Speaker 1: Police perspective from DC's Top Names. Goodbyden gave it talk
Speaker 1: to this morning, blamed everybody else on inflation. He took
Speaker 1: no responsibility and has no plans. You know you gotta
Speaker 1: be frustrated. Ben tasted frustrated by high pressures by Gridlock
Speaker 1: and Bloomberg found on with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 1: Inflation persists. Welcome to the Fastest hour in politics and
Speaker 1: a conversation with Moody's economist Mark Zandy on this CPI day.
Speaker 1: As political risks build for Democrats, Donald Trump suffers his
Speaker 1: first loss of the cycle. Happened in Nebraska, carried a
Speaker 1: big win Thow in West Virginia. Will hit the campaign
Speaker 1: trail and talk primaries with Jessica Taylor of The Cook
Speaker 1: Political Report. An abortion writes bill just failed in the U. S. Senate.
Speaker 1: We'll have the latest from Capitol Hill and analysis on
Speaker 1: all of these stories from our panel today, Bloomberg Politics contributors,
Speaker 1: Democratic analyst Jeanie Chanzano and Republican strategist Rick Davis with
Speaker 1: us for the hour. But first we start with a
Speaker 1: break here here in Washington. As you've been hearing on
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio, and abortions or an abortion rights bill, I
Speaker 1: should say, blocked in the U. S. Senate as expected.
Speaker 1: The vote came in one every Republican and a single
Speaker 1: Democrat Joe Mansion, voting against the outcome, as I mentioned,
Speaker 1: not a surprise, and we'll have more on this later
Speaker 1: on in this hour with Rick and Genie or Sound
Speaker 1: on panel. The other big story of the day the
Speaker 1: CPI that Charlie just mentioned. Consumer prices up more than
Speaker 1: forecast in April, but a slight cooling year over year
Speaker 1: eight point three percent on an annual basis, still though
Speaker 1: among the highest readings in decades. President Biden spoke to
Speaker 1: this issue at a campaign stopped speaking to farmers and
Speaker 1: farmers families in Illinois. Right now, America is fighting on
Speaker 1: two fronts. At home, it's inflation and rising prices. Abroad,
Speaker 1: it's helping ukrainitys and fender democracy and feeding those were
Speaker 1: left hungry around the world because Russian atrocities exist, and
Speaker 1: Jeff and the American farmers understand putin d war has
Speaker 1: has has cut off critical sources of food. Echoing remarks
Speaker 1: from yesterday on the causes of inflation, this is where
Speaker 1: we begin now with Mark is Andy, the chief economists
Speaker 1: at Moody's Analytics, back with us on Sound On. Mark,
Speaker 1: Welcome back to Bloomberg. It's good to be with you, Joe,
Speaker 1: Thanks for having me. I'm going to start with the
Speaker 1: question you do not want to answer. Has inflation peaked?
Speaker 1: It has? I think we've we've seen the peak. The
Speaker 1: key here, obviously is oil prices coming in, and that
Speaker 1: goes back to the Russian vision of Ukraine, and it
Speaker 1: also goes back to the pandemic and supply chains and
Speaker 1: all that stuff. But yeah, I think the most likely
Speaker 1: scenario is that inflation has peaked and we'll moderate. He'll
Speaker 1: take it, you know, while Joe, to get back to
Speaker 1: something we all feel comfortable with. But I think we're
Speaker 1: on that path. Yes, he didn't even blink at that question. Okay,
Speaker 1: now that we've gone there, I know it's easy to
Speaker 1: ask the out not right, But Mark, how come you
Speaker 1: and other major economists did not see this level of
Speaker 1: inflation come with an eight handle in front of it? Well,
Speaker 1: I'd say it's a pandemic. You know, if you think
Speaker 1: back a year ago UH vaccine rollout, I think the
Speaker 1: view was and it certainly was mine, that we were
Speaker 1: on the other side of the pandemic, and then we
Speaker 1: got nailed pretty soon thereafter by the delta variant, and
Speaker 1: that discrambled global supply chains. That really helps in particular,
Speaker 1: did a lot of damage to Asia where all the
Speaker 1: supply chains begin. And so the real surprise was the
Speaker 1: pandemic and that really caused shortages and you know, obviously
Speaker 1: a higher inflation. And then the Russian invasion. You know,
Speaker 1: I didn't. I wasn't in my crystal ball, unfortunately, and
Speaker 1: you know that caused oil prices and commanded places go
Speaker 1: skyward and exacerbated the inflation, raised inflation expectations. So it
Speaker 1: goes back to these massive supply side shocks, the pandemic
Speaker 1: and the invasion, and they're very unpredictable, and obviously I
Speaker 1: didn't predict them. So we're delving into the real debate
Speaker 1: that's going on in Washington between really it's between the
Speaker 1: Crafts and Republicans. It's a party line debate about the
Speaker 1: causes of inflation. The President said yesterday very clearly as
Speaker 1: he addressed the nation, it's two things, the pandemic the war.
Speaker 1: Essentially what you just said, Republicans say, the Democrats poured
Speaker 1: gas on the fire by sending those checks to everyone
Speaker 1: during the COVID recovery, the stimulus money. Who's right here, Mark,
Speaker 1: And does the answer change the solution? I think it's
Speaker 1: mostly the President. I mean, I do think the American
Speaker 1: Rescue Plan, the big package of support that was passed
Speaker 1: last March that did support demand, used to the demand
Speaker 1: and also caused inflation to accelerate back a year ago.
