1 00:00:02,320 --> 00:00:07,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. I want to start 2 00:00:07,640 --> 00:00:10,440 Speaker 1: with the meetings that took place over the weekend in Geneva, 3 00:00:10,480 --> 00:00:12,600 Speaker 1: and I'm curious sort of how you look at the 4 00:00:12,600 --> 00:00:16,239 Speaker 1: way they unfolded and the outcome of them. Do you 5 00:00:16,239 --> 00:00:18,320 Speaker 1: see it as a positive step the agreement that has 6 00:00:18,320 --> 00:00:18,640 Speaker 1: come to. 7 00:00:18,800 --> 00:00:21,320 Speaker 2: Well, First of all, I start from a first principle, 8 00:00:21,440 --> 00:00:24,560 Speaker 2: and that is that China's been the largest and most 9 00:00:24,600 --> 00:00:28,400 Speaker 2: important disruptor in the global trade system for about three 10 00:00:28,440 --> 00:00:32,080 Speaker 2: decades right now. There's a reason why the United States 11 00:00:32,440 --> 00:00:35,520 Speaker 2: and many other countries around the world have placed terrafts 12 00:00:35,560 --> 00:00:39,839 Speaker 2: on China. China's manufactured exports in particular, is because China's 13 00:00:39,840 --> 00:00:43,040 Speaker 2: been dumping them around the world below the cost of production, 14 00:00:43,600 --> 00:00:45,760 Speaker 2: and it's been a killer for jobs both in the 15 00:00:45,840 --> 00:00:48,800 Speaker 2: United States historically in the last several decades, but also 16 00:00:48,840 --> 00:00:51,320 Speaker 2: around the world. You have a situation now where Turkey 17 00:00:51,760 --> 00:00:56,360 Speaker 2: and India and Brazil and Colombia and Mexico and Canada 18 00:00:56,360 --> 00:00:58,400 Speaker 2: and the United States and the European Union have all 19 00:00:58,440 --> 00:01:01,560 Speaker 2: put tariffs on China. So I have a degree of 20 00:01:01,600 --> 00:01:05,720 Speaker 2: sympathy for the situation that President Trump and his team inherited, 21 00:01:05,959 --> 00:01:08,920 Speaker 2: which was a situation that we left when I left 22 00:01:09,200 --> 00:01:13,039 Speaker 2: in mid January as ambassador to China President Biden a 23 00:01:13,120 --> 00:01:15,960 Speaker 2: year ago I made twenty twenty four placed one hundred 24 00:01:15,959 --> 00:01:20,160 Speaker 2: percent tariffs on Chinese evs, fifty percent on semiconductors, twenty 25 00:01:20,160 --> 00:01:22,280 Speaker 2: five percent on lithium batteries. 26 00:01:22,319 --> 00:01:24,520 Speaker 3: So the root of this problem. 27 00:01:24,200 --> 00:01:28,640 Speaker 2: Is China and Chinese trade policy. The Chinese are trying 28 00:01:28,640 --> 00:01:30,600 Speaker 2: to act now. You sought in the statements over the 29 00:01:30,640 --> 00:01:33,120 Speaker 2: weekend from Vice Premier Hurly Funk is that they're the 30 00:01:33,120 --> 00:01:37,600 Speaker 2: innocent party, that they're the victim of this trade whereby 31 00:01:37,640 --> 00:01:41,080 Speaker 2: President Trump would in fact, and that they're the responsible party, 32 00:01:41,120 --> 00:01:43,000 Speaker 2: when in fact the reality is quite different. I think 33 00:01:43,040 --> 00:01:47,720 Speaker 2: it's important to set the stage having said that these 34 00:01:47,760 --> 00:01:50,720 Speaker 2: are going to be very very difficult negotiations over the 35 00:01:50,800 --> 00:01:55,360 Speaker 2: next ninety days. I think in the end, self interest 36 00:01:55,760 --> 00:02:00,080 Speaker 2: and logic will prevail. Both sides need and agreement. Was 37 00:02:00,160 --> 00:02:03,520 Speaker 2: encouraging to hear Treasury Secretary Scott bess And say that 38 00:02:03,560 --> 00:02:06,520 Speaker 2: they had agreed in principle they don't want to couple 39 00:02:06,560 --> 00:02:09,880 Speaker 2: these two economies. Last year, we had a six hundred 40 00:02:09,880 --> 00:02:13,480 Speaker 2: and forty two billion dollars two way trade relationship in 41 00:02:13,560 --> 00:02:16,560 Speaker 2: goods and services with China. China is our third largest 42 00:02:16,600 --> 00:02:20,560 Speaker 2: trade partner. About a million American jobs depend on trade 43 00:02:20,560 --> 00:02:25,519 Speaker 2: with China. Upwards of twenty million manufacturing jobs in China 44 00:02:25,840 --> 00:02:28,680 Speaker 2: depend on trade with the United States. So neither country 45 00:02:28,720 --> 00:02:33,040 Speaker 2: can afford to sunder the economic ties and the millions 46 00:02:33,080 --> 00:02:35,480 Speaker 2: of interactions that our private sector has had with the 47 00:02:35,560 --> 00:02:37,880 Speaker 2: Chinese economy over the last forty years. 48 00:02:37,919 --> 00:02:38,560 Speaker 3: And I think in the. 49 00:02:38,639 --> 00:02:41,920 Speaker 2: End there will be a trade agreement, but getting there, 50 00:02:42,320 --> 00:02:44,280 Speaker 2: I think is going to be extraordinarily difficult. 51 00:02:45,080 --> 00:02:47,760 Speaker 1: During your tenure, you were trying to, if I may, 52 00:02:48,360 --> 00:02:52,279 Speaker 1: rehabilitate a relationship that had worsened during the first Trump administration, 53 00:02:53,520 --> 00:02:58,040 Speaker 1: develop conduits for communication, re establish economic and security ties. 54 00:03:00,320 --> 00:03:02,440 Speaker 1: When you left that post, could you've envision this turning 55 00:03:02,440 --> 00:03:03,880 Speaker 1: out the way that it has in terms of how 56 00:03:03,919 --> 00:03:06,200 Speaker 1: the rhetoric has been ratcheted up, the tariffs have been 57 00:03:06,200 --> 00:03:09,120 Speaker 1: put in place. Is it the worst case that you 58 00:03:09,200 --> 00:03:10,079 Speaker 1: envisioned or worse yet? 59 00:03:10,120 --> 00:03:13,680 Speaker 2: Still, I certainly did not anticipate one hundred and forty 60 00:03:13,720 --> 00:03:16,560 Speaker 2: five percent American terrafts on China or one hundred and 61 00:03:16,600 --> 00:03:20,160 Speaker 2: twenty five percent Chinese tariffs on American goods, and the 62 00:03:20,200 --> 00:03:23,600 Speaker 2: trade war that has resulted effectively led to a trade 63 00:03:23,600 --> 00:03:27,440 Speaker 2: embargo as of the past week, when no ships were 64 00:03:27,480 --> 00:03:31,040 Speaker 2: sailing with goods back and forth, when manufacturers couldn't export 65 00:03:31,120 --> 00:03:35,040 Speaker 2: to each other's countries, and you see the significant shortage 66 00:03:35,360 --> 00:03:38,560 Speaker 2: of goods that traditionally are important to both economies. So 67 00:03:38,560 --> 00:03:41,840 Speaker 2: I didn't expect that to happen at all. And that's 68 00:03:41,880 --> 00:03:44,640 Speaker 2: the most important thing happening in the global economy right now, 69 00:03:44,640 --> 00:03:48,160 Speaker 2: which is another reason I think that eventually both sides 70 00:03:48,280 --> 00:03:51,320 Speaker 2: have to agree to a deal to calm global markets. 71 00:03:51,560 --> 00:03:54,360 Speaker 2: We're the two largest global economies, so we have a 72 00:03:54,400 --> 00:03:56,920 Speaker 2: profound impact on the health of global economy. But we 73 00:03:57,040 --> 00:04:00,200 Speaker 2: also need the global economy to be functioning in a 74 00:04:00,320 --> 00:04:03,800 Speaker 2: rational and stable way. There's so much at stake. I 75 00:04:03,840 --> 00:04:07,080 Speaker 2: didn't see that happening. I think few people saw that happening. 76 00:04:07,120 --> 00:04:12,320 Speaker 2: You remember Canada, Trump pledged sixty percent tariffs on Chinese goods, 77 00:04:12,320 --> 00:04:13,160 Speaker 2: and people thought that. 78 00:04:13,120 --> 00:04:13,960 Speaker 3: Would be a revolution. 79 00:04:14,040 --> 00:04:16,760 Speaker 2: Will one hundred and forty five was a revolution of 80 00:04:16,800 --> 00:04:19,480 Speaker 2: a different magnitude. And I think, you know, we're not 81 00:04:19,720 --> 00:04:22,000 Speaker 2: anywhere close to being out of the woods. If the 82 00:04:22,480 --> 00:04:25,039 Speaker 2: levels now are set at thirty percent tariffs on the 83 00:04:25,040 --> 00:04:29,239 Speaker 2: American side imposed on China and ten percent by China 84 00:04:29,279 --> 00:04:32,279 Speaker 2: imposed on the United States. Those are historically high levels, 85 00:04:32,800 --> 00:04:34,560 Speaker 2: and a lot of trade will not be able to 86 00:04:34,600 --> 00:04:38,719 Speaker 2: take place. It just simply won't be economical for people 87 00:04:38,760 --> 00:04:44,159 Speaker 2: to be importing manufacturers at that level. So this is 88 00:04:44,160 --> 00:04:46,960 Speaker 2: an urgent crisis. I assume this is going to be 89 00:04:47,040 --> 00:04:49,599 Speaker 2: one of the highest priorities of the Trump administration and 90 00:04:49,680 --> 00:04:52,880 Speaker 2: of the Chinese government. But I hope that cooler heads 91 00:04:52,880 --> 00:04:55,720 Speaker 2: will prevail, and I do think for the long term 92 00:04:55,760 --> 00:04:58,000 Speaker 2: here health of the US China relationship. 