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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that Action Boss.

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Speaker 3: All right.

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Speaker 2: Here we got growing in job spector.

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Speaker 1: We're sitting. It's a cash start.

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Speaker 3: We'll see most gambles when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 3: go to wind.

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Speaker 1: That's incredible. Big bank, small bank.

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Speaker 4: I like to make money, all right.

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Speaker 1: That is the ultimate kaba.

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Speaker 4: You want to bet?

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Speaker 1: And we are underway.

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Speaker 4: All right. This is Chad Melman with the Action Network.

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Speaker 3: We are at Caesar's Sportsbook in New Orleans. It's the

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Speaker 3: first time that a Super Bowl has been held in

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Speaker 3: New Orleans, blocks away from the Caesar Superdome since sports

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Speaker 3: betting became legal in the United States and since it

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Speaker 3: became legal in Louisiana. With Cred Mucklow, VP of Risk

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Speaker 3: and Trading for Caesar Sportsbook nationwide, good to see your brother.

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Speaker 3: Tell me right now now kind the city short favorite

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Speaker 3: over the Eagles.

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Speaker 4: Who do you need this weekend?

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Speaker 1: We're Eagles fans right now.

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Speaker 2: Based on some of the futures positions as well, we

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Speaker 2: always see money the previous year of those competing in

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Speaker 2: the Super Bowl, so we took a lot of action

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Speaker 2: on San Francisco and the Chiefs last year, which would

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Speaker 2: have drove the number down and obviously created the liability.

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Speaker 2: This year again we'll see the same Like the Chiefs

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Speaker 2: are plus five eighty to win it next year as well,

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Speaker 2: so we'll see that money come Sunday. But given that

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Speaker 2: future's position, we're big Eagles fans on the game right now.

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Speaker 2: Outside of the futures, we're pretty level. We don't want

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Speaker 2: the Chiefs exactly two or the Chiefs exactly three, but

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Speaker 2: sixty percent of the handle still to come on Sunday,

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Speaker 2: So my position might change on Sunday, but as of now,

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Speaker 2: go Eagles.

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Speaker 4: I mean, that's what's interesting.

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Speaker 3: And you guys have seen the Caesars has been such

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Speaker 3: a dominant book in the space for so long, the

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Speaker 3: number of vets and markets that are available, right I've

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Speaker 3: got bets on the Chiefs to win between one and six.

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Speaker 3: I've got bets on the Chiefs to win by exactly three.

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Speaker 3: I've got bets on the Chiefs money line. I've got

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Speaker 3: bets on the Chiefs minus one and a half. The

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Speaker 3: opportunity to get money down on all these things also

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Speaker 3: just escalates the liability and risk for you guys as

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Speaker 3: it has grown so much.

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Speaker 4: How have you managed that risk?

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Speaker 2: You obviously need the Chiefs by one score, which I've

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Speaker 2: pretty much done pretty often.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I need the Chiefs for everything.

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Speaker 4: I need the Chiefs for my RUMs.

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Speaker 1: Right there you go, and it's the golden rule. Don't

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Speaker 1: bet against Patrick Mahomes.

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Speaker 2: Right, You're all looking at different kind of reports, looking

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Speaker 2: at the liabilities constantly. I mean I send the execs

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Speaker 2: of Caesars an email every night. This is where we

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Speaker 2: stand on the game, this is where we are ticket wise,

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Speaker 2: this is what we don't want. So we all can

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Speaker 2: share for it or against it in our own way.

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Speaker 2: But you know the execs love looking at that thing

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Speaker 2: as well and seeing where we stand. Sunday I'll be

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Speaker 2: completely different. But yeah, you're always looking at certain markets.

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Speaker 2: You know, We've got our eye on our same game

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Speaker 2: parlay right now, which has been bet by thousands of people,

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Speaker 2: and it's Travis Kelcey to score any time, Mahomes anytime,

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Speaker 2: aj Brown anytime, and DeVante Smith anytime. It pays sixty

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Speaker 2: to one and it's our biggest liability. So it's bigger

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Speaker 2: than the game right now, which which just shows the

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Speaker 2: growth of the product that you're talking about.

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Speaker 3: Well, look, that's you know that everyone in the sports

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Speaker 3: betting industry likes to talk about there's the public and

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Speaker 3: there's the professionals. And when you were talking about the public,

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Speaker 3: you're talking about taking the most popular bets and then bundling.

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Speaker 4: Them together in these paraways.

