Speaker 1: The shocking math how bitcoin will reach forty three billion dollars.
Speaker 1: We're going to break down the math. Now, in life,
Speaker 1: there are no such things on certainties. There's only probabilities,
Speaker 1: and we bet on those probabilities every single day. That's
Speaker 1: exactly what markets are. And Bitcoin has beaten the odds
Speaker 1: over and over. It's been called dead hundreds of times,
Speaker 1: it's crashed dozens of times, and yet it keeps coming
Speaker 1: back stronger every single time. And now today it's crossing
Speaker 1: what we call the chasm as we see Blackrock and
Speaker 1: Fidelity adding millions of people. We have three US presidential
Speaker 1: candidates openly discussing bitcoin, and so today for those of
Speaker 1: you with an open mind and are willing to understand
Speaker 1: that again, everything in life is a probability, I'm going
Speaker 1: to break down the math. I'm going to break down
Speaker 1: the future potential of Bitcoin like it's never been done before.
Speaker 1: I'm going to show you the odds. I'm going to
Speaker 1: show you the path it will take. We're going to
Speaker 1: look at the different price points along the way, the timeframes,
Speaker 1: and of course how to play this. If you're a
Speaker 1: huge bitcoin skeptic or you're a diehard bitcoin believer either way,
Speaker 1: this is for you, So let's go. All right, welcome back.
Speaker 1: If you're new to the channel, my name is Mark Moss.
Speaker 1: I make these videos, of course, to change the way
Speaker 1: you think about money, because almost everything you've learned is
Speaker 1: wrong and it's changing. We're talking about bitcoin, we're talking
Speaker 1: about a new form of money, and most people don't
Speaker 1: understand it because as my good friend Jeff Booth, who
Speaker 1: will hear about later, he likes to say that it's
Speaker 1: very hard to see a new system, to understand a
Speaker 1: new system when you're stuck in an existing system. So look,
Speaker 1: I get it. It's difficult. So have an open mind.
Speaker 1: Now if you want the short answer, where is it going?
Speaker 1: I'm going to break the down the math to how
Speaker 1: we get to forty three billion and for some of
Speaker 1: us in our lifetime. All right, I'm going to break
Speaker 1: down the math, the path, all that. But first I
Speaker 1: want to tell you a story. Last night I was
Speaker 1: watching a brand new TV show. I think it was
Speaker 1: called The Tracker. It's not super good. It was okay,
Speaker 1: it was the very first episode that I saw. But
Speaker 1: there's this guy and he goes and finds people like
Speaker 1: people have rewards and bounties, things like that, but he
Speaker 1: would throughout the show he kept saying, if we go now,
Speaker 1: we have a ninety five percent chance, but if we
Speaker 1: wait an hour, we only have a five percent chance.
Speaker 1: If I hurry up and get you out now, I
Speaker 1: think we have a fifty percent chance. But if we wait,
Speaker 1: and he kept talking about probabilities all the time, we
Speaker 1: have a probability of this. Now if we wait, my
Speaker 1: probability drops to this. And probably I don't know, three,
Speaker 1: four or five times throughout the show he would do that,
Speaker 1: And that's how life is. So the first thing I
Speaker 1: want to let you know is that all right. So
Speaker 1: the problem that I see too many people making is
Speaker 1: they think very linear. Everything's black or white, it's this
Speaker 1: or that, there's no way this can happen, or there's
Speaker 1: no way this can happen. And that's not how life works. Okay,
Speaker 1: there's a world of possibilities. Everything is possible, and then
Speaker 1: there's probabilities or percentages that we think that this can happen.
Speaker 1: So you may be the biggest Bitcoin skeptic in the world,
Speaker 1: but still ask yourself this question, are you one hundred
Speaker 1: percent sure, one hundred percent guaranteed there's no way bitcoin
Speaker 1: will ever succeed from here, And of course the answer
Speaker 1: is no, you can't say that. Now you might say
Speaker 1: there's a ninety percent chance, Okay, great, then that ten
Speaker 1: percent you might want to listen, all right, does that
Speaker 1: makes sense? So think about things in terms of and
Speaker 1: let me break this down for you in what's going
Speaker 1: to be a masterclass. So the short answer is, like
Speaker 1: I said, forty three billion. If you just want to
Speaker 1: shut it off right now, you could have just read
Speaker 1: the title. But let me break down the mas for you.
Speaker 1: But more for than they said, how does it get there?
Speaker 1: And when? When does it happen? I bet those are
Speaker 1: the questions that you want to know, and that's what
Speaker 1: I'm going to break down. Okay, So if we start
Speaker 1: to break this down, the very first thing we have
Speaker 1: to understand is what is it? When in Silicon Valley
Speaker 1: about fifteen years ago, when they were trying to raise
Speaker 1: money for Uber, they would go, Hey, I have this
Speaker 1: new app I'm building. I want to raise one hundred million,
Speaker 1: and they'd say, what is it? Right, I'm a venture
Speaker 1: capital investor of investing in venture cap for probably over
Speaker 1: a dozen years now, that's what we do what is it?