93 00:04:58,440 --> 00:04:59,560 Speaker 3: Trade's a major part of it. 94 00:05:00,200 --> 00:05:04,000 Speaker 2: And a decoupling of a two global economies, of the 95 00:05:04,000 --> 00:05:06,640 Speaker 2: two economy, let me say that again. Sure, a decoupling 96 00:05:07,200 --> 00:05:11,520 Speaker 2: of the US and Chinese economies would have profoundly negative 97 00:05:11,560 --> 00:05:15,240 Speaker 2: consequences for both. So getting this right is going to 98 00:05:15,279 --> 00:05:19,640 Speaker 2: be very important. Trade negotiations normally take a year or 99 00:05:19,720 --> 00:05:23,039 Speaker 2: two or three. To try to compress this level of 100 00:05:23,080 --> 00:05:25,919 Speaker 2: complexity in the ninety days is going to be a 101 00:05:25,960 --> 00:05:28,560 Speaker 2: real negotiating challenge, but it has to be done. 102 00:05:28,720 --> 00:05:32,280 Speaker 1: You know, well, the difficulty of establishing dialogue between these 103 00:05:32,279 --> 00:05:36,719 Speaker 1: two countries. The Treasure Secretary talks a lot about a 104 00:05:36,760 --> 00:05:40,159 Speaker 1: consultative mechanism. It's called it the Geneva mechanism. Going forward 105 00:05:40,160 --> 00:05:43,400 Speaker 1: here and establishing kind of regular communication. What's the going 106 00:05:43,440 --> 00:05:45,880 Speaker 1: to take to make sure that happens. We don't yet 107 00:05:45,960 --> 00:05:47,520 Speaker 1: know when they're next going to talk or they're next 108 00:05:47,560 --> 00:05:48,160 Speaker 1: going to meet. 109 00:05:48,400 --> 00:05:51,279 Speaker 2: I think self interest is going to dictate a fast 110 00:05:51,320 --> 00:05:54,440 Speaker 2: paced of these negotiations over the next ninety days. Both 111 00:05:54,480 --> 00:05:57,800 Speaker 2: sides have committed to this consultative process, and it has 112 00:05:57,880 --> 00:06:00,560 Speaker 2: to happen at a very high level. In China, the 113 00:06:00,600 --> 00:06:04,560 Speaker 2: decision maker below President Xi Jinping is Vice Premier Huli fun, 114 00:06:04,760 --> 00:06:08,120 Speaker 2: the head of the Chinese delegation, who met Secretary of Bessant. 115 00:06:08,920 --> 00:06:13,279 Speaker 2: Secretary of Vessint has a I think a good reputation globally, 116 00:06:13,320 --> 00:06:16,240 Speaker 2: and he's the logical person to lead, along with James 117 00:06:16,360 --> 00:06:19,080 Speaker 2: and Greer, the US trade representative from the American side. 118 00:06:19,080 --> 00:06:21,320 Speaker 2: So the right people are going to be involved, but 119 00:06:21,360 --> 00:06:24,000 Speaker 2: it's going to have to be at a really quick pace, 120 00:06:24,600 --> 00:06:26,080 Speaker 2: and it's going to have to be done with a 121 00:06:26,120 --> 00:06:28,560 Speaker 2: lot of alacrity and a lot of determination to get 122 00:06:28,560 --> 00:06:30,400 Speaker 2: to the to get to the finish line. 123 00:06:30,600 --> 00:06:33,479 Speaker 1: A minute ago, you spoke about how China is portraying 124 00:06:34,200 --> 00:06:35,960 Speaker 1: not just the talks, but the way that this trade 125 00:06:36,000 --> 00:06:39,760 Speaker 1: war is unfolding. And I'm very curious sort of. 126 00:06:41,160 --> 00:06:42,440 Speaker 3: How effective you think that is. 127 00:06:42,480 --> 00:06:44,320 Speaker 1: Do they walk away from this feeling like they have 128 00:06:44,360 --> 00:06:45,920 Speaker 1: the upper hand. Do you think the world views them 129 00:06:45,920 --> 00:06:48,159 Speaker 1: as having the upper hand in these negotiations. 130 00:06:48,279 --> 00:06:51,239 Speaker 2: Well, the Chinese are the Chinese press, the nationalist press, 131 00:06:51,320 --> 00:06:53,680 Speaker 2: and to an extent, the government of China have been 132 00:06:54,279 --> 00:06:57,920 Speaker 2: have been saying that they held out, that they stood strong, 133 00:06:58,680 --> 00:07:02,359 Speaker 2: and that they faced up to the American tariff threats 134 00:07:02,720 --> 00:07:06,640 Speaker 2: and they did not blink. And they've been trumpeting that 135 00:07:06,720 --> 00:07:10,720 Speaker 2: line in the Global South. President she just hosted most 136 00:07:10,760 --> 00:07:14,240 Speaker 2: of the major leaders from South America at a major 137 00:07:14,280 --> 00:07:17,360 Speaker 2: summit he's been making. He made a trip in Southeast 138 00:07:17,400 --> 00:07:21,160 Speaker 2: Asia to the Asian country. So they clearly are signaling 139 00:07:21,240 --> 00:07:23,760 Speaker 2: to the United States, you're not going to bully us. 140 00:07:24,200 --> 00:07:26,800 Speaker 2: We have other options. You've seen a big increase in 141 00:07:26,880 --> 00:07:30,880 Speaker 2: Chinese manufactured exports to their neighbors in the Southeast Asian 142 00:07:32,480 --> 00:07:37,800 Speaker 2: Organization ASIAN and so they're very definitely standing up has 143 00:07:37,840 --> 00:07:42,680 Speaker 2: become a nationalist, nationalist issue. When Vice President JD. Vance 144 00:07:42,800 --> 00:07:48,920 Speaker 2: referred to the Chinese as peasants an unfortunate term under 145 00:07:48,920 --> 00:07:50,040 Speaker 2: any circumstances. 146 00:07:50,040 --> 00:07:52,200 Speaker 3: But that really lit a fire in. 147 00:07:52,200 --> 00:07:55,120 Speaker 2: Chinese social media, which is a force in Chinese society. 148 00:07:55,160 --> 00:07:58,200 Speaker 2: So yes, the government of China is trying to portray 149 00:07:58,240 --> 00:08:02,400 Speaker 2: itself as the steady, solid country that stood up to 150 00:08:02,400 --> 00:08:05,520 Speaker 2: the United States. I think that China needs a deal too. 151 00:08:05,720 --> 00:08:08,960 Speaker 2: There's a reason why the Chinese met with Secretary Vessant. 152 00:08:09,480 --> 00:08:12,880 Speaker 2: The economy is slowing down. If they grew by five 153 00:08:12,920 --> 00:08:16,320 Speaker 2: percent in twenty twenty four, well most economists would say 154 00:08:16,320 --> 00:08:17,640 Speaker 2: they probably grew by less. 155 00:08:18,000 --> 00:08:20,360 Speaker 3: They're facing lower. 156 00:08:20,360 --> 00:08:23,040 Speaker 2: GDP growth for the next five to ten years. They 157 00:08:23,080 --> 00:08:26,080 Speaker 2: have a property crisis that continues to linger. 158 00:08:26,480 --> 00:08:28,000 Speaker 3: They have a consumption problem. 159 00:08:28,040 --> 00:08:31,440 Speaker 2: The Chinese people are not consuming in a rational way, 160 00:08:31,480 --> 00:08:34,280 Speaker 2: sitting on their money because of the uncertainty of the 161 00:08:34,320 --> 00:08:38,719 Speaker 2: investment environment in China itself. They have strength in the 162 00:08:38,800 --> 00:08:41,960 Speaker 2: Chinese economy and normous strengths, but they also have these weaknesses. 