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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast, but this one.

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Speaker 2: Is good.

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Speaker 3: Thursday for Action. Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the bonus Week fifteen episode of the Action

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Speaker 1: Networks podcast, where we will give you our full week

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Speaker 1: fifteen Sunday six pack. I am Chris Raybond joint is

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Speaker 1: always by my dude, Stucky, the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation.

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Speaker 2: Stuck, what's going on?

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Speaker 4: It's going on, Let's get to it. It's only getting crazier.

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Speaker 1: We'll try to keep it short and sweet, but we'll

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Speaker 1: give you our six picks.

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Speaker 2: To start us off.

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Speaker 1: You went with the Indianapolis Colts, and then I went

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Speaker 1: with the Cincinnati Bengals. So Colts minus two and a

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Speaker 1: half for you Bengals plus two and a half for me,

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Speaker 1: that three. It doesn't matter for the contest either way.

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Speaker 1: But let's go to your second pick.

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Speaker 3: We got yeah, for my second pick of the weekend

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Speaker 3: Week fifteen six pack, I am going with the Pittsburgh

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Speaker 3: Steelers plus one at bet MGM. And I should clarify

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Speaker 3: that just for contest purses, we're going with one point

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Speaker 3: for all of our picks this week, just because of

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Speaker 3: all the uncertainty Steelers got some good news on the

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Speaker 3: defensive front. You know, TJ wa Alex Heismith looked.

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Speaker 4: Like, you know, there was.

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Speaker 3: Their status was up in the air earlier the week,

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Speaker 3: and it looks like both are treading toward playing. Joe

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Speaker 3: Hayden also went from did not practice to limited yesterday.

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Speaker 4: He would be a huge addition.

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Speaker 3: You know, I think they're one in nine without him

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Speaker 3: since he's arrived in Pittsburgh. And this Tennessee offense has

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Speaker 3: just been dreadful since they lost Derrick Henry and they

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Speaker 3: lost A. J.

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Speaker 4: Brown.

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Speaker 3: You know, Julio Jones is back, but it's just like

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Speaker 3: all right, just take away really one guy.

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Speaker 4: He's not even playing a full game a lot of

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Speaker 4: the time.

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Speaker 3: So I just think that the Steelers defense can play

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Speaker 3: up here in a game where we don't have to

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Speaker 3: go over all the numbers.

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Speaker 4: We could we do it every week ad in Auseia.

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Speaker 3: If it's a classic Tomlin spot, raw rock spot for

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Speaker 3: their season, what a raw ron Mike Tomlin spot hung

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Speaker 3: on the game to day.

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Speaker 4: Steelers need this game much more than Tennessee.

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Speaker 3: I just don't think that this Tennessee offense is scary

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Speaker 3: enough to take advantage of some of the holes in

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Speaker 3: the Pittsburgh defense, but it's a Pittsburgh defense, as I mentioned,

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Speaker 3: that's going to be healthier. Classic Tomlin spot here, He's

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Speaker 3: been absolutely money in this spot. You should get a

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Speaker 3: raucus crowd. And I don't trust this Tennessee offense yet.

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Speaker 3: So a week where there's a ton of uncertainty, this

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Speaker 3: is one of the games where I have a you know,

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Speaker 3: a fair amount of confidence of at least who's gonna play.

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Speaker 3: And it doesn't look like there's a lot of issues here,

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Speaker 3: So I'll trust the time on spot and go with

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Speaker 3: the Steelers.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I love this one. I'll be joining you.

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Speaker 1: Obviously, we do talk about the numbers, so I'll just

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Speaker 1: throw out one my favorite one. Mike Tomlin in his

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Speaker 1: career as a dog versus an opponent with an equal

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Speaker 1: or better winning percentage thirty eight and one against the

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Speaker 1: spread seventy nine percent, including three and two this season.

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Speaker 1: So last week was last week, this week was this week,

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Speaker 1: next week will be next week.

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Speaker 2: I like this as well.

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Speaker 1: This would have been one of my picks if you

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Speaker 1: hadn't taken it with the second pick of the draft

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Speaker 1: for my second pick and the fourth overall of the

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Speaker 1: Week fifteen six pack, I am going with and a man,

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Speaker 1: this is gonna be risky, but we're going with the

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Speaker 1: Houston Texans plus four and a half against the now

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Speaker 1: urban meyerless Jacksonville Jaguars.

