1
00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:13,040
Speaker 1: Ye, Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene

2
00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:17,560
Speaker 1: Jay Lee. We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,

3
00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,520
Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

4
00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:34,680
Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course, on the Bloomberg Nalie

5
00:00:34,680 --> 00:00:37,040
Speaker 1: Bassett dropping by a studio here in New York, Bloomberg's

6
00:00:37,040 --> 00:00:39,400
Speaker 1: investment banking reporter to get us up to speed on

7
00:00:39,400 --> 00:00:41,760
Speaker 1: the numbers Shale. Let's just start with a tough tough

8
00:00:41,840 --> 00:00:45,000
Speaker 1: quarter for the capital markets business. It was really tough,

9
00:00:45,120 --> 00:00:47,720
Speaker 1: especially given that JP Morgan is one of the biggest

10
00:00:47,720 --> 00:00:50,680
Speaker 1: bond trading houses across the world. He didn't say much.

11
00:00:50,800 --> 00:00:53,320
Speaker 1: Jamie Diamond didn't say much in the press release yet

12
00:00:53,360 --> 00:00:57,000
Speaker 1: about what the forward looking guidances for this business, but

13
00:00:57,280 --> 00:00:59,760
Speaker 1: he definitely was hurt by the fixed income business and

14
00:01:00,040 --> 00:01:03,120
Speaker 1: Goodies was pretty much in line with an all us expected.

15
00:01:03,160 --> 00:01:05,760
Speaker 1: It definitely wasn't enough to help trading revenues overall. Q

16
00:01:05,920 --> 00:01:08,160
Speaker 1: four's ancient history. Now we expected it to be bad.

17
00:01:08,240 --> 00:01:10,360
Speaker 1: The only thing that's happened is is it's coming worse

18
00:01:10,440 --> 00:01:12,960
Speaker 1: than many people expected it to be. Similar story with

19
00:01:13,000 --> 00:01:15,959
Speaker 1: City Group yesterday City Group traded lower on the numbers.

20
00:01:16,360 --> 00:01:18,960
Speaker 1: Then as the earning school started and we started to

21
00:01:19,000 --> 00:01:22,920
Speaker 1: look forward through to Q one, enthusiasm built up. What

22
00:01:22,959 --> 00:01:25,720
Speaker 1: does look like and could we see a similar story

23
00:01:25,720 --> 00:01:28,160
Speaker 1: today with JP Morgan. We could see a similar story

24
00:01:28,160 --> 00:01:31,200
Speaker 1: with JP Morgan. But at the first glance, at least

25
00:01:31,280 --> 00:01:34,640
Speaker 1: the lending figures are kind of weak. We're gonna want

26
00:01:34,640 --> 00:01:36,680
Speaker 1: to see what Jimmy Diamond says about the strength of

27
00:01:36,720 --> 00:01:39,440
Speaker 1: the economy moving forward. At City Group, they were saying

28
00:01:39,480 --> 00:01:42,559
Speaker 1: trade wars and all this geopolitical turmoil might not hurt

29
00:01:42,640 --> 00:01:44,440
Speaker 1: until the fourth quarter of this year or later in

30
00:01:44,480 --> 00:01:46,920
Speaker 1: the year, So a couple of quarters of stability might

31
00:01:46,920 --> 00:01:49,080
Speaker 1: be really good for these banks. So walk me through

32
00:01:49,080 --> 00:01:50,800
Speaker 1: the long growth story at the moment, because one thing

33
00:01:50,840 --> 00:01:52,400
Speaker 1: that jumps out to a lot of analysts in the

34
00:01:52,440 --> 00:01:54,720
Speaker 1: early part of the release was just the credit provisions,

35
00:01:54,760 --> 00:01:58,000
Speaker 1: more money set aside to cover potentially souring loans. What's

36
00:01:58,040 --> 00:02:01,280
Speaker 1: the story. You're sanctionally within the numbers, right, the provisions

37
00:02:01,280 --> 00:02:05,160
Speaker 1: for credit losses higher is really a problem. Our colleagues

38
00:02:05,160 --> 00:02:07,840
Speaker 1: on top Live point out that it's mostly from the

39
00:02:07,840 --> 00:02:10,200
Speaker 1: credit card business, which is good news that it's not

40
00:02:10,240 --> 00:02:13,280
Speaker 1: all from the mortgages, especially because mortgages have been having

41
00:02:13,280 --> 00:02:16,600
Speaker 1: a tough market, both at JP Morgan and at City Group.

42
00:02:16,840 --> 00:02:18,600
Speaker 1: So you know, we're gonna want to see color about

43
00:02:18,600 --> 00:02:21,600
Speaker 1: the strength of the American consumer, both in the mortgage markets,

44
00:02:21,600 --> 00:02:24,359
Speaker 1: and then how much JP Morgan is extending loans in

45
00:02:24,400 --> 00:02:26,240
Speaker 1: the small business just working our way through the rest

46
00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:28,160
Speaker 1: of the bank. For the investment bank. A thing that's

47
00:02:28,200 --> 00:02:30,240
Speaker 1: emerging at the moment is M and A Advisory is

48
00:02:30,240 --> 00:02:33,720
Speaker 1: doing okay. Debt underwriting is terrible what you'd expect given

49
00:02:33,760 --> 00:02:36,000
Speaker 1: what happened with leverage loans and fixed income in terms

50
00:02:36,000 --> 00:02:38,480
Speaker 1: of supply going into the year end. Just in terms

51
00:02:38,480 --> 00:02:40,680
Speaker 1: of M and A, is a good pipeline here, a

52
00:02:40,720 --> 00:02:45,919
Speaker 1: good story to sell for the pipeline. He's going to

53
00:02:46,000 --> 00:02:48,000
Speaker 1: have to comment on it right now because the SEC

54
00:02:48,160 --> 00:02:50,560
Speaker 1: is not even taking deals and so the first quarter

55
00:02:50,600 --> 00:02:52,640
Speaker 1: of this year there is a bit of a backlog.

