WEBVTT - Surveillance: Recession Not Likely, Says Emanuel

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Along

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<v Speaker 1>with Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa Abramowitz Jay Ley, we bring

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<v Speaker 1>you insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and

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<v Speaker 1>international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg terminal. Shimbus

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<v Speaker 1>with his chief equity and quantitative strategist of a coras I, Jennie,

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<v Speaker 1>and you call this the gray zone. One of that's

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<v Speaker 1>just the gray zone. The gray zone is. Look, we

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<v Speaker 1>had a reasonably epic bear market from January to June

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<v Speaker 1>that was not only the epitome of don't fight the Fed,

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<v Speaker 1>but the markets took the hawkish narrative and ran with

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<v Speaker 1>it in an unprecedented way, causing you know, if you

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<v Speaker 1>look at the stock bond quadrant, uh, you know, the

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<v Speaker 1>biggest losses in the combined sixty forty portfolio we've seen

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<v Speaker 1>in years. And then it all turned in June and

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<v Speaker 1>into a few weeks ago. Uh. And now we're at

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<v Speaker 1>a point where do we go back to the don't

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<v Speaker 1>fight the Fed mantra or do we think about it

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<v Speaker 1>and we think about the unfolding, you know, perhaps the

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<v Speaker 1>FED easing off, which is not at all in the

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<v Speaker 1>script right now, even though people this is important to

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<v Speaker 1>that point. In the last twenty two hours, we've heard

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<v Speaker 1>here David Rosenberg and Looked till You of Wilmington Trust

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<v Speaker 1>both scream the disinflation story. Edward Hyman screams. Ed Hyman says,

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<v Speaker 1>we're going from eight ish nine ish and we're going down,

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<v Speaker 1>not to two, but we're going to four percent. What

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<v Speaker 1>does your world do if we get an ed Heiman disinflation?

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<v Speaker 1>Stocks do well? Stocks they do double digit well? Like

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<v Speaker 1>do they roar? Not in this environment, not yet, because

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<v Speaker 1>that likelihood is that if that happens. Ed's view of

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<v Speaker 1>one percent GDP is probably where we are in and

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<v Speaker 1>that's still a constrained environment. But I want to make

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<v Speaker 1>a point here. Okay, you've got three FED speakers today, Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>and if you think about it, going back to the

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<v Speaker 1>first hike in March, every time there was an extreme

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<v Speaker 1>sort of market response to anything that Pal said, both

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<v Speaker 1>either hawkish or dubbish. The FED speakers come out and

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<v Speaker 1>have moderated the tone. It's going to be very informative

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<v Speaker 1>what they say. Can we give him on every day

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<v Speaker 1>the other day, I mean, just to lighten it up here,

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<v Speaker 1>people can talk to his people. So far, Julian, to

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<v Speaker 1>your point, the other FED officials have absolutely double down.

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<v Speaker 1>They have not watered down j Powell's message at all.

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<v Speaker 1>They've gone quite the other way. How does that inform

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<v Speaker 1>your assertion, which is rather dramatic, that the growth led

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<v Speaker 1>rally is over. You're basically repudiating this idea that big

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<v Speaker 1>tech can rally in the face of perhaps more economic weakness,

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<v Speaker 1>even with a FED that is determined to high grades. Well.

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<v Speaker 1>And again, it's surprising to the extent in the last

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<v Speaker 1>couple of days how much the other FED officials have

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<v Speaker 1>doubled down. But what it does is it just when

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<v Speaker 1>you when you look at yields, you know they're going

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<v Speaker 1>up on the short end rates, but also when you

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<v Speaker 1>think about the fact that tomorrow we're gonna start billion

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<v Speaker 1>a month in QT, it's hard not to make the

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<v Speaker 1>case that yields on the long end or going up

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<v Speaker 1>as well. And again, as we've seen in this positively

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<v Speaker 1>correlated stock bond world, that's a massive headwind for stocks,

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<v Speaker 1>particularly for growth stocks. What kind of downside are you

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<v Speaker 1>seeing Julian. I would say the key here is does

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<v Speaker 1>the consumer hold in in September? If you think about it,

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<v Speaker 1>one of the anomalies of this year is that consumer

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<v Speaker 1>sentiment has been absolutely abysmal the entire year, and spending

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<v Speaker 1>has been fine. Obviously, that's one of the strangeness is

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<v Speaker 1>about a new inflationary environment. But if you think about it,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, could you get into this idea where back

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<v Speaker 1>to the office, we're back to school Septembers is challenge?