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Speaker 2: Listen.

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Speaker 1: I know the line moved from three to four and

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Speaker 1: a half five at some books with Meyer getting fired,

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Speaker 1: and I don't think he was worth that much to

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Speaker 1: the spread. But I don't think he was worth nothing

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Speaker 1: to the spread, so I do think the line should

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Speaker 1: have moved in the jags favor. But I like the

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Speaker 1: Texans even at plus three before all this news broke.

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Speaker 1: It's probably riskier now because the Jags will play a

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Speaker 1: little bit more inspired here, you know, with Meyer out

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Speaker 1: of the picture, and try to show everyone that you

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Speaker 1: know he was really the problem. But this is still

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Speaker 1: the Jaguars. They still have problems. I still don't think

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Speaker 1: they should be laying anything more even a field goal

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Speaker 1: against anyone, even the Texans, especially since the Texans stumped

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Speaker 1: him in Week one. And I think Davis Mills right

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Speaker 1: now is actually playing better then obviously than Trevor Lawrence

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Speaker 1: is playing, but better than Tyrod Taylor even was playing

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Speaker 1: earlier in the year. The last couple of games, at

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Speaker 1: least Davis Mills averaging three hundred and twenty one passing yards.

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Speaker 1: He has three touchdowns, one pick, and he's completing seventy

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Speaker 1: one percent of his passes.

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Speaker 2: So he started to turn the corner a little bit.

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Speaker 1: You're not gonna need much here to keep it close

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Speaker 1: with the Jaguars. They're averaging nine point one points per

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Speaker 1: game over their last seven. Now their interim coach is

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Speaker 1: gonna be Darryl Bevum, so I mean, he was in

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Speaker 1: charge of the offense the whole time. So let's let's

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Speaker 1: not get ahead of ourselves and think that like there's

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Speaker 1: gonna be some massive changes on a you know, essentially

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Speaker 1: what's a short week for them with Maya kind of

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Speaker 1: getting canned in you know, midweek.

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Speaker 2: So I still think there's issues with this offense.

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Speaker 1: They're identical in Dvoa are these two teams and Houston

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Speaker 1: actually and used to deal with some injuries, which really,

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Speaker 1: if there was any reason for this line to move,

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Speaker 1: it's probably more you know, their injuries.

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Speaker 2: The whybacker Gruge Hill looks like he's gonna miss so

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Speaker 2: that that is a big loss.

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Speaker 1: But Houston comes into the game with the only competent

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Speaker 1: units in this game. On paper, at least, they are

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Speaker 1: thirteenth in defensive DVOA and they are nineteenth and special

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Speaker 1: teams the Jaguars are twenty six, are worse than all

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Speaker 1: three facets. So I just don't think the Jags should

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Speaker 1: be laying this many points, even though I do think

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Speaker 1: the Meyer firing will galvanize the team a little bit.

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Speaker 1: But now you're bringing into the possibility of Houston losing

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Speaker 1: by a field goal and you cover, or Houston losing

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Speaker 1: by four and you cover. Those are two key numbers,

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Speaker 1: So you're expecting the Jags how to win, probably by

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Speaker 1: a touchdown, in order for them to cover the spread.

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Speaker 1: I think the odds are still in Houston's favor to cover,

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Speaker 1: but it's gonna be interesting.

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Speaker 4: I'm staying far away from this game, and so I

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Speaker 4: wish you luck.

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Speaker 2: I don't know.

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Speaker 3: I guess if you're arguing about this game, I guess

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Speaker 3: you want to just take the points between in the

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Speaker 3: toilet bowld And yeah, I mean, you make a good

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Speaker 3: point about Darryl Bevill having you know, already control over

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Speaker 3: the offense.

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Speaker 4: Is there going to be an element of surprise? Maybe not?

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Speaker 3: And I had a piece out on You can check

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Speaker 3: it out on Action Nework dot com. The Action Network

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Speaker 3: gap about how teams have performed the game after they

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Speaker 3: fire coach midseason.

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Speaker 4: They've actually exceed expectations.

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Speaker 3: I think a lot some of that is the element

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Speaker 3: of surprise, which might not be here, as you alluded to.

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Speaker 4: Some of that is.