56
00:02:53,040 --> 00:02:55,480
Speaker 1: There's a lot of turmoil, and you know, people don't

57
00:02:55,480 --> 00:02:57,480
Speaker 1: like to do deals when the stock market is moving

58
00:02:57,520 --> 00:02:59,239
Speaker 1: all over the place. You don't know what you're paying,

59
00:02:59,760 --> 00:03:01,120
Speaker 1: And we're gonna want to see what he has to

60
00:03:01,120 --> 00:03:03,080
Speaker 1: say about that, and we're gonna want to see equity

61
00:03:03,160 --> 00:03:06,400
Speaker 1: and debt underwriting figures turn around. They're both down at

62
00:03:06,400 --> 00:03:08,840
Speaker 1: the end of the last year. Right to have us

63
00:03:09,000 --> 00:03:26,800
Speaker 1: with us this morning. Brian Levitt, jointing US Openhama Fun

64
00:03:26,960 --> 00:03:29,880
Speaker 1: Senior Investment Strategistic, joined us on the phone here in

65
00:03:29,919 --> 00:03:32,480
Speaker 1: New York. Brian, it's another big consensus over White. We

66
00:03:32,520 --> 00:03:35,600
Speaker 1: saw this story plan in as well. How does it

67
00:03:35,600 --> 00:03:40,200
Speaker 1: plan for you? So? I think the big story in

68
00:03:41,280 --> 00:03:45,080
Speaker 1: is that we're actually having a slowing economy but probably

69
00:03:45,120 --> 00:03:48,720
Speaker 1: a more a better environment for rates and inflation. So

70
00:03:48,960 --> 00:03:51,400
Speaker 1: I actually think the markets will have a good year

71
00:03:51,880 --> 00:03:55,680
Speaker 1: in but it goes back to the point where investors

72
00:03:55,720 --> 00:03:59,680
Speaker 1: are going to be favoring true growth companies over you know,

73
00:03:59,720 --> 00:04:03,080
Speaker 1: more of the cyclical names in the United States or

74
00:04:03,320 --> 00:04:07,000
Speaker 1: names that are more value oriented. So it's a shift.

75
00:04:07,040 --> 00:04:09,480
Speaker 1: I mean, last year was all about better growth but

76
00:04:09,840 --> 00:04:12,120
Speaker 1: not great policy. This year is going to be about

77
00:04:12,560 --> 00:04:16,800
Speaker 1: slower growth. We suspect better policy, but that takes us

78
00:04:16,839 --> 00:04:19,160
Speaker 1: back to an environment where investors, in our mind bid

79
00:04:19,200 --> 00:04:21,599
Speaker 1: up the true growth companies. So, Brom, what does that

80
00:04:21,640 --> 00:04:23,760
Speaker 1: mean for the nation's banks here in America? As we

81
00:04:23,800 --> 00:04:25,960
Speaker 1: get the earnings yesterday from Steady Group and today from

82
00:04:26,040 --> 00:04:28,280
Speaker 1: JP Morgan and both of them, just in terms of

83
00:04:28,279 --> 00:04:31,040
Speaker 1: the numbers for Q four, which we had expectations come

84
00:04:31,080 --> 00:04:34,640
Speaker 1: in for already disappointing. Yeah, I mean I would. I

85
00:04:34,960 --> 00:04:38,680
Speaker 1: would think that in a slowing growth environment and environment

86
00:04:38,720 --> 00:04:43,440
Speaker 1: where the the yield curve remains relatively flat, that's not

87
00:04:44,040 --> 00:04:46,960
Speaker 1: typically an environment where the financial sector of the nation's

88
00:04:47,040 --> 00:04:49,839
Speaker 1: banks um are among the leaders in the market. I

89
00:04:49,839 --> 00:04:53,279
Speaker 1: don't I don't expect that we're going into an environment where,

90
00:04:54,320 --> 00:04:58,159
Speaker 1: you know, financials are a significant drag on the market,

91
00:04:58,160 --> 00:05:01,200
Speaker 1: But I just suspect market leadership will from elsewhere. Brian.

92
00:05:01,279 --> 00:05:04,279
Speaker 1: Fascinating to me that the market is already getting ahead

93
00:05:04,279 --> 00:05:05,840
Speaker 1: of whether the data is coming through. And what I

94
00:05:05,880 --> 00:05:07,320
Speaker 1: mean by that if you just look at the recent

95
00:05:07,360 --> 00:05:10,799
Speaker 1: survey from Bank America, like this fund manager survey showing

96
00:05:10,880 --> 00:05:15,159
Speaker 1: GDP and earnings growth expectations totally plummeting. You see the

97
00:05:15,320 --> 00:05:18,800
Speaker 1: numbers coming out of China absolutely terrible. But what I'm

98
00:05:18,839 --> 00:05:21,840
Speaker 1: seeing is a market adjusting for maybe a rebound later

99
00:05:21,920 --> 00:05:25,000
Speaker 1: this year. I'm looking at the high yield story in

100
00:05:25,040 --> 00:05:27,840
Speaker 1: Asia and China, the junk bond story. A lot more

101
00:05:27,880 --> 00:05:31,080
Speaker 1: people constructive on that. That's a market that's bid Brian,

102
00:05:31,160 --> 00:05:32,599
Speaker 1: Is that a little bit of a head fake? Is

103
00:05:32,600 --> 00:05:34,599
Speaker 1: that the market going too far ahead of the data

104
00:05:34,760 --> 00:05:37,360
Speaker 1: or is that a story you get behind. Now that's

105
00:05:37,360 --> 00:05:39,279
Speaker 1: a story I would get behind, like I think that.

106
00:05:40,160 --> 00:05:43,320
Speaker 1: What's what's transpired is, you know, the US, we had

107
00:05:43,360 --> 00:05:46,400
Speaker 1: a lot of stimulus, the US decoupled from the rest

108
00:05:46,440 --> 00:05:49,719
Speaker 1: of the world. That led to a strengthening dollar, money

109
00:05:49,760 --> 00:05:51,960
Speaker 1: being sucked out of other parts of the world into

110
00:05:51,960 --> 00:05:54,880
Speaker 1: the United States, oil process collapsing, and that all kind

111
00:05:54,920 --> 00:05:57,960
Speaker 1: of fed on itself, and the FED compounded it by

112
00:05:58,360 --> 00:06:01,000
Speaker 1: suggesting they were going to raise interest it's multiple times.

113
00:06:01,000 --> 00:06:04,600
Speaker 1: We're now seeing the flip side of that, in which

114
00:06:04,640 --> 00:06:08,160
Speaker 1: the US is slowing back to trend. Yeah, China, Um,

115
00:06:08,640 --> 00:06:11,640
Speaker 1: China is weakening, but um, you're starting to see some

116
00:06:11,680 --> 00:06:16,200
Speaker 1: stimulus come through. New credit growth looks favorable, So basically

117
00:06:16,200 --> 00:06:19,000
Speaker 1: a stimulant. The catalyst for the rest of the world

118
00:06:19,120 --> 00:06:21,960
Speaker 1: is the US moving back towards a trend level of growth,

119
00:06:22,200 --> 00:06:26,160
Speaker 1: the rest of the world generally hanging in the dollar moderating.

