1
00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:02,840
Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

2
00:00:03,200 --> 00:00:09,240
Speaker 2: I'm just about that action Bosso eleven trained men face

3
00:00:09,320 --> 00:00:09,960
Speaker 2: to face on.

4
00:00:09,960 --> 00:00:13,640
Speaker 3: The field of play, like the Barians at the gates

5
00:00:13,640 --> 00:00:22,360
Speaker 3: of group. Let's go, let's come one quiet a time.

6
00:00:22,880 --> 00:00:26,840
Speaker 2: Furst laws say that thing up there, that's a still board.

7
00:00:27,200 --> 00:00:29,000
Speaker 3: Hey, if they didn't know that sound of a gun

8
00:00:29,080 --> 00:00:30,520
Speaker 3: up there, that I wouldn't mean anything.

9
00:00:30,840 --> 00:00:34,120
Speaker 1: They can't cover that in a million years. See, that's

10
00:00:34,159 --> 00:00:35,080
Speaker 1: like stealing all of.

11
00:00:35,000 --> 00:00:39,960
Speaker 3: That less it's probing the sport of all the time.

12
00:00:41,040 --> 00:00:45,400
Speaker 1: You ain't know that there's no more down there? All right,

13
00:00:45,440 --> 00:00:46,000
Speaker 1: hit that horn?

14
00:00:46,040 --> 00:00:50,720
Speaker 3: Baby, let's dad? What is up?

15
00:00:50,760 --> 00:00:54,400
Speaker 1: Everybody? Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, presented by Bett MVM.

16
00:00:54,480 --> 00:00:56,880
Speaker 1: I'm your host Chris Raybaun of The Action Network, and

17
00:00:56,920 --> 00:00:59,960
Speaker 1: this is our a FCA Win Totals episode for twin

18
00:01:00,280 --> 00:01:03,280
Speaker 1: twenty four. We're back at it, joining me as always

19
00:01:03,320 --> 00:01:05,600
Speaker 1: to break it down. One of the sharpest NFL betting

20
00:01:05,640 --> 00:01:09,040
Speaker 1: minds in the game, the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation,

21
00:01:09,680 --> 00:01:13,520
Speaker 1: Stucky Stuck. What's going on? Glad to be back talking

22
00:01:13,560 --> 00:01:15,399
Speaker 1: football with you. How's your offseason?

23
00:01:16,440 --> 00:01:17,319
Speaker 3: Yeah? What's going on? Brother?

24
00:01:18,640 --> 00:01:18,840
Speaker 1: Yeah?

25
00:01:18,920 --> 00:01:23,280
Speaker 3: Off season has been good. Got some rest, got some

26
00:01:23,280 --> 00:01:26,400
Speaker 3: some books in and I got some trips coming up.

27
00:01:26,400 --> 00:01:29,600
Speaker 3: But yeah, it's back to the grind. NFL seems like

28
00:01:29,640 --> 00:01:32,400
Speaker 3: it's almost like three hundred and sixty five days of

29
00:01:32,440 --> 00:01:35,559
Speaker 3: the year at this point. But yeah, last time we spoke,

30
00:01:35,640 --> 00:01:42,080
Speaker 3: we successfully navigated the Super Bowl with my uh san

31
00:01:42,160 --> 00:01:46,640
Speaker 3: Fran first half in your game, which I'm glad worked out,

32
00:01:47,000 --> 00:01:50,800
Speaker 3: although I ended the season on just such a sour

33
00:01:50,840 --> 00:01:53,760
Speaker 3: note because I had to double overtime one hundred to one,

34
00:01:54,520 --> 00:01:59,080
Speaker 3: which was just a seconds. If they didn't snap the

35
00:01:59,120 --> 00:02:01,160
Speaker 3: ball in time, they probably would have let the clock

36
00:02:01,240 --> 00:02:04,720
Speaker 3: run down and got a double overtime if the play

37
00:02:04,720 --> 00:02:07,560
Speaker 3: clock wasn't going to run out. Anyway, it was a

38
00:02:07,560 --> 00:02:11,440
Speaker 3: fun Super Bowl and it's a good good year for

39
00:02:11,440 --> 00:02:13,440
Speaker 3: the pod. Hopefully we can repeat it today. Yeah, just

40
00:02:13,440 --> 00:02:16,760
Speaker 3: looking forward to just kind of chopping it up, keep

41
00:02:16,760 --> 00:02:19,839
Speaker 3: it really high level because later in the summer we're

42
00:02:19,840 --> 00:02:22,200
Speaker 3: going to go in depth. I got to put even

43
00:02:23,160 --> 00:02:26,119
Speaker 3: hours upon hours into these teams even more, and they'll

44
00:02:26,120 --> 00:02:30,079
Speaker 3: be injuries, they'll be more VET signings, We'll start to

45
00:02:30,120 --> 00:02:33,720
Speaker 3: get more and more intel as the summer progresses. But

46
00:02:34,560 --> 00:02:36,640
Speaker 3: I think it's a good time to just kind of

47
00:02:36,720 --> 00:02:39,920
Speaker 3: check in, get some high level thoughts after the draft

48
00:02:39,960 --> 00:02:41,239
Speaker 3: and the schedule release.

49
00:02:42,080 --> 00:02:45,520
Speaker 1: Absolutely, So we'll go team by team here, give out

50
00:02:45,520 --> 00:02:48,160
Speaker 1: each team's win total. If we have any leans early

51
00:02:48,200 --> 00:02:49,840
Speaker 1: on at this point in the offseason, which we do

52
00:02:50,400 --> 00:02:53,120
Speaker 1: for a couple of teams, we'll talk about those as well.

53
00:02:53,800 --> 00:02:57,240
Speaker 1: So let's jump right into it. Start in the AFC East,

54
00:02:57,560 --> 00:03:01,480
Speaker 1: the Buffalo Bills are projected to be the top team

55
00:03:01,520 --> 00:03:03,440
Speaker 1: with a win total of ten and a half at

56
00:03:03,480 --> 00:03:06,480
Speaker 1: bet MGM. It is slightly juiced to the under at

57
00:03:06,480 --> 00:03:10,320
Speaker 1: minus one twenty. I kind of lean under on this

58
00:03:10,400 --> 00:03:14,760
Speaker 1: one just because I do kind of question, you know,

59
00:03:14,840 --> 00:03:16,919
Speaker 1: if what the Bills did to kind of rebound last year,

60
00:03:16,960 --> 00:03:20,840
Speaker 1: you know, going extremely run heavy, if that's sustainable over

61
00:03:21,160 --> 00:03:23,920
Speaker 1: a full season, especially you know now you have no

62
00:03:23,960 --> 00:03:27,400
Speaker 1: Stefon Diggs, so that receiving course a big question to me.

63
00:03:27,480 --> 00:03:29,640
Speaker 1: I think the road schedule is pretty tough. But what

64
00:03:29,639 --> 00:03:31,800
Speaker 1: are your thoughts stuck on this Buffalo Bill team? And

65
00:03:31,840 --> 00:03:35,360
Speaker 1: in particular, you know, just does the offense have enough?

66
00:03:35,440 --> 00:03:38,040
Speaker 1: Can they put together you know, a high level offense,

67
00:03:38,040 --> 00:03:42,800
Speaker 1: an offense capable of winning eleven plus games without Stefan

68
00:03:42,880 --> 00:03:45,000
Speaker 1: Diggs or a true number one wide receiver at.

69
00:03:44,880 --> 00:03:49,440
Speaker 3: That Yeah, I mean, I think the Diggs loss is

70
00:03:49,800 --> 00:03:56,400
Speaker 3: a bit overblown just because I mean, were they weren't

71
00:03:56,400 --> 00:03:58,520
Speaker 3: even using him as much as like you would assume

72
00:03:58,600 --> 00:04:01,240
Speaker 3: for number one receiver. He would like they're there was

73
00:04:01,280 --> 00:04:02,880
Speaker 3: definitely a riff there, but he would come off the

74
00:04:02,880 --> 00:04:07,080
Speaker 3: field on third downs. But like you said, who's the

75
00:04:07,160 --> 00:04:09,440
Speaker 3: number one who? Someone needs to emerge it They lost

76
00:04:09,440 --> 00:04:11,960
Speaker 3: two hundred and fifty targets from their team last year.

77
00:04:11,960 --> 00:04:15,240
Speaker 3: Can Keon Coleman as a rookie come in and be

78
00:04:15,400 --> 00:04:19,360
Speaker 3: that guy, you know, be that reliable target. There's only

79
00:04:19,360 --> 00:04:21,039
Speaker 3: so much you can ask Talton and k to do.

80
00:04:21,480 --> 00:04:24,039
Speaker 3: I still have questions about the interior of their offensive line,

81
00:04:24,320 --> 00:04:29,479
Speaker 3: which is there's a lot of moving pieces there safety position,

82
00:04:30,040 --> 00:04:34,200
Speaker 3: So just looking at their secondary safety, to me, it's

83
00:04:34,320 --> 00:04:39,560
Speaker 3: such an important part of the McDermott defense. And I mean,

84
00:04:39,600 --> 00:04:42,200
Speaker 3: now you know you had Poyer and hide. This is

85
00:04:42,200 --> 00:04:44,440
Speaker 3: similar to what I thought was gonna happen with the

86
00:04:44,480 --> 00:04:48,039
Speaker 3: Bengals when they lost you know, their two safeties. Ana

87
00:04:48,080 --> 00:04:50,320
Speaker 3: Romo was quoted saying, it's gonna be a dark day

88
00:04:50,680 --> 00:04:54,039
Speaker 3: if we lose both of our safeties, and they did,

89
00:04:54,080 --> 00:04:56,279
Speaker 3: and it was a pretty dark day. We'll get to

90
00:04:56,320 --> 00:04:58,279
Speaker 3: the Bengals, So I think I did address that position.

91
00:04:58,360 --> 00:05:00,800
Speaker 3: But yeah, looking at the safe and then the depth

92
00:05:00,839 --> 00:05:04,280
Speaker 3: at corner, like if I mean, it's pretty dicey if

93
00:05:04,279 --> 00:05:08,000
Speaker 3: there's any injury. So I'm a little I'm a bit

94
00:05:08,040 --> 00:05:10,240
Speaker 3: worried about their defense. I mean, von Miller, what are

95
00:05:10,240 --> 00:05:14,400
Speaker 3: you going to get out of him? Now? So yeah,

96
00:05:14,480 --> 00:05:17,720
Speaker 3: I asked some questions about this team. I am right

97
00:05:17,760 --> 00:05:22,680
Speaker 3: on projection wise with their win total, like I project

98
00:05:22,680 --> 00:05:27,919
Speaker 3: a little over ten, So no play for me. But

99
00:05:28,400 --> 00:05:33,039
Speaker 3: the Bills, it just feels like, and I know Bills

100
00:05:33,040 --> 00:05:36,440
Speaker 3: fans are gonna hate to hear this, but potentially that

101
00:05:36,600 --> 00:05:42,800
Speaker 3: window that they had might have at least partially closed.

102
00:05:43,520 --> 00:05:44,920
Speaker 3: I wish we would have gotten that future of the

103
00:05:44,920 --> 00:05:49,640
Speaker 3: window last year's fifty to one. But yeah, there's definitely

104
00:05:49,680 --> 00:05:51,560
Speaker 3: some questions on this roster. Still one of the better

105
00:05:51,560 --> 00:05:55,279
Speaker 3: teams in the AFC, but many more questions that I

106
00:05:55,360 --> 00:05:57,640
Speaker 3: have compared to recent seasons.

107
00:05:58,200 --> 00:06:01,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, and let's keep in mind if AFE UH once again,

108
00:06:01,279 --> 00:06:03,839
Speaker 1: at least at this point, is looking pretty stacked, you know,

109
00:06:04,200 --> 00:06:07,560
Speaker 1: especially if the Jets and Aaron Rodgers come back you know, healthy,

110
00:06:07,680 --> 00:06:10,720
Speaker 1: and and the you know, the Bengals and Burrow come

111
00:06:10,760 --> 00:06:13,960
Speaker 1: back healthy. So to me, this looks like a good team,

112
00:06:14,240 --> 00:06:17,640
Speaker 1: but no longer you know, a shooing elite team like

113
00:06:17,680 --> 00:06:19,960
Speaker 1: they could be elite. That obviously is their ceiling. But

114
00:06:20,000 --> 00:06:21,560
Speaker 1: to me, it looks more like a good team I think,

115
00:06:21,720 --> 00:06:24,320
Speaker 1: you know, going on the road. Obviously are facing Miami

116
00:06:24,640 --> 00:06:28,280
Speaker 1: the Jets on the road, but also Baltimore, Houston, Detroit,

117
00:06:30,400 --> 00:06:33,320
Speaker 1: San fran Yeah, yeah, like, yeah, those are at home,

118
00:06:33,360 --> 00:06:35,360
Speaker 1: but those Kansas City is going into the by San

119
00:06:35,440 --> 00:06:37,919
Speaker 1: France coming out to buy. So that's not easy. Just

120
00:06:37,920 --> 00:06:40,200
Speaker 1: a really tough schedules you would expect for for a

121
00:06:40,279 --> 00:06:43,640
Speaker 1: top team, you know, in that division. But yeah, I

122
00:06:43,640 --> 00:06:45,359
Speaker 1: think it's gonna be tough. I think it's gonna be

123
00:06:45,360 --> 00:06:48,120
Speaker 1: tough sledding. And if that, I think somebody needs to

124
00:06:48,160 --> 00:06:50,680
Speaker 1: step up at receiver. And at this point, we just

125
00:06:50,720 --> 00:06:52,440
Speaker 1: don't really know who that's gonna be, or if there

126
00:06:52,520 --> 00:06:55,760
Speaker 1: is gonna be somebody. So I'm a little bit under

127
00:06:55,800 --> 00:06:58,080
Speaker 1: this ten and a half. I think, you know, they finished,

128
00:06:58,080 --> 00:07:00,719
Speaker 1: you know, nine or ten to me is the most

129
00:07:00,839 --> 00:07:02,760
Speaker 1: likely outcome at this point in the off season for

130
00:07:02,800 --> 00:07:03,760
Speaker 1: the Buffalo Bills.

131
00:07:04,040 --> 00:07:06,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, I've had a better I'd go I'd go under,

132
00:07:06,240 --> 00:07:09,920
Speaker 3: but yeah, road trips to Seattle and the Rams aren't

133
00:07:09,920 --> 00:07:10,400
Speaker 3: easy weeks.

134
00:07:10,400 --> 00:07:11,600
Speaker 1: Two things the country.

135
00:07:11,680 --> 00:07:14,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, you assume they beat Arizona to start

136
00:07:14,080 --> 00:07:16,200
Speaker 3: the season, but then you know you're at Miami home

137
00:07:16,200 --> 00:07:20,000
Speaker 3: against Jacksonville, at Baltimore, at Houston at the Jets, like

138
00:07:20,720 --> 00:07:22,520
Speaker 3: with some of the questions on the roster, they could

139
00:07:22,560 --> 00:07:27,440
Speaker 3: get off to a really slow start here and uh yeah,

140
00:07:27,520 --> 00:07:30,360
Speaker 3: so no play on the Bills, but I would lead.

141
00:07:30,320 --> 00:07:34,920
Speaker 1: Under Miami nine and a half wins them and the

142
00:07:34,960 --> 00:07:37,280
Speaker 1: Jets are both tied, but Miami is a little more

143
00:07:37,360 --> 00:07:39,240
Speaker 1: juice to the over at minus one to forty five

144
00:07:39,280 --> 00:07:42,680
Speaker 1: at bet MGM. Now, some things to note with Miami.

145
00:07:43,040 --> 00:07:47,560
Speaker 1: They you know, their opponents have arrest advantage on them.

146
00:07:47,560 --> 00:07:49,240
Speaker 1: They're one of they have one of the worst rest

147
00:07:49,280 --> 00:07:54,800
Speaker 1: advantages in the league. Does through the Dolphins, And I

148
00:07:54,880 --> 00:07:57,560
Speaker 1: like the Kendall Fuller sign at cornerback. I still think

149
00:07:57,560 --> 00:08:01,600
Speaker 1: the interior offensive mine is a concern. You know, so

150
00:08:01,880 --> 00:08:05,320
Speaker 1: it's a team. I think wider range of outcomes for me.

