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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern

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Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

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Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Well.

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Speaker 3: Stephanie Roth joins US now chief economist at Wolf Research.

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Speaker 3: The fact, Stephanie is I got a thirty year bond.

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Speaker 3: Lisa was talking it was a five eleven rounded up,

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Speaker 3: it's now a five thirteen. Are the bonvigilantes telling the

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Speaker 3: politicians what to do and does it then amend your

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Speaker 3: economic forecasts?

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Speaker 4: I think there might be work that the bond vigilantes

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Speaker 4: will continue to do in the next.

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Speaker 5: Couple of weeks.

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Speaker 4: At this point, there's not enough that would really change policy,

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Speaker 4: but there's a real reality that we might have yields

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Speaker 4: continue to sell off such that it makes policymakers blink

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Speaker 4: to some extent.

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Speaker 5: But we are tire there to be clear.

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Speaker 6: You'll hire price down years.

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Speaker 4: Ye'll higher price down, but we are not there such

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Speaker 4: that at this point, the you know, the bill will

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Speaker 4: continue to move on until this happens such that it

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Speaker 4: creates a big sell off inequities. This is not our

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Speaker 4: base case, but there's a real possibility of it.

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Speaker 3: Is a five thirteen thirty year bond and eight percent mortgage.

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Speaker 2: I don't know, it's not mean good folks that are

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Speaker 2: good about here go out and try to buy a

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Speaker 2: house this weekend. So Stephanie, what are you guys thinking

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Speaker 2: about this economy here? I mean again, as we think

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Speaker 2: about the tariffs. I was just reading a note by

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Speaker 2: Torsen Slock. He makes it very simple. You know, tariffs

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Speaker 2: were about three percent. Now they're on a weighted basis

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Speaker 2: about eighteen percent. That's got to impact the economy. Do

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Speaker 2: you guys have a recession call out there, or do

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Speaker 2: you just have a slowing economy.

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Speaker 4: We don't have a recession call. We're looking for Actually,

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Speaker 4: growth could be above one percent this year, really okay,

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Speaker 4: somewhere between one and one and a half percent. So

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Speaker 4: you do have a big tariff hit to the economy.

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Speaker 4: With the rollbacks of China that was significant.

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Speaker 2: Yep.

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Speaker 4: So tariffs could weigh on the economy by about seventy

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Speaker 4: basis points. But the Reconciliation bill has a bit of

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Speaker 4: a positive impact as well. Why because the business provisions

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Speaker 4: do get pulled forward into twenty twenty five, so about

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Speaker 4: twenty basis.

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Speaker 3: So it has stimulus like COVID type of stimulus effect.

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Speaker 4: A lot more, a lot more modest this year. Next

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Speaker 4: year we should have actually a decent amount of stimulus

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Speaker 4: from this bill. Combination of the business provisions as well

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Speaker 4: as the individual provisions, things like no tax on tips,

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Speaker 4: no tax on overtime, that really has an impact next year.

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Speaker 2: So that this all flows down to the consumer, which

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Speaker 2: of course is seventy percent of this US economy. How

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Speaker 2: is the consumer out there from your perspective, So part of.

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Speaker 5: The consumer's okay, nothing that bad has happened to them.

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Speaker 4: Jobs continue to grow, they continue to have solid wage gains,

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Speaker 4: and as long unless that can change is the consumer

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Speaker 4: will continue to chug along.

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Speaker 3: Here, what's the biggest mystery of your research forecast? You

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Speaker 3: got an Excel spreadsheet. She's awesome at it, so yeah,

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Speaker 3: she does formulus like no one. What's the biggest hole

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Speaker 3: in that Excel spreadsheet?

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Speaker 6: The biggest secret?

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Speaker 4: I think the real question is the multiplier effect from

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Speaker 4: the tariffs. So you could say the tariff dollars raised,

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Speaker 4: have every dollar that gets raised from tariffs has a

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Speaker 4: one dollar impact on GDP. That's kind of the more

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Speaker 4: extreme outlook, in which case you could have a bigger

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Speaker 4: impact negative impact on the economy this year, or you

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Speaker 4: could say it has a more you know, the lower

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Speaker 4: end of the range, kind of zero point five. So

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Speaker 4: for every dollar that's raised in tariffs, it's about a

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Speaker 4: fifty cent hit two to GDP, which would then make

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Speaker 4: it a lot more modest. And the real impact here,

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Speaker 4: or the question is to what extent there's uncertainty that

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Speaker 4: really weighs in the economy, And being that Trump has

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Speaker 4: paired back to tariffs, it suggests a slightly lower multiplier

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Speaker 4: on this.

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Speaker 3: Paul Gary out on the The Light Chat on YouTube,

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Speaker 3: I like learn show on this. I'm sorry, Gary kills

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Speaker 3: it welcome back to the Vulcar era.

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Speaker 6: Young pupps. It's coming.

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Speaker 3: I mean, it's inflammatory exactly, but I'm watching the thirty

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Speaker 3: year bond here. It's seven point rounded up five excuse me,

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Speaker 3: five point one three percent. It's not Vulcar, but it's

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Speaker 3: a shift, to.

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Speaker 6: Say the least.

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Speaker 2: Eric from the back room rights in Anna Wang is

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Speaker 2: arguing tariff revenue will neutralize the deficit impact.

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Speaker 6: That's my next.

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Speaker 3: Question is Stephanie, thank you doctor Wang for I mean,

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Speaker 3: we got help from girl.

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Speaker 6: We got help from Wang. Today it's too too long.

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Speaker 7: Everybody's terrors bringing money right there?

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Speaker 6: Where's it go?

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Speaker 4: So base cases the tariffs bring in three to four

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Speaker 4: hundred billion dollars a year, which is not nothing. It

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Speaker 4: does help to offset the deficit impact. Granted, the deficit

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Speaker 4: is still going to be somewhere between six and seven

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Speaker 4: percent over the next decade, so it's really not great.

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Speaker 4: In a positive scenario, maybe you're in the five percent range,

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Speaker 4: but you're so certainly nowhere near the three percent that

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Speaker 4: Besson has been targeting.

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Speaker 2: So what is FED Chairman J. Paldow. He looks at

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Speaker 2: this legislation today, he says, does it change his outlook

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Speaker 2: at all about how he thinks about interest rates for

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Speaker 2: this economy?

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Speaker 8: Yeah?

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Speaker 4: I think at the margin, it reduces the odds that

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Speaker 4: the FED able to cut this year.

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Speaker 5: We technically have two.

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Speaker 4: Cuts on paper, but the odds are certainly lower than

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Speaker 4: that rather than more so, especially when you think about

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Speaker 4: the sort of the net impact of tariffs, which now

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Speaker 4: there's a lot less uncertainty, there's less concern around empty shelves,

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Speaker 4: which meets the consumer more likely to spend, and we

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Speaker 4: have a bit of a fiscal stimulus this year helping

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Speaker 4: to offset some of the tariff drag. And the next

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Speaker 4: year we're just talking about net fiscal stimulus, so growth

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Speaker 4: potentially above two percent.

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Speaker 3: The special edition of Bloomberg Surveying. That's a historic moment

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Speaker 3: for those waking up across America.

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Speaker 6: Two minutes to the hour this.

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Speaker 3: Morning, Nathan Hager on air, the House passed this historic

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Speaker 3: text legislation. Thank you Terry Haynes and David Gurra for

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Speaker 3: wisdom here and Stephanie Roth briefness right now with Wolf

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Speaker 3: Research and Anna Wong out moments ago with an extensive

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Speaker 3: node including work Paul from the Yale Budget Lab and

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Speaker 3: the Text Foundation, I mean, Ernie Tedesky and the team,

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Speaker 3: and Maam mcguinnis these are our budget people folk.

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Speaker 7: We will have them on air in the coming days.

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Speaker 3: Is Stephanie is Eric mentioned with the team doctor Wang

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Speaker 3: Paul mentioning.

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Speaker 6: You know what terror springing money they do?

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Speaker 2: They do and you know maybe it's the tariffs. Plus

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Speaker 2: this House budget could be near deficit neutral, according to

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Speaker 2: Enna Wong. So Stephanie, what's the next data point for you?

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Speaker 2: What's the big issue for you to see where this

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Speaker 2: economy maybe tips on the margin over the next six months.

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Speaker 2: What are you looking for?

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Speaker 7: Is it I'd like her to say six to twelve hours, yes, exactly?

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Speaker 2: Is that labor? Is it bed? What are you looking at?

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Speaker 5: The next thing to watch out for is labor.

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Speaker 4: So one thing that we're watching, especially after the Supreme

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Speaker 4: Court ruled on Venezuelan's that their TPS is going to

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Speaker 4: be expiring for them, which is a hawk shoutcome that

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Speaker 4: suggests that the program chn v.

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Speaker 5: Cuba hating a Garab woman whale.

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Speaker 4: There's about five hundred thousand people that's held up in

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Speaker 4: courts and Trump tried to end all of their visas overnight.

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Speaker 4: This suggests that the margin that these visas might also

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Speaker 4: be ruled in a similar way, such that we might

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Speaker 4: lose about five hundred thousand people from.

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Speaker 5: The labor force overnight.

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Speaker 4: So the thing that we're going to be watching from

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Speaker 4: the labor market reports is what's happening with the foreign

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Speaker 4: born workforce and are we're starting to see non farm

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Speaker 4: pails shift down substantially because of the slowdown in immigration.

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Speaker 6: Sephanie, we're off bond strategists with us.

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Speaker 3: I got a ten year real yield not breaking out yet,

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Speaker 3: but a two point two three percent up substantially off

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Speaker 3: of the negative one percent COVID thing. I'm not back

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Speaker 3: to a four percent real yield of the year two thousand.

