WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2020 NFL MegaPod Week 1 Preview 0:00:03.400 --> 0:00:13.040 Check it down Man, Now Down Man. September ten, it's 0:00:13.039 --> 0:00:16.759 being in the Big Podcast Week one of the National 0:00:16.880 --> 0:00:20.320 Football League season. It's Gill Alexander is our I'm gonna 0:00:20.320 --> 0:00:24.479 call our tenth season on the megapod very pumped. Thank 0:00:24.560 --> 0:00:27.160 you to everybody who has listened throughout the years. Uh, 0:00:27.280 --> 0:00:29.920 for everybody who asked for it. On Thursdays on Twitter, 0:00:30.320 --> 0:00:33.720 we love you back this year. The staples of the show. 0:00:34.120 --> 0:00:37.240 Yen's there from Pittsburgh, one of the stars of Showtimes 0:00:37.320 --> 0:00:40.560 docuseries Action Back in the Day. It's Todd wishing of 0:00:40.680 --> 0:00:43.880 a spelt, Todd wishing of how many pounds have you lost? Toddy, Well, 0:00:43.880 --> 0:00:47.280 I'm down to two nine. If you know, during the 0:00:47.320 --> 0:00:50.479 Action show I was three. So that's uh, if you're 0:00:50.520 --> 0:00:57.360 doing the math at home, that's about seventy six pounds. Anyways, 0:00:57.200 --> 0:00:59.880 that's a lot of pounds. Seventy six pounds from the 0:01:00.040 --> 0:01:03.440 talk and since since I was in Vegas another forty one. 0:01:03.760 --> 0:01:06.480 We're also a flying start everybody, and of course Mike 0:01:06.520 --> 0:01:09.760 Palm ladies and gentleman Derek Stephen's conciliary, uh, the vice 0:01:09.760 --> 0:01:13.280 president of operations over there at Circus Sports, Mikey, thank 0:01:13.319 --> 0:01:15.800 you for doing this. I'm so excited to be back 0:01:15.840 --> 0:01:18.640 on with Todd. I missed him as uh you know, 0:01:19.600 --> 0:01:21.600 was the Census year, and like all of his people, 0:01:21.600 --> 0:01:23.520 he had a return home for the Census, So I'm 0:01:23.520 --> 0:01:26.800 looking forward to seeing him. Not even sure, I don't 0:01:26.840 --> 0:01:28.959 even know what kind of like did that was. I 0:01:28.959 --> 0:01:31.480 didn't even really get it, so Mike, maybe you'll explain 0:01:31.520 --> 0:01:34.199 it to me later. That's just a governmental joke from Mike, 0:01:34.360 --> 0:01:37.640 nothing more a rotating guests, and we always have a 0:01:37.720 --> 0:01:40.679 rotating guest. He is always in the leadoff spot, a 0:01:40.760 --> 0:01:43.600 tradition unlike any other passed. We want him to give 0:01:43.600 --> 0:01:47.480 the year anymore former Super Contest champion over there when 0:01:47.520 --> 0:01:49.400 it was called the Hilton, so that gives you some 0:01:49.480 --> 0:01:54.000 sense of when in history, something like that, part of 0:01:54.000 --> 0:01:56.080 the San Susi team when he wanted at the time 0:01:56.640 --> 0:01:59.400 the finest record in Super Contest history as well. It's 0:01:59.440 --> 0:02:01.840 Brady Hand and how you doing, Brady. I'm doing great. 0:02:01.840 --> 0:02:04.840 Good to be back on the megapode now, Mike. Here's 0:02:04.840 --> 0:02:08.320 what happened before the show. Mikey joked that if Brady's 0:02:08.360 --> 0:02:10.120 on the show, is gonna last double the like that 0:02:10.160 --> 0:02:12.800 it normally does. So now Brady's only speaking in phrases. 0:02:13.120 --> 0:02:16.440 He's like, thank you's so happy to be here. You 0:02:17.120 --> 0:02:18.799 want to get on with it, Mike, get you down. 0:02:18.919 --> 0:02:20.880 I don't think you talked too much. And you know, Mike, 0:02:20.919 --> 0:02:23.320 he just loves to like get a get a like 0:02:23.560 --> 0:02:27.400 a meme going about somebody that's totally not true. And 0:02:27.440 --> 0:02:29.760 you know how it is, those big casino executives, they 0:02:29.800 --> 0:02:32.400 just care about themselves. We know, Brady, how many people 0:02:32.480 --> 0:02:34.920 were in the Super Contest in two thousand and eleven 0:02:34.960 --> 0:02:38.120 when you won it? Five hundred and seventeen. And what's 0:02:38.160 --> 0:02:41.960 interesting about that number? That was a record high at 0:02:41.960 --> 0:02:46.639 the time, and ever since then it really just increased exponentially. 