151
00:08:05,640 --> 00:08:06,160
Speaker 1: What about you?

152
00:08:07,840 --> 00:08:11,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, I you know, what what is the update? I

153
00:08:11,560 --> 00:08:14,640
Speaker 3: should not this before doing a pop What is the

154
00:08:14,720 --> 00:08:18,920
Speaker 3: what is the like most reasonable expectation? For when Phillips

155
00:08:18,920 --> 00:08:19,520
Speaker 3: will come back.

156
00:08:21,160 --> 00:08:23,000
Speaker 1: I don't have that off the top. That's a good question.

157
00:08:23,080 --> 00:08:27,320
Speaker 1: Let me see, because he got late in the year, right,

158
00:08:27,400 --> 00:08:28,120
Speaker 1: that was pretty late.

159
00:08:28,480 --> 00:08:31,560
Speaker 3: And it's a defense that lost a lot. They lost

160
00:08:31,600 --> 00:08:34,480
Speaker 3: a lot of pieces, uh, you know, Wilkins, Van Ginkel,

161
00:08:35,200 --> 00:08:37,440
Speaker 3: Jones in the back end. Now they brought in a

162
00:08:37,440 --> 00:08:40,959
Speaker 3: lot of you know, they brought in Fuller, Poyer, Galla

163
00:08:41,040 --> 00:08:45,160
Speaker 3: More Brooks, kind of more quantity over quality, trying to

164
00:08:45,160 --> 00:08:48,520
Speaker 3: plug some of those holes. And obviously you bring in

165
00:08:48,600 --> 00:08:53,640
Speaker 3: obj John Smith, Aaron Berg at center, uh to anchor

166
00:08:53,679 --> 00:08:54,600
Speaker 3: the offensive line.

167
00:08:55,520 --> 00:08:55,720
Speaker 1: You know.

168
00:08:55,880 --> 00:09:00,520
Speaker 3: I I think this team is they do have a

169
00:09:00,600 --> 00:09:02,240
Speaker 3: much easier schedule than the Bills. I have the Bills

170
00:09:02,240 --> 00:09:05,240
Speaker 3: with the fifth hardest schedule in the league per my

171
00:09:05,679 --> 00:09:09,600
Speaker 3: Power ratings at Miami at eighteen. I project them right

172
00:09:09,640 --> 00:09:14,000
Speaker 3: at like nine six ish wins, which is kind of

173
00:09:14,080 --> 00:09:19,240
Speaker 3: right on their number. I I think that this defense,

174
00:09:19,720 --> 00:09:23,120
Speaker 3: like this is supposed to be the Fangio year two

175
00:09:23,240 --> 00:09:26,120
Speaker 3: bump with the defense, right, but you're you're not getting

176
00:09:26,120 --> 00:09:29,040
Speaker 3: that and then you have a lot of turnover. So

177
00:09:29,280 --> 00:09:34,120
Speaker 3: I still think the defense and I'm just not fully

178
00:09:34,160 --> 00:09:38,880
Speaker 3: bought in on Tua being able to take this team

179
00:09:39,320 --> 00:09:43,920
Speaker 3: to the Promised Land, so they don't interest me from

180
00:09:44,120 --> 00:09:47,000
Speaker 3: you know, a future's perspective or as a longer shot.

181
00:09:48,040 --> 00:09:52,880
Speaker 3: Will be a fun team to watch obviously, but I

182
00:09:52,880 --> 00:09:56,760
Speaker 3: wouldn't be surprised if they finished. Yeah, eight nine eight,

183
00:09:57,360 --> 00:10:02,000
Speaker 3: right around, right around there. It's schedules a bit easier,

184
00:10:02,000 --> 00:10:02,840
Speaker 3: but it's silly AFC.

185
00:10:04,480 --> 00:10:07,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, And just to update on Jalen Phillips, him and

186
00:10:07,800 --> 00:10:11,800
Speaker 1: Browley Trubble's like no definitive timeline. Of course, Phillips coming

187
00:10:11,840 --> 00:10:14,880
Speaker 1: back from that Achilles, so you know, I would kind

188
00:10:14,880 --> 00:10:17,200
Speaker 1: of for now at least lead on the pessimistic side

189
00:10:17,240 --> 00:10:20,040
Speaker 1: as far as you're getting a full season at full

190
00:10:20,120 --> 00:10:23,560
Speaker 1: strength out of him. I think the schedule to close

191
00:10:23,600 --> 00:10:25,559
Speaker 1: the year is where, you know, if Miami doesn't get

192
00:10:25,559 --> 00:10:27,719
Speaker 1: off to a hot start and kind of take care

193
00:10:27,720 --> 00:10:30,120
Speaker 1: of business early, I think the schedule to close the

194
00:10:30,160 --> 00:10:33,240
Speaker 1: year could post some issues. Your final six games at

195
00:10:33,240 --> 00:10:37,160
Speaker 1: green Bay home against the Jets, at Houston, home against

196
00:10:37,160 --> 00:10:40,439
Speaker 1: the Niners, at Cleveland, and at the Jets. So that's

197
00:10:40,480 --> 00:10:45,680
Speaker 1: a tough way to end the season for the Miami Dolphins. Yep,

198
00:10:46,880 --> 00:10:48,720
Speaker 1: the New York Jets, this is a team I think

199
00:10:48,760 --> 00:10:51,000
Speaker 1: he's going to garner a lot of interest minus one

200
00:10:51,080 --> 00:10:53,920
Speaker 1: twenty juiced up to the over on nine and a

201
00:10:53,960 --> 00:10:59,199
Speaker 1: half wins at bet MGM. They do have a little

202
00:10:59,200 --> 00:11:01,440
Speaker 1: bit of a rest advance, although they are one of

203
00:11:01,480 --> 00:11:03,880
Speaker 1: the teams that has there's been more of this this

204
00:11:03,960 --> 00:11:05,839
Speaker 1: year than there has in the past. But they have

205
00:11:05,960 --> 00:11:07,800
Speaker 1: a stretch where they play three games in ten days.

206
00:11:07,840 --> 00:11:09,760
Speaker 1: But outside of that, they still do have a little

207
00:11:09,800 --> 00:11:11,920
Speaker 1: bit of a rest advantage. The defense is still stacked,

208
00:11:12,360 --> 00:11:17,280
Speaker 1: the offensive line should be improved. Wide receiver could be improved.

209
00:11:17,280 --> 00:11:19,080
Speaker 1: I mean a little better on paper, but who knows,

210
00:11:19,160 --> 00:11:21,520
Speaker 1: you might be relying on a rookie and poorly in

211
00:11:21,559 --> 00:11:23,679
Speaker 1: the slot. You know, Lazard is still there, he might

212
00:11:23,720 --> 00:11:25,400
Speaker 1: have to make the team just because of the contract.

213
00:11:25,440 --> 00:11:27,720
Speaker 1: And then who knows, you know, Mike Williams and his

214
00:11:27,800 --> 00:11:29,960
Speaker 1: health and you know, go into a new quarterback. But

215
00:11:30,000 --> 00:11:31,880
Speaker 1: I think the big question for the Jets ultimately comes

216
00:11:31,880 --> 00:11:35,400
Speaker 1: down to Tan Aaron Rodgers stay healthy and give them

217
00:11:35,960 --> 00:11:38,480
Speaker 1: what they need in his age forty one season. What

218
00:11:38,480 --> 00:11:38,880
Speaker 1: do you think?

219
00:11:40,240 --> 00:11:42,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, I project my you know, if I had to

220
00:11:42,920 --> 00:11:45,400
Speaker 3: guess what they finished with, I would say this team

221
00:11:46,520 --> 00:11:49,720
Speaker 3: will go ten and seven. If ten and seven ish,

222
00:11:49,760 --> 00:11:52,600
Speaker 3: Although I project them at like nine to two, so

223
00:11:52,880 --> 00:11:55,280
Speaker 3: my numbers slightly into the under. But I like the

224
00:11:55,320 --> 00:11:57,000
Speaker 3: way the schedule sets up. I have them with like

225
00:11:57,160 --> 00:12:03,000
Speaker 3: the seventh easiest schedule in the NFL. But you nailed it.

226
00:12:03,000 --> 00:12:07,720
Speaker 3: It comes down to health of not only Rogers, but

227
00:12:08,480 --> 00:12:11,760
Speaker 3: this entire roster, which is pretty thin. And you're you know,

228
00:12:11,800 --> 00:12:14,280
Speaker 3: they went out and they did. Credit to them, credit

229
00:12:14,280 --> 00:12:15,960
Speaker 3: to Douglas the company that they went out and they

230
00:12:16,440 --> 00:12:20,560
Speaker 3: plugged the gaps in their roster. But they did so

231
00:12:21,000 --> 00:12:24,040
Speaker 3: with a number of guys that have had injury concerns.

232
00:12:24,120 --> 00:12:26,120
Speaker 3: This has been talked about ad nauseum when it comes

233
00:12:26,120 --> 00:12:29,760
Speaker 3: to the Jets. Can these pieces stay healthy because the

234
00:12:29,840 --> 00:12:34,199
Speaker 3: depth it gets dicey quick. You need that offensive line, right.

235
00:12:34,679 --> 00:12:37,960
Speaker 3: The biggest question, you know is obviously Rogers how much

236
00:12:37,960 --> 00:12:39,880
Speaker 3: And no one knows the answer to this. How much

237
00:12:40,520 --> 00:12:42,800
Speaker 3: will he drop off from what we've seen? Right? And

238
00:12:42,960 --> 00:12:44,600
Speaker 3: you could say, you know, two years ago he had

239
00:12:44,600 --> 00:12:46,440
Speaker 3: the thumb injury, We saw a little bit of the cline.

240
00:12:46,440 --> 00:12:47,839
Speaker 3: How much of that was the thumb injury, how much

241
00:12:47,840 --> 00:12:50,240
Speaker 3: of that was his age? Last year obviously he plays.

242
00:12:50,559 --> 00:12:52,600
Speaker 3: You know, we get no data on it, but he

243
00:12:52,640 --> 00:12:57,400
Speaker 3: gets another year older. But if that offensive line can't

244
00:12:57,440 --> 00:13:01,240
Speaker 3: stay intact, then you know, all bets are off and

245
00:13:01,280 --> 00:13:04,120
Speaker 3: you got the hope that Rogers lives up to expectations

246
00:13:04,160 --> 00:13:07,760
Speaker 3: and also stays healthy. I do wish, and there was

247
00:13:08,320 --> 00:13:10,040
Speaker 3: there's a lot of talk about this. I do wish

248
00:13:10,080 --> 00:13:14,240
Speaker 3: that they went out and got another offensive coordinator. I

249
00:13:14,240 --> 00:13:16,720
Speaker 3: think Nathaniel Hackett came out today and said he believes

250
00:13:16,760 --> 00:13:21,040
Speaker 3: that Robert Styla has confidence in him. That doesn't sound

251
00:13:21,080 --> 00:13:26,160
Speaker 3: like the most confident inducing statement, but not a huge

252
00:13:26,320 --> 00:13:28,800
Speaker 3: Nathaniel Hackett guy will see how much the offense is

253
00:13:28,800 --> 00:13:31,960
Speaker 3: actually run by Rogers. But this is a team that, look,

254
00:13:32,040 --> 00:13:35,959
Speaker 3: the defense has a ton of potential. There's some questions

255
00:13:35,960 --> 00:13:38,200
Speaker 3: that's safety that I have, But you know, when you

256
00:13:38,240 --> 00:13:41,280
Speaker 3: have a really good corner group and a really good

257
00:13:41,280 --> 00:13:45,480
Speaker 3: defensive front, and now you know you have some nice weapons,

258
00:13:45,880 --> 00:13:49,000
Speaker 3: you address the offensive line. It just comes down to

259
00:13:49,160 --> 00:13:54,440
Speaker 3: health and if Rogers, you know, can be Rogers from

260
00:13:54,440 --> 00:13:56,040
Speaker 3: a couple of years ago, this team has a ton

261
00:13:56,080 --> 00:13:59,800
Speaker 3: of upside. So you know, I don't hate and people

262
00:14:00,080 --> 00:14:02,000
Speaker 3: that want to take a flyer on the Jets you say,

263
00:14:02,240 --> 00:14:04,760
Speaker 3: just based on the fact that hey, Rogers is Rogers

264
00:14:05,200 --> 00:14:07,800
Speaker 3: and there's health, and we have this defense. I mean,

265
00:14:07,800 --> 00:14:09,920
Speaker 3: think about it. The team is pretty competitive with Zach

266
00:14:09,960 --> 00:14:14,600
Speaker 3: Wilson is probably a third string quarterback this year. So yeah,

267
00:14:14,880 --> 00:14:17,800
Speaker 3: it's there's just too many, too many question marks. Nathaniel

268
00:14:17,800 --> 00:14:20,360
Speaker 3: Ackatt kind of just keeps me off of wanting to

269
00:14:20,360 --> 00:14:22,800
Speaker 3: invest in the Jets at the market price that they're

270
00:14:22,800 --> 00:14:24,920
Speaker 3: at now. So this is a stay away from me.

271
00:14:26,120 --> 00:14:28,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, I would. I would much rather invest in the

272
00:14:28,200 --> 00:14:31,080
Speaker 1: Jets than just like something high upside. Then they're the

273
00:14:31,160 --> 00:14:33,160
Speaker 1: over on their win total. Even if you do think,

274
00:14:33,320 --> 00:14:36,120
Speaker 1: you know, everything goes the right way because you kind

275
00:14:36,120 --> 00:14:38,760
Speaker 1: of hit it. You know, the depth is shaky. I

276
00:14:38,760 --> 00:14:41,200
Speaker 1: think there's some questions about how they use the draft too.

277
00:14:41,320 --> 00:14:46,960
Speaker 1: You know, they they draft Oulufashanhu out of Penn State tackle,

278
00:14:47,480 --> 00:14:49,480
Speaker 1: you know, but he, you know, is he even going

279
00:14:49,520 --> 00:14:51,960
Speaker 1: to start with with what you know, what they did

280
00:14:51,960 --> 00:14:54,760
Speaker 1: in free agency on the offensive line, and then you know,

281
00:14:54,840 --> 00:14:59,480
Speaker 1: you draft Corley out of Western Kentucky wide out, but

282
00:14:59,520 --> 00:15:03,400
Speaker 1: then also draft two backup running backs and you're with

283
00:15:03,440 --> 00:15:05,880
Speaker 1: your top five picks and a backup quarterback. You know.

284
00:15:05,960 --> 00:15:08,960
Speaker 1: So this is another situation where I mean, I think

285
00:15:09,000 --> 00:15:11,960
Speaker 1: the Jets could have used the draft a little better

286
00:15:11,960 --> 00:15:14,240
Speaker 1: to kind of help them win. Now that kind of

287
00:15:14,280 --> 00:15:16,520
Speaker 1: remains to be seen. I still have questions about Williams

288
00:15:16,520 --> 00:15:19,000
Speaker 1: and even some of these offensive line additions, you know.

289
00:15:19,120 --> 00:15:21,520
Speaker 1: I mean, I think the chantal pick is good, but

290
00:15:21,880 --> 00:15:24,000
Speaker 1: you know, Tyron Smith, that's that was a big addition.

291
00:15:24,080 --> 00:15:26,720
Speaker 1: But he's you know, he's no guarantee to stay healthy.

292
00:15:27,000 --> 00:15:31,160
Speaker 1: You know, Morgan Moses is what is he thirty three?

293
00:15:31,440 --> 00:15:35,400
Speaker 1: So you're relying on some older guys kind of all around.

294
00:15:35,400 --> 00:15:37,920
Speaker 1: You're relying on Mike Williams to come back and and

295
00:15:38,000 --> 00:15:41,720
Speaker 1: be healthy and have chemistry with a forty forty one

296
00:15:41,760 --> 00:15:43,960
Speaker 1: year old quarterback. So there's a lot of kind of

297
00:15:44,720 --> 00:15:46,880
Speaker 1: I think there's a lot of fragility. I guess I'll

298
00:15:46,920 --> 00:15:48,800
Speaker 1: put it to this Jet team this year, like the

299
00:15:48,840 --> 00:15:52,200
Speaker 1: high upside, but probably a lower floor than people think

300
00:15:52,640 --> 00:15:56,920
Speaker 1: as well, at least offensively. Yep, New England four and

301
00:15:56,960 --> 00:16:00,000
Speaker 1: a half wins juice to the over at minus one sixty.