Speaker 1: But I you know, if you remember back at that point,
Speaker 1: that was that was a feature, not a bug. We
Speaker 1: wanted inflation to be high because it had been painfully
Speaker 1: low since the financial crisis, and the Federal Reserve and
Speaker 1: other central banks had been working really hard to get
Speaker 1: inflation up. So here we were an inflation was back
Speaker 1: to something I think people felt pretty good about. But
Speaker 1: the inflation, the bad inflation, the painfully high inflation, and
Speaker 1: right now is that is the pandemic. That is, the
Speaker 1: Russian invasion has nothing to do but in any material
Speaker 1: way with the increasing demand related to the American resky playing.
Speaker 1: In fact, demand if you look at it, demand has
Speaker 1: essentially gone flat, you know, for good over the last year.
Speaker 1: It hasn't hasn't moved one bit in over a year.
Speaker 1: So it's not at this point, it's not demand, it's
Speaker 1: it's supplied. The supply shocks and it does matter because
Speaker 1: that goes to you know, potentially, you know how we
Speaker 1: think about inflation, the forecast for inflation going forward, and
Speaker 1: you know what what can be done about trying to
Speaker 1: bring inflation down going forward. So it was the only
Speaker 1: way to fix that with the sledge hammer, with just
Speaker 1: continuously raising interest rates until people stop. Well, I mean,
Speaker 1: I think you know, if plason is going to moderate,
Speaker 1: we gotta got on the other side of the pandemic
Speaker 1: and and we supply chains has to hron themselves out
Speaker 1: and hopefully the worst of the fallout from the Rascian
Speaker 1: invasions on on the economy, on oil prices and natural
Speaker 1: gas and other command persons is behind us. That's the case.
Speaker 1: We're gonna We're gonna see inflation monory. That goes back
Speaker 1: to your first question. Why I was so definitive. I
Speaker 1: think that's likely to happen now. The Center of Reserve
Speaker 1: also has a role here, and that is because the
Speaker 1: economy is strong and coming into full employment, that they
Speaker 1: need to slow growth so that we don't blow past
Speaker 1: full employment and create more wage pressures and price pressures.
Speaker 1: That's that'd be particularly problematic at this point given us
Speaker 1: going on with inflation. So that does have a role here.
Speaker 1: But at the end of the day, the key that's
Speaker 1: you know, you know, no one likes this answer, but
Speaker 1: you know, we need a little bit of luck. We
Speaker 1: gotta get on the other side of the pandemic, and
Speaker 1: we've gotta you know, hopefully Russian vision of Ukraine uh
Speaker 1: phades away as an economic issue. I believe Janet Yellen
Speaker 1: used that word luck when she was asked about the
Speaker 1: chances for a soft landing. She said, yeah, it takes
Speaker 1: skill and a little bit of luck. So where are
Speaker 1: you on this idea of recession being inevitable. I don't
Speaker 1: think it's inevitable. I think, you know, obviously the recession
Speaker 1: risks are awfully high here, uncomfortably higher in the horizon.
Speaker 1: Uh you know, I pressed, I'd say there's probably one
Speaker 1: of the third probability one recession the next twelve months,
Speaker 1: and plust probably close to even odds over the next
Speaker 1: next couple of years. But I don't think it's inevitable,
Speaker 1: you know. I do think if we get to catch
Speaker 1: a break on the pandemic and the Russian invasion. Uh,
Speaker 1: and the said, you know, kind of sticks to script here,
Speaker 1: doesn't need to push on the brakes any harder. We
Speaker 1: should be able to navigate through. But it's gonna Yeah,
Speaker 1: I think she said, uh, you know that sound like
Speaker 1: she said it. Well, it's take some death policymaking on
Speaker 1: the best part and a bit of law. Speaking of demands,
Speaker 1: a lot of the inflation driven by COVID came from
Speaker 1: the shift in demand from services to goods. Now that
Speaker 1: we're seeing prices for services rise today. I think it
Speaker 1: was an eighteen percent jump in airfares for instance. Is
Speaker 1: that rotation back to services underway? How long will that take? Yeah?