Speaker 2: So?
Speaker 1: First of all, what is bitcoin? Is it a brand
Speaker 1: new technology? Sure, yeah, it's technology. What is it disrupting? So, okay,
Speaker 1: it's an app. Uber is an app. What is it disrupting.
Speaker 1: It's disrupting the taxi industry, the limo industry, the ride
Speaker 1: share industry. And then we look at how big those
Speaker 1: markets are, and then we look at how much we
Speaker 1: think you can pull from those We're going to break
Speaker 1: the math down in a minute. But first, what is it? So? Yes,
Speaker 1: it's a brand new technology, it's an app. What is
Speaker 1: it doing? Well, it's sort of like money, a medium
Speaker 1: of exchange. The white paper says it's peer to peer cash,
Speaker 1: electronic cash, so we exchange it for money and meaning
Speaker 1: of exchange. It's also a store of value, as we
Speaker 1: call an soov. All right now, it is winning the
Speaker 1: war of store value, which eventually could evolve into the
Speaker 1: next stage. I'm going to break that evolutionary path down
Speaker 1: for you so you can see the timeframe. But let's
Speaker 1: just talk about the store value because I want to
Speaker 1: simplify this, and I know it sounds crazy, but I'm
Speaker 1: going to make it sound very conservative so we could
Speaker 1: overshoot it. So let's just talk about the store of
Speaker 1: value right now, all right, so what we can see
Speaker 1: mini headlines that can continue to pull them. Goldman Sachs,
Speaker 1: one of the biggest financial institutions in the United States
Speaker 1: and the world, says bitcoin will not could not should,
Speaker 1: but will compete with gold as store of value. This
Speaker 1: is Goldman Sacks. We know that Larry Fink, the largest
Speaker 1: asset manager in the world from black Rock Now, went
Speaker 1: on TV a month ago saying that bitcoin is a
Speaker 1: flight to safety. Right, so it's a store of value.
Speaker 1: We know this. We can see Kathy Wood, who runs
Speaker 1: one of the biggest tech funds in Wall Street. She
Speaker 1: says that bitcoin describing bitcoin as both. So it's both,
Speaker 1: it's multiple things. It's more things than we'll know in
Speaker 1: the future. Both a store of value and a risk
Speaker 1: off asset, meaning we use it to store wealth, but
Speaker 1: we also use it to when there's times of risk
Speaker 1: or high inflation. Wood emphasize that when compared to gold,
Speaker 1: the upward trajectory hints at the possibility of overtaking gold
Speaker 1: as a more valuable investment in the future. Okay, so
Speaker 1: you can see this from any number of people. It
Speaker 1: is a store of value. It's winning the store of value.
Speaker 1: Bitcoin is like digital gold, all right, but it's better
Speaker 1: than gold. I'm not going to break down all the
Speaker 1: ways in this video. If you want a separate video
Speaker 1: comparing bitcoin to gold, let me know. I can make
Speaker 1: another video on that. But you have to understand that
Speaker 1: it doesn't compete directly with gold, because it's better from
Speaker 1: that standpoint. And again the markets tell us that that's
Speaker 1: not just my opinion. If you're a goldbug, I am too.
Speaker 1: I've been at goldbug since two thousand and eight. I
Speaker 1: own gold, I talk about gold all the time. But
Speaker 1: you still have to understand this. Don't be mad. This
Speaker 1: is what the markets tell us. As a matter of fact,
Speaker 1: we can see here the pace of inflows. Now we
Speaker 1: have these new bitcoin ETFs, so the markets are now voting.
Speaker 1: The pace of money going into the ETFs is remarkable.
Speaker 1: In just fifteen days, In only fifteen days, the first
Speaker 1: fifteen days open, the bitcoin ETFs attracted over twenty five
Speaker 1: billion dollars, comparable to the market cap of the largest
Speaker 1: gold producer, Bear Gold. Within fifteen days, more money went
Speaker 1: into these bitcoin ETFs than the entire market cap of
Speaker 1: the largest gold producer. Think about that we can see
Speaker 1: right here, this unparalleled growth to the second largest assets
Speaker 1: under management AUM among US commodity ETFs, establishing them as
Speaker 1: the new digital gold. So they surpassed silver, and they
Speaker 1: are growing way faster than gold ever did, and they're
Speaker 1: catching up to At the rate they're at, they could
Speaker 1: overtake gold in the next year. All right, So the
Speaker 1: markets are telling us this, it's not just commentators, right,
Speaker 1: But we have to also understand as a store of value,
Speaker 1: it's not competing in an industry, right, So uber was
Speaker 1: competing against taxis, Uber was competing against limousines. Bitcoin as
Speaker 1: a store of value doesn't compete with industries. It's not
Speaker 1: competing with Visa or PayPal. For people to make those
Speaker 1: comparisons as ridiculous. It's a store of value, So it
Speaker 1: competes against other store of value assets. That's what's scoring.
