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Speaker 1: Welcome and everybody to Fantasy Crows. This is the Fantasy

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Speaker 1: Baseball Podcast has with Joey Paid jopis a Pia. Today

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Speaker 1: we're gonna have some fun. It's time for the All

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Speaker 1: Breakout Team for twenty twenty four. The guys we're gonna

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Speaker 1: win you, leagues. The guys are gonna carry you to glory.

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Speaker 1: And by glory, well I mean maybe some money, maybe

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Speaker 1: some I don't know, trophies, or perhaps even an incredible belt,

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Speaker 1: which we're gonna be giving away here pretty soon on

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Speaker 1: the channel. But before we give away things, I want

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Speaker 1: to keep one thing, and it's the Welsh. I always

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Speaker 1: want to keep you around because it's fun to have

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Speaker 1: you around. Welsh breakouts the definition can be all over

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Speaker 1: the place. What's your definition of a breakout player?

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Speaker 2: Oh?

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Speaker 3: Man, I completely agree with what you're saying. Like the

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Speaker 3: line between breakouts and sleepers is a very very thin line,

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Speaker 3: Like I'm not really sure where it completes. I mean,

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Speaker 3: sleepers kind of lives in a world of a player

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Speaker 3: that is being so undervalued. Breakouts are a player that

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Speaker 3: is ready to take that next step in value, And

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Speaker 3: that's kind of how I view them, you know, even

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Speaker 3: looking at my own list, I would say for the

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Speaker 3: most part, every single player on here is not seen

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Speaker 3: in some like elite tier, and sometimes the jumps might

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Speaker 3: not even be I don't know, like insanely exponential. But

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Speaker 3: to me, it is about the tier change that ends

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Speaker 3: up happening. A guy that you know hits two point

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Speaker 3: fifty with twenty something homers can jump into being a

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Speaker 3: two seventy thirty plus homerun hitter. That changes the tier

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Speaker 3: a player. I have a player that was a twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty guy last year, but the average stunk. I think

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Speaker 3: this player can improve their batted ball skills this year,

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Speaker 3: can improve overall on the batting average and turn that

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty into closer to a thirty thirty with a

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Speaker 3: better batting average, and that changes the tier. So these

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Speaker 3: are definitely players that are on my watch list, on

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Speaker 3: my draft list I want on all my teams, But

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Speaker 3: there is no O'Neill Cruise. I did not put him

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Speaker 3: on this list just out of like you know, sanity

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Speaker 3: for everybody, because I put him on everything. I absolutely

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Speaker 3: think he is a breakout, but he is I've actually

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Speaker 3: defined him more as a sleeper because his value has

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Speaker 3: been so low but I did not put him on

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Speaker 3: this list, so you guys can all feel okay, we

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Speaker 3: will pick a different shortstop and it is the twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty guy I spoke about.

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Speaker 1: Well for more onneal Cruz content, just watch any other

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Speaker 1: video with Welsh that we've recorded. But no, what you

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Speaker 1: did stop, I think everybody appreciates that.

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Speaker 2: And we're trying to get different names. We're trying to

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Speaker 2: throw out some other you guys are gonna hear some names.

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Speaker 1: But we're also trying to drive home certain things that

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Speaker 1: we think and when we are on something like last

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Speaker 1: year we were on Corbyn Carrol, we were on Azzi Albi's.

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Speaker 1: A lot of things that we were on were right

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Speaker 1: and we kept driving into the ground and we did

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Speaker 1: it for a reason because we wanted you to be

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Speaker 1: in on them as well. But for me, whilst the

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Speaker 1: breakout is a player that's shown you at least the

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Speaker 1: piece you know, they haven't quite you know, put it

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Speaker 1: over a full season, I think these are the guys

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Speaker 1: that are ready to show it to you over a

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Speaker 1: full season that can really give you that productivity that

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Speaker 1: you're looking for. And again, when you're trying to figure

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Speaker 1: out how to approach your drafts. Make sure you go

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Speaker 1: Of course, Draft Wizard is up and running. We want

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Speaker 1: the tools so you can go out there and crush

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Speaker 1: all of your drafts, crush all of your leagues, crush

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Speaker 1: all of your trades. And when you do all those things,

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Speaker 1: this glorious belt, all you have to do is subscribe

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Speaker 1: to Fantasy Pros MLB YouTube channel and comment below on

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Speaker 1: any video. That's it. That's all you got to do,

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Speaker 1: ring that belt that it goes ding for notifications so

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Speaker 1: you know every time a new episode is up, and

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Speaker 1: Fantasy Baseball championship belt. Only want trophy, smack.

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Speaker 3: Want to touch the shiny want to touch the shiny belt.

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Speaker 1: Speaking of shiny things, how about this hat that Welsh

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Speaker 1: is wearing on the YouTube channel today? What hat is

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Speaker 1: this for? What hat? It's staring me down, It's looking

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Speaker 1: into my soul? What team is this?

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Speaker 3: Did you say what the hat? By the way, did

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Speaker 3: you say what the hat is this?

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Speaker 2: This is there's a little bit here in it.

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Speaker 1: This is the bit is killing on the audio only

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Speaker 1: version of the show. I know.

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Speaker 3: Anyway, I actually teased this hat that I wasn't sure

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Speaker 3: if I would wear it because it might stress people out,

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Speaker 3: but I decided today We're going to do it. I'm

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Speaker 3: looking into your soul? Who are your brain?

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Speaker 1: The future for breakouts? I think it's the very appropriate we.

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Speaker 3: Are This is the lake elsinor storm. I believe this

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Speaker 3: is one of their alternative hats. Their logo is like

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Speaker 3: a storm with eyes on it, and then they have

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Speaker 3: this alternative one where it is just eyes that stare

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Speaker 3: at you.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, this is like the double vision. This is

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Speaker 2: like a pseudo.

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Speaker 3: Doctor Strange third eye, but it's third and fourth thigh

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Speaker 3: looking for the breakout.

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Speaker 1: It feels like a Looney Tunes, like a character lurking

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Speaker 1: in the dark.

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Speaker 2: I could do this funny is going like this.

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Speaker 1: No, no, don't do that. Let's not do that, guys.

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Speaker 1: Let's get to the breakouts. Let's start a catcher. And

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Speaker 1: my guy is somebody we talked about last year and

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Speaker 1: we saw a little bit in twenty twenty three, but

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Speaker 1: not enough, unfortunately, because Logan o'hapi ended up having some

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Speaker 1: injuries that derailed him. But he did flash the power.

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Speaker 1: In just fifty one games last year, he had fourteen homers. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: the batting average did drag, but we could say that

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Speaker 1: about a lot of catchers. When we're trying to draft catchers,

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Speaker 1: we're looking for power most of the time. And those

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Speaker 1: two catcher leagues right now, this guy is currently going

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Speaker 1: as the fourteenth catcher overall ADP of one to ninety six.

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Speaker 1: I think, oh Hopy's one of these guys that you

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Speaker 1: can wait on catcher, even a fifteen team league snag

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Speaker 1: this guy. He could probably match the same productivity or

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Speaker 1: close to it that you might get out of a

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Speaker 1: Francisco Alvarez was going ahead of him, maybe even a

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Speaker 1: Cal Rawley if things really go well for a Hopy.

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Speaker 1: But again, the fourteenth catcher overall, I think he's a

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Speaker 1: steal and I think he's gonna be one of the

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Speaker 1: bright spots for an Angels team that might not have

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Speaker 1: a lot of light shining on it. So a Logan

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Speaker 1: o'hapi is that guy for me? Welsh, who's the catcher

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Speaker 1: that made your all breakout team of twenty twenty four?

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Speaker 3: Well, you can have some catchers with good batting average.

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Speaker 3: A question is going to be the counting stats and

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Speaker 3: where are they going to go? My favorite catcher this

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Speaker 3: is a homer play. I believe this is well.

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Speaker 2: Now I have two diamondback homers here.

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Speaker 3: Gabriel Moreno is my favorite of the catchers to not

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Speaker 3: only just draft because he comes in at an overall

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Speaker 3: lower cost.

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Speaker 2: He's eleventh.

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Speaker 3: As far as the ECR goes on catchers one sixty

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Speaker 3: six to EIGHTYP, I'll say he can go even go

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Speaker 3: later in the ADP gets pushed up a little bit

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Speaker 3: by like two catcher NFBC leagues that throw that up,

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Speaker 3: so it's even a little bit later. But Gabby Moreno

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Speaker 3: in the playoffs absolutely lit it on fire, multiple home

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Speaker 3: runs hitting in that three spot. He's an under twenty

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Speaker 3: percent strikeout guy. Hit two eighty four this past year.

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Speaker 3: He had an expected batting average it was still over

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Speaker 3: two sixty. He improved his hard hit numbers. The thing

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Speaker 3: he's got to do is get the ball in the air,

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Speaker 3: and that's what we see from a lot of young players,

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Speaker 3: and this is a pretty hit or friendly environment.

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Speaker 1: He's going to be.

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Speaker 3: Put in RBI opportunities throughout the year, and this team

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Speaker 3: absolutely rallies around him, and the playoffs I think was

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Speaker 3: like a really first early sign to realize that they

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Speaker 3: are comfortable as can be with this guy being the

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Speaker 3: number three hitter because he's a good contact guy.

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Speaker 2: So can he improve the launch angle?

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Speaker 1: Yes? Will he?

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Speaker 3: That's going to be the thing in question. He was

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Speaker 3: like a four or five percent launch angle guy based

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Speaker 3: on hard hit and barreling. If he can get the

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Speaker 3: ball near double digits, he will surpass twenty home runs

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Speaker 3: this year. I think the RV I think he is

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Speaker 3: going to blow pass all of his projected numbers, and

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Speaker 3: that's why I'm so heavily invested.

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Speaker 2: Projections in general have him.

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Speaker 3: Beating last year's numbers, but there's still I think low

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Speaker 3: eleven homers, sixty one RBIs.

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Speaker 2: I'll put the check down.

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Speaker 3: He is going to beat every single projection from ATC

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Speaker 3: or the bat X this year and he is my

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Speaker 3: favorite breakout catcher where I think next year we'll be

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Speaker 3: looking at him as a top five or six catcher.

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Speaker 2: Overall.

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Speaker 1: I love him and head to head points leagues too,

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Speaker 1: because the contact rate. Even though he might not hit

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Speaker 1: fifteen home runs, I'll take the hits, I'll take the

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Speaker 1: run score, and I'll take where he's hitting in the

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Speaker 1: batting order. Let's take a quick break in the action

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Speaker 1: now back to the action. Let's go to first base. Welsh,

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Speaker 1: who do you have all right?

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Speaker 3: Going out to first base? This is one of my

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Speaker 3: absolute favorites. Tristan Cassis with the Boston Red Sox. He

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Speaker 3: is the ninth first baseman on the board ninety five overall,

220
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Speaker 3: and Tristan Kassas exemplifies like everything that you're looking out

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Speaker 3: of a first basement as far as you like, big

222
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Speaker 3: hard hit metrics, thirteen percent barrel percentage, forty six percent

223
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Speaker 3: hard hit rate. He had expected batting average just about

224
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Speaker 3: within ten batting average points of what he did. High

225
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Speaker 3: launch angle, gets the ball in the air fifteen point

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Speaker 3: seven degree and average over ninety one miles per hour

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Speaker 3: on his overall hits. So he hits the ball really hard.

228
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Speaker 3: He makes sures he makes sure he barrels. He also

229
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Speaker 3: is putting up a pretty respectable batting average that I

230
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Speaker 3: think has more upside I think for a high walk

231
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Speaker 3: not exceptionally high strikeout guy with these type of batt

232
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Speaker 3: of ball skills, he is going to again I'm picking

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Speaker 3: on this again. He's going to surpass what projections have

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Speaker 3: him at. They don't have him at thirty. I firmly

235
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Speaker 3: believe he's going to be a thirty home run hitter

236
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Speaker 3: this year. I think he's going to cross the eighty

237
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Speaker 3: run and eighty RBI territory. He's one of my favorite

238
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Speaker 3: third basemen our first baseman, and there are a few

239
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Speaker 3: I don't really like that are a little bit ahead.

