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Speaker 1: This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre. What is a

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Speaker 1: straight Fire fan. It's Jason McIntyre Straight Fired for farride Ay,

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Speaker 1: September thirty, final day of the month, and I wish

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Speaker 1: we had positive news to report at the outside of

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Speaker 1: this podcast, but the twa tongue voloa injury is going

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Speaker 1: to be totally dominant today, at least the early portion

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Speaker 1: of the day in the sports world. We'll get to

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Speaker 1: all that shortly. Also have a great guest coming up.

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Speaker 1: You know him well. He is Rufus Peabody. He's been

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Speaker 1: on this podcast. Yes, that's a real name. He is

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Speaker 1: a big time gambler. He is a proper legend. He bets,

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Speaker 1: he moves golf, gambling markets. I know you guys probably

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Speaker 1: hear that you're not. Come on, no, really he does.

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Speaker 1: Um this guy, he's he's pretty dominant at gambling and

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Speaker 1: we'll have him on Talk week for NFL. He's got

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Speaker 1: a pretty good product, unabated to help you as a

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Speaker 1: gambler instead of just asking me, hey, hey, Jay, who

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Speaker 1: do you have in Saints vikings. Listen to the breakdowns

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Speaker 1: here on the podcast and as as you'll hear from Rufus.

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Speaker 1: Download unabated. It's got some really good stuff. Um. We'll

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Speaker 1: get the best bets for Week four at the end

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Speaker 1: of the podcast, but don't skip ahead. There's plenty of

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Speaker 1: good stuff. First on two in the Dolphins and then

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Speaker 1: with Rufus Peabody. But let's start with those Dolphins. Cincinnati

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Speaker 1: gets a cover for me. Yea, I had Bengals and survivor.

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Speaker 1: Hooray we survived the Zach Taylor ineptitude. My gosh, was

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Speaker 1: he bad? I don't know what's worse for Zach Taylor.

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Speaker 1: The first down runs into the line of scrimmage like

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Speaker 1: god to established a run. Gotta get Joe Mixon going.

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Speaker 1: I mean, what did he have? Like eight carries of

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Speaker 1: one or two yards on first down? There's probably more

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Speaker 1: than that. Joe Joe Mixon finished the game with twenty

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Speaker 1: four carries for sixty one yards. His longest carry was

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Speaker 1: seven freaking yards. What are you running him twenty four times? For?

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Speaker 1: What are you doing? What on? What are you doing?

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Speaker 1: It was inexplicable. And then he kicks a field goal

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Speaker 1: on fourth and goal from the one. Zach Taylor. The

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Speaker 1: Zach Taylor experience. But nobody's gonna remember anything from the

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Speaker 1: Bengals in this game, they're gonna remember to Uh getting

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Speaker 1: another concussion. And I don't care what anybody says. It

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Speaker 1: was clear against the Buffalo Bills when he got pushed

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Speaker 1: out and his head hit the grass and he stood

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Speaker 1: up wobbly and then fell down. That's a concussion. You

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Speaker 1: could claim it's a back injury. I get it, but

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Speaker 1: nobody believes that that was not a concussion. And then

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Speaker 1: to see what happened to him again on Thursday night football,

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Speaker 1: he got rag dolled and knocked out to the point

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Speaker 1: where his hands were like his hands and his fingers

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Speaker 1: were bent in a way that they you're not supposed

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Speaker 1: to bend unless something's really wrong with your body. It's scary, guys.

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Speaker 1: I should have a neurology just on to break that down.

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Speaker 1: But the second you see that, you know that ain't good.

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Speaker 1: And to H did not return to the game. He

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Speaker 1: was stretching off, went to the local hospital. Apparently he

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Speaker 1: flew home with the team late last night from Cincinnati.

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Speaker 1: And I don't know what to say about two Uh

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Speaker 1: other than I hope the guy gets healthy. I mean,

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Speaker 1: going back to Alabama, remember it was tank for twa

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Speaker 1: he was a big deal. He was everything, and then

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Speaker 1: he gets that hip injury, and then he comes to

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Speaker 1: the NFL and he just hasn't totally looked like the

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Speaker 1: same guy. And then this season he starts awesome and

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Speaker 1: then gets knocked out of the Buffalo game for a minute,

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Speaker 1: comes back in, which was a little crazy, starts on

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Speaker 1: a short weekend since he gets knocked down and out,

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Speaker 1: and it's like, can the guy catch a break? I mean,

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Speaker 1: I skipped over all the chasing Deshaun Watson stuff, chasing

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Speaker 1: Tom Brady, stuff that Brian Flores doesn't like his quarterback stuff,

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Speaker 1: Like it's just brutal. You got on some level, if

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Speaker 1: you don't feel a little bit bad for Tua, you know,

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Speaker 1: make sure you got a heart under that under that

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Speaker 1: chest plate. Just make sure. Because I'm not even a

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Speaker 1: TOI fan. I don't like the Dolphins at all, and

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Speaker 1: watching him, it's like, guys, can this guy catch a break?

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Speaker 1: You know, maybe it's not just meant to be for him.

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Speaker 1: I mean, listen, they got some extra days off leading

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Speaker 1: up to the Jets game. But and again I'm not

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Speaker 1: a neurologist, shocker, um, why wouldn't they just give him

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Speaker 1: the extra days off. Then you've got the Jets game.

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Speaker 1: Why don't you just start Teddy Bridgewater The Jets will

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Speaker 1: probably be one and three Miami three and one, in

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Speaker 1: great shape, and give to an extra week off to

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Speaker 1: heal up. Remember he had ankle injuries. He was like

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Speaker 1: questionable for this game until like deep into Wednesday. I think,

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Speaker 1: you know you got bigger, bigger fish to fry. You

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Speaker 1: got the Vikings, later Steelers, and then of course the

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Speaker 1: end of the schedule come December, Niners, Chargers, Bills, Packers, Patriots.

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Speaker 1: Like you didn't need a healthy tool for that. Teddy

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Speaker 1: Bridgewaters probably one of the top five best backups in

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Speaker 1: the league, but he's limited. We all know that he's good.

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Speaker 1: He's a perfect relief pitcher in the NFL. We saw

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Speaker 1: him with the Saints. He got the job done and

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Speaker 1: and you could count on Teddy for a good month

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Speaker 1: to be the backup if you need it. But I

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Speaker 1: just don't see the rush to get to a back

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Speaker 1: on the field now. I know the NFL p A

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Speaker 1: is very upset with how it went down. First the

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Speaker 1: Bills situation with to uh remember the Dolphins didn't call

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Speaker 1: that a concussion. They said that was a back injury

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Speaker 1: and that's why he was rushed back. Now, everybody else

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Speaker 1: speculated at the time, well, it's a huge game against

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Speaker 1: the Bills, you're at home. To A doesn't want to leave.

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Speaker 1: I'm sure he was fighting and get back in it.

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Speaker 1: This is what competitors do, guys. Even mc daniel last

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Speaker 1: night said that after ta like came to I don't

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Speaker 1: smelling salts or whatever, it took like. One of the

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Speaker 1: first questions he asked was how did what did I

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Speaker 1: miss on that play? Or how did it end up?

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Speaker 1: Or they defended it this way. He was referencing the

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Speaker 1: play because he's so locked in and he's a quarterback

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Speaker 1: in to A, he's a game. Of course, he's a

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Speaker 1: smart guy. We're rooting for him. And McDaniel says they

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Speaker 1: did not bend any of the rules in concussion protocol

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Speaker 1: just to force their guy on the field. Um, I

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Speaker 1: don't know a billion dollar organization pushing a million dollar

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Speaker 1: player out there to get back in the playoffs for

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Speaker 1: the first time and forever and erased the stench of

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Speaker 1: Stephen Ross, that terrible owner and the GM who's really

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Speaker 1: made a couple of horrendous moves. I don't know. Guys,

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Speaker 1: it's tough. It's tough not being in that locker room

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Speaker 1: and say he should have never played on Thursday, Like,

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Speaker 1: you know, we talked about it a little bit, like

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Speaker 1: jeez can costume that didn't look great. He's questionable, okay,

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Speaker 1: and maybe they hold about and then he plays. Listen,

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Speaker 1: justin Herbert and the Chargers are going through a similar situation.

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Speaker 1: A lot of people, myself included, were saying, listen, it's

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Speaker 1: the Jags rib cartilage, offensive lineman out. Sorry your center

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Speaker 1: was out, then the offensive lineman went out. I mean,

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Speaker 1: Herbert takes a hit, Chargers are gonna get crushed for it.

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Speaker 1: If something happens to him against the Texas, it's not

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Speaker 1: gonna go well. These quarterbacks are fragile and you don't

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Speaker 1: mess with head injuries, right, come on, you can't. And

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Speaker 1: I think the Dolphins are gonna take some heat for this,

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Speaker 1: and um, we'll see how it goes. But overall, just

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Speaker 1: you're hoping for the young guy. He's had a lot

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Speaker 1: to deal with in his short time in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: And U Now the Dolphins come back to reality a

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Speaker 1: little bit. They're looking at a possible backup quarterback. For

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Speaker 1: a minute, and uh, we'll see what happens with two

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Speaker 1: and monitors health here for the next our ten days.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's get to our guest, Rufus Peabody of Unabated,

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Speaker 1: a great gambling site and also the podcast Bet the Process.

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Speaker 1: Jason likes to think he knows everything when it comes

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Speaker 1: to sports. I know what sports dance want. But for

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Speaker 1: everything he doesn't. He knows a guy who does. Let's

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Speaker 1: just say I know a guy who knows a guy

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Speaker 1: he knows another guy. All right, let's welcome back to

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Speaker 1: straight Fire. A guy who's pretty famous. I think the

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Speaker 1: Washington Post wrote a massive article about his gambling prowess

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Speaker 1: around prop bets at the Super Bowl. This is a

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Speaker 1: few years ago. He is, I think from Northern Virginia,

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Speaker 1: like I am. I'm not trying to clear that up shortly,

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Speaker 1: Rufus Peabody, how are you man? Good? Good? Jason gonna

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Speaker 1: be back. Yeah, Hey, thanks for coming on. Rufus obviously

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Speaker 1: has the website he talked about last time he was

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Speaker 1: on here, Unabated. If you google Unabated Gambling, it'll come up.

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Speaker 1: I gotta say, Rufus the site in the last year

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Speaker 1: has it seems like it's taken some massive leaps. Huh,

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Speaker 1: it really has. There's a lot that I'm really really

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Speaker 1: excited about. We have our PROPS two point o products

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Speaker 1: we unveiled, which is a PROPS ODD screen, but it

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Speaker 1: also allows you to sort of see the value of

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Speaker 1: each half a point um and to use your own projections,

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Speaker 1: and we let you simulate them and basically tells you

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Speaker 1: where where all the good positive aspected value bets are. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I mean, for instance, let's take like a Massive game

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Speaker 1: on Sunday, Tampa Bay, Kansas City. They just announced here

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Speaker 1: we're recording Thursday, that they are going to play the

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Speaker 1: game in Tampa. Whether the soggy field obviously a factor,

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Speaker 1: I assume I'm gonna go ahead and assume that people

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Speaker 1: will project a lot of unders on the player prop

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Speaker 1: market for that. Is that a safe assumption? Rufus um?

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Speaker 1: I think that sounds that sounds pretty safe to me.

