Speaker 1: Welcome and everybody to Fantasy Crows. This is the Fantasy
Speaker 1: Baseball Podcast has with Joey Paid jopis a Pia. Today
Speaker 1: we're gonna have some fun. It's time for the All
Speaker 1: Breakout Team for twenty twenty four. The guys we're gonna
Speaker 1: win you, leagues. The guys are gonna carry you to glory.
Speaker 1: And by glory, well I mean maybe some money, maybe
Speaker 1: some I don't know, trophies, or perhaps even an incredible belt,
Speaker 1: which we're gonna be giving away here pretty soon on
Speaker 1: the channel. But before we give away things, I want
Speaker 1: to keep one thing, and it's the Welsh. I always
Speaker 1: want to keep you around because it's fun to have
Speaker 1: you around. Welsh breakouts the definition can be all over
Speaker 1: the place. What's your definition of a breakout player?
Speaker 2: Oh?
Speaker 3: Man, I completely agree with what you're saying. Like the
Speaker 3: line between breakouts and sleepers is a very very thin line,
Speaker 3: Like I'm not really sure where it completes. I mean,
Speaker 3: sleepers kind of lives in a world of a player
Speaker 3: that is being so undervalued. Breakouts are a player that
Speaker 3: is ready to take that next step in value, And
Speaker 3: that's kind of how I view them, you know, even
Speaker 3: looking at my own list, I would say for the
Speaker 3: most part, every single player on here is not seen
Speaker 3: in some like elite tier, and sometimes the jumps might
Speaker 3: not even be I don't know, like insanely exponential. But
Speaker 3: to me, it is about the tier change that ends
Speaker 3: up happening. A guy that you know hits two point
Speaker 3: fifty with twenty something homers can jump into being a
Speaker 3: two seventy thirty plus homerun hitter. That changes the tier
Speaker 3: a player. I have a player that was a twenty
Speaker 3: twenty guy last year, but the average stunk. I think
Speaker 3: this player can improve their batted ball skills this year,
Speaker 3: can improve overall on the batting average and turn that
Speaker 3: twenty twenty into closer to a thirty thirty with a
Speaker 3: better batting average, and that changes the tier. So these
Speaker 3: are definitely players that are on my watch list, on
Speaker 3: my draft list I want on all my teams, But
Speaker 3: there is no O'Neill Cruise. I did not put him
Speaker 3: on this list just out of like you know, sanity
Speaker 3: for everybody, because I put him on everything. I absolutely
Speaker 3: think he is a breakout, but he is I've actually
Speaker 3: defined him more as a sleeper because his value has
Speaker 3: been so low but I did not put him on
Speaker 3: this list, so you guys can all feel okay, we
Speaker 3: will pick a different shortstop and it is the twenty
Speaker 3: twenty guy I spoke about.
Speaker 1: Well for more onneal Cruz content, just watch any other
Speaker 1: video with Welsh that we've recorded. But no, what you
Speaker 1: did stop, I think everybody appreciates that.
Speaker 2: And we're trying to get different names. We're trying to
Speaker 2: throw out some other you guys are gonna hear some names.
Speaker 1: But we're also trying to drive home certain things that
Speaker 1: we think and when we are on something like last
Speaker 1: year we were on Corbyn Carrol, we were on Azzi Albi's.
Speaker 1: A lot of things that we were on were right
Speaker 1: and we kept driving into the ground and we did
Speaker 1: it for a reason because we wanted you to be
Speaker 1: in on them as well. But for me, whilst the
Speaker 1: breakout is a player that's shown you at least the
Speaker 1: piece you know, they haven't quite you know, put it
Speaker 1: over a full season, I think these are the guys
Speaker 1: that are ready to show it to you over a
Speaker 1: full season that can really give you that productivity that
Speaker 1: you're looking for. And again, when you're trying to figure
Speaker 1: out how to approach your drafts. Make sure you go
Speaker 1: over to Fantasypros dot com because the Draft kid is live.
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Speaker 1: to more. We want you to sink all your leagues
Speaker 1: here Fantasy Pros because again that's free. Also, when you
Speaker 1: sink your leagues, no matter how many you have, you
Speaker 1: have ten leagues, two leagues, it doesn't matter. You can
Speaker 1: set all your lineups right from the Fantasy Pros app.
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Speaker 1: Fantasy Baseball championship belt. Only want trophy, smack.
Speaker 3: Want to touch the shiny want to touch the shiny belt.
Speaker 1: Speaking of shiny things, how about this hat that Welsh
Speaker 1: is wearing on the YouTube channel today? What hat is
Speaker 1: this for? What hat? It's staring me down, It's looking
Speaker 1: into my soul? What team is this?
Speaker 3: Did you say what the hat? By the way, did
Speaker 3: you say what the hat is this?
Speaker 2: This is there's a little bit here in it.
Speaker 1: This is the bit is killing on the audio only
Speaker 1: version of the show. I know.
Speaker 3: Anyway, I actually teased this hat that I wasn't sure
Speaker 3: if I would wear it because it might stress people out,
Speaker 3: but I decided today We're going to do it. I'm
Speaker 3: looking into your soul? Who are your brain?
Speaker 1: The future for breakouts? I think it's the very appropriate we.
Speaker 3: Are This is the lake elsinor storm. I believe this
Speaker 3: is one of their alternative hats. Their logo is like
Speaker 3: a storm with eyes on it, and then they have
Speaker 3: this alternative one where it is just eyes that stare
Speaker 3: at you.
Speaker 2: So yeah, this is like the double vision. This is
Speaker 2: like a pseudo.
Speaker 3: Doctor Strange third eye, but it's third and fourth thigh
Speaker 3: looking for the breakout.
Speaker 1: It feels like a Looney Tunes, like a character lurking
Speaker 1: in the dark.
Speaker 2: I could do this funny is going like this.
Speaker 1: No, no, don't do that. Let's not do that, guys.
Speaker 1: Let's get to the breakouts. Let's start a catcher. And
Speaker 1: my guy is somebody we talked about last year and
Speaker 1: we saw a little bit in twenty twenty three, but
Speaker 1: not enough, unfortunately, because Logan o'hapi ended up having some
Speaker 1: injuries that derailed him. But he did flash the power.
Speaker 1: In just fifty one games last year, he had fourteen homers. Yeah,
Speaker 1: the batting average did drag, but we could say that
Speaker 1: about a lot of catchers. When we're trying to draft catchers,
Speaker 1: we're looking for power most of the time. And those
Speaker 1: two catcher leagues right now, this guy is currently going
Speaker 1: as the fourteenth catcher overall ADP of one to ninety six.
Speaker 1: I think, oh Hopy's one of these guys that you
Speaker 1: can wait on catcher, even a fifteen team league snag
Speaker 1: this guy. He could probably match the same productivity or
Speaker 1: close to it that you might get out of a
Speaker 1: Francisco Alvarez was going ahead of him, maybe even a
Speaker 1: Cal Rawley if things really go well for a Hopy.
Speaker 1: But again, the fourteenth catcher overall, I think he's a
Speaker 1: steal and I think he's gonna be one of the
Speaker 1: bright spots for an Angels team that might not have
Speaker 1: a lot of light shining on it. So a Logan
Speaker 1: o'hapi is that guy for me? Welsh, who's the catcher
Speaker 1: that made your all breakout team of twenty twenty four?
Speaker 3: Well, you can have some catchers with good batting average.
Speaker 3: A question is going to be the counting stats and
Speaker 3: where are they going to go? My favorite catcher this
Speaker 3: is a homer play. I believe this is well.