Speaker 1: That's what it's actually competing against. And we can see
Speaker 1: that the market that it's going after, the market it's
Speaker 1: competing in is value itself. Okay, so it's not It
Speaker 1: is a new technology, but it's not Visa, it's not MasterCard,
Speaker 1: it's not Facebook. It's competing against other store value assets
Speaker 1: such as gold, for value itself. All right, hopefully that
Speaker 1: makes sense. Now, we also have to realize that the
Speaker 1: world has changed a lot, and what's happened is as
Speaker 1: the world has rapidly changed money and our technology into
Speaker 1: store of value has not. So we are in the
Speaker 1: digital revolution. I'm sure you know that by now. You're
Speaker 1: watching me over the internet, so of course you're part
Speaker 1: of the digital revolution. What we've seen is that while
Speaker 1: the digital revolution has digitized everything, music, movies, books, videos,
Speaker 1: everything's become digitized, our money hasn't. And actually, this cool image,
Speaker 1: all these images were created by chat GBT. Pretty interesting
Speaker 1: and this shows us how all of these technologies have
Speaker 1: become digitized, books, movies, music, et cetera. And the last
Speaker 1: thing to be digitized that hasn't yet it's happening right
Speaker 1: now is digitizing value, digitizing wealth. That's what we're doing
Speaker 1: right now, and it's a monetary evolution. We have to
Speaker 1: understand that what we use as money today, well gold
Speaker 1: was money for five thousand years, has been an evolutionary
Speaker 1: process and this is the next step, the digitization of value.
Speaker 1: This is where it's compute. That's how big the market is. Okay, now,
Speaker 1: let me just break this down to something that you
Speaker 1: can understand, so we can have something to build off of. Okay, So,
Speaker 1: as I said, gold was money for five thousand years, right,
Speaker 1: So at the end of the day, we don't want money.
Speaker 1: I know it's a shocking statement to make. I know
Speaker 1: you want a lot of money. No, we don't want money.
Speaker 1: What we want is the goods and services that money
Speaker 1: buys us. We want food, we want clothes, we want
Speaker 1: a house, we want to travel, things like that. We
Speaker 1: want the goods and services. Gold or money is what
Speaker 1: we use to get those things. And we can hold
Speaker 1: our value, our wealth, our energy in that money until
Speaker 1: we're ready to deploy it to get those goods and
Speaker 1: service that we want. So if goods and services are
Speaker 1: wealth and money is a way to acquire it, then
Speaker 1: what we do is we take all the goods and
Speaker 1: services of the world, the wealth divided by all the gold.
Speaker 1: That's the price. It's a unit of account. Everything is
Speaker 1: priced in gold or priced in money. So think about this.
Speaker 1: Gold was money. It was the store of value for
Speaker 1: five thousand years. It was the unit of account. Everything
Speaker 1: was priced in Now gold because of technology, the world
Speaker 1: started evolving and we had global trade, taking off globalization.
Speaker 1: But gold's very slow. If I want to pay from
Speaker 1: California somebody in New York with gold, it takes a
Speaker 1: long time to get that gold there. So what we
Speaker 1: did is we put the gold in the banks, and
Speaker 1: the banks then used a ledger to say, hey, you
Speaker 1: know from California. Now the guy in New York, now
Speaker 1: on the ledger shows he has the gold. The golden
Speaker 1: actually move. They just changed the ledger. That was a
Speaker 1: new piece of technology, all right, but that didn't actually
Speaker 1: solve anything. And so what we did is we created
Speaker 1: paper dollars, Fiat money, paper dollars that represented the gold
Speaker 1: in the bank. So we had one US dollar was
Speaker 1: equal to twenty ounces of gold. Let me show you
Speaker 1: the chart. This is the gold price chart for the
Speaker 1: last one hundred years. So what we can see since
Speaker 1: the eighteen hundreds, twenty US dollars equaled one ounce of gold.
Speaker 1: Then in nineteen thirty three, I've talked about this extensively,
Speaker 1: because all the gold went into the bank, the government
Speaker 1: just took it all. They seized it all. They don't
Speaker 1: want to say they seized it. They bought it from
Speaker 1: you forcibly. What they did is they revalued it to
Speaker 1: now be thirty five dollars for one ounce of gold.
Speaker 1: You can see that twenty and then it was thirty
Speaker 1: five this whole time. Now, this red line here is
Speaker 1: where we ended the gold standard and we no longer
Speaker 1: had relation to the price of gold. But the reason
Speaker 1: why I want you to understand this for right now
Speaker 1: is because at this time all the dollars in existence
Speaker 1: were divided by all the gold, and it was twenty
Speaker 1: dollars for every one ounce, and then it was thirty
Speaker 1: five dollars. So they printed way too many of them.
