Speaker 1: Pushkin, Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making
Speaker 1: better decisions. I'm Maria Kannakova and I'm Nate.
Speaker 2: Silver today on the show. I mean, we have we
Speaker 2: have some news.
Speaker 3: It's not news that you'll be doing cartwheel Silver if
Speaker 3: you're a loyal fan of this show, but yeah, this
Speaker 3: is the last.
Speaker 2: Episode of Risky Business. That's the news.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's the news. We have absolutely loved the last
Speaker 1: few years with you guys and Pushkin and iHeart and
Speaker 1: we hope you've enjoyed it as well. And we are
Speaker 1: you know, we're both really excited to see what comes next.
Speaker 1: You know where to follow us. We're both very easy
Speaker 1: to reach. We both have substacks the Leap for me
Speaker 1: and Silver Atend for Nate, where you can share feedback
Speaker 1: about Risky Business, but also where we will be making
Speaker 1: future announcements about where we head to next. So if
Speaker 1: you've been a loyal listener, we hope you will follow
Speaker 1: us along on the next stage of our journey. And
Speaker 1: you know, we'd love to Nate. I think before we
Speaker 1: get into the show for this final week, which will
Speaker 1: include a look back at some of the predictions that
Speaker 1: we made last year. This time last year and some
Speaker 1: predictions for twenty twenty six. I think we owe it
Speaker 1: to ourselves to kind of look back at two years
Speaker 1: of Risky Business and what we've kind of accomplished here,
Speaker 1: because I think it's pretty cool that we've been able
Speaker 1: to do this podcast for two years together. Yeah.
Speaker 3: No, Look, I think we are trying to carve out
Speaker 3: a niche that's becoming more and more relevant in the world,
Speaker 3: right from like sportscambling scandals.
Speaker 2: You know, prediction markets act that. Like, you know, it
Speaker 2: feels more and more like we're in a world where
Speaker 2: if you kind of like sit idly by, then you
Speaker 2: you lose around.
Speaker 3: It feels more and more like I mean, my opinions
Speaker 3: about a progress of waxed and waned over the show.
Speaker 3: We talk about it a lot, but you know, feeling
Speaker 3: like we're marching into a certain future and if you
Speaker 3: are in mid career and have had some success, just
Speaker 3: like maybe not a feeling of profound security necessarily, right,
Speaker 3: We're moving into a world where people are maybe.
Speaker 2: Becoming stupider important ways, Like I.
Speaker 1: Wasn't sure where that I wasn't sure where that sentence
Speaker 1: was gonna go.
Speaker 2: No, I mean, I think I think.
Speaker 4: I'm very worried about and the boomers and the boomers
Speaker 4: getting addicted their fucking sub sacks and ship like that,
Speaker 4: and like, I don't know, Maria, I don't know.
Speaker 2: You know, I think they're more self righteous.
Speaker 3: I mean they used to be adicted to Facebook, which
Speaker 3: was stupid, but like sub second is kind of partisan,
Speaker 3: and so I mean, anyway, you know, the poker world's
Speaker 3: been a little weird.
Speaker 2: You want to talk a little poker, Maria, Sure you so.
Speaker 3: I am supposed to be full disclosure, audience. It's an
Speaker 3: episode is airing in January. We're taping it in late
Speaker 3: December before Christmas. I in fact was supposed to be
Speaker 3: taping this from so called Paradise.
Speaker 1: Nate, tell the audience how you really feel about the
Speaker 1: WSP Paradise stuff.
Speaker 2: I attended.
Speaker 3: The World Series of Poker Paradise in Atlantis Resort on
Speaker 3: Paradise Island, which is a sub island of New Providence
Speaker 3: in the Bahamas, and I think I had probably the worst.
Speaker 2: Time that I've had at like a.
Speaker 3: Poker festival, as they're officially called. These poker receivers are
Speaker 3: officially called festivals. Right, Like, nothing bad happened, right, I
Speaker 3: got a couple of nights nights out with a friend
Speaker 3: who was having his birthday. I met some fun people
Speaker 3: at the tables, ranging from NBA legend Tony Parker to
Speaker 3: barstool Nate any other Nate.
Speaker 2: I'm usually a fan. I'm playing against Wright, but number one.
Speaker 3: Like I, I just.
Speaker 2: Felt really confined in this giant resort.
Speaker 3: And furthermore, like there's been a clash between the World
Speaker 3: Poker Tour and the World Series of Poker for the
Speaker 3: slot in mid December.
Speaker 1: And Poker Stars there's ept problem.
Speaker 2: And Poker Stars is an ebt and in product.
Speaker 3: Basically, mid December is a really good slot for a
Speaker 3: poker tournament because like, you have to be fucking insane
Speaker 3: to travel in between Thanksgiving and Christmas, and poker players
Speaker 3: are insane, and so we'll, you know, it's a cheap
Speaker 3: time of year actually to travel. So the World Poker
Speaker 3: Tour spun what had once been a relatively sleepy I
Speaker 3: think it was called five Diamond Classic at the Bellagio.