Speaker 2: Now I have two diamondback homers here.
Speaker 3: Gabriel Moreno is my favorite of the catchers to not
Speaker 3: only just draft because he comes in at an overall
Speaker 3: lower cost.
Speaker 2: He's eleventh.
Speaker 3: As far as the ECR goes on catchers one sixty
Speaker 3: six to EIGHTYP, I'll say he can go even go
Speaker 3: later in the ADP gets pushed up a little bit
Speaker 3: by like two catcher NFBC leagues that throw that up,
Speaker 3: so it's even a little bit later. But Gabby Moreno
Speaker 3: in the playoffs absolutely lit it on fire, multiple home
Speaker 3: runs hitting in that three spot. He's an under twenty
Speaker 3: percent strikeout guy. Hit two eighty four this past year.
Speaker 3: He had an expected batting average it was still over
Speaker 3: two sixty. He improved his hard hit numbers. The thing
Speaker 3: he's got to do is get the ball in the air,
Speaker 3: and that's what we see from a lot of young players,
Speaker 3: and this is a pretty hit or friendly environment.
Speaker 1: He's going to be.
Speaker 3: Put in RBI opportunities throughout the year, and this team
Speaker 3: absolutely rallies around him, and the playoffs I think was
Speaker 3: like a really first early sign to realize that they
Speaker 3: are comfortable as can be with this guy being the
Speaker 3: number three hitter because he's a good contact guy.
Speaker 2: So can he improve the launch angle?
Speaker 1: Yes? Will he?
Speaker 3: That's going to be the thing in question. He was
Speaker 3: like a four or five percent launch angle guy based
Speaker 3: on hard hit and barreling. If he can get the
Speaker 3: ball near double digits, he will surpass twenty home runs
Speaker 3: this year. I think the RV I think he is
Speaker 3: going to blow pass all of his projected numbers, and
Speaker 3: that's why I'm so heavily invested.
Speaker 2: Projections in general have him.
Speaker 3: Beating last year's numbers, but there's still I think low
Speaker 3: eleven homers, sixty one RBIs.
Speaker 2: I'll put the check down.
Speaker 3: He is going to beat every single projection from ATC
Speaker 3: or the bat X this year and he is my
Speaker 3: favorite breakout catcher where I think next year we'll be
Speaker 3: looking at him as a top five or six catcher.
Speaker 2: Overall.
Speaker 1: I love him and head to head points leagues too,
Speaker 1: because the contact rate. Even though he might not hit
Speaker 1: fifteen home runs, I'll take the hits, I'll take the
Speaker 1: run score, and I'll take where he's hitting in the
Speaker 1: batting order. Let's take a quick break in the action
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Speaker 1: Fantasy Pros, fan Tracks, the home of fantasy sports. And
Speaker 1: now back to the action. Let's go to first base. Welsh,
Speaker 1: who do you have all right?
Speaker 3: Going out to first base? This is one of my
Speaker 3: absolute favorites. Tristan Cassis with the Boston Red Sox. He
Speaker 3: is the ninth first baseman on the board ninety five overall,
Speaker 3: and Tristan Kassas exemplifies like everything that you're looking out
Speaker 3: of a first basement as far as you like, big
Speaker 3: hard hit metrics, thirteen percent barrel percentage, forty six percent
Speaker 3: hard hit rate. He had expected batting average just about
Speaker 3: within ten batting average points of what he did. High
Speaker 3: launch angle, gets the ball in the air fifteen point
Speaker 3: seven degree and average over ninety one miles per hour
Speaker 3: on his overall hits. So he hits the ball really hard.
Speaker 3: He makes sures he makes sure he barrels. He also
Speaker 3: is putting up a pretty respectable batting average that I
Speaker 3: think has more upside I think for a high walk
Speaker 3: not exceptionally high strikeout guy with these type of batt
Speaker 3: of ball skills, he is going to again I'm picking
Speaker 3: on this again. He's going to surpass what projections have
Speaker 3: him at. They don't have him at thirty. I firmly
Speaker 3: believe he's going to be a thirty home run hitter
Speaker 3: this year. I think he's going to cross the eighty
Speaker 3: run and eighty RBI territory. He's one of my favorite
Speaker 3: third basemen our first baseman, and there are a few
Speaker 3: I don't really like that are a little bit ahead.
Speaker 3: If you can get him at a corner infielder two,
Speaker 3: I'm in Tristan Costa is my breakout first baseman.
Speaker 1: Well, my guy, you can definitely get at corner at
Speaker 1: first base. It's Josh Nayler of the Cleveland Guardians one
Speaker 1: twenty two consensus ADP. Again, you can find that Fantasypros
Speaker 1: dot com. The rank right now is the seventeenth first
Speaker 1: baseman going off the board. And you know Naylor last
Speaker 1: year had to deal with injuries. He only played one
Speaker 1: hundred and twenty one games, but he did seventeen homers
Speaker 1: and he drove in ninety seven runs. He's hitting behind
Speaker 1: Jose Ramirez in that order. He hit three zero eight
Speaker 1: last year. The X batting average was two ninety three.
Speaker 1: The K percentage was thirteen point seven. He is a
Speaker 1: very valuable player, and I think far more valuable than
Speaker 1: the ADP suggests. I remember last year when we had
Speaker 1: Aero conon talking about projections. It was one of his
Speaker 1: favorite players, and he was one hundred percent right. He
Speaker 1: really did perform. But I think there's a breakout coming
Speaker 1: where if this guy can play one hundred and fifty
Speaker 1: games this year just adding the volume alone. Not only
Speaker 1: could he drive in one hundred runs easily, but I
Speaker 1: think you're also looking at a guy that could approach
Speaker 1: twenty five homers. There might even be a thirty homer
Speaker 1: season than there two for him if everything breaks right.
Speaker 1: Steamer hasn't projected for a four to eighty slugging percentage.
Speaker 1: That's what I want to see. But the funny thing
Speaker 1: is you look at all the projections for Naylor. Everything's
Speaker 1: around one hundred and thirty something games, and I just
Speaker 1: think he's going to play more than that this year
Speaker 1: as long as you know, the injury gods are kind
Speaker 1: to us, and Josh Naylor could be a guy that
Speaker 1: absolutely breaks out. And the Cleveland Guardians need that too.
Speaker 1: They need somebody else in that order to really stand
Speaker 1: out besides Ramirez. I think it was a really tough
Speaker 1: season for them offensively as a whole, as a unit,
Speaker 1: and Naylor could be a guy that could really change
Speaker 1: that dynamic for them if he does develop and take
Speaker 1: that next step. And you could say last year was
Speaker 1: the breakout maybe, but again, I think there's another gear
Speaker 1: in this player and I think the ADP is far
Speaker 1: too low Welsh. Do you agree? Yep?
Speaker 2: I love him probably.
Speaker 3: I mean, if I didn't love Costas as much as
Speaker 3: I do, he would have probably been number two as
Speaker 3: far as far as like identifying breakout. So, by the way,
Speaker 3: I don't know if it was last year too, but
Speaker 3: Ariol we talked about Naylor this.
Speaker 2: Year as well.
Speaker 3: Yeah, said, this is one of those guys and when
Speaker 3: you can get batting average from players, I actually don't
Speaker 3: even think Costas and Naylor as a combo is the
Speaker 3: worst thing in the world, because you're gonna get a
Speaker 3: bunch of RBI from Naylor.
Speaker 2: I think Costas is going to score more runs than
Speaker 2: you expect.
