WEBVTT - Shocking Math: How Bitcoin Could Reach $43M (full breakdown) 0:00:00.160 --> 0:00:05.119 The shocking math how bitcoin will reach forty three billion dollars. 0:00:05.559 --> 0:00:08.000 We're going to break down the math. Now, in life, 0:00:08.080 --> 0:00:10.720 there are no such things on certainties. There's only probabilities, 0:00:10.960 --> 0:00:14.120 and we bet on those probabilities every single day. That's 0:00:14.160 --> 0:00:17.320 exactly what markets are. And Bitcoin has beaten the odds 0:00:17.360 --> 0:00:20.120 over and over. It's been called dead hundreds of times, 0:00:20.239 --> 0:00:23.200 it's crashed dozens of times, and yet it keeps coming 0:00:23.239 --> 0:00:26.920 back stronger every single time. And now today it's crossing 0:00:26.960 --> 0:00:29.760 what we call the chasm as we see Blackrock and 0:00:29.800 --> 0:00:34.200 Fidelity adding millions of people. We have three US presidential 0:00:34.240 --> 0:00:38.360 candidates openly discussing bitcoin, and so today for those of 0:00:38.400 --> 0:00:41.240 you with an open mind and are willing to understand 0:00:41.360 --> 0:00:44.040 that again, everything in life is a probability, I'm going 0:00:44.120 --> 0:00:46.200 to break down the math. I'm going to break down 0:00:46.200 --> 0:00:49.519 the future potential of Bitcoin like it's never been done before. 0:00:49.640 --> 0:00:51.519 I'm going to show you the odds. I'm going to 0:00:51.520 --> 0:00:53.080 show you the path it will take. We're going to 0:00:53.080 --> 0:00:56.240 look at the different price points along the way, the timeframes, 0:00:56.400 --> 0:00:58.920 and of course how to play this. If you're a 0:00:59.000 --> 0:01:03.000 huge bitcoin skeptic or you're a diehard bitcoin believer either way, 0:01:03.240 --> 0:01:06.160 this is for you, So let's go. All right, welcome back. 0:01:06.160 --> 0:01:08.120 If you're new to the channel, my name is Mark Moss. 0:01:08.160 --> 0:01:10.399 I make these videos, of course, to change the way 0:01:10.480 --> 0:01:13.080 you think about money, because almost everything you've learned is 0:01:13.120 --> 0:01:16.280 wrong and it's changing. We're talking about bitcoin, we're talking 0:01:16.280 --> 0:01:18.400 about a new form of money, and most people don't 0:01:18.440 --> 0:01:20.800 understand it because as my good friend Jeff Booth, who 0:01:20.880 --> 0:01:23.240 will hear about later, he likes to say that it's 0:01:23.319 --> 0:01:26.039 very hard to see a new system, to understand a 0:01:26.040 --> 0:01:29.120 new system when you're stuck in an existing system. So look, 0:01:29.240 --> 0:01:32.360 I get it. It's difficult. So have an open mind. 0:01:32.440 --> 0:01:34.559 Now if you want the short answer, where is it going? 0:01:34.880 --> 0:01:36.920 I'm going to break the down the math to how 0:01:36.959 --> 0:01:40.600 we get to forty three billion and for some of 0:01:40.680 --> 0:01:42.319 us in our lifetime. All right, I'm going to break 0:01:42.319 --> 0:01:44.039 down the math, the path, all that. But first I 0:01:44.040 --> 0:01:46.200 want to tell you a story. Last night I was 0:01:46.240 --> 0:01:48.240 watching a brand new TV show. I think it was 0:01:48.280 --> 0:01:50.960 called The Tracker. It's not super good. It was okay, 0:01:50.960 --> 0:01:52.880 it was the very first episode that I saw. But 0:01:52.920 --> 0:01:55.080 there's this guy and he goes and finds people like 0:01:55.120 --> 0:01:57.680 people have rewards and bounties, things like that, but he 0:01:57.720 --> 0:02:00.440 would throughout the show he kept saying, if we go now, 0:02:00.480 --> 0:02:02.360 we have a ninety five percent chance, but if we 0:02:02.400 --> 0:02:04.440 wait an hour, we only have a five percent chance. 