Speaker 1: That's why they had to seize the gold. Then they
Speaker 1: took it was thirty five dollars for every one ounce
Speaker 1: of gold. You're understanding this, But again, in nineteen seventy one,
Speaker 1: we left the gold standard, and you can see by
Speaker 1: this chart right here is where we left. Now, what
Speaker 1: I did is I took a trend line, and you
Speaker 1: can see the trend line we were on. And if
Speaker 1: we hadn't left the gold standard here, we would have
Speaker 1: about this much money in circulation today. This is the
Speaker 1: M two chart. This shows how much dollars are in circulation. Okay,
Speaker 1: so we would have about this much, but of course
Speaker 1: they would have needed to get more gold. But then
Speaker 1: nineteen seventy one we got a new trend line and
Speaker 1: that took us to hear right around here. In the
Speaker 1: year two thousand, we got a new trend line that
Speaker 1: takes us to here. Two thousand and eight, we got
Speaker 1: a new trend line that takes us to here. In
Speaker 1: twenty twenty, we have a new trend line. And look
Speaker 1: at that trend that we're on. Here's the problem. They've
Speaker 1: added more of those paper currencies, but they didn't add
Speaker 1: more gold because of course we're no longer on a
Speaker 1: gold system, which is why you can see this right here.
Speaker 1: All right, But you have to understand this to understand
Speaker 1: where we're going. We had all the dollars in existence
Speaker 1: divided by all the gold, and that's gone. But that's
Speaker 1: the way it works, and we have to go back
Speaker 1: to it. We are in a fifty two or in
Speaker 1: about a fifty two year experiment that's gone horribly wrong.
Speaker 1: I'll show you how it's gone horribly wrong in a minute. Okay,
Speaker 1: So now that you understand that, you hear a lot
Speaker 1: of people talking about maybe going back to the gold
Speaker 1: stand the rise of bricks. Bricks are going to launch
Speaker 1: their own gold back currency. You've heard me talk about
Speaker 1: that extensively. You have Jim Rickards and Peter Schiff talking
Speaker 1: about we're going to go back to gold. And the
Speaker 1: reason why is because gold was money for five thousand years.
Speaker 1: For fifty years, we've tried this little fiat experiment. It's
Speaker 1: failed horribly wrong, and so the only way that governments
Speaker 1: will get trust back into fiat currency is to back
Speaker 1: it with something like gold. Again, you've heard that many times.
Speaker 1: So this is how this would work. Let me break
Speaker 1: it down. In the United States, there's about twenty trillion
Speaker 1: dollars of currency of paper of fiat currency twenty tint
Speaker 1: the US supposedly, I don't know if I believe this
Speaker 1: holds eight thousand tons of gold. So then what you
Speaker 1: would do is you would take the eight thousand tons
Speaker 1: is two hundred and eighty two million ounces, So you
Speaker 1: take the twenty trillion divided by the two hundred and
Speaker 1: eighty two million ounces, and that would give you a
Speaker 1: new gold price of seventy thousand dollars per ounce of gold.
Speaker 1: At the twenty dollars per ounce of gold up until
Speaker 1: ninety thirty three, the thirty five up to nine seventy one.
Speaker 1: That's how it worked. And to go back to a
Speaker 1: gold standard one hundred percent back this would be the
Speaker 1: new math. That's why goldbugs want this to go back
Speaker 1: to a gold standard, and they want to hold gold
Speaker 1: because they think they're two thousand dollars an ounce gold
Speaker 1: will go to seventy thousand ounce. It'd be pretty amazing
Speaker 1: if that happened, although Big one's going to do better.
Speaker 1: I'll break the math down now. We also have to
Speaker 1: think globally, all right, because this is not just the
Speaker 1: US the US dollars, the global observe currency bus of
Speaker 1: the euro dollar going on, so we have to think globally.
Speaker 1: So if we think globally, there's about eighty seven trillion
Speaker 1: dollars globally and about we don't really know because China
Speaker 1: doesn't really report it properly, but approximately one hundred and
Speaker 1: eighty seven thousand tons of gold in the whole world,
Speaker 1: all the gold in the world that's ever been brought
Speaker 1: above ground is still above ground. It's not really a
Speaker 1: consumable good. I think all the gold in the world
Speaker 1: fits in like a football field. It's not even that much.
Speaker 1: One hundred eighty seven thousand tons, which is six billion ounces.
Speaker 1: So we take the eighty seven trillion dollars of currency
Speaker 1: divided by the six billion ounces would give us about
Speaker 1: a thirteen thousand dollars price per goal. Does that make sense? Okay?
Speaker 1: So now that we've gone through that math, you're ready
Speaker 1: to understand the next step in the process. Okay, So
Speaker 1: you remember we've made a couple of cases here. Gold
Speaker 1: was what we used to measure or price things in.
Speaker 1: Wealth is goods and services, not gold. Wealth is the
Speaker 1: goods and services. The gold is what it was priced in,
Speaker 1: and so we had to divide the goods and services
Speaker 1: by the wealth by the gold. So now what other
Speaker 1: global assets are there? How do we measure how much
Speaker 1: goods and services are out there? How much wealth is
Speaker 1: out there? Well, there's a couple of ways we can
Speaker 1: look at this. All of these global assets are well,
Speaker 1: we're looking at the global assets right now for this
Speaker 1: math in store of value assets. There's lots of assets,
Speaker 1: but we don't store our wealth in all types of assets. So,
Speaker 1: just for this exercise, being conservative, I know this sounds crazy,
Speaker 1: we're only looking at what we call store of value assets,
Speaker 1: things that you would put your money into such as
Speaker 1: gold is a store of value asset real estate. Sure,
Speaker 1: I have a house there, but I park my wealth
Speaker 1: in real estate as well, bonds, stocks, things like that. Okay,
Speaker 1: so if we look at that. Here's a chart from
Speaker 1: Jesse Croasis. He did an amazing write up on this.