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Speaker 3: Locker room morale, which could be here in the case

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Speaker 3: of Urban Meyer. We saw with the Raiders earlier this

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Speaker 3: year they were dogs at Denver and one by ten

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Speaker 3: the first game after Gruden, and then you know after

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Speaker 3: the results aren't great after that first game. So we'll

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Speaker 3: see if the Jags can play up for one game

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Speaker 3: with revenge against the Texans. But yeah, this game is ugly.

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Speaker 3: But Trevor Lawrence, yeah he hasn't looked great as of late.

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Speaker 3: So you have that working in your favor as well

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Speaker 3: for my and by the way, I do want to

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Speaker 3: remind everyone for my Colt's pick and your Bengals pick.

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Speaker 3: If you want to hear those breakdowns, check out the

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Speaker 3: previous episode in the podcast where we go through all

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Speaker 3: the games and then.

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Speaker 4: Our top picks weekend.

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Speaker 3: We also cover our favorite totals, teasers and money line dogs.

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Speaker 3: But for my third pick and the fifth overall of

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Speaker 3: the weekend six pack, I'm going with the Philadelphia Eagles

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Speaker 3: minus eleven and a half if at MGM right now,

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Speaker 3: that's as high as I will go to. I'll tell

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Speaker 3: you that I did consider the Browns actually at plus

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Speaker 3: three and a half. If you look at just a

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Speaker 3: dpaper player for the past five years, Nick Bullins and

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Speaker 3: Baker Mayfield, among qualifiers are basically that even I think

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Speaker 3: twenty eighth and twenty ninth. Now, I do think some

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Speaker 3: of that has to do with Shanahan and the situation

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Speaker 3: in San Franz, because Jimmy g is actually third overall,

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Speaker 3: which what behind I think Brady and Mahomes, But I

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Speaker 3: don't think it's like that big of a drop off

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Speaker 3: between you know, Mayfield bagged up to then Keenum to

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Speaker 3: then Mullins. But just all these cluster injuries, they are

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Speaker 3: hard to and who knows what else is gonna pop up,

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Speaker 3: and so it's really hard to project what exactly is

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Speaker 3: gonna happen. But I almost thought about taking the Bruns.

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Speaker 3: I think this line has gone a little too far

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Speaker 3: once across the three. I also thought about Seattle. I

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Speaker 3: mean taking an under in this division. In this spot,

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Speaker 3: we talked about this as a bad McVeigh spot, Seattle

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Speaker 3: playing for their season, short week for the Rams after

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Speaker 3: a huge win, and all the COVID issues the.

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Speaker 4: Rams are dealing with.

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Speaker 3: Seattle has dealt with the least amount of COVID over

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Speaker 3: the past two years. But then yesterday Tyler Lockett pops up,

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Speaker 3: so it's like, all right, he's obviously a huge piece

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Speaker 3: of that offense. And then once one pops off, is it,

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Speaker 3: like you know? Is Metcalf gonna go on there tomorrow?

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Speaker 4: Like you never? You don't know.

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Speaker 3: So once you know there's smoke, there are a lot

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Speaker 3: of times fire falls right behind it. So, uh, those

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Speaker 3: are the two I passed on. I're just gonna go

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Speaker 3: with the Eagles here. I this has truck written all

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Speaker 3: over it. I mean, I this is setting up for

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Speaker 3: a disaster for Washington and maybe the game even gets

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Speaker 3: pushed back or canceled.

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Speaker 4: I don't know. Washington, you know, doesn't have their top corner.

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Speaker 4: They have.

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Speaker 3: Every They don't have an intact unit like they have.

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Speaker 3: They have two starting linebackers that are in as of now,

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Speaker 3: but all their backups and another one are probably not

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Speaker 3: gonna go missing their top corner, almost their entire too

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Speaker 3: deep on the defensive line is out.

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Speaker 4: But then on the offensive side, it's just a disaster.

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Speaker 4: I mean it's like.

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Speaker 3: Samuel and Sims doesn't get McLaurin as concussion. Logan Thomas

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Speaker 3: is out for the year. Even in the backfield like McKissick,

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Speaker 3: you don't have McKissick. And then the offensive line, you

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Speaker 3: have no centers left. I think they're gonna start this

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Speaker 3: kid tough for his first NFL game, undrafted kid out

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Speaker 3: of Kentucky. You know, they were using Brandon Sheriff as

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Speaker 3: an emergency center and him practicing snaps, he said, for

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Speaker 3: the first time ever in his life, and he said,

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Speaker 3: I pray to God, you don't see me at center.

