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Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast from the Volume podcast network.

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Speaker 1: We are counting down the days. It is Tuesday, August three,

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Speaker 1: one in nine days, the NFL season will kick off

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Speaker 1: with the Thursday night game. We have two more divisions

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Speaker 1: to cover here on the Favorites podcast. We have been

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Speaker 1: doing it all summer, counting down every single division. Which

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Speaker 1: team has improved, which team is not. There are Super

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Speaker 1: Bowl odds, Conference odds, division odds totals with my bff,

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Speaker 1: my companion, my compote read Sun and Hunter Professional Better.

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Speaker 1: How are you, buddy, Chad? No days off, buddy, We're here.

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Speaker 1: We don't miss any days. We're ready for football. We

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Speaker 1: are so deep into football. I wanted on the record

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Speaker 1: that I won my first college football bet of the

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Speaker 1: year I had after listening to the Big Bets on

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Speaker 1: Campus podcast with Colin and Stucky. They were so they

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Speaker 1: were They both felt so strongly about Illinois Nebraska under

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Speaker 1: UH that I went forward even though I knew I

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Speaker 1: was getting the worst of the number. They liked it

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Speaker 1: under fifty seven. It got that down. They still liked

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Speaker 1: it at fifty four. It was at fifty two and

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Speaker 1: a half. And the podcast comes out on Thursday. I

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Speaker 1: listened to it on Saturday morning, I walked the Dog.

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Speaker 1: It's my like fall podcast ritual. Saturday morning, walked the Dog,

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Speaker 1: listen to Big Bets on campus. I get the fifty

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Speaker 1: two and a half. I'm feeling good about it the

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Speaker 1: whole game. I Uh, open up the Action Network gap

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Speaker 1: because I had to step away. I see that all

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Speaker 1: of a sudden, it's thirty to sixteen with nine minutes left,

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Speaker 1: and my percentage chance of covering has gone from to

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Speaker 1: about two. And uh, I turn on the game. Miraculously,

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Speaker 1: Nebraska's terrible, missing extra points, all the stuff that doesn't

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Speaker 1: work for them, that, all the mistakes they make. It's

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Speaker 1: gonna caust Scott for Ross's job. They have a fourth

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Speaker 1: and god knows what, Adrian Martinez throws the ball. Uh,

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Speaker 1: it's incomplete, Illinois getting the ball back. There's eleven seconds left.

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Speaker 1: It's thirty two two. At this point, I know the

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Speaker 1: game's over mentally, but emotionally, I'm not ready to let

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Speaker 1: it go yet. My fourteen year old is sitting with

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Speaker 1: me on the couch and says, all right, let's change

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Speaker 1: the channel like we were watching NFL Top one. I'm

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Speaker 1: like guy, we're not changing the channel. He goes, the

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Speaker 1: game's over. I'm like, it's not fucking over. It's two

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Speaker 1: really bad teams. Anything go wrong in the last eleven

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Speaker 1: seconds during the kneel down, give me this. I give

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Speaker 1: you so much in my life, give me this eleven seconds.

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Speaker 1: Illinois one covered under. Everything worked out okay, but it

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Speaker 1: was a good way to get through training camp for NFL.

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Speaker 1: Oh that's the best half a half a point cover.

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Speaker 1: I would say I had a horrible beat last week.

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Speaker 1: I had the Eagles moneyline and the Jets had a

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Speaker 1: held Mary. Then their preseason game, they get the hell

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Speaker 1: marry then they run in the two point conversion to

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Speaker 1: get a push. I was so sick in my stomach.

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Speaker 1: But that's why I'm just so glad it's over chat.

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Speaker 1: Now I can complain about the regular season, no excuses,

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Speaker 1: you know what I mean, I can't take this preseason. Well,

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Speaker 1: what's annoying is during the preseason and the regular season,

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Speaker 1: it's not like in the preseason you're playing with fake money. No.

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Speaker 1: The funniest two is people are like, you bet on preseason,

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Speaker 1: and it's like, don't be that guy. Honestly, it's like, yeah,

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Speaker 1: of course I do. I'm a degenerate and this is

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Speaker 1: my job. I bet on preseason. I've been on everything.

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Speaker 1: It's one of those things where it's like, look, you

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Speaker 1: could be that guy. You can be that guy and

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Speaker 1: and one day it'll be good enough to get you

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Speaker 1: a job as the brand ambassador at a major sports book.

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Speaker 1: It's true. And it's also one of those things where

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Speaker 1: it's like, if you haven't been betting the Ravens, you

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Speaker 1: have wasted three years of your life as a gambler,

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Speaker 1: because it is seriously, I mean, Chad, I don't know

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Speaker 1: if you have numbers are in front of you. It's like,

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Speaker 1: I think they're eight two and one on covering in

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Speaker 1: the last like four years. So just a pure of

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Speaker 1: money maker. Every every bet I make, I either throw

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Speaker 1: their money line in there or whatever. We're not worthy.

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Speaker 1: I should say that right now. We are not worthy.

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Speaker 1: Thank God for the Baltimore Ravens and all the money

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Speaker 1: they've given them. Alright today we are doing the NFC West,

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Speaker 1: which to me is far and away the best division

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Speaker 1: in the NFL. The Niners, the Rams, the Seahawks at Vanduel.

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Speaker 1: Their season win totals are all over ten Arizona is

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Speaker 1: over eight and a half. Um, the Niners and the

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Speaker 1: Rams are both amongst the top five ten teams in

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl odds. Seattle just outside that. Um, we're gonna

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Speaker 1: get to all that. We're gonna break it down super

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Speaker 1: Bowl Conference division totals. Before we do that, we've had

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Speaker 1: so much news already on a Tuesday morning. Number one,

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Speaker 1: Suddenly Trey Lance is super m V p odds are shrinking.

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Speaker 1: Everyone is piling in. You've been all over this for

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Speaker 1: like three months. What did you get it at? Why

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Speaker 1: is this happening? And that's that's always the tough part.

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Speaker 1: Two about these sports books that limited you. So I

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Speaker 1: got him a three one, but they only let me

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Speaker 1: get down two hundred dollars. So it's like I tried

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Speaker 1: bet in a grand but it was in March. The

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Speaker 1: sports books were like, okay, we're not taking this kind

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Speaker 1: of liability. So I got him a three one, I

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Speaker 1: got him a two one. I think we gave him

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Speaker 1: out here at one fifth year. Um. Again, I try

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Speaker 1: to explain to people, I don't think Trey Lance is

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Speaker 1: really gonna win m VP, but it's a value based

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Speaker 1: bet where it's like this kid in the Shanahan's offense.

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Speaker 1: So if he can put together a year like r

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Speaker 1: G three to his rookie year, you're gonna get a

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Speaker 1: good hedge opportunity to end of the season. And obviously

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Speaker 1: didn't go the way I thought I was gonna go.

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Speaker 1: I thought by now they were to trade Jimmy. Um,

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Speaker 1: it is funny the way they talk about it, where

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Speaker 1: they're saying they're gonna do a qute two QB system

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Speaker 1: right now, But I just feel like that's just not

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Speaker 1: the hurt Jimmy's feelings. Maybe Jimmy will start this year,

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Speaker 1: but man, I just don't know what the point is

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Speaker 1: where it's like the thing of the capital they traded

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Speaker 1: to get up to get that third pick, and we

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Speaker 1: know we have in Jimmy. We have a guy who

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Speaker 1: is good, but he can't stay on the field and

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Speaker 1: he misses the deep throws. And we saw in preseason

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Speaker 1: Jimmy had a really bad miss on a deep throw.

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Speaker 1: I think the next series, Trey Lance came in and

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Speaker 1: he hit a guy perfectly on a deep throw. And

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Speaker 1: that's what I feel like he's looking for. He's looking

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Speaker 1: for a guy that can control this offense and take

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Speaker 1: big place. So I still like the value on Trey Lance,

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Speaker 1: but I would tell people you've kind of missed the

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Speaker 1: best of the number. Like you just said, it's I'm

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Speaker 1: not sure if it's the biggest liability, but it probably is.

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Speaker 1: Now it's all these different sports books because the fantasy

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Speaker 1: community has become obsessed with Trey Lance. So you have

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Speaker 1: gamblers I love this guy. I know you have the

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Speaker 1: fantasy people. I love this guy. So everyone's just been

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Speaker 1: betting this number down. So for me, I would stay

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Speaker 1: away from this number at this point because you've kind

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Speaker 1: of missed the value. All right. Meanwhile, Mac Jones is

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Speaker 1: now going to be the quarterback in New England. Cam Jones,

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Speaker 1: Cam Newton is cut. Here's what I love. Here's what

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Speaker 1: I love. I'm not gonna name names, but a couple

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Speaker 1: of days ago, uh I got an alert from a

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Speaker 1: relatively large sports media company with a story from their

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Speaker 1: New England based writer saying retired offensive line coach Skarnaki

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Speaker 1: loves what he's seeing out of Cam Newton and Mac Jones.

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Speaker 1: And I saw that and thought, what the funk is this? Like?

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Speaker 1: What what could he possibly be seeing out of Cam

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Speaker 1: Newton who's missing practice and looking like crapping games that

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Speaker 1: would make him think he's in love with Cam Newton,

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Speaker 1: and it turns out nobody's in love with Cam Newton.