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<v Speaker 1>That is the kind of environment. If the consumer holds in,

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<v Speaker 1>we could be okay, we you know, but if not,

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<v Speaker 1>there's a potential retest of the lows and store. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>that's just a bigger question, Jenny. And it's not about

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<v Speaker 1>whether inflation comes down to four percent, it's what price

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<v Speaker 1>you're wanting to pay to get inflation down to four percent?

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<v Speaker 1>Was unemployment when inflation comes down to four percent? What's

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<v Speaker 1>happened at g d P when inflation comes down to

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<v Speaker 1>four percent? Jenny? It's not that easy, is it just

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<v Speaker 1>to say we come down to four percent, that's good

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<v Speaker 1>for stocks? No, not at all. And and look, if

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<v Speaker 1>we've learned anything this year, or I'd argue the last

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<v Speaker 1>two and a half years, is that the tail outcomes.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, when people talk about black swans, they happen

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<v Speaker 1>a heck of a lot more frequently than we would

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<v Speaker 1>have ever imagined. And that's really what you've seen to

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<v Speaker 1>a large extent this year. And and so you know,

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<v Speaker 1>there's a lot of different potential outcomes. As we had

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<v Speaker 1>into the fall, wet trying to say, super super open

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<v Speaker 1>minded about this, Judy, and can you help us do

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<v Speaker 1>that the short and shadow consensus around a recession in America?

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<v Speaker 1>How are you being the team thinking about maybe the

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<v Speaker 1>tail risks here? So we continue to think that you're

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<v Speaker 1>not likely to have a recession. But if Ed's view

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<v Speaker 1>of one percent GDP next year is correct and we

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<v Speaker 1>see asymmetrical pardon me, symmetrical risks around that number, it's

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<v Speaker 1>still going to feel for asset markets from time to

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<v Speaker 1>time as if there's a recession that argues for higher volatility.

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<v Speaker 1>And then again, you know Ed said it a couple

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<v Speaker 1>of days ago, it argues for humility and forecast. As

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<v Speaker 1>that sent out the memo, everyone get back to the office.

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<v Speaker 1>There's a real question did he do a Solomon the memo?

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<v Speaker 1>You know, day after labor day. We're we're we're we're

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<v Speaker 1>guns blazing. Get back in that ties a backup notice

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<v Speaker 1>as wold something, did you notice that a message when

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<v Speaker 1>was with us from government? I noticed the tie was back,

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<v Speaker 1>but only after the interview. But the tie was the

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<v Speaker 1>time pandemic. Yean took it off both times. Gone Tom,

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<v Speaker 1>the tie is gone. No, Jillian, thank you. It's got

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<v Speaker 1>to see you on the open. Christian Nodding joins its

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<v Speaker 1>collobal chief investment officer at Deutsche Bank Private Bank. Christian,

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<v Speaker 1>we have taken out the June highs on a two

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<v Speaker 1>year year old. And the question a lot of people

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<v Speaker 1>are asking is whether they secuity market has to test

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<v Speaker 1>that June loves your thoughts well. From from our point

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<v Speaker 1>of view, if you think from a gross perspective, we

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<v Speaker 1>do think there is at least my procession coming in

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<v Speaker 1>the US, and there's also a recession unavoidable for US

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<v Speaker 1>in the Eurozone. And from that perspective, I wouldn't be

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<v Speaker 1>surprised if equity markets going on a bit further from here.