0:02:46.680 --> 0:02:48.800 I think the next year there was about seven fifty, 0:02:48.919 --> 0:02:51.800 and then they got to about eleven hundred. And you know, 0:02:52.000 --> 0:02:54.560 nowadays we're into the neighborhood of the three thousands. Not 0:02:54.720 --> 0:02:57.600 this year, but yeah, five hundred and seventeen, and that 0:02:57.680 --> 0:03:00.200 was a record high. Brady, you're you're a modest Is 0:03:00.240 --> 0:03:02.240 it fair to say that it was your idea to 0:03:02.280 --> 0:03:07.880 have Super Contest weekend? Thereafter? It was? Yes, After the 0:03:08.280 --> 0:03:10.600 victory by San Susie, I got on the phone with 0:03:10.680 --> 0:03:12.880 Jake Hornegay and I said, Hey, let's let's throw a 0:03:12.919 --> 0:03:16.200 golf tournament. Let's have a big to do to get 0:03:16.200 --> 0:03:19.080 everybody fired up about football and have everybody come to 0:03:19.120 --> 0:03:22.120 your hotel for the weekend. And I think it was 0:03:22.200 --> 0:03:24.360 just a few weeks ago that we completed our ninth 0:03:24.440 --> 0:03:28.560 Super Contest weekend, so that has stuck. And now Mikey's 0:03:28.600 --> 0:03:32.000 involved too. They have their own contest weekend, so it's 0:03:32.000 --> 0:03:34.639 great stuff. Did you use the phrase to do when 0:03:34.680 --> 0:03:36.840 you asked about this with Jake Cornigant? Is that actually 0:03:36.960 --> 0:03:40.440 came up? I did, specifically, Yes, Mikey. Mikey. What Brady 0:03:40.520 --> 0:03:44.240 is referring to, obviously, is that Circus Sports h entered 0:03:44.280 --> 0:03:48.840 the contest game last year and too much fanfare. You 0:03:48.840 --> 0:03:50.720 are doing it again this year. You are doing it 0:03:50.760 --> 0:03:54.120 with a survivor contest as well. Can you explain to 0:03:54.200 --> 0:03:56.280 the people's I don't know why I just talked like 0:03:56.320 --> 0:03:59.040 Bill Cosgy, but can you explain to the people's what 0:03:59.240 --> 0:04:01.960 the overlay may or may not be in both of 0:04:02.000 --> 0:04:06.320 those as we approach Saturday week one deadline, because you've 0:04:06.320 --> 0:04:08.520 got a huge sprint here at the end of entries, 0:04:08.520 --> 0:04:13.040 didn't you a real a real last minute rush. I 0:04:13.080 --> 0:04:16.040 mean you asked the P. T. Barnum question about three 0:04:16.080 --> 0:04:19.440 weeks ago when we were at about three hundred entries. 0:04:19.560 --> 0:04:21.640 How much of this overlay is real? And how much 0:04:21.720 --> 0:04:25.839 is P T. Barnum? In the last fifteen days, we've 0:04:25.839 --> 0:04:29.760 done almost two thousand as we speak. The circle million 0:04:29.800 --> 0:04:33.279 to which this year Derek guaranteed three million instead of 0:04:33.320 --> 0:04:36.479 one point five million and needs three thousand entries to 0:04:36.640 --> 0:04:39.599 break even for us? Is that two thousand, four hundred 0:04:39.640 --> 0:04:42.440 and fifty six, And I mean there's an outside shot 0:04:42.480 --> 0:04:44.960 we get to three thousand. We did three hundred and 0:04:45.000 --> 0:04:48.920 thirty on Tuesday, and we did four hundred and thirty 0:04:49.000 --> 0:04:52.640 entries yesterday and we're at almost so you're gonna get 0:04:52.680 --> 0:04:54.839 it for sure. Then now we're not not for sure. 0:04:54.920 --> 0:04:59.560 Remember the proxies starting really tomorrow and Saturday have to 0:04:59.560 --> 0:05:01.800 start p and picks in so it's hard for them 0:05:01.839 --> 0:05:04.160 to get up a lot of appointments. The late rush, 0:05:04.400 --> 0:05:07.280 if it is one, will be mostly locals, people living 0:05:07.320 --> 0:05:10.159 in Nevada. So what's the what's the what's the drop 0:05:10.240 --> 0:05:14.200 dead hour? Like exact hour, the bewitching hour is two 0:05:14.240 --> 0:05:16.159 pm on Saturday, Todd and then you have to have 0:05:16.200 --> 0:05:19.520 your picks in by three now the survivor. We introduced 0:05:19.520 --> 