Speaker 1: It is. You know, good mentioned goods demand has gone
Speaker 1: flat for the past year, but we have seen service
Speaker 1: side of the economy can start to come back. That's
Speaker 1: travel and going to ball games and restaurants, that kind
Speaker 1: of thing. I think the inflation that we're reserving on
Speaker 1: the service side of the economy that you mentioned the
Speaker 1: air fairs poster child for that, that goes back to
Speaker 1: oil prices, right, that goes back to the surge. I
Speaker 1: mean energy prices are up by a third, you know
Speaker 1: over the you know, over the last year, and it's
Speaker 1: not like what we pay at the gas pump. It's
Speaker 1: the diesel prices that you know, feed into food prices
Speaker 1: and the you know, the cost of the things that
Speaker 1: they're delivered to our door by Amazon or then it
Speaker 1: you know, it also goes to the air farers that
Speaker 1: airlines have to charge the higher fair just compensate for
Speaker 1: their higher GA jet fuel costs. Hopefully that move gives
Speaker 1: the ports a chance to breathe if all of these
Speaker 1: boxes and containers aren't stacking up with every time we
Speaker 1: click to buy something on Amazon. Yeah, exactly, and I
Speaker 1: think it will. But you know, the problem right now,
Speaker 1: obviously with the guarding the pandemic is China, and the
Speaker 1: China is grappling with the Acron variant and their their
Speaker 1: strategy for handling it's very different than you know, so
Speaker 1: the parts that were including here have these very severe
Speaker 1: shutdowns that are affecting big parts of the economy. So
Speaker 1: that's disrupting supply chains again, and you know, it's going
Speaker 1: to exacerbate the inflationary pressure. But hopefully you know, they
Speaker 1: get this under control in the next month or two
Speaker 1: and supply chains continue to normalize. I will say the
Speaker 1: worst of the supply chains constructions are behind us. That
Speaker 1: you know, the worst of it hard to remember, but
Speaker 1: you can go back to last fall when delta hit
Speaker 1: back in August, September, October by most measures, you know,
Speaker 1: freight rates and what purchasing managers are saying, and you
Speaker 1: know those kinds of things. That it was much worse
Speaker 1: back than the now. But you know, certainly we need
Speaker 1: you can see continued improvement here. Mark Sandy, you supported
Speaker 1: the President's infrastructure law and helped to make the case
Speaker 1: for Build Back Better. The President's back out yesterday today
Speaker 1: calling on Congress to again pass some of the components
Speaker 1: from Build Back Better and expanded child tax credit, new
Speaker 1: plan for prescription drugs. They've at a pretty long list
Speaker 1: of things. Would those actually, to his point, help inflation
Speaker 1: or make it worse? I think mostly help. I mean,
Speaker 1: you know you mentioned a few good policies. I I
Speaker 1: throw in the next the policies in Build Back Better
Speaker 1: than related to housing. I mean one of the key
Speaker 1: contributors to inflation, and this is going to continue going
Speaker 1: forward is rent You know that you know rents are
Speaker 1: you know, if you look at housing is a third
Speaker 1: of the consumer Price index. And we've got a very
Speaker 1: severe shortage of homes, particularly homes, suffordable homes, both rental
Speaker 1: and for ownership. And with mortgage rates higher, you know,
Speaker 1: it's even more problematic. So I do think that we
Speaker 1: need more homes get built, and I think policymakers could
Speaker 1: really help here. You know, for example, in the Buildback Better,
Speaker 1: just one thing, I'll call out low income housing tax
Speaker 1: credits that you know, very tried in trough program works
Speaker 1: really well. Just let's just juice that up and get
Speaker 1: more rental housing out there for low income households, you know,
Speaker 1: and that would help the economy a year from now.
Speaker 1: So there's a lot of things and Build Back Better, um,
Speaker 1: you know, some some are more helpful than others when
Speaker 1: it comes to inflation, but when it comes to housing,
Speaker 1: I think that's definitely we should we should tackle that.
Speaker 1: And you know, I think there could be bipartisan support
Speaker 1: there right because we're talking about tax breaks. I think
Speaker 1: we have a lot of people like that that post
Speaker 1: on the Republican and Democratics site. That would be news.
Speaker 1: Mark Sandy, chief economist Booties Analytics, always great to spend
Speaker 1: some time with you appreciate the insights today on Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: Thanks Joe, thanks for the opportunity. Absolutely so. Mark says
Speaker 1: inflation is peaked, but if it takes months or years
Speaker 1: to come back in what does that leave for Democrats
Speaker 1: on the campaign trail? Coming up, we assemble the panel
Speaker 1: with Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick Davis and Genie Chanzano. They
Speaker 1: weigh in on this and we'll check traffic and markets
Speaker 1: for you on the way. You picked the Fastest Hour
Speaker 1: in Politics. Welcome to Sound On. I'm Joe Matthew. This
Speaker 1: is Bloomberg. You're listening to Bloomberg. You sound On with
Speaker 1: Joe Matthew on Bird Radio. Go figure. It's adults without
Speaker 1: kids watching the Star Wars and Marvel movies. I see
Speaker 1: you eighties bros. Welcome to the Fastest Hour in Politics.
Speaker 1: We've got a statement from the White House on this
Speaker 1: abortion vote. As expected, the bill failed. While this legislation
Speaker 1: did not pass today, the President writes, my administration will
Speaker 1: not stop fighting to protect access to women's reproductive care.
Speaker 1: As I mentioned, though, he was out talking about inflation
Speaker 1: once again today, following on yesterday's speech that we've talked
Speaker 1: about at length. His plan versus the ultra Maga plan.
Speaker 1: He was speaking to farmers today and UH producers out
Speaker 1: in Illinois, food producers in Illinois, and he hit a
Speaker 1: lot of the same themes as we just discussed with
Speaker 1: Mark Zandy. He says, it's it's two wars were fighting,
Speaker 1: the one in Ukraine and the one here against inflation.
