You're right, Stephanie, that'son has really taken the helm of 240 00:12:50,360 --> 00:12:54,079 Speaker 1: the financial regulators and said, let's coordinate our efforts by 241 00:12:54,160 --> 00:12:57,839 Speaker 1: meeting with the heads of the three main banked regulators, 242 00:12:58,040 --> 00:13:00,880 Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, and the 243 00:13:00,920 --> 00:13:04,319 Speaker 1: Treasury Zone Office of the Control of the Currency. Together, 244 00:13:04,360 --> 00:13:07,880 Speaker 1: those three agencies are now trying to coordinate their efforts 245 00:13:08,040 --> 00:13:13,960 Speaker 1: in streamlining rules, discussing the sort of priorities around changes 246 00:13:14,000 --> 00:13:14,520 Speaker 1: to capital. 247 00:13:14,800 --> 00:13:17,679 Speaker 2: Call me suspicious, but I can't help noticing that Scott 248 00:13:17,720 --> 00:13:20,199 Speaker 2: Bessont the Treasury sector, who's now going to be also 249 00:13:20,280 --> 00:13:25,120 Speaker 2: presiding over a massive increase in the number of US treasuries. 250 00:13:25,160 --> 00:13:26,600 Speaker 2: I mean, the debt is going to go up by 251 00:13:26,640 --> 00:13:30,040 Speaker 2: several trillion dollars at least according to almost everyone's forecast. 252 00:13:30,559 --> 00:13:32,679 Speaker 2: Is it a coincidence that he also wants to make 253 00:13:32,720 --> 00:13:35,880 Speaker 2: it much easier for banks to hold treasuries not worried 254 00:13:35,920 --> 00:13:37,880 Speaker 2: too much about how many they own. Isn't that going 255 00:13:37,880 --> 00:13:40,200 Speaker 2: to be unbalance sort of positive for the market at 256 00:13:40,200 --> 00:13:42,400 Speaker 2: a time when the cost of borrowing for governments from 257 00:13:42,400 --> 00:13:42,800 Speaker 2: going up. 258 00:13:43,040 --> 00:13:45,160 Speaker 1: Many people would agree that yes. On its face, it's 259 00:13:45,200 --> 00:13:49,240 Speaker 1: interesting that Beston is playing that role and seemingly following 260 00:13:49,280 --> 00:13:53,240 Speaker 1: some strategy that many others either haven't haven't seen or 261 00:13:53,360 --> 00:13:56,520 Speaker 1: haven't agreed on. But what the impact will be will 262 00:13:56,559 --> 00:14:00,000 Speaker 1: be rather interesting, and I imagine a lot of ways 263 00:14:00,000 --> 00:14:03,680 Speaker 1: people close to him privately must be discussing, Hey, have 264 00:14:03,760 --> 00:14:06,360 Speaker 1: you considered what the outcome will be by addressing things 265 00:14:06,360 --> 00:14:07,640 Speaker 1: in this way on both sides? 266 00:14:08,160 --> 00:14:10,640 Speaker 2: Well, that's a very careful answer, which I would expect. 267 00:14:10,679 --> 00:14:12,760 Speaker 2: I would expect no less. But lots of people will 268 00:14:12,760 --> 00:14:15,040 Speaker 2: be amazed that we haven't talked about crypto yet, Christine. 269 00:14:15,240 --> 00:14:18,280 Speaker 2: For people on the outside, that seems like the biggest 270 00:14:18,360 --> 00:14:21,960 Speaker 2: sort of mood shift and change of direction for this 271 00:14:22,000 --> 00:14:25,360 Speaker 2: administration when it comes to finance. I mean, that feels 272 00:14:25,400 --> 00:14:29,560 Speaker 2: like the whole world of cryptocurrencies is being kind of 273 00:14:29,680 --> 00:14:33,200 Speaker 2: welcomed into the American financial system in a way that 274 00:14:33,400 --> 00:14:36,200 Speaker 2: was just not the case under the previous administration. 