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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg's Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Along

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Speaker 1: with Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa Brownwitz Jaily, we bring you

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Speaker 1: insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and international relations.

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Speaker 1: Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcast, Suncloud, Bloomberg dot Com,

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Speaker 1: and of course, on the Bloomberg Terminal. Let's get to

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Speaker 1: LORI canvastation into the head of U Secuity Strategy at

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Speaker 1: OMBC Capital Markets. Laurie, a little bit of a trim

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Speaker 1: to your price target, let's call it a trim from

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Speaker 1: forty sixty. Just walk me through your thinking over the

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Speaker 1: weekend into this week sure, you know, John, I think

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Speaker 1: we've all had the question on our minds. Are we

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Speaker 1: headed into a recession or not? And I will tell

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Speaker 1: you that are We have eleven different models that we

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Speaker 1: look at, but a fundamental assumption between behind all of

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Speaker 1: our modeling is the idea that we're going to see

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Speaker 1: a material slow down in economic growth that skirt the recession,

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Speaker 1: and so we do that. We you know, we've basically

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Speaker 1: updated our GDP models. We've added in a new valuation

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Speaker 1: test which was really responsible for a lot of the

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Speaker 1: downgrade to the part of the forecast, but in general,

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Speaker 1: we think that the economic data um is you know,

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Speaker 1: we're we're taking the optimistic case here that the said

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Speaker 1: will be able to pull this off. But we do

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Speaker 1: think that bond deals essentially have taken a bite out

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Speaker 1: of some of the forward return of the market. We

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Speaker 1: talked about that actually in April um that continues to

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Speaker 1: be the case today. And you know, Lisa mentioned peak

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Speaker 1: bearishness coming on. That's something else we're modeling. And so

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Speaker 1: we basically look at the recovery off of the load

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Speaker 1: that we had on May nineteenth and factor in the

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Speaker 1: typical recovery that we see in growth scars, and it's

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Speaker 1: about type return a aii that net barishness that we've

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Speaker 1: seen there also tends to give you a bit of

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Speaker 1: a springboard. So while we are factoring in this economic

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Speaker 1: rashing down, we do want to take an account of

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Speaker 1: the fact that sentiment probably has you know, hit peak

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Speaker 1: barishness as well. Lori, I want to take an individual

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Speaker 1: cell side report. I know you don't want to talk

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Speaker 1: about individual stocks, and I'm not going to ask you

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Speaker 1: about Amazon, but Ron Josie over City Group Publishers on

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Speaker 1: Amazon with a stunning view out one to three four years.

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Speaker 1: The dot growth from pre pandemic is forty three billion

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Speaker 1: out to a present seventy one billion out to a

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Speaker 1: window in twenty four months of a hundred and four billion.

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Speaker 1: I believe that's growth. You are pounding the table. The

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Speaker 1: growth does better is value fades discuss that. So look,

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Speaker 1: I think we also need to just take that economic

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Speaker 1: environment we think we're in and apply it to sector

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Speaker 1: and style positioning. And typically we see that when you

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Speaker 1: exit a hot economy to a cool economy, one that's

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Speaker 1: above growth to be glow, growth are above average to

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Speaker 1: blow average. It turns at the trend itself. You typically

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Speaker 1: see value seed leadership. Value does well in a hot economy,

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Speaker 1: and you tend to see growth out before in that

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Speaker 1: cooler economy. Now, defensives would do well in the recession,

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Speaker 1: but we think that's you know, a risk, but not

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Speaker 1: our base taste. And when we look at growth as

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Speaker 1: well versus value, we find that basically the relative valuation

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Speaker 1: multiples are all starting to look reasonable slightly attractive again.

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Speaker 1: And if you look at the long term growth expectation

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Speaker 1: between value and growth, it had been sliding, so growth

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Speaker 1: was really coming down relative to value. That tends to

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Speaker 1: drive the relative PE multiple. But we have actually started

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Speaker 1: to see some stability in that relative long term growth expectation.