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Speaker 3: They have issues at right tackle, center.

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Speaker 4: And then quarterback.

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Speaker 3: Kind of key goes on the COVID list this morning,

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Speaker 3: Kyle Allen was already on there. So you're talking about

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Speaker 3: Shermer making his first NFL start, or Garrett Gilbert, who

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Speaker 3: they signed a half hour ago. He said, some people

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Speaker 3: say he might start. He did have some experience in

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Speaker 3: twenty seventeen with Carolina, which is like the same staff,

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Speaker 3: so I guess he has some familiarity with the system,

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Speaker 3: but he has no chemistry. Talking about a quarterback with

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Speaker 3: a new a center playing for the first time, a

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Speaker 3: quarterback you just signed off the street from the Patriots

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Speaker 3: practice squad. Uh, Eagles off of a bye. This is

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Speaker 3: just an absolute disaster waiting to happen for Washington.

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Speaker 4: I wouldn't.

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Speaker 3: It's not gonna be as bad as Kendall Hinton when

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Speaker 3: he had a start for the Broncos last year.

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Speaker 4: But this could get ugly.

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Speaker 3: I just the new center and new quarterback against that

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Speaker 3: interior Eagles defensive line, it could get messy. And then

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Speaker 3: Washington doesn't have any defensive line. Eagle should control the

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Speaker 3: line of scrimmage the.

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Speaker 4: Entire game in a game they need off of a bye.

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Speaker 4: It doesn't.

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Speaker 3: It's this has a truck written all over it. So uh,

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Speaker 3: similar to my teaser, we're going with all Pennsylvania teams.

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Speaker 3: Those will be my final two picks of my three

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Speaker 3: of the weekend six pack.

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Speaker 4: We're going all Pennsylvania.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, you know, it's it's tough when you

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Speaker 1: a line start at four and then it's up to

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Speaker 1: you know, eleven and a half twelve. It's like psychologically

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Speaker 1: it's like you don't want to dive in, but I agree.

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Speaker 1: I mean, how are the how is Washington gonna stay

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Speaker 1: competitive here?

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Speaker 3: I mean it's basically like they're it's almost like half

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Speaker 3: their practice squad is gonna be playing.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, this is I mean, this is a true preseason game.

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Speaker 1: It's like it's like it's like one of those games

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Speaker 1: where the Eagles want to play their starters, like in

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Speaker 1: the third preseason game, and then Washington's like, we're not

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Speaker 1: playing anyone, Like that's essentially what this game is.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, and then whatever quarterback you have playing just

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Speaker 3: like it's Friday, and then you find out Heinekens goes

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Speaker 3: and less.

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Speaker 4: Like now you're trying to get a game plan.

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Speaker 3: In place with a new center by the way, uh,

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Speaker 3: like your fourth string center, trying to get a new

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Speaker 3: game in place, and then you have injuries at one

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Speaker 3: receiver covid issues a receiver tight end. I mean you

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Speaker 3: gotta get a game plan in place in like a day.

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Speaker 3: It's a nightmare.

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Speaker 4: Uh.

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Speaker 3: And then the defensive line and then your a corner

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Speaker 3: and uh, it's it's a mess. I mean even the

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Speaker 3: snaps on like punts could could get ugly. I just

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Speaker 3: like the best, the most valuable player on this sea.

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Speaker 3: You got like Doron Payne, Brandon Sheriff, and like Trustway,

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Speaker 3: Trustway my punt fifteen times in the skin.

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Speaker 4: You gotta hope he pins Eagles with the one every time.

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Speaker 4: This is messy? You agree, all right?

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Speaker 1: For my third pick and the sixth overall of the

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Speaker 1: sixth pack, I'm going head to head with you stuck

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Speaker 1: for the second straight week, going with the England Patriots

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Speaker 1: plus two and a half at the Colts.

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Speaker 2: And for me, this is just comes down to a

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Speaker 2: couple of things.

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Speaker 1: Number One, the Patriots, like the Colts, are one of

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Speaker 1: the teams that has not really been struck by COVID issues,

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Speaker 1: So we kind of know what we're getting here. It's

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Speaker 1: on Saturday, so hopefully we don't get any surprises between

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Speaker 1: now and UH and when this releases and when they play.

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Speaker 1: But listen, I get it that, you know, like called COVID.

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Speaker 4: Even he's out, he didn't here.