Speaker 3: The Wind began hosting a slot instead put a big
Speaker 3: guarantee out in twenty twenty two, I think it was
Speaker 3: fifteen million dollarslew that away people really love that series, right,
Speaker 3: I mean an even bigger guarantee forty million dollars in
Speaker 3: twenty twenty three. And then the World Serio tooker keeam
Speaker 3: and said, well, we're.
Speaker 2: Doing our thing in.
Speaker 3: The Atlantis. Whin did not hit its guarantee had to
Speaker 3: pay some money out of the wind coffers. And then
Speaker 3: after that World Seriece Houcker's are, well, fuck you, we'll
Speaker 3: guarantee you fifty million dollars in the Bahamas last year,
Speaker 3: and then.
Speaker 2: Sixty million dollars.
Speaker 3: Except this is a twenty five K actually twenty six
Speaker 3: K tournament and not a ten K, and you can,
Speaker 3: like you can enter the tournament very very often.
Speaker 1: Yeah, some people were in for thirteen fourteen fifteen bullets.
Speaker 1: There were a lot of re entries. Now think about
Speaker 1: what that means twenty six thousand dollars times fifteen sixteen bullets,
Speaker 1: Like these are expensive tournaments.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I know, there were what they were like twenty
Speaker 3: one hundred entries, but they were from like one thousand
Speaker 3: ish unique participants, right, so the average person entered almost
Speaker 3: three times, so it was really a seventy eight K
Speaker 3: for them and not a twenty six K, which is
Speaker 3: builds a twenty five k, right, The tables I played
Speaker 3: were despite that pretty good. I booked originally seven nights
Speaker 3: in the Bahamas. Some were covered by casino points, and
Speaker 3: why not shortening that, But like you know, all the
Speaker 3: seven nights I was scheduled there, I probably played, let
Speaker 3: me think, eighteen actual hours of actual poker, when if
Speaker 3: there have been a better schedule, it had.
Speaker 2: The capacity to play fifty hours.
Speaker 1: Right, yeah, which is why n I went to the
Speaker 1: WBT hat the win where the schedule is wonderful. The
Speaker 1: win is one of the best places in the world
Speaker 1: to play poker. Staff is a plus. I love the one.
Speaker 1: Once again, this is the end of December. You'll be
Speaker 1: hearing this in early January, so my series is not
Speaker 1: over yet, so I have no idea how it's going
Speaker 1: to go. But even if I end up losing a
Speaker 1: shit ton of money, which actually isn't possible at this point,
Speaker 1: but even if I lose more money than I want to,
Speaker 1: I will be quite happy because this is a great
Speaker 1: time of year in Vegas, and I'm happy to be
Speaker 1: here in ept. Prog by the way, is also amazing.
Speaker 1: I've been there many times. I didn't go this year
Speaker 1: because it's far and it's cold, and Vegas is warm
Speaker 1: and close.
Speaker 2: So that was my that's got to Prague, right, and
Speaker 2: you could have gone to pragu.
Speaker 1: And it would have been a lot better. It would
Speaker 1: have been a lot better.
Speaker 3: And then you bust out, is there a EPT Paris
Speaker 3: this year?
Speaker 1: There is an APT Paris this year? I will be there.
Speaker 1: So yeah, risky business listeners February Paris.
Speaker 2: So you there, But in Paris you bust that. You're like,
Speaker 2: I'm almost fucking happy about that. Right, it's going to go.
Speaker 1: We had.
Speaker 3: Right, you know, I mean that you know great that
Speaker 3: you almost one of us, but you know, the baas
Speaker 3: is in this like basically compound.
Speaker 1: Yeah, this stopped. This stop was not paradise, is what
Speaker 1: I'm hearing from you. And we hope, at least, I
Speaker 1: sincerely hope that poker will go more in the direction
Speaker 1: of what Poker Stars and WT are doing and less
Speaker 1: in the Paradise direction, and that w s P. I
Speaker 1: think a lot of people did not have a great
Speaker 1: experience this yere and I do want to remind everyone
Speaker 1: listening that at the end of the day, poker is
Speaker 1: a game. If you're not having fun, why are you
Speaker 1: even doing it? So when something isn't fun, just get
Speaker 1: the fuck out of there. So let's let's just uh
Speaker 1: talk about now are let's go into predictions. So we
Speaker 1: we made some predictions last year, so exactly a year ago,
Speaker 1: give or take a few days, we made predictions for
Speaker 1: how twenty twenty five was going to go. Nate, I
Speaker 1: didn't remember almost any of this. It's so funny, Like
Speaker 1: I didn't remember what predictions we made. I didn't remember
Speaker 1: how we were talking about this. So it's fun It
Speaker 1: was a very different, uh, very different time, right, And
Speaker 1: it's also very funny to see kind of what topics
Speaker 1: seemed relevant, right, Like seemed like they were going to
Speaker 1: be the big stories of the year, and it turned
Speaker 1: out the year was very different from what we had
Speaker 1: what we had thought. So we don't have to go
Speaker 1: through every single prediction that we made, but we made
Speaker 1: we made some interesting ones. So first prediction we made,
Speaker 1: which I think is actually kind of funny, is we
Speaker 1: were both predicting the highs and lows of bitcoin, and Nate,
Speaker 1: you said it was going to be a one forty high.
