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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Noman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: It's March Madness Week. There's no reason to delay. It's

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Speaker 1: March Madness Week. We're gonna have on b J Cunningham.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna break this down into two parts. First part

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Speaker 1: Part one, all the Thursday games. Second part Part two,

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Speaker 1: all the Friday games. Listen to them consecutively. Listen to

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Speaker 1: him one at a time. Listen to them Friday first,

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Speaker 1: Thursday second. However you want to do it, whatever you

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Speaker 1: want to do. B J. Cunningham are college basketball expert

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Speaker 1: for the Action Network who joined us last week for

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Speaker 1: a conference tournament podcast. Predictions is on the podcast today

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Speaker 1: as always, my partner in crime, in Happiness, Professional Better,

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Speaker 1: my BFF companion compadre Mr Simon Hunter Chat. I'd be

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Speaker 1: a miss not to bring it up before we dive

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Speaker 1: into basketball. A lot a lot of stuff has happening

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Speaker 1: with football this past week, and a lot of people

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Speaker 1: reaching out to us I get stuff wrong all the time.

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Speaker 1: Can we not take a little victory lap on Tom Brady?

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Speaker 1: We from day one both were like, I don't know,

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Speaker 1: we didn't We didn't really think Tom was really committed

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Speaker 1: to the retirement. And did I swing a miss on

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Speaker 1: that Deshaun Watson stuff. I did not think he was

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Speaker 1: gonna get out of that. And and he will be

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Speaker 1: picking a team between the Saints Carolina as we're recording this,

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Speaker 1: either the Saints Carolina or the Browns, which is actually

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Speaker 1: a pretty sneaky team, because it made sense to me

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Speaker 1: they'd send him Town FC. So football never any news

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Speaker 1: cycle chat. It's it's crazy, like trying to keep up

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Speaker 1: with everything. What I love the most is a couple

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Speaker 1: of weeks ago, we had a rape bun on and

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Speaker 1: we went through all of our favorite futures and the

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Speaker 1: best way to bed divisions or conferences and teams were

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Speaker 1: thinking about really focused on teams from twenty one and longer,

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Speaker 1: and we all settled on loving the Chargers. I bet

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Speaker 1: the Chargers that day to one here in the state

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Speaker 1: of Connecticut. Two hours after the podcast was released, they

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Speaker 1: trade for Khalil Mack and they've since signed j C.

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Speaker 1: Jackson and all of a sudden, while the a f

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Speaker 1: C West in the a f C is a brutal conference,

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Speaker 1: Chargers are in play like they are a really good team. No,

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Speaker 1: and I've had a couple of protects me Iron sharpens Iron.

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Speaker 1: Just about the same thing with the Rams. Last year,

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Speaker 1: Rams were in a division with Arizona, in the division

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Speaker 1: where you know, forty niners. They might have stunk to

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Speaker 1: begin the year, but the end of the year they

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Speaker 1: were one of the toughest teams in all football NFC

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Speaker 1: Championship and being the Rams rest the fourty niners, it's like, again,

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Speaker 1: I get people can speak about these good divisions. I

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Speaker 1: love it. So I love the Chargers. They are really

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Speaker 1: taking taking what we talked about. They have a bunch

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Speaker 1: of cap space and they're using it. So Chris Raban,

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Speaker 1: who loved the Bengals, They've gone out and now I've

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Speaker 1: signed three offensive linem or maybe it's two. I know

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Speaker 1: they're in talks about the third offensive lineman. These teams

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Speaker 1: that we talked about long shots having cap space, they're

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Speaker 1: addressing their issues. So yeah, good good weekend if you're

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Speaker 1: a Chargers fan, if you're a Bengals fan, that's some

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Speaker 1: of the bad Jaguars futures. I don't know what the

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Speaker 1: hell they're doing. And Pittsburgh, I mean Mitch's back chat.

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Speaker 1: I don't know how if you're you're a bitter X,

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Speaker 1: but it will be hilarious if he goes to Pittsburgh

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Speaker 1: and puts on the Hall of Fame career. I only

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Speaker 1: want greatness for Mr Biscuit. I want him to uh

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Speaker 1: to go on and have a Hall of Fame career

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Speaker 1: with pitt Why he was caught in a bad situation

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Speaker 1: in Chicago with the coach who didn't know how to

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Speaker 1: use him and underperformed due to circumstances and then got

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Speaker 1: real roaded out of town. And I think he deserves

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Speaker 1: better and it will bring me great satisfaction to see

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Speaker 1: that a quarterback this good was on our team and

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Speaker 1: if not for a coach that I hated and thought

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Speaker 1: was pretty incompetent, UH, we could have been in a

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Speaker 1: much better spot. And I think as a Bears fan,

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Speaker 1: it it vindicates everything I think about the coaching and

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Speaker 1: the ownership that has existed on this team for generations.

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Speaker 1: But that's enough, Simon. We got to get to the

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Speaker 1: Thursday games. We gotta get to b J b J

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Speaker 1: number one. Kudo because when we had you on for

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Speaker 1: the Conference Tournament podcast last week, you loved Virginia Tech.

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Speaker 1: Guess who won the A C C Virginia Tech. You

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Speaker 1: loved Iowa in the Big ten, not just because you

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Speaker 1: live in Iowa, not just because you went to Iowa,

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Speaker 1: because you thought they were the best team in the

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Speaker 1: big town, the best odds in the big time. Congratulations

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Speaker 1: you won that too. Uh well done. Let's see if

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Speaker 1: you can bring our listeners and us some more winners

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Speaker 1: on the podcast today. As as I said, we're gonna

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Speaker 1: go game by game. We're not talking about brackets. We're

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Speaker 1: going game by game Thursday, game by game Friday. If

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Speaker 1: you want to pepper in some long shot, some brackets,

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Speaker 1: some final four topic conversation, feel free. And by the way,

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Speaker 1: soon you're gonna be able to get merchandise that has

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Speaker 1: mine and Simon's faces on the back of a T shirt.

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Speaker 1: I got that in the mail from the Volume team,

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Speaker 1: and I showed it to my wife and I said,

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Speaker 1: do you want it? She goes, no, why would I

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Speaker 1: want that? My family had a different reaction. Everyone in

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Speaker 1: my family once one now so that's I guess that's

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Speaker 1: a lot of love at home for Simon compared to chat.

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Speaker 1: A lot of history there between me and my wife,

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Speaker 1: A lot of history, all right, b J. We got

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Speaker 1: a game at twelve fifteen on Thursday afternoon Eastern twelve

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Speaker 1: fifteen Eastern, the controversial eleven seeded Michigan Wolverines against the

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Speaker 1: sixth seeded Colorado State Rams out of a incredibly stacked

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Speaker 1: Mountain West. They are underdogs, two and a half point underdogs.

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Speaker 1: Is in this game? What do you think? I'm kind

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Speaker 1: of staying away pregame. It's it's a very It's a

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Speaker 1: really fun matchup to open up the tournament. You know,

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Speaker 1: Michigan definitely got in because of the name, prestige, in

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Speaker 1: the strength of schedule. They really weren't that great throughout

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Speaker 1: the regular season. You know, you're gonna see a lot

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Speaker 1: of ball screens, a lot of post ups with Hunter Dickerson.

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Speaker 1: Colorrod State not really good in pick and roll defense,

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Speaker 1: so Michigan will have a big advantage. Of the problem

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Speaker 1: for Michigan is they're actually one of the best teams

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Speaker 1: in the country at getting open three pointers, but they

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Speaker 1: just can't hit them. They're hitting under three for the season.

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Speaker 1: But on the flip side of that, Colorado State not

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Speaker 1: that great at defending three pointers, and they do have

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Speaker 1: an incredible score in David Roddy that I'm not really

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Speaker 1: sure Michigan is gonna be able to guard with Diabatt

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Speaker 1: or Caleb Houston. I mean, he can go for thirty

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Speaker 1: at a moments known as he's six six, shooting over

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Speaker 1: from two point range, over percent from behind the ark.

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Speaker 1: The big thing for me is, I think this is

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Speaker 1: gonna be a fun live betting games. Start off the tournament.

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Speaker 1: Colorado State is arriving late and Indy. They had some

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Speaker 1: travel mix ups. They're leaving early Tuesday morning, getting in

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Speaker 1: the two hour time difference, only one day of practice,

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Speaker 1: so you could see them come pretty slow out of

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Speaker 1: the gates. And like we saw with Michigan the Big

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Speaker 1: Ten Tournament, they're very capable of blowing a big leads.

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Speaker 1: So I think this situation where if Colorado State gets

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Speaker 1: down early, I'd probably hop on the rams live give

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Speaker 1: me a team to advance. Michigan. Wow, Yes, I mean

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Speaker 1: they're just all around. I mean, Colorado State has had

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Speaker 1: a great season, but I really don't think they have

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Speaker 1: the bodies and the athletic doesn't hang with Michigan, especially

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Speaker 1: Dickerson down long. I mean the tallest guy is is

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Speaker 1: six ft ten. If he goes out, they don't really

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Speaker 1: have another guy with that type of size to guard

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Speaker 1: Dickerson down low. Alright, nine teams in from the Big

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Speaker 1: ten Mountain West, great year. I got a lot of

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Speaker 1: teams intoo. I think four teams in from the Mountain

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Speaker 1: West not going to be a good start the first

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Speaker 1: game for the Mountain West. That's what we're saying. Dakota

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Speaker 1: State Providence listen to Jack Rabbits getting a lot of love.

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Speaker 1: We're right now on Action Network. They could be a

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Speaker 1: sleeper out of this particular region. Providence another team you

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Speaker 1: liked them to potentially win the Big East. So is

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Speaker 1: this say rock and Hard Place BJ. I love love

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Speaker 1: the Jack Rapids to pull off a big upset here.

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Speaker 1: I think they're gonna absolutely un Providence out of the gym,

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Speaker 1: so Providence by in the Atlantics. In the analytics community,

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Speaker 1: they've been the luckiest team in college basketball from Ken

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Speaker 1: Palm two shot quality. You know, you look through the results,

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Speaker 1: there's around eight wins that they had that they that

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Speaker 1: they should have lost in You know that negative aggression

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Speaker 1: hit them big time in the Big East Tournament when

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Speaker 1: Creighton went on a thirty one is to run against

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Speaker 1: them to beat them in the semifinals. If you haven't

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Speaker 1: watched South Dkota State play, they are an absolute wagon. Offensively.

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Speaker 1: They finished top five in all of college basketball in

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Speaker 1: three point field goal percentage, affective field goal percentage, points

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Speaker 1: possession in both the half court and in transition. That

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Speaker 1: that last one in transition is huge for the jack

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Speaker 1: Rabbits because they play at a fast pace in Providence

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Speaker 1: is in defending in transition. So outside of transition, you know,

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Speaker 1: Providence mainly struggles and off ball screens and off the

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Speaker 1: dribble three pointers. They're outside of top two fifty in

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Speaker 1: those categories. South Coast States fourth in the entire country

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Speaker 1: in both of those. And you know, one of the

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Speaker 1: biggest advantages that Providence has had over a lot of

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Speaker 1: opponents is they get to the free throw line at

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Speaker 1: the twelfth highest rate in the country. Well, South d

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Speaker 1: Coast State defensively is eighth in preventing teams to get

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Speaker 1: the free throw lines. This is a horrible matchup for

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Speaker 1: Providence in the first round. I love South State on

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Speaker 1: the money line. I understand they're short underdogs, you know,

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Speaker 1: plus two. I think Providence is the shortest favorite ever

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Speaker 1: in the tournament as a four seat over a thirteen.

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Speaker 1: But I can't tell you how much I love the

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Speaker 1: Southcoast South d Coast State team. I think they're just

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Speaker 1: gonna absolutely shoot Providence right out of the game. This

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Speaker 1: is the game where you get to look smarter than

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Speaker 1: everybody else because you choose South Dakota State in your bracket,

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Speaker 1: and all of a sudden, you've got an easy first

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Speaker 1: round win that nobody was planning on. I mean, Chad,

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Speaker 1: there there two guards Baylor Shireman and Charlie easily are

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Speaker 1: both hitting over forty from behind the ark like they're

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Speaker 1: gonna absolutely just torch Providence from all over the floor.

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Speaker 1: So I honestly really don't see, uh, you know, how

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Speaker 1: Providence is gonna get by this one. And even if

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Speaker 1: they do, then they have to play Iowa. So I

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Speaker 1: think Providence is going out early. But you know you're

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Speaker 1: you see that in the odds because Providence, I think

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Speaker 1: it's thirty five to one to make the final four,

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Speaker 1: so the odds makers have obviously adjusted for it. Transition defense.

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Speaker 1: I think there's not like Division one team sign it.

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Speaker 1: I love that called by you BJ. I definitely see

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Speaker 1: the line moving too towards this Jack Rabbit team. It

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Speaker 1: opened to an half, down to two one and a half.

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Speaker 1: A lot of books. So the next one up in

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Speaker 1: our action app is Memphis Boise State. I love eight

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Speaker 1: nine matchups. It's always a coin flip game, but it's

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Speaker 1: the fun. It's more fun betting on the higher seed.

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Speaker 1: And you see the higher seed right now in Memphis

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Speaker 1: minus two and a half. So again it's it's interesting,

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Speaker 1: is it is this one of these games where you

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Speaker 1: know they're not getting enough respect in this Memphis team.

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Speaker 1: I think they're getting enough respect, and I think you'll

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Speaker 1: see them get more respect as the day is go on.

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Speaker 1: I think you might see Memphis as we get closer

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Speaker 1: to the game. Obviously they've been one of the hottest

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Speaker 1: teams in college basketball to actually get into the tournament.

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Speaker 1: Uh So, I think you'll see the market find some

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Speaker 1: love for them, and you might see them get up

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Speaker 1: to minus three, minus three and a half. This is

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Speaker 1: gonna be the polar opposite of South Dakota State. This

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Speaker 1: is a huge defensive slug best. Boise State is one

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Speaker 1: of the few teams in this term and that can

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Speaker 1: actually match the size and athleticism from Memphis. They keep

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Speaker 1: teams off the offensive glass at an incredibly high rate.

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Speaker 1: Memphis is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in

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Speaker 1: the country, so Boise State little will handle them there. Uh,

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Speaker 1: you also have to be obviously, with Memphis size, you

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Speaker 1: have to be able to defend them at the rim.

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Speaker 1: Boys State can do that well. Boisey State can also.

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Speaker 1: You know, they're eighty sewond and nationally in field but

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Speaker 1: potential out of the rim, so you know, number one

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Speaker 1: team in the Mountain Western that category as well. So

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Speaker 1: it's a really good match for them. Defensively. On the

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Speaker 1: flip side, you're gonna see just eighties type basketball from

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Speaker 1: the Boise State. It's gonna be a ton of post ups.

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Speaker 1: They're just gonna throw the ball down low. They're gonna

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Speaker 1: take their sweet time on offense. They're really good at

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Speaker 1: scoring in the rim. But you know, Memphis with those bodies,

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Speaker 1: is also great at defending at the rim. So the

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Speaker 1: big thing with boise is their snails pace has to

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Speaker 1: outweigh Memphis temp. Memphis loves to get out on transition.

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Speaker 1: They love to push the ball, where Boise State just

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Speaker 1: loves to sit there in the half court. They don't

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Speaker 1: turn the ball over the high rate. So I actually

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Speaker 1: do kind of like the Broncos in this matchup. I'm

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Speaker 1: waiting to get a better number. Memphis is also one

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Speaker 1: of the highest turnover teams offensively in the nation, and

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Speaker 1: Boise State turns people over a pretty high rates, So

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Speaker 1: I think it's a decent matchup for Boise who can

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Speaker 1: really match Memphisis size and athleticism. But again, I think

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Speaker 1: you're gonna if you wait, you're gonna get a better

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Speaker 1: number on the Broncos come Thursday. Memphis is one of

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Speaker 1: those teams I can't believe how little impact they've had

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Speaker 1: in the postseason since Penny hard Away has been the coach,

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Speaker 1: considering the talent that he attracts and how high their

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Speaker 1: prospects their their players end up going in the draft,

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Speaker 1: but sort of the ceiling on their prospects. Yeah, I mean,

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Speaker 1: if they get by Boise State here, their next round

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Speaker 1: matchup against Gonzaga is gonna be a doozy going up

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Speaker 1: against Chedole Graham and Drew Timmy that's gonna be an

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Speaker 1: amazing matchup down low. So we'll see if that you

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Speaker 1: know that talent and size athleticism is going up against

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Speaker 1: the best team in the country, we'll see if they're

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Speaker 1: actually for real alright. Uh, Norfolk State sixteen seed going

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Speaker 1: against the defending national championship National champions, the Baylor Bears.

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Speaker 1: Baylor is a twenty one and a half point favorite,

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Speaker 1: which almost feels light for a one in sixteen. Yes,

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Speaker 1: Baylor does have some injuries coming into this one. So

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Speaker 1: midway through the season they lost their best interior defender,

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Speaker 1: Jonathan to Chua. Uh. Then they also before the terment

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Speaker 1: they lost or their guards LJ. Crier. He's most likely

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Speaker 1: going to be out for this one, so that obviously

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Speaker 1: doesn't help them. I Mean, here's the thing with Baylor,

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Speaker 1: is there outstanding in half court defense, but they're not

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Speaker 1: that great in transition two four in the country. Norfolk

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Speaker 1: State plays an incredibly fast paced twenty of their possessions

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Speaker 1: are in transition, and they attack the rim of the

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Speaker 1: thirty ninth highest rate rate in the country. Baylor is

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Speaker 1: one of the five worst teams in the country at

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Speaker 1: defending at the rim, So I understand the Norfolk State

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Speaker 1: doesn't have the size and athleticism pete with Baylor, but

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Speaker 1: they have the characteristics of a team that can give

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Speaker 1: Baylor some problems. They're very good three point defense, you know,

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Speaker 1: they're top ten events against both catch and shooting off

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Speaker 1: the dribble three pointers their fourth against midrage jumpers. The

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Speaker 1: problem is is, like I said, they're just not gonna

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Speaker 1: be able to match the size of Baylor. But Norfolk

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Speaker 1: State is the thirty third most experienced team in the country.

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Speaker 1: They did play Xavier in which toss State in the nonconference.

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Speaker 1: They have seen at least somewhat of a decent opponent,

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Speaker 1: So I think Norfolk State actually hangs here. Uh. Plus

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Speaker 1: twenty one and a half, I think is a decent

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Speaker 1: number on the spartans here against Baylor, who has those

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Speaker 1: injury concerns. They're gonna win. But this is gonna be

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Speaker 1: one of those games where there's gonna be a ton

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Speaker 1: of meaningless buckets down the stretch, but very meaningful to

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Speaker 1: the spread. Number fourteen Longwood verse number three Tennessee. Is

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Speaker 1: this an upset special? It's plus seventeen, But I love Longwood.

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Speaker 1: It's one of the few teams I've actually watched this here.

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Speaker 1: I love Longwood. Uh. I, well, I'm glad that you

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Speaker 1: like long One because I really like them. Uh. They

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Speaker 1: are one of the luckiest teams in college basketball. They

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Speaker 1: went fifteen and one in the regular season in the

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Speaker 1: Big South. Fourteen of those wins were by eight points

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Speaker 1: or less, so they have just been riding that lucky

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Speaker 1: rabbit's foot all season. They're gritty, they're gritty. They shoot

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Speaker 1: a lot of threes, and that's great. But Tennessee is

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Speaker 1: third overall in the country and adjusted defensive efficiency, and

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Speaker 1: you saw that in the SEC Tournament. They can just

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Speaker 1: just shut teams down in the half court. It's you know,

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Speaker 1: Longwood is obviously put up some some great numbers. If

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Speaker 1: you go through all their Ken Palm numbers, everything looks great.

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Speaker 1: But they played the most difficult schedule in the country.

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Speaker 1: Tennessee was third in terms of their strength of schedule.

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Speaker 1: So I actually think, you know, Tennessee, they love to

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Speaker 1: play in the half court, and I think they will

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Speaker 1: make this a half court game, given how good they

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Speaker 1: are defensively. No, Tennessee grades out really well analytically for

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Speaker 1: a lot of things, but when you watch Tennessee there's

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Speaker 1: so many times where they go through stretches of just

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Speaker 1: shooting droughts for five sometimes ten minutes. So I think

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Speaker 1: the pace of this will we played a little bit slower,

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Speaker 1: not so much in transition. So I actually do like

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Speaker 1: under a hundred and thirty two and a half points,

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Speaker 1: And I know the spread is high, but I do

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Speaker 1: like Tennessee at minus sixteen and a half. The one

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Speaker 1: thing about Longwood their travel got delayed as well. They're

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Speaker 1: leaving at seven o'clock tonight on Tuesday, They're getting into

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Speaker 1: the hotel and India like ten o'clock, so they're basically

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Speaker 1: just gonna have one day and they play, you know,

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Speaker 1: turn around at forty five on Thursday. So uh, not

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Speaker 1: the best of situations. And I know I have Their

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Speaker 1: coach has been very outspoken about how Maddie is the

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Speaker 1: n c a UM. So I think Tennessee rolls here.

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Speaker 1: But I think they just shut down Longwood Longwood offensively.

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Speaker 1: I think that day for long Wood, that's the difference

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Speaker 1: right there. Otherwise they had a real shot. Yeah, Tennessee

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Speaker 1: is a great team. It's really interesting. We talked about

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Speaker 1: this last week. I love the SEC this year. Tennessee Auburn, Arkansas, Alabama,

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Speaker 1: Kentucky like really competitive teams. Obviously, Tennessee winning the SEC

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Speaker 1: Conference title, UM proved how good they could be. Listen

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Speaker 1: to me, grabbed the basketball knowledge. All right, BJ take

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Speaker 1: your victory. Lab Here. Iowa is a ten and a

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Speaker 1: half point favorite against the Richmond Spiders and money has

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Speaker 1: been coming in on Iowa. Um, you called it last week,

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Speaker 1: you had Iowa winning the Big Ten title. They did

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Speaker 1: it first time since two thousand six? What say you here?

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Speaker 1: I say, if I wasn't a biased person trying to

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Speaker 1: break down this matchup, I would say that this line

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Speaker 1: is a tad inflated. The thing with Richmond, and you

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Speaker 1: saw in the A ten tournament they have an outstanding

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Speaker 1: point guard and Jacob Gilliard, who is a matchup nightmare

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Speaker 1: for Iowa if they decided to play Jordan bohand In

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Speaker 1: for a significant amount of time. There are a couple

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Speaker 1: of things for I would defensively that give me a

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Speaker 1: lot of concerns. You know, Richmond's top ten in the country.

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Speaker 1: Not turning the ball over on offense, which is what

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Speaker 1: Iowa basically lived off against Perdue in the Big tent

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Speaker 1: ampionship game, and second Iowa allows a ton of open

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Speaker 1: three pointers three four in the country of the exact

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Speaker 1: Richmond offensively and open three point rates. So if Richmond

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Speaker 1: gets those open three pointers and knocks them down, they're

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Speaker 1: definitely gonna be able to hang with Iowa. Now, on

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Speaker 1: the flip side of that, Iowa obviously has the best

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Speaker 1: uh non big men in the country and Keegan Murray

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Speaker 1: uh and Richmond doesn't really have an answer for that. Defensively,

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Speaker 1: and quite frankly, the Spider's defense overall for the season

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Speaker 1: has been incredibly blow average in both the half court

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Speaker 1: and transition. But well, worries me about Iowa, and you

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Speaker 1: saw it last year with Illinois. It's the hangover from

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Speaker 1: winning the Big Ten title. Illinois got ousted by a tough,

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Speaker 1: loyal Chicago team in the second round. This is a

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Speaker 1: really experienced, really good Richmond team who you know I

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Speaker 1: was Obviously, they won the A ten tournament, but the

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Speaker 1: high of a team like Iowa and Illinois who hadn't

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Speaker 1: won the Big Ten title for a long time, that

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Speaker 1: hangover tends to carry over into the first and second rounds. So, uh,

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Speaker 1: if I wasn't an Iowa fan and I wasn't biased,

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Speaker 1: I would tell you that Richmond plus tenner and a

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Speaker 1: half has a lot of value, but I'm not going

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Speaker 1: to do that because I love my hawk eyes. M.

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Speaker 1: Can I guess say that I don't even know if

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Speaker 1: Keaty and Murray was the best non big man in

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Speaker 1: that In that game, Jared Ivy was amazing. M. I'm

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Speaker 1: not so sure. I mean, keck and Murray was the

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Speaker 1: best player in the Big ten tournament. We don't have

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Speaker 1: to get into a debate about who's better too, all right,

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Speaker 1: he might have been the best player in the tournament.

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Speaker 1: Jared Ivy is the most electrifying player. I mean, yes,

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Speaker 1: he's obviously more athletic, but I mean Keegan Murray can.

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Speaker 1: He can beat you everywhere. He can go down low

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Speaker 1: and take you up in the post. He can hit

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Speaker 1: from three, he can just there. He's an absolute matchup

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Speaker 1: nightmare for any team really in the tournament. The reason

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Speaker 1: I said non big man is because if Stucky was

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Speaker 1: on here and I said that Keaty Murray was better

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Speaker 1: than Oscar Sheeway, he would jump through the computer screen

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Speaker 1: and choke me. So that's the caveat I had to

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Speaker 1: put up. I mean, Kei can Murray is incredible. He

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Speaker 1: went chat he went eight for ten from three against

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Speaker 1: Indiana in the semis. I mean, come on, I don't

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Speaker 1: know what you're talking about, So I'm gonna ask you

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Speaker 1: a question. Next s up, we got number sixteen Georgia

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Speaker 1: Georgia State verse number one Gonzaga. I do the singing

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Speaker 1: on this show plus twenty three and a half. Is

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Speaker 1: that a short number for the Zags? Like? Should I

427
00:21:22,880 --> 00:21:25,439
Speaker 1: be thinking the Zags here? That feels short? No? This,

428
00:21:25,600 --> 00:21:28,520
Speaker 1: this Georgia State team is actually really really good and

429
00:21:28,600 --> 00:21:32,960
Speaker 1: really underrated. You know, listen, Gonzaga will cruise, they'll get

430
00:21:33,000 --> 00:21:34,760
Speaker 1: by this, but are they gonna cover that spread atally?

431
00:21:34,800 --> 00:21:37,840
Speaker 1: Not so sure. Georgia State doesn't have the height to

432
00:21:37,880 --> 00:21:40,159
Speaker 1: compete with Gonzaga, but boy, that can they defend at

433
00:21:40,160 --> 00:21:42,480
Speaker 1: the rim twenty seventh in the nation and two point

434
00:21:42,560 --> 00:21:45,200
Speaker 1: field goal percentage field goal percentage all out at the rim,

435
00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:48,720
Speaker 1: which not surprisingly is what Gonzaga does best offensively with

436
00:21:48,840 --> 00:21:51,960
Speaker 1: chet Holgram and Drew Timmy and Gonzaga obviously loves to

437
00:21:51,960 --> 00:21:53,879
Speaker 1: push the pace. They love to get out in transition,

438
00:21:54,400 --> 00:21:57,520
Speaker 1: but Georgia State is the third best team in the

439
00:21:57,600 --> 00:22:00,399
Speaker 1: nation in transition defense, so it's not that great matchup

440
00:22:00,440 --> 00:22:04,000
Speaker 1: for Gonzaga offensively if they can't score at the rim. Additionally,

441
00:22:04,040 --> 00:22:08,120
Speaker 1: Georgia State nineteen internal percentage thirty six and forcing bad

442
00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:10,720
Speaker 1: shot selection eight and defending off ball screens, which is

443
00:22:10,760 --> 00:22:13,720
Speaker 1: all what Gonzaga does at an elite level. Now, well,

444
00:22:13,760 --> 00:22:16,040
Speaker 1: Georgia State isn't that grave an offensive team. They do

445
00:22:16,119 --> 00:22:17,439
Speaker 1: run a lot of pick and roll, which is one

446
00:22:17,440 --> 00:22:19,639
Speaker 1: area that Gonzaga has tend to struggle with this season.

447
00:22:19,800 --> 00:22:21,879
Speaker 1: And honestly, if you look at some of their shooting

448
00:22:21,920 --> 00:22:24,600
Speaker 1: aggression stats, I mean, they're due for a ton of

449
00:22:24,680 --> 00:22:28,000
Speaker 1: positive aggression even if you look throughout their results all

450
00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:30,520
Speaker 1: season long. You know an analytics site called shock quality

451
00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:33,480
Speaker 1: that basically measured expected points and you know expected results.

452
00:22:34,000 --> 00:22:36,399
Speaker 1: Georgia State should have gone undefeated and the Sun Belt

453
00:22:36,440 --> 00:22:38,720
Speaker 1: this season. They were just incredibly unlucky and had a

454
00:22:38,720 --> 00:22:40,680
Speaker 1: bunch of wins that the losses that they should have won.

455
00:22:41,119 --> 00:22:43,560
Speaker 1: So I love the Panthers at plus twenty three and

456
00:22:43,560 --> 00:22:45,280
Speaker 1: a half. They really honestly should not have been a

457
00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:47,639
Speaker 1: sixteen seed. They should have been a fifteen I mean

458
00:22:47,720 --> 00:22:50,040
Speaker 1: for Gonzag, I mean the overall number one seed. This

459
00:22:50,119 --> 00:22:52,399
Speaker 1: is I mean they're gonna win, but I think they

460
00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:54,600
Speaker 1: would prefer to have a different sixteen seed than in

461
00:22:54,640 --> 00:22:57,400
Speaker 1: Georgia State. So I definitely think the Panthers are gonna

462
00:22:57,440 --> 00:22:59,480
Speaker 1: hang here and definitely cover twenty three and a half

463
00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:05,879
Speaker 1: Marquette three and a half point underdog to u n C, which,

464
00:23:06,440 --> 00:23:09,240
Speaker 1: let's face it, they don't be Duke and K's last game.

465
00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:12,120
Speaker 1: They probably get credit for three wins in that game.

466
00:23:12,400 --> 00:23:15,119
Speaker 1: They might not make the tournament. Do they advance, do

467
00:23:15,200 --> 00:23:18,000
Speaker 1: they cover? I this is one of the matchups that

468
00:23:18,040 --> 00:23:19,600
Speaker 1: I have really just up in the air and could

469
00:23:19,600 --> 00:23:22,520
Speaker 1: go either way. So North Carolina incredible rebounding team with

470
00:23:22,640 --> 00:23:25,679
Speaker 1: Rmando BayCon down down low against the Marquette team that

471
00:23:25,760 --> 00:23:27,600
Speaker 1: is outside the top thro hunter in both offensive and

472
00:23:27,640 --> 00:23:30,520
Speaker 1: defensive rebounding percentage. On the other hand, you have Marquette,

473
00:23:30,720 --> 00:23:32,480
Speaker 1: who is third in the country in terms of quality

474
00:23:32,520 --> 00:23:34,440
Speaker 1: looks they allow from three point range against the North

475
00:23:34,440 --> 00:23:37,080
Speaker 1: Carolina offense that have been hitting threes at an incredibly

476
00:23:37,160 --> 00:23:39,680
Speaker 1: high rate, but is also due for some negative shooting aggression.

477
00:23:39,960 --> 00:23:42,320
Speaker 1: Both these teams played a fast pace, which is gonna

478
00:23:42,359 --> 00:23:45,800
Speaker 1: favorite Marquette top fifty and transition offense. North Carolina outside

479
00:23:45,840 --> 00:23:48,680
Speaker 1: the top two fifty and transition defense. Marquette also loves

480
00:23:48,720 --> 00:23:51,320
Speaker 1: to shoot a ton of threes, which North Contas tends

481
00:23:51,359 --> 00:23:55,080
Speaker 1: to struggle defending. But that man, that rebounding advantage downlow

482
00:23:55,160 --> 00:23:58,040
Speaker 1: for North Carolina is absolutely no joke, and Baycott could

483
00:23:58,080 --> 00:24:01,240
Speaker 1: have sixteen seventeen rebounds in this games. So this is

484
00:24:01,359 --> 00:24:04,280
Speaker 1: one where I do think it's priced correctly along with

485
00:24:04,320 --> 00:24:08,160
Speaker 1: the over under, so I will ultimately be passing. Um. Yeah,

486
00:24:08,359 --> 00:24:10,000
Speaker 1: this is the one matchup I've looked at. I just

487
00:24:10,119 --> 00:24:12,040
Speaker 1: I really could honestly go either way, and I really

488
00:24:12,040 --> 00:24:14,560
Speaker 1: don't know what to make of these teams. Well, so

489
00:24:14,600 --> 00:24:16,639
Speaker 1: who do you choose to advance? If you have to

490
00:24:16,720 --> 00:24:19,320
Speaker 1: choose someone in a bracket? I will choose North Carolina

491
00:24:19,440 --> 00:24:22,720
Speaker 1: to advance given the fact that they are favored and

492
00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:25,920
Speaker 1: the rebounding advantage I think will outweigh any of the

493
00:24:25,960 --> 00:24:29,720
Speaker 1: shooting regression that they're due for. Take a shot on

494
00:24:29,800 --> 00:24:32,520
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503
00:24:59,119 --> 00:25:01,600
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504
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527
00:26:23,280 --> 00:26:27,879
Speaker 1: seed New Mexico State University getting six and a half first,

528
00:26:28,040 --> 00:26:31,720
Speaker 1: the five seed Yukon. I mean, Yukon, this is their

529
00:26:31,720 --> 00:26:33,920
Speaker 1: time to shine. I feel like every time we get

530
00:26:33,920 --> 00:26:35,560
Speaker 1: to this point, even though they're not even talked about,

531
00:26:35,560 --> 00:26:37,760
Speaker 1: this is usually when you can just makes a nice

532
00:26:37,800 --> 00:26:40,600
Speaker 1: little run in the tournament. I think the final four

533
00:26:40,680 --> 00:26:44,040
Speaker 1: long shot final four long shot in Yukon Huskies. Wow.

534
00:26:44,600 --> 00:26:46,920
Speaker 1: I mean I tended somewhat agree with that. I mean,

535
00:26:46,960 --> 00:26:48,800
Speaker 1: this is honestly an interesting match, but I think it

536
00:26:48,800 --> 00:26:51,440
Speaker 1: will be a trendy twelve five upset. You know, in

537
00:26:51,560 --> 00:26:54,159
Speaker 1: Mexico State has been the tournament a ton of times. Uh,

538
00:26:54,200 --> 00:26:56,919
Speaker 1: they're obviously, you know, experienced from being here. But you know,

539
00:26:57,000 --> 00:27:00,000
Speaker 1: North you know, Connecticut is an incredible defense, you know,

540
00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:01,680
Speaker 1: number one team in the country in terms of the

541
00:27:01,760 --> 00:27:04,640
Speaker 1: quality of three pointers that they allow. That's really bad

542
00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:06,800
Speaker 1: news from Mexico State, who takes a really high number

543
00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:09,280
Speaker 1: of reason is only hitting around thirty for the season.

544
00:27:09,760 --> 00:27:12,240
Speaker 1: Yukon also the number one team in college basketball an

545
00:27:12,240 --> 00:27:15,679
Speaker 1: offensive rebounding percentage. New Mexico State does rank pretty highly

546
00:27:16,200 --> 00:27:18,439
Speaker 1: and defensive rebounding, but they didn't have played an overly

547
00:27:18,440 --> 00:27:21,680
Speaker 1: difficult non conference schedule. The one team they did play

548
00:27:21,880 --> 00:27:24,480
Speaker 1: was Washington State, who finished the year top thirty in

549
00:27:24,560 --> 00:27:28,280
Speaker 1: offensive rebunding rebounding percentage. The Cougars grabbed eighteen offensive rebounds

550
00:27:28,280 --> 00:27:29,840
Speaker 1: in that game. So if I'm New Mexico State, I

551
00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:34,240
Speaker 1: am very, very worried about keeping Yukon off the offensive glass. Yukon,

552
00:27:34,480 --> 00:27:37,480
Speaker 1: I mean just all around great defensive team, but you know,

553
00:27:37,520 --> 00:27:39,920
Speaker 1: offensively they have tended to struggle. Uh They've had some

554
00:27:39,920 --> 00:27:43,159
Speaker 1: shooting most from from time to time, but you know,

555
00:27:43,160 --> 00:27:45,120
Speaker 1: in Mexico State not that great of a defense. So

556
00:27:45,320 --> 00:27:48,879
Speaker 1: I am leaning towards Yukon at the at the current number.

557
00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:50,720
Speaker 1: I'd like to wait and see if maybe the public

558
00:27:50,800 --> 00:27:53,560
Speaker 1: comes in on New Mexico State. They've already gotten some

559
00:27:53,600 --> 00:27:56,440
Speaker 1: money from the opener. But this is actually a really

560
00:27:56,480 --> 00:27:58,480
Speaker 1: good matchup for for Yukon in the first round, in

561
00:27:58,480 --> 00:28:00,879
Speaker 1: one of the five twelves that I don't think as

562
00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:02,919
Speaker 1: a real good one of the twelfth that doesn't really

563
00:28:02,960 --> 00:28:05,280
Speaker 1: get shot of upsetting a five. I know we didn't

564
00:28:05,280 --> 00:28:07,640
Speaker 1: plan on this, but I am going to need you

565
00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:15,040
Speaker 1: to give me a final for prediction and Final four

566
00:28:15,160 --> 00:28:18,120
Speaker 1: and national title winner at the end of part one.

567
00:28:18,359 --> 00:28:21,960
Speaker 1: I'm just saying it right now. I'm gonna need it. Okay,

568
00:28:22,160 --> 00:28:25,919
Speaker 1: don't give me your attitude, b J. Just say yes, Okay,

569
00:28:27,560 --> 00:28:29,240
Speaker 1: all of a sudden, you got the best player in

570
00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:31,479
Speaker 1: the Big ten. You think you're so special. I'm just

571
00:28:31,560 --> 00:28:37,480
Speaker 1: asking for facts. University of Kentucky, which I think a

572
00:28:37,480 --> 00:28:41,200
Speaker 1: lot of people also think could be a very trendy

573
00:28:41,440 --> 00:28:45,480
Speaker 1: final four pick out of their region. They're playing St. Peter's.

574
00:28:46,400 --> 00:28:48,720
Speaker 1: They're pretty big favorites at seventeen and a half. That

575
00:28:48,760 --> 00:28:53,360
Speaker 1: tells you a lot about how much bookmakers respect Kentucky.

576
00:28:53,520 --> 00:28:56,080
Speaker 1: Right now, it's seventeen and a half considering the seating

577
00:28:56,080 --> 00:28:59,680
Speaker 1: they are. Yeah, it's it's a really not a great

578
00:28:59,680 --> 00:29:02,080
Speaker 1: matchup for the Peacocks, but they were. They are the

579
00:29:02,080 --> 00:29:04,640
Speaker 1: best team in this tournament against the spread the season

580
00:29:04,640 --> 00:29:08,040
Speaker 1: twenty and nine. But that being said, they are the

581
00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:10,080
Speaker 1: number one team in the country of the frequency of

582
00:29:10,120 --> 00:29:12,680
Speaker 1: their shots coming at the rim. But they are three

583
00:29:13,080 --> 00:29:15,400
Speaker 1: fifty second in field goal percentage at the rim. So

584
00:29:16,200 --> 00:29:19,160
Speaker 1: going against a Kentucky front line of Oscar sheepway, this

585
00:29:19,400 --> 00:29:23,400
Speaker 1: is really really bad for them. It's it's you know,

586
00:29:23,400 --> 00:29:25,240
Speaker 1: they are a pretty good offensive rebounding team. They do

587
00:29:25,240 --> 00:29:26,840
Speaker 1: get the free to line at a pretty high rate,

588
00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:28,920
Speaker 1: you know, But Kentucky, those are two areas that they

589
00:29:28,960 --> 00:29:32,479
Speaker 1: are incredible at, you know St. Peter's. If you look

590
00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:36,080
Speaker 1: at their schedule, the toughest opponents they faced the place BCU, St. John's,

591
00:29:36,120 --> 00:29:38,520
Speaker 1: Providence and I ownA twice in the m Double A C.

592
00:29:39,080 --> 00:29:41,720
Speaker 1: They got beat pretty handily in all five of those games.

593
00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:45,120
Speaker 1: So I think Kentucky cruises here. But you know, Kentucky

594
00:29:45,200 --> 00:29:49,440
Speaker 1: is a very high percentage midrange team there there don't

595
00:29:49,480 --> 00:29:52,160
Speaker 1: take a lot of threes. So if they're not hitting those,

596
00:29:52,200 --> 00:29:54,760
Speaker 1: man Draine shots, which are technically low lower quality than

597
00:29:55,000 --> 00:29:58,880
Speaker 1: three pointers. They could be in some trouble here, But again,

598
00:29:58,920 --> 00:30:03,640
Speaker 1: you know her she way is five the biggest guy

599
00:30:03,720 --> 00:30:06,960
Speaker 1: that St. Peter's has, so she boy should just be

600
00:30:06,960 --> 00:30:10,640
Speaker 1: able to dominate down low. But with that being said,

601
00:30:10,680 --> 00:30:12,520
Speaker 1: this line has got steamed pretty hard. It opened a

602
00:30:12,560 --> 00:30:14,160
Speaker 1: fifteen and a half and now it's up to eighteen

603
00:30:14,160 --> 00:30:17,040
Speaker 1: and a lot of books. If St. Peter's gets to twenty,

604
00:30:17,080 --> 00:30:19,680
Speaker 1: I don't like it. Uh, highly doubt it. Actually we'll

605
00:30:19,680 --> 00:30:22,200
Speaker 1: get there, but I may end up playing the Peacocks,

606
00:30:22,200 --> 00:30:24,320
Speaker 1: even though it is kind of a bad matchup with

607
00:30:24,400 --> 00:30:27,640
Speaker 1: the backdoor potential um. But other than that, I'm staying away.

608
00:30:28,640 --> 00:30:32,600
Speaker 1: We're entering in the country on shots at the rim.

609
00:30:32,800 --> 00:30:35,160
Speaker 1: When you're getting so many shots at the rim, it's

610
00:30:35,200 --> 00:30:38,840
Speaker 1: not good. It's just not good. It's just not good.

611
00:30:39,600 --> 00:30:43,160
Speaker 1: Next up, got number nine, Creighton plus two and a

612
00:30:43,160 --> 00:30:48,000
Speaker 1: half first the eight seed San Diegustin University. Fun fact,

613
00:30:48,360 --> 00:30:50,640
Speaker 1: Stan agust University towd. My grades weren't good enough to

614
00:30:50,640 --> 00:30:53,320
Speaker 1: get to their college. I hold a grudge forever. I'm

615
00:30:53,360 --> 00:30:55,960
Speaker 1: still pissed about it. My whole life would be different,

616
00:30:55,960 --> 00:30:58,440
Speaker 1: My whole life I wish I wish I got him,

617
00:30:58,480 --> 00:31:02,040
Speaker 1: but which is two and a half? Who gotten this matchup?

618
00:31:02,440 --> 00:31:04,480
Speaker 1: I love the Aztecs. For those who know, San Diego

619
00:31:04,520 --> 00:31:07,800
Speaker 1: State finished seconds in the entire country and adjusted defensive

620
00:31:07,800 --> 00:31:11,800
Speaker 1: efficiency per Ken Pump, you cannot score quickly on them.

621
00:31:11,800 --> 00:31:13,840
Speaker 1: There the number one team in the nation in terms

622
00:31:13,880 --> 00:31:16,440
Speaker 1: of their average possession length on defense, which is a

623
00:31:16,440 --> 00:31:18,880
Speaker 1: problem for creating. Who is going to try to speed

624
00:31:18,920 --> 00:31:21,360
Speaker 1: San Diego State up and try to score quickly? And

625
00:31:21,440 --> 00:31:24,200
Speaker 1: San Diego it turns opponents over top thirty in the country.

626
00:31:24,240 --> 00:31:27,480
Speaker 1: Crating's outside the top three offensively at turning the ball over,

627
00:31:27,560 --> 00:31:29,840
Speaker 1: so really not a great matchup. On top of all

628
00:31:29,880 --> 00:31:32,200
Speaker 1: of that, Creton was out was without their starting point

629
00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:36,000
Speaker 1: guard Ryan Nemhard, who broke his hands, so this is

630
00:31:36,040 --> 00:31:38,320
Speaker 1: really not a great matchup for creating offensively on the

631
00:31:38,320 --> 00:31:41,600
Speaker 1: flip side, creating very very good half court defense thirteen

632
00:31:41,800 --> 00:31:44,560
Speaker 1: in points where possession allowed. They're also top ten in

633
00:31:44,640 --> 00:31:46,840
Speaker 1: field goal percentagel out at the rim, which is really

634
00:31:47,440 --> 00:31:49,719
Speaker 1: basically where San Diego State runs a lot of their offense.

635
00:31:49,760 --> 00:31:52,880
Speaker 1: But the Aztecs are hitting a pretty decent percentage from

636
00:31:52,920 --> 00:31:56,520
Speaker 1: outside the arc, where Creighton hasn't been that great at defending.

637
00:31:56,600 --> 00:31:59,080
Speaker 1: So I really think this matchup favors the Aztecs given

638
00:31:59,120 --> 00:32:01,880
Speaker 1: how good their defense is. I love them minus two

639
00:32:01,880 --> 00:32:03,520
Speaker 1: and a half. And I just really am not sure

640
00:32:04,080 --> 00:32:07,000
Speaker 1: how Craton is going to score efficiently if their defense

641
00:32:07,080 --> 00:32:08,840
Speaker 1: isn't able to hit a high percentage of three pointers

642
00:32:08,840 --> 00:32:11,520
Speaker 1: and they're constantly turning the ball over. I'd like to

643
00:32:11,520 --> 00:32:15,240
Speaker 1: see a list of all the schools some applied to,

644
00:32:15,720 --> 00:32:19,600
Speaker 1: where he got in, where he got rejected from. I

645
00:32:19,640 --> 00:32:21,280
Speaker 1: also want to see your s A T. S course

646
00:32:21,480 --> 00:32:23,160
Speaker 1: to this. I was a good student. I told you

647
00:32:23,200 --> 00:32:25,760
Speaker 1: I cheated all with your high school. So I got

648
00:32:25,760 --> 00:32:27,680
Speaker 1: good grades. I got the exact grades I wanted to

649
00:32:27,680 --> 00:32:29,920
Speaker 1: get through high school. Was one of those kids you

650
00:32:29,960 --> 00:32:32,160
Speaker 1: can't stay. I was a good student. And by the way,

651
00:32:32,200 --> 00:32:35,000
Speaker 1: I cheated on the way through high school that too.

652
00:32:35,480 --> 00:32:37,200
Speaker 1: Those are two is that? Is that what made you

653
00:32:37,240 --> 00:32:41,080
Speaker 1: a good student? It's all all High school is about effort.

654
00:32:41,120 --> 00:32:44,240
Speaker 1: People put effort into studying, other people put effort into cheating.

655
00:32:44,360 --> 00:32:47,040
Speaker 1: It's either or. I mean, that's that's high school, right,

656
00:32:47,440 --> 00:32:51,360
Speaker 1: Fake it till you make it. The lessons you learn

657
00:32:51,800 --> 00:32:56,640
Speaker 1: about evaluating upside and opportunity on the Favorites podcast the

658
00:32:56,760 --> 00:32:59,760
Speaker 1: University of Vermont. I believe they're called the cat Amounts.

659
00:33:00,320 --> 00:33:05,800
Speaker 1: Um are taking down the Arkansas Razorbacks last year's tournament, Darling,

660
00:33:05,920 --> 00:33:08,840
Speaker 1: I love this team so much. In the tournament last year,

661
00:33:09,400 --> 00:33:15,040
Speaker 1: the Razorbacks five point favorites. They're playing a m on Thursday. Questions,

662
00:33:15,040 --> 00:33:17,160
Speaker 1: are you gonna be able to stay up for this one? Chat? Oh? No,

663
00:33:17,280 --> 00:33:21,800
Speaker 1: I listen, not even I I'm I'm there's no chance.

664
00:33:22,080 --> 00:33:29,160
Speaker 1: I'm probably done after halftime of Crate in San Diego State. Well,

665
00:33:29,280 --> 00:33:31,400
Speaker 1: when you wake up the next morning and check uh

666
00:33:31,760 --> 00:33:34,840
Speaker 1: your phone, you will hopefully see that Vermont has covered

667
00:33:34,880 --> 00:33:37,560
Speaker 1: five points. Because two years in a row, the Arkansas

668
00:33:37,600 --> 00:33:40,080
Speaker 1: is getting a really dicey first round draw. Last season

669
00:33:40,120 --> 00:33:42,480
Speaker 1: it was Colgate who almost got them. Now they get

670
00:33:42,520 --> 00:33:44,959
Speaker 1: an incredibly experienced Vermont team, and the market has hit

671
00:33:45,000 --> 00:33:46,880
Speaker 1: it pretty hard. Arkansas open a minus six and a

672
00:33:46,920 --> 00:33:49,040
Speaker 1: half and the Razorbacks already down to minus five. This

673
00:33:49,080 --> 00:33:50,760
Speaker 1: is actually a pretty good matchup for Vermont. You know,

674
00:33:50,800 --> 00:33:53,520
Speaker 1: first off, to the number one defensive rebounding team in

675
00:33:53,520 --> 00:33:55,200
Speaker 1: the country, so they should be able to keep Arkansas

676
00:33:55,280 --> 00:33:58,240
Speaker 1: off the class. Secondly, they're very good at defending inside

677
00:33:58,280 --> 00:34:02,040
Speaker 1: the ark two point Fielbo percentage allowed top eight, and

678
00:34:02,080 --> 00:34:05,040
Speaker 1: field goal percentage allowed at the rim. Arkansas cannot shoot

679
00:34:05,120 --> 00:34:07,520
Speaker 1: from behind the arcs, so really bad matchup for them

680
00:34:07,520 --> 00:34:09,600
Speaker 1: if they're not able to score from inside the arc.

681
00:34:10,120 --> 00:34:12,040
Speaker 1: Vermont is also going to slow this down to an

682
00:34:12,080 --> 00:34:15,200
Speaker 1: absolutely snails pace and force Arkansas to play them in

683
00:34:15,239 --> 00:34:17,439
Speaker 1: the half court, where where they are the second best

684
00:34:17,440 --> 00:34:20,759
Speaker 1: team in college basketball in terms of efficiency. Vermont is

685
00:34:20,800 --> 00:34:23,640
Speaker 1: also just incredible in terms of their shot selection. They

686
00:34:23,680 --> 00:34:26,000
Speaker 1: don't turn the ball over, and they're very efficient attacking

687
00:34:26,040 --> 00:34:29,000
Speaker 1: the rim. But most importantly I already mentioned per can

688
00:34:29,080 --> 00:34:32,319
Speaker 1: Palm fourth most experienced team in the entire country. So

689
00:34:32,560 --> 00:34:34,840
Speaker 1: if Arkansas is forced to play this in a half court,

690
00:34:35,120 --> 00:34:36,800
Speaker 1: grinded out style of game with the one of the

691
00:34:36,840 --> 00:34:40,440
Speaker 1: motor efficient offenses in college basketball, they could, without a

692
00:34:40,480 --> 00:34:43,520
Speaker 1: doubt be on upset alord. So I love Vermont plus

693
00:34:43,600 --> 00:34:45,520
Speaker 1: five plus five and a half and it's a nice uh,

694
00:34:45,600 --> 00:34:47,439
Speaker 1: it's a nice money line to throw it around Robin

695
00:34:47,719 --> 00:34:50,319
Speaker 1: on Thursday as well. Wow, we got a couple of

696
00:34:50,280 --> 00:34:52,319
Speaker 1: a couple of good upsets on this Thursday. One Chad

697
00:34:52,760 --> 00:34:57,719
Speaker 1: next day, Yeah me too, uh ten uh see San

698
00:34:57,760 --> 00:35:02,399
Speaker 1: Francisco plus one and a half first seven seed. Murray State, Uh,

699
00:35:02,480 --> 00:35:05,759
Speaker 1: Murray State thirty and two as seventh seed. That's that's

700
00:35:05,800 --> 00:35:07,719
Speaker 1: kind of crazy. They just don't play against good teams.

701
00:35:07,719 --> 00:35:11,040
Speaker 1: I'm guessing yes, yes, and no. I mean the the OVC,

702
00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:13,960
Speaker 1: it's typically just them in Belmont Moore Head State was

703
00:35:13,960 --> 00:35:16,120
Speaker 1: pretty good this year, so they had two decent opponents

704
00:35:16,160 --> 00:35:19,040
Speaker 1: in conference play. The last time they lost was December

705
00:35:20,080 --> 00:35:24,839
Speaker 1: against so they haven't lost. And the reason they are

706
00:35:24,880 --> 00:35:28,320
Speaker 1: so good is they just torch people in transition seventy

707
00:35:28,360 --> 00:35:31,600
Speaker 1: six highest frequency of possessions in transition sixth, best in

708
00:35:31,680 --> 00:35:34,759
Speaker 1: points per possession there. Well, guess what they're facing the

709
00:35:34,760 --> 00:35:37,600
Speaker 1: team that's one spot below them in that same category.

710
00:35:37,680 --> 00:35:40,840
Speaker 1: San Francisco is seventh in the country in transition offense.

711
00:35:40,880 --> 00:35:43,160
Speaker 1: So I think will end up seeing an absolute track meet.

712
00:35:43,200 --> 00:35:45,279
Speaker 1: And you know, the guard matchmen, this is incredible. You know,

713
00:35:45,520 --> 00:35:47,440
Speaker 1: these two backcourts are two of the best, you know

714
00:35:47,480 --> 00:35:51,120
Speaker 1: in mid major college basketball. Murray State, you know, when

715
00:35:51,120 --> 00:35:52,560
Speaker 1: they are in the half court, they run a ton

716
00:35:52,560 --> 00:35:55,239
Speaker 1: of off ball screens, you know, which bodes well against

717
00:35:55,239 --> 00:35:57,480
Speaker 1: San Francisco is outside the top two d and defending

718
00:35:57,480 --> 00:35:59,920
Speaker 1: that they also attacked the rem and incredibly high rate.

719
00:36:00,120 --> 00:36:02,399
Speaker 1: San Francisco. While they defend well at the rim, they're

720
00:36:02,400 --> 00:36:05,920
Speaker 1: allowing the sixteen highest frequency of shots at the rim,

721
00:36:06,000 --> 00:36:08,239
Speaker 1: so some pretty good advantages for Murray offensively. On the

722
00:36:08,239 --> 00:36:11,879
Speaker 1: flip side, San Francisco is an excellent three point shooting team.

723
00:36:11,960 --> 00:36:14,719
Speaker 1: They have the third highest points per possession on off

724
00:36:14,719 --> 00:36:18,240
Speaker 1: the drivel three pointers. Murray State is decent at defending those,

725
00:36:18,280 --> 00:36:20,600
Speaker 1: but where they aren't decent is in the post up

726
00:36:20,600 --> 00:36:24,400
Speaker 1: three in the nation, while San Francisco was third in

727
00:36:24,440 --> 00:36:27,200
Speaker 1: the West Coast Conference and post upsets. So with those

728
00:36:27,239 --> 00:36:29,640
Speaker 1: type of offensive advantages for both teams and the fact

729
00:36:29,680 --> 00:36:32,480
Speaker 1: that both are so efficient in transition, I think we're

730
00:36:32,480 --> 00:36:34,600
Speaker 1: gonna see an up and down style type of games.

731
00:36:34,600 --> 00:36:36,520
Speaker 1: So the total set of a hundred thirty six and

732
00:36:36,520 --> 00:36:38,479
Speaker 1: a half, I think that's way too low. I love

733
00:36:38,719 --> 00:36:40,440
Speaker 1: I love the over in that spot in this In

734
00:36:40,440 --> 00:36:44,080
Speaker 1: this game, I love the nickname for the University of

735
00:36:44,120 --> 00:36:46,960
Speaker 1: San Francisco. It's one of my favorite in all of

736
00:36:47,040 --> 00:36:50,480
Speaker 1: college basketball, the San Francisco Dons. I also loved the

737
00:36:50,600 --> 00:36:52,719
Speaker 1: two of what I would argue are three of the

738
00:36:52,760 --> 00:36:57,200
Speaker 1: best players in San Francisco Don's history played for the

739
00:36:57,320 --> 00:36:59,880
Speaker 1: Chicago Bolt. They won a national title in the fifties.

740
00:37:00,040 --> 00:37:02,360
Speaker 1: Believe they were won a national title of the fifties

741
00:37:02,400 --> 00:37:06,360
Speaker 1: with with probably you know, arguably the greatest center in

742
00:37:06,400 --> 00:37:10,680
Speaker 1: Inda history, Bill Russell. Yeah, and you're probably high school

743
00:37:10,719 --> 00:37:20,719
Speaker 1: and right, Chad, you are okay. Last game on Thursday,

744
00:37:20,719 --> 00:37:23,560
Speaker 1: we got Akron at u c l A, another Final

745
00:37:23,640 --> 00:37:26,080
Speaker 1: four team from last year Final four Darling. They were

746
00:37:26,160 --> 00:37:30,319
Speaker 1: fun to watch. Lay it on as b J. Yeah,

747
00:37:30,360 --> 00:37:32,120
Speaker 1: this is this is when I might put you to

748
00:37:32,120 --> 00:37:34,240
Speaker 1: sleep late at night because it's gonna be paid. Played

749
00:37:34,280 --> 00:37:39,080
Speaker 1: at an incredibly slow paced Akron seventh slowest and adjusted

750
00:37:39,080 --> 00:37:40,719
Speaker 1: tempo in the country. U c l A well below

751
00:37:40,719 --> 00:37:42,800
Speaker 1: average and tempo as well. Well, you're gonna see you

752
00:37:42,800 --> 00:37:45,320
Speaker 1: from mccrownin's team is a lot of men range jumpers.

753
00:37:45,360 --> 00:37:48,680
Speaker 1: Because their tenth most efficient team in that category, Acron

754
00:37:48,760 --> 00:37:50,520
Speaker 1: is pretty average and defending that u c l A.

755
00:37:50,960 --> 00:37:53,360
Speaker 1: Their offense is obviously very good, very efficient. But I

756
00:37:53,360 --> 00:37:55,080
Speaker 1: don't think a lot of people realize is that they

757
00:37:55,120 --> 00:37:57,280
Speaker 1: don't really take out a high number of three pointers.

758
00:37:57,280 --> 00:38:00,359
Speaker 1: We obviously saw jus An go crazy in their running year,

759
00:38:00,440 --> 00:38:03,399
Speaker 1: but they're outside the top three hundred in three point rate,

760
00:38:03,760 --> 00:38:06,520
Speaker 1: which in this matchup they may want to rethink because

761
00:38:06,560 --> 00:38:09,359
Speaker 1: Akron does tend to struggle a lot against three point

762
00:38:09,360 --> 00:38:11,640
Speaker 1: shooting teams. The thing about Acres, they shoot a very

763
00:38:11,719 --> 00:38:13,799
Speaker 1: high percentage from the floor, but they get to the

764
00:38:13,800 --> 00:38:16,120
Speaker 1: free throw line free throw line at the fifth highest

765
00:38:16,200 --> 00:38:17,640
Speaker 1: rate in the country, and that's one area that U

766
00:38:17,640 --> 00:38:20,040
Speaker 1: c l A tends to struggle defensively. I mean against

767
00:38:20,080 --> 00:38:21,600
Speaker 1: Arizona they allowed them to get to the free thro

768
00:38:21,600 --> 00:38:25,040
Speaker 1: line times in the Pact twelve championship games. So you know,

769
00:38:25,120 --> 00:38:27,960
Speaker 1: Akron didn't play the toughest of schedules. They their toughest

770
00:38:28,000 --> 00:38:31,719
Speaker 1: game they played was the opening game against Ohio State

771
00:38:31,719 --> 00:38:34,040
Speaker 1: in Columbus, which they lost on a buzzer beater. But

772
00:38:34,200 --> 00:38:36,319
Speaker 1: they did beat a really good Toledo team twice in

773
00:38:36,320 --> 00:38:38,800
Speaker 1: the MAC but two eighth in terms of strength of schedule.

774
00:38:39,200 --> 00:38:42,200
Speaker 1: It's gonna be really tough for them to match up

775
00:38:42,200 --> 00:38:44,840
Speaker 1: well here with U c l A. I will ultimately

776
00:38:44,920 --> 00:38:47,239
Speaker 1: passing on this game because I think the line is

777
00:38:47,640 --> 00:38:51,240
Speaker 1: priced correctly. The old runner is pretty correct, so uh, ultimately,

778
00:38:51,280 --> 00:38:53,000
Speaker 1: this game I think is just a pass in. U

779
00:38:53,000 --> 00:38:56,279
Speaker 1: c l advances pretty comfortably, al right, the other two

780
00:38:56,320 --> 00:39:00,000
Speaker 1: games that obviously we haven't talked about. Reminder, we're gonna

781
00:39:00,080 --> 00:39:02,799
Speaker 1: do part two the Friday games in a separate pod.

782
00:39:03,040 --> 00:39:05,520
Speaker 1: We're going to ignore the playing games because they're happening

783
00:39:05,880 --> 00:39:08,560
Speaker 1: today and most people are gonna hear that b J

784
00:39:08,880 --> 00:39:11,600
Speaker 1: before we get to part two. Give me your Final four,

785
00:39:12,120 --> 00:39:15,600
Speaker 1: give me your national champion. My final four is going

786
00:39:15,680 --> 00:39:20,680
Speaker 1: to be Texas Tech coming out of the West Region,

787
00:39:21,360 --> 00:39:24,600
Speaker 1: Kentucky coming out of the East, Arizona coming out of

788
00:39:24,600 --> 00:39:29,600
Speaker 1: the South, Iowa coming out of the Midwest. Arizona is

789
00:39:29,640 --> 00:39:32,840
Speaker 1: going to play Kentucky in the final, and Tommy Lloyd's team,

790
00:39:33,520 --> 00:39:37,360
Speaker 1: the Wildcats, Well, the Wildcats are gonna beat the Wildcats.

791
00:39:37,400 --> 00:39:40,960
Speaker 1: Arizona is going to cut down the nets against Kentucky.

792
00:39:41,160 --> 00:39:48,480
Speaker 1: That is a really full, interesting, well conceived, diverse final four.

793
00:39:48,600 --> 00:39:52,040
Speaker 1: You've got like underdogs, you've got a number one seed,

794
00:39:52,120 --> 00:39:55,719
Speaker 1: You've got a blue blood in there. I like it. Yeah,

795
00:39:55,920 --> 00:39:59,359
Speaker 1: I mean Gonzaga. They're ripe to get taken down by

796
00:39:59,360 --> 00:40:01,360
Speaker 1: a Texas Tech who is the number one defense in

797
00:40:01,360 --> 00:40:03,600
Speaker 1: college basketball. So that's going to be one of the

798
00:40:03,640 --> 00:40:06,000
Speaker 1: more if it, if it ends up happening, those two

799
00:40:06,000 --> 00:40:07,200
Speaker 1: teams is going to be one of the more fun

800
00:40:07,239 --> 00:40:11,200
Speaker 1: matchups of the entire tournament. All right, for Simon Hunter,

801
00:40:12,040 --> 00:40:15,279
Speaker 1: for producer Matt Mitchell, for b J Cunningham. I am

802
00:40:15,320 --> 00:40:20,000
Speaker 1: Shad Nowman. This is Part one of the March Madness

803
00:40:21,560 --> 00:40:24,600
Speaker 1: game by game breakdown. We just did the Thursday games.

804
00:40:24,640 --> 00:40:29,640
Speaker 1: Don't forget Friday Games. A part two podcast released simultaneously.

805
00:40:30,400 --> 00:40:33,640
Speaker 1: Download the podcast from Apple, podcast, from Spotify, wherever you

806
00:40:33,680 --> 00:40:37,760
Speaker 1: get your podcast, Rate review, subscribe to give us five stars.

807
00:40:38,120 --> 00:40:40,200
Speaker 1: We don't care what you say. Feedback is a gift.

808
00:40:40,640 --> 00:40:42,279
Speaker 1: Until then, I love you.