Speaker 1: As we assemble the panel with Rick and Genie Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Politics contributors Jeanie Schanzano and Rick Davis. Uh, Genie, this
Speaker 1: story is not getting easier. And when you look under
Speaker 1: the hood of this report and start thinking about, okay,
Speaker 1: so maybe it has peaked. That's a great headline. But
Speaker 1: what if it does take months or years for this
Speaker 1: to come in, you can write off November. It might
Speaker 1: even be bumping up against the elections in This is
Speaker 1: not going away anytime soon. It's not. I mean, you
Speaker 1: know a bit of good news in your interview with
Speaker 1: Mark Zandy when he said you know it has peaked
Speaker 1: and it will moderate, I mean that is music to
Speaker 1: the White House's ears. You look at what the President's
Speaker 1: written statement after these numbers came out today and he said,
Speaker 1: you know, it's hurtening that inflation has moderated in April,
Speaker 1: but it's unacceptably high, and I think that is the
Speaker 1: right tone. They are being very very careful not to
Speaker 1: celebrate at this point. The last thing they want to
Speaker 1: do is what they did with COVID, as we all
Speaker 1: remember that, we put this behind us and then it
Speaker 1: slams on once again. So they're being extra cautious. And
Speaker 1: he's out today, as you mentioned this farm in Illinois,
Speaker 1: He's trying to do what he promised to do yesterday,
Speaker 1: which does show people. He's getting out on the road.
Speaker 1: He's feeling their pain and he's trying to tie it
Speaker 1: as you were talking about against what Republicans are saying
Speaker 1: to the pandemic and to the war. He's saying, this
Speaker 1: is why we are here, and this is the pain
Speaker 1: you're feeling. It's not because of the American rescue plan.
Speaker 1: But Rick, this is Bloomberg, right. Jeanie works in academia,
Speaker 1: you're in politics. Were surrounded by incredibly smart people who
Speaker 1: understand the markets and economics, and we talk about this
Speaker 1: stuff every day and bang our heads together. But people
Speaker 1: aren't cutting this down into well, it was the pandemic
Speaker 1: and then the war. Inflation. Of course, the stimulus money
Speaker 1: that that put gas on the fire. I mean, these
Speaker 1: conversations that we have are not happening in households across
Speaker 1: the country. There's just a guy in the White House,
Speaker 1: and you can blame him. Isn't it as simple as that,
Speaker 1: you know, I think it's some combination of those two things.
Speaker 1: I think it's it's too simplistic to think that the
Speaker 1: guy in the White House, regardless of who it is,
Speaker 1: is going to get the blame for I mean, a
Speaker 1: lot of presidents win uh second terms. They generally don't
Speaker 1: do well in the mid terms, and so in a
Speaker 1: microcos I'm sure it's always the president to blame, and
Speaker 1: no one has had a good first quarter of their presidency.
Speaker 1: But um, I think this is actually pretty unique. I
Speaker 1: I think that this is one of the hardest to
Speaker 1: predict macroeconomic times of our lives. And and some of
Speaker 1: it what Mark Zany said, which is, you know you've
Speaker 1: got inflation, COVID fatigue, supply chain problems. I mean a
Speaker 1: lot of things happening, and really since August of last year, right,
Speaker 1: I mean like that's when the slide could started, for
Speaker 1: for Joe Biden, and so there's a lot going on
Speaker 1: in a very short period of time. I think that
Speaker 1: some consumers get that right. They can't get the things
Speaker 1: they want. The things they want are more expensive. People
Speaker 1: are spending a hundred dollars more a month on gas
Speaker 1: and they used to. I must say that that's pretty
Speaker 1: extraordinary number to see coming out of this inflation number.
Speaker 1: So so is it then a waste of time to
Speaker 1: be delineating the causes here as opposed to just talking
Speaker 1: about solutions. I think every minute that this administration, Joe
Speaker 1: Biden's White House spends trying to define why people feel
Speaker 1: bad instead of giving them reasons why that they can
Speaker 1: fix these problems and that they should feel confident in
Speaker 1: the future, they are making a mistake. I mean they
Speaker 1: are trying to They're trying to rewrite history instead of
Speaker 1: make history. And that is a huge failing of many
Speaker 1: administrations and one that you can see coming with this one. Wow,
Speaker 1: is the travel a good idea? Jed does he need
Speaker 1: to stay on the road. I think the travel is important. Listen,
Speaker 1: his hands are tied to a certain extend in terms
Speaker 1: of what he can do. That's why yesterday his announcement,
Speaker 1: people kept saying there was not a lot they're new
Speaker 1: to see. And you know, you look at the staggering
Speaker 1: report today. Somebody was listing for me at all of
Speaker 1: the things that are more expensive chicken, coffee, sheltered gas prices, health,
Speaker 1: I mean, the list goes on, you know, almost by
Speaker 1: any measure, who ever you are in the United States,
Speaker 1: to Rick's point, you are paying more. And this is
Speaker 1: a confounding problem. I mean, you look at you know,
Speaker 1: poor Jimmy Carter. He probably did what he could in
Speaker 1: getting Paul Volker in there. He took the pain, and
Speaker 1: yet Ronald Reagan was able to come in and say
Speaker 1: are you better off than you were four years ago?
Speaker 1: And the answer was no. That is the difficulty for
Speaker 1: Biden and for the Democrats right now. He's got to
Speaker 1: stay on the road because quite frankly, there's not much
Speaker 1: that else he could do except say I'm here, I
Speaker 1: see that, this is where you are. You're in pain.
Speaker 1: I'm doing everything I can. Stay with us because the
Speaker 1: other guys are worse. I mean, that's the message. That
Speaker 1: that is the message right now. Rick, you pointed out
Speaker 1: the first quarter of any president's term can be a
Speaker 1: tough one. The first quarter of this year, for people's
Speaker 1: four oh one case was a very ugly one. How
Speaker 1: much of that factors in? At the vallot box? I
Speaker 1: hate to say I learned a very hard lesson on
Speaker 1: how people read there their four oh one case and
Speaker 1: then translate that to the ballot. September six, two thousand eight,
Speaker 1: you know, when the markets crashed globally and people got
Speaker 1: their first quarter October actually last quarter of statements, we
Speaker 1: saw a huge drop in votes for Republicans across the board.
