WEBVTT - How Climate Change Is Reshaping Agriculture

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<v Speaker 1>You're listening to Asia Centric from Bloomberg Intelligence, the podcast

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<v Speaker 1>that explores the big ideas and trends moving money across

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<v Speaker 1>the region. I'm John Lee in Hong Kong.

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<v Speaker 2>And I'm Kadi Dmitriyeva, also in Hong Kong. John, I

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<v Speaker 2>was reading a UN report earlier this year about this

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<v Speaker 2>big global change that's happening in agriculture. India is set

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<v Speaker 2>to overtake China as the world's number one driver of

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<v Speaker 2>global food demand and that's going to be over the

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<v Speaker 2>next decade.

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<v Speaker 1>Interesting, and that's quite a big change from what we

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<v Speaker 1>saw in the past few decades where all the growth

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<v Speaker 1>in demand came from China, everything from meat to rice.

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<v Speaker 1>We shift a lot of supply chains, impact prices and

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<v Speaker 1>in general, it's a trend that most investors should be

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<v Speaker 1>aware of.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah. Also the climate factor. We're seeing bigger and more

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<v Speaker 2>frequent climate change events, particularly in India and China. Well,

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<v Speaker 2>here to discuss all things agriculture across the region is

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<v Speaker 2>Darren Fredericks, director of Setonia Consulting. Welcome, Darren, Hi, thanks

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<v Speaker 2>for having me well in this report.

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<v Speaker 3>Darren.

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<v Speaker 2>The un FAO, that's the Food and Agriculture Organization They

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<v Speaker 2>said that China's agriculture and fisheries consumption growth will drop

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<v Speaker 2>to about eleven percent, So it's a pretty big decline

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<v Speaker 2>from the sort of twenty eight percent we've had over

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<v Speaker 2>the past decade, So quite a big shift, a big slowdown,

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<v Speaker 2>and the un cited China shrinking population, flat income growth.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm just wondering, from what you're looking at, are you

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<v Speaker 2>seeing that slow down in China's agricultural demands yet?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, Yeah, we're definitely seeing a slowdown. Part of that

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<v Speaker 3>is due to the school or economic growth that we're

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<v Speaker 3>seeing following COVID. Part of that's also the changing demographics.

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<v Speaker 3>You have an aging population, they're trying to eat healthier.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, back in twenty ten you saw very high

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<v Speaker 3>growth in port consumption things like that. But now China's

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<v Speaker 3>the economy slowing, the older demographics are trying to eat healthier,

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<v Speaker 3>the younger demographics also trying to eat healthier, And we've

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<v Speaker 3>sort of had all the major gains previously and now

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<v Speaker 3>things are settling into a more slower pace.

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<v Speaker 2>What kind of agricultural goods are we talking about, Like,

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<v Speaker 2>if someone wants to eat healthy in China, what kind

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<v Speaker 2>of items are they reaching for or what are they

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<v Speaker 2>not reaching for anymore.

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<v Speaker 3>I think the biggest thing that we've seen impacted is pork.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, pork remains the dominant protein source, the biggest meat,

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<v Speaker 3>but over the past decade, pork consumption is basically flat

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<v Speaker 3>in comparison consumption of paltry so like chicken meat that's

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<v Speaker 3>actually increased quite a bit over the past decade. So

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<v Speaker 3>as people are eating healthier, they're going for that. We've

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<v Speaker 3>seen a big increase in beef consumption eggs as well,

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<v Speaker 3>So pork is still the dominant meat, but people are

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<v Speaker 3>switching to alternatives, and they're also going for what they

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<v Speaker 3>see as healthier options.

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<v Speaker 1>Darren China consumes roughly, you know, half the world's poor consumption,

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<v Speaker 1>so it's still very important. How has a slow down

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<v Speaker 1>impacted poor prices?