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Speaker 3: But do you just assume a higher inflation just to

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Speaker 3: yield dampen's business or is that an animal spirit that

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Speaker 3: folds into nominal GDP?

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Speaker 8: Yeah?

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Speaker 4: I mean I think it could damp into some extent,

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Speaker 4: But for now we might be in an environment where

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Speaker 4: growth is actually just surprising to the upside.

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Speaker 3: Well, that's what President Trump's betting on. This is a

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Speaker 3: growthiness is there?

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Speaker 2: Yep?

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Speaker 4: And that might be the case, even though we're still

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Speaker 4: talking about one percent GDP growth. It's not that great

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Speaker 4: for this year, but for next year looking ahead, growth

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Speaker 4: might actually be pretty Twenty seconds.

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Speaker 3: What are you writing about this morning? Just give me

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Speaker 3: a theme there. I don't want to take it away

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Speaker 3: from Wolf Research clients, but what's a number one message

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Speaker 3: from you this morning to your clients?

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Speaker 4: The main message we wrote back this morning was on

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Speaker 4: the reconciliation bill. The main thing is there's there's hidden

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Speaker 4: hidden sort of spending here, in the sense that a

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Speaker 4: lot of the provisions end after four years, but if

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Speaker 4: they are extended, which is largely the assumption, that's an

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Speaker 4: additional one point two five trillion dollars in addition to

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Speaker 4: the price tag of this bill.

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Speaker 5: This is what the bond market Brian.

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Speaker 6: Jeff I love this.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern.

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Speaker 3: Russ brown Beck joins us to say is it black

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Speaker 3: Rock is barely descriptive of the huge perspective.

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Speaker 6: And the intelligence of his note.

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Speaker 3: The fancy title is Global Macro Positioning Team, which means

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Speaker 3: that Hobart years ago, he's the one that bought the

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Speaker 3: cases of Jenny Kremel.

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Speaker 2: In high school. I'm in college. I went up to

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Speaker 2: visit a high school buddy mine in Hobart February.

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Speaker 6: February night. It was the coldest.

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Speaker 2: Weather I ever experienced. I was darn near in Canada.

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Speaker 2: I felt like, what am I doing? That's the cold

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Speaker 2: and dark, cold and dark exactly. That's where Russ sped

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Speaker 2: for years out of Hobart. So, Russ, what are you

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Speaker 2: doing with this market here? I mean, there's so much uncertainty.

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Speaker 2: We've seen the equity markets go down twenty percent, retrace

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Speaker 2: a lot of that. We had a crazy treasury market

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Speaker 2: a couple of months ago. How are you guys just

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Speaker 2: sitting back and saying, where do we want to be

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Speaker 2: positioned in this kind of environment?

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Speaker 9: Yep?

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Speaker 10: So this is the super Bowl for macro. Okay, you

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Speaker 10: know the the uncertainty. And by the way, the uncertainty

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Speaker 10: has been with us for several years. And when we

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Speaker 10: had a historic FED tightening cycle, a regional banking crisis

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Speaker 10: that was scary in the moment, we had an acrimonious,

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Speaker 10: historic election last year, and now you know, an uncertain

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Speaker 10: period as policy gets rolled out, and so you know,

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Speaker 10: it's a wonderful opportunity in fixed income y'all. In an

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Speaker 10: earlier segment, we're talking about high real yields. It's an

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Speaker 10: incredible opportunity in fixed income markets to harness very attractive

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Speaker 10: income and do so in a very optimized way, high quality.

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Speaker 3: But oh wise, when folks I can't say enough about

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Speaker 3: the acuity of his note. We could literally do one

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Speaker 3: hour through us and go two sentences by two sentences

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Speaker 3: through the intelligence of his note.

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Speaker 6: Okay, that's new money captures a real yield.

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Speaker 3: New money captures a you know, ten year yield to

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Speaker 3: four point six one percent.

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Speaker 7: Wow.

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Speaker 3: But the old buddies seeing price go down? Do people

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Speaker 3: take losses? How does like if you're in JGB twenty year,

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Speaker 3: you got a loss. In the US you got a loss?

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Speaker 3: Do you take losses?

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Speaker 6: Here?

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Speaker 10: So again you're pointing to the tactical opportunities that exist.

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Speaker 10: The way we position our multisector portfolios is to avoid

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Speaker 10: those longer duration assets that have all that volatility today.

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Speaker 10: And if you're in the front to the belly of

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Speaker 10: the curve, and then you're marrying corporate credit and securitized

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Speaker 10: assets on top of that, you know you're getting enough

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Speaker 10: income where you can ride out short term periods of

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Speaker 10: volatility that give you price losses from one day to

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Speaker 10: the next. Over the course of the year, that carry

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Speaker 10: just builds up night.

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Speaker 3: How do you this is like with Ira Jersey here

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Speaker 3: it'll be the same question, how do you feel the

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Speaker 3: losses in long term paper?

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Speaker 6: Will clear just done?

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Speaker 3: It? To go to Friedrich Kayak on a Hiachian basis,

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Speaker 3: what's the process to clear a twenty year yield loss?

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Speaker 10: You know, I actually think that question was answered in

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Speaker 10: twenty twenty two. That was the year that the aggregate index,

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Speaker 10: as a proxy for the fixed income market, it broke.

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Speaker 10: It had its worst down year in a generation. And

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Speaker 10: so here we are three years later, and everything seems

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Speaker 10: to be functioning reasonably well. So I think I think

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Speaker 10: we've learned that lesson. You always like to say, as

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Speaker 10: the X axis extends, you know, you have more certainties.

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Speaker 3: Lisa, somebody listens to the show. Okay, is the axis,

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Speaker 3: folks whore ripping up the script? Is the xaxis given

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Speaker 3: this legislation, given the uncertainty of the.

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Speaker 6: Secretary of Treasure in Trump? Is the xaxis.

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Speaker 3: Logarithmic where there's a non linear dynamic in time right now?

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Speaker 10: So you know, again I talked about it being the

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Speaker 10: super Bowl of macro. You know this the EBB and flow.

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Speaker 10: The narrative has been so negative, and yet underpinning all

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Speaker 10: of it is I think an incredible positive story for fundamentals,

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Speaker 10: particularly as it pertains to corporate credit, securitized assets and

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Speaker 10: the like. So, you know, I love a wall of

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Speaker 10: worry in markets, and I think underpinning it all is

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Speaker 10: an optimism.

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Speaker 2: We talked about it a lot late last year. We

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Speaker 2: forgot all about it.

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Speaker 10: All we talk about is what's what's scary today?

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Speaker 2: How about credit? Here, Russ, how much credit risk are

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Speaker 2: you guys taking in at black Rock these days?

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Speaker 10: So the credit markets are higher quality than they've really

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Speaker 10: ever been, certainly in my career, and they're supported by

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Speaker 10: really profound technicals. Here's a great statistic for you, so

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Speaker 10: I for you're cocktail party statistics, exactly, I need it.

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Speaker 10: The entire high yield market the index market capitalization one

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Speaker 10: point four trillion dollars. The treasury market grows by that

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Speaker 10: size every nine months by virtue of the deficit. So

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Speaker 10: it speaks to the deficit of yielding assets in market today.

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Speaker 10: And when you marry that with really solid fundamentals that

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Speaker 10: underpin credit quality, it's it's it's really just about where

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Speaker 10: is optimal. So you know, back when spreads widened in

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Speaker 10: the tariff event of April, we wanted to move into

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Speaker 10: high quality assets that had widened a significant amount those

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Speaker 10: of retraced. Now we're thinking about moving down the stack

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Speaker 10: a little bit opportunistically, taking advantage of technicals and those

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Speaker 10: positive fundamentals.

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Speaker 2: How do you guys deal with private credit that's been

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Speaker 2: such a growth story over the last fifteen years. That

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Speaker 2: was in early in our careers we didn't have really

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Speaker 2: probably had private equity, We didn't really have private credit.

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Speaker 2: Now it's become such a big asset class. How do

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Speaker 2: you guys think about that?

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Speaker 10: Another awesome opportunity for us. You know, we don't really

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Speaker 10: make much of a delineation between.

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Speaker 7: Public and private markets.

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Speaker 10: You look first and you say, am I getting enough

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Speaker 10: risk premium on the asset? And secondly, am I getting

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Speaker 10: enough illiquidity premium? And if you are, then it belongs

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Speaker 10: in the portfolio to the work of.

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Speaker 3: This is a Fidelty years ago, the giant George Vanderhyden

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Speaker 3: and I think of Jeff Winnick and others the parlor

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Speaker 3: game of buying a twenty year zero Are you so

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Speaker 3: optimistic about total return, price up, yield down that you

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Speaker 3: can speculate on a long duration zero coupon bond full

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Speaker 3: of faith and credit?

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Speaker 10: So you know, again, we're going to look for the

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Speaker 10: optimal opportunity set. We don't think it's at the back

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Speaker 10: end of the curve. I will say, you know, there's

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Speaker 10: a lot of barishness about term needs to be more

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Speaker 10: term premium.

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Speaker 2: That's a very popular trade today.

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Speaker 10: Another great statistic, only eight point seven percent of marketable

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Speaker 10: treasure are twenty years or longer. If you think about

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Speaker 10: the long aggregate index twenty years and longer, it's less

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Speaker 10: than three trillion in market capitalization. You think about long

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Speaker 10: duration assets, pension funds, insurance companies, you know estimates of

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Speaker 10: around five trillion. The technicals are pretty profound. So you

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Speaker 10: can push the long end of the market down in

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Speaker 10: a speculative way. Over the short run, it's really hard

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Speaker 10: to keep it down, and you've seen. This is the

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Speaker 10: third sort of bond vigilanty scare quote unquote we've had

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Speaker 10: over the past three years. The first two didn't really

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Speaker 10: play out. My guess is that this one won't either.