120
00:06:26,240 --> 00:06:28,880
Speaker 1: That's actually a better environment than what we had in

121
00:06:29,440 --> 00:06:32,640
Speaker 1: eighteen when there was really good growth in the United States,

122
00:06:32,680 --> 00:06:35,120
Speaker 1: but policy that was pretty disruptive to the rest of

123
00:06:35,160 --> 00:06:37,200
Speaker 1: the world. There seems to be a hope, Brian, that

124
00:06:37,360 --> 00:06:39,840
Speaker 1: the stimulus coming through from China will be enough to

125
00:06:39,880 --> 00:06:43,240
Speaker 1: stabilize the economy. It was very incremental to me, and

126
00:06:43,240 --> 00:06:45,000
Speaker 1: there seems to be a shift as well over what

127
00:06:45,080 --> 00:06:47,720
Speaker 1: they want to stimulate the economy with, moving away from

128
00:06:47,760 --> 00:06:51,719
Speaker 1: infrastructure spending, moving away from leaning on monetary policy too heavily,

129
00:06:52,080 --> 00:06:55,640
Speaker 1: and leaning into things like tax cuts. Now, have the

130
00:06:55,680 --> 00:06:59,479
Speaker 1: incremental moves been enough, Will they be enough to turn

131
00:06:59,520 --> 00:07:02,120
Speaker 1: the story around? It's a great point because what you

132
00:07:02,160 --> 00:07:06,159
Speaker 1: had in twenty fifteen and twenty sixteen was significant investment

133
00:07:06,320 --> 00:07:10,160
Speaker 1: that led to significant Chinese growth that lifted up growth

134
00:07:10,200 --> 00:07:13,000
Speaker 1: all around the world, and that was the catalyst. We're

135
00:07:13,040 --> 00:07:15,960
Speaker 1: not getting that this time. So in essence, what you're

136
00:07:16,000 --> 00:07:21,760
Speaker 1: getting is um efforts to stabilize Chinese growth near a

137
00:07:21,880 --> 00:07:26,040
Speaker 1: trend level. And so the catalyst for the rest of

138
00:07:26,080 --> 00:07:28,720
Speaker 1: the world and these higher yielding markets that you're talking

139
00:07:28,760 --> 00:07:32,000
Speaker 1: about is not going to be massive Chinese stimulus. It's

140
00:07:32,000 --> 00:07:36,400
Speaker 1: gonna be what we call stimulus light. So that happens,

141
00:07:36,440 --> 00:07:41,360
Speaker 1: that stabilization happens as the US slows towards trend. It

142
00:07:41,400 --> 00:07:44,720
Speaker 1: doesn't look exactly like fifteen and sixteen, but markets could

143
00:07:44,760 --> 00:07:50,280
Speaker 1: play out similarly because similar to the twenty sixteen UM,

144
00:07:50,280 --> 00:07:53,280
Speaker 1: emerging markets have been beaten up UM and you know,

145
00:07:53,320 --> 00:07:57,040
Speaker 1: investor sentiment has gotten really weak, the dollars pretty strong,

146
00:07:57,600 --> 00:08:00,280
Speaker 1: and you know this this stimulus light at it China

147
00:08:00,360 --> 00:08:02,440
Speaker 1: could be the catalyst to unlock some of that volumee,

148
00:08:02,520 --> 00:08:05,040
Speaker 1: said Brian. Final final question for a lot of investors

149
00:08:05,040 --> 00:08:07,360
Speaker 1: out there who are waiting for the data to confirm

150
00:08:07,400 --> 00:08:10,000
Speaker 1: the turnaround, are you saying that by the time they've

151
00:08:10,040 --> 00:08:11,640
Speaker 1: got that, they're going to miss the big chunk of

152
00:08:11,640 --> 00:08:14,240
Speaker 1: the upside. Yeah, I mean that's how it goes. I

153
00:08:14,600 --> 00:08:17,840
Speaker 1: UM like, I don't think that this cycle ends anytime soon.

154
00:08:17,920 --> 00:08:20,560
Speaker 1: There's really not inflation anywhere in the world. I don't

155
00:08:20,600 --> 00:08:24,600
Speaker 1: see significant excess anywhere in the world. So I suspect

156
00:08:24,680 --> 00:08:27,000
Speaker 1: this is a cycle that goes on longer than people expect.

157
00:08:27,040 --> 00:08:33,000
Speaker 1: I think concerns of recession or hyperbole UM investors should

158
00:08:33,000 --> 00:08:36,439
Speaker 1: be investing. This is one of those big bull markets,

159
00:08:36,559 --> 00:08:39,360
Speaker 1: long term secular bowl markets that we get in our lives.

160
00:08:39,600 --> 00:08:41,360
Speaker 1: I've been told you get three of them when you're

161
00:08:41,360 --> 00:08:43,760
Speaker 1: too young, when you're too old to take advantage of

162
00:08:43,760 --> 00:08:45,800
Speaker 1: the one in the middle, and and that's that's what

163
00:08:45,840 --> 00:08:48,000
Speaker 1: I think investors need to be doing. Hey, Brian, always

164
00:08:48,000 --> 00:08:49,439
Speaker 1: great to catch out with you, Ma up and hand

165
00:08:49,480 --> 00:08:52,000
Speaker 1: a fund senior investment strategist to run us through the

166
00:08:52,000 --> 00:09:09,280
Speaker 1: markets and respond to the latest earnings with us now,

167
00:09:09,400 --> 00:09:12,040
Speaker 1: kenn Ley on c f R A, he's been wonderful

168
00:09:12,080 --> 00:09:15,600
Speaker 1: about giving his bank perspective. Kennon looking at the big

169
00:09:15,679 --> 00:09:20,080
Speaker 1: k X of Keith brianton Wood's bank index down. Maybe

170
00:09:20,160 --> 00:09:24,160
Speaker 1: it's worse now down a nice bounce. Frankly, folks, it's

171
00:09:24,200 --> 00:09:27,920
Speaker 1: an elegant chart showing south Ken Can you be long

172
00:09:28,040 --> 00:09:33,080
Speaker 1: banks right now? You have to be cautious. So um,

173
00:09:33,160 --> 00:09:35,600
Speaker 1: these stocks are beaten up the bowl case if you

174
00:09:35,640 --> 00:09:38,640
Speaker 1: are long, would be there trading below book value. The

175
00:09:38,679 --> 00:09:43,520
Speaker 1: return of capital is significant for buybacks and dividends. Um.