0:02:04.680 --> 0:02:06.120 If I hurry up and get you out now, I 0:02:06.160 --> 0:02:08.040 think we have a fifty percent chance. But if we wait, 0:02:08.160 --> 0:02:10.600 and he kept talking about probabilities all the time, we 0:02:10.639 --> 0:02:12.760 have a probability of this. Now if we wait, my 0:02:12.800 --> 0:02:15.520 probability drops to this. And probably I don't know, three, 0:02:15.560 --> 0:02:17.400 four or five times throughout the show he would do that, 0:02:17.720 --> 0:02:19.920 And that's how life is. So the first thing I 0:02:19.919 --> 0:02:21.760 want to let you know is that all right. So 0:02:21.880 --> 0:02:23.359 the problem that I see too many people making is 0:02:23.400 --> 0:02:25.880 they think very linear. Everything's black or white, it's this 0:02:26.040 --> 0:02:28.440 or that, there's no way this can happen, or there's 0:02:28.440 --> 0:02:31.000 no way this can happen. And that's not how life works. Okay, 0:02:31.320 --> 0:02:35.440 there's a world of possibilities. Everything is possible, and then 0:02:35.440 --> 0:02:39.360 there's probabilities or percentages that we think that this can happen. 0:02:39.440 --> 0:02:42.480 So you may be the biggest Bitcoin skeptic in the world, 0:02:42.800 --> 0:02:46.440 but still ask yourself this question, are you one hundred 0:02:46.520 --> 0:02:50.280 percent sure, one hundred percent guaranteed there's no way bitcoin 0:02:50.320 --> 0:02:52.080 will ever succeed from here, And of course the answer 0:02:52.120 --> 0:02:53.840 is no, you can't say that. Now you might say 0:02:53.880 --> 0:02:56.520 there's a ninety percent chance, Okay, great, then that ten 0:02:56.560 --> 0:02:58.239 percent you might want to listen, all right, does that 0:02:58.320 --> 0:03:00.800 makes sense? So think about things in terms of and 0:03:00.960 --> 0:03:03.080 let me break this down for you in what's going 0:03:03.120 --> 0:03:05.320 to be a masterclass. So the short answer is, like 0:03:05.320 --> 0:03:07.480 I said, forty three billion. If you just want to 0:03:07.520 --> 0:03:08.799 shut it off right now, you could have just read 0:03:08.840 --> 0:03:10.639 the title. But let me break down the mas for you. 0:03:10.680 --> 0:03:12.720 But more for than they said, how does it get there? 0:03:13.120 --> 0:03:15.640 And when? When does it happen? I bet those are 0:03:15.680 --> 0:03:17.720 the questions that you want to know, and that's what 0:03:17.760 --> 0:03:19.919 I'm going to break down. Okay, So if we start 0:03:19.960 --> 0:03:21.640 to break this down, the very first thing we have 0:03:21.680 --> 0:03:24.640 to understand is what is it? When in Silicon Valley 0:03:24.639 --> 0:03:26.359 about fifteen years ago, when they were trying to raise 0:03:26.400 --> 0:03:28.680 money for Uber, they would go, Hey, I have this 0:03:28.760 --> 0:03:31.240 new app I'm building. I want to raise one hundred million, 0:03:31.280 --> 0:03:34.120 and they'd say, what is it? Right, I'm a venture 0:03:34.120 --> 0:03:36.800 capital investor of investing in venture cap for probably over 0:03:36.840 --> 0:03:39.120 a dozen years now, that's what we do what is it? 0:03:39.800 --> 0:03:39.920 So? 0:03:40.080 --> 0:03:43.840 First of all, what is bitcoin? Is it a brand 0:03:43.880 --> 0:03:49.080 new technology? Sure, yeah, it's technology. What is it disrupting? So, okay, 0:03:49.280 --> 0:03:51.880 it's an app. Uber is an app. What is it disrupting. 0:03:51.920 --> 0:03:55.440 It's disrupting the taxi industry, the limo industry, the ride 0:03:55.440 --> 0:03:58.040 share industry. And then we look at how big those 0:03:58.080 --> 0:04:00.360 markets are, and then we look at how much we 0:04:00.400 --> 0:04:01.840 think you can pull from those We're going to break 0:04:01.880 --> 0:04:05.400 the math down in a minute. But first, what is it? So? Yes, 0:04:05.440 --> 0:04:07.560 it's a brand new technology, it's an app. What is 0:04:07.560 --> 0:04:09.880 it doing? Well, it's sort of like money, a medium 0:04:09.880 --> 0:04:12.760 of exchange. The white paper says it's peer to peer cash, 0:04:12.800 --> 0:04:15.520 electronic cash, so we exchange it for money and meaning 0:04:15.480 --> 0:04:18.719 of exchange. It's also a store of value, as we 0:04:18.800 --> 0:04:21.919 call an soov. All right now, it is winning the 0:04:21.920 --> 0:04:24.560 war of store value, which eventually could evolve into the 0:04:24.600 --> 0:04:27.159 next stage. I'm going to break