WEBVTT - Bitcoin Tops $72,000 0:00:02.960 --> 0:00:08.680 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 0:00:09.960 --> 0:00:13.840 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 0:00:13.920 --> 0:00:17.040 weekdays at ten am Eastern on Affo, cardplay and Android 0:00:17.040 --> 0:00:20.160 Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 0:00:20.200 --> 0:00:24.520 you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:00:25.480 --> 0:00:28.480 It feels like a quiet Monday, and the asset that's 0:00:28.520 --> 0:00:30.800 moving is definitely gonna be Bitcoin and all the crypto 0:00:30.880 --> 0:00:33.600 related stocks. We've got to go to Mike mcloon, Bloomberg Intelligence, 0:00:33.600 --> 0:00:36.720 Senior Commodities Strategies. Not to mention that gold's little softer 0:00:36.840 --> 0:00:39.360 at the moment, but that's also still at a record 0:00:39.400 --> 0:00:41.879 for reasons. It's really hard, I think to pinpoint that 0:00:42.080 --> 0:00:44.400 reason for it. Hey, Mike, first of all, start with 0:00:44.400 --> 0:00:48.760 bitcoin here, what if you say having I mean, come on, now, 0:00:48.800 --> 0:00:50.240 what else is leading this rally? 0:00:51.400 --> 0:00:54.120 So it's mostly ETF inflows. 0:00:54.200 --> 0:00:57.520 Alex it was about I think it was January tenth 0:00:57.720 --> 0:00:59.920 that they're first launching his country. What it was almost 0:01:00.080 --> 0:01:02.440 almost a dozen of them, and the inflows have been 0:01:02.480 --> 0:01:04.959 shockingly strong. So I just looked in the numbers on 0:01:05.000 --> 0:01:08.160 the terminal. Right now, the total mount tracking Bitcoin and 0:01:08.240 --> 0:01:11.480 ETF now is about seventy billion dollars. I compare that 0:01:11.520 --> 0:01:13.560 to gold, which is stuck around one hundred and eighty 0:01:13.560 --> 0:01:17.280 four billion, it's about forty percent. So massive inflows and 0:01:17.319 --> 0:01:20.000 the having the cut and supply basically around tax day. 0:01:20.040 --> 0:01:22.959 It's a pretty significant sweet spot for bitcoin. But I 0:01:23.040 --> 0:01:26.280 find most significant lately is the fact that bitcoin is 0:01:26.280 --> 0:01:29.280 showing divergent strength versus beta, with the S and P 0:01:29.400 --> 0:01:30.720 five hundred down this morning. 0:01:31.080 --> 0:01:31.280 Yeah. 0:01:31.280 --> 0:01:33.360 I guess one thing about bitcoin, though, is that is 0:01:33.360 --> 0:01:36.080 a question about volume. We've got a supply shortage, and 0:01:36.160 --> 0:01:38.800 yet there's tens of billions of dollars trading every day. 0:01:38.800 --> 0:01:40.199 How do you square these two things. 0:01:41.360 --> 0:01:44.559 Well, it's not so much a supply storage shortage. I guess, 0:01:44.560 --> 0:01:46.360 it's just you can see it coming down. It's something 0:01:46.400 --> 0:01:48.840 that it's the high price care that affects all commodities. 0:01:48.880 --> 0:01:50.680 With the exception of gold, you don't have that supply 0:01:50.800 --> 0:01:52.960 coming on with higher prices. But I love when you 0:01:53.000 --> 0:01:56.440 mentioned volume because I love clicking on coin marketcap dot 0:01:56.440 --> 0:02:00.560 com and checking volume and the volume of Heather, the 0:02:00.640 --> 0:02:03.600 number one traded token of which is the US dollar, 0:02:03.680 --> 0:02:06.640 is basically double bitcoin on a twenty four hour basis, 0:02:06.680 --> 0:02:08.600 and it's it's market caps up to one hundred and 0:02:08.639 --> 0:02:10.639 twenty one hundred and two billion now. So it's one 0:02:10.639 --> 0:02:12.000 thing that a lot of people don't know in the 0:02:12.040 --> 0:02:15.680 space is bitcoin is speculative. Yes, it's a replacement for gold. 0:02:15.720 --> 0:02:18.520 It's a digital version. But in this space, the most 0:02:18.560 --> 0:02:20.400 widely traded acid is the dollar. 