275 00:14:36,840 --> 00:14:40,480 Speaker 4: But that's absolutely true. And just to return to your 276 00:14:40,520 --> 00:14:44,080 Speaker 4: previous point about the treasury market, one of the first 277 00:14:44,120 --> 00:14:47,040 Speaker 4: things that the Banking Committee got to was the Genius Act, 278 00:14:47,120 --> 00:14:49,920 Speaker 4: which is a way of creating a regulatory framework for 279 00:14:50,000 --> 00:14:52,480 Speaker 4: what are known as stable coins. This is a part 280 00:14:52,480 --> 00:14:54,960 Speaker 4: of the crypto market that basically just as you know, 281 00:14:55,000 --> 00:14:58,560 Speaker 4: a digital version of the dollar, let's say, and there's 282 00:14:58,760 --> 00:15:01,560 Speaker 4: part of the regulatory regime will require them to own 283 00:15:01,800 --> 00:15:06,280 Speaker 4: safe assets like in particularly treasuries, and there's an argument 284 00:15:06,360 --> 00:15:09,360 Speaker 4: that this will increase demand for treasuries and help the 285 00:15:09,440 --> 00:15:12,640 Speaker 4: dollar and whatnot. And so you're building a sort of 286 00:15:12,680 --> 00:15:18,040 Speaker 4: a whole financial structure that's even more leveraged on treasury market. 287 00:15:18,240 --> 00:15:21,360 Speaker 4: So stable coins and banks, as you've talked about, At 288 00:15:21,360 --> 00:15:23,800 Speaker 4: a time when the treasury market maybe is becoming a 289 00:15:23,800 --> 00:15:27,000 Speaker 4: little less reliable, as you just saw a downgrade from 290 00:15:27,120 --> 00:15:30,960 Speaker 4: the third of the three big rating agencies, that maybe 291 00:15:30,960 --> 00:15:34,480 Speaker 4: should be a cause for some concern, but otherwise, crypto 292 00:15:34,560 --> 00:15:37,640 Speaker 4: in general sort of the irony is it's being boosted 293 00:15:37,800 --> 00:15:41,760 Speaker 4: by regulation because they were the least regulated thing that 294 00:15:41,920 --> 00:15:44,400 Speaker 4: existed and they could do whatever they wanted. And it 295 00:15:44,440 --> 00:15:47,040 Speaker 4: turned out that was not good for the crypto industry 296 00:15:47,120 --> 00:15:49,720 Speaker 4: because they went too far and they stole too much money, 297 00:15:49,760 --> 00:15:53,520 Speaker 4: and people lost their life savings and got scammed and 298 00:15:53,560 --> 00:15:56,760 Speaker 4: got defrauded, and there were a lot of problems. And 299 00:15:56,840 --> 00:16:01,040 Speaker 4: so now they're writing rules to make people feel comfortable 300 00:16:01,160 --> 00:16:05,080 Speaker 4: about the crypto industry. And it's interesting that these are 301 00:16:05,160 --> 00:16:08,120 Speaker 4: rules that were essentially very similar to what Sam Bankman 302 00:16:08,200 --> 00:16:11,040 Speaker 4: Freed was proposing back when he was on the Hill, 303 00:16:11,680 --> 00:16:14,960 Speaker 4: you know, asking for regulation by the commodity in futures. 304 00:16:14,720 --> 00:16:16,240 Speaker 3: Right before his company blew up. 305 00:16:16,320 --> 00:16:18,920 Speaker 4: Yeah, before he went to jail. So you know, and 306 00:16:19,000 --> 00:16:21,960 Speaker 4: Trump himself was a big skeptic of crypto back in 307 00:16:21,960 --> 00:16:24,800 Speaker 4: the day, kind of in the same vein as Jamie 308 00:16:24,880 --> 00:16:27,720 Speaker 4: Diamond and Warren Buffett. But now he's he's in the business, 309 00:16:27,760 --> 00:16:30,560 Speaker 4: so he's a proponent. So yeah, everything seems to be 