0:05:21.720 it to Last Man Standing. I'm sure many of your 0:05:22.160 --> 0:05:25.000 loyal megapod listeners are familiar with dad. You pick a team, 0:05:25.000 --> 0:05:28.000 no point spread, you can only use them once during 0:05:28.000 --> 0:05:29.920 the year, and who's ever left at the end wins 0:05:29.960 --> 0:05:34.080 a million. Derek guaranteed a million, so we actually surpassed it, 0:05:34.279 --> 0:05:36.520 and we're at a thousand, forty seven right now, so 0:05:36.560 --> 0:05:39.960 maybe we get to twelve hundred, twelve fifty in that 0:05:40.080 --> 0:05:42.760 for a pot of one point three million. We added 0:05:42.760 --> 0:05:46.360 the rink goal that if anybody all, Todd, I want 0:05:46.400 --> 0:05:48.400 you to treat this like this is the McLaughlin group 0:05:48.440 --> 0:05:50.839 talk when you are called upon. Well, I haven't gotten 0:05:50.880 --> 0:05:54.200 any eartime in months, so it's my time, baby, It's 0:05:54.279 --> 0:05:57.360 my time. Let him tell his story. Todd is saying, 0:05:57.400 --> 0:06:00.280 with metaphysical certainty, will get to three thousand. There's some 0:06:00.520 --> 0:06:05.640 Laughlin reference for you, eleanor cliff anyhow maybe we can 0:06:05.680 --> 0:06:08.839 get the thirteen hundred. It's winner take all, Todd if 0:06:08.880 --> 0:06:12.279 anybody goes perfect. And we added the three Thanksgiving Day 0:06:12.320 --> 0:06:14.800 games as its own week, so you gotta say one 0:06:14.800 --> 0:06:17.080 of those six teams in case you get there. If 0:06:17.120 --> 0:06:20.120 anybody goes eighteen and oh, or multiple people go eighteen 0:06:20.120 --> 0:06:22.680 and old, Derek will add a million dollars on top 0:06:22.720 --> 0:06:25.479 of the pot. So one guy goes eighteen and al, 0:06:25.560 --> 0:06:27.480 he's looking at like two point two million right now. 0:06:27.480 --> 0:06:29.520 So even if it ended in week fourteen and there 0:06:29.560 --> 0:06:31.880 was one player left, he's still gotta put picks in 0:06:31.920 --> 0:06:33.120 the rest of the way to see even get the 0:06:33.160 --> 0:06:36.680 million dollar bonus. By the way, typically do survivor people 0:06:36.760 --> 0:06:39.440 go the entire season to win or do they usually 0:06:39.480 --> 0:06:42.360 win before the season ends? You know in stations they 0:06:42.400 --> 0:06:45.000 have a hundred thousand people in it. You know they're twenty. 0:06:46.400 --> 0:06:49.080 We'll have about a thousand. I would be surprised if 0:06:49.200 --> 0:06:52.120 if somebody made it eighteen and oh, I predicted it 0:06:52.120 --> 0:06:54.440 would be around fifteen or sixteenth week, would we'd be 0:06:54.480 --> 0:06:57.000 down to one? But we'll see. It's interesting, it's a 0:06:57.040 --> 0:06:59.360 different year, uh, And it'd be may may be tough 0:06:59.400 --> 0:07:01.120 to get through the first few weeks when we haven't 0:07:01.120 --> 0:07:04.520 seen anybody play. I asked Mikey a few weeks ago 0:07:04.760 --> 0:07:06.640 how much of this is real and how much of 0:07:06.640 --> 0:07:08.960 this is P. T. Barnum, which is my way of saying, damn, 0:07:09.120 --> 0:07:13.000 how much of this is you and Derek bullshit? I 0:07:13.040 --> 0:07:16.440 wanted told question for me. I apologize three weeks later, 0:07:16.840 --> 0:07:19.840 but you know, I thought a worthwhile question. Nonetheless, all right, boys, 0:07:19.840 --> 0:07:22.080 here's how it goes. We have the format that we've 0:07:22.080 --> 0:07:24.920 had for years. Let's move the Thursday night game up 0:07:24.920 --> 0:07:26.680 to the front. We don't have to elaborate on it 0:07:26.720 --> 0:07:29.040 if we have no particular conviction on either the side 0:07:29.160 --> 0:07:32.040 or the total. But it is the Chiefs and the Texans. 0:07:32.040 --> 0:07:33.800 It is nine and a half in favor of the 0:07:33.880 --> 0:07:36.760 Chiefs in a quote unquote home game. Right, it is 0:07:36.800 --> 0:07:39.240 a home game, but it's obviously the year of COVID, 0:07:39.560 --> 0:07:42.240 so things aren't exactly the same as they used to be. Uh. 0:07:42.320 --> 0:07:46.160 The total is at fifty four. Mikey, let's start with you, 0:07:46.280 --> 0:07:48.080 or actually, let's start with our guest, because that's the 0:07:48.080 --> 0:07:51.160 only polite thing to do. Brady, anything tonight Thursday Night football. 0:07:51.280 --> 0:07:54.680 I actually did play the Texans, and uh, you know, 0:07:54.760 --> 0:07:58.200 this is not a handicapping element that I think you 0:07:58.240 --> 0:08:00.400 want to base your play on, but I do think 0:08:00.400 --> 0:08:03.520 there is a little bit of a revenge angle here, uh, 0:08:03.560 --> 0:08:08.920 and specifically playoff revenge because we remember the Texans got 0:08:08.920 --> 0:08:11.800 out to a twenty four to nothing lead, and again 0:08:11.840 --> 0:08:14.080 that is not the basis of the handicap here. But 0:08:14.440 --> 0:08:17.600 I still believe that they have not forgotten that and 0:08:17.640 --> 0:08:20.760 do want to make amends for that. I also think 0:08:20.800 --> 0:08:24.160 the general public likes to bet against Bill O'Brien and 0:08:24.240 --> 0:08:27.800 the Chiefs conversely or are a big public darling. So 0:08:27.880 --> 0:08:30.760 I think this point spread is skewed a little bit. Um. 0:08:30.800 --> 0:08:34.200 I do think Houston has a chance to win the game. Um, 0:08:34.240 --> 0:08:37.120 but I'll go with the points here plus nine and 0:08:37.160 --> 0:08:40.640 a half and I'll say Kansas City by six. One 0:08:40.679 --> 0:08:43.440 of the more memorable playoff games in recent history. As 0:08:43.440 --> 0:08:46.480 Brady said, the Texans went out to nothing lead. Kansas 0:08:46.520 --> 0:08:49.760 City eventually wanted fifty one to thirty one, but they 0:08:49.760 --> 0:08:52.440 came back from the to nothing deficit, as I recall, 0:08:52.520 --> 0:08:56.200 with eight straight drives in which they scored, seven of 0:08:56.200 --> 0:08:59.760 which were touchdowns, one field goal. Just an amazing turn 0:08:59.800 --> 0:09:02.720 of events. One of the great playoffs is that, Brady 0:09:02.760 --> 0:09:04.760 is actual. Is that one of your three picks, Brady, 0:09:04.760 --> 0:09:08.600 Because as the stenographer, I have to get this down correctly. No, 0:09:08.960 --> 0:09:11.840 it is not one of my official best bets. For 0:09:11.880 --> 0:09:16.280 the podcast, but I do officially have the Texans in pocket. Todd, 0:09:16.400 --> 0:09:18.480 Let's ask you a question. Could you let the last 0:09:18.480 --> 0:09:20.719 three words of my last sentence finished before you do that? 0:09:20.840 --> 0:09:24.720 Or you just need to knock out those last three words? Two? Five? 0:09:25.360 --> 0:09:27.720 All right? I appreciate that, Mikey or Todd anything on 0:09:27.760 --> 0:09:32.559 this game tonight. Anything. I can't believe Todd Hadson spoken. 0:09:32.760 --> 0:09:35.199 And by the way, you're the secretary, You're not the 0:09:35.320 --> 0:09:41.480 straphyll he called me. I did, I did all fair. 0:09:41.480 --> 0:09:43.839 I'm sorry. Maybe I should doutgrade him if that's a 0:09:45.480 --> 0:09:47.960 I have an official play on this Okay. One of 0:09:47.960 --> 0:09:51.560 my three picks is tonight, and uh it's only because 0:09:51.600 --> 0:09:54.080 I'm really struggling to come up with three plays. But 0:09:54.200 --> 0:09:58.000 I'm gonna go over fifty four tonight this game. I 0:09:58.040 --> 0:10:01.200 think this Houston offense, you're down grading yourself. It's actually 0:10:01.200 --> 0:10:03.040 fifty three or fifty three and a half. This is 0:10:03.040 --> 0:10:05.280 the first time ever four in the open. If you 0:10:05.280 --> 0:10:08.880 were listening, he previewed the game as fifty four. Well, 0:10:08.920 --> 0:10:10.920 Gil got it wrong. Well, let me see, maybe I 0:10:10.920 --> 0:10:12.720 did get it wrong because I didn't have the totals up, 0:10:12.760 --> 0:10:17.120 So it's very possible ladies and gentlemen, that the number 0:10:17.120 --> 0:10:20.840 of the consensus number is my screens that coming up. 0:10:21.200 --> 0:10:24.880 Uh yeah, fifty three and a half. Actually, hold on, 0:10:25.040 --> 0:10:32.920 hold everything, fifty three. It is fifty three. Pardon whole point, Mikey, 0:10:33.240 --> 0:10:35.240 Wait a minute, you said fifty three and a half. 0:10:35.280 --> 0:10:38.160 You were trying to still chine me out of a half. 0:10:38.200 --> 0:10:40.880 So I'm gonna go over three or fifty three and 0:10:40.920 --> 0:10:43.640 a half. I saved you a point. I'm gonna go 0:10:43.720 --> 0:10:46.760 over fifty three. I think this Texans offense is loaded 0:10:47.480 --> 0:10:50.960 and and and here's the other reason. There's no crowd 0:10:51.000 --> 0:10:54.240 noise that arrowhead to mess with them on third and long. Okay, 0:10:54.280 --> 0:10:58.440 this will be an interesting factor for bookmakers when they're 0:10:58.440 --> 0:11:01.319 trying to set these totals. The defense is not gonna 0:11:01.360 --> 0:11:04.560 benefit the home team from loud noise and snap counts, 0:11:04.600 --> 0:11:07.240 not only the false starts, but your offensive line not 0:11:07.360 --> 0:11:09.560 firing off the ball all at the same time, I 0:11:09.600 --> 0:11:12.080 think this is the shootout. I'm with I'm with Brady. 0:11:12.080 --> 0:11:14.560 I think this number is greatly exaggerated. And if you 0:11:14.600 --> 0:11:16.520 could have gotten ten on this game, good for you. 0:11:16.600 --> 0:11:20.640 But official play todd over over fifty three from Mike 0:11:20.640 --> 0:11:23.120 Palm Todd anything from you right now, I'm not making 0:11:23.160 --> 0:11:26.760 any official play on this game. I really don't have 0:11:26.800 --> 0:11:29.560 a feel for it. Although I leaned towards the Texans. 0:11:29.960 --> 0:11:31.880 I mean, nine and a half points is a lot 0:11:31.880 --> 0:11:34.360 of points, and and it's not like the Chiefs now. 0:11:34.520 --> 0:11:37.040 Granted in the playoffs, they did have that blowout, but 0:11:37.320 --> 0:11:40.120 the Chiefs didn't blow people out every single week last week, 0:11:40.240 --> 0:11:41.880 if you remember, there were a lot of close games 0:11:41.880 --> 0:11:43.880 and and nine and a half points against the good team, 0:11:44.080 --> 0:11:45.880 there's too many. Now, I'm not making it a pick 0:11:46.000 --> 0:11:48.760 or anything, but you know I would lean with Brady 0:11:48.760 --> 0:11:52.040 on this one. No pick from me in game opportunity. 0:11:52.040 --> 0:11:53.839 I think if I leaned anything, i'd lean with Mikey. 0:11:53.880 --> 0:11:55.880 But no pick for me on this. Let us begin 0:11:56.000 --> 0:11:58.760 with the official best bets. Brady, we start with you. 0:11:58.840 --> 0:12:02.160 What is pick number umber one, sir? I'm going to 0:12:02.240 --> 0:12:05.680 begin with the Los Angeles Rams. And I actually made 0:12:05.720 --> 0:12:09.480 this bet back in May uh Rams plus three against 0:12:09.480 --> 0:12:12.480 the Cowboys, And much of this was based off of 0:12:12.520 --> 0:12:15.600 my feeling gil on what the public perception of these 0:12:15.600 --> 0:12:18.840 two teams is. And I think in week one, UH, 0:12:18.880 --> 0:12:22.959 starting your point of handicap with public perception is kind 0:12:22.960 --> 0:12:25.880 of a good starting point. You can dive into the personnel, 0:12:25.960 --> 0:12:28.240 the injuries and and all that type of thing. Obviously, 0:12:28.240 --> 0:12:31.200 we don't have preseason two assess this year, but I 0:12:31.200 --> 0:12:34.240 think public perception is a good starting point in Week one. 0:12:34.800 --> 0:12:37.240 And with the Cowboys, you know new head coach, a 0:12:37.360 --> 0:12:40.600 perceived upgrade from Jason Garrett, the shiny new draft pick 0:12:40.679 --> 0:12:43.800 in Ceedee Lamb, and how much talent this team has 0:12:43.840 --> 0:12:48.080 had for years, brutally under underachieving last season, and it 0:12:48.160 --> 0:12:50.880 just seems like people are giddy about America's team and 0:12:51.000 --> 0:12:55.040 are already crowning them super Bowl champion. Conversely, I think 0:12:55.080 --> 0:12:58.720 the public perception is extremely low on