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Speaker 3: So when you talk about an SGP that is Kelsey

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Speaker 3: mahomes aj Brown, that's talking about a very public bet.

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Speaker 3: Right now, when you think about sort of the public

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Speaker 3: versus the professionals, how is that stepping up to it?

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Speaker 2: As the public and the professionals are all over Saquon

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Speaker 2: bark in markets. Literally, the ticket count is unbelievable just

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Speaker 2: on his any time sounds scored, there's more tickets on

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Speaker 2: him than the Chiefs and the Eagles combined on the

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Speaker 2: spread and the money line. That's how crazy it is,

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Speaker 2: this interesting sake on Barkley. I got to bed dreaming

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Speaker 2: of him every night in all the wrong ways, unfortunately.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, you're you're looking at those things.

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Speaker 2: And it's been a year of favorites for the customer's

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Speaker 2: historical year for NFL results, So the customers have got

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Speaker 2: the funds to bet with. Courtesy is a supports book

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Speaker 2: in the NFL results, But you know, a sixty to

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Speaker 2: one shop it doesn't take big amount of money to

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Speaker 2: put on. It's small, small dollars, big return. As for

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Speaker 2: the game, the publics are on the Chiefs. The sharps

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Speaker 2: until Wednesday were very quiet, and then we saw a

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Speaker 2: run of Eagles bets, so three one hundred thousand dollars

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Speaker 2: wages on the Eagles, and then somebody was brave enough

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Speaker 2: here to put one hundred and ten thousand on the under.

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Speaker 2: Forty nine and a half add this book. So the

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Speaker 2: sharps are on the under and the Eagles. The public's

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Speaker 2: on the Chiefs, but that might all change come Sunday.

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Speaker 4: So when you tag.

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Speaker 3: About Saquon Barkley, what are the markets people are betting

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Speaker 3: on for.

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Speaker 2: Saque Well, anytime touchdown score and minus one ninety to

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Speaker 2: score two or more plus two ninety. And now it's

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Speaker 2: like because he scored three in a championship game. His

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Speaker 2: rushing yards is one hundred and twelve and a half

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Speaker 2: and I can't remember in twenty six years set and

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Speaker 2: a number that high, but it can pretty much do

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Speaker 2: that in two runs. I mean, we saw he broke

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Speaker 2: off a seventy yard a first player of the game

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Speaker 2: in the conference championship. So we're always mindful of that. So, yeah,

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Speaker 2: he's exceptionally popular. If Karma and Klass wins you a

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Speaker 2: super Bowl, there's no other person that deserves it. He

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Speaker 2: could have broke the single game record and the rushing

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Speaker 2: record of all time against his former team shows not

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Speaker 2: too he's mind's on winning a Super Bowl.

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Speaker 3: So with Taquon, what's interesting is you mentioned three touchdowns

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Speaker 3: in the champions Conference championship game.

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Speaker 4: Naturally people are.

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Speaker 3: Gonna come back and they're gonna want to bet on

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Speaker 3: the two plus touchdowns. His rushing euros for the championship

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Speaker 3: game I think opened in some places like one hundred

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Speaker 3: and twenty nine and then close closer to one twenty one.

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Speaker 3: He had that sixty yeard teschown opening game, still didn't.

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Speaker 4: Go over his Russian total.

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Speaker 3: I know a lot of professionals I've spoken to have

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Speaker 3: been betting the under on the one twelve because even

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Speaker 3: that feels extraordinarily high. When you guys are coming up

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Speaker 3: with a number and there are extenuating circumstances like that,

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Speaker 3: how are you deciding what the threshold is for something

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Speaker 3: that is so outside of what the normal bounds are.

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Speaker 2: Usually when we're in the trading room and we have

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Speaker 2: like a it's not a party.

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Speaker 1: We put all the props together.

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Speaker 2: Bunch of us get together in the boardroom and we

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Speaker 2: work out in numbers, and we all have different opinions,

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Speaker 2: and we all have different ways of getting to that number,

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Speaker 2: and then we'll come up with a consensus between us.

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Speaker 2: Unless somebody is really really passionate that the number is

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Speaker 2: too low or too high, that we'll adjust it and

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Speaker 2: we'll put a number up.

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Speaker 1: And then when the.

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Speaker 2: Number goes up, your first bet usually tells you if

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Speaker 2: you're right or wrong. We've been humbled enough times this year,

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Speaker 2: and we get humbled again. We took up to some

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Speaker 2: under so we did move from one thirteen and a

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Speaker 2: half to one twelve and a half.