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Speaker 2: You know, it's funny.

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Speaker 1: It's like I shouldn't even laugh at that because it's

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Speaker 1: might like I would not believe it. But Belichick thirty

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Speaker 1: fourteen and two sixty eight percent in his career as

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Speaker 1: an underdog, and yeah, some people will say why that

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Speaker 1: was with Brady, that's fair, but you know, and I've

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Speaker 1: been thinking this for a couple of weeks now watching

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Speaker 1: these Patriots team, I'm just like, yo, just like, take

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Speaker 1: Cam Newton off this team, because like they did it

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Speaker 1: with Matt Castle, they're doing it.

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Speaker 2: With Mac Jones.

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Speaker 1: Cam Newton's you know, unfortunately now pretty bad. So I'm

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Speaker 1: not obviously putting the full weight into that. But he's

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Speaker 1: three and one as a dog this season, you know,

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Speaker 1: twenty and twelve in his career, sixty three percent on

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Speaker 1: long rest, India's ninth and DVA so they're playing well,

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Speaker 1: they're underrated, they're better than the record, not denying that

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Speaker 1: at all, but New England's second. Maybe they don't deserve

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Speaker 1: to be second, you know, something like they obviously get

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Speaker 1: its schedule adjusted, so they get a lot of credit

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Speaker 1: for beating the Titans and blowing them out, but the

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Speaker 1: Titans really didn't have their squad that they had for

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Speaker 1: much of the year. But you look at the DVOA

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Speaker 1: metric in itself, and the Patriots are double the Colts,

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Speaker 1: Like the Patriots are plus twenty seven, the Colts are

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Speaker 1: plus thirteen. So you know, there's some wible room here.

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Speaker 1: I think I still think this game should be closer

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Speaker 1: to a pick them. I've seen this movie before with

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Speaker 1: the Coats, and you know, going against the Patriots, the

320
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Speaker 1: Patriots just loves sticking it to them.

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Speaker 2: The Colts haven't beat the Patriots.

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Speaker 1: It's two thousand and nine regular postseason, so it's been

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Speaker 1: over a decade. And I'm looking at the Patriots this

324
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Speaker 1: year and you know, they're nine and four. They've had

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Speaker 1: some easy wins. They've played the Jets a couple of times. Yes,

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Speaker 1: they played the Titans without a lot of guys, but

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Speaker 1: they played the Bucks and lost by two earlier in

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Speaker 1: the year when they were still kind of getting together.

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Speaker 1: This Patriots, he've always improves down a stretch. Two of

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Speaker 1: their losses all year that won against Miami that they

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Speaker 1: gave away, and their Bucks loss have come.

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Speaker 2: By under three points.

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Speaker 1: So eleven of their thirteen games, the Patriots would have

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Speaker 1: covered this two and a half number. So I'm just

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Speaker 1: gonna take it here. I like the Patriots. I think

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Speaker 1: they can. I think Johnson Taylor is still gonna get

337
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Speaker 1: his But I actually do trust Mac Jones and his

338
00:16:07,000 --> 00:16:10,320
Speaker 1: Patriots pass offense a little more than the Coats, just

339
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Speaker 1: because I know Belichick. He might not be able to

340
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Speaker 1: take away Taylor because no one does, but he probably

341
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Speaker 1: will be.

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Speaker 2: Able to take away Michael Pittman.

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Speaker 1: And I also like the fact that the Patriots haven't

344
00:16:22,280 --> 00:16:25,360
Speaker 1: really thrown the ball in like three weeks, so you're

345
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Speaker 1: gonna get I think you're gonna get some wrinkles. Patriots

346
00:16:27,360 --> 00:16:29,760
Speaker 1: best team in the week at you know, trick plays

347
00:16:29,800 --> 00:16:31,840
Speaker 1: and things like that, and they're coming out of a buy,

348
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Speaker 1: as are the Colts, obviously. But I actually like some

349
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Speaker 1: of the matchup edges here for the Patriots. I think

350
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Speaker 1: this is a toss up game, So taking them at

351
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Speaker 1: to two and a half, don't think it'll get to

352
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Speaker 1: Three's already Friday, it's about twenty four hours out or

353
00:16:45,640 --> 00:16:48,000
Speaker 1: so a little more from the game, so I doubt

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Speaker 1: it gets to three.

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Speaker 2: So taking a two and a half here.