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<v Speaker 1>And we have been calling um saying the June Judy

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<v Speaker 1>uptick is probably not is a bear market. Relly is

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<v Speaker 1>probably not. Where we end we've been arguing for by

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<v Speaker 1>the next tip, and I wouldn't be surprised if we

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<v Speaker 1>see and if you look at the the markets, is

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<v Speaker 1>another three four or five six percent depending on the

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<v Speaker 1>markets downside, I wouldn't pull out that we get there

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<v Speaker 1>from from our point of view, Christianity, what do you

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<v Speaker 1>do with bands? The chart that I put up earlier,

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<v Speaker 1>price flat yield, I guess up a little bit. Global

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<v Speaker 1>bonds on an aggregate basis are back eleven years? What

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<v Speaker 1>do you do with that institution? Like? Well, from all

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<v Speaker 1>point of you, it has been right to be short duration,

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<v Speaker 1>and we kept it. So from that perspective, at least

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<v Speaker 1>you can avoid to be super long duration, as as

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<v Speaker 1>many investors sometimes have to be. I think that's number one.

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<v Speaker 1>And then you really need to look at quality from

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<v Speaker 1>our point of view, So um you had discussed before.

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<v Speaker 1>If there's a recession, what doesn't mean to credit spreads?

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<v Speaker 1>I think we also need to look a little bit ahead,

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<v Speaker 1>as we don't expect, at least in the US sustained

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<v Speaker 1>long recession. Maybe it's two quarters, three quarters. I think

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<v Speaker 1>if spreads are widening, there is an opportunity if you

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<v Speaker 1>look into investment grade. I would be a bit more

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<v Speaker 1>careful on on the high yield side from our point

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<v Speaker 1>if we don't think these levels which seem attractive but

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<v Speaker 1>from our point of view, is not where we want

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<v Speaker 1>to go in right now. Christian, is is European a

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<v Speaker 1>toxic place to invest in right now based on the

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<v Speaker 1>energy backdrop and some of the volatility there? Or are

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<v Speaker 1>you still seeing perhaps some opportunities even ahead of the US.

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<v Speaker 1>But I wouldn't call it toxic place to be very honest.

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<v Speaker 1>But of course it's tough to be very optimistic about

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<v Speaker 1>you at this point in time. Let's call it like this.

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<v Speaker 1>I think there are opportunities. If you think the e

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<v Speaker 1>c B is is doing quite a lot, as we do,

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<v Speaker 1>we can imagine over the next twelve months the ECB

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<v Speaker 1>is moving from zero now to two, which is quite something.

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<v Speaker 1>I would say. There is I think opportunities in European

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<v Speaker 1>financials which could profit from that. But for the overall market,

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<v Speaker 1>it depends really on the energy crisis and how the

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<v Speaker 1>winds plays out to be, and from that perspective, it's

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<v Speaker 1>not going to be easy for Europe the next month.

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<v Speaker 1>I think, Christian, did you just say that you're investing

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<v Speaker 1>in European banks. Yeah, I think European financials have upside because,

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<v Speaker 1>as I said, if the e c B is moving,

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<v Speaker 1>they can profit from from a higher interest rate level.

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<v Speaker 1>And from that perspective, now we are at zero and

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<v Speaker 1>I would expect the ECB not to look so much

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<v Speaker 1>at growth because their targets really price stability and to

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<v Speaker 1>move up in increasing rates. And from that perspective, I

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<v Speaker 1>think that would be positive for them. Yes, the Christian

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<v Speaker 1>how can it to a recession? What's more important here?

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<v Speaker 1>It's the right hikes, So they came a backdrop. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>but I think yeah, recession, yes, but also here in Europe,

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's not a recession which is a deep recession,

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<v Speaker 1>which which takes quarters and quarters. From that perspective, yes,

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<v Speaker 1>there is some implication and you have not seen a

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<v Speaker 1>massive movement upwards. Although the market is pricing some of

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<v Speaker 1>the s B hikes, not all. I think the e

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<v Speaker 1>CB is doing more and from that perspective, I think

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<v Speaker 1>there could be some positives being overgrowth looking at rate hikes.