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Speaker 1: And so when you plug into unabated um, you can

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Speaker 1: take Chris Jones from the Chiefs. You can then match

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Speaker 1: up what FanDuel has, DraftKings, bet MGM, Caesar's all these

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Speaker 1: and kind of find the best market to gamble into. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: you can. We we let you quantify your opinion and

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Speaker 1: also let say you know, if you just want a

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Speaker 1: line shopping line shopping is getting the best number is

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Speaker 1: is so so important. And so we have you know,

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Speaker 1: all the prop ods in one place. You can see

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Speaker 1: what all these different books have and like as you

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Speaker 1: said off off air, um, a few minutes before you

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Speaker 1: were looking I believe at Chase Edmonds Rushing Yards Market

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Speaker 1: and how different the numbers were at some books. And

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Speaker 1: so you can use our tools to actually find if

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Speaker 1: there's a profitable middle opportunity. Say you know, bet, you

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Speaker 1: know over thirteen and a half at one book for

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Speaker 1: a particular player, and then under seventeen and a half

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Speaker 1: at another book, and we can show you if that's

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Speaker 1: actually you know, a positive expected value, um middle. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: For instance, Marcus Mariota, I'm seeing over under one and

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Speaker 1: a half passing touchdowns against the Browns now as I mean, rufus,

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Speaker 1: I know you're I haven't I confess I haven't listened

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Speaker 1: to your pot in a while. Your your partner over

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Speaker 1: at bet the process, Jeff Bond not a fan of

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Speaker 1: my work anymore. Um, but I do know that you

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Speaker 1: know historically you're not like Mr Watch every game, game,

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Speaker 1: monitor the injury reports every day. Right, Is that accurate?

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Speaker 1: That's that's very accurate. In fact, foot football is not

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Speaker 1: my bread and butter. Right, Golf obviously is your Is

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Speaker 1: still your number one? Golf is Yes, golf is my

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Speaker 1: number one by monum So, So for instance, Marcus Mariota,

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Speaker 1: I'm looking at over under one and a half passing

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Speaker 1: touchdowns and I see Clowney out Myles Garrett flips his Porsche.

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Speaker 1: Sounds like he hasn't practiced all week, unlikely to play right,

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Speaker 1: So Marcus Mariotte is going to have his way, But

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Speaker 1: there's just become a ground game with Cordarol Patterson, who,

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Speaker 1: by the way, has missed a practice time. Um Or

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Speaker 1: does Marcus Mariotta go bonkers against what I think is

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Speaker 1: gonna be a really soft Cleveland defense without both their

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Speaker 1: best edge guys. That that's a really good question. And honestly,

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Speaker 1: I've you know, over the years when I was a

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Speaker 1: little bit, when I spent a lot more time on

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Speaker 1: the NFL stuff, that was that was one thing that

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Speaker 1: I always had trouble quantifying. You know, you could say

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Speaker 1: that this particular team is we get like a team

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Speaker 1: might be weak against the run. You think, oh, well,

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Speaker 1: maybe this team is gonna have their way with them

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Speaker 1: on the ground. But then they say, okay, you know

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Speaker 1: what we're gonna We're gonna just we're gonna put a

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Speaker 1: lot of men in the box and force the quarterback

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Speaker 1: to beat us with his arm. And so in terms

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Speaker 1: of prop projections and that kind of thing, I mean,

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Speaker 1: I think sometimes you can kind of over analyze analysis

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Speaker 1: by paralysis is what I think my dad did when

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Speaker 1: I was like a kid. I would overthink things and

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Speaker 1: then kind of be frozen in the momentum. But let

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Speaker 1: me ask Rufus, so you created this incredible website. It

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Speaker 1: it looks like just a great tool for gamblers, right, well,

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Speaker 1: I found on the podcast we're able to look at

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Speaker 1: the numbers. Obviously, our Friday Weekend podcast is the most

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Speaker 1: listen to during NFL season every every day of the

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Speaker 1: week the Friday one because obviously there's two more days

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Speaker 1: for the weekend. But everybody wants picks, and you know,

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Speaker 1: people will just jump on me Rufus on social media

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Speaker 1: and be like, hey, who's your pick in this game?

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Speaker 1: And I was like, well I talked about this on

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Speaker 1: the podcast, Uh, three days this week. Uh, are you

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Speaker 1: gonna listen to the process that I went through for

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Speaker 1: the last five days or you just you just want

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Speaker 1: to pick and like you've created this awesome tool. Do

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Speaker 1: you how do you get the casual gambler or even

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Speaker 1: you know, maybe a little more than casual gambler to

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Speaker 1: really lock in and get better as opposed to just

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Speaker 1: hunt around for picks on the internet. You know, that's

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Speaker 1: a that's a great question, Jason, and I also frustrated

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Speaker 1: that people seem to really gravitate towards picks when you know,

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Speaker 1: most of the time, UM, I mean, most people giving

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Speaker 1: picks are not giving you winning picks. And and there's

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Speaker 1: no really good way to verify that because most of

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Speaker 1: these people don't even track their picks. So UM, you know,

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Speaker 1: it's tough. If if you have any good ideas for me, UM,

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Speaker 1: let me know. But I think getting our getting getting

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Speaker 1: people in front of our product, getting their eyeballs on it.

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Speaker 1: I think it provides value in a way that's transparent

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Speaker 1: and clear. And I hopefully people after betting free picks

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Speaker 1: or paying for picks long enough realized that you know,

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Speaker 1: this isn't working, I need to try something else. Um.

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Speaker 1: And so the goal is even if you know, we

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Speaker 1: want you to at least lose less, you know, and

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Speaker 1: we have tools we're not giving if. I mean, look,

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Speaker 1: this is entertainment for most people, I'm not like, right,

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Speaker 1: I mean betting his entertainment I had so Yeah, I

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Speaker 1: had some buddies in Vegas last week and they texted

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Speaker 1: me on Thursday, Hey, I want to do some big

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Speaker 1: time Hey hail Mary Parlay's because I'm in Vegas and

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Speaker 1: we're going only here for twenty hours or whatever. And

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Speaker 1: I was like, well, you really want to do a

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Speaker 1: Hail Mary Parley? Like that's the entertainment that guy had,

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Speaker 1: like a twelve team parlay hit. His first like seven

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Speaker 1: was so super geeked and then it kind of fell apart.

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Speaker 1: But um, yeah, rufus. I think a lot of people,

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Speaker 1: what do you think the breakdown is entertainment versus full

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Speaker 1: time job? Oh, entertainment points something probably, But I mean,

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Speaker 1: I think the thing is there are people that are

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Speaker 1: trying to win. There, I guess is going the term

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Speaker 1: aspiring sharps. Right, nobody wants to lose. But but I

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Speaker 1: would say most recreational bettors, I would think know that

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Speaker 1: they're probably not going to make a lot of money

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Speaker 1: or even break even long term. I think that's a

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Speaker 1: safe assumption. But I mean, so my point is like

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Speaker 1: you get out of it what you put into it,

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Speaker 1: And that kind of goes with unobated too. With our

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Speaker 1: we have have these products that let you find value,

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Speaker 1: that let you find value in derivative markets, and but

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Speaker 1: it takes work. And so we've gotten I mean, if

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Speaker 1: you go on, if you join our discard, I mean

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Speaker 1: we've gotten a lot of really really good feedback from

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Speaker 1: users and testimonials. There was a guy that said that

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Speaker 1: he went from not making money betting to making two

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Speaker 1: fifty dollars last year betting sports using our products. So

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Speaker 1: but he put in work. So you know that's we

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Speaker 1: We we provide these tools that will help you become

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Speaker 1: a winning better if you want to, but you still

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Speaker 1: have to put in some work. Now, you still definitely

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Speaker 1: have to want to put in the work. Um. I

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Speaker 1: also see you have your Massy Peabody rankings. I will say,

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Speaker 1: like maybe five years ago when I started writing about

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Speaker 1: gambling for Fox, I remember seeing Massy Peabody everywhere and

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Speaker 1: in your rankings are pretty spot on. But I gotta says,

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Speaker 1: I'm a little surprised. The biggest climber of any team

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Speaker 1: so far this season for you as Jacksonville. Um, it

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Speaker 1: looks like they're up nine from twenty in the league

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Speaker 1: to eleven. What do the numbers say about Jacksonville's rise,

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Speaker 1: because remember, um, I think they are. They lost to

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Speaker 1: your Washington team in the opener, a game that I

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Speaker 1: thought they should have won, and then they beat up

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Speaker 1: an injured Colts team which is missing their best receiver,

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Speaker 1: and then they beat up an injured Chargers team. Yet

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Speaker 1: the rankings, we've seen them climb for all the way

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Speaker 1: to eleven. Yeah, they're one of only I believe two

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Speaker 1: teams so far this season that have there have been

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Speaker 1: above average in every facet of the game, both on

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Speaker 1: offense and defense. So that's that's rushing, offense, passing, scoring efficiency,

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Speaker 1: and play success is the four metrics that that we

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Speaker 1: use at Massive Peabody, which is now part of Anovated

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Speaker 1: And so they they've just been really solid across the board,

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Speaker 1: and I think we didn't really know what to expect

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Speaker 1: of them. We didn't know how much of an impact

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Speaker 1: Doug Peterson would have and how bad Urban Meyer really

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Speaker 1: was and his effect on that team last year. And

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Speaker 1: so I think that we can be a little we

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Speaker 1: can be a little bit more aggressive and how we

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Speaker 1: update their rating just given that uncertainty going into the season. Yeah, Like,

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Speaker 1: and I know that your priors play a big factor

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Speaker 1: in this, right, priors play a big factor in on

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Speaker 1: in the Massy Peabody rankings. They do. Yeah, so through

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Speaker 1: three games, three games, you know, three games is approximately

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Speaker 1: like a hundred and eighty offensive snaps And there's I mean,

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Speaker 1: you can cherry like, think about any team last year.

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Speaker 1: You can cheery pick three games last year where the

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Speaker 1: Chiefs looked really bad and the Bengals looked really bad.

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Speaker 1: And so just who a team has been in three

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Speaker 1: games doesn't tell you who they are they're going to

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Speaker 1: be for sure. It gives you some information for you,

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Speaker 1: But we shouldn't just throw out everything we knew before. Like,

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Speaker 1: think about Cooper Rush. Do we really expect Cooper Rush

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Speaker 1: to be better than Dak Prescott? No, but he's played

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Speaker 1: better than Dak Prescott has so far this season. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: you have Dallas by the way, super duper low um

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Speaker 1: looks like it looks like because of Cooper Rush. And

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Speaker 1: I don't think Cooper Rush is the starting quarterback. It's

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Speaker 1: not sustainable. But I do want to ask when you

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Speaker 1: mentioned priors, like shouldn't we throw out last season's Jacksonville

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Speaker 1: because of Urban Meyer. He was such a catastrophe and disaster. Uh,

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Speaker 1: And they made a lot of changes. They upgraded with

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Speaker 1: E t N the defense got better. And I asked

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Speaker 1: that because of the Denver Broncos, who Massy Peabody does

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Speaker 1: not love, um, but they have I think they're the

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Speaker 1: only team in the league with a new offensive coordinator,

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Speaker 1: defensive coordinator, head coach, and quarterback. And it's very clear

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Speaker 1: watching these guys on offense they have they're just super

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Speaker 1: slow to get up to speed on everything. Yeah, they

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Speaker 1: really are. And UM to your point about Jacksonville, I

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Speaker 1: don't think we throw out the priors, but we we

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Speaker 1: wait them a little little bit less. We're inclined to

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Speaker 1: dismiss them a little more quickly. I guess just because

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Speaker 1: of the uncertainty in that, you know, because they have

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Speaker 1: a new coach and new system in and so I

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Speaker 1: think that there's certain teams where you can say, Okay,

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Speaker 1: we know who they are going to be. In other

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Speaker 1: teams where you know a lot less and I think,

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Speaker 1: you know, Denver is another good example of that. As

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Speaker 1: you said, like a new quarterback, and anytime you have

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Speaker 1: a lot of roster turnover, especially a new quarterback, there's

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Speaker 1: a lot you don't know. Yeah, we know who Russell

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Speaker 1: Wilson was in Seattle with a few different offensive coordinators

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Speaker 1: and Pete Carroll. We don't know who he's going to

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Speaker 1: be in this different environment and how well that system

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Speaker 1: is going to utilize him. And for only I think

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Speaker 1: Russell Wilson was a little bit overvalued. Now is that

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Speaker 1: is that the numbers talking or is that Rufus just

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Speaker 1: eyeballing Ross over the last couple of years and saying, yeah,

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Speaker 1: this guy's gone downhill? No, I mean I think that's

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Speaker 1: the numbers. He's he's also thirty three something like that. Yeah, yea,

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Speaker 1: you sure there's some quarterbacks playing age forty five. I

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Speaker 1: don't think we should write exactly, I don't think, you know,

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Speaker 1: I don't I don't know what conclusion to draw from that.

