WEBVTT - Nate and Maria’s 2026 Predictions 0:00:15.564 --> 0:00:26.684 Pushkin, Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making 0:00:26.724 --> 0:00:30.084 better decisions. I'm Maria Kannakova and I'm Nate. 0:00:30.044 --> 0:00:33.844 Silver today on the show. I mean, we have we 0:00:33.884 --> 0:00:34.684 have some news. 0:00:35.044 --> 0:00:39.804 It's not news that you'll be doing cartwheel Silver if 0:00:39.804 --> 0:00:42.124 you're a loyal fan of this show, but yeah, this 0:00:42.244 --> 0:00:43.404 is the last. 0:00:43.804 --> 0:00:47.724 Episode of Risky Business. That's the news. 0:00:48.684 --> 0:00:51.524 Yeah, that's the news. We have absolutely loved the last 0:00:51.564 --> 0:00:55.804 few years with you guys and Pushkin and iHeart and 0:00:56.724 --> 0:00:59.804 we hope you've enjoyed it as well. And we are 0:01:00.124 --> 0:01:02.844 you know, we're both really excited to see what comes next. 0:01:03.204 --> 0:01:05.244 You know where to follow us. We're both very easy 0:01:05.284 --> 0:01:08.044 to reach. We both have substacks the Leap for me 0:01:08.644 --> 0:01:11.564 and Silver Atend for Nate, where you can share feedback 0:01:11.764 --> 0:01:15.124 about Risky Business, but also where we will be making 0:01:15.204 --> 0:01:18.164 future announcements about where we head to next. So if 0:01:18.164 --> 0:01:21.844 you've been a loyal listener, we hope you will follow 0:01:21.924 --> 0:01:29.724 us along on the next stage of our journey. And 0:01:30.044 --> 0:01:32.844 you know, we'd love to Nate. I think before we 0:01:32.884 --> 0:01:36.724 get into the show for this final week, which will 0:01:36.764 --> 0:01:39.284 include a look back at some of the predictions that 0:01:39.324 --> 0:01:41.884 we made last year. This time last year and some 0:01:42.004 --> 0:01:45.124 predictions for twenty twenty six. I think we owe it 0:01:45.164 --> 0:01:48.644 to ourselves to kind of look back at two years 0:01:48.644 --> 0:01:52.684 of Risky Business and what we've kind of accomplished here, 0:01:52.724 --> 0:01:54.844 because I think it's pretty cool that we've been able 0:01:54.884 --> 0:01:57.724 to do this podcast for two years together. Yeah. 0:01:57.884 --> 0:02:00.644 No, Look, I think we are trying to carve out 0:02:00.684 --> 0:02:04.884 a niche that's becoming more and more relevant in the world, 0:02:05.004 --> 0:02:08.724 right from like sportscambling scandals. 0:02:08.084 --> 0:02:12.084 You know, prediction markets act that. Like, you know, it 0:02:12.124 --> 0:02:14.004 feels more and more like we're in a world where 0:02:14.044 --> 0:02:17.684 if you kind of like sit idly by, then you 0:02:17.684 --> 0:02:18.684 you lose around. 0:02:18.764 --> 0:02:20.964 It feels more and more like I mean, my opinions 0:02:21.044 --> 0:02:23.884 about a progress of waxed and waned over the show. 0:02:23.924 --> 0:02:28.404 We talk about it a lot, but you know, feeling 0:02:28.484 --> 0:02:31.164 like we're marching into a certain future and if you 0:02:31.204 --> 0:02:34.924 are in mid career and have had some success, just 0:02:34.924 --> 0:02:39.244 like maybe not a feeling of profound security necessarily, right, 0:02:39.284 --> 0:02:42.124 We're moving into a world where people are maybe. 0:02:43.524 --> 0:02:50.644 Becoming stupider important ways, Like I. 0:02:52.484 --> 0:02:55.044 Wasn't sure where that I wasn't sure where that sentence 0:02:55.164 --> 0:02:55.604 was gonna go. 0:02:56.804 --> 0:02:58.324 No, I mean, I think I think. 0:02:58.764 --> 0:03:04.764 I'm very worried about and the boomers and the boomers 0:03:05.764 --> 0:03:08.484 getting addicted their fucking sub sacks and ship like that, 0:03:08.564 --> 0:03:11.204 and like, I don't know, Maria, I don't know. 0:03:11.964 --> 0:03:14.324 You know, I think they're more self righteous. 