0:02:21.639 --> 0:02:25.200 When you look at say the offshoots of crypto, like 0:02:25.280 --> 0:02:29.520 the stocks he exchanges, the miners, et cetera, are they 0:02:29.560 --> 0:02:31.760 trading as well as the underlying asset. 0:02:32.639 --> 0:02:34.880 Yes, well, I guess we have to mention micro strategy. 0:02:34.919 --> 0:02:36.800 We've all heard Michael Saylor. I just saw him on 0:02:36.840 --> 0:02:39.720 a few other programs. Chasing on a one year basis, 0:02:39.800 --> 0:02:42.840 micro strategy is up almost six hundred percent compared to 0:02:42.880 --> 0:02:45.560 bitcoin of two hundred and thirty percent. And the significance 0:02:45.600 --> 0:02:48.080 of him is he's been buying bitcoin. He's one of 0:02:48.120 --> 0:02:50.320 the stages that really got me somewh at Bullish a 0:02:50.360 --> 0:02:52.720 few years ago when he's pointing out the history and 0:02:52.720 --> 0:02:55.040 he says, hey, the world's going digital. This is a 0:02:55.240 --> 0:02:58.480 potentially replacement of the dollar, not so much the dollar, 0:02:58.480 --> 0:03:01.520 but of gold. And he's been converting a lot of 0:03:01.560 --> 0:03:04.959 micro strategy strategy to buying bitcoin rather than doing other 0:03:05.000 --> 0:03:06.880 things in technology. 0:03:06.800 --> 0:03:09.160 I guess. But if you go back to your point 0:03:09.160 --> 0:03:11.919 that we started out with on the ETF flows, I mean, 0:03:11.960 --> 0:03:15.200 who are the winners and losers here amongst the ETF providers. 0:03:15.240 --> 0:03:17.760 I mean, is this still a black Rock versus everyone 0:03:17.760 --> 0:03:20.799 else story? Or is there something more interesting to think about. 0:03:20.600 --> 0:03:24.280 That The biggest winner is great Scale. They're the ones, 0:03:24.280 --> 0:03:26.560 so we got to remember they kind of tilted this over. 0:03:26.680 --> 0:03:29.480 Michael Schoenstein of gray Scale is the one who initiated 0:03:29.520 --> 0:03:33.160 the litigation with the SEC and he took a major risk. 0:03:33.240 --> 0:03:35.720 I call it profiles and courage, and he won. So 0:03:35.840 --> 0:03:40.320 right now, Grayscale, the GBTC, the Greyscale Bitcoin Trust is 0:03:40.400 --> 0:03:43.680 about twenty eight billion, and the next is the I 0:03:43.840 --> 0:03:47.280 Shares Bitcoin Trust about thirteen billion. But the thing about 0:03:47.320 --> 0:03:49.480 I Shore's Bitcoin trust is that didn't exist just a 0:03:49.480 --> 0:03:51.720 few months ago, and Grayscale was higher. So a lot 0:03:51.720 --> 0:03:54.080 of that money's migrated. But now it's just net inflows, 0:03:54.080 --> 0:03:55.800 and I think it's at the stage we're hearing this 0:03:55.840 --> 0:03:58.760 from professional money managers are tilting that way. And that's 0:03:58.800 --> 0:04:01.600 what really struck me. When to the ETF conference about 0:04:01.600 --> 0:04:06.160 a month ago in Miami, Eric Belchuna's moderated panel, and 0:04:06.200 --> 0:04:09.360 there was so much interest from these you know, i'd 0:04:09.360 --> 0:04:11.560 say professional money manners in bitcoin. 0:04:12.000 --> 0:04:14.920 Well that really that's my question. Do if all of 0:04:14.960 --> 0:04:18.080 a sudden, Bitcoin, for whatever reason, sort of tanks twenty thousand, right, 0:04:18.160 --> 0:04:20.279 it's super volatile asset, right, Like, no one's pretending that 0:04:20.279 --> 0:04:23.239 it's not. Do those people that want a one percent 0:04:23.240 --> 0:04:26.200 allocation in their portfolio to bitcoin care or is this 0:04:26.279 --> 0:04:30.600 now a long buy and hold strategy with some traders 0:04:30.640 --> 0:04:31.839 trading around the volatility. 