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Speaker 1: But if you look at how Russ has played the

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Speaker 1: last few years relative to what he did, you know,

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Speaker 1: five ten years ago, um, it hasn't been exactly the same.

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Speaker 1: He's put up numbers, and I think everybody was quick

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Speaker 1: to blame Pete Carroll in that offense and not letting

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Speaker 1: Russ cook, But um, he was not able to lift

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Speaker 1: kind of a mediocre team the last few years, and

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Speaker 1: I think I think the hope was that he would

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Speaker 1: in Denver help a team with a very very good

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Speaker 1: offense and some good pieces on a very good defense

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Speaker 1: and some good pieces on offense. But I just thought

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Speaker 1: that the hype far exceeded what the number said in

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Speaker 1: terms of how good Denver was going to be heading

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Speaker 1: into the season. And Dave kind of like, I got

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Speaker 1: under ten wins for them, that was one of the

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Speaker 1: futures vets. Really Jesus, So let me guess this means

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Speaker 1: you're rooting obviously for the Raiders. Excuse me this weekend.

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Speaker 1: They're one of the teams that Massy Peabody has UH

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Speaker 1: downgraded significantly. Um, you know, rufus. I mean, I know

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Speaker 1: this stuff is the gamblers love to talk about it,

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Speaker 1: and it does well on TV and streaming shows and

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Speaker 1: all that. But when I say, hey, the Raiders were

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Speaker 1: seven and two in close games last year, here they

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Speaker 1: go oh and three to start the year in close games,

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Speaker 1: Like when when you hear that as a as a

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Speaker 1: numbers based guy, do you just roll your eyes? You

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Speaker 1: just like that doesn't mean anything? Or is there something there?

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Speaker 1: So how a team does in close games is largely

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Speaker 1: the product of luck. That's I mean, that is what

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Speaker 1: all the research has found. There's very little correlation between

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Speaker 1: how a team did in one score games from season

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Speaker 1: to season. So the Bills are a great example. I

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Speaker 1: believe last year they didn't win a single game decided

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Speaker 1: by seven points or last and this season they've started, Um,

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Speaker 1: I think they've they're over in games decide of my

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Speaker 1: seven points or less as well, oh and one, I guess.

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Speaker 1: But to me, that just says maybe they're actually way

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Speaker 1: better than they're better than the record indicates, because a

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Speaker 1: lot can happen in close games, like does you know

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Speaker 1: it's something It comes down to a vehicle sometimes often

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Speaker 1: and which way the ball bounces, and so it's I

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Speaker 1: want a team that can blow out another team more regularly.

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Speaker 1: So I think, yeah, yeah, I think the Raiders have

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00:21:27,040 --> 00:21:29,400
Speaker 1: been I think the Raiders were extremely lucky last year.

425
00:21:29,800 --> 00:21:31,919
Speaker 1: And I live in Las Vegas. I have a Raiders.

426
00:21:31,960 --> 00:21:33,680
Speaker 1: I have a Raiders license plate cover on my car

427
00:21:34,200 --> 00:21:37,159
Speaker 1: Um with the license plate dog named by the way Um.

428
00:21:37,200 --> 00:21:40,240
Speaker 1: And I you know, I went to three games last year.

429
00:21:40,240 --> 00:21:43,159
Speaker 1: I really enjoyed it. But the Raiders were extremely fortunate.

430
00:21:43,160 --> 00:21:45,560
Speaker 1: They won every single overtime game they were in. And

431
00:21:45,600 --> 00:21:48,400
Speaker 1: they've been a little unfortunate so far this year. They're

432
00:21:48,400 --> 00:21:50,040
Speaker 1: they're not They're not a bad team. They're not a

433
00:21:50,040 --> 00:21:51,440
Speaker 1: good team, but they're I don't think they're a bad

434
00:21:51,480 --> 00:21:55,000
Speaker 1: bad team, So I gotta ask you, um. Vegas opened

435
00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:56,840
Speaker 1: up one and a half on the look aheadline now

436
00:21:57,000 --> 00:22:02,560
Speaker 1: up to three against Denver of forementioned Denver, And again, like,

437
00:22:02,720 --> 00:22:04,639
Speaker 1: we can break down the matchups all we want about

438
00:22:04,680 --> 00:22:07,959
Speaker 1: the week Raiders offensive line for Football Focus came out

439
00:22:07,960 --> 00:22:10,440
Speaker 1: with rankings this week. Raiders are near the bottom. Denver's

440
00:22:10,440 --> 00:22:13,840
Speaker 1: got Gregory and Chub and um certain should be able

441
00:22:13,880 --> 00:22:15,960
Speaker 1: to travel with Adams, And like, we can break the

442
00:22:16,000 --> 00:22:19,360
Speaker 1: game down for twenty minutes, But why is the market

443
00:22:19,400 --> 00:22:22,160
Speaker 1: moving towards the Raiders here? I do not understand that.

444
00:22:22,440 --> 00:22:25,760
Speaker 1: And and you're way too smart to say, wow, this

445
00:22:25,880 --> 00:22:28,919
Speaker 1: is one of those uh you know, empty the playbook game.

446
00:22:28,960 --> 00:22:31,480
Speaker 1: Do you go all out and you must win? You

447
00:22:31,520 --> 00:22:34,080
Speaker 1: can't start oh and four? And I think next week

448
00:22:34,119 --> 00:22:36,400
Speaker 1: they have like Green Bay or something very tough. But like,

449
00:22:36,840 --> 00:22:39,640
Speaker 1: why do you think the market's going towards the raiders here?

450
00:22:40,280 --> 00:22:42,159
Speaker 1: You know, I think it's it's sometimes the fools air

451
00:22:42,200 --> 00:22:44,520
Speaker 1: and trying to analyze why market moves in a certain way.

452
00:22:45,000 --> 00:22:47,760
Speaker 1: You know, certainly sometimes there's fundamental information that's moving on

453
00:22:48,040 --> 00:22:49,680
Speaker 1: and I don't believe that to be the case here.

454
00:22:49,760 --> 00:22:52,119
Speaker 1: But again, I haven't been following the injury news super close.

455
00:22:52,760 --> 00:22:54,560
Speaker 1: To me, that number seems kind of close to where

456
00:22:54,560 --> 00:22:57,680
Speaker 1: it should be. Make Vegas minus two point two, so

457
00:22:58,920 --> 00:23:02,680
Speaker 1: very very close. I think any go ahead, you see

458
00:23:02,720 --> 00:23:04,200
Speaker 1: a lot of I mean, you do see a lot

459
00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:06,439
Speaker 1: of line moves over the course of a week in general,

460
00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:11,560
Speaker 1: and markets markets tend toward efficiency, So the closing line

461
00:23:11,600 --> 00:23:14,320
Speaker 1: is a much better prediction of what the where the

462
00:23:14,320 --> 00:23:16,600
Speaker 1: game will finish than the line than the look ahead

463
00:23:16,640 --> 00:23:18,879
Speaker 1: line was, or that the line earlier in the week is.

464
00:23:19,160 --> 00:23:21,120
Speaker 1: But you still do have a lot of line movements,

465
00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:23,320
Speaker 1: Like the average line move is is largely going to

466
00:23:23,400 --> 00:23:27,639
Speaker 1: be kind of noise driven, um, but overall it is

467
00:23:27,800 --> 00:23:31,080
Speaker 1: you know, the line moves are moving essentially the quote

468
00:23:31,080 --> 00:23:34,040
Speaker 1: correct way. So again I don't know in this particular

469
00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:38,000
Speaker 1: situation though Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk

470
00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:40,800
Speaker 1: lineup in the nation. Catch all of our shows at

471
00:23:40,800 --> 00:23:44,160
Speaker 1: Fox Sports Radio dot com and within the I Heart

472
00:23:44,240 --> 00:23:47,560
Speaker 1: Radio app search f s R to listen live. So

473
00:23:47,680 --> 00:23:50,199
Speaker 1: let's go to the biggest mover of the week, the

474
00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:54,000
Speaker 1: Patriots with maybe not mac Jones, although Belichick's playing all

475
00:23:54,000 --> 00:23:56,200
Speaker 1: those games. They were six and a half point dogs

476
00:23:56,200 --> 00:23:58,960
Speaker 1: in Green Bay and now the numbers going to nine

477
00:23:59,000 --> 00:24:02,600
Speaker 1: and a half now Belichick being KG and again yeah

478
00:24:02,640 --> 00:24:04,080
Speaker 1: it was ten and a half. I think that's when

479
00:24:04,119 --> 00:24:06,239
Speaker 1: Belichick started saying, well he might play. And then there

480
00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:08,440
Speaker 1: was a report that he's like in the facility getting

481
00:24:08,440 --> 00:24:11,200
Speaker 1: in on the on the play schemes or whatever they're

482
00:24:11,200 --> 00:24:14,400
Speaker 1: getting ready for the Packers. And I did see rufus

483
00:24:14,760 --> 00:24:17,840
Speaker 1: that Brian Hoyer hasn't one. I think he's lost his

484
00:24:17,920 --> 00:24:22,680
Speaker 1: last eleven games as a starting quarterback. Um, again, everything

485
00:24:22,680 --> 00:24:24,480
Speaker 1: here points to the Packers. I think the world is

486
00:24:24,520 --> 00:24:27,840
Speaker 1: going to be on Green Bay. But what what do

487
00:24:27,920 --> 00:24:29,879
Speaker 1: the number say? How much of a drop off are

488
00:24:29,880 --> 00:24:32,119
Speaker 1: we looking at from mac Jones to Brian Hoyer. I mean,

489
00:24:32,119 --> 00:24:34,560
Speaker 1: I think the markets baking that in so I show

490
00:24:34,600 --> 00:24:37,080
Speaker 1: a pretty big drop off and I'm probably a little

491
00:24:37,080 --> 00:24:39,600
Speaker 1: bit higher on mac Jones than most people, just because

492
00:24:39,640 --> 00:24:42,040
Speaker 1: I think the way we rate quarterbacks, if you look

493
00:24:42,080 --> 00:24:45,600
Speaker 1: at how well, um, how well New England played last

494
00:24:45,680 --> 00:24:48,040
Speaker 1: year and offense relative to sort of the years before

495
00:24:48,080 --> 00:24:51,200
Speaker 1: the year before when they had cam, when they had Hoyer,

496
00:24:51,440 --> 00:24:53,840
Speaker 1: you knows, essentially the fact that those other guys kind

497
00:24:53,840 --> 00:24:56,720
Speaker 1: of underachieved expectations makes it almost look like Matt Jones

498
00:24:56,800 --> 00:25:01,520
Speaker 1: was you know, is overachieving in a way. But I

499
00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:04,040
Speaker 1: make it a five point five point three point down grade,

500
00:25:04,160 --> 00:25:08,399
Speaker 1: and so with with um, with no mac Jones, I

501
00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:12,320
Speaker 1: make that line green Bay minus eight point eight. Mmm.

