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Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Melman. I will be joined in a

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Speaker 1: second by my bff, my compadre, my companion, professional better,

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Speaker 1: Simon Hunter, and he provided some professional lessons this past week,

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Speaker 1: our first Tuesday pod of the season. I got to

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Speaker 1: imagine if anybody listen to this pod, it was profitable

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Speaker 1: for them, because we're going to run through a lot

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Speaker 1: of different things, and I will delineate ways in which

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Speaker 1: it should have been profitable, and Simon and I will

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Speaker 1: briefly review that before we dig into our handicaps for

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Speaker 1: everything and go game on the board, whether it's a side,

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Speaker 1: whether it's a total, whether it's a money line. Reminder

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Speaker 1: for people who are new to The Favorites, my name

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Speaker 1: is Chad Moman, the chief condes content officer for the

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Speaker 1: Action Network. We've been around for about three and a

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Speaker 1: half years. We focus entirely on serving the sports betting community,

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Speaker 1: information analysis research. We've got an award winning app that's

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Speaker 1: free if you download it. It's called the Action Network App.

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Speaker 1: You can track your picks in there. I used to

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Speaker 1: be at ESPN. I had a podcast there for a

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Speaker 1: long time. Brought it over the Action Network when we launched.

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Speaker 1: We are fully focused on the sports betting community, which

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Speaker 1: is why Colin Cowherd wanted us to join the Volume

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Speaker 1: podcast network. On this podcast, we will go over every game.

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Speaker 1: Like I said, we will give you our Fox whole bet.

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Speaker 1: We're all gonna jump in this one together. Sometimes it works,

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Speaker 1: sometimes it doesn't. We're going to give you our Simon

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Speaker 1: says bet. Simon says it, just bet it. Thursday, we

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Speaker 1: will do some Survivor. We will narrow down the board

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Speaker 1: based on lines that have moved and choose five games

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Speaker 1: that we like the most. Reminder Me and Colin review

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Speaker 1: all this from his side of the perspective on Friday.

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Speaker 1: We have a show called Convinced Me that we do

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Speaker 1: it at Action Network HQ on Sundays, in which we

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Speaker 1: do our final takedown of the board at eleven am

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Speaker 1: Eastern before the game's kick off. A lot to get

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Speaker 1: through their Simon, how you feeling, buddy, and I want

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Speaker 1: to say thank you. Anyone's still listening to the show.

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Speaker 1: That will be the most Chad will talk in a

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Speaker 1: row for the remainder of the show. I promise you

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Speaker 1: good chat. How you doing, Buddy? You know sometimes your

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Speaker 1: British wit comes out and it's hurtful. Well, I just

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Speaker 1: want to start up by saying in someone sitting in

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Speaker 1: this room right down their favorite team is leading the

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Speaker 1: division at one and now, and that is the Philadelphia Eagles.

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Speaker 1: Another one of us team is tied for the lead

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Speaker 1: in their division without even a single win. That's Chad

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Speaker 1: with the Chicago Bears. And we have another team here

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Speaker 1: in the Buffalo Bills, who are tied for last place

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Speaker 1: in their division. So Chad, a lot of things are

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Speaker 1: changing and moving fast here in football season. No Joe

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Speaker 1: producer Matt Mitchell loves the Buffalo Bills. I of course

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Speaker 1: love the Bears. You love the Eagles. Uh. I thought

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Speaker 1: this weekend was fascinating and and we're gonna go through

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Speaker 1: every game and we'll do sort of our good cap

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Speaker 1: bad cap routine instead of good cap back coup, good

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Speaker 1: cap back cap, because look a lot of times you

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Speaker 1: get it right and you still don't win. Even though

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Speaker 1: I have often said the right side is the winning side.

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Speaker 1: Um For example, that Arizona Tennessee game, we like the

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Speaker 1: over fifty one and a half. It landed at fifty

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Speaker 1: one with three minutes left, in the third quarter and

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Speaker 1: no one scored again the rest of the game. Uh,

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Speaker 1: sometimes you get it wrong, like the Packers. We got

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Speaker 1: that one wrong. And sometimes you just get it right,

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Speaker 1: like the Texans or the Texans on the money line,

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Speaker 1: or the Steelers on the money line, or the Raiders

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Speaker 1: on the money line. And hopefully, as we discussed in

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Speaker 1: this show last Tuesday and reiterated on Thursday, you tie

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Speaker 1: some money line parlays together and you put the Raiders

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Speaker 1: and the Steelers together, and the Raiders and the Texans together,

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Speaker 1: and the Texans and the Steelers together. We also had

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Speaker 1: the Lions in there, so that one didn't work out. Um,

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Speaker 1: but that's when you cash. Yeah, that was again. It's

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Speaker 1: it's week one. That's why it's the best week. It's

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Speaker 1: the overreact week. It's the most fun for talking points.

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Speaker 1: But I'm gonna try to keep it cool, keep my head, uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, not so far in the clouds, because it's

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Speaker 1: one of these things where I don't want to listen

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Speaker 1: to the noise. But there are some things we have

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Speaker 1: to talk about and you have to take notice of.

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Speaker 1: And that's where it's it's there's some stuff you're gonna

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Speaker 1: fade because week one is just such a throughout week,

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Speaker 1: there's some stuff that we're gonna look back on and

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Speaker 1: be like, Okay, that was a sign like this team

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Speaker 1: they're either for real or this team's complete seasons in

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Speaker 1: the tanker. This is just an awful team. So it's

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Speaker 1: really fun the next couple of weeks where it's just

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Speaker 1: adding information to everyone's model, so the sharps get better

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Speaker 1: and the sports books get smarter. But twelve and four,

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Speaker 1: I think it was the underdogs covered and it was

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Speaker 1: nine and seven. I believe one outright. That's historical chat.

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Speaker 1: So I'm pretty pissed that I kind of blew it

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Speaker 1: for us and we went two and three in the contest.

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Speaker 1: But hey, at least are fans. They listened to the show,

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Speaker 1: they took some money lines with us, and it was

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Speaker 1: a profitable week for most of us. So I'm hoping

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Speaker 1: I can be better for you this week in the

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Speaker 1: contest because that that was pretty much, uh, the only

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Speaker 1: letdown of the weekend. Well, look, there's a lot of

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Speaker 1: lessons we can take away from that, and one is

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Speaker 1: getting out of our own head, and we did this

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Speaker 1: last season two. We ended up finishing and winning a

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Speaker 1: lot of money, but um two game difference we would

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Speaker 1: have like right exactly, And so the difference is you

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Speaker 1: gotta sort of stay focused on what your principles are,

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Speaker 1: and I think you know when it comes down to

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Speaker 1: making our five best picks, which we'll talk a little

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Speaker 1: bit more on Thursday and then defining those even more

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Speaker 1: on Sunday morning, we'll get into that and sort of

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Speaker 1: try to try to get out of our own heads.

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Speaker 1: Let's get right to the game. Though. We know that

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Speaker 1: so many people they just want to get to the

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Speaker 1: game that they are most interested in. So we've got

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Speaker 1: a special treat our voiceover specialist Tina. She's just going

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Speaker 1: to tee up the games for us. We will put

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Speaker 1: it in the time code. Put the time code in

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Speaker 1: the description of the podcast. That way you can fast

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Speaker 1: forward to directly what you want. All right, It's week two,

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Speaker 1: Thursday Night Football, New York Giants at Washington Football Team.

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Speaker 1: The New York Football Giants who look terrible against the

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Speaker 1: Denver Broncos, a team that you on it to bet,

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Speaker 1: a team that I did not want to bet. That

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Speaker 1: was a bad choice on my part. On the road

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Speaker 1: of the foot Washington football team on Thursday Night it

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Speaker 1: looks like they're about three and a half point underdogs

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Speaker 1: on the road um, majority of the bets, majority of

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Speaker 1: the money coming in on the Giants. The total looks

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Speaker 1: like it's very low, about forty and a half. Um.

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Speaker 1: What say you here, Simon? What are we thinking? And

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Speaker 1: I'll save you for Thursday. But I did tell Chad

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Speaker 1: the last thing I said that it was I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: give you so much ship for not let me put

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Speaker 1: Denver in our contest, because that, to me was the

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Speaker 1: best bet of the weekend. It just felt like that

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Speaker 1: is a fucking lie. By the way, no, no, no, no,

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Speaker 1: I'm not gonna say that. I that I didn't want

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Speaker 1: that I wanted to not take Denver was not on

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Speaker 1: the side of Denver. But I will tell you you

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Speaker 1: never once said this is my favorite bet. You never

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Speaker 1: never said, not once did you ever say that if

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Speaker 1: you had said to me, this is my favorite bet.

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Speaker 1: Do you think I'm ever not gonna go with it?

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Speaker 1: I think my exact words, I'm gonna give you so

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Speaker 1: much ship for not let me put Denver in the

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Speaker 1: That is, by the way, I'm willing to take the ship.

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Speaker 1: I'm not willing to accept the fact that you said

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Speaker 1: it was your fact. That's that's the new Jersey way

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Speaker 1: of saying this is my favorite bet. But I'm sorry.

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Speaker 1: I'll be more clear next time, but try to use

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Speaker 1: the fucking language. This is costing his money. That's on

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Speaker 1: the that's on the Uh. Yeah, this game, man, is ugly.

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Speaker 1: We're heartbroker now because Washington I liked that last week

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Speaker 1: and again fits when down. I know people think there's

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Speaker 1: not that big of a difference. Seame Haneke Fitches took

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Speaker 1: first team reps all of the preseason. That's that's a

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Speaker 1: big deal. So Heineke wasn't prepared. I thought he played

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Speaker 1: well coming in cold, and you know he kept him

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Speaker 1: in that game. But it was because I thought that

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Speaker 1: was such a trap game for the Chargers. I mean

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Speaker 1: they literally Herbert had that red zone turnover and I

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Speaker 1: was like, okay, me and Chad are gonna sneak one

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Speaker 1: out here. And then I mean literally the next play

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Speaker 1: gives it fumbled. So hurt that hurt football arts. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's good to be back. So looking at this game,

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Speaker 1: this just feels like a classic divisional game where you

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Speaker 1: take the three and a half of the Giants. I

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Speaker 1: know they looked horrible in their game against Denver. We

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Speaker 1: talked about that was kind of like a setup where

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Speaker 1: the Giants have been at other pieces. There s Quan still,

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Speaker 1: no one really knows what's going on Galaday. That offensive

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Speaker 1: line is horrible. I get it. Everyone here in this

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Speaker 1: game is gonna be terrified and you're not gonna want

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Speaker 1: to take the Giants. But just the fact that this

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Speaker 1: divisional game, both these teams are gonna know each other

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Speaker 1: very well. You can just go through like their past

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Speaker 1: games the last couple of years, Daniel Jones isn't as

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Speaker 1: bad as you showed in that Denver game. He is bad,

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Speaker 1: but I mean that was he was atrocious against Denver.

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Speaker 1: Um literally scored a touchdown with zero times, like zero

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Speaker 1: time left on the clock. To make it look like

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Speaker 1: they scored thirteen points in that game. They did it.

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Speaker 1: They scored seven. That was a horrible game. So, just

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Speaker 1: looking from the Matt standpoint, I'll be taking the Giants

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Speaker 1: zero chance. We put this into our contest. I hate

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Speaker 1: this game, so I'm gonna bet the Giants. I'll bet

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Speaker 1: the under and I might watch it for ten minutes.

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Speaker 1: Here's one thing I like about this. The Giants of

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Speaker 1: plus three and a half. These divisional games on Thursday

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Speaker 1: nights are always so ugly and so close, So I

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Speaker 1: think I agree with you, and also my instinct one

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Speaker 1: this is if you want to sort of play against

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Speaker 1: the overreaction, you play against the Giants over reaction because

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Speaker 1: they were so bad, and I do think people still

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Speaker 1: we'll give the Washington football team the benefit of the

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Speaker 1: doubt and say, all right, they had that game, it

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Speaker 1: was close, they lost their quarterback, still played tight. They

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Speaker 1: will be the side that I want to bet on.

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Speaker 1: So I'm with you. I go with the Giants. I

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Speaker 1: don't want to touch this as one of our five best,

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Speaker 1: But what about the total of forty and a half? Again,

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Speaker 1: I'll probably end up taking the under, but I know

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Speaker 1: this will go over somehow. Both these guys are going

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Speaker 1: to be so sloppy at the football. But I just

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Speaker 1: can't trust you that these offenses like usually this. I

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Speaker 1: think it's I'm pretty sure it leans towards you over

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Speaker 1: these early weeks on the Thursdays because of the short week,

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Speaker 1: where it actually is a bigger effect on the defense,

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Speaker 1: and it does on the offense um. But for me,

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Speaker 1: I can't I can't take this over. I just cannot

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Speaker 1: do it. Um, even though I get I get it.

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Speaker 1: This is a sneaky over just because it's Thursday night,

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Speaker 1: but I just can't do it. That is a dreadfully

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Speaker 1: low total at forty and a half. And last week

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Speaker 1: we had the Giants at the lowest total on the board. Uh,

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Speaker 1: it closed at forty two. It closed at forty one

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Speaker 1: and a half. It was sneaky at the end, it

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Speaker 1: got nerve acking, but it just made it. Yeah, just

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Speaker 1: made it. Uh. They were against last week the Denver

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Speaker 1: Broncos Teddy Covers. The guy just covers. And by the way,

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Speaker 1: I even think, I said in the podcast last Tuesday

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Speaker 1: Teddy Covers, how do we not want to be on

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Speaker 1: the Teddy cover side? You might have talked me out

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Speaker 1: of it. If I want to do a little revision

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Speaker 1: of history, just remember this is classic narcissist chat. New

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Speaker 1: York Times bestseller Chad Melman wrote a book. You were like,

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Speaker 1: we don't take road favorites when a home dog is

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Speaker 1: getting this amount of the money in this smoutter presential,

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Speaker 1: I said, Chad, sometimes the public wins. That's the quote unquote.