163 00:08:42,840 --> 00:08:46,920 Speaker 2: China could not afford a sustained trade war with the 164 00:08:47,000 --> 00:08:49,360 Speaker 2: United States. That's why they were at the table, and 165 00:08:49,400 --> 00:08:51,680 Speaker 2: that's why they've agreed to a deal in ninety days. 166 00:08:52,000 --> 00:08:55,040 Speaker 1: What did you learn being there about that country's capacity 167 00:08:55,080 --> 00:08:57,560 Speaker 1: to whether something like this so you're saying they couldn't 168 00:08:57,559 --> 00:09:00,880 Speaker 1: sustain it long term, But give us some site into 169 00:09:01,160 --> 00:09:04,000 Speaker 1: how they had been preparing for a moment like this 170 00:09:04,040 --> 00:09:06,520 Speaker 1: one where there would be this kind of geopolitical test. 171 00:09:06,920 --> 00:09:10,560 Speaker 2: I was in China, of course, during the presidential election, 172 00:09:10,679 --> 00:09:13,200 Speaker 2: our presidential election of November twenty twenty four, and as 173 00:09:13,280 --> 00:09:16,000 Speaker 2: soon as President Trump was declared the winner in that 174 00:09:16,040 --> 00:09:18,520 Speaker 2: election and prepared to take office, the Chinese began to 175 00:09:18,520 --> 00:09:21,120 Speaker 2: prepare for a trade war. They saw it coming. They 176 00:09:21,120 --> 00:09:24,600 Speaker 2: had listened to Candidate Trump. They've did a lot of 177 00:09:24,640 --> 00:09:28,320 Speaker 2: remobilization of their supply chain to try to stock up 178 00:09:28,320 --> 00:09:32,000 Speaker 2: on minerals and on technologies that were important to them, 179 00:09:32,679 --> 00:09:37,280 Speaker 2: and they expected this. They also have an authoritarian system 180 00:09:37,280 --> 00:09:40,240 Speaker 2: of government, and so it's one man rule, and President 181 00:09:40,280 --> 00:09:44,560 Speaker 2: Hijinping whatever he says goes. He prepared the Chinese people 182 00:09:44,679 --> 00:09:47,720 Speaker 2: for a long struggle with the United States. And you know, 183 00:09:47,880 --> 00:09:52,480 Speaker 2: China is like the United States. People are patriotic about 184 00:09:52,480 --> 00:09:56,880 Speaker 2: their country. I would say there's a highly nationalist element 185 00:09:57,000 --> 00:10:00,839 Speaker 2: in Chinese social media and their undreds of millions of 186 00:10:00,920 --> 00:10:04,640 Speaker 2: Chinese involved in Chinese social media. So this was a 187 00:10:04,679 --> 00:10:07,320 Speaker 2: moment where the leadership said, we have to stand strong 188 00:10:07,360 --> 00:10:09,640 Speaker 2: and defend our country and they think they've done that. 189 00:10:10,240 --> 00:10:12,640 Speaker 1: Do you have a clear sense of what the US, 190 00:10:12,679 --> 00:10:15,840 Speaker 1: what the Trump administration wants this relationship to be like. 191 00:10:16,120 --> 00:10:19,320 Speaker 1: I detect kind of a change in rhetoric where you 192 00:10:19,400 --> 00:10:22,480 Speaker 1: have the US Trade Representative Jamison Greer a few days 193 00:10:22,480 --> 00:10:26,079 Speaker 1: ago County getting very negative terms, and then President Trump 194 00:10:26,120 --> 00:10:28,960 Speaker 1: after this deal was announced saying that the relationship is 195 00:10:29,040 --> 00:10:33,320 Speaker 1: very good. What does the US want this relationship to 196 00:10:33,320 --> 00:10:33,640 Speaker 1: be like? 197 00:10:34,080 --> 00:10:37,040 Speaker 2: At this moment, I think we have not seen a 198 00:10:37,200 --> 00:10:41,160 Speaker 2: full explanation or articulation of what President Trump wants to 199 00:10:41,200 --> 00:10:44,920 Speaker 2: do writ large in China policy. Because it's the most 200 00:10:44,960 --> 00:10:48,120 Speaker 2: important relationship that the United States has around the world, 201 00:10:48,480 --> 00:10:52,160 Speaker 2: it's also the most complicated and problematic for the United States. 202 00:10:52,559 --> 00:10:55,040 Speaker 2: I do sense as I listened to Secretary of Rubio 203 00:10:55,160 --> 00:10:59,600 Speaker 2: Secretary hag Seth, that they on issues where the Biden 204 00:10:59,600 --> 00:11:03,680 Speaker 2: administer was very strong, agree that we have to stand 205 00:11:03,760 --> 00:11:09,760 Speaker 2: up for our policy to inhibit a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, 206 00:11:10,320 --> 00:11:13,040 Speaker 2: that we have to stand up against what the Chinese, 207 00:11:13,120 --> 00:11:16,400 Speaker 2: the PLA, the People's Liberation Army is doing to try 208 00:11:16,440 --> 00:11:19,560 Speaker 2: to intimidate the Philippines and the South China Sea or 209 00:11:19,640 --> 00:11:22,360 Speaker 2: Japan in the East China Sea, that we have to 210 00:11:22,840 --> 00:11:26,079 Speaker 2: be supportive of India in its border struggle along the 211 00:11:26,120 --> 00:11:31,199 Speaker 2: Himalayas border disagreement with China, and certainly have to oppose 212 00:11:31,280 --> 00:11:34,120 Speaker 2: what the Chinese have done to be such an important 213 00:11:34,160 --> 00:11:38,120 Speaker 2: source of microelectronics and dual use goods for the Russian 214 00:11:38,160 --> 00:11:41,800 Speaker 2: defense industrial base as they prosecute this war in Ukraine. 215 00:11:41,840 --> 00:11:45,000 Speaker 2: So on the national security side, it seems to me 216 00:11:45,040 --> 00:11:47,880 Speaker 2: there's going to be continuity with where President Biden and 217 00:11:48,000 --> 00:11:51,800 Speaker 2: our team left off. I think the bigger question mark is, 218 00:11:51,840 --> 00:11:53,880 Speaker 2: and we're seeing it play out in real time right now, 219 00:11:54,040 --> 00:11:57,760 Speaker 2: are on tariffs. On the future of the economic relationship. 220 00:11:58,800 --> 00:12:02,640 Speaker 2: I was involved heavily involved with the American business community, 221 00:12:02,800 --> 00:12:06,400 Speaker 2: with the American farm and ranch and fisheries community. You know, 222 00:12:06,440 --> 00:12:09,760 Speaker 2: we have tens of thousands of American businesses doing business 223 00:12:09,760 --> 00:12:13,120 Speaker 2: in China. It is our third largest trade partner. A 224 00:12:13,160 --> 00:12:17,120 Speaker 2: lot of American companies depend on either importing or from 225 00:12:17,240 --> 00:12:22,440 Speaker 2: China exporting to China, and so I think there you 226 00:12:22,840 --> 00:12:25,360 Speaker 2: obviously have to follow the comments of President Trump. He's 227 00:12:25,360 --> 00:12:29,320 Speaker 2: a very transparent leader, and he's very transactional, and he 228 00:12:29,400 --> 00:12:32,360 Speaker 2: has always spoken about President Xi Jinping with a great 229 00:12:32,400 --> 00:12:36,000 Speaker 2: deal of respect. He's been very solicitous of him. So 230 00:12:36,600 --> 00:12:39,240 Speaker 2: it seems to me that President Trump is heading in 231 00:12:39,280 --> 00:12:43,840 Speaker 2: a direction on economics to be more closely engaged and 232 00:12:43,880 --> 00:12:47,960 Speaker 2: to continue a full throated economic relationship between the two countries. 233 00:12:48,400 --> 00:12:50,520 Speaker 2: I actually think that would be a good thing if 234 00:12:50,559 --> 00:12:54,640 Speaker 2: we continue to trade with China and try to carry 235 00:12:54,640 --> 00:12:57,640 Speaker 2: on this level of economic activity. At the same time 236 00:12:57,679 --> 00:13:01,439 Speaker 2: that we have to compete with China both on technology, 237 00:13:01,760 --> 00:13:05,920 Speaker 2: whether it's AI quantum computing, biotech, or in some of 238 00:13:05,920 --> 00:13:08,440 Speaker 2: those national security issues that I talked about, where the 239 00:13:08,480 --> 00:13:12,240 Speaker 2: PLA has been extraordinarily aggressive and we have to find 240 00:13:12,240 --> 00:13:14,079 Speaker 2: a way to deter them. 241 00:13:14,480 --> 00:13:17,760 Speaker 1: Fentanyl is something that you worked on quite a bit 242 00:13:17,840 --> 00:13:19,760 Speaker 1: when you were there. A point that you made, if 243 00:13:19,760 --> 00:13:24,920 Speaker 1: I remember rightly, is sanctioning China on that front isn't 244 00:13:24,920 --> 00:13:26,200 Speaker 1: going to be enough. There has to be some kind 245 00:13:26,200 --> 00:13:30,439 Speaker 1: of collaboration when it comes to security and getting US 246 00:13:30,520 --> 00:13:33,360 Speaker 1: law enforcement more involved in making sure that the chemicals 247 00:13:33,440 --> 00:13:36,679 Speaker 1: involved in the preparation and manufacturer of fentanyl can't do it. 248 00:13:37,720 --> 00:13:40,480 Speaker 1: Do you have a clear sentence on this specific topic 249 00:13:40,600 --> 00:13:42,960 Speaker 1: of what the Biden administration wants They do talk about 250 00:13:43,000 --> 00:13:44,760 Speaker 1: it a lot clear that it's something that they want 251 00:13:44,760 --> 00:13:48,320 Speaker 1: to negotiate over these next ninety days and beyond, what 252 00:13:48,440 --> 00:13:50,720 Speaker 1: are they hoping will change When it comes to the 253 00:13:50,720 --> 00:13:51,600 Speaker 1: production of fentanyl. 254 00:13:51,840 --> 00:13:54,720 Speaker 2: I think President Trump's been right to say that fentanyl's 255 00:13:54,760 --> 00:13:57,520 Speaker 2: one of the top issues in this relationship because death 256 00:13:57,559 --> 00:14:01,720 Speaker 2: by overdose in the States is a public health crisis. 