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<v Speaker 1>From our point of view, well that's the try for

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<v Speaker 1>the Brive Christian, Thank you, sir Christian. Now in their

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<v Speaker 1>bank private bank. Deborah Cunningham wakes us up for September

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<v Speaker 1>Global liquidity markets officers Federated rome As were thrilled she

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<v Speaker 1>could join us this morning. What does CFOs do in September?

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<v Speaker 1>I get the idea of equities, everybody comes back, They recalibrate,

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<v Speaker 1>blah blah blah. What does CFOs do about the issuance

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<v Speaker 1>of UH bills, notes and bonds come September? Well, I

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<v Speaker 1>think they look at what the plans are for the

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<v Speaker 1>rest of the year, where they're going into the next year,

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<v Speaker 1>and decide on short term, long term how much UM

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<v Speaker 1>you know, in in what secretary of the market they're issuing.

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<v Speaker 1>We'll see debt come come into the marketplace. I agree.

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<v Speaker 1>Robert Schiffman has a stunning essay out on Amazon at

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Intelligence this morning of the financing that they could

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<v Speaker 1>do for a one billion dollar possible transaction just to

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<v Speaker 1>get the firepower in year world. Is a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>debt going to be issued just to get the firepower ready?

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<v Speaker 1>You know, I think there have been companies that have

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<v Speaker 1>UM have have already termed out some debt taking advantage

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<v Speaker 1>of what they think are the shortest or the lowest

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<v Speaker 1>rates that are going to be UM, you know, available

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<v Speaker 1>to them for a while as inflation continues to be

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<v Speaker 1>an issue. UM. But I don't think it's everyone. I

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<v Speaker 1>think you've still got you know, asset backed issuers. I

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<v Speaker 1>think you have corporates. I think you have financials that

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<v Speaker 1>are all looking still for additional debt financing in the

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<v Speaker 1>short term sector as well as maybe the you know,

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<v Speaker 1>short to intermediate area of the bond curve over the

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<v Speaker 1>next UM, over the rest of this year and into

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<v Speaker 1>two thousand and twenty three, debor you've got a front

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<v Speaker 1>row seat and to one of the biggest questions in

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<v Speaker 1>markets coming up, particularly starting this week, with the acceleration

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<v Speaker 1>of the runoff and the balance sheet and what that

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<v Speaker 1>will do with respect the removal of liquidity in up markets,

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<v Speaker 1>how much that will inject volatility, UH into a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of the banking sphere in particular, what's your view in

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<v Speaker 1>terms of what you're seeing on the ground with liquidity

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<v Speaker 1>exiting certain aspects of the market that really have been

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<v Speaker 1>fueling some of the frontier areas well. Certainly, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>it's been going on since June. Now it's gonna double,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, starting next month, starting starting tomorrow, UM and

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<v Speaker 1>it's been masked by other issues in the economy. So

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<v Speaker 1>you know, what we have seen so far from a

0:12:29.280 --> 0:12:32.880
<v Speaker 1>roll off of treasury and mortgage backed securities has already

0:12:33.160 --> 0:12:37.080
<v Speaker 1>been overshadowed by the increasing rate environment that we've experienced

0:12:37.360 --> 0:12:40.800
<v Speaker 1>and the sell off in those securities UM in response

0:12:40.840 --> 0:12:44.040
<v Speaker 1>to that. Uh, you know, the expectation would be as

0:12:44.080 --> 0:12:46.800
<v Speaker 1>they double it, you're looking at something that has an

0:12:46.840 --> 0:12:50.079
<v Speaker 1>impact of probably another twenty five or fifty basis point,

0:12:50.520 --> 0:12:54.480
<v Speaker 1>like tightening by UM, by the f O m C.

0:12:55.120 --> 0:12:59.120
<v Speaker 1>And as such, you know where where where are the buyers?