502
00:25:12,600 --> 00:25:14,320
Speaker 1: So so you you think the bet at nine and

503
00:25:14,320 --> 00:25:16,080
Speaker 1: a half or ten and a half is definitely Patriots.

504
00:25:16,119 --> 00:25:18,399
Speaker 1: I'm not going to take no play at nine and

505
00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:21,840
Speaker 1: a half. At ten and a half, I mean, I

506
00:25:22,119 --> 00:25:23,840
Speaker 1: still probably I'm not going to bet at myself at

507
00:25:23,840 --> 00:25:25,240
Speaker 1: ten and a half. I don't think that's enough of

508
00:25:25,280 --> 00:25:27,800
Speaker 1: an edge for me, just based on you know, yeah,

509
00:25:28,080 --> 00:25:30,960
Speaker 1: but if any side, right, if if I had to

510
00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:32,840
Speaker 1: pick a side, I would choose the Patriots, not the back.

511
00:25:33,359 --> 00:25:36,320
Speaker 1: Would you mind saying where your biggest edges this week

512
00:25:36,359 --> 00:25:39,080
Speaker 1: that you've seen for for week four. So I like

513
00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:42,080
Speaker 1: New Orleans a good amount here getting two and a

514
00:25:42,119 --> 00:25:45,040
Speaker 1: half points. I believe that's that's what it was yesterday

515
00:25:45,040 --> 00:25:48,040
Speaker 1: when I was, yeah, well, now have you baked in

516
00:25:48,080 --> 00:25:51,520
Speaker 1: the Jameis Winston Andy Dalton situation because Winston hasn't practiced

517
00:25:51,600 --> 00:25:54,200
Speaker 1: yet this week he's got that back ding and Andy

518
00:25:54,280 --> 00:25:57,560
Speaker 1: Dalton apparently he is in line to start, or maybe

519
00:25:57,560 --> 00:25:59,840
Speaker 1: Taysom Hill, who knows. But it's just more about the

520
00:26:00,000 --> 00:26:02,960
Speaker 1: Aints who might be down Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry or

521
00:26:03,000 --> 00:26:07,520
Speaker 1: is this about the Vikings and um them leaving late

522
00:26:07,560 --> 00:26:09,679
Speaker 1: for London. I'd say it's more. I mean, it's more

523
00:26:09,680 --> 00:26:11,520
Speaker 1: about the Saints. First off, I don't think there's a

524
00:26:11,560 --> 00:26:15,119
Speaker 1: tremendous difference in quarterback play between Jamis and Andy Dalton.

525
00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:17,439
Speaker 1: And I think, you know, the Saints are not a

526
00:26:17,440 --> 00:26:20,120
Speaker 1: team that's gonna get absolutely murdered by a quarterback injury.

527
00:26:20,320 --> 00:26:22,440
Speaker 1: They just they have some depth there. I don't want

528
00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:27,119
Speaker 1: to say it's like they have depth there. Dalton was

529
00:26:27,160 --> 00:26:30,280
Speaker 1: a very good starter or a decent starter for many

530
00:26:30,359 --> 00:26:32,399
Speaker 1: many years. He was he was solid. I mean, he

531
00:26:32,760 --> 00:26:34,879
Speaker 1: never could win a playoff game, but and Dalton was

532
00:26:34,920 --> 00:26:37,840
Speaker 1: a solid starting quarterback in the NFL is my dog

533
00:26:37,960 --> 00:26:43,680
Speaker 1: freaks out. I'm on the podcast Golden Retriever. He's incredible,

534
00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:45,920
Speaker 1: but he's making some appearances on the podcast this week.

535
00:26:46,240 --> 00:26:48,399
Speaker 1: Nice it's an noisy one. Yes, I will say with

536
00:26:48,400 --> 00:26:50,679
Speaker 1: the Saints that they they if you look at the

537
00:26:50,680 --> 00:26:53,480
Speaker 1: final scores of their games, it's it's sort of paints

538
00:26:53,480 --> 00:26:55,800
Speaker 1: a pretty bleak picture. But they've played better than the

539
00:26:55,840 --> 00:26:59,439
Speaker 1: scores indicate their negative six and turnover differential. I actually

540
00:26:59,440 --> 00:27:02,800
Speaker 1: had them like my I do these game grades each week,

541
00:27:02,840 --> 00:27:07,879
Speaker 1: which kind of say it controls for the the opponent's strength,

542
00:27:07,920 --> 00:27:10,719
Speaker 1: home field advantage, and sort of tries to take out

543
00:27:10,800 --> 00:27:14,040
Speaker 1: the luck factor. So it waits a team's performance by

544
00:27:14,200 --> 00:27:18,840
Speaker 1: the statistics that are most predictive going forward. And so sorry,

545
00:27:18,840 --> 00:27:21,399
Speaker 1: it's a very long winded explanation a way of grading

546
00:27:21,400 --> 00:27:22,760
Speaker 1: a team. It's it's a way of grading a team

547
00:27:22,800 --> 00:27:26,199
Speaker 1: based on on the things that matter going forward, predicularly

548
00:27:26,320 --> 00:27:29,720
Speaker 1: not retro. Is this on unabated or no um? I

549
00:27:29,760 --> 00:27:33,000
Speaker 1: tweeted out this week. I'm going to try to get

550
00:27:33,040 --> 00:27:35,800
Speaker 1: it on unabated next week, but okay, I tweeted out

551
00:27:36,119 --> 00:27:39,080
Speaker 1: um game grades for NFL and college football, as well

552
00:27:39,119 --> 00:27:41,359
Speaker 1: as sort of these unit rankings I do. And again

553
00:27:41,480 --> 00:27:43,680
Speaker 1: you're you're not, like, well, I don't know what the

554
00:27:43,680 --> 00:27:46,000
Speaker 1: Pro Football Focus guys. Do you think they watch every

555
00:27:46,000 --> 00:27:48,240
Speaker 1: single play and graded or is it a computer doing it?

556
00:27:48,640 --> 00:27:50,720
Speaker 1: And and you know, do you want to talk about

557
00:27:50,720 --> 00:27:54,240
Speaker 1: how you come about these game grades? So Pro Football

558
00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:56,600
Speaker 1: Focus they have people charting every single play and grading

559
00:27:56,600 --> 00:27:58,280
Speaker 1: every single player there, so they have they have a

560
00:27:58,280 --> 00:28:01,360
Speaker 1: big staff doing that, and having humans do it comes

561
00:28:01,400 --> 00:28:03,879
Speaker 1: with its own problems to there. There's there's an upside

562
00:28:03,880 --> 00:28:06,240
Speaker 1: to humans and a downside to humans. Same as computers,

563
00:28:07,359 --> 00:28:10,320
Speaker 1: um mine are just based on the statistics. So it's

564
00:28:10,359 --> 00:28:14,119
Speaker 1: just saying overall, like we can we we we or

565
00:28:14,240 --> 00:28:17,399
Speaker 1: D waiting garbage time we are you know, if it

566
00:28:17,640 --> 00:28:21,480
Speaker 1: let's say a team um had really bad fumble luck,

567
00:28:21,520 --> 00:28:24,040
Speaker 1: you know that's going to be where we're essentially stripping

568
00:28:24,040 --> 00:28:26,240
Speaker 1: the fumble luck out of the game score and saying, okay,

569
00:28:26,280 --> 00:28:28,680
Speaker 1: this is how a team, you know, if the team

570
00:28:28,680 --> 00:28:30,639
Speaker 1: had played this way, this is how we would expect

571
00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:33,960
Speaker 1: them to do on a neutral field against an average opponent.

572
00:28:34,600 --> 00:28:39,120
Speaker 1: Mm hm, can you elaborate on d waiting garbage time?

573
00:28:39,240 --> 00:28:42,520
Speaker 1: Or yeah, how do you define garbage time? So we

574
00:28:42,600 --> 00:28:45,040
Speaker 1: use an algorithm to do that. So it's based on

575
00:28:45,080 --> 00:28:49,160
Speaker 1: the leverage of the I'll call the leverage index. So basically,

576
00:28:49,600 --> 00:28:51,880
Speaker 1: think about each play in a game. You could say,

577
00:28:51,880 --> 00:28:54,000
Speaker 1: this is the effect it has on the team winning

578
00:28:54,000 --> 00:28:57,000
Speaker 1: the game. So there's like an like and so for example,

579
00:28:57,000 --> 00:28:59,640
Speaker 1: I would use a leverage index of one would mean average.

580
00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:02,360
Speaker 1: This is this play has an average impact on the

581
00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:04,960
Speaker 1: team winning a game. If you're down forty three in

582
00:29:05,000 --> 00:29:09,600
Speaker 1: the fourth quarter, a play one play has zero impact, right,

583
00:29:09,640 --> 00:29:11,840
Speaker 1: And so so we have an algorithm that's based on

584
00:29:11,880 --> 00:29:15,240
Speaker 1: the leverage of a situation. So essentially in these extremely

585
00:29:15,280 --> 00:29:17,440
Speaker 1: low leverage situations where the game where where a play

586
00:29:17,480 --> 00:29:19,920
Speaker 1: has absolutely no impact on the final or on whether

587
00:29:19,960 --> 00:29:22,840
Speaker 1: team wins or not, we are um, we're de waiting

588
00:29:22,880 --> 00:29:25,240
Speaker 1: it in a way that is best. The best predicts

589
00:29:25,320 --> 00:29:30,040
Speaker 1: future performance. So it's it's that phrase right there. Rufus

590
00:29:30,120 --> 00:29:33,160
Speaker 1: is at the root of all any gambler future performance

591
00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:35,880
Speaker 1: because almost everything isn't looking in the past. And the

592
00:29:36,840 --> 00:29:39,480
Speaker 1: reason everybody I think love's NFL obviously football is fun

593
00:29:39,520 --> 00:29:41,840
Speaker 1: and the games are just once a week, is it's

594
00:29:41,840 --> 00:29:45,360
Speaker 1: the toughest market to crack, like for instance, Washington Dallas.

595
00:29:45,520 --> 00:29:49,200
Speaker 1: Um everybody, every single friend, you know, you text people

596
00:29:49,200 --> 00:29:51,400
Speaker 1: and you I go to Fox and I talk to people.

597
00:29:51,680 --> 00:29:54,320
Speaker 1: Everybody thinks Dallas is aside. This weekend, I was like,

598
00:29:54,560 --> 00:29:57,000
Speaker 1: why you got a backup quarterback? And they're like, oh,

599
00:29:57,040 --> 00:29:59,920
Speaker 1: he's playing well great and Washington stinks. People just base

600
00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:03,680
Speaker 1: sickly go off what they saw last week. Is there

601
00:30:03,720 --> 00:30:06,760
Speaker 1: a way to drill into these gamblers that like throw

602
00:30:06,800 --> 00:30:09,080
Speaker 1: that crap out the window? Philadelphia has looked awesome, but

603
00:30:09,160 --> 00:30:11,680
Speaker 1: be careful this week against Jacksonville that kind of thing.