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<v Speaker 3>Generally, consumers right now are being just more frugal, and

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<v Speaker 3>we're seeing that across the board, even in things like

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<v Speaker 3>flour demand or rice demand. People are just not spending

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<v Speaker 3>quite as much money. We're seeing that also in the

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<v Speaker 3>restaurant industry, where a lot of restaurants are noting that

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<v Speaker 3>people want discounts, they want deals. They're being more cautious

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<v Speaker 3>what they're spending. A common phrase that's used is downgrading consumption.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, people are still going out, they're still spending money.

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<v Speaker 3>But if previously they were spending you know, one hundred

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<v Speaker 3>remen be on dinner, now they're probably trying to spend seventy.

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<v Speaker 3>So it's just this downgrading of consumption.

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<v Speaker 2>What about the production? And I guess sort of implications

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<v Speaker 2>for investors, like if we know that China's consumption of

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<v Speaker 2>agricultural goods is going to sort of flatline, well grow

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<v Speaker 2>at a slower pace in the coming years, does that

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<v Speaker 2>open up space for Chinese investors to look offshore that

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<v Speaker 2>increase competition for investors. You know, we've seen Chinese investors

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<v Speaker 2>buying farmland in North America for example. What are sort

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<v Speaker 2>of those implications.

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<v Speaker 3>So one of the big things we've seen this here

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<v Speaker 3>is because of the scower growth, we've seen, for example,

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<v Speaker 3>hog populations decline. We've seen soybean imports are relatively weak

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<v Speaker 3>on the sort of international markets in Chicago, we've seen

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<v Speaker 3>soybean's fall to very low levels. Soybean futures, we've seen

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<v Speaker 3>corn prices relatively weak. Same thing with wheat, where China's

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<v Speaker 3>had a very good wheat crop, but there's not that

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<v Speaker 3>much demand. So that's definitely pressure and global markets from

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<v Speaker 3>the demand side because China is simply buying less.

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<v Speaker 1>Sit down, if you are a say like a weight

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<v Speaker 1>or a soybean farmer sitting in the US or maybe

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<v Speaker 1>even Brazil, what's the strategy going forward because it sounds

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<v Speaker 1>like China's going to be consuming less these products.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, I think it raises the issue of diversification

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<v Speaker 3>of finding these new markets because for the past let's

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<v Speaker 3>say twenty years, China has been the demand driver. Pretty much.

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<v Speaker 3>Every year demand would go up, China would import more,

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<v Speaker 3>and that was your market. So now we're faced with

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<v Speaker 3>the scenario where China is not going to stop buying,

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<v Speaker 3>but they're not going to increase every single year and

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<v Speaker 3>they're not going to be the biggest demand driver in

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<v Speaker 3>the world. So I think it's important for those people

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<v Speaker 3>to understand that they need to diversify markets. And we've

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<v Speaker 3>been seeing this in some countries where for example, Australia

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<v Speaker 3>is trying to make sure that they've got a diversified

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<v Speaker 3>supply chain and just selling to a broader range of countries,

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<v Speaker 3>and that does mean expanding and making those trade connections

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<v Speaker 3>in new countries because the sort of year on year

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<v Speaker 3>endless growth that we've seen out of China is not

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<v Speaker 3>happening at this point.

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<v Speaker 2>Basically, does that weaken the demand for certain commodities now

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<v Speaker 2>you talked about like soybeans, wheat prices longer term, does

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<v Speaker 2>that kind of add pressure on those commodities that China

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<v Speaker 2>usually eats up.

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<v Speaker 3>I think that we'll still see relatively good demand for that,

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<v Speaker 3>it's just going to be from different markets. So for example,

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<v Speaker 3>you know plenty of markets in Africa and South Asia

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<v Speaker 3>they're having huge population growth, rising incomes, and what we've

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<v Speaker 3>seen from China, I think we can apply to these

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<v Speaker 3>countries as well. As people get wealthier, they're going to

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<v Speaker 3>eat more meat, they're going to consume more protein, They're

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<v Speaker 3>going to have more money to spend on food, and

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<v Speaker 3>they will spend it on food. I mean, we've seen

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<v Speaker 3>this in China. I think it's just shifting the markets

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<v Speaker 3>from where it was traditionally to maybe new markets.