Speaker 1: We're going to link to it in the description down
Speaker 1: below if you want to read his rite up and
Speaker 1: break down of this. But we have store of value
Speaker 1: assets right here, gold, cars, other collectibles. So rich people
Speaker 1: buy really old collectible cars, things like that, they store
Speaker 1: their wealth in there. One of my buddies down the
Speaker 1: streets got a couple Mustangs that are worth millions of dollars.
Speaker 1: Pretty cool, doesn't drive them fine? Art of course, stock market, right,
Speaker 1: we buy stock to put our wealth in their real estate,
Speaker 1: Like I said, not just your home, but other real
Speaker 1: estate that you invest in, bonds, and of course money.
Speaker 1: If we add those up, we have twelve trillion dollars
Speaker 1: in gold, six trillion in collectibles, eighteen trillion in fine art,
Speaker 1: one hundred and fifteen trillion, and you do the math.
Speaker 1: It totals nine hundred trillion dollars. If we add all
Speaker 1: that up. Now again back to the uber example, uber
Speaker 1: is going to disrupt taxis, limos vans. What percentage do
Speaker 1: we think it can get from each of those markets?
Speaker 1: So conservatively, do we think bitcoin could capture fifty percent
Speaker 1: of the gold market cap? I think so, Golden Sacks,
Speaker 1: this is going to overtake it. So fifty percent. That
Speaker 1: puts bitcoin at six trillion, cars, other collectibles. It's not
Speaker 1: going to take the whole thing. People like cars, people
Speaker 1: like collectibles, people like fine art. But could it take
Speaker 1: five percent? I think that's reasonable, fine art five percent,
Speaker 1: sure stock market fifteen percent, I think reasonable, real estate
Speaker 1: fifteen percent. Okay, bonds thirty percent, money thirty percent. That
Speaker 1: brings us to two hundred trillion dollars just at those levels,
Speaker 1: and this could happen over the next five, six, seven years.
Speaker 1: All right, I'll get more to the timeframe. We'll break
Speaker 1: this map down a little bit more. But that would
Speaker 1: put it one bitcoin to ten million dollars. It's a
Speaker 1: big number, ten million dollars just forgetting these pieces. Now.
Speaker 1: We're not even adding all the other use cases, the
Speaker 1: money exchanging, we're not including all the technologies being built
Speaker 1: on bitcoin. We're just talking about store of value assets only,
Speaker 1: all right, so you can see that math. Now let's
Speaker 1: keep going here. Now, remember there's no such thing as certainties,
Speaker 1: there's only probabilities. So is this a probable outcome? But
Speaker 1: what we do know is pretty much certain, ninety nine
Speaker 1: percent certain that FIAT is dead, FIAT is crashing. FIAT
Speaker 1: was an experiment. We're fifty two years into this experiment,
Speaker 1: five thousand years of using sound money, fifty two years
Speaker 1: of FIAT, and it's dead. It's over. There's pretty much
Speaker 1: no way I can continue from here. Like I said,
Speaker 1: they're going to have to figure out a way to
Speaker 1: bring some trust back into the system. So what options
Speaker 1: do we have. Well, I did a video a couple
Speaker 1: months ago in Amsterdam, or I gave a talk at
Speaker 1: a conference in Amsdam a couple months ago. Let's go
Speaker 1: ahead and just play this clip so you can hear it.
Speaker 1: We can see this system is shifting. If you're paying attention,
Speaker 1: they're buying gold. The problem is that already failed before.
Speaker 1: We live in a information world today. We need money
Speaker 1: to transfer at the speed of our transactions over the internet,
Speaker 1: and gold can't do that. Gold requires trust. Since gold
Speaker 1: can't transfer immediately, are someone to hold a ledger and
Speaker 1: if someone's holding the ledger, we must trust that person.
Speaker 1: But trust is lost. So if that doesn't work, if
Speaker 1: we don't go back to commodities, where do we go. Well,
Speaker 1: the next solution is central bank digital currencies, because that
Speaker 1: should fix everything. Right, The CBDCs seem to be the
Speaker 1: next logical step. But the problem is I would call
Speaker 1: this not de evolution, I'd call it zero evolution because
Speaker 1: it's basically the exact same thing that we have right now.
Speaker 1: It still allows US central banks to print unlimited amounts
Speaker 1: of money. So if we have a problem of inless
Speaker 1: money printing, then we need to fix it. We need
Speaker 1: a solution that has a fixed supply, doesn't allow anybody
Speaker 1: to have in this money printing. And in a multipolar world,
Speaker 1: whether we're no longer in the current monetary order or
Speaker 1: the current international order that we have today, a US
Speaker 1: led order with a US dollar reserve currency in a
Speaker 1: paper fiat monetary system, moving to a multipolar world, how
Speaker 1: does the world move forward when there is no trust?