0:12:59.120 --> 0:13:01.920
<v Speaker 1>Who are the buyers? UM? We have, from at least

0:13:01.960 --> 0:13:05.760
<v Speaker 1>a treasury perspective, however, been in you know, sort of

0:13:05.800 --> 0:13:09.680
<v Speaker 1>a supply demand imbalance where there hasn't been enough in

0:13:09.840 --> 0:13:12.760
<v Speaker 1>supply in the marketplace. So it's really gonna be welcomed,

0:13:12.840 --> 0:13:15.760
<v Speaker 1>I think to some degree, for you know, the most

0:13:15.880 --> 0:13:20.240
<v Speaker 1>highest quality treasury securities in the marketplace. From an MBS standpoint,

0:13:20.240 --> 0:13:22.120
<v Speaker 1>there may be a little bit more resistance, but it's

0:13:22.160 --> 0:13:25.079
<v Speaker 1>smaller volume there as well. Debra, gotta leave it there,

0:13:25.080 --> 0:13:31.720
<v Speaker 1>thank you, Debora. Kind of federated. I think it's coming back,

0:13:31.800 --> 0:13:33.800
<v Speaker 1>and obviously a lot of this is just gonna have

0:13:33.840 --> 0:13:36.360
<v Speaker 1>to the macro environment. You know, if we see markets

0:13:36.360 --> 0:13:38.880
<v Speaker 1>crash again, we're going to see crypto crash along with it.

0:13:38.840 --> 0:13:40.839
<v Speaker 1>I see a market recovery, we're going to see a

0:13:40.840 --> 0:13:43.720
<v Speaker 1>crypto recovery along with it. But I think this is

0:13:44.040 --> 0:13:45.880
<v Speaker 1>you know, it's flushed out a lot of the things

0:13:45.880 --> 0:13:48.360
<v Speaker 1>that needed to be flushed out from the crypto space anyway.

0:13:48.880 --> 0:13:51.839
<v Speaker 1>It wasn't dead, dead, bath and beyond. But go from

0:13:52.400 --> 0:13:55.600
<v Speaker 1>billion dot eight billion network net worth makes it difficult.

0:13:55.640 --> 0:14:00.120
<v Speaker 1>Two thousand four Sam Bankman free with David Rubens and

0:14:00.160 --> 0:14:04.120
<v Speaker 1>this is an extremely important conversation for all wired up

0:14:04.120 --> 0:14:07.440
<v Speaker 1>to crypto like me and Lisa. Mr Rubinstein joins us

0:14:07.480 --> 0:14:11.200
<v Speaker 1>this morning. Look for that nine pm tonight. Um, this

0:14:11.200 --> 0:14:14.280
<v Speaker 1>guy's controversial, to say the least. What is his cred

0:14:14.400 --> 0:14:18.080
<v Speaker 1>What is the thing that he has that makes people

0:14:18.120 --> 0:14:20.680
<v Speaker 1>in crypto listen to him? Well, he's very smart and

0:14:20.680 --> 0:14:22.360
<v Speaker 1>he's made a lot of money. When you make a

0:14:22.360 --> 0:14:24.200
<v Speaker 1>lot of money, that's still a lot of money to David.

0:14:24.360 --> 0:14:26.720
<v Speaker 1>But at the age of thirty he was worth twenty

0:14:26.720 --> 0:14:29.600
<v Speaker 1>two billion dollars. He became the youngest person to sign

0:14:29.680 --> 0:14:32.040
<v Speaker 1>the Giving Pledge, and he's committed to giving away all

0:14:32.120 --> 0:14:34.760
<v Speaker 1>his money. He basically spends nothing on himself. He lives

0:14:34.800 --> 0:14:38.200
<v Speaker 1>in to Bahamas, basically has no clothes of any consequency,

0:14:38.200 --> 0:14:41.240
<v Speaker 1>wear shorts and T shirts and tennis shoes all the time,

0:14:41.600 --> 0:14:44.000
<v Speaker 1>listen to dorm with eight a friends or so. He

0:14:44.080 --> 0:14:48.040
<v Speaker 1>only cares about certain public issues and public policy. But

0:14:48.160 --> 0:14:51.800
<v Speaker 1>he's very unusual. How does he control or what does

