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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: The world's most important climate conference kicked off this week

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Speaker 2: in Baku, Azerbaijan, and this year it's all about money.

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Speaker 2: To go from the system that we have today to

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Speaker 2: a less carbon intensive systems is going to require money

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Speaker 2: and it's going to be more expensive.

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Speaker 1: You can't achieve anything if you don't have finance seats.

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Speaker 2: There is a wall of money there, but we just

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Speaker 2: need to find a way of deploying it. That was

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Speaker 2: Darren Woods, the CEO of Exxon, NGO, lawyer Jacinda Ngk

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Speaker 2: and former UK Minister Alak Sharma. They're just a few

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Speaker 2: of over fifty thousand people attending this year's UN Climate

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Speaker 2: Conference called COP. It's an annual meeting where delegates from

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Speaker 2: nearly two hundred countries come together to address one of

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Speaker 2: the most urgent issues of our time, climate change. At

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Speaker 2: last year's COP, members laid the groundwork to transition away

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Speaker 2: from fossil fuels and to reach net zero by twenty fifty.

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Speaker 2: So this year they need to decide who's going to

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Speaker 2: pay for that transition.

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Speaker 1: It's labeled the finance cop.

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Speaker 2: Akshat Rothy is a senior climate reporter for Bloomberg and

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Speaker 2: the host of the Zero podcast. This is the fourth

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Speaker 2: cop he's attended, but Akshot says the stakes of this

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Speaker 2: year's talks feel even higher than usual. And that's not

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Speaker 2: just because we're set to blow past the one point

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Speaker 2: five degree celsius temperatureized target outlined in the Paris Agreement,

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Speaker 2: or because twenty twenty four is set to be the

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Speaker 2: hottest year on record, or because the financial commitment needed

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Speaker 2: to decarbonize could be as much as trillions of dollars.

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Speaker 2: It's because, on top of all.

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Speaker 1: That, there is a Trump cloud somewhere in the sky

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Speaker 1: all the time during these negotiations.

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Speaker 2: Trump has been an antagonist to environmental efforts. During his

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Speaker 2: first term, he pulled the US out of the Paris

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Speaker 2: Climate Accords, and he's made no secret of his feelings

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Speaker 2: on fossil fuels. We have more liquid gold, well, I

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Speaker 2: guess we have more liquid goal than any country in

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Speaker 2: the world, more than Saudi Arabia, we have more than Russia.

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Speaker 2: It's this kind of rhetoric that has delegates concerned and

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Speaker 2: wondering what a second Trump presidency means for the US's

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Speaker 2: commitment to climate goals and to the Earth's future. This

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Speaker 2: is the big take from Bloomberg News. I'm Sarah Holder

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Speaker 2: today on the show Inside COP twenty nine after a

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Speaker 2: Trump win, how the world will calculate the cost of

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Speaker 2: fighting climate change and decide who's footing the bill. Okshot

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Speaker 2: Rathi has been on the ground in Baku since COP

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Speaker 2: twenty nine kicked off there earlier this week. He's trying

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Speaker 2: to get the pulse on how negotiations over climate financing

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Speaker 2: are going and how global tensions are influencing the talks.

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Speaker 2: So he's speaking to people there from vegan activists.

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Speaker 1: We are here to promote vegan because this is the

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Speaker 1: solution for global army.

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Speaker 2: Your excellences to Muktar Babayev, the oil executive who's currently

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Speaker 2: the president of COP.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to Azerbaijan. Welcome to COP twenty nine.

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Speaker 2: That's Babayev, a CoP's opening ceremony in his home country

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Speaker 2: of Azerbaijan, a location that's been raising some eyebrows.

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Speaker 1: Azerbaijan is a petro state. Ninety percent of its exports

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Speaker 1: are oil and gas. Isn't that attention, certainly, but it's

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Speaker 1: also part of the process. You warned. Even the countries

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Speaker 1: that have fossil fuels to be a part of climate

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Speaker 1: action because it's a global problem, in every country has

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Speaker 1: to do its bit.

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Speaker 2: The negotiations happening at this year's cop revolve around what

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Speaker 2: responsibility the country's richest economies have to help smaller economies

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Speaker 2: adapt to a warming world. And by the time COP

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Speaker 2: twenty nine is over, there are two main things that

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Speaker 2: delegates need to decide.