Speaker 1: I said one eighty, and then our lows were sixty
Speaker 1: and seventy. We were so wrong, right, Like, our highs
Speaker 1: were are way too high. You were closer, You were closer.
Speaker 2: I'm close. That's good.
Speaker 1: You were closer. Yeah, don't yeah, don't throw.
Speaker 3: Me under This is a good group project. I did
Speaker 3: my part of the project. Well, Marie, don't throw me
Speaker 3: under the bus.
Speaker 1: No, all I met was that our lows were too
Speaker 1: low and our highs were too high.
Speaker 2: Okay, well, look at the history of bit coin.
Speaker 1: Is I was closer on the low because the low
Speaker 1: was seventy eight point five and my low was seventy.
Speaker 1: So come on, we both got this happened half. We
Speaker 1: were correct though, on Trump nominees that how many would
Speaker 1: be rejected or withdraw we said zero, and it was
Speaker 1: in fact zero.
Speaker 3: Yeah, so both predicted two press secretaries in twenty twenty five.
Speaker 2: There's a limit one.
Speaker 3: Caroline Levett has kept that job at least through the
Speaker 3: late December day in which we're taking this.
Speaker 2: You know, we go yeah tomorrow.
Speaker 1: And you were correct that there was going to be
Speaker 1: a national emergency to begin mass deportations. I said no,
Speaker 1: and you said yes. I actually, according to the producer's
Speaker 1: my exact language is probably yes. But I'm going to
Speaker 1: say no because I don't want him to. My wishful
Speaker 1: thinking did it work? So I tried to manifest it.
Speaker 1: It did not manifest. There was, indeed, a national emergency
Speaker 1: at the border declared. Musk did not become the first trillionaire.
Speaker 1: We both got that right.
Speaker 3: It can close six seventy seven billion as of December
Speaker 3: fifteenth estimates Forbes.
Speaker 1: Yes, pretty close, pretty close.
Speaker 2: But no, well, you know, you know it shove me
Speaker 2: a three hundred billion.
Speaker 1: Anything above five hundred we round up to a trillion.
Speaker 1: Is that the way it works?
Speaker 2: Sixth seedment.
Speaker 1: We can't. We can't do our tournament winnings, at least
Speaker 1: I can't because we're still we're taking this in the
Speaker 1: middle of a series format.
Speaker 3: I predicted negative ten thousands for myself, it will be
Speaker 3: this fucking that was within the realm of accurate before
Speaker 3: this fucking Bahamas debacle. And I'm done for the year.
Speaker 3: So yeah, at least I was directly correct. It would
Speaker 3: be a negative year in tournament.
Speaker 2: Poker, all right.
Speaker 1: I have not done my calculation for the year yet,
Speaker 1: so I cannot answer. My estimate was that I was
Speaker 1: going to be up forty five thousand dollars. I'll report
Speaker 1: back when I can. Oh, this was.
Speaker 2: Good, Nate, you got a good bet. Ten thousand dollars.
Speaker 3: You get bet any line in sports, what would you
Speaker 3: bet that? Okay, I'm most say Shane Alexander would win
Speaker 3: the MVP Award, which he did. I think it was
Speaker 3: a little bit of a contrarian take back in January
Speaker 3: probably a.
Speaker 1: Probably, John, did you actually put money on it?
Speaker 2: I've had money in the OKAC thunder a fair bit. Actually.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 1: Good. And this is hilarious because I'm obviously the one
Speaker 1: who awarded the second annual Daniel Kneman Memorial Cognitive Bias
Speaker 1: of the Year Award, and I had predicted that it
Speaker 1: was going to be the recency effect, and that is
Speaker 1: indeed what I chose, which is funny. I guess my
Speaker 1: brain was the same way, but I totally forgot that
Speaker 1: this was my prediction, and so this was not a
Speaker 1: self fulfilling prophecy. We cared about TikTok. We don't really
Speaker 1: care about it anymore.
Speaker 3: Funny, what's gonna happen to ticktach? I thought it would
Speaker 3: get banned and you didn't. And it didn't get banned
Speaker 3: because Trump, Yes, cynical.
Speaker 2: I don't know.
Speaker 1: Yeah, So we both did a long shot bet for
Speaker 1: twenty twenty five, and Nate yours was about drones.
Speaker 2: Remember those drones were in New Jersey.
Speaker 3: One of three chants that later reporting would say there
Speaker 3: had been something.