257 00:14:01,760 --> 00:14:04,000 Speaker 2: That's the majority, it's the leading cause of death of 258 00:14:04,040 --> 00:14:07,840 Speaker 2: Americans eighteen to forty nine. The facts are that the 259 00:14:07,840 --> 00:14:11,199 Speaker 2: majority of the precursor chemicals that make up the synthetic 260 00:14:11,240 --> 00:14:13,520 Speaker 2: opioid come from the Chinese black market, not from the 261 00:14:13,600 --> 00:14:16,800 Speaker 2: Chinese government, but the black market in China. So China's 262 00:14:16,800 --> 00:14:21,400 Speaker 2: an authoritarian country, has an authoritarian government, it has the 263 00:14:21,440 --> 00:14:25,920 Speaker 2: capacity to stop the flow of these precursor chemicals. President 264 00:14:25,960 --> 00:14:30,160 Speaker 2: Biden made this a top priority. Over the last year 265 00:14:30,160 --> 00:14:32,360 Speaker 2: and a half of the administration were able to convince 266 00:14:32,960 --> 00:14:39,520 Speaker 2: the government of China to arrest fabricators of these precursor chemicals, 267 00:14:39,560 --> 00:14:42,400 Speaker 2: to shut down online platforms. We began to expand our 268 00:14:42,480 --> 00:14:46,400 Speaker 2: law enforcement cooperation, and I think the Trump administration has 269 00:14:46,440 --> 00:14:49,520 Speaker 2: accepted that and now try to take it further. And 270 00:14:49,520 --> 00:14:53,040 Speaker 2: I think their right to do that. You know that 271 00:14:53,080 --> 00:14:56,640 Speaker 2: the thirty percent tariffs on China right now as it 272 00:14:56,840 --> 00:15:00,840 Speaker 2: was of May fourteenth, ten percent of the recarp tariffs 273 00:15:01,320 --> 00:15:04,400 Speaker 2: that are placed on every country, twenty percent are for feentanyl, 274 00:15:04,760 --> 00:15:06,360 Speaker 2: And I think that is a good reminder of the 275 00:15:06,440 --> 00:15:08,960 Speaker 2: Chinese there's going to be a price to pay if 276 00:15:08,960 --> 00:15:11,640 Speaker 2: they don't cooperate with the United States on this major 277 00:15:11,640 --> 00:15:12,960 Speaker 2: health crisis that we're facing. 278 00:15:13,200 --> 00:15:15,280 Speaker 3: So I think it's a major priority for President Trump. 279 00:15:16,280 --> 00:15:18,120 Speaker 1: The US is going to have a new ambassador in 280 00:15:18,160 --> 00:15:20,400 Speaker 1: Beijing soon, David Perdue has been confirmed. 281 00:15:21,320 --> 00:15:21,880 Speaker 3: I wonder if. 282 00:15:21,840 --> 00:15:24,680 Speaker 1: You've spoken with him, exchanged messages with him, and what 283 00:15:24,800 --> 00:15:28,200 Speaker 1: counsel you would give him about the role itself and 284 00:15:28,240 --> 00:15:32,200 Speaker 1: how you found the ways in which you found you 285 00:15:32,200 --> 00:15:33,760 Speaker 1: could be the most successful successful. 286 00:15:34,200 --> 00:15:38,960 Speaker 2: Well, I have spoken with him, and I told him, 287 00:15:39,000 --> 00:15:42,080 Speaker 2: and I said publicly actually on American and social media 288 00:15:42,080 --> 00:15:45,920 Speaker 2: on x that I congratulated him on his appointment, that 289 00:15:45,960 --> 00:15:47,960 Speaker 2: I'd help him in any way I could, and I 290 00:15:48,000 --> 00:15:50,680 Speaker 2: wish him the best of success because we have so 291 00:15:50,760 --> 00:15:54,920 Speaker 2: much writing on this policy with China that we've got 292 00:15:54,960 --> 00:15:57,800 Speaker 2: to be successful, and I'm rooting for his success. I 293 00:15:57,880 --> 00:16:01,320 Speaker 2: think he's very well placed to be. He worked in 294 00:16:01,400 --> 00:16:04,560 Speaker 2: business in Hong Kong and Singapore. He's been to China 295 00:16:04,680 --> 00:16:06,680 Speaker 2: as a member of the Senate. He was on Foreign 296 00:16:06,760 --> 00:16:10,520 Speaker 2: Relations and Armed Services committees, which are the two relevant committees, 297 00:16:10,560 --> 00:16:13,960 Speaker 2: two of them for China, and has a clear sense 298 00:16:13,960 --> 00:16:16,920 Speaker 2: of what he wants to do. So he's going to 299 00:16:16,920 --> 00:16:19,320 Speaker 2: go out very soon and he's going to take the 300 00:16:19,360 --> 00:16:23,359 Speaker 2: reins of the embassy that I left in mid January, 301 00:16:23,400 --> 00:16:24,760 Speaker 2: and I do wish him well. 302 00:16:24,800 --> 00:16:28,000 Speaker 3: It's a tough job. I found out. It's not for 303 00:16:28,040 --> 00:16:28,760 Speaker 3: the feint of heart. 304 00:16:29,640 --> 00:16:34,200 Speaker 2: We have with China the most competitive relationship of any 305 00:16:34,200 --> 00:16:36,520 Speaker 2: country in the world, if you think about it in quadrants. 306 00:16:37,560 --> 00:16:41,520 Speaker 2: China's our leading competitor for military influence and military power 307 00:16:41,520 --> 00:16:45,040 Speaker 2: in the Indo Pacific, our leading competitor on the major 308 00:16:45,080 --> 00:16:50,200 Speaker 2: technologies AI, biotech, quantum computing that will form the basis 309 00:16:50,200 --> 00:16:53,440 Speaker 2: of the future of the global economy. Our third largest 310 00:16:53,440 --> 00:16:56,360 Speaker 2: trade partner with which we have a very problematic trade 311 00:16:56,400 --> 00:16:59,520 Speaker 2: and teriff relationship. And obviously, and maybe this is the 312 00:16:59,520 --> 00:17:03,040 Speaker 2: most important part of it, we believe in human freedom 313 00:17:03,360 --> 00:17:06,320 Speaker 2: and human rights, and the Chinese government does not practice that. 314 00:17:06,640 --> 00:17:08,879 Speaker 2: There are major violators of the human rights of their 315 00:17:08,920 --> 00:17:12,520 Speaker 2: own people, and so there's so much writing on this relationship, 316 00:17:13,000 --> 00:17:15,479 Speaker 2: and the American ambassador has to be the point person 317 00:17:15,960 --> 00:17:19,360 Speaker 2: in competing with China and helping to strengthen the American 318 00:17:19,400 --> 00:17:22,000 Speaker 2: position on those issues. But at the same time, and 319 00:17:22,040 --> 00:17:26,560 Speaker 2: this makes it so complicated, David, is that China's our 320 00:17:26,600 --> 00:17:30,280 Speaker 2: largest and strongest competitor, but there are certain issues where 321 00:17:30,359 --> 00:17:33,399 Speaker 2: China is one of our most important partners. We're the 322 00:17:33,400 --> 00:17:36,040 Speaker 2: two stewards of the global economy. We're seeing that play 323 00:17:36,040 --> 00:17:38,920 Speaker 2: out right now in the tariff issue. On climate change, 324 00:17:38,960 --> 00:17:42,400 Speaker 2: we're the two leading emitters of carbon and so President 325 00:17:42,400 --> 00:17:45,399 Speaker 2: Biden felt very important to work with China. If we 326 00:17:45,440 --> 00:17:47,640 Speaker 2: want to do anything about fentanyl, we've got to work 327 00:17:47,720 --> 00:17:51,200 Speaker 2: with China to make that happen. So I always thought 328 00:17:51,240 --> 00:17:53,840 Speaker 2: it was it wasn't a fifty to fifty balance. I 329 00:17:53,880 --> 00:17:56,439 Speaker 2: actually thought I spent about eighty percent of my time 330 00:17:56,840 --> 00:18:00,240 Speaker 2: on the competitive edge with China about twenty percent non 331 00:18:00,280 --> 00:18:02,080 Speaker 2: cooperative matters. 332 00:18:02,119 --> 00:18:03,920 Speaker 3: And that I thought was the right ratio. 333 00:18:04,440 --> 00:18:07,200 Speaker 2: But that makes for a very complicated relationship where you've 334 00:18:07,200 --> 00:18:12,080 Speaker 2: got to both defend and push and resist on one hand, 335 00:18:12,600 --> 00:18:14,199 Speaker 2: and then you've got to stretch out your hand to 336 00:18:14,280 --> 00:18:16,880 Speaker 2: work with them and shake their hand on the other 337 00:18:17,480 --> 00:18:21,639 Speaker 2: that's the reality of being the American ambassador to China. 338 00:18:21,680 --> 00:18:25,959 Speaker 2: So I wish now Ambassador Purdue former Senator David Perdue. 339 00:18:25,960 --> 00:18:27,840 Speaker 3: Well, I think he's a very good man for this job. 340 00:18:28,640 --> 00:18:30,160 Speaker 1: Wrapping up before I kind of pull back and ask 341 00:18:30,200 --> 00:18:33,960 Speaker 1: you some broader questions, I wonder how you felt about 342 00:18:33,960 --> 00:18:36,160 Speaker 1: the relationship between the US and China when you left. 343 00:18:36,640 --> 00:18:39,120 Speaker 1: And I mean nothing by this, but do you ever 344 00:18:39,200 --> 00:18:41,840 Speaker 1: think that the work that you've done has been squandered 345 00:18:41,920 --> 00:18:43,760 Speaker 1: or is being squandered as a result of what's happened 346 00:18:43,760 --> 00:18:45,320 Speaker 1: over the last few months. 347 00:18:45,880 --> 00:18:50,800 Speaker 2: Well, I arrived in China, was sworn in in twenty 348 00:18:50,840 --> 00:18:55,679 Speaker 2: twenty one, and arrived a couple months later hawkish about 349 00:18:55,680 --> 00:18:58,679 Speaker 2: the relationship on national security grounds because China is this 350 00:18:59,480 --> 00:19:04,520 Speaker 2: very competitor impinging on a lot of American interests in 351 00:19:04,560 --> 00:19:08,440 Speaker 2: the Indo Pacific. And I think I left China more hawkish. 352 00:19:08,480 --> 00:19:08,680 Speaker 3: Yeah. 353 00:19:08,680 --> 00:19:11,840 Speaker 2: I saw the reality of the relationship and the cynical 354 00:19:12,040 --> 00:19:15,880 Speaker 2: nature of the government of China, and of the duplicity 355 00:19:15,960 --> 00:19:19,720 Speaker 2: on some issues of the government of China, the fact 356 00:19:19,760 --> 00:19:22,480 Speaker 2: that we would make an agreement and then it wasn't honored, 357 00:19:23,000 --> 00:19:25,480 Speaker 2: and that was very much true of the Trump Phase 358 00:19:25,520 --> 00:19:29,120 Speaker 2: one teriff Agreement of twenty twenty, which we inherited, China 359 00:19:31,320 --> 00:19:36,080 Speaker 2: was obligated to spend several hundred billion dollars in purchases 360 00:19:36,119 --> 00:19:39,119 Speaker 2: of American agricultural products. Didn't get close to that. I 361 00:19:39,200 --> 00:19:42,159 Speaker 2: monitored that very carefully when I was ambassador. So I 362 00:19:42,160 --> 00:19:45,560 Speaker 2: think this is a long term structural rivalry. We're the 363 00:19:45,600 --> 00:19:51,320 Speaker 2: two strongest economies, the two strongest militaries, were the two 364 00:19:51,320 --> 00:19:54,600 Speaker 2: countries with the greatest global reach. We're competing for global power. 365 00:19:55,000 --> 00:19:57,960 Speaker 2: I don't think that will change no matter who's president, 366 00:19:58,560 --> 00:20:01,080 Speaker 2: and so we've got to steal our else for the 367 00:20:01,119 --> 00:20:05,080 Speaker 2: next decade or two to a historic competition with China, 368 00:20:05,119 --> 00:20:09,320 Speaker 2: and China right now is stronger than any adversary of 369 00:20:09,320 --> 00:20:11,480 Speaker 2: the United States has ever faced in the history of 370 00:20:11,480 --> 00:20:15,400 Speaker 2: the United States, going back to the Revolutionary War, including 371 00:20:15,400 --> 00:20:18,680 Speaker 2: the First and Second World Wars, including the Cold War. 372 00:20:19,400 --> 00:20:20,520 Speaker 3: The Soviet Union in. 373 00:20:20,480 --> 00:20:24,320 Speaker 2: Its heyday was not as strong as China is today. 374 00:20:24,760 --> 00:20:28,000 Speaker 2: And so we've got to face that competition. But here's 375 00:20:28,040 --> 00:20:30,520 Speaker 2: the catch. We've got to do it in such a 376 00:20:30,520 --> 00:20:33,440 Speaker 2: way that we don't end up in a war, because 377 00:20:33,480 --> 00:20:36,040 Speaker 2: a war would be catastrophic for the world and for 378 00:20:36,080 --> 00:20:39,240 Speaker 2: both countries. Obviously, given the power of both of our countries, 379 00:20:39,520 --> 00:20:43,600 Speaker 2: that makes for an enormously complicated relationship. And there's no 380 00:20:44,040 --> 00:20:47,720 Speaker 2: other alternative but to be engaged with the Chinese leadership, 381 00:20:47,920 --> 00:20:50,920 Speaker 2: to talk to them, as Secretary Vessent did this past 382 00:20:50,960 --> 00:20:54,680 Speaker 2: week on the teriff issue, but on a thousand other fronts. 383 00:20:54,720 --> 00:20:58,440 Speaker 2: Be engaging them and talking to them so you can compete. 384 00:20:58,880 --> 00:21:02,080 Speaker 2: We can cooperate where we can, but we avoid a 385 00:21:02,119 --> 00:21:05,560 Speaker 2: conflict which in the future would be an absolute catastrophe. 386 00:21:05,760 --> 00:21:09,480 Speaker 2: That makes for a very difficult and complex job. 387 00:21:10,440 --> 00:21:13,240 Speaker 1: I want to ask you how international fears have changed. 388 00:21:13,640 --> 00:21:16,800 Speaker 1: And I've been traveling in recent months. I was in 389 00:21:16,840 --> 00:21:19,240 Speaker 1: Brazil for the G twenty and kind of noticed in 390 00:21:19,280 --> 00:21:24,480 Speaker 1: real time the way that long standing relationships were changing physically. 391 00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:26,840 Speaker 1: Different countries were meeting with other countries in the way. 392 00:21:26,760 --> 00:21:27,879 Speaker 3: They might not a before. 393 00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:31,520 Speaker 1: I covered the election in Canada, and of course before 394 00:21:32,000 --> 00:21:35,360 Speaker 1: Mark Karney won that election, he reached out to kind 395 00:21:35,359 --> 00:21:39,240 Speaker 1: of solidify or re establish relationships that had with other 396 00:21:39,320 --> 00:21:43,399 Speaker 1: allies besides the United States. There seems to be a 397 00:21:43,440 --> 00:21:47,000 Speaker 1: message from this administration Washington that there can be bombast 398 00:21:47,040 --> 00:21:51,560 Speaker 1: and heated rhetoric radically increased tariffs, but then you can 399 00:21:51,560 --> 00:21:53,760 Speaker 1: flip the switch back and things can go back to normal. 400 00:21:54,280 --> 00:21:57,400 Speaker 1: And drawing on your experience as a diplomat for many decades, 401 00:21:57,640 --> 00:21:59,960 Speaker 1: do you think that that's folly or that that's act. 402 00:22:00,760 --> 00:22:02,960 Speaker 1: There will be no damage done and things can go 403 00:22:03,080 --> 00:22:04,600 Speaker 1: back to the way they were. When it comes to 404 00:22:04,640 --> 00:22:07,040 Speaker 1: a relationship that the US has with its allies. 405 00:22:07,400 --> 00:22:10,040 Speaker 2: I think we're at a moment of great transformation in 406 00:22:10,080 --> 00:22:14,800 Speaker 2: the global power picture were alliance is shifting very rapidly. 407 00:22:15,480 --> 00:22:19,520 Speaker 2: You see that China and Russia, in Iran and North 408 00:22:19,600 --> 00:22:22,680 Speaker 2: Korea and Venezuela and Nicaragua are kind of all working 409 00:22:22,680 --> 00:22:27,680 Speaker 2: together authoritarian dictatorships, and they're working together to try to 410 00:22:27,720 --> 00:22:30,560 Speaker 2: cut down the power of the United States, reduce it 411 00:22:30,600 --> 00:22:34,280 Speaker 2: in the world, and of our democratic allies. And I 412 00:22:34,359 --> 00:22:38,240 Speaker 2: always felt working for President Biden, one of our strongest 413 00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:42,120 Speaker 2: suits is that we have reinforced our alliances, our alliance 414 00:22:42,160 --> 00:22:45,919 Speaker 2: with NATO and the European Union countries, our alliances with 415 00:22:46,040 --> 00:22:50,280 Speaker 2: Japan and South Korea and the Philippines and Thailand and Australia, 416 00:22:50,440 --> 00:22:53,919 Speaker 2: five military alliances that are the bedrock of our power. 417 00:22:54,560 --> 00:22:56,240 Speaker 3: And as I left China. 418 00:22:56,840 --> 00:22:59,040 Speaker 2: One of the lessons that was very clear in my 419 00:22:59,160 --> 00:23:02,600 Speaker 2: mind is that in this day and age, despite the 420 00:23:02,640 --> 00:23:04,840 Speaker 2: fact that we are still the strongest power in the world, 421 00:23:05,000 --> 00:23:07,359 Speaker 2: you do need friends and allies in the world, and 422 00:23:07,400 --> 00:23:11,919 Speaker 2: that we are so much stronger politically, diplomatically, militarily and 423 00:23:12,080 --> 00:23:16,199 Speaker 2: economically if we think about working closely with allies. And 424 00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:18,720 Speaker 2: I do think that's the greatest mistake that President Trump 425 00:23:18,720 --> 00:23:22,560 Speaker 2: has made in his first four months in office. 