that evolutionary path down 0:04:27.200 --> 0:04:29.800 for you so you can see the timeframe. But let's 0:04:29.839 --> 0:04:31.880 just talk about the store value because I want to 0:04:31.920 --> 0:04:35.040 simplify this, and I know it sounds crazy, but I'm 0:04:35.040 --> 0:04:37.160 going to make it sound very conservative so we could 0:04:37.160 --> 0:04:40.479 overshoot it. So let's just talk about the store of 0:04:40.680 --> 0:04:43.200 value right now, all right, so what we can see 0:04:43.720 --> 0:04:46.320 mini headlines that can continue to pull them. Goldman Sachs, 0:04:46.360 --> 0:04:48.760 one of the biggest financial institutions in the United States 0:04:48.800 --> 0:04:52.960 and the world, says bitcoin will not could not should, 0:04:53.279 --> 0:04:58.000 but will compete with gold as store of value. This 0:04:58.040 --> 0:05:00.800 is Goldman Sacks. We know that Larry Fink, the largest 0:05:00.800 --> 0:05:02.720 asset manager in the world from black Rock Now, went 0:05:02.760 --> 0:05:05.680 on TV a month ago saying that bitcoin is a 0:05:05.720 --> 0:05:08.760 flight to safety. Right, so it's a store of value. 0:05:08.920 --> 0:05:11.320 We know this. We can see Kathy Wood, who runs 0:05:11.320 --> 0:05:13.880 one of the biggest tech funds in Wall Street. She 0:05:13.960 --> 0:05:17.479 says that bitcoin describing bitcoin as both. So it's both, 0:05:17.600 --> 0:05:20.400 it's multiple things. It's more things than we'll know in 0:05:20.440 --> 0:05:23.560 the future. Both a store of value and a risk 0:05:23.600 --> 0:05:25.880 off asset, meaning we use it to store wealth, but 0:05:25.920 --> 0:05:28.720 we also use it to when there's times of risk 0:05:28.800 --> 0:05:33.360 or high inflation. Wood emphasize that when compared to gold, 0:05:33.520 --> 0:05:38.560 the upward trajectory hints at the possibility of overtaking gold 0:05:38.720 --> 0:05:42.760 as a more valuable investment in the future. Okay, so 0:05:42.800 --> 0:05:44.880 you can see this from any number of people. It 0:05:45.000 --> 0:05:47.600 is a store of value. It's winning the store of value. 0:05:48.000 --> 0:05:51.120 Bitcoin is like digital gold, all right, but it's better 0:05:51.120 --> 0:05:52.599 than gold. I'm not going to break down all the 0:05:52.600 --> 0:05:54.279 ways in this video. If you want a separate video 0:05:54.440 --> 0:05:56.240 comparing bitcoin to gold, let me know. I can make 0:05:56.240 --> 0:05:58.800 another video on that. But you have to understand that 0:05:58.839 --> 0:06:02.000 it doesn't compete directly with gold, because it's better from 0:06:02.000 --> 0:06:05.720 that standpoint. And again the markets tell us that that's 0:06:05.800 --> 0:06:08.120 not just my opinion. If you're a goldbug, I am too. 0:06:08.160 --> 0:06:09.760 I've been at goldbug since two thousand and eight. I 0:06:09.760 --> 0:06:11.919 own gold, I talk about gold all the time. But 0:06:12.000 --> 0:06:13.800 you still have to understand this. Don't be mad. This 0:06:13.839 --> 0:06:15.440 is what the markets tell us. As a matter of fact, 0:06:15.520 --> 0:06:17.760 we can see here the pace of inflows. Now we 0:06:17.800 --> 0:06:20.200 have these new bitcoin ETFs, so the markets are now voting. 0:06:20.480 --> 0:06:23.960 The pace of money going into the ETFs is remarkable. 0:06:24.000 --> 0:06:27.680 In just fifteen days, In only fifteen days, the first 0:06:27.680 --> 0:06:31.360 fifteen days open, the bitcoin ETFs attracted over twenty five 0:06:31.400 --> 0:06:35.560 billion dollars, comparable to the market cap of the largest 0:06:35.560 --> 0:06:39.440 gold producer, Bear Gold. Within fifteen days, more money went 0:06:39.440 --> 0:06:41.960 into these bitcoin ETFs than the entire market cap of 0:06:41.960 --> 0:06:44.760 the largest gold producer. Think about that we can see 0:06:44.800 --> 0:06:48.479 right here, this unparalleled growth to the second largest assets 0:06:48.560 --> 0:06:52.400 under management AUM among US commodity ETFs, establishing them as 0:06:52.440 --> 0:06:57.240 the new digital gold. So they surpassed silver, and they 