302
00:16:00,680 --> 00:16:03,520
Speaker 1: Winter is closer to five if you want to kind

303
00:16:03,520 --> 00:16:06,880
Speaker 1: of look at it that way. But uh, the schedule

304
00:16:07,160 --> 00:16:09,640
Speaker 1: is pretty solid for them. They have a very good

305
00:16:10,200 --> 00:16:12,440
Speaker 1: edge in terms of the amount of rest stays they

306
00:16:12,480 --> 00:16:15,520
Speaker 1: have compared to their opponents at plus twelve, they have

307
00:16:15,560 --> 00:16:17,880
Speaker 1: four games where they have more rest than their opponents

308
00:16:17,880 --> 00:16:20,640
Speaker 1: and none where their opponents are coming off extra rest.

309
00:16:21,080 --> 00:16:24,720
Speaker 1: Wide receiver is still a big concern. Obviously, the quarterback

310
00:16:24,760 --> 00:16:27,400
Speaker 1: situation is a big concern. And then you also have

311
00:16:27,680 --> 00:16:30,280
Speaker 1: you also wonder you know, with Mayo. Here is a

312
00:16:30,320 --> 00:16:33,360
Speaker 1: defense that always kind of overachieved under Belichick, and it

313
00:16:33,400 --> 00:16:35,360
Speaker 1: was always greater than the sum of its parts. Can

314
00:16:35,440 --> 00:16:37,320
Speaker 1: it continue to do that now, you know, in a

315
00:16:37,760 --> 00:16:40,400
Speaker 1: new regime. So a lot of question marks about the Patriots.

316
00:16:40,800 --> 00:16:41,960
Speaker 1: What do you think it with New England?

317
00:16:43,160 --> 00:16:46,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that the hate for New England is

318
00:16:46,880 --> 00:16:49,760
Speaker 3: starting to swing a little too far and might go

319
00:16:50,480 --> 00:16:51,800
Speaker 3: you know, Mike can think you know, as far as

320
00:16:51,840 --> 00:16:55,320
Speaker 3: the wind totals concern, if it keeps coming down, I

321
00:16:55,400 --> 00:16:59,400
Speaker 3: might invest in the over when I think, I mean,

322
00:16:59,400 --> 00:17:03,560
Speaker 3: look is one of the best. I mean, I think

323
00:17:03,560 --> 00:17:06,280
Speaker 3: he's probably gonna start I don't know, I mean if

324
00:17:06,280 --> 00:17:08,359
Speaker 3: the fans that are probably gonna just be after what

325
00:17:08,400 --> 00:17:10,480
Speaker 3: they've seen, they might just be clamoring for Drake may

326
00:17:10,520 --> 00:17:14,600
Speaker 3: But the you know, the early part of the schedule

327
00:17:14,680 --> 00:17:17,360
Speaker 3: is brutal. Where you're at, since the home against Seattle,

328
00:17:17,400 --> 00:17:20,520
Speaker 3: at the Jets, at the Niners home against the Dolphins,

329
00:17:20,600 --> 00:17:24,000
Speaker 3: home against the Texans. Like, that's pretty brutal. So you

330
00:17:24,080 --> 00:17:26,960
Speaker 3: might just say, hey, look for Set's a known commodity.

331
00:17:27,000 --> 00:17:28,320
Speaker 3: And the reason, one of the reasons is one of

332
00:17:28,359 --> 00:17:30,600
Speaker 3: the best backups in the NFL. Guy doesn't turn the

333
00:17:30,600 --> 00:17:35,159
Speaker 3: ball over, makes smart decisions. So you might see, you know,

334
00:17:35,280 --> 00:17:37,679
Speaker 3: Brissette start the year and then you know, if it

335
00:17:37,720 --> 00:17:41,919
Speaker 3: goes well, he you know, then will probably continue to

336
00:17:41,960 --> 00:17:45,679
Speaker 3: be the starter. Uh. And then if it doesn't, you know,

337
00:17:45,720 --> 00:17:47,680
Speaker 3: and they're kind of belly up, then you might get

338
00:17:47,760 --> 00:17:51,920
Speaker 3: Drake May who I actually like more than a lot

339
00:17:51,920 --> 00:17:54,280
Speaker 3: of people, I think, and then he'll get to come

340
00:17:54,280 --> 00:17:56,560
Speaker 3: in if it doesn't go well against the softer part

341
00:17:56,640 --> 00:17:59,239
Speaker 3: of the schedule, which is on the back half. But

342
00:17:59,280 --> 00:18:02,520
Speaker 3: this is a team that you know, I still think

343
00:18:02,520 --> 00:18:05,040
Speaker 3: the defense. The question with Belichick is is is a

344
00:18:05,040 --> 00:18:09,359
Speaker 3: really good one? I mean, I think not having him,

345
00:18:09,880 --> 00:18:11,119
Speaker 3: it was time for him to go. It's time for

346
00:18:11,160 --> 00:18:13,320
Speaker 3: them the part ways. And he was losing his touch

347
00:18:13,359 --> 00:18:16,280
Speaker 3: in many different areas, even special teams, which is unheard

348
00:18:16,280 --> 00:18:21,320
Speaker 3: of for Belichick. But how much of his fingerprints, how

349
00:18:21,400 --> 00:18:24,440
Speaker 3: much of the defense's success was because of his adjustments

350
00:18:24,480 --> 00:18:28,600
Speaker 3: and his fingerprints. We'll find out this year, but you know,

351
00:18:28,640 --> 00:18:30,960
Speaker 3: I think the defense still has a lot of talent.

352
00:18:31,119 --> 00:18:34,399
Speaker 3: With better health, they can be a solid unit. The

353
00:18:34,480 --> 00:18:36,600
Speaker 3: questions are obviously all on the offensive side of the ball.

354
00:18:36,720 --> 00:18:41,800
Speaker 3: The offensive line, major major question marks, the wide receiver room. Yeah,

355
00:18:42,240 --> 00:18:44,879
Speaker 3: we talk about a lack of a one and then

356
00:18:44,920 --> 00:18:47,560
Speaker 3: your quarterback. So it's hard to win in the NFL,

357
00:18:47,600 --> 00:18:51,119
Speaker 3: and you have questions in those three areas on the

358
00:18:51,119 --> 00:18:55,040
Speaker 3: offensive side of the ball. But you know, I project

359
00:18:55,520 --> 00:19:00,320
Speaker 3: between five and five and a half wins, and I

360
00:19:00,400 --> 00:19:02,320
Speaker 3: you know, if they can just survive and get a

361
00:19:02,359 --> 00:19:06,720
Speaker 3: couple of wins early in the season, somehow I think

362
00:19:06,720 --> 00:19:10,679
Speaker 3: that they they'll get over this win total. But definitely

363
00:19:10,960 --> 00:19:13,520
Speaker 3: a team I'm going to keep my eyes on throughout

364
00:19:13,560 --> 00:19:16,840
Speaker 3: the summer, especially if that what happens with quarterback, if

365
00:19:16,840 --> 00:19:19,840
Speaker 3: they bring any other vets in. But they're basically they're

366
00:19:20,280 --> 00:19:23,560
Speaker 3: starting over, right, you drafted your franchise quarterback. And if

367
00:19:23,600 --> 00:19:29,439
Speaker 3: you look the Patriots, and for what it's worth, I

368
00:19:29,480 --> 00:19:31,960
Speaker 3: have the Patriots with the This is the thing gives

369
00:19:31,960 --> 00:19:33,600
Speaker 3: me a little pause. I have them with a number

370
00:19:33,640 --> 00:19:38,240
Speaker 3: of the hardest scheduling NFL this year, just pure numbers wise,

371
00:19:39,880 --> 00:19:43,760
Speaker 3: and I don't have them favored in any games. So

372
00:19:44,280 --> 00:19:46,679
Speaker 3: these are things that gives me a little pause to

373
00:19:46,760 --> 00:19:49,040
Speaker 3: go over, but just I think that if this number

374
00:19:49,119 --> 00:19:51,439
Speaker 3: keeps trickling down, I might have to. But they are

375
00:19:51,480 --> 00:19:54,440
Speaker 3: the only team in the AFC with a new head coach,

376
00:19:54,800 --> 00:19:59,080
Speaker 3: new offense coordinator, new defensive coordinator, and new quarterback. So

377
00:19:59,680 --> 00:20:01,439
Speaker 3: those are some of the reasons I haven't bet the

378
00:20:01,520 --> 00:20:03,159
Speaker 3: over yet. I would need a little bit of a

379
00:20:03,160 --> 00:20:06,560
Speaker 3: better price, but I think that there might be some

380
00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:10,679
Speaker 3: opportunity to back the Patriots on the spread early in

381
00:20:10,680 --> 00:20:13,159
Speaker 3: the season, but a long way to go before we

382
00:20:13,160 --> 00:20:13,560
Speaker 3: get there.

383
00:20:14,320 --> 00:20:16,639
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is definitely a team I think should be

384
00:20:16,680 --> 00:20:19,200
Speaker 1: monitored because I mean they're even at four and a

385
00:20:19,240 --> 00:20:20,800
Speaker 1: half the total. The win total is already you know,

386
00:20:20,920 --> 00:20:24,320
Speaker 1: juice to the over. But like this team, things could

387
00:20:24,320 --> 00:20:26,720
Speaker 1: go really bad too. Like you said, I mean, outside

388
00:20:26,720 --> 00:20:28,960
Speaker 1: of the rest advantages that they have, I mean, the

389
00:20:29,000 --> 00:20:33,280
Speaker 1: schedules really tough. You're you got question marks at the

390
00:20:33,280 --> 00:20:36,240
Speaker 1: most important position, you got question marks at pretty much

391
00:20:36,240 --> 00:20:39,160
Speaker 1: every everywhere on offense, and then you still have question

392
00:20:39,160 --> 00:20:42,400
Speaker 1: marks on defense. I think relatives two recent years and

393
00:20:42,480 --> 00:20:44,480
Speaker 1: even you know, question marks on the coaches have too,

394
00:20:44,560 --> 00:20:47,760
Speaker 1: let's be honest, you know, so it could go really bad,

395
00:20:47,960 --> 00:20:50,760
Speaker 1: especially in a division where all the other three teams

396
00:20:50,760 --> 00:20:53,840
Speaker 1: are you know, they look like above five hundred teams

397
00:20:53,880 --> 00:20:57,399
Speaker 1: and some of your most winnable games if you're the Patriots,

398
00:20:57,440 --> 00:21:01,000
Speaker 1: you know at Arizona that's on the road. Who do

399
00:21:01,040 --> 00:21:03,680
Speaker 1: you play? Tennessee is on the road? You know, so

400
00:21:03,880 --> 00:21:05,719
Speaker 1: it could be ugly for the Patriots.

401
00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:08,560
Speaker 3: Yea, if you want to know, all are the Patriots schedules?

402
00:21:08,600 --> 00:21:09,840
Speaker 3: I mean, not only do I not on the favorite

403
00:21:09,880 --> 00:21:13,240
Speaker 3: any games I have them, their average spread is over

404
00:21:13,400 --> 00:21:18,200
Speaker 3: six on the season. And they'll just go through if

405
00:21:18,200 --> 00:21:20,439
Speaker 3: you're bored, listen to us go through their schedule and

406
00:21:20,520 --> 00:21:24,080
Speaker 3: just look at the quarterbacks at they'll face and that's

407
00:21:24,240 --> 00:21:27,080
Speaker 3: pretty much all you need to know about how tough.

408
00:21:27,080 --> 00:21:31,080
Speaker 3: There's just like no breaks and it starts in their division.

409
00:21:31,359 --> 00:21:34,160
Speaker 3: But yeah, so nothing on the Patriots as of now.

410
00:21:34,440 --> 00:21:37,919
Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast is presented by Bett MGM. Use

411
00:21:38,000 --> 00:21:40,280
Speaker 1: bonus code Action when signing up to get up to

412
00:21:40,320 --> 00:21:43,119
Speaker 1: fifteen hundred hours back in bonus bets if your first

413
00:21:43,160 --> 00:21:52,160
Speaker 1: bet does not win. For new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan,

414
00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:56,280
Speaker 1: New Jersey, and North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, at Virginia,

415
00:21:56,320 --> 00:22:00,639
Speaker 1: West Virginia, and Wyoming. Terms and conditions apply. Must be

416
00:22:00,720 --> 00:22:03,560
Speaker 1: twenty one or older. Again, when problem call one eight

417
00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:04,760
Speaker 1: hundred gambler.

418
00:22:06,400 --> 00:22:09,000
Speaker 2: With Father's Day right around the corner, what can you

419
00:22:09,040 --> 00:22:11,520
Speaker 2: give the man who has everything? You give him a

420
00:22:11,520 --> 00:22:15,399
Speaker 2: winning bat, But since those can't be guaranteed, give him

421
00:22:15,400 --> 00:22:19,200
Speaker 2: an experience he'll never forget. You give him Omaha Steaks,

422
00:22:19,480 --> 00:22:22,560
Speaker 2: because a world class dad deserves a world class steak.

423
00:22:23,240 --> 00:22:26,159
Speaker 2: The Father's Day experts at Omaha Steaks have made it

424
00:22:26,240 --> 00:22:28,760
Speaker 2: easy to put a smile on your old man's face

425
00:22:28,800 --> 00:22:32,600
Speaker 2: this summer with hands selected gift packages starting at just

426
00:22:32,680 --> 00:22:36,000
Speaker 2: eighty nine bucks. Just go to Omaha Steaks dot com

427
00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:39,560
Speaker 2: and use promo code action a checkout for an additional

428
00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:43,280
Speaker 2: discount when you shop gore mate gift packages for Father's Day.

429
00:22:43,640 --> 00:22:49,200
Speaker 2: With Omaha Steaks, the possibilities are endless, endless flavor, endless variety,

430
00:22:49,400 --> 00:22:53,359
Speaker 2: and endless value. Truly, they have perfected more than steak,

431
00:22:53,640 --> 00:22:56,919
Speaker 2: and your dad is guaranteed to love everybody. Go to

432
00:22:56,960 --> 00:23:00,399
Speaker 2: Omaha Steaks dot com and use promo code action to

433
00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:04,639
Speaker 2: get an exclusive savings offer. Shop for unforgettable gifts that

434
00:23:04,680 --> 00:23:08,120
Speaker 2: are guaranteed to make Dad's day. Because if there's one

435
00:23:08,160 --> 00:23:11,720
Speaker 2: thing Omaha Steaks now, it's that Dad's love Steak. That's

436
00:23:11,800 --> 00:23:16,159
Speaker 2: Omaha Steaks dot Com Promo code action at checkout to

437
00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:21,920
Speaker 2: save on exclusive packages starting at just eighty nine dollars.

438
00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:25,399
Speaker 1: I would go to the AFC North Baltimore projected as

439
00:23:25,480 --> 00:23:28,080
Speaker 1: the division leader eleven and a half wins at bet

440
00:23:28,200 --> 00:23:31,360
Speaker 1: MGM with the wind total juice to the under at

441
00:23:31,359 --> 00:23:34,719
Speaker 1: minus one sixty the overs plus one thirty. They do

442
00:23:34,800 --> 00:23:38,000
Speaker 1: have a pretty good edge in terms of net rest

443
00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:40,640
Speaker 1: days the tops the big number one, number one, Yeah,

444
00:23:40,720 --> 00:23:44,159
Speaker 1: plus sixteen. They have five games that were resting their opponents.

445
00:23:44,280 --> 00:23:45,680
Speaker 1: They do have one of those three games the ten

446
00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:49,520
Speaker 1: weeks stretches. But you know, still, I think some question

447
00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:53,439
Speaker 1: marks at the cornerback position. This is your squad usually

448
00:23:53,520 --> 00:23:55,720
Speaker 1: are very dialed in on them, and I know you're

449
00:23:55,760 --> 00:23:59,720
Speaker 1: actually leaning toward fading them, So talk about that.

450
00:24:01,000 --> 00:24:05,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, my favorite AFC wind total as of now is

451
00:24:05,080 --> 00:24:12,280
Speaker 3: Baltimore under. You know, I project them at what ten

452
00:24:12,440 --> 00:24:16,720
Speaker 3: three ish, So I show value on this under and

453
00:24:16,800 --> 00:24:20,639
Speaker 3: I have a lot more questions this year than I

454
00:24:20,640 --> 00:24:27,320
Speaker 3: did last offensive line in particular, there are many questions there.