240
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Speaker 3: If you can get him at a corner infielder two,

241
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Speaker 3: I'm in Tristan Costa is my breakout first baseman.

242
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Speaker 1: Well, my guy, you can definitely get at corner at

243
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Speaker 1: first base. It's Josh Nayler of the Cleveland Guardians one

244
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Speaker 1: twenty two consensus ADP. Again, you can find that Fantasypros

245
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Speaker 1: dot com. The rank right now is the seventeenth first

246
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Speaker 1: baseman going off the board. And you know Naylor last

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Speaker 1: year had to deal with injuries. He only played one

248
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Speaker 1: hundred and twenty one games, but he did seventeen homers

249
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Speaker 1: and he drove in ninety seven runs. He's hitting behind

250
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Speaker 1: Jose Ramirez in that order. He hit three zero eight

251
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Speaker 1: last year. The X batting average was two ninety three.

252
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Speaker 1: The K percentage was thirteen point seven. He is a

253
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Speaker 1: very valuable player, and I think far more valuable than

254
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Speaker 1: the ADP suggests. I remember last year when we had

255
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Speaker 1: Aero conon talking about projections. It was one of his

256
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Speaker 1: favorite players, and he was one hundred percent right. He

257
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Speaker 1: really did perform. But I think there's a breakout coming

258
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Speaker 1: where if this guy can play one hundred and fifty

259
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Speaker 1: games this year just adding the volume alone. Not only

260
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Speaker 1: could he drive in one hundred runs easily, but I

261
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Speaker 1: think you're also looking at a guy that could approach

262
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Speaker 1: twenty five homers. There might even be a thirty homer

263
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Speaker 1: season than there two for him if everything breaks right.

264
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Speaker 1: Steamer hasn't projected for a four to eighty slugging percentage.

265
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Speaker 1: That's what I want to see. But the funny thing

266
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Speaker 1: is you look at all the projections for Naylor. Everything's

267
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Speaker 1: around one hundred and thirty something games, and I just

268
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Speaker 1: think he's going to play more than that this year

269
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Speaker 1: as long as you know, the injury gods are kind

270
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Speaker 1: to us, and Josh Naylor could be a guy that

271
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Speaker 1: absolutely breaks out. And the Cleveland Guardians need that too.

272
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Speaker 1: They need somebody else in that order to really stand

273
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Speaker 1: out besides Ramirez. I think it was a really tough

274
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Speaker 1: season for them offensively as a whole, as a unit,

275
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Speaker 1: and Naylor could be a guy that could really change

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Speaker 1: that dynamic for them if he does develop and take

277
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Speaker 1: that next step. And you could say last year was

278
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Speaker 1: the breakout maybe, but again, I think there's another gear

279
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Speaker 1: in this player and I think the ADP is far

280
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Speaker 1: too low Welsh. Do you agree? Yep?

281
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Speaker 2: I love him probably.

282
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Speaker 3: I mean, if I didn't love Costas as much as

283
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Speaker 3: I do, he would have probably been number two as

284
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Speaker 3: far as far as like identifying breakout. So, by the way,

285
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Speaker 3: I don't know if it was last year too, but

286
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Speaker 3: Ariol we talked about Naylor this.

287
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Speaker 2: Year as well.

288
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Speaker 3: Yeah, said, this is one of those guys and when

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Speaker 3: you can get batting average from players, I actually don't

290
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Speaker 3: even think Costas and Naylor as a combo is the

291
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Speaker 3: worst thing in the world, because you're gonna get a

292
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Speaker 3: bunch of RBI from Naylor.

293
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Speaker 2: I think Costas is going to score more runs than

294
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Speaker 2: you expect.

295
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Speaker 3: But yeah, I love it, especially if you're hugging batting

296
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Speaker 3: average a little bit more or you're trying to make

297
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Speaker 3: up for it. Naylor is a great piece to put

298
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Speaker 3: in there. He is a home run threat. He makes

299
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Speaker 3: really really good contact, consistent contact, and we saw the

300
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Speaker 3: RBIs kind of fly up last year. We just got

301
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Speaker 3: to make sure that the rest of the pieces around

302
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Speaker 3: him are, you know, in RBI opportunities. But yeah, I

303
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Speaker 3: think Naylor is a fantastic pick here.

304
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Speaker 1: Well, look ninety seven last year and one hundred and

305
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Speaker 1: twenty one games. That's pretty good. I also think, well,

306
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Speaker 1: you know, when you're looking at a guy like Naylor,

307
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Speaker 1: it's also a matter you know, not only his health,

308
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Speaker 1: but also you know, is that player ready to make

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Speaker 1: that next step. He's been in the league a little

310
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Speaker 1: while now, I think you know that comfortability factor starts

311
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Speaker 1: to set in where you see these kids start to blossom.

312
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Speaker 1: And I'll tell you this, I'll take an a step further.

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Speaker 1: If you're a salary cap league, what a great value

314
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Speaker 1: play he is? Like, you don't want to pay for

315
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Speaker 1: a big first baseman. You know, maybe you get a

316
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Speaker 1: twenty five, one hundred season out of Naylor with a

317
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Speaker 1: two ninety or three hundred batting average, I'd be a

318
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Speaker 1: pretty sweet return on investment. That probably be a lot

319
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Speaker 1: cheaper than going after the top tier first basement. All right,

320
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Speaker 1: for me at second base at two twenty two and

321
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Speaker 1: adp second baseman off of the board, it's Edward Julian

322
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Speaker 1: of the Minnesota Twins. I love this guy. Last year

323
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Speaker 1: he was the player that popped for me in the spring.

324
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Speaker 1: I was very excited about him last year and he

325
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Speaker 1: got called up things didn't go well, got sent down,

326
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Speaker 1: came back and started to show you all the things

327
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Speaker 1: that I was very excited about. And if you go

328
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Speaker 1: back and look at the minor league track record of

329
00:14:20,040 --> 00:14:22,040
Speaker 1: this player, two hundred and sixty three games in the

330
00:14:22,080 --> 00:14:24,480
Speaker 1: minor leagues, right over three seasons, he hit two to

331
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Speaker 1: eighty five with a four to thirty seven OBP, a

332
00:14:27,320 --> 00:14:30,200
Speaker 1: four eighty seven slugging, and a nine to twenty four OPS.

333
00:14:30,240 --> 00:14:33,920
Speaker 1: They moved on from Horey Polanco. They've made room. Julian's

334
00:14:33,960 --> 00:14:36,240
Speaker 1: the guy. Last year, one hundred nine games for the Twins,

335
00:14:36,240 --> 00:14:38,600
Speaker 1: he had sixteen homers, hit two sixty three, but that

336
00:14:38,800 --> 00:14:42,000
Speaker 1: OBP three point eighty one. I'm telling you this guy

337
00:14:42,120 --> 00:14:44,360
Speaker 1: is going to be an on base machine. I love

338
00:14:44,440 --> 00:14:46,840
Speaker 1: him in OBP leagues. I love him in points leagues,

339
00:14:46,880 --> 00:14:49,600
Speaker 1: which is where I prefer to play, but also Welsh.

340
00:14:49,720 --> 00:14:52,760
Speaker 1: I've compared him statistically. I think he's the next Jose Vedro,

341
00:14:53,160 --> 00:14:55,280
Speaker 1: a player that egans just set it and forget it.

342
00:14:55,440 --> 00:14:57,080
Speaker 1: And I think that's gonna be a very valuable thing

343
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Speaker 1: in fantasy and for the Minnesota Twins this year. Who's

344
00:14:59,400 --> 00:15:02,160
Speaker 1: your second base breakout of twenty twenty four?

345
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Speaker 2: I probably would have picked Julian by the way, had

346
00:15:04,040 --> 00:15:04,320
Speaker 2: you not.

347
00:15:05,080 --> 00:15:06,240
Speaker 1: Okay, but let's go.

348
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Speaker 3: I do love me some Nolan Gorman, and this might

349
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Speaker 3: be a case of we have to have like the

350
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Speaker 3: breakout may have already happened, you know how you said

351
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Speaker 3: that when Naylor, You're like, well, the breakout may have

352
00:15:15,840 --> 00:15:16,720
Speaker 3: already kind of been there.

353
00:15:16,800 --> 00:15:18,360
Speaker 2: Gorman and may have kind of been there. He did

354
00:15:18,480 --> 00:15:19,400
Speaker 2: hit twenty seven.

355
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Speaker 1: I think there's a better version of Gorman, just like

356
00:15:21,480 --> 00:15:23,040
Speaker 1: there could be a better version of Nailer two.

357
00:15:23,440 --> 00:15:26,520
Speaker 3: That's right, But he also hit twenty seven homers and

358
00:15:26,600 --> 00:15:29,040
Speaker 3: he barely has an ADP inside the top two hundred.

359
00:15:29,040 --> 00:15:32,280
Speaker 3: He's the sixteenth second baseman, so not a starter in

360
00:15:32,360 --> 00:15:35,960
Speaker 3: fifteen team rod O. It's one eighty two according to

361
00:15:35,960 --> 00:15:39,440
Speaker 3: the consensus ADP that you can find over in Fantasy pros.

362
00:15:39,680 --> 00:15:41,920
Speaker 3: And there's still another gear in here, but that gear

363
00:15:42,000 --> 00:15:43,840
Speaker 3: has to be about the batting average. So he hit

364
00:15:43,880 --> 00:15:45,880
Speaker 3: two thirty six this past year, which was a ten

365
00:15:45,960 --> 00:15:48,760
Speaker 3: point jump from the year before, and the strike cups

366
00:15:48,760 --> 00:15:52,280
Speaker 3: have been an issue consistently. His issue has been higher

367
00:15:52,280 --> 00:15:54,320
Speaker 3: in the zone, and that's what they had had him

368
00:15:54,320 --> 00:15:57,720
Speaker 3: go work with driveline the previous year on and that's

369
00:15:57,760 --> 00:16:00,560
Speaker 3: still kind of a you know, a work in progress.

370
00:16:00,640 --> 00:16:04,200
Speaker 3: He's one of the better low zone hitters in all

371
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Speaker 3: of baseball, and the hard hit numbers spoke for itself.

372
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Speaker 3: I mean, forty eight point five percent hard hit rate,

373
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Speaker 3: one of the better ones in baseball, sixteen and a half.

374
00:16:11,560 --> 00:16:12,680
Speaker 2: Barrel rate that's up there.

375
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Speaker 3: One of the best launch angles over twenty degrees twenty

376
00:16:15,560 --> 00:16:18,760
Speaker 3: two point two, and had an average ninety one EV.

377
00:16:18,920 --> 00:16:20,880
Speaker 3: So you go back to kasas these are kind of

378
00:16:20,880 --> 00:16:23,640
Speaker 3: similar numbers, except the hard hit and launch angle even bigger.

379
00:16:23,640 --> 00:16:27,080
Speaker 3: For Gorman, his expected batting average has been two thirty

380
00:16:27,160 --> 00:16:29,800
Speaker 3: nine or two thirty eight for two straight years. The

381
00:16:29,880 --> 00:16:32,760
Speaker 3: difference is his actual batting average is two thirty six.

382
00:16:32,880 --> 00:16:35,480
Speaker 3: If he can improve higher in the zone just a

383
00:16:35,480 --> 00:16:39,120
Speaker 3: little bit, he can start matching what our higher expected

384
00:16:39,160 --> 00:16:41,880
Speaker 3: stats and he will be one of the bigger values

385
00:16:42,040 --> 00:16:45,680
Speaker 3: post one point fifty thirty plus homers in the middle infield.

386
00:16:45,720 --> 00:16:48,480
Speaker 3: If you can get a two forty batting average would

387
00:16:48,840 --> 00:16:52,360
Speaker 3: be phenomenal. It'll just be will we get that? Every

388
00:16:52,400 --> 00:16:56,040
Speaker 3: projection system says, so we're well atc two thirty nine,

389
00:16:56,040 --> 00:16:59,120
Speaker 3: I should say, but essentially two forty. But you've got

390
00:16:59,440 --> 00:17:02,200
Speaker 3: right in that range. Give me two forty and give

391
00:17:02,200 --> 00:17:05,119
Speaker 3: me thirty plus homers and Nolan Gorman where he can

392
00:17:05,160 --> 00:17:06,280
Speaker 3: be a big breakout this year.