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Speaker 1: And so now what I loved was I just saw

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Speaker 1: a tweet on my you know, Chicago Bears centric twitter

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Speaker 1: feed that basically said Bill Belichick has a training camp battle,

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Speaker 1: decides to cut the guy and change up his plans

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Speaker 1: when the guy wasn't playing very well and he sees

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Speaker 1: a guy with potential Matt Niggi adamantly refuses to change

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Speaker 1: his mind, even when Justin Fields is out playing Andy Dalton.

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Speaker 1: And by the way, we'll get to Justin Fields next.

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Speaker 1: First let's talk about Mac Jones in this move. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: big deal for a lot of different reasons. If you

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Speaker 1: were a believer in Damian Harris and you bet him

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Speaker 1: at six or six to one to lead NFL and touchdowns,

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Speaker 1: you have an incredible value. Because they've gotten rid of

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Speaker 1: Sonny Michelle, they've gotten rid of Cam. It seems like

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Speaker 1: Damon Harris is gonna be that running back And that's

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Speaker 1: crazy good value if you've got that number before all

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Speaker 1: these different moves happened. I unfortunately didn't. I think I

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Speaker 1: got him at forty to one to get the touchdowns

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Speaker 1: after they traded Sony. But it's definitely one of those

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Speaker 1: where as someone that has bet against the Patriots and

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Speaker 1: I have them finishing third in this division, I'm a static.

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Speaker 1: I think that everyone feels good. Of course, it's you know,

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Speaker 1: you're excited. It's a rookie quarterback. Mac Jones look good

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Speaker 1: in the preseason. The fan base is really excited. I'm

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Speaker 1: not here to be that guy to be like, Okay,

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Speaker 1: this g is gonna fucking suck. He's gonna suck. Chad.

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Speaker 1: I mean, we've seen it time and time again. He's

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Speaker 1: a fifth rookie drafted in this class. Again, nothing against him.

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Speaker 1: We saw Lamar he was a fifth rookie draft in

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Speaker 1: his class. He had a lot of bumps and bruises

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Speaker 1: his first year. He at ups and downs. He was

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Speaker 1: really turnover prone, wouldn't make smart decisions, little things like that.

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Speaker 1: And when I look at Mac, I think that Bill

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Speaker 1: looked at it and said, okay, he's gonna make the

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Speaker 1: same amount of mistakes as Camwell, again, I didn't even

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Speaker 1: mention it. It's crazy to me. They paid Cam three

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Speaker 1: point five million not to play for them. The literally

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Speaker 1: it's guaranteed money. They cut him with guaranteed money, which

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Speaker 1: I think that speaks volumes to what you're talking about

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Speaker 1: with I don't know if he's doing the vaccine stuff,

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Speaker 1: but I think Belichick was just like, this guy is

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Speaker 1: not committed. I don't even want to deal with this

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Speaker 1: ship this year. Like this isn't a top five quarterback.

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Speaker 1: This guy is the bottom of the barrel. So for me,

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Speaker 1: fading the Patriots, I get why they're excited, but these fans,

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Speaker 1: I don't think they've even had a rookie quarterback start

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Speaker 1: in their lifetime. Like I think Brady started one games

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Speaker 1: rookiear because they had blod So and it's I get it,

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Speaker 1: you're feeling good. It's exciting right now. But for me,

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Speaker 1: this is just a great opportunity that this guy is

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Speaker 1: gonna take a lot of lumps this year and he's

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Speaker 1: in a very tough division that I will be faded

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Speaker 1: Mac Jones. Even week one, I got the Miami plus three,

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Speaker 1: it's down to plus two and a half now it's

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Speaker 1: it's definitely one of these lines. It's gonna be moving.

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Speaker 1: Because it's a rookies first start. You kind of want

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Speaker 1: to go against these guys in their first start, just

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Speaker 1: because again it's so many jitters. Everyone's human here, we

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Speaker 1: all get that. I think their win total was nine

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Speaker 1: nine and a half. I'm still on that under with

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Speaker 1: Max starting. How did you know that Damien Harris to

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Speaker 1: lead the league in touchdowns? Was it sixties six to one?

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Speaker 1: You had that? Like I didn't tell you before the show. Hey,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna want to talk about this, So why did

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Speaker 1: you have that? Recall, I'm a full on degeneratire. I

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Speaker 1: cannot explain to you how much I gamble, but yeah,

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Speaker 1: I hit it a bunch of times. It's one of

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Speaker 1: those numbers where, again we talk all the time, we're

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Speaker 1: just playing. This is a value based job. That's all

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Speaker 1: we're doing is playing value based. Do I think Damian

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Speaker 1: Harris is actually gonna lead the league in touchdowns? No,

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Speaker 1: but I see there's a void now, and there's a

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Speaker 1: huge opening that Cam Newton had I think eight red

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Speaker 1: zone touchdowns rushing last year. If you shift out the

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Speaker 1: Damien Harris and he had ten last year, that's eighteen

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Speaker 1: rushing touchdowns. Again, I will lead the league. So it's

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Speaker 1: just one of those simple things where I'm just you know,

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Speaker 1: playing the long shot odds. Is it still six six

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Speaker 1: to one on Fandal, No, No, you had it. You

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Speaker 1: said it was at forty to one. Now yeah, I

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Speaker 1: dropped down. Yeah. So, but my point is you knew

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Speaker 1: that at one point it was at sixty to one,

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Speaker 1: which means you must have looked at it at one

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Speaker 1: point and at the time you probably thought, Okay, Cam's

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Speaker 1: gonna be there, and maybe you know you you got

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Speaker 1: it as soon as it dropped. But it was actually

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Speaker 1: because the Dobbins. Dobbins got hurt. Um and I had

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Speaker 1: a little, a little decent amount of money invested in Dobbins.

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Speaker 1: I had high hopes for him. Um. I also saw

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Speaker 1: some ridiculous I don't know if it was a Tweeter

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Speaker 1: podcast I might have heard, but it was someone saying

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Speaker 1: they don't think the Ravens are a Super Bowl contender

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Speaker 1: anymore because they lost Dobbins. What are we doing here, Chad?

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Speaker 1: It's one. I mean, I'm trying to I was trying

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Speaker 1: to rack my brain of what top five running back

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Speaker 1: has won a Super Bowl in the last twenty years.

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Speaker 1: Marshawn Lynch one with the Seahawks. They won that game

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Speaker 1: like forty three to seven, it was their defense. It

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Speaker 1: wasn't because of Marshawn And so again I think people

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Speaker 1: overrate the value of the position and running back. I

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Speaker 1: love Davis. I thought it unreal talent that that should

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Speaker 1: have persuade you to stay away from the Ravens. That's

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Speaker 1: just another guy's gonna step in, like Gus Edwards and

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Speaker 1: they're gonna be all right. So it's one of those

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Speaker 1: don't overrate the running back people. Well, it's amazing to

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Speaker 1: me that you were thinking about Damian Harrison. It also

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Speaker 1: goes to to show sort of how you as a

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Speaker 1: professional better separate and distinguish yourself from everybody else because

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Speaker 1: and this is how you win. This is how you

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Speaker 1: get the edge. This is why it's so hard for

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Speaker 1: people to get the edge to win if it's not

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Speaker 1: what they do every day. Like this is why you

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Speaker 1: need help, because you get up in the morning and

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Speaker 1: you're thinking, four or five levels deep, where is the

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Speaker 1: value going to be? How is this team going to

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Speaker 1: use this player? What is going to be the impact

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Speaker 1: of this player being on this team? Now? All those things,

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Speaker 1: and so you're looking at every single market that's available

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Speaker 1: and thinking where is the value I am not getting

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Speaker 1: up every day and doing that. I'm getting up every

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Speaker 1: day and thinking our team is growing. How am I

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Speaker 1: going to manage this team and get us to our

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Speaker 1: goals for the year. Yeah, I can't win against someone

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Speaker 1: like you. And if you like doing this stuff, the

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Speaker 1: Action app, it gives you the best lines. You don't

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Speaker 1: need to go through all these different sports books. You

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Speaker 1: literally can open up the app. I'll tell you what

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Speaker 1: book has the best line for that number. So again,

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Speaker 1: I know I'm I'm promoting our app all the time,

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Speaker 1: but I love it. That's saving me half an hour

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Speaker 1: of work hopping on there. I don't need to go

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Speaker 1: through all nineteen sports books in New Jersey. I can

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Speaker 1: hop onto the Action app. I can find the best

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Speaker 1: number for the best value. So again, shot, love it, dude.

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Speaker 1: I love the way you pimp. You are fucking pro. Uh.

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Speaker 1: The last one we got to talk about. I do

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Speaker 1: want to say Justin Fields washing the other night against

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Speaker 1: the Titans, first offensive player to score a touchdown against

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Speaker 1: the Titans in the preseason. Clearly that means everything. Um,

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Speaker 1: but any tight end man, well, listen, I thought like

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Speaker 1: he made some throws, really good throws and tough spots

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Speaker 1: and you do that touchdown pass on the sideline on

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Speaker 1: the right side of the end zone into a window.

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Speaker 1: That's not a pass you make unless you are comfortable

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Speaker 1: putting yourself out there at the NFL level as a quarterback.