Speaker 3: But yeah, I love it, especially if you're hugging batting
Speaker 3: average a little bit more or you're trying to make
Speaker 3: up for it. Naylor is a great piece to put
Speaker 3: in there. He is a home run threat. He makes
Speaker 3: really really good contact, consistent contact, and we saw the
Speaker 3: RBIs kind of fly up last year. We just got
Speaker 3: to make sure that the rest of the pieces around
Speaker 3: him are, you know, in RBI opportunities. But yeah, I
Speaker 3: think Naylor is a fantastic pick here.
Speaker 1: Well, look ninety seven last year and one hundred and
Speaker 1: twenty one games. That's pretty good. I also think, well,
Speaker 1: you know, when you're looking at a guy like Naylor,
Speaker 1: it's also a matter you know, not only his health,
Speaker 1: but also you know, is that player ready to make
Speaker 1: that next step. He's been in the league a little
Speaker 1: while now, I think you know that comfortability factor starts
Speaker 1: to set in where you see these kids start to blossom.
Speaker 1: And I'll tell you this, I'll take an a step further.
Speaker 1: If you're a salary cap league, what a great value
Speaker 1: play he is? Like, you don't want to pay for
Speaker 1: a big first baseman. You know, maybe you get a
Speaker 1: twenty five, one hundred season out of Naylor with a
Speaker 1: two ninety or three hundred batting average, I'd be a
Speaker 1: pretty sweet return on investment. That probably be a lot
Speaker 1: cheaper than going after the top tier first basement. All right,
Speaker 1: for me at second base at two twenty two and
Speaker 1: adp second baseman off of the board, it's Edward Julian
Speaker 1: of the Minnesota Twins. I love this guy. Last year
Speaker 1: he was the player that popped for me in the spring.
Speaker 1: I was very excited about him last year and he
Speaker 1: got called up things didn't go well, got sent down,
Speaker 1: came back and started to show you all the things
Speaker 1: that I was very excited about. And if you go
Speaker 1: back and look at the minor league track record of
Speaker 1: this player, two hundred and sixty three games in the
Speaker 1: minor leagues, right over three seasons, he hit two to
Speaker 1: eighty five with a four to thirty seven OBP, a
Speaker 1: four eighty seven slugging, and a nine to twenty four OPS.
Speaker 1: They moved on from Horey Polanco. They've made room. Julian's
Speaker 1: the guy. Last year, one hundred nine games for the Twins,
Speaker 1: he had sixteen homers, hit two sixty three, but that
Speaker 1: OBP three point eighty one. I'm telling you this guy
Speaker 1: is going to be an on base machine. I love
Speaker 1: him in OBP leagues. I love him in points leagues,
Speaker 1: which is where I prefer to play, but also Welsh.
Speaker 1: I've compared him statistically. I think he's the next Jose Vedro,
Speaker 1: a player that egans just set it and forget it.
Speaker 1: And I think that's gonna be a very valuable thing
Speaker 1: in fantasy and for the Minnesota Twins this year. Who's
Speaker 1: your second base breakout of twenty twenty four?
Speaker 2: I probably would have picked Julian by the way, had
Speaker 2: you not.
Speaker 1: Okay, but let's go.
Speaker 3: I do love me some Nolan Gorman, and this might
Speaker 3: be a case of we have to have like the
Speaker 3: breakout may have already happened, you know how you said
Speaker 3: that when Naylor, You're like, well, the breakout may have
Speaker 3: already kind of been there.
Speaker 2: Gorman and may have kind of been there. He did
Speaker 2: hit twenty seven.
Speaker 1: I think there's a better version of Gorman, just like
Speaker 1: there could be a better version of Nailer two.
Speaker 3: That's right, But he also hit twenty seven homers and
Speaker 3: he barely has an ADP inside the top two hundred.
Speaker 3: He's the sixteenth second baseman, so not a starter in
Speaker 3: fifteen team rod O. It's one eighty two according to
Speaker 3: the consensus ADP that you can find over in Fantasy pros.
Speaker 3: And there's still another gear in here, but that gear
Speaker 3: has to be about the batting average. So he hit
Speaker 3: two thirty six this past year, which was a ten
Speaker 3: point jump from the year before, and the strike cups
Speaker 3: have been an issue consistently. His issue has been higher
Speaker 3: in the zone, and that's what they had had him
Speaker 3: go work with driveline the previous year on and that's
Speaker 3: still kind of a you know, a work in progress.
Speaker 3: He's one of the better low zone hitters in all
Speaker 3: of baseball, and the hard hit numbers spoke for itself.
Speaker 3: I mean, forty eight point five percent hard hit rate,
Speaker 3: one of the better ones in baseball, sixteen and a half.
Speaker 2: Barrel rate that's up there.
Speaker 3: One of the best launch angles over twenty degrees twenty
Speaker 3: two point two, and had an average ninety one EV.
Speaker 3: So you go back to kasas these are kind of
Speaker 3: similar numbers, except the hard hit and launch angle even bigger.
Speaker 3: For Gorman, his expected batting average has been two thirty
Speaker 3: nine or two thirty eight for two straight years. The
Speaker 3: difference is his actual batting average is two thirty six.
Speaker 3: If he can improve higher in the zone just a
Speaker 3: little bit, he can start matching what our higher expected
Speaker 3: stats and he will be one of the bigger values
Speaker 3: post one point fifty thirty plus homers in the middle infield.
Speaker 3: If you can get a two forty batting average would
Speaker 3: be phenomenal. It'll just be will we get that? Every
Speaker 3: projection system says, so we're well atc two thirty nine,
Speaker 3: I should say, but essentially two forty. But you've got
Speaker 3: right in that range. Give me two forty and give
Speaker 3: me thirty plus homers and Nolan Gorman where he can
Speaker 3: be a big breakout this year.
Speaker 1: Love it all right, Let's get to the third base
Speaker 1: side there. Who is at the hot corner to break
Speaker 1: out in twenty twenty four? Welsh?
Speaker 3: All right, for my third baseman, I'm going off script
Speaker 3: a little bit. I'm picking Michael Busch, who and why
Speaker 3: say off script? ADP of four hundred ranked thirty five
Speaker 3: will not actually most likely play that position. And I'm
Speaker 3: throwing out the bigger caveat is Cody Bellinger. Cody Bellinger
Speaker 3: resigning If we had heard that Michael Bush was going
Speaker 3: to be like a primary first baseman. If Bellinger comes
Speaker 3: back and as a primary first baseman, that leaves us
Speaker 3: some questions. If he goes into center field, it opens
Speaker 3: it up. They've also said they have not announced who
Speaker 3: the third basement is going to be. It could be
Speaker 3: morele could be Michael Bush. But the reason I want
Speaker 3: to focus on Michael Busher is he does qualify at
Speaker 3: this position and this team. Given the at bats, He's
Speaker 3: ready to have his breakout season. He's ready to be
Speaker 3: a higher batting average and Nolan Gorman type ATC only
Speaker 3: has ninety one games, but twelve homers, hitting two thirty seven,
Speaker 3: he's gonna hit high. He hit three twenty three in
Speaker 3: Triple A this past year, obviously a friendlier ballpark in
Speaker 3: the PCL, but he had an under twenty percent strikeout percentage,
Speaker 3: K percentage eighteen point eight, a high walk percentage, and
Speaker 3: he hit twenty seven homers in Triple A alone. If
Speaker 3: he's given the opportunity in a friendly ballpark in Chicago,
Speaker 3: he will hit over twenty homers. He is absolutely free.