310 00:16:30,640 --> 00:16:33,720 Speaker 4: designed on Capitol Hill to do whatever they can to 311 00:16:33,800 --> 00:16:37,440 Speaker 4: help the crypto industry. And you know, there's I think 312 00:16:37,760 --> 00:16:41,800 Speaker 4: a genuinely large degree of risk in that, you know, 313 00:16:41,880 --> 00:16:45,160 Speaker 4: the volatility of these assets they're just not They don't 314 00:16:45,160 --> 00:16:47,560 Speaker 4: have the tradition of risk management that the sort of 315 00:16:47,800 --> 00:16:53,160 Speaker 4: you know, more established banking and financial system have, So 316 00:16:53,240 --> 00:16:56,680 Speaker 4: there's a lot more volatility and there's no fundamental value 317 00:16:56,680 --> 00:16:58,720 Speaker 4: in a lot of these sort of meme coins or 318 00:16:59,040 --> 00:17:02,600 Speaker 4: different tokens. I mean stable coins are different, obviously, but 319 00:17:02,720 --> 00:17:05,239 Speaker 4: even stable coins, it's going to be a lot of 320 00:17:05,720 --> 00:17:08,440 Speaker 4: tech companies starting these. One way of thinking of it 321 00:17:08,480 --> 00:17:10,560 Speaker 4: is you've sort of had banks that were becoming more 322 00:17:10,600 --> 00:17:13,159 Speaker 4: technologically focused, and now you're having tech companies that are 323 00:17:13,200 --> 00:17:15,920 Speaker 4: becoming more bank focused, and which do you feel safe 324 00:17:15,960 --> 00:17:18,080 Speaker 4: for putting your money in. It's a real question. The 325 00:17:18,200 --> 00:17:20,919 Speaker 4: risk is that there we're having a bubble, which you 326 00:17:20,920 --> 00:17:24,200 Speaker 4: know is very possible. We had one in twenty twenty 327 00:17:24,200 --> 00:17:28,320 Speaker 4: two that popped, and then if it all turns around, 328 00:17:28,520 --> 00:17:31,879 Speaker 4: then you have a big you know. And the more 329 00:17:31,600 --> 00:17:35,120 Speaker 4: the more that it's a traditional financial system is connected 330 00:17:35,160 --> 00:17:38,160 Speaker 4: to it, the more risk you have for the broader 331 00:17:38,359 --> 00:17:42,160 Speaker 4: economy and people who aren't connected to crypto. 332 00:17:42,880 --> 00:17:45,240 Speaker 2: Good Tanka weren't. There's some limits that were put on 333 00:17:45,560 --> 00:17:49,080 Speaker 2: the banks to prevent them having too much exposure to crypto, 334 00:17:49,440 --> 00:17:53,960 Speaker 2: and the administrator's been talking about pairing those back. 335 00:17:54,080 --> 00:17:54,600 Speaker 3: Is that right? 336 00:17:55,440 --> 00:17:59,120 Speaker 1: So trust regulators have indeed sort of reversed those guardrails 337 00:17:59,160 --> 00:18:00,800 Speaker 1: that were put in place f I mean the twenty 338 00:18:00,880 --> 00:18:04,280 Speaker 1: twenty two issues in the industry, But since then they've 339 00:18:04,280 --> 00:18:07,320 Speaker 1: tried to underscore the importance of banks that are holding 340 00:18:07,320 --> 00:18:11,120 Speaker 1: crypto custody, as recently as this month saying banks really 341 00:18:11,160 --> 00:18:14,080 Speaker 1: should bear in mind that the onus is on those 342 00:18:14,119 --> 00:18:16,840 Speaker 1: institutions for any types they have with crypto firms to 343 00:18:16,880 --> 00:18:19,920 Speaker 1: make sure that they are disclosed adequately and spell it 344 00:18:19,960 --> 00:18:22,840 Speaker 1: for their customers with the risks are which is commonplace. Right, 345 00:18:22,840 --> 00:18:23,680 Speaker 1: that's an expectation. 