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Speaker 1: That was not a Okay, this guy is wide open.

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Speaker 1: And he did this a couple of times in the game.

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Speaker 1: Either he threw a guy open or he threw it

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Speaker 1: to his spot and was like, I know, my arm

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Speaker 1: is strong enough to get it there. It's either going

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Speaker 1: to be a catch, or it's gonna be like a

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Speaker 1: past defense, or it's gonna be out of bounce like

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Speaker 1: I got. I got this and that was pretty outstanding. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: everything he showed us is why I had him right

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Speaker 1: at the number two quarterback coming out of the draft.

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Speaker 1: He is incredible on his move, he's smart, and when

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Speaker 1: he gets outside the pocket, like we saw that, he

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Speaker 1: put that ball where only his receiver could catch and

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Speaker 1: if he doesn't catch, it's just gonna go out of

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Speaker 1: bounce and that like that for a rookie quarterback. Oh man,

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Speaker 1: I mean again, the Bears have to be feeling so good.

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Speaker 1: I get why you're upset with the whole naggy thing. Um,

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Speaker 1: Like we had we I heard. I think Darren's Feller

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Speaker 1: maybe talked about our show, maybe tweeted about it. But

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Speaker 1: if you lose the players in the locker room because

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Speaker 1: you're trying to say, okay, Any Dalton's the starter, and

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Speaker 1: everyone in the locker room believes he's not that that

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Speaker 1: is a little terrifying as a guy that's betting on

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Speaker 1: the Bears this upcoming season, because he could lose this

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Speaker 1: locker room pretty quick if he lets Any don't keep

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Speaker 1: going out there. But again, I'm cool with him, and

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Speaker 1: he don't start the first game. It's a Sunday night

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Speaker 1: primetime game against arguably one of the best defenses of football.

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Speaker 1: I don't get why he's doing it. Maybe he has

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Speaker 1: just an agreement with Andy Dalton, that's why he signed.

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Speaker 1: There was like, hey, no matter what, you're playing the

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Speaker 1: first game, we all have eyes. We all know Naggies

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Speaker 1: watched the games too. Andy Dalton has not done a

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Speaker 1: single thing to earn that starting job. If anything, well,

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Speaker 1: you just said, like Bill Belchick cutting Cam Newton. I

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Speaker 1: don't get why Naggi hasn't cut him. It's very interesting

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Speaker 1: everything going on with that. So for me, it's a

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Speaker 1: little worriam. It's worrying me. But also we talked about

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Speaker 1: as a gambler chat, this is a great time to

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Speaker 1: get value on Justin Fields. If you wanted him to

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Speaker 1: bet Rookie of the Year, you wait after week one.

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Speaker 1: His odds will go up because all the other guys played,

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Speaker 1: he didn't play, and you're gonn gonna be able to

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Speaker 1: get good value on Justin Field. So if you like

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Speaker 1: him to win Rookie of the Year, just wait after

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Speaker 1: a week one. As I've said of four, Justin Fields

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Speaker 1: will be the most consequential draft pick for the Chicago

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Speaker 1: Bears in my fifty years of life, including six Hall

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Speaker 1: of Famers, because it means we will have a bubble

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Speaker 1: head that is not the quarterback who was great for

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Speaker 1: the Bears in the nineteen forties named Sid Lackman. Literally,

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Speaker 1: the guys wearing number A quarterbacks number two. He's not

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Speaker 1: wearing a helmet, not because they want to have the

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Speaker 1: bubble head show his face, because they just didn't wear helmets.

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Speaker 1: Then that's why that's the bubble head that I'm showing

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Speaker 1: the world right now. If you're listening to this only

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Speaker 1: through your ears, all right, NFC West, right, off the top.

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Speaker 1: You and I are diametrically opposed at the top of

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Speaker 1: this division. I have said from the beginning, this is

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Speaker 1: the definitive lean on coaches. Do you believe in Kyle Shanahan?

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Speaker 1: Do you believe in Sewan Evey. I think what Shanahan

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Speaker 1: did last year with the roster he had, having them

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Speaker 1: be as competitive as they were every week, having to

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Speaker 1: remake the team, the strategy, that dynamic, I think he

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Speaker 1: fucking loved it. I think he, like most coaches would crumble,

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Speaker 1: Are you kidding me? He was like, I get to

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Speaker 1: reinvent this every week, and I'm going to prove to

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Speaker 1: everybody how good I am. Getting a full team back,

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Speaker 1: being healthy, having whatever kind of quarterback monster he's going

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Speaker 1: to create, doesn't matter. I'm on this team. Fourteen to

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Speaker 1: one to win the Super Bowl, six to one to

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Speaker 1: win the conference, plus one eighty to win the division

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Speaker 1: over ten and a half. Uh, You're not against the Niners,

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Speaker 1: but the wise guy community has been whispering in your

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Speaker 1: ear about the Los Angeles Rams. Yeah, and it's not

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Speaker 1: even that I'm against it, it's more that they're at

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Speaker 1: this point, they're a little overvalued. The public has bet

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Speaker 1: them up at this point, they bet their shuper ball

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Speaker 1: odds down. I'm again, I told you the reason I

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Speaker 1: like Detroit Week one is I hate that they have

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Speaker 1: two quarterbacks, Like I hate a quarterback controversy right now,

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Speaker 1: because that just can't be good. We've never seen it work.

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Speaker 1: We've never seen two quarterbacks system work in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: And if I'm just looking at this, and I'm trying

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Speaker 1: to be non biased, this team had six wins I believe,

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Speaker 1: last year, and now they've been they're saying they're gonna

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Speaker 1: have over ten and a half. And I get it.

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Speaker 1: They lost Jimmy g they had a bunch of injuries

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Speaker 1: last year. They're assuming they're gonna be more healthy this year.

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Speaker 1: But at the same time, they had a lot of

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Speaker 1: games they won last year. They just kind of, you know,

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Speaker 1: they were playing the Cowboys, they played a lot of

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Speaker 1: They played the nfc s last year. They I mean,

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Speaker 1: you probably remember that game. The Eagles were an eight

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Speaker 1: point underdog can Nick Mullins and they beat him on

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Speaker 1: Monday Night, I believe. So. I think the public naturally

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Speaker 1: likes to hype up the forty nine because they just

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Speaker 1: see them as one of these teams and that to

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Speaker 1: my job to take a step back and go, okay,

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Speaker 1: I have more confidence in Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson

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Speaker 1: running this thing back. I think they fell apart last year,

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Speaker 1: and I have more confidence than you know. Again, I

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Speaker 1: know they won the division last year, but it was

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Speaker 1: kind of flukey. The Rams had a bunch of injuries.

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Speaker 1: We already talked about four Niniers have a bunch of injuries,

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Speaker 1: and Arizona just sucks with Kingberry. So for me, when

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Speaker 1: I look at this with the forty niners, you have

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Speaker 1: to ask yourself, is that really worth it fourteen to

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Speaker 1: one to be better than the win the Super Bowl?

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Speaker 1: When you just talked about they're in the hardest division

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Speaker 1: of football, It's it's rare we see the team the

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Speaker 1: hardest division of football win the Super Bowl because usually

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Speaker 1: they've just been the ship out of each other the

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Speaker 1: entire season. They kind of get burned out by the playoffs.

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Speaker 1: So when I'm looking at this division and I'm just

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Speaker 1: going pure value based, that's why I like the Rams.

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Speaker 1: I think that most people are talking about the professionals,

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Speaker 1: it's you're getting a good number. You're getting a team

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Speaker 1: that you know, again, we can talk about all we want.

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Speaker 1: We have no idea what Stafford. We do have a

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Speaker 1: knock on him just because he played in Detroit for

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Speaker 1: so long and all we've seen him do is lose again.

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Speaker 1: We don't know if that's coaching, if that's on Matt Stafford.

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Speaker 1: But for me, at that price and that value, I'm

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Speaker 1: willing to gamble on it. I like the Rams, I

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Speaker 1: like the Seahawks, but I bet both of them. I'm

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Speaker 1: still getting a good plus money on my number betting

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Speaker 1: than the win that division. So I'm just staying away

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Speaker 1: from the forty nine. They seem like they're a year away.

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Speaker 1: They need to figure out this QB situation and then

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Speaker 1: next year they'll be their year. One thing I want

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Speaker 1: to point out this was interesting to me. You mentioned

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Speaker 1: Jimmy G. The Niners are two years removed from the

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Speaker 1: super Bowl. That's how quickly things change in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: Jimmy G is two years removed from the super Bowl.

426
00:20:10,040 --> 00:20:13,560
Speaker 1: He goes through last year, plays great, doesn't get injured.