393
00:17:06,520 --> 00:17:08,600
Speaker 1: Love it all right, Let's get to the third base

394
00:17:08,720 --> 00:17:10,880
Speaker 1: side there. Who is at the hot corner to break

395
00:17:10,920 --> 00:17:12,200
Speaker 1: out in twenty twenty four? Welsh?

396
00:17:12,760 --> 00:17:17,000
Speaker 3: All right, for my third baseman, I'm going off script

397
00:17:17,000 --> 00:17:20,680
Speaker 3: a little bit. I'm picking Michael Busch, who and why

398
00:17:20,760 --> 00:17:24,760
Speaker 3: say off script? ADP of four hundred ranked thirty five

399
00:17:25,200 --> 00:17:29,640
Speaker 3: will not actually most likely play that position. And I'm

400
00:17:29,680 --> 00:17:33,160
Speaker 3: throwing out the bigger caveat is Cody Bellinger. Cody Bellinger

401
00:17:33,160 --> 00:17:35,840
Speaker 3: resigning If we had heard that Michael Bush was going

402
00:17:35,920 --> 00:17:38,160
Speaker 3: to be like a primary first baseman. If Bellinger comes

403
00:17:38,200 --> 00:17:40,399
Speaker 3: back and as a primary first baseman, that leaves us

404
00:17:40,400 --> 00:17:43,679
Speaker 3: some questions. If he goes into center field, it opens

405
00:17:43,720 --> 00:17:45,840
Speaker 3: it up. They've also said they have not announced who

406
00:17:45,880 --> 00:17:47,320
Speaker 3: the third basement is going to be. It could be

407
00:17:47,359 --> 00:17:50,800
Speaker 3: morele could be Michael Bush. But the reason I want

408
00:17:50,840 --> 00:17:52,879
Speaker 3: to focus on Michael Busher is he does qualify at

409
00:17:52,880 --> 00:17:56,840
Speaker 3: this position and this team. Given the at bats, He's

410
00:17:56,960 --> 00:17:59,720
Speaker 3: ready to have his breakout season. He's ready to be

411
00:17:59,880 --> 00:18:03,880
Speaker 3: a higher batting average and Nolan Gorman type ATC only

412
00:18:03,920 --> 00:18:07,639
Speaker 3: has ninety one games, but twelve homers, hitting two thirty seven,

413
00:18:08,160 --> 00:18:10,199
Speaker 3: he's gonna hit high. He hit three twenty three in

414
00:18:10,240 --> 00:18:13,639
Speaker 3: Triple A this past year, obviously a friendlier ballpark in

415
00:18:13,680 --> 00:18:16,840
Speaker 3: the PCL, but he had an under twenty percent strikeout percentage,

416
00:18:16,920 --> 00:18:19,840
Speaker 3: K percentage eighteen point eight, a high walk percentage, and

417
00:18:19,880 --> 00:18:22,679
Speaker 3: he hit twenty seven homers in Triple A alone. If

418
00:18:22,680 --> 00:18:25,920
Speaker 3: he's given the opportunity in a friendly ballpark in Chicago,

419
00:18:26,080 --> 00:18:29,439
Speaker 3: he will hit over twenty homers. He is absolutely free.

420
00:18:30,160 --> 00:18:32,200
Speaker 3: But the question is is does a playing time get

421
00:18:32,200 --> 00:18:34,879
Speaker 3: decimated by Cody Bellinger. There's probably a lot of players

422
00:18:34,920 --> 00:18:36,720
Speaker 3: we could have picked here. This has been someone I

423
00:18:36,760 --> 00:18:38,879
Speaker 3: have been picking up in drafts. He's now cheaper than

424
00:18:38,920 --> 00:18:41,320
Speaker 3: ever because of Bellinger. But if he does lock down

425
00:18:41,359 --> 00:18:43,600
Speaker 3: that spot, be it at DH, be it at first,

426
00:18:43,680 --> 00:18:45,159
Speaker 3: be it at third, be it at all of it,

427
00:18:45,240 --> 00:18:47,359
Speaker 3: and he gets regular at bats, he's gonna hit over

428
00:18:47,400 --> 00:18:49,840
Speaker 3: two fifty and he's gonna hit over twenty homers. It'll

429
00:18:49,880 --> 00:18:51,000
Speaker 3: be a breakout for Michael Bush.

430
00:18:51,480 --> 00:18:54,439
Speaker 1: I feel like Morell's gonna get that first crack at bats.

431
00:18:54,760 --> 00:18:55,800
Speaker 1: That's just how I feel about it.

432
00:18:55,880 --> 00:18:57,800
Speaker 3: But that's gonna be The thing is where are they?

433
00:18:57,840 --> 00:19:00,520
Speaker 3: Are they comfortable moving players? I think Bellinger might play

434
00:19:00,640 --> 00:19:04,560
Speaker 3: between center and first base. Pete Kraarmstrong is a big

435
00:19:04,680 --> 00:19:06,920
Speaker 3: kind of key to this as well, if they move

436
00:19:07,000 --> 00:19:09,199
Speaker 3: these pieces around in Michael Busch, Michael Busch just it

437
00:19:09,200 --> 00:19:11,920
Speaker 3: doesn't matter the position. He needs the regular playing time

438
00:19:11,960 --> 00:19:13,800
Speaker 3: and if that happens, he is going to break out.

439
00:19:13,800 --> 00:19:16,600
Speaker 3: If not, egg on my face, this one will not work,

440
00:19:17,080 --> 00:19:17,440
Speaker 3: all right.

441
00:19:17,520 --> 00:19:19,800
Speaker 1: Noelve, Marte is that guy for me at third base

442
00:19:20,080 --> 00:19:22,680
Speaker 1: one to eighty five ADP, the nineteen third baseman going

443
00:19:22,680 --> 00:19:25,560
Speaker 1: off the board. Marte did get a small sample size

444
00:19:25,600 --> 00:19:28,040
Speaker 1: with the Reds last year, thirty five games, but my

445
00:19:28,119 --> 00:19:30,280
Speaker 1: goodness was a good three to six team batting average

446
00:19:30,600 --> 00:19:33,080
Speaker 1: three sixty six OBP of four to fifty six slugging.

447
00:19:33,400 --> 00:19:35,240
Speaker 1: He's got power, he's got speed. You look at the

448
00:19:35,280 --> 00:19:37,440
Speaker 1: minor league track record again. He's just turning twenty two

449
00:19:37,480 --> 00:19:39,520
Speaker 1: this year, but the minor league track record is good.

450
00:19:39,520 --> 00:19:42,320
Speaker 1: A two eighty two slash with three sixty seven, four

451
00:19:42,400 --> 00:19:45,399
Speaker 1: sixty seven, eight thirty three ops. These are all the

452
00:19:45,400 --> 00:19:47,680
Speaker 1: things you're looking for. He's got power, he's got speed.

453
00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:50,840
Speaker 1: He has got the profile. We've been waiting for this

454
00:19:50,920 --> 00:19:53,560
Speaker 1: kid a long time. The first time I saw him Welsh,

455
00:19:53,600 --> 00:19:55,200
Speaker 1: I want to say, the first time I saw him

456
00:19:55,240 --> 00:19:58,520
Speaker 1: was in twenty twenty one play and he was in

457
00:19:58,520 --> 00:20:01,080
Speaker 1: the Seattle organization still and I it was very impressed

458
00:20:01,160 --> 00:20:02,800
Speaker 1: by this kid, and I thought, this guy is going

459
00:20:02,840 --> 00:20:06,199
Speaker 1: to certainly skyrocket through. And then obviously the change of

460
00:20:06,200 --> 00:20:08,840
Speaker 1: scenery there in that big tray with Luis Castillo brought

461
00:20:08,920 --> 00:20:11,800
Speaker 1: him over to Cincinnati. But Cincinnati, there's a lot of

462
00:20:11,840 --> 00:20:14,040
Speaker 1: reasons to be excited. It's a young team. There's gonna

463
00:20:14,040 --> 00:20:17,000
Speaker 1: be growing pains. But I think Marte's skill set, with

464
00:20:17,080 --> 00:20:19,520
Speaker 1: the pop and the speed and the ballpark factor he's

465
00:20:19,520 --> 00:20:22,040
Speaker 1: gonna be playing in I think it's enough for him

466
00:20:22,040 --> 00:20:23,440
Speaker 1: to break out. I think it's enough for him to

467
00:20:23,440 --> 00:20:25,120
Speaker 1: be the everyday starter at third, and I think it's

468
00:20:25,200 --> 00:20:28,639
Speaker 1: enough for him to translate not everything that he did

469
00:20:28,720 --> 00:20:30,919
Speaker 1: last year in those thirty five games in the small sample,

470
00:20:30,960 --> 00:20:33,000
Speaker 1: but enough of it that I think he's going to

471
00:20:33,040 --> 00:20:35,480
Speaker 1: be a huge value with that return on investment. Now,

472
00:20:35,480 --> 00:20:37,760
Speaker 1: when it comes to shortstop, I went back and forth

473
00:20:37,800 --> 00:20:40,160
Speaker 1: on this one. I've been really I don't know about

474
00:20:40,160 --> 00:20:42,440
Speaker 1: you but I've been drinking the Michael Garcia kool aid.

475
00:20:42,960 --> 00:20:44,240
Speaker 1: But at the end of the day, I had to

476
00:20:44,280 --> 00:20:47,359
Speaker 1: go with my boy, Junior Caminaro instead. Now he qualifies

477
00:20:47,400 --> 00:20:50,280
Speaker 1: it short, qualifies a third in most of your leagues.

478
00:20:50,280 --> 00:20:53,120
Speaker 1: But Kamonaro, to me, we just talked about the goods.

479
00:20:53,160 --> 00:20:55,399
Speaker 1: He's the goods. Hits the ball the opposite field with power,

480
00:20:56,119 --> 00:20:58,480
Speaker 1: makes great contact. I don't think there's anything left for

481
00:20:58,560 --> 00:21:00,639
Speaker 1: him to really prove. I know he is to kid,

482
00:21:01,040 --> 00:21:02,720
Speaker 1: I know it's another young player, and it feels like

483
00:21:02,760 --> 00:21:05,960
Speaker 1: I'm talking dynasty here, but at the same time, well,

484
00:21:06,240 --> 00:21:08,160
Speaker 1: it's hard not to get excited about this player. Jose

485
00:21:08,240 --> 00:21:10,399
Speaker 1: Cabalio is the only thing standing in his way, and

486
00:21:10,440 --> 00:21:11,919
Speaker 1: I just don't think it's enough. I think there's a

487
00:21:11,920 --> 00:21:13,640
Speaker 1: big giant gap in the middle of that order without

488
00:21:13,640 --> 00:21:16,480
Speaker 1: Wander Franco. And you're looking at a guy last year

489
00:21:16,480 --> 00:21:18,960
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty three that combined in single A or

490
00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:21,840
Speaker 1: should say high he in double A thirty one homers,

491
00:21:21,920 --> 00:21:24,159
Speaker 1: ninety four RBI hit three twenty four with an nine

492
00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:26,880
Speaker 1: to seventy six ops. There's very little for this kid

493
00:21:26,920 --> 00:21:29,639
Speaker 1: to learn. I think he will get his fifty to

494
00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:32,960
Speaker 1: seventy five, maybe even one hundred at bats at Triple A.

495
00:21:33,240 --> 00:21:35,040
Speaker 1: I don't think it's gonna take that long. I think

496
00:21:35,080 --> 00:21:37,240
Speaker 1: by Memorial Day this kid is up. If not May first,

497
00:21:37,280 --> 00:21:39,119
Speaker 1: he's up. And I think cam Naro is going to

498
00:21:39,160 --> 00:21:40,919
Speaker 1: take this league by storm. He's going to be a

499
00:21:40,920 --> 00:21:43,280
Speaker 1: tremendous player from the jump, and he's a guy that

500
00:21:43,280 --> 00:21:44,840
Speaker 1: I want to invest in very much. Now you're the

501
00:21:44,880 --> 00:21:47,440
Speaker 1: prospect guy. Do you think I'm being too excited about

502
00:21:47,520 --> 00:21:49,560
Speaker 1: kem Naro's twenty twenty four impact?