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Speaker 1: The first one is called Article six, and it's about

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Speaker 1: creating a carbon market where say a country like Indonesia,

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Speaker 1: which has a lot of forests, could be producing carbon

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Speaker 1: credits and be selling them to Norway, which produces a

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Speaker 1: lot of oil and has emissions. That would allow money

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Speaker 1: to go to Indonesia which it could use to try

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Speaker 1: and move its energy transition faster. That got signed off

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Speaker 1: at least half of it on the very first day

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Speaker 1: of COP and maybe countries and companies will start to

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Speaker 1: buy carbon credits from these countries.

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Speaker 2: Just after COPP members finalize some of the rules for

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Speaker 2: international carbon trading and made plans to launch a UN

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Speaker 2: backed carbon market, Saudi Arabia launched its own carbon trading market,

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Speaker 2: capitalizing on the new opportunity.

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Speaker 1: The second thing, which is a much harder thing, is

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Speaker 1: called the new collective quantified goal on climate finance. Sorry,

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Speaker 1: it's a big phrase, but that's the official phrase. And

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Speaker 1: all it means is what will rich countries contribute towards

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Speaker 1: helping poor countries reduce emissions adapt to the warming that's

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Speaker 1: already been caused. Because without that money, those countries could

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Speaker 1: not develop as much renewable energy and might end up

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Speaker 1: fossil fuels, which will exacerbate the problem. And the number,

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Speaker 1: which is going to be in the hundreds of billions

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Speaker 1: of dollars a trillions of dollars, is what is at

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Speaker 1: the heart of the contention over the two week period.

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Speaker 2: Well, how do they decide how much responsibility each country

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Speaker 2: has to shoulder.

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Speaker 1: There is no simple math here. It's not like you

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Speaker 1: put out a ten of permissions, so you are going

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Speaker 1: to have to pay so much money. It is very

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Speaker 1: much the hard work of diplomacy. You look at the science,

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Speaker 1: you say, clearly, rich countries have done the most. Now

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Speaker 1: you should start to show how you can help poor

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Speaker 1: countries manage that. Rich countries will say, look, we are

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Speaker 1: having problems back at home. There's a cost of living crisis.

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Speaker 1: Whatever the reasons might be, those will have to make

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Speaker 1: those excuses and then there will be a fight, and

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Speaker 1: that fight actually happens in like really boring text, legal text,

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Speaker 1: but boring text for you know, poets or literature readers,

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Speaker 1: but very important text. And the final thing is this

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Speaker 1: is a very weird experiment because the COP process only

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Speaker 1: works by consensus. That means all countries, not a single

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Speaker 1: country can disagree. All countries have to agree. Only then

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Speaker 1: you get a deal at the end.

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Speaker 2: What about the private sector? How much of the responsibility

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Speaker 2: will they take on.

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Speaker 1: The private sector is not directly involved in these negotiations.

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Speaker 1: It's very much a un process. But because the energy

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Speaker 1: transition and all these climate goals is trillions of dollars

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Speaker 1: of investments annually, there is no way that happens without

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Speaker 1: the private sector participating. That's why at every COP we

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Speaker 1: get not just government ministers but also company CEOs coming.

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Speaker 1: I spoke to the CEO of EGXON earlier this week

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Speaker 1: and he very much made the case that the US

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Speaker 1: should remain in the Paris Agreement, that Donald Trump should

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Speaker 1: keep the Inflation Reduction Act because for companies, it is

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Speaker 1: really important that the policies that governments set are stable,

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Speaker 1: are acceptable, and they have business certainty to go down

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Speaker 1: this energy transition. So private sector doesn't play a direct role,

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Speaker 1: but it plays a central role in delivering the goals.

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Speaker 1: The interaction between the two is always fascinating to watch.

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Speaker 2: Just how much money is needed to address climate change?

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Speaker 2: Is that a number you can share and quantify.

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Speaker 1: Yes, that number has been quantified, and there are estimates

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Speaker 1: of various kinds. So something like three trillion to five

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Speaker 1: trillion dollars is roughly the number that multiple estimates come to,

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Speaker 1: and that is investments all countries have to make towards

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Speaker 1: just reducing emissions, and today we make about two trillion

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Speaker 1: of that investment in clean energy. But there's a second

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Speaker 1: aspect to spending money, which is adapting to the warming

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Speaker 1: that's already been caused. There's already heat waves of extreme

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Speaker 1: nature happening. There is sea level rise happening. We've seen

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Speaker 1: floods in places like Spain very recently. There are droughts

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Speaker 1: in other regions, and those all have money figures attached

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Speaker 1: from the impacts. But there could be projects you could will,

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Speaker 1: like managing the flow of a river or a sea

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Speaker 1: wall that would allow you to avoid the impacts coming

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Speaker 1: your way, and that number can be in the hundreds

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Speaker 1: of billions of dollars every year, so all of it

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Speaker 1: it is a large sum, but it is always worth

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Speaker 1: remembering if we don't spend this money now, we will

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Speaker 1: have to spend even greater sums dealing with climate impacts.

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Speaker 2: After the break the Trump question how the US's president

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Speaker 2: elect could get in the way of global climate progress

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Speaker 2: at Future COPS and Beyond at COP twenty nine in Azerbajean.

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Speaker 2: This week, Bloomberg Senior climate reporter Akshat Rathi has been

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Speaker 2: reporting on how negotiations over the future of climate financing

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Speaker 2: or going. But halfway through the ten day conference, there

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Speaker 2: are still a lot of unknowns. One of the biggest

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Speaker 2: is how the US presidential election might influence things. So, Akshat,

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Speaker 2: there's still this big shadow hanging over COP and that

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Speaker 2: is Donald Trump. Can you tell us more about how

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Speaker 2: his leadership of the US might impact the country's participation

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Speaker 2: in Future COPS in meeting these eventual commitments.

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Speaker 1: In the past, Donald Trump pulled the US out of

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Speaker 1: the Paris Agreement, but he wasn't able to do very

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Speaker 1: much with it because there was a delay baked in

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Speaker 1: by the time he left. Joe Biden had been elected

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Speaker 1: this time around. When Donald Trump decides the US is leaving,

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Speaker 1: it'll take one year for the US to leave, and

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Speaker 1: then the US cannot directly participate in negotiations and influence

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Speaker 1: the outcomes until perhaps a future president wants to join.

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Speaker 1: The other thing that Donald Trump can do is start

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Speaker 1: to squeeze sources of finance that go towards climate, both

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Speaker 1: domestically through things like cutting down financing for clean energy

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Speaker 1: through the Inflation Reduction Act, for example, or globally through

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Speaker 1: multilateral development banks where the US is the largest shareholder,

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Speaker 1: and it could give a mandate to these banks that

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Speaker 1: they cannot anymore invest in climate. He could also take

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Speaker 1: money away from the UN system, which is something he

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Speaker 1: has attempted to do in the past. And the United

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Speaker 1: Nations is a very important body, but it only works

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Speaker 1: because all countries put in their contribution towards it, and

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Speaker 1: the US contributes almost the fifth of its budget. There

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Speaker 1: is also a risk that Trump might pull the US

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Speaker 1: out of the underlying Climate Treaty altogether.

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Speaker 2: Part of the point of cop is that all of

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Speaker 2: these country trees come together and have the shared commitment.

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Speaker 2: If the world's largest economy down the line is no

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Speaker 2: longer interested in fighting climate change, and if the US

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Speaker 2: will no longer be a leader on this, where does

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Speaker 2: that leave global efforts like.

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Speaker 1: Cop Look, there is no way to say it is

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Speaker 1: a good thing. The US has a responsibility as the

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Speaker 1: world's largest historical emitter and as the current second largest emitter.

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Speaker 1: If the US doesn't meet its responsibility, other countries will

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Speaker 1: feel like they might get a free pass. But then

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Speaker 1: you look at what happened when the US pulled out

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Speaker 1: of the Paris Agreement the first time. No other country left.

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Speaker 1: And that's because the energy transition is one that is

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Speaker 1: better when done collaboratively.

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Speaker 2: It's also because more countries are looking at the energy

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Speaker 2: transition as a good investment.

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Speaker 1: The price of clean energy has come down, the desire

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Speaker 1: for country trees to create competitive industries that would build

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Speaker 1: electric cars or solar panels has grown, and so the

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Speaker 1: US leaving. As Ali Zaidi, who's then National Climate Advisor

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Speaker 1: to President Biden, told us, the US will actually fall

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Speaker 1: behind countries like China and India in the very technologies

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Speaker 1: of the twenty first century, and that could actually be

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Speaker 1: economic harm to the US.

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Speaker 2: It would be economic malpractice to put US back in

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Speaker 2: the position we were four years ago, where we're in

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Speaker 2: massive deficit in the leadership of these technologies.

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Speaker 1: And so right now we don't hear as if any

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Speaker 1: other country is following the footsteps that the US might

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Speaker 1: be about to take. But there is a risk that

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Speaker 1: once the largest economy leaves, somebody might join the leaving party.

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Speaker 2: Akshat says that even at this tenuous moment for cop

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Speaker 2: and for the planet, there are some things bringing climate

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Speaker 2: activists hope.

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Speaker 1: Well, the biggest hope comes from China, which is a

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Speaker 1: weird thing to think about because China is currently the

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Speaker 1: largest emitter of greenha's gas emissions, has the most cold

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Speaker 1: power plants in the world, and produces almost thirty percent

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Speaker 1: of planet warming emissions. And yet it is also the

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Speaker 1: country that is deploying more clean energy than the rest

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Speaker 1: of the world combined. But I also get hope from

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Speaker 1: other countries, countries like India and Brazil and even Kenya,

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Speaker 1: smaller economies that see the potential for building clean energy

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Speaker 1: as the route to prosperity, not just because it will

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Speaker 1: help reduce climate change, but also because they will find

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Speaker 1: ways to turn that clean energy into economic growth that

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Speaker 1: will bring prosperity to their own people, and that perhaps

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Speaker 1: is the most hopeful note you can take when we

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Speaker 1: are almost certainly going to be facing many more and

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Speaker 1: more intense climate impacts over the next year.

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Speaker 2: And actually we've also been circling some of the challenges

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Speaker 2: facing COP that tensions that are playing out beneath the surface,

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Speaker 2: the disappointments or the knowledge that more work has to

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Speaker 2: be done after past cops. So I guess I'm just curious,

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Speaker 2: how much does this conference matter?

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Speaker 1: Why is it.

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Speaker 2: Important to keep convening every year and hashing this out?

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Speaker 1: Well, climate change is a global problem. It affects every

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Speaker 1: country everywhere. It is caused by every country everywhere, just

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Speaker 1: not proportionally because greenhouse gas emissions, once emitted, go into

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Speaker 1: the atmosphere and stay there. And thus there has to

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Speaker 1: be a global forum to address a global challenge. And

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Speaker 1: as frustrating as cops are, as long as cops are,

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Speaker 1: I find the event one of hope because it forces

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Speaker 1: all these people to come together. When I walk through

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Speaker 1: the COP venue, I see people wearing all sorts of dresses,

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Speaker 1: speaking all sorts of languages, And there is no other

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Speaker 1: place on Earth that I think you can experience that

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Speaker 1: level of diversity and that level of realization that we

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Speaker 1: are all in it together.

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Speaker 2: COP twenty nine officially ends on November twenty second, but

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Speaker 2: it could take longer to reach a deal. This is

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Speaker 2: the Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm Sarah Holder. For

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Speaker 2: further coverage of COP twenty nine and more reporting from Acshot,

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Speaker 2: head to Bloomberg dot com or the Zero podcast feed,

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Speaker 2: where you can also hear Oxshot's interview with Exon CEO

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Speaker 2: Darren Woods. This episode was produced by Jessica Beck and

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Speaker 2: audreyan A Tapia, who also fact checked this episode. It

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Speaker 2: was mixed by Alex Suguiera. It was edited by Stacy

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Speaker 2: Vinnicksmith and Emily Buzo. Special thanks to Mitha Lee Raw.

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Speaker 2: Our senior producer is Naomi Shaven. Our senior editor is

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Speaker 2: Elizabeth Ponso. Our executive producer is Nicole Beamster. Bor Sage

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Speaker 2: Bauman is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. If you like this episode,

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Speaker 2: make sure to subscribe and review The Big Take wherever

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Speaker 2: you get your podcasts. It helps people find the show.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for listening. We'll be back next week.