427
00:20:14,080 --> 00:20:16,399
Speaker 1: We're not even having this conversation about Tree Lance, right,

428
00:20:16,440 --> 00:20:21,800
Speaker 1: Isn't that amazing? And nine Kyle Shanahan with Jimmy G's

429
00:20:21,920 --> 00:20:25,040
Speaker 1: it's unbelievable sort of how fickle this league is and

430
00:20:25,080 --> 00:20:28,000
Speaker 1: how challenging it is to stay so healthy for so

431
00:20:28,040 --> 00:20:30,960
Speaker 1: long and to be on top. So I mentioned that

432
00:20:31,320 --> 00:20:34,239
Speaker 1: my kid and I were watching that NFL Top one

433
00:20:34,320 --> 00:20:37,879
Speaker 1: hundred show, right and it was on on NFL Network,

434
00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:43,359
Speaker 1: and they pointed out that, uh, this year, Travis Kelsey

435
00:20:43,440 --> 00:20:46,120
Speaker 1: was five and Patrick Mahomes was one, and it's one

436
00:20:46,119 --> 00:20:48,800
Speaker 1: of the fourth or fifth times in the ten years

437
00:20:48,880 --> 00:20:53,200
Speaker 1: they've been doing the show or whatever, um that uh

438
00:20:53,359 --> 00:20:56,240
Speaker 1: teammates were in the top five, And two of the

439
00:20:56,240 --> 00:21:01,080
Speaker 1: other times were Antonio Brown and Levyan Bell, Todd Gurley

440
00:21:01,080 --> 00:21:07,359
Speaker 1: and Aaron Donald MHM. Within two years of those couples

441
00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:12,640
Speaker 1: being in the top five of Top one, they were

442
00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:16,440
Speaker 1: all separated. Belle and Brown weren't even on the Steelers anymore.

443
00:21:16,480 --> 00:21:19,160
Speaker 1: Within two years of being in the top five, Todd

444
00:21:19,200 --> 00:21:23,639
Speaker 1: Gurley and Aaron Donald. Gurley was like, but honestly, before

445
00:21:23,640 --> 00:21:25,920
Speaker 1: the season in which he was a top five player ended,

446
00:21:26,160 --> 00:21:28,159
Speaker 1: he was no longer a top five player because by

447
00:21:28,160 --> 00:21:31,879
Speaker 1: the playoffs of that year, he was out. He couldn't

448
00:21:31,880 --> 00:21:34,439
Speaker 1: he couldn't move anymore. I mean, that's what's so amazing

449
00:21:34,440 --> 00:21:38,639
Speaker 1: about this league. Like not just year to year, month

450
00:21:38,720 --> 00:21:41,280
Speaker 1: to month, your fortune can change. And I'm that's what

451
00:21:41,320 --> 00:21:43,080
Speaker 1: I'm trying to beat into people. It's like, you're feeling

452
00:21:43,119 --> 00:21:46,360
Speaker 1: really good about your quarterback right now. Okay, the Eagles

453
00:21:46,359 --> 00:21:48,359
Speaker 1: went to Super Bowl with Carson Wentz. Carson Wentz is

454
00:21:48,359 --> 00:21:50,320
Speaker 1: on a different team. Jared Golf went the Super Bowl

455
00:21:50,320 --> 00:21:52,679
Speaker 1: with the Rams. Jared Golf's on a different team. Jimmy

456
00:21:52,680 --> 00:21:54,479
Speaker 1: g went to Super Bowl. Like you said two years ago,

457
00:21:54,560 --> 00:21:56,320
Speaker 1: he's about to be a backup. It's one of these

458
00:21:56,359 --> 00:21:59,040
Speaker 1: things where even when you think you have a quarterback,

459
00:21:59,080 --> 00:22:01,840
Speaker 1: you don't. It's like, as a fan of the sport,

460
00:22:01,880 --> 00:22:04,520
Speaker 1: it's brutal because it's just like I hate being that

461
00:22:04,600 --> 00:22:07,080
Speaker 1: Debbie downer, but that's my job. It's just one of

462
00:22:07,080 --> 00:22:08,560
Speaker 1: these things where I just know a lot of these

463
00:22:08,560 --> 00:22:11,600
Speaker 1: guys are gonna fail, and even when they succeed, like

464
00:22:11,880 --> 00:22:14,000
Speaker 1: I'll never forget. I was really down on Mark Sanchez.

465
00:22:14,080 --> 00:22:15,560
Speaker 1: I just did not think he was gonna be a

466
00:22:15,600 --> 00:22:18,199
Speaker 1: good NFL pro. I look at Jackass for about three

467
00:22:18,280 --> 00:22:20,080
Speaker 1: years chat this guy literally kept going to the a

468
00:22:20,160 --> 00:22:22,680
Speaker 1: f C title game. I was like, okay, I misread

469
00:22:22,720 --> 00:22:24,600
Speaker 1: that one. And then two years he was out of

470
00:22:24,600 --> 00:22:26,280
Speaker 1: the elite. So it's one of these things where it's

471
00:22:26,320 --> 00:22:28,879
Speaker 1: like you just gotta trust your guns and trust for

472
00:22:28,880 --> 00:22:32,760
Speaker 1: you're watching on film, because again I love Patrick Mahomes.

473
00:22:33,119 --> 00:22:34,879
Speaker 1: With Patrick Homes to be the same quarterback if you

474
00:22:34,880 --> 00:22:38,000
Speaker 1: didn't have Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelsey, Andy Reid, no, okay,

475
00:22:38,040 --> 00:22:40,280
Speaker 1: you fell into literally the perfect situation with a perfect

476
00:22:40,359 --> 00:22:42,600
Speaker 1: coach with the perfect player. So it's just one of

477
00:22:42,640 --> 00:22:44,840
Speaker 1: those where a lot more goes into this and then

478
00:22:45,000 --> 00:22:46,840
Speaker 1: just straight having talent. So that's what I'm trying to

479
00:22:46,920 --> 00:22:49,360
Speaker 1: keep people informed on where it's like I got nothing

480
00:22:49,359 --> 00:22:51,080
Speaker 1: against Mac Jones. I think Mac Jones could be a

481
00:22:51,080 --> 00:22:53,679
Speaker 1: great quarterback, but this year, I know Mac Jones is

482
00:22:53,680 --> 00:22:55,520
Speaker 1: gonna suck. And that's just the way it is NFL.

483
00:22:55,640 --> 00:22:57,520
Speaker 1: It's that hard to be good in this league. So

484
00:22:57,920 --> 00:22:59,400
Speaker 1: for me, that's what I'm trying to get into people

485
00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:01,520
Speaker 1: is like you can be happy and excited, you need

486
00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:03,320
Speaker 1: to kind of take your bias out of what you're

487
00:23:03,320 --> 00:23:06,399
Speaker 1: doing here, because again, it's the hardest league to win in.

488
00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:09,680
Speaker 1: We've just seen the time and time again, the turnover rate, everything.

489
00:23:10,280 --> 00:23:12,359
Speaker 1: Every team is always looking for that next edge. So

490
00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:15,720
Speaker 1: for me, I know we're gonna talk at NAGY about

491
00:23:15,720 --> 00:23:18,600
Speaker 1: this division all year. I cannot tell people to take

492
00:23:18,640 --> 00:23:20,760
Speaker 1: the Seahawks at that value. I think they're plus two

493
00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:23,560
Speaker 1: seventy five. They want this division. Chat. They had no

494
00:23:23,640 --> 00:23:25,760
Speaker 1: fans last year, and I think their only loss might

495
00:23:25,760 --> 00:23:27,240
Speaker 1: have been to the Giants or something weird like that

496
00:23:27,320 --> 00:23:29,640
Speaker 1: at home, Like they literally were incredible at home even

497
00:23:29,640 --> 00:23:31,879
Speaker 1: with no fans. It can only be better this year.

498
00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:33,919
Speaker 1: They're gonna have fans. They're They're just one of these

499
00:23:33,920 --> 00:23:35,760
Speaker 1: teams where I think the seats are being slept on

500
00:23:35,800 --> 00:23:38,080
Speaker 1: because they don't have any new toys, don't have the

501
00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:40,000
Speaker 1: new quarterback, they don't have the forty nine. Like the

502
00:23:40,000 --> 00:23:41,760
Speaker 1: Forts are just getting hyped up so hard right now.

503
00:23:42,119 --> 00:23:43,680
Speaker 1: It kind of feels like the Seahawks are that team

504
00:23:43,680 --> 00:23:46,080
Speaker 1: that's just being left for done. I do want to

505
00:23:46,080 --> 00:23:49,119
Speaker 1: get to the Seahawks because, um but but one of

506
00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:51,479
Speaker 1: the things I want to remind people I sat off

507
00:23:51,520 --> 00:23:54,440
Speaker 1: the top. We're gonna talk about the rookie quarterbacks. We

508
00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:56,600
Speaker 1: talked about Lance, we talked about Mac Jones and Cam

509
00:23:56,640 --> 00:23:59,520
Speaker 1: Newton getting cut in justin fields. I forgot to get

510
00:23:59,560 --> 00:24:03,800
Speaker 1: to the Saints having to leave New Orleans because of

511
00:24:03,880 --> 00:24:07,920
Speaker 1: Hurricane Ida for the first month of the year. They

512
00:24:07,960 --> 00:24:12,160
Speaker 1: had the Packers on September twelve at the Superdome. Give

513
00:24:12,160 --> 00:24:14,560
Speaker 1: me your take on what happens with that game. I mean,

514
00:24:14,560 --> 00:24:16,720
Speaker 1: we know what happens. They're gonna play somewhere else, but

515
00:24:17,600 --> 00:24:19,640
Speaker 1: what happens with the Saints? How do you evaluate this?