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Speaker 1: You know what you might I'm here for you, buddy. Wow,

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Speaker 1: that is that is remarkable, recall, and no one is

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Speaker 1: better at calling me out as a narcissist than you,

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Speaker 1: except for maybe my wife. It's like crazy, how quickly

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Speaker 1: you were able to glean the core of who I

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Speaker 1: am when I am so good at generally hiding it.

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Speaker 1: The thing how much we talk, me, you and Matt Mitchell,

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Speaker 1: we're talking constantly. It's it's you just get to know

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Speaker 1: people like that, Chad. The more you talk, more little

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Speaker 1: things you realize, Like I realized within ten minutes to

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Speaker 1: me and Matt Mitchell, if our airplane crash and we

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Speaker 1: were on a boat together, he would he would knock

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Speaker 1: me on, eating me within six hours, even if he

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Speaker 1: was full. You would you would just kill me right away,

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Speaker 1: because that's just Nat Mitchell. So these are kind of

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Speaker 1: things I learned about people right away. I do think

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Speaker 1: that better than bookmaker are as good as anybody in

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Speaker 1: the world at understanding and discerning personalities and group psychology.

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Speaker 1: That's all bookmakers do is group psychology. Right Everything we're

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Speaker 1: talking about is what does the public think, How is

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Speaker 1: the number going to be shaded? How are they going

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Speaker 1: to take advantage of people who are overreacting this whole week.

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Speaker 1: Week two is like the the pinnacle of group psychology

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Speaker 1: for bookmakers, and so I am not surprised at all.

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Speaker 1: Your ability to identify, you know, people in their basic

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Speaker 1: insecurities or personality traits. You're a gift. You're a gift

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Speaker 1: to all of us. Signment Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars.

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Speaker 1: The Broncos right now our six point favorites on the road.

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Speaker 1: This game open to two and a half. It's moved

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Speaker 1: up to six. Seventy of the bets coming in on

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Speaker 1: the Broncos, seventy one cent of the money coming in

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Speaker 1: on the Broncos. Dude, take the Jaguars. No, I hate

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Speaker 1: this so much, but this is one of my favorite games.

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Speaker 1: I had this set three and a half. It's alway

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Speaker 1: up to six six and a half. At certain books,

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Speaker 1: we're doing a chat holding our nose. This is one

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Speaker 1: of these things. Were probably gonn end up taking the Jags,

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Speaker 1: and I'm probably gonna convince myself take the moneyline, but

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Speaker 1: I just can't do it right now. On Tuesday because

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Speaker 1: Urban Myers, man, that was embarrassing how bad they were

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Speaker 1: against Houston. I thought Houston was gonna win, but I

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Speaker 1: thought it was gonna be a lot closer because Houston

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Speaker 1: is awful. Another thing I loved about that game was

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Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence looked all right, like the way he threw

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Speaker 1: the ball and things like that. His decision making was terrible.

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Speaker 1: But to get hyped that he threw for three yards

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Speaker 1: and three touchdowns against the Houston Texans' is a weird tick. Okay,

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Speaker 1: I think we all know Houston Texans are terrible. So

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Speaker 1: just looking at this game, this is pure numbers and value.

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Speaker 1: This is a three point game. I'm gonna take the

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Speaker 1: three and a half. I expect the Jaguars offense to

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Speaker 1: be much better than the Giants offense was. So, you know,

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Speaker 1: back to back road games for Denver to start the

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Speaker 1: season off, that's that's tough for them. That's a that's

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Speaker 1: a bad spot to be in. It's a little scary

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Speaker 1: with Teddy covers on the road. Uh he covers on

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Speaker 1: the road. Number of base value six six and a

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Speaker 1: half of the Jaguars, just like Pittsburgh last week. You

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Speaker 1: have to take it if it's off by three points.

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Speaker 1: So we'll definitely be on the Jaguars. Yeah, it's super ugly.

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Speaker 1: But this is this is the difference between professional betting

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Speaker 1: and amateur betting. You make bad you make decisions on

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Speaker 1: bad games, and this is how you sort of increase

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Speaker 1: your bankroll. This is how you improve your r o I.

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Speaker 1: It's if we saw we just saw underdogs going twelve

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Speaker 1: and four. We just saw nine of seven underdogs winning outright.

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Speaker 1: It's very hard to win on the road in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: It's very hard to win as a big favorite. Um

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Speaker 1: And we'll get to the Niners and we'll talk about

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Speaker 1: the Lions when we get to that. But you gotta

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Speaker 1: hold your nose. You gotta bet the Jags. You gotta

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Speaker 1: think this number is gonna go up, so you probably

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Speaker 1: just hold on and wait, I mean the sharps are

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Speaker 1: gonna come in on it. Well, we've just seen it

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Speaker 1: time and time again. The public. Yeah, this is only

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Speaker 1: the things we talked all off season about. All my

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Speaker 1: favorite things about the legalization of sports gambling is the

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Speaker 1: public coming in so heavy on different sides that it

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Speaker 1: bumps up the number, It bumps up the money line

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Speaker 1: on these underdogs. That's why we just saw something historical

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Speaker 1: last week. It's because the public is all gambling like

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Speaker 1: guys who never even gambling their entire lives, you know,

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Speaker 1: in their fifties and sixties, their sports betting now from

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Speaker 1: their couch, and they're moving lines because they've been thousands

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Speaker 1: of dollars, so they're pro I'm trying to take advantage

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Speaker 1: of these big spreads. Nothing wrong with guys in the

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Speaker 1: fifties and sixties betting, by the way, No, I love

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Speaker 1: those people. The total on this game is forty five,

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Speaker 1: and actually forty five and a half. It's gone up. Um.

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Speaker 1: Here's what's interesting. I think there's a a on the

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Speaker 1: over as well, for a little bit of the reason

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Speaker 1: we're talking about huge overreaction to the market. Eighty nine

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Speaker 1: percent of the money is coming in on the under.

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Speaker 1: The majority of tickets money usually indicates professionals, which is

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Speaker 1: weird to me that so much more money is coming

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Speaker 1: in than tickets. That's interesting there on the under. I

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Speaker 1: would honestly like the over here too. This is just

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Speaker 1: one of these things where I could just see denvery

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Speaker 1: be able to put points up on this terrible Jags defense.

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Speaker 1: And again the Jags, I think they have playmakers. I'll

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Speaker 1: bet to put up points on this Dever's defense. Dever's

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Speaker 1: defenses are gonna beat every team into the ground with

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Speaker 1: this defense that they're gonna have down weeks, and it

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Speaker 1: just seems like a really bad matchup for them this week. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I agree, I feel completely agree. And this is why

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Speaker 1: overreaction week is so interesting. Like the fact that that

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Speaker 1: this is a low total and a high spread makes

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Speaker 1: me feel like too many people are buying into the

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Speaker 1: Broncos and too many people are seeing what happened with

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Speaker 1: the Jags and the Texans and it's the polar us.

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Speaker 1: It's that it's really more likely the middle is what's

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Speaker 1: likely going to happen. Next game up, Houston Texans at

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Speaker 1: Cleveland Browns. The Texans twelve and a half point underdogs.

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Speaker 1: Right now, everything pointing to the Browns. Bets on the Browns,

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Speaker 1: money on the Browns. Quick take, quick take so far.

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Speaker 1: By the way, this is our third game. Nothing feels

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Speaker 1: like a five favorite to me. Um, nothing feels like

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Speaker 1: a signment says certainly, don't feel like a foxhole on

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Speaker 1: this one. What do you got? I actually thought this

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Speaker 1: would be a foxhol with you, Chad, because it feels

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Speaker 1: like we're me the only professional is that gonna just

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Speaker 1: tell people to take the Browns. All right, Well, listen,

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Speaker 1: I'm glad you said that, because that's the side I

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Speaker 1: would want. But I was actually nervous to say it

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Speaker 1: because it felt so square to take a nearly two

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Speaker 1: touchdown favorite. But I think are gonna kill him. This

356
00:19:01,359 --> 00:19:04,119
Speaker 1: is the time it's square. It's definitely square. And this

357
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Speaker 1: is where we've been burned by Baker. I mean we

358
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Speaker 1: actually on the other side of it. When I think

359
00:19:08,560 --> 00:19:11,480
Speaker 1: it was Chubb stepped out of bounce at the two

360
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Speaker 1: yard line so they didn't cover. I think we're on

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Speaker 1: the other side of that when we got lucky with it. Uh,

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Speaker 1: the Browns love to get back door. They love to

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Speaker 1: get back door. Um that we later just saw with

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs. But that was Patrick my homes So it

365
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Speaker 1: doesn't make me as scared. It's Tyrod Taylor that was

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Speaker 1: gonna be down big and having to be coming back.

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Speaker 1: But I had this at thirteen and a half, So

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Speaker 1: twelve and a half eleven and a half, where it

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Speaker 1: keeps fluctuating, that's good value to me. As long it's

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Speaker 1: under two touchdowns, I like it. Um, it'll be scaring,

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Speaker 1: We're gonna we probably end up having this one of

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Speaker 1: the contest because, like I always tell Chat, I like

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Speaker 1: having one or two favorites in the contest. Man, Like

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Speaker 1: you just said, this is so chalky. It is so chalky.

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Speaker 1: But it's situation where Houston had a huge win at

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Speaker 1: home in a divisional game. Now they're going on the road.

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Speaker 1: They're feeling pretty good with a rookie head co coach

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Speaker 1: putting against the Browns two. I think they showed be

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Speaker 1: something in that game against the Chiefs. I mean they

380
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Speaker 1: really did. Again, Baker did typical Baker. Think Baker plays

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Speaker 1: a great game and that hasn't meltdown in the most

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Speaker 1: important moment of the game. And I just want to

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Speaker 1: be too hard on Baker, but this is what he

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Speaker 1: keeps doing. Like that three and out he had in

385
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Speaker 1: the playoffs last year and Chad Henny was playing for

386
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Speaker 1: the Chiefs, that it's gonna haunt him forever that like

387
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Speaker 1: all he had to do was not go three and out,

388
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Speaker 1: get a drive going, and they were gonna beat the Chiefs.

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Speaker 1: But I have to believe in the coaching staff of Cleveland.

390
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Speaker 1: I have to believe in that Cleveland defense that let's

391
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Speaker 1: face it, they shut down to Kansas City for about

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Speaker 1: two and a half quarters. They they looked really good

393
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Speaker 1: against Chiefs. So people are gonna overreact. They're gonna take

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Speaker 1: Houston because of that win last week. I think we're

395
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Speaker 1: gonna be able to get a good number on the

396
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Speaker 1: brown just because the Browns lost that heartbreaking one game

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Speaker 1: last week. That's a huge number to think about. Is

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Speaker 1: one of our five faves. Yeah, it's it's tough for

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Speaker 1: our five. It's it's a big number. It's big. That's

400
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Speaker 1: why I like it, though I do love I love it.

401
00:20:59,400 --> 00:21:01,960
Speaker 1: As a play I I might want to play it

402
00:21:02,040 --> 00:21:04,040
Speaker 1: right now. You said it's fluctuating twelve and a half

403
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Speaker 1: thirteen and a half or twelve and a half, eleven

404
00:21:05,640 --> 00:21:07,560
Speaker 1: and a half, twelve and a half, eleven and a half.

405
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Speaker 1: I had a thirteen and a half of my ranks,

406
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Speaker 1: and so it feels like if it's going to do

407
00:21:12,480 --> 00:21:15,679
Speaker 1: anything at this point, which is Tuesday afternoon, it feels

408
00:21:15,680 --> 00:21:17,239
Speaker 1: like it's going to go up, not down. So if

409
00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:20,320
Speaker 1: you want it, now is the time to get it.

410
00:21:20,320 --> 00:21:23,320
Speaker 1: It's fair, I would say it's fair. It's it's one

411
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Speaker 1: of these things that I do think professionals are coming

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Speaker 1: to the Texans, like Brandon Cooks look pretty good for them,

413
00:21:27,480 --> 00:21:29,240
Speaker 1: and it just seems like they could move the ball.

414
00:21:29,960 --> 00:21:31,800
Speaker 1: But again, I think people are going to realize the

415
00:21:31,840 --> 00:21:34,840
Speaker 1: Jaguars defense is terrible, especially compared to this Brown's defense.

416
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Speaker 1: The totals at about forty seven and a half. I

417
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Speaker 1: would take the over. Both these teams have guys that

418
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Speaker 1: can make plays in the score. Next game, Buffalo Bills

419
00:21:47,240 --> 00:21:54,280
Speaker 1: at Miami Dolphins. Bills visiting the Miami Dolphins. Oh, this

420
00:21:54,400 --> 00:21:57,920
Speaker 1: is a good one. This is such a good one.

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Speaker 1: It looks like the Bill are three and a half

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00:22:01,560 --> 00:22:06,399
Speaker 1: point road favorites. The Bills at this point in time

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Speaker 1: getting seventies six percent of the tickets. Man man to

424
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Speaker 1: will look terrible. I don't know how anybody can say

425
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Speaker 1: they keep buying into TWA. The Bills did exactly what

426
00:22:19,320 --> 00:22:21,879
Speaker 1: they thought we thought they would do. Josh Allen wouldn't

427
00:22:21,880 --> 00:22:24,920
Speaker 1: be as good. Their running game was pretty non existent.

428
00:22:24,920 --> 00:22:27,399
Speaker 1: They didn't even try to play the running game, to

429
00:22:27,480 --> 00:22:31,639
Speaker 1: be honest. The Steelers Ben looked like a savvy veteran

430
00:22:31,680 --> 00:22:33,600
Speaker 1: who when they needed a throw to be made, he

431
00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:36,399
Speaker 1: was making it. They played an exquisite game in the

432
00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:39,720
Speaker 1: second half. I like the Dolphins. I just love that

433
00:22:39,720 --> 00:22:41,879
Speaker 1: you poop pooed him going up to New England and

434
00:22:41,880 --> 00:22:45,120
Speaker 1: winning in Week one against Bill Belichick. By the way,

435
00:22:45,200 --> 00:22:47,000
Speaker 1: that's not that hard to do. I don't know what

436
00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:50,919
Speaker 1: you're talking about. You just said to it to it

437
00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:52,320
Speaker 1: didn't look that good in that game. I thought he

438
00:22:52,320 --> 00:22:55,160
Speaker 1: played good. He had won one or two really stupid decisions.

