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Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast part of the Action

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Speaker 1: Network and proudly presented by BET three sixty five. I

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Speaker 1: am Chadmiman, chief Content Officer of the Action Network. Reminder,

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Speaker 1: we are live on YouTube. We are live on AMP.

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Speaker 1: The chat is open. Send us your questions. We got

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Speaker 1: a huge show today, and by we I do mean

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Speaker 1: me and my co host, my bff, my companion, my compadre,

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Speaker 1: professional better Simon hunter Loo.

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Speaker 2: So I'm in Hello hat Chad.

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Speaker 3: Looking forward to talking Kentucky Derby. My man.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna get to the Derby. We're gonna get to

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Speaker 1: a little bit of news that we created on the

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Speaker 1: show on Tuesday, some draft news that came off the show.

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Speaker 1: Before we get to that, I want to ask you

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Speaker 1: a question. What is the biggest parlay ticket, small amount

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Speaker 1: of money, big payout you've ever cashed.

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Speaker 4: I definitely had a couple of those. Like I was

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Speaker 4: in Vegas. I want a bunch of money. I blacked

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Speaker 4: out like partying with a bunch of buddies like most

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Speaker 4: people do, like in my early twenties, and then would

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Speaker 4: do it like a ten to fifteen dollars parlay of

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Speaker 4: all baseball games, A bunch of NBA games. I have

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Speaker 4: one where it was like I bet twenty nine won

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Speaker 4: like four thousand, which at the time was like I

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Speaker 4: was living on a Ramen noodles, Like I needed that

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Speaker 4: for Grant.

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Speaker 1: So I'm so glad you said that was the ticket.

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Speaker 1: Because Charlie Desterco, who's one of our fantastic producers at

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Speaker 1: Action Network, who also hosts the Gambling and Ramblin Show,

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Speaker 1: which you can see on YouTube with Tim Kaalanowski. Charlie

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Speaker 1: also was a great better bets a lot of baseball.

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Speaker 1: There's a lot of college basketball. He did some great

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Speaker 1: college basketball stuff for us during March Madness. Yesterday he

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Speaker 1: did a three player home run parlay with Hobby Bias,

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Speaker 1: Tommy Fan. Eric has fifteen dollars. Third inning, three d

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Speaker 1: home runs by those players.

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Speaker 3: Flyball deep right field, Mark Turning looking.

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Speaker 5: Out of here, three run Bob his first of the

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Speaker 5: year for Eric Oss and the curve ball whacked down

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Speaker 5: the left field line, right toward the corner, and it's

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Speaker 5: out of here. Tommy Fan with a line drive home

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Speaker 5: run just inside the left field foul pole that snaps

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Speaker 5: that over seventeen his third home run of the air

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Speaker 5: and the nets. Get one back immediately, Baias with a bolt.

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Speaker 2: Back left field.

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Speaker 5: Forget about it, that's his first.

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Speaker 1: Of the year. Got it back Wow, fifteen dollars. Three

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Speaker 1: home runs by those players paid thirty four hundred dollars.

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Speaker 1: Go follow Charlie in the Action Network app Charlie Desterco.

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Speaker 1: Also listen to Charlie every week on Payoff Pitch, the

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Speaker 1: MLB podcast from Action Network. The guys walking around with

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Speaker 1: just a glow today. I can't even believe he bothered

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Speaker 1: to come in. I asked him what he was going

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Speaker 1: to do with the money. He's like, I'm taking it

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Speaker 1: out of account and putting in my bank. Did the

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Speaker 1: right thing. I was smart.

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Speaker 3: You gotta pay taxes on that, Charlie.

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Speaker 1: See now I just screwed him, didn't I?

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Speaker 3: Yeah?

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Speaker 1: Hey, guess what reminder reminder to everybody? The Favorite podcast

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Speaker 1: All right, so listen, We're gonna talk Kentucky Derby today

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Speaker 1: with Mike Samich, who has been an Action Network contributor.

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Speaker 1: You can also find his work at racingdudes dot com.

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Speaker 1: Fun fact, his family is from Saint Louis and Chicago

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Speaker 1: as his mind. But before we do that, Simon, on Tuesday,

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Speaker 1: we were talking about the draft you talked about, we

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Speaker 1: talked about the Atlanta Falcons and you casually mentioned, and

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Speaker 1: I probably should have followed up more deeply, that the

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Speaker 1: Falcons pursued and nearly acquired Kyler Murray and then Ryan

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Speaker 1: Tannehal in separtrate attempts, but the deals fell through. This

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Speaker 1: is of course blown up on social media after Connor Powers,

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Speaker 1: another one of our eight teammates on our social team,

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Speaker 1: also the huge Falcons fan. I'm not going to say

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Speaker 1: a huge Falcons fan, because he kind of is the fan.

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Speaker 1: He posted it. Give us more details on this. As

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Speaker 1: comfortable as you are with talking about the sourcing, I

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Speaker 1: do feel we owe it to listeners to dig a

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Speaker 1: little bit deeper before we get to Mike and talking

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Speaker 1: about the Derby. What we can reveal about this rumor

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Speaker 1: to bring in some credibility.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I would say, first off, don't be so attached

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Speaker 3: to your players.

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Speaker 4: This is a business. Everything's business mindset. So people that

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Speaker 4: think the Cardinals are a little to Kyler Murray. You

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Speaker 4: have a new GM and a new head coach, neither

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Speaker 4: of which brought in Kyler Murray or gave him all

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Speaker 4: that money. So right there, that's your basis point. I

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Speaker 4: would say most people, especially in the industry, know that

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Speaker 4: that's a short life right there. Kyler has done nothing

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Speaker 4: to prove they deserves their long term plan. I mean,

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Speaker 4: the guy had well one playoff start and he got

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Speaker 4: blown out.

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Speaker 3: It's it's one of those where I get why.

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Speaker 4: Arizona fans got a little upset, but it doesn't make

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Speaker 4: sense why Falcons fans got upset. I don't know why

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Speaker 4: they're all in on this Conritter. You don't have a

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Speaker 4: starting quarterback on your roster right now, Falcons. So to me,

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Speaker 4: if people are like, how how'd you get this info?

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Speaker 4: Same way I got the b John Robinson, there's leaks

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Speaker 4: within the Falcons organization. So to me, I would say

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Speaker 4: the most shocking part would be that people are so

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Speaker 4: shocked by it where I think Vegas has kind of

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Speaker 4: built this into the line. We've seen a lot of

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Speaker 4: books now move Arizona's win total to four and a half.

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Speaker 4: That's really low, Chad, you know how low that is.

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Speaker 4: I think last year the two teams the Texans at

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Speaker 4: four and a half exactly. So that's that's where the

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Speaker 4: books are putting you with the Texans. So to me, Kyler,

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Speaker 4: the only thing that's stopping it. We talked about was

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Speaker 4: the money. Now I get the dead cap money thing.

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Speaker 4: That's a worrisome to a lot of people. The team

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Speaker 4: that number one cap all football last year, I think

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Speaker 4: it was over forty million was the Falcons for Matt

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Speaker 4: Ryan last year, so you know, yes, that's a huge number.

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Speaker 4: You go for the year before that, it was thirty

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Speaker 4: five million to the Eagles with Carson Wentz. Again, that's

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Speaker 4: a big number. It doesn't really matter to these teams.

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Speaker 4: The dead cat numbers don't really matter. It's yeah, it

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Speaker 4: sucks for a year, maybe two years, but that's it.

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Speaker 4: Then you have your franchise quarterbacker moving on. It doesn't

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Speaker 4: really matter.

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Speaker 3: So to me, my old point of that was just

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Speaker 3: to put a little bit.

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Speaker 4: Of money on the Falcons. I think people don't understand

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Speaker 4: the Falcons, their ownership, their GM. A lot of them

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Speaker 4: were thinking, we're in win now mode. We have a

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Speaker 4: weak division, we have a really good offensive weapons. We

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Speaker 4: think we could win this division. Why wouldn't they try.

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Speaker 3: To do that. This is a team that's been to

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Speaker 3: the playoffs what twice in ten years?

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Speaker 4: They made it to a Super Bowl when they won

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Speaker 4: eleven to five, then the following year they got knocked

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Speaker 4: down in the first round.

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Speaker 3: By the Eagles and the wild card.

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Speaker 4: So I think the fans are hungry, and just like

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Speaker 4: their front office and the ownership's hungry. I mean, Arthur

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Speaker 4: blank is watch in his eighties. It's an old man.

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Speaker 4: So I get the Falcons want to believe in that

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Speaker 4: they have a starting quarterback on their roster.

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Speaker 3: You don't, you have no one proving I mean Heinike

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Speaker 3: is the backup.

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Speaker 4: Yes, I'm sure you could come in and win a

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Speaker 4: couple of games. That's nothing compared to what Kyler could

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Speaker 4: do for that team, or even Tannel. Look for that matter,

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Speaker 4: I know Tannel is old. He'll be thirty five this

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Speaker 4: upcoming season. I still think you have Arthur Smith as

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Speaker 4: your head coach, who gave him them their best season

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Speaker 4: ever with Tannehill, right, Tannehill played out of this world

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Speaker 4: with him when he played in Tennessee. That just made

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Speaker 4: sense as a fit. Now, the whole wrinkle on this

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Speaker 4: whole talk of this trade, this is all about c J.