Speaker 1: In a world where trust is gone, it's almost like
Speaker 1: we need a decentralized ledger that's trust lists. And so
Speaker 1: in this new world order that we're going into, the
Speaker 1: question is left, if not bitcoined, then what all right,
Speaker 1: so you can hear from there like the options are
Speaker 1: one we go back to gold, but gold already failed
Speaker 1: because it's old technology. We live in a world of
Speaker 1: instant transactions and we need instant settlement, but gold can
Speaker 1: never do that without adding debt and adding trust in
Speaker 1: the system, which there is no trust in the system anymore.
Speaker 1: So gold doesn't work. The other option is well, a CBDC,
Speaker 1: but that's basically still FIAT and the problem is the
Speaker 1: unlimited money printing in the debt, so that doesn't fix
Speaker 1: it either. So, as I put in the question at
Speaker 1: the end of debt presentation, if not bitcoined, then what
Speaker 1: So it's not guaranteed, but is it at least probable?
Speaker 1: Do you think there's a twenty percent chance that people
Speaker 1: move to it? I mean, we're certainly seeing that happen now.
Speaker 1: Is there a thirty, forty fifty percent chance. We'll come
Speaker 1: back to that in a second. Let's look at some
Speaker 1: of the time frames that is happening on now. Remember
Speaker 1: I said this is an evolutionary process. One of the
Speaker 1: biggest problems that people have with understanding this is they
Speaker 1: expect way too much too soon. Imagine you and I
Speaker 1: walking through a forest of redwoods and we find this
Speaker 1: little tree like this big, and I'm like, oh my gosh,
Speaker 1: look at this little tree. Look how cool it is. Can
Speaker 1: you imagine that this tree one day is going to
Speaker 1: be as big as these other trees? And You're like, Oh,
Speaker 1: that's stupid, Mark, that tree will never be that big.
Speaker 1: Look how small it is. How could it ever grow
Speaker 1: that big? And I'm like, but give it time, give
Speaker 1: it a couple decades. It's like it'll get there. Right.
Speaker 1: So you have to understand things take time, and there's
Speaker 1: an evolutionary path that things have to go down. Another
Speaker 1: image by chat GBT showing this evolutionary path. So what
Speaker 1: am I talking about? Let's take a look at this
Speaker 1: evolutionary path. So remember, as I said money, If you
Speaker 1: study thousands of years of history of money, rocks, feathers, seashells, gold,
Speaker 1: you understand it. It was always emergent and it was always
Speaker 1: an evolution. Happens is it starts right here as a collectible.
Speaker 1: Oh this is a pretty cool rock. I think I'm
Speaker 1: going to keep it. It's a collectible. Oh look at
Speaker 1: this baseball card, This Pokemon card. I like this, I'll
Speaker 1: collect it. Now, there's a lot of things that become collectibles.
Speaker 1: But if maybe, sometimes they could evolve to the next stage,
Speaker 1: which could become a store of value. So baseball cards
Speaker 1: are stores of value. Some people store millions of dollars
Speaker 1: in baseball cards, Pokemon cards, watches. Not all collectibles make
Speaker 1: the evolution to store value, but a lot do. Now
Speaker 1: if maybe, if they have the right attributes of money, portable, divisible, durable, recognizable,
Speaker 1: things like that, then maybe it could evolve to the
Speaker 1: next stage from a store value to a medium of exchange. Okay,
Speaker 1: so now it's big enough, it's a big enough asset class,
Speaker 1: it's widely accepted, it has that right attributes, like I said,
Speaker 1: and now people use it as a medium exchange. And
Speaker 1: then maybe, if potentially, if it could, we could evolve
Speaker 1: to the next stage, which is a unit of account,
Speaker 1: which means everything's priced in that thing. Now. Right now,
Speaker 1: everything's priced in dollars. Oil's priced in dollars, gold priced
Speaker 1: in dollars. Most of the world prices things in dollars
Speaker 1: because it is the currency of the world. Now some
Speaker 1: countries have other currencies, but you get my point. You're
Speaker 1: still pricing it in that currency. So this is the
Speaker 1: evolutionary path. I think we are somewhere right around here.
Speaker 1: We've already checked all these boxes and we have a
Speaker 1: little bit ways to go. Now, what time frame are
Speaker 1: we looking at? All? Right? I showed you the path.
Speaker 1: What is the time frame? Now? That evolutionary path doesn't
Speaker 1: mean it's guaranteed. Remember life is about probabilities, but we
Speaker 1: can continue to watch that now over what time frame? Now,
Speaker 1: when you look back through technological revolutions, you realize they
Speaker 1: happen about every fifty years. You've heard me talk extensively
Speaker 1: about technology cycles. So this is a path. This is
Speaker 1: where bitcoin started right here, and we are sitting somewhere
Speaker 1: right about here right now, we're in this path. You're
Speaker 1: not too late. We still have all this to go
Speaker 1: right here before we start to level out. And I
Speaker 1: think we really see all this happen by about twenty fifty.