426 00:23:23,080 --> 00:23:23,760 Speaker 3: What has he done. 427 00:23:24,680 --> 00:23:28,080 Speaker 2: He suggested that Canada repeatedly should be the fifty first 428 00:23:28,080 --> 00:23:30,400 Speaker 2: state of the United States, and you can see how 429 00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:35,680 Speaker 2: Canada and Canadians have reacted to that made He's been 430 00:23:35,720 --> 00:23:40,239 Speaker 2: heavily critical of Denmark for its two century rule in 431 00:23:40,320 --> 00:23:44,359 Speaker 2: Greenland in an attempt to convince the Danes to hand 432 00:23:44,400 --> 00:23:46,840 Speaker 2: over Greenland, and the Greenlarners have a lot to say 433 00:23:46,840 --> 00:23:49,800 Speaker 2: about this and are resistant to the United States. 434 00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:51,800 Speaker 3: Here are two NATO allies. 435 00:23:51,880 --> 00:23:55,040 Speaker 2: That are among the strongest and most faithful allies the 436 00:23:55,160 --> 00:23:58,399 Speaker 2: United States has had, and yet he has driven them away. 437 00:23:58,960 --> 00:24:02,160 Speaker 2: And at the same time, the trade war. If Donald 438 00:24:02,200 --> 00:24:07,560 Speaker 2: Trump had faced China down but had not placed high 439 00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:12,640 Speaker 2: tariffs on Japan South Korea, the European Union, Canada, and Mexico. 440 00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:16,240 Speaker 2: All those countries would have been on our side. 441 00:24:16,080 --> 00:24:20,000 Speaker 3: Of the table have the same trade and tariff. 442 00:24:19,640 --> 00:24:23,320 Speaker 2: Problems with China that we do, but they weren't compelled, 443 00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:27,240 Speaker 2: they weren't interested in doing that once they were placed 444 00:24:27,520 --> 00:24:30,160 Speaker 2: under the same tariff regime that China was placed under. 445 00:24:30,560 --> 00:24:34,639 Speaker 2: And so I fear that the administration really has a 446 00:24:34,680 --> 00:24:35,359 Speaker 2: blind spot. 447 00:24:35,680 --> 00:24:37,679 Speaker 3: They think the United States can go it alone in 448 00:24:37,680 --> 00:24:40,040 Speaker 3: the world. We can't. We need other. 449 00:24:39,920 --> 00:24:43,960 Speaker 2: Allies to support our power across every dimension of power. 450 00:24:44,480 --> 00:24:48,240 Speaker 2: I started as an intern in nineteen eighty with the 451 00:24:48,280 --> 00:24:50,680 Speaker 2: State Department, for That's how old I am forty five 452 00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:55,119 Speaker 2: years ago this summer. And that's probably the fundamental lesson 453 00:24:55,119 --> 00:24:58,320 Speaker 2: I learned when I was ambassador at NATO, when I 454 00:24:58,520 --> 00:25:04,000 Speaker 2: was under secretarist for Condoleeza Rice, is that despite our 455 00:25:04,240 --> 00:25:07,080 Speaker 2: enormous power, and I'm proud of that and want us 456 00:25:07,119 --> 00:25:09,880 Speaker 2: to build our power base, we need friends and allies 457 00:25:09,920 --> 00:25:12,960 Speaker 2: in the world. And so that's an own goal by 458 00:25:12,960 --> 00:25:15,880 Speaker 2: the Trump administration. It's one that they've got to reverse 459 00:25:15,960 --> 00:25:18,720 Speaker 2: if they hope to be effective, because the Chinese are 460 00:25:18,840 --> 00:25:21,960 Speaker 2: forming a block, and that block with Russia run in 461 00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:24,760 Speaker 2: North Korea is a strong block. You need something to 462 00:25:24,840 --> 00:25:27,399 Speaker 2: counter it. It's called NATO, and it is called the 463 00:25:27,440 --> 00:25:28,440 Speaker 2: East Asian Allies. 464 00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:33,359 Speaker 1: We talk a lot in business and economics about American exceptionalism. 465 00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:35,639 Speaker 1: I know that that's a phrase that's used in international 466 00:25:35,760 --> 00:25:38,239 Speaker 1: fairs as well. And there is the sphere in some 467 00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:41,720 Speaker 1: corners that it's waning where it could go away. 468 00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:44,000 Speaker 3: Is that a real fear that you have as well? 469 00:25:44,080 --> 00:25:46,000 Speaker 1: Kind of picking up what we were talking about about 470 00:25:46,000 --> 00:25:49,439 Speaker 1: the relationship with allies alienating allies. Do you worry that 471 00:25:49,480 --> 00:25:52,200 Speaker 1: the uniqueness of the United States is in jeopardy? 472 00:25:52,680 --> 00:25:57,040 Speaker 2: America is an exceptional country. It's exceptional because of the 473 00:25:57,040 --> 00:26:01,879 Speaker 2: way we've acted around the world. We've built ourselves around 474 00:26:01,920 --> 00:26:06,320 Speaker 2: the world. We're the country that promised free trade and 475 00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:08,720 Speaker 2: fair trade with the rest of the world, not high 476 00:26:08,800 --> 00:26:13,240 Speaker 2: protectionist barriers. We're the country that created NATO and created 477 00:26:13,240 --> 00:26:16,240 Speaker 2: our East Asian alliances that are so important to American 478 00:26:16,320 --> 00:26:18,880 Speaker 2: power in the world. But now we are letting those 479 00:26:18,920 --> 00:26:22,399 Speaker 2: alliances atrophy because we're not interested in leading some of 480 00:26:22,400 --> 00:26:27,160 Speaker 2: them anymore. And at home, of course, we're the epler 481 00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:31,679 Speaker 2: of Bazunim country. Every single American has an immigrant story. 482 00:26:32,440 --> 00:26:35,240 Speaker 2: My story is two of my grandparents immigrants from Ireland, 483 00:26:35,280 --> 00:26:38,440 Speaker 2: my dad's parents, and that story has been replicated a 484 00:26:38,560 --> 00:26:42,960 Speaker 2: million times over in our society. I'm against illegal immigration 485 00:26:43,000 --> 00:26:45,120 Speaker 2: in the United States. We have to protect our borders, 486 00:26:45,400 --> 00:26:48,720 Speaker 2: but we have to keep our door open to legal immigration, 487 00:26:49,040 --> 00:26:52,680 Speaker 2: particularly young people who want to be business small business owners, 488 00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:55,080 Speaker 2: who want to go to our universities. And we have 489 00:26:55,160 --> 00:26:58,920 Speaker 2: to keep our universities open to foreign students. But look 490 00:26:58,960 --> 00:27:02,080 Speaker 2: at the climate of fear produced by this administration. The 491 00:27:02,119 --> 00:27:06,960 Speaker 2: Trump administration on university campuses foreign students who worry about 492 00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:09,199 Speaker 2: being expelled from the country before they can take a 493 00:27:09,240 --> 00:27:13,560 Speaker 2: final exam. People who are in this country legally as 494 00:27:13,600 --> 00:27:18,400 Speaker 2: Green card holders, and yet they're somehow rounded up and deported. 495 00:27:19,040 --> 00:27:22,360 Speaker 2: This is the lifeblood of America. The Statue of Liberty 496 00:27:22,800 --> 00:27:25,199 Speaker 2: is one of our most famous symbols for one reason. 497 00:27:25,720 --> 00:27:27,960 Speaker 2: You know, we welcome people from around the world, and 498 00:27:28,000 --> 00:27:31,240 Speaker 2: they've made us stronger in waves of immigration. And I 499 00:27:31,280 --> 00:27:34,960 Speaker 2: think even in political science great power terms, we are 500 00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:38,679 Speaker 2: the second youngest demographically of all the great powers in 501 00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:41,160 Speaker 2: the world. India is the youngest, but only because of immigration. 502 00:27:41,240 --> 00:27:44,360 Speaker 2: Our birth rate is not much higher than China and Japan, 503 00:27:44,960 --> 00:27:49,080 Speaker 2: South Korea, Europe, But it's higher because of immigration. I 504 00:27:49,119 --> 00:27:53,800 Speaker 2: see that this university, what immigrants and what are immigrant 505 00:27:53,800 --> 00:27:57,919 Speaker 2: students and refugee students contribute to this university. And I 506 00:27:57,960 --> 00:28:02,520 Speaker 2: really worry about a closed America, denying and shutting off 507 00:28:02,560 --> 00:28:05,360 Speaker 2: what has made us great. One of the primary elements 508 00:28:05,359 --> 00:28:08,880 Speaker 2: that's made America great is that. So there's so much 509 00:28:09,080 --> 00:28:13,040 Speaker 2: that can be done to unravel and weaken a great 510 00:28:13,080 --> 00:28:13,680 Speaker 2: power like. 511 00:28:13,640 --> 00:28:14,399 Speaker 3: The United States. 512 00:28:14,400 --> 00:28:17,440 Speaker 2: And we've got to reinforce some of these better angels, 513 00:28:17,320 --> 00:28:20,359 Speaker 2: as Lincoln put it, call on the better angels of 514 00:28:20,400 --> 00:28:22,800 Speaker 2: our nature to remember what made America great? 515 00:28:23,760 --> 00:28:26,840 Speaker 1: Can you recognize the State Department today? You can spend 516 00:28:27,080 --> 00:28:32,000 Speaker 1: forty five years in government service. Is it recognizable to 517 00:28:32,040 --> 00:28:34,840 Speaker 1: you given the cuts that have taken place, the priorities 518 00:28:34,840 --> 00:28:38,160 Speaker 1: of it. How different is it from the place that 519 00:28:38,200 --> 00:28:39,760 Speaker 1: you first went to forty five years ago? 520 00:28:40,080 --> 00:28:41,280 Speaker 3: David, I answer it this way. 521 00:28:41,680 --> 00:28:43,880 Speaker 2: I spent a lifetime in government at the State Department 522 00:28:43,920 --> 00:28:47,840 Speaker 2: in White House, serving in Washington and overseas. Every government 523 00:28:47,880 --> 00:28:51,600 Speaker 2: agency can be subject and should be subject to reform. 524 00:28:52,200 --> 00:28:57,280 Speaker 2: There is waste, a fraud, and abuse in every government agency. 525 00:28:57,320 --> 00:29:02,280 Speaker 2: You need perpetual reform but taking a slip to USAID 526 00:29:02,480 --> 00:29:05,840 Speaker 2: and firing eight thousand people in one week, without a thought, 527 00:29:06,320 --> 00:29:09,280 Speaker 2: without a plan, without actually knowing what you're tearing down. 528 00:29:09,680 --> 00:29:11,040 Speaker 3: That was a huge mistake. 529 00:29:11,760 --> 00:29:18,160 Speaker 2: Treating nonpartisan civil servants, military officers, foreign service officers as 530 00:29:18,200 --> 00:29:22,280 Speaker 2: if they are disloyal because they work for President Biden. Well, 531 00:29:22,280 --> 00:29:25,440 Speaker 2: they also work for President Bush. They've worked people like 532 00:29:25,520 --> 00:29:27,920 Speaker 2: me work for both parties. We take a note to 533 00:29:27,960 --> 00:29:31,680 Speaker 2: the Constitution to be nonpartisan. But the Trump administration has 534 00:29:31,760 --> 00:29:37,200 Speaker 2: not appointed a single foreign service professional ambassador since it 535 00:29:37,240 --> 00:29:40,640 Speaker 2: took office. They've appointed lots of political appointees, but nobody 536 00:29:40,640 --> 00:29:44,160 Speaker 2: from the ranks of our serving career diplomats. Seventeen of 537 00:29:44,200 --> 00:29:48,320 Speaker 2: our deputy chiefs of mission are number two officials in 538 00:29:48,400 --> 00:29:52,480 Speaker 2: embassies who were assigned to these jobs and getting ready 539 00:29:52,520 --> 00:29:56,320 Speaker 2: to go have been told they're not going. And many 540 00:29:56,360 --> 00:29:58,600 Speaker 2: of them, if not all, of that group, are women 541 00:29:59,280 --> 00:30:03,960 Speaker 2: and people of color. And so there is a crisis 542 00:30:04,280 --> 00:30:05,920 Speaker 2: in our civil service right now. 543 00:30:06,240 --> 00:30:06,880 Speaker 3: And if these. 544 00:30:06,800 --> 00:30:09,520 Speaker 2: Cuts continue the way they are, and if the denigration 545 00:30:09,640 --> 00:30:13,520 Speaker 2: of our civil servants continue, you're losing You're losing a 546 00:30:13,600 --> 00:30:15,720 Speaker 2: great group of people who just want to serve the 547 00:30:15,760 --> 00:30:17,960 Speaker 2: country and want to do it in a non partisan way, 548 00:30:18,360 --> 00:30:21,760 Speaker 2: and they will be non partisan. When I left China 549 00:30:22,120 --> 00:30:25,400 Speaker 2: and held my last staff meeting, I told my staff 550 00:30:25,400 --> 00:30:28,520 Speaker 2: in our very large embassy in Beijing, you need to 551 00:30:28,600 --> 00:30:33,200 Speaker 2: work for President Trump as faithfully as you did for 552 00:30:33,280 --> 00:30:37,760 Speaker 2: President Biden. You need to work for my successor, Ambassador Purdue, 553 00:30:37,960 --> 00:30:41,640 Speaker 2: as faithfully and as hard as you did for me. 554 00:30:42,160 --> 00:30:45,640 Speaker 2: That is the Foreign Service and US government way. And 555 00:30:45,920 --> 00:30:50,240 Speaker 2: I think the Trump administration has been extraordinarily destructive of 556 00:30:50,320 --> 00:30:52,480 Speaker 2: this tradition we've had in this country now for about 557 00:30:52,480 --> 00:30:55,880 Speaker 2: one hundred and thirty years of a professional civil service, 558 00:30:55,960 --> 00:30:58,400 Speaker 2: not a political spoils system. What we had in the 559 00:30:58,480 --> 00:31:02,320 Speaker 2: nineteenth century, professional civil service that would serve the country 560 00:31:02,800 --> 00:31:05,680 Speaker 2: and serve any president that the American people elected. 561 00:31:05,760 --> 00:31:07,240 Speaker 3: That's what's at stake. 562 00:31:07,640 --> 00:31:09,960 Speaker 2: And I think when the pendulum does swing back at 563 00:31:09,960 --> 00:31:14,040 Speaker 2: some point, we're going to have to create USA, recreate USAID, 564 00:31:14,280 --> 00:31:18,480 Speaker 2: recreate the Voice of America, recreate Radio Free Asia. These 565 00:31:18,480 --> 00:31:22,240 Speaker 2: are journalists who we employ to tell the story of 566 00:31:22,280 --> 00:31:25,920 Speaker 2: the United States, in the case of China, to several 567 00:31:26,160 --> 00:31:31,000 Speaker 2: hundred million Chinese listeners of VOA and Radio Free Asia. 568 00:31:31,200 --> 00:31:36,000 Speaker 2: So enormous damage has been done by this very cynical effort. 569 00:31:36,760 --> 00:31:40,240 Speaker 3: Doge to tear down all. 570 00:31:40,120 --> 00:31:43,840 Speaker 2: These institutions and not replace them with anything of value. 571 00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:46,440 Speaker 1: But you're confident that that force of gravity will swing 572 00:31:46,440 --> 00:31:49,200 Speaker 1: the pendulum back, that we will be able to do that. 573 00:31:49,240 --> 00:31:50,080 Speaker 3: Well, I don't recreate them. 574 00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:52,760 Speaker 2: I don't think anybody can predict when reason will prevail 575 00:31:52,800 --> 00:31:56,320 Speaker 2: again and logic will prevail and sanity. But it has 576 00:31:56,400 --> 00:32:00,000 Speaker 2: to because I think future administrations, future presidents will look 577 00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:03,560 Speaker 2: around at their government and say, where are my diplomats? 578 00:32:04,080 --> 00:32:07,360 Speaker 2: Where are my aid workers? How do we run vaccine programs, 579 00:32:07,440 --> 00:32:10,600 Speaker 2: global health programs, literacy programs that we ought to be 580 00:32:10,680 --> 00:32:14,240 Speaker 2: doing around the world because of Americans are generous people. 581 00:32:14,640 --> 00:32:18,200 Speaker 3: Where are my diplomats? Why do I not have any diplomats. 582 00:32:18,000 --> 00:32:20,800 Speaker 2: With thirty or forty years of experience? Well, they were 583 00:32:20,800 --> 00:32:25,720 Speaker 2: all fired, summarily kicked out in the first couple of 584 00:32:25,720 --> 00:32:28,480 Speaker 2: weeks and months of the Trump administration. It's a true 585 00:32:28,600 --> 00:32:29,520 Speaker 2: national crisis. 586 00:32:30,360 --> 00:32:31,720 Speaker 1: I'm going to go out on a limb and imagine 587 00:32:31,760 --> 00:32:34,320 Speaker 1: You've kept in touch with folks at the embassy in Beijing, 588 00:32:34,360 --> 00:32:35,640 Speaker 1: and I think a lot of focus has been on 589 00:32:35,680 --> 00:32:37,840 Speaker 1: what these cuts have been like in Washington, d C. 590 00:32:38,000 --> 00:32:41,440 Speaker 1: But for a major embassy like that one, What have 591 00:32:41,520 --> 00:32:43,240 Speaker 1: they meant for the way that it operates. 592 00:32:43,600 --> 00:32:47,280 Speaker 2: I can't speak for my team at Embassy Mission China. 593 00:32:48,240 --> 00:32:52,920 Speaker 2: I left just before January twentieth, and our tradition is 594 00:32:52,960 --> 00:32:56,600 Speaker 2: you don't when you leave, you leave, you don't get involved. 595 00:32:56,760 --> 00:32:59,480 Speaker 2: And obviously the Trump team had to come in and 596 00:32:59,560 --> 00:33:02,520 Speaker 2: run that. So I can't speak for them, but I 597 00:33:02,520 --> 00:33:04,160 Speaker 2: can speak for a lot of people who've been laid 598 00:33:04,160 --> 00:33:06,720 Speaker 2: off in Washington, and a lot of people who are 599 00:33:06,720 --> 00:33:10,080 Speaker 2: thinking now seriously of leaving. These are people whose lifelong 600 00:33:10,160 --> 00:33:13,760 Speaker 2: ambition was to work for the Treasury Apartment or the Pentagon, 601 00:33:13,920 --> 00:33:16,800 Speaker 2: or the State Department or the Commist Department. They just 602 00:33:16,880 --> 00:33:19,600 Speaker 2: wanted to serve our country. But they're being treated like 603 00:33:19,640 --> 00:33:24,440 Speaker 2: second class citizens, and they're facing massive layoffs of the 604 00:33:24,480 --> 00:33:27,120 Speaker 2: type that we've never seen before in the history of 605 00:33:27,200 --> 00:33:28,000 Speaker 2: the United States. 606 00:33:28,040 --> 00:33:28,960 Speaker 3: Nothing like this. 607 00:33:29,600 --> 00:33:34,040 Speaker 2: The wholesale destruction of federal government agencies in some cases, 608 00:33:34,680 --> 00:33:39,360 Speaker 2: and the almost irrational downsizing of the numbers of others, 609 00:33:39,600 --> 00:33:42,320 Speaker 2: nothing like this has ever happened before in the history 610 00:33:42,320 --> 00:33:44,680 Speaker 2: of the country. Because it's not smart and it's going 611 00:33:44,760 --> 00:33:48,200 Speaker 2: to weaken US. I can tell you who's really happy 612 00:33:48,200 --> 00:33:51,840 Speaker 2: about this the government in China. They are competing with 613 00:33:51,920 --> 00:33:55,560 Speaker 2: US diplomatically for how many embassies and consulates east of 614 00:33:55,640 --> 00:33:58,720 Speaker 2: US have. They are hiring new diplomats at a pace 615 00:33:58,760 --> 00:34:02,120 Speaker 2: that we can't manage, and that matters around the world. 616 00:34:02,200 --> 00:34:04,479 Speaker 2: It matters in our ability to be effective as we 617 00:34:04,520 --> 00:34:06,760 Speaker 2: compete with them in every part of the world. 618 00:34:07,720 --> 00:34:10,320 Speaker 1: I'd like to close by asking you what you're telling 619 00:34:10,600 --> 00:34:14,080 Speaker 1: students here who are here at the Kennedy School here 620 00:34:14,080 --> 00:34:17,560 Speaker 1: at Harvard to learn from your experience, to learn an 621 00:34:17,640 --> 00:34:21,160 Speaker 1: art of diplomacy that has been practiced and perfected for 622 00:34:21,239 --> 00:34:26,239 Speaker 1: many decades. There must be many students here wondering if 623 00:34:26,280 --> 00:34:28,080 Speaker 1: the path that they predicted would be there has been 624 00:34:28,200 --> 00:34:31,480 Speaker 1: foreclothes that there's no ladder the likes of what you've 625 00:34:31,520 --> 00:34:34,279 Speaker 1: described before. You could start as an intern at the 626 00:34:34,280 --> 00:34:36,640 Speaker 1: State Department and work your way up to heading the 627 00:34:36,719 --> 00:34:38,760 Speaker 1: largest mission in the US. 628 00:34:39,840 --> 00:34:40,640 Speaker 3: What do you tell them? 629 00:34:41,200 --> 00:34:44,359 Speaker 2: I'm telling students here at Harvard, but students I meet 630 00:34:44,400 --> 00:34:45,600 Speaker 2: from across the country. 631 00:34:46,040 --> 00:34:48,200 Speaker 3: Hang on, hang on to your ideals. 632 00:34:48,680 --> 00:34:50,959 Speaker 2: It's a good thing to want to spend your life 633 00:34:51,000 --> 00:34:54,080 Speaker 2: serving the United States of America, your country. It's a 634 00:34:54,120 --> 00:34:56,000 Speaker 2: good thing you want to be in the public square, 635 00:34:56,080 --> 00:35:00,600 Speaker 2: what Teddy Roosevelt called the arena of public service, and 636 00:35:00,640 --> 00:35:05,760 Speaker 2: that I'm just convinced that future presidents of either party 637 00:35:06,640 --> 00:35:09,000 Speaker 2: are going to want to rebuild our capacity to have 638 00:35:09,040 --> 00:35:13,000 Speaker 2: a fully fledged State Department and US Agency for International 639 00:35:13,000 --> 00:35:15,080 Speaker 2: Development so that we can be effective in the world 640 00:35:15,360 --> 00:35:20,120 Speaker 2: and defend ourselves and prepare yourselves, study hard, and don't 641 00:35:20,200 --> 00:35:23,319 Speaker 2: leave that dream behind of public service. Because what a 642 00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:26,440 Speaker 2: tragedy would be for our country if young people in 643 00:35:26,480 --> 00:35:28,320 Speaker 2: this country felt, well, I can't serve in the federal 644 00:35:28,360 --> 00:35:32,080 Speaker 2: government because I'm not welcome as a career official in 645 00:35:32,120 --> 00:35:36,520 Speaker 2: the federal government. We need non partisan Americans out there 646 00:35:36,680 --> 00:35:40,920 Speaker 2: representing us without any regard to party allegiance. That's what 647 00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:43,920 Speaker 2: we have in the federal government service and in the 648 00:35:44,000 --> 00:35:44,760 Speaker 2: US military. 649 00:35:44,920 --> 00:35:47,319 Speaker 3: That's the oath of office that we all take to. 650 00:35:47,239 --> 00:35:49,760 Speaker 2: Defend the constitution. It's not an oath to the president 651 00:35:50,800 --> 00:35:53,600 Speaker 2: of either party. It's an oath to the Constitution that 652 00:35:53,640 --> 00:35:57,680 Speaker 2: we will be non partisan. That's an enormous asset, and 653 00:35:57,760 --> 00:36:00,200 Speaker 2: if we let it wither away in this administration is 654 00:36:00,239 --> 00:36:03,000 Speaker 2: doing that, it's going to do enormous damage to our country. 655 00:36:03,680 --> 00:36:06,280 Speaker 3: Lastly, what is this like for you personally? 656 00:36:06,320 --> 00:36:09,880 Speaker 1: Somebody who has served for presidents from both parties in 657 00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:15,280 Speaker 1: a very non partisan way, to find yourself asking students 658 00:36:15,320 --> 00:36:17,760 Speaker 1: to hold on calling for the return of these regilations 659 00:36:17,800 --> 00:36:20,239 Speaker 1: and in so doing, I guess being seen probably by 660 00:36:20,239 --> 00:36:22,920 Speaker 1: some as acting in a partisan way. It's going against 661 00:36:22,920 --> 00:36:25,200 Speaker 1: what this administration is doing. It must be a very 662 00:36:25,520 --> 00:36:27,399 Speaker 1: foreign feeling for you to have. 663 00:36:28,320 --> 00:36:31,239 Speaker 2: Well, what I'm advocating is not partisan. I worked for 664 00:36:31,280 --> 00:36:37,160 Speaker 2: Republican presidents as well as Democratic presidents, and as a 665 00:36:37,200 --> 00:36:40,719 Speaker 2: Foreign service officer, career diplomat, my oath was to the Constitution, 666 00:36:40,920 --> 00:36:43,680 Speaker 2: it was to the country. So in advocating for a 667 00:36:43,760 --> 00:36:48,160 Speaker 2: strong diplomatic corps in the State Department, for a strong USAID, 668 00:36:48,400 --> 00:36:52,960 Speaker 2: for a strong military, I think that's patriotic. It's not partisan, 669 00:36:53,640 --> 00:36:56,920 Speaker 2: and not everything has to be about politics. 670 00:36:57,400 --> 00:36:59,000 Speaker 3: And one of the great strengths of our. 671 00:36:58,880 --> 00:37:02,480 Speaker 2: Country is a federal government workforce that is not about politics. 672 00:37:02,800 --> 00:37:06,399 Speaker 2: But they're being politicized now, they're being penalized. They're being 673 00:37:06,440 --> 00:37:09,120 Speaker 2: told that they can't be trusted because they work for 674 00:37:09,200 --> 00:37:12,720 Speaker 2: President Biden. All of my colleagues work for senior colleagues 675 00:37:12,800 --> 00:37:17,480 Speaker 2: work for President George W. Bush and his father before 676 00:37:17,480 --> 00:37:20,440 Speaker 2: it as well as President Clinton and President Obama and 677 00:37:20,520 --> 00:37:24,480 Speaker 2: President Biden, all of them work for President Trump in 678 00:37:24,560 --> 00:37:27,640 Speaker 2: his first term. There was no mass layoff then, so 679 00:37:27,800 --> 00:37:31,920 Speaker 2: why the change now. I think it's extraordinarily shortsighted for 680 00:37:32,000 --> 00:37:34,520 Speaker 2: the United States government to be heading in this direction.