503
00:21:49,760 --> 00:21:51,400
Speaker 3: No, I mean I'll throw out a couple of things.

504
00:21:51,480 --> 00:21:54,560
Speaker 3: He's not gonna play shortstop at all, So I would say, well,

505
00:21:54,640 --> 00:21:55,680
Speaker 3: I just want to point I don't.

506
00:21:55,480 --> 00:21:58,680
Speaker 1: Think he would if they really want to get the

507
00:21:58,720 --> 00:22:00,440
Speaker 1: bat in there, Like if they really want the log

508
00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:01,480
Speaker 1: jam him in there, he could.

509
00:22:01,760 --> 00:22:05,320
Speaker 3: The flexibility is yeah, the flexibility is there if if

510
00:22:05,359 --> 00:22:07,920
Speaker 3: he were there and they want because here's the deal, Yeah,

511
00:22:08,200 --> 00:22:12,080
Speaker 3: Yandy or Estoc Pardes, they could be the problem at third.

512
00:22:12,119 --> 00:22:14,320
Speaker 3: But you know, if Praidies moves to DH, they could

513
00:22:14,320 --> 00:22:16,240
Speaker 3: have Yandi at first. Camon Arrow made it like a

514
00:22:16,280 --> 00:22:18,280
Speaker 3: really great defensive play in spring, like he's a good

515
00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:21,399
Speaker 3: defender there. Amedrozario's kind of popping at shortstop. Caman Arroo

516
00:22:21,400 --> 00:22:24,199
Speaker 3: would actually provide them flexibility because he can play corner

517
00:22:24,280 --> 00:22:25,240
Speaker 3: and in that middle.

518
00:22:25,400 --> 00:22:25,840
Speaker 1: All of that.

519
00:22:25,880 --> 00:22:28,520
Speaker 3: Aside, I agree with that. I don't think this could

520
00:22:28,560 --> 00:22:30,560
Speaker 3: be more than fIF I think by May first, if

521
00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:32,879
Speaker 3: he's not up, I would be absolutely shocked because this

522
00:22:32,920 --> 00:22:36,159
Speaker 3: guy's ready. He's defensively been playing solid. I talked with

523
00:22:36,440 --> 00:22:39,960
Speaker 3: Carson Williams, his prospect teammate, who you know is a

524
00:22:40,000 --> 00:22:42,920
Speaker 3: defensive wizard, and he said, how close him and camon

525
00:22:43,000 --> 00:22:47,000
Speaker 3: Arow are working defensively. His bat is absolutely live. I

526
00:22:47,000 --> 00:22:49,600
Speaker 3: don't technically, I don't pick like prospects for this. I mean,

527
00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:51,240
Speaker 3: if I would, I would have probably done Holiday and

528
00:22:51,280 --> 00:22:52,160
Speaker 3: I would have done cakemon Arrow.

529
00:22:52,200 --> 00:22:54,080
Speaker 2: Because I agree with you, I want to draft him.

530
00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:56,920
Speaker 3: He's a guy that I guess for all intensive purposes

531
00:22:56,920 --> 00:22:59,440
Speaker 3: he's going to break out because he's going to be

532
00:22:59,520 --> 00:23:01,800
Speaker 3: given an off oportunity. And I think he is a

533
00:23:01,920 --> 00:23:04,199
Speaker 3: smoke and steel after two hundred because you get him

534
00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:04,399
Speaker 3: as a.

535
00:23:04,359 --> 00:23:07,600
Speaker 1: Bench of projections, Welsh, I see they have Aranda as

536
00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:11,679
Speaker 1: d H Paritis a third and Diaz at first. Do

537
00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:15,320
Speaker 1: you think I mean again, I I'm looking around and

538
00:23:15,359 --> 00:23:17,439
Speaker 1: I think that Cameron Aro is a piece that you

539
00:23:17,560 --> 00:23:20,280
Speaker 1: can't stunt the growth of for any of those guys.

540
00:23:20,320 --> 00:23:22,439
Speaker 1: As good as Diaz was last year, in Paridis was

541
00:23:22,520 --> 00:23:23,480
Speaker 1: last year at times too.

542
00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:26,760
Speaker 3: I agree that the Randa thing is interesting because it's

543
00:23:26,760 --> 00:23:28,840
Speaker 3: like that's like that stubborn, like what do we have

544
00:23:28,920 --> 00:23:29,560
Speaker 3: out of this guy?

545
00:23:30,040 --> 00:23:31,679
Speaker 2: You know, do we want? We need to see what

546
00:23:31,760 --> 00:23:32,199
Speaker 2: we like?

547
00:23:32,320 --> 00:23:35,359
Speaker 3: That presses that. But there were Estock Parides trade rumors

548
00:23:35,359 --> 00:23:37,920
Speaker 3: in the offseason. I would still say there's an opportunity.

549
00:23:37,920 --> 00:23:40,639
Speaker 3: If this team is committed to cam and Aro, you

550
00:23:40,720 --> 00:23:43,159
Speaker 3: could see a player like Esock Pradies just get moved

551
00:23:43,200 --> 00:23:46,080
Speaker 3: before camps are, before camp's end, in the season starts.

552
00:23:46,119 --> 00:23:47,320
Speaker 2: But that's why you want to make the bet.

553
00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:50,359
Speaker 3: I don't think Jonathan Ronda is enough to hold back

554
00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:53,520
Speaker 3: camon Aro. I don't think, you know, finding the spots

555
00:23:53,520 --> 00:23:56,840
Speaker 3: for Estock Praides is enough to stunt them not bringing

556
00:23:56,920 --> 00:24:00,240
Speaker 3: him up. And the Rays really should consider if if

557
00:24:00,280 --> 00:24:02,880
Speaker 3: they can find a way to make this happen, get

558
00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:05,960
Speaker 3: you have potential extra pit compensation. If he were to

559
00:24:06,000 --> 00:24:08,760
Speaker 3: start from day one, he legitimately could win Rookie of

560
00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:10,840
Speaker 3: the Year and that is more player pool money in

561
00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:13,040
Speaker 3: the draft. So I don't think the team should be dismissive,

562
00:24:13,080 --> 00:24:14,840
Speaker 3: and I don't think we should be dismissive because of

563
00:24:14,880 --> 00:24:18,280
Speaker 3: some of the early words. Sometimes got to motivate these guys,

564
00:24:18,560 --> 00:24:20,920
Speaker 3: make them show you that they deserve to be the guy,

565
00:24:20,960 --> 00:24:22,960
Speaker 3: and I think Kemano has been doing that in spring.

566
00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:25,080
Speaker 1: I would keep an eye on lineups towards the end

567
00:24:25,119 --> 00:24:27,320
Speaker 1: of spring too, because if Michael Garcia of the Royals

568
00:24:27,320 --> 00:24:30,520
Speaker 1: starts hitting, I don't know one, I don't know. They

569
00:24:30,560 --> 00:24:32,720
Speaker 1: decided to MJ. Melendez is not the leadoff guy or

570
00:24:32,760 --> 00:24:35,840
Speaker 1: whatever they and they lengthened that lineup a different way.

571
00:24:35,880 --> 00:24:37,800
Speaker 1: That would also be a guy. And the guy that

572
00:24:37,840 --> 00:24:40,879
Speaker 1: you're going to talk about, Anthony Volpi, is a player

573
00:24:40,880 --> 00:24:42,720
Speaker 1: that I've seen play in person many times here in

574
00:24:42,760 --> 00:24:45,320
Speaker 1: New Jersey where he played for the Somerset Patriots, and

575
00:24:45,680 --> 00:24:47,840
Speaker 1: I was surprised he didn't hit the ground running last year.

576
00:24:48,160 --> 00:24:50,080
Speaker 1: But I think, just like you, he is ready to

577
00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:51,640
Speaker 1: do that in twenty twenty four and break out.

578
00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:53,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, And that's what I talked about at the top.

579
00:24:53,520 --> 00:24:55,119
Speaker 3: I mean, this is we're talking about a guy that

580
00:24:55,240 --> 00:24:57,440
Speaker 3: went twenty twenty and we're like, hey, he's going to

581
00:24:57,520 --> 00:24:59,480
Speaker 3: break out. And it's like, well, how does that happen? Well,

582
00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:01,720
Speaker 3: it's because the guy hit two oh nine.

583
00:25:02,080 --> 00:25:02,800
Speaker 2: Hit two oh nine.

584
00:25:02,880 --> 00:25:03,239
Speaker 1: Last year.

585
00:25:03,280 --> 00:25:05,560
Speaker 3: He had two oh nine while not even having a

586
00:25:05,600 --> 00:25:08,560
Speaker 3: thirty percent strikeout rate, which that's kind of wild in general.

587
00:25:08,760 --> 00:25:10,879
Speaker 2: Here's a semi positive not that there's a lot of

588
00:25:10,880 --> 00:25:11,800
Speaker 2: plate appearances to it.

589
00:25:11,840 --> 00:25:13,640
Speaker 3: But so far in spring training he has a ten

590
00:25:13,680 --> 00:25:17,440
Speaker 3: percent strikeout rate, so that has been exceptionally low. He's

591
00:25:17,480 --> 00:25:20,840
Speaker 3: hitting over three point fifty. I've seen him in the minors. Now,

592
00:25:20,840 --> 00:25:22,919
Speaker 3: he did this in those early stages of his career,

593
00:25:23,000 --> 00:25:25,160
Speaker 3: but then he kind of he really had like a

594
00:25:25,240 --> 00:25:27,760
Speaker 3: high push advancement. I mean, you know, he's twenty two

595
00:25:27,800 --> 00:25:29,960
Speaker 3: year old making it to the majors. But you know

596
00:25:30,000 --> 00:25:31,760
Speaker 3: he had like a rookie season where he hit two

597
00:25:31,800 --> 00:25:33,880
Speaker 3: fifteen and then he bounced back at three oh two.

598
00:25:34,119 --> 00:25:36,520
Speaker 3: You know, he has found ways to bounce back to

599
00:25:36,520 --> 00:25:38,439
Speaker 3: his batting average. But the problem is he may not

600
00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:39,159
Speaker 3: be more than a.

601
00:25:39,160 --> 00:25:41,600
Speaker 2: Two to fifty guy. What he's not is a two

602
00:25:41,680 --> 00:25:43,960
Speaker 2: oh nine player. He hit two oh nine. This is

603
00:25:43,960 --> 00:25:46,080
Speaker 2: similar to Ellie de la Cruz.

604
00:25:46,119 --> 00:25:48,480
Speaker 3: I want to point out Ellie de la Cruz the

605
00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:51,040
Speaker 3: last you know, whatever, it was I'm trying to mat

606
00:25:51,080 --> 00:25:52,479
Speaker 3: I think it was the second half of the season.

607
00:25:52,760 --> 00:25:55,879
Speaker 3: He hit like two oh three and still stole like

608
00:25:56,040 --> 00:25:59,000
Speaker 3: eighteen bases or something like that while hitting two oh three.

609
00:25:59,160 --> 00:26:02,280
Speaker 3: My point is Anthony Volpi hit twenty one homer still

610
00:26:02,280 --> 00:26:05,000
Speaker 3: twenty four bases while hitting two to oh nine in

611
00:26:05,040 --> 00:26:07,920
Speaker 3: a Yankees lineup. The upside is there. So expected batting

612
00:26:07,960 --> 00:26:10,560
Speaker 3: average was in the two thirties. I think you can

613
00:26:10,560 --> 00:26:13,760
Speaker 3: cut the strikeout percentage. We know he can steal. He

614
00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:17,200
Speaker 3: is a legit thirty thirty option. He gets the ball

615
00:26:17,240 --> 00:26:20,280
Speaker 3: in the air almost ten percent, barrel rate, over forty

616
00:26:20,320 --> 00:26:22,879
Speaker 3: percent hard hit. All of those things we like. It

617
00:26:22,960 --> 00:26:25,720
Speaker 3: is just about pitchment. He hit fastballs pretty well. It's

618
00:26:25,720 --> 00:26:28,879
Speaker 3: about hitting off speed stuff and doing it consistently. And

619
00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:30,720
Speaker 3: he has shown that in the miners before. I think

620
00:26:30,760 --> 00:26:32,760
Speaker 3: he can do it. He can hit two thirty or

621
00:26:32,800 --> 00:26:35,960
Speaker 3: two forty absolute breakout campaign and we're going to be

622
00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:38,439
Speaker 3: figuring out what do we do with this guy that

623
00:26:38,560 --> 00:26:40,800
Speaker 3: hit thirty thirty but has a lower than two to

624
00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:44,800
Speaker 3: fifty batting average. He's gonna teeter between a third and

625
00:26:44,920 --> 00:26:47,840
Speaker 3: like a you know, fifth round pick somewhere in there.

626
00:26:47,920 --> 00:26:49,959
Speaker 3: I think Anthony Volpi is going to break out, and

627
00:26:50,000 --> 00:26:53,359
Speaker 3: he did it while kind of stinking in his first year,

628
00:26:53,680 --> 00:26:56,800
Speaker 3: so improvement even better break him out.

629
00:26:56,680 --> 00:26:58,199
Speaker 1: I gotta say too. I'd love to see him get

630
00:26:58,240 --> 00:26:59,720
Speaker 1: moved up in the order too, because I think that's

631
00:26:59,760 --> 00:27:03,400
Speaker 1: a p Also, he's hitting an eighth spot right now.

632
00:27:03,440 --> 00:27:05,280
Speaker 1: I know Lemayhews at the top of this order, and

633
00:27:05,800 --> 00:27:07,800
Speaker 1: you know he's got to get hot in order to

634
00:27:07,920 --> 00:27:10,119
Speaker 1: justify and move up. But if he gets moved up,

635
00:27:10,160 --> 00:27:13,720
Speaker 1: he's gonna see so much better opportunities in terms of

636
00:27:13,960 --> 00:27:16,240
Speaker 1: guys having to pitch to him. Because we have Soto

637
00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:18,919
Speaker 1: and Judge behind you, you got to pitch to Anthony Volpi,

638
00:27:18,960 --> 00:27:20,960
Speaker 1: and I think that would go a long way to

639
00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:23,160
Speaker 1: his development. I wish the Yankees would take that leap

640
00:27:23,160 --> 00:27:24,600
Speaker 1: of faith, but it doesn't seem like, at least in

641
00:27:24,640 --> 00:27:26,520
Speaker 1: the beginning of the year. That's something I want to do.

642
00:27:26,800 --> 00:27:28,840
Speaker 3: One good thing, though, is if he is hitting nine,

643
00:27:28,880 --> 00:27:31,280
Speaker 3: this is one of those like top ten teams where

644
00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:33,200
Speaker 3: you're like, if you can hit nine and you've got

645
00:27:33,640 --> 00:27:37,200
Speaker 3: Judge and Soto kind of right behind you, the run

646
00:27:37,240 --> 00:27:40,400
Speaker 3: opportunities might present themselves in a pretty positive way.

647
00:27:40,400 --> 00:27:43,520
Speaker 2: He's got it, not press. But I mean again, he.

648
00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:45,359
Speaker 1: Is that guy. Though he is a grinder, he's a

649
00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:47,960
Speaker 1: very hard nosed player, and I think last year he

650
00:27:48,119 --> 00:27:50,200
Speaker 1: just pressed too hard, you know. I think that was

651
00:27:50,200 --> 00:27:50,720
Speaker 1: a big problem.

652
00:27:50,760 --> 00:27:53,399
Speaker 3: Also a little bit, I forgot to mention a two

653
00:27:53,440 --> 00:27:57,800
Speaker 3: point fifty babbitt. That's that's an incredibly low babbitt. That

654
00:27:57,800 --> 00:28:02,760
Speaker 3: that is an easy book, an identifier of positive aggression

655
00:28:02,880 --> 00:28:04,639
Speaker 3: that has to come up. And that's a lot of

656
00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:07,640
Speaker 3: what plays into the batting average. Coming up two thirty

657
00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:10,439
Speaker 3: seems like very reasonable and that's not super exciting. But

658
00:28:10,440 --> 00:28:12,439
Speaker 3: if we get to two forty two to fifty, Anthony

659
00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:14,280
Speaker 3: Volpi will be a problem.

660
00:28:14,720 --> 00:28:16,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, uh in a good way.

661
00:28:16,680 --> 00:28:18,400
Speaker 2: By the way, for these people on all the good ways.

662
00:28:18,600 --> 00:28:20,480
Speaker 1: Let's talk about the outfielders. Welsh, who did you pick

663
00:28:20,480 --> 00:28:22,400
Speaker 1: for your all breakout team of twenty four?

664
00:28:22,560 --> 00:28:24,960
Speaker 3: All right, I've definitely talked about these guys. My two

665
00:28:25,359 --> 00:28:29,280
Speaker 3: big breakouts. Number one Riley Green with the Detroit Tigers,

666
00:28:29,280 --> 00:28:31,639
Speaker 3: who hit two eighty eight and only ninety nine games,

667
00:28:31,680 --> 00:28:33,560
Speaker 3: eleven homer, seven stolen bases.

668
00:28:33,640 --> 00:28:34,120
Speaker 2: Last year.

669
00:28:34,359 --> 00:28:38,280
Speaker 3: He improved what did he improve? Launch angle, barrel percentage,

670
00:28:38,280 --> 00:28:40,680
Speaker 3: hard hit percentage, All of those improved really good, hard

671
00:28:40,760 --> 00:28:43,719
Speaker 3: hit forty six percent, double digit barrel Those are kind

672
00:28:43,760 --> 00:28:46,560
Speaker 3: of key metrics that I'm looking for, especially for players

673
00:28:46,560 --> 00:28:49,320
Speaker 3: that have, you know, exceptional skills and how can they

674
00:28:49,360 --> 00:28:52,160
Speaker 3: continue to improve. There you go, he's gonna barrel up

675
00:28:52,160 --> 00:28:53,920
Speaker 3: the ball. He's gonna hit it hard. That's gonna do

676
00:28:53,960 --> 00:28:56,760
Speaker 3: good things for you. His expected batting average was too

677
00:28:56,840 --> 00:28:59,520
Speaker 3: eighty seven. He hit two eighty eight. We know he's

678
00:28:59,520 --> 00:29:02,280
Speaker 3: gonna hit for high batting average. He had an almost

679
00:29:02,440 --> 00:29:06,959
Speaker 3: one fifteen max EV. So it all maintains that he

680
00:29:07,040 --> 00:29:08,840
Speaker 3: can hit the ball hard, and he does it on

681
00:29:08,880 --> 00:29:10,360
Speaker 3: a high at batting average, and you know what, that

682
00:29:10,600 --> 00:29:14,840
Speaker 3: usually equates to really great offensive results. The ballpark isn't

683
00:29:14,880 --> 00:29:17,560
Speaker 3: the best, but I do think that Riley Green can

684
00:29:17,560 --> 00:29:19,560
Speaker 3: push twenty five homers this year. I think he can

685
00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:23,120
Speaker 3: steal double digit bases, none of which are projected, but

686
00:29:23,200 --> 00:29:26,440
Speaker 3: projections are all over on games played. If he stays healthy,

687
00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:28,760
Speaker 3: I think he will be a force in that lineup.

688
00:29:28,920 --> 00:29:32,920
Speaker 3: And he is a smoking deal at one sixty three

689
00:29:33,040 --> 00:29:35,440
Speaker 3: and the thirty first outfielder.

690
00:29:35,520 --> 00:29:36,080
Speaker 2: My other one.

691
00:29:37,200 --> 00:29:38,840
Speaker 3: We actually said a little scare the other day. He's

692
00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:41,840
Speaker 3: another one of my favorite late targets. He's going off

693
00:29:41,880 --> 00:29:45,160
Speaker 3: at two hundred and the forty fourth outfielder according to

694
00:29:45,600 --> 00:29:48,920
Speaker 3: the average ECR. It's Jaren Duran who had twenty four

695
00:29:48,920 --> 00:29:51,520
Speaker 3: stolen bases last year. He had a high batting average,

696
00:29:51,560 --> 00:29:54,560
Speaker 3: hitting two ninety five. His expected batting average is almost

697
00:29:54,600 --> 00:29:58,440
Speaker 3: two seventy. Again, those those metrics, we're looking for forty

698
00:29:58,440 --> 00:30:02,719
Speaker 3: five percent hard hit rate. That's huge double digit number

699
00:30:02,760 --> 00:30:04,560
Speaker 3: on the launch angle over ten percent.

700
00:30:04,840 --> 00:30:05,680
Speaker 1: He improved.

701
00:30:06,120 --> 00:30:07,720
Speaker 3: He didn't improve year over year, he improved over his

702
00:30:07,800 --> 00:30:10,320
Speaker 3: rookie rookie year. Barrel percentage is still a little bit

703
00:30:10,360 --> 00:30:13,800
Speaker 3: too low, but his expected numbers are for the most part,

704
00:30:13,880 --> 00:30:16,160
Speaker 3: in line across the board. And here's the big thing.

705
00:30:16,520 --> 00:30:18,560
Speaker 3: I think he's going to steal like crazy this year

706
00:30:18,600 --> 00:30:21,200
Speaker 3: if he stays healthy. What did he have He had

707
00:30:21,280 --> 00:30:24,120
Speaker 3: twenty four stolen bases in one hundred games. I think

708
00:30:24,120 --> 00:30:25,920
Speaker 3: he's going to push forty this year. He has a

709
00:30:26,000 --> 00:30:27,680
Speaker 3: chance to hit high in the lineup, and those hard

710
00:30:27,760 --> 00:30:31,160
Speaker 3: hit numbers give him a really good baseline. Jaron Durant

711
00:30:31,160 --> 00:30:35,040
Speaker 3: at two hundred is lol. Overall, he is a fourth

712
00:30:35,120 --> 00:30:38,720
Speaker 3: to fifth outfielder on every single team. And you know

713
00:30:38,760 --> 00:30:41,560
Speaker 3: we're talking about Nico Horner who hits for a high

714
00:30:41,600 --> 00:30:45,200
Speaker 3: batting average and steals forty bases. Jaron Duran might put

715
00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:48,920
Speaker 3: up Nico Horner's numbers in the outfield and go one

716
00:30:49,040 --> 00:30:52,040
Speaker 3: hundred and fifty spots later. So gim me Jared Duran,

717
00:30:52,080 --> 00:30:52,720
Speaker 3: he's gonna breakout.

718
00:30:52,800 --> 00:30:55,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a huge difference there, all right, looking on

719
00:30:55,560 --> 00:30:58,960
Speaker 1: to the outfield for me, Jordan Walker, post hype, sleeper,

720
00:30:59,000 --> 00:31:02,640
Speaker 1: perfect opportunity one twenty four. Overall the thirtieth outfit are

721
00:31:02,680 --> 00:31:05,200
Speaker 1: going off the board, Jordan Walker. When you look at

722
00:31:05,200 --> 00:31:08,280
Speaker 1: the minor league numbers, I mean they're elite A three

723
00:31:08,360 --> 00:31:10,400
Speaker 1: ZHO one three eighty three five ten slash and eight

724
00:31:10,520 --> 00:31:13,640
Speaker 1: ninety two ops. Last year, you know, some ups and downs,

725
00:31:13,720 --> 00:31:15,560
Speaker 1: got sent down one point two, but over one hundred

726
00:31:15,560 --> 00:31:18,000
Speaker 1: and seventeen games he did it. Sixteen homers, hit two

727
00:31:18,080 --> 00:31:20,640
Speaker 1: seventy six. He held his own. A lot of the

728
00:31:20,640 --> 00:31:23,040
Speaker 1: problem too, was on the road, where his OPS was

729
00:31:23,040 --> 00:31:25,640
Speaker 1: one hundred points lower on the road as opposed to

730
00:31:25,680 --> 00:31:27,720
Speaker 1: at home. I'm home cooking. Things were good for him

731
00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:31,560
Speaker 1: when he went out, not so good away. So he

732
00:31:31,600 --> 00:31:33,280
Speaker 1: became a guy that he really had to manage a

733
00:31:33,320 --> 00:31:36,320
Speaker 1: little bit more in terms of Yeah, daily transactions or

734
00:31:36,360 --> 00:31:38,520
Speaker 1: weekly lineups. He had to really account for the schedule

735
00:31:38,560 --> 00:31:40,120
Speaker 1: when it came to Walker if you were paying attention

736
00:31:40,160 --> 00:31:42,440
Speaker 1: on how to utilize him. But I've comped this player

737
00:31:42,440 --> 00:31:44,600
Speaker 1: to Jermaine Die before. To me, that's the kind of

738
00:31:44,680 --> 00:31:47,160
Speaker 1: hitter he is, and Jermaine Die was a very useful

739
00:31:47,160 --> 00:31:49,840
Speaker 1: piece for a long time. I think this guy post hype.

740
00:31:49,880 --> 00:31:51,480
Speaker 1: I know last year you are very much a Jordan

741
00:31:51,520 --> 00:31:53,320
Speaker 1: Walker guy. I don't feel like I've heard you talk

742
00:31:53,320 --> 00:31:56,800
Speaker 1: about Jordan Walker once this year, so I want to

743
00:31:56,840 --> 00:31:59,320
Speaker 1: talk about him. But before I do, the other guy

744
00:31:59,360 --> 00:32:01,120
Speaker 1: that I have is jex Centchurio, who I know you're

745
00:32:01,120 --> 00:32:03,960
Speaker 1: excited about too. There is another dude where Look, when

746
00:32:04,040 --> 00:32:07,720
Speaker 1: you give a twenty year old kid an enormous extension,

747
00:32:07,760 --> 00:32:09,560
Speaker 1: he's going to play and he's gonna play every day.

748
00:32:09,560 --> 00:32:12,440
Speaker 1: He's a good defender. He is the deal when it

749
00:32:12,480 --> 00:32:15,000
Speaker 1: comes to power, when it comes to speed, when it

750
00:32:15,000 --> 00:32:18,000
Speaker 1: comes to all of those intangible qualities. We are in

751
00:32:18,120 --> 00:32:21,160
Speaker 1: a embarrassment of riches right now when it comes to

752
00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:23,400
Speaker 1: this young talent that's being filled through the major leagues,

753
00:32:23,680 --> 00:32:25,440
Speaker 1: and it's stunning to think that they're getting there at

754
00:32:25,480 --> 00:32:28,000
Speaker 1: twenty twenty one, twenty two years old, and they're making

755
00:32:28,040 --> 00:32:29,720
Speaker 1: an impact. I think Churio is just that next guy

756
00:32:29,760 --> 00:32:32,000
Speaker 1: to make an impact. It's a good ballpark factor for him.

757
00:32:32,200 --> 00:32:34,560
Speaker 1: He's got some lineup protection now that Hoskins is there

758
00:32:34,560 --> 00:32:37,080
Speaker 1: with Yelich, so there's some pieces. Contraras is there too,

759
00:32:37,120 --> 00:32:39,280
Speaker 1: so they've got some pieces around him. It doesn't have

760
00:32:39,360 --> 00:32:41,360
Speaker 1: to carry the offense. We'll see where he ends up

761
00:32:41,400 --> 00:32:42,920
Speaker 1: hitting in the batting order. That could have something to

762
00:32:42,960 --> 00:32:45,400
Speaker 1: do with it too, how far that breakout could be.

763
00:32:45,480 --> 00:32:47,880
Speaker 1: But again, I know I've got a couple of rookies

764
00:32:47,920 --> 00:32:50,560
Speaker 1: on this list, but I think these guys are not

765
00:32:50,640 --> 00:32:52,760
Speaker 1: just your average rookies. I think this is going to

766
00:32:52,800 --> 00:32:55,200
Speaker 1: be a very special year of rookies. Remember back in

767
00:32:55,240 --> 00:32:57,719
Speaker 1: the day, boys and girls, when you had your tops

768
00:32:57,800 --> 00:33:00,360
Speaker 1: traded nineteen eighty six and you look. Did all the

769
00:33:00,400 --> 00:33:03,440
Speaker 1: rookies in that class? I know Welsh doesn't because.

770
00:33:03,200 --> 00:33:04,880
Speaker 2: I put three years old, I don't remember that.

771
00:33:05,240 --> 00:33:07,480
Speaker 1: I remember it. It was Barry Bonds, and it was

772
00:33:07,520 --> 00:33:09,720
Speaker 1: Will Clark, and it was all these bo Jackson was

773
00:33:09,760 --> 00:33:13,960
Speaker 1: all these guys. It was a historic rookie class. Barry Bonds,

774
00:33:14,000 --> 00:33:16,520
Speaker 1: Bobby Benia, all those guys were in there that to

775
00:33:16,600 --> 00:33:18,680
Speaker 1: me could be this rookie class in twenty twenty four

776
00:33:18,840 --> 00:33:21,880
Speaker 1: is a special group. Welsh. So Jordan Walker, how come

777
00:33:21,960 --> 00:33:23,880
Speaker 1: no Jordan Walker noise for no I'm in.

778
00:33:23,960 --> 00:33:25,280
Speaker 2: I know there hasn't been a lot.

779
00:33:25,360 --> 00:33:27,160
Speaker 3: Well, one of the things I thought was super interesting

780
00:33:27,280 --> 00:33:31,280
Speaker 3: was Mason Wynn confirmed that Jordan Walker had gained twenty

781
00:33:31,320 --> 00:33:33,880
Speaker 3: pounds of muscle in the off season and that those

782
00:33:33,880 --> 00:33:37,640
Speaker 3: are you want that from a guy like that already

783
00:33:37,640 --> 00:33:40,640
Speaker 3: explosive batspeed. I remember he was here and there as

784
00:33:40,640 --> 00:33:42,160
Speaker 3: in a fall league, and my son got to meet

785
00:33:42,240 --> 00:33:44,120
Speaker 3: him and take a picture with him, and he was

786
00:33:44,160 --> 00:33:46,800
Speaker 3: in just pure awe of the size of Jordan Mark

787
00:33:46,840 --> 00:33:48,440
Speaker 3: because you know, I'm a big dude. We were just

788
00:33:48,440 --> 00:33:50,800
Speaker 3: hanging out together. You know how Jordan Walker like looks

789
00:33:50,840 --> 00:33:54,440
Speaker 3: down on me. And for a guy to get even

790
00:33:54,480 --> 00:33:56,840
Speaker 3: bigger with explosive batspeed, I'm all in.

791
00:33:57,080 --> 00:33:57,480
Speaker 2: I am in.

792
00:33:57,600 --> 00:34:01,720
Speaker 3: I guess I haven't really like signaled him as this guy,

793
00:34:01,840 --> 00:34:04,080
Speaker 3: but I'm drafting. I'm trying to draft him where I can.

794
00:34:04,120 --> 00:34:04,560
Speaker 2: I've got him.

795
00:34:04,600 --> 00:34:06,920
Speaker 3: I think inside the top one hundred. Think he might

796
00:34:06,960 --> 00:34:09,840
Speaker 3: have even worked with some drive line this year. I

797
00:34:09,840 --> 00:34:14,040
Speaker 3: think it's fantastic physically, he has all the elements to

798
00:34:14,160 --> 00:34:16,279
Speaker 3: just be a superstar, and I love the idea of

799
00:34:16,320 --> 00:34:17,920
Speaker 3: the added muscle to get the ball in the air

800
00:34:17,960 --> 00:34:20,280
Speaker 3: a little bit more, and he was making really good contact.

801
00:34:20,320 --> 00:34:21,560
Speaker 2: I love him and I love Cheerio.

802
00:34:21,920 --> 00:34:25,600
Speaker 3: I tweeted out that picture from before we went on

803
00:34:25,600 --> 00:34:27,040
Speaker 3: our trip, so like a week and a half ago,

804
00:34:27,080 --> 00:34:29,160
Speaker 3: when I was at Brewers Camp that I thought it

805
00:34:29,160 --> 00:34:32,800
Speaker 3: was interesting that Cheerio was working exclusively with Christian Yelich

806
00:34:33,000 --> 00:34:36,279
Speaker 3: and Garrett Mitchell South Frilic in that same session. The

807
00:34:36,719 --> 00:34:39,680
Speaker 3: entire day was on a backfield working at third base.

808
00:34:39,880 --> 00:34:42,839
Speaker 3: I really think Pat Murphy has made the decision that

809
00:34:42,920 --> 00:34:46,040
Speaker 3: Frillic is gonna be a third base slash super utail guy,

810
00:34:46,280 --> 00:34:49,560
Speaker 3: and they are putting Cheerio in that lineup. That's how

811
00:34:49,560 --> 00:34:51,879
Speaker 3: they have treated him his whole time. The question would

812
00:34:51,920 --> 00:34:53,880
Speaker 3: be did they fall in love with Joey Weimer. I

813
00:34:53,880 --> 00:34:56,440
Speaker 3: don't think so. I think Weimer and Garrett Mitchell can

814
00:34:56,520 --> 00:34:58,600
Speaker 3: kind of play up platoon, Cheerio can do it, and

815
00:34:58,640 --> 00:35:00,759
Speaker 3: south Frillick kind of comes off there. So I am

816
00:35:00,800 --> 00:35:04,440
Speaker 3: resigned to Cheerio making this roster and that's why I

817
00:35:04,520 --> 00:35:06,680
Speaker 3: ranked him like right inside the top one hundred, and

818
00:35:06,719 --> 00:35:09,040
Speaker 3: that might be even a little bit low. I will say,

819
00:35:09,080 --> 00:35:11,480
Speaker 3: though he struggled kind of most of camp and then

820
00:35:11,560 --> 00:35:13,440
Speaker 3: just had like a big day just the other day

821
00:35:13,480 --> 00:35:15,640
Speaker 3: and improved his batting average to three hundred. But I'm

822
00:35:15,680 --> 00:35:18,000
Speaker 3: with you on both of these players, and I think

823
00:35:18,239 --> 00:35:20,080
Speaker 3: I do think Cheerio is gonna break camp with the team,

824
00:35:20,120 --> 00:35:21,440
Speaker 3: and I think that it isn't a kind of an

825
00:35:21,440 --> 00:35:24,239
Speaker 3: exceptional group of prospects. We might look back when we go,

826
00:35:24,280 --> 00:35:27,960
Speaker 3: holy crap, we had Carter and Langford and Holiday and

827
00:35:28,040 --> 00:35:30,759
Speaker 3: Cam and Era, and we're gonna be blown away by

828
00:35:30,760 --> 00:35:31,360
Speaker 3: the results.

829
00:35:31,680 --> 00:35:34,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean just those guys alone, not to mention

830
00:35:34,120 --> 00:35:36,000
Speaker 1: if any of the other guys that were not, you know,

831
00:35:36,200 --> 00:35:38,520
Speaker 1: the guys in the peripheral of that, you know, prospect

832
00:35:38,600 --> 00:35:41,439
Speaker 1: top twenty, they might make him in Heston Kuerstad could

833
00:35:41,440 --> 00:35:43,359
Speaker 1: come up and make a big impact with the power

834
00:35:43,480 --> 00:35:44,680
Speaker 1: that he has. I mean, it's just.

835
00:35:46,520 --> 00:35:47,640
Speaker 2: We could still see schemes.

836
00:35:47,680 --> 00:35:51,040
Speaker 1: I mean it really, I'm telling everybody, twenty twenty four

837
00:35:51,120 --> 00:35:52,799
Speaker 1: might be the year of the rookie. Again. This is

838
00:35:52,800 --> 00:35:56,160
Speaker 1: a special group here. If they can get enough activity

839
00:35:56,160 --> 00:35:58,960
Speaker 1: at the major league level, let's get to the pitchers here, Welsh, Uh,

840
00:35:59,080 --> 00:36:01,080
Speaker 1: probably no surprise of the guys. We're going to pick

841
00:36:01,120 --> 00:36:04,160
Speaker 1: one of them. We have both selected. So let's talk

842
00:36:04,160 --> 00:36:07,279
Speaker 1: about Michael King, and let's talk about your second selection too.

843
00:36:07,600 --> 00:36:10,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, no chance, because I saw you put Michael King

844
00:36:10,080 --> 00:36:12,040
Speaker 3: on here. No chance I wasn't not putting them on here.

845
00:36:12,080 --> 00:36:12,239
Speaker 1: We are.

846
00:36:12,440 --> 00:36:14,960
Speaker 3: We're going hand in hand again into the sunset of

847
00:36:15,000 --> 00:36:18,280
Speaker 3: picks because I am I think still currently the highest

848
00:36:18,320 --> 00:36:21,239
Speaker 3: ranker on Fantasy Pros on Michael King two two three

849
00:36:21,360 --> 00:36:24,280
Speaker 3: era as a starter had an over thirty one percent

850
00:36:24,400 --> 00:36:26,240
Speaker 3: k percentage as a starter.

851
00:36:26,840 --> 00:36:27,879
Speaker 2: I love his pitch mix.

852
00:36:27,920 --> 00:36:32,880
Speaker 3: I've kind of found similarities in Pablo Lopez overall. Obviously,

853
00:36:33,360 --> 00:36:35,520
Speaker 3: you know it's used a little bit differently, but I

854
00:36:35,560 --> 00:36:38,839
Speaker 3: love the sinker, sweeper fastball overall mix a change up

855
00:36:38,880 --> 00:36:41,840
Speaker 3: with actually the number one whift pitch. And I'm pretty

856
00:36:41,880 --> 00:36:44,919
Speaker 3: optimistic that this team is not going to press down

857
00:36:45,080 --> 00:36:46,799
Speaker 3: on his inning. So, I mean, he was great as

858
00:36:46,840 --> 00:36:50,200
Speaker 3: a starter last year. You're going into a pitcher friendly

859
00:36:50,280 --> 00:36:53,760
Speaker 3: ballpark with good runs. You've got superstars, you've got Machado,

860
00:36:53,840 --> 00:36:56,880
Speaker 3: you've got Tatis, you've got a pretty good defensive infield

861
00:36:56,960 --> 00:36:59,240
Speaker 3: as well. You know, getting Tatis out of there committing

862
00:36:59,280 --> 00:37:02,120
Speaker 3: to Kim. I like who they are defensively, I think

863
00:37:02,160 --> 00:37:04,440
Speaker 3: Michael King. Let's see Michael King projections I think have

864
00:37:04,480 --> 00:37:06,279
Speaker 3: been like around one hundred and thirty. I think he

865
00:37:06,280 --> 00:37:08,320
Speaker 3: can push one hundred and sixty. They're going to depend

866
00:37:08,560 --> 00:37:11,239
Speaker 3: on this guy. And he had two pitches of a

867
00:37:11,280 --> 00:37:13,799
Speaker 3: thirty nine or higher fifth percentage and he was a

868
00:37:13,800 --> 00:37:14,760
Speaker 3: phenomenal starter.

869
00:37:14,880 --> 00:37:15,799
Speaker 2: Low walk rate too.

870
00:37:15,840 --> 00:37:18,239
Speaker 3: He lowered his walk rate as a starter, So I

871
00:37:18,239 --> 00:37:20,080
Speaker 3: mean the K minus walk percentage one of the better

872
00:37:20,120 --> 00:37:22,360
Speaker 3: in the league. I think Michael King he is the

873
00:37:22,400 --> 00:37:25,239
Speaker 3: epitome of the player that is ready for a breakout

874
00:37:25,480 --> 00:37:27,960
Speaker 3: because he doesn't fit that mold for a lot of people,

875
00:37:28,239 --> 00:37:31,000
Speaker 3: and he will be put into the starter role and

876
00:37:31,440 --> 00:37:35,720
Speaker 3: from a value perspective, one forty eight ADP forty fourth

877
00:37:36,000 --> 00:37:38,960
Speaker 3: starting pitcher. Overall, he's one of my favorites. And I

878
00:37:38,960 --> 00:37:41,080
Speaker 3: know you, you've you and me are on the Michael

879
00:37:41,160 --> 00:37:42,200
Speaker 3: King bandwagon.

880
00:37:42,440 --> 00:37:43,840
Speaker 1: Yeah. When I wrote up all the pictures for the

881
00:37:43,880 --> 00:37:46,160
Speaker 1: Black Book this year on Amazon, I gotta tell you, like,

882
00:37:46,200 --> 00:37:49,319
Speaker 1: I just felt like, you know, King was that standout guy.

883
00:37:49,360 --> 00:37:51,160
Speaker 1: You look at all the numbers when you're looking at

884
00:37:51,160 --> 00:37:54,520
Speaker 1: a trend, line for a pitcher. Everything's going in the

885
00:37:54,560 --> 00:37:57,400
Speaker 1: right direction. Michael King was not some schlub prospect too.

886
00:37:57,440 --> 00:38:00,279
Speaker 1: He was a big time prospect in the Yankee organization. Again,

887
00:38:00,320 --> 00:38:02,160
Speaker 1: it was it's always hard for these Yankee guys some

888
00:38:02,160 --> 00:38:03,920
Speaker 1: time to break into the rotation because there's so many

889
00:38:03,960 --> 00:38:07,520
Speaker 1: expectations that are there. And I think it's always commendable

890
00:38:07,520 --> 00:38:09,839
Speaker 1: when you have a guy that goes and just says, Okay,

891
00:38:09,880 --> 00:38:12,319
Speaker 1: well I'm gonna convert into reliever here and help the

892
00:38:12,360 --> 00:38:15,279
Speaker 1: team and be there. And we've seen guys flourish in

893
00:38:15,320 --> 00:38:18,040
Speaker 1: that role and become really good starting pitchers. Again, I've

894
00:38:18,400 --> 00:38:20,480
Speaker 1: brought up a few guys, but Johan Santana is the

895
00:38:20,480 --> 00:38:22,640
Speaker 1: one for me that always stands out of the last

896
00:38:22,680 --> 00:38:24,439
Speaker 1: of that ilk. But that used to be the way

897
00:38:24,520 --> 00:38:27,480
Speaker 1: guys broke into rotations. They used to be the kind

898
00:38:27,480 --> 00:38:28,920
Speaker 1: of you know, you'd have to do your time in

899
00:38:28,960 --> 00:38:31,120
Speaker 1: the bullpen and then you got your chance to be

900
00:38:31,200 --> 00:38:34,600
Speaker 1: a starting pitcher. And I think Michael King is just

901
00:38:34,880 --> 00:38:36,759
Speaker 1: locked and loaded, ready to go. He might be the

902
00:38:36,800 --> 00:38:38,920
Speaker 1: best San Diego Padre pitcher on the board in terms

903
00:38:38,960 --> 00:38:41,120
Speaker 1: of value, Like I don't even know if that's debatable

904
00:38:41,120 --> 00:38:43,799
Speaker 1: at this point. Potentially the other guy for you is

905
00:38:43,800 --> 00:38:46,480
Speaker 1: a Homer pick. So let's talk about Brandon Fought.

906
00:38:46,560 --> 00:38:48,319
Speaker 3: Yeah, Brandon Fotch is too good of a deal. I

907
00:38:48,320 --> 00:38:50,759
Speaker 3: can't get over that. He's a two to eleven on

908
00:38:50,960 --> 00:38:55,000
Speaker 3: ADP the fifty seventh starting pitcher. I think he legit

909
00:38:55,120 --> 00:38:57,359
Speaker 3: can be a top thirty, top thirty five guy.

910
00:38:57,719 --> 00:38:58,919
Speaker 2: Here's an interesting thing.

911
00:38:59,080 --> 00:39:02,080
Speaker 3: From September on, he had an over ten k per

912
00:39:02,160 --> 00:39:05,480
Speaker 3: nine with pending the miney and I'm including the playoffs

913
00:39:05,520 --> 00:39:07,719
Speaker 3: by the way, So September on with the playoffs because

914
00:39:07,719 --> 00:39:09,919
Speaker 3: it went to the World Series, he had a two

915
00:39:10,160 --> 00:39:12,839
Speaker 3: or under walk per nine to go with that ten

916
00:39:12,920 --> 00:39:16,000
Speaker 3: k per nine. This was when he chanted, when Strom

917
00:39:16,040 --> 00:39:17,880
Speaker 3: had him move on the mound and then he was

918
00:39:17,920 --> 00:39:20,520
Speaker 3: going sinker fastball, sweeper with a little bit of change up.

919
00:39:20,719 --> 00:39:23,080
Speaker 3: But that over ten k per nine with two or

920
00:39:23,080 --> 00:39:26,000
Speaker 3: lower walk per nine. Of qualified pitchers, there were only

921
00:39:26,040 --> 00:39:28,759
Speaker 3: like six pitchers that did that that last season. And

922
00:39:28,760 --> 00:39:31,720
Speaker 3: they're all like amazing pitchers. By they're all the name Luis,

923
00:39:31,760 --> 00:39:34,800
Speaker 3: Castillo and Strider. You know, they're all the best names.

924
00:39:35,040 --> 00:39:37,160
Speaker 3: So my idea is, this is a guy that won

925
00:39:37,200 --> 00:39:39,239
Speaker 3: one hundred and eighty innings in the minor leagues. The

926
00:39:39,280 --> 00:39:43,600
Speaker 3: year before he found his improvement, he was phenomenal. Era

927
00:39:43,920 --> 00:39:46,440
Speaker 3: was into the low threes. He had over ten k

928
00:39:46,520 --> 00:39:49,520
Speaker 3: per nine September on into the playoffs, the most important time,

929
00:39:49,560 --> 00:39:50,680
Speaker 3: he stopped walking guys.

930
00:39:51,000 --> 00:39:51,680
Speaker 2: He's a home.

931
00:39:51,600 --> 00:39:54,000
Speaker 3: Run problem, but he's going to get all the innings

932
00:39:54,000 --> 00:39:56,920
Speaker 3: he can on a great defensive team with offensive support.

933
00:39:57,239 --> 00:40:00,160
Speaker 3: He is one of their top counted pitchers and he's

934
00:40:00,160 --> 00:40:01,840
Speaker 3: going to probably be in that number four spot. I

935
00:40:01,880 --> 00:40:04,319
Speaker 3: think Brandon Fought is just a crazy, big steal. The

936
00:40:04,360 --> 00:40:06,760
Speaker 3: breakout's going to happen, and we're going to be talking

937
00:40:06,800 --> 00:40:10,279
Speaker 3: about him in that same third you know, in that

938
00:40:10,360 --> 00:40:13,359
Speaker 3: thirty range of pictures, he's gonna change multiple tiers up

939
00:40:13,560 --> 00:40:15,399
Speaker 3: and we're gonna laugh. I think we're going to laugh

940
00:40:15,400 --> 00:40:18,200
Speaker 3: at him being like almost sixtieth.

941
00:40:17,640 --> 00:40:18,680
Speaker 2: Overall on starting pitchers.

942
00:40:18,680 --> 00:40:20,600
Speaker 3: So I know it's a homer. I had him last

943
00:40:20,680 --> 00:40:22,280
Speaker 3: year and it was kind of egg on my face

944
00:40:22,280 --> 00:40:24,479
Speaker 3: for a bit. I'm hopeful that that's going to change,

945
00:40:24,520 --> 00:40:26,839
Speaker 3: and I think the changes that they did with him

946
00:40:27,280 --> 00:40:30,480
Speaker 3: September on through the World Series is a proof that

947
00:40:30,560 --> 00:40:34,560
Speaker 3: this guy can be in the upper echelon of fantasy pitchers.

948
00:40:34,560 --> 00:40:36,840
Speaker 1: Now for me. The other guy's Bailey Ober at forty

949
00:40:36,960 --> 00:40:39,719
Speaker 1: five overall in terms of the pitchers, one fifty six

950
00:40:40,080 --> 00:40:43,400
Speaker 1: in adp Ober to me, really starting to settle in

951
00:40:43,480 --> 00:40:46,759
Speaker 1: nicely last year, very strong season for Bailey Ober and

952
00:40:47,000 --> 00:40:48,439
Speaker 1: you know, you start to look around, he said, Okay,

953
00:40:48,440 --> 00:40:50,880
Speaker 1: the ERI was three forty three, but the XCRI was

954
00:40:50,920 --> 00:40:54,640
Speaker 1: three six three, so not that far off. I just

955
00:40:54,680 --> 00:40:56,920
Speaker 1: feel like that Minnesota Twins rotation is loaded. I think

956
00:40:56,960 --> 00:40:59,040
Speaker 1: it's a great thing. Whenever you have young pitchers, they

957
00:40:59,040 --> 00:41:00,680
Speaker 1: can let him just kind of fly on their own.

958
00:41:00,680 --> 00:41:03,160
Speaker 1: They don't have to do too much, they don't have

959
00:41:03,239 --> 00:41:05,160
Speaker 1: to worry about being at the top of this rotation.

960
00:41:05,239 --> 00:41:08,200
Speaker 1: Pablo Lopez is that guy already, he has that gig.

961
00:41:08,480 --> 00:41:10,600
Speaker 1: Joe Ryan gets a lot of publicity, as he should.

962
00:41:10,600 --> 00:41:13,080
Speaker 1: But Bailey Over is a guy that I think is

963
00:41:13,200 --> 00:41:16,480
Speaker 1: kind of floating around right now, and I think, just

964
00:41:16,600 --> 00:41:19,479
Speaker 1: like Michael King, ironically, they're kind of going back to back.

965
00:41:19,640 --> 00:41:22,040
Speaker 1: It just feels like a no brainer pick to me

966
00:41:22,160 --> 00:41:25,440
Speaker 1: because it's upside with the win potential. Last year, one

967
00:41:25,520 --> 00:41:26,960
Speaker 1: hundred and forty four in things, one hundred and forty

968
00:41:26,960 --> 00:41:30,200
Speaker 1: six strikeouts, just twenty nine walks. The walk rate is minuscule.

969
00:41:30,280 --> 00:41:32,759
Speaker 1: If you keep the walks down, the hits low, you're

970
00:41:32,800 --> 00:41:34,959
Speaker 1: going to have success. The whip was at one point

971
00:41:35,000 --> 00:41:37,799
Speaker 1: oh seven last year, again one forty four in the

972
00:41:37,800 --> 00:41:39,719
Speaker 1: inning soda last year, he could easily get up to

973
00:41:39,800 --> 00:41:43,200
Speaker 1: one seventy five. That's huge. I think the win potential

974
00:41:43,280 --> 00:41:45,640
Speaker 1: is there for him too. Love the bullpen as well,

975
00:41:45,640 --> 00:41:47,120
Speaker 1: at the back end of this bullpen for the twins,

976
00:41:47,160 --> 00:41:48,759
Speaker 1: so I think there's a lot to like when it

977
00:41:48,800 --> 00:41:52,040
Speaker 1: comes to Bailey over If he does make thirty starts

978
00:41:52,040 --> 00:41:55,680
Speaker 1: this year, he's going to destroy the return on investment,

979
00:41:55,800 --> 00:41:59,280
Speaker 1: just absolutely obliterate it. Love the guy and speaking of

980
00:41:59,320 --> 00:42:03,840
Speaker 1: a bullpen and back ends of closer situations Andres Munos,

981
00:42:03,880 --> 00:42:06,399
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go back to the well again. Welsh knows.

982
00:42:06,440 --> 00:42:08,640
Speaker 1: I love this guy. Last year I talked about him

983
00:42:08,680 --> 00:42:11,400
Speaker 1: so much, and then last year start off with the injuries.

984
00:42:11,440 --> 00:42:14,960
Speaker 1: Eventually things did clear out, Seawald moved on and Munios

985
00:42:14,960 --> 00:42:17,880
Speaker 1: moved in. He is at one twelve overall, the thirteenth

986
00:42:17,880 --> 00:42:20,560
Speaker 1: closer going off the board. But this guy has the

987
00:42:20,600 --> 00:42:24,000
Speaker 1: fastball velocity. He's got the stuff to become a dominant closer.

988
00:42:24,040 --> 00:42:27,280
Speaker 1: So I think he's ready this year with a healthy offseason,

989
00:42:27,320 --> 00:42:30,160
Speaker 1: a healthy spring to really hit the ground running and

990
00:42:30,200 --> 00:42:31,800
Speaker 1: become the guy that I thought he was going to

991
00:42:31,840 --> 00:42:34,280
Speaker 1: be last year. So just kind of like Jordan Walker

992
00:42:34,440 --> 00:42:37,719
Speaker 1: Andres Munio. Sometimes we're a year early on a guy,

993
00:42:38,160 --> 00:42:40,080
Speaker 1: and I feel like I'm a year early on Munios,

994
00:42:40,160 --> 00:42:42,520
Speaker 1: a year early on Walker, but and then on Edward

995
00:42:42,600 --> 00:42:44,759
Speaker 1: Julian too, So I'm buying back into a lot of

996
00:42:44,800 --> 00:42:46,839
Speaker 1: these players. But I think twenty twenty four is gonna

997
00:42:46,840 --> 00:42:49,200
Speaker 1: be the breakout for those guys who's your reliever that

998
00:42:49,239 --> 00:42:51,120
Speaker 1: you're high on, that you think can breakout in twenty

999
00:42:51,120 --> 00:42:51,520
Speaker 1: twenty four.

1000
00:42:51,480 --> 00:42:52,840
Speaker 3: By the way, I like that Munyo's one. I was

1001
00:42:52,920 --> 00:42:55,560
Speaker 3: huge on him last year. I was worried about Brash

1002
00:42:55,640 --> 00:42:57,880
Speaker 3: taking over that job, but then Brash had this injury

1003
00:42:58,120 --> 00:43:00,600
Speaker 3: that probably is going to just allow Munya to run

1004
00:43:00,640 --> 00:43:02,040
Speaker 3: with it, So I love that. And they got rid

1005
00:43:02,080 --> 00:43:04,720
Speaker 3: of pre Lander Barrow, who they traded to the White Sox,

1006
00:43:04,719 --> 00:43:06,920
Speaker 3: so it's like all the options to take away from

1007
00:43:06,960 --> 00:43:09,560
Speaker 3: Munnos are just kind of fading. So that's a great

1008
00:43:09,600 --> 00:43:14,160
Speaker 3: one mine kind of simplistic into my bus territory. I

1009
00:43:14,239 --> 00:43:16,480
Speaker 3: come to the breakouts and I'm gonna pick Evan Phillips,

1010
00:43:16,520 --> 00:43:19,759
Speaker 3: who is the fifteenth closer going or if I'm sorry,

1011
00:43:19,760 --> 00:43:22,480
Speaker 3: fourteenth closer going off the board ADP One thirteen, whatever,

1012
00:43:22,719 --> 00:43:24,480
Speaker 3: But give me a Dodgers closer.

1013
00:43:24,520 --> 00:43:26,480
Speaker 2: Give me a Dodgers closer that they trust.

1014
00:43:26,520 --> 00:43:29,759
Speaker 3: We have seen more confidence come out of camp from

1015
00:43:29,840 --> 00:43:33,160
Speaker 3: Dave Roberts about Evan Phillips, who, by the way, wasn't

1016
00:43:33,160 --> 00:43:34,720
Speaker 3: giving up a whole bunch of contact.

1017
00:43:34,719 --> 00:43:35,319
Speaker 2: He did have.

1018
00:43:35,440 --> 00:43:37,880
Speaker 3: I mean, ex wOBA was like top ten percent against

1019
00:43:38,120 --> 00:43:40,520
Speaker 3: a strikeout rate right around the thirty was twenty eight

1020
00:43:40,520 --> 00:43:42,839
Speaker 3: point two k percentage, low walks, He had a really

1021
00:43:42,880 --> 00:43:43,400
Speaker 3: low era.

1022
00:43:43,560 --> 00:43:46,080
Speaker 2: Expected era was a bit up. But really, I.

1023
00:43:46,080 --> 00:43:48,520
Speaker 3: Don't even tell you all that stuff. He's with the Dodgers.

1024
00:43:48,719 --> 00:43:51,840
Speaker 3: He's gonna be the guy. If he falters a lot,

1025
00:43:51,920 --> 00:43:54,080
Speaker 3: they can go to Bruce Dharr and they do obviously

1026
00:43:54,080 --> 00:43:56,760
Speaker 3: have some options. But he has been great in spring.

1027
00:43:57,320 --> 00:43:59,960
Speaker 3: He's got the trust, and you've got the best off

1028
00:44:00,320 --> 00:44:03,040
Speaker 3: in baseball behind him, and there's going to be a

1029
00:44:03,040 --> 00:44:05,600
Speaker 3: lot lot of opportunities. So I love a closer with

1030
00:44:05,640 --> 00:44:08,920
Speaker 3: opportunities that's not inside the top ten. He will break

1031
00:44:09,000 --> 00:44:11,560
Speaker 3: into the top ten this year and probably be a

1032
00:44:11,719 --> 00:44:15,200
Speaker 3: stupid value. So Evan Phillips is my breakout closer all right.

1033
00:44:15,160 --> 00:44:17,600
Speaker 1: Just to run through the rosters for you. For the

1034
00:44:17,600 --> 00:44:21,400
Speaker 1: breakout teams, Welsh has Gabriel Moreno, Tristan Cassas, Nolan Gorman,

1035
00:44:21,480 --> 00:44:25,360
Speaker 1: Michael Bush, Anthony Volpi love that one, Riley Green, Jaron Durand,

1036
00:44:25,400 --> 00:44:28,720
Speaker 1: Michael King, Brandon Fott and Evan Phillips. I've got Logan o'hapi,

1037
00:44:28,840 --> 00:44:33,200
Speaker 1: Josh Naylor, Edward Julian Noelvee Marte Junior, Kemenaro, Jordan Walker,

1038
00:44:33,280 --> 00:44:36,880
Speaker 1: Jackson Curio, Michael King, Bailey Ober and Andre's Munio's. But

1039
00:44:36,920 --> 00:44:39,680
Speaker 1: we want to hear from you who are the breakouts

1040
00:44:39,719 --> 00:44:42,760
Speaker 1: in your mind in twenty twenty four. Drop your names

1041
00:44:42,840 --> 00:44:46,480
Speaker 1: the comments below. Tell us who you're drafting with fervor,

1042
00:44:46,520 --> 00:44:49,960
Speaker 1: with excitement. You just might win yourself a trophy Smack

1043
00:44:50,360 --> 00:44:53,200
Speaker 1: Championship belt while you're at it. Don't forget to subscribe

1044
00:44:53,560 --> 00:44:56,480
Speaker 1: to the YouTube channel. As Welsh's hat is looking deep

1045
00:44:56,520 --> 00:45:00,440
Speaker 1: into my soul right now, very unsettling. Don't get to

1046
00:45:00,480 --> 00:45:03,640
Speaker 1: do that. Ring the bell for notifications, and of course

1047
00:45:03,960 --> 00:45:06,200
Speaker 1: make sure you sink all your leagues over a Fantasy

1048
00:45:06,200 --> 00:45:08,799
Speaker 1: pros two to use all the draft software and to

1049
00:45:09,080 --> 00:45:11,680
Speaker 1: use all of the incredible tools to manage your team.

1050
00:45:11,760 --> 00:45:14,520
Speaker 1: To draft your team. The draft Assistant with Sink will

1051
00:45:14,560 --> 00:45:16,680
Speaker 1: help you get all the right players on your squad

1052
00:45:16,760 --> 00:45:19,680
Speaker 1: without a doubt, so you are ready and armed and dangerous,

1053
00:45:19,719 --> 00:45:22,640
Speaker 1: just like Welsh's hat for the twenty twenty four baseball season.

1054
00:45:23,000 --> 00:45:25,239
Speaker 1: That'll do it for us, because I'm gonna have nightmares,

1055
00:45:25,560 --> 00:45:27,200
Speaker 1: but the story of the game goes on. For the

1056
00:45:27,239 --> 00:45:30,800
Speaker 1: Welsh's hat, I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids.

1057
00:45:31,880 --> 00:45:32,680
Speaker 1: Nightmare for you all.