Speaker 1: So I don't know where you're at in your stage
Speaker 1: of life right now. You could be alive to see
Speaker 1: this happen. Now, none of this is guaranteed, but this
Speaker 1: is the most probable outcome going back to old technology
Speaker 1: of gold or what that's the question, and you can
Speaker 1: see we're rapidly heading for this. Now we're literally living
Speaker 1: through this. We're literally watching this revolution. We're watching this
Speaker 1: financial revolution cycle end right in front of us. Okay, great,
Speaker 1: So now you understand what it's attacking value itself. You
Speaker 1: understand that's the evolutionary path and what that process looks like.
Speaker 1: You understand the time frame. Now let's talk about the prices. Now.
Speaker 1: I talked about forty three billion, you know, in fifty
Speaker 1: sixty years from now, but where is it in a
Speaker 1: year from now, or four or five years from now,
Speaker 1: seven or eight years from now. Let's talk about that
Speaker 1: for now, all right, So, how Finny was one of
Speaker 1: the main developers that developed bitcoin. He worked with Satoshi Nakamoto, which, yes,
Speaker 1: nobody knows who he is, but we know lots of
Speaker 1: the other helopers that worked on it with Satoshi, including
Speaker 1: howf any Adam back, Nigsabo, et cetera. So how Finnie
Speaker 1: was a developer. Now, back in two thousand and nine
Speaker 1: when it was released, we just got a whole bunch
Speaker 1: of Satoshi's emails released to the public. We can see
Speaker 1: this was January tenth, two thousand and nine, and he
Speaker 1: said here announcing the first release of bitcoin. Pretty cool,
Speaker 1: but we can see through those emails. I sort of
Speaker 1: summarized it here so you can see it easier. How
Speaker 1: Finny predicted twenty two million dollar bitcoin. This was back
Speaker 1: in two thousand and nine when it was first released.
Speaker 1: He said, not based on mere speculation, but rather on
Speaker 1: a thoughtful analysis of bitcoin's potential as a global payment system.
Speaker 1: So he back into the math sort of the same
Speaker 1: way I am. The collective value of bitcoin would align
Speaker 1: with the total wealth of the world. Wealth of the
Speaker 1: world divided by the asset unit of account, which he
Speaker 1: estimated to be within the range of one hundred trillion
Speaker 1: to three hundred trillion dollars. That was in two thousand
Speaker 1: and nine. Today it's about nine hundred trillion dollars. By
Speaker 1: dividing this value among the limited supply of twenty one
Speaker 1: mister bitcoin, Finney came up with a twenty two million
Speaker 1: dollar price per bitcoin. That was in two thousand and nine,
Speaker 1: when it was first invented. You could have picked it
Speaker 1: up for a couple of pennies. But he saw that
Speaker 1: vision that we're rapidly heading towards. What about let's hear
Speaker 1: from Chamoth Chamoth is a prolific investor in Silicon Valley
Speaker 1: early early, early into Facebook billionaire. Let's hear what he
Speaker 1: had to say Bitcoin that falls into that category, because
Speaker 1: that's what that is. Thirty nine thousand. Where's it going?
Speaker 2: I mean, can you play the clip in twenty twelve
Speaker 2: and thirteen when it was at two hundred and everybody
Speaker 2: was laughing at me on CFPC every time I would
Speaker 2: talk about bitcoin, where's it going? It's probably going to
Speaker 2: one hundred and one hundred and fifty, then two hundred
Speaker 2: thousand in what period I don't know, five years, ten years,
Speaker 2: but it's going there. And the reason is because every
Speaker 2: time you see all of this stuff happening, it just
Speaker 2: reminds you that, wow, our leaders are not as trustworthy
Speaker 2: and reliable as they used to be. And so just
Speaker 2: in case, we really do need to have some kind of,
Speaker 2: you know, insurance we can keep under our pillow that
Speaker 2: gives us some access to an uncorrelated hedge.
Speaker 1: All right now, mind you, this video is from twenty
Speaker 1: twenty one, so he's talking about it going to one hundred,
Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty all the way up to a
Speaker 1: million dollars, which is certainly doing. He says a million
Speaker 1: dollars by twenty forty. That's the timeframe he's on. What
Speaker 1: else we have we have Fidelity. Fidelity is I think
Speaker 1: the second largest asset manager in the US. They do
Speaker 1: a lot of research on bitcoin. It's the second largest
Speaker 1: bitcoin etf They predict a billion dollars for one bitcoin
Speaker 1: by twenty thirty eight, twenty thirty eight. The director of
Speaker 1: Global Macro Fidelity Investments thinks a single bitcoin could reach
Speaker 1: one billion by the year twenty thirty eight. A lot
Speaker 1: of what he's done is rooted and he's come up
Speaker 1: with this from a bunch of angles. Specifically, he says
Speaker 1: it's rooted in Metcalf's law, which is that a network
Speaker 1: continues to grow faster and faster and faster becomes more valuable.