604
00:30:12,040 --> 00:30:13,520
Speaker 1: You know, I don't know if there's a way, you

605
00:30:13,600 --> 00:30:15,880
Speaker 1: better let me know. What's funny though with that Dallas game,

606
00:30:15,960 --> 00:30:18,000
Speaker 1: is that Dallas think about the lack of respect they

607
00:30:18,040 --> 00:30:21,320
Speaker 1: got when they hosted Cincinnati. They were a touchdown underdog

608
00:30:21,320 --> 00:30:23,840
Speaker 1: and that game got even higher and and I was

609
00:30:23,920 --> 00:30:25,320
Speaker 1: I was kind of shot at that line. I thought

610
00:30:25,360 --> 00:30:26,800
Speaker 1: the game should like, I thought they should have been

611
00:30:26,840 --> 00:30:29,640
Speaker 1: less than a three point underdog. So and and now

612
00:30:29,680 --> 00:30:32,280
Speaker 1: everybody's like, well, it turns out Cooper Rush doesn't stink,

613
00:30:33,000 --> 00:30:36,120
Speaker 1: and so now it's like the market is overreacted the

614
00:30:36,200 --> 00:30:38,800
Speaker 1: other way. Did Cooper Rush not stink or has he

615
00:30:38,880 --> 00:30:45,040
Speaker 1: just not made a mistake has no turnovers in two games, right, Yes,

616
00:30:45,840 --> 00:30:50,280
Speaker 1: But turnovers are more noisy, more random than you know

617
00:30:50,360 --> 00:30:53,400
Speaker 1: for something like yards per play or play success. So

618
00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:58,000
Speaker 1: I mean, you can have a quarterback, you know. I'm

619
00:30:58,000 --> 00:30:59,600
Speaker 1: trying to think of a good example of somebody that

620
00:31:00,160 --> 00:31:02,240
Speaker 1: no interceptions over the course of a Gazilian games and

621
00:31:02,240 --> 00:31:05,160
Speaker 1: then had a a streak of a lot of interceptions.

622
00:31:05,160 --> 00:31:08,720
Speaker 1: But it it happens. I mean, I think that. And

623
00:31:08,720 --> 00:31:12,160
Speaker 1: and the thing is, the impact of turnovers are pretty

624
00:31:12,240 --> 00:31:15,760
Speaker 1: disproportional to how much control the team has over in

625
00:31:15,800 --> 00:31:19,000
Speaker 1: the In over that statistic, I guess we can wrap

626
00:31:19,120 --> 00:31:22,000
Speaker 1: up with um probably the best game of the weekend.

627
00:31:22,040 --> 00:31:24,720
Speaker 1: I think maybe Baltimore Buffalo. I'm in one of these

628
00:31:24,720 --> 00:31:26,760
Speaker 1: contests and I've I've got a pretty good start going

629
00:31:26,800 --> 00:31:29,720
Speaker 1: and I really want to take Baltimore, but it's just

630
00:31:29,800 --> 00:31:32,760
Speaker 1: tough to get in front of Buffalo and how good

631
00:31:32,760 --> 00:31:35,160
Speaker 1: they can be with Josh Allen again, injury report for

632
00:31:35,200 --> 00:31:38,480
Speaker 1: Buffalo is brutal. What do your numbers say here? I mean,

633
00:31:39,040 --> 00:31:40,520
Speaker 1: I know, from a yards per play I think the

634
00:31:40,600 --> 00:31:42,920
Speaker 1: Ravens lead the NFL and yards per play offensively, but

635
00:31:42,960 --> 00:31:45,760
Speaker 1: defensively they've been hemorrhaging some yards. Yeah, so I make

636
00:31:45,800 --> 00:31:48,440
Speaker 1: Buffalo two and a half point favorite here. But this

637
00:31:48,520 --> 00:31:50,800
Speaker 1: is an interesting game in the fact that Buffalo is

638
00:31:50,840 --> 00:31:52,800
Speaker 1: coming off a brutal game in the heat. They had

639
00:31:52,880 --> 00:31:54,880
Speaker 1: ninety offensive plays. I mean, I don't know if you

640
00:31:54,920 --> 00:31:56,960
Speaker 1: saw this picture at the end of the game, Josh

641
00:31:56,960 --> 00:31:59,479
Speaker 1: Allen was being held up by two uh, it looks like,

642
00:31:59,640 --> 00:32:02,680
Speaker 1: I mean, everybody was just dying. They were gassed. And

643
00:32:02,760 --> 00:32:05,320
Speaker 1: so the question is what is the impact of that

644
00:32:05,360 --> 00:32:07,840
Speaker 1: going to be? And actually that's one of those things, Jason,

645
00:32:07,840 --> 00:32:10,720
Speaker 1: that that's really hard to quantify. I mean, you know,

646
00:32:10,760 --> 00:32:13,000
Speaker 1: I have all this previous dad, and I could say, okay,

647
00:32:13,040 --> 00:32:16,200
Speaker 1: teams that played in Miami before and you know, but

648
00:32:15,720 --> 00:32:19,760
Speaker 1: but not every game that's played in Florida with eighty

649
00:32:19,800 --> 00:32:22,480
Speaker 1: five degree heat and humidity is necessarily gonna have the

650
00:32:22,480 --> 00:32:25,200
Speaker 1: same impact that that game. It just looked physically grueling.

651
00:32:25,280 --> 00:32:28,280
Speaker 1: So this is one of those where if you have

652
00:32:28,360 --> 00:32:31,040
Speaker 1: sort of a stance on that, um, you know, that's

653
00:32:31,120 --> 00:32:34,040
Speaker 1: kind of that that will definitely play into your handicap. Sorry,

654
00:32:34,040 --> 00:32:38,320
Speaker 1: one last question justin Herbert. Obviously, the rib injury decimated

655
00:32:38,360 --> 00:32:41,200
Speaker 1: offensive line receiving core down line going against him. But

656
00:32:41,320 --> 00:32:43,960
Speaker 1: from a prop market, you have to be insane to

657
00:32:44,080 --> 00:32:48,760
Speaker 1: bet justin Herbert overs at this point, right, I tend

658
00:32:48,800 --> 00:32:53,720
Speaker 1: to avoid betting overs in general. Right, yeah, yeah, But

659
00:32:53,840 --> 00:32:55,720
Speaker 1: again it all depends on what the number is, what

660
00:32:55,800 --> 00:32:58,640
Speaker 1: the market number is. I mean, I know the props. Yeah,

661
00:32:58,480 --> 00:33:00,880
Speaker 1: you're an unders guy. And obviously by the way we

662
00:33:00,880 --> 00:33:03,280
Speaker 1: can wrap up on this, Um, what are you doing

663
00:33:03,280 --> 00:33:04,800
Speaker 1: with the live golf? Are you doing a lot of

664
00:33:04,840 --> 00:33:07,600
Speaker 1: gambling on that stuff? Oh? Definitely? How has that been

665
00:33:07,680 --> 00:33:10,320
Speaker 1: lucrative or no, It's been quite good for me so far. Really,

666
00:33:10,800 --> 00:33:14,320
Speaker 1: it's interesting because there's there's new courses, and I feel

667
00:33:14,320 --> 00:33:20,280
Speaker 1: like new courses can sometimes offer opportunity. Um, because I

668
00:33:20,320 --> 00:33:22,920
Speaker 1: guess the way I approach things, I'm able to get

669
00:33:22,960 --> 00:33:25,200
Speaker 1: some insight into how a course is going to play,

670
00:33:25,280 --> 00:33:26,920
Speaker 1: even though we have no data on it. And so

671
00:33:26,960 --> 00:33:28,320
Speaker 1: I think that's a bit of an advantage for me,

672
00:33:28,480 --> 00:33:31,560
Speaker 1: just based on just some of the attributes of the course.

673
00:33:31,960 --> 00:33:34,400
Speaker 1: So so can I ask, like, how do you get

674
00:33:34,400 --> 00:33:38,040
Speaker 1: this insight into the course? Are you talking to course designers?

675
00:33:38,080 --> 00:33:40,960
Speaker 1: I I don't know, just quantitatively. I mean, so if

676
00:33:40,960 --> 00:33:42,920
Speaker 1: I know that it's a tree lined course, if I

677
00:33:42,960 --> 00:33:45,680
Speaker 1: know the if I know the width of the fairway.

678
00:33:45,760 --> 00:33:47,280
Speaker 1: That's I mean, I'm not gonna be able to get

679
00:33:47,280 --> 00:33:52,400
Speaker 1: that on every course, but um knowing just knowing the

680
00:33:52,480 --> 00:33:55,720
Speaker 1: how the whole's profile. You know a five a part

681
00:33:55,800 --> 00:33:59,920
Speaker 1: four that three yards is going to favor act play.

682
00:34:00,040 --> 00:34:02,480
Speaker 1: Is that more accurate generally than a par four that's

683
00:34:02,480 --> 00:34:05,239
Speaker 1: four yards where distance is gonna matter more so? So

684
00:34:05,280 --> 00:34:08,400
Speaker 1: there's I mean that that's a very simple, simple, you know,

685
00:34:08,440 --> 00:34:10,759
Speaker 1: explanation right there. But there are sort of ways to

686
00:34:10,760 --> 00:34:13,520
Speaker 1: get some insight. And are you you're big you play

687
00:34:13,560 --> 00:34:15,319
Speaker 1: a lot of golfer now living in Vegas, I would

688
00:34:15,360 --> 00:34:18,279
Speaker 1: assume so I I have this year, although I've taken

689
00:34:18,320 --> 00:34:21,040
Speaker 1: like the last month off because you know, my game

690
00:34:21,080 --> 00:34:24,680
Speaker 1: has gone downhill quickly. I I had this like amazing

691
00:34:24,719 --> 00:34:27,000
Speaker 1: improvement early in the season and I got I got up,

692
00:34:27,000 --> 00:34:29,040
Speaker 1: I got my handicapped down to a four point eight.

693
00:34:29,360 --> 00:34:33,000
Speaker 1: And then I went like I ejected, like you get

694
00:34:33,000 --> 00:34:36,719
Speaker 1: down to a four personal personal coach or anything. No.

695
00:34:36,800 --> 00:34:38,600
Speaker 1: I was like playing like five days a week, just

696
00:34:38,640 --> 00:34:40,759
Speaker 1: going out in the evening, playing like a ninety minute

697
00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:43,520
Speaker 1: round before sunset. It was like fantastic, A great great

698
00:34:43,520 --> 00:34:46,200
Speaker 1: way in the Vegas summer, you were doing that. No,

699
00:34:46,360 --> 00:34:49,640
Speaker 1: this is April May. Oh okay, okay, wow, I was

700
00:34:49,680 --> 00:34:52,320
Speaker 1: back east. I was back East for for the summer.

701
00:34:52,360 --> 00:34:54,160
Speaker 1: And my brother and I have this thing we called

702
00:34:54,200 --> 00:34:56,239
Speaker 1: the Peabody Cup. We have this trophy every year. It's

703
00:34:56,640 --> 00:34:59,359
Speaker 1: you know, it's each match between us as a Peabody point.

704
00:34:59,400 --> 00:35:01,600
Speaker 1: And I was like up four points and um he

705
00:35:01,640 --> 00:35:04,720
Speaker 1: won last year, so I and so he's just absolutely

706
00:35:04,719 --> 00:35:07,759
Speaker 1: obliterated me since then. So wow. You guys do a

707
00:35:07,760 --> 00:35:10,000
Speaker 1: lot of golf. Man, That's that's an expensive hobby. But

708
00:35:10,000 --> 00:35:11,600
Speaker 1: you know, when you win as much gambling as you do,

709
00:35:11,640 --> 00:35:14,600
Speaker 1: it doesn't really matter, all right, rufus Peabody. You gotta

710
00:35:14,640 --> 00:35:17,600
Speaker 1: check out his site, Unabated. He does a podcast with

711
00:35:17,680 --> 00:35:20,920
Speaker 1: Jeff mob Bet the Process. What else do you have?