0:06:57.279 --> 0:06:59.400 are growing way faster than gold ever did, and they're 0:06:59.400 --> 0:07:01.400 catching up to At the rate they're at, they could 0:07:01.440 --> 0:07:03.360 overtake gold in the next year. All right, So the 0:07:03.400 --> 0:07:06.720 markets are telling us this, it's not just commentators, right, 0:07:06.800 --> 0:07:09.640 But we have to also understand as a store of value, 0:07:09.680 --> 0:07:12.600 it's not competing in an industry, right, So uber was 0:07:12.640 --> 0:07:17.440 competing against taxis, Uber was competing against limousines. Bitcoin as 0:07:17.440 --> 0:07:20.360 a store of value doesn't compete with industries. It's not 0:07:20.400 --> 0:07:22.640 competing with Visa or PayPal. For people to make those 0:07:22.640 --> 0:07:26.160 comparisons as ridiculous. It's a store of value, So it 0:07:26.280 --> 0:07:31.200 competes against other store of value assets. That's what's scoring. 0:07:31.280 --> 0:07:33.720 That's what it's actually competing against. And we can see 0:07:33.720 --> 0:07:36.280 that the market that it's going after, the market it's 0:07:36.320 --> 0:07:42.440 competing in is value itself. Okay, so it's not It 0:07:42.520 --> 0:07:45.640 is a new technology, but it's not Visa, it's not MasterCard, 0:07:45.800 --> 0:07:50.000 it's not Facebook. It's competing against other store value assets 0:07:50.000 --> 0:07:53.840 such as gold, for value itself. All right, hopefully that 0:07:53.840 --> 0:07:57.040 makes sense. Now, we also have to realize that the 0:07:57.040 --> 0:07:59.840 world has changed a lot, and what's happened is as 0:08:00.000 --> 0:08:04.120 the world has rapidly changed money and our technology into 0:08:04.200 --> 0:08:06.600 store of value has not. So we are in the 0:08:06.600 --> 0:08:08.720 digital revolution. I'm sure you know that by now. You're 0:08:08.760 --> 0:08:11.400 watching me over the internet, so of course you're part 0:08:11.440 --> 0:08:14.400 of the digital revolution. What we've seen is that while 0:08:14.640 --> 0:08:22.960 the digital revolution has digitized everything, music, movies, books, videos, 0:08:23.000 --> 0:08:26.960 everything's become digitized, our money hasn't. And actually, this cool image, 0:08:27.000 --> 0:08:30.280 all these images were created by chat GBT. Pretty interesting 0:08:30.520 --> 0:08:33.000 and this shows us how all of these technologies have 0:08:33.040 --> 0:08:36.640 become digitized, books, movies, music, et cetera. And the last 0:08:36.679 --> 0:08:39.760 thing to be digitized that hasn't yet it's happening right 0:08:39.800 --> 0:08:44.920 now is digitizing value, digitizing wealth. That's what we're doing 0:08:45.000 --> 0:08:48.320 right now, and it's a monetary evolution. We have to 0:08:48.400 --> 0:08:51.200 understand that what we use as money today, well gold 0:08:51.280 --> 0:08:54.280 was money for five thousand years, has been an evolutionary 0:08:54.400 --> 0:08:59.079 process and this is the next step, the digitization of value. 0:08:59.120 --> 0:09:03.320 This is where it's compute. That's how big the market is. Okay, now, 0:09:03.559 --> 0:09:05.160 let me just break this down to something that you 0:09:05.200 --> 0:09:08.160 can understand, so we can have something to build off of. Okay, So, 0:09:08.400 --> 0:09:11.120 as I said, gold was money for five thousand years, right, 0:09:11.160 --> 0:09:14.240 So at the end of the day, we don't want money. 0:09:14.280 --> 0:09:16.320 I know it's a shocking statement to make. I know 0:09:16.360 --> 0:09:18.400 you want a lot of money. No, we don't want money. 