0:04:33.000 --> 0:04:35.359 Obviously it's the number one traded I like call it 0:04:35.360 --> 0:04:37.600 the number one traded acid on the planet, twenty four 0:04:37.600 --> 0:04:39.800 to seven, number one leading indicator alex. But I think 0:04:39.800 --> 0:04:41.840 what's happening now is we're in the early days of 0:04:42.440 --> 0:04:46.520 the institutional the rias in pension funds and downments getting 0:04:46.520 --> 0:04:49.480 allocated in this space. They're starting with one percent. Yeah, 0:04:49.520 --> 0:04:52.520 of course they care, but they're there. The back tests 0:04:52.520 --> 0:04:55.440 look too good. Unfortunately. I like to pair it with gold, 0:04:55.680 --> 0:04:58.400 and I think it's one of those spaces it's either 0:04:58.440 --> 0:04:59.000 way it goes. 0:04:59.040 --> 0:05:01.719 It's just it's just early days those inflows. 0:05:01.760 --> 0:05:03.800 What thing really shocked me was I didn't think there 0:05:03.839 --> 0:05:06.800 would be that much interest in these ETFs. 0:05:06.560 --> 0:05:08.360 And you just got to follow the money. It's very 0:05:08.400 --> 0:05:09.280 strong inflows. 0:05:09.480 --> 0:05:11.440 Yeah, you know, as you say, it's early days for 0:05:11.520 --> 0:05:15.279 this ETF strategy. And how do you compare this to 0:05:15.320 --> 0:05:18.080 the birth of other ETF's markets, Like what can we expect? 0:05:18.120 --> 0:05:20.599 Can we expect a whole lot more players or is 0:05:20.640 --> 0:05:22.440 it all going to get weeded out very quickly? 0:05:23.480 --> 0:05:25.760 That's the thing. It's broken all the records. Compared to 0:05:25.880 --> 0:05:29.760 GLD or even SPY their early days, it's broken all 0:05:29.800 --> 0:05:32.520 the records. It's it's basically the benchmark now for it, 0:05:32.640 --> 0:05:34.200 and I don't think we'll ever be able to match it. 0:05:34.200 --> 0:05:37.320 The thing is, I compare it somewhat into Tesla. Tesla 0:05:37.400 --> 0:05:40.719 pays pays, spends nothing on advertising. They don't have to 0:05:40.880 --> 0:05:43.799 because everybody loves Tesla. Bitcoins the same way. There's nothing 0:05:43.800 --> 0:05:46.520 to advertise it. But it's so in your face. It's 0:05:46.520 --> 0:05:48.159 one of those things I put on my d E lists. 0:05:48.200 --> 0:05:50.560 I try to deliberately ignore, but I can't because you 0:05:50.640 --> 0:05:51.560 just hear about it and. 0:05:51.560 --> 0:05:53.880 Read about it everywhere. So that to me is what's happening. 0:05:53.880 --> 0:05:57.240 And it's just that significant of an asset at the moment, 0:05:57.360 --> 0:06:00.719 and at some point, yes, it should have a good correction. 0:06:00.800 --> 0:06:02.640 The key thing that's been bothering me is we've had 0:06:02.720 --> 0:06:04.919 basically straight up in the S and B five hundred 0:06:04.920 --> 0:06:06.039 since the low in October. 0:06:06.320 --> 0:06:06.960 No correction. 0:06:07.040 --> 0:06:09.280 The most significant correction was the first week of the 0:06:09.320 --> 0:06:11.479 year is one point five percent. But we've had good 0:06:11.480 --> 0:06:14.120 corrections in gold, which founded a good foundation. We've had 0:06:14.120 --> 0:06:17.159 good corrections at bitcoin, which formed a good foundation, you know, 0:06:17.240 --> 0:06:19.680 flushes out the week longs. We haven't had that in 0:06:19.680 --> 0:06:21.680 the stock market, and that's what I'm afraid we're way 0:06:21.720 --> 0:06:23.760 over due for it. Just a normal ten percent correction, 0:06:23.839 --> 0:06:26.200 you know, like used to happen. How does bitcoin respond 0:06:26.240 --> 0:06:28.120 in that space? And I think what's happening now, Sure 0:06:28.160 --> 0:06:30.480 it should go down, but we think the responsive buyers 0:06:30.480 --> 0:06:32.120 will be greater in bitcoin. 0:06:31.880 --> 0:06:33.960 So basically it's going to go down less. This is 0:06:34.040 --> 0:06:37.040 totally the classic gold argument too, like when everything goes down, 0:06:37.120 --> 0:06:39.440 so does gold, but it goes down less Bitcoin the same. 0:06:39.480 --> 0:06:42.440 Then, yes, well it did initially two thousand and eight. 0:06:42.480 --> 0:06:44.640 But the difference with gold now is it it's basically 0:06:44.680 --> 0:06:47.120 been unchanged for three years. It's had that time correction, 0:06:47.400 --> 0:06:49.760 it's had that little correction this year down to two thousand, 0:06:50.080 --> 0:06:52.159 and that's the difference with the S and B five hundred. 0:06:52.160 --> 0:06:54.000 I love watching the E mini weeklies. I used to 0:06:54.040 --> 0:06:54.440 trade them. 0:06:54.440 --> 0:06:57.360 There's a gap and WENT mini weeklies from last year 0:06:57.400 --> 0:06:59.080 when we broke out and the Powell pivot. 0:06:59.320 --> 0:07:01.440 It's about TEMP ten percent below the market. 0:07:01.480 --> 0:07:03.400 We've never left the gap in the S and P 0:07:03.600 --> 0:07:06.560 mini since trading A nineteen ninety seven on a weekly basis, 0:07:06.800 --> 0:07:08.120 So that kind of stuff concerns me. 0:07:09.600 --> 0:07:12.160 Okay, one last question for you if you don't mind. 0:07:12.520 --> 0:07:15.080 For bitcoin mines. He doesn't like talking about bitcoin at all. 0:07:15.240 --> 0:07:17.160 No, No, I think I'll think I'll just say this one. 0:07:17.200 --> 0:07:18.400 I want to get out of here. Back to the song. 0:07:18.480 --> 0:07:21.280 If we do see an SMP correction anytime this year, 0:07:21.880 --> 0:07:23.320 how do you what do you think the margin's going 0:07:23.400 --> 0:07:25.640 to be like between the Bitcoin correction and the SMP correction. 0:07:26.520 --> 0:07:29.920 Typically Bitcoin trades with about a three x beta or 0:07:30.040 --> 0:07:33.440 three x volatility. You know, if it SMP corrects ten percent, 0:07:33.480 --> 0:07:36.040 Bitcoin goes down thirty percent. But what it's showing right 0:07:36.120 --> 0:07:38.640 now is divergent strength. As you see it today, S 0:07:38.720 --> 0:07:42.160 and P five hundreds down, Bitcoin's up. So if it 0:07:42.240 --> 0:07:45.000 was put this way, a successful divergent strength with to 0:07:45.040 --> 0:07:47.920 save the SMP five five hundred corrects ten percent and 0:07:47.920 --> 0:07:50.720 bitcoin corrects only ten or fifteen percent. That's a sign 0:07:50.760 --> 0:07:54.360 of divergent strength. Right now, stock market's going up and bitcoins. 0:07:54.440 --> 0:07:56.720 I'm sorry, stock Mark's going down and bitcoin's going up. Now, 0:07:56.800 --> 0:07:59.520 that's somewhat unstoppable for money flows. If people see this 0:07:59.560 --> 0:08:02.280 as a ursa fire's going to be. It's gonna just 0:08:02.960 --> 0:08:04.880 the horde will come. And that's what I'm afraid of. 0:08:05.400 --> 0:08:07.640 Hey, my really good perspective. Love that you look a 0:08:07.680 --> 0:08:09.720 little tan. How's that sun there in Florida? 0:08:10.040 --> 0:08:12.040 It's it's rough. I mean, the vitamin D is great, 0:08:12.120 --> 0:08:12.720 keeps you healthy. 0:08:13.560 --> 0:08:17.000 Mike mcgloan, Paul SMENI always jealous that Mike. When is 0:08:17.000 --> 0:08:19.600 his way to Florida? Mike mcgloan, he covers everything a 0:08:19.640 --> 0:08:24.680 commodities research focused for a Bloomberg Intelligence. I mean I 0:08:24.680 --> 0:08:26.680 think that once I get positive on bitcoin, then we 0:08:26.720 --> 0:08:27.960 probably have a problem. 0:08:28.200 --> 0:08:30.560 Oh that would definitely be a signal for myself if 0:08:30.600 --> 0:08:32.360 I'm starting to look at it, and that would mean 0:08:32.400 --> 0:08:33.360 so that right, I. 0:08:33.360 --> 0:08:34.880 Mean, that's what I'm looking at. But it's going to 0:08:34.920 --> 0:08:36.839 be interesting. I think just in terms of how much 0:08:36.840 --> 0:08:40.160 portfolios wind up allocating, right, Like I remember this with gold, 0:08:40.200 --> 0:08:41.520 I mean back in the day. You know, if you 0:08:41.520 --> 0:08:44.520 have central banks reallocate by one per extra percent, it 0:08:44.520 --> 0:08:46.640 would be a huge boon to gold prices. And you 0:08:46.679 --> 0:08:49.040 have to wonder beating a ten percent portfolio for people 0:08:49.080 --> 0:08:50.680 or is it really just going to be one percent? 