439
00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:59,200
Speaker 1: But again, he's a young quarterback. Yeah, like I still,

440
00:22:59,240 --> 00:23:00,960
Speaker 1: I have not seen any thing from him that makes

441
00:23:01,000 --> 00:23:02,640
Speaker 1: me think, oh, yeah, this is a guy who's gonna

442
00:23:02,680 --> 00:23:04,399
Speaker 1: be anything other than a game manager. I have not

443
00:23:04,480 --> 00:23:08,360
Speaker 1: seen anything that from him that shows me playmaking ability.

444
00:23:09,200 --> 00:23:13,679
Speaker 1: Um that interception at the end of the game. I

445
00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:21,400
Speaker 1: if that interception had cost us a win, Honest to god,

446
00:23:21,400 --> 00:23:25,960
Speaker 1: I may have driven to New Jersey h to explain

447
00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:30,040
Speaker 1: to you why I'm so against tah in a very

448
00:23:30,080 --> 00:23:32,560
Speaker 1: polite way, So you gotta be patient. I I didn't

449
00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:34,800
Speaker 1: even flinch, and I had done in that big Matt

450
00:23:34,920 --> 00:23:38,400
Speaker 1: Ryan Robin that I had, so the money line, that's

451
00:23:38,400 --> 00:23:40,600
Speaker 1: one of those things where it was a situation. We

452
00:23:40,640 --> 00:23:42,800
Speaker 1: talked about fading the rookies last week, and if we

453
00:23:42,960 --> 00:23:45,159
Speaker 1: just listened to ourselves, it would have been three and

454
00:23:45,200 --> 00:23:47,640
Speaker 1: out against the spread, and on the money line, so

455
00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:50,359
Speaker 1: I can see why people are coming on the bills.

456
00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:53,560
Speaker 1: Of course, like like you just said, too, wasn't that impressive.

457
00:23:53,600 --> 00:23:55,280
Speaker 1: It wasn't that great of a win to the public.

458
00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:58,719
Speaker 1: It's only seventeen to sixteen that they beat New England.

459
00:23:59,200 --> 00:24:01,879
Speaker 1: I can't deal with the bills. I can't do it.

460
00:24:02,000 --> 00:24:04,280
Speaker 1: I had this set three. So if it's three and

461
00:24:04,280 --> 00:24:05,840
Speaker 1: a half and it's gonna go, I think it's gonna

462
00:24:05,840 --> 00:24:08,160
Speaker 1: get the four. With my degree, I think it's gonna

463
00:24:08,240 --> 00:24:09,840
Speaker 1: keep moving up because I think the public will keep

464
00:24:09,880 --> 00:24:14,080
Speaker 1: throwing in the bills to every teaser, every money line parlay.

465
00:24:14,240 --> 00:24:15,960
Speaker 1: It just feels like the same thing. Last week we

466
00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:18,960
Speaker 1: stepped in it with Green Bay. It feels like that's

467
00:24:18,960 --> 00:24:22,480
Speaker 1: gonna have with the bills this week. It's like not

468
00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:25,080
Speaker 1: that I feel I think they're feeling the effects. But

469
00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:27,119
Speaker 1: I watched a lot of the press conference of these

470
00:24:27,200 --> 00:24:29,680
Speaker 1: guys after that lost the Dealers. They did not handle

471
00:24:29,680 --> 00:24:32,200
Speaker 1: that ship well. They're they were just like, man, people

472
00:24:32,200 --> 00:24:34,920
Speaker 1: are so freaking out, like the whole world's and in like,

473
00:24:34,920 --> 00:24:36,800
Speaker 1: like I get it. We have high expectations, but it's

474
00:24:36,800 --> 00:24:38,960
Speaker 1: not that big of a deal. And it's like I

475
00:24:39,000 --> 00:24:40,680
Speaker 1: don't know that was one of those games. It's like

476
00:24:40,760 --> 00:24:44,080
Speaker 1: they gave away. They dominated Pittsburgh, and Pittsburgh literally won

477
00:24:44,119 --> 00:24:47,240
Speaker 1: that game in the fourth quarter. They were they were down, um,

478
00:24:47,359 --> 00:24:49,560
Speaker 1: what was it ten to six in the fourth quarter

479
00:24:50,000 --> 00:24:52,639
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh and they end up winning that game. Classic pros

480
00:24:52,720 --> 00:24:55,200
Speaker 1: versus shows public's gonna coming heavy on the Bills, Jet

481
00:24:55,720 --> 00:24:57,800
Speaker 1: Me and you were gonna take another home dog in Miami,

482
00:24:57,960 --> 00:25:00,399
Speaker 1: especially at three and a half. Four. We'll talk if

483
00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:02,199
Speaker 1: this is gonna be in our our five picks, but

484
00:25:02,920 --> 00:25:06,200
Speaker 1: as of right now on Tuesday, I wouldn't do because

485
00:25:06,200 --> 00:25:07,879
Speaker 1: I think we're gonna better get better value. So if

486
00:25:07,880 --> 00:25:10,040
Speaker 1: this line keeps moving, then then we'll maybe we'll talk

487
00:25:10,080 --> 00:25:11,879
Speaker 1: about a four or four and a half, right but

488
00:25:12,040 --> 00:25:13,800
Speaker 1: I do think it's gonna be one of our five picks.

489
00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:15,760
Speaker 1: At least it's going to be part of the conversation.

490
00:25:15,840 --> 00:25:21,800
Speaker 1: Like I'm definitely circling it because I love Miami. Here

491
00:25:22,320 --> 00:25:25,399
Speaker 1: at home coming off a big win. That defense is

492
00:25:25,440 --> 00:25:30,560
Speaker 1: so good. Uh, it feels like a great spot. And

493
00:25:30,600 --> 00:25:32,640
Speaker 1: it's why we do the podcast on Tuesday and Thursday

494
00:25:32,920 --> 00:25:35,320
Speaker 1: because so many of these lines move that on Thursday

495
00:25:35,440 --> 00:25:38,200
Speaker 1: we might be getting better opportunities we gotta pay attention

496
00:25:38,240 --> 00:25:42,160
Speaker 1: to it. Um uh total forty seven and a half

497
00:25:42,920 --> 00:25:47,080
Speaker 1: uh any thoughts there under this is gonna be a

498
00:25:47,160 --> 00:25:51,280
Speaker 1: great Um, this is gonna be a great one. That's

499
00:25:51,280 --> 00:25:54,880
Speaker 1: part of the money line parlay. Yeah, it's that would

500
00:25:54,920 --> 00:25:56,919
Speaker 1: definitely be a sweat because to me this is this

501
00:25:56,960 --> 00:25:58,840
Speaker 1: feels like the Bills win by a field goals. But

502
00:25:58,960 --> 00:26:02,840
Speaker 1: I would definitely put in with values there, making this

503
00:26:02,880 --> 00:26:08,120
Speaker 1: an underdog money line parlay. Uh. All right, man, Poor

504
00:26:08,160 --> 00:26:10,919
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell. It's gonna be so hard for this team

505
00:26:10,920 --> 00:26:14,399
Speaker 1: that had people lining up at seven am in Orchard

506
00:26:14,520 --> 00:26:19,840
Speaker 1: Park to tailgate and have little babies getting baptized by

507
00:26:19,960 --> 00:26:24,840
Speaker 1: busting little little cloth tables. Um to go into to

508
00:26:24,920 --> 00:26:28,440
Speaker 1: start the year and have the Dolphins, who we loved

509
00:26:29,560 --> 00:26:31,880
Speaker 1: in the a f C divisional preview? Is the best

510
00:26:31,960 --> 00:26:35,800
Speaker 1: value to win that division? Um be leading the division.

511
00:26:35,880 --> 00:26:42,040
Speaker 1: That's that's gonna be rough this next game Overreaction City

512
00:26:42,440 --> 00:26:47,080
Speaker 1: Los Angeles Rams at Indianapolis Colds. Right now, I have

513
00:26:47,119 --> 00:26:51,960
Speaker 1: the Rams four point favorites on the road of the

514
00:26:52,000 --> 00:26:55,520
Speaker 1: bets of the money, I discount the money at this

515
00:26:55,560 --> 00:26:58,240
Speaker 1: point because sometimes the money remembers it's a little too

516
00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:03,040
Speaker 1: early to really get a good gay But geez, Louise

517
00:27:04,800 --> 00:27:07,800
Speaker 1: Cults plus four, sign me up. We have to do it.

518
00:27:07,840 --> 00:27:09,640
Speaker 1: I hate this is why I hate my job. Though.

519
00:27:09,920 --> 00:27:11,639
Speaker 1: I don't even want to bet this game, but I

520
00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:13,040
Speaker 1: have it. At two and a half. I have to

521
00:27:13,080 --> 00:27:14,560
Speaker 1: bet a lot of money on this game. Now. Now

522
00:27:14,560 --> 00:27:16,480
Speaker 1: I have to bet the money line. It's so sickening

523
00:27:16,560 --> 00:27:18,960
Speaker 1: about this job. But Tip, this is, like you just

524
00:27:19,000 --> 00:27:22,200
Speaker 1: talked about, this is such a classic. Any team that

525
00:27:22,240 --> 00:27:24,720
Speaker 1: wins in primetime, I like usually fade him after week

526
00:27:24,760 --> 00:27:27,119
Speaker 1: one because it's just the public is just so in

527
00:27:27,200 --> 00:27:29,320
Speaker 1: on them. They won their all their bets off this

528
00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:33,040
Speaker 1: team in prime time. So for me, this line is

529
00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:36,200
Speaker 1: like I couldn't believe how much it moved already. Um

530
00:27:36,240 --> 00:27:38,040
Speaker 1: that that's just setting up to me that I'd wait

531
00:27:38,080 --> 00:27:40,520
Speaker 1: on this one as well. I don't the professionals might

532
00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:42,360
Speaker 1: come in on it, but I think by the time

533
00:27:42,400 --> 00:27:43,800
Speaker 1: we do Thursday Show, you might be able to get

534
00:27:43,800 --> 00:27:45,200
Speaker 1: another half a point, like go up to four and

535
00:27:45,200 --> 00:27:47,320
Speaker 1: a half. So I'll keep waiting. It just seems like

536
00:27:47,359 --> 00:27:49,400
Speaker 1: the money is just keep flooding in on this and

537
00:27:49,680 --> 00:27:51,960
Speaker 1: this is one of these where I have no doubt

538
00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:54,920
Speaker 1: in my mind that one of these plus four plus

539
00:27:54,920 --> 00:27:57,760
Speaker 1: four and a half home dogs. There's no way they

540
00:27:57,760 --> 00:27:59,520
Speaker 1: don't went out right. This is just this is just

541
00:27:59,560 --> 00:28:02,200
Speaker 1: the tip of coal. Everyone picked the Rams win the

542
00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:05,080
Speaker 1: Super Bowl. Everyone's you know, they're feeling reaffirmed in their

543
00:28:05,080 --> 00:28:07,680
Speaker 1: position because the Rams look like the far superior team

544
00:28:07,680 --> 00:28:10,560
Speaker 1: against the Bears. And it was seven with the Rams

545
00:28:10,760 --> 00:28:13,120
Speaker 1: and the Bears have the ball. Everyone in the back

546
00:28:13,119 --> 00:28:15,280
Speaker 1: of their mind was like, oh my god, the Bears

547
00:28:15,400 --> 00:28:17,520
Speaker 1: might come back and win this game. But then Andy

548
00:28:17,560 --> 00:28:19,840
Speaker 1: Dalton turned back into a Pumpkins. They're not playing any

549
00:28:19,880 --> 00:28:21,920
Speaker 1: Dalton again in this upcoming week. I think they're playing

550
00:28:21,920 --> 00:28:24,680
Speaker 1: a much much better offense in the Colts, where again

551
00:28:24,760 --> 00:28:27,800
Speaker 1: Carson Wentz has his problems, but I saw a little

552
00:28:27,800 --> 00:28:30,080
Speaker 1: flashes in that that game against the Seahawks where he

553
00:28:30,160 --> 00:28:31,560
Speaker 1: got kind of looked like he was figuring it out

554
00:28:31,560 --> 00:28:33,600
Speaker 1: there towards the end. I tell me what you saw,

555
00:28:33,640 --> 00:28:37,119
Speaker 1: because I'm wondering the same thing, like like, did I

556
00:28:37,160 --> 00:28:39,160
Speaker 1: see enough from the Colts to make me think they're

557
00:28:39,160 --> 00:28:42,280
Speaker 1: a good team or is this only fading sort of

558
00:28:42,360 --> 00:28:46,480
Speaker 1: popular opinion. No, that's fair. Maybe that's one of the

559
00:28:46,480 --> 00:28:48,600
Speaker 1: reasons we don't put in our picks because Carson make

560
00:28:48,760 --> 00:28:51,440
Speaker 1: need a little more time. Um, because he's still hold

561
00:28:51,440 --> 00:28:54,840
Speaker 1: onto the ball too long. It's it's ridiculous how this

562
00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:57,480
Speaker 1: guy doesn't learn from everything that happened in Philodoptera, where

563
00:28:57,520 --> 00:28:59,560
Speaker 1: his biggest problem was holding onto the ball too long,

564
00:28:59,640 --> 00:29:01,200
Speaker 1: trying to do too much instead of just taking what

565
00:29:01,240 --> 00:29:03,080
Speaker 1: the defense was giving him. And he was doing that

566
00:29:03,160 --> 00:29:04,760
Speaker 1: as soon as they got down. He started looking deep

567
00:29:04,800 --> 00:29:07,640
Speaker 1: instead have taken that underneath stuff. So that's a that's

568
00:29:07,640 --> 00:29:10,080
Speaker 1: a fair point by you. Maybe I am a little

569
00:29:10,080 --> 00:29:11,800
Speaker 1: too hyped up about the number. I should take a

570
00:29:11,800 --> 00:29:14,200
Speaker 1: step back and think about that, because again, what has

571
00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:16,520
Speaker 1: Carson wan showed us to really back him. I don't

572
00:29:16,560 --> 00:29:18,960
Speaker 1: know if he's worthy of being our our five picks.