455
00:24:27,840 --> 00:24:31,600
Speaker 3: The loss of McDonald is massive just on a weekly

456
00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:34,919
Speaker 3: basis what he did from a game planning and scheming perspective,

457
00:24:35,320 --> 00:24:37,479
Speaker 3: and then just on you know, we'll talk about this

458
00:24:37,520 --> 00:24:40,440
Speaker 3: with the Chargers and some of the things that I

459
00:24:40,480 --> 00:24:44,359
Speaker 3: think Minter can do. But they also have some key lost,

460
00:24:44,480 --> 00:24:47,679
Speaker 3: key pieces that they lost on defense. Clowney was so

461
00:24:47,840 --> 00:24:51,280
Speaker 3: underrated what he did for that defense last year. Still

462
00:24:51,280 --> 00:24:54,560
Speaker 3: have to figure out the corner rotation. I also think

463
00:24:54,640 --> 00:24:58,439
Speaker 3: year two of Monken is not a positive. Like I

464
00:24:58,480 --> 00:25:00,720
Speaker 3: talked about this last year, one of the reasons that

465
00:25:00,800 --> 00:25:03,840
Speaker 3: I like the Ravens and like the win total over

466
00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:09,320
Speaker 3: was the coordinator hires and I thought Mounkin with Lamar

467
00:25:09,720 --> 00:25:11,880
Speaker 3: right talked about this one of the reasons I bet

468
00:25:11,920 --> 00:25:15,240
Speaker 3: Lamar MVP. It's like you have that surprise factor of Okay,

469
00:25:15,240 --> 00:25:17,840
Speaker 3: what's this offense going to look like? With Lamar Jackson

470
00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:20,679
Speaker 3: Leak hasn't really seen it. Well, you don't really have

471
00:25:20,760 --> 00:25:25,400
Speaker 3: that advantage anymore. They do have the biggest net rest advantage,

472
00:25:25,440 --> 00:25:27,760
Speaker 3: like you said, but it is still a tough schedule.

473
00:25:28,480 --> 00:25:34,640
Speaker 3: I have them with the sixth hardest schedule in the NFL.

474
00:25:35,320 --> 00:25:39,119
Speaker 3: So yeah, I have a lot of questions about this team.

475
00:25:39,520 --> 00:25:43,480
Speaker 3: They're still really good, and you gotta just by the way.

476
00:25:43,480 --> 00:25:45,440
Speaker 3: There's gonna be a time when Justin Tucker also isn't

477
00:25:45,480 --> 00:25:49,360
Speaker 3: as elite and automatic as he always is from distance.

478
00:25:50,080 --> 00:25:53,920
Speaker 3: Pains me to say that, but this organization is usually good.

479
00:25:53,960 --> 00:25:56,800
Speaker 3: I did like their draft, especially for the future. But

480
00:25:58,040 --> 00:26:01,880
Speaker 3: to me, this is more of a nine or ten

481
00:26:01,920 --> 00:26:04,800
Speaker 3: win team than an eleven or twelve win team. And

482
00:26:06,440 --> 00:26:08,840
Speaker 3: what's the win total sitting out right now? The eleven

483
00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:09,240
Speaker 3: and a half?

484
00:26:09,240 --> 00:26:11,200
Speaker 1: But have we used to the under so it minus

485
00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:12,639
Speaker 1: won sixty eleven?

486
00:26:12,680 --> 00:26:14,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think I think there's a minus one forty

487
00:26:14,720 --> 00:26:17,760
Speaker 3: out there, eleven and a half if you shop around.

488
00:26:17,840 --> 00:26:22,600
Speaker 3: I like that. I think like ten eleven is this

489
00:26:22,640 --> 00:26:25,399
Speaker 3: team's ceiling if you play this season out more times

490
00:26:25,400 --> 00:26:30,160
Speaker 3: than not, and the yeah, you're not going to you're

491
00:26:30,160 --> 00:26:33,400
Speaker 3: not going to benefit from you know, the Bengals injuries

492
00:26:33,480 --> 00:26:36,280
Speaker 3: that happened last year. You would assume, you know, there

493
00:26:36,359 --> 00:26:38,679
Speaker 3: was a lot of you know, they had pretty good

494
00:26:38,720 --> 00:26:42,200
Speaker 3: injury luck last year, with all things considered, after years

495
00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:45,199
Speaker 3: of not having any but that could work against them

496
00:26:45,240 --> 00:26:48,119
Speaker 3: as well. Lamar stayed healthy won the MVP previous two seasons.

497
00:26:48,160 --> 00:26:51,040
Speaker 3: He didn't the team that I'm targeting, and I mentioned

498
00:26:51,040 --> 00:26:54,920
Speaker 3: this last year. I was screaming to Bengals fans, why

499
00:26:54,960 --> 00:26:58,160
Speaker 3: do you want to win? Stop rooting? You know it's

500
00:26:58,680 --> 00:27:00,360
Speaker 3: hard to do. You wonder for your team to win.

501
00:27:00,560 --> 00:27:03,280
Speaker 3: But with Jake Browning, like Jake Browning was trying to

502
00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:06,679
Speaker 3: steal games and yelling you shouldn't have cut me like

503
00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:10,920
Speaker 3: you wanted you Burrow with a fourth place schedule, that

504
00:27:11,200 --> 00:27:14,080
Speaker 3: is what me, as a Ravens fan, was afraid of,

505
00:27:14,160 --> 00:27:16,960
Speaker 3: and that's exactly how this played out. I have Ravens

506
00:27:17,000 --> 00:27:27,200
Speaker 3: six hardest schedule, Brown's eighth, Steelers second, Bengals twenty eighth,

507
00:27:27,240 --> 00:27:30,080
Speaker 3: and they're in that same division twenty eight. This the

508
00:27:30,200 --> 00:27:36,600
Speaker 3: Bengals to me. I actually they're right in the same

509
00:27:36,640 --> 00:27:42,800
Speaker 3: ballpark as the Ravens, and I think I have as

510
00:27:42,840 --> 00:27:45,440
Speaker 3: of now. This could change, but I have the Bengals

511
00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:48,480
Speaker 3: like fractions ahead of the Ravens of down good the

512
00:27:48,520 --> 00:27:52,120
Speaker 3: Ravens quite a bit, but basically they're the same. From

513
00:27:52,119 --> 00:27:53,720
Speaker 3: a power inspect that I can get a better price

514
00:27:53,720 --> 00:27:59,040
Speaker 3: on the Bengals to win the division. So yeah, I

515
00:27:59,040 --> 00:28:02,080
Speaker 3: think that. You know, people are worried about Borrow's health.

516
00:28:02,080 --> 00:28:04,440
Speaker 3: I've dug into this a lot. I'm not I think

517
00:28:04,440 --> 00:28:08,159
Speaker 3: they're fine there. And I really they fixed the safety position.

518
00:28:08,920 --> 00:28:11,800
Speaker 3: You got Bell back, you added Geno Stone, who I'm

519
00:28:11,840 --> 00:28:14,879
Speaker 3: a big fan of, one of another. One of the

520
00:28:14,920 --> 00:28:18,560
Speaker 3: losses on the Ravens defense, Hill and Scott were just

521
00:28:18,560 --> 00:28:21,600
Speaker 3: a disaster to start the year last year. And I think,

522
00:28:21,840 --> 00:28:27,320
Speaker 3: you know, in Romo's defense, the safety position is so big,

523
00:28:27,640 --> 00:28:30,920
Speaker 3: and we saw that when you know, he lost their

524
00:28:30,960 --> 00:28:33,439
Speaker 3: two stalwarts on the back end. Bring one back at

525
00:28:33,520 --> 00:28:37,080
Speaker 3: Geno Stone. And as a result, we saw the linebackers

526
00:28:37,119 --> 00:28:41,880
Speaker 3: drop off last year, we saw cornerback play communication. Just so,

527
00:28:41,960 --> 00:28:45,520
Speaker 3: I think shoring up the safety position is going to

528
00:28:45,560 --> 00:28:48,920
Speaker 3: help that entire defense. It's so key to what aniromo

529
00:28:49,040 --> 00:28:52,520
Speaker 3: wants to do. The losing reader does hurt. I will

530
00:28:52,560 --> 00:28:56,360
Speaker 3: say that DJ reader in the middle on the defensive line.

531
00:28:56,600 --> 00:29:01,760
Speaker 3: But I trust Burrow with this easy schedule and questions

532
00:29:02,160 --> 00:29:03,800
Speaker 3: that I have with some of the other teams in

533
00:29:03,800 --> 00:29:06,840
Speaker 3: the division. I like the Bengals to win the division.

534
00:29:07,120 --> 00:29:09,560
Speaker 3: And h if you want to back Joey b for

535
00:29:10,880 --> 00:29:14,280
Speaker 3: a longer shot Super Bowl future, Like if I had

536
00:29:14,280 --> 00:29:19,000
Speaker 3: a Super Bowl futures right now, you know it's I went.

537
00:29:19,320 --> 00:29:22,400
Speaker 3: I might get a better price on the thing is

538
00:29:22,440 --> 00:29:26,720
Speaker 3: that the Bengals, they start Patriots Chiefs, you can get

539
00:29:26,720 --> 00:29:30,840
Speaker 3: the you can get the Chiefs early Washington at home Carolina,

540
00:29:31,280 --> 00:29:33,959
Speaker 3: then they get Baltimore at home. Then the Giants, like

541
00:29:34,000 --> 00:29:36,720
Speaker 3: they could start really hot. So this might be the

542
00:29:36,720 --> 00:29:41,960
Speaker 3: best price that you get on the Bengals. Super long

543
00:29:42,040 --> 00:29:48,280
Speaker 3: shot would be the Browns. And the only reason I

544
00:29:48,360 --> 00:29:50,720
Speaker 3: say that is you're just betting on if you want to,

545
00:29:50,760 --> 00:29:55,080
Speaker 3: if you're just betting on Deshaun Watson becoming Deshaun Watson

546
00:29:55,120 --> 00:29:58,960
Speaker 3: of years ago. I personally think I've seen enough from

547
00:29:59,040 --> 00:30:01,480
Speaker 3: last year and don't think that that upside is there

548
00:30:01,680 --> 00:30:04,640
Speaker 3: any longer. But who am I to say that it's not.

549
00:30:05,800 --> 00:30:08,000
Speaker 3: And you can get a much better price on the Browns.

550
00:30:08,000 --> 00:30:12,560
Speaker 3: That defense is still really good. But I might consider

551
00:30:12,560 --> 00:30:15,480
Speaker 3: Bengals Super Bowl. But I do like them to win

552
00:30:15,560 --> 00:30:17,240
Speaker 3: the division at better odds than the Ravens.

553
00:30:17,720 --> 00:30:20,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, so the Bengals are plus one sixty five to

554
00:30:20,720 --> 00:30:23,440
Speaker 1: win the division at bet MGM. The Ravens are plus

555
00:30:23,520 --> 00:30:26,160
Speaker 1: one twenty five. The only issue with the Bengals like

556
00:30:26,200 --> 00:30:28,200
Speaker 1: they have a much easier schedule. I wonder if the

557
00:30:28,280 --> 00:30:31,240
Speaker 1: NFL kind of factored this in because it seems like,

558
00:30:31,360 --> 00:30:33,360
Speaker 1: you know, there's a lot of wonkiness with the schedule

559
00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:36,200
Speaker 1: and the rest and like a lot of inequality in

560
00:30:36,200 --> 00:30:38,000
Speaker 1: that sense this year more than a year's past. But

561
00:30:38,960 --> 00:30:41,640
Speaker 1: it seems like teams with easier schedules got kind of

562
00:30:41,640 --> 00:30:44,240
Speaker 1: screwed a little more with the rest situation. So the Bengals,

563
00:30:44,480 --> 00:30:47,560
Speaker 1: you know, they have a minus two net rest edge.

564
00:30:47,600 --> 00:30:50,000
Speaker 1: They have three short week road games. They're one of

565
00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:53,400
Speaker 1: the six teams with a negated bye week as well,

566
00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:56,040
Speaker 1: so and they have a three one of the teams

567
00:30:56,040 --> 00:30:58,240
Speaker 1: with the three game and ten day stretch. But you know,

568
00:30:58,280 --> 00:31:01,640
Speaker 1: they should be able if Joe as healthy. Like you said,

569
00:31:02,000 --> 00:31:05,600
Speaker 1: this team is I think right there with the Ravens. Uh,

570
00:31:05,640 --> 00:31:08,520
Speaker 1: you know, the cornerback situation maybe a little maybe some

571
00:31:08,600 --> 00:31:11,680
Speaker 1: questions there, but safety they got a lot better. They

572
00:31:11,800 --> 00:31:15,960
Speaker 1: have a good coordinator, you know, Callahan Weaves, but it's

573
00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:18,880
Speaker 1: you know, Taylor is kind of more of the offensive

574
00:31:19,120 --> 00:31:22,440
Speaker 1: guy there, so he's still there. So this team is. Yeah,

575
00:31:22,480 --> 00:31:24,480
Speaker 1: it's pretty set up, and like you said, you're getting

576
00:31:24,480 --> 00:31:26,880
Speaker 1: a lot better price. So I like the state in

577
00:31:26,960 --> 00:31:30,280
Speaker 1: the Ravens for the Bengals as well. And the Bengals

578
00:31:30,320 --> 00:31:33,080
Speaker 1: ten and a half win is their win total minus

579
00:31:33,080 --> 00:31:36,960
Speaker 1: won twenty five to the over Cleveland, who you just mentioned.

580
00:31:36,760 --> 00:31:39,400
Speaker 3: Eight might Bengals fans. Bengals fans, you got you, you

581
00:31:39,520 --> 00:31:41,360
Speaker 3: might want to get it this year. You have a

582
00:31:41,520 --> 00:31:45,880
Speaker 3: chance because it's you heard all the offseason stuff. It's

583
00:31:45,880 --> 00:31:48,960
Speaker 3: gonna be hard to keep this core together.

584
00:31:50,240 --> 00:31:53,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, Cleveland, you mentioned them. Eight and a half is

585
00:31:53,960 --> 00:31:55,920
Speaker 1: their win total minus won twenty five juice to the

586
00:31:55,960 --> 00:32:00,200
Speaker 1: over at bet mgm uh, I mean, yeah, it's talk

587
00:32:00,200 --> 00:32:04,160
Speaker 1: a little more about this. I mean Deshaun Watson realistically,

588
00:32:04,200 --> 00:32:06,080
Speaker 1: what is he now? Is he? Is he the guy

589
00:32:06,120 --> 00:32:07,640
Speaker 1: we saw last year? Is he a guy that can't

590
00:32:07,640 --> 00:32:09,840
Speaker 1: even stay healthy? Like it's something because I mean some

591
00:32:09,840 --> 00:32:12,440
Speaker 1: of the injuries and the way they kind of happened

592
00:32:12,480 --> 00:32:14,480
Speaker 1: last year with you know, they're just like all this

593
00:32:14,680 --> 00:32:17,320
Speaker 1: mystery and he was throwing? Is he not throwing all

594
00:32:17,320 --> 00:32:19,720
Speaker 1: of a sudden he can't. It's almost it almost seems

595
00:32:19,720 --> 00:32:22,320
Speaker 1: like a Kawhi Leonard situation, except without you know, when

596
00:32:22,400 --> 00:32:25,920
Speaker 1: Kawai plays, he's usually a beast, where it's like when

597
00:32:25,960 --> 00:32:28,880
Speaker 1: Deshaun played, he wasn't that great. So like they do

598
00:32:28,920 --> 00:32:30,920
Speaker 1: have Jameis Winston, but I mean, I don't think he

599
00:32:30,960 --> 00:32:33,040
Speaker 1: really adds anything. I don't think he even Like what

600
00:32:33,280 --> 00:32:35,440
Speaker 1: happened with Joe Flacco, I think that was kind of

601
00:32:35,480 --> 00:32:37,440
Speaker 1: an outlier. I don't think you can expect a backup

602
00:32:37,480 --> 00:32:39,040
Speaker 1: to come in and do that, nor can you expect

603
00:32:39,120 --> 00:32:40,760
Speaker 1: Joe Flacco to go do that on the coats again.