0:03:14.444 --> 0:03:16.124 I mean they used to be adicted to Facebook, which 0:03:16.164 --> 0:03:19.404 was stupid, but like sub second is kind of partisan, 0:03:19.444 --> 0:03:21.564 and so I mean, anyway, you know, the poker world's 0:03:21.564 --> 0:03:22.084 been a little weird. 0:03:22.084 --> 0:03:24.644 You want to talk a little poker, Maria, Sure you so. 0:03:24.684 --> 0:03:27.364 I am supposed to be full disclosure, audience. It's an 0:03:27.364 --> 0:03:31.684 episode is airing in January. We're taping it in late 0:03:31.764 --> 0:03:35.564 December before Christmas. I in fact was supposed to be 0:03:35.604 --> 0:03:40.204 taping this from so called Paradise. 0:03:43.724 --> 0:03:46.364 Nate, tell the audience how you really feel about the 0:03:46.484 --> 0:03:48.444 WSP Paradise stuff. 0:03:50.124 --> 0:03:51.404 I attended. 0:03:52.884 --> 0:03:59.124 The World Series of Poker Paradise in Atlantis Resort on 0:03:59.564 --> 0:04:02.764 Paradise Island, which is a sub island of New Providence 0:04:02.884 --> 0:04:06.604 in the Bahamas, and I think I had probably the worst. 0:04:08.924 --> 0:04:11.564 Time that I've had at like a. 0:04:11.484 --> 0:04:14.764 Poker festival, as they're officially called. These poker receivers are 0:04:14.804 --> 0:04:19.524 officially called festivals. Right, Like, nothing bad happened, right, I 0:04:19.564 --> 0:04:21.684 got a couple of nights nights out with a friend 0:04:21.724 --> 0:04:25.804 who was having his birthday. I met some fun people 0:04:25.884 --> 0:04:29.004 at the tables, ranging from NBA legend Tony Parker to 0:04:29.164 --> 0:04:30.724 barstool Nate any other Nate. 0:04:30.804 --> 0:04:34.564 I'm usually a fan. I'm playing against Wright, but number one. 0:04:34.804 --> 0:04:37.924 Like I, I just. 0:04:37.884 --> 0:04:41.884 Felt really confined in this giant resort. 0:04:42.004 --> 0:04:46.364 And furthermore, like there's been a clash between the World 0:04:46.404 --> 0:04:49.124 Poker Tour and the World Series of Poker for the 0:04:49.204 --> 0:04:51.724 slot in mid December. 0:04:51.924 --> 0:04:53.764 And Poker Stars there's ept problem. 0:04:53.524 --> 0:04:55.724 And Poker Stars is an ebt and in product. 0:04:55.884 --> 0:04:57.884 Basically, mid December is a really good slot for a 0:04:57.924 --> 0:05:00.644 poker tournament because like, you have to be fucking insane 0:05:00.844 --> 0:05:04.764 to travel in between Thanksgiving and Christmas, and poker players 0:05:04.764 --> 0:05:06.724 are insane, and so we'll, you know, it's a cheap 0:05:06.764 --> 0:05:10.884 time of year actually to travel. So the World Poker 0:05:10.924 --> 0:05:14.484 Tour spun what had once been a relatively sleepy I 0:05:14.484 --> 0:05:17.164 think it was called five Diamond Classic at the Bellagio. 0:05:18.244 --> 0:05:21.484 The Wind began hosting a slot instead put a big 0:05:21.524 --> 0:05:23.924 guarantee out in twenty twenty two, I think it was 0:05:24.044 --> 0:05:28.004 fifteen million dollarslew that away people really love that series, right, 0:05:28.484 --> 0:05:30.524 I mean an even bigger guarantee forty million dollars in 0:05:30.524 --> 0:05:33.284 twenty twenty three. And then the World Serio tooker keeam 0:05:33.324 --> 0:05:33.964 and said, well, we're. 0:05:33.844 --> 0:05:34.524 Doing our thing in. 0:05:36.284 --> 0:05:40.164 The Atlantis. Whin did not hit its guarantee had to 0:05:40.284 --> 0:05:43.764 pay some money out of the wind coffers. And then 0:05:43.924 --> 0:05:46.884 after that World Seriece Houcker's are, well, fuck you, we'll 0:05:46.924 --> 0:05:49.724 guarantee you fifty million dollars in the Bahamas last year, 0:05:49.764 --> 0:05:50.004 and then. 0:05:50.004 --> 0:05:50.804 Sixty million dollars. 