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Speaker 1: The volume callin Coward Podcast presented by FanDuel Sports Book.

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Speaker 1: L I in FanDuel sports Book App. Sign Up, Hi everybody,

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Speaker 1: and welcome to the Friday Morning Podcast. Off a blazing

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Speaker 1: week of picks Chad Millman in ten minutes. First fake questions,

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Speaker 1: real answers. I got stuff I want to talk about.

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Speaker 1: I don't want to wait for you to ask me,

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Speaker 1: Dear Colin, of all the struggling college powerhouses LSU, USC Florida, Miami,

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Speaker 1: which one do you think has the best chance to

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Speaker 1: bounce back? This is interesting and I was asked this

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Speaker 1: the other day USC. Why because it's in the weakest conference.

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Speaker 1: The PAC twelve is so bad. LSU in Florida could

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Speaker 1: get a B plus coach and still struggled to win

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Speaker 1: the SEC Miami. I don't think it's a good job,

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Speaker 1: But to think about USC for a second, Clay Helton

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Speaker 1: was thought of as mostly a near disaster, and he

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Speaker 1: won sixty six percent of his games seventy three percent

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Speaker 1: in the PAC twelve, won two Bowl games and had

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Speaker 1: two seasons with ten plus wins. He only had one

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Speaker 1: losing season in six full years, and he was one

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Speaker 1: and one when they fired him. The PAC twelve is

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Speaker 1: so weak that USC can hire a B coach and

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Speaker 1: they're old. Challenge for the conference title would be Oregon.

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Speaker 1: Dear Colin, what's the most interesting potential storyline for the

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Speaker 1: Brooklyn Nets? You know what? I think It is that

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Speaker 1: Kyrie never comes back. They get bounced in the first

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Speaker 1: round and Steph Curry wins the NBA Championship, which humiliates

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Speaker 1: Kevin Durant. I don't think this is Kevin Durant's final spot.

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Speaker 1: I never liked when he left a fundamentally brilliant organization

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Speaker 1: for a flawed one. Golden State to Brooklyn. I think

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Speaker 1: if Kyrie doesn't come back, he gets bounced early in

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Speaker 1: the playoffs and his former teammate wins a title. I

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Speaker 1: would actually not be shocked if he didn't reconsider Golden

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Speaker 1: State and absolutely consider leaving Brooklyn. Kyrie's absence is making

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Speaker 1: KD look foolish. You never want to make a superstar

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Speaker 1: look foolish. Dear Colin, what do you make of people

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Speaker 1: mocking Zion for his noticeable weight gain? Is it getting

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Speaker 1: out of hand? Okay, First of all, I hear the

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Speaker 1: term fat shaming, but eighty seven percent of COVID deaths

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Speaker 1: have been about age or obesity. That's data, that's not shaming.

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Speaker 1: If you're a pro athlete, fitness is just the baseline

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Speaker 1: of things I'm asking. It's like being an actor and

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Speaker 1: you can't memorize lines. If I criticize you for it,

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Speaker 1: is that line shaming or incompetence. I don't ask a

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Speaker 1: lot for my pro athletes. You don't have to be

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Speaker 1: a perfect person, you don't have to be a great leader,

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Speaker 1: you don't have to be a great player. But being

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Speaker 1: in shape is like asking a baker to be able

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Speaker 1: to just mix ingredients. It's not fat shaming. It's holding

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Speaker 1: a professional athlete to a bare minimum standard. Dear Colin,

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Speaker 1: if you have the power to control who wins the

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl this year, who would you want to see

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Speaker 1: win at all? I like results that are confounding, hard

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Speaker 1: to explain, and interesting. I think if the Dallas Cowboys

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Speaker 1: won with Mike McCarthy as head coach, we wouldn't know

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Speaker 1: what the hell to do with ourselves. It would confuse people.

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Speaker 1: So Mike McCarthy has more Super Bowls than Aaron Rodgers,

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Speaker 1: it would be the Rubik's Cube of sports championships. What

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Speaker 1: I thought he couldn't he was the problem in Green Bay.

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Speaker 1: What if Mike McCarthy outdueled Bill Belichick, outdueled Andy Reid

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Speaker 1: and won the Super Bowl? What we wouldn't know what

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Speaker 1: to do with ourselves? It would be a fascinating topic

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Speaker 1: that maybe Aaron Rodgers and his passive aggressive nature, despite

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Speaker 1: his brilliance, is a little bit more of a roadblock

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Speaker 1: than we think. How about Aaron Rodgers out in the

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Speaker 1: first round, Belichick makes another Super Bowl is outdueled by

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Speaker 1: Mike McCarthy. That's a talk radio host dream. Dear Colin,

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Speaker 1: this may be a little out there, But is there

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Speaker 1: some deep psychological reason we talk about the NFL more

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Speaker 1: than every other sport. No. I think most people understand

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Speaker 1: it gets big ratings, we like gambling on it. The

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Speaker 1: games are once a week, so it has urgency. But

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Speaker 1: I think the greatest strength of the NFL is simply

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Speaker 1: its product. In the NBA, we really don't watch the

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Speaker 1: games until the conference finals and the finals. I see

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Speaker 1: the ratings. We like the drama and we enjoy the highlights,

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Speaker 1: but we don't already watch the games. Baseball, we don't

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Speaker 1: watch it into the playoffs too. We love its history.

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Speaker 1: We love talking about old baseball players. There's a radio

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Speaker 1: host who's very good. His name is Chris Russo. He

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Speaker 1: loves talking baseball. He talks about it like it's the seventies,

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Speaker 1: and every time he talks baseball he waxes poetic about

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Speaker 1: the sixties and seventies. Can you imagine a sports talk

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Speaker 1: show host dipping into the Red Grange well to talk

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Speaker 1: current NFL. The key of the NFL is the product

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Speaker 1: is so good. We don't even talk about players who

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Speaker 1: were great like ten years ago. There's no reason to

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Speaker 1: talk about Brett Farve because Aaron Rodgers is so good.

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Speaker 1: There's no reason to talk about Len Dawson of the

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Speaker 1: Chiefs because Patrick Mahomes is so fascinating. I'll be honest,

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Speaker 1: There's no reason to talk about Brady in New England

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Speaker 1: because the mac Jones story is so good. The quality

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Speaker 1: of the product is so good in the NFL that

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Speaker 1: I don't need drama and I don't need history. It's

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Speaker 1: that simple players who were great less than a decade

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Speaker 1: ago literally never come up in the discussion. Ladinian, Tomlinson,

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Speaker 1: Ray Lewis, who cares the current product? The current players

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Speaker 1: are so good. I don't need controversy, I don't need history.

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Speaker 1: Just give me the games at one o'clock every Sunday,

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Speaker 1: all right, I bring in Chad Millman, chief content Officer

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Speaker 1: an Action Network. I had a steaming hot week, Farrell

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Speaker 1: very good. I would first of all, I've hit eleven

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Speaker 1: of twelve college picks on fan Duel. I'm on fire,

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Speaker 1: and I had a very good NFL week. So I

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Speaker 1: want to start with this because I never in my

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Speaker 1: history like big favorites, and I've taken a big favorite

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Speaker 1: four weeks in a row and I've hit on three

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Speaker 1: of them. So there is not a big favorite. I

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Speaker 1: love this week. I thought the Browns at minus ten

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Speaker 1: was interesting. Eleven and a half, I'd probably stay away,

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Speaker 1: But the Chargers at five and a half now it's

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Speaker 1: minus six and a half now is interesting to me.

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Speaker 1: So listen. The Steelers simply aren't good enough offensively to

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Speaker 1: go to a clear mediocre backup. Mason Rudolph's not just

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Speaker 1: a backup, he's not a top ten backup. And a

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Speaker 1: Charger team. Now that Kansas City a little bit of

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Speaker 1: a reboot, this Charger team's got a couple of close losses.

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Speaker 1: Minnesota is better than we think. This is my big

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Speaker 1: favorite of the week. I like the Chargers minus five

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Speaker 1: and a half to six and a half sharper square.

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Speaker 1: It's kind of square, is it? Ah? Yeah? Sure? Or

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Speaker 1: was that a song? You're way too hip to be square?

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Speaker 1: But the wise guys they like the Steelers in this spot.

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Speaker 1: I think even if Mason Rudolph isn't playing, I mean,

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Speaker 1: if if Ben Roethlisberger isn't playing, they like the Steelers

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Speaker 1: in this spot. Mike Tomlin is rob Ron Mike. This

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Speaker 1: is when he wins. And I'm not just talking about

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Speaker 1: as an underdog. He wins outright in these spots in

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Speaker 1: his rear twenty five and fourteen outright as an underdog

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Speaker 1: in this spot. This is a really good running team

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Speaker 1: in the Steelers against a terrible running defense. It is

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Speaker 1: a defense we're still not sure about t J. Watt,

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Speaker 1: but it's still a really good defense against Justin Herbert,

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Speaker 1: who all the rookie struggles that we thought he would

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Speaker 1: have last year, he's starting to have this year. Defenses

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Speaker 1: are adjusting and figuring him out. He's having some accuracy issues.

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Speaker 1: Joey Bosa is going to be out of the game.

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Speaker 1: It's just it's not a great spot for the Chargers,

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Speaker 1: especially with the number climbing. In fact, I've heard from

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Speaker 1: plenty of guys who have said they're betting the Steelers

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Speaker 1: outright on the money line. All right, so now let's

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Speaker 1: go to my dogs, which is mostly who I like

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Speaker 1: this week. I'll start with Washington plus two points three

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Speaker 1: to three and a half at Carolina. All right, Cam

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Speaker 1: Newton is now got a week of practice. Washington, to me,

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Speaker 1: despite the loss of Chase Young, is still talented in

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Speaker 1: their front seven. I have Ron Rivera who knows every

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Speaker 1: idiosyncrasy of Cam Newton. I think they have as good

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Speaker 1: a roster or better. Carolina is not a great home team.

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Speaker 1: Washington gets a field gold or more. This is one

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Speaker 1: of the simple ones Sharper square. I like the Washington

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Speaker 1: football team, so look, this is a sharp side for you.

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Speaker 1: I think a lot of people like the Washington football

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Speaker 1: team in this spot. The Panthers defense, by the way,

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Speaker 1: they're probably one of the top five defenses in the league.

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Speaker 1: Over the next few years, they're just going to be dominant.

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Speaker 1: But I think some of it has to do with

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Speaker 1: Cam Newton, like he's just not a good quarterback, and

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Speaker 1: the fact that all of a sudden he's getting the reps,

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Speaker 1: or that everyone's excited about the fact he came back.

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Speaker 1: That is not providing you value in the market, and

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Speaker 1: it's shouldn't be providing you value in the market. And

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Speaker 1: yet the Panthers open to three and a half. This

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Speaker 1: game got bet down to three, which tells you that

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Speaker 1: the money is coming in on the Washington football team.

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Speaker 1: And I do think that the Ron Rivera stuff has

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Speaker 1: an impact on that. I think that he has talked

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Speaker 1: about how of course he's got thoughts about how to

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Speaker 1: scheme defensively against Cam Newton and has things in his

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Speaker 1: bag of tricks that he has not shown specifically because

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Speaker 1: he coached Cam for so long. So you're sharp, buddy,

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Speaker 1: one hundred percent sharp, all right. I like Bears plus six.

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Speaker 1: That's been beat down a little. They're hosting the Ravens.

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Speaker 1: First of all, they're off of buy. That is significant

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Speaker 1: for offensive coaches and young quarterbacks. That's extra practice reps.

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Speaker 1: I think the Bears defense is good. I thought justin

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Speaker 1: Fields in the last four starts has made significant adjustments

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Speaker 1: and improvements. I think the Bears can win it straight out.

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Speaker 1: I think the Ravens offense is a tad broken and

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Speaker 1: they're a week on the back end of their defense.

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Speaker 1: Bears plus six is the play Sharper square. Uh, there's

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Speaker 1: no there's no consensus on this game. You liked the

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Speaker 1: Bears because people tend to on a bet on large

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Speaker 1: home underdogs. You liked the Ravens because they're the more

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Speaker 1: talented team with the more talented quarterback, with a little

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Speaker 1: bit of extra time. It's not like the Bears have

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Speaker 1: had to buy. But the Ravens played ten days ago

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Speaker 1: on a Thursday, got killed, So now they've got ten

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Speaker 1: days to stew in this make adjustments. The big challenge here,

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Speaker 1: honestly just looking at this purely on the field, is

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Speaker 1: the Dolphins blitzed the Ravens consistently. Yeah, right, and and

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Speaker 1: that's really that's not a strength of the Ravens, right,

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Speaker 1: And that was partially why the Dolphins won. The Bears

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Speaker 1: have the lowest blitz rate in the league. And Khalil

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Speaker 1: Mack didn't practice this week on Wednesday. Eddie Jackson did

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Speaker 1: not practice this past Wednesday. They have both been out

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Speaker 1: with injuries. So the sharp money has definitely come in

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Speaker 1: on the Bears. The line has moved in the direction.

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Speaker 1: It's gone down as low as five and a half.

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Speaker 1: I've seen four and a half some places. The Bears

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Speaker 1: are definitely the sharp side. It's a pass for me.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to take the Cowboys, my favorite play of

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Speaker 1: the week, plus the points against the Chiefs, and here's

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Speaker 1: my reasoning. So it's two and a half to three.

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Speaker 1: I would take both. So sometimes in life, we want

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Speaker 1: something to be true, and so when we get a

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Speaker 1: glimpse of what could possibly make it true, we put

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Speaker 1: our arms around it and go confirmation bias. This is true.

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Speaker 1: We want Kansas City's offense to be back. It's fun,

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Speaker 1: it's flashy. We know their players. We had them of

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Speaker 1: our fastinacy teams. We like Andy Reid. Beating a chaos

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Speaker 1: leaden Raiders team with an interim head coach, the second

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Speaker 1: worst football team in the last nineteen years in the

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Speaker 1: league to the Cleveland Browns does not mean they're back.

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Speaker 1: It means the Raiders are as they've done in recent years,

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Speaker 1: have no depth and are falling apart, and have like

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Speaker 1: a backup quarterback and interim coach. You get about three

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Speaker 1: good weeks of him and then he's exposed. People now

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Speaker 1: have film on what the Raiders can't do. Dallas does

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Speaker 1: many things well. The Chiefs allow a quarterback passer rating

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Speaker 1: of one hundred, and that includes the Jordan Love game.

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Speaker 1: I think Dak's going to have his way. They're going

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Speaker 1: to move the ball effectively. The blitzers won't be nearly

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Speaker 1: as effective to a heavy weaponized team, and I think

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Speaker 1: Dallas wins comfortably Sharper square square. This is one of

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Speaker 1: those you can just see it in the numbers. The

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Speaker 1: bets are coming in on the Cowboys, the money is

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Speaker 1: coming in on the Chiefs. It's why the line opened

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Speaker 1: at two and a half and has been bed up

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Speaker 1: to three. There have been some interesting things happening with

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs. Mahomes has said outright it's not in his

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Speaker 1: nature to do what he's been asked to do the

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Speaker 1: past few weeks, and don't sleep on the Chiefs. The

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Speaker 1: past few weeks. They found their way into winning, and

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Speaker 1: they have found their way into being contention in the

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Speaker 1: AFC West when they were in last place just a

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Speaker 1: few weeks ago. They're taking what the defense is giving them.

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Speaker 1: Now they're taking the short passes, they're emphasizing the run,

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Speaker 1: and it's giving them the opportunity to set up the

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Speaker 1: longer plays, which is obviously what Mahomes wants to do

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Speaker 1: when he wants to score in those bunches. He wants

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Speaker 1: those big chunk plays. This plays into the advantage of

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Speaker 1: a very aggressive defensive secondary right Treyvon Diggs. They're defensive

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Speaker 1: Their cornerback, who's lighting up the world with all his interceptions,

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Speaker 1: also gives up some of the biggest plays in football.

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Speaker 1: And now Dallas is missing its top two pass rushers,

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Speaker 1: including Randy Gregory who was out, and it's probably been

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Speaker 1: one of the three best pass rushers in the league

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Speaker 1: this season. Then you've got Orlando Brown, who's finally playing

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Speaker 1: better after being signed from the Ravens to be the

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Speaker 1: new left tackle for the Chiefs. The defense, it's not good,

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Speaker 1: but at least it's not as bad as any defense

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Speaker 1: in history anymore. Now, it's just a little bit worse

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Speaker 1: than average. So I feel like if you're getting Mahomes

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Speaker 1: at a field goal or less, that's kind of an advantage,

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Speaker 1: and the wise guys see it that way. NFL season

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Speaker 1: step to five two Arizona. I would take the Seahawks

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Speaker 1: plus points at home against the Cardinals. And here's my

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Speaker 1: reasoning Arizona has a buy after this week. What's the

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Speaker 1: point of bringing Kyler Murray back? Once the Rams lost,

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Speaker 1: you don't have to worry about the divisional lead. You

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Speaker 1: rest Kyler Murray for two weeks. Russell Wilson desperate at

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Speaker 1: home getting points against a backup. I think I take

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Speaker 1: Seattle Sharper square sharp side. The line has moved in

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Speaker 1: their direction, the money is on their side, the bets

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Speaker 1: are on the Cardinal side. Kyler Murray's still not a

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Speaker 1: guarantee to start. DeAndre Hopkins didn't practice this week. You've

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Speaker 1: got Pete Carroll and Russ coming off of a loss

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Speaker 1: that plays in their favor. In the last five games,

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Speaker 1: the Seahawks defense, like the Chiefs, it started to improve. Right.

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Speaker 1: They're giving a fewer points every week. They're giving a

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Speaker 1: fewer points too. Offenses that are really good. The Rams

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Speaker 1: and the Packers and they're doing what they're supposed to

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Speaker 1: do against offenses that aren't very good, say the Saints

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Speaker 1: and the Jags. So those are really good signals for them.

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Speaker 1: And here's an interesting trend, and you take it for

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Speaker 1: what it's worth, but it's a big enough sample size

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Speaker 1: since two thousand and three. Teams that are shut out

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Speaker 1: against the spread, teams that are shut out then playing

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Speaker 1: against teams that aren't coming off of buyety one twenty

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Speaker 1: and three, Oh the nice spot. I would take the

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Speaker 1: Saints plus one and a half at the Eagles. I

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Speaker 1: think the Saints defense is really really elite. Jalen Hurts

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Speaker 1: is getting better. I think it's a coaching mismatch, but

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Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts tends to be hot and cold. We don't

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Speaker 1: really know what we get week to week. I think

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Speaker 1: the Saints in a very low scoring game, win it outright.

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Speaker 1: It feels very much. Let's be honest about the Saints.

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Speaker 1: Takeaway a bad roughing the passer penalty against the Titans,

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Speaker 1: and they could have won that game. It's a very

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Speaker 1: good football team. I've seen them beat Tampa, we've seen

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Speaker 1: them beat Green Bay. They should have beaten Tennessee. One

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Speaker 1: of my stronger bets. I like the Saints plus the points. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: that's totally sharp and the only the only little guy

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Speaker 1: other than Mike Tomlin you want to bet as an

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Speaker 1: underdog over the past twenty years is Sean Payton. He's

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Speaker 1: just He's a coaching mismatch against everybody. He's a great

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Speaker 1: football coach, and as an underdog in this spot against

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Speaker 1: an Eagles team, that defense is terrible. Jalen Hurts is inconsistent.

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Speaker 1: Their running game is good. Here's the problem. Sent through

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Speaker 1: the number one rush defense in the NFL, and that

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Speaker 1: is the only thing the Eagles can do really well.

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Speaker 1: Since twenty eighteen, the Saints are eleven and three outright,

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Speaker 1: meaning winning outright as underdogs. This is a top ten

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Speaker 1: team in DVOA, which is a fancy way of measuring

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Speaker 1: your skill and your stats against a strength of schedule metric.

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Speaker 1: Philly is the middle of the pack, and you mentioned

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Speaker 1: New Orleans. We love them. Last week gets the tight

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Speaker 1: they did as a solid by not converting the two

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Speaker 1: point conversion end of the other game, so we didn't

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Speaker 1: have to sweat over time. I think the Saints are

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Speaker 1: an outright win here. I would take the Giants plus

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Speaker 1: ten and a half at the Buccaneers. I don't think

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Speaker 1: Tampa's right. Gronk's still not back. There's a word now

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00:21:18,200 --> 00:21:21,080
Speaker 1: that ab faked a vaccine card. He may not play.

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Speaker 1: The Giants are good defensively. Daniel Jones doesn't turn it over,

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Speaker 1: meaning you generally have to march sixty seventy yards to score.

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Speaker 1: I don't think Tampa Bay's right. They are getting healthier.

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Speaker 1: Ten and a half is too much. I would take

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00:21:36,280 --> 00:21:40,439
Speaker 1: the Giants to cover here sharper square, it's one hundred

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00:21:40,440 --> 00:21:45,040
Speaker 1: percent sharp. Here's why I don't like it. It's because

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Speaker 1: of reporting that I heard in that a very well

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Speaker 1: respected betting syndicate came in and bet the Buccaneers in

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Speaker 1: a very big way. I would normally want to be

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Speaker 1: all over the Giants, and this line got up to

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Speaker 1: about eleven and a half and then got that down

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Speaker 1: and when it got to ten, it's when the syndicate

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Speaker 1: took the buccaneer. That sounds very important. What does that

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Speaker 1: betting syndicate mean? That's not sold Chicago, right, No, no, no,

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Speaker 1: But what happens is there are Look, there's probably a

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Speaker 1: hundred people in the country who bet professionally at scale

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Speaker 1: and do it well, and a lot of them work

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Speaker 1: together in groups and there's nothing nefarious about it. It's

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Speaker 1: not illegal. But they're known as betting syndicates, and so

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Speaker 1: they move markets. Half the moves that we talk about

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Speaker 1: come from these betting syndicates and a lot of times

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Speaker 1: what they'll end up doing is they'll they'll make a

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Speaker 1: bet on a game. For example, tonight, the Falcons are

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Speaker 1: playing the Patriots. Right this game was at seven. The

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00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:56,920
Speaker 1: line got moved up to seven and a half. The

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00:22:57,080 --> 00:22:59,159
Speaker 1: word is the line got moved up to seven and

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Speaker 1: a half by a setting by a betting syndicate because

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Speaker 1: they wanted to bet the Falcons at seven and a half.

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Speaker 1: And what happened is the number then moved down to

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Speaker 1: six and a half. So let's say they'll bet fifty

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Speaker 1: thousand dollars on one side to get it off the number,

386
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Speaker 1: and then they'll bet one hundred thousand dollars on the

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Speaker 1: other side for the number that they really want. It's

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Speaker 1: a pretty common practice. They're moving the market, they're manipulating it.

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Speaker 1: In this case, a betting syndicate bet big on the

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Speaker 1: Buccaneers at minus ten. You know, I guarantee you where

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Speaker 1: all betting syndicates are in a warehouse in Fort Lauderdale.

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Speaker 1: That's just exactly where they sound like that. I think

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Speaker 1: it's really They're on Industrial Avenue in Vegas. That's really,

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Speaker 1: that's really where they are, Okay. I would take Vikings

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Speaker 1: plus the points hosting green Bay first of all, Kirk

396
00:23:44,640 --> 00:23:47,399
Speaker 1: Cousins seven matchups against green Bay three three and one,

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Speaker 1: Mike Zimmer six seven and one. The Vikings have always

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Speaker 1: played green Bay tough. I also think the Vikings are

399
00:23:53,480 --> 00:23:56,240
Speaker 1: about four possessions away from being a seven win team.

400
00:23:56,680 --> 00:23:58,600
Speaker 1: I took them last week out right. I think they

401
00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:00,800
Speaker 1: can beat the Packers out right. I'd bet the money

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00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:05,240
Speaker 1: line Vikings plus the point Sharper square very sharp, so

403
00:24:05,440 --> 00:24:10,920
Speaker 1: sharp in fact, that the number is now closer to

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00:24:11,520 --> 00:24:15,040
Speaker 1: pick and I think at two and a half it's

405
00:24:15,080 --> 00:24:17,600
Speaker 1: a great number. I think at one you should walk

406
00:24:17,640 --> 00:24:19,480
Speaker 1: away because you're not getting the best of the number.

407
00:24:19,520 --> 00:24:22,200
Speaker 1: I also think come Sunday, the public is going to

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00:24:22,280 --> 00:24:25,080
Speaker 1: come in so heavily on the Packers you might as

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00:24:25,119 --> 00:24:27,680
Speaker 1: well wait until the last possible minute and see which

410
00:24:27,720 --> 00:24:29,479
Speaker 1: way the numbers going and see if you can get

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Speaker 1: the Vikings. If you can get them close to two,

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00:24:31,040 --> 00:24:33,480
Speaker 1: two and a half again top ten team in DVLA.

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00:24:34,040 --> 00:24:36,760
Speaker 1: They should be able to run all day against the

414
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Speaker 1: defense that really can stop the run. And look, Green

415
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Speaker 1: Bay's offense is struggling. Aaron Rodgers this year has been

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Speaker 1: pretty human against the rush, and that is something that

417
00:24:46,080 --> 00:24:50,520
Speaker 1: the Vikings defense does really, really well. So it's one

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Speaker 1: hundred percent the right side here. And also one more thing.

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Speaker 1: We've talked about this a lot. There's regression coming for

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Speaker 1: the Packers. We talked about it with the Cowboys and

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Speaker 1: the Broncos. The Packers are nine and one against the spread.

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00:25:02,960 --> 00:25:07,159
Speaker 1: Teams don't finish fifteen and one, sixteen and one against

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Speaker 1: the spread. A good team normally finishes, you know, eleven

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Speaker 1: and five against the spread. So if you think about

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Speaker 1: it like that, the Cowboys are a team you want

426
00:25:16,160 --> 00:25:18,680
Speaker 1: to fade for the rest of the year. Again, I'm

427
00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:21,960
Speaker 1: going to stay away Lions and Browns because there's some uncertainty.

428
00:25:22,920 --> 00:25:26,080
Speaker 1: A favorite that's interest to me, interesting to me is Miami.

429
00:25:26,720 --> 00:25:29,520
Speaker 1: Whatever the number is minus three at the Jets. Twa

430
00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:32,119
Speaker 1: is healthy enough to play. The ribs are okay, not great.

431
00:25:32,920 --> 00:25:35,159
Speaker 1: The Jets are now going to a third quarterback. I

432
00:25:35,280 --> 00:25:37,280
Speaker 1: think it's one of the worst coach teams in the league.

433
00:25:37,320 --> 00:25:40,000
Speaker 1: The defense is regressing. I wonder if Robert Sala hasn't

434
00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:43,080
Speaker 1: lost the locker room. I think I'd take Miami minus

435
00:25:43,119 --> 00:25:46,800
Speaker 1: two and a half or three sharper square. That's sharp.

436
00:25:47,760 --> 00:25:51,600
Speaker 1: It wouldn't have been sharp if Joe Flacco wasn't playing.

437
00:25:51,840 --> 00:25:54,359
Speaker 1: But that was an indication to a lot of people

438
00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:57,879
Speaker 1: that this is just not a team that you can

439
00:25:58,000 --> 00:26:00,560
Speaker 1: really trust against sort of the press, which is what

440
00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:03,120
Speaker 1: you would imagine when you're when you're taking it, when

441
00:26:03,119 --> 00:26:05,960
Speaker 1: you're looking at numbers you normally want to take. The

442
00:26:06,000 --> 00:26:08,280
Speaker 1: team is the home dog that is, over the course

443
00:26:08,320 --> 00:26:11,320
Speaker 1: of your life, how you were going to find more

444
00:26:11,600 --> 00:26:15,840
Speaker 1: ROI um, the Jets are not in that position this week.

445
00:26:16,560 --> 00:26:19,680
Speaker 1: The Dolphins are the sharp side here. And finally, there's

446
00:26:19,680 --> 00:26:23,480
Speaker 1: always one game that I haven't brought up that you like.

447
00:26:23,680 --> 00:26:27,200
Speaker 1: In fact, if I recall last week's game I used

448
00:26:27,400 --> 00:26:29,280
Speaker 1: on the Blazing five and one, I forget what the

449
00:26:29,359 --> 00:26:32,240
Speaker 1: game was. But the game that just jumped out to

450
00:26:32,320 --> 00:26:35,000
Speaker 1: you that I haven't mentioned it last week could have

451
00:26:35,040 --> 00:26:37,520
Speaker 1: been the Niners. I think it was the Niners. We

452
00:26:37,640 --> 00:26:41,920
Speaker 1: both liked the Niners. We love the Niners. And the

453
00:26:42,040 --> 00:26:44,399
Speaker 1: Niners were a big win for us. Last week, the

454
00:26:44,520 --> 00:26:47,880
Speaker 1: Panthers were a big win for us. It was a big, big,

455
00:26:48,240 --> 00:26:51,480
Speaker 1: big the Washington football team against the Bucks. There's two games.

456
00:26:51,520 --> 00:26:54,880
Speaker 1: I'll give you two a two fur love the Texans

457
00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:58,520
Speaker 1: plus ten and a half against the Titans. Look, you

458
00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:00,680
Speaker 1: just talked about the Vikings being one of those teams

459
00:27:00,760 --> 00:27:04,680
Speaker 1: that is three plays away from being seven and one.

460
00:27:05,320 --> 00:27:09,760
Speaker 1: The Titans are three plays away from being five and five.

461
00:27:10,200 --> 00:27:12,680
Speaker 1: They are power rated, as they are power rated as

462
00:27:12,680 --> 00:27:15,040
Speaker 1: the number one team in the NFL right now. But

463
00:27:15,640 --> 00:27:17,960
Speaker 1: this is a Titans team, a that plays down to

464
00:27:18,040 --> 00:27:21,440
Speaker 1: the competition as a favorite. Mike Rabel is thirteen eighteen

465
00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:23,879
Speaker 1: and one. But it is a team that is so

466
00:27:24,160 --> 00:27:28,000
Speaker 1: overrated in the market because they have wins against the Bills,

467
00:27:28,080 --> 00:27:30,639
Speaker 1: the Colts, the Saints. But let's review for one second.

468
00:27:31,560 --> 00:27:34,639
Speaker 1: Against the Bills, Josh Allen slipped on a quarterback sneak

469
00:27:34,680 --> 00:27:37,680
Speaker 1: that would have won the game. The Colts were killing

470
00:27:37,720 --> 00:27:41,760
Speaker 1: the Titans. Ryan Tannel throws an interception, a Colts defensive

471
00:27:41,800 --> 00:27:44,120
Speaker 1: back picks it off, is running it back for a touchdown,

472
00:27:44,520 --> 00:27:47,240
Speaker 1: tears his acl fumbles the ball. The Titans recover that

473
00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:48,760
Speaker 1: they go on to score a touchdown on that play.

474
00:27:48,840 --> 00:27:52,360
Speaker 1: They win the game. In overtime against the Saints, Ryan

475
00:27:52,400 --> 00:27:55,280
Speaker 1: Tannel throws a pick in the end zone, the Saints

476
00:27:55,320 --> 00:27:58,040
Speaker 1: get it. Ryan Tannehill is then there is a roughing

477
00:27:58,080 --> 00:28:00,639
Speaker 1: the past recall that is a phantom call. Tenn and

478
00:28:00,680 --> 00:28:02,760
Speaker 1: will get to do over scores a touchdown. That's the

479
00:28:02,840 --> 00:28:06,399
Speaker 1: difference in the game, right. So if we're talking about

480
00:28:06,520 --> 00:28:08,960
Speaker 1: these small things that add up to something that is

481
00:28:09,000 --> 00:28:11,399
Speaker 1: the different story than what it should be. That's what

482
00:28:11,480 --> 00:28:13,480
Speaker 1: we're talking about. So Titans ten and a half also

483
00:28:14,040 --> 00:28:16,080
Speaker 1: Cults plus seven against the Bills. The total on this

484
00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:19,280
Speaker 1: game is really low, the spread is really high. That

485
00:28:19,560 --> 00:28:22,760
Speaker 1: normally is an indication that the bookmakers are basically saying,

486
00:28:22,920 --> 00:28:25,240
Speaker 1: we're going to let you take the underdog here because

487
00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:27,000
Speaker 1: we don't think there's going to be a lot of points,

488
00:28:27,240 --> 00:28:29,520
Speaker 1: but there's going to be bad weather. The Bills have

489
00:28:29,720 --> 00:28:33,920
Speaker 1: lost two really good defenses this year. The Cults are

490
00:28:33,960 --> 00:28:36,280
Speaker 1: a really good defense, so I like this game to

491
00:28:36,320 --> 00:28:38,920
Speaker 1: be a little bit close. Well, Bill's offensive line is

492
00:28:39,000 --> 00:28:42,480
Speaker 1: not a good pass blocking offensive line, So as you

493
00:28:42,560 --> 00:28:44,560
Speaker 1: look at your numbers, are the Cults a good pass

494
00:28:44,640 --> 00:28:48,920
Speaker 1: rushing team? If they are. There's your answer. Well, I

495
00:28:49,000 --> 00:28:51,719
Speaker 1: think the Cults are overall just a really good defense,

496
00:28:51,880 --> 00:28:55,800
Speaker 1: and most professional betters have this game rated at about

497
00:28:55,840 --> 00:29:00,840
Speaker 1: three and a half. Wow, the syndicate say that. That's

498
00:29:00,880 --> 00:29:05,120
Speaker 1: a huge The syndicate says it. The syndicate said it

499
00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:10,560
Speaker 1: today on the Favorites podcast. Also, by the way, I

500
00:29:10,880 --> 00:29:13,640
Speaker 1: like there's a couple of games this week. I look

501
00:29:13,800 --> 00:29:16,920
Speaker 1: like I love the Falcons tonight at plus seven. Well, yeah,

502
00:29:16,960 --> 00:29:19,000
Speaker 1: I plus seven. I like him. Yes it's six. I

503
00:29:19,280 --> 00:29:22,680
Speaker 1: stayed away seven. You know what, I'll throw my theory

504
00:29:22,720 --> 00:29:27,560
Speaker 1: at this. This is a Belichick line. So eleven of

505
00:29:27,600 --> 00:29:30,400
Speaker 1: the coaches in the NFL our first or second year

506
00:29:30,440 --> 00:29:33,959
Speaker 1: head coaches Belichick's wins this year or over Robert Sala twice,

507
00:29:34,240 --> 00:29:38,960
Speaker 1: Matt Rule, David Culley. I don't have all the names.

508
00:29:39,000 --> 00:29:43,000
Speaker 1: Oh Staley with the Chargers, He's lost to Sean Payton,

509
00:29:43,280 --> 00:29:48,600
Speaker 1: Bruce Arians, Mike McCarthy. Belichick is facing kids, so now

510
00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:51,000
Speaker 1: he gets Arthur Smith in a short week. So New

511
00:29:51,080 --> 00:29:54,360
Speaker 1: England's gonna win the game but one. But the personnel

512
00:29:54,520 --> 00:29:57,440
Speaker 1: matchups tell you seven just way too many points. To me,

513
00:29:59,080 --> 00:30:02,360
Speaker 1: it is way too many points. Also, six and a

514
00:30:02,400 --> 00:30:05,920
Speaker 1: half and six are becoming There's less and less of

515
00:30:06,000 --> 00:30:10,560
Speaker 1: a distinction in the difference between six and seven because

516
00:30:10,600 --> 00:30:13,440
Speaker 1: six is becoming a key number with the way coaches

517
00:30:13,440 --> 00:30:16,560
Speaker 1: are going for two, with the inaccuracy in the extra

518
00:30:16,640 --> 00:30:21,200
Speaker 1: point kicking increasing. So there's like, you want to get

519
00:30:21,240 --> 00:30:22,880
Speaker 1: the seven. Of course you want to get the seven.

520
00:30:23,560 --> 00:30:25,560
Speaker 1: But if you love the falcons in this spot and

521
00:30:25,640 --> 00:30:29,200
Speaker 1: you get the six, it's not like getting them at five, right,

522
00:30:29,320 --> 00:30:31,240
Speaker 1: You're still going to get them. Sort of on what

523
00:30:31,480 --> 00:30:34,080
Speaker 1: is becoming a key number? And you were looking down

524
00:30:34,080 --> 00:30:37,000
Speaker 1: at your sheet, what was the other thing you liked? Oh,

525
00:30:37,040 --> 00:30:40,840
Speaker 1: I was thinking about money lines. You know, I wouldn't

526
00:30:40,840 --> 00:30:44,000
Speaker 1: be surprised if the Colts won outright, I wouldn't be

527
00:30:44,080 --> 00:30:47,800
Speaker 1: surprised if the Saints won outright. I wouldn't be surprised

528
00:30:47,800 --> 00:30:50,640
Speaker 1: if the Steelers one outright. So sometimes I like to

529
00:30:50,720 --> 00:30:52,680
Speaker 1: parlay my money lines and have a little bit of

530
00:30:52,680 --> 00:30:55,600
Speaker 1: fun and see if I can, you know, score a

531
00:30:55,640 --> 00:31:01,680
Speaker 1: big all approved by the syndicate. It really, honestly, I

532
00:31:02,520 --> 00:31:07,960
Speaker 1: am fascinated by like narcos and sopranos, I'm fascinated by

533
00:31:08,480 --> 00:31:12,680
Speaker 1: the syndicated sounds like a dark subculture that fascinates me.

534
00:31:13,400 --> 00:31:16,960
Speaker 1: You know what, listen, I like, we've talked about this before.

535
00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:21,440
Speaker 1: What I know about betting compared to what other people

536
00:31:21,520 --> 00:31:26,640
Speaker 1: know about betting is infinitesimal. But what I got into

537
00:31:26,680 --> 00:31:28,880
Speaker 1: this for twenty years ago when I wrote The Odds

538
00:31:29,400 --> 00:31:32,600
Speaker 1: was the language the characters, the people that you knew

539
00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:35,920
Speaker 1: in Vegas that I met in Vegas, right, the sharps,

540
00:31:36,120 --> 00:31:40,080
Speaker 1: the squares, the wise guys betting a dime, betting a nickel,

541
00:31:40,400 --> 00:31:45,240
Speaker 1: the syndicate. Like, there's a Damon Runyan component, right. Damon

542
00:31:45,320 --> 00:31:49,800
Speaker 1: Runyan was this brilliant, colorful writer who wrote columns, and

543
00:31:49,840 --> 00:31:52,320
Speaker 1: he wrote plays like Bullets over Broadway and sort of

544
00:31:52,640 --> 00:31:55,520
Speaker 1: all these big, big plays and musicals in the forties

545
00:31:55,920 --> 00:32:00,400
Speaker 1: were full of these ratitat tat tat characters who he romanticized.

546
00:32:00,440 --> 00:32:03,560
Speaker 1: They were the gangsters that he was romanticizing. That's the

547
00:32:03,680 --> 00:32:07,040
Speaker 1: language that's like to me, That's what makes it so much,

548
00:32:07,240 --> 00:32:09,800
Speaker 1: so interesting and so romantic and so fun to cover,

549
00:32:10,440 --> 00:32:13,040
Speaker 1: is I'd like to know what's happening in the syndicate. Now.

550
00:32:13,080 --> 00:32:15,320
Speaker 1: The truth is a lot of the guys at the

551
00:32:15,320 --> 00:32:17,200
Speaker 1: syndicate are hanging out of the steakhouse and cert the

552
00:32:17,240 --> 00:32:20,560
Speaker 1: circus when they can get caught, so it's not as

553
00:32:20,680 --> 00:32:24,320
Speaker 1: romantic as we really think. It's still have you ever

554
00:32:24,400 --> 00:32:27,280
Speaker 1: been to that steakhouse? It's pretty good. Okay, that's pretty good.

555
00:32:27,800 --> 00:32:29,400
Speaker 1: That's really good. I don't mean it to mean the

556
00:32:29,520 --> 00:32:32,640
Speaker 1: circus circus. That's just like you know, it's an inside

557
00:32:32,720 --> 00:32:36,040
Speaker 1: Joe for Vegas fans. Absolutely all right, Buddy, good, seeing

558
00:32:36,080 --> 00:32:43,040
Speaker 1: you as always, my friend. Hey, don't forget. Draymond Green

559
00:32:43,200 --> 00:32:46,880
Speaker 1: is now part of the Volume. Join our YouTube page, subscribe,

560
00:32:46,960 --> 00:32:50,440
Speaker 1: Get Draymond Green. He's outstanding making news. We'll talk soon

561
00:32:50,680 --> 00:33:07,200
Speaker 1: at the Volume Sports, The Volume