0:09:18.440 --> 0:09:20.800 What we want is the goods and services that money 0:09:20.800 --> 0:09:23.280 buys us. We want food, we want clothes, we want 0:09:23.280 --> 0:09:24.880 a house, we want to travel, things like that. We 0:09:24.920 --> 0:09:28.200 want the goods and services. Gold or money is what 0:09:28.280 --> 0:09:31.040 we use to get those things. And we can hold 0:09:31.040 --> 0:09:34.360 our value, our wealth, our energy in that money until 0:09:34.400 --> 0:09:36.199 we're ready to deploy it to get those goods and 0:09:36.240 --> 0:09:38.920 service that we want. So if goods and services are 0:09:39.040 --> 0:09:41.640 wealth and money is a way to acquire it, then 0:09:41.679 --> 0:09:43.720 what we do is we take all the goods and 0:09:43.720 --> 0:09:47.599 services of the world, the wealth divided by all the gold. 0:09:47.720 --> 0:09:49.960 That's the price. It's a unit of account. Everything is 0:09:50.000 --> 0:09:52.840 priced in gold or priced in money. So think about this. 0:09:53.200 --> 0:09:56.040 Gold was money. It was the store of value for 0:09:56.080 --> 0:09:59.360 five thousand years. It was the unit of account. Everything 0:09:59.440 --> 0:10:02.920 was priced in Now gold because of technology, the world 0:10:03.000 --> 0:10:05.959 started evolving and we had global trade, taking off globalization. 0:10:06.240 --> 0:10:08.480 But gold's very slow. If I want to pay from 0:10:08.480 --> 0:10:11.280 California somebody in New York with gold, it takes a 0:10:11.280 --> 0:10:13.360 long time to get that gold there. So what we 0:10:13.360 --> 0:10:15.280 did is we put the gold in the banks, and 0:10:15.320 --> 0:10:17.560 the banks then used a ledger to say, hey, you 0:10:17.600 --> 0:10:19.480 know from California. Now the guy in New York, now 0:10:19.559 --> 0:10:22.000 on the ledger shows he has the gold. The golden 0:10:22.040 --> 0:10:23.640 actually move. They just changed the ledger. That was a 0:10:23.640 --> 0:10:26.760 new piece of technology, all right, but that didn't actually 0:10:26.800 --> 0:10:29.520 solve anything. And so what we did is we created 0:10:29.600 --> 0:10:33.040 paper dollars, Fiat money, paper dollars that represented the gold 0:10:33.040 --> 0:10:36.240 in the bank. So we had one US dollar was 0:10:36.320 --> 0:10:39.040 equal to twenty ounces of gold. Let me show you 0:10:39.040 --> 0:10:41.800 the chart. This is the gold price chart for the 0:10:41.920 --> 0:10:44.440 last one hundred years. So what we can see since 0:10:44.640 --> 0:10:49.120 the eighteen hundreds, twenty US dollars equaled one ounce of gold. 0:10:49.640 --> 0:10:52.160 Then in nineteen thirty three, I've talked about this extensively, 0:10:52.320 --> 0:10:54.520 because all the gold went into the bank, the government 0:10:54.640 --> 0:10:56.920 just took it all. They seized it all. They don't 0:10:56.920 --> 0:10:58.840 want to say they seized it. They bought it from 0:10:58.880 --> 0:11:02.040 you forcibly. What they did is they revalued it to 0:11:02.160 --> 0:11:06.280 now be thirty five dollars for one ounce of gold. 0:11:06.520 --> 0:11:08.400 You can see that twenty and then it was thirty 0:11:08.440 --> 0:11:11.559 five this whole time. Now, this red line here is 0:11:11.600 --> 0:11:14.640 where we ended the gold standard and we no longer 0:11:14.800 --> 0:11:17.240 had relation to the price of gold. But the reason 0:11:17.280 --> 0:11:19.720 why I want you to understand this for right now 0:11:20.720 --> 0:11:24.280 is because at this time all the dollars in existence 0:11:24.640 --> 0:11:28.080 were divided by all the gold, and it was twenty 0:11:28.120 --> 0:11:30.920 dollars for every one ounce, and then it was thirty 0:11:30.920 --> 0:11:32.640 five dollars. So they printed way too many of them. 0:11:32.640 --> 0:11:34.200 That's why they had to seize the gold. Then they 0:11:34.200 --> 0:11:37.160 took it was thirty five dollars for every one ounce 0:11:37.200 --> 0:11:41.559 of gold. You're understanding this, But again, in nineteen seventy one, 0:11:41.600 --> 0:11:44.120 we left the gold standard, and you can see by 0:11:44.160 --> 0:11:46.960 this chart right here is where we left. Now, what 0:11:47.000 --> 0:11:48.880 I did is I took a trend line, and you 0:11:48.880 --> 0:11:51.040 can see the trend line we were on. And if 0:11:51.080 --> 0:11:53.960 we hadn't left the gold standard here, we would have 0:11:54.000 --> 0:11:56.760 about this much money in circulation today. This is the 0:11:57.080 --> 0:12:00.440 M two chart. This shows how much dollars are in circulation. Okay, 0:12:01.360 --> 0:12:03.280 