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Speaker 3: Stroud. I think people don't understand this was all about

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Speaker 3: the c J. Stroud.

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Speaker 4: So as soon as he went to two to Houston,

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Speaker 4: that kind of threw a wrinkle into all these different

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Speaker 4: trades that were on the table. So I get what

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Speaker 4: people lost their minds about. I mean, it's a slow

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Speaker 4: news day, Chad, and people love talking football, but I

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Speaker 4: was honestly shocked about how people just can't see it happening.

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Speaker 4: To me, if it's middle of August and this trade

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Speaker 4: does go through, I don't think people have the fans

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Speaker 4: of the show or I will be shocked, just because

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Speaker 4: this has now been in works for multiple months.

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Speaker 3: So time will tell Chaen.

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Speaker 4: If we're sitting here next year and Kyler Murray is

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Speaker 4: on the Falcons, I'm still going to take a victory

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Speaker 4: lap just because that was the first one to really

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Speaker 4: break it.

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Speaker 3: So time will tell. I get it. People are skeptical.

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Speaker 3: I don't say things just to say things.

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Speaker 4: There is no benefit to saying that, so to me,

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Speaker 4: time will tell with this one, and I do believe,

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Speaker 4: maybe not this year, but I do believe Kyler Murray

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Speaker 4: will be off Arizona Bend before the beginning of next season.

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Speaker 1: Here's what's interesting about the world we're in. I promise

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Speaker 1: Mike's holding on and I appreciate it, but this is

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Speaker 1: an important topic. And this has come up a couple

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Speaker 1: times on this show because both of us get access

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Speaker 1: to information by virtue of being public facing and having

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Speaker 1: people who are in the sports world be interested in

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Speaker 1: what we're doing. And that's a lot of times how

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Speaker 1: it goes right, Like people listen to the podcast, people

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Speaker 1: see someone on television, someone else who was a fan

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Speaker 1: who likes what they're doing, who works in sports, whether

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Speaker 1: it's for a team or a league executive, They reach

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Speaker 1: out there like Hey. People like to feel important and

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Speaker 1: act like they're in the know, or when they're in

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Speaker 1: the know, like to share information to feel good about

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Speaker 1: what they're doing. Leaks are everywhere, and as sports betting

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Speaker 1: becomes more a part of the conversation, there's going to

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Speaker 1: be more and more leaks to people like us who

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Speaker 1: are public facing for this kind of content, and you

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Speaker 1: know it. It was a conversation, a huge conversation a

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Speaker 1: few years ago for the Trey Lance and Mac Jones

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Speaker 1: draft and what schefter was putting out there and how

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Speaker 1: people could be potentially using that information to their benefit.

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Speaker 1: And I got to tell you, it's no difference than

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Speaker 1: to anybody who's tweeting out or sharing information about injury

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Speaker 1: reports or anything else. That information is active and people

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Speaker 1: use that information. And the fact that there is a

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Speaker 1: sports betting universe now that is covering this from a

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Speaker 1: position of opportunity doesn't change the fact that that's always

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Speaker 1: been the case.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it's it's I'm learning too, like as I get

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Speaker 4: a media and not to step on toes like I

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Speaker 4: baden mouth someone on Tuesday I shouldn't have and I

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Speaker 4: got reached out to about it from that NFL team

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Speaker 4: that was just like, I kind of forget it. I

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Speaker 4: always think, Chad, it's just me and you talking here.

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Speaker 4: We're without millions of people listening to the show. So

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Speaker 4: that's something I am adjusting to and learning. But I

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Speaker 4: will say this there, there's I'm always me butting heads

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Speaker 4: against people. I mean, that's just the way it is

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Speaker 4: in this business. And I said it for weeks that

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Speaker 4: I didn't believe Houston was taking a d N it's

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Speaker 4: number two pick. I kept saying, I thought Houston was

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Speaker 4: going to take a quarterback. I got beat up for

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Speaker 4: weeks about it because everyone's mocking against that. So that's

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Speaker 4: just my line of work.

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Speaker 3: Chat.

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Speaker 4: It's just like, if you're going to be the person

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Speaker 4: saying things that people haven't heard, they're always gonna go

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Speaker 4: with the sheep the herd, right, They're always gonna go

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Speaker 4: with the herd mentality of what everyone else is saying this.

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Speaker 4: So to me, that's the hardest part of my job

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Speaker 4: is I literally will come on here and I'll shoot

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Speaker 4: on your team for six months, and then me and

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Speaker 4: Chad are gonna bet on your team for six months.

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Speaker 3: Like that's kind of part of the deal.

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Speaker 1: That's where the money is. My favorite Peloton instructor, Emma

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Speaker 1: love Well says, you've got to be comfortable with being uncomfortable.

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Speaker 3: It's truth.

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Speaker 1: You know. What she says that I like progress not

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Speaker 1: perfection is that it love it. Attitude is altitude. I

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Speaker 1: said that to my wife the other day. I swear

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Speaker 1: to God, I thought she was going to punch me

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Speaker 1: in the face. I'm with it, man Mitchell. He's like,

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Speaker 1: how is this man married? It's a rough it's a rough.

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Speaker 1: Go for her. The one and forty ninth renewal of

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Speaker 1: the Kentucky Derby, the one hundred and forty ninth run

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Speaker 1: for the Road is It's happening this Saturday. My favorite

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Speaker 1: term in betting whisper Wednesday was yesterday. It's when everybody

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Speaker 1: around the backstretch at the Derby and in the paddocks,

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Speaker 1: and all the trainers and all the betters start whispering

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Speaker 1: about the horses who have been training well in the

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Speaker 1: lead up and in the last couple of days, some

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Speaker 1: odds might start to shift. Mike Samich, he's contributing to

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Speaker 1: action you can find at Racing Dudes dot com. Mike,

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Speaker 1: how are any buddy doing well?

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Speaker 3: Doing well? Here?

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Speaker 2: We got through Whisper Wednesday, and just like every other

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Speaker 2: rendition of this race, every single horse is training the

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Speaker 2: best they ever have. You gotta love it, all, right.

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Speaker 1: So explain to people a little bit more. Whisper Wednesday

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Speaker 1: is a phrase that I love. It's a little bit

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Speaker 1: of a Derby tradition. Explain to people what it is

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Speaker 1: and explain what we heard coming out of Whisper Wednesday,

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Speaker 1: take people inside, make them feel like they're getting something here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so Wednesday before the Derby is generally the last

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Speaker 2: day you're going to see workouts from your derby participants.

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Speaker 2: And that's exactly what happened yesterday. Eighteen of the twenty

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Speaker 2: starters currently in the starting gate worked over the Churchill

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Speaker 2: Downs track. And so when you have that large of

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Speaker 2: a percentage of the horses working, you're going to start

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Speaker 2: hearing things about who worked really well who didn't, because

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Speaker 2: this is one of the few days they all work

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Speaker 2: together at the same time. And when you talk about

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Speaker 2: workouts and horse racing, it's essentially the horses running anywhere

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Speaker 2: from four to six furlongs over the racetrack just to

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Speaker 2: kind of get their legs under them, to see how

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Speaker 2: much they liked the racetrack, how much they like the dirt,

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Speaker 2: because each surface is going to be a little bit

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Speaker 2: different depending on where you are. And so this year,

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Speaker 2: the horse that I heard the most buzz about was

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Speaker 2: a horse called Confidence Game, the four horse who has

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Speaker 2: kind of turned into the wise guy horse here over

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Speaker 2: the last two weeks or so, originally was on the

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Speaker 2: board in a fixed odd's market at twenty five to

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Speaker 2: thirty to one, was as low as twelve to one

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Speaker 2: at one point early over the weekend. So Confidence Game

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Speaker 2: got quite a bit of buzz. And then the other

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Speaker 2: horse that got a lot of buzz, actually a Philly

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Speaker 2: in the Kentucky Oaks South Lawn apparently out galloped Forte,

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Speaker 2: which is your favorite in the Kentucky Derby. And so

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Speaker 2: everyone's talking about South Lawn right now. Who's eight to

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Speaker 2: one on the morning line for the Kentucky Oaks on Friday?

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Speaker 1: Confidence Game now down to twenty to one Forte currently

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Speaker 1: of three to one. Angel of Empire eight to one.

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Speaker 1: For people who don't know, me and Matt Mitchell and

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Speaker 1: Simon were at the Breeders in Lexington in November. We

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Speaker 1: had a freaking blast. I don't think we won any races.

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Speaker 1: Of all the races we bet, I think there were

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Speaker 1: at the Breeders that day seven or eight races. I

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Speaker 1: don't think we won a single race. Is that accurate?

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Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell? That is correct. I mean we had a

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Speaker 1: great time.

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Speaker 3: A beautiful and expensive day, totally fuck.