516
00:24:20,440 --> 00:24:22,280
Speaker 1: As a fan and as a better I could not

517
00:24:22,440 --> 00:24:24,000
Speaker 1: wait the bet on the Saints for this game. I

518
00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:25,840
Speaker 1: think they had gotten up to plus four at this

519
00:24:25,880 --> 00:24:29,600
Speaker 1: point before they had moved locations. This was the classic.

520
00:24:30,040 --> 00:24:32,600
Speaker 1: You know, everyone's gonna be really down on the Saints

521
00:24:32,840 --> 00:24:34,560
Speaker 1: and it's gonna be them week one at home in

522
00:24:34,560 --> 00:24:37,239
Speaker 1: the Superdome. Those fans are gonna be going wild. That

523
00:24:37,320 --> 00:24:38,840
Speaker 1: was just gonna be like a really fun bet to

524
00:24:38,920 --> 00:24:41,119
Speaker 1: make where I think I told you I got the

525
00:24:41,160 --> 00:24:43,520
Speaker 1: Green Bay plus three and Adam and a teaser or

526
00:24:43,520 --> 00:24:46,520
Speaker 1: those bets got avoided now just because they change location.

527
00:24:46,880 --> 00:24:49,080
Speaker 1: The Saints are gonna be on the move. They're gonna

528
00:24:49,160 --> 00:24:50,760
Speaker 1: be you know, they're not gonna seep in their own bed.

529
00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:52,640
Speaker 1: They're gonna bet a hotel. It's pretty much a road

530
00:24:52,640 --> 00:24:55,639
Speaker 1: game for them, and the Green Bay just across the

531
00:24:55,680 --> 00:24:58,320
Speaker 1: board talent wise is superior in every pretty much position.

532
00:24:58,480 --> 00:25:01,760
Speaker 1: So for me, I being chalky week one, but that's

533
00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:03,359
Speaker 1: that's not think one of the chalk lines I'll be on.

534
00:25:03,359 --> 00:25:05,440
Speaker 1: I'm gonna be on Green Bay at minus four week one,

535
00:25:05,520 --> 00:25:07,960
Speaker 1: just because it just feels there's too much going against

536
00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:11,320
Speaker 1: the Saints right now to really back them. How do

537
00:25:11,359 --> 00:25:14,280
Speaker 1: you think it impacts betting on the Saints for the

538
00:25:14,320 --> 00:25:18,520
Speaker 1: rest of the month, If I'm not incorrect, I think

539
00:25:18,600 --> 00:25:21,640
Speaker 1: that's their only home game the first month of the year.

540
00:25:23,119 --> 00:25:25,720
Speaker 1: That's pretty big. That's that's really good for them. It's

541
00:25:25,720 --> 00:25:27,199
Speaker 1: so hard to say. It's like, do you believe in

542
00:25:27,240 --> 00:25:29,760
Speaker 1: Winston or you don't. I clearly don't believe in Winston

543
00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:31,880
Speaker 1: for the simple fact he's the only quarterback in NFL

544
00:25:31,880 --> 00:25:34,240
Speaker 1: history could have a thirty thirty season. People believe Sean

545
00:25:34,280 --> 00:25:36,159
Speaker 1: Payne can coach that out of him, and I know

546
00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:38,359
Speaker 1: he's got glasses now where he got his eyes fixed.

547
00:25:39,080 --> 00:25:41,359
Speaker 1: I can't do it when it Winston is one of

548
00:25:41,400 --> 00:25:43,160
Speaker 1: these guys where I just cannot do it, where I've

549
00:25:43,160 --> 00:25:44,600
Speaker 1: seen him have a good game or two and then

550
00:25:44,600 --> 00:25:46,440
Speaker 1: you'll just have three really bad games in a row.

551
00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:50,480
Speaker 1: So I think people that if you're high on the Saints.

552
00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:52,840
Speaker 1: This kind of has to kill that whole vibe where

553
00:25:52,880 --> 00:25:56,679
Speaker 1: it's like, Okay, this team is being displaced. They you know,

554
00:25:57,160 --> 00:26:01,440
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna say they're they're they just don't have

555
00:26:01,520 --> 00:26:04,399
Speaker 1: that same feeling that we had where Katrina happened. And

556
00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:06,359
Speaker 1: you remember that first Monday Night game I think it

557
00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:09,080
Speaker 1: was the following year they had that that block punt

558
00:26:09,160 --> 00:26:10,960
Speaker 1: and there was everything just set the tone for that season.

559
00:26:11,000 --> 00:26:13,240
Speaker 1: They end up winning the Super Bowl. No one has

560
00:26:13,280 --> 00:26:15,080
Speaker 1: that vibe with the Saints team. Everyone just sees the

561
00:26:15,080 --> 00:26:17,600
Speaker 1: Saints team is kind of a rebuild mode. So for me,

562
00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:19,240
Speaker 1: it's just one of the things where it's another negative

563
00:26:19,280 --> 00:26:21,120
Speaker 1: to add to a list for the Saints team. I'm

564
00:26:21,160 --> 00:26:23,240
Speaker 1: just very down on them at this point. The Saints

565
00:26:23,280 --> 00:26:25,400
Speaker 1: are on the road. After that that Green Bay game,

566
00:26:25,440 --> 00:26:27,480
Speaker 1: they are on the road for the next two weeks.

567
00:26:27,520 --> 00:26:32,520
Speaker 1: In September. UH, they're at New England UH for Week three,

568
00:26:33,119 --> 00:26:35,400
Speaker 1: and then I think the week before that it might

569
00:26:35,400 --> 00:26:39,040
Speaker 1: be at where is it at Carolina, right, and then

570
00:26:39,080 --> 00:26:41,080
Speaker 1: they're back home against the Giants in a week four.

571
00:26:41,920 --> 00:26:43,439
Speaker 1: So it might not be that big of an impact

572
00:26:43,440 --> 00:26:45,000
Speaker 1: on the line. It's it's just that first game that

573
00:26:45,000 --> 00:26:51,600
Speaker 1: you gotta think about. And now we're from our sponsor.

574
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575
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576
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577
00:27:02,480 --> 00:27:05,600
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579
00:27:11,160 --> 00:27:14,960
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580
00:27:15,080 --> 00:27:19,160
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581
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592
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595
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597
00:28:15,560 --> 00:28:19,119
Speaker 1: in West Virginia. Let's get back to the show. Uh,

598
00:28:19,359 --> 00:28:21,760
Speaker 1: you were talking about Seattle. Apologize for the for the

599
00:28:21,800 --> 00:28:25,080
Speaker 1: break in the flow there because you had mentioned San

600
00:28:25,160 --> 00:28:27,760
Speaker 1: Francisco's at fourteen to one. L A is at fifteen

601
00:28:27,760 --> 00:28:30,520
Speaker 1: to one. You had said you think this is a

602
00:28:30,520 --> 00:28:33,199
Speaker 1: bounce back a year for Seattle, that a lot of

603
00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:34,920
Speaker 1: things went wrong last year. There was a lot of

604
00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:37,800
Speaker 1: turmoil on this team, a lot of controversy on this team.

605
00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:41,400
Speaker 1: Let Russ cook. Don't let Russ cook. The defense was terrible, terrible,

606
00:28:41,480 --> 00:28:45,840
Speaker 1: The defense got better. Um, they're you know, they're back together,

607
00:28:47,280 --> 00:28:49,920
Speaker 1: Seattle at a twenty one with a team in San

608
00:28:49,920 --> 00:28:52,240
Speaker 1: Francisco that might have something that they have to figure

609
00:28:52,240 --> 00:28:54,440
Speaker 1: out a quarterback, a team in l A that has,

610
00:28:54,680 --> 00:28:59,600
Speaker 1: as I like to say, Matthew Stafford. So Seattle or

611
00:28:59,640 --> 00:29:01,880
Speaker 1: twenty one plus two seventy five ten to one in

612
00:29:01,920 --> 00:29:05,360
Speaker 1: the conference break it down from me, I know you

613
00:29:05,400 --> 00:29:08,040
Speaker 1: did the division break down the rest of it. Yeah,

614
00:29:08,160 --> 00:29:09,840
Speaker 1: I like the twenty on one price. I think they're

615
00:29:09,840 --> 00:29:11,560
Speaker 1: at one point twenty two or twenty five the one,

616
00:29:11,600 --> 00:29:14,320
Speaker 1: which is a really good price too. It's it's one

617
00:29:14,360 --> 00:29:17,080
Speaker 1: of these things where I try to fade people what

618
00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:19,880
Speaker 1: they last saw. So we saw the Seahawks look absolutely

619
00:29:19,960 --> 00:29:22,720
Speaker 1: terrible against the Rams in the playoffs last year at home.