604
00:32:40,840 --> 00:32:45,760
Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean outside of this defense, you know what,

605
00:32:46,240 --> 00:32:49,600
Speaker 1: just like where do you realistically see Deshaun is it?

606
00:32:49,640 --> 00:32:51,560
Speaker 1: And how many games do you do you see him

607
00:32:52,480 --> 00:32:53,680
Speaker 1: being able to start this year?

608
00:32:55,080 --> 00:32:57,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean the d should still be elite, led

609
00:32:57,480 --> 00:33:01,840
Speaker 3: by that defensive line, great corner group, but you know,

610
00:33:01,960 --> 00:33:07,959
Speaker 3: defenses are there's a lot of variants, a lot of alatility.

611
00:33:08,080 --> 00:33:10,520
Speaker 3: Are they going to be able to play at that

612
00:33:10,560 --> 00:33:12,360
Speaker 3: high level? I believe they went six and two in

613
00:33:12,400 --> 00:33:14,720
Speaker 3: one possession games last year, they won a ton of

614
00:33:14,760 --> 00:33:17,520
Speaker 3: close games. There could be some aggression on that front

615
00:33:17,560 --> 00:33:22,120
Speaker 3: as well. You know, they should have a healthier offensive

616
00:33:22,120 --> 00:33:23,480
Speaker 3: line which should help, and they got a lot of

617
00:33:23,520 --> 00:33:26,200
Speaker 3: depth there They did lose Calahan, which is worth mentioning.

618
00:33:26,320 --> 00:33:31,440
Speaker 3: They added Jerry Judy, Yeah you got you also a Chubb.

619
00:33:31,640 --> 00:33:34,720
Speaker 3: How healthy is Chubb going to be and is he

620
00:33:34,800 --> 00:33:37,320
Speaker 3: going to be the same back? But yeah, I you know,

621
00:33:37,400 --> 00:33:41,560
Speaker 3: just digging into the numbers, like the sample size isn't great,

622
00:33:41,800 --> 00:33:45,720
Speaker 3: but and just pairing that with my with the eye test,

623
00:33:45,800 --> 00:33:48,600
Speaker 3: I just don't see it with Watson. And that is

624
00:33:48,640 --> 00:33:54,120
Speaker 3: what the Browns need to unlock their potential in the

625
00:33:54,160 --> 00:33:59,600
Speaker 3: a f C. Is they need Watson two. You know,

626
00:34:00,160 --> 00:34:02,160
Speaker 3: have to get back to the same level that he was.

627
00:34:02,360 --> 00:34:06,040
Speaker 3: But you got you have to be a top No,

628
00:34:06,200 --> 00:34:10,200
Speaker 3: we're talking to win this division, to win the AFC,

629
00:34:10,760 --> 00:34:14,000
Speaker 3: to win a super Bowl, you have to be a

630
00:34:14,120 --> 00:34:20,640
Speaker 3: top eight would you say eight quarterback in the NFL? Yeah,

631
00:34:20,680 --> 00:34:25,000
Speaker 3: and uh, I don't. I don't see it now. It

632
00:34:25,080 --> 00:34:27,839
Speaker 3: could prove me wrong, but I'm not willing to put

633
00:34:27,880 --> 00:34:31,600
Speaker 3: my money there. And I think that's basically what this

634
00:34:31,680 --> 00:34:35,600
Speaker 3: comes down to with the Browns. I projected around nine wins,

635
00:34:36,120 --> 00:34:40,640
Speaker 3: so numbers slightly into the over I wouldn't you know,

636
00:34:40,680 --> 00:34:42,160
Speaker 3: if someone wants to take a flyer in the Super Bowl,

637
00:34:42,200 --> 00:34:44,040
Speaker 3: that's the that's the reason you're just betting on the

638
00:34:44,080 --> 00:34:47,839
Speaker 3: upside of Watson, which I don't hate because there's other

639
00:34:48,160 --> 00:34:52,640
Speaker 3: pieces in place. I do like Stefanski, but I just

640
00:34:52,680 --> 00:34:55,960
Speaker 3: personally don't see it, and it's quarterbackly basically would have

641
00:34:56,000 --> 00:34:58,600
Speaker 3: poil us down to I'd rather invest in Burrow just to.

642
00:34:58,600 --> 00:35:02,319
Speaker 1: Put some numbers behind it. Deshaun Watson. You know, in

643
00:35:02,360 --> 00:35:05,319
Speaker 1: his years with the and again much larger sample side,

644
00:35:05,320 --> 00:35:07,400
Speaker 1: he started fifty three games with the Texans, only twelve

645
00:35:07,400 --> 00:35:11,080
Speaker 1: with the Browns. But as completion percentage with Houston sixty

646
00:35:11,120 --> 00:35:14,560
Speaker 1: seven point eight, it drops to fifty nine eight with Cleveland.

647
00:35:15,160 --> 00:35:17,799
Speaker 1: His touchdown rate goes from five point nine to four

648
00:35:17,840 --> 00:35:21,239
Speaker 1: point one, his interception rate increases from two point one

649
00:35:21,320 --> 00:35:23,239
Speaker 1: to two point six. His passer rating was one oh

650
00:35:23,239 --> 00:35:26,360
Speaker 1: four and a half with the Texans eighty one point

651
00:35:26,440 --> 00:35:29,239
Speaker 1: seven with the Browns. So you can look at it

652
00:35:29,200 --> 00:35:29,799
Speaker 1: you way, if.

653
00:35:29,719 --> 00:35:31,920
Speaker 3: You look into like a lot of the advanced metrics too,

654
00:35:31,960 --> 00:35:34,520
Speaker 3: like just catchable balls and some of the accuracy stuff,

655
00:35:34,520 --> 00:35:35,960
Speaker 3: they're all fell off the cliff.

656
00:35:36,560 --> 00:35:38,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, and he did go five and one thanks to

657
00:35:38,600 --> 00:35:40,600
Speaker 1: that defense with them last year, eight and four in

658
00:35:40,600 --> 00:35:43,080
Speaker 1: his two years with Cleveland, So there is some upside there. Too,

659
00:35:43,200 --> 00:35:45,600
Speaker 1: like you said, so, yeah, I think it's one of

660
00:35:45,640 --> 00:35:47,640
Speaker 1: those situations where I don't want to touch their win total

661
00:35:48,239 --> 00:35:50,160
Speaker 1: if you are a believer in Watson. I don't think

662
00:35:50,160 --> 00:35:52,080
Speaker 1: I'm there yet, but if you are a believer, it's

663
00:35:52,080 --> 00:35:56,960
Speaker 1: worth mentioning that their division ods are plus five fifty.

664
00:35:57,120 --> 00:35:59,719
Speaker 1: So you know, if Watson is playing well and you

665
00:35:59,800 --> 00:36:01,479
Speaker 1: know they we're able to go five and one games

666
00:36:01,480 --> 00:36:03,520
Speaker 1: he started last year with that defense. If that defense

667
00:36:03,560 --> 00:36:06,439
Speaker 1: continues to play well, you know they'll have a much

668
00:36:06,440 --> 00:36:08,799
Speaker 1: better chance than than the listed odds for that too.

669
00:36:08,880 --> 00:36:11,720
Speaker 1: So something to keep in mind with them there as well,

670
00:36:12,480 --> 00:36:14,600
Speaker 1: and the head in Pittsburgh. I mean every year, I

671
00:36:14,600 --> 00:36:17,040
Speaker 1: feel like if the question is is this the year

672
00:36:17,040 --> 00:36:19,160
Speaker 1: they kind of failed to crack that that five hundred mark.

673
00:36:19,200 --> 00:36:21,640
Speaker 1: There win total was seven and a half juice to

674
00:36:21,719 --> 00:36:25,480
Speaker 1: the over at minus one seventy five. Russell Wilson was

675
00:36:25,520 --> 00:36:28,720
Speaker 1: twenty second in QBR. Last year Justin Stields was twenty fourth.

676
00:36:28,880 --> 00:36:30,600
Speaker 1: You know now that do they even have enough at

677
00:36:30,600 --> 00:36:33,879
Speaker 1: wide receiver with you know, Pickens is essentially your number one,

678
00:36:33,920 --> 00:36:35,919
Speaker 1: but he's you can take him out of games at points,

679
00:36:35,920 --> 00:36:38,720
Speaker 1: even though he can have some dominant games Deontay Johnson's gone.

680
00:36:39,800 --> 00:36:41,640
Speaker 1: So what are your thoughts on this Steeler team, which

681
00:36:41,760 --> 00:36:46,399
Speaker 1: Russell Wilson apparently Lockton is a starter at for Week

682
00:36:46,480 --> 00:36:49,719
Speaker 1: one at least, that's what Tomin says. Who knows, you

683
00:36:49,760 --> 00:36:51,600
Speaker 1: know what happens between now and then, But what are

684
00:36:51,640 --> 00:36:54,439
Speaker 1: your thoughts with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields leading this

685
00:36:54,440 --> 00:36:55,279
Speaker 1: this Pittsburgh team.

686
00:36:56,600 --> 00:36:58,759
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, look, I project the Steelers. I think

687
00:36:58,760 --> 00:37:01,160
Speaker 3: you can find like a under eight and a half

688
00:37:01,239 --> 00:37:09,200
Speaker 3: Juice Tavy, I project them closer to seven, right just

689
00:37:09,239 --> 00:37:13,960
Speaker 3: below seven and a half. But like I tried this

690
00:37:14,000 --> 00:37:16,520
Speaker 3: one time in the past six years, betting the Steelers

691
00:37:16,600 --> 00:37:20,160
Speaker 3: under Yeah, and that was that was that was it

692
00:37:20,239 --> 00:37:22,160
Speaker 3: for me. Tom will just gonna win a couple of

693
00:37:22,160 --> 00:37:26,560
Speaker 3: games that he that he shouldn't and like I, why

694
00:37:26,640 --> 00:37:29,600
Speaker 3: am I going to bet against that? So they'll probably

695
00:37:29,600 --> 00:37:31,719
Speaker 3: find it will probably come down to the probably the

696
00:37:32,200 --> 00:37:34,320
Speaker 3: what will happen is they'll play the Bengals. The Bengals

697
00:37:34,680 --> 00:37:38,239
Speaker 3: everything locked up in the finale and the Steelers will

698
00:37:38,280 --> 00:37:43,080
Speaker 3: beat eight and eight and then they'll beat uh the

699
00:37:43,120 --> 00:37:45,600
Speaker 3: Bengals to win nine games. So my numbers lean under.

700
00:37:45,640 --> 00:37:47,520
Speaker 3: I mean, look, I think you had to do like

701
00:37:47,640 --> 00:37:50,560
Speaker 3: signing Russ was smart, Like you're not paying them, right,

702
00:37:50,600 --> 00:37:56,319
Speaker 3: I don't think they're paying them anything. Yeah, so you know,

703
00:37:56,920 --> 00:37:58,920
Speaker 3: why not take a shot, you know, you bring in

704
00:37:59,000 --> 00:38:04,359
Speaker 3: fields for some insurance and some depth. It obviously wasn't

705
00:38:04,400 --> 00:38:08,200
Speaker 3: working out Picket, so I agree with moving on and

706
00:38:08,239 --> 00:38:12,040
Speaker 3: who cares about Mason Rudolph, But I still do have

707
00:38:12,760 --> 00:38:17,600
Speaker 3: questions about this roster. The offensive line to me, still

708
00:38:17,680 --> 00:38:21,360
Speaker 3: isn't set wide receiver depth, specifically in the slot slot corner.

709
00:38:21,719 --> 00:38:24,680
Speaker 3: There's definitely still some holes. And at the end of

710
00:38:24,680 --> 00:38:28,560
Speaker 3: the day, Russell Wilson's washed, Like, come on, and if

711
00:38:28,560 --> 00:38:30,719
Speaker 3: you're gonna have one of the most underrated parts of

712
00:38:30,760 --> 00:38:34,440
Speaker 3: the Broncos last year is that their offensive line. It's

713
00:38:34,480 --> 00:38:39,200
Speaker 3: pretty good, and you know that the Broncos have a

714
00:38:39,239 --> 00:38:43,600
Speaker 3: pretty underrated offensive line all things considered. So now you're

715
00:38:43,640 --> 00:38:49,400
Speaker 3: getting Russ another year. The offensive line has question marks.

716
00:38:50,600 --> 00:38:55,920
Speaker 3: You're in a tough division in the AFC so and

717
00:38:55,960 --> 00:39:01,760
Speaker 3: you have the hardest schedule in the NFL. So that's

718
00:39:02,160 --> 00:39:04,600
Speaker 3: actually having them with the second artist I have who

719
00:39:04,640 --> 00:39:07,319
Speaker 3: about that? For New England with the artists, so all

720
00:39:07,320 --> 00:39:09,880
Speaker 3: of those things, it's it's hard for me, I know,

721
00:39:10,120 --> 00:39:12,920
Speaker 3: Tomlin does just he's just gonna win a couple of

722
00:39:12,920 --> 00:39:17,239
Speaker 3: games that he shouldn't. But my numbers say under, My

723
00:39:17,320 --> 00:39:21,000
Speaker 3: gut says under. But I'm just not betting it. I'll

724
00:39:21,000 --> 00:39:23,840
Speaker 3: look for the classic Tomlin spots. Like looking at the schedule,

725
00:39:23,920 --> 00:39:29,120
Speaker 3: Let's see home against Dallas Week five. I have them

726
00:39:29,160 --> 00:39:31,200
Speaker 3: as an underdog in that game. They'll probably win that game.

727
00:39:32,880 --> 00:39:36,200
Speaker 3: The Jets, after they beat the Bills at home, go

728
00:39:36,239 --> 00:39:41,120
Speaker 3: to Pittsburgh, so I have the Steelers is a small

729
00:39:41,280 --> 00:39:43,440
Speaker 3: home dog, but they probably win that game. I mean,

730
00:39:43,440 --> 00:39:45,280
Speaker 3: this is just Tomlin spots. I'd rather bet the Tomlin

731
00:39:45,280 --> 00:39:49,239
Speaker 3: spots that we end up stealing and they'll beat the

732
00:39:49,239 --> 00:39:51,439
Speaker 3: whole bit. They'll probably beat the Raids, theyll probably still

733
00:39:51,480 --> 00:39:53,840
Speaker 3: with the Ravens. They'll probably be a disgusting tie in

734
00:39:53,880 --> 00:39:54,279
Speaker 3: there too.

735
00:39:54,840 --> 00:39:57,000
Speaker 1: So maybe he gets to five hundreds, win eight games,

736
00:39:57,040 --> 00:39:59,320
Speaker 1: go go up half over that seven and a half

737
00:39:59,440 --> 00:40:02,200
Speaker 1: and go like eight eight and one, and then five

738
00:40:02,280 --> 00:40:05,120
Speaker 1: hundred will be intact, and there'll be a disgusting tie

739
00:40:05,120 --> 00:40:07,160
Speaker 1: somewhere in there that will piss off their fans and

740
00:40:07,239 --> 00:40:09,400
Speaker 1: fans of like three other fan bases because they'll probably

741
00:40:09,400 --> 00:40:11,120
Speaker 1: in pact the AFC Pray playoff first.

742
00:40:11,920 --> 00:40:15,360
Speaker 3: Yep. So yeah, numbers say under like gott says under,

743
00:40:15,360 --> 00:40:17,480
Speaker 3: but it's Tomlin and they'll just win a couple of

744
00:40:17,480 --> 00:40:20,920
Speaker 3: these spots. And yeah, so no play for.