573
00:29:19,480 --> 00:29:22,680
Speaker 1: The flip side the Rams, and thank you for that compliment,

574
00:29:22,680 --> 00:29:26,800
Speaker 1: by the way. The narcissist in me appreciates it. Uh,

575
00:29:26,960 --> 00:29:33,040
Speaker 1: the Rams, by the way. Then I think the Bears

576
00:29:33,040 --> 00:29:37,440
Speaker 1: were driving again, and I kept texting with my buddy Matt,

577
00:29:38,440 --> 00:29:41,960
Speaker 1: because of course, you know, we were watching this in

578
00:29:42,080 --> 00:29:47,000
Speaker 1: pure misery. The Rams were not doing that much on offense.

579
00:29:47,040 --> 00:29:52,600
Speaker 1: The score looks bad, but that was like before it

580
00:29:52,640 --> 00:29:55,120
Speaker 1: got out of hand, it was two or three plays

581
00:29:55,120 --> 00:29:58,040
Speaker 1: against the Bears that the really Rams. The Rams just

582
00:29:58,080 --> 00:30:00,720
Speaker 1: threw the ball over the top. The Bears had social

583
00:30:00,880 --> 00:30:08,600
Speaker 1: distancing worthy defensive breakdowns, and um, they got caught, but

584
00:30:09,120 --> 00:30:11,320
Speaker 1: they did a pretty good job defending underneath. They did

585
00:30:11,320 --> 00:30:13,920
Speaker 1: a really good job defending against the run. I thought

586
00:30:14,000 --> 00:30:18,200
Speaker 1: David Montgomery played lights out and was amazing against that

587
00:30:18,360 --> 00:30:23,719
Speaker 1: Rams front four and Andy Dalton. He completed the passes

588
00:30:23,760 --> 00:30:26,080
Speaker 1: he needed to complete. He made some pretty good plays.

589
00:30:26,760 --> 00:30:29,520
Speaker 1: They just couldn't sort of punch it in and they

590
00:30:29,560 --> 00:30:32,040
Speaker 1: gave too much away with those over the top throws.

591
00:30:32,960 --> 00:30:35,960
Speaker 1: I wasn't that impressed with the Rams. I was pleasantly

592
00:30:36,000 --> 00:30:38,719
Speaker 1: surprised with the Bears, and I thought it said more

593
00:30:38,760 --> 00:30:41,760
Speaker 1: about the Rams, where yeah, they're not a complete team,

594
00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:44,080
Speaker 1: but you can see how they lost some pieces on defense.

595
00:30:44,080 --> 00:30:46,480
Speaker 1: They've lost their de coordinator and there was just a

596
00:30:46,480 --> 00:30:49,440
Speaker 1: little things like that where Okay, they might have been

597
00:30:49,440 --> 00:30:51,880
Speaker 1: the number one defense last year, the Rams, but as

598
00:30:51,880 --> 00:30:53,880
Speaker 1: we all know, and football teams always have a little

599
00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:56,360
Speaker 1: bit of aggression, I think their aggression on defense might

600
00:30:56,360 --> 00:30:58,960
Speaker 1: be a lot more than we expect. The next game

601
00:30:59,440 --> 00:31:04,240
Speaker 1: sand for Cisco forty Niners at Philadelphia Eagles. I love

602
00:31:04,520 --> 00:31:11,280
Speaker 1: everything about this game. I love everything about betting the

603
00:31:11,320 --> 00:31:20,840
Speaker 1: Eagles in this game. Simon says, Simon says, bet the Eagles,

604
00:31:21,600 --> 00:31:30,719
Speaker 1: sis sis one, Simon says, do it, says, I love it.

605
00:31:30,880 --> 00:31:34,080
Speaker 1: The overreaction to me will be that the forty Niners

606
00:31:34,160 --> 00:31:37,800
Speaker 1: team defense isn't as bad as they looked against the lines.

607
00:31:37,840 --> 00:31:39,480
Speaker 1: That was all people to say. That was just junk

608
00:31:39,560 --> 00:31:42,600
Speaker 1: time going in. I had a lot of doubts about

609
00:31:42,680 --> 00:31:45,440
Speaker 1: this secondary. That was why I was so high about

610
00:31:45,440 --> 00:31:48,880
Speaker 1: taking those points. Again, obviously I was off. I had

611
00:31:48,960 --> 00:31:51,440
Speaker 1: that line at five. It ended it. It closed at

612
00:31:51,480 --> 00:31:53,479
Speaker 1: eight and a half, and that's where the number landed

613
00:31:53,480 --> 00:31:55,800
Speaker 1: at eight. Or they could have kicked that fieldball at

614
00:31:55,800 --> 00:31:57,200
Speaker 1: the end there chat Andy would have landed right on

615
00:31:57,240 --> 00:31:59,800
Speaker 1: five and my genius, I don't know the fact that

616
00:31:59,840 --> 00:32:01,360
Speaker 1: it four Downards came out of that game with a

617
00:32:01,400 --> 00:32:03,840
Speaker 1: couple of major injuries. They had another injury to their

618
00:32:03,880 --> 00:32:06,760
Speaker 1: running back, get the injury to their number one cornerback,

619
00:32:07,920 --> 00:32:10,640
Speaker 1: and that poor guy Jason Barrett. I I feel terrible

620
00:32:10,680 --> 00:32:13,920
Speaker 1: for him. He's super talented. He played great last year

621
00:32:15,680 --> 00:32:18,400
Speaker 1: but in Los Angeles for the Chargers, and it feels

622
00:32:18,440 --> 00:32:20,520
Speaker 1: like every other year he just gets some kind of

623
00:32:20,520 --> 00:32:24,640
Speaker 1: devastating injury. So let's just see what we talked about

624
00:32:24,640 --> 00:32:27,080
Speaker 1: in the whole offseason chat when people told me I

625
00:32:27,080 --> 00:32:29,560
Speaker 1: was a homer. When I kept saying hundred and one,

626
00:32:29,640 --> 00:32:32,440
Speaker 1: take Hurts wh m v PI, there was value there

627
00:32:32,480 --> 00:32:36,040
Speaker 1: just because it's the Lamar Jackson of fact. Lamar came

628
00:32:36,080 --> 00:32:38,760
Speaker 1: in a second year and he was just fantasy. He

629
00:32:38,840 --> 00:32:40,880
Speaker 1: was like fantasy Gangbusters, the guy I was running for

630
00:32:40,880 --> 00:32:43,840
Speaker 1: all these yards, scoring all these touchdowns. I said, we

631
00:32:43,880 --> 00:32:45,680
Speaker 1: had the same upside here with Hurts. If they use

632
00:32:45,840 --> 00:32:49,120
Speaker 1: him right in this offense, they have him running, passing, scoring,

633
00:32:49,920 --> 00:32:51,719
Speaker 1: this guy could have great value a hundred and one.

634
00:32:51,720 --> 00:32:53,280
Speaker 1: I think he's already down out of four to one

635
00:32:53,640 --> 00:32:56,040
Speaker 1: m v PI, which might be a reaction a week

636
00:32:56,080 --> 00:33:00,000
Speaker 1: one Atlanta could suck and be terrible, or Chris Raymond

637
00:33:00,000 --> 00:33:02,160
Speaker 1: can be spot on when he talked about the Eagles

638
00:33:02,200 --> 00:33:04,520
Speaker 1: have the best offensive line and the best defensive line.

639
00:33:04,560 --> 00:33:08,600
Speaker 1: So Eagles are so locked in or right now, I

640
00:33:08,640 --> 00:33:11,480
Speaker 1: think this offense is humming this this game too. We're

641
00:33:11,480 --> 00:33:13,400
Speaker 1: gonna talk about the over. I love the over as well,

642
00:33:14,160 --> 00:33:16,760
Speaker 1: but I could see the Eagles having the most points

643
00:33:16,760 --> 00:33:20,080
Speaker 1: in this game. Where I saw Jimmy g I don't

644
00:33:20,120 --> 00:33:22,280
Speaker 1: think he played flawless. I think he got he got

645
00:33:22,320 --> 00:33:24,920
Speaker 1: a lot of a lot of help from the lines defense.

646
00:33:24,960 --> 00:33:27,920
Speaker 1: So when we're just talking about going from playing the

647
00:33:27,960 --> 00:33:30,719
Speaker 1: lines the Eagles defense, obviously it's a big step up.

648
00:33:30,720 --> 00:33:33,640
Speaker 1: Eagles defensive much better back to back road games as

649
00:33:33,680 --> 00:33:35,880
Speaker 1: well for the four nine ers. That's another reason just

650
00:33:35,920 --> 00:33:38,800
Speaker 1: to be on this Eagles team. But three and a half,

651
00:33:39,360 --> 00:33:41,800
Speaker 1: you're giving me the kicker as well. I don't need

652
00:33:41,840 --> 00:33:43,840
Speaker 1: a chat taking Egos money line. This is an hour

653
00:33:43,920 --> 00:33:46,080
Speaker 1: right winning for the Eagles here, so I am almost

654
00:33:46,160 --> 00:33:49,560
Speaker 1: hunching my positive. This is one of our five picks. Agree.

655
00:33:50,760 --> 00:33:52,880
Speaker 1: I'm with you all the way. Saw this squared that

656
00:33:52,960 --> 00:33:55,600
Speaker 1: circle that to whatever I had to do. You reference Raybon.

657
00:33:55,920 --> 00:33:58,360
Speaker 1: I do want to remind people Chris Raybon is one

658
00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:01,120
Speaker 1: of the Action print analysts, host the Action Network uh

659
00:34:01,280 --> 00:34:06,520
Speaker 1: NFL podcast Action Network channel Go download and subscribe. Um,

660
00:34:06,600 --> 00:34:08,239
Speaker 1: he was all over the Eagles in this, and then

661
00:34:08,280 --> 00:34:10,799
Speaker 1: our show convinced me Simon was all over the Falcons

662
00:34:10,880 --> 00:34:13,440
Speaker 1: and it was a really contentious point and showed me

663
00:34:13,520 --> 00:34:15,759
Speaker 1: the difference between a guy who approaches it from an

664
00:34:15,800 --> 00:34:20,040
Speaker 1: analytics metrics data perspective and a guy who uses all

665
00:34:20,120 --> 00:34:22,440
Speaker 1: that but also is a professional better who looks at

666
00:34:22,440 --> 00:34:26,200
Speaker 1: markets and and things like that. And Raybond loved the

667
00:34:26,239 --> 00:34:28,279
Speaker 1: Eagles for all these reasons, and the game played out

668
00:34:28,280 --> 00:34:31,120
Speaker 1: exactly like he would say, and I just thought that

669
00:34:31,200 --> 00:34:35,000
Speaker 1: was amazing and it lit up like all the signals

670
00:34:35,400 --> 00:34:37,680
Speaker 1: were there. I saw the Niners favorite in this game,

671
00:34:37,719 --> 00:34:40,160
Speaker 1: and I'm like, this is a to Eagles almost to

672
00:34:40,200 --> 00:34:44,359
Speaker 1: the point where maybe we're too enthusiastic. Yeah, this might

673
00:34:44,400 --> 00:34:46,640
Speaker 1: be Washington over again, because this this just feels a

674
00:34:46,760 --> 00:34:49,480
Speaker 1: layoff where it's like all the signs point to the

675
00:34:49,520 --> 00:34:52,640
Speaker 1: Eagles being the easiest bet here. So we might be

676
00:34:52,680 --> 00:34:56,279
Speaker 1: in some humble pie come next Tuesday, or we're going

677
00:34:56,320 --> 00:35:10,800
Speaker 1: to be champions. We next game Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears.

678
00:35:11,320 --> 00:35:14,319
Speaker 1: The Chicago Bears are three point favorites in this game.

679
00:35:15,000 --> 00:35:17,760
Speaker 1: The totals forty four and a half. It's a really

680
00:35:17,920 --> 00:35:22,080
Speaker 1: interesting matchup, you know. I love the Bears. Definitely performed

681
00:35:22,080 --> 00:35:26,239
Speaker 1: better than expected. Bengals did exactly what you said they

682
00:35:26,239 --> 00:35:29,279
Speaker 1: would do. They covered that game, went over everything you

683
00:35:29,360 --> 00:35:34,520
Speaker 1: said that would happen happened. The Cincinnati Bengals came roaring

684
00:35:34,719 --> 00:35:39,640
Speaker 1: back handicapped this from me. By the end of the week,

685
00:35:39,680 --> 00:35:42,960
Speaker 1: I really started to come around Cincinnati. I had enough. Again,

686
00:35:43,000 --> 00:35:44,799
Speaker 1: that's my favorite part of my job is I do

687
00:35:44,880 --> 00:35:48,000
Speaker 1: have these contacts in the desert, and if they reach

688
00:35:48,040 --> 00:35:50,319
Speaker 1: out to me and these old times your talent information,

689
00:35:50,880 --> 00:35:53,040
Speaker 1: I might be an asshole poopoo like I did with

690
00:35:53,080 --> 00:35:55,160
Speaker 1: Green Bay and gets smacked around when the Saints are

691
00:35:55,239 --> 00:35:57,640
Speaker 1: up thirty eight the three, or I can listen to

692
00:35:57,680 --> 00:36:01,279
Speaker 1: him like I did with the Cincinnati Bengals. And it's

693
00:36:01,280 --> 00:36:03,560
Speaker 1: one of those where I was worried about Joe and I

694
00:36:03,520 --> 00:36:05,040
Speaker 1: I had multiple people reach out to me said, hey,

695
00:36:05,120 --> 00:36:07,840
Speaker 1: Joe's looked great in practice, and so has Jamaar Chase,

696
00:36:08,040 --> 00:36:10,560
Speaker 1: and this is one of these where you should take

697
00:36:10,600 --> 00:36:13,200
Speaker 1: this number and you should take the over I got.