Speaker 2: Something we all there and I guess, sir, I guess.
Speaker 3: I don't think that's happened. I don't think there's been
Speaker 3: much reporting on anything apart from no. Yeah, okay, so
Speaker 3: you know, but your launchots are supposed to lose most
Speaker 3: of the time, right, you call with pocket force. You're
Speaker 3: not going to flop a set all that often.
Speaker 1: No, that's very true. My lawn shot was that twenty
Speaker 1: twenty five will be the year that we see a
Speaker 1: nuclear power resurgence. Countries that had brought the plants offline,
Speaker 1: we'll bring them back online. We'll see the first nuclear
Speaker 1: power plants open because of increased energy needs due to AI.
Speaker 1: I was kind of right. So this is starting to happen.
Speaker 1: It's a lot of the plants are on track, and
Speaker 1: we see a lot of nuclear plant opening scheduled for
Speaker 1: twenty twenty six. So I was directionally correct, but it
Speaker 1: hasn't happened yet. The process has started, but the plants
Speaker 1: are not actually open yet. So yeah, but mine was
Speaker 1: I think less of a long shot than yours.
Speaker 3: Yeah, a little, a little little, a little safe there, Maria.
Speaker 1: But you know what, back a year ago, I think
Speaker 1: people were people including you, did not think that nuclear
Speaker 1: power was going to be as big as as it's
Speaker 1: now becoming. So it was still somewhat contrarian.
Speaker 3: And we'll be right back after this break.
Speaker 1: All right, let's go to twenty twenty six, and let's
Speaker 1: talk about some predictions for twenty twenty six. So, Nate,
Speaker 1: where do you want to start. Do you want to
Speaker 1: talk about some politics predictions? Do you want to talk
Speaker 1: about sports? Ai, what's what's on your mind? We've got
Speaker 1: some predictions in all these different categories.
Speaker 2: I guess politics.
Speaker 1: All right, let's start with politics.
Speaker 2: We're going to an election year.
Speaker 3: We are, indeed, so if you're hearing this, probably twenty six.
Speaker 3: Welcome your election year. It never set exactly.
Speaker 1: Welcome to an election year. Yeah, it seems like it's
Speaker 1: been one giant election year. Nate. I am going to
Speaker 1: seed the political prediction ground to you because all I
Speaker 1: know is what I read in the news. I don't
Speaker 1: have any insider models. Insider info you do, I mean,
Speaker 1: this is what you do. You build these models.
Speaker 2: I don't have inside because I think insider info makes you.
Speaker 1: Stupider well not insider info, but you have the models
Speaker 1: that can actually process this information in a more data.
Speaker 3: We're still a few months from the models being turned
Speaker 3: back on. But look, I think Democrats are pretty heavy
Speaker 3: favorites to take the House in the neighborhood of.
Speaker 2: Eighty five percent.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was going to say the same thing that
Speaker 1: I do. Think they're going to retake the House. Are
Speaker 1: we gonna What do we think about the Senate?
Speaker 3: I think the Senate is plausible for Democrats, but like
Speaker 3: but like, but not like, I mean, what do they
Speaker 3: have to win?
Speaker 2: They have to win four seats.
Speaker 3: And so there are two that in principle are quote
Speaker 3: unquote easy, which are main in North Carolina. In North Carolina, Cooper,
Speaker 3: the former governor, is running.
Speaker 2: It's a swing state.
Speaker 3: So you think the formula would be no incumbent, strong
Speaker 3: Democratic candidate usually in midterms, the environment and you can
Speaker 3: look at like the generic ballot or Trump's pool ratings
Speaker 3: usually as Democratics. So like, mathematically that should favor Democrats
Speaker 3: in you know, Susan Collins has survived difficult electoral environments
Speaker 3: before war. Democrats are having a big fight in their
Speaker 3: primary between Graham Platner the the populist oyster fishermen who, unfortunately,
Speaker 3: unfortunately this happens to the best of us, unfortunately got
Speaker 3: a tattoo that some people might argue resembles a symbol
Speaker 3: used by a division, a Nazi Panzer division.
Speaker 2: The Nazis, of course, were a group of Germans during
Speaker 2: World War Two who didn't preicre like Jews or any
Speaker 2: other people who weren't Rian. But you know, look it happens. Look,
Speaker 2: you know, look, I mean, what can you say? It happens.
Speaker 2: He was a little drunk in Croatia.
Speaker 3: You know, it's like, look at this fucking Bahamas tournament, right,
Speaker 3: you know, I was bored enough. It's like fucking fire.
Speaker 3: Another bullet was twenty five k go get like a tattoo.
Speaker 3: If those are the choices, I might have wound up
Speaker 3: with a tattoo myself.
Speaker 2: Maria, Well, we're.
Speaker 1: We're glad that there was a third option. Yeah, all right,
Speaker 1: so we've got we've got a likely house retake, less likely.