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<v Speaker 1>China's had this big self sufficiency push in a number

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<v Speaker 1>of industries for a number of decades. How has China

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<v Speaker 1>been Has it been successful in the self sufficiency for agriculture,

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<v Speaker 1>for food?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, so it's been relatively I would say mixed. For contexts.

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<v Speaker 3>In the past decade, China's faced a lot of potential

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<v Speaker 3>supply sharks. I mean, we had the trade world between

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<v Speaker 3>China and the US. We had the sus Canal getting blocked,

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<v Speaker 3>we had COVID, we had supply chain disruptions. There's a

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<v Speaker 3>lot of reasons that China is worried about it self sufficiency,

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<v Speaker 3>so it has been trying to increase that, but I

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<v Speaker 3>would say the results have been relatively mixed. For example,

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<v Speaker 3>one of the big pushes is to increase soybean production.

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<v Speaker 3>China is by far the biggest importer of soybeans. They

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<v Speaker 3>import about one hundred and five million tons every year.

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<v Speaker 3>In comparison, they were growing about fifteen million tons before.

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<v Speaker 3>After the self sufficiency push, they're growing about twenty million

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<v Speaker 3>now in comparison to importing one hundred and five million.

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<v Speaker 3>That's not really going to help them much. So they've

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<v Speaker 3>been making efforts towards it, but there's some things that

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<v Speaker 3>simply can't be fixed.

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<v Speaker 2>You talked about a lot of risks there, and one

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<v Speaker 2>thing been thinking of is does this increased climate change

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<v Speaker 2>risk extreme weather events impacting harvests and yields. And we

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<v Speaker 2>recently had pretty bad flooding in China. Wonder as we

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<v Speaker 2>see this shift from China to India and of growth

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<v Speaker 2>of consumption, how does that play into these climate change disasters.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I mean this year has been very difficult in

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<v Speaker 3>terms of weather. You know, big agricultural areas in the

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<v Speaker 3>north of China had droughts to begin the year, than

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<v Speaker 3>it switched to very heavy rainfall. We've seen vegetable prices

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<v Speaker 3>go up by fifty percent in some cases, and there's

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<v Speaker 3>just been more weather volatility and that increases the risks.

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<v Speaker 3>We've seen record amounts of rainfall in some areas, We've

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<v Speaker 3>seen extreme temperatures and that's just going to have to

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<v Speaker 3>be something that needs to be adapted to, but it's

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<v Speaker 3>definitely having an impact on agriculture, on prices, and then

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<v Speaker 3>also on consumer spending.

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<v Speaker 2>Do you expect those swings to continue? I mean, climate

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<v Speaker 2>change risk is always going to be a risk. It

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<v Speaker 2>will probably intensify, storms will intensify, and the impact will intensify.

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<v Speaker 2>But in terms of agriculture in China, how are you

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<v Speaker 2>kind of thinking about that a longer term, like over

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<v Speaker 2>the next ten twenty years, just more volatility? Are there

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<v Speaker 2>certain momodity is you're eyeing?

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah?

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<v Speaker 3>I think I definitely think that there's going to be

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<v Speaker 3>more volatility as we go forward, as we're dealing with

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<v Speaker 3>climate change. And this is I think part of the

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<v Speaker 3>reason that the Chinese government is very focused on self sufficiency,

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<v Speaker 3>very focused on food security. They're making a very big

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<v Speaker 3>effort to have large stockpiles of this basically buffer stocks,

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<v Speaker 3>because if we do have a situation where there's an

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<v Speaker 3>excessive rainfall or excessive drought and we have a very

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<v Speaker 3>bad corn harvest or wheat harvest or rice harvest, they

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<v Speaker 3>want to have those stockpiles built up so that they

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<v Speaker 3>can prevent prices from going up, make sure everyone is fed.

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<v Speaker 3>And so I think part of the reason for China's

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<v Speaker 3>food security push is because of this awareness of the

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<v Speaker 3>climate risks.