698
00:36:13,320 --> 00:36:15,720
Speaker 1: I got lucky there that over last week, the Vikings

699
00:36:15,760 --> 00:36:18,520
Speaker 1: didn't wake up till midway through the third quarter and

700
00:36:18,600 --> 00:36:20,560
Speaker 1: it went to overtime, and basically all I needed was

701
00:36:20,600 --> 00:36:22,600
Speaker 1: a field goal to get to overtime, and that's what happened.

702
00:36:22,640 --> 00:36:26,800
Speaker 1: That's when we overhead. So it's a game where I

703
00:36:27,560 --> 00:36:33,200
Speaker 1: believe the Bengals are overvalued, of course, but are they

704
00:36:33,200 --> 00:36:35,600
Speaker 1: not properly valued. This line feels like what exactly it

705
00:36:35,640 --> 00:36:38,040
Speaker 1: should be. It's three and it hasn't moved, which is

706
00:36:38,040 --> 00:36:40,839
Speaker 1: making me a little scared. Where it's like, Okay, if

707
00:36:40,880 --> 00:36:42,239
Speaker 1: I had to pick a side, I'm gonna take the

708
00:36:42,239 --> 00:36:44,239
Speaker 1: home team and the Bears here when it's three where

709
00:36:44,239 --> 00:36:46,680
Speaker 1: this this game is a coin flip. But the no

710
00:36:46,840 --> 00:36:48,640
Speaker 1: movement the bagas might be telling you we have a

711
00:36:48,680 --> 00:36:50,920
Speaker 1: trap here and the Bears are gonna win this pretty easily,

712
00:36:51,239 --> 00:36:54,080
Speaker 1: But the numbers say otherwise. With Joe Burrow, he's seven

713
00:36:54,080 --> 00:36:55,719
Speaker 1: to and one. I believe as a home as a

714
00:36:55,840 --> 00:36:59,840
Speaker 1: road dog in his young career. So against the spread,

715
00:37:00,320 --> 00:37:02,640
Speaker 1: I would normally take the Bears chat, but because of

716
00:37:02,640 --> 00:37:05,120
Speaker 1: your voodoo with the Bears, I guess we can't put

717
00:37:05,160 --> 00:37:06,960
Speaker 1: them in our five because it's never worked out for

718
00:37:07,040 --> 00:37:09,680
Speaker 1: us whenever we we both love the Bears, that's when

719
00:37:09,680 --> 00:37:12,319
Speaker 1: you shouldn't take the Bears. So we might be falling

720
00:37:12,320 --> 00:37:14,400
Speaker 1: to a trap here. But man minus three with the

721
00:37:14,440 --> 00:37:18,560
Speaker 1: Bears at home, with your defense against Joe Burrow, I

722
00:37:18,640 --> 00:37:20,640
Speaker 1: have to take the Bears. I just that's too good

723
00:37:20,640 --> 00:37:22,839
Speaker 1: of a number not to take. Yeah, it does feel

724
00:37:22,840 --> 00:37:25,200
Speaker 1: a little bit like it's too short, right. You know,

725
00:37:25,400 --> 00:37:29,640
Speaker 1: I think that taking my biases out of the way,

726
00:37:30,280 --> 00:37:33,200
Speaker 1: taking them out of the way, that's the same principles

727
00:37:33,200 --> 00:37:38,359
Speaker 1: and theories apply to this game that they do to say,

728
00:37:39,080 --> 00:37:43,680
Speaker 1: the Rams game right where you have to take a

729
00:37:43,719 --> 00:37:45,279
Speaker 1: little bit of the shine off the Bengals for what

730
00:37:45,320 --> 00:37:47,440
Speaker 1: they did against the Vikings and a little bit of

731
00:37:47,480 --> 00:37:51,120
Speaker 1: the sort of grossness off the Bears for how badly

732
00:37:51,320 --> 00:37:55,000
Speaker 1: it looked against the Rams, and go with the short number.

733
00:37:55,120 --> 00:37:58,640
Speaker 1: So I can't disagree with you at all. Yeah, and

734
00:37:58,760 --> 00:38:01,080
Speaker 1: again people were getting a star hard time the lines.

735
00:38:02,000 --> 00:38:03,680
Speaker 1: People wasn't like I was taking tell you to take

736
00:38:03,719 --> 00:38:05,440
Speaker 1: the Bears all last week at seven and a half,

737
00:38:05,560 --> 00:38:07,279
Speaker 1: that was also supposed to be a sharp number of

738
00:38:07,320 --> 00:38:10,000
Speaker 1: primetime game. Wherever all the public was coming in on

739
00:38:10,040 --> 00:38:12,680
Speaker 1: the Rams, I stayed away. I end up taking the Rams.

740
00:38:12,719 --> 00:38:16,120
Speaker 1: We took them as well in our Survivor contest. It's

741
00:38:16,560 --> 00:38:19,200
Speaker 1: again I paid for Detroit, Like, I bet that seven

742
00:38:19,239 --> 00:38:22,399
Speaker 1: a half for three months. So people that didn't think

743
00:38:22,440 --> 00:38:24,239
Speaker 1: that was that hurt me. It killed me. That was

744
00:38:24,400 --> 00:38:27,000
Speaker 1: that was a five figure loss. But I bet the eight,

745
00:38:27,160 --> 00:38:28,640
Speaker 1: I bet the eight and a half, I bet the nine,

746
00:38:28,640 --> 00:38:29,799
Speaker 1: I bet the nine a half and when it got

747
00:38:29,840 --> 00:38:32,480
Speaker 1: to ten minus, I took that too, but I just

748
00:38:32,520 --> 00:38:34,720
Speaker 1: didn't put that much on it. But you just can't

749
00:38:34,719 --> 00:38:37,280
Speaker 1: bet it just on Tuesday, and then if the numbers

750
00:38:37,360 --> 00:38:39,319
Speaker 1: moving against what you bet, you just sit there and go, well,

751
00:38:39,560 --> 00:38:40,839
Speaker 1: I already bet at seven and a half. I don't

752
00:38:40,840 --> 00:38:42,279
Speaker 1: want to invest anymore now that it's eight and a

753
00:38:42,320 --> 00:38:44,240
Speaker 1: half nine and a half. Now you have to trust

754
00:38:44,320 --> 00:38:47,239
Speaker 1: yourself and what you believe in and bet these things.

755
00:38:47,280 --> 00:38:51,000
Speaker 1: It's it's scary. It definitely is when the whole public

756
00:38:51,040 --> 00:38:53,520
Speaker 1: and the pros are going against you. But again, you

757
00:38:53,520 --> 00:38:55,440
Speaker 1: have to trust the numbers you're putting out there. That's

758
00:38:55,440 --> 00:38:57,799
Speaker 1: why I was just so big in the lines where

759
00:38:58,080 --> 00:38:59,920
Speaker 1: everyone hated so much. I knew it was gonna come

760
00:39:00,040 --> 00:39:02,279
Speaker 1: through where the Bears were different. I heard plenty of

761
00:39:02,280 --> 00:39:04,520
Speaker 1: professionals say, no, this is too. I have a number

762
00:39:04,520 --> 00:39:06,879
Speaker 1: of the Rams. It's their first game with Stafford take

763
00:39:06,920 --> 00:39:09,520
Speaker 1: the seven half. We stayed away from that luckily, so

764
00:39:09,840 --> 00:39:12,640
Speaker 1: we're not suckers for the Bears here. We're pretty smart

765
00:39:12,680 --> 00:39:15,120
Speaker 1: when we do and do not take the Bears. Las

766
00:39:15,239 --> 00:39:20,360
Speaker 1: Vegas Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers. Las Vegas Raiders five and

767
00:39:20,360 --> 00:39:23,719
Speaker 1: a half, six and a half. I don't have a

768
00:39:23,800 --> 00:39:26,520
Speaker 1: read on this right now. I mean, we have to

769
00:39:26,600 --> 00:39:29,280
Speaker 1: take the Steelers. I don't. I just talked about fading

770
00:39:29,320 --> 00:39:33,239
Speaker 1: these times, these teams off prime time. It's it's a

771
00:39:33,360 --> 00:39:35,919
Speaker 1: system I've stuck to in these early weeks, my whole

772
00:39:35,960 --> 00:39:39,520
Speaker 1: life doing this. I do believe this is a fair number.

773
00:39:39,520 --> 00:39:41,360
Speaker 1: I had it at five, so right now I actually

774
00:39:41,360 --> 00:39:45,400
Speaker 1: am leading towards value being on the Raiders. But man,

775
00:39:45,800 --> 00:39:49,759
Speaker 1: coming off that win, especially that way going on the road.

776
00:39:49,840 --> 00:39:55,239
Speaker 1: Now they're playing arguably one of the best defenses in football. Uh,

777
00:39:55,800 --> 00:39:58,480
Speaker 1: I'll say, I'll say Baltimore is pretty good too. We

778
00:39:58,520 --> 00:40:00,879
Speaker 1: talked about their injuries though Jim B. Smith was out,

779
00:40:01,480 --> 00:40:04,359
Speaker 1: like they just lost Marcus Peters. They've had some major jews.

780
00:40:04,400 --> 00:40:07,960
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh is healthy, and the biggest fear of Pittsburgh is

781
00:40:07,960 --> 00:40:10,160
Speaker 1: they're they're they're playing them on the most. They're they're

782
00:40:10,200 --> 00:40:12,600
Speaker 1: the teams with like I think it was them the

783
00:40:12,680 --> 00:40:16,280
Speaker 1: Lions and might even the Jags, or maybe the Jets

784
00:40:16,760 --> 00:40:19,080
Speaker 1: started the most rookies and the rookies played the most

785
00:40:19,080 --> 00:40:22,400
Speaker 1: snaps Week one. It's a little scary of the Pittsburgh

786
00:40:22,880 --> 00:40:26,040
Speaker 1: because I think we talked about it we liked Oakland

787
00:40:26,160 --> 00:40:29,720
Speaker 1: coming in this year. I gave out Derek Carr fifty

788
00:40:29,880 --> 00:40:31,759
Speaker 1: one the legal League in passing. I guess she's number

789
00:40:31,760 --> 00:40:33,440
Speaker 1: one in league in passing right now. Chad our good

790
00:40:33,440 --> 00:40:38,319
Speaker 1: friend Derek Carr of the Las Vegas Raiders every time.

791
00:40:39,040 --> 00:40:43,279
Speaker 1: Uh yeah, So if you're if you're a homer here

792
00:40:43,440 --> 00:40:46,399
Speaker 1: for for Vegas, I get it. You can take take them,

793
00:40:46,440 --> 00:40:48,879
Speaker 1: take the money line. I have to fade what they're

794
00:40:48,880 --> 00:40:50,719
Speaker 1: coming off of, and I have to take a team where.

795
00:40:51,600 --> 00:40:55,480
Speaker 1: I love Pittsburgh. I love their defense there, They're why

796
00:40:55,480 --> 00:40:58,040
Speaker 1: are receiving corps in the Dallas Corps. It just seems

797
00:40:58,040 --> 00:40:59,759
Speaker 1: like they're gonna be on these teams that no matter what,

798
00:41:00,360 --> 00:41:02,399
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh always gonna be in games because they have three

799
00:41:02,440 --> 00:41:06,439
Speaker 1: dominant receivers sam as Dallas. So I like this number.

800
00:41:06,480 --> 00:41:08,040
Speaker 1: I think it's a fair price. And we had to

801
00:41:08,080 --> 00:41:10,319
Speaker 1: take some favorites, don't we chat? So this is one

802
00:41:10,320 --> 00:41:12,640
Speaker 1: of those the mad to the list. I like Pittsburgh

803
00:41:12,640 --> 00:41:14,600
Speaker 1: this upcoming a week, I don't. I don't hate it.

804
00:41:14,960 --> 00:41:18,000
Speaker 1: I don't hate it at all. Uh, I can't. I

805
00:41:18,000 --> 00:41:19,719
Speaker 1: can't argue with you because the next game I do

806
00:41:19,800 --> 00:41:21,319
Speaker 1: want to talk about I don't want to spend too

807
00:41:21,400 --> 00:41:23,719
Speaker 1: much time on Steelers Raiders, but I like the under

808
00:41:23,719 --> 00:41:25,600
Speaker 1: in that game as well. For eight and a half.

809
00:41:26,520 --> 00:41:28,040
Speaker 1: It scared me a little bit. The pros came in

810
00:41:28,080 --> 00:41:30,200
Speaker 1: so heavy on the over. But I do like the

811
00:41:30,280 --> 00:41:33,919
Speaker 1: under in that game. This next game, it's gonna test

812
00:41:34,000 --> 00:41:38,120
Speaker 1: all of our principles and philosophies. New England Patriots at

813
00:41:38,239 --> 00:41:42,880
Speaker 1: New York Jets. The Patriots five and a half point

814
00:41:42,960 --> 00:41:47,080
Speaker 1: favorites on the road against the New York Jets, two

815
00:41:47,120 --> 00:41:50,040
Speaker 1: rookie quarterbacks, rookie coach in the New York Jets home

816
00:41:50,120 --> 00:41:54,040
Speaker 1: debut for Zach Wilson and Robert Sale, Bill Belichick coming

817
00:41:54,080 --> 00:41:57,160
Speaker 1: off a home loss with Mac Jones, who looked good, manageable,

818
00:41:57,520 --> 00:42:00,680
Speaker 1: made the right throws. Sometimes you gotta do gross things.

819
00:42:01,840 --> 00:42:06,399
Speaker 1: I will put the Jets in my money line, parlay

820
00:42:06,440 --> 00:42:12,640
Speaker 1: with the Eagles with the Dolphins hundred percent doing that.

821
00:42:13,080 --> 00:42:17,600
Speaker 1: Don't do it, don't do yeah, Or I guess he

822
00:42:17,640 --> 00:42:20,520
Speaker 1: does cover against rookies. I think he's fourteen and twelve,

823
00:42:21,120 --> 00:42:23,600
Speaker 1: but he mainly just wins. I think he's twenty and

824
00:42:23,680 --> 00:42:26,879
Speaker 1: three against rookie straight up, something crazy like that. So

825
00:42:27,840 --> 00:42:32,120
Speaker 1: or maybe it's twenty and six straight up against rookies. UM,

826
00:42:32,160 --> 00:42:34,399
Speaker 1: I love the Jets here. This is an inflated line.