745
00:40:20,920 --> 00:40:25,600
Speaker 1: Me AFC South Texans nine and a half minus one

746
00:40:25,719 --> 00:40:29,720
Speaker 1: forty five. I mean over on that. You know the Texans,

747
00:40:29,719 --> 00:40:31,839
Speaker 1: I mean they still have holes, are still far from

748
00:40:31,880 --> 00:40:34,640
Speaker 1: a perfect team or like a week team, but I

749
00:40:34,680 --> 00:40:37,680
Speaker 1: do think they have that ceiling With CJ. Stroud, you know,

750
00:40:37,719 --> 00:40:40,840
Speaker 1: they have a plus seven net rest edge four games

751
00:40:40,840 --> 00:40:43,640
Speaker 1: with more rest than their opponents. You know, they did

752
00:40:43,640 --> 00:40:45,799
Speaker 1: have some big signings, you know, Digs on one side

753
00:40:45,800 --> 00:40:48,520
Speaker 1: of the ball, Danielle Hunter on the other. You know,

754
00:40:49,120 --> 00:40:51,640
Speaker 1: Stroud did play well even when the offensive line was

755
00:40:52,280 --> 00:40:55,839
Speaker 1: not playing well, So you know, the questions about that

756
00:40:55,880 --> 00:40:57,880
Speaker 1: are a little makes you feel a little better. So

757
00:40:58,440 --> 00:41:00,680
Speaker 1: can the Texas get to ten wins this year? I

758
00:41:00,719 --> 00:41:03,000
Speaker 1: think so, But I think they're also going to be

759
00:41:03,040 --> 00:41:05,160
Speaker 1: a pretty hyped up team, So I hate kind of

760
00:41:06,320 --> 00:41:09,719
Speaker 1: betting into that. But I'm not really impressed with as

761
00:41:09,719 --> 00:41:11,239
Speaker 1: it seems like every year. I'm not really impressed with

762
00:41:11,280 --> 00:41:13,560
Speaker 1: the rest of this division. But what are your thoughts

763
00:41:13,600 --> 00:41:16,440
Speaker 1: on a Houston Texas entering year two of C. J. Shroud.

764
00:41:17,360 --> 00:41:20,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, I look, this is the Texans are doing the

765
00:41:20,520 --> 00:41:23,960
Speaker 3: right things. You have what I think is the top

766
00:41:24,040 --> 00:41:27,520
Speaker 3: five quarterback in the NFL on a rookie deal. You

767
00:41:27,640 --> 00:41:30,560
Speaker 3: go all in, you go get digs. You know they

768
00:41:30,600 --> 00:41:35,000
Speaker 3: added Hunter Potokasi Autrey Shay here on the defensive end,

769
00:41:35,000 --> 00:41:36,560
Speaker 3: you know you brought a mix in and running back.

770
00:41:37,600 --> 00:41:41,040
Speaker 3: The intier offensive line is still a question. So I'm

771
00:41:41,160 --> 00:41:43,960
Speaker 3: very curious see how this all shakes out, Like does

772
00:41:44,520 --> 00:41:47,320
Speaker 3: Howard end up moving the left guard? And if Fisher

773
00:41:47,320 --> 00:41:49,319
Speaker 3: can play right tackle. I don't know if he'll be

774
00:41:49,360 --> 00:41:53,279
Speaker 3: able to right away, but you know, if he is,

775
00:41:54,040 --> 00:41:56,480
Speaker 3: that might be your best bet. But the interior of

776
00:41:56,520 --> 00:41:59,160
Speaker 3: the offensive line, depending on all these moving parts now

777
00:41:59,160 --> 00:42:03,719
Speaker 3: it shakes out, is still question. I think the biggest upside,

778
00:42:04,280 --> 00:42:06,759
Speaker 3: you know, maybe the key to this team because look

779
00:42:07,440 --> 00:42:10,200
Speaker 3: I project them right around nine and a half ish.

780
00:42:10,320 --> 00:42:12,680
Speaker 3: But love the upside. Don't hate this is you're on

781
00:42:12,760 --> 00:42:14,719
Speaker 3: a bet on Stroud, Like, I'm not betting against Stroud,

782
00:42:14,840 --> 00:42:17,120
Speaker 3: even know that I show this is nine this division,

783
00:42:17,120 --> 00:42:20,160
Speaker 3: I'm not. I wouldn't bet the under. And if you

784
00:42:20,160 --> 00:42:22,560
Speaker 3: want to bet a Texans Super Bowl future. They're one

785
00:42:22,560 --> 00:42:24,160
Speaker 3: of the handful of teams that I could see winning

786
00:42:24,239 --> 00:42:32,880
Speaker 3: the Super Bowl. So uh, and let's see they start Colts, Bears, Vikings, Jags,

787
00:42:32,960 --> 00:42:36,440
Speaker 3: Bills at home, Patriots like, so they could get off

788
00:42:36,480 --> 00:42:39,719
Speaker 3: to a pretty good start and then your number, that's

789
00:42:39,719 --> 00:42:41,000
Speaker 3: some one of the things that I like to look at,

790
00:42:41,000 --> 00:42:43,640
Speaker 3: like will will this be a number that I can

791
00:42:43,680 --> 00:42:47,000
Speaker 3: get more likely than not a better number during the season.

792
00:42:47,480 --> 00:42:49,680
Speaker 3: Might not be the case. With the Texans, I think,

793
00:42:49,760 --> 00:42:51,040
Speaker 3: you know, they did go seven to three and one

794
00:42:51,040 --> 00:42:52,960
Speaker 3: possession games. Their stockings is an all time high. But

795
00:42:53,000 --> 00:42:56,560
Speaker 3: sometimes it's just like the Stroud can Stroud is just

796
00:42:56,560 --> 00:43:02,000
Speaker 3: that good that it doesn't matter. The corner spot opposite Stingley,

797
00:43:02,600 --> 00:43:05,120
Speaker 3: I think is the key to their team, because I

798
00:43:05,120 --> 00:43:08,880
Speaker 3: really like Petri, you know Ward when healthy knows that

799
00:43:09,040 --> 00:43:12,960
Speaker 3: d good veteran presence back there. I believe in Stingley,

800
00:43:13,560 --> 00:43:18,400
Speaker 3: But like can Okuda, you got two bus Kudah showed

801
00:43:18,920 --> 00:43:21,640
Speaker 3: some flashes last year, but you got Alkuda and who's

802
00:43:21,640 --> 00:43:23,400
Speaker 3: the other one Henderson that they brought in.

803
00:43:26,760 --> 00:43:28,680
Speaker 1: Yep, CJ. Henderson, And then they got.

804
00:43:28,880 --> 00:43:31,200
Speaker 3: Two busts and then you know, you got Lassiter who

805
00:43:31,880 --> 00:43:35,520
Speaker 3: probably drafted probably gets the slot. But if like Okuda,

806
00:43:35,680 --> 00:43:38,040
Speaker 3: I think is probably more likely than Henderson, if he

807
00:43:38,080 --> 00:43:42,600
Speaker 3: can emerge, it's just a reliable second corner. But it's

808
00:43:42,640 --> 00:43:44,560
Speaker 3: just a huge glaring hole. And then if you have

809
00:43:44,600 --> 00:43:47,160
Speaker 3: you know, you have a Lasser in the slot, it's

810
00:43:47,160 --> 00:43:50,160
Speaker 3: just you know, it's not like you have all pro safeties.

811
00:43:51,120 --> 00:43:55,680
Speaker 3: So the secondary would still be a major concern and

812
00:43:55,760 --> 00:43:58,600
Speaker 3: probably end up holding them back from a Super Bowl.

813
00:43:59,239 --> 00:44:01,880
Speaker 3: But you know, if lasted or flashes and then just

814
00:44:01,920 --> 00:44:04,719
Speaker 3: a Kuda plays to a good number two, like it's

815
00:44:04,719 --> 00:44:09,440
Speaker 3: just just an average number two, solid not getting roasted

816
00:44:10,000 --> 00:44:11,480
Speaker 3: all the time. And you got to Sting on the

817
00:44:11,520 --> 00:44:16,440
Speaker 3: other end, the team of Super Bowl upside obviously, like

818
00:44:16,440 --> 00:44:19,600
Speaker 3: the Texans love Stroud, then we'll look to bet and

819
00:44:19,800 --> 00:44:21,040
Speaker 3: when possible during the season.

820
00:44:21,960 --> 00:44:24,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, and they're also still slightly plus money to win

821
00:44:24,440 --> 00:44:26,719
Speaker 1: the division at plus one to ten. I do think

822
00:44:26,760 --> 00:44:29,799
Speaker 1: they're clearly the best team in the division at the

823
00:44:29,880 --> 00:44:32,560
Speaker 1: Jacksonville Jaguars the number one contender. We'll get to them,

824
00:44:32,920 --> 00:44:34,520
Speaker 1: but I do want to say I think there might

825
00:44:34,560 --> 00:44:38,239
Speaker 1: be some kind of unrealized upside or intangibles going on

826
00:44:38,280 --> 00:44:40,279
Speaker 1: with the defense too. You know, Demiko ryans I think

827
00:44:40,280 --> 00:44:41,920
Speaker 1: a very good coach, and I think some of the

828
00:44:41,960 --> 00:44:44,040
Speaker 1: game plans they had down the stretch last year on

829
00:44:44,160 --> 00:44:46,879
Speaker 1: defense to kind of hide some of their weaknesses into

830
00:44:46,960 --> 00:44:50,680
Speaker 1: the playoffs, even I thought were pretty good. So I

831
00:44:50,719 --> 00:44:54,759
Speaker 1: am cautiously optimistic that this defense might outplay it, you know,

832
00:44:55,480 --> 00:44:56,640
Speaker 1: on paper rating as well.

833
00:44:56,760 --> 00:44:59,960
Speaker 3: So yeah, I do your two's year two bumps across

834
00:45:00,080 --> 00:45:05,320
Speaker 3: the board with the new head coach, both coordinators, quarterback,

835
00:45:06,160 --> 00:45:07,680
Speaker 3: all back. I think the only other teams in the

836
00:45:07,719 --> 00:45:12,319
Speaker 3: AFC that can say that are the Colts, but you

837
00:45:12,360 --> 00:45:14,919
Speaker 3: have a quarterback who didn't really play the whole year

838
00:45:14,960 --> 00:45:19,839
Speaker 3: like Stroud did. The Chiefs and I want to say

839
00:45:19,880 --> 00:45:24,000
Speaker 3: the Jets, but I'm not sure, but Rogers didn't play

840
00:45:24,160 --> 00:45:27,360
Speaker 3: all last year and Hacket as your offensive coordinator. The

841
00:45:27,400 --> 00:45:30,319
Speaker 3: teams that could say that last year, by the way,

842
00:45:30,360 --> 00:45:34,439
Speaker 3: going into last year all went over the wind totals Ravens,

843
00:45:34,880 --> 00:45:39,040
Speaker 3: Bill's Hackers, Chiefs, Steelers and forty nine.

844
00:45:39,000 --> 00:45:43,400
Speaker 1: Ers Jaguars eight and a half minus one twenty to

845
00:45:43,440 --> 00:45:47,960
Speaker 1: the over, so about even on both sides with them,

846
00:45:48,120 --> 00:45:50,400
Speaker 1: this is an eight to nine win team. To me.

847
00:45:50,640 --> 00:45:52,880
Speaker 1: They seemed like they don't seem to ever kind of

848
00:45:53,080 --> 00:45:55,600
Speaker 1: cruey get over the hump. Last year I faded them.

849
00:45:55,600 --> 00:45:58,359
Speaker 1: They seemed a little bit fragile and then their depth

850
00:45:58,440 --> 00:46:00,000
Speaker 1: issues did kind of bite them later in the year.

851
00:46:00,280 --> 00:46:02,600
Speaker 1: So my question to you, s Doug is what do

852
00:46:02,600 --> 00:46:04,840
Speaker 1: you think of the roster this year? We know Trevor Lawrence,

853
00:46:04,960 --> 00:46:07,200
Speaker 1: we know you know, you know a couple of guys

854
00:46:07,200 --> 00:46:09,200
Speaker 1: on defense, but you know, do they have enough on defense?

855
00:46:09,560 --> 00:46:12,400
Speaker 1: And you know, is this roster deep enough to truly

856
00:46:12,480 --> 00:46:14,440
Speaker 1: you know, challenge Houston first of all and make a

857
00:46:14,520 --> 00:46:15,160
Speaker 1: run in the AFC.

858
00:46:16,800 --> 00:46:19,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I don't mind the idea of just

859
00:46:19,120 --> 00:46:23,560
Speaker 3: like buying the Jags this year. We talked about last year,

860
00:46:23,600 --> 00:46:25,600
Speaker 3: like it's time to fade the Jags where they were

861
00:46:25,640 --> 00:46:33,640
Speaker 3: priced going into last year in that division, So you know,

862
00:46:33,640 --> 00:46:35,920
Speaker 3: they're kind of flying a little bit more under the radar.

863
00:46:36,040 --> 00:46:38,399
Speaker 3: They lost Ridley, but they brought in gave Davis, Mitch Morse,

864
00:46:38,440 --> 00:46:43,320
Speaker 3: that drafted Brian Thomas, who I actually like. And I

865
00:46:43,360 --> 00:46:45,799
Speaker 3: think the biggest question is can the offensive line take

866
00:46:47,680 --> 00:46:49,960
Speaker 3: a step forward? Right? You get a healthier Cleveland, you

867
00:46:49,960 --> 00:46:52,680
Speaker 3: get Harrison in the second year, Morse at center. They

868
00:46:52,840 --> 00:46:54,720
Speaker 3: really need that, and then you know you need Brian

869
00:46:54,760 --> 00:46:58,799
Speaker 3: Thomas to hit the defense. They added Armstead which helps

870
00:46:58,840 --> 00:47:02,640
Speaker 3: a bit, added Savage. Can you get anything for Mason

871
00:47:02,680 --> 00:47:05,399
Speaker 3: Smith or Jordan Jefferson on the defensive line, I think

872
00:47:05,400 --> 00:47:08,959
Speaker 3: that'll help. The secondary is still just a huge question

873
00:47:09,080 --> 00:47:13,440
Speaker 3: mark to me, so and I think that's what's gonna

874
00:47:13,719 --> 00:47:20,920
Speaker 3: hold them back. I project them let's see, obviously, I

875
00:47:20,920 --> 00:47:25,040
Speaker 3: think like a league average schedule, I project them at

876
00:47:25,080 --> 00:47:27,920
Speaker 3: around eight and a half wins, eight point seven. I

877
00:47:27,920 --> 00:47:30,080
Speaker 3: think their win total is eight and a half. I

878
00:47:30,080 --> 00:47:33,000
Speaker 3: think that the one of the ways that I would

879
00:47:33,040 --> 00:47:37,400
Speaker 3: look to bet Jacksonville is in order for them to

880
00:47:37,440 --> 00:47:42,640
Speaker 3: like be a contender win this division, you know, in

881
00:47:42,680 --> 00:47:45,279
Speaker 3: the division with Stroud and it, I think that they're

882
00:47:45,280 --> 00:47:49,200
Speaker 3: gonna have to win ten at least ten, but I

883
00:47:49,200 --> 00:47:56,359
Speaker 3: think eleven games to win this division and what would

884
00:47:56,400 --> 00:47:59,799
Speaker 3: have to happen. So for that to happen, I don't

885
00:47:59,800 --> 00:48:03,719
Speaker 3: think the defense is going to be the call and

886
00:48:03,719 --> 00:48:06,640
Speaker 3: guard with that secondary. No, they're gonna be in high

887
00:48:06,680 --> 00:48:09,480
Speaker 3: scoring games. They need the offensive line to improve with

888
00:48:09,560 --> 00:48:11,839
Speaker 3: some of those things that I just mentioned. They need

889
00:48:11,840 --> 00:48:14,680
Speaker 3: Brian Thomas to hit, and they mainly need Trevor Lawrence

890
00:48:14,719 --> 00:48:18,120
Speaker 3: have a huge year. So I've seen numbers out there

891
00:48:18,160 --> 00:48:24,279
Speaker 3: for thirty forty to one for Trevor Lawrence MVP. I

892
00:48:24,320 --> 00:48:27,160
Speaker 3: think if you believe in the Jags and believe in

893
00:48:27,160 --> 00:48:30,480
Speaker 3: like Trevor Lawrence having guys sto's a ton of potential,

894
00:48:30,600 --> 00:48:33,120
Speaker 3: very inconsistent, but if you believe in him putting it

895
00:48:33,160 --> 00:48:35,520
Speaker 3: all together and with the help of the offensive line,

896
00:48:36,239 --> 00:48:40,080
Speaker 3: this receiving corps, I think Trevor Lawrence MVP because basically

897
00:48:40,120 --> 00:48:42,840
Speaker 3: to win the MVP, now it's gonna be a quarterback.

898
00:48:44,640 --> 00:48:46,520
Speaker 3: I mean McCaffrey didn't win it last year. I mean,

899
00:48:46,560 --> 00:48:49,239
Speaker 3: how's the quarterback not gonna win it? And you gotta win,

900
00:48:50,239 --> 00:48:54,000
Speaker 3: you know, eleven ish games, ten eleven, twelve games. So

901
00:48:54,160 --> 00:48:55,720
Speaker 3: I think that's the best way to about the Jags

902
00:48:55,800 --> 00:48:58,440
Speaker 3: is Trevor Lawrence MVP, because they're gonna be in high

903
00:48:58,480 --> 00:49:02,000
Speaker 3: scoring games, shootout and in order to win the division,

904
00:49:02,040 --> 00:49:06,120
Speaker 3: in order to reach their peak. I think he has

905
00:49:06,239 --> 00:49:07,640
Speaker 3: up a huge year and they'll be in the running

906
00:49:07,680 --> 00:49:10,080
Speaker 3: if that's the case, and you're kind of buying the

907
00:49:10,080 --> 00:49:13,200
Speaker 3: bottom if he's not and he's inconsistent. Yeah, this team

908
00:49:13,239 --> 00:49:17,880
Speaker 3: wins eight or nine games, and the win totals price perfectly.

909
00:49:19,440 --> 00:49:21,600
Speaker 1: Another team of the win total eight and a half

910
00:49:21,640 --> 00:49:23,680
Speaker 1: is the Indianapolis Colts, although it's juice to the under

911
00:49:23,680 --> 00:49:26,160
Speaker 1: at minus one forty. I do like the under for

912
00:49:26,200 --> 00:49:29,200
Speaker 1: the Colts. Really impressed with what they did last year.

913
00:49:29,560 --> 00:49:31,080
Speaker 1: I think I was on the under on them as well,

914
00:49:31,120 --> 00:49:33,200
Speaker 1: so take that for what it will. I was wrong

915
00:49:33,239 --> 00:49:36,440
Speaker 1: on them last year, but this year they're coming in.

916
00:49:36,600 --> 00:49:40,560
Speaker 1: They have a bottom three net rest edge at minus

917
00:49:40,560 --> 00:49:43,520
Speaker 1: seventeen days, only one game where they have more rest

918
00:49:43,520 --> 00:49:46,439
Speaker 1: than their opponent, five games against teams with extra rest,

919
00:49:46,800 --> 00:49:49,160
Speaker 1: none versus teams on short rest. They're one of the

920
00:49:49,160 --> 00:49:52,760
Speaker 1: six teams within negated bye week. Richardson got hurt twice

921
00:49:53,000 --> 00:49:55,560
Speaker 1: in four starts. He ran ten times in the other two,

922
00:49:55,600 --> 00:49:58,160
Speaker 1: so I mean that's it's just not sustainable. I don't

923
00:49:58,160 --> 00:49:59,840
Speaker 1: think for him to get through of a season like this.

924
00:50:00,160 --> 00:50:02,960
Speaker 1: Joe Flacco great, great little run there on Cleveland, but

925
00:50:03,000 --> 00:50:07,320
Speaker 1: he's thirty nine and this roster I think is pretty solid,

926
00:50:08,000 --> 00:50:12,280
Speaker 1: but it just lacks like the true superstars I think.

927
00:50:12,360 --> 00:50:14,640
Speaker 3: So second secondary major question too.

928
00:50:14,800 --> 00:50:17,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, Juju Bruns and Dallas Flowers outside, you know, dating

929
00:50:17,840 --> 00:50:20,160
Speaker 1: with some day three picks. Kenny Moore probably your best

930
00:50:20,160 --> 00:50:23,160
Speaker 1: corner at this point, but he's thirty.

931
00:50:22,520 --> 00:50:25,080
Speaker 3: So yeah, he's on the slot. Yeahs from the two

932
00:50:25,120 --> 00:50:28,080
Speaker 3: outside corners are very very question yes.

933
00:50:28,480 --> 00:50:31,480
Speaker 1: So this to me, this is more of a This

934
00:50:31,560 --> 00:50:34,120
Speaker 1: is still more of an under five hundred team than not,

935
00:50:34,280 --> 00:50:37,120
Speaker 1: especially with you know, I think Houston taking another step forward,

936
00:50:38,239 --> 00:50:40,879
Speaker 1: and you know the Jags you know, probably have more

937
00:50:41,040 --> 00:50:42,960
Speaker 1: upside than down that we said this point and were

938
00:50:42,960 --> 00:50:45,359
Speaker 1: their price in the market. So I like the under

939
00:50:45,440 --> 00:50:47,040
Speaker 1: on Indianapolis. What do you think?

940
00:50:48,080 --> 00:50:51,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, don't mind. I mean, I'm I chose little value

941
00:50:51,080 --> 00:50:54,200
Speaker 3: numbers wise, but stay away from me. If richards it

942
00:50:54,200 --> 00:50:57,920
Speaker 3: can hit his potential. I'm out of Richardson, Truther if

943
00:50:57,960 --> 00:51:00,400
Speaker 3: you are. You know, the argument is side loves stiching.

944
00:51:00,520 --> 00:51:03,320
Speaker 3: The offensive line is still intact. He had a Mitchell

945
00:51:03,360 --> 00:51:07,280
Speaker 3: wide receiver, but I don't see it yet with Richardson,

946
00:51:07,320 --> 00:51:09,400
Speaker 3: don't have to prove it to me, and that secondary

947
00:51:09,640 --> 00:51:12,000
Speaker 3: too many question marks but not a value for me

948
00:51:12,040 --> 00:51:14,040
Speaker 3: to file on the under. But I don't hate to play,

949
00:51:14,080 --> 00:51:14,759
Speaker 3: but pass for me.

950
00:51:16,120 --> 00:51:17,920
Speaker 1: And then you got to tighten six and a half

951
00:51:18,080 --> 00:51:20,680
Speaker 1: the others used to one forty six and a half wins.

952
00:51:21,880 --> 00:51:24,279
Speaker 1: I could see this going really bad for Tennessee. I mean,

953
00:51:24,760 --> 00:51:34,080
Speaker 1: they have road games against the Dolphins, Bills, Lions, Chargers, Texans, Bear, Jaguars, Coats, Bears,

954
00:51:34,160 --> 00:51:41,000
Speaker 1: as well home games even a cakewalk you know, Jets, Packers, Bengals, Texans,

955
00:51:41,080 --> 00:51:44,399
Speaker 1: Jags at home. You still have questions at tackle even

956
00:51:44,440 --> 00:51:47,839
Speaker 1: with the high draft pick. Lots of new pieces so

957
00:51:48,080 --> 00:51:50,320
Speaker 1: they you know, some upgrades in the offense that the

958
00:51:50,320 --> 00:51:52,799
Speaker 1: skill positions, but still lots of new pieces. You put

959
00:51:52,840 --> 00:51:54,600
Speaker 1: a lot of guys. You signing a lot of guys

960
00:51:54,600 --> 00:51:57,719
Speaker 1: in free agency. Will Levis had the second worst QBR

961
00:51:58,280 --> 00:52:00,800
Speaker 1: of thirty two qualifiers, ahead of all Aly, Zach Wilson

962
00:52:00,880 --> 00:52:04,040
Speaker 1: last year. Wougier is getting older. He wasn't as good

963
00:52:04,080 --> 00:52:06,640
Speaker 1: as as he was in the past coming off that

964
00:52:06,680 --> 00:52:09,080
Speaker 1: injury last year. Kate, you know Sneid is good, but

965
00:52:09,239 --> 00:52:10,719
Speaker 1: you know Casey was going to cut bait on him.

966
00:52:10,760 --> 00:52:13,520
Speaker 1: How good is he outside of like a Spagnole scheme

967
00:52:13,560 --> 00:52:16,600
Speaker 1: That also remains to be seen. So I don also

968
00:52:16,640 --> 00:52:18,640
Speaker 1: lean under in the Titans, even though they're at six

969
00:52:18,680 --> 00:52:20,239
Speaker 1: and a half. I just think there's a lot of

970
00:52:20,239 --> 00:52:22,799
Speaker 1: downside here. But what are you thinking on Tennessee?

971
00:52:23,719 --> 00:52:27,759
Speaker 3: Yeah, I project six. A lot of questions in the

972
00:52:27,760 --> 00:52:30,360
Speaker 3: front seven two on defense outside of Simmons and Landry

973
00:52:30,680 --> 00:52:34,200
Speaker 3: Uh you know Ouzi Steen. I think they're gonna sign

974
00:52:34,280 --> 00:52:37,080
Speaker 3: Justin Simmons, which I think would be smart as safety.

975
00:52:39,160 --> 00:52:43,239
Speaker 3: So you know that there's some pieces here. On defense,

976
00:52:43,640 --> 00:52:47,440
Speaker 3: they had a pollardized. We saw how that went last

977
00:52:47,520 --> 00:52:51,120
Speaker 3: year for Dallas, Boyd and Ridley kind of. They did

978
00:52:51,239 --> 00:52:54,640
Speaker 3: upgrade their wide receiver room, which should help. Oh those

979
00:52:54,640 --> 00:52:57,880
Speaker 3: guys are getting older this but yeah, it's true, but

980
00:52:57,960 --> 00:53:01,640
Speaker 3: the offensive line still his question marks. Yeah, you gotta

981
00:53:01,640 --> 00:53:06,920
Speaker 3: rely on Latham and bringing in Cushion Berry doesn't necessarily

982
00:53:06,920 --> 00:53:08,840
Speaker 3: move the needle for me. I project them right at six.

983
00:53:11,320 --> 00:53:13,239
Speaker 3: I think I haven't favored in two games, and this

984
00:53:13,320 --> 00:53:15,600
Speaker 3: is the team last year what they went six and eleven,

985
00:53:15,760 --> 00:53:18,080
Speaker 3: and now I have them with one of the top

986
00:53:18,080 --> 00:53:23,399
Speaker 3: five hardest schedules in the NFL. Tough break for the Titans. Yeah,

987
00:53:23,520 --> 00:53:24,840
Speaker 3: lead under but passed for me.

988
00:53:25,880 --> 00:53:28,320
Speaker 1: All right, speed things up a little, AFU West. I

989
00:53:28,320 --> 00:53:29,719
Speaker 1: think the team I really want to talk about is

990
00:53:29,760 --> 00:53:32,239
Speaker 1: the Chargers, but we'll start with the Chiefs eleven and

991
00:53:32,320 --> 00:53:35,200
Speaker 1: a half. We know they're nine and two over their

992
00:53:35,200 --> 00:53:39,160
Speaker 1: win total with Andy Reid. You have some issues making

993
00:53:39,200 --> 00:53:42,360
Speaker 1: some news in the off season, but any thoughts on

994
00:53:42,400 --> 00:53:43,920
Speaker 1: the Chiefs here, eleven and a half is the win

995
00:53:44,040 --> 00:53:45,560
Speaker 1: total nine and two with Andy Reid.

996
00:53:46,880 --> 00:53:51,040
Speaker 3: Uh yeah, I mean I had the twenty first for

997
00:53:51,200 --> 00:53:54,080
Speaker 3: the twenty first ranked schedule in terms of difficulty after

998
00:53:54,200 --> 00:53:55,840
Speaker 3: winning back to back Super Bowl, so they got a

999
00:53:55,840 --> 00:54:00,960
Speaker 3: break there. I you know, there's some land mines on

1000
00:54:01,040 --> 00:54:05,160
Speaker 3: their schedule, though, it's like Ravens revenge to start the year,

1001
00:54:05,280 --> 00:54:08,120
Speaker 3: Bengals you have, they're gone to the road. The forty

1002
00:54:08,200 --> 00:54:09,840
Speaker 3: nine Ers will have that game circle so that it

1003
00:54:09,840 --> 00:54:12,360
Speaker 3: comes out after a bye you have at the Bills

1004
00:54:12,400 --> 00:54:15,400
Speaker 3: with revenge like that. So there's definitely some land mines

1005
00:54:15,400 --> 00:54:18,719
Speaker 3: on their schedule, But I project them eleven four. I mean, look,

1006
00:54:18,760 --> 00:54:21,840
Speaker 3: it's the Chiefs. They're gonna be there at the end. Basically,

1007
00:54:21,920 --> 00:54:24,719
Speaker 3: just can they stay healthy because Mames is he gonna

1008
00:54:24,719 --> 00:54:30,719
Speaker 3: have an injury. I love Worthy, and I love the

1009
00:54:30,760 --> 00:54:34,879
Speaker 3: addition of Brown. If she Rice, that's another question Mark

1010
00:54:34,960 --> 00:54:38,160
Speaker 3: what's gonna happen with Rice? But if you add that

1011
00:54:38,239 --> 00:54:41,480
Speaker 3: speed to that offense, you gotta remember, though Kelsey's he's

1012
00:54:41,480 --> 00:54:45,000
Speaker 3: not getting any younger, and you remember during the regular season,

1013
00:54:45,040 --> 00:54:46,680
Speaker 3: you know he's obviously gonna turn on into the playoffs.

1014
00:54:46,719 --> 00:54:49,399
Speaker 3: But yeah, there's a reason this teams, this offense looks

1015
00:54:49,440 --> 00:54:51,480
Speaker 3: so bad during the regular season. But I do like

1016
00:54:51,640 --> 00:54:54,600
Speaker 3: the addition of Worthy and Brown. If rice who knows

1017
00:54:54,640 --> 00:54:58,400
Speaker 3: the status and their schedules starts with Baltimore, Cincinnati left

1018
00:54:58,400 --> 00:55:01,360
Speaker 3: tackle is the biggest question mark to lose Steed, but

1019
00:55:01,400 --> 00:55:03,200
Speaker 3: they they've just done such a good job about a

1020
00:55:03,560 --> 00:55:07,600
Speaker 3: great young pieces in the secondary end at linebacker. Uh,

1021
00:55:07,840 --> 00:55:11,719
Speaker 3: defensive line still to me outside of Chris Jones obviously,

1022
00:55:12,040 --> 00:55:13,920
Speaker 3: can that d duplicate what they did last year? I

1023
00:55:13,920 --> 00:55:16,279
Speaker 3: mean trusts bags, I don't know. I'm about eleven four.

1024
00:55:16,640 --> 00:55:18,680
Speaker 3: We know the Chiefs. As long as you know Mahomes

1025
00:55:18,680 --> 00:55:20,560
Speaker 3: doesn't get hurt, they're gonna be there in the end.

1026
00:55:20,600 --> 00:55:24,560
Speaker 3: But no play for me. Ah preseason.

1027
00:55:25,760 --> 00:55:27,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is a team. I mean, just just bet

1028
00:55:27,640 --> 00:55:29,840
Speaker 1: them to win the conference of the Super Bowl. I

1029
00:55:29,840 --> 00:55:32,680
Speaker 1: mean historically betting.

1030
00:55:32,440 --> 00:55:35,399
Speaker 3: When they start zero and two, when they lose and

1031
00:55:35,440 --> 00:55:36,759
Speaker 3: then the Super Bowl.

1032
00:55:37,200 --> 00:55:40,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, because like historically betting, I know they're nine and

1033
00:55:40,239 --> 00:55:42,120
Speaker 1: two with Reid and that there's something to be said

1034
00:55:42,120 --> 00:55:45,520
Speaker 1: for that, but uh, historically betting the over on double

1035
00:55:45,560 --> 00:55:49,319
Speaker 1: digit win totals is a losing bet, so uh, yeah,

1036
00:55:49,400 --> 00:55:51,279
Speaker 1: no interest there, But I do like some of the

1037
00:55:51,320 --> 00:55:53,400
Speaker 1: additions on offense. Now it just comes down to Rice's

1038
00:55:53,400 --> 00:55:56,040
Speaker 1: health and you know, replacing Steed as you mentioned. But

1039
00:55:56,080 --> 00:55:57,560
Speaker 1: the charges of the t I want to spend the

1040
00:55:57,640 --> 00:56:00,520
Speaker 1: most time on here, just because Number one, they're smack

1041
00:56:00,560 --> 00:56:02,880
Speaker 1: dab in the middle of the wind total spectrum eight

1042
00:56:02,920 --> 00:56:05,000
Speaker 1: and a half, although it is juiced to the over

1043
00:56:05,040 --> 00:56:08,000
Speaker 1: at minus one fifty, so closer than nine than not.