so we would have about this much, but of course 0:12:03.320 --> 0:12:05.600 they would have needed to get more gold. But then 0:12:05.679 --> 0:12:08.240 nineteen seventy one we got a new trend line and 0:12:08.280 --> 0:12:10.480 that took us to hear right around here. In the 0:12:10.559 --> 0:12:12.640 year two thousand, we got a new trend line that 0:12:12.720 --> 0:12:15.960 takes us to here. Two thousand and eight, we got 0:12:16.000 --> 0:12:18.280 a new trend line that takes us to here. In 0:12:18.280 --> 0:12:21.080 twenty twenty, we have a new trend line. And look 0:12:21.080 --> 0:12:25.439 at that trend that we're on. Here's the problem. They've 0:12:25.520 --> 0:12:28.760 added more of those paper currencies, but they didn't add 0:12:28.800 --> 0:12:31.360 more gold because of course we're no longer on a 0:12:31.400 --> 0:12:36.120 gold system, which is why you can see this right here. 0:12:36.520 --> 0:12:39.400 All right, But you have to understand this to understand 0:12:39.400 --> 0:12:42.280 where we're going. We had all the dollars in existence 0:12:42.320 --> 0:12:44.880 divided by all the gold, and that's gone. But that's 0:12:44.920 --> 0:12:46.280 the way it works, and we have to go back 0:12:46.280 --> 0:12:48.440 to it. We are in a fifty two or in 0:12:48.480 --> 0:12:52.360 about a fifty two year experiment that's gone horribly wrong. 0:12:52.400 --> 0:12:54.920 I'll show you how it's gone horribly wrong in a minute. Okay, 0:12:54.960 --> 0:12:57.640 So now that you understand that, you hear a lot 0:12:57.679 --> 0:12:59.679 of people talking about maybe going back to the gold 0:12:59.760 --> 0:13:02.080 stand the rise of bricks. Bricks are going to launch 0:13:02.080 --> 0:13:04.120 their own gold back currency. You've heard me talk about 0:13:04.120 --> 0:13:06.959 that extensively. You have Jim Rickards and Peter Schiff talking 0:13:06.960 --> 0:13:08.800 about we're going to go back to gold. And the 0:13:08.880 --> 0:13:11.439 reason why is because gold was money for five thousand years. 0:13:11.720 --> 0:13:14.400 For fifty years, we've tried this little fiat experiment. It's 0:13:14.440 --> 0:13:17.319 failed horribly wrong, and so the only way that governments 0:13:17.320 --> 0:13:19.840 will get trust back into fiat currency is to back 0:13:19.920 --> 0:13:22.120 it with something like gold. Again, you've heard that many times. 0:13:22.480 --> 0:13:24.840 So this is how this would work. Let me break 0:13:24.840 --> 0:13:28.520 it down. In the United States, there's about twenty trillion 0:13:28.559 --> 0:13:31.760 dollars of currency of paper of fiat currency twenty tint 0:13:32.120 --> 0:13:34.480 the US supposedly, I don't know if I believe this 0:13:34.760 --> 0:13:38.000 holds eight thousand tons of gold. So then what you 0:13:38.040 --> 0:13:40.280 would do is you would take the eight thousand tons 0:13:40.320 --> 0:13:43.000 is two hundred and eighty two million ounces, So you 0:13:43.120 --> 0:13:46.240 take the twenty trillion divided by the two hundred and 0:13:46.280 --> 0:13:48.600 eighty two million ounces, and that would give you a 0:13:48.600 --> 0:13:52.439 new gold price of seventy thousand dollars per ounce of gold. 0:13:52.640 --> 0:13:54.560 At the twenty dollars per ounce of gold up until 0:13:54.600 --> 0:13:57.079 ninety thirty three, the thirty five up to nine seventy one. 0:13:57.160 --> 0:13:58.559 That's how it worked. And to go back to a 0:13:58.600 --> 0:14:00.719 gold standard one hundred percent back this would be the 0:14:00.800 --> 0:14:03.439 new math. That's why goldbugs want this to go back 0:14:03.480 --> 0:14:04.920 to a gold standard, and they want to hold gold 0:14:04.960 --> 0:14:07.199 because they think they're two thousand dollars an ounce gold 0:14:07.240 --> 0:14:09.400 will go to seventy thousand ounce. It'd be pretty amazing 0:14:09.400 --> 0:14:11.440 if that happened, although Big one's going to do better. 0:14:11.440 --> 0:14:13.480 I'll break the math down now. We also have to 0:14:13.480 --> 0:14:15.600 think globally, all right, because this is not just the 0:14:15.720 --> 0:14:18.360 US the US dollars, the global observe currency bus of 0:14:18.400 --> 0:14:20.880 the euro dollar going on, so we have to think globally. 