the Los Angeles Rams, 0:12:59.200 --> 0:13:01.720 and I also think it's very interesting that all summer 0:13:01.760 --> 0:13:05.040 long this line was pretty much frozen at three, even 0:13:05.040 --> 0:13:08.440 though it seems the public judgment of these two teams 0:13:08.480 --> 0:13:12.839 already exist. And now just finally here on opening night, 0:13:12.920 --> 0:13:14.760 we're we're starting to see some two and a half 0:13:14.920 --> 0:13:19.080 pop up, So maybe some Rams money finally coming in. Um. 0:13:19.280 --> 0:13:21.400 I think the Cowboys will be good for sure, but 0:13:21.480 --> 0:13:24.040 I think the Rams will be much better than the 0:13:24.080 --> 0:13:28.839 general consensus is. I also think Sean mcveigh's offense is 0:13:28.920 --> 0:13:32.600 going to be able to use misdirection and really take 0:13:32.640 --> 0:13:36.520 advantage of what is a pretty weak Dallas Cowboy linebacking corps. 0:13:37.080 --> 0:13:38.920 If you look at the running backs that they have 0:13:39.240 --> 0:13:42.800 in Los Angeles to replace Todd Gurley, the draft pick 0:13:42.920 --> 0:13:47.600 cam Acres, Malcolm Brown, Darryl Henderson. Cam Acres is really 0:13:47.640 --> 0:13:50.320 a stud and a lot of people would have known 0:13:50.400 --> 0:13:53.040 more about him if Florida State was any good last year. 0:13:53.120 --> 0:13:56.800 But I think those three guys will allow Jared Goff 0:13:56.960 --> 0:14:00.960 to have play action pass opportunities, and we all, I 0:14:00.960 --> 0:14:03.440 think could agree whether you like Jared Goff or not. 0:14:03.920 --> 0:14:07.000 When he's able to do play action pass, uh, that's 0:14:07.000 --> 0:14:10.439 when he's at his best. I think this game has 0:14:10.440 --> 0:14:13.200 a potential for a lot of points, but I think 0:14:13.200 --> 0:14:15.400 the Rams are kind of a sleeping dog here with 0:14:15.480 --> 0:14:19.600 everybody so high on Dallas and down on on the Rams. 0:14:19.640 --> 0:14:22.040 Also a couple of big losses in the lineup at 0:14:22.040 --> 0:14:24.120 the line of scrimmage for Dallas. I don't think this 0:14:24.240 --> 0:14:27.080 necessarily affects the point spread, but could affect the game. 0:14:27.560 --> 0:14:32.560 That's offensive tackle Ao Collins out for Dallas. Gerald McCoy 0:14:32.600 --> 0:14:35.800 of course will be out on defense, so I think 0:14:35.840 --> 0:14:37.840 the Rams could win this thing out right. I did 0:14:37.920 --> 0:14:40.840 not bet the money line, but I will see if 0:14:40.840 --> 0:14:42.480 I can win the game with the points. All right, 0:14:42.640 --> 0:14:45.640 Rams plus three extra juice, give us some extra juice there, 0:14:45.640 --> 0:14:50.000 Toddy plus three minus once when he consensus on the Rams. 0:14:50.520 --> 0:14:52.400 That is the Sunday Night game of the week. By 0:14:52.400 --> 0:14:55.200 the way, Drew DINSI, who does such great work. Whale 0:14:55.280 --> 0:14:57.240 caper art Twitter, who was on a numbers game on 0:14:57.360 --> 0:15:00.880 visa with me earlier this week, he also loves the Rams. 0:15:01.400 --> 0:15:03.160 We'll hope to get him on the Megapod at some 0:15:03.200 --> 0:15:06.520 point this year. By the way, in contrast to the 0:15:06.560 --> 0:15:09.760 Texans and the Chiefs, where the Chiefs obviously beat the 0:15:09.800 --> 0:15:11.560 Texans and they come back we just talked about on 0:15:11.640 --> 0:15:14.120 their way to winning the Super Bowl last year, Cowboys 0:15:14.160 --> 0:15:16.800 in the Rams two of the most disappointing teams last 0:15:16.840 --> 0:15:19.680 year in the NFL we were called Cowboys, ended up 0:15:19.680 --> 0:15:21.960 going eight and eight out of the playoffs, a game 0:15:22.000 --> 0:15:25.200 behind the Eagles in the NFC East and the Rams. 0:15:25.240 --> 0:15:27.360 After getting to the Super Bowl the previous year and 0:15:27.360 --> 0:15:30.120 losing to the Patriots, they finished nine and seven on 0:15:30.160 --> 0:15:32.640 the outside looking in third place behind the Niners and 0:15:32.680 --> 0:15:35.960 the Seahawks in the NFC West Todd number one from you. 0:15:36.240 --> 0:15:40.320 Well you all know that. Um. Even though some people 0:15:40.360 --> 0:15:43.840 don't think I'm that bright, I did uh have a 0:15:43.840 --> 0:15:47.480 lot of very juicy stuff last year in the National 0:15:47.520 --> 0:15:50.480 Football League and have forgotten more about gambling than some 0:15:50.520 --> 0:15:53.360 people will ever know. I won't talk about who those 0:15:53.400 --> 0:15:56.240 people maybe, but I will just say this. I was 0:15:56.320 --> 0:15:59.640 dead right on the damn Tampa Bay Buccaneers going over 0:15:59.720 --> 0:16:03.040 every damn week of the NFL season, except the funds 0:16:03.120 --> 0:16:06.720 that I held off. Didn't bet them over. Against Houston Texans, 0:16:06.720 --> 0:16:09.240 it didn't go over, and then all the rest of them, 0:16:09.360 --> 0:16:12.640 I just kept going over because we they couldn't play defense, 0:16:12.800 --> 0:16:16.400 and they had a great offensive football team. Plus Jamis 0:16:16.400 --> 0:16:19.760 Winston pitched in with a bunch of pick sixes, and 0:16:19.840 --> 0:16:23.080 it was just beautiful. It was like Gonzaga over, baby 0:16:23.600 --> 0:16:27.120 Tampa Bay Buccaneers over. And I'm gonna go with even 0:16:27.160 --> 0:16:30.080 though I've got background noise from bar Canada, I'm gonna 0:16:30.160 --> 0:16:35.520 go with the over. Why in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0:16:35.560 --> 0:16:38.240 New Orleans States game? And here's why. I've got Tom 0:16:38.480 --> 0:16:41.560 Terrific Brady at the offensive helm. That's gotta be as 0:16:41.560 --> 0:16:44.160 good as Jamis Winston. We're gonna be able to score 0:16:44.160 --> 0:16:46.720 a lot of points. I haven't. I don't believe that 0:16:46.760 --> 0:16:49.760 the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have upgraded the defensive end of 0:16:49.840 --> 0:16:52.080 the ball until I see it with my own eyes 0:16:52.280 --> 0:16:54.920 and guess who they're going against. Yeah, that's right, They're 0:16:54.920 --> 0:16:58.760 going against Drew Brees, he of the Well. Maybe not 0:16:58.880 --> 0:17:02.320 the smartest things to say in a racial pandemic situation. 0:17:02.720 --> 0:17:06.520 Let the true Brees. Let New Orleans Saints. I'll see 0:17:07.560 --> 0:17:10.720 over because I think there's gonna be points all over 0:17:10.760 --> 0:17:13.800 this football field. The consensus is forty seven and a 0:17:13.800 --> 0:17:15.920 half for forty eight, Gil, tell me what I get. 0:17:16.160 --> 0:17:20.159 I'm going over those numbers, baby, you get forty seven 0:17:20.200 --> 0:17:23.160 and a half, sir, over forty seven and a half 0:17:23.200 --> 0:17:25.480 for the Tampa Bay New Orleans game. That's an afternoon game, 0:17:25.480 --> 0:17:29.159 one of three afternoon games on Sunday week one. How 0:17:29.200 --> 0:17:31.600 many early games I hate when they do this. There 0:17:31.600 --> 0:17:34.720 are a grand total of nine early games in three 0:17:34.760 --> 0:17:36.520 afternoon games that we have a Sunday night and remember 0:17:36.520 --> 0:17:39.960 a Monday night doubleheader coming up as well. Mikey, was 0:17:40.040 --> 0:17:42.160 that pick that you gave earlier? Was that your number 0:17:42.160 --> 0:17:44.320 one best bet on the over of the Houston k 0:17:44.440 --> 0:17:46.680 C game. Why don't give us your number one best bet? 0:17:47.320 --> 0:17:50.199 It was actually my number two best bet? And what 0:17:50.359 --> 0:17:55.159 is a racial pandemic? My number one number one? You 0:17:55.200 --> 0:17:57.760 don't know what a racial pandemic is? No one knows. 