346 00:18:24,040 --> 00:18:25,919 Speaker 2: You know, we saw that really work very well in 347 00:18:25,960 --> 00:18:28,560 Speaker 2: two thousand and eight. Just to just be careful, just 348 00:18:28,640 --> 00:18:30,840 Speaker 2: make sure you know the risks on your balance sheet 349 00:18:31,040 --> 00:18:33,640 Speaker 2: if you were one of the big banks. There has 350 00:18:33,680 --> 00:18:37,399 Speaker 2: to be something a little bit alarming about this zeal 351 00:18:37,600 --> 00:18:42,000 Speaker 2: to have this whole new form of finance that, really, 352 00:18:42,520 --> 00:18:46,359 Speaker 2: although it's somewhat regulated, now makes a virtue of not 353 00:18:46,560 --> 00:18:51,520 Speaker 2: being very transparent, of being difficult to track, and somewhat 354 00:18:51,560 --> 00:18:54,520 Speaker 2: outside the traditional system. You have the Peter Tiels of 355 00:18:54,520 --> 00:18:57,920 Speaker 2: this world and others they actively want to you would say, 356 00:18:57,920 --> 00:19:02,720 Speaker 2: dis intermediate you know, bring the final outside of traditional banks. 357 00:19:02,800 --> 00:19:05,840 Speaker 2: It is a threat to the traditional financial system ultimately, 358 00:19:05,920 --> 00:19:07,960 Speaker 2: and its administration seems to be all in favor. 359 00:19:08,600 --> 00:19:11,000 Speaker 4: Well, I mean in two ways. So I would say 360 00:19:11,160 --> 00:19:14,439 Speaker 4: one thing that's been a rallying cry among Republicans this 361 00:19:14,520 --> 00:19:18,760 Speaker 4: year has been this claim that the big banks were debanking, 362 00:19:19,440 --> 00:19:25,359 Speaker 4: meaning denying banking services to crypto related companies, just on 363 00:19:25,400 --> 00:19:28,520 Speaker 4: the basis of sort of reputation or not liking them, 364 00:19:28,640 --> 00:19:30,560 Speaker 4: and that this was a wrong thing and that it 365 00:19:30,640 --> 00:19:33,840 Speaker 4: had to be stopped. And so you know, there was 366 00:19:34,000 --> 00:19:36,760 Speaker 4: put in place a change so that you know, regulators 367 00:19:36,760 --> 00:19:41,800 Speaker 4: couldn't consider reputation risk when they're assessing banks. Banks have 368 00:19:41,880 --> 00:19:45,040 Speaker 4: a lot of reasons why they legitimately had to have 369 00:19:45,080 --> 00:19:48,119 Speaker 4: concerns about banking with these crypto companies. One of the 370 00:19:48,240 --> 00:19:50,200 Speaker 4: with them is just how onerous it is to do 371 00:19:50,320 --> 00:19:53,320 Speaker 4: the anti money laundering checks. This is a system that's 372 00:19:53,359 --> 00:19:57,680 Speaker 4: designed to get around the regulated financial system. It has 373 00:19:57,800 --> 00:20:03,080 Speaker 4: been used by criminal and illicit funds. So now they're 374 00:20:03,119 --> 00:20:05,720 Speaker 4: almost being pushed that you have to bank crypto. If 375 00:20:05,760 --> 00:20:08,880 Speaker 4: you're not, you're somehow debanking. You're doing this illegal and 376 00:20:09,000 --> 00:20:11,200 Speaker 4: sort of almost like a First Amendment the kind of thing. 