0:14:21.040 --> 0:14:23.760 So if we think globally, there's about eighty seven trillion 0:14:23.800 --> 0:14:26.720 dollars globally and about we don't really know because China 0:14:26.760 --> 0:14:29.560 doesn't really report it properly, but approximately one hundred and 0:14:29.600 --> 0:14:32.520 eighty seven thousand tons of gold in the whole world, 0:14:32.960 --> 0:14:34.920 all the gold in the world that's ever been brought 0:14:34.960 --> 0:14:37.760 above ground is still above ground. It's not really a 0:14:37.760 --> 0:14:40.280 consumable good. I think all the gold in the world 0:14:40.360 --> 0:14:42.440 fits in like a football field. It's not even that much. 0:14:42.960 --> 0:14:46.000 One hundred eighty seven thousand tons, which is six billion ounces. 0:14:46.200 --> 0:14:49.520 So we take the eighty seven trillion dollars of currency 0:14:49.840 --> 0:14:52.600 divided by the six billion ounces would give us about 0:14:52.600 --> 0:14:56.400 a thirteen thousand dollars price per goal. Does that make sense? Okay? 0:14:56.520 --> 0:14:59.080 So now that we've gone through that math, you're ready 0:14:59.120 --> 0:15:02.240 to understand the next step in the process. Okay, So 0:15:02.600 --> 0:15:04.920 you remember we've made a couple of cases here. Gold 0:15:05.080 --> 0:15:07.880 was what we used to measure or price things in. 0:15:08.440 --> 0:15:11.320 Wealth is goods and services, not gold. Wealth is the 0:15:11.320 --> 0:15:14.120 goods and services. The gold is what it was priced in, 0:15:14.160 --> 0:15:16.240 and so we had to divide the goods and services 0:15:16.280 --> 0:15:19.800 by the wealth by the gold. So now what other 0:15:19.960 --> 0:15:22.120 global assets are there? How do we measure how much 0:15:22.160 --> 0:15:24.880 goods and services are out there? How much wealth is 0:15:24.920 --> 0:15:26.600 out there? Well, there's a couple of ways we can 0:15:26.640 --> 0:15:30.600 look at this. All of these global assets are well, 0:15:30.640 --> 0:15:32.360 we're looking at the global assets right now for this 0:15:32.840 --> 0:15:35.960 math in store of value assets. There's lots of assets, 0:15:36.160 --> 0:15:39.160 but we don't store our wealth in all types of assets. So, 0:15:39.280 --> 0:15:42.600 just for this exercise, being conservative, I know this sounds crazy, 0:15:42.760 --> 0:15:45.040 we're only looking at what we call store of value assets, 0:15:45.040 --> 0:15:47.080 things that you would put your money into such as 0:15:47.240 --> 0:15:49.880 gold is a store of value asset real estate. Sure, 0:15:49.920 --> 0:15:51.720 I have a house there, but I park my wealth 0:15:51.760 --> 0:15:55.760 in real estate as well, bonds, stocks, things like that. Okay, 0:15:56.000 --> 0:15:58.320 so if we look at that. Here's a chart from 0:15:58.760 --> 0:16:02.920 Jesse Croasis. He did an amazing write up on this. 0:16:03.000 --> 0:16:04.720 We're going to link to it in the description down 0:16:04.760 --> 0:16:06.360 below if you want to read his rite up and 0:16:06.360 --> 0:16:08.880 break down of this. But we have store of value 0:16:08.920 --> 0:16:13.120 assets right here, gold, cars, other collectibles. So rich people 0:16:13.120 --> 0:16:16.000 buy really old collectible cars, things like that, they store 0:16:16.000 --> 0:16:17.800 their wealth in there. One of my buddies down the 0:16:17.840 --> 0:16:20.240 streets got a couple Mustangs that are worth millions of dollars. 0:16:20.280 --> 0:16:24.080 Pretty cool, doesn't drive them fine? Art of course, stock market, right, 0:16:24.120 --> 0:16:26.400 we buy stock to put our wealth in their real estate, 0:16:26.480 --> 0:16:27.960 Like I said, not just your home, but other real 0:16:28.080 --> 0:16:30.560 estate that you invest in, bonds, and of course money. 