0:17:57.880 --> 0:18:03.400 It's the Tennessee Titans on Monday night, the second Gil 0:18:03.440 --> 0:18:05.159 didn't give his first pick. You can't go to the 0:18:05.160 --> 0:18:11.320 second pick already. Well, I was trying here, Todd. Okay, fine, 0:18:11.520 --> 0:18:14.320 here's the thing. My number one pick happens to be. 0:18:14.440 --> 0:18:19.000 Are you ready for this? The Tennessee Titans. So because 0:18:19.080 --> 0:18:22.240 Mikey in order? Okay, but Mikey already gave a pick. 0:18:22.240 --> 0:18:23.560 So I was just asking if that it was his 0:18:23.680 --> 0:18:25.359 number one pick. Do you understand how it was his 0:18:25.440 --> 0:18:27.800 number two pick? You asked me to hold you in 0:18:27.800 --> 0:18:33.600 in Okay, Okay, you helped me in contempt, So okay, 0:18:33.640 --> 0:18:36.120 I'll follow the guy who apparently is more than just 0:18:36.200 --> 0:18:39.520 the secretary. He also can all this in contempt. I'm 0:18:39.520 --> 0:18:42.320 on Tennessee. And then Mikey, you can chime in with 0:18:42.359 --> 0:18:44.480 your number two pick to start things out. How about 0:18:44.520 --> 0:18:46.560 that or your number one pick on this? Also? You 0:18:46.560 --> 0:18:48.680 know your number two. No, you're number one, but here's 0:18:48.680 --> 0:18:51.520 my number one as well. This is both Mikey and 0:18:51.560 --> 0:18:53.679 my number one pick. We're on Tennessee. I'm on Tennessee 0:18:53.680 --> 0:18:56.000 because of the following. If you listen to a numbers game. 0:18:56.200 --> 0:18:58.120 Maybe I said it on the megapod to last year, 0:18:58.119 --> 0:18:59.480 but all last year, and I think I did this 0:18:59.520 --> 0:19:02.240 with Utah a number of times. No one loves Drew 0:19:02.320 --> 0:19:04.919 Lock more than Drew Lock. When he made good plays, 0:19:05.240 --> 0:19:07.399 that dude was the happiest guy in the world. He 0:19:07.440 --> 0:19:09.199 just thought he was a world killer. But if you 0:19:09.280 --> 0:19:11.560 go back and look at his run late last year, 0:19:11.880 --> 0:19:15.840 Drew Lock beat up on really bad past defenses in 0:19:15.880 --> 0:19:20.120 his four victories, really bad bottom quarter bottom third actually yeah, 0:19:20.160 --> 0:19:23.880 no bottom quarter checked that past defenses in the National 0:19:23.920 --> 0:19:28.400 Football League, and so competition matters. H Adam Chernoff, who 0:19:28.440 --> 0:19:31.040 was on Visa and the Show be Former and Follow 0:19:31.080 --> 0:19:34.040 the Money with Mitch Moss and PAULI Howard, he absually 0:19:34.080 --> 0:19:36.480 added to that as well, where he said not only 0:19:36.520 --> 0:19:39.119 that he was also helped Drew Lock was by yards 0:19:39.160 --> 0:19:41.359 after catch, primarily by his receivers, in a way that 0:19:41.359 --> 0:19:43.840 most quarterbacks were not. And if you look deep into 0:19:43.920 --> 0:19:47.840 his pressure stats. How does he perform under pressure? Not 0:19:48.160 --> 0:19:50.800 good at all, almost bottom of the barrel in the 0:19:50.880 --> 0:19:54.000 National Football League. So here he is now the beginning 0:19:54.040 --> 0:19:57.159 of his sophomore season. There's a von Miller problem that 0:19:57.280 --> 0:20:01.040 just happened in Denver, brutal loss for of the Denver Broncos. 0:20:01.440 --> 0:20:04.360 Tennessee was a two point dog, two and a half 0:20:04.400 --> 0:20:07.160 point dog at one point, they're a two point favorite. 0:20:07.200 --> 0:20:09.160 Guess what. I still like him as long as it's 0:20:09.200 --> 0:20:12.639 not three Tennessee Titans, who, on the other hand, to me, 0:20:12.680 --> 0:20:16.200 are criminally underrated, even after their great playoff run, having 0:20:16.240 --> 0:20:18.760 beaten the Patriots and the Ravens last year. So for me, 0:20:18.800 --> 0:20:22.320 it's Tennessee. Mikey, Yeah, I agree with you. I was 0:20:22.520 --> 0:20:27.160 listening to the president of the Todd Wishing of Fan Club, 0:20:27.200 --> 0:20:31.600 Michael Lombardi, talking about They're not gonna play Drew Lock 0:20:32.280 --> 0:20:35.120 in September the way they played Drew Lock in December 0:20:35.200 --> 0:20:38.680 last year in those meaningless games. Uh, there's too much 0:20:38.720 --> 0:20:41.880 public perception of this great Drew Lock. I agree with you, Gil, 0:20:42.400 --> 0:20:45.639 it's much different. He's gonna have to go up up 0:20:45.680 --> 0:20:48.240 against a much more well coached defense than he faced 0:20:48.600 --> 0:20:50.320