Speaker 3: But the question is is does a playing time get
Speaker 3: decimated by Cody Bellinger. There's probably a lot of players
Speaker 3: we could have picked here. This has been someone I
Speaker 3: have been picking up in drafts. He's now cheaper than
Speaker 3: ever because of Bellinger. But if he does lock down
Speaker 3: that spot, be it at DH, be it at first,
Speaker 3: be it at third, be it at all of it,
Speaker 3: and he gets regular at bats, he's gonna hit over
Speaker 3: two fifty and he's gonna hit over twenty homers. It'll
Speaker 3: be a breakout for Michael Bush.
Speaker 1: I feel like Morell's gonna get that first crack at bats.
Speaker 1: That's just how I feel about it.
Speaker 3: But that's gonna be The thing is where are they?
Speaker 3: Are they comfortable moving players? I think Bellinger might play
Speaker 3: between center and first base. Pete Kraarmstrong is a big
Speaker 3: kind of key to this as well, if they move
Speaker 3: these pieces around in Michael Busch, Michael Busch just it
Speaker 3: doesn't matter the position. He needs the regular playing time
Speaker 3: and if that happens, he is going to break out.
Speaker 3: If not, egg on my face, this one will not work,
Speaker 3: all right.
Speaker 1: Noelve, Marte is that guy for me at third base
Speaker 1: one to eighty five ADP, the nineteen third baseman going
Speaker 1: off the board. Marte did get a small sample size
Speaker 1: with the Reds last year, thirty five games, but my
Speaker 1: goodness was a good three to six team batting average
Speaker 1: three sixty six OBP of four to fifty six slugging.
Speaker 1: He's got power, he's got speed. You look at the
Speaker 1: minor league track record again. He's just turning twenty two
Speaker 1: this year, but the minor league track record is good.
Speaker 1: A two eighty two slash with three sixty seven, four
Speaker 1: sixty seven, eight thirty three ops. These are all the
Speaker 1: things you're looking for. He's got power, he's got speed.
Speaker 1: He has got the profile. We've been waiting for this
Speaker 1: kid a long time. The first time I saw him Welsh,
Speaker 1: I want to say, the first time I saw him
Speaker 1: was in twenty twenty one play and he was in
Speaker 1: the Seattle organization still and I it was very impressed
Speaker 1: by this kid, and I thought, this guy is going
Speaker 1: to certainly skyrocket through. And then obviously the change of
Speaker 1: scenery there in that big tray with Luis Castillo brought
Speaker 1: him over to Cincinnati. But Cincinnati, there's a lot of
Speaker 1: reasons to be excited. It's a young team. There's gonna
Speaker 1: be growing pains. But I think Marte's skill set, with
Speaker 1: the pop and the speed and the ballpark factor he's
Speaker 1: gonna be playing in I think it's enough for him
Speaker 1: to break out. I think it's enough for him to
Speaker 1: be the everyday starter at third, and I think it's
Speaker 1: enough for him to translate not everything that he did
Speaker 1: last year in those thirty five games in the small sample,
Speaker 1: but enough of it that I think he's going to
Speaker 1: be a huge value with that return on investment. Now,
Speaker 1: when it comes to shortstop, I went back and forth
Speaker 1: on this one. I've been really I don't know about
Speaker 1: you but I've been drinking the Michael Garcia kool aid.
Speaker 1: But at the end of the day, I had to
Speaker 1: go with my boy, Junior Caminaro instead. Now he qualifies
Speaker 1: it short, qualifies a third in most of your leagues.
Speaker 1: But Kamonaro, to me, we just talked about the goods.
Speaker 1: He's the goods. Hits the ball the opposite field with power,
Speaker 1: makes great contact. I don't think there's anything left for
Speaker 1: him to really prove. I know he is to kid,
Speaker 1: I know it's another young player, and it feels like
Speaker 1: I'm talking dynasty here, but at the same time, well,
Speaker 1: it's hard not to get excited about this player. Jose
Speaker 1: Cabalio is the only thing standing in his way, and
Speaker 1: I just don't think it's enough. I think there's a
Speaker 1: big giant gap in the middle of that order without
Speaker 1: Wander Franco. And you're looking at a guy last year
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty three that combined in single A or
Speaker 1: should say high he in double A thirty one homers,
Speaker 1: ninety four RBI hit three twenty four with an nine
Speaker 1: to seventy six ops. There's very little for this kid
Speaker 1: to learn. I think he will get his fifty to
Speaker 1: seventy five, maybe even one hundred at bats at Triple A.
Speaker 1: I don't think it's gonna take that long. I think
Speaker 1: by Memorial Day this kid is up. If not May first,
Speaker 1: he's up. And I think cam Naro is going to
Speaker 1: take this league by storm. He's going to be a
Speaker 1: tremendous player from the jump, and he's a guy that
Speaker 1: I want to invest in very much. Now you're the
Speaker 1: prospect guy. Do you think I'm being too excited about
Speaker 1: kem Naro's twenty twenty four impact?
Speaker 3: No, I mean I'll throw out a couple of things.
Speaker 3: He's not gonna play shortstop at all, So I would say, well,
Speaker 3: I just want to point I don't.
Speaker 1: Think he would if they really want to get the
Speaker 1: bat in there, Like if they really want the log
Speaker 1: jam him in there, he could.
Speaker 3: The flexibility is yeah, the flexibility is there if if
Speaker 3: he were there and they want because here's the deal, Yeah,
Speaker 3: Yandy or Estoc Pardes, they could be the problem at third.
Speaker 3: But you know, if Praidies moves to DH, they could
Speaker 3: have Yandi at first. Camon Arrow made it like a
Speaker 3: really great defensive play in spring, like he's a good
Speaker 3: defender there. Amedrozario's kind of popping at shortstop. Caman Arroo
Speaker 3: would actually provide them flexibility because he can play corner
Speaker 3: and in that middle.
Speaker 1: All of that.
Speaker 3: Aside, I agree with that. I don't think this could
Speaker 3: be more than fIF I think by May first, if
Speaker 3: he's not up, I would be absolutely shocked because this
Speaker 3: guy's ready. He's defensively been playing solid. I talked with
Speaker 3: Carson Williams, his prospect teammate, who you know is a
Speaker 3: defensive wizard, and he said, how close him and camon
Speaker 3: Arow are working defensively. His bat is absolutely live. I
Speaker 3: don't technically, I don't pick like prospects for this. I mean,
Speaker 3: if I would, I would have probably done Holiday and
Speaker 3: I would have done cakemon Arrow.
Speaker 2: Because I agree with you, I want to draft him.
Speaker 3: He's a guy that I guess for all intensive purposes
Speaker 3: he's going to break out because he's going to be
Speaker 3: given an off oportunity. And I think he is a
Speaker 3: smoke and steel after two hundred because you get him
Speaker 3: as a.
Speaker 1: Bench of projections, Welsh, I see they have Aranda as
Speaker 1: d H Paritis a third and Diaz at first. Do
Speaker 1: you think I mean again, I I'm looking around and
Speaker 1: I think that Cameron Aro is a piece that you
Speaker 1: can't stunt the growth of for any of those guys.
Speaker 1: As good as Diaz was last year, in Paridis was
Speaker 1: last year at times too.
Speaker 3: I agree that the Randa thing is interesting because it's
Speaker 3: like that's like that stubborn, like what do we have
Speaker 3: out of this guy?
Speaker 2: You know, do we want? We need to see what
Speaker 2: we like?
Speaker 3: That presses that. But there were Estock Parides trade rumors
Speaker 3: in the offseason. I would still say there's an opportunity.
Speaker 3: If this team is committed to cam and Aro, you
Speaker 3: could see a player like Esock Pradies just get moved
Speaker 3: before camps are, before camp's end, in the season starts.