377 00:20:11,760 --> 00:20:14,560 Speaker 4: On the other front, there is this real concern that 378 00:20:14,720 --> 00:20:17,359 Speaker 4: some of the rules that have traditionally applied to the 379 00:20:17,400 --> 00:20:20,680 Speaker 4: financial sector, like the US has always had this concept 380 00:20:20,680 --> 00:20:24,240 Speaker 4: of the separation of commerce and banking. In other words, 381 00:20:24,240 --> 00:20:26,840 Speaker 4: we don't want Walmart to also be a bank because 382 00:20:26,960 --> 00:20:30,680 Speaker 4: then somehow they're going to you know, prioritize their suppliers 383 00:20:30,720 --> 00:20:34,879 Speaker 4: and their customers over their competitors. Stable coins are going 384 00:20:34,960 --> 00:20:36,720 Speaker 4: to be allowed to be issued by a lot of 385 00:20:36,720 --> 00:20:40,360 Speaker 4: tech companies, or at least the private tech companies, and 386 00:20:40,440 --> 00:20:43,800 Speaker 4: so you know, this is sort of these traditional rules 387 00:20:43,840 --> 00:20:46,399 Speaker 4: are just being scrapped in the interest of helping the 388 00:20:46,440 --> 00:20:49,320 Speaker 4: sort of crypto industry. And so yeah, I think for 389 00:20:49,359 --> 00:20:51,399 Speaker 4: the big banks and for little banks, it's sort of 390 00:20:51,600 --> 00:20:53,720 Speaker 4: a concerning development development. 391 00:20:53,640 --> 00:20:54,240 Speaker 3: Okay, Tangia. 392 00:20:54,440 --> 00:20:56,920 Speaker 2: Is there a concern in Washington that the financial system 393 00:20:56,960 --> 00:20:58,360 Speaker 2: is going to be a bit hard to control as 394 00:20:58,359 --> 00:21:00,480 Speaker 2: a result of this or is that just not a 395 00:21:00,520 --> 00:21:02,919 Speaker 2: voice that you hear very much when you're talking to people. 396 00:21:03,520 --> 00:21:06,920 Speaker 1: Not quite the voice I'm hearing in Washington. But either 397 00:21:07,000 --> 00:21:10,199 Speaker 1: former regulators on both sides, folks who work at the 398 00:21:10,200 --> 00:21:15,399 Speaker 1: agencies under different administrations, academics researchers all point to the 399 00:21:15,400 --> 00:21:20,520 Speaker 1: fact that it is increasingly becoming concerning that by at 400 00:21:20,520 --> 00:21:25,240 Speaker 1: the same time deregulating and welcoming less traditional access to 401 00:21:25,680 --> 00:21:28,960 Speaker 1: the financial system, and that includes crypto but also thinking 402 00:21:28,960 --> 00:21:31,640 Speaker 1: about FinTechs that are trying to get access to bank 403 00:21:31,760 --> 00:21:34,960 Speaker 1: charters and making their positions in that way, as well 404 00:21:35,000 --> 00:21:39,359 Speaker 1: as a reduced workforce, meaning the ranks of regulators who 405 00:21:39,400 --> 00:21:43,640 Speaker 1: are actually day to day trying to evaluate how banks 406 00:21:43,640 --> 00:21:46,639 Speaker 1: have tie ups with FinTechs and crypto firms, what that 407 00:21:46,680 --> 00:21:50,080 Speaker 1: looks like, and other potential novel activities that are around 408 00:21:50,119 --> 00:21:52,879 Speaker 1: the corner that are not yet known. There's concern about 409 00:21:53,440 --> 00:21:57,400 Speaker 1: altogether that spells potential trouble. But they'd say it's too 410 00:21:57,400 --> 00:21:59,800 Speaker 1: soon to say whether a christ is imminine or not. 411 00:22:00,160 --> 00:22:03,879 Speaker 1: But the signs based on previous crises and the ways 412 00:22:03,920 --> 00:22:06,280 Speaker 1: that the administration, the pace of the administration is moving 413 00:22:06,560 --> 00:22:08,000 Speaker 1: with its effort is trolley. 414 00:22:08,520 --> 00:22:10,200 Speaker 2: I mean, as a final thought to you, Christine, I 415 00:22:10,240 --> 00:22:13,520 Speaker 2: mean anyone who pays any attention to these different eras 416 00:22:13,560 --> 00:22:17,960 Speaker 2: of banking regulation basil and the domestic changes and rules. 