712
00:35:21,080 --> 00:35:24,040
Speaker 1: You're not still doing stuff for ESPN, are you? No? No,

713
00:35:24,640 --> 00:35:26,880
Speaker 1: it's I mean Bet the Process. We're Actually we had

714
00:35:26,960 --> 00:35:29,799
Speaker 1: James Holsaur known as better than as Jeffardy James on

715
00:35:29,840 --> 00:35:33,680
Speaker 1: the This Week. Yeah he's um, he's actually a big

716
00:35:33,680 --> 00:35:37,160
Speaker 1: Bet the Process listener. But he um, he also is

717
00:35:37,160 --> 00:35:39,439
Speaker 1: a sports better. I mean that's his trade. So, uh,

718
00:35:39,719 --> 00:35:42,359
Speaker 1: it was we had a very interesting conversation and does

719
00:35:42,400 --> 00:35:45,000
Speaker 1: he talk about uh, and I is he an NFL

720
00:35:45,040 --> 00:35:48,719
Speaker 1: better he does bet NFL um, I think right now

721
00:35:48,760 --> 00:35:50,680
Speaker 1: this year he's betting a little bit less in terms

722
00:35:50,760 --> 00:35:53,920
Speaker 1: of futures. But he Um, you'll have to listen if

723
00:35:53,920 --> 00:35:55,719
Speaker 1: you want to know. Yes, I will. I will check

724
00:35:55,760 --> 00:35:58,280
Speaker 1: it out and hopefully no digs at me from Jeff.

725
00:35:58,480 --> 00:36:00,600
Speaker 1: He loves to just needle me. That guy. I can't

726
00:36:00,600 --> 00:36:04,879
Speaker 1: I look forward to me. He's I mean, I mean

727
00:36:05,080 --> 00:36:09,719
Speaker 1: Jeff like I wouldn't take it personally. Jeff is uh No,

728
00:36:09,840 --> 00:36:12,960
Speaker 1: I mean Jeff gives his opinion and it's like Jeff.

729
00:36:13,440 --> 00:36:15,520
Speaker 1: I mean, when Jeff criticizes me for something, I have

730
00:36:15,560 --> 00:36:19,279
Speaker 1: all the respect, Like I know that he probably he's

731
00:36:19,320 --> 00:36:20,880
Speaker 1: onto something, right, I mean Jeff, I have a ton

732
00:36:20,920 --> 00:36:23,360
Speaker 1: of respect for him. He's really really intelligent guy. Yeah.

733
00:36:23,440 --> 00:36:26,440
Speaker 1: But um, also Preston Preston speaks highly of him. So

734
00:36:26,480 --> 00:36:28,840
Speaker 1: and I know Preston pretty well. Um, so if Preston

735
00:36:29,000 --> 00:36:31,760
Speaker 1: vouches for him, then he's probably a good dude. Yeah. Anyway,

736
00:36:31,880 --> 00:36:34,520
Speaker 1: check out unobated dot com. We have a free you

737
00:36:34,560 --> 00:36:37,359
Speaker 1: can do a free one week trial. Um. We also

738
00:36:37,400 --> 00:36:39,200
Speaker 1: have a lot of stuff that's not behind the paywall.

739
00:36:39,440 --> 00:36:41,839
Speaker 1: So we have a compare lines tool. So I don't

740
00:36:41,840 --> 00:36:43,880
Speaker 1: know if you ever play teasers, Jason or anything like that.

741
00:36:44,040 --> 00:36:46,719
Speaker 1: Of course, who doesn't play teaser? Well, we have we

742
00:36:46,760 --> 00:36:48,279
Speaker 1: have a thing where you can put in you can

743
00:36:48,360 --> 00:36:51,239
Speaker 1: say one one plus one point five minus one ten,

744
00:36:51,280 --> 00:36:52,919
Speaker 1: what should the price be? A plus seven and a half?

745
00:36:53,080 --> 00:36:56,200
Speaker 1: You know'll give you that price, and so you can Yeah,

746
00:36:56,520 --> 00:36:58,400
Speaker 1: this feels like a good teaser week, does it not?

747
00:36:58,520 --> 00:37:00,600
Speaker 1: Which I mean I think there's eight or nine games

748
00:37:00,640 --> 00:37:03,719
Speaker 1: at a fie goal or less. So then using the

749
00:37:03,719 --> 00:37:06,839
Speaker 1: teaser strategy, you'd want to go up through the three

750
00:37:06,840 --> 00:37:08,719
Speaker 1: and the seven. Right, Yeah, the only time you should

751
00:37:08,760 --> 00:37:10,359
Speaker 1: tease is if you can tease through both the three

752
00:37:10,360 --> 00:37:12,200
Speaker 1: and the seven. But you can use the tools that

753
00:37:12,280 --> 00:37:14,680
Speaker 1: innovated the you know to to figure out what the

754
00:37:14,680 --> 00:37:16,600
Speaker 1: price should be on each of those legs the teaser

755
00:37:16,640 --> 00:37:18,840
Speaker 1: and so. And based on the price that you're actually

756
00:37:18,920 --> 00:37:20,560
Speaker 1: offered for the teaser, you can figure out if it's

757
00:37:20,560 --> 00:37:22,560
Speaker 1: actually a good teas or not. And we will be

758
00:37:22,640 --> 00:37:25,399
Speaker 1: debuting a product actually that's a a teaser product, which

759
00:37:25,440 --> 00:37:27,160
Speaker 1: we already you can already do all this stuff on

760
00:37:27,200 --> 00:37:29,920
Speaker 1: the site, so this isn't revolutionary, but we'll actually have

761
00:37:29,960 --> 00:37:32,600
Speaker 1: a product that lets you click and say this game,

762
00:37:32,680 --> 00:37:34,560
Speaker 1: this game, tease at six points and say what the

763
00:37:34,560 --> 00:37:38,600
Speaker 1: price should be? Wow, that's awesome. Yeah, yeah, I like

764
00:37:38,640 --> 00:37:41,239
Speaker 1: a good teaser. Who doesn't. All right, Rufus Peabody, thanks

765
00:37:41,239 --> 00:37:43,840
Speaker 1: a lot man, Talk to you soon. Hey. Thanks. Fox

766
00:37:43,880 --> 00:37:47,000
Speaker 1: Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in the nation.

767
00:37:47,320 --> 00:37:50,239
Speaker 1: Catch all of our shows at Fox sports Radio dot

768
00:37:50,280 --> 00:37:53,279
Speaker 1: com and within the I Heart Radio app search f

769
00:37:53,600 --> 00:37:58,359
Speaker 1: s R to listen live. The only thing better than

770
00:37:58,440 --> 00:38:02,640
Speaker 1: sitting on your couch watching the game. He's making money

771
00:38:02,680 --> 00:38:08,640
Speaker 1: while you do it. Here's your best beat. Always enjoy

772
00:38:08,719 --> 00:38:12,440
Speaker 1: Rufus Peabody breaking down the games. He's a thoughtful gentleman,

773
00:38:12,480 --> 00:38:16,480
Speaker 1: I'll say that for sure. Very intelligent obviously, and hopefully

774
00:38:16,520 --> 00:38:20,840
Speaker 1: we can utilize unabated to get some winners on the field.

775
00:38:20,880 --> 00:38:24,759
Speaker 1: So obviously got the win with Bengals in Survivor and

776
00:38:24,880 --> 00:38:27,680
Speaker 1: Bengals bet that we gave out Monday on the podcast.

777
00:38:27,960 --> 00:38:30,640
Speaker 1: That was a winner cash. Great start to week four.

778
00:38:30,920 --> 00:38:34,080
Speaker 1: Here's what I'm looking at now in the contest. Remember

779
00:38:34,120 --> 00:38:38,839
Speaker 1: ten and five and essentially you need to go four

780
00:38:38,840 --> 00:38:41,319
Speaker 1: in one or five and oh every week to have

781
00:38:41,400 --> 00:38:43,839
Speaker 1: a chance. There's two guys who are fifteen and oh

782
00:38:44,200 --> 00:38:46,240
Speaker 1: four million dollars of stake. You need to do everything

783
00:38:46,280 --> 00:38:50,480
Speaker 1: you can. Hence that's why I'm constantly looking at looking

784
00:38:50,480 --> 00:38:53,560
Speaker 1: for any edge i can get injury reports. Whether here's

785
00:38:53,560 --> 00:38:56,640
Speaker 1: what I'm looking at right now. Uh, Baltimore plus three

786
00:38:56,640 --> 00:38:58,239
Speaker 1: and a half was available earlier in the week, It's

787
00:38:58,280 --> 00:39:00,760
Speaker 1: at three now. I think I'll take three in the contest.

788
00:39:00,800 --> 00:39:02,880
Speaker 1: I like Baltimore's chances. I know there's a lot of

789
00:39:02,920 --> 00:39:05,960
Speaker 1: stuff out there about well, Lamar has been killing the

790
00:39:05,960 --> 00:39:09,640
Speaker 1: Blitz all season. Uh, He's the number one quarterback in

791
00:39:09,680 --> 00:39:12,080
Speaker 1: almost every advanced stat against the Blitz. He has seven

792
00:39:12,080 --> 00:39:14,839
Speaker 1: touchdown passes in the last two weeks against the Blitz. Yeah, yeah,

793
00:39:14,880 --> 00:39:17,359
Speaker 1: I get all that. But Buffalo doesn't blitz Jay. They

794
00:39:17,400 --> 00:39:19,160
Speaker 1: don't need to. They can get home with four. Okay,

795
00:39:19,200 --> 00:39:22,360
Speaker 1: I understand that. So guess what the reason these teams

796
00:39:22,360 --> 00:39:25,400
Speaker 1: blitz is because Lamar. If you try to play zone

797
00:39:25,560 --> 00:39:28,399
Speaker 1: or man, Lamar's just gonna run all over you. He's

798
00:39:28,440 --> 00:39:30,200
Speaker 1: proven he has over a hundred rushing ards east the

799
00:39:30,239 --> 00:39:32,799
Speaker 1: last two weeks. I don't really know what his kryptonite is.

800
00:39:32,960 --> 00:39:35,239
Speaker 1: I'm hoping that the Buffalo Bills do not have an

801
00:39:35,239 --> 00:39:36,920
Speaker 1: answer for it and come up with it on the

802
00:39:36,960 --> 00:39:41,520
Speaker 1: fly again. Jim Harbaugh, underdog at home doesn't happen often.

803
00:39:42,600 --> 00:39:46,080
Speaker 1: Lamar underdog at home almost never happens. I'm going with Baltimore.

804
00:39:46,360 --> 00:39:49,400
Speaker 1: Give me Baltimore plus three. Texans we talked about again

805
00:39:49,400 --> 00:39:51,880
Speaker 1: on Monday plus six and a half against the Chargers.

806
00:39:51,880 --> 00:39:53,640
Speaker 1: Since then, it's gone down to five. It was four

807
00:39:53,640 --> 00:39:55,120
Speaker 1: and a half and then pop back up to five,

808
00:39:55,120 --> 00:39:58,280
Speaker 1: which is like the deadest number. I think under eight.