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Speaker 1: It was gorgeous out. It was so fun to be

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Speaker 1: at the track. Simon and I at one point we

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Speaker 1: were like smack dab in the center. We got to

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Speaker 1: see a lot of people who listen to the favorites.

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Speaker 1: It was super fun to do it. It's hard not

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Speaker 1: to fall in love with horse racing when you are

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Speaker 1: up close. Mike, before I get into some of the details,

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Speaker 1: and before Simon and I start, you know, grilling, you

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Speaker 1: just explain a little bit of how you got into

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Speaker 1: it so people get a sense of, like, you know,

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Speaker 1: your credibility, so they don't come after you on Twitter

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Speaker 1: the way they come after Simon.

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Speaker 2: I'm sure they will. Anyway, I would have born into it, right,

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Speaker 2: I mean, I went to the racetrack for the first

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Speaker 2: time when I was three months old. So my dad

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Speaker 2: grew up in upstate New York, right by about an

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Speaker 2: hour outside of Saratoga Racetrack, and so he and his

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Speaker 2: dad bonded over going to the races. And so when

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Speaker 2: I was I was born in June that August, my

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Speaker 2: dad had me at the racetrack at Saratoga, and as

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Speaker 2: I grew up, it kind of just got instilled in me.

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Speaker 2: So I started as he gave me ten bucks when

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Speaker 2: I was four years old, said you can bet one

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Speaker 2: horse to show in each race for a dollar, and

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Speaker 2: that was my first betting experience. Kind of just kind

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Speaker 2: of consistently happened throughout high school where he grew me

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Speaker 2: up by playing games. That's what was what our relationship was,

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Speaker 2: and that kind of turned into horse racing. And so

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Speaker 2: here we are thirty five years later. It's still betting

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Speaker 2: the ponies and fortunate enough to have some pretty good

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Speaker 2: success on it. Finished pretty highly in a couple of tournaments,

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Speaker 2: the final table at the NHC last year. I finished

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Speaker 2: third in the Keelan Grade one Gamble this year. And

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Speaker 2: it's give me the opportunity to really cut my teeth

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Speaker 2: in this business and talk about horses.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I have so many questions, first of being,

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Speaker 3: how cool is your dad? I mean, that is a

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Speaker 3: cool dad right there, Chad, I'll tell you that much.

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Speaker 4: I mean, as someone who's been to the racetracks a lot,

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Speaker 4: I can't imagine taking a four year old there and

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Speaker 4: then giving them ten bucks and making bets with me.

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Speaker 3: But times are different back then.

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Speaker 4: Nowadays, I've spent way too much time not at the

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Speaker 4: horse track of the dog track. I was one of

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Speaker 4: those people went to the dog track a lot, so

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Speaker 4: I support it though I love it. It's like the

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Speaker 4: perfect handbook. How to become a sports better is starting

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Speaker 4: the ponies. It's one of those either most people you

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Speaker 4: start on the horses or you start playing poker. I

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Speaker 4: feel like that's most people's steps into you know, sports

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Speaker 4: betting in general.

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Speaker 1: How is Mike How is betting the Derby different than

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Speaker 1: betting other races?

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Speaker 2: Well, first off, betting the Derby is just an interesting

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Speaker 2: scenario because you have twenty horses in this field. There's

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Speaker 2: not a single race in North America that you're gonna

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Speaker 2: have twenty horses in the field again all this year.

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Speaker 2: So that immediately introduces variants, right, because each of these

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Speaker 2: horses is going to have to get a trip essentially

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Speaker 2: the best possible route from start to end. And with

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Speaker 2: twenty horses nineteen others in your way, you're going to

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Speaker 2: get more bumping than a normal race. The break matters

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Speaker 2: more than a normal race because if you don't break

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Speaker 2: out of the gate, well, you're going to get in trouble.

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Speaker 2: And then the Kentucky Derby is a mile and a

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Speaker 2: quarter we haven't had any of these horses go a

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Speaker 2: mile and a quarter yet in their career, so this

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Speaker 2: is the first time you're going to see these horses

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Speaker 2: going this long of a distance. It's the first time

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Speaker 2: they're going to be in fields with twenty horses. It

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Speaker 2: just sets up a lot of different variables, which you

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Speaker 2: would think, I mean, like I said, offers variants. But

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Speaker 2: the ironic part is we've had favorites fare very well

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Speaker 2: since twenty thirteen, which is the installation of the points era,

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Speaker 2: meaning that you can only qualify through specific preps for

400
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Speaker 2: the Kentucky Derby versus any type of Great one stakes.

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Speaker 2: It's kept sprinters out of the race and allowed horses

402
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Speaker 2: to be for the place to have much more success.

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Speaker 2: So eight of your last ten Derby winners have been

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Speaker 2: on or near the lead going into that backstretch.

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Speaker 3: Now, if you're like me and you're.

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Speaker 4: A casual better like, how do you bet if you're

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Speaker 4: only bet in one to two three races a year,

408
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Speaker 4: and how would you bet the Derby?

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Speaker 3: Would that well? For me?

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Speaker 2: It's all about your risk verse reward, right, If you're

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Speaker 2: looking for a lottery ticket, the Kentucky Derby is the

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Speaker 2: best race of the year To play the Kentucky Derby

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Speaker 2: Superfecta is a one dollar bet.

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Speaker 3: What was the winner last year? Tell the people who.

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Speaker 2: Won last year? Rich Rich Strike won the race last year?

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Speaker 3: What was he? Ninety nine to one, eighty.

417
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Speaker 2: Six to one? And the superfecta paid almost a million

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Speaker 2: dollars for a buck, So you can in the favorite

419
00:20:43,040 --> 00:20:45,399
Speaker 2: ran second and the fourth choice ran third, so you

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Speaker 2: just had to have that top horse and then all

421
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Speaker 2: of a sudden you fill it out and you can

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Speaker 2: make a whole lot of money. Fifteen and last seventeen years,

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Speaker 2: the Derby super effect has paid at least nine five

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Speaker 2: hundred dollars. Six of those seventeen years it's paid over

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Speaker 2: one hundred thousand dollars. So it is a great lottery

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Speaker 2: ticket to have because you have twenty horses, and because

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Speaker 2: the base denomination is a dollar, meaning every single combination

428
00:21:05,600 --> 00:21:07,920
Speaker 2: that you play it costs one dollar to play that combination,

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Speaker 2: you're not allowed to spread as much as if it's

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Speaker 2: a ten cent denomination, which is the general denomination in

431
00:21:13,680 --> 00:21:16,600
Speaker 2: superfective betting and horse racing. So it forces you to

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Speaker 2: shrink down the horses you use and creates massive payouts.

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Speaker 2: So there's a great lottery ticket version of this if

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Speaker 2: you want to go for the parlay esque play.

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Speaker 3: Right.

436
00:21:24,760 --> 00:21:27,080
Speaker 2: At the same time, it's one of the best win

437
00:21:27,160 --> 00:21:29,440
Speaker 2: betting events as well. So if you want a less

438
00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:31,280
Speaker 2: risky scenario and you want to say, okay, I want

439
00:21:31,320 --> 00:21:33,400
Speaker 2: to bet a couple horses to win, it's a great

440
00:21:33,400 --> 00:21:35,960
Speaker 2: opportunity to do that. Because you have a twenty horse field,

441
00:21:36,320 --> 00:21:38,560
Speaker 2: your favorite is going to be between three to one

442
00:21:38,600 --> 00:21:40,359
Speaker 2: and seven to two. Your favorite's not going to be

443
00:21:40,720 --> 00:21:43,000
Speaker 2: four to five, where you're winning eighty cents on a dollar,

444
00:21:43,520 --> 00:21:45,680
Speaker 2: So you're getting a better return from a favorite perspective.

445
00:21:45,720 --> 00:21:47,480
Speaker 2: And this year's going to be really interesting just from

446
00:21:47,680 --> 00:21:51,280
Speaker 2: a case study perspective as well, because rich Strike won

447
00:21:51,359 --> 00:21:54,800
Speaker 2: last year at such a big price. I would be

448
00:21:54,840 --> 00:21:57,919
Speaker 2: surprised if you have anyone who's between who's over sixty

449
00:21:57,960 --> 00:21:59,760
Speaker 2: to one this year on the board, right, And if

450
00:21:59,800 --> 00:22:02,080
Speaker 2: that that's the case, that means there is going to

451
00:22:02,119 --> 00:22:05,080
Speaker 2: be value on your favorite and on those horses that

452
00:22:05,119 --> 00:22:07,879
Speaker 2: are somewhere in that let's say five to fifteen to

453
00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:10,239
Speaker 2: one range, because they're going to be ignored if all

454
00:22:10,280 --> 00:22:12,560
Speaker 2: the money is pouring in on these long shots. So

455
00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:15,399
Speaker 2: you almost are playing no big if you're looking for

456
00:22:15,440 --> 00:22:17,480
Speaker 2: a middle type price to win and you think these

457
00:22:17,520 --> 00:22:18,920
Speaker 2: long shots are going to be over bet because of

458
00:22:18,920 --> 00:22:19,840
Speaker 2: the rich strike factor.