176
00:09:43,559 --> 00:09:46,480
Speaker 1: Some of the businesses are stable, but it was a

177
00:09:46,600 --> 00:09:49,199
Speaker 1: risk class environment. It hurt them in the fourth quarter,

178
00:09:49,600 --> 00:09:52,520
Speaker 1: with them significantly in December. Okay, I'm looking at the

179
00:09:52,600 --> 00:09:54,560
Speaker 1: size and folks. One of the things I always get

180
00:09:54,640 --> 00:09:57,600
Speaker 1: upset about media coverage of the banks is we forget

181
00:09:57,800 --> 00:10:03,120
Speaker 1: how large these companies are. For example, JP Morgan's only

182
00:10:03,160 --> 00:10:06,640
Speaker 1: a hundred gazillion dollars it comes in, they take thirty

183
00:10:06,720 --> 00:10:10,120
Speaker 1: six cents UH down to the operating income line. Their

184
00:10:10,160 --> 00:10:15,679
Speaker 1: net income would make GM blush. Net income is extraordinary, Ken.

185
00:10:15,840 --> 00:10:19,400
Speaker 1: Within trading, how much of it is a variable cost

186
00:10:19,960 --> 00:10:22,640
Speaker 1: and how much is it a fixed cost? Is they

187
00:10:22,760 --> 00:10:27,840
Speaker 1: rationalize out two and three years trading to total net

188
00:10:27,880 --> 00:10:32,200
Speaker 1: revenues for JP Morgan is important. It's just under of

189
00:10:32,280 --> 00:10:36,520
Speaker 1: total net revenues UM. You have to feed the beasts

190
00:10:36,559 --> 00:10:41,719
Speaker 1: the infrastructure for both equity and separately fixed income currency UM.

191
00:10:41,960 --> 00:10:45,679
Speaker 1: So essentially, if you don't have that volume, and we

192
00:10:45,720 --> 00:10:49,640
Speaker 1: didn't have that volume in the sixth income side, even

193
00:10:49,720 --> 00:10:52,840
Speaker 1: with some of the ratcheting down over the last six

194
00:10:52,960 --> 00:10:57,760
Speaker 1: seven years with Dodd Frank Uh, still there wasn't enough activity.

195
00:10:58,160 --> 00:11:01,199
Speaker 1: That hurt. And also you've got to get the trade

196
00:11:01,320 --> 00:11:05,360
Speaker 1: right in terms of the higher riskier areas of fixed

197
00:11:05,440 --> 00:11:08,600
Speaker 1: ink on the derivatives. The big story in Q four

198
00:11:08,679 --> 00:11:10,640
Speaker 1: was that it was bad. The debate, I guess, Ken,

199
00:11:10,720 --> 00:11:13,360
Speaker 1: is to what degree was it bad? We're finding out

200
00:11:13,360 --> 00:11:15,400
Speaker 1: it was worse than a lot of people thought. Fine.

201
00:11:15,520 --> 00:11:18,840
Speaker 1: Q four ancient history. Let's get into a lot of

202
00:11:18,840 --> 00:11:21,120
Speaker 1: people are looking for a window into the broader economy,

203
00:11:21,240 --> 00:11:23,920
Speaker 1: show me the loan growth. How's that story progressing? Do

204
00:11:24,000 --> 00:11:26,280
Speaker 1: you see some positive signs so far? From city group?

205
00:11:26,280 --> 00:11:30,920
Speaker 1: From JP Morgan Kent, the first quarter is very important,

206
00:11:31,120 --> 00:11:34,040
Speaker 1: typically one of the strongest quarters of the year for

207
00:11:34,200 --> 00:11:38,880
Speaker 1: JP Morgan. Um, what comes in reliably has been the

208
00:11:38,960 --> 00:11:43,240
Speaker 1: consumer loans up three and fourth quarter driven mostly by

209
00:11:43,280 --> 00:11:49,520
Speaker 1: consumer and credit card. Commercial lending was down two. Um,

210
00:11:49,880 --> 00:11:53,880
Speaker 1: that's mostly on a down tick on construction real estate loans.

211
00:11:53,960 --> 00:11:57,600
Speaker 1: But UM, yeah, I mean long growth, which is of

212
00:11:57,880 --> 00:12:02,000
Speaker 1: large base in terms of revenues, has to do better. Uh.

213
00:12:02,320 --> 00:12:04,200
Speaker 1: You know. The other factor, and Tom gets at this,

214
00:12:04,720 --> 00:12:08,400
Speaker 1: is that you've got two buckets loans banking, and then

215
00:12:08,440 --> 00:12:11,360
Speaker 1: you also got net interest income. Um. And we don't

216
00:12:11,360 --> 00:12:15,720
Speaker 1: have these steep ascension of rates, which means net interest

217
00:12:15,760 --> 00:12:19,319
Speaker 1: income will grow. But the non parts, as you're addressing here,

218
00:12:19,440 --> 00:12:21,640
Speaker 1: loans has to do a little bit better. In two

219
00:12:21,640 --> 00:12:24,600
Speaker 1: thousand nineteen, credit provisions is a story for this morning

220
00:12:24,840 --> 00:12:27,800
Speaker 1: as well. Can the numbers in JP Morgan suggested a

221
00:12:27,840 --> 00:12:30,280
Speaker 1: bit of a provision build. What are your thoughts on that?

222
00:12:30,320 --> 00:12:34,200
Speaker 1: What do you see in the numbers? Um? Too hard

223
00:12:34,280 --> 00:12:36,800
Speaker 1: to go through every one of the segments. I think

224
00:12:36,800 --> 00:12:39,520
Speaker 1: it's kind of mixed. Um, I didn't see there was

225
00:12:39,559 --> 00:12:44,400
Speaker 1: nothing episodic in Q four two eighteen to say that

226
00:12:44,440 --> 00:12:47,760
Speaker 1: they're behind the curve in terms of provisions allowance for

227
00:12:47,880 --> 00:12:51,400
Speaker 1: doubtful accounts or higher reserves. It's another way, of course.