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Speaker 1: In other words, investors have not given up on the

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Speaker 1: idea that growth is better than value on the growth front,

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Speaker 1: and that should give some support to the PE multiples here. So, Lory,

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Speaker 1: what's going to drive the SMP? What the what's the

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Speaker 1: leadership going to be to get it to? Which is

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Speaker 1: your new target? So, look, we like technology, and I

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Speaker 1: want to stress that we are being very particular and

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Speaker 1: very picky on that broader t I M key trade.

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Speaker 1: So we don't like the communication services sector were neutral

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Speaker 1: and consumer discretionary, but we like that classic tech sector

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Speaker 1: where the valuations have gone from being ridiculously overvalued um

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Speaker 1: to slightly attractive to neutral depending on what day we

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Speaker 1: update the model. Earnings revision trends are actually starting to

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Speaker 1: improve for the technology sector again, and it's one of

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Speaker 1: the biggest sources of net income in the SNP as

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Speaker 1: well as market cap, So we think that helps stabilize

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Speaker 1: the market. If we do have a peak in bond

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Speaker 1: fields here, which is a called our rate strategy team

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Speaker 1: is making, that should all help also help the tech

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Speaker 1: sector stabilize in terms of performance on the value side. Lisa,

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Speaker 1: I would tell you, look at financials got a much

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Speaker 1: better valuation case than what we've got an energy our materials.

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Speaker 1: Right now, earnings revisions are positive, but they're not peak like,

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Speaker 1: which I think they may be starting to look like

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Speaker 1: they are in energy. And we really think that as

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Speaker 1: the market sort of transitions away from the recession fear

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Speaker 1: narrative and towards the slower growth narrative, that can breathe

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Speaker 1: a little bit of life into this financials trade again

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Speaker 1: in terms of a relief Laurie, wonderful to get your

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Speaker 1: thoughts as you cut that price. Talkeet just a little bit,

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Speaker 1: LORI canvass in to the EVOMPI sake, we are thrilled

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Speaker 1: to bring you. Bruce chasm In, Chief Economists and the

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Speaker 1: head of Global economic Research at JP Morrigan listening all

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Speaker 1: weekend to Ario Speedwagon because Jasmin and team have been

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Speaker 1: riding the storm out. There's no hurt the hurricane. Come on,

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Speaker 1: you guys are diplomatic. In your Friday Weekly Prospects. You

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Speaker 1: pushed against the CEO, who's looking for a hurricane if

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Speaker 1: it's not a hurricane Bruce Brief, Mr Diamond right now

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Speaker 1: and what's ahead. Well, I think what we have here

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Speaker 1: is a pretty powerful tension between drags that are not

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Speaker 1: going away and a very resilient private sector, with the

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Speaker 1: health of both households and corporates being quite remarkable right now.

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Speaker 1: I think what we're gonna see is growth continue to

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Speaker 1: be on the softer side, but growth continue to show resilience. Uh.

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Speaker 1: We don't see a near term recession. Uh. We see

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Speaker 1: a global economy which actually does okay in the second

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Speaker 1: half of the year, with the US slowing and the

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Speaker 1: rest of the world doing somewhat better. What does China

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Speaker 1: do to the US? You call it to the audacity

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Speaker 1: you hope? I agree. We have a jump conditioning copper

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Speaker 1: this morning. But Lincoln, all of your Asia research over

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Speaker 1: to what's happening in the United States. Well, I think

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Speaker 1: the the US manufacturing sector mostly is gonna see some

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Speaker 1: softening as a result of what's been happening in China.

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Speaker 1: I think, in addition to that, there is every reason

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Speaker 1: to think that higher interest rates, higher energy prices is

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Speaker 1: gonna hurt things like the autosector. We can see that. Uh.