809
00:39:59,120 --> 00:40:02,719
Speaker 1: And the Texans is you know, the Davis Mills. I

810
00:40:02,719 --> 00:40:04,560
Speaker 1: gave you the stats, Davis Mills at home, his money

811
00:40:05,160 --> 00:40:08,000
Speaker 1: boasts now on the I R. The Chargers are walking wounded,

812
00:40:08,200 --> 00:40:09,920
Speaker 1: you know, so Keenan Allen was given a go at

813
00:40:09,920 --> 00:40:14,120
Speaker 1: practice and had to leave early because his hamstring was

814
00:40:14,160 --> 00:40:16,839
Speaker 1: flaring up. Like they just can't get healthy. I don't

815
00:40:16,840 --> 00:40:18,720
Speaker 1: know that. I'm taking the Texans on the money line.

816
00:40:19,160 --> 00:40:22,040
Speaker 1: They did stomp out the Chargers last year. I do

817
00:40:22,120 --> 00:40:24,799
Speaker 1: think Brandon Staley will do anything in his power not

818
00:40:24,880 --> 00:40:27,640
Speaker 1: to lose this game, but probably go for all fourth downs.

819
00:40:27,840 --> 00:40:31,040
Speaker 1: I would not be playing the Chargers kicker this week

820
00:40:31,120 --> 00:40:33,200
Speaker 1: in fantasy because they're just gonna go for everything on

821
00:40:33,280 --> 00:40:36,200
Speaker 1: fourth down. But like we saw with two, a guy

822
00:40:36,239 --> 00:40:39,560
Speaker 1: coming off an injury to it gets another concussion out

823
00:40:39,719 --> 00:40:41,759
Speaker 1: his backup Teddy Bridgewater could get the job done. Do

824
00:40:41,760 --> 00:40:44,239
Speaker 1: you trust Chase Daniel? I don't, so I'm taking the

825
00:40:44,239 --> 00:40:48,560
Speaker 1: Texans plus five. Uh. The next up, Chicago, Bass. I

826
00:40:48,640 --> 00:40:50,480
Speaker 1: know we got a lot of Bears listeners in Chicago

827
00:40:50,520 --> 00:40:53,160
Speaker 1: because I can see the analytics on my Instagram and

828
00:40:53,200 --> 00:40:56,360
Speaker 1: how many fans are from our listeners or whatever followers

829
00:40:56,360 --> 00:40:59,680
Speaker 1: are from Chicago, and it's like probably the sixth largest

830
00:40:59,719 --> 00:41:02,920
Speaker 1: city of my of my followers on I G. Just

831
00:41:03,000 --> 00:41:05,560
Speaker 1: a nugget that's kind of irrelevant, but whatever, I like

832
00:41:05,640 --> 00:41:07,200
Speaker 1: the Bears this weekend. I know I've been bashing him

833
00:41:07,239 --> 00:41:09,239
Speaker 1: a lot on Cowherd Show, and I see you guys

834
00:41:09,239 --> 00:41:12,400
Speaker 1: coming up in my Twitter mentions. But again, why should

835
00:41:12,440 --> 00:41:15,600
Speaker 1: Daniel Jones be favorite against anybody at all? They were

836
00:41:15,640 --> 00:41:20,120
Speaker 1: just favorite against Cooper Rush and lost outright, Like they're

837
00:41:20,160 --> 00:41:23,000
Speaker 1: they're not a good football team. Can they shut down

838
00:41:23,080 --> 00:41:26,360
Speaker 1: justin fields? Sure? Is the Bears defense good enough to

839
00:41:26,360 --> 00:41:29,320
Speaker 1: get pressure on Daniel Jones and creates some turnovers? Of course,

840
00:41:29,680 --> 00:41:33,000
Speaker 1: and as we always talk about, bet Danny Dimes on

841
00:41:33,040 --> 00:41:36,279
Speaker 1: the road fade him at home. It's like gambling one

842
00:41:36,320 --> 00:41:37,719
Speaker 1: on one for the New York Giants. We did it

843
00:41:37,800 --> 00:41:40,759
Speaker 1: last season to success, and I would try it again

844
00:41:40,760 --> 00:41:41,759
Speaker 1: in this year. If you can get the three and

845
00:41:41,760 --> 00:41:43,879
Speaker 1: a half, great, I think you gotta take the three.

846
00:41:43,880 --> 00:41:46,520
Speaker 1: If not, this one is kind of a hold your nose,

847
00:41:46,560 --> 00:41:51,440
Speaker 1: plug and play. The Arizona Cardinals. Yes, the Arizona Cardinals

848
00:41:52,200 --> 00:41:57,080
Speaker 1: offense is unwatchable. You've got Kingsbury and Kyler Murray taking

849
00:41:57,160 --> 00:41:59,759
Speaker 1: jabs at one another. I had a buddy sent me

850
00:42:00,040 --> 00:42:03,560
Speaker 1: a lengthy story about why is Kyler Murray not running?

851
00:42:03,920 --> 00:42:06,439
Speaker 1: And some of the numbers. When Kyler Murray runs, when

852
00:42:06,560 --> 00:42:09,520
Speaker 1: Kyler has ten rushing attempts, the Cardinals are nine and one.

853
00:42:09,920 --> 00:42:13,040
Speaker 1: When he doesn't see more than five carries, Arizona is three,

854
00:42:13,320 --> 00:42:18,360
Speaker 1: seventeen and one. When he rushes less than four times, oh,

855
00:42:18,400 --> 00:42:21,960
Speaker 1: eleven and one. And what's crazy is he's not running

856
00:42:22,000 --> 00:42:25,400
Speaker 1: at all this year. He has carried fewer than five

857
00:42:25,440 --> 00:42:27,880
Speaker 1: times in each of the first three games. And it's like,

858
00:42:28,800 --> 00:42:31,480
Speaker 1: why would you have him doing that? When Hopkins is out,

859
00:42:31,840 --> 00:42:35,320
Speaker 1: Christian Kirk left you in free agency, Rondil Moore is

860
00:42:35,360 --> 00:42:38,279
Speaker 1: dinged up, zach Ertz started dinged up. A J. Green

861
00:42:38,400 --> 00:42:39,960
Speaker 1: is out this week? Like what what on earth are

862
00:42:39,960 --> 00:42:43,160
Speaker 1: you doing? Like it makes no sense? Like I understand it.

863
00:42:43,400 --> 00:42:45,799
Speaker 1: The Buffalo Bills want to save Josh Allen for late

864
00:42:45,840 --> 00:42:47,759
Speaker 1: in the season. They don't want him running a lot

865
00:42:47,760 --> 00:42:49,319
Speaker 1: early in the season. Well, you know what, he hasn't

866
00:42:49,320 --> 00:42:51,040
Speaker 1: had a choice the last couple of weeks. He's been

867
00:42:51,080 --> 00:42:53,120
Speaker 1: running a lot, took a lot of hits in the

868
00:42:53,160 --> 00:42:55,160
Speaker 1: Miami game. But they want to save him for the

869
00:42:55,200 --> 00:42:57,279
Speaker 1: second half of the season in the playoffs. I get that.

870
00:42:57,960 --> 00:43:00,359
Speaker 1: You can't do that if you're the Arizona Cardinals and

871
00:43:00,400 --> 00:43:02,319
Speaker 1: you're one and two and you look horrible and your

872
00:43:02,360 --> 00:43:05,960
Speaker 1: best receivers out for three more games. All that being said,

873
00:43:06,880 --> 00:43:11,120
Speaker 1: I'm gonna give it a shot. The Arizona Cardinals go

874
00:43:11,320 --> 00:43:13,680
Speaker 1: on the road and win. Out right, I will take him,

875
00:43:13,719 --> 00:43:15,600
Speaker 1: probably in the contest one and a half end on

876
00:43:15,640 --> 00:43:19,560
Speaker 1: the money line. Cliff Kingsbury, for whatever reason, gets it

877
00:43:19,600 --> 00:43:22,960
Speaker 1: done on the road fourteen four and one against the spread.

878
00:43:23,000 --> 00:43:25,840
Speaker 1: When he leaves Arizona. I don't have any clue what

879
00:43:25,920 --> 00:43:29,120
Speaker 1: that's about. But for whatever reason, maybe the team's locked in,

880
00:43:29,400 --> 00:43:32,560
Speaker 1: they are away from friends and family. Maybe Kyler Murray

881
00:43:32,560 --> 00:43:34,520
Speaker 1: Camp bring his video games on the road. Ha ha ha.

882
00:43:35,719 --> 00:43:39,680
Speaker 1: I'll take Arizona. The other reason is defensively, the Cardinals, Oh,

883
00:43:39,719 --> 00:43:42,680
Speaker 1: they are so good at blitzing, number three in the

884
00:43:42,760 --> 00:43:46,360
Speaker 1: league at pressure. And I saw Baker Mayfield ranks thirty

885
00:43:46,440 --> 00:43:50,800
Speaker 1: third out of thirty fourth quarterbacks against pressure. Basically, you

886
00:43:50,800 --> 00:43:54,320
Speaker 1: your scare breaker in the pocket, he scrambles and makes mistakes.

887
00:43:54,719 --> 00:43:57,960
Speaker 1: And Arizona without a pass wash. Remember they lost Chandler J. J. Watt.

888
00:43:57,960 --> 00:43:59,279
Speaker 1: It sounds like he's gonna give it a go, or

889
00:43:59,280 --> 00:44:03,440
Speaker 1: at least try to you. I think Arizona is going

890
00:44:03,480 --> 00:44:07,760
Speaker 1: to be a winning play for you and I next up, Listen,

891
00:44:07,800 --> 00:44:10,360
Speaker 1: I hate this bet more than any of them. But

892
00:44:10,400 --> 00:44:12,120
Speaker 1: I see the Colts at minus three and a half

893
00:44:12,200 --> 00:44:15,480
Speaker 1: and I'm like, the Tennessee Titans stink. Okay, we we

894
00:44:15,560 --> 00:44:17,759
Speaker 1: know the Raiders stink. And again, as we talked about

895
00:44:17,760 --> 00:44:20,840
Speaker 1: just now with Rufus, don't read into too much of

896
00:44:20,840 --> 00:44:23,880
Speaker 1: what you saw last week. Prior to the season, I

897
00:44:23,920 --> 00:44:25,680
Speaker 1: thought the Titans were not going to be very good

898
00:44:25,719 --> 00:44:28,200
Speaker 1: at football. You see it in the first half of

899
00:44:28,200 --> 00:44:31,000
Speaker 1: the opener. They look good. I feel like a jackass,

900
00:44:32,080 --> 00:44:34,440
Speaker 1: and then they totally turned into a pumpkin and halftime,

901
00:44:34,640 --> 00:44:37,279
Speaker 1: the Giants come back and beat them. They come out

902
00:44:37,320 --> 00:44:40,480
Speaker 1: in Week two against the Bills on Monday Night football said, oh,

903
00:44:40,520 --> 00:44:43,760
Speaker 1: you know what, that's a big number. Derrick Henry, Ryan Tannehill.