0:14:51.800 --> 0:14:55.520
<v Speaker 1>he believe the price of bitcoin will do? How does

0:14:55.560 --> 0:14:59.240
<v Speaker 1>it discover a bid at whatever level? Well, I didn't

0:14:59.240 --> 0:15:02.520
<v Speaker 1>ask him that because he's basically he operates f t X,

0:15:02.560 --> 0:15:05.440
<v Speaker 1>which is an exchange, so it gives everybody the opportunity

0:15:05.440 --> 0:15:08.880
<v Speaker 1>to buy or sell bit coin or other cryptocurrencies. He

0:15:08.920 --> 0:15:11.360
<v Speaker 1>doesn't know what the right price should be. He recently

0:15:11.400 --> 0:15:14.560
<v Speaker 1>bailed out a lot of companies that had troubles. He

0:15:14.640 --> 0:15:16.440
<v Speaker 1>might lose money on all that, but he feels it

0:15:16.480 --> 0:15:18.680
<v Speaker 1>was good for the industry. So why is this industry

0:15:18.720 --> 0:15:21.320
<v Speaker 1>important from a social benefit kind of way? If he

0:15:21.520 --> 0:15:24.640
<v Speaker 1>is David incredibly idealistic and looking for the em betterment

0:15:25.080 --> 0:15:30.320
<v Speaker 1>of a social order, Well, his view is that people

0:15:30.360 --> 0:15:32.480
<v Speaker 1>who have money should give away that money or do

0:15:32.560 --> 0:15:35.120
<v Speaker 1>things for good social purposes. And that's what he's always

0:15:35.120 --> 0:15:36.880
<v Speaker 1>believed and he now has a fair amount of money,

0:15:36.880 --> 0:15:38.880
<v Speaker 1>and he's giving away a good deal of money. He's

0:15:38.920 --> 0:15:40.840
<v Speaker 1>also involved in politics, and he gives a lot of

0:15:40.840 --> 0:15:43.320
<v Speaker 1>money the politicians. He thinks it's good to get good

0:15:43.480 --> 0:15:45.640
<v Speaker 1>public servants in government, and so he's trying to back

0:15:45.680 --> 0:15:47.680
<v Speaker 1>the ones he thinks are good. He has an unusual

0:15:47.720 --> 0:15:50.520
<v Speaker 1>lifestyle in that he's really not buying any of the

0:15:50.560 --> 0:15:52.640
<v Speaker 1>accouterments of wealth that you normally get when you have,

0:15:52.840 --> 0:15:56.120
<v Speaker 1>you know, multi billion dollar fortune. I have to pivot

0:15:56.200 --> 0:15:59.480
<v Speaker 1>a little bit because David Rubinstein. I caught an article

0:15:59.720 --> 0:16:01.960
<v Speaker 1>that was written about you a couple of days ago

0:16:02.200 --> 0:16:06.200
<v Speaker 1>about your potential bid for the Nationals, possibly the Orioles

0:16:06.200 --> 0:16:09.800
<v Speaker 1>should they come up for offer. Is this is this

0:16:09.880 --> 0:16:13.080
<v Speaker 1>a moment of passion or is this something that's actually

0:16:13.080 --> 0:16:15.440
<v Speaker 1>an investment at a time when a lot of people

0:16:15.480 --> 0:16:19.480
<v Speaker 1>are looking for alternative assets. Well, um, you know, I

0:16:20.160 --> 0:16:21.840
<v Speaker 1>realized when I was young, I wasn't going to be

0:16:21.880 --> 0:16:24.240
<v Speaker 1>a professional baseball player. I thought I was a great

0:16:24.280 --> 0:16:26.080
<v Speaker 1>star at six or seven, but when I got the

0:16:26.120 --> 0:16:27.920
<v Speaker 1>eight or nine, I realized I probably wasn't going to

0:16:28.000 --> 0:16:30.200
<v Speaker 1>make the major leagues. So I figured if I ever