459
00:22:20,280 --> 00:22:23,160
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell, I wish you guys could see this. Matt

460
00:22:23,200 --> 00:22:28,119
Speaker 1: Mitchell taking his then fourteen month old son Monty to

461
00:22:28,280 --> 00:22:33,000
Speaker 1: the Arlington International Race Course in Chicago, outside Chicago where

462
00:22:33,040 --> 00:22:34,600
Speaker 1: the Bears are going to be building a new stadium

463
00:22:34,840 --> 00:22:39,000
Speaker 1: in twenty eighteen, fourteen months old, making a bet at Arlington.

464
00:22:39,359 --> 00:22:42,200
Speaker 1: Way to go, Matt Mitchell. You're bringing up Action Network

465
00:22:42,320 --> 00:22:47,720
Speaker 1: users ven your very own home. Mike. You're talking about favorites.

466
00:22:47,840 --> 00:22:51,240
Speaker 1: You're talking about the advantages of betting the Derby versus

467
00:22:51,320 --> 00:22:54,919
Speaker 1: other races. So we've got to dig in. Who are

468
00:22:54,920 --> 00:22:57,119
Speaker 1: the favorites, who are the contenders?

469
00:22:58,440 --> 00:23:00,399
Speaker 2: Well, look at the top three here. His favorite in

470
00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:02,600
Speaker 2: the Kentucky Derby is going to be Forte, sitting in

471
00:23:02,600 --> 00:23:04,840
Speaker 2: the fifteen post at three to one right now on

472
00:23:04,880 --> 00:23:07,479
Speaker 2: the morning line. Forte was your two year old champion.

473
00:23:07,640 --> 00:23:10,560
Speaker 2: Won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last year beat Cave Rockett.

474
00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:13,240
Speaker 2: Keenland has come back and won twice at Gulfstream Park

475
00:23:13,359 --> 00:23:16,040
Speaker 2: so far this year and really done nothing wrong in

476
00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:18,480
Speaker 2: either of those races. A lot of people are knocking him,

477
00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:21,160
Speaker 2: specifically because of his Florida Derby effort. And there's something

478
00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:23,760
Speaker 2: in horse racing called the buyer speed figure, which is

479
00:23:23,840 --> 00:23:27,320
Speaker 2: generally the most looked upon speed figure in racing. And

480
00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:30,439
Speaker 2: he's regressed from his Keenland number, So he got one

481
00:23:30,480 --> 00:23:32,600
Speaker 2: hundred at Keenland. He ran a ninety eight in his

482
00:23:32,640 --> 00:23:34,639
Speaker 2: first race back regressed to a ninety five in the

483
00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:37,680
Speaker 2: Florida Derby. But if you look at that Derby, he

484
00:23:37,760 --> 00:23:39,879
Speaker 2: was in the four or five path on the first turn.

485
00:23:40,440 --> 00:23:42,320
Speaker 2: In this is the Florida Derby, he was in the

486
00:23:42,320 --> 00:23:44,399
Speaker 2: four or five path on the first turn, four or

487
00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:47,119
Speaker 2: five path on the second turn, got blocked until the

488
00:23:47,119 --> 00:23:49,199
Speaker 2: final sixteenth of the mile of the race, and then

489
00:23:49,320 --> 00:23:51,760
Speaker 2: had to explode there and get to the wire first.

490
00:23:52,480 --> 00:23:54,879
Speaker 2: The number came back light because of how wide he

491
00:23:54,960 --> 00:23:57,120
Speaker 2: had to run the entire race and how little time

492
00:23:57,160 --> 00:23:59,520
Speaker 2: he had to accelerate down the lane. So a lot

493
00:23:59,560 --> 00:24:01,240
Speaker 2: of people are knocking him for a race that I

494
00:24:01,280 --> 00:24:03,840
Speaker 2: don't think was bad at all. So he's your favorite

495
00:24:03,880 --> 00:24:05,960
Speaker 2: right now three to one on the board. If he

496
00:24:06,040 --> 00:24:07,880
Speaker 2: floats up to seven to two or four to one,

497
00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:10,400
Speaker 2: I may be placing the wind bet on him, because

498
00:24:10,400 --> 00:24:12,400
Speaker 2: I do think four to one offers some value there.

499
00:24:13,119 --> 00:24:15,840
Speaker 2: Your second choice is Tapa Trice, who's the five horse,

500
00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:19,240
Speaker 2: also trained by Todd Pletcher, and this is an interesting

501
00:24:19,280 --> 00:24:23,080
Speaker 2: case study because Tapa Trice has never broken well. He

502
00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:25,520
Speaker 2: likes to essentially start two or three lengths behind the

503
00:24:25,680 --> 00:24:28,200
Speaker 2: entire field, and when you're in the five post in

504
00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:31,440
Speaker 2: the Derby and you don't break, you've got a world

505
00:24:31,480 --> 00:24:34,000
Speaker 2: of problems because the outside horse has come over to

506
00:24:34,000 --> 00:24:36,400
Speaker 2: the rail like a wave. Everyone's trying to get position,

507
00:24:37,480 --> 00:24:40,240
Speaker 2: and if Tapa Trice doesn't get some type of early position,

508
00:24:40,720 --> 00:24:44,120
Speaker 2: he's going to end up in seventeenth, eighteenth, nineteenth, twentieth

509
00:24:44,200 --> 00:24:46,280
Speaker 2: under the wire for the first time and essentially out

510
00:24:46,320 --> 00:24:48,840
Speaker 2: of the race if that happens. And so there's a

511
00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:50,879
Speaker 2: ton of value in my mind in fading him at

512
00:24:50,880 --> 00:24:54,160
Speaker 2: five to one because of his breaking issues. Your third

513
00:24:54,200 --> 00:24:58,800
Speaker 2: favorite is Angel Vampire fourteen post eight to one. He's

514
00:24:58,840 --> 00:25:01,440
Speaker 2: an interesting case here because he has won his last

515
00:25:01,440 --> 00:25:04,960
Speaker 2: two races, one at Louisiana Downs when the pace absolutely collapsed,

516
00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:08,200
Speaker 2: and then one of the Arkansas Derby when everyone got

517
00:25:08,200 --> 00:25:11,040
Speaker 2: a really good trip. An Angel Vampire has improved every

518
00:25:11,040 --> 00:25:14,280
Speaker 2: start here as a three year old looked phenomenal. At Arkansas.

519
00:25:14,680 --> 00:25:16,800
Speaker 2: The biggest knock an Angel of Empire going to be

520
00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:19,320
Speaker 2: coming from mid to back of the field, and that's

521
00:25:19,359 --> 00:25:22,280
Speaker 2: not generally a win style in the Kentucky Derby, especially

522
00:25:22,280 --> 00:25:23,720
Speaker 2: when there's not a ton of pace, and this year's

523
00:25:23,760 --> 00:25:26,119
Speaker 2: pace of the race and who's going to be upfront,

524
00:25:26,200 --> 00:25:28,080
Speaker 2: how fast they're going to go is one of the

525
00:25:28,160 --> 00:25:30,360
Speaker 2: murkiest we've seen in the last five or six years.

526
00:25:31,080 --> 00:25:33,000
Speaker 3: Ray, So what are you expecting in terms of pace.

527
00:25:34,359 --> 00:25:37,840
Speaker 2: Well, the torses that have speed drew the inside, which

528
00:25:37,880 --> 00:25:39,720
Speaker 2: should kind of force their hand. You should see the

529
00:25:39,760 --> 00:25:41,960
Speaker 2: two Verifying go early. You're going to see the four

530
00:25:42,040 --> 00:25:44,680
Speaker 2: Confidence Game go early. The six Kings, Barnes, the seven

531
00:25:44,720 --> 00:25:47,760
Speaker 2: Reincarnate all want to be upfront, but none of them

532
00:25:47,800 --> 00:25:49,920
Speaker 2: really want the lead. And that's where it's tough because

533
00:25:49,920 --> 00:25:51,760
Speaker 2: in the past years we've had horses who, hey, I've

534
00:25:51,800 --> 00:25:52,879
Speaker 2: got to be in the lead if I'm going to

535
00:25:52,960 --> 00:25:55,760
Speaker 2: run my best race. They then are forced to go

536
00:25:55,840 --> 00:25:58,120
Speaker 2: twenty two and change in the opening quarter, forty six

537
00:25:58,160 --> 00:26:00,680
Speaker 2: and change for opening half. We don't have any of them,

538
00:26:00,840 --> 00:26:03,480
Speaker 2: so it feels like a pace scenario where you're going

539
00:26:03,520 --> 00:26:06,080
Speaker 2: to see Verifying go from the two posts. I think

540
00:26:06,119 --> 00:26:08,680
Speaker 2: you're going to see Dermosotagatte go from the seventeen post

541
00:26:08,720 --> 00:26:11,879
Speaker 2: because he's so far outside. But I don't think Dermosote

542
00:26:11,880 --> 00:26:13,600
Speaker 2: Degatte wants the lead, so he's going to try and

543
00:26:13,600 --> 00:26:15,920
Speaker 2: get to verifying his hip and then slow down. If

544
00:26:15,960 --> 00:26:19,040
Speaker 2: that happens, everyone's going to slow down behind him, and

545
00:26:19,040 --> 00:26:20,680
Speaker 2: all of a sudden, you're going to see a quick

546
00:26:20,720 --> 00:26:24,399
Speaker 2: opening quarter, but a slow opening half because you want everyone.

547
00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:26,199
Speaker 2: Everyone's going to try and back up there because they

548
00:26:26,200 --> 00:26:27,840
Speaker 2: don't want the lead. They just want to be four

549
00:26:27,920 --> 00:26:30,199
Speaker 2: replaced and get positioned. So it's going to be very

550
00:26:30,200 --> 00:26:31,840
Speaker 2: interesting to see how that plays out. But I would

551
00:26:31,840 --> 00:26:33,640
Speaker 2: expect we're going to see somewhere around a forty seven

552
00:26:33,720 --> 00:26:36,200
Speaker 2: second opening half, which is rather slow for the Kentucky Derby.

553
00:26:37,200 --> 00:26:40,080
Speaker 1: It's amazing to think about those kinds of numbers as slow,

554
00:26:41,840 --> 00:26:44,040
Speaker 1: you know, and I love I also love listening to

555
00:26:44,840 --> 00:26:49,239
Speaker 1: guys who really know horse racing because the language is

556
00:26:49,320 --> 00:26:54,840
Speaker 1: so specific and look if you if if if you're

557
00:26:54,880 --> 00:26:58,240
Speaker 1: in the betting space, Simon like you and I are,

558
00:26:58,720 --> 00:27:01,560
Speaker 1: like Matt Mitchell is like everyone who works at action

559
00:27:01,760 --> 00:27:06,200
Speaker 1: is you listen to talk like the listen to people

560
00:27:06,240 --> 00:27:11,880
Speaker 1: like Mike talk about the speed rating or pace or

561
00:27:12,600 --> 00:27:16,760
Speaker 1: various other terms, and it just sounds like candy. I

562
00:27:16,840 --> 00:27:19,280
Speaker 1: just I fucking love it. I don't know anything about

563
00:27:19,280 --> 00:27:23,280
Speaker 1: it and I love it. Hooked it does it totally

564
00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:27,120
Speaker 1: does like it. Just there's a different tone, a different

565
00:27:27,880 --> 00:27:33,199
Speaker 1: rhythm to the language that is just a joy to

566
00:27:33,280 --> 00:27:37,480
Speaker 1: listen to. It's a little bit like poetry. Who are

567
00:27:37,520 --> 00:27:40,000
Speaker 1: the losers? Who are you tossing out of your card?

568
00:27:40,160 --> 00:27:42,159
Speaker 2: Well, for me, Tapa Trice is the biggest chuck. He

569
00:27:42,200 --> 00:27:43,720
Speaker 2: five to one. If I can get him out of

570
00:27:43,720 --> 00:27:46,840
Speaker 2: the Superfecta, that's huge because you're chucking out the second

571
00:27:46,880 --> 00:27:48,480
Speaker 2: favorite right out of the gate, who's a Todd Pletcher

572
00:27:48,560 --> 00:27:52,240
Speaker 2: trained horse. So I'm gonna avoid using Tapa Trice practical move.

573
00:27:52,320 --> 00:27:55,040
Speaker 2: The ten horse is coming out of sant Anito won

574
00:27:55,080 --> 00:27:58,639
Speaker 2: the Sandy to Derby last out. Has gotten a perfect

575
00:27:58,800 --> 00:28:00,960
Speaker 2: trip in his two races as a three year old,

576
00:28:01,119 --> 00:28:02,880
Speaker 2: never had to leave the rail in either of them.

577
00:28:03,119 --> 00:28:05,160
Speaker 2: The rail opened up for him in the Sannit de Derby,

578
00:28:05,160 --> 00:28:06,760
Speaker 2: so he was able to get the mile and a quarter.

579
00:28:07,119 --> 00:28:10,119
Speaker 2: But two horses Skinner and Mandarin Hero were both bearing

580
00:28:10,160 --> 00:28:12,720
Speaker 2: down on him later in that race, and his sire,

581
00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:15,960
Speaker 2: so his dad is a horse named Practical Joke. The

582
00:28:16,240 --> 00:28:18,159
Speaker 2: joke in the horse racing world. His friends don't let

583
00:28:18,200 --> 00:28:21,040
Speaker 2: friends bet practical Joke. Horses go in two turns. Well,

584
00:28:21,040 --> 00:28:22,560
Speaker 2: now this horse has to go a mile and a

585
00:28:22,640 --> 00:28:25,159
Speaker 2: quarter after barely getting a mile in an eighth at

586
00:28:25,200 --> 00:28:27,159
Speaker 2: Santa Anita. There's been a lot of buzz around them.

587
00:28:27,200 --> 00:28:29,520
Speaker 2: Ten to one on the morning line currently your fourth choice.

588
00:28:29,760 --> 00:28:31,960
Speaker 2: That's another horse. I think you can exclude from your

589
00:28:32,000 --> 00:28:34,919
Speaker 2: tickets to try and try and build the value by

590
00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:36,720
Speaker 2: checking out a couple of the favorites.

591
00:28:37,240 --> 00:28:39,680
Speaker 3: Good tenders. Who are you betting for the contenders?

592
00:28:39,960 --> 00:28:42,640
Speaker 2: So I respect Forte quite a bit, and I think

593
00:28:42,640 --> 00:28:45,040
Speaker 2: there's the hate for Forte has gone too far at

594
00:28:45,040 --> 00:28:48,480
Speaker 2: this point, and that's why I managed the owner. If

595
00:28:48,520 --> 00:28:50,720
Speaker 2: he does float up, I think you gotta play a

596
00:28:50,800 --> 00:28:54,320
Speaker 2: little bit of Forte. I'm gonna go with a little

597
00:28:54,320 --> 00:28:55,920
Speaker 2: bit of a long shot on top, though, give me

598
00:28:55,960 --> 00:28:59,160
Speaker 2: the number eight horse Maje at fifteen to one on top.

599
00:29:00,120 --> 00:29:01,560
Speaker 2: This is a bit of a stretch, But in this

600
00:29:01,640 --> 00:29:03,680
Speaker 2: type of race, I want to take a shot and

601
00:29:04,200 --> 00:29:06,400
Speaker 2: to me, Mage has not broken well in the last

602
00:29:06,400 --> 00:29:10,480
Speaker 2: two races and got absolutely atrocious trips. So if you

603
00:29:10,480 --> 00:29:12,640
Speaker 2: go back and you watch the Florida Derby, which fourt

604
00:29:12,720 --> 00:29:16,040
Speaker 2: A one Maje breaks last of a field of eleven,

605
00:29:16,480 --> 00:29:19,240
Speaker 2: goes four wide into the first turn, makes a massive

606
00:29:19,280 --> 00:29:22,040
Speaker 2: middle move down the back stretch, takes the lead after

607
00:29:22,080 --> 00:29:24,840
Speaker 2: going five wide to the second turn, and Forte runs

608
00:29:24,920 --> 00:29:27,320
Speaker 2: him down in the final sixteenth of a mile. So

609
00:29:27,440 --> 00:29:29,680
Speaker 2: with all of that that went wrong, Forte was a

610
00:29:29,720 --> 00:29:32,560
Speaker 2: length better than Maige, and yet Mage is fifteen to

611
00:29:32,560 --> 00:29:35,600
Speaker 2: one and fourt A is three to one. Now, Mage

612
00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:38,400
Speaker 2: hasn't broken well the last two races. That's a problem.

613
00:29:38,480 --> 00:29:40,760
Speaker 2: I realize that we need to get around it. But

614
00:29:40,880 --> 00:29:42,760
Speaker 2: in his first start he went twenty two and two

615
00:29:43,040 --> 00:29:45,440
Speaker 2: forty four and two for the opening quarter and a

616
00:29:45,440 --> 00:29:48,560
Speaker 2: half mile. He's got early speed. He just needs to

617
00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:50,719
Speaker 2: show that on Saturday. And if he does, and if

618
00:29:50,720 --> 00:29:53,240
Speaker 2: he's sitting in that first five or six, I think

619
00:29:53,240 --> 00:29:55,160
Speaker 2: he is a massive shot at winning the Derby at

620
00:29:55,200 --> 00:29:56,720
Speaker 2: a pretty big price of fifteen to one.

621
00:29:58,320 --> 00:30:00,960
Speaker 1: Why do you say you blame the owner, Simon? Is

622
00:30:01,000 --> 00:30:04,160
Speaker 1: there like an inside joke there? Forte is owned by

623
00:30:04,840 --> 00:30:09,520
Speaker 1: Mike Rippoli. Is there something going on that we don't know?

624
00:30:10,240 --> 00:30:11,840
Speaker 4: I saw an innyview with him. It just seems like

625
00:30:11,880 --> 00:30:14,680
Speaker 4: he's a complete nut job chat. So I'm hoping he does.

626
00:30:15,600 --> 00:30:17,960
Speaker 3: Yeah. I saw like he's like he seemed like a

627
00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:20,840
Speaker 3: real character, which to me, he.

628
00:30:20,040 --> 00:30:24,760
Speaker 1: Just Rappoli's like, Oh, you don't know the story of Ripoli.

629
00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:29,200
Speaker 1: He's like one of those classic self made bed at

630
00:30:29,200 --> 00:30:31,640
Speaker 1: all on himself billionaires.

631
00:30:31,880 --> 00:30:32,320
Speaker 3: I love it.

632
00:30:32,720 --> 00:30:35,160
Speaker 1: I love this guy. Ripoli is one of my favorites.

633
00:30:35,600 --> 00:30:38,040
Speaker 2: Very well known sport too. I won the Belmont with

634
00:30:38,040 --> 00:30:40,840
Speaker 2: a Philly last year. Has had a couple of phenomenal horses,

635
00:30:40,880 --> 00:30:43,440
Speaker 2: done very well at Saratoga, so he's well known inside

636
00:30:43,440 --> 00:30:44,000
Speaker 2: horse racing.

637
00:30:44,480 --> 00:30:46,479
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's been around for a while. This is probably

638
00:30:46,520 --> 00:30:48,840
Speaker 1: is like his best shot to win a Derby, right.

639
00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:51,840
Speaker 2: Oh, I can't think of a better one. I mean,

640
00:30:51,960 --> 00:30:54,560
Speaker 2: he's got the favorite and that's always a good thing.

641
00:30:55,240 --> 00:30:58,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, Oh, Simon, we should get Rippoli on

642
00:30:58,200 --> 00:30:58,840
Speaker 1: the podcast.

643
00:30:59,200 --> 00:31:00,400
Speaker 2: He'd be a fun guest.

644
00:31:01,000 --> 00:31:03,960
Speaker 1: He'd be amazing on this podcast. He'd be so much fun.

645
00:31:04,240 --> 00:31:08,720
Speaker 1: Let's work on that, Matt Mitchell, get it done. All right.

646
00:31:09,640 --> 00:31:13,320
Speaker 1: We've talked a little bit about Meije. We've talked about forte.

647
00:31:14,240 --> 00:31:17,920
Speaker 1: We talked about the losers measured at about fifteen to

648
00:31:17,920 --> 00:31:26,520
Speaker 1: one long ish odds. What about longer it's long shots.

649
00:31:26,760 --> 00:31:28,760
Speaker 2: Well, if you want to get a little crazy, I

650
00:31:28,800 --> 00:31:31,280
Speaker 2: don't think these horses can win the race, but I

651
00:31:31,320 --> 00:31:33,200
Speaker 2: do think you want to use them underneath if you're

652
00:31:33,200 --> 00:31:36,400
Speaker 2: playing trifectors or super effectors, meaning put them in the second, third,

653
00:31:36,440 --> 00:31:38,960
Speaker 2: and four spots in those bets to try and really

654
00:31:39,000 --> 00:31:41,880
Speaker 2: balloon the payouts. We'll start with the one horse hit

655
00:31:41,960 --> 00:31:44,720
Speaker 2: Show thirty to one on the morning line. Hit Show's

656
00:31:44,720 --> 00:31:46,760
Speaker 2: Coming Out of the Wood Memorial, which is the last

657
00:31:46,800 --> 00:31:49,560
Speaker 2: qualifying race up in New York up at Aqueduct, And

658
00:31:49,600 --> 00:31:52,120
Speaker 2: in that race there were thirteen horses. Hit Show drew

659
00:31:52,160 --> 00:31:54,440
Speaker 2: the number thirteen, so broke all the way to the

660
00:31:54,440 --> 00:31:56,840
Speaker 2: outsided one horse scratch. So broke out of the twelve

661
00:31:56,920 --> 00:31:59,800
Speaker 2: post of twelve horses, was five wide into the first

662
00:32:00,440 --> 00:32:03,040
Speaker 2: had a horse literally bump his hind end so you

663
00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:05,760
Speaker 2: can see him spin out a little bit. Then in

664
00:32:05,800 --> 00:32:09,600
Speaker 2: the second turn is forced four wide and down the lane.

665
00:32:09,680 --> 00:32:12,440
Speaker 2: It's basically carnival bumper cars with him in the middle

666
00:32:12,440 --> 00:32:14,800
Speaker 2: of two horses just banging off him the whole time,

667
00:32:15,320 --> 00:32:19,160
Speaker 2: still run second, still improves and has tactical speed.

668
00:32:19,200 --> 00:32:19,760
Speaker 3: In this race.

669
00:32:19,800 --> 00:32:22,280
Speaker 2: The one post is awful. It is the worst possible

670
00:32:22,280 --> 00:32:25,080
Speaker 2: place that you could draw on the entire field, but

671
00:32:25,160 --> 00:32:26,960
Speaker 2: it can hit the board still, and so at thirty

672
00:32:27,000 --> 00:32:28,600
Speaker 2: to one, I think hit Show is a decent shot

673
00:32:28,640 --> 00:32:31,240
Speaker 2: of hitting the board. The other big time price that

674
00:32:31,280 --> 00:32:34,840
Speaker 2: I'm interested in is the seven horse at fifty to one.

675
00:32:35,120 --> 00:32:38,080
Speaker 2: Reincarnate I think has a shot to hang on for

676
00:32:38,120 --> 00:32:40,600
Speaker 2: third or fourth. Here in this spot we talked about

677
00:32:40,600 --> 00:32:43,360
Speaker 2: the lack of pace. Reincarnate wants every bit of this

678
00:32:43,440 --> 00:32:45,560
Speaker 2: mile and a quarter distance. So that's a horse that's

679
00:32:45,560 --> 00:32:48,160
Speaker 2: going to be forwardly placed, that has the ability to

680
00:32:48,200 --> 00:32:50,320
Speaker 2: hold on and has the stamina to sit into that.

681
00:32:50,600 --> 00:32:52,840
Speaker 2: Let's say again third or four spot at a monster

682
00:32:52,960 --> 00:32:55,160
Speaker 2: number to really balloon those tries or soupers.

683
00:32:55,920 --> 00:32:57,520
Speaker 1: Now this is a massive field.

684
00:32:58,040 --> 00:33:00,760
Speaker 2: It's huge.

685
00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:03,400
Speaker 1: I'm looking at all these horses. What did you say?

686
00:33:03,400 --> 00:33:05,800
Speaker 1: It was eighteen eighteen horses in the field.

687
00:33:05,920 --> 00:33:08,360
Speaker 2: There's twenty in the field and there's three also eligible,

688
00:33:08,400 --> 00:33:10,400
Speaker 2: so if any of them scratch, you're going to see

689
00:33:10,640 --> 00:33:12,440
Speaker 2: someone fill in for them. So there will be twenty

690
00:33:12,440 --> 00:33:13,600
Speaker 2: breaking out of the gate this year.

691
00:33:13,960 --> 00:33:15,760
Speaker 1: When is the last time there were twenty coming out

692
00:33:15,760 --> 00:33:16,840
Speaker 1: of the gate of the Kentucky.

693
00:33:16,640 --> 00:33:19,920
Speaker 2: Derby last year. It's been consistent here where we've had

694
00:33:19,960 --> 00:33:22,720
Speaker 2: twenty year over year. Two years ago they actually switched

695
00:33:22,800 --> 00:33:24,560
Speaker 2: the gate so you have a single gate with all

696
00:33:24,600 --> 00:33:27,520
Speaker 2: twenty horses. Prior to that you had two separate gates,

697
00:33:27,520 --> 00:33:30,120
Speaker 2: one one through fourteen and the other fifteen through twenty.

698
00:33:30,440 --> 00:33:32,760
Speaker 2: So they tried to You saw fourteen and fifteen get

699
00:33:32,840 --> 00:33:35,479
Speaker 2: awful trips because they would just turn into each other

700
00:33:35,560 --> 00:33:37,080
Speaker 2: and bang into each other right out of the gate.

701
00:33:37,360 --> 00:33:39,200
Speaker 2: So they switched it up and have this one gate

702
00:33:39,240 --> 00:33:41,360
Speaker 2: of twenty wide now to try and make it a

703
00:33:41,360 --> 00:33:42,840
Speaker 2: little more fair for those two horses.

704
00:33:43,440 --> 00:33:47,160
Speaker 1: You talked about the floor to Derby, and that's sort

705
00:33:47,160 --> 00:33:50,440
Speaker 1: of known as you know, a race in which you

706
00:33:50,560 --> 00:33:55,680
Speaker 1: can start to track Derby contenders. But there's really nothing

707
00:33:55,800 --> 00:34:00,680
Speaker 1: like the Kentucky Derby. So I have heard other racing

708
00:34:00,760 --> 00:34:04,520
Speaker 1: experts talk about there's sort of a wall of sound

709
00:34:05,240 --> 00:34:09,399
Speaker 1: that the horses have to run through when they come

710
00:34:09,440 --> 00:34:12,200
Speaker 1: around the turn and they are in front of the

711
00:34:12,239 --> 00:34:18,279
Speaker 1: grand stand down the stretch, and it's overwhelming if you

712
00:34:18,480 --> 00:34:22,600
Speaker 1: are hearing that for the first time, which all of

713
00:34:22,640 --> 00:34:27,560
Speaker 1: these horses are. How do you incorporate horses reacting to

714
00:34:28,000 --> 00:34:30,719
Speaker 1: the circumstances into your handicapping.

715
00:34:31,200 --> 00:34:34,359
Speaker 2: Well, the circumstances are massive here, so there's a few

716
00:34:34,360 --> 00:34:36,680
Speaker 2: things different about the Derby and different places that you

717
00:34:36,680 --> 00:34:39,040
Speaker 2: can watch these horses to kind of try and decide

718
00:34:39,040 --> 00:34:41,480
Speaker 2: if there's anyone that you want to throw out because

719
00:34:41,520 --> 00:34:44,360
Speaker 2: of how they are acting. So, first off, this is

720
00:34:44,360 --> 00:34:46,600
Speaker 2: one of the few races where the Kentucky Derby, or

721
00:34:46,600 --> 00:34:48,520
Speaker 2: the horses that are running in the race are walked

722
00:34:48,560 --> 00:34:52,480
Speaker 2: down the track and then back through the Churchill Downs

723
00:34:53,640 --> 00:34:56,560
Speaker 2: stands essentially to go to the paddock and get saddled,

724
00:34:56,880 --> 00:35:00,319
Speaker 2: so they have to meet that massive crowd walking down

725
00:35:00,360 --> 00:35:02,319
Speaker 2: the track for the first time. The walkover is a

726
00:35:02,320 --> 00:35:03,839
Speaker 2: great way to look at it. If you see any

727
00:35:03,840 --> 00:35:06,640
Speaker 2: horses that are skittish, that are kind of jumping on

728
00:35:06,680 --> 00:35:08,759
Speaker 2: their toes already because we're still thirty forty minutes out

729
00:35:08,800 --> 00:35:12,080
Speaker 2: from the race here using energy, right, or if they're

730
00:35:12,560 --> 00:35:15,520
Speaker 2: verbally talking so you hear loud Na's things like that,

731
00:35:15,920 --> 00:35:17,840
Speaker 2: those are horses that are a little jacked up and

732
00:35:17,880 --> 00:35:20,000
Speaker 2: that are reacting to that crowd, and that's something you

733
00:35:20,000 --> 00:35:22,680
Speaker 2: can look for. The second one would be in the paddock.

734
00:35:22,920 --> 00:35:24,759
Speaker 2: Once they get into the paddock, this is going to

735
00:35:24,800 --> 00:35:27,200
Speaker 2: be more people that are around them in that paddock

736
00:35:27,280 --> 00:35:29,560
Speaker 2: than they have ever had in their life. And that's

737
00:35:29,560 --> 00:35:31,480
Speaker 2: a precursor to what they're going to see when they

738
00:35:31,480 --> 00:35:33,239
Speaker 2: walk back out and actually break out of the gate.

739
00:35:33,520 --> 00:35:35,480
Speaker 2: So if you have horses that are bucking in the paddock,

740
00:35:35,520 --> 00:35:37,960
Speaker 2: again being verbal in the paddock, it's called being studdish,

741
00:35:38,520 --> 00:35:41,360
Speaker 2: then that's another thing that I would look for and say, well,

742
00:35:41,400 --> 00:35:43,840
Speaker 2: maybe we're using a little too much energy. We're not

743
00:35:43,880 --> 00:35:45,719
Speaker 2: going to really see how they react, and so that

744
00:35:46,120 --> 00:35:49,839
Speaker 2: to me is an issue there. We can consistently see

745
00:35:49,880 --> 00:35:51,440
Speaker 2: this a problem with your horses that have won the

746
00:35:51,520 --> 00:35:54,800
Speaker 2: UAE Derby, because this is the most drastic difference. A

747
00:35:54,840 --> 00:35:57,000
Speaker 2: lot of these US horses they've run in front of

748
00:35:57,000 --> 00:35:59,200
Speaker 2: big crowds, nothing like they'll see in Kentucky, but they've

749
00:35:59,239 --> 00:36:01,640
Speaker 2: run in front of big The horses that come from

750
00:36:01,680 --> 00:36:05,319
Speaker 2: internationals races have not seen nearly what they're going to

751
00:36:05,320 --> 00:36:07,719
Speaker 2: see on the first Saturday in May, and so that

752
00:36:07,760 --> 00:36:10,040
Speaker 2: would be one reason why you've never seen a UAE

753
00:36:10,160 --> 00:36:12,759
Speaker 2: Derby winner come over and win the Kentucky Derby, and

754
00:36:12,760 --> 00:36:14,759
Speaker 2: that's what Dermosote Degate is going to try and do

755
00:36:14,840 --> 00:36:18,040
Speaker 2: today or Saturday from the seventeen post. Also never seen

756
00:36:18,040 --> 00:36:20,440
Speaker 2: a Japanese horse win the race. Oh by the way,

757
00:36:20,480 --> 00:36:22,480
Speaker 2: the seventeen post has never won the Derby either, So

758
00:36:22,560 --> 00:36:25,640
Speaker 2: a bunch going against Dermosote de Gote on Saturday.

759
00:36:26,320 --> 00:36:28,080
Speaker 1: I have one more question, Simon. I want you to

760
00:36:29,160 --> 00:36:34,160
Speaker 1: jump in, but do you feel like there is a

761
00:36:34,480 --> 00:36:40,520
Speaker 1: favored position that gives horses an advantage? And similarly, is

762
00:36:40,560 --> 00:36:44,799
Speaker 1: there a position that gives them a disadvantage or puts

763
00:36:44,840 --> 00:36:45,920
Speaker 1: them in a disadvantage.

764
00:36:46,280 --> 00:36:48,560
Speaker 2: So I'll start out with a disadvantage. The one through

765
00:36:48,560 --> 00:36:51,799
Speaker 2: four posts are atrocious. It's just it's a nightmare for

766
00:36:51,840 --> 00:36:54,840
Speaker 2: horses in those posts because you have twenty horses that

767
00:36:54,880 --> 00:36:56,600
Speaker 2: all want to get to the rail. That's what they're

768
00:36:56,600 --> 00:36:58,600
Speaker 2: taught every time. Their training is get to the rail.

769
00:36:58,920 --> 00:37:01,560
Speaker 2: That's their natural idea and their minds is to get over.

770
00:37:02,040 --> 00:37:04,479
Speaker 2: And when you have twenty horses that are all crunching down,

771
00:37:04,560 --> 00:37:06,520
Speaker 2: it can go really poorly for you. There's a horse

772
00:37:06,560 --> 00:37:08,919
Speaker 2: called non Agenda that was trained by Todd Pletcher two

773
00:37:08,960 --> 00:37:11,839
Speaker 2: years ago drew the one post was five to one

774
00:37:12,920 --> 00:37:15,319
Speaker 2: broke out of the gate in the top three by

775
00:37:15,360 --> 00:37:17,319
Speaker 2: the time across the first finish line because of how

776
00:37:17,360 --> 00:37:20,480
Speaker 2: many horses came over to the rail was in seventeenth.

777
00:37:21,000 --> 00:37:23,680
Speaker 2: It is just so hard to get good trips from

778
00:37:23,680 --> 00:37:27,280
Speaker 2: those inside posts. Ideally you want to be sitting somewhere

779
00:37:27,280 --> 00:37:30,120
Speaker 2: between the sixth and the twelve post. That's the Being

780
00:37:30,160 --> 00:37:32,239
Speaker 2: in the middle gives you the most options, and that's

781
00:37:32,239 --> 00:37:34,080
Speaker 2: one of the keys here or the twenty horse field

782
00:37:34,280 --> 00:37:36,880
Speaker 2: where it's really important where the jockey places the horse.

783
00:37:37,520 --> 00:37:39,680
Speaker 2: If you're in the middle and you don't break well,

784
00:37:39,800 --> 00:37:41,640
Speaker 2: you can decide where to go. You can use a

785
00:37:41,640 --> 00:37:44,279
Speaker 2: little horse, you can get over. If you're on the

786
00:37:44,320 --> 00:37:46,560
Speaker 2: inside and you don't break well, your race is over.

787
00:37:46,680 --> 00:37:48,399
Speaker 2: If you're on the outside and you don't break well,

788
00:37:48,440 --> 00:37:51,040
Speaker 2: your race is over. If you're in that middle group,

789
00:37:51,160 --> 00:37:54,000
Speaker 2: you at least have options of what to do depending

790
00:37:54,000 --> 00:37:55,759
Speaker 2: on the scenario that's placed in front of you. So

791
00:37:55,800 --> 00:37:57,840
Speaker 2: you want to be somewhere in that six to twelve range.

792
00:37:58,440 --> 00:37:59,880
Speaker 4: This is a little off be put just going on.

793
00:38:00,000 --> 00:38:01,960
Speaker 4: That's what you said about these horses not being used

794
00:38:02,000 --> 00:38:04,400
Speaker 4: to a loud noises. Do they train them for that, like,

795
00:38:04,440 --> 00:38:06,600
Speaker 4: do they have them race and just have speakers around

796
00:38:06,680 --> 00:38:09,560
Speaker 4: the track and loud noises blaring so the horses can

797
00:38:09,560 --> 00:38:11,400
Speaker 4: get adjusted to that. I know it sounds crazy, but

798
00:38:12,000 --> 00:38:13,400
Speaker 4: I think they do that for a lot of people

799
00:38:13,400 --> 00:38:15,960
Speaker 4: in a lot of sports, like I know football, if

800
00:38:15,960 --> 00:38:18,080
Speaker 4: they're playing away game the whole practice, they just turn

801
00:38:18,120 --> 00:38:19,920
Speaker 4: the music all the way up and make the make

802
00:38:19,960 --> 00:38:22,680
Speaker 4: them scream their lungs out right to have everyone hear them.

803
00:38:22,920 --> 00:38:24,080
Speaker 4: Do you do the same with the horse. I mean,

804
00:38:24,080 --> 00:38:26,880
Speaker 4: you're spending millions and millions of dollars on these horses.

805
00:38:26,880 --> 00:38:28,879
Speaker 4: You think they would prep them as best they can

806
00:38:28,920 --> 00:38:29,879
Speaker 4: before this big race.

807
00:38:30,480 --> 00:38:31,200
Speaker 3: You would think.

808
00:38:31,000 --> 00:38:33,160
Speaker 2: You'd bring the noise right because like you always hear

809
00:38:33,160 --> 00:38:34,920
Speaker 2: about that in the NFL, like, hey, we're going to

810
00:38:35,040 --> 00:38:37,400
Speaker 2: blast the speakers. We're going to make sure that everyone

811
00:38:37,400 --> 00:38:40,319
Speaker 2: gets acclimated to the noise they're going to hear on Sunday. Now,

812
00:38:40,360 --> 00:38:42,319
Speaker 2: they don't do it in horse racing. You'll you'll have

813
00:38:42,440 --> 00:38:44,279
Speaker 2: them run over the track. You'll have them be on

814
00:38:44,280 --> 00:38:47,160
Speaker 2: their track with other horses. They'll do something called schooling

815
00:38:47,239 --> 00:38:49,560
Speaker 2: in the paddock. Well they're you know, you've seen different

816
00:38:49,600 --> 00:38:52,759
Speaker 2: derby horses school this week at Churchill Downs when there

817
00:38:52,760 --> 00:38:55,040
Speaker 2: are crowds and walk around the paddock so that there

818
00:38:55,120 --> 00:38:58,919
Speaker 2: is some uh some acclimation towards the surface and toward

819
00:38:59,280 --> 00:39:01,080
Speaker 2: what they're going to do on Saturday. But there is

820
00:39:01,200 --> 00:39:04,240
Speaker 2: nothing like that where they're gonna just jack up the noise,

821
00:39:04,440 --> 00:39:05,919
Speaker 2: mainly for the reason that they don't want to scare

822
00:39:05,960 --> 00:39:08,279
Speaker 2: any of the horses. And when you're out there and

823
00:39:08,280 --> 00:39:10,360
Speaker 2: you're training, it's not just Derby and Oaks horses that

824
00:39:10,400 --> 00:39:12,840
Speaker 2: are out there, it's also ten thousand dollars made Enclaimers

825
00:39:12,880 --> 00:39:15,680
Speaker 2: right the lowest level of horse racing. So you've got

826
00:39:15,719 --> 00:39:17,880
Speaker 2: this diverse group of horses on the race track. The

827
00:39:17,960 --> 00:39:19,880
Speaker 2: last thing you want to do is blast music and

828
00:39:19,920 --> 00:39:22,160
Speaker 2: scare one of them, and they start running off and

829
00:39:22,200 --> 00:39:25,319
Speaker 2: cause an accident with another horse, so you don't ever

830
00:39:25,360 --> 00:39:27,879
Speaker 2: get to fully replicate it. And then the last part

831
00:39:27,880 --> 00:39:30,239
Speaker 2: of it is these horses have never run in a

832
00:39:30,239 --> 00:39:33,160
Speaker 2: field of twenty. If you've ever been to the Derby

833
00:39:33,200 --> 00:39:35,880
Speaker 2: and heard twenty horses go by you, it is loud.

834
00:39:36,400 --> 00:39:39,160
Speaker 2: You just hear that clapping of thunder with all these hoofs.

835
00:39:39,640 --> 00:39:42,280
Speaker 2: And famously, like Palace Malice ran in the Kentucky Derby

836
00:39:42,320 --> 00:39:45,400
Speaker 2: went to the lead had heard everything behind him and

837
00:39:45,520 --> 00:39:48,279
Speaker 2: just jetted, just took off, and there was no way

838
00:39:48,280 --> 00:39:49,800
Speaker 2: to know he was going to react in that manner.

839
00:39:49,800 --> 00:39:51,960
Speaker 2: But sometimes it happens at the derby where you've got

840
00:39:52,400 --> 00:39:55,040
Speaker 2: such a loud amount of sound right behind the leader

841
00:39:55,360 --> 00:39:57,239
Speaker 2: that they just they're like, I'm out of here, I

842
00:39:57,280 --> 00:40:00,000
Speaker 2: just want to go. So you never really know how

843
00:40:00,080 --> 00:40:01,920
Speaker 2: some of these horses are going to react, especially this

844
00:40:02,000 --> 00:40:04,160
Speaker 2: young three year old's not very old for a horse either.

845
00:40:04,719 --> 00:40:06,959
Speaker 4: I agree with that. I've looked at that life, Chad.

846
00:40:07,120 --> 00:40:09,200
Speaker 4: Nothing makes you run faster than fear. I don't know

847
00:40:09,200 --> 00:40:11,600
Speaker 4: if you've heard run from the cops, but I definitely

848
00:40:11,640 --> 00:40:14,200
Speaker 4: ran it under a four or five forty from the cops.

849
00:40:14,200 --> 00:40:16,640
Speaker 4: But going back to the horse racing, is there anyone

850
00:40:16,640 --> 00:40:18,040
Speaker 4: else you like for the underneath card?

851
00:40:19,280 --> 00:40:20,960
Speaker 2: On the undercard, I have a couple of horses I like.

852
00:40:21,000 --> 00:40:23,000
Speaker 2: So we talked about the Florida Derby. The Pat Day

853
00:40:23,080 --> 00:40:26,560
Speaker 2: Mile is race number eight on Saturday. I'm a big

854
00:40:26,600 --> 00:40:28,759
Speaker 2: fan of Fort Bragg, who got a horrible break in

855
00:40:28,760 --> 00:40:30,759
Speaker 2: that Florida Derby and then rushed up. I think he's

856
00:40:30,800 --> 00:40:32,440
Speaker 2: going to be better at a mile than he was

857
00:40:32,480 --> 00:40:35,080
Speaker 2: going two turns. So Fort Bragg the seven horse in

858
00:40:35,120 --> 00:40:37,680
Speaker 2: the eighth race on Saturday. Another one I like it

859
00:40:37,719 --> 00:40:40,799
Speaker 2: if you want to watch it. The fourth race on Saturday.

860
00:40:41,000 --> 00:40:42,640
Speaker 2: You're going to see good Night Olive, who won it

861
00:40:42,640 --> 00:40:45,560
Speaker 2: the Breeders Cup last year. I think she's going down

862
00:40:45,600 --> 00:40:48,120
Speaker 2: on Saturday. There's a horse named Matt Terrea, the five horse,

863
00:40:48,120 --> 00:40:50,040
Speaker 2: who's seven to two on the morning line. You're going

864
00:40:50,120 --> 00:40:52,040
Speaker 2: to get a good price on her because you're fading.

865
00:40:52,040 --> 00:40:54,439
Speaker 2: Good Night, Olive. I think she's got a big shot.

866
00:40:54,560 --> 00:40:56,759
Speaker 2: Second off the layoff, to fire into to knock off.

867
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Speaker 1: Good Night Olive Simon, For I have run from the popo.

868
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Speaker 1: At the Great Bottle Rocket War on the Revenue School

869
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Speaker 1: Playground of nineteen eighty seven, one person got nabbed Nobushala.

870
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Speaker 1: The rest of us scattered. You know what, He didn't

871
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Speaker 1: rat us out, spent the entire night getting interrogated by

872
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Speaker 1: the Highland Park Police. And he was the right one

873
00:41:26,440 --> 00:41:28,000
Speaker 1: to do it because he was the youngest of four,

874
00:41:28,640 --> 00:41:31,160
Speaker 1: so he could hold out and his parents did not

875
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Speaker 1: freak out when it was time to go get him.

876
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Speaker 1: We were all cowering at his house waiting for his

877
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Speaker 1: dad to go pick him up. Nobushala did not rat

878
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Speaker 1: and we ran like fucking crazy people to get away

879
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Speaker 1: from the Highland Park Police. Mike Samich, that was amazing.

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