Speaker 1: How about that? Well, again, history repeats itself. It's a
Speaker 1: different letter after the name. Rick and Jr. With us
Speaker 1: for the hour, our signature sound on panel as we
Speaker 1: turned to primaries next, when we joined by Jessica Taylor
Speaker 1: from the Cook Political Report. This is Bloomberg broadcasting live
Speaker 1: from our nation's capital, Bloomberg to New York, Bloomberg eleven
Speaker 1: Trio to Boston, Bloomberg one O six one to San Francisco,
Speaker 1: Bloomberg nine sixty to the country Serious x M Gennel
Speaker 1: one nine and around the globe, the Bloomberg Business app
Speaker 1: and Bloomberg Radio dot Com. This is Bloomberg Sound On
Speaker 1: with Joe Matthew. People woke up to the headline today
Speaker 1: that Donald Trump lost his first race of the cycle.
Speaker 1: Is the brand tarnish what happened in Nebraska. We'll take
Speaker 1: a look at West Virginia and you might think differently.
Speaker 1: We need a little context here. We'll talk about the
Speaker 1: gubernatorial primary in Nebraska and the congressional race incumbent versus
Speaker 1: incumbent in West Virginia, which turns out to be a
Speaker 1: massive win for Trump. Pro Trump election deniers lose in
Speaker 1: Nebraska Republican primaries. Indeed, that was the big headline late
Speaker 1: last night or early this morning for a lot of Americans.
Speaker 1: Charles Herbster lost. That means Trump lost. So what about
Speaker 1: this campaign season? Well, it was a pretty darn good
Speaker 1: night for him in West Virginia. Donald Trump loves West Virginia,
Speaker 1: and West Virginia loves Donald Trumpy. Good night for Alex Mooney.
Speaker 1: Representative Mooney, remembering this was an incumbent on incumbent, they
Speaker 1: lost districts in West Virginia, wrote the Trump endorsement of
Speaker 1: victory over fellow Representative David McKinley, who had the backing,
Speaker 1: as we told you yesterday and spent some time talking
Speaker 1: about this, the backing of Joe Managin, a Democrat actually
Speaker 1: getting involved in the Republican primary and still lost by
Speaker 1: a lot. It's like an eighteen points spread. So was
Speaker 1: it a good or bad night? Was it a mixed night?
Speaker 1: Let's bring in Jessica Taylor, the Senate and Governor's editor
Speaker 1: for the Great Cook Political Report. Jessica, I've been looking
Speaker 1: forward to our conversation. The Trump brand lives on and
Speaker 1: to go into Pennsylvania next week. How's he doing well?
Speaker 1: He got his first loss last night, as you mentioned,
Speaker 1: but ultimately what he what we're seeing in these primaries
Speaker 1: across the state. You know, even in Ohio last week
Speaker 1: when his candidate won j d Vance. The primaries are
Speaker 1: all about trying to be the trump eyist, even if
Speaker 1: you are not the Trump candidate typically, so just the
Speaker 1: fact that he's driving so much of the conversation in
Speaker 1: the primaries just shows you how big his influences. And
Speaker 1: in that governor's race there open governor's race and Nebraska,
Speaker 1: the termline governor Pete Ricketts had endorsed uh Jim Pillon,
Speaker 1: who was on the University of Nebraska Board of Regents,
Speaker 1: versus Trump's candidate Charles Herbster, who was a rancher and
Speaker 1: business owner, and so you know Pillans got or the
Speaker 1: Rickets candidate one out there. But there's some extenuating circumstances
Speaker 1: in the final felace of the campaign. These are the allegations, right,
Speaker 1: sexual assault allegations. So this is why a lot of
Speaker 1: Trump supporters are saying, well, listen, I mean, you know
Speaker 1: that's not a Trump loss. He did it to himself
Speaker 1: and he didn't lose by all that much. Is that fair, Jessica. Again,
Speaker 1: it's a three way race, so you really had I
Speaker 1: think if there was another candidate in the race, the
Speaker 1: state legislator Dave Lundstrom that behind had some momentum later on,
Speaker 1: but you know, with his close as it was, could
Speaker 1: just a couple of people have pulled away from that
Speaker 1: because of those allegations. I mean, Trump obviously had allegations
Speaker 1: against him too, So um, I think not to a
Speaker 1: candidate that's not Trump, it's not as you know, you're
Speaker 1: not as teflon with those types of things. So in
Speaker 1: a close race, couldn't have mattered. A lot of people
Speaker 1: I talked to in Nebraska thought, so talk to us
Speaker 1: about West Virginia. It was a pretty convincing win. My goodness,
Speaker 1: uh an eighteen points spread here for Alex Mooney. In
Speaker 1: what was almost a retribution endorsement, Donald Trump decided he
Speaker 1: did not like David McKinley because of a couple of
Speaker 1: votes he voted for infrastructure and the jan six Commission,
Speaker 1: and suddenly your career's over. Yeah, I mean, and the
Speaker 1: ironic thing is, listen, we always knew that someone in
Speaker 1: West Virginia was going to have to lose when they
Speaker 1: lost a congressional seat. But the way that the district
Speaker 1: was redrawn, McKinley actually represented more of the new district
Speaker 1: geographically than Trump's candidate one Alex Mooney. Typically we see
Speaker 1: that whoever has represented the district more of the district
Speaker 1: in this and when they're redrawn that they have an edge.