904
00:44:44,280 --> 00:44:48,720
Speaker 1: They get smoked, absolutely destroyed, and you're starting to see,

905
00:44:49,080 --> 00:44:52,920
Speaker 1: oh boy, this team is not that good. And then

906
00:44:53,320 --> 00:44:55,799
Speaker 1: they finally rebound last week and beat the Raiders, who

907
00:44:55,800 --> 00:44:58,240
Speaker 1: were hopeless in the red zone. They just couldn't couldn't

908
00:44:58,239 --> 00:45:01,480
Speaker 1: score in close. Otherwise I think the Raiders probably win

909
00:45:01,520 --> 00:45:04,839
Speaker 1: that game. Tennessee is just not good guys. Now they

910
00:45:04,880 --> 00:45:08,000
Speaker 1: have kind of dominated the series. Um Rabels won four

911
00:45:08,160 --> 00:45:10,520
Speaker 1: or five from Frank Reich. A lot of that has

912
00:45:10,520 --> 00:45:13,279
Speaker 1: been on the back of Derrick Henry. And the good

913
00:45:13,320 --> 00:45:15,640
Speaker 1: news is the Colts get their best linebacker, Darius Leonard,

914
00:45:15,680 --> 00:45:18,040
Speaker 1: who changed his name for some reason to Shack Leonard

915
00:45:18,440 --> 00:45:20,600
Speaker 1: this season, or maybe he's using his middle name. But

916
00:45:20,719 --> 00:45:23,719
Speaker 1: he's back. He's a he's their best run stopper linebacker,

917
00:45:23,920 --> 00:45:26,600
Speaker 1: really the captain of their defense. That it's weird. The

918
00:45:26,680 --> 00:45:29,759
Speaker 1: total has gone down a point and a half and

919
00:45:29,800 --> 00:45:32,879
Speaker 1: now the Colts are getting money. Here as I look

920
00:45:32,920 --> 00:45:35,680
Speaker 1: at the screen early Friday morning, Colts up to minus four.

921
00:45:35,719 --> 00:45:38,080
Speaker 1: I know it's a divisional game. A divisional game bit

922
00:45:38,160 --> 00:45:40,840
Speaker 1: me last week with the Vikings and Lions that that

923
00:45:40,840 --> 00:45:43,080
Speaker 1: that one hurt. But I think I'm gonna ride with

924
00:45:43,080 --> 00:45:45,239
Speaker 1: the Colts. I'll try to wait for a three and

925
00:45:45,239 --> 00:45:47,440
Speaker 1: a half. Maybe some dumb Tannehill money will come in

926
00:45:47,520 --> 00:45:51,200
Speaker 1: late in the week. I think the culture again, they

927
00:45:51,239 --> 00:45:54,840
Speaker 1: did not deserve that game against the Chiefs, and you

928
00:45:54,840 --> 00:45:57,160
Speaker 1: know they did start to show signs of life when

929
00:45:57,200 --> 00:45:59,279
Speaker 1: they were given like a second and third chance to

930
00:45:59,640 --> 00:46:03,879
Speaker 1: win the game. And will it carry over? One can

931
00:46:03,920 --> 00:46:07,560
Speaker 1: only hope, Jonathan Taylor, you're letting my son down in fantasy.

932
00:46:07,600 --> 00:46:09,440
Speaker 1: Just thought i'd let you know that last week I

933
00:46:09,440 --> 00:46:11,840
Speaker 1: had a biggest bet of the season on the Falcons.

934
00:46:11,840 --> 00:46:13,440
Speaker 1: That hit that felt good. I got a lot of

935
00:46:13,480 --> 00:46:16,279
Speaker 1: messages from you guys. I don't have one of those.

936
00:46:16,680 --> 00:46:19,160
Speaker 1: I think I will tell Rufus on his Saints pick

937
00:46:19,760 --> 00:46:23,000
Speaker 1: in London against the Vikings. And it stinks because I

938
00:46:23,040 --> 00:46:25,600
Speaker 1: really like the Vikings this year. I have some futures

939
00:46:25,600 --> 00:46:28,200
Speaker 1: bets on them, but I think I'm riding with Rufus

940
00:46:28,239 --> 00:46:30,399
Speaker 1: on this one. In the Saints. They're probably gonna make

941
00:46:30,440 --> 00:46:35,319
Speaker 1: my final card other teams. I'm looking at Seattle Seahawks. Yes,

942
00:46:35,360 --> 00:46:39,040
Speaker 1: the Seattle Seahawks. The injury report for Detroit is just

943
00:46:39,120 --> 00:46:42,040
Speaker 1: brutal Armron Ross st Brown, They're great receiver, looks like

944
00:46:42,120 --> 00:46:44,680
Speaker 1: he may not play. DeAndre Swift. I think it's about

945
00:46:44,719 --> 00:46:46,200
Speaker 1: to be ruled out here in a couple of hours.

946
00:46:46,560 --> 00:46:48,919
Speaker 1: And so those are basically your two best offensive players.

947
00:46:48,960 --> 00:46:52,360
Speaker 1: They still have some talent there, but do they have

948
00:46:52,480 --> 00:46:54,880
Speaker 1: enough talent to be favored the Detroit Lions one of

949
00:46:54,920 --> 00:46:57,680
Speaker 1: the worst teams in the league. I just I don't

950
00:46:57,719 --> 00:47:00,520
Speaker 1: see it, guys. So I will be looking hard at

951
00:47:00,520 --> 00:47:02,680
Speaker 1: the Seahawks. I want to make a case for my Jets.

952
00:47:02,680 --> 00:47:05,680
Speaker 1: Probably not gonna happen, and I do want to make

953
00:47:06,200 --> 00:47:08,960
Speaker 1: I mean, I listen, not every weekend you have to

954
00:47:09,040 --> 00:47:11,960
Speaker 1: fire five thousand, two thousand three. You don't have to

955
00:47:12,000 --> 00:47:14,759
Speaker 1: do that every weekend. If you guys, remember last week

956
00:47:14,760 --> 00:47:17,960
Speaker 1: I had the Falcons. Is my best bet of the

957
00:47:18,040 --> 00:47:20,440
Speaker 1: early young season. The first three weeks, I thought that

958
00:47:20,480 --> 00:47:24,279
Speaker 1: was my you know, the best edge and in the

959
00:47:24,320 --> 00:47:27,040
Speaker 1: market and the smartest and biggest play that I had

960
00:47:27,080 --> 00:47:29,439
Speaker 1: done and had hit and it felt great. I would

961
00:47:29,520 --> 00:47:30,800
Speaker 1: love to come back to the well this week, but

962
00:47:30,880 --> 00:47:33,680
Speaker 1: there I don't see anything. But if you asked me, Jason,

963
00:47:33,800 --> 00:47:37,120
Speaker 1: you can only bet one game, well, I just gave

964
00:47:37,120 --> 00:47:39,920
Speaker 1: you about five or six that I will probably be contesting.

965
00:47:40,520 --> 00:47:43,480
Speaker 1: Um when it comes to my picks have to be

966
00:47:43,520 --> 00:47:45,760
Speaker 1: in Saturday at like you know, twelve o'clock or whatever.

967
00:47:46,440 --> 00:47:48,120
Speaker 1: The one that's gonna be toughest for me, the one

968
00:47:48,160 --> 00:47:51,480
Speaker 1: that I want to like the most is the Denver Broncos.

969
00:47:51,520 --> 00:47:53,680
Speaker 1: And again I know I had them last week and

970
00:47:53,680 --> 00:47:55,680
Speaker 1: I felt they got lucky as hell against the Niners

971
00:47:55,680 --> 00:47:58,560
Speaker 1: with one late Russ drive. Did they see anything in

972
00:47:58,600 --> 00:48:01,719
Speaker 1: that late drive that they can unlock going forward? And

973
00:48:01,719 --> 00:48:04,920
Speaker 1: and if you just fast forwarded for the pick, here

974
00:48:05,680 --> 00:48:08,000
Speaker 1: best bets and you didn't listen to Rufus. We talked

975
00:48:08,000 --> 00:48:11,560
Speaker 1: about this game in the market and I can't get

976
00:48:11,600 --> 00:48:14,920
Speaker 1: out of my head just the fuddled look of Nathaniel

977
00:48:14,920 --> 00:48:18,360
Speaker 1: Hackett on the sideline. Just a reminder. Hackett, Russ, the

978
00:48:18,440 --> 00:48:21,160
Speaker 1: o C. They've never been together, they never had an

979
00:48:21,160 --> 00:48:23,560
Speaker 1: opportunity in preseason to work together. They've now got three

980
00:48:23,600 --> 00:48:27,000
Speaker 1: games under their belt. I think going forward there will

981
00:48:27,000 --> 00:48:29,920
Speaker 1: be expectations that this offense will not be anemic and

982
00:48:30,080 --> 00:48:34,040
Speaker 1: embarrassment and if you're looking at can they face a

983
00:48:34,080 --> 00:48:38,680
Speaker 1: defense to really torch they should have been the Texas

984
00:48:38,719 --> 00:48:41,840
Speaker 1: a week too. That they cost me money there, and

985
00:48:42,719 --> 00:48:44,560
Speaker 1: I think in week three they faced a tough four

986
00:48:44,680 --> 00:48:48,120
Speaker 1: Niners defense. And now the drop off from San Francisco,

987
00:48:48,160 --> 00:48:49,719
Speaker 1: which is a top three or four defense in the

988
00:48:49,800 --> 00:48:52,480
Speaker 1: league to the Raiders, who are one of the probably

989
00:48:52,520 --> 00:48:53,840
Speaker 1: I mean, if you look at d v O A

990
00:48:55,040 --> 00:48:56,319
Speaker 1: or even you want to look at some of the

991
00:48:56,320 --> 00:48:58,560
Speaker 1: other advanced stats, the Raiders are not a good team. Yes,

992
00:48:58,560 --> 00:49:00,960
Speaker 1: they've lost three close football game is a big freaking deal.

993
00:49:01,320 --> 00:49:03,080
Speaker 1: You know they want all those last year. That's not

994
00:49:03,080 --> 00:49:05,839
Speaker 1: gonna carry over. So I like the Denver Broncos a lot.

995
00:49:05,840 --> 00:49:08,120
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna make it a big play because two

996
00:49:08,120 --> 00:49:10,160
Speaker 1: and a half I hate that. I would love to get.

997
00:49:10,200 --> 00:49:13,200
Speaker 1: If you're gonna give me the three, I'm taking it right. Three.

998
00:49:13,920 --> 00:49:16,960
Speaker 1: I get the better quarterback, I get the better defense.

999
00:49:18,280 --> 00:49:22,040
Speaker 1: I mean, I basically get the better everything that matters

1000
00:49:22,360 --> 00:49:25,960
Speaker 1: in bank in Broncos Raiders, and you give me the

1001
00:49:26,000 --> 00:49:29,440
Speaker 1: field goal, sure, but if if it's only two and

1002
00:49:29,440 --> 00:49:32,120
Speaker 1: a half, it's a little tougher. So anyways, that's my Uh,

1003
00:49:32,200 --> 00:49:34,640
Speaker 1: those are my NFL breakdowns. I didn't even really have

1004
00:49:34,680 --> 00:49:36,719
Speaker 1: a chance this week to look at college. It's weird.

1005
00:49:37,160 --> 00:49:39,880
Speaker 1: When I have a great week in the contest and gambling,

1006
00:49:41,480 --> 00:49:44,399
Speaker 1: my reaction is essentially, all right, we gotta go back,

1007
00:49:44,440 --> 00:49:45,919
Speaker 1: we gotta do it again, we gotta run it back.

1008
00:49:46,600 --> 00:49:49,320
Speaker 1: And when I don't have a great week, I get frustrated.

1009
00:49:49,320 --> 00:49:52,400
Speaker 1: I'm like, I overthought it, I analyzed my mistakes, and

1010
00:49:52,400 --> 00:49:54,560
Speaker 1: then I take a look longer look at college. But

1011
00:49:54,640 --> 00:49:57,520
Speaker 1: I didn't do any college football gambling yet. I will

1012
00:49:57,520 --> 00:50:02,399
Speaker 1: probably get into that late Friday night early Saturday morning, um,

1013
00:50:02,400 --> 00:50:05,000
Speaker 1: while I'm you know, watching my kid take the soccer

1014
00:50:05,040 --> 00:50:07,680
Speaker 1: field for an eight am match. Anyways, you guys have

1015
00:50:07,719 --> 00:50:09,399
Speaker 1: a great weekend. We'll talk to you next week.