0:08:51.120 --> 0:08:53.440 And that what that shift actually winds up looking like. 0:08:53.640 --> 0:08:55.520 But that's the issue. It's like where does central banks 0:08:55.520 --> 0:08:57.800 stand on the matter. And there's a lot of unhappy 0:08:58.000 --> 0:09:00.480 not unhappiness, but a lot of reluctance. I mean, Powell 0:09:00.559 --> 0:09:03.440 last week said pretty firmly the FED is not anywhere 0:09:03.480 --> 0:09:05.560 near there yet. So we're not going to have that 0:09:05.640 --> 0:09:07.240 dynamic anytime soon to worry about. 0:09:07.360 --> 0:09:09.439 John Tucker, you got bitcoin that portfolio? 0:09:09.760 --> 0:09:12.480 Uh no, that's the one. I don't have. 0:09:12.679 --> 0:09:13.679 The crypto stocks. 0:09:14.000 --> 0:09:14.679 My no. 0:09:15.080 --> 0:09:18.640 My philosophy is if you don't understand its, stay far 0:09:18.760 --> 0:09:19.319 far away. 0:09:19.960 --> 0:09:21.640 I know, but at some point we're gonna look at 0:09:21.679 --> 0:09:22.800 it and be like, we got to get into that. 0:09:24.400 --> 0:09:28.280 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 0:09:28.360 --> 0:09:31.440 weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple car Play and 0:09:31.440 --> 0:09:34.360 Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also 0:09:34.440 --> 0:09:37.920 listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. 0:09:38.280 --> 0:09:41.040 Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 0:09:41.760 --> 0:09:44.600 Okay, so markets, let's be honest, not doing that much. 0:09:44.640 --> 0:09:46.199 We're looking at that weakness and meta that we were 0:09:46.200 --> 0:09:48.640 just talking about. We're kind of questioning if bitcoin's going 0:09:48.679 --> 0:09:51.480 to keep rallying, if an ASDAC doesn't really get any 0:09:52.120 --> 0:09:54.880 support here. And my big question, of course, throughout the 0:09:54.880 --> 0:09:57.640 whole two hours is I will find someone who has 0:09:57.679 --> 0:09:59.840 watched the oscars and can talk with me about I'm 0:09:59.880 --> 0:10:03.440 just ken. Maybe this person will be Sarah Ponzick, financial 0:10:03.480 --> 0:10:06.079 advisor at UBS Private Wealth Management. Is it? 0:10:06.120 --> 0:10:06.360 Is it? 0:10:06.400 --> 0:10:07.800 Sarah? Are you that person for me? 0:10:09.120 --> 0:10:14.400 Alex, I'm so sorry to disappoint you, but no. Last night, 0:10:14.600 --> 0:10:17.280 but I have seen Barbie, but no, I didn't watch. 0:10:19.160 --> 0:10:21.760 This does not count Sarah. You okay? 0:10:21.800 --> 0:10:22.120 All right? 0:10:22.160 --> 0:10:23.800 Well this is actually going to be a thing. This 0:10:23.880 --> 0:10:25.959 is Will I find someone in the next hour and 0:10:26.000 --> 0:10:28.280 a half that has seen the oscars that can talk 0:10:28.320 --> 0:10:31.360 about I'm just Ken? In the meantime, Sarah, let's talk 0:10:31.400 --> 0:10:33.679 about the markets. What do you make of this? 0:10:33.800 --> 0:10:33.880 Uh? 0:10:34.160 --> 0:10:36.559 Oscars are more important, right, I know, I. 0:10:36.520 --> 0:10:40.280 Mean to them for Sureticlarly for Disney, they did really well. 0:10:41.200 --> 0:10:43.560 They did, they did. Yeah, they probably were very happy 0:10:43.559 --> 0:10:48.559 about that. Anyway, Sarah, Nvidia losing a little bit of steam. 0:10:48.600 --> 0:10:51.000 It's flat right now, Meta kind of rolling over. What's 0:10:51.040 --> 0:10:52.640 your read on tech right now? 0:10:53.880 --> 0:10:54.040 Right? 0:10:54.120 --> 0:10:56.440 So it's only natural that we are seeing some of 0:10:56.480 --> 0:10:58.880 these big tech names taking a breather. 0:11:00.080 --> 0:11:02.000 We can't see them continue to. 0:11:01.960 --> 0:11:04.520 Power higher and higher and higher at the rate of 0:11:04.600 --> 0:11:08.640 what we've seen over the past year, let's say. But 0:11:08.800 --> 0:11:13.000 with that said, we're still pretty optimistic on tech here, 0:11:13.600 --> 0:11:14.120 and there's. 0:11:13.920 --> 0:11:15.720 A couple of reasons for that. One. 0:11:15.960 --> 0:11:21.439 Yes, AI has this massive buzzword, but when you look 0:11:21.480 --> 0:11:24.880 at the underlying fundamentals and you look at the amount 0:11:24.920 --> 0:11:28.960 of money that companies are spending on infrastructure, spend on 0:11:29.000 --> 0:11:31.400 technology to make sure that they are at the forefront 0:11:31.440 --> 0:11:34.800 of their AI game, we sow it and in Video's 0:11:34.840 --> 0:11:39.040 earnings just a few weeks ago, there is actually truth 0:11:39.120 --> 0:11:42.719 to this, and our Chief Investment office actually estimates that 0:11:42.800 --> 0:11:47.240 AI revenues are going to grow seventy percent a year 0:11:47.760 --> 0:11:51.240 through twenty twenty seven, so massive growth aheads. So there 0:11:51.320 --> 0:11:55.520 is reason that and there are numbers, frankly that are 0:11:55.640 --> 0:11:56.560 driving this rally. 0:11:56.600 --> 0:11:58.199 So we're still optimistic on tech. 0:11:58.480 --> 0:12:02.440 That doesn't mean that these magnificent companies are your entire 0:12:02.480 --> 0:12:05.120 equity portfolio. But what it does mean is you want 0:12:05.120 --> 0:12:06.120 to make sure that you're. 0:12:05.920 --> 0:12:09.199 Not under exposed to tech. You don't want so much. 0:12:09.080 --> 0:12:11.680 Less tech than your portfolio than the benchmark, per se, 0:12:12.120 --> 0:12:15.880 because the risk here is really missing out and being 0:12:16.000 --> 0:12:19.120 under exposed to what might be one of the greatest 0:12:19.120 --> 0:12:21.920 growth trends in the stock market over the next decade. 0:12:22.080 --> 0:12:23.559 I want to push you a little bit on your 0:12:23.600 --> 0:12:27.000 point about companies continuing to spend and invest. I mean, 0:12:27.040 --> 0:12:29.960 what's your outlook for companies to continue to have strong 0:12:30.040 --> 0:12:32.959 power to do that, because you know what's the market 0:12:32.960 --> 0:12:34.960 thinking about now. They're thinking about the FED meeting coming 0:12:35.040 --> 0:12:37.200 up next week and the prospects for a soft landing. 0:12:37.600 --> 0:12:40.719 If there is slow down, then that would set the 0:12:40.760 --> 0:12:43.640 read across to that for company spending would be reduced spending. 0:12:44.040 --> 0:12:45.680 So how do you put these two things together? 0:12:46.679 --> 0:12:50.360 You're right, and we've seen that run and center over 0:12:50.400 --> 0:12:52.920 the past couple of years, especially in the technology space. 0:12:52.960 --> 0:12:56.080 We have seen some technology companies that for years they've 0:12:56.080 --> 0:13:01.120 been known for having vast expansive workforces, go through a 0:13:01.160 --> 0:13:02.439 series of layoffs, and. 0:13:02.400 --> 0:13:04.760 They have been doing cost cuts. But when you think 0:13:04.760 --> 0:13:05.440 about the. 0:13:05.320 --> 0:13:08.560 Overall economy and not just the US economy, the global economy, 0:13:08.800 --> 0:13:12.599 and when companies are sitting in a room together and 0:13:12.640 --> 0:13:14.800 they're thinking about what is the most important thing for 0:13:14.880 --> 0:13:19.640 us to be spending our revenues on in the years ahead, 0:13:19.640 --> 0:13:22.600 the decade ahead. Oftentimes, and we've heard this in earnings calls, 0:13:23.320 --> 0:13:27.640 it's artificial intelligence because many companies know that again they 0:13:27.679 --> 0:13:31.199 can't risk falling behind, they don't want to risk their 0:13:31.240 --> 0:13:33.680 competitors serving ahead of them. 0:13:33.920 --> 0:13:35.199 So, yes, you're absolutely right. 0:13:35.280 --> 0:13:37.520 We have seen companies cost cutting, and those that have 0:13:37.559 --> 0:13:38.480 been cost cutting have. 0:13:38.600 --> 0:13:40.600 Been rewarded for that. 0:13:40.960 --> 0:13:43.160 But when it comes to deciding where you want to 0:13:43.200 --> 0:13:46.640 spend your money, tech spend has still been very important. 0:13:47.040 --> 0:13:49.599 So, Sarah, if though we take a little bit of 0:13:49.679 --> 0:13:51.480 breather intech, do you think that there's enough of a 0:13:51.600 --> 0:13:55.240 powerful rotation into other areas of the market, aka some 0:13:55.360 --> 0:13:57.800 kind of value in cyclicals to help support the overall 0:13:57.840 --> 0:13:59.840 index or we're just going to see some level of softness. 0:14:00.200 --> 0:14:03.439 All so, we have seen a broadening out. Absolutely. 0:14:03.480 --> 0:14:05.440 We have seen a broadening out since late last year 0:14:05.720 --> 0:14:08.120 and even more so this year, and we do expect 0:14:08.160 --> 0:14:10.840 that to continue. So to give you an idea, yes, 0:14:11.160 --> 0:14:13.760 we do like technology here, but a couple of other 0:14:13.800 --> 0:14:16.800 sectors we still like here are healthcare and industrials. 0:14:17.040 --> 0:14:18.240 A few reasons for that. 0:14:18.320 --> 0:14:21.200 One is healthcare can be seen as a more defensive 0:14:21.240 --> 0:14:23.920 area if you want to diversify your portfolio, but has 0:14:24.000 --> 0:14:27.880 also had a major boost from all these OBESD drugs 0:14:27.880 --> 0:14:30.320 that have just exploded in popularity. 0:14:30.640 --> 0:14:32.480 Industrials, that's more of a cyclical play. 0:14:32.800 --> 0:14:36.160 If we truly do see this goldilocks economic scenario in 0:14:36.200 --> 0:14:38.840 a soft landing, which has come to be the base case, 0:14:39.120 --> 0:14:41.720 you would expect that more cyclical areas of the economy 0:14:42.160 --> 0:14:44.200 are going to start doing some of the heavy lifting. 0:14:44.200 --> 0:14:46.920 It's not going to be tech alone. So yes, even 0:14:46.920 --> 0:14:49.560 if we do see tech take a breather, look, we're 0:14:49.600 --> 0:14:51.680 probably not going to see the same returns that we 0:14:51.760 --> 0:14:54.200 saw last year in the SMB and then ADDAC, but 0:14:54.560 --> 0:14:57.120 you could still see positive returns going forwards for equity 0:14:57.160 --> 0:15:01.400 markets as we start to see other sectors other industries 0:15:01.400 --> 0:15:01.800 pull their. 0:15:01.760 --> 0:15:02.360 Weight as well. 0:15:02.920 --> 0:15:05.360 What's the sector that you think it's gonna be suffering 0:15:05.440 --> 0:15:06.440 the most going ahead. 0:15:07.840 --> 0:15:11.120 It's a great question. What I would say. 0:15:11.360 --> 0:15:13.040 Certain areas of the market that we haven't been huge 0:15:13.040 --> 0:15:17.960 fans of lately have been utilities real estate. Some of 0:15:18.000 --> 0:15:21.120 that was a yield play with interest weights where they are, 0:15:21.720 --> 0:15:26.080 you don't really need to go find higher paying dividend 0:15:26.160 --> 0:15:30.200 stocks or bond proxies in the sense of utilities. But 0:15:30.440 --> 0:15:32.680 it's just not an area that we've favored so far. 0:15:34.120 --> 0:15:37.320 What is your thought though on Bitcoin? Let's kind of 0:15:37.360 --> 0:15:39.440 end where we left off, which is the idea of Okay, 0:15:40.040 --> 0:15:43.560 you have this tech softness, Bitcoin's on a tear, and 0:15:43.640 --> 0:15:46.560 having tech be a teeny bit softer and Bitcoin doing 0:15:46.600 --> 0:15:48.800 really well is a bit of a head scratcher. So 0:15:48.840 --> 0:15:50.360 I'm wondering what you think about it. 0:15:51.720 --> 0:15:53.760 I should have known coming into this that you would 0:15:53.760 --> 0:15:55.640 ask me about the oscars and Bitcoin. 0:15:57.040 --> 0:15:57.760 I really should have. 0:15:58.560 --> 0:16:01.800 I should have known. This is what I would say. 0:16:02.640 --> 0:16:06.680 There really are still no fundamental drivers behind bitcoin. Yes, 0:16:06.720 --> 0:16:09.480 there has been a massive rust to the space ever 0:16:09.520 --> 0:16:12.600 since launch of bitcoin ets. It's just made it much 0:16:12.720 --> 0:16:15.960 easier for investors to get a piece of it. I 0:16:16.000 --> 0:16:18.880 will say crypto is becoming it is an asset class. 0:16:18.920 --> 0:16:19.480 It's not becoming. 0:16:19.520 --> 0:16:23.480 It is an asset class, and for many it has 0:16:23.520 --> 0:16:28.800 become a small component of portfolios as a diversified portfolio. 0:16:29.320 --> 0:16:32.360 But at the same time, before any investor is going 0:16:32.400 --> 0:16:35.160 to dip their toes into the bitcoin market or the 0:16:35.200 --> 0:16:38.000 crypto market, especially at the levels we see bitcoin trading 0:16:38.040 --> 0:16:40.240 at now, you have to look yourself in the mirror 0:16:40.360 --> 0:16:43.120 and ask yourself if you if you're okay and you're 0:16:43.160 --> 0:16:46.080 prepared and willing to tolerate the volatility that that's going 0:16:46.080 --> 0:16:48.560 to come with, because yes, it's been a straight shot 0:16:48.640 --> 0:16:51.120 up over the last year, but we you know, people 0:16:51.160 --> 0:16:52.359 have amnesia. 0:16:52.480 --> 0:16:53.920 The same thing with tech stocks too. 0:16:54.080 --> 0:16:56.600 Yeah, everyone remembers twenty twenty three in which tech ran 0:16:56.680 --> 0:16:58.760 up and bitcoin ran up, But how did you feel 0:16:58.800 --> 0:16:59.560 in twenty twenty two. 0:17:00.000 --> 0:17:02.360 It's all everything you know taking a take time as well. 0:17:03.000 --> 0:17:05.600 So there's still a lot of unknown surrounding what crypto 0:17:05.760 --> 0:17:09.199 is going to become, where bitcoin really fits into our 0:17:09.280 --> 0:17:11.440 economy and the financial marketplace. 0:17:11.480 --> 0:17:13.800 So there's still going to be volatility. It's an asset class, 0:17:13.800 --> 0:17:14.240 but you have to. 0:17:14.240 --> 0:17:15.840 Be able to make sure that if you're going to 0:17:15.960 --> 0:17:18.040 invest in bitcoin, you need to be able to look 0:17:18.040 --> 0:17:18.720 at the volatility. 0:17:18.760 --> 0:17:22.120 All right, Sarah, next time, next time, you'll do better, 0:17:22.160 --> 0:17:25.680 all right, Sarah Ponzik, financial advisor at UBS Private Wealth Management. 0:17:26.080 --> 0:17:28.400 Great stuff, joining us there on the idea you got 0:17:28.400 --> 0:17:30.159 to be cautious when you're buying bitcoin. I love that. 0:17:30.320 --> 0:17:32.600 Can you look at yourself in the mirror and feel 0:17:32.800 --> 0:17:33.920 okay about it? 0:17:36.320 --> 0:17:40.200 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 0:17:40.280 --> 0:17:42.919 weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple card Play and 0:17:42.920 --> 0:17:45.560 then Broid Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on 0:17:45.640 --> 0:17:48.920 demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live 0:17:49.000 --> 0:17:50.360 on YouTube. 0:17:51.040 --> 0:17:52.960 Let's go now to the news over the weekend, which 0:17:53.040 --> 0:17:55.920 was Reddit finally getting it together to launch its long 0:17:55.960 --> 0:18:01.000 awaited ipo Amy or Bloomberg Equity Capital Markets reporter joins us. Now, first, 0:18:01.000 --> 0:18:02.359 did you watch the oscars? 0:18:03.640 --> 0:18:04.600 I am a lot of journey. 0:18:04.720 --> 0:18:06.520 I am alone people so far. 0:18:06.600 --> 0:18:09.000 When the ratings come out, so we know how many 0:18:09.000 --> 0:18:09.800