0:16:30.200 --> 0:16:31.840
<v Speaker 1>get the major leagues, I probably have to do it

0:16:31.880 --> 0:16:34.200
<v Speaker 1>as an investor or an owner. So I have I

0:16:34.240 --> 0:16:37.800
<v Speaker 1>am from Baltimore. I have looked at, uh whether buying

0:16:37.800 --> 0:16:40.080
<v Speaker 1>a baseball team makes some sense, but that's too early

0:16:40.120 --> 0:16:43.800
<v Speaker 1>to say. What's going to happen now? I at least

0:16:43.920 --> 0:16:46.720
<v Speaker 1>that was a very dangerous question. Why is it dangerous, David?

0:16:47.040 --> 0:16:50.480
<v Speaker 1>It was a dangerous question. Gonna come back again. UM

0:16:50.920 --> 0:16:54.160
<v Speaker 1>to the point of baseball and sports the stereotype of

0:16:54.280 --> 0:16:56.840
<v Speaker 1>big hitters as they can buy any sports team and

0:16:56.880 --> 0:17:00.520
<v Speaker 1>it never goes down, It just always goes up. Why

0:17:00.640 --> 0:17:03.720
<v Speaker 1>is that it's hard to lose money on a sports

0:17:03.720 --> 0:17:06.479
<v Speaker 1>team generally when you own them. The NFL teams they

0:17:06.520 --> 0:17:11.879
<v Speaker 1>make money as hand over fist um, Baseball, basketball, um.

0:17:11.880 --> 0:17:14.120
<v Speaker 1>Other teams they make money when you tend to sell

0:17:14.160 --> 0:17:17.520
<v Speaker 1>the team UM. And so people rarely lose money selling

0:17:17.520 --> 0:17:20.199
<v Speaker 1>a team. In the end, if you you can support

0:17:20.280 --> 0:17:23.760
<v Speaker 1>the team without current income from the team, you can

0:17:23.920 --> 0:17:25.960
<v Speaker 1>do quite well just holding it for quite some time.

0:17:26.240 --> 0:17:28.280
<v Speaker 1>But if you look at most people who have made

0:17:28.280 --> 0:17:31.920
<v Speaker 1>money in baseball is by selling the team, not operating

0:17:31.920 --> 0:17:33.520
<v Speaker 1>a daily On the other hand, some teams are very

0:17:33.560 --> 0:17:37.000
<v Speaker 1>profitable on cash flow basis. Where are you and Carlisle

0:17:37.080 --> 0:17:41.560
<v Speaker 1>with the investments over the years on public investment in stadium. Now,

0:17:41.560 --> 0:17:43.919
<v Speaker 1>you don't need to do that in Baltimore because Camden

0:17:44.000 --> 0:17:48.080
<v Speaker 1>Yards is truly one of our jewels. But but should

0:17:48.200 --> 0:17:50.760
<v Speaker 1>public funds be spent I'm trying to think of the

0:17:50.800 --> 0:17:53.280
<v Speaker 1>city right now where this is a raging debate should

0:17:53.320 --> 0:17:58.240
<v Speaker 1>we buy new baseball stadiums? Well, every every government official

0:17:58.320 --> 0:18:01.240
<v Speaker 1>presumably is elected by people, and they make the decisions

0:18:01.280 --> 0:18:04.920
<v Speaker 1>that hopefully reflect what their population wants. So populations tend

0:18:04.920 --> 0:18:07.879
<v Speaker 1>to want these things. People like the sports teams. You

0:18:07.960 --> 0:18:11.920
<v Speaker 1>have such an enduring place in philanthropy. If Mr Sam

0:18:11.960 --> 0:18:15.840
<v Speaker 1>Bankman Freed enjoys going from twenty two billion down to

0:18:15.960 --> 0:18:19.160
<v Speaker 1>eight billion, and let's say bitcoin cracks and goes down

0:18:19.160 --> 0:18:23.920
<v Speaker 1>to whatever, twelve thousand, whatever, does he change? I don't

0:18:23.920 --> 0:18:26.040
<v Speaker 1>think he changes a lot. He's remember, he's not spending

0:18:26.080 --> 0:18:29.760
<v Speaker 1>this on his personal kind of uh needs. He's not

0:18:29.800 --> 0:18:32.520
<v Speaker 1>buying homes or planes or things like that. And I

0:18:32.520 --> 0:18:34.960
<v Speaker 1>think whether he's worth eight billion, twenty two billion, or

0:18:34.960 --> 0:18:36.800
<v Speaker 1>one billion, I don't think he's going to change very much.