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<v Speaker 1>So Darren, we've seen wheat prices as well as soybean

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<v Speaker 1>prices almost that like you know, three year lows. What's

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<v Speaker 1>the outlook going forward? It seems pretty bleak. Can we

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<v Speaker 1>see a recovery?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, it does seem pretty negative at the moment. So

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<v Speaker 3>part of the reason is on the supply side, we've

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<v Speaker 3>had relatively good crops out of the US and out

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<v Speaker 3>of Brazil. They're producing plenty of corn, plenty of soybeans,

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<v Speaker 3>plenty of wheat. And then on the demand side, China

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<v Speaker 3>has been the traditional driver for a long time and

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<v Speaker 3>now is entering a period of slower growth muted consumption.

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<v Speaker 3>So that's a bit of a perfect storm where we

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<v Speaker 3>have very good crops out of the main growing regions,

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<v Speaker 3>farmers planted quite a bit, and the weather's been good

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<v Speaker 3>there in China, demand has been relatively weak, So there

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<v Speaker 3>isn't really a terribly optimistic outlook at the moment.

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<v Speaker 2>Are there certain companies Like if you're an investor and

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<v Speaker 2>you know you're looking at what's happening with soybeans and

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<v Speaker 2>you want to invest them or else and you know

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<v Speaker 2>that Chinese demand is just not going to be there

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<v Speaker 2>the way it was the past decade. What should investors

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<v Speaker 2>be doing? Where should they be investing their money?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I think there's a couple areas that are very promising,

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<v Speaker 3>even if within China it's sort of slow. For example,

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<v Speaker 3>sea technology is going to be a very big thing.

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<v Speaker 3>So China recently approved GMO genetically modified seeds after the

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<v Speaker 3>much of the world has already adopted those. So China's

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<v Speaker 3>adopting those and they're needing to build up that industry,

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<v Speaker 3>and part of that also plays into climate change. Part

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<v Speaker 3>of GMO seeds is that they are more resistant to

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<v Speaker 3>drought or flooding, so that's a potential opportunity. Also, even

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<v Speaker 3>though pork demand is down in China, beef consumption has

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<v Speaker 3>also been rising a lot. So I've seen record levels

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<v Speaker 3>of beef and a lot of that is coming from Brazil, Australia,

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<v Speaker 3>the United States. They're shipping huge amounts of beef to China.

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<v Speaker 3>Chinese consumers are eating more and China is not going

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<v Speaker 3>to be self sufficient in that, so a lot of

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<v Speaker 3>those companies are going to benefit as well.

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<v Speaker 1>Darren, we did touch on other markets that are seeing

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<v Speaker 1>some growth, like maybe India South Asia. Can India and

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<v Speaker 1>South Asia pick up the slack from China for a start.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I think they will. It's just also adjusting to

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<v Speaker 3>sort of the scale of the market. I mean, China

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<v Speaker 3>just grew so fast, so consistently for so long, and

0:13:16.840 --> 0:13:19.200
<v Speaker 3>there's also one market, so I mean, if you're a

0:13:19.360 --> 0:13:23.280
<v Speaker 3>soybean exporter, you can just deal with China, whereas with

0:13:23.320 --> 0:13:26.439
<v Speaker 3>South Asia you're dealing with you know, bang Goadesh, you're

0:13:26.480 --> 0:13:28.760
<v Speaker 3>dealing with India, you're dealing with Sri Lanka. So it's

0:13:28.760 --> 0:13:31.000
<v Speaker 3>a little bit harder to scale at the same pace.

0:13:31.360 --> 0:13:34.600
<v Speaker 3>But I think they're definitely doing that because we've seen

0:13:35.200 --> 0:13:38.480
<v Speaker 3>a bunch of milestones in the past few years. For example,

0:13:38.559 --> 0:13:41.240
<v Speaker 3>like previously a lot of these markets would only take

0:13:41.360 --> 0:13:44.680
<v Speaker 3>containerized cargo, and now they're able to do these big

0:13:44.720 --> 0:13:48.040
<v Speaker 3>Panamax vessels, the bulk vessels. So there is a lot

0:13:48.080 --> 0:13:51.440
<v Speaker 3>of progress there and their growth rates are also very

0:13:51.559 --> 0:13:52.199
<v Speaker 3>very strong.