Speaker 3: At the at pollm markets when we're taping this. It's
Speaker 3: seventy eight in the House for Democrats.
Speaker 2: I think that's low. I would take the over on that.
Speaker 3: In the Senate it's thirty five percent for Democrats. That
Speaker 3: seemed roughly reasonable to me.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that that makes sense. Thirty five percent is not zero,
Speaker 1: but it's.
Speaker 2: A long way from zero. It's it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it's the cherry. Yeah, it's it's very it's
Speaker 1: very plausible. So what would how about uh, egg prices,
Speaker 1: that's very that's funny political we can have.
Speaker 2: I don't know it. Our producers suggested it. I look,
Speaker 2: I don't. I don't. I don't know.
Speaker 3: I don't really eat the many eggs, not really go
Speaker 3: shotting for eggs. I'm probably the wrong person to ask
Speaker 3: about this.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, well, it depends obviously on diseases and all
Speaker 1: sorts of things. Let's say the highest egg prices in
Speaker 1: twenty twenty six will be twelve dollars for a dozen eggs.
Speaker 1: I have no idea it's going to be my prediction.
Speaker 1: I'll say that's a dollar an egg, Nate, That's that's all.
Speaker 2: I'll say. Eleven nine is the person is right? Shit,
Speaker 2: I love it. I love gts this is GTO.
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is this is the GTO. So we're going
Speaker 1: to give you a GTO lesson on the prices. Right,
Speaker 1: do you're the over under when you see people on
Speaker 1: that game who actually don't know how to play, right,
Speaker 1: and someone already guesses a number, and what are you
Speaker 1: supposed to guess after that night?
Speaker 2: You're supposed to guess a dollar under? Yeah?
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, you just do not want to be the
Speaker 1: person who if you can't go over. Yeah, it's it's
Speaker 1: a it's a it's an interesting game theoretical lesson in
Speaker 1: all of these games. I don't watch quiz show games,
Speaker 1: but they all have game theory that you should study
Speaker 1: if you're ever going to be on one of them.
Speaker 1: Do you think anyone's going to be prosecuted with regards
Speaker 1: to the Epstein files, I actually do not. I think
Speaker 1: that this is oh maybe a Democrat, but this has
Speaker 1: to be a prosecution that actually goes forward. Yeah, I
Speaker 1: don't know. I mean, the.
Speaker 2: GP eventually did sign a dispatch petition. I mean, people are.
Speaker 3: I guess I'd say prosecuted by who? By the federal government? Right,
Speaker 3: I guess No.
Speaker 2: I think it's just too messy for Trump to like actually, like.
Speaker 3: It's a little too cavalier for for him to like
Speaker 3: target a Democrat. I mean I don't know, Yeah, I
Speaker 3: just think it feels like then you're encouraging people to
Speaker 3: discuss that story, which I think the White House does
Speaker 3: not want to do.
Speaker 2: Right. Yeah, I think.
Speaker 1: That that's correct. That's why I think now sports, well,
Speaker 1: which league, Nate, we'll have a major gambling scandal next?
Speaker 1: I mean, are we allowed to say that, like they'll
Speaker 1: also be repeats because I think that the you know,
Speaker 1: or do we have to pick a league that hasn't
Speaker 1: had a gambling scandal because I feel like at this point, like, man,
Speaker 1: we're going to see these everywhere.
Speaker 2: Oh. I think college sports are are.
Speaker 3: Right for because they're like some of these students are
Speaker 3: now making money with nil deals, but like they're you know,
Speaker 3: there have valuable information that there's a lot of volume
Speaker 3: in college football college basketball betting. Right, these kids are
Speaker 3: not professionals, they could use some income and like ye, yeah,
Speaker 3: I mean that seems to me almost statistically and there
Speaker 3: are more teams than in the pros. Yeah, it seems
Speaker 3: to be almost like statistically inevitable at some point.
Speaker 1: Oh, absolutely, absolutely, whenever you have such a misalignment of
Speaker 1: incentives right where you can make a lot more money
Speaker 1: than you're making from from something that might be a
Speaker 1: little bit not as above board as one would hope.
Speaker 1: There's going to be there's going to be a scandal.
Speaker 1: We see that in professional sports where athletes are underpaid.
Speaker 1: It's why there's so much cheating in tennis, for instance,
Speaker 1: because in tennis, you know, the top of the profession
Speaker 1: is paid very well, but there's so many players, right
Speaker 1: who are not that who are not that well compensated.
Speaker 1: And tennis is expensive. You have to travel, you have
Speaker 1: to do you know, there are lots and lots of
Speaker 1: expenses for this, and unless you're at the very top,
Speaker 1: you're just not going to make a lot of money.
Speaker 1: And so people are incentivized to, you know, to cheat.
Speaker 1: They can because if you're playing singles, especially like, it's
Speaker 1: so easy, right, you can actually throw matches, like, you
Speaker 1: can manipulate serves, you can do so many different things
Speaker 1: to get money. And if you're being paid nothing, but
Speaker 1: the prediction markets and the betting markets and the sports
Speaker 1: betting markets are so high, right, and there's so much
Speaker 1: potential volume, there so much money there. Then you have
Speaker 1: this misalignment that is going to cause scandals, and so
Speaker 1: that's very very true in the college arena as well. So, Nate,
Speaker 1: I think, I think that's a good, good prediction, and
Speaker 1: I'm actually surprised that we haven't had a huge one yet,
Speaker 1: But I think that that's probably because the rules have
Speaker 1: only started to shift now and a lot of these
Speaker 1: betting opportunities didn't exist before.
Speaker 3: Yeah, let's remember if to the except there are these scandals,
Speaker 3: the leagues aren't thrilled to have them come up, right,
Speaker 3: So you don't know what's kind of going on and
Speaker 3: being handled with quiet suspensions below the radar and things
Speaker 3: like that. But like it's hard to imagine that and
Speaker 3: given what you've seen in the NBA, and college has
Speaker 3: traditionally been kind of a source of point shaving, dating
Speaker 3: back to like the Boston College scandal of the seventies.
Speaker 1: So, yeah, do you have any other sports ones that
Speaker 1: you want to talk about other than let's give you
Speaker 1: ten thousand dollars again?
Speaker 3: I mean, look, I think I think the OKAC Thunder
Speaker 3: are once again a good season long bet.
Speaker 4: Right.
Speaker 2: They have started out their season.
Speaker 3: I think they're twenty four and two, have the best
Speaker 3: point differentiate in basketball history, beating the record from last year.
Speaker 3: Have done this with various injuries because they like, you know,
Speaker 3: if you divide that team in half, they would both
Speaker 3: be top four playoff seeds in the West. And like,
Speaker 3: it just seems like it's never easy money in the NBA.
Speaker 3: Their half court offense is merely good. That becomes more
Speaker 3: important the place postseason. But like, but yeah, I know
Speaker 3: this seems like a a I know it's not easy money,
Speaker 3: but like, I think they're above fifty percent to win
Speaker 3: the championship, is my view.
Speaker 1: So that's what you would bet your ten thousand dollars on.
Speaker 3: Well, I mean, look, it would depend on Yeah, I
Speaker 3: think I think they'd be a good use of I
Speaker 3: don't know what the odds are, actually, I should look
Speaker 3: that up. It's about fifty to fifty in the betting markets, right.
Speaker 1: Okay, so it is a good So it would be
Speaker 1: a good use of your money, right if it's fifty
Speaker 1: to fifty. Yeah, and you have a strong conviction one way.
Speaker 1: All right, let's do it. We'll be back right after this.
Speaker 1: All right, let's let's move on to AI, which is
Speaker 1: something I actually know more about than sports. Over under
Speaker 1: on Sora manifesting a major news event. So Sorah makes
Speaker 1: a video which is a fake AI video, and then
Speaker 1: the shit that's in the video actually happens. I mean,
Speaker 1: I think that there's a decent chance of that.
Speaker 2: How is this defined?
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I guess we get to define it, right,
Speaker 1: this is our prediction. So defining there's something, well, first
Speaker 1: major news event, right, so it can't be something minor
Speaker 1: like oh, there's going to be a protest on you know,
Speaker 1: Madison Avenue. Okay, fine, like that. That's not that that's
Speaker 1: not a major news event, but something like, you know,
Speaker 1: there's going to be I don't know, military coup. Well,
Speaker 1: that would definitely be a major news event. But let's
Speaker 1: let's hope Sory doesn't manifest anything.
Speaker 2: I wonder have you seen.
Speaker 3: These AI generated clips of where a fat person carries
Speaker 3: a boulder onto a glass bridge right or into like
Speaker 3: an infinity pool and then like jump on it to
Speaker 3: destabilize the bridge and cause everyone to fall down into
Speaker 3: the canyon of the river or whatever. Have you seen these?
Speaker 1: I have not seen these. NT.
Speaker 2: I don't know what you're talking about.
Speaker 3: I know what makes you seem crazy, but it's a
Speaker 3: genre of these videos, right, you know, so.
Speaker 2: I guess I'm like, will there actually be copycats?
Speaker 1: Are you seeing a therapist? Do we need to talk
Speaker 1: about this?
Speaker 2: This is a real thing, I mean, a real effect thing.
Speaker 2: What I'm saying is like, it's interesting.
Speaker 3: This is like one of the first thing is kind
Speaker 3: of like emerge out of the randomness of AI models,
Speaker 3: right and become kind of viral. I believe you have
Speaker 3: you maybe you're not star have time on on on
Speaker 3: X the everything platform, what does Helene call it?
Speaker 1: That is most certainly true.
Speaker 3: I would, you know, maybe I'll see some copycat attempts
Speaker 3: to like to turn memes real that are originally.
Speaker 1: Yeah, well that's that's that's an interesting I mean, I
Speaker 1: think that there's a very good shot at that happening.
Speaker 1: And by the way, I want to applaud myself on
Speaker 1: saying not interested, not from me, not interested, not interested
Speaker 1: enough on X that I don't get any of these
Speaker 1: in my feet, so I get very few viral videos.
Speaker 1: So I applaud my brain for for not being exposed
Speaker 1: to at least that matter of slop. But there are
Speaker 1: some viral videos that look incredibly real and that have
Speaker 1: actually been used by real news organizations and by the
Speaker 1: president obviously. So I think that there will be more
Speaker 1: and more of that happening. Right where you have these
Speaker 1: very plausible seeming videos. There was one one that went
Speaker 1: viral which was a street interview in New York about
Speaker 1: I think it was about Snap benefits and that went
Speaker 1: viral and was picked up by actual media, and the
Speaker 1: people didn't exist, right, It was a fake interview or
Speaker 1: a fake interviewee, fake interview, fake everything. And I think
Speaker 1: we're going to be seeing a lot more of that,
Speaker 1: which is kind of craft the character that fits your storyline, right,
Speaker 1: give them the dialogue that you think this type of
Speaker 1: person should be saying, and here you go, here's a
Speaker 1: video which is going to I think upset the balance
Speaker 1: of how we consume news and how we can figure
Speaker 1: out what is and isn't real, right, Like, are you
Speaker 1: able to use video as proof that something did or
Speaker 1: it did not happen and in the absence of sophisticated
Speaker 1: technology to detect if something is real or fake, which
Speaker 1: exists but not in the general viewers. You know, it's
Speaker 1: not like I can see a video and immediately be like, oh,
Speaker 1: this is fake, this is real. The better they get,
Speaker 1: the less able, the just average user is to be
Speaker 1: able to detect that. What we know from psychology is
Speaker 1: that once you're exposed to it, even if it's then
Speaker 1: debunked as fake, the you know, the effects linger right,
Speaker 1: It's not like it magically disappears from your brain. It's
Speaker 1: still kind of has this Oh but it's kind of
Speaker 1: real type of primacy. And I think we're gonna be
Speaker 1: so we talked.
Speaker 2: I don't fast it much here. So like, yeah, when
Speaker 2: Charlie Kirk was killed.
Speaker 3: Uh, the assassin was someone who had grown up in
Speaker 3: a conservative family but had become more more left wing
Speaker 3: over time. But like you know, you know, people like
Speaker 3: Helicos Richardson, the most prominent substacker, right kind of spread
Speaker 3: misinformation or she didn't, And there's no kind of right
Speaker 3: spread misinformation speculing that he was a griper, meaning somebody
Speaker 3: who thought that like a Nick Finis type, who thought
Speaker 3: that like Charlie Kirk wasn't conservative enough, it wasn't pure enough, right,
Speaker 3: and that was just total misinformation. But like Jimmy Kimmel
Speaker 3: said something similar, right in like polls of Democrats or
Speaker 3: actually general voters, like a lot of people, if you
Speaker 3: survey them, think that Charlie Kirk's killer was actually a
Speaker 3: conservative Many people think that, so like, yeah, it is.
Speaker 2: It is hard to debunk.
Speaker 3: So like, so I've just in a situation where I'm like,
Speaker 3: I don't feel like I have anybody to trust on
Speaker 3: certain types of stories right now.
Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely absolutely, And I think that that problem is
Speaker 1: going to get only worse. I think that that's a
Speaker 1: prediction that we can stand behind for for this coming year.
Speaker 1: Who do you think will have the best AI model
Speaker 1: by the end of the year. So this time next year,
Speaker 1: which of the AI models is going to which company
Speaker 1: is going to be ahead.
Speaker 2: As judged by like general consensus or.
Speaker 1: Like, yeah, I think so, I guess anthropic.
Speaker 2: I mean, look, you can make a contrarian case.
Speaker 3: So right now, I think the consensus of like super
Speaker 3: AI super user nerds would.
Speaker 2: Say probably Claude.
Speaker 3: But people seem to like GPT five point two so far,
Speaker 3: which was a pretty rapid progression from five point one.
Speaker 3: Open AI has the most resources. You know, people seem
Speaker 3: to think that Gemini is very literal I need, but
Speaker 3: a very good model.
Speaker 2: I wouldn't put anything past Google. I don't know, maybe
Speaker 2: up in AI is like undervalued resources they have.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with Google Deep Mind. I think that
Speaker 1: they're gonna be the winners at the end of this year. Okay,
Speaker 1: in dumbest with trust, I wonder if you're a little rescued.
Speaker 2: But no people, but it's you know, I'll go with Claude.
Speaker 1: I guess all right, let's uh, do do you want
Speaker 1: to do one New York specific one zoron? Uh? What
Speaker 1: do we think? Do you wanna do you wanna do
Speaker 1: a zoron prediction or do you want to just see
Speaker 1: what happens?
Speaker 2: Well you get his free buses this year?
Speaker 1: Uh? Maybe maybe I don't think so, though I give
Speaker 1: it like a I'll get it. I'll give it a
Speaker 1: thirty five per chance.
Speaker 2: So one free. But I think there'll be a pilot program, right,
Speaker 2: because who can not.
Speaker 1: The entire city.
Speaker 3: Yeah, they'll make like a second avenue by free or something. Right, Yeah,
Speaker 3: they'll make a couple of buses free, I predict, and
Speaker 3: we'll see how it go.
Speaker 1: All right.
Speaker 2: I'm not that I post the free buses.
Speaker 1: No, I think it's a great idea.
Speaker 2: I think it's early today.
Speaker 3: Yeah, but like I mean, the problem is, like you
Speaker 3: give people who want to sit and ride a bus
Speaker 3: all day and an opportunity to do that, you know what
Speaker 3: I mean.
Speaker 2: This might not be people you want on the bus necessarily,
Speaker 2: but yeah.
Speaker 1: Well I think that. I think that a lot of
Speaker 1: places have tried it, not a lot, A few places
Speaker 1: have tried it and it's worked pretty well so and
Speaker 1: it might help with congestion. So let's see. Yeah, let's
Speaker 1: see what happens, all right, Nate, do you think that, well,
Speaker 1: how many days do you think you're going to make
Speaker 1: it in the WSOP Maine event?
Speaker 2: So it was five this year and six two years ago?
Speaker 2: I guess two before?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean the median the median is three, And
Speaker 3: I do think now, I do think there is some
Speaker 3: particular advantage in that tournament if you've played it a
Speaker 3: lot and run deep before, right, But it would be
Speaker 3: you know, the correct answer, siskally is is two or three?
Speaker 3: And I think I'm I think three is probably the
Speaker 3: actually correct answer, And I think to predict four or
Speaker 3: more would be quite arrogant and unrealistic.
Speaker 1: When how many days does it last? When it's the
Speaker 1: final table, it's nine days?
Speaker 2: Nine or ten? Yeah?
Speaker 1: Okay, so I'm going to predict I make it to
Speaker 1: day ten. Okay, I'm gonna manifest it. I'm manifested it.
Speaker 1: I fuck it, fuck it, Nate. So I'm I'm making
Speaker 1: the final table this year. You know, Leo did it
Speaker 1: last year. She was a great guest on this podcast,
Speaker 1: and I think it's it's you know, the time for
Speaker 1: and Chrissy almost did it the year before. So I
Speaker 1: think women women have been getting further and further, so
Speaker 1: this year, why not me for our last episode? If
Speaker 1: I'm going to make a prediction, I you know, if
Speaker 1: there's a less than one percent chance, that's still fine.
Speaker 1: I am vision board manifesting. So on that note, let's
Speaker 1: just end the predictions with me winning the doublesp made event.
Speaker 1: I think that's it's a great one, or at least
Speaker 1: final tabling. I'm not gonna get too ergon. I don't
Speaker 1: have to win it our final table. I'd like to
Speaker 1: win it, but final tabling, you know, I'll take it.
Speaker 1: I'll take it, you know.
Speaker 2: I would take it. I take a day seven. How
Speaker 2: about that?
Speaker 4: All right?
Speaker 1: Sounds good? And with that, thank you Risky Business listeners
Speaker 1: for being an amazing audience and again follow us on
Speaker 1: our substacks and stay tuned for more news about where
Speaker 1: Nate and I will be heading next.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I guess the end has to come somewhat awkwardly here.
Speaker 3: Yeah, at the end, I don't know if you know,
Speaker 3: if you want to like sing a theme song or
Speaker 3: no or whatever, you.
Speaker 1: Know, absolutely not you can sing, Nate, I'm gonna I'm
Speaker 1: gonna listen.
Speaker 3: All the memories all alone, and I don't even know
Speaker 3: what song that is.
Speaker 1: Thanks, We're ending on an Andrew Lloyd Weber classic flop.
Speaker 3: Let's do not like not like musicals. By the way,
Speaker 3: don't get any wrong ideas.
Speaker 4: All right.
Speaker 1: We hope we've made some good memories here with you,
Speaker 1: and we look forward to making more memories with you
Speaker 1: in the future, wherever that may be. Let us know
Speaker 1: what you think of the show. Reach out to us
Speaker 1: at Risky Business at pushkin dot FM. Risky Business is
Speaker 1: hosted by me Maria Kanakova.
Speaker 3: And by me Nate Silver. The show was a Cool
Speaker 3: production of Pushing Industries and iHeartMedia. This episode was produced
Speaker 3: by Isaac Carter. Our associate producer is Sonya gerwit Lydia
Speaker 3: Jean Kott and Daphney Chen are our editors. And our
Speaker 3: executive producer is Jacob Goldstein. Mixing by Sarah Bruguer.
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