0:05:50.844 --> 0:05:53.724 Except this is a twenty five K actually twenty six 0:05:53.844 --> 0:05:56.524 K tournament and not a ten K, and you can, 0:05:56.684 --> 0:06:00.404 like you can enter the tournament very very often. 0:06:00.524 --> 0:06:04.204 Yeah, some people were in for thirteen fourteen fifteen bullets. 0:06:04.244 --> 0:06:06.844 There were a lot of re entries. Now think about 0:06:06.844 --> 0:06:11.884 what that means twenty six thousand dollars times fifteen sixteen bullets, 0:06:11.884 --> 0:06:13.964 Like these are expensive tournaments. 0:06:14.284 --> 0:06:15.564 Yeah, I know, there were what they were like twenty 0:06:15.564 --> 0:06:18.724 one hundred entries, but they were from like one thousand 0:06:19.364 --> 0:06:23.044 ish unique participants, right, so the average person entered almost 0:06:23.044 --> 0:06:25.204 three times, so it was really a seventy eight K 0:06:26.084 --> 0:06:27.924 for them and not a twenty six K, which is 0:06:27.964 --> 0:06:30.524 builds a twenty five k, right, The tables I played 0:06:30.564 --> 0:06:34.644 were despite that pretty good. I booked originally seven nights 0:06:35.364 --> 0:06:40.284 in the Bahamas. Some were covered by casino points, and 0:06:41.124 --> 0:06:45.004 why not shortening that, But like you know, all the 0:06:45.044 --> 0:06:47.724 seven nights I was scheduled there, I probably played, let 0:06:47.804 --> 0:06:52.764 me think, eighteen actual hours of actual poker, when if 0:06:52.764 --> 0:06:54.004 there have been a better schedule, it had. 0:06:53.884 --> 0:06:56.884 The capacity to play fifty hours. 0:06:56.964 --> 0:07:00.084 Right, yeah, which is why n I went to the 0:07:00.204 --> 0:07:05.524 WBT hat the win where the schedule is wonderful. The 0:07:05.604 --> 0:07:07.884 win is one of the best places in the world 0:07:07.964 --> 0:07:13.964 to play poker. Staff is a plus. I love the one. 0:07:14.644 --> 0:07:17.764 Once again, this is the end of December. You'll be 0:07:17.804 --> 0:07:21.284 hearing this in early January, so my series is not 0:07:21.364 --> 0:07:24.244 over yet, so I have no idea how it's going 0:07:24.284 --> 0:07:26.244 to go. But even if I end up losing a 0:07:26.284 --> 0:07:28.964 shit ton of money, which actually isn't possible at this point, 0:07:29.644 --> 0:07:32.484 but even if I lose more money than I want to, 0:07:33.284 --> 0:07:36.244 I will be quite happy because this is a great 0:07:36.284 --> 0:07:38.164 time of year in Vegas, and I'm happy to be 0:07:38.204 --> 0:07:40.204 here in ept. Prog by the way, is also amazing. 0:07:40.244 --> 0:07:43.324 I've been there many times. I didn't go this year 0:07:43.364 --> 0:07:46.604 because it's far and it's cold, and Vegas is warm 0:07:46.724 --> 0:07:47.284 and close. 0:07:48.244 --> 0:07:52.084 So that was my that's got to Prague, right, and 0:07:52.564 --> 0:07:53.644 you could have gone to pragu. 0:07:53.484 --> 0:07:54.964 And it would have been a lot better. It would 0:07:55.004 --> 0:07:55.684 have been a lot better. 0:07:55.964 --> 0:07:59.084 And then you bust out, is there a EPT Paris 0:07:59.164 --> 0:07:59.524 this year? 0:08:00.084 --> 0:08:03.044 There is an APT Paris this year? I will be there. 0:08:03.084 --> 0:08:07.324 So yeah, risky business listeners February Paris. 0:08:07.404 --> 0:08:10.004 So you there, But in Paris you bust that. You're like, 0:08:10.604 --> 0:08:13.244 I'm almost fucking happy about that. Right, it's going to go. 0:08:15.284 --> 0:08:15.724 We had. 0:08:18.244 --> 0:08:21.604 Right, you know, I mean that you know great that 0:08:21.644 --> 0:08:24.284 you almost one of us, but you know, the baas 0:08:24.924 --> 0:08:29.844 is in this like basically compound. 