0:13:53.040 --> 0:13:55.480
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, you spoke about some of the ships there just

0:13:55.520 --> 0:13:58.720
<v Speaker 2>now that transport this stuff. And if you think about

0:13:59.000 --> 0:14:03.000
<v Speaker 2>Chinese demands bowing and demand from India picking up, I mean,

0:14:03.040 --> 0:14:06.280
<v Speaker 2>how could that reshape some of the ways that food

0:14:06.400 --> 0:14:10.000
<v Speaker 2>is delivered. How could that reshape not just the supply chains,

0:14:10.000 --> 0:14:13.480
<v Speaker 2>but also ports and ships and the you know sort

0:14:13.480 --> 0:14:15.760
<v Speaker 2>of trucks that you need to deliver this stuff or

0:14:15.760 --> 0:14:19.120
<v Speaker 2>they're potentially you know, opportunities there And how big of

0:14:19.120 --> 0:14:21.280
<v Speaker 2>a change do you think that'll be in the next decade.

0:14:22.480 --> 0:14:26.080
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, absolutely So. Part of the thing is China has

0:14:26.160 --> 0:14:29.600
<v Speaker 3>been very good at building large ports, deep water ports,

0:14:29.720 --> 0:14:32.920
<v Speaker 3>able to take these big Panamax vessels not only for

0:14:33.240 --> 0:14:37.640
<v Speaker 3>grain but also for iron ore, coal, other commodities. A

0:14:37.640 --> 0:14:39.440
<v Speaker 3>lot of South Asia is still at a point where

0:14:39.440 --> 0:14:42.480
<v Speaker 3>they're taking a lot of this by container, these you know,

0:14:42.720 --> 0:14:46.560
<v Speaker 3>forty foot twenty foot shipping containers bringing in that way,

0:14:46.720 --> 0:14:49.840
<v Speaker 3>which is more expensive, it's less efficient, it's more expensive.

0:14:50.040 --> 0:14:53.800
<v Speaker 3>So there's a lot of opportunities there, especially with infrastructure.

0:14:53.880 --> 0:14:57.320
<v Speaker 3>I mean, one thing that China has very good is

0:14:57.480 --> 0:15:02.080
<v Speaker 3>really good infrastructure, ports, trains, efficient shipping, and that's going

0:15:02.120 --> 0:15:04.240
<v Speaker 3>to be something that South Asia will need to build

0:15:04.280 --> 0:15:06.760
<v Speaker 3>out more. So I think there's a lot of opportunities

0:15:06.760 --> 0:15:07.480
<v Speaker 3>for growth there.

0:15:08.400 --> 0:15:12.520
<v Speaker 1>So, Darren, after what we've discussed, it sounds like being

0:15:12.560 --> 0:15:16.000
<v Speaker 1>a pig farmer is not looking too good. If you

0:15:16.040 --> 0:15:18.680
<v Speaker 1>were a farmer, what would you focus on.

0:15:20.360 --> 0:15:22.320
<v Speaker 3>If I was a farmer right now, I would focus

0:15:22.440 --> 0:15:27.080
<v Speaker 3>on probably something like beef to sell to the Chinese market.

0:15:27.440 --> 0:15:29.640
<v Speaker 3>It's not something that they are going to be self

0:15:29.680 --> 0:15:34.360
<v Speaker 3>sufficient in. Despite the long economy, people still have money

0:15:34.400 --> 0:15:37.760
<v Speaker 3>in China. There's just spending a little bit less. I

0:15:37.840 --> 0:15:41.760
<v Speaker 3>think there's still great market opportunities there and I think

0:15:41.800 --> 0:15:44.640
<v Speaker 3>it's a product that I would enjoy eating, and I

0:15:44.680 --> 0:15:47.400
<v Speaker 3>think that those customers there would as well.

0:15:48.280 --> 0:15:50.400
<v Speaker 2>And why is it so tricky for China to get

0:15:50.400 --> 0:15:52.160
<v Speaker 2>self sufficiency with beef production.

0:15:53.720 --> 0:15:56.880
<v Speaker 3>It's basically they have limited land. I mean, if you

0:15:56.920 --> 0:15:59.560
<v Speaker 3>look at someplace like I'm from Iowa, we have wide

0:15:59.600 --> 0:16:03.240
<v Speaker 3>open fees. You look at someplace like Brazil, wide open fields.

0:16:03.400 --> 0:16:06.080
<v Speaker 3>China is a very crowded country. On top of that,

0:16:06.520 --> 0:16:09.160
<v Speaker 3>it's also they don't have the forged materials, so they

0:16:09.200 --> 0:16:11.440
<v Speaker 3>need to import a lot of alfalfa and hay to

0:16:11.560 --> 0:16:14.520
<v Speaker 3>feed these cows. So it's just something that they're never

0:16:14.560 --> 0:16:17.920
<v Speaker 3>really going to have the space because beef farming takes

0:16:17.960 --> 0:16:18.600
<v Speaker 3>a lot of space.

0:16:18.880 --> 0:16:21.200
<v Speaker 1>That's quite interesting. But some of the neighboring countries are

0:16:21.360 --> 0:16:23.760
<v Speaker 1>very famous with beef, like Japan and Korea.

0:16:24.520 --> 0:16:27.920
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, and they do import there, but it also comes

0:16:27.960 --> 0:16:30.000
<v Speaker 3>down to the scale. So I mean the biggest supplier

0:16:30.040 --> 0:16:33.200
<v Speaker 3>to beef right now to China is Brazil, and then

0:16:33.240 --> 0:16:38.160
<v Speaker 3>we have after that Australia, Argentina and the US. So yeah,

0:16:38.240 --> 0:16:41.080
<v Speaker 3>I mean the Japanese beef is very good, but it's

0:16:41.080 --> 0:16:44.720
<v Speaker 3>also very expensive, whereas Brazil it's more affordable.

0:16:45.640 --> 0:16:48.080
<v Speaker 2>Yeah. It makes you think about potential pain points for

0:16:48.160 --> 0:16:49.560
<v Speaker 2>future tariffs as well.

0:16:50.480 --> 0:16:54.080
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, we've definitely seen that, especially with the European Union

0:16:54.240 --> 0:16:57.200
<v Speaker 3>over the past few months, because the European Union put

0:16:57.320 --> 0:17:00.960
<v Speaker 3>tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. In recent sponse, China has

0:17:00.960 --> 0:17:05.280
<v Speaker 3>put tariffs on pork from the EU and now recently dairy.

0:17:05.920 --> 0:17:09.159
<v Speaker 3>So it is a point of leverage. Because China is

0:17:09.200 --> 0:17:12.960
<v Speaker 3>such a net importer of agricultural products, it's very easy

0:17:13.000 --> 0:17:15.240
<v Speaker 3>for them to put tariffs on that certain country. We

0:17:15.240 --> 0:17:18.880
<v Speaker 3>saw that with Australia back in twenty twenty. So yeah,

0:17:19.400 --> 0:17:22.480
<v Speaker 3>it does also provide the government a large amount of

0:17:22.600 --> 0:17:27.240
<v Speaker 3>leverage in sort of trade wars, trade disputes, or political disagreements.

0:17:29.000 --> 0:17:32.680
<v Speaker 1>Yeah. So Darren, China seems to have water problems at

0:17:32.680 --> 0:17:35.880
<v Speaker 1>both ends of the spectrum. Some areas appoint to flooding.

0:17:35.880 --> 0:17:38.800
<v Speaker 1>As you mentioned, you know, some are prone to droughts.

0:17:39.160 --> 0:17:42.960
<v Speaker 1>What's the bigger risk and which areas in China are

0:17:43.119 --> 0:17:44.119
<v Speaker 1>the most exposed.

0:17:45.320 --> 0:17:48.760
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, it's definitely a serious problem. This year, for example,

0:17:48.880 --> 0:17:52.360
<v Speaker 3>we've had Southern China facing way too much rain, we've

0:17:52.400 --> 0:17:55.119
<v Speaker 3>had Northern China had a drought at the beginning of

0:17:55.160 --> 0:17:58.800
<v Speaker 3>the year, and it is a very serious problem, especially

0:17:58.880 --> 0:18:03.160
<v Speaker 3>in northern China. The groundwater levels have been depleted over

0:18:03.200 --> 0:18:06.560
<v Speaker 3>the past several decades. So when there was a drought

0:18:06.600 --> 0:18:09.840
<v Speaker 3>situation earlier this year in northern China, a lot of

0:18:09.880 --> 0:18:12.840
<v Speaker 3>the farmers were simply struggling to get water out of

0:18:12.880 --> 0:18:16.520
<v Speaker 3>the groundwater wells. They were running dry. And this is

0:18:16.560 --> 0:18:20.240
<v Speaker 3>not a one time thing. The groundwater levels have been

0:18:20.240 --> 0:18:24.640
<v Speaker 3>depleted over several decades due to this farming, and it's

0:18:24.640 --> 0:18:27.400
<v Speaker 3>going to be a very serious challenge if you have

0:18:27.480 --> 0:18:31.840
<v Speaker 3>sort of acute droughts or periods without rain. Sometimes, you know,

0:18:31.880 --> 0:18:35.280
<v Speaker 3>farmers will pump from a well give the field irrigated,

0:18:35.720 --> 0:18:38.720
<v Speaker 3>but if you're doing that over decades and you run

0:18:38.720 --> 0:18:42.399
<v Speaker 3>out of water, that creates a very serious risk. The

0:18:42.440 --> 0:18:45.159
<v Speaker 3>crops that are probably most affected by that would be corn,

0:18:45.480 --> 0:18:49.960
<v Speaker 3>wheat and then also just vegetable production as well.

0:18:50.160 --> 0:18:54.120
<v Speaker 2>So, Darren, you mentioned that you previously lived in Shanghai

0:18:54.160 --> 0:18:58.280
<v Speaker 2>for some time, you have since moved to Ireland. Any

0:18:58.280 --> 0:19:01.919
<v Speaker 2>initial takeaways on the food, different things you're seeing in

0:19:01.960 --> 0:19:02.960
<v Speaker 2>the grocery store.

0:19:03.880 --> 0:19:07.439
<v Speaker 3>I think my biggest impression is just the changes in

0:19:07.480 --> 0:19:11.480
<v Speaker 3>the vegetables. So being in Shanghai, you could go down

0:19:11.520 --> 0:19:15.000
<v Speaker 3>to any wet market and they have the widest variety

0:19:15.080 --> 0:19:18.280
<v Speaker 3>of French vegetables you've ever seen, just everything, and it's

0:19:18.280 --> 0:19:22.320
<v Speaker 3>also very cheap, and I would say in comparison, Ireland

0:19:22.880 --> 0:19:25.480
<v Speaker 3>has maybe less variety and it's also a little bit

0:19:25.480 --> 0:19:28.840
<v Speaker 3>more expensive. So I'm definitely missing some of my traditional

0:19:29.040 --> 0:19:31.280
<v Speaker 3>sort of Chinese staples that I used to cook.

0:19:31.640 --> 0:19:38.040
<v Speaker 1>Okay, great, it's been an interesting conversation on China agriculture,

0:19:38.200 --> 0:19:41.760
<v Speaker 1>it's food security and the impact on climate change. Thank

0:19:41.800 --> 0:19:43.520
<v Speaker 1>you Darren for appearing on the show.

0:19:43.800 --> 0:19:44.959
<v Speaker 3>Thanks so much for having me.

0:19:45.400 --> 0:19:46.639
<v Speaker 1>I'm John Lee in Hong.

0:19:46.600 --> 0:19:49.399
<v Speaker 2>Kong, and I'm Katy Dmitrieva, also in Hong Kong.

0:19:49.760 --> 0:19:52.640
<v Speaker 1>And this podcast was produced by Clara Chen and you've

0:19:52.640 --> 0:19:54.640
<v Speaker 1>been listening to the Asia Centric podcast