Speaker 1: And he says it will grow to about one million
Speaker 1: per bitcoin by twenty thirty so one million by twenty thirty,
Speaker 1: one billion by twenty thirty eight. Based off of that.
Speaker 1: Now fidealite, Like I said, they put out a ton
Speaker 1: of good research and data on this, one of which
Speaker 1: is this Metscalf's law, and you can see how this
Speaker 1: price arc is working. It doesn't go up hyperbolically forever. Right,
Speaker 1: it doesn't go up straight line. It starts to taper off,
Speaker 1: but yet it still goes up. We have a million
Speaker 1: dollar bitcoin, you know, right about here, and you can
Speaker 1: see that. I'll have this other chart right here that
Speaker 1: I think is really good fidelity put together. You can
Speaker 1: get all this information directly off of their website. But
Speaker 1: this shows the different analogs. So this is the price
Speaker 1: the bitcoin price arc right here, and I know for
Speaker 1: the bitcoin skeptics, I know it crashes, right, So it
Speaker 1: goes super high, and then it crashes all the way
Speaker 1: back down, and then it stays below the trend line.
Speaker 1: And then it goes super high, and then it crashes
Speaker 1: all the way down again, and it stays below the
Speaker 1: trend and it crashes. It goes super high, and it
Speaker 1: crashes all the way down. Now some people go, well,
Speaker 1: why do wouldn't I just sell here and buy right here.
Speaker 1: Sure you can certainly try that, or you could just
Speaker 1: wait and sit and go along for the ride. Now,
Speaker 1: what about me, where do I think it's going to go? Well,
Speaker 1: I think a million dollars by twenty thirty seems pretty
Speaker 1: realistic to me. We'll see again in the world of
Speaker 1: possibilities and probabilities. I think it's highly probable we'll get there.
Speaker 1: It's certainly not guaranteed, which is why I don't put
Speaker 1: one hundred percent of my money in. We'll come back
Speaker 1: to that in a minute. But I think in the
Speaker 1: next eighteen months one hundred to one hundred and fifty
Speaker 1: thousand dollars bitcoin is kind of what I'm thinking. That's
Speaker 1: a two to three x return from here. I don't
Speaker 1: know if any other asset I can put my money
Speaker 1: into right now today that can get me that type
Speaker 1: of return. So that's kind of what I'm thinking. All right.
Speaker 1: So now that you have this information, what are you
Speaker 1: going to do with it? What do you do? Well?
Speaker 1: In the in the famous words of Satoshi Nakamoto, he
Speaker 1: said that it might make sense to get some just
Speaker 1: in case it catches on. So back to the world
Speaker 1: of probabilities, all right, Just like that show I told
Speaker 1: you I was watching, everything's a probability. So do you
Speaker 1: think that there is a fifty percent chance that bitcoin
Speaker 1: gets to one hundred and fifty thousand dollars in the
Speaker 1: next two years? Okay, and it's at fifty thousand today,
Speaker 1: that's a two x upside with a one x downside,
Speaker 1: it's pretty good odds you have fifty percent conviction of that.
Speaker 1: How much money should put in? Maybe put in fifty percent,
Speaker 1: hold the other fifty percent you can average in so
Speaker 1: you can you can buy it. You should secure it
Speaker 1: and hold it, and you can either lump some in,
Speaker 1: you can put that money in, or you can dollar
Speaker 1: cost average in over time. So buy it. That's the
Speaker 1: first thing. Do you have some do you have enough?
Speaker 1: How much should you have it? Bait depends off your conviction.
Speaker 1: Now what we're seeing Wall Street with the ETFs, we're
Speaker 1: putting two to five percent allocations in. You put two
Speaker 1: to five percent allocation in. Even if it drops by
Speaker 1: fifty percent, it's barely even going to be noticed. However,
Speaker 1: if it goes to where we think it can, then
Speaker 1: your portfolio is going to be looking pretty dang good. Now,
Speaker 1: if you're crazy and you have a lot of conviction,
Speaker 1: like I do, you might want thirty, forty five, fifty
Speaker 1: sixty percent allocation to bitcoin. Now, it also depends on
Speaker 1: how much money you have, so those other factors you
Speaker 1: need to figure that out for yourself. Buy it, then
Speaker 1: you need to secure it and hold it. The revolutionary
Speaker 1: feature of bitcoin is that I can custody it and
Speaker 1: secure it and store it myself, and so you should
Speaker 1: certainly do that. I recommend using a hardware wallet to
Speaker 1: do that. Plenty of help online. Check that Out'll go
Speaker 1: to BTC sessions on YouTube. He can show you how
Speaker 1: to do that. And then again, like I said, should
Speaker 1: I buy it now just throw my cash in as
Speaker 1: a lumpsum or should I average in over time? It
Speaker 1: depends on where your conviction is. But this video has
Speaker 1: gone long. That's about as much as I can put
Speaker 1: into it right now. But I'll make more videos. Let
Speaker 1: me know which of these you want me to dig
Speaker 1: into more. Let me know what you think. Leave me
Speaker 1: a calmed down below. Subscribe if you're not subscribed, and
Speaker 1: that's what I got to your success, I'm out