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Speaker 1: It probably will lower as well.

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Speaker 2: But also you need had the gameplays out, so you

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Speaker 2: know if the Eagles are up by more than one score,

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Speaker 2: because they need to be to win the Super Bowl,

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Speaker 2: because you can't beat my homes just being up one score.

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Speaker 2: They're gonna have to run the ball and they're gonna

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Speaker 2: have to protect you.

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Speaker 1: Kill the clocks.

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Speaker 2: That's their game plan, and that determines probably Barkley's yardage.

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Speaker 2: But as I said, he could break that in one

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Speaker 2: run and then all of a sudden, if you're on

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Speaker 2: the over, you're you've got a chance.

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Speaker 3: What's really interesting to me about this year is that

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Speaker 3: the Chiefs opened one and a half, got that up

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Speaker 3: a little bit to two, came back down. Last year

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Speaker 3: the Chiefs opened as one and a half two point underdogs.

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Speaker 3: You taught to professional betters last year they had the

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Speaker 3: Chiefs as they had the Niners roster as being more

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Speaker 3: talented across the board than the Chiefs. This year, you

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Speaker 3: talk professional betters and bookmakers, they're power rating the Eagles

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Speaker 3: and their roster is probably one and a half to

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Speaker 3: two points better than the Chiefs. Yet last year the

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Speaker 3: Chiefs open as the underdogs. This year the opener's favorites.

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Speaker 3: Can you explain how you account for the Mahomes effect

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Speaker 3: and what's changed in the past year.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and look, i'd by no means am I any sharp,

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Speaker 2: But I made the Eagles a slight favorite on my

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Speaker 2: numbers as well. A couple of the guys on the

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Speaker 2: team did as well. Other people had the Chiefs's favorites.

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Speaker 2: But then you have to factor in the patch in

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Speaker 2: Mahome's effects. So sometimes it's yeah, like we can buy

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Speaker 2: and sell at this, but at what point will people

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Speaker 2: buy it and not sell it? So we put the

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Speaker 2: number up knowing who to see Chiefs money early, you're correct,

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Speaker 2: we got bet down. We went down to one and

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Speaker 2: a half and then we went down to one. The

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Speaker 2: Sharps love the Eagles, but you know, we've got a

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Speaker 2: couple of people I've been told to this morning, that

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Speaker 2: couple of big six figure bets that are waiting to

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Speaker 2: happen on the Chiefs. So maybe some of that money

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Speaker 2: might be coming back. But yeah, I make the Eagles

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Speaker 2: the better team on my numbers, But there's a certain

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Speaker 2: Patrick Mahomes and that.

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Speaker 1: Quality, Well, how do.

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Speaker 4: You account for that?

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Speaker 3: Like is it just you're in the room, you're talking

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Speaker 3: to your traders and you're like, you know what, if

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Speaker 3: it's this close, we cannot in good conscience make Patrick

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Speaker 3: Mahomes an underdog.

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Speaker 4: But then how do you decide how many points that

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Speaker 4: is worth?

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Speaker 3: And the opportunity that you're opening yourself up to with professional.

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Speaker 2: Letters, yeah, because you could get it very wrong, especially

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Speaker 2: when you're flipping favorites. You know, you could take money

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Speaker 2: on a dog on the money line that favorite flips.

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Speaker 1: You've got the dog again. You're betting over broke.

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Speaker 2: You know, the traders when I said my number, laughing

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Speaker 2: about the buildings, said get on a plane to New Orleans.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, Mahomes factor, the Brady factors no different. It's

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Speaker 2: worth a couple of points. It's not a huge your amount,

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Speaker 2: but you know people will bet it, so it's how

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Speaker 2: high it is? Too high, and you'll put that number up.

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Speaker 2: And if nobody's betting it your numbers, you're numbers right.

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Speaker 1: But if your.

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Speaker 2: Sharps are betting it back the opposite way, I know

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Speaker 2: you know the value as well.

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Speaker 1: Then we we're.

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Speaker 2: Humble enough to understand that, like, yeah, you're right on this,

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Speaker 2: let's move it.

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Speaker 3: You've mentioned Saquon Berkley as the prop that is getting

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Speaker 3: the most attention. You mentioned that SGP with the big names,

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Speaker 3: that is sort of your biggest liability.

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Speaker 4: You've been doing this a long time. How have you

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Speaker 4: seen the.

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Speaker 3: Prop market, the SGP market grown, especially central legalization, and

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Speaker 3: how does that impact how you do your job when

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Speaker 3: you get to.

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Speaker 2: A moment like this, Yeah, it's the forty nine lines

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Speaker 2: on December thirtieth, a few weeks back, we thought we

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Speaker 2: did great to the game, and then the sgp's come

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Speaker 2: out and all the touchdown scorers.

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Speaker 1: So now it's it's not just the game.

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Speaker 2: You look at your money line, you spread, you look

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Speaker 2: at the grid of where we stand on the numbers,

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Speaker 2: and it's that's like half the story now, because there's

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Speaker 2: so many more markets and there's so many hidden things

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Speaker 2: where you could have five six touchdown scorers parlaid up

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Speaker 2: in the same game parlot, and those odds crank up

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Speaker 2: pretty quick.

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Speaker 1: You know.

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Speaker 2: We had a customer who at four hundred and seventy

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Speaker 2: five to one shot two wide receivers over one hundred

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Speaker 2: yards receiving yards and both to score a.

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Speaker 1: Touchdown and it cashed.

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Speaker 2: So you're always mindful of You don't just think about

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Speaker 2: the game anymore.

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Speaker 1: You think about every other marketing.

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Speaker 2: We've got over three thousand waste of bet on the

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Speaker 2: Super Bowl, so it's a lot of checking liabilities, and

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Speaker 2: we split it up between us, so we're all over it.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, I mean it's you know, these are seven

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Speaker 2: figure liabilities and growing on these.

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Speaker 3: Sgps, three thousand markers of yeah, how are you making

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Speaker 3: three thousand wast bed? Three thousand waste bed? But still,

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Speaker 3: how are you even calculating? And it's not like you're

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Speaker 3: waiting ten days. You know, it used to be two

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Speaker 3: weeks for the super Bowl. You're waiting ten days to

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Speaker 3: put out the props, right, like long, like going back

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Speaker 3: twenty years.

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Speaker 4: Like people would wait to put out the props.

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Speaker 3: They'd have to print them on sheets, right and then

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Speaker 3: pass out the booklets. The pressure now, because there's so

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Speaker 3: much competition and someone in outs, is for everybody to

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Speaker 3: get their markets up as quickly as possible.

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Speaker 4: You mentioned you've got a war room going on.

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Speaker 3: What does that look like in the first twenty four

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Speaker 3: hours after the super Bowl contestants are decided.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we we try and get one hundred to two

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Speaker 2: hundred markets up the generic that a'm model driven straight

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Speaker 2: as soon as the two competitors are known. Then you

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Speaker 2: start working on the Superstar props, you know, get those out.

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Speaker 1: So's it's a process. We had pretty much.

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Speaker 2: About eighty five percent of the markets pretty much up

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Speaker 2: and out by Wednesday. Then you obviously still print the sheets,

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Speaker 2: they go to the book and then we'll do ad hopping.

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Speaker 2: So like people that reach out on Twitter. So can

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Speaker 2: we have this kind of market if it's allowed, then

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Speaker 2: we'll off for it and we'll price it up, so

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Speaker 2: we're always added.

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Speaker 1: But you know, you've got the.

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Speaker 2: Chunk and then you get lucky. Sometimes we're unlucky because

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Speaker 2: we get the Chiefs again for the second year and

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Speaker 2: Taylor Swift, so we've got those same props. And an

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Speaker 2: interesting fact is with the Taylor Swift.

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Speaker 1: One is we.

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Speaker 2: Offered the nineteen eighty nine prop last year, which is

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Speaker 2: Kelsey to get a touchdown, nine or more receptions eighty

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Speaker 2: nine or more receiving yards.

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Speaker 1: That was four to one last year. It's ten to

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Speaker 1: one this year. It just shows the difference of a

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Speaker 1: season that Kelsey has had. Last year.

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Speaker 2: You know, all I was talking was if Kelsey has

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Speaker 2: a big game, it's bad for the sports books, and

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Speaker 2: it's flipped this year. It's if Barkley has a big game,

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Speaker 2: it's bad for the sports book. But you know, ghost

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Speaker 2: props are still there. You have to go to read

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Speaker 2: price them.

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Speaker 4: Are you getting a lot of action in the Taylor

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Speaker 4: Swift perhaps this year.

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Speaker 2: Always a megastar, and he's probably one of the greatest

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Speaker 2: tight ends of all time when he retires, so there's

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Speaker 2: always interest. I mean, he's fourth or fifth right now

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Speaker 2: on on ticket count as a player across all these wages,

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Speaker 2: it's Berkley, Hurts, Mahomes Kelsey.

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Speaker 3: Okay, and so I think my last question for you

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Speaker 3: is since legalization you just mentioned, it's fascinating to me

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Speaker 3: you'll take markets from people on Twitter asking how much

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Speaker 3: more has sort of your visibility as a trader, as

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Speaker 3: someone who's keeped in book making change your interaction with

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Speaker 3: the public because of the availability of sports betting.

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Speaker 2: It's it's interesting because you always want to interact with

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Speaker 2: the public regardless. I mean, I don't do the social

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Speaker 2: media myself, they'll fire me straight away. But you know,

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Speaker 2: we have the team. The team do a great job

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Speaker 2: of promoting it. We have our own podcast as well,

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Speaker 2: and then we have people interact and then we'll come

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Speaker 2: up with a few ideas. But you know, sometimes trade

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Speaker 2: don't think of every single market going out there, and

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Speaker 2: people might see a different angle or a fun you know,

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Speaker 2: social clip or some viral media that let's tie in

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Speaker 2: and prop that ties into that.

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Speaker 1: So we're always looking to do that.

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Speaker 2: But the challenge with the US is it's very well regulated,

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Speaker 2: so we have to make sure we're compliant. So as

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Speaker 2: much as I would like to offer gatorade color or Kendrick.

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Speaker 1: Lamar's first halftime song.

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Speaker 2: It's a known event, so we stay away from that,

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Speaker 2: and a lot of the states don't allow.

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Speaker 4: That, right.

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Speaker 3: A lot of people don't understand you have to basically

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Speaker 3: bet on something that can be measured on the field.

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Speaker 1: Correct.

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Speaker 3: And so even though there's so many more people coming

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Speaker 3: to sports betting now, there's a lot education about, yeah,

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Speaker 3: we can't really do that, which makes it even more

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Speaker 3: fascinating than you can come up with three thousand different

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Speaker 3: ways to bet the Super Bowl. And one more question,

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Speaker 3: you got to send the daily to your bosses every

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Speaker 3: single day, right, do they get antsy, like are they

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Speaker 3: seeing this?

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Speaker 4: And do they start saying, all right, maybe we can

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Speaker 4: try to find the way.

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Speaker 3: To entaste people to bet more on the other side?

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Speaker 3: Right now, how do they manage that when it's this

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Speaker 3: kind of week.

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Speaker 4: Where it's so intense.

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Speaker 2: I do get that question sometimes, well, why weren't we

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Speaker 2: the Chiefs minus eight and a half nine? And as

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Speaker 2: the season goes on and you see these trends with

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Speaker 2: you know, September was good for the sports books, but

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Speaker 2: then the rest of the season was great for the customers.

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Speaker 2: You make adjustments as you go on, and you know,

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Speaker 2: in the case of the Tennessee Titans, the record against

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Speaker 2: the spread failure to cover, So you're always making an adjustment,

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Speaker 2: and no matter how high you go, sometimes it's just

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Speaker 2: not enough. Favorites and parlays are usually the dangerous, and

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Speaker 2: then straight wages and dogs other things. We're always worried

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Speaker 2: about a straight on a single game. But I have

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Speaker 2: a great executive team above me. They all have their opinion.

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Speaker 2: Were all sport bad teams, so we can all cheer

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Speaker 2: on our team. So one of my execus is a

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Speaker 2: Bears fan and they missed the field goalie and at

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Speaker 2: Green Bay they got blocked, and we're like, you just

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Speaker 2: cost us that much money. So it's a bit fun

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Speaker 2: and games. But yeah, I mean, you're always looking because

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Speaker 2: our sports betting grows and you've got a game with

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Speaker 2: this magnitude. We eclipse a handle record in Nevada last year.

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Speaker 2: We're hoping to eclipse a handle record in Louisiana, which

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Speaker 2: we should because the Super Bowls here are the season

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Speaker 2: super dume. You know, you're always mindful of the liabilities

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Speaker 2: and you always give them a heads up.

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Speaker 1: And then you know, be superstitious and very religious. All right, brother, I.

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Speaker 3: Wish you the best of luck, Craig luckwell, VP Risk

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00:17:24,000 --> 00:17:38,160
Speaker 3: and Trading. Caesar's Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

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Speaker 4: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

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00:17:41,680 --> 00:17:44,320
Speaker 4: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

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Speaker 4: hundred Gambler