Speaker 2: But that's why you want to make the bet.
Speaker 3: I don't think Jonathan Ronda is enough to hold back
Speaker 3: camon Aro. I don't think, you know, finding the spots
Speaker 3: for Estock Praides is enough to stunt them not bringing
Speaker 3: him up. And the Rays really should consider if if
Speaker 3: they can find a way to make this happen, get
Speaker 3: you have potential extra pit compensation. If he were to
Speaker 3: start from day one, he legitimately could win Rookie of
Speaker 3: the Year and that is more player pool money in
Speaker 3: the draft. So I don't think the team should be dismissive,
Speaker 3: and I don't think we should be dismissive because of
Speaker 3: some of the early words. Sometimes got to motivate these guys,
Speaker 3: make them show you that they deserve to be the guy,
Speaker 3: and I think Kemano has been doing that in spring.
Speaker 1: I would keep an eye on lineups towards the end
Speaker 1: of spring too, because if Michael Garcia of the Royals
Speaker 1: starts hitting, I don't know one, I don't know. They
Speaker 1: decided to MJ. Melendez is not the leadoff guy or
Speaker 1: whatever they and they lengthened that lineup a different way.
Speaker 1: That would also be a guy. And the guy that
Speaker 1: you're going to talk about, Anthony Volpi, is a player
Speaker 1: that I've seen play in person many times here in
Speaker 1: New Jersey where he played for the Somerset Patriots, and
Speaker 1: I was surprised he didn't hit the ground running last year.
Speaker 1: But I think, just like you, he is ready to
Speaker 1: do that in twenty twenty four and break out.
Speaker 2: Yeah, And that's what I talked about at the top.
Speaker 3: I mean, this is we're talking about a guy that
Speaker 3: went twenty twenty and we're like, hey, he's going to
Speaker 3: break out. And it's like, well, how does that happen? Well,
Speaker 3: it's because the guy hit two oh nine.
Speaker 2: Hit two oh nine.
Speaker 1: Last year.
Speaker 3: He had two oh nine while not even having a
Speaker 3: thirty percent strikeout rate, which that's kind of wild in general.
Speaker 2: Here's a semi positive not that there's a lot of
Speaker 2: plate appearances to it.
Speaker 3: But so far in spring training he has a ten
Speaker 3: percent strikeout rate, so that has been exceptionally low. He's
Speaker 3: hitting over three point fifty. I've seen him in the minors. Now,
Speaker 3: he did this in those early stages of his career,
Speaker 3: but then he kind of he really had like a
Speaker 3: high push advancement. I mean, you know, he's twenty two
Speaker 3: year old making it to the majors. But you know
Speaker 3: he had like a rookie season where he hit two
Speaker 3: fifteen and then he bounced back at three oh two.
Speaker 3: You know, he has found ways to bounce back to
Speaker 3: his batting average. But the problem is he may not
Speaker 3: be more than a.
Speaker 2: Two to fifty guy. What he's not is a two
Speaker 2: oh nine player. He hit two oh nine. This is
Speaker 2: similar to Ellie de la Cruz.
Speaker 3: I want to point out Ellie de la Cruz the
Speaker 3: last you know, whatever, it was I'm trying to mat
Speaker 3: I think it was the second half of the season.
Speaker 3: He hit like two oh three and still stole like
Speaker 3: eighteen bases or something like that while hitting two oh three.
Speaker 3: My point is Anthony Volpi hit twenty one homer still
Speaker 3: twenty four bases while hitting two to oh nine in
Speaker 3: a Yankees lineup. The upside is there. So expected batting
Speaker 3: average was in the two thirties. I think you can
Speaker 3: cut the strikeout percentage. We know he can steal. He
Speaker 3: is a legit thirty thirty option. He gets the ball
Speaker 3: in the air almost ten percent, barrel rate, over forty
Speaker 3: percent hard hit. All of those things we like. It
Speaker 3: is just about pitchment. He hit fastballs pretty well. It's
Speaker 3: about hitting off speed stuff and doing it consistently. And
Speaker 3: he has shown that in the miners before. I think
Speaker 3: he can do it. He can hit two thirty or
Speaker 3: two forty absolute breakout campaign and we're going to be
Speaker 3: figuring out what do we do with this guy that
Speaker 3: hit thirty thirty but has a lower than two to
Speaker 3: fifty batting average. He's gonna teeter between a third and
Speaker 3: like a you know, fifth round pick somewhere in there.
Speaker 3: I think Anthony Volpi is going to break out, and
Speaker 3: he did it while kind of stinking in his first year,
Speaker 3: so improvement even better break him out.
Speaker 1: I gotta say too. I'd love to see him get
Speaker 1: moved up in the order too, because I think that's
Speaker 1: a p Also, he's hitting an eighth spot right now.
Speaker 1: I know Lemayhews at the top of this order, and
Speaker 1: you know he's got to get hot in order to
Speaker 1: justify and move up. But if he gets moved up,
Speaker 1: he's gonna see so much better opportunities in terms of
Speaker 1: guys having to pitch to him. Because we have Soto
Speaker 1: and Judge behind you, you got to pitch to Anthony Volpi,
Speaker 1: and I think that would go a long way to
Speaker 1: his development. I wish the Yankees would take that leap
Speaker 1: of faith, but it doesn't seem like, at least in
Speaker 1: the beginning of the year. That's something I want to do.
Speaker 3: One good thing, though, is if he is hitting nine,
Speaker 3: this is one of those like top ten teams where
Speaker 3: you're like, if you can hit nine and you've got
Speaker 3: Judge and Soto kind of right behind you, the run
Speaker 3: opportunities might present themselves in a pretty positive way.
Speaker 2: He's got it, not press. But I mean again, he.
Speaker 1: Is that guy. Though he is a grinder, he's a
Speaker 1: very hard nosed player, and I think last year he
Speaker 1: just pressed too hard, you know. I think that was
Speaker 1: a big problem.
Speaker 3: Also a little bit, I forgot to mention a two
Speaker 3: point fifty babbitt. That's that's an incredibly low babbitt. That
Speaker 3: that is an easy book, an identifier of positive aggression
Speaker 3: that has to come up. And that's a lot of
Speaker 3: what plays into the batting average. Coming up two thirty
Speaker 3: seems like very reasonable and that's not super exciting. But
Speaker 3: if we get to two forty two to fifty, Anthony
Speaker 3: Volpi will be a problem.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, uh in a good way.
Speaker 2: By the way, for these people on all the good ways.
Speaker 1: Let's talk about the outfielders. Welsh, who did you pick
Speaker 1: for your all breakout team of twenty four?
Speaker 3: All right, I've definitely talked about these guys. My two
Speaker 3: big breakouts. Number one Riley Green with the Detroit Tigers,
Speaker 3: who hit two eighty eight and only ninety nine games,
Speaker 3: eleven homer, seven stolen bases.
Speaker 2: Last year.
Speaker 3: He improved what did he improve? Launch angle, barrel percentage,
Speaker 3: hard hit percentage, All of those improved really good, hard
Speaker 3: hit forty six percent, double digit barrel Those are kind
Speaker 3: of key metrics that I'm looking for, especially for players
Speaker 3: that have, you know, exceptional skills and how can they
Speaker 3: continue to improve. There you go, he's gonna barrel up
Speaker 3: the ball. He's gonna hit it hard. That's gonna do
Speaker 3: good things for you. His expected batting average was too
Speaker 3: eighty seven. He hit two eighty eight. We know he's
Speaker 3: gonna hit for high batting average. He had an almost
Speaker 3: one fifteen max EV. So it all maintains that he
Speaker 3: can hit the ball hard, and he does it on
Speaker 3: a high at batting average, and you know what, that
Speaker 3: usually equates to really great offensive results. The ballpark isn't
Speaker 3: the best, but I do think that Riley Green can
Speaker 3: push twenty five homers this year. I think he can
Speaker 3: steal double digit bases, none of which are projected, but
Speaker 3: projections are all over on games played. If he stays healthy,
Speaker 3: I think he will be a force in that lineup.