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Speaker 3: I mean, yeah, Belichick is a dog the Patriots right now.

357
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Speaker 3: You might get some late public money. They'll probably more

358
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Speaker 3: likely to drive that down than up. And yeah, I

359
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Speaker 3: like this matchup for the Colton Yeah, I mean, I

360
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Speaker 3: just I have the Patriots is extremely orated right now,

361
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Speaker 3: and we'll find out from I mean you mentioned the

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Speaker 3: Titans game. I mean I just basically throw out that result.

363
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Speaker 3: Nobody playing on their offense. The Browns, you know, both

364
00:17:14,920 --> 00:17:19,160
Speaker 3: their backs are out. Baker Mayfield is playing completely crippled.

365
00:17:19,160 --> 00:17:20,879
Speaker 3: I mean he couldn't even I don't think he finished

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Speaker 3: the half. You know, then you play you get Sam

367
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Speaker 3: Darnold seeing ghosts, and then you play the Bills in

368
00:17:27,640 --> 00:17:30,040
Speaker 3: a hurricane. So like all these offenses if they faced

369
00:17:30,600 --> 00:17:34,000
Speaker 3: that are you know, pumping up their defensive numbers, you

370
00:17:34,000 --> 00:17:36,520
Speaker 3: adjust them for the opponent, like, yeah, that it's the Titans,

371
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Speaker 3: but it wasn't the Titans. Yeah it was the Bills,

372
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Speaker 3: but it was in a monsoon. Yeah it was the Browns,

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Speaker 3: but they were missing you know, their their their entire

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Speaker 3: backfield and their quarterback was completely hampered.

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Speaker 4: So we'll find out.

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Speaker 3: But taking Belichick as a dog and his Patriots team

377
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Speaker 3: right now, that's one I think in covered seven straight.

378
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Speaker 4: Hey, and I'm laying two and a half, which means

379
00:17:57,040 --> 00:18:01,000
Speaker 4: that they're gonna win by two, just like a game.

380
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Speaker 1: So for the second straight week, we're guaranteed not to

381
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Speaker 1: go zero and six.

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Speaker 3: So that's there's no hopefully I'm just hoping for no

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Speaker 3: overtime this weekend.

384
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Speaker 1: I'm just hoping for no week this week like this

385
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Speaker 1: is this is just a wild week.

386
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Speaker 1: You know, obviously you're trying to get closing line value,

416
00:19:55,480 --> 00:19:57,639
Speaker 1: but I mean, things could slip it the last second,

417
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Speaker 1: So I would probably wait so Saturday to weigh any thing,

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00:20:01,320 --> 00:20:03,520
Speaker 1: just because you know, they do the final COVID test

419
00:20:03,920 --> 00:20:06,119
Speaker 1: that morning, except for the Saturday games. I think they

420
00:20:06,160 --> 00:20:08,679
Speaker 1: do on Friday. But yeah, you can always get some

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00:20:08,720 --> 00:20:12,800
Speaker 1: surprise news. So of course monitor everything you know. Download

422
00:20:12,800 --> 00:20:15,840
Speaker 1: the Action Network app you can see how the lines

423
00:20:15,840 --> 00:20:18,160
Speaker 1: are moving and all that good stuff and to get

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00:20:18,160 --> 00:20:22,800
Speaker 1: the best line. But to recap for our Sunday six

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Speaker 1: pack with odds from Bett MGM and the six pack

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00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:30,080
Speaker 1: presented by Athletic Brewing Company, we have stuck you going

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00:20:30,119 --> 00:20:33,479
Speaker 1: with the Indianapolis Coats minus two and a half against

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00:20:33,480 --> 00:20:38,040
Speaker 1: the Patriots, the Pittsburgh Steelers plus one against the Titans,

429
00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:42,520
Speaker 1: and the Philadelphia Eagles minus eleven and a half against

430
00:20:42,560 --> 00:20:46,120
Speaker 1: the Washington Football team. I'm going with the Cincinnati Bengals

431
00:20:46,160 --> 00:20:51,560
Speaker 1: plus three against the Denver Broncos, the Patriots plus two

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00:20:51,600 --> 00:20:53,400
Speaker 1: and a half against the Colts, and the Texans plus

433
00:20:53,440 --> 00:20:59,000
Speaker 1: four and a half against the Jaguars. That concludes our

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Speaker 4: Allow