228
00:12:51,520 --> 00:12:54,240
Speaker 1: Also they get better net income. It's just, you know,

229
00:12:54,600 --> 00:12:57,720
Speaker 1: be too aggressive in the old days, Ken, I'd ask

230
00:12:57,760 --> 00:12:59,920
Speaker 1: you this question. So in honor of the old days,

231
00:13:00,040 --> 00:13:05,280
Speaker 1: le'sk it right now agony brings mergers and acquisitions. Are

232
00:13:05,280 --> 00:13:09,360
Speaker 1: we going to see a new consolidation in various sundry banks?

233
00:13:11,679 --> 00:13:14,920
Speaker 1: So M and A in two thousand eighteen was a

234
00:13:14,960 --> 00:13:19,559
Speaker 1: significant year, but it's concentrated to large deals. Large deals

235
00:13:19,600 --> 00:13:22,760
Speaker 1: if they get done from announced to complete, it take

236
00:13:22,800 --> 00:13:25,800
Speaker 1: twelve to eighteen months. Um. That would be I think

237
00:13:25,840 --> 00:13:29,240
Speaker 1: the story in two thousand nineteen as well. It's mostly

238
00:13:29,480 --> 00:13:32,840
Speaker 1: the America's in Europe. Not to worry about Asia for

239
00:13:33,040 --> 00:13:36,199
Speaker 1: M and A. But to be firing on all cylinders

240
00:13:36,640 --> 00:13:39,760
Speaker 1: on JP Morgan today, in City yesterday, they got to

241
00:13:39,760 --> 00:13:43,360
Speaker 1: get fire up higher growth out of equity underwriting. The

242
00:13:43,400 --> 00:13:46,560
Speaker 1: dead underwriting is kind of fading because that was used

243
00:13:46,640 --> 00:13:50,360
Speaker 1: with tax benefits no longer there to fund stock repurchases.

244
00:13:50,720 --> 00:13:52,680
Speaker 1: He can great to catch up with you. Busy morning

245
00:13:52,720 --> 00:13:54,320
Speaker 1: for you. I'm so so thank you very much for

246
00:13:54,320 --> 00:13:56,959
Speaker 1: giving us your time. Kenley on Global Director of Research.

247
00:13:57,000 --> 00:14:00,160
Speaker 1: It see our a so if that Jp Morgan, we

248
00:14:00,200 --> 00:14:02,040
Speaker 1: have had City. We wait on Goldman over the next

249
00:14:02,040 --> 00:14:05,800
Speaker 1: couple of days and Tom, I think Goldmen will be fascinating.

250
00:14:05,840 --> 00:14:07,760
Speaker 1: I keep calling it a non bank. I know that

251
00:14:07,760 --> 00:14:10,640
Speaker 1: that upsets Mr Solomon and Mr blank find but there

252
00:14:10,640 --> 00:14:15,160
Speaker 1: it is, John the Green today Westminster bells ringing drums.

253
00:14:15,160 --> 00:14:17,760
Speaker 1: I couldn't even hear the guests next to us. It was.

254
00:14:17,840 --> 00:14:20,920
Speaker 1: It was on the edge of John bonhom of of

255
00:14:21,080 --> 00:14:33,480
Speaker 1: led Zeppelin. It was drumming John Bontom at Westminster. John,

256
00:14:33,520 --> 00:14:36,680
Speaker 1: you know this is a band from you know, Jimmy

257
00:14:36,880 --> 00:14:46,440
Speaker 1: Page and Plantifs from the Midlands and John no Zeppelin.

258
00:14:46,560 --> 00:14:48,760
Speaker 1: I thought you were gonna give me the history to Zeppelin.

259
00:14:50,160 --> 00:14:56,360
Speaker 1: Oh great album of all time. Don't tell Robert plants

260
00:14:56,360 --> 00:15:14,080
Speaker 1: out of London and John. Now we have Victoria Houston

261
00:15:14,120 --> 00:15:17,320
Speaker 1: with us on the Institute of Economic Affair, Senior Council,

262
00:15:17,400 --> 00:15:22,480
Speaker 1: the International Trade and Competition Unit. Victoria, you are away

263
00:15:22,520 --> 00:15:27,240
Speaker 1: from the politics. You are away from the actual voting

264
00:15:27,280 --> 00:15:31,400
Speaker 1: tonight and on into tomorrow and the next day. At

265
00:15:31,480 --> 00:15:35,320
Speaker 1: what risk is the UK trade right now? What is

266
00:15:35,320 --> 00:15:38,520
Speaker 1: the single thing that the United Kingdom will give up

267
00:15:38,520 --> 00:15:41,720
Speaker 1: in trade with any kind of defeat for Prime Minister

268
00:15:41,800 --> 00:15:45,680
Speaker 1: may Well, let's be here. A defeat for the Prime

269
00:15:45,720 --> 00:15:49,360
Speaker 1: Minister and for the whistaal agreement at this point only

270
00:15:49,400 --> 00:15:52,160
Speaker 1: means that at this point they have to come back

271
00:15:52,320 --> 00:15:58,040
Speaker 1: with another plan um in um three sitting days time.

272
00:15:58,640 --> 00:16:02,480
Speaker 1: So while I'm sure if the vote were to to

273
00:16:02,560 --> 00:16:05,920
Speaker 1: reject the deal today there would be some repercussions in

274
00:16:06,000 --> 00:16:10,360
Speaker 1: market sentiment, it wouldn't in and of itself mean anything. However,

275
00:16:10,400 --> 00:16:13,920
Speaker 1: if it meant that ultimately the deal was rejected and

276
00:16:14,400 --> 00:16:17,280
Speaker 1: the Prime Minister wasn't able to bring it back to

277
00:16:17,320 --> 00:16:21,760
Speaker 1: the House in any renegotiated form, and so the deal

278
00:16:21,880 --> 00:16:25,120
Speaker 1: ultimately couldn't be agreed at all, and come the twenty

279
00:16:25,200 --> 00:16:29,120
Speaker 1: ninth of March and leave the European Union without overstore agreement,

280
00:16:29,720 --> 00:16:33,560
Speaker 1: then you know that's when that's when the possible disruptions

281
00:16:33,640 --> 00:16:37,760
Speaker 1: to trade would kick in. I mean the disruption to

282
00:16:37,840 --> 00:16:40,560
Speaker 1: trade in the messaging and all the newspapers this morning,

283
00:16:41,240 --> 00:16:44,560
Speaker 1: is this measurement of how long the pain will be

284
00:16:45,040 --> 00:16:48,160
Speaker 1: the leave people say, yes, there's going to be pain,

285
00:16:48,760 --> 00:16:51,720
Speaker 1: will get over it and we'll move on. In the

286
00:16:51,800 --> 00:16:54,840
Speaker 1: remaining people in four differentiates from what I can tell

287
00:16:55,200 --> 00:16:58,720
Speaker 1: say no, there's going to be a permanent disruption to

288
00:16:58,880 --> 00:17:01,800
Speaker 1: trade for an eye the nation. Where do you stand

289
00:17:01,800 --> 00:17:05,879
Speaker 1: on that? Well, I think there's two different sort of sides.