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Speaker 2: Russ Tom and I've been talking about over the last

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Speaker 2: several days that thirty year treasury, which we don't talk

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Speaker 2: about very much, but the thirty year treasury is now

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Speaker 2: five point four percent. What does that tell you?

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Speaker 10: Well, so I think if you are a long duration

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Speaker 10: asset allocator five percent for the thirty year treasury or

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Speaker 10: a thirty year corporate, that might yield to six percent

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Speaker 10: is pretty attractive relative to the opportunity set. If I'm

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Speaker 10: thinking about a sixty forty portfolio that's optimal, I want

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Speaker 10: to own that front a belly expression that I talked

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Speaker 10: about with corporate credit and securitized and if I want

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Speaker 10: a long duration asset, truly, I'm gonna buy equities. So

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Speaker 10: the sixty forty portfolio kind of gets you the best

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Speaker 10: of both without owning the long.

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Speaker 2: Again, smart people like you come in here all the time,

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Speaker 2: and I hear that consistently. I want to own the

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Speaker 2: short of the belly of the curb, not necessarily take

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Speaker 2: the who's buying the duration? If you guys aren't buying it, well,

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Speaker 2: so here anybody coming in her. I love buying long

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Speaker 2: duration bonds.

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Speaker 10: I think that there are a lot of you know,

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Speaker 10: asset liability managers that need long duration assets. And so

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Speaker 10: you think about again your insurance companies, your pension funds,

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Speaker 10: and to them, you know, five or six percent. You

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Speaker 10: think about what was possible in the decade leading into

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Speaker 10: the pandemic, you know, looking at the long bomb with

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Speaker 10: a one handle, you know, this is a much better.

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Speaker 2: Environed Nobody wanted to talk to you back in the day. Yes,

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Speaker 2: you didn't have any We were.

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Speaker 6: Off script. But thats your bane. How do you fold the.

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Speaker 3: Japanese challenge into our full faith and credit US market?

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Speaker 3: Sarah Ellis at Deutsche Bank links in the Japanese people saying, Okay,

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Speaker 3: I'm out of full faith in credit US. I'm coming

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Speaker 3: over to Japan and I'm going to get a strong

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Speaker 3: end because all that money's coming back.

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Speaker 6: Do you buy the thesis?

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Speaker 2: So it's a very different thesis.

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Speaker 10: You know that their fiscal dynamics are far worse than

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Speaker 10: they are in the United States. They've just come off

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Speaker 10: of yield curve control, they're going through quantitative tightening, and

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Speaker 10: they're bringing short term interest rates higher in deference to

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Speaker 10: finally a normalization of inflation higher. It's a different set

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Speaker 10: of circumstances there. Again, I'm going to turn it to

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Speaker 10: what we do in the US. We're looking at opportunities

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Speaker 10: if you take long Japanese government bonds and swap them

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Speaker 10: back into dollars so that you don't take the currency risk,

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Speaker 10: you can get over an eight percent yield. So we're

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Speaker 10: looking at the world through the lens of what's optimal

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Speaker 10: in building our portfolios today.

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Speaker 3: Here's you valuable all features us on single best Idea.

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Speaker 3: Russ brownback with us with black Rock Today, just encyclopedical.

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Speaker 6: That was just absolutely wonderful.

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Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

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Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay.

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Speaker 9: And Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

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Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 3: Terry Haynes joins US now with pengea policy. I can't

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Speaker 3: say enough about his public service out and linked In,

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Speaker 3: not only doing his consulting with penge in all the

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Speaker 3: fancy stuff he does there, but he's been very generous

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Speaker 3: out on LinkedIn to explain this moment, Terry. We're gonna

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Speaker 3: be with you in a bid and I've got David

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Speaker 3: Gerry here with his expertise to ask some.

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Speaker 6: Questions as well.

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Speaker 3: Terry, how will the Senate take this football from the house?

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Speaker 11: Well, I think they take it very much in their

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Speaker 11: own way. Tom, there is no requirement. That mean you've

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Speaker 11: tied me up with Civics one oh one, So here

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Speaker 11: I go. There's absolutely no requirement that the Senate take

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Speaker 11: the House bill as anything definitive at all.

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Speaker 6: Uh.

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Speaker 11: You know it has it has passed the Chamber with

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Speaker 11: all Republican votes and uh, and they have a tiny majority.

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Speaker 11: But the Senate will do this as they wish. And

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Speaker 11: I think what ends up happening here is, UH, they

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Speaker 11: end up softening some of the harder edges. So I

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Speaker 11: think the UH a lot of the debates about the

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Speaker 11: harder edges and things like medicaid and UH and and

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Speaker 11: phase outs for clean energy subsidies, things like that.

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Speaker 7: Softened.

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Speaker 11: Secondly, I do think you get a little bit of

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Speaker 11: a nod to the rising bond vigilanteism by some additional uh,

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Speaker 11: additional cuts to make sure that there's uh, there's a

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Speaker 11: little bit more deficit reduction.

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Speaker 6: Uh.

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Speaker 11: And and part of that, I think for for your

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Speaker 11: audience too, means that you've seen the high water mark

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Speaker 11: of salt, Because what that means is because you know,

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Speaker 11: they needed they needed salt to get votes in the House.

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Speaker 11: They don't need salt to get votes of the Senate, right,

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Speaker 11: so salts back back in the firing line.

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Speaker 3: The President seems to have a great affinity to the

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Speaker 3: gentleman from Louisiana, much more of a distant affinity to

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Speaker 3: the gentleman from the Dakotas. What's the power that Senator

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Speaker 3: Thune has in this debate.

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Speaker 11: Well, he's the chief cat herder. Frankly, this is a

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Speaker 11: unique process, again for your audience, because this reconciliation process

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Speaker 11: is unique because it's pretty much the only the legislation

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Speaker 11: where you need only bare majorities of the House and

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Speaker 11: the Senate in order to pass something, So you don't

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Speaker 11: need the usual sixty sixty vote roundup that provides a

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Speaker 11: modicum of bipartisanship. What you need is a situation. What

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Speaker 11: you need is fifty three Republican senators and that's pretty

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Speaker 11: much it. So he's the chief cat herder here. But

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Speaker 11: you know, the Senate's not like the House. The House

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Speaker 11: is very majoritarian institution. Think of the Senate in this

444
00:21:01,359 --> 00:21:05,439
Speaker 11: case as fifty three CEOs, all of whom's desires and

445
00:21:05,480 --> 00:21:06,520
Speaker 11: whims have to be a So.

446
00:21:06,480 --> 00:21:08,840
Speaker 3: It's like, Paul, it's like a ten of the masters, right,

447
00:21:08,960 --> 00:21:10,280
Speaker 3: that's I guess.

448
00:21:10,840 --> 00:21:12,639
Speaker 6: Across the nation, we say good morning to you.

449
00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:14,920
Speaker 3: We are thrilled at this historic moment where the House

450
00:21:14,960 --> 00:21:18,280
Speaker 3: passage of the bill David Gurr understands, and I don't

451
00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:21,760
Speaker 3: that we have Terry Aynes with us with Pangaea policy

452
00:21:21,800 --> 00:21:25,760
Speaker 3: a special edition certainly a special moment for Bloomberg surveillance.

453
00:21:25,760 --> 00:21:27,760
Speaker 6: Sweeney and I were like, we have no clue what

454
00:21:27,800 --> 00:21:28,879
Speaker 6: we're talking about.

455
00:21:28,800 --> 00:21:31,520
Speaker 7: Bringing an adult David Gurra with Terry Haines.

456
00:21:31,920 --> 00:21:33,760
Speaker 12: Terry, it's great to talk to you as always, and

457
00:21:33,800 --> 00:21:35,639
Speaker 12: I'd love to kind of linger on the deadline for

458
00:21:35,680 --> 00:21:37,000
Speaker 12: all of this if we could. So we have a

459
00:21:37,040 --> 00:21:38,879
Speaker 12: House speaker who managed to get this through by the

460
00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:42,000
Speaker 12: deadline that he imposed. Looming large here, of course, is

461
00:21:42,000 --> 00:21:44,359
Speaker 12: that X state the need by which the lawmakers have

462
00:21:44,400 --> 00:21:46,960
Speaker 12: to raise the dead ceiling before the warning that we've

463
00:21:46,960 --> 00:21:49,520
Speaker 12: gotten from the Treasury secretary. How much of a forcing

464
00:21:49,560 --> 00:21:51,080
Speaker 12: mechanism is that going to be? How do you see

465
00:21:51,080 --> 00:21:52,520
Speaker 12: this playing out over the course of the summer.

466
00:21:53,560 --> 00:21:56,919
Speaker 11: You know, I'm a big fan, even in my personal life,

467
00:21:56,920 --> 00:21:59,640
Speaker 11: of the adage that work expands to fill the time

468
00:21:59,640 --> 00:22:03,720
Speaker 11: a lot. It certainly certainly that's how the Congress operates.

469
00:22:04,200 --> 00:22:08,199
Speaker 11: So what you get is so what you get is

470
00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:10,760
Speaker 11: a situation where you know, whatever the X date is

471
00:22:10,760 --> 00:22:14,280
Speaker 11: is kind of the ultimate backstop. But I'd urge folks

472
00:22:14,320 --> 00:22:16,199
Speaker 11: to look at this in two ways. The X date

473
00:22:16,280 --> 00:22:20,160
Speaker 11: is the ultimate backstop, whatever it is August, September, maybe

474
00:22:20,160 --> 00:22:20,960
Speaker 11: even late July.

475
00:22:22,359 --> 00:22:23,680
Speaker 6: But the other.

476
00:22:23,520 --> 00:22:26,080
Speaker 11: Backstop, I think in the pold more political backstop is

477
00:22:26,160 --> 00:22:28,840
Speaker 11: July fourth. The reason why I say that is that

478
00:22:30,280 --> 00:22:34,520
Speaker 11: there is you've seen out of the House urgency to

479
00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:37,280
Speaker 11: try to get this done, and momentum and building momentum

480
00:22:37,320 --> 00:22:40,159
Speaker 11: to try to get this done. The President will certainly

481
00:22:40,200 --> 00:22:43,639
Speaker 11: want to push on the Senate to keep that momentum

482
00:22:43,680 --> 00:22:47,000
Speaker 11: building and keep a fire lit under them. Number one.

483
00:22:47,280 --> 00:22:49,480
Speaker 11: Number two how the White House sees this, which is

484
00:22:49,480 --> 00:22:51,960
Speaker 11: not irrelevant, is that July fourth is kind of a

485
00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:54,119
Speaker 11: great X date because what you're going to have in

486
00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:57,960
Speaker 11: July fourth is three vectors. Potentially the tax bill passing,

487
00:22:58,080 --> 00:23:01,760
Speaker 11: but also for markets, the announcement of a lot of

488
00:23:01,760 --> 00:23:05,480
Speaker 11: trade deals. Hopefully that happens before then, but you'll see

489
00:23:05,520 --> 00:23:08,400
Speaker 11: a lot of trade deals and a lot of economic

490
00:23:08,520 --> 00:23:11,240
Speaker 11: stimulus coming out of those trade deals. And at the

491
00:23:11,280 --> 00:23:14,960
Speaker 11: same time, the report on reciprocal tariffs will come through.

492
00:23:15,040 --> 00:23:19,160
Speaker 11: So you've got all these things that they hope combine

493
00:23:19,600 --> 00:23:22,240
Speaker 11: to provide more of a direction for the economy of

494
00:23:23,080 --> 00:23:28,480
Speaker 11: an answer for rising bond vigilanteism, and the idea that

495
00:23:29,359 --> 00:23:30,800
Speaker 11: you're going to what you're going to see is an

496
00:23:30,840 --> 00:23:32,159
Speaker 11: economic boost out of all this.

497
00:23:32,520 --> 00:23:32,719
Speaker 6: I whan.

498
00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:34,320
Speaker 12: I guess the President didn't stay up through the night,

499
00:23:34,359 --> 00:23:36,120
Speaker 12: but we know he gets up for surveillance every morning,

500
00:23:36,119 --> 00:23:38,720
Speaker 12: so he's likely listening and watch this vote unfold. But

501
00:23:38,800 --> 00:23:41,199
Speaker 12: I want to ask you, Terry, if I could just

502
00:23:41,240 --> 00:23:43,640
Speaker 12: about sequencing here, to use the Washington word, And there's

503
00:23:43,640 --> 00:23:45,480
Speaker 12: been a lot of criticism here that the White House

504
00:23:46,040 --> 00:23:49,119
Speaker 12: pushed for tariffs and trade modifications before they focused wholly

505
00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:52,200
Speaker 12: on this bill. Now, with the benefit of hindsight, what

506
00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:53,000
Speaker 12: was that a mistake?

507
00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:53,920
Speaker 2: Have we overplayed that?

508
00:23:54,119 --> 00:23:56,320
Speaker 12: Or was this a balancing act that the White House

509
00:23:56,359 --> 00:23:57,760
Speaker 12: was able to successfully execute?

510
00:23:58,840 --> 00:24:01,320
Speaker 11: I think a little bit more of the ladder. You know,

511
00:24:01,359 --> 00:24:04,119
Speaker 11: I wouldn't call it it's an incomplete success at best,

512
00:24:04,680 --> 00:24:08,439
Speaker 11: but certainly they've they have They've avoided the worst of

513
00:24:08,480 --> 00:24:10,840
Speaker 11: a lot of the tariffs and put themselves on track

514
00:24:11,480 --> 00:24:14,240
Speaker 11: to negotiate a lot of these major bipartisan deals. I'm

515
00:24:14,240 --> 00:24:16,199
Speaker 11: not cheerleading when I say so, it's just, you know,

516
00:24:16,240 --> 00:24:18,160
Speaker 11: that's the way the markets reacted ultimately.

517
00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:19,840
Speaker 10: But you know, I.

518
00:24:20,600 --> 00:24:24,840
Speaker 11: Urge people to consider that, for example, with China, what

519
00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:27,520
Speaker 11: that is is a pause. Everyone wants to say, knowingly

520
00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:30,359
Speaker 11: to themselves, to each other and themselves, well, you know

521
00:24:30,680 --> 00:24:33,600
Speaker 11: Trump's backed off. Now, it's all good, But well these

522
00:24:33,640 --> 00:24:35,159
Speaker 11: are all the same people that didn't think Trump was

523
00:24:35,160 --> 00:24:36,880
Speaker 11: going to do what he did in April to begin with.

524
00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:43,960
Speaker 11: So so i'd heard some some caution there. But the

525
00:24:44,040 --> 00:24:46,320
Speaker 11: way they look at it, and I'm not absolving them

526
00:24:46,320 --> 00:24:48,520
Speaker 11: by saying so, I'm just saying the way they look

527
00:24:48,560 --> 00:24:50,680
Speaker 11: at it is, you know, he's got between now and

528
00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:54,200
Speaker 11: next November, when he doesn't know if he has majorities

529
00:24:54,320 --> 00:24:55,960
Speaker 11: or not, to accomplish a lot of things. So it

530
00:24:56,040 --> 00:24:58,439
Speaker 11: was very important to get as going as possible, and

531
00:24:58,480 --> 00:24:59,200
Speaker 11: that's what they've done.

532
00:24:59,359 --> 00:25:00,280
Speaker 6: Across some Erica.

533
00:25:00,320 --> 00:25:03,600
Speaker 3: A conversation this morning with David Gerra of Bloomberg News

534
00:25:03,640 --> 00:25:07,119
Speaker 3: and Terry Haynes of Pangaea Policy will welcome all of you,

535
00:25:07,200 --> 00:25:11,439
Speaker 3: particularly across YouTube. Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcast. It's a new

536
00:25:11,480 --> 00:25:15,000
Speaker 3: digital distribution. Did a thing with Pimco last night, major

537
00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:18,720
Speaker 3: shout out on Serious XCM. Do you listen Paul as

538
00:25:19,040 --> 00:25:19,880
Speaker 3: Serious XM.

539
00:25:19,760 --> 00:25:22,760
Speaker 6: One to twenty one? And well, I don't look like

540
00:25:22,760 --> 00:25:23,359
Speaker 6: Howard Stern.

541
00:25:23,359 --> 00:25:25,639
Speaker 3: I mean, it's not gonna gonna work, but we're thrilled

542
00:25:25,640 --> 00:25:27,800
Speaker 3: to have Terry Haynes with us for this special edition

543
00:25:28,200 --> 00:25:30,720
Speaker 3: of Bloomberg Surveillance Green on the screen.

544
00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:34,040
Speaker 6: The market does a little better right now. The vic's

545
00:25:34,080 --> 00:25:35,080
Speaker 6: twenty point three two.

546
00:25:35,119 --> 00:25:37,000
Speaker 3: But you know, Paul, as you jump in here with

547
00:25:37,040 --> 00:25:40,760
Speaker 3: mister Haynes and mister Gerra, the thirty year bond is

548
00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:41,800
Speaker 3: a higher yield.

549
00:25:41,960 --> 00:25:44,320
Speaker 7: Yes it is over the last twenty minutes, rounded up

550
00:25:44,680 --> 00:25:45,480
Speaker 7: five point.

551
00:25:47,040 --> 00:25:48,639
Speaker 6: House hunting this weekend is going to be.

552
00:25:49,040 --> 00:25:51,600
Speaker 2: A little choungee. I'm not refinancing the mortgage on the

553
00:25:51,640 --> 00:25:56,160
Speaker 2: Jersey Shore compound. Hey, Terry, the Senate gets back from

554
00:25:56,160 --> 00:26:00,560
Speaker 2: a well deserved break on June second, then they're going

555
00:26:00,600 --> 00:26:02,159
Speaker 2: to look at this bill. What's the Senate going to

556
00:26:02,240 --> 00:26:02,800
Speaker 2: do with this bill?

557
00:26:02,880 --> 00:26:03,080
Speaker 4: Terry?

558
00:26:03,119 --> 00:26:05,119
Speaker 2: How does that work? Uh?

559
00:26:05,320 --> 00:26:07,840
Speaker 11: Well, they'll they'll take it up in component parts. There's

560
00:26:07,840 --> 00:26:10,919
Speaker 11: no requirement they take anything the House the House gives them,

561
00:26:10,920 --> 00:26:13,359
Speaker 11: and they probably won't. H I think what they end

562
00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:16,760
Speaker 11: up doing is softening the edges on on a lot

563
00:26:16,800 --> 00:26:19,800
Speaker 11: of the harder things that needed to get done in

564
00:26:19,960 --> 00:26:24,160
Speaker 11: order to attract Republican conservatives. Give them a fig leaf

565
00:26:24,520 --> 00:26:29,200
Speaker 11: give them a fig leaf for for fiscal fiscal continents,

566
00:26:29,240 --> 00:26:30,000
Speaker 11: if you will.

567
00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:32,520
Speaker 6: Terry, Terry, I have to interrupt. The Speaker of the

568
00:26:32,520 --> 00:26:34,159
Speaker 6: House is speaking. We always take.

569
00:26:34,080 --> 00:26:36,680
Speaker 7: Someone from Louisiana over. Terry Hayes.

570
00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:38,520
Speaker 6: Here he is Speaker Johnson.

571
00:26:38,400 --> 00:26:41,080
Speaker 11: Celebrate a new golden age of America.

572
00:26:41,200 --> 00:26:42,159
Speaker 6: Thank you for being here.

573
00:26:42,400 --> 00:26:49,240
Speaker 8: I yield next to our leaders Slee and as a

574
00:26:49,320 --> 00:26:54,040
Speaker 8: speaker said, it truly is morning in America again. You know,

575
00:26:54,080 --> 00:26:57,040
Speaker 8: when you think about all of the work that's gone

576
00:26:57,119 --> 00:27:00,800
Speaker 8: in to putting this bill together, it's one beautiful bill

577
00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:02,080
Speaker 8: for a lot of reasons.

578
00:27:02,720 --> 00:27:03,720
Speaker 6: There are a lot of.

579
00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:07,840
Speaker 8: Really important wins for the American people in this bill.

580
00:27:08,640 --> 00:27:11,680
Speaker 6: And we had eleven committees come together.

581
00:27:12,560 --> 00:27:16,520
Speaker 8: In me in hearings. Some went on over twenty four hours.

582
00:27:17,119 --> 00:27:22,119
Speaker 8: Rules Committee went over twenty hours. You had, you know,

583
00:27:22,119 --> 00:27:24,720
Speaker 8: of course the Budget Committee Chairman Arrington is the lead

584
00:27:24,840 --> 00:27:25,640
Speaker 8: author of the bill.

585
00:27:26,440 --> 00:27:28,240
Speaker 6: All of the people that had been.

586
00:27:28,160 --> 00:27:30,719
Speaker 8: Come together in our conference, and I think a lot

587
00:27:30,800 --> 00:27:34,639
Speaker 8: of you know, we don't all think a light. Democrats

588
00:27:34,680 --> 00:27:37,480
Speaker 8: made it very clear they didn't want to have any

589
00:27:37,560 --> 00:27:40,480
Speaker 8: part in helping get America back on track again.

590
00:27:40,520 --> 00:27:44,159
Speaker 6: But we were never deterred when this bill could have

591
00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:48,240
Speaker 6: failed ten times over. We said we were going to.

592
00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:50,800
Speaker 8: Get this done, and failure is not an option, and

593
00:27:50,880 --> 00:27:54,239
Speaker 8: we meant it. We knew we were fighting for the

594
00:27:54,280 --> 00:27:57,320
Speaker 8: families who had been struggling for way too long under

595
00:27:57,359 --> 00:28:00,879
Speaker 8: the failed policies of Joe Biden and all the Democrats

596
00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:01,520
Speaker 8: he did out.

597
00:28:01,359 --> 00:28:03,639
Speaker 6: Of control of Washington for too long.

598
00:28:04,119 --> 00:28:07,600
Speaker 8: We watched higher interest rates and higher inflation and lower

599
00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:12,320
Speaker 8: wages and a demise of the American dream that we

600
00:28:12,400 --> 00:28:16,040
Speaker 8: knew should not be permanent, but was only going to

601
00:28:16,119 --> 00:28:18,880
Speaker 8: turn around if we passed a bill to get.

602
00:28:18,720 --> 00:28:21,919
Speaker 3: America bas Steve Callice Scaliso, I should say back to

603
00:28:21,960 --> 00:28:25,920
Speaker 3: back to Louisiana here, Paul Sweeney and Tom Keen, Lisa

604
00:28:25,960 --> 00:28:28,679
Speaker 3: Matteo Patient with a data check coming up here, and

605
00:28:29,080 --> 00:28:32,960
Speaker 3: in course Michael Barrow news including the difficult murders in

606
00:28:33,359 --> 00:28:37,320
Speaker 3: Washington overnight. The special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance were focused

607
00:28:37,320 --> 00:28:38,000
Speaker 3: on Washington.

608
00:28:38,040 --> 00:28:41,000
Speaker 13: Good Morning ninety ninety one FM. Nathan with a great

609
00:28:41,080 --> 00:28:43,520
Speaker 13: job earlier in the morning. Fantastic, I mean briefed in

610
00:28:43,640 --> 00:28:46,440
Speaker 13: like way better we are. We have David Gerrow with us,

611
00:28:46,440 --> 00:28:49,440
Speaker 13: who's smarter than we are. Also Terry Haynes, Patient to

612
00:28:49,440 --> 00:28:51,080
Speaker 13: be with us as well.

613
00:28:51,400 --> 00:28:52,880
Speaker 7: Terry color the.

614
00:28:52,920 --> 00:28:55,000
Speaker 6: Moment here where.

615
00:28:54,800 --> 00:29:03,040
Speaker 3: The House has two leaders from Louisiana versus the alleged Senate, Like,

616
00:29:03,200 --> 00:29:06,400
Speaker 3: does the House leadership talk to the Senate? What's the

617
00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:09,480
Speaker 3: body language in the white marble at Capitol Hill.

618
00:29:10,680 --> 00:29:10,880
Speaker 2: Oh?

619
00:29:10,920 --> 00:29:13,000
Speaker 11: Sure they talked to They talked to the Senate quite

620
00:29:13,000 --> 00:29:14,840
Speaker 11: a lot. I think Johnson was over and the senators

621
00:29:14,840 --> 00:29:19,760
Speaker 11: recently is Tuesday briefing senators on on progress and been

622
00:29:20,240 --> 00:29:22,800
Speaker 11: begging them to take the House package, which which they

623
00:29:22,840 --> 00:29:25,080
Speaker 11: won't do. So but he's got to do that.

624
00:29:26,560 --> 00:29:28,760
Speaker 7: Yeah, they talk, They talk a lot.

625
00:29:28,880 --> 00:29:31,520
Speaker 11: But you know, the the thing with politics that I

626
00:29:31,520 --> 00:29:36,080
Speaker 11: think a lot of folks don't, No, it's it's it's just,

627
00:29:36,160 --> 00:29:38,880
Speaker 11: you know, it's combat. Even when you have even when

628
00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:43,600
Speaker 11: you're jostling around with friendlies, you know, it's uh it's uh,

629
00:29:43,680 --> 00:29:48,280
Speaker 11: it's elbows up hockey or or elbows basketball, pick your

630
00:29:48,280 --> 00:29:51,320
Speaker 11: sporting metaphor. But uh, you know, you you've got to

631
00:29:51,320 --> 00:29:55,240
Speaker 11: fight for every inch and the houses. The House's job

632
00:29:55,320 --> 00:29:57,440
Speaker 11: in most legislation is to overreach.

633
00:29:58,200 --> 00:29:58,520
Speaker 6: Uh.

634
00:29:58,600 --> 00:30:01,320
Speaker 11: You know, you've got kind of a purest imperative where

635
00:30:01,360 --> 00:30:04,840
Speaker 11: you get you consciously reach you too much knowing you're

636
00:30:04,840 --> 00:30:07,680
Speaker 11: going to get rolled back into the middle, and that's

637
00:30:07,720 --> 00:30:09,920
Speaker 11: the Senate's job is to roll back into the middle.

638
00:30:10,040 --> 00:30:14,400
Speaker 11: So then even in a reconciliation process where only the

639
00:30:14,440 --> 00:30:17,440
Speaker 11: Republicans matter, that's exactly what they're to do here, because

640
00:30:17,440 --> 00:30:19,720
Speaker 11: they've got a different calculus among their fifty three.

641
00:30:19,880 --> 00:30:22,320
Speaker 3: David Gurrow, quickly here before you go to Terry Haynes,

642
00:30:22,360 --> 00:30:25,920
Speaker 3: give us a vignette, David Gura, of your last week

643
00:30:26,240 --> 00:30:30,480
Speaker 3: of covering Washington, one little interview or one little moment

644
00:30:30,520 --> 00:30:32,160
Speaker 3: where you were like, are you kidding me?

645
00:30:32,840 --> 00:30:34,320
Speaker 12: You know, I went down to Washington and sat down

646
00:30:34,320 --> 00:30:36,160
Speaker 12: with the chair of the House Budget Committe. This was

647
00:30:36,200 --> 00:30:38,040
Speaker 12: before the votes that took place over the weekend, and

648
00:30:38,080 --> 00:30:40,720
Speaker 12: it was clear just in that conversation he's somebody who

649
00:30:40,760 --> 00:30:42,760
Speaker 12: exudes a lot of confidences, Jody Rington, who has a

650
00:30:42,760 --> 00:30:44,320
Speaker 12: lot of confidence about what he's able to do. But

651
00:30:44,880 --> 00:30:47,440
Speaker 12: you saw in that committee in stark relief, just kind

652
00:30:47,440 --> 00:30:50,800
Speaker 12: of the spectrum of Republicans in this day and age.

653
00:30:50,800 --> 00:30:52,280
Speaker 12: And so he had to deal with Chip roy E

654
00:30:52,280 --> 00:30:54,600
Speaker 12: of every conservative member of the House, trying to get

655
00:30:54,600 --> 00:30:55,920
Speaker 12: all these folks in line. And I know that we

656
00:30:55,960 --> 00:30:57,800
Speaker 12: had Terry Haynes here saying that John Thune's job is

657
00:30:57,840 --> 00:30:59,360
Speaker 12: to be the chief cat heurder. There are a lot

658
00:30:59,400 --> 00:31:01,480
Speaker 12: of cat heurders on Capitol Hill. In the chair of

659
00:31:01,520 --> 00:31:03,360
Speaker 12: the House Budget Committee has been one of them. But

660
00:31:03,400 --> 00:31:04,640
Speaker 12: he's gotten this through.

661
00:31:05,800 --> 00:31:06,040
Speaker 5: Terry.

662
00:31:06,120 --> 00:31:09,320
Speaker 12: Let me ask you just about the Medicaid issue in specific,

663
00:31:09,360 --> 00:31:10,760
Speaker 12: because I think this is the one that's likely to

664
00:31:10,760 --> 00:31:12,560
Speaker 12: be a hot button issue in the Senate as well

665
00:31:12,560 --> 00:31:13,680
Speaker 12: as it wasn't in the House.

666
00:31:14,720 --> 00:31:15,360
Speaker 7: Is there room?

667
00:31:15,480 --> 00:31:18,760
Speaker 12: Is there is there a sense that senator senators are

668
00:31:18,760 --> 00:31:20,360
Speaker 12: going to find it palable to put in these work

669
00:31:20,400 --> 00:31:22,560
Speaker 12: requirements to make the kind of changes that we saw

670
00:31:23,040 --> 00:31:24,640
Speaker 12: Republicans in the House agree to make.

671
00:31:26,200 --> 00:31:28,720
Speaker 11: I think they do. I think their requirements get softened

672
00:31:28,720 --> 00:31:32,800
Speaker 11: to some extent, though, Uh, you know, the the mistake

673
00:31:32,880 --> 00:31:35,000
Speaker 11: again in my Civics one on one role this morning,

674
00:31:35,480 --> 00:31:39,040
Speaker 11: the uh, I think sometimes people make the mistake of

675
00:31:39,080 --> 00:31:41,440
Speaker 11: looking at these things in silos. In other words, you know,

676
00:31:41,480 --> 00:31:43,960
Speaker 11: all the matters is the Medicaid things. Let's talk about that.

677
00:31:44,520 --> 00:31:44,640
Speaker 4: Uh.

678
00:31:45,000 --> 00:31:47,160
Speaker 11: They had they had a bogging to meet in the House,

679
00:31:48,160 --> 00:31:52,560
Speaker 11: a specific number of efficiencies that the that the committee

680
00:31:52,600 --> 00:31:56,760
Speaker 11: that oversees Medicaid needed to make. They met that in

681
00:31:56,840 --> 00:31:59,000
Speaker 11: part through the work requirements and everything else. But I

682
00:31:59,000 --> 00:32:01,560
Speaker 11: think the Senate approach is that with a lot of skepticism,

683
00:32:02,080 --> 00:32:04,840
Speaker 11: and I do think a lot of those things get softened.

684
00:32:05,240 --> 00:32:07,440
Speaker 11: You know, you've got to You've already had noises from

685
00:32:07,480 --> 00:32:11,520
Speaker 11: a lot of relatively moderate Republican senators to that effect

686
00:32:12,040 --> 00:32:16,200
Speaker 11: that they're concerned about concerned about how those how those

687
00:32:16,720 --> 00:32:20,400
Speaker 11: work requirements and other things might roll out. That they

688
00:32:20,400 --> 00:32:22,959
Speaker 11: will they'll want to make sure the focus truly is

689
00:32:23,080 --> 00:32:26,360
Speaker 11: on what the President calls waste, fraud, and abuse. They'll

690
00:32:26,400 --> 00:32:28,960
Speaker 11: generally be okay with that, but if it strays out

691
00:32:29,000 --> 00:32:33,320
Speaker 11: into into substance, the Senate's going to be four square

692
00:32:33,360 --> 00:32:35,880
Speaker 11: against that, not just because they want to keep the

693
00:32:35,920 --> 00:32:40,360
Speaker 11: programs focus intact, but also because they understand that the

694
00:32:40,480 --> 00:32:43,880
Speaker 11: Republicans generally in the midterms pay a large political price

695
00:32:43,920 --> 00:32:46,600
Speaker 11: if that's not so. Uh, you know, what they need

696
00:32:46,640 --> 00:32:48,640
Speaker 11: to be able to do is to go out when

697
00:32:48,640 --> 00:32:51,800
Speaker 11: this bill is done and say, look, we didn't touch

698
00:32:51,880 --> 00:32:55,400
Speaker 11: medicaid substance. All we're doing is creating efficiencies and how

699
00:32:55,440 --> 00:32:59,320
Speaker 11: the program is administered, and they certainly need for that.

700
00:32:59,480 --> 00:33:02,959
Speaker 11: They will say, so, you know, and we've fixed that

701
00:33:03,720 --> 00:33:05,400
Speaker 11: so you know, I think that's going to be the

702
00:33:05,400 --> 00:33:08,120
Speaker 11: Senate's function, and if to the extent that they lose

703
00:33:08,160 --> 00:33:11,400
Speaker 11: some savings there, they look for savings elsewhere, which is

704
00:33:11,440 --> 00:33:14,120
Speaker 11: one reason, as I say, I think things like Salter

705
00:33:14,120 --> 00:33:14,720
Speaker 11: at risk.

706
00:33:15,600 --> 00:33:18,480
Speaker 2: Terry, how big of a win is this for President Trump?

707
00:33:20,040 --> 00:33:22,960
Speaker 11: It's the big win and that's it, you know, and

708
00:33:23,440 --> 00:33:28,760
Speaker 11: being able to heard these particularly frascius Cats, get things

709
00:33:28,800 --> 00:33:31,640
Speaker 11: done and get them done on time. With the creation

710
00:33:31,760 --> 00:33:35,440
Speaker 11: of some momentum around this in the first half of

711
00:33:35,480 --> 00:33:39,680
Speaker 11: the year, when by comparison, the twenty seventeen tax bill

712
00:33:39,720 --> 00:33:43,000
Speaker 11: took literally all year, it didn't didn't go to final

713
00:33:43,080 --> 00:33:47,400
Speaker 11: until December, that's a big accomplishment. That shows a lot

714
00:33:47,400 --> 00:33:50,680
Speaker 11: of urgency on the part of Republicans, So that's positive

715
00:33:50,720 --> 00:33:51,080
Speaker 11: for them.

716
00:33:51,880 --> 00:33:52,040
Speaker 6: You know.

717
00:33:52,720 --> 00:33:56,360
Speaker 11: Trick is to keep the fire lit under the Senate

718
00:33:57,120 --> 00:34:00,239
Speaker 11: and make sure that he doesn't need to use is

719
00:34:00,480 --> 00:34:04,360
Speaker 11: the ultimate backstop of the UH of the debt ceiling

720
00:34:04,480 --> 00:34:08,160
Speaker 11: x states as something UH. But you know, I can

721
00:34:08,239 --> 00:34:12,040
Speaker 11: actually roll that forward and make that happen even faster,

722
00:34:13,120 --> 00:34:16,480
Speaker 11: which probably helps him economically as well worldwide.

723
00:34:16,640 --> 00:34:19,440
Speaker 3: Terry Hayes with this Pangaea policy and David Gura of

724
00:34:19,480 --> 00:34:22,080
Speaker 3: the big take in Bloomberg News.

725
00:34:21,760 --> 00:34:24,680
Speaker 7: Ger and I and Lisa were in awe of discipline.

726
00:34:24,760 --> 00:34:29,239
Speaker 7: Paul Sweeney, he's yet to ask about salt for those.

727
00:34:29,600 --> 00:34:31,839
Speaker 3: For those, it's you know, it's just a New York, Paul,

728
00:34:31,920 --> 00:34:34,560
Speaker 3: it's a California in four or five other states.

729
00:34:34,680 --> 00:34:36,800
Speaker 2: Is Matt Miller has been pounding on this with the

730
00:34:36,840 --> 00:34:37,880
Speaker 2: window here of our studio.

731
00:34:38,160 --> 00:34:39,040
Speaker 7: You can't shut him up.

732
00:34:40,520 --> 00:34:45,040
Speaker 2: So, Terry, I mean, salt, salt, it's it's a big issue.

733
00:34:45,040 --> 00:34:48,719
Speaker 2: It's where are we on this? So, Terry, how does

734
00:34:48,760 --> 00:34:50,719
Speaker 2: this salt situation stack up?

735
00:34:51,600 --> 00:34:51,799
Speaker 6: Well?

736
00:34:51,840 --> 00:34:55,400
Speaker 11: I think it's uh, yeah, I think And I told

737
00:34:55,440 --> 00:34:57,560
Speaker 11: markets yesterday, I thought that what they had to look

738
00:34:57,640 --> 00:35:00,800
Speaker 11: out for here is the you know, not not taking

739
00:35:00,840 --> 00:35:05,200
Speaker 11: their their big salts and uh and going away. But

740
00:35:05,400 --> 00:35:07,480
Speaker 11: because I think the world in the Senate's going to

741
00:35:07,560 --> 00:35:12,759
Speaker 11: be slid light salt or no salt pretent really really yeah,

742
00:35:12,800 --> 00:35:14,600
Speaker 11: I think they probably make a nod to it in

743
00:35:14,600 --> 00:35:17,920
Speaker 11: the end, but much less. Uh. And the reason simple,

744
00:35:17,960 --> 00:35:20,319
Speaker 11: The only reason why salt is even in this bill

745
00:35:20,440 --> 00:35:22,479
Speaker 11: is because of politics. They need to get a few

746
00:35:23,200 --> 00:35:27,080
Speaker 11: New York, New Jersey, California members on board and uh,

747
00:35:27,880 --> 00:35:30,960
Speaker 11: but that really doesn't exist in the Senate today. I'm

748
00:35:31,000 --> 00:35:34,200
Speaker 11: not aware of a single senator who you know, who

749
00:35:34,640 --> 00:35:36,840
Speaker 11: it's a make or break vote for. And of course

750
00:35:36,920 --> 00:35:40,400
Speaker 11: all the all the blue state senators are all Democrats,

751
00:35:40,440 --> 00:35:45,680
Speaker 11: so uh, there's no need to to coddle there. So uh,

752
00:35:46,000 --> 00:35:48,120
Speaker 11: you know you did? I think you have a haircut

753
00:35:48,160 --> 00:35:50,560
Speaker 11: here from from from what's the House bill?

754
00:35:50,680 --> 00:35:52,839
Speaker 3: If folks, it's a clinic with Terry Haynes. I can't

755
00:35:52,880 --> 00:35:56,640
Speaker 3: say enough his efforts out on LinkedIn. Just literally it's

756
00:35:56,680 --> 00:35:59,480
Speaker 3: worth it to sign up for LinkedIn, just to get

757
00:35:59,520 --> 00:36:02,920
Speaker 3: penji up policy and the daily brief from Terry Hayes

758
00:36:02,960 --> 00:36:05,360
Speaker 3: that you see out there. Terry, Thank you, generous of

759
00:36:05,440 --> 00:36:07,040
Speaker 3: you at this historic moment to be with.

760
00:36:11,960 --> 00:36:15,880
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

761
00:36:15,920 --> 00:36:19,239
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay.

762
00:36:18,440 --> 00:36:20,879
Speaker 9: And Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.

763
00:36:20,960 --> 00:36:23,920
Speaker 1: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube

764
00:36:24,000 --> 00:36:26,080
Speaker 1: and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.

765
00:36:26,480 --> 00:36:29,480
Speaker 2: Mark Douglas is the CEO of a company called Mountain

766
00:36:29,600 --> 00:36:32,719
Speaker 2: and the company just went public today. They're going to

767
00:36:32,760 --> 00:36:37,160
Speaker 2: start training today. MNTN is a ticker symbol. They raised

768
00:36:37,200 --> 00:36:39,200
Speaker 2: one hundred and eighty seven million dollars. They sold eleven

769
00:36:39,200 --> 00:36:42,480
Speaker 2: point seven million shares at sixteen bucks, So a solid

770
00:36:43,200 --> 00:36:46,239
Speaker 2: start there for Mountain Marks on the I believe in

771
00:36:46,320 --> 00:36:48,640
Speaker 2: your Socker chains floor right now, Mark Douglas, CEO Mountain

772
00:36:48,680 --> 00:36:51,879
Speaker 2: joins us. Mark, talk to us about the IPO process here.

773
00:36:52,200 --> 00:36:55,640
Speaker 2: What was a message you guys were delivering to prospective

774
00:36:55,640 --> 00:36:57,480
Speaker 2: shareholders here during your IPO.

775
00:36:58,200 --> 00:37:00,799
Speaker 14: Well, I think the key message was that we had

776
00:37:00,840 --> 00:37:04,920
Speaker 14: created a new segment of the television advertising market where

777
00:37:04,960 --> 00:37:08,160
Speaker 14: we're bringing small and mid sized companies into the market

778
00:37:08,200 --> 00:37:11,279
Speaker 14: for the first time on our platform where they can

779
00:37:11,360 --> 00:37:14,640
Speaker 14: advertise on TV the same way they could previously do.

780
00:37:14,719 --> 00:37:15,880
Speaker 2: On search and social.

781
00:37:16,280 --> 00:37:18,759
Speaker 14: And so our customers have responded to that and we

782
00:37:19,200 --> 00:37:21,920
Speaker 14: very please, like all the investors we met with on

783
00:37:21,960 --> 00:37:24,239
Speaker 14: the road show responded just as well.

784
00:37:24,320 --> 00:37:26,200
Speaker 3: When you go into a meeting, do you take Ryan

785
00:37:26,239 --> 00:37:28,640
Speaker 3: Reynolds into the meeting.

786
00:37:28,400 --> 00:37:31,200
Speaker 14: Well, he showed up on the teaching you know, the

787
00:37:31,239 --> 00:37:34,000
Speaker 14: first day of a road show you meet with all

788
00:37:34,000 --> 00:37:36,560
Speaker 14: the banks and all the people, and he was there.

789
00:37:36,719 --> 00:37:38,560
Speaker 14: Was it was pretty fun meeting, so we had a

790
00:37:38,560 --> 00:37:38,960
Speaker 14: good time.

791
00:37:39,200 --> 00:37:41,600
Speaker 6: So what's the distinction here? Help Paul and me. We're

792
00:37:41,600 --> 00:37:43,399
Speaker 6: on on YouTube it's building every day.

793
00:37:43,800 --> 00:37:46,720
Speaker 3: Mark, We're just overwhelmed by the you know, as Colin

794
00:37:47,040 --> 00:37:49,960
Speaker 3: of the Twins says, a discoverability factor.

795
00:37:50,520 --> 00:37:54,879
Speaker 7: How is ed revenue going to fold into YouTube.

796
00:37:54,480 --> 00:37:58,960
Speaker 3: Creators, whether they're hipsters like Lisa Mateo's kids or their

797
00:37:59,000 --> 00:37:59,840
Speaker 3: fossils like me.

798
00:38:01,680 --> 00:38:05,520
Speaker 14: Yeah, so YouTube, something like YouTube, it's not competing with

799
00:38:05,640 --> 00:38:08,560
Speaker 14: something like stream with streaming television, which is the market

800
00:38:08,640 --> 00:38:11,759
Speaker 14: that we're in. It's actually people are just expanding their

801
00:38:12,000 --> 00:38:15,560
Speaker 14: entertainment consumption. So more people watch TV a day than

802
00:38:15,719 --> 00:38:19,400
Speaker 14: use social media. It's the highest engagement channel of any

803
00:38:19,640 --> 00:38:24,240
Speaker 14: entertainment medium. So you see streaming growing obviously, YouTube, social

804
00:38:24,320 --> 00:38:27,400
Speaker 14: all continue to grow as people just consume more content

805
00:38:27,800 --> 00:38:30,600
Speaker 14: and as a result, you know, companies or small mid

806
00:38:30,600 --> 00:38:33,560
Speaker 14: sized businesses can now connect with those people and do

807
00:38:33,680 --> 00:38:37,040
Speaker 14: that with Mountain, do that obviously with Google and so forth.

808
00:38:37,080 --> 00:38:39,080
Speaker 14: So we're you know, it's it's great for everyone.

809
00:38:39,480 --> 00:38:39,680
Speaker 6: Mark.

810
00:38:39,719 --> 00:38:42,719
Speaker 2: The month of May is a very important part of

811
00:38:42,760 --> 00:38:46,279
Speaker 2: the year for global television business. Here we have the

812
00:38:46,400 --> 00:38:49,920
Speaker 2: upfronts where the broadcasting cable networks and pretty much everybody

813
00:38:49,920 --> 00:38:52,640
Speaker 2: else out there is trying to sell adspace shows. Everybody

814
00:38:52,719 --> 00:38:55,200
Speaker 2: what they're going to be broadcasting in the upcoming year

815
00:38:55,239 --> 00:38:58,280
Speaker 2: and they ask advertisers to step up and commit dollars

816
00:38:58,800 --> 00:39:02,560
Speaker 2: for the upcoming levision decision. How are you episode fronts

817
00:39:02,600 --> 00:39:05,359
Speaker 2: this year and how would you characterize the upfronts this year?

818
00:39:05,360 --> 00:39:08,640
Speaker 2: And what are advertisers thinking about with maybe some uncertain

819
00:39:08,680 --> 00:39:09,480
Speaker 2: economic times.

820
00:39:10,160 --> 00:39:13,000
Speaker 14: Yeah, so I think the advertisers are there for the upfronts.

821
00:39:13,080 --> 00:39:16,799
Speaker 14: And the thing that I think the whole industry is

822
00:39:16,960 --> 00:39:19,920
Speaker 14: really excited about is live sports on streaming. So you

823
00:39:19,960 --> 00:39:24,200
Speaker 14: see ESPN and other networks really focused on live sports

824
00:39:24,320 --> 00:39:26,960
Speaker 14: is kind of number one conversation I have with the

825
00:39:27,040 --> 00:39:29,360
Speaker 14: leaders at these networks. And so I think the upfronts

826
00:39:29,360 --> 00:39:32,480
Speaker 14: will be fine. I think our customers will do great.

827
00:39:32,480 --> 00:39:34,960
Speaker 14: They'll they'll won't participate in the upfronts, but they will

828
00:39:35,239 --> 00:39:37,920
Speaker 14: participate in the availability of live sports is kind of

829
00:39:37,920 --> 00:39:39,200
Speaker 14: the year of live sports.

830
00:39:39,239 --> 00:39:40,359
Speaker 2: So that's what you're going to see.

831
00:39:40,440 --> 00:39:42,359
Speaker 3: Mark Douglas, thank you for the time. Is the chief

832
00:39:42,400 --> 00:39:47,080
Speaker 3: executive officer Mountain. The symbol mm TN their initial public

833
00:39:47,200 --> 00:39:48,640
Speaker 3: offering today.

834
00:39:48,960 --> 00:39:52,840
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

835
00:39:52,880 --> 00:39:56,160
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto

836
00:39:56,320 --> 00:39:59,279
Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live

837
00:39:59,360 --> 00:40:02,960
Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just

838
00:40:03,000 --> 00:40:05,520
Speaker 1: say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

839
00:40:06,200 --> 00:40:08,279
Speaker 6: Lisa Matteo. Here she is with newspapers.

840
00:40:08,360 --> 00:40:11,120
Speaker 15: Okay, this is going to be all about the Wellness Hour.

841
00:40:11,200 --> 00:40:14,840
Speaker 7: Okay, help.

842
00:40:16,160 --> 00:40:18,520
Speaker 15: Captain, I'm all about the wellness And this is the

843
00:40:18,560 --> 00:40:21,040
Speaker 15: story from the New York Times about those wearable devices.

844
00:40:21,040 --> 00:40:23,560
Speaker 15: You heard it, like the r ring, the Apple watches,

845
00:40:23,960 --> 00:40:27,160
Speaker 15: the fit bits. Okay, so these are devices that track

846
00:40:27,200 --> 00:40:29,560
Speaker 15: your biometric data, right, you have body temperature, heart rate,

847
00:40:29,600 --> 00:40:32,360
Speaker 15: blood pressure, how much rem sleep you get. But a

848
00:40:32,400 --> 00:40:34,719
Speaker 15: lot of users say they enjoy it because it keeps

849
00:40:34,760 --> 00:40:36,920
Speaker 15: them on top of, you know, all their data. But

850
00:40:37,080 --> 00:40:40,040
Speaker 15: others are saying it's starting to make them anxious. They're

851
00:40:40,040 --> 00:40:42,520
Speaker 15: getting a little bit compulsive, like they're checking their stats

852
00:40:42,560 --> 00:40:44,719
Speaker 15: all the time. They're freaking out, they're trying to make

853
00:40:44,719 --> 00:40:46,879
Speaker 15: an appointment for the doctor. The doctor can't see them,

854
00:40:46,880 --> 00:40:50,000
Speaker 15: so then their stats good even worse. So it's becoming

855
00:40:50,000 --> 00:40:52,600
Speaker 15: this whole phenomenon like, yes, you know, it's great, but

856
00:40:53,280 --> 00:40:55,600
Speaker 15: does it also make you a little bit too self conscious?

857
00:40:55,680 --> 00:40:57,680
Speaker 6: Oh of course, did you check?

858
00:40:58,360 --> 00:41:00,000
Speaker 7: I just got the watch on her risk.

859
00:41:00,120 --> 00:41:01,960
Speaker 15: Have to watch, but I just use it to track

860
00:41:02,160 --> 00:41:04,279
Speaker 15: like my workouts watch.

861
00:41:05,480 --> 00:41:07,560
Speaker 3: We have two eye watches at home that sit on

862
00:41:07,600 --> 00:41:10,400
Speaker 3: the table. We couldn't figure out how to do it.

863
00:41:10,400 --> 00:41:11,320
Speaker 3: It's too complex.

864
00:41:11,360 --> 00:41:13,279
Speaker 15: I mean it's pretty good, like the heart, like if

865
00:41:13,320 --> 00:41:15,359
Speaker 15: I ever feel my heart kind of pacing, I'll check it.

866
00:41:15,440 --> 00:41:17,120
Speaker 15: I can do it, you know here on my watch

867
00:41:17,120 --> 00:41:17,720
Speaker 15: and just say.

868
00:41:17,719 --> 00:41:18,960
Speaker 2: What do you do? And then I.

869
00:41:20,760 --> 00:41:25,360
Speaker 3: Exactly, I'm glad that my heart was pacing what she

870
00:41:25,480 --> 00:41:28,680
Speaker 3: was wearing me and meal Matt Gala and you know,

871
00:41:28,760 --> 00:41:31,040
Speaker 3: thank god I had my apple I watched to say.

872
00:41:31,080 --> 00:41:34,239
Speaker 2: Exactly where you god steps on Tuesday? How about that?

873
00:41:34,360 --> 00:41:34,600
Speaker 6: See?

874
00:41:34,719 --> 00:41:35,719
Speaker 7: And how do you know that?

875
00:41:35,800 --> 00:41:38,560
Speaker 6: Do you need to do ten thousands stations?

876
00:41:39,680 --> 00:41:42,360
Speaker 15: That is a recommended That is a recommended ten thousands?

877
00:41:42,400 --> 00:41:44,160
Speaker 6: Do you do ten thousand steps to day?

878
00:41:44,640 --> 00:41:44,960
Speaker 8: I do?

879
00:41:45,040 --> 00:41:47,359
Speaker 15: I walked to and from the train and subway back home.

880
00:41:47,520 --> 00:41:50,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, I do. And the workout count too.

881
00:41:51,920 --> 00:41:53,080
Speaker 15: Okay, this one's tough.

882
00:41:53,160 --> 00:41:53,440
Speaker 2: Okay.

883
00:41:53,440 --> 00:41:55,760
Speaker 15: So we were talking about the next Pacers game, right, Okay,

884
00:41:56,000 --> 00:41:58,760
Speaker 15: a lot of people paid some big bucks to watch.

885
00:41:58,520 --> 00:41:59,760
Speaker 2: And excluse at the garden.

886
00:42:00,480 --> 00:42:02,840
Speaker 15: It's at a record for seat prices. So this is

887
00:42:02,840 --> 00:42:05,840
Speaker 15: according to boardroom. They pointed to data from tickpic and

888
00:42:05,880 --> 00:42:08,200
Speaker 15: it shows the average price for tickets to Game one

889
00:42:08,520 --> 00:42:12,120
Speaker 15: at the Garden record setting one and ninety three dollars,

890
00:42:12,160 --> 00:42:16,480
Speaker 15: making it the most expensive NBA Conference Final game ever. Now,

891
00:42:16,480 --> 00:42:19,080
Speaker 15: if you look at it just getting in the door, Okay,

892
00:42:19,120 --> 00:42:21,960
Speaker 15: the current get in price for Game one is five hundred.

893
00:42:22,160 --> 00:42:24,480
Speaker 15: Was five hundred and eighty dollars. That's nearly double the

894
00:42:24,480 --> 00:42:28,719
Speaker 15: price cab tag for Game three over in Indianapolis. So

895
00:42:29,160 --> 00:42:31,400
Speaker 15: it's just the anticipation, right, We've been talking about this.

896
00:42:31,480 --> 00:42:33,839
Speaker 15: People have been waiting for this time, and they're willing

897
00:42:33,880 --> 00:42:34,920
Speaker 15: to pay whether they win or not.

898
00:42:35,040 --> 00:42:37,240
Speaker 3: I've been like two games in my life. I'm ignorant,

899
00:42:37,480 --> 00:42:41,280
Speaker 3: Paul is the magic of the NBA. There's no boards

900
00:42:41,280 --> 00:42:43,920
Speaker 3: and glass between the fans and.

901
00:42:43,920 --> 00:42:46,680
Speaker 10: The ice, and there's no mask the.

902
00:42:46,680 --> 00:42:49,560
Speaker 2: Player times, there's no mass, there's noll and so you

903
00:42:49,640 --> 00:42:51,960
Speaker 2: really get to know who these people are and.

904
00:42:51,880 --> 00:42:53,600
Speaker 6: It's almost like a gladiator thing.

905
00:42:53,760 --> 00:42:57,440
Speaker 2: In The NBA does a great great job of developing

906
00:42:57,480 --> 00:43:00,640
Speaker 2: and celebrating and highlighting and showcasing their store, whether it's

907
00:43:00,680 --> 00:43:03,160
Speaker 2: you know, Michael Jordan or Lebron James or Steph Curry

908
00:43:03,200 --> 00:43:06,120
Speaker 2: or whomever. They do a great job doing that, and

909
00:43:06,160 --> 00:43:09,080
Speaker 2: it's it's you know, after the NFL, it's the NBA game.

910
00:43:09,120 --> 00:43:11,239
Speaker 15: Truth was, I was looking at StubHub for you for

911
00:43:11,760 --> 00:43:15,560
Speaker 15: the next game courtside eleven thousand dollars and then at

912
00:43:15,600 --> 00:43:17,680
Speaker 15: the top, yeah, at per ticket at the top, way

913
00:43:17,719 --> 00:43:19,560
Speaker 15: at the top, just over seven hundred bucks.

914
00:43:19,560 --> 00:43:20,520
Speaker 5: Tickets still available.

915
00:43:20,560 --> 00:43:22,240
Speaker 7: Okay, okay, one.

916
00:43:22,120 --> 00:43:24,200
Speaker 15: More story slipping quick, Okay, I'll slip it in here.

917
00:43:24,239 --> 00:43:24,520
Speaker 2: Okay.

918
00:43:24,560 --> 00:43:27,680
Speaker 15: So Wall Street Journal says you can still negotiate a

919
00:43:27,680 --> 00:43:30,720
Speaker 15: best and final offer even though it's a competitive labor market.

920
00:43:31,120 --> 00:43:33,200
Speaker 15: Even if the salary is set. They say there's other

921
00:43:33,239 --> 00:43:35,439
Speaker 15: places for wiggle room. So they say, ask for things

922
00:43:35,520 --> 00:43:39,239
Speaker 15: like signing bonus, more flexible schedule, bigger title, maybe an

923
00:43:39,280 --> 00:43:43,600
Speaker 15: extra week of vacation. Some people are doing like as is,

924
00:43:43,640 --> 00:43:47,200
Speaker 15: but with an agreement to revisit this later. But they

925
00:43:47,200 --> 00:43:49,319
Speaker 15: say it's not something for everyone. You know, you have

926
00:43:49,400 --> 00:43:51,759
Speaker 15: to really be competitive and be in there.

927
00:43:51,840 --> 00:43:52,080
Speaker 8: Yes.

928
00:43:52,480 --> 00:43:57,319
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

929
00:43:57,440 --> 00:44:01,719
Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,

930
00:44:01,840 --> 00:44:05,319
Speaker 1: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com. The

931
00:44:05,400 --> 00:44:09,440
Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business App. You

932
00:44:09,480 --> 00:44:12,840
Speaker 1: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and

933
00:44:13,040 --> 00:44:14,760
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