0:18:36.960 --> 0:18:39.199
<v Speaker 1>He's very young, he's only thirty years old. I'd like

0:18:39.280 --> 0:18:41.440
<v Speaker 1>you to come back and talk to me for one

0:18:41.480 --> 0:18:45.240
<v Speaker 1>hour about the National Archives, which is being dragged for

0:18:45.359 --> 0:18:47.240
<v Speaker 1>the mud right now. I know this is a third

0:18:47.400 --> 0:18:50.240
<v Speaker 1>rail for you, and if you find the time and

0:18:50.280 --> 0:18:53.240
<v Speaker 1>the energy, I would love to do a half hour

0:18:53.359 --> 0:18:56.199
<v Speaker 1>non stop on what is anytime, heart and soul. The

0:18:56.320 --> 0:19:00.000
<v Speaker 1>National Archives is a great institution in Washington and has

0:19:00.040 --> 0:19:02.640
<v Speaker 1>all of the records of the federal government and it's

0:19:02.640 --> 0:19:05.800
<v Speaker 1>been around from the nineteen twenties. Um, they don't have

0:19:05.840 --> 0:19:10.040
<v Speaker 1>a current head because uh, David Ferry O resigned, were tired,

0:19:10.280 --> 0:19:12.119
<v Speaker 1>but there will be somebody who is likely to be

0:19:12.160 --> 0:19:14.680
<v Speaker 1>confirmed soon, the first woman to be the chief arcibus

0:19:14.840 --> 0:19:17.000
<v Speaker 1>United States. She talked right around me there. What if

0:19:17.000 --> 0:19:20.840
<v Speaker 1>the right wing part of America goes after your National

0:19:21.040 --> 0:19:25.240
<v Speaker 1>Archives with your philanthropy on magnet card and the rest, Well,

0:19:25.400 --> 0:19:27.320
<v Speaker 1>there are people in Congress, so I think we'll prevent

0:19:27.400 --> 0:19:30.639
<v Speaker 1>that from happen. System will prevent it, I hope, so, right, David,

0:19:30.680 --> 0:19:33.639
<v Speaker 1>Thank you so much, David Rubinstein. We know tonight with

0:19:33.760 --> 0:19:36.320
<v Speaker 1>f t X CEO Sam Bankman Fried and as Lisa

0:19:36.359 --> 0:19:39.600
<v Speaker 1>Bramwitz said to me in my ear, Orioles three games

0:19:39.600 --> 0:19:42.199
<v Speaker 1>behind in the wild card race as well. Thank you

0:19:42.240 --> 0:19:44.520
<v Speaker 1>for that information. You keep throwing me under the bus, right,

0:19:46.720 --> 0:19:49.440
<v Speaker 1>and you have the badge words tomorrow. This is the

0:19:49.480 --> 0:19:54.119
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Thanks for listening. Join us live weekdays

0:19:54.200 --> 0:19:57.639
<v Speaker 1>from seven to ten AMI Eastern on Bloomberg Radio and

0:19:57.840 --> 0:20:02.159
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0:20:02.400 --> 0:20:07.320
<v Speaker 1>insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations.

0:20:07.800 --> 0:20:12.480
<v Speaker 1>And subscribe to the Surveillance podcast on Apple podcast, SoundCloud,

0:20:12.640 --> 0:20:16.240
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg dot com, and of course on the terminal. I'm

0:20:16.280 --> 0:20:18.919
<v Speaker 1>Tom Keene, and this is Bloomberg