Speaker 1: But it is Trump's came in bashed him. Um a
Speaker 1: lot of money spent on this race to still and
Speaker 1: I think, you know, ultimately it was what type of
Speaker 1: Republican do you want in there? Because it's not like
Speaker 1: David McKinley was, you know, a very liberal Republican by
Speaker 1: any means. It's just that he had voted you know,
Speaker 1: against Trump on some of these issues, which I mean,
Speaker 1: the infrastructure bill is one that has become a litmus
Speaker 1: test when, of course Trump was pushing for infrastructure when
Speaker 1: he was in the Whitehouse, and a weekly joke because
Speaker 1: they try to turn each weekend infrastructure. Something UM would
Speaker 1: have would happen that would knock it off the name
Speaker 1: West Virginia need a lot of money. I mean, this
Speaker 1: was supposed to be good. Joe Mansion, of course helped
Speaker 1: to write it. What does this mean for Joe mansion
Speaker 1: stature in the state. Listen, I mean, I think he's
Speaker 1: someone that's still respected. Um. He still has high approval
Speaker 1: ratings in the state. He will be up in four
Speaker 1: We'll see what he decides to do when when that
Speaker 1: is up. UM. But I mean Joe Manson ultimately, he's
Speaker 1: He's not a Republican though too, so I'm not sure
Speaker 1: how much that swayed some people, even though they may
Speaker 1: like Mansion. Um. Ultimately, he has been a Democrat, albeit
Speaker 1: one that has want plenty of crossover votes when he's
Speaker 1: been governor and senator. So I think it's just shows that,
Speaker 1: you know, again, Trump's endorsement carries a lot of weight
Speaker 1: in these congressional primaries, UM, because I think they're smaller too,
Speaker 1: but you know, in the larger races, this was a
Speaker 1: one on one race essentially in the larger races where
Speaker 1: multi candidate field sometimes that isn't always, uh, you know,
Speaker 1: sort of the bolt of lightning. Jessica Taylor at the
Speaker 1: Cook Political Report, I appreciate your insights today. Thanks for
Speaker 1: walking us through these two Nebraska, West Virginia. We're moving
Speaker 1: on to another big one next Tuesday. I'd love to
Speaker 1: get Rick Davis in here real quick, just as the
Speaker 1: as the Republican of course on our sound on panel.
Speaker 1: We talked about it last night. Rick, what does this
Speaker 1: say about Joe Mansion? Just I mean, there were trouts,
Speaker 1: it was almost a twenty point loss. Yeah, I think
Speaker 1: Jessica had it right. I mean, look, the Republican governor
Speaker 1: was wrong on this one too, and uh, I would
Speaker 1: say he probably bears more of scrutiny Jim Justice than
Speaker 1: than Joe Mansion because Joe is not a Republican, right,
Speaker 1: I mean, and like he weighed in thinking, hey, I'm
Speaker 1: gonna if I can help tip the scales, I'm happy
Speaker 1: to do it. But at the end of the day,
Speaker 1: I'm not a Republican. So how much of this is
Speaker 1: gonna blow back on me. I'm not worried about it.
Speaker 1: It's not like he is going to be competing against uh,
Speaker 1: you know, Donald Trump anytime soon in West Virginia. Right, So, uh,
Speaker 1: it was really a no lose situation for him. He
Speaker 1: could he could try to tip the scales. And the
Speaker 1: fact that he didn't, Yeah, he goes on with business
Speaker 1: and votes again. See abortion laws that Chuck Humor wants
Speaker 1: you to. We're going to reassemble the panel next and
Speaker 1: talk about that. We knew what was gonna fail. It
Speaker 1: has happened abortion rights in the U. S. Senate. Rick
Speaker 1: and Jennie are back in next. This is sound on,
Speaker 1: this is bloombird. It's time to go on record. I
Speaker 1: asked my colleagues to think carefully about their vote and
Speaker 1: to reckon deeply about the consequences of a world where
Speaker 1: row is a thing of the past. Democrats are melting
Speaker 1: down because of rame. Court may may uphold a Mississippi
Speaker 1: law that would limit abortion after fifteen weeks. This proposed
Speaker 1: legislation is an example of extreme extremism. It is an
Speaker 1: outrage that we have five justices on the Supreme Court
Speaker 1: who lied, lied in their confirmation hearing in order to
Speaker 1: be confirmed, let that sink in America. A national ban
Speaker 1: on abortion is the extreme of extremes that Madam President
Speaker 1: is blowning. This is a cruel, repressive, dangerous vision for
Speaker 1: our country. Women's Health Protection Act is an extreme piece
Speaker 1: of legislation. On this vote the a's of forty nine,
Speaker 1: then they's are fifty one three five of the senators
Speaker 1: duly chosen and sworn not having voted in the affirmative
Speaker 1: the motion has not agreed to. Accidentally, forty two years
Speaker 1: of the day after Henry hills last day as a
Speaker 1: wise guy, somehow appropriate as we jump into the fire
Speaker 1: with the panel Bloomberg Politics contributors Genie Chanzano and Rick Davis,
Speaker 1: Genie had happened. We knew it was going to happen,
Speaker 1: but to see this with Kamala Harris presiding over the
Speaker 1: Senate still hits home for a lot of voters. How
Speaker 1: important was it to get Republicans and Joe Mansion today
Speaker 1: on the record. You know, I think it is important.