0:16:30.720 --> 0:16:33.160 If we add those up, we have twelve trillion dollars 0:16:33.240 --> 0:16:36.720 in gold, six trillion in collectibles, eighteen trillion in fine art, 0:16:36.720 --> 0:16:39.800 one hundred and fifteen trillion, and you do the math. 0:16:39.880 --> 0:16:43.520 It totals nine hundred trillion dollars. If we add all 0:16:43.560 --> 0:16:46.720 that up. Now again back to the uber example, uber 0:16:46.800 --> 0:16:50.200 is going to disrupt taxis, limos vans. What percentage do 0:16:50.240 --> 0:16:52.240 we think it can get from each of those markets? 0:16:52.360 --> 0:16:56.600 So conservatively, do we think bitcoin could capture fifty percent 0:16:57.080 --> 0:17:00.000 of the gold market cap? I think so, Golden Sacks, 0:17:00.080 --> 0:17:02.960 this is going to overtake it. So fifty percent. That 0:17:03.000 --> 0:17:06.960 puts bitcoin at six trillion, cars, other collectibles. It's not 0:17:07.000 --> 0:17:08.720 going to take the whole thing. People like cars, people 0:17:08.800 --> 0:17:10.920 like collectibles, people like fine art. But could it take 0:17:10.960 --> 0:17:14.719 five percent? I think that's reasonable, fine art five percent, 0:17:14.840 --> 0:17:18.359 sure stock market fifteen percent, I think reasonable, real estate 0:17:18.400 --> 0:17:23.320 fifteen percent. Okay, bonds thirty percent, money thirty percent. That 0:17:23.359 --> 0:17:27.840 brings us to two hundred trillion dollars just at those levels, 0:17:28.040 --> 0:17:31.840 and this could happen over the next five, six, seven years. 0:17:31.960 --> 0:17:34.160 All right, I'll get more to the timeframe. We'll break 0:17:34.160 --> 0:17:36.680 this map down a little bit more. But that would 0:17:36.720 --> 0:17:39.960 put it one bitcoin to ten million dollars. It's a 0:17:39.960 --> 0:17:43.600 big number, ten million dollars just forgetting these pieces. Now. 0:17:43.600 --> 0:17:45.679 We're not even adding all the other use cases, the 0:17:45.760 --> 0:17:48.480 money exchanging, we're not including all the technologies being built 0:17:48.520 --> 0:17:52.320 on bitcoin. We're just talking about store of value assets only, 0:17:52.800 --> 0:17:54.640 all right, so you can see that math. Now let's 0:17:54.720 --> 0:17:59.400 keep going here. Now, remember there's no such thing as certainties, 0:17:59.440 --> 0:18:04.159 there's only probabilities. So is this a probable outcome? But 0:18:04.240 --> 0:18:07.600 what we do know is pretty much certain, ninety nine 0:18:07.600 --> 0:18:11.480 percent certain that FIAT is dead, FIAT is crashing. FIAT 0:18:11.520 --> 0:18:14.480 was an experiment. We're fifty two years into this experiment, 0:18:14.640 --> 0:18:18.120 five thousand years of using sound money, fifty two years 0:18:18.119 --> 0:18:21.040 of FIAT, and it's dead. It's over. There's pretty much 0:18:21.080 --> 0:18:23.000 no way I can continue from here. Like I said, 0:18:23.160 --> 0:18:25.040 they're going to have to figure out a way to 0:18:25.200 --> 0:18:29.360 bring some trust back into the system. So what options 0:18:29.400 --> 0:18:31.640 do we have. Well, I did a video a couple 0:18:31.720 --> 0:18:33.679 months ago in Amsterdam, or I gave a talk at 0:18:33.680 --> 0:18:35.800 a conference in Amsdam a couple months ago. Let's go 0:18:35.800 --> 0:18:37.480 ahead and just play this clip so you can hear it. 0:18:37.840 --> 0:18:40.959 We can see this system is shifting. If you're paying attention, 0:18:41.440 --> 0:18:45.399 they're buying gold. The problem is that already failed before. 0:18:46.080 --> 0:18:50.240 We live in a information world today. We need money 0:18:50.280 --> 0:18:53.879 to transfer at the speed of our transactions over the internet, 0:18:54.000 --> 0:18:58.080 and gold can't do that. Gold requires trust. Since gold 0:18:58.119 --> 0:19:01.679 can't transfer immediately, are someone to hold a ledger and 0:19:01.720 --> 0:19:04.400 if someone's holding the ledger, we must trust that person. 0:19:04.960 --> 0:19:07.639 But trust is lost. So if that doesn't work, if 0:19:07.680 --> 0:19:10.240 we don't go back to commodities, where do we go. Well, 0:19:10.280 --> 0:19:14.040 the next solution is central bank digital currencies, because that 0:19:14.080 --> 0:19:18.359