417 00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:22,159 Speaker 2: I mean, the process can seem insanely slow, but I 418 00:22:22,200 --> 00:22:24,040 Speaker 2: guess you'd argue it has to be slow because it's 419 00:22:24,080 --> 00:22:26,720 Speaker 2: so complicated, and we know the cost of making a 420 00:22:26,720 --> 00:22:29,960 Speaker 2: mistake of moving too quickly could be very high for 421 00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:33,080 Speaker 2: all of us when it comes to the financial sector. 422 00:22:33,520 --> 00:22:36,600 Speaker 2: You know, you think about that process and then you 423 00:22:36,600 --> 00:22:38,840 Speaker 2: think about the way this administration does things. I mean, 424 00:22:38,880 --> 00:22:40,200 Speaker 2: it's not a good fit, is it. 425 00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:43,080 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean this is an administration that likes to 426 00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:45,960 Speaker 4: do things quickly and have quick results, and the pace 427 00:22:46,080 --> 00:22:50,040 Speaker 4: of financial regulation and sort of supervision of you know, 428 00:22:50,080 --> 00:22:54,040 Speaker 4: important companies takes time. It takes effort, it takes you know, 429 00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:59,080 Speaker 4: a methodical approach, and that's not really the way things 430 00:22:59,080 --> 00:23:01,200 Speaker 4: are being done. Oh there is, you know, I think 431 00:23:01,240 --> 00:23:04,119 Speaker 4: a reason to be concerned that the approach being taken 432 00:23:04,480 --> 00:23:06,159 Speaker 4: at some point will regret it. 433 00:23:07,200 --> 00:23:09,800 Speaker 2: We've gone a little bit into the weeds, and there's 434 00:23:09,840 --> 00:23:13,320 Speaker 2: probably still plenty that we don't understand. The lesson of 435 00:23:13,359 --> 00:23:15,520 Speaker 2: experience is that in a few years time something terrible 436 00:23:15,520 --> 00:23:17,440 Speaker 2: will happen. And I wish that we'd understood at least 437 00:23:17,480 --> 00:23:20,439 Speaker 2: one of the things we've discussed today better. But in 438 00:23:20,480 --> 00:23:23,280 Speaker 2: the meantime, you've been very good guide to Katango and Christine. 439 00:23:23,280 --> 00:23:24,000 Speaker 3: Thanks you very much. 440 00:23:24,320 --> 00:23:25,920 Speaker 1: Thanks for having us, Thank you. 441 00:23:31,280 --> 00:23:33,440 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to Trump Andomics from Bloomerg. It was 442 00:23:33,480 --> 00:23:36,080 Speaker 2: hosted by me Stephanie Flanders and I was joined this 443 00:23:36,119 --> 00:23:41,440 Speaker 2: week by Christine Harper and Katanga Johnson. Trump and Nomics 444 00:23:41,520 --> 00:23:45,160 Speaker 2: is produced by Samasadi and Moses and with help from 445 00:23:45,200 --> 00:23:48,359 Speaker 2: Amy Keen and special thanks again this week to Rachel 446 00:23:48,440 --> 00:23:53,200 Speaker 2: Lewis Chrisky and Dashelle Bennett. Sound design is by Blake 447 00:23:53,240 --> 00:23:57,439 Speaker 2: Maples and Sage Bowman is head of Bloomberg Podcast and 448 00:23:57,520 --> 00:24:00,320 Speaker 2: please help others find the show and enjoy it, rate 449 00:24:00,400 --> 00:24:02,760 Speaker 2: it and review it highly wherever you listen