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Speaker 1: And we've just been through a really good run for

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Speaker 1: US and global manufacturing on the back of inventory dynamics,

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Speaker 1: I think industry is gonna slow. You know, our basic

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Speaker 1: point is there's no real reason to be worried about

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Speaker 1: a recession. There is some slowing in the in the picture.

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Speaker 1: But the other thing is that part of the reason

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Speaker 1: we're getting slowing is high inflation. And I think the

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Speaker 1: combination of high inflation and tight labor markets is starting

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Speaker 1: to change the inflation process, which over time is not

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Speaker 1: good for the sustainability of this expansion. So I'm not

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Speaker 1: I'm not trying to downplay the underlying dynamics here, which

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Speaker 1: are worrisome, but not about near term recessionments. I think

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Speaker 1: you have to get hit by much bigger shocks to

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Speaker 1: really talk about recession anytime in the next twelve months

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Speaker 1: or so. Bruce to one of John's pet peeves that

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Speaker 1: you mentioned this morning, the good news is bad news

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Speaker 1: that we experienced on Friday, the momentum in a labor

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Speaker 1: market highlights how much the FED has to do. Is

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Speaker 1: that your takeaway from the recent data that there is

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Speaker 1: nothing to stop the FED from being more aggressive than

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Speaker 1: the market is currently pricing in. I think over time

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Speaker 1: that's true. I think the FED is committed to two fifties. UH.

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Speaker 1: If we're right in the economy slowing towards a two

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Speaker 1: percent pace later this year, there's a good chance they

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Speaker 1: slow the pace down. But but ultimately, I don't think

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Speaker 1: what you see in market pricing is going to be

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Speaker 1: consistent with the get FED getting control on inflation, UH,

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Speaker 1: slowing the economy down to to something that's going to

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Speaker 1: be weak. And I think ultimately the FED is going

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Speaker 1: to have to do more. But I don't think the

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Speaker 1: Fed is ready or signaling it's willing to do that

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Speaker 1: much more. I think in the near term, and I

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Speaker 1: think that's important. The FED does not want to create

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Speaker 1: a recession right now. The FED is tolerant of inflation

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Speaker 1: above two percent. So this is gonna take time before

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Speaker 1: we get to the point where the FED really has

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Speaker 1: to hurt us. So, Bruce, when I was reading a

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Speaker 1: lot of the notes over the weekend, they see us

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Speaker 1: to be this distinction drawn between a slowdown and a

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Speaker 1: recession is a really some sort of clear cut distinction here,

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Speaker 1: or we basically just parsing words around the same issue,

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Speaker 1: which is, how do you price in a loss of momentum.

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Speaker 1: I think there's a huge difference between a slowdown and

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Speaker 1: a recession. We haven't had a recession in the US

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Speaker 1: without the US unemployment rate rising two percentage points or

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Speaker 1: more recessions and nonline events where corporates are pulling back.

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Speaker 1: So I think we should be careful and we use

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Speaker 1: those terms to make sure we understand that that's what

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Speaker 1: it means. There are a number of different ways the

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Speaker 1: economy can slow. I think it is likely the U

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Speaker 1: S economy slow. I don't think it's likely that we're

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Speaker 1: going to see that kind of break that we've seen

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Speaker 1: that's been notable in recession dynamics. First, one of the

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Speaker 1: big distinctions of JP Morgan is how you parse it

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Speaker 1: out among your team. I know you hang on every

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Speaker 1: word the Daniel Silver rights in this weekend. He rights

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Speaker 1: about high wage growth. This is a really important concept

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Speaker 1: and that the new domestic labor economy is skewing again

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Speaker 1: the high wage job growth just us that well. As

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Speaker 1: as the pandemic got hit and we saw dislocations in

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Speaker 1: the economy, an important part of the wage gains we

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Speaker 1: were seeing in the elevated wage gains were not tied

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Speaker 1: to the tightness of the labor market. They were tied

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Speaker 1: to the dislocations, and they were unusually skewed towards lower

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Speaker 1: UH skill UH job sectors. And now we're seeing, I think,

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Speaker 1: what's more consistent with the tight labor market UH wage

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Speaker 1: pressures building, and wage pressures building in particular insectors of

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Speaker 1: the economy that are high wages. I think the problem

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Speaker 1: the economy has even as it slows, is that the

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Speaker 1: labor market tightness, the salience of inflation UH is starting

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Speaker 1: to affect the wage and price setting process. And I

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Speaker 1: think that's the issue around the sustainability of the expansion

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Speaker 1: that ultimately is going to be a serious problem. How

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Speaker 1: long can the consumer remain resilient if you don't get

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Speaker 1: wage gains commensurate with inflation, and if you see people

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Speaker 1: eating down into their savings as we have, well, first

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Speaker 1: of all, we should realize we are getting wage gains

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Speaker 1: commensurate with inflation. The wage bill, wages and hours together

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Speaker 1: have been growing at about a nine percent base over

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Speaker 1: the last six months or so, so we have been

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Speaker 1: getting that. I think we are going to see slowing

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Speaker 1: in wage income, partly because the aboutmy slowing. I do

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Speaker 1: think the US household sector has every ability to continue

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Speaker 1: to absorb drags from higher inflation. The question is whether

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Speaker 1: they're gonna be willing to and whether corporates are going

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Speaker 1: to continue to generate that kind of labor income. First,

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Speaker 1: you're gonna hate me. We talked to people in the

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Speaker 1: White House and we say, when you go into the

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Speaker 1: Oval office and sit on that gold couch, how does

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Speaker 1: the president take in your economic data when you wander

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Speaker 1: into Mr Diamond's office and you have to do a briefing,

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Speaker 1: how does he take in the chasm in economic data. Well,

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Speaker 1: I think he takes it in and he's got his

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Speaker 1: own views. I remember quite distinctly in the past that,

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Speaker 1: you know, the leadership of the firm was much more

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Speaker 1: clear cut about understanding dynamics and financial conditions and how

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Speaker 1: they were going to impact on the on the on

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Speaker 1: the macro economy. That's something which is economist we may

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Speaker 1: not fully appreciate. I think that's one of the issues

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Speaker 1: we have to face right now is financial conditions are

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Speaker 1: tightening as we're seeing it, and we we give our advice. Um,

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Speaker 1: you know, as we see it, we see the economy slowing,

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Speaker 1: We don't see a financial storm coming right now, and

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Speaker 1: we think the economy is gonna avoid recession as we

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Speaker 1: go through the rest of this year. John, if we

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Speaker 1: go into hurricane season, can we get Cassman in here

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Speaker 1: to do other reports? I think Cassman practice that would

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Speaker 1: pay on before coming on. That's for sure. Proce gonna

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Speaker 1: catch up audience. Chris Castman at JP Morgan my favorite

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Speaker 1: tweet this morning. The hurricane has been tancraded to a

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Speaker 1: light summer priest for JP Morgan. Hawaiine Becker joins us, Now,

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Speaker 1: this could be a three hour interview given the fixation

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Speaker 1: in American air travel as we come out of the pandemic.

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Speaker 1: Deaths under three is a huge, huge deal, Hollane, Let

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Speaker 1: me get out of the way, Spirit Frontier and Jet

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Speaker 1: Blue into borrow phrase some cf A level four? Is

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Speaker 1: this dinosaurs mating? Is this much ado about next to nothing? Well,

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Speaker 1: we'll see what happens. Um. It's certainly not a done

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Speaker 1: deal in any case, because they need regulatory approval and

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Speaker 1: the regulatory hurdles in the current administration are pretty high. UM,

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Speaker 1: so there's no guarantee either deal gets done. Obviously, Spirit

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Speaker 1: thinks they have a better proposal, and um really are

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Speaker 1: taking to task the Spirit Airlines Board of Directors and

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Speaker 1: management team Hollane just to get this out of the way,

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Speaker 1: because Lisa's got forty seven other questions that really matter.

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Speaker 1: How does Spirit Frontier or Jet Blue, Spirit, whatever the

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Speaker 1: name is gonna be. How do they compete with the

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Speaker 1: juggernauts like United, Delta and American Air Yeah, you know,

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Speaker 1: that's a good question to Tom, and I think that's

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Speaker 1: why they need to merge. I think any airline currently

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Speaker 1: not named American, Delta or United is having issues attracting

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Speaker 1: and retaining people, and one of the biggest issues is

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Speaker 1: retaining pilots. UM there were ten thousand pilots that retired

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Speaker 1: in twenty one, and in order to fly the schedule

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Speaker 1: they need to hire that man a plus to do

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Speaker 1: any growth. If they were anticipating, they need to hire

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Speaker 1: figure another twenty UM. I said this year alone, the

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Speaker 1: industry needs to hire something like twelve thousand pilots and

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Speaker 1: we just don't turn out that many. Number one and

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Speaker 1: number two. The whole idea I think behind either mergers

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Speaker 1: really about giving UM employees and especially pilots, more crew bases,

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Speaker 1: more opportunity. It will fly the schedule more opportunity to

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Speaker 1: make captain, which is where you maximize your income over

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Speaker 1: the life of your career. UM. And I think that's

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Speaker 1: really what what we're arguing about here, and I think

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Speaker 1: that's why Jeff lewis being so aggressive attracting. Attracting employees

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Speaker 1: is basically the same as saying having to pay them more.

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Speaker 1: Not the same, but it's definitely part and parcel of

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Speaker 1: the same story, Helene. Given the fact that airlines are

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Speaker 1: having to pay their workers more, they're also facing much

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Speaker 1: higher costs when it comes to fuel. How much pricing

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Speaker 1: power do they continue to have as consumers get crimped

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Speaker 1: in other areas as well. Yeah, that's a great question,

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Speaker 1: and we're wondering that ourselves. Um So, so here's how

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Speaker 1: we're thinking about it. The summer is sold out. Everybody

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Speaker 1: who was planning to go away in June, July, and

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Speaker 1: August probably bought their tickets in April or May, and

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Speaker 1: certainly UM airlines themselves have been sounding the alarm on

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Speaker 1: higher ticket prices. UM they're also flight cancelations. It's it's

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Speaker 1: really kind of a disastrous summer. I think. I think

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Speaker 1: we're setting up for a really difficult summer from the

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Speaker 1: perspective of operations. Um, but I think we're worried about

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Speaker 1: September and what happens in the fall because to your point, UM,

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Speaker 1: I heard you say that gasoline prices are five dollars

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Speaker 1: a gallon, and UM, we're certainly seeing it costs more

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Speaker 1: and more to fill up cars, especially for those who drive. UM.

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Speaker 1: And and airlines have new choice. But as labor costs

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Speaker 1: go up, and as fuel costs go up, and airport

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Speaker 1: fees are going up, they have huge inflationary pressures, they

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Speaker 1: need to raise ticket prices. And at some point the

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Speaker 1: consumer is going to say, Okay, we did our travel

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Speaker 1: and we're just done. We cannot fly again. But to

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Speaker 1: that point, Helene, how much does business take over given

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Speaker 1: the fact you are seeing more conferences and people are

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Speaker 1: realizing that that FaceTime is really important. Yes, well that's

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Speaker 1: our our. I don't want to say hope is a strategy, right,

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Speaker 1: but that's what we are thinking about. After labor Day.

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Speaker 1: We are thinking that, Okay, leisure travel, which is up

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Speaker 1: about thirty five or from twenty nineteen levels, starts to

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Speaker 1: flatten ow until the holidays and then UM, business travel,

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Speaker 1: which to your point, is increasing with more conferences definitely

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Speaker 1: more in person. There's been so much turnover at companies

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Speaker 1: that you don't know who your clients are anymore. So yes,

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Speaker 1: you have to get out and meet and greet, and

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Speaker 1: so we're hoping that business travel definitely comes UM comes back,

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Speaker 1: and then international is the other big one, right UM

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Speaker 1: we think internationals down about fifty still, especially Asia Pacific,

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Speaker 1: which we think will be another couple of years before

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Speaker 1: it comes back because of the uncertainty with COVID. But um,

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Speaker 1: North Atlantic is going to be good this summer, even

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Speaker 1: when the US still requiring testing, well the testing, I

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Speaker 1: want to go there. We we experienced this in real

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Speaker 1: time for instantly. QUI the Gulf Stream folks. So Lisa

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Speaker 1: and I were flying you know, the airlines. Hellane Becker

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Speaker 1: talks about why do we why are we the only ones,

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Speaker 1: Helene with a test to get back into the country.

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Speaker 1: When does that go away? No kidding? I think it's ridiculous,

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Speaker 1: right because you can fly to Toronto or Tijuana or Mexico,

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Speaker 1: well Mexico City, yeah, said that, and then you drive

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Speaker 1: across the land border and you don't have to test.

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Speaker 1: So how insane is that that you have to that

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Speaker 1: you cannot fly into the United States without having a

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Speaker 1: predeparture test. It's just ridiculous. And I've been wrong on

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Speaker 1: this so far. I thought it would go away in

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Speaker 1: March and it didn't. I thought I may first for

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Speaker 1: sure it would go away. No, it's still with US.

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Speaker 1: UM So maybe I'm done predicting when it's going away

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Speaker 1: and just kind of thinking at some point the US

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Speaker 1: has to examine what it is doing and remove that

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Speaker 1: pre departure testing. Becker, thank you so much, greatly appreciate it.

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Speaker 1: With Cowen always here on sprint frontier. Jeff Blue yea.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to frame out the math here and then

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Speaker 1: John's gonna pick it up. Vision tu joins us down Global,

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Speaker 1: director of fixed income Research at Morgan Stanley Visual. If

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Speaker 1: you take the vector and you take the x axis,

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Speaker 1: you end up at a terminal rate for the ten

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Speaker 1: yere yield. Where is your guestimate of the of the

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Speaker 1: ten year yield terminal rate? It's hard to say ternal rate.

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Speaker 1: I would say how looking ahead and second quarter next year,

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Speaker 1: we expect the ten year rate to be at three

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Speaker 1: point and we expect and if FED is downe, we

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Speaker 1: think they will be in the you know about in

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Speaker 1: the three to three point two five percent range the

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Speaker 1: target ranges, will they will stop hiking, which would put

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Speaker 1: them about what we would consider to be are generally

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Speaker 1: industed to be a neutral, which is a someone imprecise estimate.

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Speaker 1: I don't have set. Asked people twenty three, which year

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Speaker 1: with the high on a tenuere tritory fall in. Most

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Speaker 1: people would conclude twenty two, they say, because they look

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Speaker 1: ahead to twenty three at the day celeration in growth,

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Speaker 1: and I think most people would think yelds would be

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Speaker 1: much lower, maybe closer to two on a ten year

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Speaker 1: What's with the more constandar view issue. Why do you

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Speaker 1: have this view that we can almost stabilize around three

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Speaker 1: percent as the FED ultimately attacks growth tries to bring

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Speaker 1: it lower. So I think I have some sympathy with

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Speaker 1: that news we did that view. I think the key

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Speaker 1: thing to keep in mind is that while decision risks

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Speaker 1: have certainly gone up, our economist models show that the

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Speaker 1: session risks have gone up just from a few weeks

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Speaker 1: ago to now something like thirty So while the recession

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Speaker 1: that have gone up, but in the US recession is

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Speaker 1: still not our base case. So that's the first important

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Speaker 1: thing to note is that it's US recession is not

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Speaker 1: our base case, and we are suggesting that between now

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Speaker 1: and the end of the year we would be pretty

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Speaker 1: much range bound in a sort of in in in

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Speaker 1: two seventy five three ish kind of levels. Uh. And

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Speaker 1: so three three upon one five is not a tremendously

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Speaker 1: far from this from this range. So, especially with laying

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Speaker 1: the idea that we will our base case remains um

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Speaker 1: not about that at a recession under the FED keeps

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Speaker 1: going um to get to significant you know, at least

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Speaker 1: some points about about the neutral rate. So wisially some

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Speaker 1: people would say that they higher long term interest rate

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Speaker 1: call is uh. Get pair as well with this idea

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Speaker 1: that the FED isn't gonna be overly aggressive, that they're

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Speaker 1: gonna allow inflation to remain well above that two percent

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Speaker 1: target for way longer than a lot of people expect.

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Speaker 1: You agree, So we think that they fed until including three,

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Speaker 1: we will we don't expect that they will come back

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Speaker 1: to a two percent level of concrete c level, So

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Speaker 1: we expect that the inflation will remain about that level

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Speaker 1: through So what does that mean for credit? Given the

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Speaker 1: fact that we really saw a rates move for the

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Speaker 1: first part of the year, and now we're looking at

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Speaker 1: something that's looking, to use Tom's word, more nudgy in

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Speaker 1: the credit space. We saw saw offen the credit spreads.

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Speaker 1: Then you saw our tracement. But now there's starting to

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Speaker 1: be a little bit more concerned where do you fall.

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Speaker 1: So we think that it's time, you know, year today

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Speaker 1: to say maybe about a few weeks ago it was

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Speaker 1: mainly a duration driven negative or returns. We think a

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Speaker 1: lot of that is now in price and I would

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Speaker 1: be careful at this point and move up in the

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Speaker 1: in the quality spectrum, so we you know, within the

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Speaker 1: high yel space with more moved towards double bees, where

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Speaker 1: within the UH investment grade space UH in investment grade

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Speaker 1: over high yield, that would be our call. Basically, the

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Speaker 1: the the notion is that I want to emphasize this

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Speaker 1: point that the credit does not have a fundamental problem

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Speaker 1: um other than vague, very very tailed part of the

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Speaker 1: of the credit of the credit spectrum. So credit has

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Speaker 1: a valuation problem that we think that that means that

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Speaker 1: you know, compels us to move higher in the quality spectrum.

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Speaker 1: Sounds like he rosso a little bit word about credit risk,

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Speaker 1: though she relatively speaking to where you work the start

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Speaker 1: of the year. Correct, correct, absolutely. You know, in the

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Speaker 1: starting of the year we thought we would should take

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Speaker 1: default risk overd duration risk. That played out. I think

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Speaker 1: at this point we have taken that preference of default

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Speaker 1: or duration off now and we think this is the

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Speaker 1: time to move higher in the in the quality spectrum.

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Speaker 1: But ultimately this you don't think we should be worried

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Speaker 1: about a default cycle kicking up with a big way. Exactly.

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Speaker 1: I don't think we should be ready, at least in

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Speaker 1: the next one month spike in default. That is simply

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Speaker 1: not in our expectation. But she thank you as always,

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Speaker 1: Morgan Stanley. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Thanks for listening.

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Speaker 1: Join us live weekdays from seven to ten am Eastern.

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Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio and Bloomberg Television each day from six

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Speaker 1: to nine am for insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,

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Speaker 1: and international relations. And subscribe to the Surveillance podcast on

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Speaker 1: Apple podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot com, and of course on

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Speaker 1: the terminal. I'm Tom keene In. This is Bloomer