0:08:30.604 --> 0:08:34.844 Yeah, this stopped. This stop was not paradise, is what 0:08:34.884 --> 0:08:38.724 I'm hearing from you. And we hope, at least, I 0:08:38.764 --> 0:08:41.684 sincerely hope that poker will go more in the direction 0:08:41.964 --> 0:08:45.204 of what Poker Stars and WT are doing and less 0:08:45.284 --> 0:08:49.084 in the Paradise direction, and that w s P. I 0:08:49.124 --> 0:08:50.564 think a lot of people did not have a great 0:08:50.604 --> 0:08:53.644 experience this yere and I do want to remind everyone 0:08:53.724 --> 0:08:55.444 listening that at the end of the day, poker is 0:08:55.484 --> 0:08:58.564 a game. If you're not having fun, why are you 0:08:58.604 --> 0:09:01.284 even doing it? So when something isn't fun, just get 0:09:01.284 --> 0:09:04.724 the fuck out of there. So let's let's just uh 0:09:05.324 --> 0:09:09.284 talk about now are let's go into predictions. So we 0:09:09.404 --> 0:09:13.164 we made some predictions last year, so exactly a year ago, 0:09:13.524 --> 0:09:16.044 give or take a few days, we made predictions for 0:09:16.484 --> 0:09:19.244 how twenty twenty five was going to go. Nate, I 0:09:19.324 --> 0:09:22.484 didn't remember almost any of this. It's so funny, Like 0:09:22.564 --> 0:09:25.844 I didn't remember what predictions we made. I didn't remember 0:09:26.404 --> 0:09:30.124 how we were talking about this. So it's fun It 0:09:30.164 --> 0:09:33.844 was a very different, uh, very different time, right, And 0:09:33.924 --> 0:09:36.724 it's also very funny to see kind of what topics 0:09:36.764 --> 0:09:38.924 seemed relevant, right, Like seemed like they were going to 0:09:38.964 --> 0:09:41.164 be the big stories of the year, and it turned 0:09:41.164 --> 0:09:42.964 out the year was very different from what we had 0:09:43.444 --> 0:09:45.444 what we had thought. So we don't have to go 0:09:45.484 --> 0:09:49.844 through every single prediction that we made, but we made 0:09:49.884 --> 0:09:52.604 we made some interesting ones. So first prediction we made, 0:09:52.604 --> 0:09:55.444 which I think is actually kind of funny, is we 0:09:55.444 --> 0:10:00.044 were both predicting the highs and lows of bitcoin, and Nate, 0:10:00.084 --> 0:10:01.724 you said it was going to be a one forty high. 0:10:01.764 --> 0:10:04.404 I said one eighty, and then our lows were sixty 0:10:04.444 --> 0:10:09.124 and seventy. We were so wrong, right, Like, our highs 0:10:09.164 --> 0:10:12.444 were are way too high. You were closer, You were closer. 0:10:12.524 --> 0:10:13.604 I'm close. That's good. 0:10:13.644 --> 0:10:15.724 You were closer. Yeah, don't yeah, don't throw. 0:10:15.604 --> 0:10:18.364 Me under This is a good group project. I did 0:10:18.444 --> 0:10:20.244 my part of the project. Well, Marie, don't throw me 0:10:20.284 --> 0:10:20.764 under the bus. 0:10:21.084 --> 0:10:23.764 No, all I met was that our lows were too 0:10:23.804 --> 0:10:25.284 low and our highs were too high. 0:10:25.524 --> 0:10:27.524 Okay, well, look at the history of bit coin. 0:10:27.564 --> 0:10:29.644 Is I was closer on the low because the low 0:10:29.724 --> 0:10:32.044 was seventy eight point five and my low was seventy. 0:10:32.124 --> 0:10:36.284 So come on, we both got this happened half. We 0:10:36.284 --> 0:10:40.484 were correct though, on Trump nominees that how many would 0:10:40.564 --> 0:10:43.524 be rejected or withdraw we said zero, and it was 0:10:43.564 --> 0:10:44.164 in fact zero. 0:10:45.604 --> 0:10:50.964 Yeah, so both predicted two press secretaries in twenty twenty five. 0:10:51.244 --> 0:10:52.164 There's a limit one. 0:10:52.204 --> 0:10:56.004 Caroline Levett has kept that job at least through the 0:10:56.324 --> 0:10:58.124 late December day in which we're taking this. 0:10:58.244 --> 0:10:59.564 You know, we go yeah tomorrow. 