Speaker 1: We knew it was not going to pass. Joe Manson
Speaker 1: said he wasn't going to vote for it um, but
Speaker 1: they the Democrats went forward with this because they do
Speaker 1: want Republicans to have to go to the map and
Speaker 1: say this. And you do see some nervousness on the
Speaker 1: Republican side because they are really concerned that by standing
Speaker 1: against abortions of all kinds that you know, under without exception,
Speaker 1: that they will you know, essentially uh, push over some
Speaker 1: independence to the Democratic side potentially in some of these
Speaker 1: close races. That's really the fear, and that's what Democrats
Speaker 1: are hoping to do. There is logic to the question
Speaker 1: of should Democrats have worked harder to get Mansion, you know,
Speaker 1: Murkowski and Collins on board and tried to move forward
Speaker 1: in that direction, But but they did want to take
Speaker 1: this vote, and now they've got them on the record,
Speaker 1: and they're going to move forward with this. To be
Speaker 1: on the record, Rick could be a good thing for
Speaker 1: a lot of Republicans. Does this help Republicans in the
Speaker 1: Senate on the campaign trail to say I stood up
Speaker 1: to protect life? Sure, I think everybody gets something out
Speaker 1: of today. They Republicans are going to say that they
Speaker 1: defended life in the well of the Senate against an
Speaker 1: effort by um the Democrats to um overturn um um.
Speaker 1: A lot of these laws that are on the books
Speaker 1: in states trigger laws that may go into effect if
Speaker 1: the Supreme Court rolls back Row. So, Um, absolutely, there's
Speaker 1: gonna be a much talked about topic through the course
Speaker 1: of the mid terms, really overshadowing a lot of the
Speaker 1: other cultural issues that have been dominant at this point.
Speaker 1: And Republicans are happy to bring this up again if
Speaker 1: the Democrats want to take another vote, well, and I six,
Speaker 1: I suspect they will, Genie, the President and Democratic leadership
Speaker 1: on Capitol Hill Chuck Schumer have promised to do that.
Speaker 1: The statement from the President today, we will continue to
Speaker 1: defend women's constitutional rights to make private reproductive choices, as
Speaker 1: recognized in Roe v. Wade nearly half a century ago.
Speaker 1: And he adds, my administration will continue to explore the
Speaker 1: measures and tools at our disposal to do just that.
Speaker 1: What's he's talking about, Genie, Are there any more tools? Um?
Speaker 1: You know, the tools are that they could keep talking
Speaker 1: about this and put pressure on Republicans to voice where
Speaker 1: they are on this. You know, if you just step back,
Speaker 1: Americans have had this right for over fifty years. If
Speaker 1: it is indeed pulled back, this is going to push
Speaker 1: much of this discussion to the state level, these gubernatorial races,
Speaker 1: the a G races at the state level, that's where
Speaker 1: these decisions will be made. And Democrats are hoping from
Speaker 1: a political perspective that if these are close races and
Speaker 1: purple districts and purple states, that this will move suburban women,
Speaker 1: young men, young women over to their side. And it's
Speaker 1: not just about abortion, remember, because the underlying argument is
Speaker 1: about privacy as a whole, and that impacts everything come
Speaker 1: contraception to l g B t Q rights. It is
Speaker 1: a huge area and Americans don't take kindly of any
Speaker 1: swath of having rights taken away from them. Is that
Speaker 1: a wise angle for Democrats here? Rick to say, Look,
Speaker 1: if you can do this, you can undo everything, like
Speaker 1: Jennie just mentioned, from same sex marriage, even inter racial marriage,
Speaker 1: which is kind of a wacky idea at this point
Speaker 1: with Clarence Thomas on the court, But that is what
Speaker 1: we're hearing from Chuck Schumer and from Joe Biden. Yeah.
Speaker 1: I think that what I read mostly about Democrat strategy
Speaker 1: around this is that the fear is actually overreaching, right
Speaker 1: is to rather than having a narrow cast message around
Speaker 1: what's happening on this issue in the in the Supreme
Speaker 1: Court right now is that they're gonna throw this big
Speaker 1: wide net over all this and try and create this
Speaker 1: sort of sense that everything is falling apart. And and
Speaker 1: I don't know, I mean, I I can't imagine in
Speaker 1: the environment we have, with all the challenges we have,
Speaker 1: that that message is going to penetrate versus one that
Speaker 1: is very narrow cast and specific to what the Supreme
Speaker 1: Court may do in the summer around Row, I would say, Toy,
Speaker 1: they need to find some messengers because the President United
Speaker 1: States is not a credible messenger right now to the
Speaker 1: American people. He's failed too many times. H Pelosi and Schumer,
Speaker 1: can't you know, their their popularity is less than the president.
Speaker 1: Uh and and and so they're going to have to
Speaker 1: find people who can stand up and say here's what
Speaker 1: this means for America who have credibility with voters, especially
Speaker 1: like Jeannie said, those very important independent voters who will
Speaker 1: be skeptical about this broader message. And and and that's
Speaker 1: a hard sell right now. What do you make of
Speaker 1: that statement that Rick just made jan Joe Biden is
Speaker 1: not a credible messenger because he's lost too many times.