827
00:42:34,400 --> 00:42:36,799
Speaker 1: It's the same thing where last week when you called

828
00:42:36,800 --> 00:42:38,720
Speaker 1: me up and you said, all right, who are we taking?

829
00:42:38,760 --> 00:42:40,319
Speaker 1: I said, we either have to take the Jets five

830
00:42:40,400 --> 00:42:42,080
Speaker 1: and a half. You gotta take the Bengals three and

831
00:42:42,080 --> 00:42:43,919
Speaker 1: a half. We gotta take the Lines seven and a half.

832
00:42:44,480 --> 00:42:46,120
Speaker 1: One of these teams is not going to cover, though.

833
00:42:46,200 --> 00:42:47,880
Speaker 1: We have to figure out which one it is. We

834
00:42:48,000 --> 00:42:49,840
Speaker 1: messed up. We left the Jets out and end up

835
00:42:49,840 --> 00:42:51,920
Speaker 1: being the Lines not covering by half a point. So

836
00:42:53,320 --> 00:42:55,640
Speaker 1: it's a smart line. It feels like Vegas is gonna

837
00:42:55,640 --> 00:42:58,320
Speaker 1: be really smart with this Jets team this season. UM

838
00:42:58,880 --> 00:43:00,920
Speaker 1: a lot of injuries. That's the biggest fear with me

839
00:43:00,960 --> 00:43:03,160
Speaker 1: with this Jets team. That's the only reason I'm not

840
00:43:03,600 --> 00:43:06,400
Speaker 1: like definitely putting this in our five because I loved it.

841
00:43:06,480 --> 00:43:09,799
Speaker 1: Even last week before they even played, I knew, no

842
00:43:09,840 --> 00:43:12,880
Speaker 1: matter what, the pub was gonna becoming heavy heavy on

843
00:43:12,920 --> 00:43:15,279
Speaker 1: the Patriots, no matter what their outcome of their game was.

844
00:43:15,960 --> 00:43:19,320
Speaker 1: I thought Mac looked good. Honestly, Mac Jones played pretty

845
00:43:19,320 --> 00:43:22,440
Speaker 1: well for them. He had that one dumb pick um,

846
00:43:22,480 --> 00:43:24,880
Speaker 1: but other than that I thought he played smart, But again,

847
00:43:25,440 --> 00:43:27,799
Speaker 1: it's a big number for a rookie quarterback on the road.

848
00:43:28,040 --> 00:43:30,720
Speaker 1: And I liked what I saw from the Jets defense

849
00:43:30,719 --> 00:43:33,840
Speaker 1: in their second half adjustments against Carolina. Carolina scored sixteen

850
00:43:33,840 --> 00:43:35,880
Speaker 1: points in the first half. I think they only scored

851
00:43:35,960 --> 00:43:39,239
Speaker 1: three in the second half. So it's a divisional game, Chad,

852
00:43:39,280 --> 00:43:40,680
Speaker 1: how can we not take the home dog in the

853
00:43:40,680 --> 00:43:43,040
Speaker 1: divisional game? Already there with Miami, we're doing again here

854
00:43:43,040 --> 00:43:45,600
Speaker 1: with the Jets. We're we're kind of setting ourselves up

855
00:43:45,640 --> 00:43:49,319
Speaker 1: for major failure here. But five and a half weight

856
00:43:49,400 --> 00:43:51,239
Speaker 1: on this. It's gonna keep getting bet up. This is

857
00:43:51,280 --> 00:43:53,960
Speaker 1: definitely on the six in my opinion, this is like,

858
00:43:54,560 --> 00:43:57,120
Speaker 1: how does the public not keep betting this up? They're

859
00:43:57,120 --> 00:44:00,600
Speaker 1: gonna love the Bell Belichickstad we just talk abowy and

860
00:44:00,640 --> 00:44:02,400
Speaker 1: six straight up. Everyone's gonna be putting this one in

861
00:44:02,400 --> 00:44:05,840
Speaker 1: their teaser. We're gonna have another conversation about that on Thursday.

862
00:44:06,000 --> 00:44:09,440
Speaker 1: That that Jets game. I've I've circle squared it right now.

863
00:44:09,480 --> 00:44:11,359
Speaker 1: The game the games that I know we're gonna want

864
00:44:11,360 --> 00:44:14,960
Speaker 1: to have another conversation about on Thursday, the Bills visiting Miami,

865
00:44:15,440 --> 00:44:19,000
Speaker 1: the Niners visiting the Eagles, since he visiting the Bears,

866
00:44:19,400 --> 00:44:22,640
Speaker 1: the Raiders visiting the Steelers, the Paths visiting the Jets,

867
00:44:22,680 --> 00:44:24,600
Speaker 1: those are all games that we're definitely gonna want to

868
00:44:24,600 --> 00:44:27,200
Speaker 1: have a deeper conversation. And I forgot to say my team.

869
00:44:27,239 --> 00:44:29,640
Speaker 1: I got a bunch of money on was that Eagles game?

870
00:44:30,320 --> 00:44:33,800
Speaker 1: Got it well? Obviously, Simon says yeah. And so just

871
00:44:33,840 --> 00:44:35,080
Speaker 1: as soon as I hit three and a half, I

872
00:44:35,120 --> 00:44:38,279
Speaker 1: pounced on it. I I was waiting for it to

873
00:44:38,320 --> 00:44:39,920
Speaker 1: hit do number because I knew the public coming on

874
00:44:39,960 --> 00:44:42,239
Speaker 1: the fourt niners. And now I'm just gonna keep waiting

875
00:44:42,239 --> 00:44:44,960
Speaker 1: to hope it goes to four. I'm gonna keep waiting

876
00:44:45,000 --> 00:44:46,400
Speaker 1: hope it goes for because I don't want to. I

877
00:44:46,440 --> 00:44:47,600
Speaker 1: want to get the best of the number now, and

878
00:44:47,600 --> 00:44:50,640
Speaker 1: I think it's going in that direction. New Orleans Saints

879
00:44:51,040 --> 00:44:56,040
Speaker 1: at Carolina Panthers. The Saints are going to be road favorites.

880
00:44:56,200 --> 00:44:59,080
Speaker 1: They're about a four point road favorite right now. Again,

881
00:44:59,560 --> 00:45:02,520
Speaker 1: give me, give me against the overreaction. Of course, I

882
00:45:02,520 --> 00:45:04,960
Speaker 1: want to take the Panthers here. I died two. We

883
00:45:05,040 --> 00:45:06,879
Speaker 1: might have to wait till Thursday. Talked about this game

884
00:45:06,960 --> 00:45:09,400
Speaker 1: just because I saw that the Saints might have an

885
00:45:09,400 --> 00:45:13,520
Speaker 1: outbreak right now on their coaching staff with COVID so

886
00:45:14,920 --> 00:45:17,120
Speaker 1: coming in, I was all in on Carolina. Now feels

887
00:45:17,160 --> 00:45:19,560
Speaker 1: like it's the easy take to make that we like Carolina,

888
00:45:19,680 --> 00:45:22,279
Speaker 1: but um, we can talk about that on Thursday. Once again,

889
00:45:22,360 --> 00:45:24,520
Speaker 1: more information, we'll see who as COVID, if Sean Payton

890
00:45:24,600 --> 00:45:27,359
Speaker 1: is gonna be able to be there. It's again it's

891
00:45:27,360 --> 00:45:29,080
Speaker 1: a lot of the movie parts of season with COVID.

892
00:45:29,160 --> 00:45:31,600
Speaker 1: So this is our first really major one that this

893
00:45:31,640 --> 00:45:34,560
Speaker 1: could shake up something. So as we're standing right here,

894
00:45:34,560 --> 00:45:36,200
Speaker 1: if you have to make a pick in this game,

895
00:45:37,120 --> 00:45:39,080
Speaker 1: I would take Carolina in the four, but I would

896
00:45:39,080 --> 00:45:42,600
Speaker 1: wait on that to get it more information. Minnesota Vikings

897
00:45:42,920 --> 00:45:47,640
Speaker 1: at Arizona Cardinals. Minnesota right now is a three and

898
00:45:47,640 --> 00:45:51,719
Speaker 1: a half point underdog. I kind of thought it would

899
00:45:51,760 --> 00:45:54,080
Speaker 1: be more. I thought there would be a bigger overreaction.

900
00:45:54,160 --> 00:45:56,480
Speaker 1: So to me, this feels a little bit like a pass.

901
00:45:59,520 --> 00:46:01,400
Speaker 1: It was was four and a half the proceed it,

902
00:46:01,680 --> 00:46:06,640
Speaker 1: so that's it's a pro game overreaction. Cardinals looked like

903
00:46:06,640 --> 00:46:11,359
Speaker 1: the best team in Week one. Chandler Jones had five sacks. Yeah,

904
00:46:11,440 --> 00:46:13,400
Speaker 1: we we uh we talked about while we were down

905
00:46:13,440 --> 00:46:15,640
Speaker 1: on Tennessee Chad. They got rid of John new Smith,

906
00:46:15,800 --> 00:46:18,759
Speaker 1: aregably one the best run block uh pass blocking tight

907
00:46:18,840 --> 00:46:22,160
Speaker 1: ends in the league, and Corey Davis another top five

908
00:46:22,280 --> 00:46:26,480
Speaker 1: run block pass blocking wide receiver. So we saw what

909
00:46:26,520 --> 00:46:29,040
Speaker 1: happened Derrick Henry against the Cardinals. He really couldn't do much.

910
00:46:29,320 --> 00:46:32,360
Speaker 1: He had no blocking, so the offensive line had troubles

911
00:46:32,360 --> 00:46:36,640
Speaker 1: handling the Cardinals defensive line. Overreaction to the moon in

912
00:46:36,680 --> 00:46:40,160
Speaker 1: this game, the fact that the bookmakers only moved to

913
00:46:40,200 --> 00:46:42,640
Speaker 1: a point let you all you need to know. And

914
00:46:42,680 --> 00:46:45,400
Speaker 1: the public is gonna come in so heavy on the Cardinals,

915
00:46:45,400 --> 00:46:48,680
Speaker 1: so either stay away, you take Minnesota in this game. Um,

916
00:46:49,120 --> 00:46:50,759
Speaker 1: I understand why you don't want to put in our five.

917
00:46:50,800 --> 00:46:53,280
Speaker 1: But again, this one we're probably gonna talk about Thursday.

918
00:46:53,280 --> 00:46:56,279
Speaker 1: Maybe we're gonna feel a little better about it. Yeah,

919
00:46:56,280 --> 00:46:58,040
Speaker 1: but if I'm already not getting the better the best

920
00:46:58,080 --> 00:47:01,040
Speaker 1: of the number, like from a it's perspective, I want

921
00:47:01,120 --> 00:47:03,560
Speaker 1: nothing to do with it. These lines move though, That's

922
00:47:03,560 --> 00:47:04,960
Speaker 1: what I'm trying to say to you. Like the public,

923
00:47:05,719 --> 00:47:10,880
Speaker 1: the public love the bet Sunday eleven am. It's that

924
00:47:12,000 --> 00:47:14,279
Speaker 1: that's true. So like Sunday at eleven am, and you

925
00:47:14,280 --> 00:47:16,040
Speaker 1: should watch. Convince me to get the latest on the

926
00:47:16,080 --> 00:47:20,720
Speaker 1: lines at Actual Network h Q Sundays at eleven am Eastern. Uh.

927
00:47:20,760 --> 00:47:22,359
Speaker 1: This game could go back up to four and four

928
00:47:22,400 --> 00:47:25,160
Speaker 1: and a half, and that's what we want. We wanted

929
00:47:25,160 --> 00:47:27,520
Speaker 1: to get back up there all three and a half.

930
00:47:27,560 --> 00:47:29,880
Speaker 1: That's not worth the value. It's a wait weight on

931
00:47:29,920 --> 00:47:36,239
Speaker 1: the game. Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, our favorite team.

932
00:47:36,360 --> 00:47:38,680
Speaker 1: We promised this was going to be in Atlanta Falcons

933
00:47:38,760 --> 00:47:41,200
Speaker 1: podcast all year because we love this team so much.

934
00:47:41,760 --> 00:47:44,759
Speaker 1: Then they go out and do Falcons lax because that's

935
00:47:44,760 --> 00:47:53,040
Speaker 1: what they did. Falcons visiting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Champa Bay.

936
00:47:53,560 --> 00:47:58,960
Speaker 1: Right now, the Falcons are eleven and a half point underdogs.

937
00:48:00,760 --> 00:48:04,160
Speaker 1: Put it on the Falcons, folks, thank you, Chad. Yep,

938
00:48:04,760 --> 00:48:08,240
Speaker 1: throw it on the Falcon's money line as well. Hornets nest.

939
00:48:08,760 --> 00:48:11,480
Speaker 1: We're walking into a hornets nest. I'm walking to a

940
00:48:11,480 --> 00:48:25,960
Speaker 1: fucking hornets nest. All right, I'll be my companion. Really,

941
00:48:26,000 --> 00:48:28,400
Speaker 1: you're just saying it already. This is the definition of

942
00:48:28,400 --> 00:48:30,520
Speaker 1: a hornet's nest. I don't even need your approval on this.

943
00:48:30,640 --> 00:48:32,719
Speaker 1: I'm right, aren't I. Scott Miller are a good friend

944
00:48:32,800 --> 00:48:34,719
Speaker 1: has me doing real work for your company out Chad,

945
00:48:35,000 --> 00:48:37,480
Speaker 1: and it's a shame he makes me going. I have

946
00:48:37,560 --> 00:48:39,920
Speaker 1: to put in from my assystem where I think each

947
00:48:40,120 --> 00:48:42,080
Speaker 1: spread should be and what the over under should be.

948
00:48:42,120 --> 00:48:44,640
Speaker 1: I guess he puts it into some who knows what.

949
00:48:44,880 --> 00:48:48,440
Speaker 1: It's a lot of nerdy stuff. It's a magic machine, yeah, exactly.