Speaker 3: And he is a smoking deal at one sixty three
Speaker 3: and the thirty first outfielder.
Speaker 2: My other one.
Speaker 3: We actually said a little scare the other day. He's
Speaker 3: another one of my favorite late targets. He's going off
Speaker 3: at two hundred and the forty fourth outfielder according to
Speaker 3: the average ECR. It's Jaren Duran who had twenty four
Speaker 3: stolen bases last year. He had a high batting average,
Speaker 3: hitting two ninety five. His expected batting average is almost
Speaker 3: two seventy. Again, those those metrics, we're looking for forty
Speaker 3: five percent hard hit rate. That's huge double digit number
Speaker 3: on the launch angle over ten percent.
Speaker 1: He improved.
Speaker 3: He didn't improve year over year, he improved over his
Speaker 3: rookie rookie year. Barrel percentage is still a little bit
Speaker 3: too low, but his expected numbers are for the most part,
Speaker 3: in line across the board. And here's the big thing.
Speaker 3: I think he's going to steal like crazy this year
Speaker 3: if he stays healthy. What did he have He had
Speaker 3: twenty four stolen bases in one hundred games. I think
Speaker 3: he's going to push forty this year. He has a
Speaker 3: chance to hit high in the lineup, and those hard
Speaker 3: hit numbers give him a really good baseline. Jaron Durant
Speaker 3: at two hundred is lol. Overall, he is a fourth
Speaker 3: to fifth outfielder on every single team. And you know
Speaker 3: we're talking about Nico Horner who hits for a high
Speaker 3: batting average and steals forty bases. Jaron Duran might put
Speaker 3: up Nico Horner's numbers in the outfield and go one
Speaker 3: hundred and fifty spots later. So gim me Jared Duran,
Speaker 3: he's gonna breakout.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a huge difference there, all right, looking on
Speaker 1: to the outfield for me, Jordan Walker, post hype, sleeper,
Speaker 1: perfect opportunity one twenty four. Overall the thirtieth outfit are
Speaker 1: going off the board, Jordan Walker. When you look at
Speaker 1: the minor league numbers, I mean they're elite A three
Speaker 1: ZHO one three eighty three five ten slash and eight
Speaker 1: ninety two ops. Last year, you know, some ups and downs,
Speaker 1: got sent down one point two, but over one hundred
Speaker 1: and seventeen games he did it. Sixteen homers, hit two
Speaker 1: seventy six. He held his own. A lot of the
Speaker 1: problem too, was on the road, where his OPS was
Speaker 1: one hundred points lower on the road as opposed to
Speaker 1: at home. I'm home cooking. Things were good for him
Speaker 1: when he went out, not so good away. So he
Speaker 1: became a guy that he really had to manage a
Speaker 1: little bit more in terms of Yeah, daily transactions or
Speaker 1: weekly lineups. He had to really account for the schedule
Speaker 1: when it came to Walker if you were paying attention
Speaker 1: on how to utilize him. But I've comped this player
Speaker 1: to Jermaine Die before. To me, that's the kind of
Speaker 1: hitter he is, and Jermaine Die was a very useful
Speaker 1: piece for a long time. I think this guy post hype.
Speaker 1: I know last year you are very much a Jordan
Speaker 1: Walker guy. I don't feel like I've heard you talk
Speaker 1: about Jordan Walker once this year, so I want to
Speaker 1: talk about him. But before I do, the other guy
Speaker 1: that I have is jex Centchurio, who I know you're
Speaker 1: excited about too. There is another dude where Look, when
Speaker 1: you give a twenty year old kid an enormous extension,
Speaker 1: he's going to play and he's gonna play every day.
Speaker 1: He's a good defender. He is the deal when it
Speaker 1: comes to power, when it comes to speed, when it
Speaker 1: comes to all of those intangible qualities. We are in
Speaker 1: a embarrassment of riches right now when it comes to
Speaker 1: this young talent that's being filled through the major leagues,
Speaker 1: and it's stunning to think that they're getting there at
Speaker 1: twenty twenty one, twenty two years old, and they're making
Speaker 1: an impact. I think Churio is just that next guy
Speaker 1: to make an impact. It's a good ballpark factor for him.
Speaker 1: He's got some lineup protection now that Hoskins is there
Speaker 1: with Yelich, so there's some pieces. Contraras is there too,
Speaker 1: so they've got some pieces around him. It doesn't have
Speaker 1: to carry the offense. We'll see where he ends up
Speaker 1: hitting in the batting order. That could have something to
Speaker 1: do with it too, how far that breakout could be.
Speaker 1: But again, I know I've got a couple of rookies
Speaker 1: on this list, but I think these guys are not
Speaker 1: just your average rookies. I think this is going to
Speaker 1: be a very special year of rookies. Remember back in
Speaker 1: the day, boys and girls, when you had your tops
Speaker 1: traded nineteen eighty six and you look. Did all the
Speaker 1: rookies in that class? I know Welsh doesn't because.
Speaker 2: I put three years old, I don't remember that.
Speaker 1: I remember it. It was Barry Bonds, and it was
Speaker 1: Will Clark, and it was all these bo Jackson was
Speaker 1: all these guys. It was a historic rookie class. Barry Bonds,
Speaker 1: Bobby Benia, all those guys were in there that to
Speaker 1: me could be this rookie class in twenty twenty four
Speaker 1: is a special group. Welsh. So Jordan Walker, how come
Speaker 1: no Jordan Walker noise for no I'm in.
Speaker 2: I know there hasn't been a lot.
Speaker 3: Well, one of the things I thought was super interesting
Speaker 3: was Mason Wynn confirmed that Jordan Walker had gained twenty
Speaker 3: pounds of muscle in the off season and that those
Speaker 3: are you want that from a guy like that already
Speaker 3: explosive batspeed. I remember he was here and there as
Speaker 3: in a fall league, and my son got to meet
Speaker 3: him and take a picture with him, and he was
Speaker 3: in just pure awe of the size of Jordan Mark
Speaker 3: because you know, I'm a big dude. We were just
Speaker 3: hanging out together. You know how Jordan Walker like looks
Speaker 3: down on me. And for a guy to get even
Speaker 3: bigger with explosive batspeed, I'm all in.
Speaker 2: I am in.
Speaker 3: I guess I haven't really like signaled him as this guy,
Speaker 3: but I'm drafting. I'm trying to draft him where I can.
Speaker 2: I've got him.
Speaker 3: I think inside the top one hundred. Think he might
Speaker 3: have even worked with some drive line this year. I
Speaker 3: think it's fantastic physically, he has all the elements to
Speaker 3: just be a superstar, and I love the idea of
Speaker 3: the added muscle to get the ball in the air
Speaker 3: a little bit more, and he was making really good contact.
Speaker 2: I love him and I love Cheerio.
Speaker 3: I tweeted out that picture from before we went on
Speaker 3: our trip, so like a week and a half ago,
Speaker 3: when I was at Brewers Camp that I thought it
Speaker 3: was interesting that Cheerio was working exclusively with Christian Yelich
Speaker 3: and Garrett Mitchell South Frilic in that same session. The
Speaker 3: entire day was on a backfield working at third base.
Speaker 3: I really think Pat Murphy has made the decision that
Speaker 3: Frillic is gonna be a third base slash super utail guy,
Speaker 3: and they are putting Cheerio in that lineup. That's how
Speaker 3: they have treated him his whole time. The question would
Speaker 3: be did they fall in love with Joey Weimer. I
Speaker 3: don't think so. I think Weimer and Garrett Mitchell can
Speaker 3: kind of play up platoon, Cheerio can do it, and
Speaker 3: south Frillick kind of comes off there. So I am
Speaker 3: resigned to Cheerio making this roster and that's why I
Speaker 3: ranked him like right inside the top one hundred, and
Speaker 3: that might be even a little bit low. I will say,
Speaker 3: though he struggled kind of most of camp and then
Speaker 3: just had like a big day just the other day
Speaker 3: and improved his batting average to three hundred. But I'm
Speaker 3: with you on both of these players, and I think
Speaker 3: I do think Cheerio is gonna break camp with the team,
Speaker 3: and I think that it isn't a kind of an
Speaker 3: exceptional group of prospects. We might look back when we go,
Speaker 3: holy crap, we had Carter and Langford and Holiday and
Speaker 3: Cam and Era, and we're gonna be blown away by
Speaker 3: the results.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean just those guys alone, not to mention
Speaker 1: if any of the other guys that were not, you know,
Speaker 1: the guys in the peripheral of that, you know, prospect
Speaker 1: top twenty, they might make him in Heston Kuerstad could
Speaker 1: come up and make a big impact with the power
Speaker 1: that he has. I mean, it's just.
Speaker 2: We could still see schemes.
Speaker 1: I mean it really, I'm telling everybody, twenty twenty four
Speaker 1: might be the year of the rookie. Again. This is
Speaker 1: a special group here. If they can get enough activity
Speaker 1: at the major league level, let's get to the pitchers here, Welsh, Uh,
Speaker 1: probably no surprise of the guys. We're going to pick
Speaker 1: one of them. We have both selected. So let's talk
Speaker 1: about Michael King, and let's talk about your second selection too.
Speaker 3: Yeah, no chance, because I saw you put Michael King
Speaker 3: on here. No chance I wasn't not putting them on here.
Speaker 1: We are.
Speaker 3: We're going hand in hand again into the sunset of
Speaker 3: picks because I am I think still currently the highest
Speaker 3: ranker on Fantasy Pros on Michael King two two three
Speaker 3: era as a starter had an over thirty one percent
Speaker 3: k percentage as a starter.
Speaker 2: I love his pitch mix.
Speaker 3: I've kind of found similarities in Pablo Lopez overall. Obviously,
Speaker 3: you know it's used a little bit differently, but I
Speaker 3: love the sinker, sweeper fastball overall mix a change up
Speaker 3: with actually the number one whift pitch. And I'm pretty
Speaker 3: optimistic that this team is not going to press down
Speaker 3: on his inning. So, I mean, he was great as
Speaker 3: a starter last year. You're going into a pitcher friendly
Speaker 3: ballpark with good runs. You've got superstars, you've got Machado,
Speaker 3: you've got Tatis, you've got a pretty good defensive infield
Speaker 3: as well. You know, getting Tatis out of there committing
Speaker 3: to Kim. I like who they are defensively, I think
Speaker 3: Michael King. Let's see Michael King projections I think have
Speaker 3: been like around one hundred and thirty. I think he
Speaker 3: can push one hundred and sixty. They're going to depend
Speaker 3: on this guy. And he had two pitches of a
Speaker 3: thirty nine or higher fifth percentage and he was a
Speaker 3: phenomenal starter.
Speaker 2: Low walk rate too.
Speaker 3: He lowered his walk rate as a starter, So I
Speaker 3: mean the K minus walk percentage one of the better
Speaker 3: in the league. I think Michael King he is the
Speaker 3: epitome of the player that is ready for a breakout
Speaker 3: because he doesn't fit that mold for a lot of people,
Speaker 3: and he will be put into the starter role and
Speaker 3: from a value perspective, one forty eight ADP forty fourth
Speaker 3: starting pitcher. Overall, he's one of my favorites. And I
Speaker 3: know you, you've you and me are on the Michael
Speaker 3: King bandwagon.
Speaker 1: Yeah. When I wrote up all the pictures for the
Speaker 1: Black Book this year on Amazon, I gotta tell you, like,
Speaker 1: I just felt like, you know, King was that standout guy.
Speaker 1: You look at all the numbers when you're looking at
Speaker 1: a trend, line for a pitcher. Everything's going in the
Speaker 1: right direction. Michael King was not some schlub prospect too.
Speaker 1: He was a big time prospect in the Yankee organization. Again,
Speaker 1: it was it's always hard for these Yankee guys some
Speaker 1: time to break into the rotation because there's so many
Speaker 1: expectations that are there. And I think it's always commendable
Speaker 1: when you have a guy that goes and just says, Okay,
Speaker 1: well I'm gonna convert into reliever here and help the
Speaker 1: team and be there. And we've seen guys flourish in
Speaker 1: that role and become really good starting pitchers. Again, I've
Speaker 1: brought up a few guys, but Johan Santana is the
Speaker 1: one for me that always stands out of the last
Speaker 1: of that ilk. But that used to be the way
Speaker 1: guys broke into rotations. They used to be the kind
Speaker 1: of you know, you'd have to do your time in
Speaker 1: the bullpen and then you got your chance to be
Speaker 1: a starting pitcher. And I think Michael King is just
Speaker 1: locked and loaded, ready to go. He might be the
Speaker 1: best San Diego Padre pitcher on the board in terms
Speaker 1: of value, Like I don't even know if that's debatable
Speaker 1: at this point. Potentially the other guy for you is
Speaker 1: a Homer pick. So let's talk about Brandon Fought.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Brandon Fotch is too good of a deal. I
Speaker 3: can't get over that. He's a two to eleven on
Speaker 3: ADP the fifty seventh starting pitcher. I think he legit
Speaker 3: can be a top thirty, top thirty five guy.
Speaker 2: Here's an interesting thing.
Speaker 3: From September on, he had an over ten k per
Speaker 3: nine with pending the miney and I'm including the playoffs
Speaker 3: by the way, So September on with the playoffs because
Speaker 3: it went to the World Series, he had a two
Speaker 3: or under walk per nine to go with that ten
Speaker 3: k per nine. This was when he chanted, when Strom
Speaker 3: had him move on the mound and then he was
Speaker 3: going sinker fastball, sweeper with a little bit of change up.
Speaker 3: But that over ten k per nine with two or
Speaker 3: lower walk per nine. Of qualified pitchers, there were only
Speaker 3: like six pitchers that did that that last season. And
Speaker 3: they're all like amazing pitchers. By they're all the name Luis,
Speaker 3: Castillo and Strider. You know, they're all the best names.
Speaker 3: So my idea is, this is a guy that won
Speaker 3: one hundred and eighty innings in the minor leagues. The
Speaker 3: year before he found his improvement, he was phenomenal. Era
Speaker 3: was into the low threes. He had over ten k
Speaker 3: per nine September on into the playoffs, the most important time,
Speaker 3: he stopped walking guys.
Speaker 2: He's a home.
Speaker 3: Run problem, but he's going to get all the innings
Speaker 3: he can on a great defensive team with offensive support.
Speaker 3: He is one of their top counted pitchers and he's
Speaker 3: going to probably be in that number four spot. I
Speaker 3: think Brandon Fought is just a crazy, big steal. The
Speaker 3: breakout's going to happen, and we're going to be talking
Speaker 3: about him in that same third you know, in that
Speaker 3: thirty range of pictures, he's gonna change multiple tiers up
Speaker 3: and we're gonna laugh. I think we're going to laugh
Speaker 3: at him being like almost sixtieth.
Speaker 2: Overall on starting pitchers.
Speaker 3: So I know it's a homer. I had him last
Speaker 3: year and it was kind of egg on my face
Speaker 3: for a bit. I'm hopeful that that's going to change,
Speaker 3: and I think the changes that they did with him
Speaker 3: September on through the World Series is a proof that
Speaker 3: this guy can be in the upper echelon of fantasy pitchers.
Speaker 1: Now for me. The other guy's Bailey Ober at forty
Speaker 1: five overall in terms of the pitchers, one fifty six
Speaker 1: in adp Ober to me, really starting to settle in
Speaker 1: nicely last year, very strong season for Bailey Ober and
Speaker 1: you know, you start to look around, he said, Okay,
Speaker 1: the ERI was three forty three, but the XCRI was
Speaker 1: three six three, so not that far off. I just
Speaker 1: feel like that Minnesota Twins rotation is loaded. I think
Speaker 1: it's a great thing. Whenever you have young pitchers, they
Speaker 1: can let him just kind of fly on their own.
Speaker 1: They don't have to do too much, they don't have
Speaker 1: to worry about being at the top of this rotation.
Speaker 1: Pablo Lopez is that guy already, he has that gig.
Speaker 1: Joe Ryan gets a lot of publicity, as he should.
Speaker 1: But Bailey Over is a guy that I think is
Speaker 1: kind of floating around right now, and I think, just
Speaker 1: like Michael King, ironically, they're kind of going back to back.
Speaker 1: It just feels like a no brainer pick to me
Speaker 1: because it's upside with the win potential. Last year, one
Speaker 1: hundred and forty four in things, one hundred and forty
Speaker 1: six strikeouts, just twenty nine walks. The walk rate is minuscule.
Speaker 1: If you keep the walks down, the hits low, you're
Speaker 1: going to have success. The whip was at one point
Speaker 1: oh seven last year, again one forty four in the
Speaker 1: inning soda last year, he could easily get up to
Speaker 1: one seventy five. That's huge. I think the win potential
Speaker 1: is there for him too. Love the bullpen as well,
Speaker 1: at the back end of this bullpen for the twins,
Speaker 1: so I think there's a lot to like when it
Speaker 1: comes to Bailey over If he does make thirty starts
Speaker 1: this year, he's going to destroy the return on investment,
Speaker 1: just absolutely obliterate it. Love the guy and speaking of
Speaker 1: a bullpen and back ends of closer situations Andres Munos,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go back to the well again. Welsh knows.
Speaker 1: I love this guy. Last year I talked about him
Speaker 1: so much, and then last year start off with the injuries.
Speaker 1: Eventually things did clear out, Seawald moved on and Munios
Speaker 1: moved in. He is at one twelve overall, the thirteenth
Speaker 1: closer going off the board. But this guy has the
Speaker 1: fastball velocity. He's got the stuff to become a dominant closer.
Speaker 1: So I think he's ready this year with a healthy offseason,
Speaker 1: a healthy spring to really hit the ground running and
Speaker 1: become the guy that I thought he was going to
Speaker 1: be last year. So just kind of like Jordan Walker
Speaker 1: Andres Munio. Sometimes we're a year early on a guy,
Speaker 1: and I feel like I'm a year early on Munios,
Speaker 1: a year early on Walker, but and then on Edward
Speaker 1: Julian too, So I'm buying back into a lot of
Speaker 1: these players. But I think twenty twenty four is gonna
Speaker 1: be the breakout for those guys who's your reliever that
Speaker 1: you're high on, that you think can breakout in twenty
Speaker 1: twenty four.
Speaker 3: By the way, I like that Munyo's one. I was
Speaker 3: huge on him last year. I was worried about Brash
Speaker 3: taking over that job, but then Brash had this injury
Speaker 3: that probably is going to just allow Munya to run
Speaker 3: with it, So I love that. And they got rid
Speaker 3: of pre Lander Barrow, who they traded to the White Sox,
Speaker 3: so it's like all the options to take away from
Speaker 3: Munnos are just kind of fading. So that's a great
Speaker 3: one mine kind of simplistic into my bus territory. I
Speaker 3: come to the breakouts and I'm gonna pick Evan Phillips,
Speaker 3: who is the fifteenth closer going or if I'm sorry,
Speaker 3: fourteenth closer going off the board ADP One thirteen, whatever,
Speaker 3: But give me a Dodgers closer.
Speaker 2: Give me a Dodgers closer that they trust.
Speaker 3: We have seen more confidence come out of camp from
Speaker 3: Dave Roberts about Evan Phillips, who, by the way, wasn't
Speaker 3: giving up a whole bunch of contact.
Speaker 2: He did have.
Speaker 3: I mean, ex wOBA was like top ten percent against
Speaker 3: a strikeout rate right around the thirty was twenty eight
Speaker 3: point two k percentage, low walks, He had a really
Speaker 3: low era.
Speaker 2: Expected era was a bit up. But really, I.
Speaker 3: Don't even tell you all that stuff. He's with the Dodgers.
Speaker 3: He's gonna be the guy. If he falters a lot,
Speaker 3: they can go to Bruce Dharr and they do obviously
Speaker 3: have some options. But he has been great in spring.
Speaker 3: He's got the trust, and you've got the best off
Speaker 3: in baseball behind him, and there's going to be a
Speaker 3: lot lot of opportunities. So I love a closer with
Speaker 3: opportunities that's not inside the top ten. He will break
Speaker 3: into the top ten this year and probably be a
Speaker 3: stupid value. So Evan Phillips is my breakout closer all right.
Speaker 1: Just to run through the rosters for you. For the
Speaker 1: breakout teams, Welsh has Gabriel Moreno, Tristan Cassas, Nolan Gorman,
Speaker 1: Michael Bush, Anthony Volpi love that one, Riley Green, Jaron Durand,
Speaker 1: Michael King, Brandon Fott and Evan Phillips. I've got Logan o'hapi,
Speaker 1: Josh Naylor, Edward Julian Noelvee Marte Junior, Kemenaro, Jordan Walker,
Speaker 1: Jackson Curio, Michael King, Bailey Ober and Andre's Munio's. But
Speaker 1: we want to hear from you who are the breakouts
Speaker 1: in your mind in twenty twenty four. Drop your names
Speaker 1: the comments below. Tell us who you're drafting with fervor,
Speaker 1: with excitement. You just might win yourself a trophy Smack
Speaker 1: Championship belt while you're at it. Don't forget to subscribe
Speaker 1: to the YouTube channel. As Welsh's hat is looking deep
Speaker 1: into my soul right now, very unsettling. Don't get to
Speaker 1: do that. Ring the bell for notifications, and of course
Speaker 1: make sure you sink all your leagues over a Fantasy
Speaker 1: pros two to use all the draft software and to
Speaker 1: use all of the incredible tools to manage your team.
Speaker 1: To draft your team. The draft Assistant with Sink will
Speaker 1: help you get all the right players on your squad
Speaker 1: without a doubt, so you are ready and armed and dangerous,
Speaker 1: just like Welsh's hat for the twenty twenty four baseball season.
Speaker 1: That'll do it for us, because I'm gonna have nightmares,
Speaker 1: but the story of the game goes on. For the
Speaker 1: Welsh's hat, I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids.
Speaker 1: Nightmare for you all.