620
00:29:22,800 --> 00:29:25,400
Speaker 1: I mean that was embarrassing. It lost to a backup

621
00:29:25,480 --> 00:29:28,040
Speaker 1: quarterback and one handed Jared Golf at home. If they

622
00:29:28,040 --> 00:29:29,840
Speaker 1: played that game a hundred times, I can't see it

623
00:29:29,920 --> 00:29:32,120
Speaker 1: keep going the way it did. So they got really

624
00:29:32,160 --> 00:29:34,720
Speaker 1: offensive coordinated. They brought in a new OC. Basically their

625
00:29:34,760 --> 00:29:37,160
Speaker 1: offense was they would run it or throw a deep

626
00:29:37,200 --> 00:29:39,400
Speaker 1: ball the DK metcalf for Tyler Lockett. It was just

627
00:29:39,440 --> 00:29:43,200
Speaker 1: a really boring and simple offense that even Russell Wilson

628
00:29:43,280 --> 00:29:45,120
Speaker 1: was complaining about it. He did not like the style

629
00:29:45,120 --> 00:29:47,560
Speaker 1: they had switched to. So for me, I think that

630
00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:52,040
Speaker 1: Russell Wilson has he's at that age. I don't know

631
00:29:52,040 --> 00:29:54,640
Speaker 1: if he's thirty three or thirty four, but he's at

632
00:29:54,680 --> 00:29:56,960
Speaker 1: like the perfect age where it's like, Okay, this guy

633
00:29:57,000 --> 00:29:59,360
Speaker 1: has been in the league now for ten years. He

634
00:29:59,520 --> 00:30:01,080
Speaker 1: was a fifth year senior. I think he played at

635
00:30:01,120 --> 00:30:05,640
Speaker 1: Wisconsin for his fifth year. He he is literally in

636
00:30:05,680 --> 00:30:08,440
Speaker 1: the prime right now. Okay, He's not gonna get that

637
00:30:08,520 --> 00:30:10,680
Speaker 1: much better in the future because we know that rust

638
00:30:10,720 --> 00:30:12,240
Speaker 1: depends on his legs to get out of the pocket

639
00:30:12,240 --> 00:30:14,120
Speaker 1: and move around and make big plays. So for me,

640
00:30:14,800 --> 00:30:16,600
Speaker 1: this kind of feels like it. This feels like the

641
00:30:16,680 --> 00:30:19,760
Speaker 1: last really great run with them, and they got Adams back.

642
00:30:19,840 --> 00:30:21,640
Speaker 1: I know that. I don't know if they read they

643
00:30:21,720 --> 00:30:24,720
Speaker 1: paid that offensive linement, but they have to because they're

644
00:30:24,760 --> 00:30:26,280
Speaker 1: one of the worst parts of this team is their

645
00:30:26,320 --> 00:30:29,200
Speaker 1: O line and their cornerbacks. So those are two major

646
00:30:29,280 --> 00:30:33,680
Speaker 1: red flags for me. But again, that offense. I mean

647
00:30:33,800 --> 00:30:36,920
Speaker 1: Russell Wilson I talked. I think it was thirty to

648
00:30:37,000 --> 00:30:39,320
Speaker 1: one on Vanduel for him to lead the league in passing.

649
00:30:40,560 --> 00:30:42,600
Speaker 1: It's just one of these teams where it's like, man,

650
00:30:42,800 --> 00:30:44,840
Speaker 1: people are just so down on Russ just because he

651
00:30:44,880 --> 00:30:46,480
Speaker 1: had one bad playoff game where the don't forget that.

652
00:30:46,480 --> 00:30:48,000
Speaker 1: I think they were thirteen and three last year. At

653
00:30:48,000 --> 00:30:50,920
Speaker 1: twelve and four, it's just a team that didn't lose anything.

654
00:30:50,960 --> 00:30:54,240
Speaker 1: If anything, they've gotten better switching offensive coordinare. So I

655
00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:56,280
Speaker 1: just love the value that everyone's down on the Seahawks

656
00:30:56,320 --> 00:30:58,000
Speaker 1: and I can get them at a good discount of price.

657
00:30:58,680 --> 00:31:01,480
Speaker 1: Do you still like Russell Uin thirty to one at

658
00:31:02,360 --> 00:31:05,080
Speaker 1: to lead the league in passing? I still like it,

659
00:31:05,160 --> 00:31:07,080
Speaker 1: but it's interesting how much his numbers come down. So

660
00:31:07,120 --> 00:31:08,960
Speaker 1: I made I have a couple of weird bets I

661
00:31:09,040 --> 00:31:10,800
Speaker 1: think we did. We talked about Ryan Tanner, I mean

662
00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:15,040
Speaker 1: Ryan Matt Ryan right, And I actually did a pretty

663
00:31:15,040 --> 00:31:17,000
Speaker 1: big bet on Derek car which is kind of out

664
00:31:17,000 --> 00:31:19,360
Speaker 1: there um to be on. Look, I'm gonna do a

665
00:31:19,360 --> 00:31:21,560
Speaker 1: futures article with Tommy. We're gonna talk about like some

666
00:31:21,600 --> 00:31:26,440
Speaker 1: future bets I did. Tommy are one of our news editors. Yeah, yeah,

667
00:31:26,520 --> 00:31:27,920
Speaker 1: we were gonna do it today. But all this ship

668
00:31:27,920 --> 00:31:29,760
Speaker 1: went down with Mac, I was just like, dude, don't

669
00:31:29,800 --> 00:31:31,760
Speaker 1: worry about me, Like I know, I know, he's got

670
00:31:31,760 --> 00:31:34,600
Speaker 1: a lot of ship going on. So it's one of

671
00:31:34,640 --> 00:31:36,560
Speaker 1: these things where I'm I'm looking for guys that have

672
00:31:36,760 --> 00:31:39,320
Speaker 1: great arm talent with bad defenses, and I see that

673
00:31:39,440 --> 00:31:42,640
Speaker 1: the Seahawks and Seahawks. I know Adams is unbelievable. But again,

674
00:31:42,640 --> 00:31:45,719
Speaker 1: their cornerbacks are terrible at the Seahawks. Like people forget

675
00:31:45,760 --> 00:31:48,280
Speaker 1: that game with the Cowboys last year. I mean, Dak

676
00:31:48,280 --> 00:31:50,080
Speaker 1: Press got through for about five hundred yards and the

677
00:31:50,080 --> 00:31:51,760
Speaker 1: next week Cam Newton went up there and through for

678
00:31:51,760 --> 00:31:54,400
Speaker 1: five hundred yards. So it's one of these things where, man,

679
00:31:54,560 --> 00:31:56,680
Speaker 1: I don't know if they made enough improvements on that defense,

680
00:31:56,920 --> 00:31:59,240
Speaker 1: have to back Russ where everyone's down and Russ and

681
00:31:59,280 --> 00:32:01,480
Speaker 1: everyone's down on us. This feels like the kind of

682
00:32:01,560 --> 00:32:04,680
Speaker 1: year where he really takes to another level. So again, people,

683
00:32:05,200 --> 00:32:06,920
Speaker 1: you can do you can do your own research on it.

684
00:32:06,960 --> 00:32:09,400
Speaker 1: But I look at this team and I think to myself, Okay,

685
00:32:09,640 --> 00:32:11,760
Speaker 1: they probably should be plus one fifty on this division,

686
00:32:11,800 --> 00:32:13,840
Speaker 1: not plus two seventies. So I'm getting a crazy amount

687
00:32:13,840 --> 00:32:16,000
Speaker 1: of value on this team. What do you think of

688
00:32:16,000 --> 00:32:19,200
Speaker 1: their win total at ten right now? I love it.

689
00:32:19,200 --> 00:32:20,760
Speaker 1: It's a little scary because it feels like a trap

690
00:32:20,800 --> 00:32:22,800
Speaker 1: where it's like, I think they've only gone below that

691
00:32:23,080 --> 00:32:26,320
Speaker 1: once in Russell's entire career, So it's definitely an interesting

692
00:32:26,360 --> 00:32:28,760
Speaker 1: line they're laying up there. But at worst I see

693
00:32:28,760 --> 00:32:30,200
Speaker 1: it being a push. I had a great at ten

694
00:32:30,240 --> 00:32:33,040
Speaker 1: point three, so for me, that's that's a really fair number.

695
00:32:33,040 --> 00:32:36,600
Speaker 1: They're hanging there at ten. You're making me think, you're

696
00:32:36,640 --> 00:32:40,440
Speaker 1: making me think hard about plus two seventy and over ten,

697
00:32:40,520 --> 00:32:44,200
Speaker 1: I'm gonna probably have to I'll probably have to make

698
00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:46,480
Speaker 1: an investment, as they like to say. Yeah, it feels

699
00:32:46,480 --> 00:32:49,440
Speaker 1: like Pittsburgh lass year, where Pittsburgh everyone's just down on them, like, oh,

700
00:32:49,560 --> 00:32:52,320
Speaker 1: Ben's old. They're kind of the old toy, Let's bet

701
00:32:52,320 --> 00:32:54,400
Speaker 1: the Ravens, let's bet the Browns, and new shot the

702
00:32:54,440 --> 00:32:57,200
Speaker 1: new fund kind of like shiny objects where I get

703
00:32:57,240 --> 00:32:59,120
Speaker 1: the same five year, everyone's kind of left the Seahawks

704
00:32:59,160 --> 00:33:01,240
Speaker 1: left for dead, where it's like this team one and

705
00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:03,560
Speaker 1: dominated this division last year. I don't know why people

706
00:33:03,560 --> 00:33:08,240
Speaker 1: are so down on them. Um. I feel like, also,

707
00:33:10,600 --> 00:33:14,200
Speaker 1: oh Russell Wilson, by the way, it's thirty two years old. Yeah,

708
00:33:14,200 --> 00:33:18,200
Speaker 1: that sounds right, the thirty three in November. Uh. You

709
00:33:18,240 --> 00:33:23,080
Speaker 1: mentioned Detroit, Uh in week one. We've also talked about

710
00:33:23,080 --> 00:33:26,720
Speaker 1: the Texans in week one. I feel like I'm looking

711
00:33:26,760 --> 00:33:30,120
Speaker 1: at Week one right now, and we're gonna have like

712
00:33:30,920 --> 00:33:34,720
Speaker 1: the all gross starting five. If I had to predict,

713
00:33:35,320 --> 00:33:37,280
Speaker 1: if I had to predict where we're gonna land in

714
00:33:37,320 --> 00:33:40,440
Speaker 1: Week one. Right now, I see uh, Sandford, I see

715
00:33:40,440 --> 00:33:43,760
Speaker 1: Detroit plus seven and a half. Totally, totally bet than that.

716
00:33:44,240 --> 00:33:46,720
Speaker 1: I think we'll bet Kansas City minus six and a

717
00:33:46,760 --> 00:33:50,480
Speaker 1: half against against Cleveland. No, we won't. We won't bet that.

718
00:33:50,640 --> 00:33:52,200
Speaker 1: It's an interesting one where it's they have a whole

719
00:33:52,240 --> 00:33:54,920
Speaker 1: new offensive line. But of course the Browns historically are

720
00:33:54,960 --> 00:33:57,360
Speaker 1: awful on the first day of the year, so it's

721
00:33:57,400 --> 00:34:02,600
Speaker 1: definitely an interesting line. I see uh, and then I've

722
00:34:02,600 --> 00:34:05,800
Speaker 1: got hold on where was it? I know we have

723
00:34:06,320 --> 00:34:10,279
Speaker 1: Houston somewhere. Where the hell is Houston. I probably won't

724
00:34:10,280 --> 00:34:12,200
Speaker 1: make you do Houston because I'm already making you to Detroit,

725
00:34:12,280 --> 00:34:15,440
Speaker 1: but you're you're gonna see Chad this. I can't remember

726
00:34:15,480 --> 00:34:17,720
Speaker 1: a time in my life I've had more home dogs

727
00:34:17,840 --> 00:34:20,560
Speaker 1: week one of the opening to start the year. I

728
00:34:20,600 --> 00:34:22,960
Speaker 1: think it's simply because people forget that fans make that

729
00:34:23,000 --> 00:34:26,120
Speaker 1: big of a difference in home openers. So, by the way,

730
00:34:26,200 --> 00:34:29,200
Speaker 1: I'm not afraid to make disgusting decisions. I do it

731
00:34:29,239 --> 00:34:32,719
Speaker 1: all the time. I fucking hired Matt Mitchell. I'm not

732
00:34:32,760 --> 00:34:37,960
Speaker 1: afraid of disgusting decisions. Chad Millman is proud of himself,

733
00:34:38,360 --> 00:34:41,600
Speaker 1: so if we're gonna, like I'm saying, if if we're

734
00:34:41,640 --> 00:34:45,080
Speaker 1: locking in two weeks out, if we're locking in the

735
00:34:45,200 --> 00:34:47,239
Speaker 1: two teams that we think will be the worst in

736
00:34:47,239 --> 00:34:50,880
Speaker 1: the NFL, I'm okay with that. I'm totally comfortable with that.

737
00:34:50,920 --> 00:34:52,480
Speaker 1: In fact, might end up doing it. But like again,

738
00:34:52,480 --> 00:34:55,920
Speaker 1: I'm gonna make I'm I'm not that I'm nervous, but

739
00:34:55,960 --> 00:34:57,560
Speaker 1: it's one of these things where it's the first week

740
00:34:57,560 --> 00:34:59,279
Speaker 1: of the year and it's like, you know, if this

741
00:34:59,320 --> 00:35:01,240
Speaker 1: was week sick, we'd be all in on the Giants.

742
00:35:01,280 --> 00:35:02,640
Speaker 1: The Giants, I think are two and a half point

743
00:35:02,680 --> 00:35:05,240
Speaker 1: underdogs at home. Again, it's just there's all these different

744
00:35:05,280 --> 00:35:08,200
Speaker 1: teams at home underdogs where it's like, man, the public

745
00:35:08,320 --> 00:35:10,439
Speaker 1: is either gonna get slaughtered week one or they're gonna

746
00:35:10,440 --> 00:35:13,400
Speaker 1: have a field day, because it's just like, it's insane

747
00:35:13,440 --> 00:35:16,200
Speaker 1: how much the public is betting on these road favorites.

748
00:35:16,320 --> 00:35:18,840
Speaker 1: I've never seen it before in my life of betting NFL.

749
00:35:18,920 --> 00:35:21,719
Speaker 1: Where it's Week one, I'm not even drinking. I think

750
00:35:21,719 --> 00:35:24,120
Speaker 1: there's six home dogs in Week one, which is like,

751
00:35:24,680 --> 00:35:27,200
Speaker 1: again to me, that's historic, that's very rare you see

752
00:35:27,200 --> 00:35:29,520
Speaker 1: that many home dogs. So we're gonna have a great

753
00:35:29,520 --> 00:35:32,160
Speaker 1: week one chat, I can promise you that, well, listen,

754
00:35:32,320 --> 00:35:34,279
Speaker 1: all I'm saying right now is I might want to

755
00:35:34,320 --> 00:35:38,400
Speaker 1: go into a money line parlay on the Texans and Alliance.

756
00:35:38,840 --> 00:35:41,120
Speaker 1: Oh that We're definitely gonna have a couple of those going. Well,

757
00:35:41,200 --> 00:35:46,040
Speaker 1: We'll have a round robin parlay on the Texans, the Giants,

758
00:35:46,280 --> 00:35:49,920
Speaker 1: you name it, the Dolphins, whoever. It's gonna be like

759
00:35:50,080 --> 00:35:53,800
Speaker 1: we're doing it all right the last And Matt Mitchell

760
00:35:53,880 --> 00:35:57,279
Speaker 1: is not engaging right now. I hope he's listening. But

761
00:35:58,239 --> 00:36:05,840
Speaker 1: nobody has done better takedowns of Cliff Kingsbury then Matt Mitchell.

762
00:36:06,600 --> 00:36:09,680
Speaker 1: And this is a team that is currently forty eight

763
00:36:09,719 --> 00:36:11,600
Speaker 1: to one to win the Super Bowl, to one to

764
00:36:11,640 --> 00:36:13,279
Speaker 1: win the conference, six and a half to want to

765
00:36:13,320 --> 00:36:17,040
Speaker 1: win the Division. Eight and a half uh games is

766
00:36:17,080 --> 00:36:24,000
Speaker 1: their season win total. What do we do with this team? Aid?

767
00:36:24,320 --> 00:36:27,040
Speaker 1: We just gotta fade him. I love Cayler Murray. I

768
00:36:27,080 --> 00:36:30,560
Speaker 1: think he's an incredible player, but I hate all the

769
00:36:30,560 --> 00:36:32,799
Speaker 1: moves they made. I didn't like the J. J. Watt signing.

770
00:36:32,880 --> 00:36:35,160
Speaker 1: I feel like he's passed his prime. I didn't like

771
00:36:35,239 --> 00:36:37,520
Speaker 1: a J. Green signing. That's another guy that's way past

772
00:36:37,600 --> 00:36:41,880
Speaker 1: his prime, and I look at this team where again

773
00:36:42,040 --> 00:36:45,279
Speaker 1: it's it's not that I'm so down on Kingsbury, it's

774
00:36:45,320 --> 00:36:47,120
Speaker 1: just the simple fact that we have the history, we

775
00:36:47,160 --> 00:36:49,680
Speaker 1: have the numbers that this guy falls apart every year

776
00:36:49,800 --> 00:36:53,000
Speaker 1: in the second half of the season. So like last year,

777
00:36:53,040 --> 00:36:54,640
Speaker 1: they can start out great. I remember last year they

778
00:36:54,640 --> 00:36:58,800
Speaker 1: Week one, they beat um the San Francisco forty Niners,

779
00:36:58,920 --> 00:37:00,440
Speaker 1: and that was what Jimmy g Sir one was going

780
00:37:00,440 --> 00:37:03,000
Speaker 1: crazy like, oh my god, this Cardinals team is gonna

781
00:37:03,000 --> 00:37:04,919
Speaker 1: be the next real deal. And they had a bunch

782
00:37:04,920 --> 00:37:07,439
Speaker 1: of good wins, like they had that huge Hell Mary

783
00:37:07,480 --> 00:37:10,960
Speaker 1: against the Bills. But we saw it happen that that

784
00:37:10,560 --> 00:37:12,840
Speaker 1: that these teams kind of figured them out and they

785
00:37:12,920 --> 00:37:14,399
Speaker 1: kind of fell apart there at the end of the year.

786
00:37:14,440 --> 00:37:17,480
Speaker 1: So again, it's nothing against Kyler Murray. It's a it's

787
00:37:17,480 --> 00:37:19,640
Speaker 1: a bet against Kingsbury where I think his offense has

788
00:37:19,680 --> 00:37:22,360
Speaker 1: been figured out by all these dcs and I just

789
00:37:22,400 --> 00:37:24,799
Speaker 1: do not cause I cannot see them getting over eight

790
00:37:24,800 --> 00:37:27,000
Speaker 1: and a half wins in this division. This is uh

791
00:37:27,080 --> 00:37:30,319
Speaker 1: one of the bigger under beets I've made this season. Yeah,

792
00:37:30,360 --> 00:37:35,640
Speaker 1: that's a it's a he is so bad and feels

793
00:37:35,719 --> 00:37:37,840
Speaker 1: like so out of his depth. As soon as you

794
00:37:37,880 --> 00:37:40,920
Speaker 1: get four or five games in, Matt Mitchell, are you listening?

795
00:37:41,560 --> 00:37:43,879
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, Do you want to weigh in here? Because

796
00:37:43,920 --> 00:37:47,040
Speaker 1: you have more Cliff Kingsbury hate than as possible, and

797
00:37:47,040 --> 00:37:51,640
Speaker 1: you've got great stats from his history with Patrick mahomes Hey,

798
00:37:51,680 --> 00:37:54,799
Speaker 1: Thanks d. Before I begin my rent on Cliff, I'm

799
00:37:54,800 --> 00:37:57,880
Speaker 1: gonna bring in the Little River Band because they wrote

800
00:37:57,880 --> 00:38:00,400
Speaker 1: a song about Cliff the year he was born, in

801
00:38:00,480 --> 00:38:05,440
Speaker 1: nineteen seventy nine. Have you had up about the lords

802
00:38:05,520 --> 00:38:15,080
Speaker 1: of Loser? He's a loser, but he still keeps up. Try.

803
00:38:15,960 --> 00:38:18,319
Speaker 1: I'm always ready to talk about Club Kingsbury, a man

804
00:38:18,400 --> 00:38:21,520
Speaker 1: who I've hated since long before I even had children,

805
00:38:21,600 --> 00:38:24,920
Speaker 1: which feels like forty years ago, because he's been losing

806
00:38:25,040 --> 00:38:27,080
Speaker 1: gambler's money for as long as he's been in charge

807
00:38:27,080 --> 00:38:30,359
Speaker 1: of football teams. Here is his record at the end

808
00:38:30,400 --> 00:38:35,480
Speaker 1: of every season since he took over Texas Tech. In

809
00:38:35,480 --> 00:38:38,840
Speaker 1: in he lost four of his last five games. The

810
00:38:38,880 --> 00:38:41,360
Speaker 1: next year he lost four of his last sex, and

811
00:38:41,400 --> 00:38:44,239
Speaker 1: in twenty sixteen he lost six of his last eight. Wow,

812
00:38:44,280 --> 00:38:46,480
Speaker 1: that's a lot of losing. You may ask yourself, what

813
00:38:46,560 --> 00:38:49,800
Speaker 1: kind of dogship quarterback did he have, oh ahead, Patrick

814
00:38:50,320 --> 00:38:53,319
Speaker 1: fucking Mahomes as his quarterback for those three years. Oh so,

815
00:38:53,400 --> 00:38:56,239
Speaker 1: what what happens after that? Well, in seventeen he lost

816
00:38:56,239 --> 00:38:59,839
Speaker 1: six of his last eight. In eighteen, he lost all

817
00:39:00,120 --> 00:39:03,560
Speaker 1: five of his final five. In twenty nineteen he lost

818
00:39:03,560 --> 00:39:06,680
Speaker 1: seven of nine, and last year he lost six of nine,

819
00:39:07,000 --> 00:39:09,600
Speaker 1: and one of those three wins was a fucking hail Mary.

820
00:39:09,840 --> 00:39:12,960
Speaker 1: So I'm not sure how this guy failed up into

821
00:39:13,000 --> 00:39:16,320
Speaker 1: an NFL job, but he's His offense now was basically

822
00:39:16,840 --> 00:39:18,880
Speaker 1: the you know, the macarrey. Now, it was quite the

823
00:39:18,960 --> 00:39:21,640
Speaker 1: rage a long time ago. People have since moved on

824
00:39:21,880 --> 00:39:25,239
Speaker 1: and figured it out, and that's been demonstrated over and

825
00:39:25,480 --> 00:39:29,319
Speaker 1: over and over and over again. And yet people still

826
00:39:29,360 --> 00:39:32,000
Speaker 1: believe that he is an offensive genius because he's very

827
00:39:32,080 --> 00:39:34,600
Speaker 1: handsome and he seems like a swell guy. But it's

828
00:39:34,600 --> 00:39:36,960
Speaker 1: weird that there's seems to be very few topics that

829
00:39:37,000 --> 00:39:39,720
Speaker 1: you gamblers all over the world, and hating Cliff Kingsbury

830
00:39:39,800 --> 00:39:41,879
Speaker 1: is one of those. Anyway, thank you, I will now

831
00:39:42,000 --> 00:39:51,719
Speaker 1: end my rate good. I want people to understand we

832
00:39:51,800 --> 00:39:53,600
Speaker 1: might back him to start the year, but we're gonna

833
00:39:53,600 --> 00:39:55,799
Speaker 1: be fading him second half of the season no matter

834
00:39:55,840 --> 00:39:57,960
Speaker 1: what so it's definitely thing to keep your eye on.

835
00:39:58,200 --> 00:40:00,399
Speaker 1: I did the math. I looked it up. While Matt

836
00:40:00,440 --> 00:40:10,359
Speaker 1: Mitchell was ranting, these are the home dogs week one Indianapolis, Washington, Houston, Cincinnati,

837
00:40:10,760 --> 00:40:16,120
Speaker 1: Detroit Giants read ass and I don't know if you

838
00:40:16,160 --> 00:40:18,200
Speaker 1: can see in the app their home dogs are getting

839
00:40:18,239 --> 00:40:20,799
Speaker 1: no money better on that? Like this is I'm telling

840
00:40:20,840 --> 00:40:22,680
Speaker 1: you people, this is what me and Chad dream about.

841
00:40:22,840 --> 00:40:25,719
Speaker 1: We love these kind of opportunities. So you're gonna get

842
00:40:25,760 --> 00:40:27,919
Speaker 1: the best of the number by far, because the sports

843
00:40:27,960 --> 00:40:29,719
Speaker 1: books are gonna keep moving the number until the pro

844
00:40:29,880 --> 00:40:32,759
Speaker 1: is coming on the other side. So again, it's many things.

845
00:40:32,800 --> 00:40:34,480
Speaker 1: If you're riding with me and Chad, keep waiting, we're

846
00:40:34,480 --> 00:40:36,160
Speaker 1: gonna get better numbers to be a closer to the

847
00:40:36,200 --> 00:40:39,000
Speaker 1: first week of season. The only question is going to

848
00:40:39,080 --> 00:40:41,479
Speaker 1: be and the beauty of us doing the podcast twice

849
00:40:41,520 --> 00:40:44,800
Speaker 1: a week now, Well, no, on Tuesday, should we be

850
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Speaker 1: pulling the trigger? Do we have twenty four hours to

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00:40:47,360 --> 00:40:49,920
Speaker 1: pull the trigger? Thursday we can let people know if

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00:40:49,960 --> 00:40:52,480
Speaker 1: we have pulled the trigger, what we're leaning to for

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00:40:52,520 --> 00:40:55,960
Speaker 1: our weekend five. I will then debate Colin on the

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00:40:55,960 --> 00:40:59,040
Speaker 1: podcast we are recording the podcasts uh he and I

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Speaker 1: were doing on Thursday evenings, so I'll have the full

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00:41:02,239 --> 00:41:04,719
Speaker 1: bevy of information that you and I have to try

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Speaker 1: to convince him of everything he's doing that's wrong. And

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Speaker 1: he will put that podcast out on Friday. Um, but

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Speaker 1: I'm starting. I'm already stalivating it. All the good ideas

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00:41:14,200 --> 00:41:16,640
Speaker 1: we're gonna have and all the good decisions we're gonna

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00:41:16,680 --> 00:41:20,440
Speaker 1: make in Week one of the NFL season. Before we

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00:41:20,480 --> 00:41:22,640
Speaker 1: get to Week one, we do have to do our

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00:41:22,680 --> 00:41:24,600
Speaker 1: one final division. We're gonna do that on Thursday. We're

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00:41:24,640 --> 00:41:27,240
Speaker 1: gonna do the a f C West. Where you mentioned

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Speaker 1: the Raiders, We've also got the Broncos. We've also got

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs. We've also got the team I love the

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Speaker 1: most in the NFL, the Chargers, and the team that

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00:41:34,760 --> 00:41:37,920
Speaker 1: everybody loves most in the NFL, the Kansas City Chiefs.

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Speaker 1: Will do that on Thursday. For Simon Hunter. I am

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Speaker 1: Chad Millman. This has been the favorite from the Volume

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Speaker 1: podcast Network. Download the podcast, Apple, Podcast, Spotify, wherever you

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00:41:47,560 --> 00:41:50,319
Speaker 1: get your podcast, Rate review, subscribe. We love us. We

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00:41:50,360 --> 00:41:55,759
Speaker 1: need adulation. It feeds Simon's soul. I love you