290
00:17:05,960 --> 00:17:10,159
Speaker 1: So that there's the question of the immediate disruption at

291
00:17:10,200 --> 00:17:13,720
Speaker 1: the ports because we've introduced we would have to introduce

292
00:17:14,119 --> 00:17:19,320
Speaker 1: a new range of administrative requirements to import and export goods,

293
00:17:19,880 --> 00:17:23,320
Speaker 1: and there are fears being raised of huge queues and

294
00:17:23,359 --> 00:17:26,200
Speaker 1: tailbacks on the roads leading into Dover and Kelley, the

295
00:17:26,720 --> 00:17:31,480
Speaker 1: main cross channel trade ports. And then there's the aspect

296
00:17:31,600 --> 00:17:35,399
Speaker 1: of the more long term structural impact on our trade.

297
00:17:36,080 --> 00:17:39,560
Speaker 1: And I think the first side, the immediate practical steps,

298
00:17:40,200 --> 00:17:43,200
Speaker 1: I think most people probably acknowledge that that would only

299
00:17:43,280 --> 00:17:49,200
Speaker 1: last a couple of months at worst, while businesses adapt

300
00:17:49,600 --> 00:17:53,960
Speaker 1: and the government believedly starts making the necessary steps that

301
00:17:54,000 --> 00:17:57,240
Speaker 1: it should really have been making, um since immediately after

302
00:17:57,280 --> 00:18:00,719
Speaker 1: the referendum to to make the trade flow. Okay, well,

303
00:18:00,720 --> 00:18:04,960
Speaker 1: the government, the government will take quote unquote necessary steps,

304
00:18:05,000 --> 00:18:10,359
Speaker 1: but on a microeconomic basis, almost a microcosm basis, every

305
00:18:10,400 --> 00:18:14,199
Speaker 1: single business will adapt and adjust in the United Kingdom,

306
00:18:14,240 --> 00:18:17,800
Speaker 1: in Ireland, in Scotland, in Europe and around the world

307
00:18:17,960 --> 00:18:22,320
Speaker 1: to the reality of London just separating away from Europe

308
00:18:22,440 --> 00:18:25,640
Speaker 1: or do you doubt that that will happen. Well, we're

309
00:18:25,680 --> 00:18:28,120
Speaker 1: not leaving the continent of Europe or leaving a set

310
00:18:28,119 --> 00:18:32,200
Speaker 1: of political institutions called the European Union. And in fact,

311
00:18:32,200 --> 00:18:34,959
Speaker 1: the number of businesses in the United Kingdom that trades

312
00:18:35,000 --> 00:18:38,359
Speaker 1: with the European Union is extremely small, um in in

313
00:18:38,880 --> 00:18:42,360
Speaker 1: you know, in aggregate terms, there's only a small percentage,

314
00:18:42,359 --> 00:18:44,439
Speaker 1: maybe six per cent of all businesses in in the

315
00:18:44,480 --> 00:18:48,120
Speaker 1: United Kingdom actually do any trade with CEU. And interesting

316
00:18:48,160 --> 00:18:51,960
Speaker 1: doesn't account for that much of our our GDP. Actually,

317
00:18:52,600 --> 00:18:55,040
Speaker 1: um alth, it's a it's a serious and material part

318
00:18:55,080 --> 00:18:58,560
Speaker 1: of our GP. I think it's about ten ten percent

319
00:18:58,640 --> 00:19:02,040
Speaker 1: of our GP is a constitute of trade with the EU.

320
00:19:02,600 --> 00:19:05,480
Speaker 1: So the idea that we can't survive and the economy

321
00:19:05,520 --> 00:19:09,840
Speaker 1: will will fall off a cliff and um everyone will

322
00:19:10,040 --> 00:19:12,680
Speaker 1: you end up scavenging on the streets for food is

323
00:19:13,280 --> 00:19:16,200
Speaker 1: really quite mistaste. Now some of that is out there

324
00:19:16,240 --> 00:19:21,679
Speaker 1: to say the least victory, Thank you so much, greatly

325
00:19:21,720 --> 00:19:24,960
Speaker 1: greatly appreciated this morning a fair senior council to the

326
00:19:24,960 --> 00:19:43,639
Speaker 1: International Trading Competition Unit. We greatly appreciate that. Paul Sweeney

327
00:19:43,640 --> 00:19:45,560
Speaker 1: in New York. I'm Tom Keenan London and with us

328
00:19:45,680 --> 00:19:50,800
Speaker 1: John Taylor, Stanford University, Professor Taylor. I've had the honors

329
00:19:50,800 --> 00:19:52,879
Speaker 1: speaking to you any number of times about this, but

330
00:19:52,960 --> 00:19:56,800
Speaker 1: let's revisit Taylor nine eight. John, this is a few

331
00:19:56,880 --> 00:20:01,119
Speaker 1: years ago. You were sixteen a protege. You remember this well,

332
00:20:01,840 --> 00:20:05,920
Speaker 1: and you and Gary mcelvo talking about sticky price's nominal

333
00:20:06,000 --> 00:20:11,320
Speaker 1: rigidities in wage, in price stickiness, and to bring that

334
00:20:11,400 --> 00:20:15,640
Speaker 1: forward to where we are now, Professor Taylor, the conundrum

335
00:20:15,680 --> 00:20:19,920
Speaker 1: for America has been wages that wouldn't go up. How

336
00:20:20,000 --> 00:20:24,919
Speaker 1: sticky are wages right now? That's thanks for bringing that

337
00:20:25,000 --> 00:20:28,119
Speaker 1: research up, but people still talking about it all after

338
00:20:28,119 --> 00:20:31,000
Speaker 1: all these years. And I think the reason is that

339
00:20:31,359 --> 00:20:36,040
Speaker 1: stickiness really had to reflect underlying fundamentals over time. So

340
00:20:36,080 --> 00:20:39,520
Speaker 1: if you don't have productivity, growth, if you don't have

341
00:20:39,640 --> 00:20:44,600
Speaker 1: the things that earnings, you don't get the wages. That's

342
00:20:44,680 --> 00:20:47,240
Speaker 1: that's what's all about. And this is important from London,

343
00:20:47,320 --> 00:20:49,879
Speaker 1: Professor Taylor, because if I go back to Clement Atlee,

344
00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:53,760
Speaker 1: World War Two, the mystery that Kane's faced of ugly unemployment,

345
00:20:54,040 --> 00:20:57,600
Speaker 1: this election, to this vote tonight. Rather hearkens back to

346
00:20:57,680 --> 00:21:01,800
Speaker 1: the twenties in England, which weren't like the twenties in America.

347
00:21:01,880 --> 00:21:05,240
Speaker 1: We had an industrial revolution. Then maybe they didn't in England,

348
00:21:05,400 --> 00:21:10,080
Speaker 1: Ramsey Donald and the sum of this is, we've been

349
00:21:10,080 --> 00:21:15,000
Speaker 1: here before, haven't we. Yes, Uh, there's an up and

350
00:21:15,080 --> 00:21:17,840
Speaker 1: down similarities in the cycle. I think the big decision

351
00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:21,800
Speaker 1: in uh London right now is key. I think they've

352
00:21:21,880 --> 00:21:23,520
Speaker 1: laid it out. I don't know what's going to happen.

353
00:21:23,520 --> 00:21:26,639
Speaker 1: You're you're closer than I am. But you did have

354
00:21:26,760 --> 00:21:29,399
Speaker 1: some good times in the twenties. They didn't last. Theories

355
00:21:29,440 --> 00:21:33,399
Speaker 1: were terrible on all over the world, Professor. We're experiencing

356
00:21:33,400 --> 00:21:36,000
Speaker 1: this country something you know, I guess a little bit unique.

357
00:21:36,000 --> 00:21:39,720
Speaker 1: That is a partial government shutdown. Do you expect this

358
00:21:40,119 --> 00:21:43,040
Speaker 1: shutdown to have any impact on the economy. The markets

359
00:21:43,160 --> 00:21:46,800
Speaker 1: seem to be, you know, pretty much shrugging it off. Yeah,

360
00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:49,480
Speaker 1: I don't think so. At this point, people talking about

361
00:21:49,520 --> 00:21:52,400
Speaker 1: the FETs not getting the data coming in, but they

362
00:21:52,400 --> 00:21:54,520
Speaker 1: have less of ways to understand what the data is.

363
00:21:54,560 --> 00:21:57,960
Speaker 1: I think there's certain people that are are hurting, that's

364
00:21:58,000 --> 00:22:01,720
Speaker 1: for sure, But the overall economy, UH, thus far, it's

365
00:22:01,760 --> 00:22:04,520
Speaker 1: doing fine. I think there's other other factors, of course

366
00:22:05,040 --> 00:22:07,440
Speaker 1: in the economy that people are talking about, which tend

367
00:22:07,480 --> 00:22:09,800
Speaker 1: to be bigger than the shutdown in terms of the

368
00:22:09,880 --> 00:22:12,159
Speaker 1: overall economy. And what are some of those out on

369
00:22:12,200 --> 00:22:15,800
Speaker 1: the top of your list. Well, I've actually been positive

370
00:22:16,160 --> 00:22:18,960
Speaker 1: that some of the changes we had in the last

371
00:22:19,000 --> 00:22:22,520
Speaker 1: year and a half, the tax reform, regulatory reform. We

372
00:22:22,560 --> 00:22:26,520
Speaker 1: talked about the FED already that the concerns are are

373
00:22:26,560 --> 00:22:28,800
Speaker 1: are just doesn't want to us forever. And we've got

374
00:22:28,800 --> 00:22:30,600
Speaker 1: a lot of alto in the markets, and people are

375
00:22:30,600 --> 00:22:34,600
Speaker 1: talking about the history. John Taylor from and this is

376
00:22:34,680 --> 00:22:37,280
Speaker 1: Stan Fisher, I believe in seventies seven and goes on

377
00:22:37,359 --> 00:22:41,240
Speaker 1: to Manqueu and others. Is if we look at wages

378
00:22:41,280 --> 00:22:45,160
Speaker 1: in the overlays. You mentioned earlier productivity and technology one

379
00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:47,360
Speaker 1: of the new themes, and folks, this is a strange

380
00:22:47,440 --> 00:22:53,080
Speaker 1: word that's not spoken too often. There are monopxanistic tendencies

381
00:22:53,840 --> 00:22:58,400
Speaker 1: within our companies and within the dominance of companies where

382
00:22:58,440 --> 00:23:02,720
Speaker 1: they control the wage now like they used to not

383
00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:06,360
Speaker 1: to do you buy the idea that it's a different

384
00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:11,720
Speaker 1: wage calculus now because of the dominance of business. I

385
00:23:11,760 --> 00:23:15,960
Speaker 1: think there's some evidence, uh that people have pointed to

386
00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:19,640
Speaker 1: about Monopsony orle Ashtonfelder is one of them at Princeton.

387
00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:23,520
Speaker 1: I don't think it's affecting the overall trend and wages.

388
00:23:23,560 --> 00:23:26,000
Speaker 1: I think that really is more productive and that's more

389
00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:29,280
Speaker 1: the basic economy. But yeah, you can find elements of this,

390
00:23:29,560 --> 00:23:34,520
Speaker 1: elements of probably just the differences from competition all the time.

391
00:23:34,600 --> 00:23:37,680
Speaker 1: That's why I have more competitive markets, just because the

392
00:23:37,760 --> 00:23:40,280
Speaker 1: time Paul Sweenia and I Professor Taylor have to switch

393
00:23:40,320 --> 00:23:44,679
Speaker 1: to the acclaim of rules versus discretion. Where are the

394
00:23:44,800 --> 00:23:47,640
Speaker 1: rules right now? Is there a rule book for Chairman

395
00:23:47,680 --> 00:23:51,879
Speaker 1: Paul Well, you know they've written a lot and in

396
00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:54,160
Speaker 1: the last year and a half about rules. In their

397
00:23:54,160 --> 00:23:57,320
Speaker 1: Monterey report, he's talked about it. The new vice chair

398
00:23:57,880 --> 00:24:00,160
Speaker 1: Ric Claren has done fun and metal work about out.

399
00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:03,000
Speaker 1: They're referring to it in there in their speeches, so

400
00:24:03,040 --> 00:24:05,080
Speaker 1: I think they're they're trying to get back to this.

401
00:24:05,240 --> 00:24:08,840
Speaker 1: It's it's never rocket science, but there's some good degree

402
00:24:09,040 --> 00:24:12,560
Speaker 1: of predictability. They emphasize a lot, whether it's the balance

403
00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:16,840
Speaker 1: sheet actions or interest rate actions. So we've been off

404
00:24:16,840 --> 00:24:18,720
Speaker 1: for this for a while, so it's not easy to

405
00:24:18,760 --> 00:24:21,840
Speaker 1: get back. But I think you're seeing some signs. So

406
00:24:21,920 --> 00:24:24,640
Speaker 1: Professor just following up on that, particularly on the FED

407
00:24:24,720 --> 00:24:27,959
Speaker 1: and it's unwinding of its balance sheet. How aggressive do

408
00:24:28,040 --> 00:24:30,520
Speaker 1: you believe the Fed should be going forward with this

409
00:24:30,560 --> 00:24:34,320
Speaker 1: balance sheet? You know, I think they've done a good

410
00:24:34,400 --> 00:24:37,360
Speaker 1: job since the old tapeer tantrum, which was quite chaotic,

411
00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:40,240
Speaker 1: remember back to five years ago, but they learned from

412
00:24:40,280 --> 00:24:43,160
Speaker 1: that and have been quite clear about what they're trying

413
00:24:43,200 --> 00:24:47,600
Speaker 1: to do. It's Uh, it's predictable, and that's that's what's good.

414
00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:50,080
Speaker 1: I think there's lots of debate about its impact. I

415
00:24:50,119 --> 00:24:53,560
Speaker 1: don't see much impact on the markets at this point

416
00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:56,520
Speaker 1: because it's predictable and understandable. I hope they continue it

417
00:24:56,560 --> 00:24:59,200
Speaker 1: that way. Of course, they'll be adjusting it and there's

418
00:24:59,240 --> 00:25:02,120
Speaker 1: a big decision they're making this year about where they're

419
00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:05,159
Speaker 1: going eventually with the balance sheet. So Professor is a

420
00:25:05,200 --> 00:25:08,000
Speaker 1: former Treasury official. We would love to get your thoughts

421
00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:11,120
Speaker 1: on trade. Uh, it looks like this administration is much

422
00:25:11,160 --> 00:25:16,800
Speaker 1: more comfortable with UM unilateral UH and bilateral type negotiations.

423
00:25:16,840 --> 00:25:19,920
Speaker 1: And after the renegotiation, how do you feel or how

424
00:25:19,920 --> 00:25:22,919
Speaker 1: do you view this administration's view towards trade and how

425
00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:25,440
Speaker 1: do you think that's going to contribute or hinder the

426
00:25:25,480 --> 00:25:29,600
Speaker 1: global economy. So it's it's quite different. And they've ever

427
00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:33,159
Speaker 1: redone aft, of course, and there's more discussions with Europe

428
00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:35,639
Speaker 1: in different ways. And the big question now is China.

429
00:25:36,080 --> 00:25:38,520
Speaker 1: I think what they've pointed to is there's some some

430
00:25:38,600 --> 00:25:42,000
Speaker 1: trade practices in China they're trying to adjust. I think

431
00:25:42,000 --> 00:25:44,359
Speaker 1: of the Chinese response to that it will be like

432
00:25:44,440 --> 00:25:47,760
Speaker 1: what happened with the new after what happened with Europe.

433
00:25:47,760 --> 00:25:50,520
Speaker 1: But we're not there yet. I think it's it's different.

434
00:25:51,040 --> 00:25:53,679
Speaker 1: The strategy is different. I don't think the goal is

435
00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:56,960
Speaker 1: different quite frankly, the goal is to reduce trade barriers

436
00:25:57,000 --> 00:25:59,600
Speaker 1: around the world, but the strategy to get there what's

437
00:25:59,600 --> 00:26:02,560
Speaker 1: happening is different than in the past. Well, you mentioned China.

438
00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:05,600
Speaker 1: How concerned are you buy maybe just the rhetoric that

439
00:26:05,600 --> 00:26:08,800
Speaker 1: we're seeing going back and forth between the US and China.

440
00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:12,640
Speaker 1: Is this something that the Chinese, from their perspective, need

441
00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:14,919
Speaker 1: to get something done with the U? S How do

442
00:26:14,960 --> 00:26:17,160
Speaker 1: you how do you think that's going to play out. Yeah,

443
00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:19,960
Speaker 1: I think the Chinese do need to get something done.

444
00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:24,520
Speaker 1: There's there's various things, Uh, there's tariffs, there's a restrictions

445
00:26:24,560 --> 00:26:27,960
Speaker 1: owner ownership. There's various things they could do. And I

446
00:26:28,000 --> 00:26:33,040
Speaker 1: think the more that there's a focus on those details. Unfortunately,

447
00:26:33,160 --> 00:26:36,840
Speaker 1: details are hard to focus on. But the more there is,

448
00:26:36,880 --> 00:26:39,320
Speaker 1: the better that will be and you'll take away some

449
00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:43,960
Speaker 1: of this clamoring. Let's not be strangers this year, Professor Taylor,

450
00:26:44,040 --> 00:26:46,880
Speaker 1: thank you so much. John Taylor is at Stanford University.

451
00:26:47,400 --> 00:26:51,960
Speaker 1: His public service at Treasury during two thousand one and

452
00:26:52,000 --> 00:26:54,560
Speaker 1: two thousand two is noted, and of course his work

453
00:26:54,600 --> 00:26:59,120
Speaker 1: in monetary theory UH needs no introduction or review. John

454
00:26:59,119 --> 00:27:09,240
Speaker 1: Taylor of Stand for That University, Thanks for listening to

455
00:27:09,280 --> 00:27:13,800
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on

456
00:27:13,880 --> 00:27:19,720
Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm

457
00:27:19,720 --> 00:27:23,040
Speaker 1: on Twitter at Tom Keane before the podcast. You can

458
00:27:23,080 --> 00:27:26,280
Speaker 1: always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio