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Speaker 2: Well.
Speaker 3: Stephanie Roth joins US now chief economist at Wolf Research.
Speaker 3: The fact, Stephanie is I got a thirty year bond.
Speaker 3: Lisa was talking it was a five eleven rounded up,
Speaker 3: it's now a five thirteen. Are the bonvigilantes telling the
Speaker 3: politicians what to do and does it then amend your
Speaker 3: economic forecasts?
Speaker 4: I think there might be work that the bond vigilantes
Speaker 4: will continue to do in the next.
Speaker 5: Couple of weeks.
Speaker 4: At this point, there's not enough that would really change policy,
Speaker 4: but there's a real reality that we might have yields
Speaker 4: continue to sell off such that it makes policymakers blink
Speaker 4: to some extent.
Speaker 5: But we are tire there to be clear.
Speaker 6: You'll hire price down years.
Speaker 4: Ye'll higher price down, but we are not there such
Speaker 4: that at this point, the you know, the bill will
Speaker 4: continue to move on until this happens such that it
Speaker 4: creates a big sell off inequities. This is not our
Speaker 4: base case, but there's a real possibility of it.
Speaker 3: Is a five thirteen thirty year bond and eight percent mortgage.
Speaker 2: I don't know, it's not mean good folks that are
Speaker 2: good about here go out and try to buy a
Speaker 2: house this weekend. So Stephanie, what are you guys thinking
Speaker 2: about this economy here? I mean again, as we think
Speaker 2: about the tariffs. I was just reading a note by
Speaker 2: Torsen Slock. He makes it very simple. You know, tariffs
Speaker 2: were about three percent. Now they're on a weighted basis
Speaker 2: about eighteen percent. That's got to impact the economy. Do
Speaker 2: you guys have a recession call out there, or do
Speaker 2: you just have a slowing economy.
Speaker 4: We don't have a recession call. We're looking for Actually,
Speaker 4: growth could be above one percent this year, really okay,
Speaker 4: somewhere between one and one and a half percent. So
Speaker 4: you do have a big tariff hit to the economy.
Speaker 4: With the rollbacks of China that was significant.
Speaker 2: Yep.
Speaker 4: So tariffs could weigh on the economy by about seventy
Speaker 4: basis points. But the Reconciliation bill has a bit of
Speaker 4: a positive impact as well. Why because the business provisions
Speaker 4: do get pulled forward into twenty twenty five, so about
Speaker 4: twenty basis.
Speaker 3: So it has stimulus like COVID type of stimulus effect.
Speaker 4: A lot more, a lot more modest this year. Next
Speaker 4: year we should have actually a decent amount of stimulus
Speaker 4: from this bill. Combination of the business provisions as well
Speaker 4: as the individual provisions, things like no tax on tips,
Speaker 4: no tax on overtime, that really has an impact next year.
Speaker 2: So that this all flows down to the consumer, which
Speaker 2: of course is seventy percent of this US economy. How
Speaker 2: is the consumer out there from your perspective, So part of.
Speaker 5: The consumer's okay, nothing that bad has happened to them.
Speaker 4: Jobs continue to grow, they continue to have solid wage gains,
Speaker 4: and as long unless that can change is the consumer
Speaker 4: will continue to chug along.
Speaker 3: Here, what's the biggest mystery of your research forecast? You
Speaker 3: got an Excel spreadsheet. She's awesome at it, so yeah,
Speaker 3: she does formulus like no one. What's the biggest hole
Speaker 3: in that Excel spreadsheet?
Speaker 6: The biggest secret?
Speaker 4: I think the real question is the multiplier effect from
Speaker 4: the tariffs. So you could say the tariff dollars raised,
Speaker 4: have every dollar that gets raised from tariffs has a
Speaker 4: one dollar impact on GDP. That's kind of the more
Speaker 4: extreme outlook, in which case you could have a bigger
Speaker 4: impact negative impact on the economy this year, or you
Speaker 4: could say it has a more you know, the lower
Speaker 4: end of the range, kind of zero point five. So
Speaker 4: for every dollar that's raised in tariffs, it's about a
Speaker 4: fifty cent hit two to GDP, which would then make
Speaker 4: it a lot more modest. And the real impact here,
Speaker 4: or the question is to what extent there's uncertainty that
Speaker 4: really weighs in the economy, And being that Trump has
Speaker 4: paired back to tariffs, it suggests a slightly lower multiplier
Speaker 4: on this.
Speaker 3: Paul Gary out on the The Light Chat on YouTube,
Speaker 3: I like learn show on this. I'm sorry, Gary kills
Speaker 3: it welcome back to the Vulcar era.
Speaker 6: Young pupps. It's coming.
Speaker 3: I mean, it's inflammatory exactly, but I'm watching the thirty
Speaker 3: year bond here. It's seven point rounded up five excuse me,
Speaker 3: five point one three percent. It's not Vulcar, but it's
Speaker 3: a shift, to.
Speaker 6: Say the least.
Speaker 2: Eric from the back room rights in Anna Wang is
Speaker 2: arguing tariff revenue will neutralize the deficit impact.
Speaker 6: That's my next.
Speaker 3: Question is Stephanie, thank you doctor Wang for I mean,
Speaker 3: we got help from girl.
Speaker 6: We got help from Wang. Today it's too too long.
Speaker 7: Everybody's terrors bringing money right there?
Speaker 6: Where's it go?
Speaker 4: So base cases the tariffs bring in three to four
Speaker 4: hundred billion dollars a year, which is not nothing. It
Speaker 4: does help to offset the deficit impact. Granted, the deficit
Speaker 4: is still going to be somewhere between six and seven
Speaker 4: percent over the next decade, so it's really not great.
Speaker 4: In a positive scenario, maybe you're in the five percent range,
Speaker 4: but you're so certainly nowhere near the three percent that
Speaker 4: Besson has been targeting.
Speaker 2: So what is FED Chairman J. Paldow. He looks at
Speaker 2: this legislation today, he says, does it change his outlook
Speaker 2: at all about how he thinks about interest rates for
Speaker 2: this economy?
Speaker 8: Yeah?
Speaker 4: I think at the margin, it reduces the odds that
Speaker 4: the FED able to cut this year.
Speaker 5: We technically have two.
Speaker 4: Cuts on paper, but the odds are certainly lower than
Speaker 4: that rather than more so, especially when you think about
Speaker 4: the sort of the net impact of tariffs, which now
Speaker 4: there's a lot less uncertainty, there's less concern around empty shelves,
Speaker 4: which meets the consumer more likely to spend, and we
Speaker 4: have a bit of a fiscal stimulus this year helping
Speaker 4: to offset some of the tariff drag. And the next
Speaker 4: year we're just talking about net fiscal stimulus, so growth
Speaker 4: potentially above two percent.
Speaker 3: The special edition of Bloomberg Surveying. That's a historic moment
Speaker 3: for those waking up across America.
Speaker 6: Two minutes to the hour this.
Speaker 3: Morning, Nathan Hager on air, the House passed this historic
Speaker 3: text legislation. Thank you Terry Haynes and David Gurra for
Speaker 3: wisdom here and Stephanie Roth briefness right now with Wolf
Speaker 3: Research and Anna Wong out moments ago with an extensive
Speaker 3: node including work Paul from the Yale Budget Lab and
Speaker 3: the Text Foundation, I mean, Ernie Tedesky and the team,
Speaker 3: and Maam mcguinnis these are our budget people folk.
Speaker 7: We will have them on air in the coming days.
Speaker 3: Is Stephanie is Eric mentioned with the team doctor Wang
Speaker 3: Paul mentioning.
Speaker 6: You know what terror springing money they do?
Speaker 2: They do and you know maybe it's the tariffs. Plus
Speaker 2: this House budget could be near deficit neutral, according to
Speaker 2: Enna Wong. So Stephanie, what's the next data point for you?
Speaker 2: What's the big issue for you to see where this
Speaker 2: economy maybe tips on the margin over the next six months.
Speaker 2: What are you looking for?
Speaker 7: Is it I'd like her to say six to twelve hours, yes, exactly?
Speaker 2: Is that labor? Is it bed? What are you looking at?
Speaker 5: The next thing to watch out for is labor.
Speaker 4: So one thing that we're watching, especially after the Supreme
Speaker 4: Court ruled on Venezuelan's that their TPS is going to
Speaker 4: be expiring for them, which is a hawk shoutcome that
Speaker 4: suggests that the program chn v.
Speaker 5: Cuba hating a Garab woman whale.
Speaker 4: There's about five hundred thousand people that's held up in
Speaker 4: courts and Trump tried to end all of their visas overnight.
Speaker 4: This suggests that the margin that these visas might also
Speaker 4: be ruled in a similar way, such that we might
Speaker 4: lose about five hundred thousand people from.
Speaker 5: The labor force overnight.
Speaker 4: So the thing that we're going to be watching from
Speaker 4: the labor market reports is what's happening with the foreign
Speaker 4: born workforce and are we're starting to see non farm
Speaker 4: pails shift down substantially because of the slowdown in immigration.
Speaker 6: Sephanie, we're off bond strategists with us.
Speaker 3: I got a ten year real yield not breaking out yet,
Speaker 3: but a two point two three percent up substantially off
Speaker 3: of the negative one percent COVID thing. I'm not back
Speaker 3: to a four percent real yield of the year two thousand.
Speaker 3: But do you just assume a higher inflation just to
Speaker 3: yield dampen's business or is that an animal spirit that
Speaker 3: folds into nominal GDP?
Speaker 8: Yeah?
Speaker 4: I mean I think it could damp into some extent,
Speaker 4: But for now we might be in an environment where
Speaker 4: growth is actually just surprising to the upside.
Speaker 3: Well, that's what President Trump's betting on. This is a
Speaker 3: growthiness is there?
Speaker 2: Yep?
Speaker 4: And that might be the case, even though we're still
Speaker 4: talking about one percent GDP growth. It's not that great
Speaker 4: for this year, but for next year looking ahead, growth
Speaker 4: might actually be pretty Twenty seconds.
Speaker 3: What are you writing about this morning? Just give me
Speaker 3: a theme there. I don't want to take it away
Speaker 3: from Wolf Research clients, but what's a number one message
Speaker 3: from you this morning to your clients?
Speaker 4: The main message we wrote back this morning was on
Speaker 4: the reconciliation bill. The main thing is there's there's hidden
Speaker 4: hidden sort of spending here, in the sense that a
Speaker 4: lot of the provisions end after four years, but if
Speaker 4: they are extended, which is largely the assumption, that's an
Speaker 4: additional one point two five trillion dollars in addition to
Speaker 4: the price tag of this bill.
Speaker 5: This is what the bond market Brian.
Speaker 6: Jeff I love this.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live
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Speaker 9: Listen on Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app,
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Speaker 3: Russ brown Beck joins us to say is it black
Speaker 3: Rock is barely descriptive of the huge perspective.
Speaker 6: And the intelligence of his note.
Speaker 3: The fancy title is Global Macro Positioning Team, which means
Speaker 3: that Hobart years ago, he's the one that bought the
Speaker 3: cases of Jenny Kremel.
Speaker 2: In high school. I'm in college. I went up to
Speaker 2: visit a high school buddy mine in Hobart February.
Speaker 6: February night. It was the coldest.
Speaker 2: Weather I ever experienced. I was darn near in Canada.
Speaker 2: I felt like, what am I doing? That's the cold
Speaker 2: and dark, cold and dark exactly. That's where Russ sped
Speaker 2: for years out of Hobart. So, Russ, what are you
Speaker 2: doing with this market here? I mean, there's so much uncertainty.
Speaker 2: We've seen the equity markets go down twenty percent, retrace
Speaker 2: a lot of that. We had a crazy treasury market
Speaker 2: a couple of months ago. How are you guys just
Speaker 2: sitting back and saying, where do we want to be
Speaker 2: positioned in this kind of environment?
Speaker 9: Yep?
Speaker 10: So this is the super Bowl for macro. Okay, you
Speaker 10: know the the uncertainty. And by the way, the uncertainty
Speaker 10: has been with us for several years. And when we
Speaker 10: had a historic FED tightening cycle, a regional banking crisis
Speaker 10: that was scary in the moment, we had an acrimonious,
Speaker 10: historic election last year, and now you know, an uncertain
Speaker 10: period as policy gets rolled out, and so you know,
Speaker 10: it's a wonderful opportunity in fixed income y'all. In an
Speaker 10: earlier segment, we're talking about high real yields. It's an
Speaker 10: incredible opportunity in fixed income markets to harness very attractive
Speaker 10: income and do so in a very optimized way, high quality.
Speaker 3: But oh wise, when folks I can't say enough about
Speaker 3: the acuity of his note. We could literally do one
Speaker 3: hour through us and go two sentences by two sentences
Speaker 3: through the intelligence of his note.
Speaker 6: Okay, that's new money captures a real yield.
Speaker 3: New money captures a you know, ten year yield to
Speaker 3: four point six one percent.
Speaker 7: Wow.
Speaker 3: But the old buddies seeing price go down? Do people
Speaker 3: take losses? How does like if you're in JGB twenty year,
Speaker 3: you got a loss. In the US you got a loss?
Speaker 3: Do you take losses?
Speaker 6: Here?
Speaker 10: So again you're pointing to the tactical opportunities that exist.
Speaker 10: The way we position our multisector portfolios is to avoid
Speaker 10: those longer duration assets that have all that volatility today.
Speaker 10: And if you're in the front to the belly of
Speaker 10: the curve, and then you're marrying corporate credit and securitized
Speaker 10: assets on top of that, you know you're getting enough
Speaker 10: income where you can ride out short term periods of
Speaker 10: volatility that give you price losses from one day to
Speaker 10: the next. Over the course of the year, that carry
Speaker 10: just builds up night.
Speaker 3: How do you this is like with Ira Jersey here
Speaker 3: it'll be the same question, how do you feel the
Speaker 3: losses in long term paper?
Speaker 6: Will clear just done?
Speaker 3: It? To go to Friedrich Kayak on a Hiachian basis,
Speaker 3: what's the process to clear a twenty year yield loss?
Speaker 10: You know, I actually think that question was answered in
Speaker 10: twenty twenty two. That was the year that the aggregate index,
Speaker 10: as a proxy for the fixed income market, it broke.
Speaker 10: It had its worst down year in a generation. And
Speaker 10: so here we are three years later, and everything seems
Speaker 10: to be functioning reasonably well. So I think I think
Speaker 10: we've learned that lesson. You always like to say, as
Speaker 10: the X axis extends, you know, you have more certainties.
Speaker 3: Lisa, somebody listens to the show. Okay, is the axis,
Speaker 3: folks whore ripping up the script? Is the xaxis given
Speaker 3: this legislation, given the uncertainty of the.
Speaker 6: Secretary of Treasure in Trump? Is the xaxis.
Speaker 3: Logarithmic where there's a non linear dynamic in time right now?
Speaker 10: So you know, again I talked about it being the
Speaker 10: super Bowl of macro. You know this the EBB and flow.
Speaker 10: The narrative has been so negative, and yet underpinning all
Speaker 10: of it is I think an incredible positive story for fundamentals,
Speaker 10: particularly as it pertains to corporate credit, securitized assets and
Speaker 10: the like. So, you know, I love a wall of
Speaker 10: worry in markets, and I think underpinning it all is
Speaker 10: an optimism.
Speaker 2: We talked about it a lot late last year. We
Speaker 2: forgot all about it.
Speaker 10: All we talk about is what's what's scary today?
Speaker 2: How about credit? Here, Russ, how much credit risk are
Speaker 2: you guys taking in at black Rock these days?
Speaker 10: So the credit markets are higher quality than they've really
Speaker 10: ever been, certainly in my career, and they're supported by
Speaker 10: really profound technicals. Here's a great statistic for you, so
Speaker 10: I for you're cocktail party statistics, exactly, I need it.
Speaker 10: The entire high yield market the index market capitalization one
Speaker 10: point four trillion dollars. The treasury market grows by that
Speaker 10: size every nine months by virtue of the deficit. So
Speaker 10: it speaks to the deficit of yielding assets in market today.
Speaker 10: And when you marry that with really solid fundamentals that
Speaker 10: underpin credit quality, it's it's it's really just about where
Speaker 10: is optimal. So you know, back when spreads widened in
Speaker 10: the tariff event of April, we wanted to move into
Speaker 10: high quality assets that had widened a significant amount those
Speaker 10: of retraced. Now we're thinking about moving down the stack
Speaker 10: a little bit opportunistically, taking advantage of technicals and those
Speaker 10: positive fundamentals.
Speaker 2: How do you guys deal with private credit that's been
Speaker 2: such a growth story over the last fifteen years. That
Speaker 2: was in early in our careers we didn't have really
Speaker 2: probably had private equity, We didn't really have private credit.
Speaker 2: Now it's become such a big asset class. How do
Speaker 2: you guys think about that?
Speaker 10: Another awesome opportunity for us. You know, we don't really
Speaker 10: make much of a delineation between.
Speaker 7: Public and private markets.
Speaker 10: You look first and you say, am I getting enough
Speaker 10: risk premium on the asset? And secondly, am I getting
Speaker 10: enough illiquidity premium? And if you are, then it belongs
Speaker 10: in the portfolio to the work of.
Speaker 3: This is a Fidelty years ago, the giant George Vanderhyden
Speaker 3: and I think of Jeff Winnick and others the parlor
Speaker 3: game of buying a twenty year zero Are you so
Speaker 3: optimistic about total return, price up, yield down that you
Speaker 3: can speculate on a long duration zero coupon bond full
Speaker 3: of faith and credit?
Speaker 10: So you know, again, we're going to look for the
Speaker 10: optimal opportunity set. We don't think it's at the back
Speaker 10: end of the curve. I will say, you know, there's
Speaker 10: a lot of barishness about term needs to be more
Speaker 10: term premium.
Speaker 2: That's a very popular trade today.
Speaker 10: Another great statistic, only eight point seven percent of marketable
Speaker 10: treasure are twenty years or longer. If you think about
Speaker 10: the long aggregate index twenty years and longer, it's less
Speaker 10: than three trillion in market capitalization. You think about long
Speaker 10: duration assets, pension funds, insurance companies, you know estimates of
Speaker 10: around five trillion. The technicals are pretty profound. So you
Speaker 10: can push the long end of the market down in
Speaker 10: a speculative way. Over the short run, it's really hard
Speaker 10: to keep it down, and you've seen. This is the
Speaker 10: third sort of bond vigilanty scare quote unquote we've had
Speaker 10: over the past three years. The first two didn't really
Speaker 10: play out. My guess is that this one won't either.
Speaker 2: Russ Tom and I've been talking about over the last
Speaker 2: several days that thirty year treasury, which we don't talk
Speaker 2: about very much, but the thirty year treasury is now
Speaker 2: five point four percent. What does that tell you?
Speaker 10: Well, so I think if you are a long duration
Speaker 10: asset allocator five percent for the thirty year treasury or
Speaker 10: a thirty year corporate, that might yield to six percent
Speaker 10: is pretty attractive relative to the opportunity set. If I'm
Speaker 10: thinking about a sixty forty portfolio that's optimal, I want
Speaker 10: to own that front a belly expression that I talked
Speaker 10: about with corporate credit and securitized and if I want
Speaker 10: a long duration asset, truly, I'm gonna buy equities. So
Speaker 10: the sixty forty portfolio kind of gets you the best
Speaker 10: of both without owning the long.
Speaker 2: Again, smart people like you come in here all the time,
Speaker 2: and I hear that consistently. I want to own the
Speaker 2: short of the belly of the curb, not necessarily take
Speaker 2: the who's buying the duration? If you guys aren't buying it, well,
Speaker 2: so here anybody coming in her. I love buying long
Speaker 2: duration bonds.
Speaker 10: I think that there are a lot of you know,
Speaker 10: asset liability managers that need long duration assets. And so
Speaker 10: you think about again your insurance companies, your pension funds,
Speaker 10: and to them, you know, five or six percent. You
Speaker 10: think about what was possible in the decade leading into
Speaker 10: the pandemic, you know, looking at the long bomb with
Speaker 10: a one handle, you know, this is a much better.
Speaker 2: Environed Nobody wanted to talk to you back in the day. Yes,
Speaker 2: you didn't have any We were.
Speaker 6: Off script. But thats your bane. How do you fold the.
Speaker 3: Japanese challenge into our full faith and credit US market?
Speaker 3: Sarah Ellis at Deutsche Bank links in the Japanese people saying, Okay,
Speaker 3: I'm out of full faith in credit US. I'm coming
Speaker 3: over to Japan and I'm going to get a strong
Speaker 3: end because all that money's coming back.
Speaker 6: Do you buy the thesis?
Speaker 2: So it's a very different thesis.
Speaker 10: You know that their fiscal dynamics are far worse than
Speaker 10: they are in the United States. They've just come off
Speaker 10: of yield curve control, they're going through quantitative tightening, and
Speaker 10: they're bringing short term interest rates higher in deference to
Speaker 10: finally a normalization of inflation higher. It's a different set
Speaker 10: of circumstances there. Again, I'm going to turn it to
Speaker 10: what we do in the US. We're looking at opportunities
Speaker 10: if you take long Japanese government bonds and swap them
Speaker 10: back into dollars so that you don't take the currency risk,
Speaker 10: you can get over an eight percent yield. So we're
Speaker 10: looking at the world through the lens of what's optimal
Speaker 10: in building our portfolios today.
Speaker 3: Here's you valuable all features us on single best Idea.
Speaker 3: Russ brownback with us with black Rock Today, just encyclopedical.
Speaker 6: That was just absolutely wonderful.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
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Speaker 3: Terry Haynes joins US now with pengea policy. I can't
Speaker 3: say enough about his public service out and linked In,
Speaker 3: not only doing his consulting with penge in all the
Speaker 3: fancy stuff he does there, but he's been very generous
Speaker 3: out on LinkedIn to explain this moment, Terry. We're gonna
Speaker 3: be with you in a bid and I've got David
Speaker 3: Gerry here with his expertise to ask some.
Speaker 6: Questions as well.
Speaker 3: Terry, how will the Senate take this football from the house?
Speaker 11: Well, I think they take it very much in their
Speaker 11: own way. Tom, there is no requirement. That mean you've
Speaker 11: tied me up with Civics one oh one, So here
Speaker 11: I go. There's absolutely no requirement that the Senate take
Speaker 11: the House bill as anything definitive at all.
Speaker 6: Uh.
Speaker 11: You know it has it has passed the Chamber with
Speaker 11: all Republican votes and uh, and they have a tiny majority.
Speaker 11: But the Senate will do this as they wish. And
Speaker 11: I think what ends up happening here is, UH, they
Speaker 11: end up softening some of the harder edges. So I
Speaker 11: think the UH a lot of the debates about the
Speaker 11: harder edges and things like medicaid and UH and and
Speaker 11: phase outs for clean energy subsidies, things like that.
Speaker 7: Softened.
Speaker 11: Secondly, I do think you get a little bit of
Speaker 11: a nod to the rising bond vigilanteism by some additional uh,
Speaker 11: additional cuts to make sure that there's uh, there's a
Speaker 11: little bit more deficit reduction.
Speaker 6: Uh.
Speaker 11: And and part of that, I think for for your
Speaker 11: audience too, means that you've seen the high water mark
Speaker 11: of salt, Because what that means is because you know,
Speaker 11: they needed they needed salt to get votes in the House.
Speaker 11: They don't need salt to get votes of the Senate, right,
Speaker 11: so salts back back in the firing line.
Speaker 3: The President seems to have a great affinity to the
Speaker 3: gentleman from Louisiana, much more of a distant affinity to
Speaker 3: the gentleman from the Dakotas. What's the power that Senator
Speaker 3: Thune has in this debate.
Speaker 11: Well, he's the chief cat herder. Frankly, this is a
Speaker 11: unique process, again for your audience, because this reconciliation process
Speaker 11: is unique because it's pretty much the only the legislation
Speaker 11: where you need only bare majorities of the House and
Speaker 11: the Senate in order to pass something, So you don't
Speaker 11: need the usual sixty sixty vote roundup that provides a
Speaker 11: modicum of bipartisanship. What you need is a situation. What
Speaker 11: you need is fifty three Republican senators and that's pretty
Speaker 11: much it. So he's the chief cat herder here. But
Speaker 11: you know, the Senate's not like the House. The House
Speaker 11: is very majoritarian institution. Think of the Senate in this
Speaker 11: case as fifty three CEOs, all of whom's desires and
Speaker 11: whims have to be a So.
Speaker 3: It's like, Paul, it's like a ten of the masters, right,
Speaker 3: that's I guess.
Speaker 6: Across the nation, we say good morning to you.
Speaker 3: We are thrilled at this historic moment where the House
Speaker 3: passage of the bill David Gurr understands, and I don't
Speaker 3: that we have Terry Aynes with us with Pangaea policy
Speaker 3: a special edition certainly a special moment for Bloomberg surveillance.
Speaker 6: Sweeney and I were like, we have no clue what
Speaker 6: we're talking about.
Speaker 7: Bringing an adult David Gurra with Terry Haines.
Speaker 12: Terry, it's great to talk to you as always, and
Speaker 12: I'd love to kind of linger on the deadline for
Speaker 12: all of this if we could. So we have a
Speaker 12: House speaker who managed to get this through by the
Speaker 12: deadline that he imposed. Looming large here, of course, is
Speaker 12: that X state the need by which the lawmakers have
Speaker 12: to raise the dead ceiling before the warning that we've
Speaker 12: gotten from the Treasury secretary. How much of a forcing
Speaker 12: mechanism is that going to be? How do you see
Speaker 12: this playing out over the course of the summer.
Speaker 11: You know, I'm a big fan, even in my personal life,
Speaker 11: of the adage that work expands to fill the time
Speaker 11: a lot. It certainly certainly that's how the Congress operates.
Speaker 11: So what you get is so what you get is
Speaker 11: a situation where you know, whatever the X date is
Speaker 11: is kind of the ultimate backstop. But I'd urge folks
Speaker 11: to look at this in two ways. The X date
Speaker 11: is the ultimate backstop, whatever it is August, September, maybe
Speaker 11: even late July.
Speaker 6: But the other.
Speaker 11: Backstop, I think in the pold more political backstop is
Speaker 11: July fourth. The reason why I say that is that
Speaker 11: there is you've seen out of the House urgency to
Speaker 11: try to get this done, and momentum and building momentum
Speaker 11: to try to get this done. The President will certainly
Speaker 11: want to push on the Senate to keep that momentum
Speaker 11: building and keep a fire lit under them. Number one.
Speaker 11: Number two how the White House sees this, which is
Speaker 11: not irrelevant, is that July fourth is kind of a
Speaker 11: great X date because what you're going to have in
Speaker 11: July fourth is three vectors. Potentially the tax bill passing,
Speaker 11: but also for markets, the announcement of a lot of
Speaker 11: trade deals. Hopefully that happens before then, but you'll see
Speaker 11: a lot of trade deals and a lot of economic
Speaker 11: stimulus coming out of those trade deals. And at the
Speaker 11: same time, the report on reciprocal tariffs will come through.
Speaker 11: So you've got all these things that they hope combine
Speaker 11: to provide more of a direction for the economy of
Speaker 11: an answer for rising bond vigilanteism, and the idea that
Speaker 11: you're going to what you're going to see is an
Speaker 11: economic boost out of all this.
Speaker 6: I whan.
Speaker 12: I guess the President didn't stay up through the night,
Speaker 12: but we know he gets up for surveillance every morning,
Speaker 12: so he's likely listening and watch this vote unfold. But
Speaker 12: I want to ask you, Terry, if I could just
Speaker 12: about sequencing here, to use the Washington word, And there's
Speaker 12: been a lot of criticism here that the White House
Speaker 12: pushed for tariffs and trade modifications before they focused wholly
Speaker 12: on this bill. Now, with the benefit of hindsight, what
Speaker 12: was that a mistake?
Speaker 2: Have we overplayed that?
Speaker 12: Or was this a balancing act that the White House
Speaker 12: was able to successfully execute?
Speaker 11: I think a little bit more of the ladder. You know,
Speaker 11: I wouldn't call it it's an incomplete success at best,
Speaker 11: but certainly they've they have They've avoided the worst of
Speaker 11: a lot of the tariffs and put themselves on track
Speaker 11: to negotiate a lot of these major bipartisan deals. I'm
Speaker 11: not cheerleading when I say so, it's just, you know,
Speaker 11: that's the way the markets reacted ultimately.
Speaker 10: But you know, I.
Speaker 11: Urge people to consider that, for example, with China, what
Speaker 11: that is is a pause. Everyone wants to say, knowingly
Speaker 11: to themselves, to each other and themselves, well, you know
Speaker 11: Trump's backed off. Now, it's all good, But well these
Speaker 11: are all the same people that didn't think Trump was
Speaker 11: going to do what he did in April to begin with.
Speaker 11: So so i'd heard some some caution there. But the
Speaker 11: way they look at it, and I'm not absolving them
Speaker 11: by saying so, I'm just saying the way they look
Speaker 11: at it is, you know, he's got between now and
Speaker 11: next November, when he doesn't know if he has majorities
Speaker 11: or not, to accomplish a lot of things. So it
Speaker 11: was very important to get as going as possible, and
Speaker 11: that's what they've done.
Speaker 6: Across some Erica.
Speaker 3: A conversation this morning with David Gerra of Bloomberg News
Speaker 3: and Terry Haynes of Pangaea Policy will welcome all of you,
Speaker 3: particularly across YouTube. Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcast. It's a new
Speaker 3: digital distribution. Did a thing with Pimco last night, major
Speaker 3: shout out on Serious XCM. Do you listen Paul as
Speaker 3: Serious XM.
Speaker 6: One to twenty one? And well, I don't look like
Speaker 6: Howard Stern.
Speaker 3: I mean, it's not gonna gonna work, but we're thrilled
Speaker 3: to have Terry Haynes with us for this special edition
Speaker 3: of Bloomberg Surveillance Green on the screen.
Speaker 6: The market does a little better right now. The vic's
Speaker 6: twenty point three two.
Speaker 3: But you know, Paul, as you jump in here with
Speaker 3: mister Haynes and mister Gerra, the thirty year bond is
Speaker 3: a higher yield.
Speaker 7: Yes it is over the last twenty minutes, rounded up
Speaker 7: five point.
Speaker 6: House hunting this weekend is going to be.
Speaker 2: A little choungee. I'm not refinancing the mortgage on the
Speaker 2: Jersey Shore compound. Hey, Terry, the Senate gets back from
Speaker 2: a well deserved break on June second, then they're going
Speaker 2: to look at this bill. What's the Senate going to
Speaker 2: do with this bill?
Speaker 4: Terry?
Speaker 2: How does that work? Uh?
Speaker 11: Well, they'll they'll take it up in component parts. There's
Speaker 11: no requirement they take anything the House the House gives them,
Speaker 11: and they probably won't. H I think what they end
Speaker 11: up doing is softening the edges on on a lot
Speaker 11: of the harder things that needed to get done in
Speaker 11: order to attract Republican conservatives. Give them a fig leaf
Speaker 11: give them a fig leaf for for fiscal fiscal continents,
Speaker 11: if you will.
Speaker 6: Terry, Terry, I have to interrupt. The Speaker of the
Speaker 6: House is speaking. We always take.
Speaker 7: Someone from Louisiana over. Terry Hayes.
Speaker 6: Here he is Speaker Johnson.
Speaker 11: Celebrate a new golden age of America.
Speaker 6: Thank you for being here.
Speaker 8: I yield next to our leaders Slee and as a
Speaker 8: speaker said, it truly is morning in America again. You know,
Speaker 8: when you think about all of the work that's gone
Speaker 8: in to putting this bill together, it's one beautiful bill
Speaker 8: for a lot of reasons.
Speaker 6: There are a lot of.
Speaker 8: Really important wins for the American people in this bill.
Speaker 6: And we had eleven committees come together.
Speaker 8: In me in hearings. Some went on over twenty four hours.
Speaker 8: Rules Committee went over twenty hours. You had, you know,
Speaker 8: of course the Budget Committee Chairman Arrington is the lead
Speaker 8: author of the bill.
Speaker 6: All of the people that had been.
Speaker 8: Come together in our conference, and I think a lot
Speaker 8: of you know, we don't all think a light. Democrats
Speaker 8: made it very clear they didn't want to have any
Speaker 8: part in helping get America back on track again.
Speaker 6: But we were never deterred when this bill could have
Speaker 6: failed ten times over. We said we were going to.
Speaker 8: Get this done, and failure is not an option, and
Speaker 8: we meant it. We knew we were fighting for the
Speaker 8: families who had been struggling for way too long under
Speaker 8: the failed policies of Joe Biden and all the Democrats
Speaker 8: he did out.
Speaker 6: Of control of Washington for too long.
Speaker 8: We watched higher interest rates and higher inflation and lower
Speaker 8: wages and a demise of the American dream that we
Speaker 8: knew should not be permanent, but was only going to
Speaker 8: turn around if we passed a bill to get.
Speaker 3: America bas Steve Callice Scaliso, I should say back to
Speaker 3: back to Louisiana here, Paul Sweeney and Tom Keen, Lisa
Speaker 3: Matteo Patient with a data check coming up here, and
Speaker 3: in course Michael Barrow news including the difficult murders in
Speaker 3: Washington overnight. The special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance were focused
Speaker 3: on Washington.
Speaker 13: Good Morning ninety ninety one FM. Nathan with a great
Speaker 13: job earlier in the morning. Fantastic, I mean briefed in
Speaker 13: like way better we are. We have David Gerrow with us,
Speaker 13: who's smarter than we are. Also Terry Haynes, Patient to
Speaker 13: be with us as well.
Speaker 7: Terry color the.
Speaker 6: Moment here where.
Speaker 3: The House has two leaders from Louisiana versus the alleged Senate, Like,
Speaker 3: does the House leadership talk to the Senate? What's the
Speaker 3: body language in the white marble at Capitol Hill.
Speaker 2: Oh?
Speaker 11: Sure they talked to They talked to the Senate quite
Speaker 11: a lot. I think Johnson was over and the senators
Speaker 11: recently is Tuesday briefing senators on on progress and been
Speaker 11: begging them to take the House package, which which they
Speaker 11: won't do. So but he's got to do that.
Speaker 7: Yeah, they talk, They talk a lot.
Speaker 11: But you know, the the thing with politics that I
Speaker 11: think a lot of folks don't, No, it's it's it's just,
Speaker 11: you know, it's combat. Even when you have even when
Speaker 11: you're jostling around with friendlies, you know, it's uh it's uh,
Speaker 11: it's elbows up hockey or or elbows basketball, pick your
Speaker 11: sporting metaphor. But uh, you know, you you've got to
Speaker 11: fight for every inch and the houses. The House's job
Speaker 11: in most legislation is to overreach.
Speaker 6: Uh.
Speaker 11: You know, you've got kind of a purest imperative where
Speaker 11: you get you consciously reach you too much knowing you're
Speaker 11: going to get rolled back into the middle, and that's
Speaker 11: the Senate's job is to roll back into the middle.
Speaker 11: So then even in a reconciliation process where only the
Speaker 11: Republicans matter, that's exactly what they're to do here, because
Speaker 11: they've got a different calculus among their fifty three.
Speaker 3: David Gurrow, quickly here before you go to Terry Haynes,
Speaker 3: give us a vignette, David Gura, of your last week
Speaker 3: of covering Washington, one little interview or one little moment
Speaker 3: where you were like, are you kidding me?
Speaker 12: You know, I went down to Washington and sat down
Speaker 12: with the chair of the House Budget Committe. This was
Speaker 12: before the votes that took place over the weekend, and
Speaker 12: it was clear just in that conversation he's somebody who
Speaker 12: exudes a lot of confidences, Jody Rington, who has a
Speaker 12: lot of confidence about what he's able to do. But
Speaker 12: you saw in that committee in stark relief, just kind
Speaker 12: of the spectrum of Republicans in this day and age.
Speaker 12: And so he had to deal with Chip roy E
Speaker 12: of every conservative member of the House, trying to get
Speaker 12: all these folks in line. And I know that we
Speaker 12: had Terry Haynes here saying that John Thune's job is
Speaker 12: to be the chief cat heurder. There are a lot
Speaker 12: of cat heurders on Capitol Hill. In the chair of
Speaker 12: the House Budget Committee has been one of them. But
Speaker 12: he's gotten this through.
Speaker 5: Terry.
Speaker 12: Let me ask you just about the Medicaid issue in specific,
Speaker 12: because I think this is the one that's likely to
Speaker 12: be a hot button issue in the Senate as well
Speaker 12: as it wasn't in the House.
Speaker 7: Is there room?
Speaker 12: Is there is there a sense that senator senators are
Speaker 12: going to find it palable to put in these work
Speaker 12: requirements to make the kind of changes that we saw
Speaker 12: Republicans in the House agree to make.
Speaker 11: I think they do. I think their requirements get softened
Speaker 11: to some extent, though, Uh, you know, the the mistake
Speaker 11: again in my Civics one on one role this morning,
Speaker 11: the uh, I think sometimes people make the mistake of
Speaker 11: looking at these things in silos. In other words, you know,
Speaker 11: all the matters is the Medicaid things. Let's talk about that.
Speaker 4: Uh.
Speaker 11: They had they had a bogging to meet in the House,
Speaker 11: a specific number of efficiencies that the that the committee
Speaker 11: that oversees Medicaid needed to make. They met that in
Speaker 11: part through the work requirements and everything else. But I
Speaker 11: think the Senate approach is that with a lot of skepticism,
Speaker 11: and I do think a lot of those things get softened.
Speaker 11: You know, you've got to You've already had noises from
Speaker 11: a lot of relatively moderate Republican senators to that effect
Speaker 11: that they're concerned about concerned about how those how those
Speaker 11: work requirements and other things might roll out. That they
Speaker 11: will they'll want to make sure the focus truly is
Speaker 11: on what the President calls waste, fraud, and abuse. They'll
Speaker 11: generally be okay with that, but if it strays out
Speaker 11: into into substance, the Senate's going to be four square
Speaker 11: against that, not just because they want to keep the
Speaker 11: programs focus intact, but also because they understand that the
Speaker 11: Republicans generally in the midterms pay a large political price
Speaker 11: if that's not so. Uh, you know, what they need
Speaker 11: to be able to do is to go out when
Speaker 11: this bill is done and say, look, we didn't touch
Speaker 11: medicaid substance. All we're doing is creating efficiencies and how
Speaker 11: the program is administered, and they certainly need for that.
Speaker 11: They will say, so, you know, and we've fixed that
Speaker 11: so you know, I think that's going to be the
Speaker 11: Senate's function, and if to the extent that they lose
Speaker 11: some savings there, they look for savings elsewhere, which is
Speaker 11: one reason, as I say, I think things like Salter
Speaker 11: at risk.
Speaker 2: Terry, how big of a win is this for President Trump?
Speaker 11: It's the big win and that's it, you know, and
Speaker 11: being able to heard these particularly frascius Cats, get things
Speaker 11: done and get them done on time. With the creation
Speaker 11: of some momentum around this in the first half of
Speaker 11: the year, when by comparison, the twenty seventeen tax bill
Speaker 11: took literally all year, it didn't didn't go to final
Speaker 11: until December, that's a big accomplishment. That shows a lot
Speaker 11: of urgency on the part of Republicans, So that's positive
Speaker 11: for them.
Speaker 6: You know.
Speaker 11: Trick is to keep the fire lit under the Senate
Speaker 11: and make sure that he doesn't need to use is
Speaker 11: the ultimate backstop of the UH of the debt ceiling
Speaker 11: x states as something UH. But you know, I can
Speaker 11: actually roll that forward and make that happen even faster,
Speaker 11: which probably helps him economically as well worldwide.
Speaker 3: Terry Hayes with this Pangaea policy and David Gura of
Speaker 3: the big take in Bloomberg News.
Speaker 7: Ger and I and Lisa were in awe of discipline.
Speaker 7: Paul Sweeney, he's yet to ask about salt for those.
Speaker 3: For those, it's you know, it's just a New York, Paul,
Speaker 3: it's a California in four or five other states.
Speaker 2: Is Matt Miller has been pounding on this with the
Speaker 2: window here of our studio.
Speaker 7: You can't shut him up.
Speaker 2: So, Terry, I mean, salt, salt, it's it's a big issue.
Speaker 2: It's where are we on this? So, Terry, how does
Speaker 2: this salt situation stack up?
Speaker 6: Well?
Speaker 11: I think it's uh, yeah, I think And I told
Speaker 11: markets yesterday, I thought that what they had to look
Speaker 11: out for here is the you know, not not taking
Speaker 11: their their big salts and uh and going away. But
Speaker 11: because I think the world in the Senate's going to
Speaker 11: be slid light salt or no salt pretent really really yeah,
Speaker 11: I think they probably make a nod to it in
Speaker 11: the end, but much less. Uh. And the reason simple,
Speaker 11: The only reason why salt is even in this bill
Speaker 11: is because of politics. They need to get a few
Speaker 11: New York, New Jersey, California members on board and uh,
Speaker 11: but that really doesn't exist in the Senate today. I'm
Speaker 11: not aware of a single senator who you know, who
Speaker 11: it's a make or break vote for. And of course
Speaker 11: all the all the blue state senators are all Democrats,
Speaker 11: so uh, there's no need to to coddle there. So uh,
Speaker 11: you know you did? I think you have a haircut
Speaker 11: here from from from what's the House bill?
Speaker 3: If folks, it's a clinic with Terry Haynes. I can't
Speaker 3: say enough his efforts out on LinkedIn. Just literally it's
Speaker 3: worth it to sign up for LinkedIn, just to get
Speaker 3: penji up policy and the daily brief from Terry Hayes
Speaker 3: that you see out there. Terry, Thank you, generous of
Speaker 3: you at this historic moment to be with.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay.
Speaker 9: And Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.
Speaker 1: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube
Speaker 1: and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.
Speaker 2: Mark Douglas is the CEO of a company called Mountain
Speaker 2: and the company just went public today. They're going to
Speaker 2: start training today. MNTN is a ticker symbol. They raised
Speaker 2: one hundred and eighty seven million dollars. They sold eleven
Speaker 2: point seven million shares at sixteen bucks, So a solid
Speaker 2: start there for Mountain Marks on the I believe in
Speaker 2: your Socker chains floor right now, Mark Douglas, CEO Mountain
Speaker 2: joins us. Mark, talk to us about the IPO process here.
Speaker 2: What was a message you guys were delivering to prospective
Speaker 2: shareholders here during your IPO.
Speaker 14: Well, I think the key message was that we had
Speaker 14: created a new segment of the television advertising market where
Speaker 14: we're bringing small and mid sized companies into the market
Speaker 14: for the first time on our platform where they can
Speaker 14: advertise on TV the same way they could previously do.
Speaker 2: On search and social.
Speaker 14: And so our customers have responded to that and we
Speaker 14: very please, like all the investors we met with on
Speaker 14: the road show responded just as well.
Speaker 3: When you go into a meeting, do you take Ryan
Speaker 3: Reynolds into the meeting.
Speaker 14: Well, he showed up on the teaching you know, the
Speaker 14: first day of a road show you meet with all
Speaker 14: the banks and all the people, and he was there.
Speaker 14: Was it was pretty fun meeting, so we had a
Speaker 14: good time.
Speaker 6: So what's the distinction here? Help Paul and me. We're
Speaker 6: on on YouTube it's building every day.
Speaker 3: Mark, We're just overwhelmed by the you know, as Colin
Speaker 3: of the Twins says, a discoverability factor.
Speaker 7: How is ed revenue going to fold into YouTube.
Speaker 3: Creators, whether they're hipsters like Lisa Mateo's kids or their
Speaker 3: fossils like me.
Speaker 14: Yeah, so YouTube, something like YouTube, it's not competing with
Speaker 14: something like stream with streaming television, which is the market
Speaker 14: that we're in. It's actually people are just expanding their
Speaker 14: entertainment consumption. So more people watch TV a day than
Speaker 14: use social media. It's the highest engagement channel of any
Speaker 14: entertainment medium. So you see streaming growing obviously, YouTube, social
Speaker 14: all continue to grow as people just consume more content
Speaker 14: and as a result, you know, companies or small mid
Speaker 14: sized businesses can now connect with those people and do
Speaker 14: that with Mountain, do that obviously with Google and so forth.
Speaker 14: So we're you know, it's it's great for everyone.
Speaker 6: Mark.
Speaker 2: The month of May is a very important part of
Speaker 2: the year for global television business. Here we have the
Speaker 2: upfronts where the broadcasting cable networks and pretty much everybody
Speaker 2: else out there is trying to sell adspace shows. Everybody
Speaker 2: what they're going to be broadcasting in the upcoming year
Speaker 2: and they ask advertisers to step up and commit dollars
Speaker 2: for the upcoming levision decision. How are you episode fronts
Speaker 2: this year and how would you characterize the upfronts this year?
Speaker 2: And what are advertisers thinking about with maybe some uncertain
Speaker 2: economic times.
Speaker 14: Yeah, so I think the advertisers are there for the upfronts.
Speaker 14: And the thing that I think the whole industry is
Speaker 14: really excited about is live sports on streaming. So you
Speaker 14: see ESPN and other networks really focused on live sports
Speaker 14: is kind of number one conversation I have with the
Speaker 14: leaders at these networks. And so I think the upfronts
Speaker 14: will be fine. I think our customers will do great.
Speaker 14: They'll they'll won't participate in the upfronts, but they will
Speaker 14: participate in the availability of live sports is kind of
Speaker 14: the year of live sports.
Speaker 2: So that's what you're going to see.
Speaker 3: Mark Douglas, thank you for the time. Is the chief
Speaker 3: executive officer Mountain. The symbol mm TN their initial public
Speaker 3: offering today.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live
Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just
Speaker 1: say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 6: Lisa Matteo. Here she is with newspapers.
Speaker 15: Okay, this is going to be all about the Wellness Hour.
Speaker 7: Okay, help.
Speaker 15: Captain, I'm all about the wellness And this is the
Speaker 15: story from the New York Times about those wearable devices.
Speaker 15: You heard it, like the r ring, the Apple watches,
Speaker 15: the fit bits. Okay, so these are devices that track
Speaker 15: your biometric data, right, you have body temperature, heart rate,
Speaker 15: blood pressure, how much rem sleep you get. But a
Speaker 15: lot of users say they enjoy it because it keeps
Speaker 15: them on top of, you know, all their data. But
Speaker 15: others are saying it's starting to make them anxious. They're
Speaker 15: getting a little bit compulsive, like they're checking their stats
Speaker 15: all the time. They're freaking out, they're trying to make
Speaker 15: an appointment for the doctor. The doctor can't see them,
Speaker 15: so then their stats good even worse. So it's becoming
Speaker 15: this whole phenomenon like, yes, you know, it's great, but
Speaker 15: does it also make you a little bit too self conscious?
Speaker 6: Oh of course, did you check?
Speaker 7: I just got the watch on her risk.
Speaker 15: Have to watch, but I just use it to track
Speaker 15: like my workouts watch.
Speaker 3: We have two eye watches at home that sit on
Speaker 3: the table. We couldn't figure out how to do it.
Speaker 3: It's too complex.
Speaker 15: I mean it's pretty good, like the heart, like if
Speaker 15: I ever feel my heart kind of pacing, I'll check it.
Speaker 15: I can do it, you know here on my watch
Speaker 15: and just say.
Speaker 2: What do you do? And then I.
Speaker 3: Exactly, I'm glad that my heart was pacing what she
Speaker 3: was wearing me and meal Matt Gala and you know,
Speaker 3: thank god I had my apple I watched to say.
Speaker 2: Exactly where you god steps on Tuesday? How about that?
Speaker 6: See?
Speaker 7: And how do you know that?
Speaker 6: Do you need to do ten thousands stations?
Speaker 15: That is a recommended That is a recommended ten thousands?
Speaker 6: Do you do ten thousand steps to day?
Speaker 8: I do?
Speaker 15: I walked to and from the train and subway back home.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I do. And the workout count too.
Speaker 15: Okay, this one's tough.
Speaker 2: Okay.
Speaker 15: So we were talking about the next Pacers game, right, Okay,
Speaker 15: a lot of people paid some big bucks to watch.
Speaker 2: And excluse at the garden.
Speaker 15: It's at a record for seat prices. So this is
Speaker 15: according to boardroom. They pointed to data from tickpic and
Speaker 15: it shows the average price for tickets to Game one
Speaker 15: at the Garden record setting one and ninety three dollars,
Speaker 15: making it the most expensive NBA Conference Final game ever. Now,
Speaker 15: if you look at it just getting in the door, Okay,
Speaker 15: the current get in price for Game one is five hundred.
Speaker 15: Was five hundred and eighty dollars. That's nearly double the
Speaker 15: price cab tag for Game three over in Indianapolis. So
Speaker 15: it's just the anticipation, right, We've been talking about this.
Speaker 15: People have been waiting for this time, and they're willing
Speaker 15: to pay whether they win or not.
Speaker 3: I've been like two games in my life. I'm ignorant,
Speaker 3: Paul is the magic of the NBA. There's no boards
Speaker 3: and glass between the fans and.
Speaker 10: The ice, and there's no mask the.
Speaker 2: Player times, there's no mass, there's noll and so you
Speaker 2: really get to know who these people are and.
Speaker 6: It's almost like a gladiator thing.
Speaker 2: In The NBA does a great great job of developing
Speaker 2: and celebrating and highlighting and showcasing their store, whether it's
Speaker 2: you know, Michael Jordan or Lebron James or Steph Curry
Speaker 2: or whomever. They do a great job doing that, and
Speaker 2: it's it's you know, after the NFL, it's the NBA game.
Speaker 15: Truth was, I was looking at StubHub for you for
Speaker 15: the next game courtside eleven thousand dollars and then at
Speaker 15: the top, yeah, at per ticket at the top, way
Speaker 15: at the top, just over seven hundred bucks.
Speaker 5: Tickets still available.
Speaker 7: Okay, okay, one.
Speaker 15: More story slipping quick, Okay, I'll slip it in here.
Speaker 2: Okay.
Speaker 15: So Wall Street Journal says you can still negotiate a
Speaker 15: best and final offer even though it's a competitive labor market.
Speaker 15: Even if the salary is set. They say there's other
Speaker 15: places for wiggle room. So they say, ask for things
Speaker 15: like signing bonus, more flexible schedule, bigger title, maybe an
Speaker 15: extra week of vacation. Some people are doing like as is,
Speaker 15: but with an agreement to revisit this later. But they
Speaker 15: say it's not something for everyone. You know, you have
Speaker 15: to really be competitive and be in there.
Speaker 8: Yes.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
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