950
00:48:48,480 --> 00:48:51,839
Speaker 1: So I was scared to even do it because uh,

951
00:48:52,120 --> 00:48:53,960
Speaker 1: Sean and Stucky both put their numbers in there, and

952
00:48:54,000 --> 00:48:56,520
Speaker 1: they weren't anywhere close to mine. But I didn't. I

953
00:48:56,560 --> 00:48:59,160
Speaker 1: had this had seven and a half of Atlanta. Uh

954
00:48:59,440 --> 00:49:04,520
Speaker 1: love the love the money line Divisional game. Atlanta couldn't

955
00:49:04,520 --> 00:49:06,799
Speaker 1: have played any worse against the Eagles. That that's just

956
00:49:06,840 --> 00:49:08,319
Speaker 1: like the green bag game. We're gonna talk about how

957
00:49:08,360 --> 00:49:10,720
Speaker 1: to throw out game. That's how the Atlanta game felt.

958
00:49:11,120 --> 00:49:13,719
Speaker 1: I think their offensive line has the lowest grade in

959
00:49:13,840 --> 00:49:17,640
Speaker 1: Pro Football Focus, which is uh a little scary because

960
00:49:17,640 --> 00:49:19,600
Speaker 1: we're going against arguably one of the best d lines

961
00:49:19,640 --> 00:49:22,320
Speaker 1: in all football. But Atlanta is not gonna run the

962
00:49:22,320 --> 00:49:24,840
Speaker 1: ball anyway. They're a passing team. And we saw how

963
00:49:24,880 --> 00:49:27,600
Speaker 1: awful and banged up this buck in your secondar area is,

964
00:49:27,640 --> 00:49:30,239
Speaker 1: so give it to me, give me, give me. Those

965
00:49:30,280 --> 00:49:32,600
Speaker 1: points live for the back door in this game. We

966
00:49:32,640 --> 00:49:33,920
Speaker 1: are never gonna be out of this game. Even if

967
00:49:33,920 --> 00:49:36,399
Speaker 1: it's thirty to ten, We're still in this game. Chat.

968
00:49:36,520 --> 00:49:39,200
Speaker 1: So this this number, it's coming down a little bit.

969
00:49:39,280 --> 00:49:40,960
Speaker 1: I think open thirteen and a half now it's down

970
00:49:41,040 --> 00:49:44,520
Speaker 1: to twelve or eleven and a half as certain books. Yeah,

971
00:49:44,520 --> 00:49:46,960
Speaker 1: I would tell you to jump on it, but the

972
00:49:46,960 --> 00:49:48,920
Speaker 1: pros could be done. The pros could be waiting for

973
00:49:48,960 --> 00:49:51,719
Speaker 1: it to go back up. So I don't know. That's hard.

974
00:49:51,800 --> 00:49:53,920
Speaker 1: I I like, I feel so bad now about the

975
00:49:53,960 --> 00:49:55,680
Speaker 1: Lions last week, people taking a seven and a half.

976
00:49:55,719 --> 00:49:57,399
Speaker 1: You can see. I'm scared to tell people take these

977
00:49:57,400 --> 00:50:00,680
Speaker 1: big numbers on Tuesday. But if you like this number,

978
00:50:00,719 --> 00:50:03,399
Speaker 1: take it already have but you can keep waiting because

979
00:50:03,440 --> 00:50:05,279
Speaker 1: I do think by Sunday this money line is gonna

980
00:50:05,280 --> 00:50:09,799
Speaker 1: go up as well. Is this a candidate for a

981
00:50:09,800 --> 00:50:13,520
Speaker 1: money line parlor? This is definitely gonna be in the

982
00:50:13,840 --> 00:50:16,920
Speaker 1: round robin. Wow. I always throw a big one in

983
00:50:16,960 --> 00:50:18,360
Speaker 1: there because you only have to hit it once or

984
00:50:18,400 --> 00:50:20,960
Speaker 1: twice a year and you get your money backs temfold.

985
00:50:21,080 --> 00:50:24,520
Speaker 1: Like fifty for Detroit. They had the ball on the

986
00:50:24,520 --> 00:50:26,400
Speaker 1: twenty five yard line with a chance to tie the

987
00:50:26,440 --> 00:50:29,040
Speaker 1: game and go to overtime. That's where we live for it, Chad,

988
00:50:29,120 --> 00:50:32,280
Speaker 1: So I'll take it again. If it's a plus three hundred,

989
00:50:32,360 --> 00:50:34,080
Speaker 1: we're more than happy plus four and are more than

990
00:50:34,080 --> 00:50:36,160
Speaker 1: happy to take it. Do we worry at all that

991
00:50:36,200 --> 00:50:38,640
Speaker 1: the Falcons looked so bad that none of the stuff

992
00:50:38,640 --> 00:50:40,319
Speaker 1: we thought they would be good at that my Matt

993
00:50:40,400 --> 00:50:42,400
Speaker 1: Ryan thirty eight to one to lead the league and

994
00:50:42,520 --> 00:50:46,880
Speaker 1: touchdown passes looks d o A like they looked terrible

995
00:50:47,040 --> 00:50:49,520
Speaker 1: Or was the Falcons or the Eagles defense just that good.

996
00:50:51,320 --> 00:50:53,440
Speaker 1: That's the hardest part about Week one because they look

997
00:50:53,560 --> 00:50:58,839
Speaker 1: absolutely lost. Just the blocking scheme for Atlanta. They started out,

998
00:50:58,920 --> 00:51:01,880
Speaker 1: so I mean, they really the dominating the Eagles on

999
00:51:01,880 --> 00:51:03,960
Speaker 1: the front. They're running the ball down the Eagles throat,

1000
00:51:04,280 --> 00:51:06,080
Speaker 1: They're they're passing it all the way down the field.

1001
00:51:06,080 --> 00:51:08,840
Speaker 1: They kept selling for field goals, and all of a

1002
00:51:08,840 --> 00:51:10,960
Speaker 1: sudden it just flipped and they got out schemes. So

1003
00:51:11,080 --> 00:51:15,160
Speaker 1: you could be right, I could be over not giving

1004
00:51:15,160 --> 00:51:17,880
Speaker 1: too much credit to Arthur Smith, but I truly believe

1005
00:51:17,920 --> 00:51:19,680
Speaker 1: in him as a coordinator. Now I believe him as

1006
00:51:19,719 --> 00:51:21,759
Speaker 1: a head coach. So it's one of those r have

1007
00:51:21,800 --> 00:51:24,479
Speaker 1: to trust my numbers and again if they lay another

1008
00:51:24,520 --> 00:51:26,920
Speaker 1: egg here, of course, Chad, I'm gonna be updating this

1009
00:51:27,000 --> 00:51:30,080
Speaker 1: and maybe I'm way too high on this Atlanta Falcons team. Look,

1010
00:51:30,120 --> 00:51:32,400
Speaker 1: you should remind people usually take three or four weeks

1011
00:51:32,400 --> 00:51:35,760
Speaker 1: for professional betters and for bookmakers to really adjust power ratings,

1012
00:51:35,800 --> 00:51:38,520
Speaker 1: Like you gotta get a sample um and the trust

1013
00:51:38,560 --> 00:51:40,839
Speaker 1: what you believe going in. Yeah, you can't just change

1014
00:51:40,840 --> 00:51:42,839
Speaker 1: it out. You can't be the public and overreact after

1015
00:51:42,880 --> 00:51:48,240
Speaker 1: one week. Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers

1016
00:51:48,320 --> 00:51:51,799
Speaker 1: are very small favorites in this game. The Chargers are

1017
00:51:51,800 --> 00:51:55,919
Speaker 1: two and a half point favorites. Very low number, very

1018
00:51:55,960 --> 00:51:59,440
Speaker 1: low number, too much of a coin flip for us

1019
00:51:59,440 --> 00:52:01,560
Speaker 1: to putting the on to us that there's certain games

1020
00:52:01,640 --> 00:52:04,800
Speaker 1: or it feels like both defenses are lacking in areas

1021
00:52:04,800 --> 00:52:08,200
Speaker 1: where the offenses are going against are so high powered. Yeah,

1022
00:52:08,200 --> 00:52:10,759
Speaker 1: I'm never gonna feel comfrom this game. The Chargers could

1023
00:52:10,760 --> 00:52:12,879
Speaker 1: be up by thirteen, I won't feel great. I could

1024
00:52:12,880 --> 00:52:14,839
Speaker 1: have Dallas and they could be up by thirteen. I'm

1025
00:52:14,840 --> 00:52:16,839
Speaker 1: still gonna be nervous because their defense is so bad.

1026
00:52:16,920 --> 00:52:20,200
Speaker 1: So I'm coolest anyway, I have this one, but I

1027
00:52:20,200 --> 00:52:22,719
Speaker 1: I will be betting the Chargers. I can just see

1028
00:52:22,719 --> 00:52:26,040
Speaker 1: the public coming in heavy on the Cowboys and two

1029
00:52:26,080 --> 00:52:27,640
Speaker 1: and a half under a field goal of the home

1030
00:52:27,680 --> 00:52:30,640
Speaker 1: team that I believe has the better team all around

1031
00:52:30,760 --> 00:52:34,120
Speaker 1: than the Cowboys. I'm happy to take Herbert here, So

1032
00:52:34,719 --> 00:52:37,160
Speaker 1: give me the Chargers of minus two and a half. Yeah,

1033
00:52:37,200 --> 00:52:39,440
Speaker 1: I agree like I don't think we want to make

1034
00:52:39,440 --> 00:52:43,359
Speaker 1: it a top five pick, but I do almost automatically

1035
00:52:43,640 --> 00:52:45,560
Speaker 1: a team as good as we think the Chargers are

1036
00:52:46,080 --> 00:52:48,160
Speaker 1: less than a less than a field goal, that's an

1037
00:52:48,200 --> 00:52:50,560
Speaker 1: auto play for me. Yeah, that was an impressive win.

1038
00:52:50,600 --> 00:52:52,080
Speaker 1: You went on they went on the road week one

1039
00:52:52,120 --> 00:52:55,080
Speaker 1: with a coach, and that they really played well in

1040
00:52:55,080 --> 00:52:58,680
Speaker 1: that game against a really good defense. The total in

1041
00:52:58,680 --> 00:53:00,760
Speaker 1: this game is fifty five, and if you gotta thought

1042
00:53:01,880 --> 00:53:06,359
Speaker 1: so high the process, take the under. But I know

1043
00:53:06,400 --> 00:53:08,759
Speaker 1: how secretly I'm fidett bet this over because it's such

1044
00:53:08,760 --> 00:53:11,040
Speaker 1: a fun game. But I already know I'm about to

1045
00:53:11,040 --> 00:53:13,359
Speaker 1: get five phone calls right when this podcast comes out

1046
00:53:13,360 --> 00:53:15,560
Speaker 1: because you have to bet this under. So I'll do

1047
00:53:15,600 --> 00:53:18,240
Speaker 1: the professional thing and tell people you take this under.

1048
00:53:19,040 --> 00:53:21,640
Speaker 1: And now a word from our friends at Fandel. The

1049
00:53:21,760 --> 00:53:24,600
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1050
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1051
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1052
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1053
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1054
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1055
00:53:42,880 --> 00:53:46,839
Speaker 1: ten dollars. For example, this Thursday night, I'm considering the

1056
00:53:46,880 --> 00:53:51,560
Speaker 1: Washington football team moneyline, the under and Daniel Jones rushing

1057
00:53:51,640 --> 00:53:55,880
Speaker 1: yards over. And remember, if you see an s GP

1058
00:53:56,320 --> 00:54:01,880
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1059
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1060
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1061
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1062
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1080
00:55:14,960 --> 00:55:19,120
Speaker 1: to five two in Arizona. Let's get back to the show.

1081
00:55:19,800 --> 00:55:25,800
Speaker 1: Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks. The Titans are big, big

1082
00:55:25,880 --> 00:55:28,839
Speaker 1: dogs in this game, relatively speaking. It opened to three

1083
00:55:28,880 --> 00:55:30,720
Speaker 1: and a half. It's now at five and a half.

1084
00:55:31,760 --> 00:55:36,320
Speaker 1: Seattle I thought played amazingly well against the Colts, and

1085
00:55:36,400 --> 00:55:38,960
Speaker 1: a really good Colts defense like that Colts defense is

1086
00:55:38,960 --> 00:55:42,600
Speaker 1: no joke, so um, tell me why I wouldn't take

1087
00:55:43,040 --> 00:55:47,080
Speaker 1: the Seahawks here. I'm trying hard not to overreact. Um,

1088
00:55:47,200 --> 00:55:49,879
Speaker 1: but everything I just talked about them losing Johnny Smith

1089
00:55:49,920 --> 00:55:52,279
Speaker 1: on the best best blocking tight ends them losing Corey

1090
00:55:52,320 --> 00:55:55,240
Speaker 1: Davids from the best blocking receivers. The coach is already

1091
00:55:55,239 --> 00:55:58,080
Speaker 1: sucking shit about Julio Jones after the first game, saying

1092
00:55:58,080 --> 00:56:00,880
Speaker 1: that he needs to shut up. So hate the vibes

1093
00:56:00,920 --> 00:56:03,120
Speaker 1: come out, Tennessee. This is one of the bigger unders

1094
00:56:03,160 --> 00:56:05,600
Speaker 1: we had coming into the season. I was really down

1095
00:56:05,600 --> 00:56:07,480
Speaker 1: on them, and I a lot of people were pissed

1096
00:56:07,520 --> 00:56:09,879
Speaker 1: that I was bad mouth in Tennessee. I think they're

1097
00:56:09,880 --> 00:56:12,000
Speaker 1: starting to see what I was seeing, that this team

1098
00:56:12,040 --> 00:56:15,720
Speaker 1: had a lot of just change coming it's way, especially

1099
00:56:15,719 --> 00:56:19,840
Speaker 1: after losing Arthur Smith and the Falcons and the Seahawks,

1100
00:56:19,880 --> 00:56:21,879
Speaker 1: that they always come out of the gates playing well.