0:11:01.164 --> 0:11:03.084 And you were correct that there was going to be 0:11:03.164 --> 0:11:09.284 a national emergency to begin mass deportations. I said no, 0:11:09.524 --> 0:11:13.644 and you said yes. I actually, according to the producer's 0:11:13.644 --> 0:11:16.124 my exact language is probably yes. But I'm going to 0:11:16.164 --> 0:11:18.404 say no because I don't want him to. My wishful 0:11:18.444 --> 0:11:22.524 thinking did it work? So I tried to manifest it. 0:11:22.524 --> 0:11:25.684 It did not manifest. There was, indeed, a national emergency 0:11:25.724 --> 0:11:30.004 at the border declared. Musk did not become the first trillionaire. 0:11:30.004 --> 0:11:30.884 We both got that right. 0:11:30.964 --> 0:11:34.524 It can close six seventy seven billion as of December 0:11:34.604 --> 0:11:36.244 fifteenth estimates Forbes. 0:11:37.564 --> 0:11:39.604 Yes, pretty close, pretty close. 0:11:39.644 --> 0:11:42.644 But no, well, you know, you know it shove me 0:11:42.684 --> 0:11:43.644 a three hundred billion. 0:11:44.244 --> 0:11:46.844 Anything above five hundred we round up to a trillion. 0:11:47.484 --> 0:11:48.484 Is that the way it works? 0:11:48.844 --> 0:11:49.564 Sixth seedment. 0:11:51.084 --> 0:11:53.524 We can't. We can't do our tournament winnings, at least 0:11:53.564 --> 0:11:56.164 I can't because we're still we're taking this in the 0:11:56.204 --> 0:11:57.204 middle of a series format. 0:11:57.484 --> 0:12:02.084 I predicted negative ten thousands for myself, it will be 0:12:02.404 --> 0:12:06.684 this fucking that was within the realm of accurate before 0:12:06.724 --> 0:12:11.324 this fucking Bahamas debacle. And I'm done for the year. 0:12:11.764 --> 0:12:14.284 So yeah, at least I was directly correct. It would 0:12:14.284 --> 0:12:16.084 be a negative year in tournament. 0:12:15.804 --> 0:12:17.524 Poker, all right. 0:12:18.284 --> 0:12:20.804 I have not done my calculation for the year yet, 0:12:21.044 --> 0:12:23.964 so I cannot answer. My estimate was that I was 0:12:24.004 --> 0:12:27.484 going to be up forty five thousand dollars. I'll report 0:12:27.564 --> 0:12:30.364 back when I can. Oh, this was. 0:12:30.324 --> 0:12:33.564 Good, Nate, you got a good bet. Ten thousand dollars. 0:12:33.564 --> 0:12:35.044 You get bet any line in sports, what would you 0:12:35.084 --> 0:12:38.004 bet that? Okay, I'm most say Shane Alexander would win 0:12:38.044 --> 0:12:40.524 the MVP Award, which he did. I think it was 0:12:40.564 --> 0:12:42.724 a little bit of a contrarian take back in January 0:12:42.764 --> 0:12:43.244 probably a. 0:12:43.524 --> 0:12:45.964 Probably, John, did you actually put money on it? 0:12:46.244 --> 0:12:49.524 I've had money in the OKAC thunder a fair bit. Actually. 0:12:49.844 --> 0:12:50.804 Yeah. 0:12:50.884 --> 0:12:54.684 Good. And this is hilarious because I'm obviously the one 0:12:54.684 --> 0:12:57.884 who awarded the second annual Daniel Kneman Memorial Cognitive Bias 0:12:57.924 --> 0:13:00.564 of the Year Award, and I had predicted that it 0:13:00.604 --> 0:13:02.684 was going to be the recency effect, and that is 0:13:02.724 --> 0:13:05.124 indeed what I chose, which is funny. I guess my 0:13:05.204 --> 0:13:08.644 brain was the same way, but I totally forgot that 0:13:08.684 --> 0:13:10.884 this was my prediction, and so this was not a 0:13:10.924 --> 0:13:16.684 self fulfilling prophecy. We cared about TikTok. We don't really 0:13:16.684 --> 0:13:17.564 care about it anymore. 0:13:18.364 --> 0:13:20.604 Funny, what's gonna happen to ticktach? I thought it would 0:13:20.604 --> 0:13:23.444 get banned and you didn't. And it didn't get banned 0:13:23.484 --> 0:13:25.884 because Trump, Yes, cynical. 0:13:26.284 --> 0:13:26.684 I don't know. 0:13:27.204 --> 0:13:30.764 Yeah, So we both did a long shot bet for 0:13:30.844 --> 0:13:35.084 twenty twenty five, and Nate yours was about drones. 0:13:36.884 --> 0:13:38.324 Remember those drones were in New Jersey. 0:13:38.404 --> 0:13:40.764 One of three chants that later reporting would say there 0:13:40.764 --> 0:13:42.004 had been something. 0:13:43.204 --> 0:13:45.284 Something we all there and I guess, sir, I guess. 0:13:45.284 --> 0:13:47.044 I don't think that's happened. I don't think there's been 0:13:47.164 --> 0:13:50.524 much reporting on anything apart from no. Yeah, okay, so 0:13:50.604 --> 0:13:52.404 you know, but your launchots are supposed to lose most 0:13:52.404 --> 0:13:55.244 of the time, right, you call with pocket force. You're 0:13:55.244 --> 0:13:58.004 not going to flop a set all that often. 0:13:58.724 --> 0:14:01.684 No, that's very true. My lawn shot was that twenty 0:14:01.724 --> 0:14:03.204 twenty five will be the year that we see a 0:14:03.284 --> 0:14:08.044 nuclear power resurgence. Countries that had brought the plants offline, 0:14:08.084 --> 0:14:10.764 we'll bring them back online. We'll see the first nuclear 0:14:10.804 --> 0:14:14.284 power plants open because of increased energy needs due to AI. 0:14:15.404 --> 0:14:18.484 I was kind of right. So this is starting to happen. 0:14:19.044 --> 0:14:22.484 It's a lot of the plants are on track, and 0:14:22.644 --> 0:14:26.244 we see a lot of nuclear plant opening scheduled for 0:14:26.324 --> 0:14:30.564 twenty twenty six. So I was directionally correct, but it 0:14:30.604 --> 0:14:34.164 hasn't happened yet. The process has started, but the plants 0:14:34.164 --> 0:14:37.884 are not actually open yet. So yeah, but mine was 0:14:37.924 --> 0:14:39.724 I think less of a long shot than yours. 0:14:40.244 --> 0:14:44.604 Yeah, a little, a little little, a little safe there, Maria. 0:14:44.884 --> 0:14:46.884 But you know what, back a year ago, I think 0:14:47.084 --> 0:14:51.564 people were people including you, did not think that nuclear 0:14:51.564 --> 0:14:54.204 power was going to be as big as as it's 0:14:54.244 --> 0:14:57.124 now becoming. So it was still somewhat contrarian. 0:15:02.484 --> 0:15:05.964 And we'll be right back after this break. 0:15:13.084 --> 0:15:17.084 All right, let's go to twenty twenty six, and let's 0:15:17.484 --> 0:15:23.524 talk about some predictions for twenty twenty six. So, Nate, 0:15:23.564 --> 0:15:24.764 where do you want to start. Do you want to 0:15:24.804 --> 0:15:27.084 talk about some politics predictions? Do you want to talk 0:15:27.124 --> 0:15:32.644 about sports? Ai, what's what's on your mind? We've got 0:15:32.644 --> 0:15:34.564 some predictions in all these different categories. 0:15:35.284 --> 0:15:36.524 I guess politics. 0:15:36.724 --> 0:15:38.204 All right, let's start with politics. 0:15:38.244 --> 0:15:39.404 We're going to an election year. 0:15:40.004 --> 0:15:43.284 We are, indeed, so if you're hearing this, probably twenty six. 0:15:43.604 --> 0:15:46.044 Welcome your election year. It never set exactly. 0:15:46.844 --> 0:15:49.324 Welcome to an election year. Yeah, it seems like it's 0:15:49.324 --> 0:15:52.484 been one giant election year. Nate. I am going to 0:15:52.644 --> 0:15:56.204 seed the political prediction ground to you because all I 0:15:56.244 --> 0:15:58.004 know is what I read in the news. I don't 0:15:58.004 --> 0:16:01.644 have any insider models. Insider info you do, I mean, 0:16:01.684 --> 0:16:03.364 this is what you do. You build these models. 0:16:03.524 --> 0:16:05.604 I don't have inside because I think insider info makes you. 0:16:05.604 --> 0:16:08.324 Stupider well not insider info, but you have the models 0:16:08.324 --> 0:16:11.284 that can actually process this information in a more data. 0:16:11.324 --> 0:16:13.364 We're still a few months from the models being turned 0:16:13.364 --> 0:16:17.124 back on. But look, I think Democrats are pretty heavy 0:16:17.164 --> 0:16:20.804 favorites to take the House in the neighborhood of. 0:16:22.364 --> 0:16:23.364 Eighty five percent. 0:16:23.524 --> 0:16:25.364 Yeah, I was going to say the same thing that 0:16:25.444 --> 0:16:27.964 I do. Think they're going to retake the House. Are 0:16:27.964 --> 0:16:29.764 we gonna What do we think about the Senate? 0:16:31.404 --> 0:16:34.604 I think the Senate is plausible for Democrats, but like 0:16:34.964 --> 0:16:37.924 but like, but not like, I mean, what do they 0:16:37.964 --> 0:16:38.164 have to win? 0:16:38.164 --> 0:16:39.124 They have to win four seats. 0:16:39.684 --> 0:16:44.364 And so there are two that in principle are quote 0:16:44.444 --> 0:16:50.844 unquote easy, which are main in North Carolina. In North Carolina, Cooper, 0:16:50.924 --> 0:16:52.204 the former governor, is running. 0:16:53.364 --> 0:16:54.964 It's a swing state. 0:16:55.764 --> 0:16:57.844 So you think the formula would be no incumbent, strong 0:16:57.884 --> 0:17:01.964 Democratic candidate usually in midterms, the environment and you can 0:17:02.004 --> 0:17:04.204 look at like the generic ballot or Trump's pool ratings 0:17:04.484 --> 0:17:08.804 usually as Democratics. So like, mathematically that should favor Democrats 0:17:09.124 --> 0:17:14.524 in you know, Susan Collins has survived difficult electoral environments 0:17:14.524 --> 0:17:17.084 before war. Democrats are having a big fight in their 0:17:17.084 --> 0:17:25.804 primary between Graham Platner the the populist oyster fishermen who, unfortunately, 0:17:26.844 --> 0:17:32.044 unfortunately this happens to the best of us, unfortunately got 0:17:32.084 --> 0:17:37.604 a tattoo that some people might argue resembles a symbol 0:17:37.884 --> 0:17:42.084 used by a division, a Nazi Panzer division. 0:17:42.124 --> 0:17:44.924 The Nazis, of course, were a group of Germans during 0:17:44.924 --> 0:17:47.644 World War Two who didn't preicre like Jews or any 0:17:47.684 --> 0:17:54.764 other people who weren't Rian. But you know, look it happens. Look, 0:17:54.884 --> 0:17:57.044 you know, look, I mean, what can you say? It happens. 0:17:57.084 --> 0:17:58.884 He was a little drunk in Croatia. 0:17:59.524 --> 0:18:02.884 You know, it's like, look at this fucking Bahamas tournament, right, 0:18:03.964 --> 0:18:06.284 you know, I was bored enough. It's like fucking fire. 0:18:06.324 --> 0:18:08.804 Another bullet was twenty five k go get like a tattoo. 0:18:09.644 --> 0:18:11.444 If those are the choices, I might have wound up 0:18:11.484 --> 0:18:12.404 with a tattoo myself. 0:18:12.444 --> 0:18:16.204 Maria, Well, we're. 0:18:15.844 --> 0:18:20.404 We're glad that there was a third option. Yeah, all right, 0:18:20.444 --> 0:18:25.964 so we've got we've got a likely house retake, less likely. 0:18:27.324 --> 0:18:30.724 At the at pollm markets when we're taping this. It's 0:18:30.724 --> 0:18:33.244 seventy eight in the House for Democrats. 0:18:33.284 --> 0:18:36.484 I think that's low. I would take the over on that. 0:18:37.644 --> 0:18:41.124 In the Senate it's thirty five percent for Democrats. That 0:18:41.244 --> 0:18:43.004 seemed roughly reasonable to me. 0:18:43.964 --> 0:18:47.044 Yeah, that that makes sense. Thirty five percent is not zero, 0:18:47.764 --> 0:18:48.444 but it's. 0:18:48.244 --> 0:18:49.364 A long way from zero. It's it. 0:18:49.644 --> 0:18:55.404 Yeah, it's it's the cherry. Yeah, it's it's very it's 0:18:55.524 --> 0:19:03.404 very plausible. So what would how about uh, egg prices, 0:19:03.564 --> 0:19:07.924 that's very that's funny political we can have. 0:19:08.604 --> 0:19:11.444 I don't know it. Our producers suggested it. I look, 0:19:11.564 --> 0:19:15.324 I don't. I don't. I don't know. 0:19:15.404 --> 0:19:17.804 I don't really eat the many eggs, not really go 0:19:17.844 --> 0:19:20.084 shotting for eggs. I'm probably the wrong person to ask 0:19:20.124 --> 0:19:20.604 about this. 0:19:21.364 --> 0:19:27.124 Yeah, yeah, well, it depends obviously on diseases and all 0:19:27.164 --> 0:19:29.964 sorts of things. Let's say the highest egg prices in 0:19:30.004 --> 0:19:33.684 twenty twenty six will be twelve dollars for a dozen eggs. 0:19:35.124 --> 0:19:36.644 I have no idea it's going to be my prediction. 0:19:37.164 --> 0:19:40.924 I'll say that's a dollar an egg, Nate, That's that's all. 0:19:40.924 --> 0:19:44.644 I'll say. Eleven nine is the person is right? Shit, 0:19:45.244 --> 0:19:48.244 I love it. I love gts this is GTO. 0:19:48.364 --> 0:19:51.684 Yeah, this is this is the GTO. So we're going 0:19:51.724 --> 0:19:54.324 to give you a GTO lesson on the prices. Right, 0:19:54.364 --> 0:19:57.244 do you're the over under when you see people on 0:19:57.284 --> 0:20:00.564 that game who actually don't know how to play, right, 0:20:00.644 --> 0:20:04.004 and someone already guesses a number, and what are you 0:20:04.044 --> 0:20:05.364 supposed to guess after that night? 0:20:06.484 --> 0:20:09.684 You're supposed to guess a dollar under? Yeah? 0:20:11.444 --> 0:20:14.164 Yeah, yeah, you just do not want to be the 0:20:14.204 --> 0:20:17.564 person who if you can't go over. Yeah, it's it's 0:20:17.604 --> 0:20:22.244 a it's a it's an interesting game theoretical lesson in 0:20:22.324 --> 0:20:25.124 all of these games. I don't watch quiz show games, 0:20:25.164 --> 0:20:28.484 but they all have game theory that you should study 0:20:28.484 --> 0:20:29.884 if you're ever going to be on one of them. 0:20:30.444 --> 0:20:33.404 Do you think anyone's going to be prosecuted with regards 0:20:33.444 --> 0:20:36.084 to the Epstein files, I actually do not. I think 0:20:36.084 --> 0:20:38.524 that this is oh maybe a Democrat, but this has 0:20:38.564 --> 0:20:42.524 to be a prosecution that actually goes forward. Yeah, I 0:20:42.524 --> 0:20:44.884 don't know. I mean, the. 0:20:44.844 --> 0:20:50.244 GP eventually did sign a dispatch petition. I mean, people are. 0:20:53.204 --> 0:20:57.244 I guess I'd say prosecuted by who? By the federal government? Right, 0:20:59.244 --> 0:20:59.764 I guess No. 0:21:00.444 --> 0:21:02.884 I think it's just too messy for Trump to like actually, like. 0:21:02.844 --> 0:21:06.844 It's a little too cavalier for for him to like 0:21:07.884 --> 0:21:10.604 target a Democrat. I mean I don't know, Yeah, I 0:21:10.884 --> 0:21:14.244 just think it feels like then you're encouraging people to 0:21:14.244 --> 0:21:16.604 discuss that story, which I think the White House does 0:21:16.644 --> 0:21:17.324 not want to do. 0:21:17.644 --> 0:21:19.284 Right. Yeah, I think. 0:21:19.084 --> 0:21:23.004 That that's correct. That's why I think now sports, well, 0:21:23.284 --> 0:21:27.324 which league, Nate, we'll have a major gambling scandal next? 0:21:27.564 --> 0:21:30.164 I mean, are we allowed to say that, like they'll 0:21:30.204 --> 0:21:34.044 also be repeats because I think that the you know, 0:21:34.164 --> 0:21:35.844 or do we have to pick a league that hasn't 0:21:35.924 --> 0:21:40.164 had a gambling scandal because I feel like at this point, like, man, 0:21:40.564 --> 0:21:42.244 we're going to see these everywhere. 0:21:43.884 --> 0:21:46.564 Oh. I think college sports are are. 0:21:47.884 --> 0:21:51.164 Right for because they're like some of these students are 0:21:51.204 --> 0:21:56.564