Speaker 1: You know, I think Joe Biden does have a challenge
Speaker 1: when it comes to speaking about some abortions, specifically because
Speaker 1: it's something he stayed away from given his catholic as
Speaker 1: a Catholic, given his commitment to That's not what Rick meant.
Speaker 1: But I do think that what with Levi, I do
Speaker 1: think that that is also something that can help him
Speaker 1: as he goes out to talk about this because it
Speaker 1: is not again just about abortion. Abortion is enough, don't
Speaker 1: get me wrong, but it is about privacy as a whole.
Speaker 1: Let's remember the governor of Mississippi could not say that
Speaker 1: they wouldn't take away the right to contraception. This is
Speaker 1: a Republican party, if you follow the Democrats, that wants
Speaker 1: into people's bedrooms. That is not something that either resonates
Speaker 1: with many Americans. Is what the Republican Party stands for.
Speaker 1: They are supposed to be the party that wants less government. Yes,
Speaker 1: they want less government in the economy, but no, they
Speaker 1: want more in the bedroom. That is the message that
Speaker 1: they're going to be talking about. And I don't think
Speaker 1: Joe Biden is the only person who should talk about
Speaker 1: but I think he can talk about it pretty cogently
Speaker 1: because again, he like many Americans has very ambivalent views
Speaker 1: on abortion, but he also knows we have a right
Speaker 1: to make decisions in the bedroom and about our bodies.
Speaker 1: What's the answer to that, Rick, I don't know. The
Speaker 1: only Republican I remember who got into the bedroom on
Speaker 1: an issue like this was the late Bob Dole, who
Speaker 1: did the first e D commercial and that was right
Speaker 1: in your bedroom. So I'm not sure I'm gonna be
Speaker 1: satisfied with the discussion about like Republicans want to get
Speaker 1: into everybody's bedroom like Bob Dole did. But uh, the
Speaker 1: reality is that these are long term, staked out positions, right,
Speaker 1: nothing has changed, and its debate primarily other than um,
Speaker 1: you know, by mail abortion pills, right, which is going
Speaker 1: to add a layer of of complexity to this debate.
Speaker 1: But but everyone's been making the same argument for this,
Speaker 1: you know, since Roe was decided, and in the American
Speaker 1: public has sort of frozen in place on on its
Speaker 1: own views. And so let's vote right. I mean, like,
Speaker 1: you know, if the Spreme Court is gonna do what
Speaker 1: they're gonna do, there's very little anybody all these protesters
Speaker 1: and all these debates and all these votes are not
Speaker 1: going to really change dramatically. I don't think what the
Speaker 1: Spreme Court is gonna do. So let's find out what
Speaker 1: the Supreme Court is gonna do, and then let's vote,
Speaker 1: and let's see how American voters are going to handle this.
Speaker 1: Because that's it. There's no news here other than the
Speaker 1: fact that it's a hot, hotter topic because of what
Speaker 1: the Supreme Court is doing. And it remains an open
Speaker 1: question GENI about whether this will play out in the
Speaker 1: polls in November. I suspect there will be uh inevitably
Speaker 1: an impact. It's just a question of whether this actually
Speaker 1: changes votes enough to change outcomes in elections here. Based
Speaker 1: on the primary candidates that we're seeing so far, it's
Speaker 1: going to be a fight. When should the march on
Speaker 1: Washington happened? Jeannie? What kind of we're talking about messengers?
Speaker 1: To Rick's point, who needs to stand up to start
Speaker 1: making noise more than the White House can do? You know,
Speaker 1: I think it has to be UM, young people in
Speaker 1: particular UM who are concerned about the future of their
Speaker 1: ability to make decisions for their bodies and Hollywood on
Speaker 1: this doesn't The Democratic Party needs celebrity messaging. And I'm
Speaker 1: being serious. Yeah, you know, I'm not a big fan
Speaker 1: of that. I think it's fine if people have views
Speaker 1: and they go out and stake them out, but I
Speaker 1: wouldn't rather hear from young women who in Texas and
Speaker 1: elsewhere have have their rights taken away and to talk
Speaker 1: about what that has meant to them, because what an
Speaker 1: individual goes through under those circumstances is is traumatic and
Speaker 1: it is something worth talking about. And you know, again,
Speaker 1: Americans have very ambivalent views on this, and Democrats have
Speaker 1: to be careful about overreach. They should not overreach on this.
Speaker 1: They should talk about it, but they also have to
Speaker 1: have an economic message because nothing surpasses that the Rick
Speaker 1: who raises more money on this Democrats are Republicans. You know,
Speaker 1: everybody's been raising money on this since since it's a
Speaker 1: windfall for originally decided yes, it's been a windfall. Uh. Look, Uh,
Speaker 1: it always is easier to raise money out of fear
Speaker 1: than it is out of confidence, and so the fact
Speaker 1: that the Democrats are really in the fear side of
Speaker 1: this equation for what may happen advantage Democrats. He knows.
Speaker 1: That's Rick Davis, along with Jeannie Chanzano our signature panel
Speaker 1: on sound On Thanks to everyone for popping in today
Speaker 1: in the fastest hour in politics. I'm Joe Matthew. This
Speaker 1: is Bloomberg.