1101
00:56:22,000 --> 00:56:23,960
Speaker 1: That that was a bad reby meeting to think taking

1102
00:56:23,960 --> 00:56:26,759
Speaker 1: the Colts last weekendst them. So I'm not doing again

1103
00:56:26,800 --> 00:56:30,799
Speaker 1: this week. Seahawks having fans back at home, twelve man

1104
00:56:31,440 --> 00:56:34,759
Speaker 1: Tannehill on the road, I love it. Fade them here.

1105
00:56:34,800 --> 00:56:36,920
Speaker 1: This this to me chat if we get a good

1106
00:56:37,000 --> 00:56:39,759
Speaker 1: number here, if this stays at five under six, I

1107
00:56:39,800 --> 00:56:41,680
Speaker 1: have no problem putting this of our five best. This

1108
00:56:41,719 --> 00:56:43,160
Speaker 1: is one of the favorites. I do like this. I

1109
00:56:43,200 --> 00:56:47,160
Speaker 1: completely agree. I love this game. Let's lock it in now, dude,

1110
00:56:47,360 --> 00:56:49,560
Speaker 1: we're done, We're done, put it in. I might go

1111
00:56:49,640 --> 00:56:50,960
Speaker 1: bet this right now. As soon as we get off

1112
00:56:51,000 --> 00:56:53,720
Speaker 1: the podcast, I'm gonna go bet this game. Kansas City

1113
00:56:53,800 --> 00:56:58,279
Speaker 1: Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens. Right now, I'm looking at the

1114
00:56:58,320 --> 00:57:01,839
Speaker 1: Chiefs three and a half point favorites. It opened it one,

1115
00:57:02,160 --> 00:57:07,640
Speaker 1: obviously changing from last night. Oh gosh, easy, easy bet.

1116
00:57:08,040 --> 00:57:10,400
Speaker 1: Chad already knows what we're doing here. Prime time game,

1117
00:57:10,480 --> 00:57:14,360
Speaker 1: home dog just lost an embarrassing fashion and prime time

1118
00:57:15,239 --> 00:57:17,680
Speaker 1: love it. Public. Please keep betting the Chiefs because I

1119
00:57:17,680 --> 00:57:19,920
Speaker 1: would love a better number than four. Keep give me

1120
00:57:19,920 --> 00:57:21,480
Speaker 1: four and a half, give me five. I would love

1121
00:57:21,480 --> 00:57:23,840
Speaker 1: it to take it here. We've seen the Chiefs. They

1122
00:57:23,880 --> 00:57:27,720
Speaker 1: can't stop the run. Chad and the Ravens they just

1123
00:57:27,840 --> 00:57:30,200
Speaker 1: keep picking guys up. I mean, they made Murray look

1124
00:57:30,280 --> 00:57:34,440
Speaker 1: young last night running the ball. So I like this

1125
00:57:34,520 --> 00:57:39,120
Speaker 1: matchup a lot for the Ravens. Um Even if the

1126
00:57:39,200 --> 00:57:42,040
Speaker 1: Chiefs come out firing, they get an early lead, they're

1127
00:57:42,040 --> 00:57:44,200
Speaker 1: never gonna be out of this game. This is especially

1128
00:57:44,200 --> 00:57:48,160
Speaker 1: it's the home opener for them, So people, I get it.

1129
00:57:48,400 --> 00:57:50,160
Speaker 1: I hate it too. It's not gonna be one of

1130
00:57:50,200 --> 00:57:54,160
Speaker 1: me and Chad's fives most likely. Um, just because it's

1131
00:57:54,240 --> 00:57:56,360
Speaker 1: terrifying going against Patrick my Homes. It is the most

1132
00:57:56,440 --> 00:58:00,480
Speaker 1: terrifying thing ever. So I love the plus floor. But

1133
00:58:00,520 --> 00:58:02,440
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna tell anyone to take the money line

1134
00:58:02,480 --> 00:58:05,160
Speaker 1: here because my Homes hasn't lost in September and eleven

1135
00:58:05,200 --> 00:58:09,280
Speaker 1: games eleven straight wins in September from home, so it's

1136
00:58:09,320 --> 00:58:12,160
Speaker 1: not worth betting against him at this point. So I

1137
00:58:12,160 --> 00:58:13,760
Speaker 1: will not be taking the Raven's money line, but I

1138
00:58:13,760 --> 00:58:17,120
Speaker 1: will be taking the plus four. Monday Night football, Ugly,

1139
00:58:17,240 --> 00:58:22,760
Speaker 1: ugly game, hard one handicap Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers.

1140
00:58:23,240 --> 00:58:28,440
Speaker 1: Right now, the Packers are eleven and a half point favorites.

1141
00:58:29,200 --> 00:58:32,120
Speaker 1: This feels like a stay away from me. Cool staying away,

1142
00:58:32,160 --> 00:58:37,040
Speaker 1: but also cool with taking the lines. Um. Personally green

1143
00:58:37,040 --> 00:58:41,959
Speaker 1: Bay's defense, Wow, were they bad against the scenes, out

1144
00:58:41,960 --> 00:58:45,600
Speaker 1: coached at every level. Um. I'm hoping that Green Bay's

1145
00:58:45,680 --> 00:58:48,080
Speaker 1: new d C can figure it out pretty quick because

1146
00:58:48,080 --> 00:58:50,760
Speaker 1: he might get fired after just two weeks. He's actually

1147
00:58:50,840 --> 00:58:53,320
Speaker 1: a guy that came from the Rams and they've put

1148
00:58:53,360 --> 00:58:56,080
Speaker 1: a lot of expectations on him. He might be just

1149
00:58:56,160 --> 00:58:57,920
Speaker 1: like Zach Taylor, where it's like these guys come from

1150
00:58:57,920 --> 00:59:01,800
Speaker 1: the Sean mcbaigh coaching train. They're just complete duds. Um

1151
00:59:01,960 --> 00:59:05,959
Speaker 1: that that defense look horrible against the Saints again, Aaron

1152
00:59:06,040 --> 00:59:09,360
Speaker 1: Rodgers lead them astray. Um. I think the numbers are

1153
00:59:10,200 --> 00:59:14,080
Speaker 1: he's uh three oh and he averages four touchdowns in

1154
00:59:14,080 --> 00:59:16,480
Speaker 1: our exceptions after games He's had a game like he

1155
00:59:16,520 --> 00:59:19,040
Speaker 1: had yesterday three other times in his career and he's

1156
00:59:19,080 --> 00:59:21,400
Speaker 1: three and oh with four touchdowns and zero exceptions and

1157
00:59:21,440 --> 00:59:24,080
Speaker 1: all three of those games. I just like the over

1158
00:59:24,120 --> 00:59:26,080
Speaker 1: in this game too. I I feel like that's the

1159
00:59:26,160 --> 00:59:28,400
Speaker 1: much safer bet where you're gonna be able to get

1160
00:59:28,440 --> 00:59:31,200
Speaker 1: some junp time touchdowns from Detroit. Here, this back door

1161
00:59:31,240 --> 00:59:35,240
Speaker 1: will open the entire game. Um, and Roger's gonna show

1162
00:59:35,320 --> 00:59:39,040
Speaker 1: up that that was embarrassing, complete dud of a game.

1163
00:59:39,920 --> 00:59:42,680
Speaker 1: But let's just take uh, let's take a second here

1164
00:59:42,720 --> 00:59:44,600
Speaker 1: and think about maybe everything Man Mitchell said in the

1165
00:59:44,560 --> 00:59:46,680
Speaker 1: off season is true. This guy has got drama, he's

1166
00:59:46,680 --> 00:59:49,800
Speaker 1: got demons, he's not happy, he doesn't want to play

1167
00:59:49,800 --> 00:59:52,800
Speaker 1: for this team. They got a bunch of turmoil. That's

1168
00:59:52,800 --> 00:59:55,919
Speaker 1: all noise that could all be true. I mean, whatever

1169
00:59:55,960 --> 00:59:57,720
Speaker 1: reason you need, that could be a reason to take

1170
00:59:57,760 --> 01:00:00,240
Speaker 1: the lines. Just off the number base. This number should

1171
01:00:00,240 --> 01:00:02,919
Speaker 1: be ten, eleven, eleven and a half. That's a great

1172
01:00:03,000 --> 01:00:05,880
Speaker 1: number to take the line. So you take the value

1173
01:00:05,920 --> 01:00:07,280
Speaker 1: here and don't even think about it. This is one

1174
01:00:07,280 --> 01:00:09,240
Speaker 1: of these games where I'll probably bet it. I might

1175
01:00:09,280 --> 01:00:11,080
Speaker 1: make plans from Monday night. Maybe I'll go to dinner

1176
01:00:11,080 --> 01:00:13,800
Speaker 1: because this is this is awful. This is an awful game.

1177
01:00:14,880 --> 01:00:18,200
Speaker 1: Oh my god, that's too good. That's awesome. All right,

1178
01:00:18,280 --> 01:00:23,040
Speaker 1: let's recap quickly. On Thursday, we will narrow down several

1179
01:00:23,080 --> 01:00:25,520
Speaker 1: of the games that we picked today to our five

1180
01:00:25,960 --> 01:00:29,760
Speaker 1: favorite picks. Right now, we like the Bills at the Fins,

1181
01:00:29,800 --> 01:00:33,480
Speaker 1: we like Miami. We're looking at the Niners at Eagles.

1182
01:00:33,520 --> 01:00:35,640
Speaker 1: We like the Eagles since at the Bears. We like

1183
01:00:35,720 --> 01:00:38,680
Speaker 1: the Bears, Raiders at Steelers. We like the Steelers, Pats

1184
01:00:38,680 --> 01:00:40,600
Speaker 1: and Jets. We're gonna keep looking at that line. We're

1185
01:00:40,640 --> 01:00:43,000
Speaker 1: gonna wait on it. Probably gonna like the Falcons at

1186
01:00:43,040 --> 01:00:46,360
Speaker 1: the Bucks, Cowboys at Chargers's coin flip. We're gonna keep

1187
01:00:46,360 --> 01:00:48,360
Speaker 1: an eye on the Chargers, though probably not gonna think

1188
01:00:48,360 --> 01:00:51,400
Speaker 1: about us at our top five. Love the Seahawks in

1189
01:00:51,440 --> 01:00:54,760
Speaker 1: this spot, absolutely love them. Those are the games that

1190
01:00:54,760 --> 01:00:57,040
Speaker 1: we're gonna talk about on Thursday as we narrow it

1191
01:00:57,080 --> 01:01:01,280
Speaker 1: down our Hornets Nest or walking into the Hornets Nest.

1192
01:01:01,720 --> 01:01:04,000
Speaker 1: I'm walking to a fucking Hornets nest, all right, I'll

1193
01:01:04,040 --> 01:01:08,000
Speaker 1: be my companion. Falcons plus eleven and a half, Simon says,

1194
01:01:08,440 --> 01:01:10,840
Speaker 1: bet the Eagles. That's where he has the most early

1195
01:01:10,880 --> 01:01:15,400
Speaker 1: bets so far, that the Eagles underdogs at home. We

1196
01:01:15,520 --> 01:01:17,560
Speaker 1: got money line part ways to talk about on Thursday.

1197
01:01:17,600 --> 01:01:20,520
Speaker 1: We've got survivor pool to talk about on Thursday. But

1198
01:01:20,560 --> 01:01:22,480
Speaker 1: I feel like we've given people a pretty good round up.

1199
01:01:22,520 --> 01:01:23,920
Speaker 1: But what they want to think about if they want

1200
01:01:23,920 --> 01:01:25,560
Speaker 1: to get in some early bets right now and where

1201
01:01:25,600 --> 01:01:27,360
Speaker 1: our leans are, I know I'm going to get off

1202
01:01:27,360 --> 01:01:31,800
Speaker 1: this call and and start making some places. It's never

1203
01:01:31,840 --> 01:01:33,520
Speaker 1: two really in the weeks. Start firing away to Chad

1204
01:01:33,560 --> 01:01:36,800
Speaker 1: and again. If the line moves against you, people, trust yourself.

1205
01:01:36,920 --> 01:01:38,440
Speaker 1: If you if you think I'm full of ship, then

1206
01:01:38,480 --> 01:01:40,200
Speaker 1: just buy out. If you believe in me in my

1207
01:01:40,280 --> 01:01:43,080
Speaker 1: bet with the lines last week, keep hitting these numbers.

1208
01:01:43,120 --> 01:01:45,640
Speaker 1: You're you're literally the sports books are giving you value

1209
01:01:45,720 --> 01:01:47,800
Speaker 1: because they need people like you to bet with them.

1210
01:01:48,000 --> 01:01:50,120
Speaker 1: Sports books cleaned up last week. That could been to

1211
01:01:50,160 --> 01:01:52,400
Speaker 1: you if you just trusted what you were doing. So

1212
01:01:52,480 --> 01:01:55,560
Speaker 1: it's all really scary. Just make the bets, trust the numbers.

1213
01:01:56,000 --> 01:01:58,480
Speaker 1: I believe in you, Simon. I believe in you every

1214
01:01:58,520 --> 01:02:02,480
Speaker 1: single day. Thank your Dad. You are my b f F.

1215
01:02:02,720 --> 01:02:06,600
Speaker 1: You are my companion. This has been the favorites from

1216
01:02:06,600 --> 01:02:10,680
Speaker 1: the Value Podcast Network. Download from Spotify, from Apple Podcasts,

1217
01:02:10,760 --> 01:02:15,840
Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcast rate review subscribe. Also on Thursday,

1218
01:02:16,040 --> 01:02:18,480
Speaker 1: we will be doing the reviews for the people who

1219
01:02:18,560 --> 01:02:22,400
Speaker 1: we are choosing to potentially win one as Signmon's biggest

1220
01:02:22,440 --> 01:02:25,360
Speaker 1: bets of the year. It better be funny, it better

1221
01:02:25,360 --> 01:02:28,240
Speaker 1: be five stars. Can make fun of me, that's fine,

1222
01:02:28,320 --> 01:02:30,640
Speaker 1: but don't you dare make fun of my bfs. Simon.

1223
01:02:31,080 --> 01:02:35,320
Speaker 1: We will see you again on Thursday. I love you,