1044
00:56:09,160 --> 00:56:11,040
Speaker 1: You know, they do have a minus ten rest edge,

1045
00:56:11,040 --> 00:56:14,319
Speaker 1: which is tied for six worst. They only have one

1046
00:56:14,320 --> 00:56:17,520
Speaker 1: game with more resting opponents, but that's combined with the

1047
00:56:17,520 --> 00:56:19,960
Speaker 1: fact that they don't usually have a home field advantage.

1048
00:56:20,960 --> 00:56:23,279
Speaker 1: And but Harbaugh, you know, he did go over his

1049
00:56:23,280 --> 00:56:25,360
Speaker 1: win total in three of the four years with the Niners.

1050
00:56:25,680 --> 00:56:28,680
Speaker 1: He should restore kind of some order. Here. They go,

1051
00:56:28,840 --> 00:56:31,160
Speaker 1: you know, O line early in the draft, and they

1052
00:56:31,160 --> 00:56:34,920
Speaker 1: get mcconkee in the second round at wide receiver. So

1053
00:56:35,080 --> 00:56:37,759
Speaker 1: you know, I think this team has some intrigue. The

1054
00:56:37,760 --> 00:56:40,319
Speaker 1: schedule makers I don't think did them a much. You know,

1055
00:56:40,640 --> 00:56:43,480
Speaker 1: great favors, but overall, what do you think of with

1056
00:56:43,520 --> 00:56:45,479
Speaker 1: this Charger team in year one of the Harbaugh era?

1057
00:56:46,480 --> 00:56:48,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I have him favored a ten games,

1058
00:56:48,120 --> 00:56:51,000
Speaker 3: second easiest schedule in the NFL. Power is they were

1059
00:56:51,080 --> 00:56:53,080
Speaker 3: three and eight one possession games last year at bad

1060
00:56:53,120 --> 00:56:58,480
Speaker 3: injury luck. Obviously we're dealing with Brandon Staley losing his team,

1061
00:56:58,640 --> 00:57:04,200
Speaker 3: and yeah, East and Stick. This is the Harball Roman

1062
00:57:04,560 --> 00:57:06,640
Speaker 3: Mintor era. They're gonna be relying on a lot of

1063
00:57:06,680 --> 00:57:10,880
Speaker 3: rookies in key spots. I think they just lack weapons,

1064
00:57:10,960 --> 00:57:13,760
Speaker 3: is what really if? This is basically the new Ravens

1065
00:57:13,800 --> 00:57:16,480
Speaker 3: offense with what Greg Roman have, but you don't have

1066
00:57:16,520 --> 00:57:20,120
Speaker 3: a mobile quarterback, Like there's just like that. That does

1067
00:57:20,160 --> 00:57:26,040
Speaker 3: scare me. I do love Minter as a defensive coordinator.

1068
00:57:26,040 --> 00:57:28,440
Speaker 3: I think their defense can take a huge step forward.

1069
00:57:29,280 --> 00:57:30,960
Speaker 3: You know, he's gonna use a lot of the skies,

1070
00:57:31,280 --> 00:57:37,160
Speaker 3: different fronts, post snap, pre snap motion, just a lot

1071
00:57:37,200 --> 00:57:41,720
Speaker 3: more pure zone than matching, which is what Brandon Staley did.

1072
00:57:42,080 --> 00:57:44,480
Speaker 3: I think there could be a big, big coordinator bump out.

1073
00:57:44,480 --> 00:57:47,480
Speaker 3: You're gonna see more quarters and cover three than Staley,

1074
00:57:47,600 --> 00:57:50,920
Speaker 3: much more blitzing, many many more sims. I think Staley

1075
00:57:51,000 --> 00:57:53,560
Speaker 3: was like ten percent. Minter historically has been at like

1076
00:57:53,600 --> 00:57:56,920
Speaker 3: forty percent, and I think that he's just gonna simplify

1077
00:57:57,000 --> 00:57:59,960
Speaker 3: things in a good way while also still the sky.

1078
00:58:01,320 --> 00:58:03,480
Speaker 3: And I think he's gonna unlock Derwin James, like he's

1079
00:58:03,480 --> 00:58:07,320
Speaker 3: just going to use him as a bandit and keep

1080
00:58:07,360 --> 00:58:09,520
Speaker 3: him on the field and just unleash him instead of

1081
00:58:09,680 --> 00:58:11,720
Speaker 3: you know, making cover, just use him as a playmaker.

1082
00:58:12,040 --> 00:58:15,680
Speaker 3: So I think that their defense could be one of

1083
00:58:15,720 --> 00:58:20,120
Speaker 3: the more underrated units in the NFL, just because of

1084
00:58:20,120 --> 00:58:23,240
Speaker 3: that coordinator bump that we see. He saw it with

1085
00:58:23,680 --> 00:58:26,520
Speaker 3: uh obviously saw with the Ravens last year, but we

1086
00:58:26,520 --> 00:58:29,080
Speaker 3: saw it with the Vikings as well. A team. You know,

1087
00:58:29,080 --> 00:58:30,880
Speaker 3: when you look at their defensive rossers, you don't you're

1088
00:58:30,920 --> 00:58:33,760
Speaker 3: not wowed by the talent. So I do like that.

1089
00:58:33,840 --> 00:58:39,160
Speaker 3: I just worry about the lack of weapons, and you know,

1090
00:58:39,240 --> 00:58:41,240
Speaker 3: I think that they're really they're they're doing it in

1091
00:58:41,240 --> 00:58:44,520
Speaker 3: the right way. I think this team is on the rise.

1092
00:58:46,400 --> 00:58:49,200
Speaker 3: More intriguing to me, not this year, but next I

1093
00:58:49,240 --> 00:58:51,880
Speaker 3: want to see how this all goes. But yeah, I

1094
00:58:51,920 --> 00:58:55,960
Speaker 3: just wish they had like just one more reliable wide

1095
00:58:56,000 --> 00:58:59,160
Speaker 3: receiver for Herbert to throw to. But I do have

1096
00:58:59,200 --> 00:59:02,919
Speaker 3: them with easy schedule, project them eight eight.

1097
00:59:04,000 --> 00:59:06,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think they're more likely to be a nine

1098
00:59:06,560 --> 00:59:09,720
Speaker 1: win team than than an eight win team. I do think,

1099
00:59:09,960 --> 00:59:11,880
Speaker 1: you know, even though, like as you mentioned, I think

1100
00:59:11,880 --> 00:59:13,760
Speaker 1: that it is a big concern, you know, not having

1101
00:59:14,080 --> 00:59:17,920
Speaker 1: the weapons you've had in the past within Allen and Williams.

1102
00:59:17,960 --> 00:59:23,600
Speaker 3: But you know, now could be finally a strength which

1103
00:59:23,640 --> 00:59:25,240
Speaker 3: it hasn't been so long.

1104
00:59:25,120 --> 00:59:26,720
Speaker 1: And the run offense could get back to be in

1105
00:59:26,880 --> 00:59:28,880
Speaker 1: a strength it could you know, we got the backs

1106
00:59:28,880 --> 00:59:33,720
Speaker 1: are still kind of they're essentially the Ravens backs from offense. Yeah. So,

1107
00:59:34,080 --> 00:59:35,640
Speaker 1: but you look at the schedule, they have a lot

1108
00:59:35,680 --> 00:59:38,440
Speaker 1: of winnable games. So if the the rest, you know,

1109
00:59:38,960 --> 00:59:41,720
Speaker 1: doesn't hurt them, you know they have They're playing teams

1110
00:59:41,760 --> 00:59:44,840
Speaker 1: like Vegas and Carolina and Pittsburgh and Denver and Arizona

1111
00:59:44,880 --> 00:59:46,680
Speaker 1: and the Saints, but a lot of teams where you know,

1112
00:59:46,720 --> 00:59:50,400
Speaker 1: the quarterback like Herbert should have the quarterback edge. They'll

1113
00:59:50,400 --> 00:59:52,040
Speaker 1: probably have a coaching Edgine and a lot of those two.

1114
00:59:52,080 --> 00:59:54,840
Speaker 1: So yeah, i'd lean over here for them as well.

1115
00:59:54,840 --> 00:59:56,440
Speaker 1: But I agree, I don't think they're ceiling as as

1116
00:59:56,480 --> 00:59:59,240
Speaker 1: high this year as it will be in some years

1117
00:59:59,280 --> 01:00:03,360
Speaker 1: going forward. And then the final two teams. Vegas is

1118
01:00:03,360 --> 01:00:05,960
Speaker 1: at six and a half wins minus one forty five

1119
01:00:06,000 --> 01:00:07,720
Speaker 1: to the over, Denver at five and a half wins,

1120
01:00:07,760 --> 01:00:11,360
Speaker 1: minus one forty five to the over. Denver of course

1121
01:00:11,400 --> 01:00:13,240
Speaker 1: has that great home field in Denver, but they have

1122
01:00:13,280 --> 01:00:16,160
Speaker 1: a minus seventeen rest edge. That's the bottom three. Of

1123
01:00:16,200 --> 01:00:18,800
Speaker 1: those two teams, Vegas and Denver, which one do you

1124
01:00:18,840 --> 01:00:22,920
Speaker 1: think has a better chance of emerging here and kind

1125
01:00:22,960 --> 01:00:28,640
Speaker 1: of outplaying expectations both teams? You know, quarterback situations not ideal. Yeah.

1126
01:00:28,640 --> 01:00:31,520
Speaker 3: For words, for I go through so I have all

1127
01:00:31,560 --> 01:00:35,440
Speaker 3: my projections. For example, I project the Broncos five point

1128
01:00:35,520 --> 01:00:38,040
Speaker 3: seven wins, but I also go through every game the

1129
01:00:38,080 --> 01:00:41,160
Speaker 3: whole season and mark consider spots and just mark who

1130
01:00:41,160 --> 01:00:43,440
Speaker 3: I think is gonna win. If you're curious, I have

1131
01:00:43,480 --> 01:00:50,040
Speaker 3: Denver finishing seven and ten. I have Vegas finishing six

1132
01:00:50,080 --> 01:00:53,160
Speaker 3: and eleven. I have the Chiefs finishing ten and seven

1133
01:00:53,840 --> 01:00:57,280
Speaker 3: and the Chargers nine and eight. So zero chance of

1134
01:00:57,320 --> 01:01:04,080
Speaker 3: that happening. But that's how everything broke for me. Yeah,

1135
01:01:04,280 --> 01:01:06,480
Speaker 3: it's hard. For what was the question who could win

1136
01:01:06,520 --> 01:01:08,720
Speaker 3: the division? Who out of those two teams?

1137
01:01:08,760 --> 01:01:10,280
Speaker 1: Just which team do you have things has a better

1138
01:01:10,320 --> 01:01:17,080
Speaker 1: shot of exceeding expectations? Denver Vegas?

1139
01:01:18,320 --> 01:01:21,440
Speaker 3: I would say, I would say Vegas. I don't think

1140
01:01:21,440 --> 01:01:26,280
Speaker 3: bow Knicks is ready. You know Garner Minshew is a

1141
01:01:26,280 --> 01:01:30,920
Speaker 3: fine backup that can win games brutal first, I mean

1142
01:01:31,760 --> 01:01:34,000
Speaker 3: greater schedule. You know, if you look at the first

1143
01:01:34,000 --> 01:01:35,880
Speaker 3: thirteen weeks not easy. Then I also have them with

1144
01:01:35,880 --> 01:01:37,480
Speaker 3: dogs in their last five. I only even favorite in

1145
01:01:37,520 --> 01:01:40,680
Speaker 3: two games. But you know, I think they're gonna run

1146
01:01:40,720 --> 01:01:43,880
Speaker 3: more twelve personnel with Bowers Powers Johnson I liked as

1147
01:01:43,880 --> 01:01:45,800
Speaker 3: a draft pick. You had a Wilkins up front, which

1148
01:01:45,800 --> 01:01:48,200
Speaker 3: I think addressed the need. Their secondary isn't great, but

1149
01:01:48,280 --> 01:01:50,240
Speaker 3: like Graham did a really good job with this team

1150
01:01:50,320 --> 01:01:52,320
Speaker 3: last year. They had an identity. They just didn't let

1151
01:01:52,360 --> 01:01:57,240
Speaker 3: up explosive plays, even with an under Whommings secondary. So

1152
01:01:58,520 --> 01:02:03,000
Speaker 3: I'll say bow Knicks, isn't it. The Broncos have holes

1153
01:02:03,360 --> 01:02:05,480
Speaker 3: all over the roster. It's just not a very talented

1154
01:02:05,960 --> 01:02:11,440
Speaker 3: broster overall. So yeah, this Raiders team could be feisty

1155
01:02:12,440 --> 01:02:16,800
Speaker 3: under Pierce, and then you have that insurance for O'Connell.

1156
01:02:16,960 --> 01:02:18,560
Speaker 3: We'll see you ends up getting the job. I think

1157
01:02:18,560 --> 01:02:24,360
Speaker 3: they paid mentioned fifteen million. But yeah, I'll say the Raiders.

1158
01:02:25,480 --> 01:02:28,200
Speaker 3: But I project the Raiders for six and a half

1159
01:02:28,240 --> 01:02:32,680
Speaker 3: wins the Broncos five point seven wins, which I think

1160
01:02:32,680 --> 01:02:36,200
Speaker 3: are pretty close to on market, so nothing for me there.

1161
01:02:37,240 --> 01:02:40,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I have a lot of concerns about

1162
01:02:40,200 --> 01:02:43,080
Speaker 1: the Broncos quarterback situation, and then the Raiders. I just

1163
01:02:43,200 --> 01:02:45,880
Speaker 1: you know, I think their defense might have overachieved a little.

1164
01:02:46,080 --> 01:02:48,600
Speaker 1: I'm I don't get this situation is very good, and

1165
01:02:48,640 --> 01:02:52,280
Speaker 1: I think their road schedules really tough. So yeah, I

1166
01:02:52,560 --> 01:02:54,400
Speaker 1: don't love. I think I'd probably say the Broncos just

1167
01:02:54,400 --> 01:02:56,360
Speaker 1: because their win total is one west and you know

1168
01:02:56,400 --> 01:02:59,480
Speaker 1: they do have Sean Payton if I had to pick one.

1169
01:02:59,520 --> 01:03:02,800
Speaker 1: But nothing, nothing there for me. Uh, that's gonna do

1170
01:03:02,840 --> 01:03:05,480
Speaker 1: it for us. For the AFC our NFC episode will

1171
01:03:05,520 --> 01:03:08,919
Speaker 1: be out dropping shortly after this one, so be sure

1172
01:03:08,920 --> 01:03:11,480
Speaker 1: to check that out. Just to recap stuck the tea.

1173
01:03:11,600 --> 01:03:14,720
Speaker 1: The two you like the most is the under on

1174
01:03:14,760 --> 01:03:17,480
Speaker 1: the Ravens and then the over on Cincinnati with some

1175
01:03:17,560 --> 01:03:19,880
Speaker 1: division mixed in, right.

1176
01:03:20,680 --> 01:03:22,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, I would even play. I would just play sinc

1177
01:03:23,440 --> 01:03:27,920
Speaker 3: To win the Division of Baltimore under and if you

1178
01:03:28,040 --> 01:03:33,919
Speaker 3: like the Jags, sprinkle a little Ah Lawrence m VP.

1179
01:03:35,400 --> 01:03:38,800
Speaker 1: For me, my favorites are the unders on the Coats

1180
01:03:38,880 --> 01:03:42,360
Speaker 1: and the Titans the over on the Texans. I know

1181
01:03:42,400 --> 01:03:47,720
Speaker 1: it's a ween under on Buffalo and over on the Chargers.

1182
01:03:48,080 --> 01:03:50,640
Speaker 1: That's gonna wrap it for us. You can find stuck

1183
01:03:50,960 --> 01:03:53,360
Speaker 1: on X at Stucky two. I'm at Chris Raybond. We're

1184
01:03:53,360 --> 01:03:55,480
Speaker 1: at those same handles on the free award winning Action

1185
01:03:55,840 --> 01:03:59,920
Speaker 1: Network at until next time, let's getting this smunny.

1186
01:04:09,400 --> 01:04:13,920
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1187
01:04:13,920 --> 01:04:16,720
Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1188
01:04:16,760 --> 01:04:19,840
Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler