1 00:00:09,880 --> 00:00:13,800 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene Jay Ley. 2 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:29,080 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg Joining Us. 5 00:00:29,160 --> 00:00:33,160 Speaker 1: Vincent Reinhart Standish Melon economist and investment strategist. Good morning 6 00:00:33,200 --> 00:00:35,000 Speaker 1: to you, Vince. Is that how you see this plank 7 00:00:35,040 --> 00:00:40,800 Speaker 1: out a short term win? Good more and Jonathan uh So, Look, 8 00:00:40,880 --> 00:00:43,120 Speaker 1: I think that we have to accept that the government's 9 00:00:43,159 --> 00:00:46,280 Speaker 1: going to be shut down for a while, that it 10 00:00:46,360 --> 00:00:52,800 Speaker 1: was pretty clearly a distinct standoff we saw yesterday, and 11 00:00:53,080 --> 00:00:56,520 Speaker 1: that the Federal Reserve is on the sidelines for a bit. 12 00:00:56,760 --> 00:00:59,480 Speaker 1: The minutes will be an interesting this afternoon, though. What 13 00:00:59,520 --> 00:01:01,440 Speaker 1: are you looking for from the minutes? To South Benoon. 14 00:01:02,640 --> 00:01:05,800 Speaker 1: One thing you gotta remember is that the minutes are 15 00:01:05,880 --> 00:01:09,840 Speaker 1: supposed to be an accurate depiction of what was discussed 16 00:01:09,840 --> 00:01:12,400 Speaker 1: at the f MC meeting, But a lot of stuff 17 00:01:12,480 --> 00:01:15,280 Speaker 1: is discussed at the FMC meeting. The transcript runs something 18 00:01:15,319 --> 00:01:17,280 Speaker 1: like a d and twenty pages, and they just still 19 00:01:17,280 --> 00:01:23,160 Speaker 1: look down to eleven or twelve pages in those minutes. Um. Therefore, 20 00:01:23,400 --> 00:01:26,399 Speaker 1: there's some selectivity in the week or two after the 21 00:01:26,480 --> 00:01:31,560 Speaker 1: meeting to nudge the boat in a in a better direction. 22 00:01:32,319 --> 00:01:35,160 Speaker 1: Chair Pal came off a little tone death in the 23 00:01:35,360 --> 00:01:37,640 Speaker 1: in the press conference. They'll try to fix it in 24 00:01:37,640 --> 00:01:41,360 Speaker 1: the minute. So you'll seem more responsive to financial conditions. 25 00:01:41,400 --> 00:01:45,840 Speaker 1: You'll see him more worried about the world and emphasizing 26 00:01:45,880 --> 00:01:50,960 Speaker 1: the range of views on appropriate monetary policy be a 27 00:01:51,000 --> 00:01:53,320 Speaker 1: bigger tent. In an interview in The Wall Street Journal today, 28 00:01:53,400 --> 00:01:55,800 Speaker 1: Jim Blad saying we're bordering on coming too far on 29 00:01:55,960 --> 00:01:59,559 Speaker 1: rates and possibly tipping the economy into recession. If rights 30 00:01:59,560 --> 00:02:01,040 Speaker 1: on left did vince, what do you think of that? 31 00:02:01,160 --> 00:02:03,040 Speaker 1: The idea that we're one right hunk away from a 32 00:02:03,080 --> 00:02:06,040 Speaker 1: policy mistake at a federal reserve. So the first thing 33 00:02:06,040 --> 00:02:08,400 Speaker 1: I would say is I believe in market economies. I 34 00:02:08,440 --> 00:02:11,160 Speaker 1: don't think they're so fragile that if you get a 35 00:02:11,240 --> 00:02:15,120 Speaker 1: quarter point wrong one way or the other, you are 36 00:02:15,280 --> 00:02:19,359 Speaker 1: headed to the abyss. Uh. And so I hope that 37 00:02:19,680 --> 00:02:23,919 Speaker 1: you know the world works better than that. Second, remember 38 00:02:23,960 --> 00:02:29,440 Speaker 1: that president Board has had of you consistently over the 39 00:02:29,639 --> 00:02:33,520 Speaker 1: over the last five years or so. Uh that uh, 40 00:02:33,760 --> 00:02:36,400 Speaker 1: it's not possible to predict where rates are going, and 41 00:02:36,480 --> 00:02:39,280 Speaker 1: so your best estimate of where the neutral rate is 42 00:02:39,280 --> 00:02:42,520 Speaker 1: is where it is right now. And so he could 43 00:02:42,520 --> 00:02:47,640 Speaker 1: have repeated the concern uh he expressed in the in 44 00:02:47,680 --> 00:02:51,720 Speaker 1: the journal, uh, this morning, just about any time over 45 00:02:51,720 --> 00:02:54,600 Speaker 1: the last several years. So I'm not sure that's news, 46 00:02:55,280 --> 00:02:58,760 Speaker 1: Vince Reynard. In the minutes, there's these key words some 47 00:03:00,240 --> 00:03:03,840 Speaker 1: several several members several of this, John, it's like you 48 00:03:03,880 --> 00:03:08,320 Speaker 1: and me, some several, Vince Reynard. How is several different 49 00:03:08,400 --> 00:03:12,960 Speaker 1: with Chairman Powell versus several with yelling bernankey in back 50 00:03:13,080 --> 00:03:16,720 Speaker 1: to your time with Chairman Greenspan. I mean, is there 51 00:03:16,760 --> 00:03:21,120 Speaker 1: an active discussion that Chairman Powell listens to or is 52 00:03:21,120 --> 00:03:25,720 Speaker 1: he alone as Greenspan was alone. So I would say 53 00:03:25,960 --> 00:03:30,360 Speaker 1: the first thing the minutes drafters, and remember I signed 54 00:03:30,360 --> 00:03:33,680 Speaker 1: the minutes for six or seven years. Uh tried he 55 00:03:33,760 --> 00:03:38,920 Speaker 1: used to quill John. It was with a quill can, 56 00:03:39,080 --> 00:03:43,280 Speaker 1: candle light and a quill um. Uh, try to be 57 00:03:43,360 --> 00:03:47,800 Speaker 1: consistent across time. And so I probably everybody still has 58 00:03:47,920 --> 00:03:52,600 Speaker 1: that dog eared cheat sheet on parchment paper. I would 59 00:03:52,600 --> 00:03:55,800 Speaker 1: say that gives the translation of some and several and 60 00:03:55,880 --> 00:03:59,520 Speaker 1: a couple and a few, So I don't think that 61 00:03:59,520 --> 00:04:01,960 Speaker 1: that's not a part of the minute. Question is how 62 00:04:02,480 --> 00:04:10,720 Speaker 1: consultative is chair Pal relative to other of his predecessors. 63 00:04:11,320 --> 00:04:16,200 Speaker 1: My bed is is pretty consultative. He comes from a background, uh, 64 00:04:16,480 --> 00:04:19,800 Speaker 1: you know, from a bush bush triggery from the private sector, 65 00:04:19,800 --> 00:04:23,880 Speaker 1: some think tank um, in which you get along by 66 00:04:24,160 --> 00:04:30,520 Speaker 1: by by getting along. And he uh often said hey, 67 00:04:30,560 --> 00:04:33,960 Speaker 1: I'm not an economist. That means he listens to economists. 68 00:04:34,000 --> 00:04:37,880 Speaker 1: So I would suspect that, um, he does talk a lot. 69 00:04:38,279 --> 00:04:41,280 Speaker 1: I think the concern you should have is he talks 70 00:04:41,320 --> 00:04:44,280 Speaker 1: a lot to people who are just like him. That 71 00:04:44,480 --> 00:04:48,960 Speaker 1: he had a material influence admiring the last eight bank presidents. 72 00:04:49,920 --> 00:04:56,040 Speaker 1: The board appointments are relatively you know, uh similar to his, 73 00:04:56,320 --> 00:05:00,560 Speaker 1: to his they're basically rebuilding the bush triggery um, and 74 00:05:00,680 --> 00:05:03,360 Speaker 1: so there's a question how much diversity of opinion there 75 00:05:03,480 --> 00:05:07,359 Speaker 1: is that the you know, in FMC discussions, that's always 76 00:05:07,360 --> 00:05:09,160 Speaker 1: a risk. Well, then being able to listen to the 77 00:05:09,200 --> 00:05:11,599 Speaker 1: committee is important. Being able to present all the committee 78 00:05:11,640 --> 00:05:16,200 Speaker 1: things coherently and consistently is something altogether different, and I 79 00:05:16,200 --> 00:05:18,360 Speaker 1: see a chairman that's really struggling to do that. We 80 00:05:18,440 --> 00:05:20,400 Speaker 1: seem to have flip from one view to another in 81 00:05:20,400 --> 00:05:23,520 Speaker 1: the emphasis every time he speaks seems to change. Do 82 00:05:23,520 --> 00:05:25,400 Speaker 1: you think the chairman's struggling in the early part of 83 00:05:25,400 --> 00:05:30,479 Speaker 1: his tenure events? So, I think the chairman's uh issue 84 00:05:30,920 --> 00:05:33,560 Speaker 1: and he is that he has an ambition to explain 85 00:05:33,680 --> 00:05:41,600 Speaker 1: monetary policy as as clearly as possible. His audience is 86 00:05:41,640 --> 00:05:45,880 Speaker 1: not Bloomberg or the Wall Street Journal, It's the readership 87 00:05:45,880 --> 00:05:50,279 Speaker 1: of USA today. And the problem is when you try 88 00:05:50,360 --> 00:05:53,880 Speaker 1: to simplify the message to a few key points, you're 89 00:05:53,920 --> 00:05:58,040 Speaker 1: going to leave some stuff out, and global financial markets 90 00:05:58,040 --> 00:06:01,680 Speaker 1: will very quickly remind you what you left out. And 91 00:06:01,760 --> 00:06:05,200 Speaker 1: so I don't uh. So, I think there is an 92 00:06:05,279 --> 00:06:09,800 Speaker 1: issue of how much financial market experience there is at 93 00:06:09,800 --> 00:06:13,719 Speaker 1: the top of the house across you know, when you 94 00:06:13,760 --> 00:06:16,200 Speaker 1: think about the leadership of the said and I think 95 00:06:16,240 --> 00:06:19,760 Speaker 1: there's also a sincere desire to keep it simple. But 96 00:06:20,040 --> 00:06:23,560 Speaker 1: keeping it simple may mean you kept it too simple. 97 00:06:23,680 --> 00:06:26,359 Speaker 1: How important is January thirty? I mean it's changed, I 98 00:06:26,400 --> 00:06:29,000 Speaker 1: know in six, eight weeks, etcetera. But Vince, right now 99 00:06:29,080 --> 00:06:32,200 Speaker 1: we're in ten twelve days away from January thirty. Whatever 100 00:06:32,200 --> 00:06:34,760 Speaker 1: the math is, it's most more than that fifteen days 101 00:06:34,800 --> 00:06:37,680 Speaker 1: or whatever. But but it's right now, how important is 102 00:06:37,720 --> 00:06:41,400 Speaker 1: this January meeting become? So it's important in a couple 103 00:06:41,440 --> 00:06:43,920 Speaker 1: of ways. One is it's how will we handle a 104 00:06:43,960 --> 00:06:48,000 Speaker 1: press conference? Uh, the now that he's will be doing 105 00:06:48,040 --> 00:06:50,400 Speaker 1: eight of them a year. But I think it's also 106 00:06:50,480 --> 00:06:56,280 Speaker 1: important in that they have changed change their communications strategy. 107 00:06:56,520 --> 00:07:00,920 Speaker 1: They don't want to be responsible for commun indicating the 108 00:07:01,160 --> 00:07:05,280 Speaker 1: entire path of interest rates, because that then the headlines 109 00:07:05,320 --> 00:07:08,400 Speaker 1: are the FED tightened and intense to tighten more. They 110 00:07:08,440 --> 00:07:11,240 Speaker 1: want to be able to say the data drove them 111 00:07:11,280 --> 00:07:14,880 Speaker 1: to raise rates this meeting. They don't want the responsibility 112 00:07:14,920 --> 00:07:17,320 Speaker 1: of a long term commitment, but they also don't want 113 00:07:17,320 --> 00:07:20,840 Speaker 1: to comprise markets. So the question is do they lean 114 00:07:20,960 --> 00:07:24,320 Speaker 1: into tightening in March or do they signal that they 115 00:07:24,360 --> 00:07:27,240 Speaker 1: are pausing. That's the big question for January. This has 116 00:07:27,240 --> 00:07:29,280 Speaker 1: been a wonderful Vincent Reynard, thank you so much for 117 00:07:29,320 --> 00:07:32,640 Speaker 1: the briefing with standard Melon of course for years even 118 00:07:32,720 --> 00:07:35,800 Speaker 1: decades with a FED serving as head of research for 119 00:07:35,880 --> 00:07:53,280 Speaker 1: Chairman Alan Greenspan as well. It was an original and 120 00:07:53,360 --> 00:07:56,880 Speaker 1: historic moment for the nation. The President spoke last night, 121 00:07:56,960 --> 00:08:02,000 Speaker 1: let's listen the border wall, when very quickly pay for itself. 122 00:08:02,560 --> 00:08:07,280 Speaker 1: The cost of illegal drugs exceeds five billion dollars a year, 123 00:08:08,160 --> 00:08:11,600 Speaker 1: vastly more than the five point seven billion dollars we 124 00:08:11,640 --> 00:08:15,920 Speaker 1: have requested from Congress. The wall will also be paid 125 00:08:15,960 --> 00:08:20,000 Speaker 1: for indirectly by the great new trade deal we have 126 00:08:20,160 --> 00:08:23,720 Speaker 1: made with Mexico. The President the United States, and of 127 00:08:23,760 --> 00:08:28,120 Speaker 1: course Speaker Pelosi and Senate Leader Schumer speaking after the 128 00:08:28,200 --> 00:08:31,480 Speaker 1: President last night. He is a Democrat from Texas, but 129 00:08:31,600 --> 00:08:36,680 Speaker 1: that barely describes his visceral understanding of the border. There 130 00:08:36,800 --> 00:08:39,280 Speaker 1: is no one I know in America more linked to 131 00:08:39,400 --> 00:08:43,160 Speaker 1: Laredo and the border east and west. And Henry Quire 132 00:08:43,240 --> 00:08:46,600 Speaker 1: of the twenty district in UH, Texas, and of course 133 00:08:46,600 --> 00:08:50,680 Speaker 1: the Democrat and conservative Democrat, I might point out from Texas. 134 00:08:50,960 --> 00:08:53,640 Speaker 1: Mr Quaier, I am thrilled that you're with us today. 135 00:08:53,679 --> 00:08:57,600 Speaker 1: What does President Trump get most wrong about what the 136 00:08:57,720 --> 00:09:01,240 Speaker 1: people on the border want. Well, first of all, he 137 00:09:01,280 --> 00:09:04,480 Speaker 1: makes it sound like it's a crisis and a very 138 00:09:04,559 --> 00:09:07,000 Speaker 1: difficult place to live. If you look at the latest 139 00:09:07,120 --> 00:09:10,040 Speaker 1: FBI stats, UH, and I've looked at him for years, 140 00:09:10,040 --> 00:09:12,800 Speaker 1: that's the same thing. When you look at murder rates, 141 00:09:12,920 --> 00:09:17,840 Speaker 1: crime rate, violent rape assaults and all that the border 142 00:09:17,880 --> 00:09:20,720 Speaker 1: crime rate is lower than the national crime rate. In fact, 143 00:09:20,760 --> 00:09:23,120 Speaker 1: if you look at Laredo, my hometown on the border, 144 00:09:23,720 --> 00:09:26,920 Speaker 1: that murder rate UH is about two or three times 145 00:09:27,000 --> 00:09:29,840 Speaker 1: lower than Washington, d C. So when the President leaves 146 00:09:29,880 --> 00:09:33,120 Speaker 1: tomorrow to the border, the most dangerous thing he's gonna 147 00:09:33,120 --> 00:09:35,280 Speaker 1: see is when he leaves Washington to go to the 148 00:09:35,320 --> 00:09:38,000 Speaker 1: border again. You have a visceral understanding with this, with 149 00:09:38,080 --> 00:09:40,000 Speaker 1: the history of your parents, with the history of a 150 00:09:40,040 --> 00:09:43,600 Speaker 1: Laredo and folks, Laredo isn't Murdy Robin's song. Just for 151 00:09:43,880 --> 00:09:46,800 Speaker 1: to get it straight, Laredo is a huge depot for 152 00:09:46,920 --> 00:09:51,000 Speaker 1: trade in America. Now, it's completely different than the stereotype. 153 00:09:51,600 --> 00:09:54,880 Speaker 1: We're gonna have funding and this is axios. Mike Allen 154 00:09:54,960 --> 00:09:58,400 Speaker 1: just reporting moments ago oh MB is talking to Pentagon 155 00:09:58,920 --> 00:10:03,080 Speaker 1: about a military refunding of this project. How would you 156 00:10:03,160 --> 00:10:06,360 Speaker 1: respond to having the Pentagon come down and do this 157 00:10:06,440 --> 00:10:10,600 Speaker 1: infrastructure project for your Laredo. You know it's wrong, And 158 00:10:10,720 --> 00:10:14,480 Speaker 1: I said on both the subcommittees are appropriations for homeland 159 00:10:14,800 --> 00:10:17,800 Speaker 1: and defense. There are two different things. We're talking about 160 00:10:17,840 --> 00:10:21,880 Speaker 1: a law enforcement issue at the border, not a military issue. 161 00:10:21,880 --> 00:10:24,240 Speaker 1: And the President needs to understand this. If you wanted 162 00:10:24,240 --> 00:10:26,760 Speaker 1: to stop drugs, and the latest d A report will 163 00:10:26,760 --> 00:10:29,560 Speaker 1: tell you that most drugs that come into the United 164 00:10:29,600 --> 00:10:33,800 Speaker 1: States will come through ports of entry uh. Cars, drugs 165 00:10:34,200 --> 00:10:36,320 Speaker 1: uh and And he just doesn't understand that a wall 166 00:10:36,440 --> 00:10:38,320 Speaker 1: is not going to stop the drugs coming in the 167 00:10:38,360 --> 00:10:40,480 Speaker 1: way he thinks it is. So he's got to have 168 00:10:40,559 --> 00:10:44,079 Speaker 1: a better understanding the way the border works. And require 169 00:10:44,160 --> 00:10:46,359 Speaker 1: you're you're on the edge of the Blue Dog coalition, 170 00:10:46,400 --> 00:10:49,839 Speaker 1: you're a conservative Democrat. There's a lot of Republicans out there, 171 00:10:49,840 --> 00:10:51,960 Speaker 1: we saw this at the election, who have moved away 172 00:10:52,320 --> 00:10:55,120 Speaker 1: from the certitude of the president of belief in the president. 173 00:10:55,400 --> 00:10:59,719 Speaker 1: How lonely is this president within his Republican party. How 174 00:10:59,720 --> 00:11:04,160 Speaker 1: many Republicans are over with the Blue Dog coalition. You know, 175 00:11:04,240 --> 00:11:06,840 Speaker 1: it's interesting. That's a very good point. When you talk 176 00:11:06,880 --> 00:11:10,079 Speaker 1: to a lot of the Republicans on on a private matter, 177 00:11:10,280 --> 00:11:13,280 Speaker 1: they'll tell you that they understand that the President is 178 00:11:13,320 --> 00:11:16,959 Speaker 1: not correct on this issue, but many of the times 179 00:11:16,960 --> 00:11:19,280 Speaker 1: they have to stick with them because the party. But 180 00:11:19,360 --> 00:11:21,199 Speaker 1: a lot of them understand that the wall is a 181 00:11:21,320 --> 00:11:25,400 Speaker 1: fourteenth century solution to a twenty one century problem. He 182 00:11:25,520 --> 00:11:28,080 Speaker 1: thinks that the only way you're gonna secure the border 183 00:11:28,440 --> 00:11:31,480 Speaker 1: is by having a wall, and that's wrong as China 184 00:11:31,920 --> 00:11:33,959 Speaker 1: at you know, look at the Berlin Wall, look at 185 00:11:34,640 --> 00:11:36,840 Speaker 1: the Germans and the French are in the World War One. 186 00:11:37,200 --> 00:11:41,040 Speaker 1: You know, we just gotta look at technology and personnel 187 00:11:41,200 --> 00:11:44,760 Speaker 1: and other ways of securing the border. Right, So so 188 00:11:44,800 --> 00:11:48,520 Speaker 1: that Congressman, what you're calling for is more practical border security. 189 00:11:48,600 --> 00:11:50,559 Speaker 1: Do we have any idea of how much that would cost? 190 00:11:50,640 --> 00:11:53,240 Speaker 1: What kind of training are you talking about? Well, you know, 191 00:11:53,320 --> 00:11:56,200 Speaker 1: first of all, let's look at border patrol. Uh where? 192 00:11:56,320 --> 00:11:59,400 Speaker 1: Now two thousand border patrols short from the higher lights 193 00:11:59,440 --> 00:12:02,160 Speaker 1: that we used to half two thousand border patrol. So 194 00:12:02,200 --> 00:12:05,480 Speaker 1: what does the administration do? They put a two million 195 00:12:05,480 --> 00:12:08,880 Speaker 1: dollar contract to hire border patrol to show them how 196 00:12:08,880 --> 00:12:11,520 Speaker 1: to hire border patrol. In fact, they just hired with 197 00:12:11,679 --> 00:12:14,959 Speaker 1: fourteen point eight million dollars. They hired two new border patrol. 198 00:12:15,240 --> 00:12:17,800 Speaker 1: Now maybe one of them is Captain America. I don't know, 199 00:12:17,840 --> 00:12:19,880 Speaker 1: but if you're gonna spend that much money, you better 200 00:12:19,920 --> 00:12:22,400 Speaker 1: get something good for for that money. So we gotta 201 00:12:22,480 --> 00:12:25,320 Speaker 1: hire border patrol. We gotta give them the equipment. The 202 00:12:25,400 --> 00:12:28,480 Speaker 1: military has a lot of technology that works very well. 203 00:12:28,559 --> 00:12:31,120 Speaker 1: A lot of the tech companies out there have the 204 00:12:31,240 --> 00:12:35,160 Speaker 1: latest technology that works very well. But again, we can't 205 00:12:35,160 --> 00:12:37,720 Speaker 1: play defense on the one yard line called the US 206 00:12:37,800 --> 00:12:41,120 Speaker 1: Mexico border, where we spent over eighteen billion dollars. We 207 00:12:41,240 --> 00:12:44,559 Speaker 1: got to expand that work with Mexico with Central America. 208 00:12:44,640 --> 00:12:46,600 Speaker 1: A couple of years ago, if I can say this briefly, 209 00:12:46,920 --> 00:12:49,760 Speaker 1: we added fourteen million dollars to help Mexico secure the 210 00:12:49,760 --> 00:12:53,120 Speaker 1: border with Guatemala. Did you know with that amount of 211 00:12:53,120 --> 00:12:55,880 Speaker 1: money they were able to stop over two d and 212 00:12:55,920 --> 00:12:59,240 Speaker 1: twenty thousand people a year, people that would have come 213 00:12:59,280 --> 00:13:01,840 Speaker 1: to our borders. We gotta be smart on how we 214 00:13:01,920 --> 00:13:06,120 Speaker 1: secure the border. Congressman, how what kind of changes would 215 00:13:06,120 --> 00:13:09,520 Speaker 1: you also make to the American detention system? Well, you know, 216 00:13:09,800 --> 00:13:12,240 Speaker 1: again the detention. You know, one of the things I've 217 00:13:12,280 --> 00:13:15,240 Speaker 1: done is I make sure that there's transparency, make sure 218 00:13:15,280 --> 00:13:18,000 Speaker 1: that you know we if somebody ends up in the detention, 219 00:13:18,000 --> 00:13:21,360 Speaker 1: that we treat them with dignity and respect. But again, 220 00:13:21,840 --> 00:13:25,320 Speaker 1: you know, uh, it's important to know that detention is 221 00:13:25,320 --> 00:13:28,120 Speaker 1: a deterrence. We can and not have catch and release. 222 00:13:28,440 --> 00:13:30,600 Speaker 1: And I know that some of my Democrat party don't 223 00:13:30,600 --> 00:13:33,959 Speaker 1: like detentions, but again, you gotta have some detention beds, 224 00:13:34,000 --> 00:13:36,600 Speaker 1: because if somebody comes in, you gotta be able to 225 00:13:36,720 --> 00:13:39,680 Speaker 1: hold them and then send them back. I want to 226 00:13:40,000 --> 00:13:43,000 Speaker 1: stretch from Laredo up to the sixteenth District and help 227 00:13:43,000 --> 00:13:47,640 Speaker 1: pass so and Congresswoman Escobar's district as well. That's the 228 00:13:47,800 --> 00:13:50,440 Speaker 1: span in the reach. That's the emotion that the President 229 00:13:50,480 --> 00:13:56,120 Speaker 1: talks about. Speak to liberal Democrats about their belief on 230 00:13:56,160 --> 00:13:59,959 Speaker 1: the wall. What the liberal Democrats get wrong, the cushion 231 00:14:00,040 --> 00:14:04,080 Speaker 1: Democrats of California, even the President up on Fifth Avenue 232 00:14:04,320 --> 00:14:07,640 Speaker 1: in New York, what do they get wrong about a 233 00:14:07,720 --> 00:14:12,840 Speaker 1: liberal approach to our immigration and border activity. Well, you know, again, 234 00:14:12,920 --> 00:14:15,560 Speaker 1: so without due respect. I think the extreme right and 235 00:14:15,559 --> 00:14:18,319 Speaker 1: the extreme left don't understand the way the border works 236 00:14:18,360 --> 00:14:21,440 Speaker 1: without due respect. Some people want open borders. I don't 237 00:14:21,440 --> 00:14:23,640 Speaker 1: believe in open borders. I want to have a law 238 00:14:23,720 --> 00:14:26,120 Speaker 1: and order at the border. And we have that. Like 239 00:14:26,160 --> 00:14:29,120 Speaker 1: I said, our our areas are very safe. That we 240 00:14:29,200 --> 00:14:31,640 Speaker 1: have problems, of course we do, but it's safer than 241 00:14:31,720 --> 00:14:35,000 Speaker 1: many other places. But the bottom line is, uh, you know, 242 00:14:35,040 --> 00:14:37,200 Speaker 1: you've got to have some sort of deterrence. You cannot 243 00:14:37,240 --> 00:14:39,800 Speaker 1: just open up the border to anybody coming in. And 244 00:14:39,840 --> 00:14:41,840 Speaker 1: if you're gonna have a wall too, And I say 245 00:14:41,840 --> 00:14:45,040 Speaker 1: that to to to certain people a wall if you 246 00:14:45,280 --> 00:14:47,880 Speaker 1: I've asked this question to all the border patrol chiefs 247 00:14:47,920 --> 00:14:50,920 Speaker 1: since Bush, Obama, and Trump, and I've asked them how 248 00:14:51,000 --> 00:14:54,200 Speaker 1: much time there's a border wall by you quote this 249 00:14:54,240 --> 00:14:56,880 Speaker 1: is from from all of them, a few minutes or 250 00:14:56,920 --> 00:14:59,760 Speaker 1: a few seconds. So we're gonna spend billions of dollars 251 00:15:00,320 --> 00:15:03,320 Speaker 1: to uh to spend on a wall? Or do I 252 00:15:03,400 --> 00:15:05,400 Speaker 1: spend a hundred dollars and buy you a ladder that 253 00:15:05,440 --> 00:15:09,720 Speaker 1: can jump people over that uh, that fence. One final question, 254 00:15:09,840 --> 00:15:12,080 Speaker 1: I know Dr Quaire that the only reason you got 255 00:15:12,080 --> 00:15:15,400 Speaker 1: elected is your affiliation with the University of Texas and 256 00:15:15,400 --> 00:15:17,880 Speaker 1: what Texas A and m as well, folks, that is 257 00:15:17,920 --> 00:15:21,560 Speaker 1: just in Texas. You don't do that, and Mr Quaire 258 00:15:21,720 --> 00:15:25,200 Speaker 1: did as well. What is it signal to Texas that 259 00:15:25,320 --> 00:15:28,600 Speaker 1: Apple computer is gonna drop another x thousands of bodies 260 00:15:28,920 --> 00:15:34,040 Speaker 1: into austin Texas? What does that signal about Texas capitalism? 261 00:15:34,080 --> 00:15:37,200 Speaker 1: You know, let me tell you Texas some years ago 262 00:15:37,400 --> 00:15:41,120 Speaker 1: was was creating about one third of all the private 263 00:15:41,200 --> 00:15:43,600 Speaker 1: jobs in the country. One third. We were just growing, 264 00:15:43,640 --> 00:15:47,160 Speaker 1: so we got trade is important to our area. Uh, 265 00:15:47,320 --> 00:15:49,800 Speaker 1: energy is very important to oiline gas is very important 266 00:15:49,800 --> 00:15:52,320 Speaker 1: to our area. But now the tech. If you go 267 00:15:52,400 --> 00:15:54,520 Speaker 1: to Austin and I used to work there at Secretary 268 00:15:54,520 --> 00:15:56,920 Speaker 1: of State and as a State rep. I've seen Austin 269 00:15:56,960 --> 00:16:00,840 Speaker 1: now become a hub for technology for new startups and 270 00:16:00,920 --> 00:16:03,480 Speaker 1: so that that means a lot. They just got to 271 00:16:03,520 --> 00:16:06,240 Speaker 1: work on the transportation because it's got a little congested 272 00:16:06,240 --> 00:16:09,440 Speaker 1: in Austin. Congressman, thank you so much. Enquire the twenty 273 00:16:09,440 --> 00:16:12,680 Speaker 1: eight district in Texas, thank you for joining us. Thanks 274 00:16:12,880 --> 00:16:28,520 Speaker 1: so much. With us is the right person to speak 275 00:16:28,560 --> 00:16:33,240 Speaker 1: to on the changes of Mr Trump's Republican Party, and 276 00:16:33,240 --> 00:16:36,720 Speaker 1: he is John Braybender, working with Mr Santorum among others. 277 00:16:37,400 --> 00:16:40,960 Speaker 1: Mr Brabender has been in recovery from the lousy Steelers 278 00:16:41,000 --> 00:16:43,600 Speaker 1: season that we've just seen, and we're thrilled that he 279 00:16:43,640 --> 00:16:48,080 Speaker 1: could join us today as well. John. When I look 280 00:16:48,400 --> 00:16:51,760 Speaker 1: at the Republican Party, it has to be a party 281 00:16:51,840 --> 00:16:54,840 Speaker 1: of change. There's a lot of talk about Democrats, the 282 00:16:54,880 --> 00:16:59,320 Speaker 1: new liberalism of the Democratic Party. With this crisis right now, 283 00:17:00,280 --> 00:17:03,320 Speaker 1: what do you perceive is the change in Republicans as 284 00:17:03,360 --> 00:17:07,680 Speaker 1: they greet two thousand nineteen. Well, look, first of all, 285 00:17:07,720 --> 00:17:11,399 Speaker 1: we're we're saying the President and the Republican Party are synonymous, 286 00:17:11,440 --> 00:17:15,520 Speaker 1: and I'm not sure that on this particular shoe they are. 287 00:17:15,640 --> 00:17:20,320 Speaker 1: I think everybody agrees with border security, everybody agrees with 288 00:17:20,400 --> 00:17:23,919 Speaker 1: the importance of getting something done. The real question comes, 289 00:17:24,280 --> 00:17:27,280 Speaker 1: do you do it at the expense of closing down 290 00:17:27,359 --> 00:17:30,359 Speaker 1: the government? And you know, one thing that I've learned 291 00:17:30,359 --> 00:17:34,560 Speaker 1: over time is that generally the White House owns problems, 292 00:17:34,600 --> 00:17:38,000 Speaker 1: whether they created them or not. And so what what 293 00:17:38,080 --> 00:17:40,320 Speaker 1: I really believe is that last night turned out to 294 00:17:40,320 --> 00:17:45,000 Speaker 1: be a non event because there was no major announcement. Uh. 295 00:17:45,080 --> 00:17:46,760 Speaker 1: In fact, you know, the only thing I think we 296 00:17:46,920 --> 00:17:49,520 Speaker 1: learned were two things. What is that President Trump is 297 00:17:49,600 --> 00:17:53,680 Speaker 1: much more comfortable in front of twenty thousand people out 298 00:17:53,680 --> 00:17:56,320 Speaker 1: an auditorium trying to free wheel it. And I think 299 00:17:56,320 --> 00:17:59,720 Speaker 1: we also learned what Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer will 300 00:17:59,720 --> 00:18:02,320 Speaker 1: look if they were ever side by side at a 301 00:18:02,320 --> 00:18:06,600 Speaker 1: wax museum. Beyond that, I don't think every you were 302 00:18:06,760 --> 00:18:09,879 Speaker 1: left they're saying where where do we go? But it's 303 00:18:09,920 --> 00:18:13,760 Speaker 1: an easier message for the Democrats. The presidents saying we 304 00:18:13,840 --> 00:18:17,600 Speaker 1: need border security borders really means a wall, and I'm 305 00:18:17,600 --> 00:18:20,320 Speaker 1: not opening until we did it. I mean, you know, 306 00:18:21,480 --> 00:18:25,360 Speaker 1: but you've always had a more sophisticated message about GOP politics, 307 00:18:25,359 --> 00:18:28,600 Speaker 1: and some people think it's a Whig Party forty going 308 00:18:28,640 --> 00:18:32,879 Speaker 1: into oblivion. What is a gentleman from Kentucky need to 309 00:18:33,000 --> 00:18:39,640 Speaker 1: do to regain a voice for non Trumpian Republicans. Well, 310 00:18:39,640 --> 00:18:42,520 Speaker 1: and that's a that's a really good point, because what 311 00:18:42,640 --> 00:18:46,680 Speaker 1: I believe this president was elected on was a lot 312 00:18:46,720 --> 00:18:50,560 Speaker 1: of disenfranchised Americans who had very little loyalty the either 313 00:18:50,720 --> 00:18:54,480 Speaker 1: party that felt both sides and let them left them 314 00:18:54,520 --> 00:18:59,040 Speaker 1: alone on the economic battlefield, and that it chronically took 315 00:18:59,080 --> 00:19:02,600 Speaker 1: a billionaire to give them a loud enough megaphone to 316 00:19:02,720 --> 00:19:05,639 Speaker 1: say I'm gonna go there, fight for you, give you 317 00:19:05,680 --> 00:19:08,960 Speaker 1: a voice and change things. In fact, I think you 318 00:19:09,000 --> 00:19:11,880 Speaker 1: know more than you know. Everybody cheered the wall when 319 00:19:11,960 --> 00:19:15,000 Speaker 1: Donald Trump keep these speeches. What I think was missed 320 00:19:15,080 --> 00:19:18,359 Speaker 1: was what people were really cheering even louder for, was 321 00:19:18,400 --> 00:19:21,439 Speaker 1: heven saying I was going to drain the swamp. And 322 00:19:21,520 --> 00:19:24,160 Speaker 1: I think that where the party has gotten off here 323 00:19:24,200 --> 00:19:27,280 Speaker 1: a little bit is uh number one, we're poor on messaging. 324 00:19:27,400 --> 00:19:31,120 Speaker 1: Number two, it is more of this shake up Washington 325 00:19:31,320 --> 00:19:34,560 Speaker 1: and make it for real people again. That is going 326 00:19:34,640 --> 00:19:38,480 Speaker 1: to get the president reelected. And honestly, I'm not sure 327 00:19:38,520 --> 00:19:40,720 Speaker 1: that they go to bed at night worrying as much 328 00:19:40,760 --> 00:19:43,480 Speaker 1: about the wall as they do about their next next 329 00:19:43,480 --> 00:19:47,920 Speaker 1: paycheck and fuming over the fact that Washington politicians, in 330 00:19:48,000 --> 00:19:51,159 Speaker 1: Washington insiders seem to have a lot of benefits and 331 00:19:51,200 --> 00:19:53,680 Speaker 1: privileges that they don't enjoy. So Joel Nice, talk about 332 00:19:53,680 --> 00:19:56,680 Speaker 1: the classic grid luck we have right now. Typically it's 333 00:19:56,760 --> 00:19:59,720 Speaker 1: tension elsewhere the breaks the grid luck. What it's the 334 00:19:59,760 --> 00:20:01,960 Speaker 1: ten shouldn't come from? Is it the lines of the airport, 335 00:20:02,119 --> 00:20:04,680 Speaker 1: Is it the employees that don't receive that paychecks? Where 336 00:20:04,680 --> 00:20:07,960 Speaker 1: does it come from? But well, what it really comes 337 00:20:07,960 --> 00:20:10,120 Speaker 1: from is who's gonna win in the poll data that's 338 00:20:10,119 --> 00:20:13,280 Speaker 1: going to influence the next election. If one side or 339 00:20:13,320 --> 00:20:15,680 Speaker 1: the other side feels that somebody else has all of 340 00:20:15,720 --> 00:20:19,119 Speaker 1: a sudden gaining an advantage, they're gonna move on this. 341 00:20:19,240 --> 00:20:22,159 Speaker 1: I mean, let's be honest. This is a public relations 342 00:20:22,240 --> 00:20:26,840 Speaker 1: and pr problem. It is it is not a policy problem. 343 00:20:26,880 --> 00:20:29,159 Speaker 1: And and so you know, you have two sides who 344 00:20:29,200 --> 00:20:31,560 Speaker 1: are trying to figure out how they can make the 345 00:20:31,600 --> 00:20:35,480 Speaker 1: other side own this, which appears to be losing. John, 346 00:20:35,520 --> 00:20:38,280 Speaker 1: We're gonna run out of time, but we would love 347 00:20:38,359 --> 00:20:40,359 Speaker 1: to get you back on again with us, and of 348 00:20:40,359 --> 00:20:44,200 Speaker 1: course with Kevin so early down a FM in Washington, 349 00:20:44,280 --> 00:20:46,360 Speaker 1: John Brave Under, thank you so much, just way way 350 00:20:46,400 --> 00:20:48,920 Speaker 1: too short a time. Today we'll have Mr brave under 351 00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:52,120 Speaker 1: on away uh on again of course with brave Undercott 352 00:20:52,520 --> 00:21:11,679 Speaker 1: Cox in Washington. This is a joy. We'd like to 353 00:21:11,680 --> 00:21:16,200 Speaker 1: see her every ninety days. We don't. Betsy is just happy. 354 00:21:16,280 --> 00:21:21,440 Speaker 1: We have an adult in the room of Morgan Stanley 355 00:21:21,840 --> 00:21:24,399 Speaker 1: and every everybody on the cell side is their own style. 356 00:21:24,600 --> 00:21:28,520 Speaker 1: Ms Graci style is to do pristine work on the banks, 357 00:21:28,680 --> 00:21:33,199 Speaker 1: involving a lot of analysis, math in numbers and the 358 00:21:33,280 --> 00:21:37,000 Speaker 1: mathiness of Betsy Grazi or Morgan Stanley with your team. 359 00:21:37,040 --> 00:21:40,320 Speaker 1: What's the Mathew number that sticks out right now for 360 00:21:40,359 --> 00:21:45,439 Speaker 1: the banks loan loan or what's the math thing that 361 00:21:45,560 --> 00:21:47,679 Speaker 1: matters right now? The math thing that matters for the 362 00:21:47,720 --> 00:21:53,080 Speaker 1: stocks is that they are pricing in recession level valuations 363 00:21:54,560 --> 00:21:57,280 Speaker 1: even though radio you have to keep talking, okay, so 364 00:21:57,520 --> 00:22:05,240 Speaker 1: even okay, even though we've got fundamentals that are flashing positive. 365 00:22:06,080 --> 00:22:08,359 Speaker 1: So that's that's so, what's your level is strong by 366 00:22:08,440 --> 00:22:10,760 Speaker 1: what's your level of conviction right now in the major banks, 367 00:22:11,320 --> 00:22:15,719 Speaker 1: we'll overweight the group, and our top picks are State Street, 368 00:22:16,040 --> 00:22:19,280 Speaker 1: Bank of America and JP Morgan. So usually going into 369 00:22:19,400 --> 00:22:22,159 Speaker 1: arning season, we've had some guidance on traving revenue from 370 00:22:22,160 --> 00:22:24,800 Speaker 1: the big CEO, somebody's big banks. They got it this 371 00:22:24,840 --> 00:22:26,480 Speaker 1: one way, then got us in another in the spice 372 00:22:26,520 --> 00:22:28,040 Speaker 1: of a couple of weeks. So I have no idea 373 00:22:28,080 --> 00:22:30,560 Speaker 1: what to expect this quota. What are we getting? That's 374 00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:34,520 Speaker 1: why you read our stuff? So, um, why did that happen? Right? 375 00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:37,000 Speaker 1: Because we had a conference it was second week in December. 376 00:22:37,560 --> 00:22:39,920 Speaker 1: Message was somewhere you know, trading revenues are going to 377 00:22:40,000 --> 00:22:43,320 Speaker 1: be flat to plus, you know, maybe mid single digits. 378 00:22:43,640 --> 00:22:45,600 Speaker 1: And then towards the end of the month you heard 379 00:22:45,640 --> 00:22:47,560 Speaker 1: from I think it was b of a right, Brian 380 00:22:47,560 --> 00:22:50,080 Speaker 1: Wayne hen CEO coming out and saying, hey, you know 381 00:22:50,080 --> 00:22:51,800 Speaker 1: it's gonna be a little bit lower, it's gonna be 382 00:22:51,840 --> 00:22:54,240 Speaker 1: sub zero. You know it's going to be negative. And 383 00:22:54,880 --> 00:22:57,680 Speaker 1: does that surprise any of us really? Because we had 384 00:22:57,800 --> 00:23:01,560 Speaker 1: such a market pullback, especially with bonds breads widening a 385 00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:03,960 Speaker 1: lot the last couple of weeks in December. You guys 386 00:23:03,960 --> 00:23:07,480 Speaker 1: know that, right, I mean we would paying attention, Yeah, attention. 387 00:23:07,520 --> 00:23:09,560 Speaker 1: So you've got if you've got exposure to high yield, 388 00:23:09,600 --> 00:23:12,760 Speaker 1: if you've got exposure to leverage, finance revenues are probably 389 00:23:12,760 --> 00:23:15,680 Speaker 1: coming in lower capital markets. Is going to be difficult. 390 00:23:16,119 --> 00:23:18,160 Speaker 1: What are the positive signs, what are the green lights 391 00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:20,560 Speaker 1: to say buy bank stocks that come from this? And Okay, 392 00:23:20,720 --> 00:23:23,720 Speaker 1: so part of what you know we're doing here is 393 00:23:23,760 --> 00:23:25,840 Speaker 1: we've got a four queue that's in the rear view 394 00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:28,119 Speaker 1: mirror and it's stock analysts. We want to look forward. 395 00:23:28,640 --> 00:23:31,520 Speaker 1: So the rear view mirror is showing that it was 396 00:23:31,560 --> 00:23:34,560 Speaker 1: a tough quarter. Four Q is a tough quarter because 397 00:23:34,600 --> 00:23:37,840 Speaker 1: you had so much market this location, I mean, was 398 00:23:37,880 --> 00:23:40,080 Speaker 1: the last time we had a quarter with SMP down. 399 00:23:41,160 --> 00:23:45,720 Speaker 1: It's been a while, right, So looking forward, we've got 400 00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:50,200 Speaker 1: loan growth flashing positive, the hight fed data right comes 401 00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:52,119 Speaker 1: out weekly see and I long growth five percent up 402 00:23:52,119 --> 00:23:54,720 Speaker 1: here on your good morning everyone for Global Wall Street, 403 00:23:54,760 --> 00:23:57,280 Speaker 1: Betsy Gray sick with us with Morgan Stanley, your colleague, 404 00:23:57,280 --> 00:24:00,919 Speaker 1: and cry Magdalena Slosa does deuts your bad right correct? 405 00:24:00,960 --> 00:24:03,360 Speaker 1: And they got a bonus issue And in all that, 406 00:24:03,560 --> 00:24:06,240 Speaker 1: how are the bonuses going to be for American Global 407 00:24:06,280 --> 00:24:08,639 Speaker 1: Wall Street? Are they gonna do a Deutsche Bank. Are 408 00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:10,520 Speaker 1: they gonna be okay? Are they going to be light? 409 00:24:10,680 --> 00:24:12,679 Speaker 1: Are they gonna be a lot of bodies moving around? 410 00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:16,840 Speaker 1: You know, I'm not running comp at these companies, but 411 00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:20,800 Speaker 1: what I can tell you is in our models, UM, 412 00:24:20,960 --> 00:24:24,840 Speaker 1: we do have comp ratios coming down slightly, okay, year 413 00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:27,359 Speaker 1: on here, but that's but that's been happening one to 414 00:24:27,560 --> 00:24:31,640 Speaker 1: three q right, so you've had uh comp ratios coming down, 415 00:24:31,640 --> 00:24:34,920 Speaker 1: But that's and it's it's really reflecting management discipline here 416 00:24:35,440 --> 00:24:39,320 Speaker 1: to continue to drive towards target r o s. You know, 417 00:24:39,359 --> 00:24:42,520 Speaker 1: in the US, the companies that I cover obviously, you know, 418 00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:46,200 Speaker 1: be of JP City, we've got we've got three quarters 419 00:24:46,320 --> 00:24:50,119 Speaker 1: of you know, one to three q U eighteen very strong, 420 00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:56,320 Speaker 1: four q weaker. But you know, compools we're expecting UM 421 00:24:56,359 --> 00:24:58,680 Speaker 1: are going to trending line with with with what we 422 00:24:58,720 --> 00:25:01,120 Speaker 1: saw the first three quarters of the year. Do they 423 00:25:01,480 --> 00:25:06,480 Speaker 1: within camp and discipline, do they take apart divisions or 424 00:25:06,600 --> 00:25:10,800 Speaker 1: sell divisions off or stop doing things in divisions or 425 00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:14,119 Speaker 1: is it going to be labor rationalizations twenty at a 426 00:25:14,200 --> 00:25:17,679 Speaker 1: time here, ten at a time here, which which expense 427 00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:21,320 Speaker 1: discipline model? Are they going to use? Okay, So can 428 00:25:21,359 --> 00:25:23,240 Speaker 1: I like frame this a little bit You're what you're 429 00:25:23,240 --> 00:25:25,560 Speaker 1: basically saying, frame means say it better than I just 430 00:25:25,600 --> 00:25:31,560 Speaker 1: did basically what she's about today. Well, oh you agree, right, 431 00:25:31,960 --> 00:25:34,320 Speaker 1: I'm going to use that line so many times over 432 00:25:34,359 --> 00:25:37,080 Speaker 1: the next couple of weeks. Can I just frame this 433 00:25:37,119 --> 00:25:38,920 Speaker 1: a little bit better? Can you frame it a little 434 00:25:38,920 --> 00:25:41,680 Speaker 1: bit better? For us? Well? What you what you're really 435 00:25:41,760 --> 00:25:46,119 Speaker 1: asking is was the market dislocation so tough in December 436 00:25:46,160 --> 00:25:48,440 Speaker 1: that managements are going to have to do something different 437 00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:52,000 Speaker 1: from having been expecting to run their business the first 438 00:25:52,040 --> 00:25:56,040 Speaker 1: part of the year, and in in the US in 439 00:25:56,080 --> 00:25:59,720 Speaker 1: my group, you know, I don't I believe the answer. 440 00:25:59,720 --> 00:26:02,239 Speaker 1: There's know, I think you're gonna have tweaking. You're not 441 00:26:02,280 --> 00:26:04,760 Speaker 1: going to have you know, wholesale change. So let's talk 442 00:26:04,800 --> 00:26:07,119 Speaker 1: about the capital return programs. I'm going to catch up 443 00:26:07,160 --> 00:26:10,000 Speaker 1: with an analyst from Oppenheimer who says the following, we 444 00:26:10,080 --> 00:26:12,879 Speaker 1: haven't changed our dollar buy back assumptions, but with the 445 00:26:12,920 --> 00:26:15,359 Speaker 1: recent price declines, we expect banks to be able to 446 00:26:15,400 --> 00:26:21,480 Speaker 1: retire around six percent of their shares in How significant 447 00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:24,359 Speaker 1: of these capital return programs going to be? The buyback programs? 448 00:26:24,480 --> 00:26:27,000 Speaker 1: So from a stock perspective. You want to think about 449 00:26:27,040 --> 00:26:31,399 Speaker 1: where they're going to be increasing versus stabilizing. Right, and uh, 450 00:26:31,440 --> 00:26:33,800 Speaker 1: there's many banks that have been doing four or five 451 00:26:33,840 --> 00:26:37,440 Speaker 1: percent you know, buy backs for a couple of years now. 452 00:26:37,800 --> 00:26:40,040 Speaker 1: We do have a couple of companies where we're expecting 453 00:26:40,320 --> 00:26:44,480 Speaker 1: buybacks to increase, and that's you know, um Wells Fargo 454 00:26:44,520 --> 00:26:48,640 Speaker 1: for example, State Street right. State Street had to had 455 00:26:48,680 --> 00:26:51,399 Speaker 1: to stop their buy back program for the last two 456 00:26:51,520 --> 00:26:54,320 Speaker 1: quarters of the year due to the c r D acquisition. 457 00:26:54,480 --> 00:26:56,160 Speaker 1: So there's a couple of places where we think they're 458 00:26:56,160 --> 00:27:01,280 Speaker 1: going to see acceleration. But that's that doesn't surprise me. 459 00:27:01,359 --> 00:27:04,680 Speaker 1: And and and Betsy Jargon. What does tech spend mean? 460 00:27:04,880 --> 00:27:08,520 Speaker 1: You're hugely optimistic view on JP Morgan. They're gonna open 461 00:27:08,560 --> 00:27:12,320 Speaker 1: forned branches, fifty new markets. I just want an a 462 00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:14,280 Speaker 1: t M up where I live. I mean, you know, 463 00:27:14,800 --> 00:27:17,600 Speaker 1: from from name the bank. I don't care. But but 464 00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:22,560 Speaker 1: what does the phrase text spend mean? Okay, um, text bend. 465 00:27:23,080 --> 00:27:29,040 Speaker 1: It basically means okay, Well, here's what I want to say. 466 00:27:29,280 --> 00:27:34,119 Speaker 1: You've got spending on tech plant, equipment, computers and software. 467 00:27:34,280 --> 00:27:36,639 Speaker 1: You've got tex spend on people who are actually writing 468 00:27:36,640 --> 00:27:41,159 Speaker 1: the code. You've got tex spend on, um, folks that 469 00:27:41,240 --> 00:27:44,760 Speaker 1: are designing what your next ten years is going to 470 00:27:44,840 --> 00:27:48,480 Speaker 1: look like. Right, so you asked the question away, Um, 471 00:27:48,520 --> 00:27:50,880 Speaker 1: that's a really good way because there's plenty of people 472 00:27:50,880 --> 00:27:52,879 Speaker 1: who say, look, my tex spend is different from yours 473 00:27:52,880 --> 00:27:55,640 Speaker 1: because I'm only taking hardware and software and you're taking 474 00:27:55,640 --> 00:28:00,000 Speaker 1: in all the strategy folks too. The important message about 475 00:28:00,000 --> 00:28:04,280 Speaker 1: out text Spend, in my opinion, is that this is 476 00:28:04,440 --> 00:28:09,480 Speaker 1: a business that will continue to migrate towards UH speed. 477 00:28:09,640 --> 00:28:12,880 Speaker 1: Right now. We've seen this in plenty of markets already 478 00:28:12,880 --> 00:28:15,560 Speaker 1: that the banks are involved in equity trading, for example, 479 00:28:16,320 --> 00:28:22,080 Speaker 1: but the need to have a super efficient plant took 480 00:28:22,520 --> 00:28:25,919 Speaker 1: communicate with your conce How did the little guys compete 481 00:28:26,000 --> 00:28:30,560 Speaker 1: with this? How do the shared platform? Shared platform? I 482 00:28:30,600 --> 00:28:33,080 Speaker 1: mean this is you know there are third parties that 483 00:28:33,160 --> 00:28:36,080 Speaker 1: you can amortize your costs over by sharing the platform 484 00:28:36,119 --> 00:28:38,080 Speaker 1: with others. Did I frame that? Okay? John did a 485 00:28:38,160 --> 00:28:42,040 Speaker 1: decent chop. I think it's got to decide whether I 486 00:28:42,080 --> 00:28:44,560 Speaker 1: honestly do and if we haven't want a third anchor, 487 00:28:45,320 --> 00:28:48,400 Speaker 1: I would push Betsy. Could that person? I think? I think, 488 00:28:48,800 --> 00:28:50,720 Speaker 1: I think, I think I could have a lot of 489 00:28:50,760 --> 00:28:59,560 Speaker 1: fun with you every morning you think so, Betsy, Thank you, 490 00:29:00,160 --> 00:29:07,320 Speaker 1: m Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe 491 00:29:07,440 --> 00:29:12,280 Speaker 1: and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever 492 00:29:12,440 --> 00:29:16,479 Speaker 1: podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keene 493 00:29:16,920 --> 00:29:20,600 Speaker 1: before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide. I'm 494 00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:21,520 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio