1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:05,119 Speaker 1: The shocking math how bitcoin will reach forty three billion dollars. 2 00:00:05,559 --> 00:00:08,000 Speaker 1: We're going to break down the math. Now, in life, 3 00:00:08,080 --> 00:00:10,720 Speaker 1: there are no such things on certainties. There's only probabilities, 4 00:00:10,960 --> 00:00:14,120 Speaker 1: and we bet on those probabilities every single day. That's 5 00:00:14,160 --> 00:00:17,320 Speaker 1: exactly what markets are. And Bitcoin has beaten the odds 6 00:00:17,360 --> 00:00:20,120 Speaker 1: over and over. It's been called dead hundreds of times, 7 00:00:20,239 --> 00:00:23,200 Speaker 1: it's crashed dozens of times, and yet it keeps coming 8 00:00:23,239 --> 00:00:26,920 Speaker 1: back stronger every single time. And now today it's crossing 9 00:00:26,960 --> 00:00:29,760 Speaker 1: what we call the chasm as we see Blackrock and 10 00:00:29,800 --> 00:00:34,200 Speaker 1: Fidelity adding millions of people. We have three US presidential 11 00:00:34,240 --> 00:00:38,360 Speaker 1: candidates openly discussing bitcoin, and so today for those of 12 00:00:38,400 --> 00:00:41,240 Speaker 1: you with an open mind and are willing to understand 13 00:00:41,360 --> 00:00:44,040 Speaker 1: that again, everything in life is a probability, I'm going 14 00:00:44,120 --> 00:00:46,200 Speaker 1: to break down the math. I'm going to break down 15 00:00:46,200 --> 00:00:49,519 Speaker 1: the future potential of Bitcoin like it's never been done before. 16 00:00:49,640 --> 00:00:51,519 Speaker 1: I'm going to show you the odds. I'm going to 17 00:00:51,520 --> 00:00:53,080 Speaker 1: show you the path it will take. We're going to 18 00:00:53,080 --> 00:00:56,240 Speaker 1: look at the different price points along the way, the timeframes, 19 00:00:56,400 --> 00:00:58,920 Speaker 1: and of course how to play this. If you're a 20 00:00:59,000 --> 00:01:03,000 Speaker 1: huge bitcoin skeptic or you're a diehard bitcoin believer either way, 21 00:01:03,240 --> 00:01:06,160 Speaker 1: this is for you, So let's go. All right, welcome back. 22 00:01:06,160 --> 00:01:08,120 Speaker 1: If you're new to the channel, my name is Mark Moss. 23 00:01:08,160 --> 00:01:10,399 Speaker 1: I make these videos, of course, to change the way 24 00:01:10,480 --> 00:01:13,080 Speaker 1: you think about money, because almost everything you've learned is 25 00:01:13,120 --> 00:01:16,280 Speaker 1: wrong and it's changing. We're talking about bitcoin, we're talking 26 00:01:16,280 --> 00:01:18,400 Speaker 1: about a new form of money, and most people don't 27 00:01:18,440 --> 00:01:20,800 Speaker 1: understand it because as my good friend Jeff Booth, who 28 00:01:20,880 --> 00:01:23,240 Speaker 1: will hear about later, he likes to say that it's 29 00:01:23,319 --> 00:01:26,039 Speaker 1: very hard to see a new system, to understand a 30 00:01:26,040 --> 00:01:29,120 Speaker 1: new system when you're stuck in an existing system. So look, 31 00:01:29,240 --> 00:01:32,360 Speaker 1: I get it. It's difficult. So have an open mind. 32 00:01:32,440 --> 00:01:34,559 Speaker 1: Now if you want the short answer, where is it going? 33 00:01:34,880 --> 00:01:36,920 Speaker 1: I'm going to break the down the math to how 34 00:01:36,959 --> 00:01:40,600 Speaker 1: we get to forty three billion and for some of 35 00:01:40,680 --> 00:01:42,319 Speaker 1: us in our lifetime. All right, I'm going to break 36 00:01:42,319 --> 00:01:44,039 Speaker 1: down the math, the path, all that. But first I 37 00:01:44,040 --> 00:01:46,200 Speaker 1: want to tell you a story. Last night I was 38 00:01:46,240 --> 00:01:48,240 Speaker 1: watching a brand new TV show. I think it was 39 00:01:48,280 --> 00:01:50,960 Speaker 1: called The Tracker. It's not super good. It was okay, 40 00:01:50,960 --> 00:01:52,880 Speaker 1: it was the very first episode that I saw. But 41 00:01:52,920 --> 00:01:55,080 Speaker 1: there's this guy and he goes and finds people like 42 00:01:55,120 --> 00:01:57,680 Speaker 1: people have rewards and bounties, things like that, but he 43 00:01:57,720 --> 00:02:00,440 Speaker 1: would throughout the show he kept saying, if we go now, 44 00:02:00,480 --> 00:02:02,360 Speaker 1: we have a ninety five percent chance, but if we 45 00:02:02,400 --> 00:02:04,440 Speaker 1: wait an hour, we only have a five percent chance. 46 00:02:04,680 --> 00:02:06,120 Speaker 1: If I hurry up and get you out now, I 47 00:02:06,160 --> 00:02:08,040 Speaker 1: think we have a fifty percent chance. But if we wait, 48 00:02:08,160 --> 00:02:10,600 Speaker 1: and he kept talking about probabilities all the time, we 49 00:02:10,639 --> 00:02:12,760 Speaker 1: have a probability of this. Now if we wait, my 50 00:02:12,800 --> 00:02:15,520 Speaker 1: probability drops to this. And probably I don't know, three, 51 00:02:15,560 --> 00:02:17,400 Speaker 1: four or five times throughout the show he would do that, 52 00:02:17,720 --> 00:02:19,920 Speaker 1: And that's how life is. So the first thing I 53 00:02:19,919 --> 00:02:21,760 Speaker 1: want to let you know is that all right. So 54 00:02:21,880 --> 00:02:23,359 Speaker 1: the problem that I see too many people making is 55 00:02:23,400 --> 00:02:25,880 Speaker 1: they think very linear. Everything's black or white, it's this 56 00:02:26,040 --> 00:02:28,440 Speaker 1: or that, there's no way this can happen, or there's 57 00:02:28,440 --> 00:02:31,000 Speaker 1: no way this can happen. And that's not how life works. Okay, 58 00:02:31,320 --> 00:02:35,440 Speaker 1: there's a world of possibilities. Everything is possible, and then 59 00:02:35,440 --> 00:02:39,360 Speaker 1: there's probabilities or percentages that we think that this can happen. 60 00:02:39,440 --> 00:02:42,480 Speaker 1: So you may be the biggest Bitcoin skeptic in the world, 61 00:02:42,800 --> 00:02:46,440 Speaker 1: but still ask yourself this question, are you one hundred 62 00:02:46,520 --> 00:02:50,280 Speaker 1: percent sure, one hundred percent guaranteed there's no way bitcoin 63 00:02:50,320 --> 00:02:52,080 Speaker 1: will ever succeed from here, And of course the answer 64 00:02:52,120 --> 00:02:53,840 Speaker 1: is no, you can't say that. Now you might say 65 00:02:53,880 --> 00:02:56,520 Speaker 1: there's a ninety percent chance, Okay, great, then that ten 66 00:02:56,560 --> 00:02:58,239 Speaker 1: percent you might want to listen, all right, does that 67 00:02:58,320 --> 00:03:00,800 Speaker 1: makes sense? So think about things in terms of and 68 00:03:00,960 --> 00:03:03,080 Speaker 1: let me break this down for you in what's going 69 00:03:03,120 --> 00:03:05,320 Speaker 1: to be a masterclass. So the short answer is, like 70 00:03:05,320 --> 00:03:07,480 Speaker 1: I said, forty three billion. If you just want to 71 00:03:07,520 --> 00:03:08,799 Speaker 1: shut it off right now, you could have just read 72 00:03:08,840 --> 00:03:10,639 Speaker 1: the title. But let me break down the mas for you. 73 00:03:10,680 --> 00:03:12,720 Speaker 1: But more for than they said, how does it get there? 74 00:03:13,120 --> 00:03:15,640 Speaker 1: And when? When does it happen? I bet those are 75 00:03:15,680 --> 00:03:17,720 Speaker 1: the questions that you want to know, and that's what 76 00:03:17,760 --> 00:03:19,919 Speaker 1: I'm going to break down. Okay, So if we start 77 00:03:19,960 --> 00:03:21,640 Speaker 1: to break this down, the very first thing we have 78 00:03:21,680 --> 00:03:24,640 Speaker 1: to understand is what is it? When in Silicon Valley 79 00:03:24,639 --> 00:03:26,359 Speaker 1: about fifteen years ago, when they were trying to raise 80 00:03:26,400 --> 00:03:28,680 Speaker 1: money for Uber, they would go, Hey, I have this 81 00:03:28,760 --> 00:03:31,240 Speaker 1: new app I'm building. I want to raise one hundred million, 82 00:03:31,280 --> 00:03:34,120 Speaker 1: and they'd say, what is it? Right, I'm a venture 83 00:03:34,120 --> 00:03:36,800 Speaker 1: capital investor of investing in venture cap for probably over 84 00:03:36,840 --> 00:03:39,120 Speaker 1: a dozen years now, that's what we do what is it? 85 00:03:39,800 --> 00:03:39,920 Speaker 2: So? 86 00:03:40,080 --> 00:03:43,840 Speaker 1: First of all, what is bitcoin? Is it a brand 87 00:03:43,880 --> 00:03:49,080 Speaker 1: new technology? Sure, yeah, it's technology. What is it disrupting? So, okay, 88 00:03:49,280 --> 00:03:51,880 Speaker 1: it's an app. Uber is an app. What is it disrupting. 89 00:03:51,920 --> 00:03:55,440 Speaker 1: It's disrupting the taxi industry, the limo industry, the ride 90 00:03:55,440 --> 00:03:58,040 Speaker 1: share industry. And then we look at how big those 91 00:03:58,080 --> 00:04:00,360 Speaker 1: markets are, and then we look at how much we 92 00:04:00,400 --> 00:04:01,840 Speaker 1: think you can pull from those We're going to break 93 00:04:01,880 --> 00:04:05,400 Speaker 1: the math down in a minute. But first, what is it? So? Yes, 94 00:04:05,440 --> 00:04:07,560 Speaker 1: it's a brand new technology, it's an app. What is 95 00:04:07,560 --> 00:04:09,880 Speaker 1: it doing? Well, it's sort of like money, a medium 96 00:04:09,880 --> 00:04:12,760 Speaker 1: of exchange. The white paper says it's peer to peer cash, 97 00:04:12,800 --> 00:04:15,520 Speaker 1: electronic cash, so we exchange it for money and meaning 98 00:04:15,480 --> 00:04:18,719 Speaker 1: of exchange. It's also a store of value, as we 99 00:04:18,800 --> 00:04:21,919 Speaker 1: call an soov. All right now, it is winning the 100 00:04:21,920 --> 00:04:24,560 Speaker 1: war of store value, which eventually could evolve into the 101 00:04:24,600 --> 00:04:27,159 Speaker 1: next stage. I'm going to break that evolutionary path down 102 00:04:27,200 --> 00:04:29,800 Speaker 1: for you so you can see the timeframe. But let's 103 00:04:29,839 --> 00:04:31,880 Speaker 1: just talk about the store value because I want to 104 00:04:31,920 --> 00:04:35,040 Speaker 1: simplify this, and I know it sounds crazy, but I'm 105 00:04:35,040 --> 00:04:37,160 Speaker 1: going to make it sound very conservative so we could 106 00:04:37,160 --> 00:04:40,479 Speaker 1: overshoot it. So let's just talk about the store of 107 00:04:40,680 --> 00:04:43,200 Speaker 1: value right now, all right, so what we can see 108 00:04:43,720 --> 00:04:46,320 Speaker 1: mini headlines that can continue to pull them. Goldman Sachs, 109 00:04:46,360 --> 00:04:48,760 Speaker 1: one of the biggest financial institutions in the United States 110 00:04:48,800 --> 00:04:52,960 Speaker 1: and the world, says bitcoin will not could not should, 111 00:04:53,279 --> 00:04:58,000 Speaker 1: but will compete with gold as store of value. This 112 00:04:58,040 --> 00:05:00,800 Speaker 1: is Goldman Sacks. We know that Larry Fink, the largest 113 00:05:00,800 --> 00:05:02,720 Speaker 1: asset manager in the world from black Rock Now, went 114 00:05:02,760 --> 00:05:05,680 Speaker 1: on TV a month ago saying that bitcoin is a 115 00:05:05,720 --> 00:05:08,760 Speaker 1: flight to safety. Right, so it's a store of value. 116 00:05:08,920 --> 00:05:11,320 Speaker 1: We know this. We can see Kathy Wood, who runs 117 00:05:11,320 --> 00:05:13,880 Speaker 1: one of the biggest tech funds in Wall Street. She 118 00:05:13,960 --> 00:05:17,479 Speaker 1: says that bitcoin describing bitcoin as both. So it's both, 119 00:05:17,600 --> 00:05:20,400 Speaker 1: it's multiple things. It's more things than we'll know in 120 00:05:20,440 --> 00:05:23,560 Speaker 1: the future. Both a store of value and a risk 121 00:05:23,600 --> 00:05:25,880 Speaker 1: off asset, meaning we use it to store wealth, but 122 00:05:25,920 --> 00:05:28,720 Speaker 1: we also use it to when there's times of risk 123 00:05:28,800 --> 00:05:33,360 Speaker 1: or high inflation. Wood emphasize that when compared to gold, 124 00:05:33,520 --> 00:05:38,560 Speaker 1: the upward trajectory hints at the possibility of overtaking gold 125 00:05:38,720 --> 00:05:42,760 Speaker 1: as a more valuable investment in the future. Okay, so 126 00:05:42,800 --> 00:05:44,880 Speaker 1: you can see this from any number of people. It 127 00:05:45,000 --> 00:05:47,600 Speaker 1: is a store of value. It's winning the store of value. 128 00:05:48,000 --> 00:05:51,120 Speaker 1: Bitcoin is like digital gold, all right, but it's better 129 00:05:51,120 --> 00:05:52,599 Speaker 1: than gold. I'm not going to break down all the 130 00:05:52,600 --> 00:05:54,279 Speaker 1: ways in this video. If you want a separate video 131 00:05:54,440 --> 00:05:56,240 Speaker 1: comparing bitcoin to gold, let me know. I can make 132 00:05:56,240 --> 00:05:58,800 Speaker 1: another video on that. But you have to understand that 133 00:05:58,839 --> 00:06:02,000 Speaker 1: it doesn't compete directly with gold, because it's better from 134 00:06:02,000 --> 00:06:05,720 Speaker 1: that standpoint. And again the markets tell us that that's 135 00:06:05,800 --> 00:06:08,120 Speaker 1: not just my opinion. If you're a goldbug, I am too. 136 00:06:08,160 --> 00:06:09,760 Speaker 1: I've been at goldbug since two thousand and eight. I 137 00:06:09,760 --> 00:06:11,919 Speaker 1: own gold, I talk about gold all the time. But 138 00:06:12,000 --> 00:06:13,800 Speaker 1: you still have to understand this. Don't be mad. This 139 00:06:13,839 --> 00:06:15,440 Speaker 1: is what the markets tell us. As a matter of fact, 140 00:06:15,520 --> 00:06:17,760 Speaker 1: we can see here the pace of inflows. Now we 141 00:06:17,800 --> 00:06:20,200 Speaker 1: have these new bitcoin ETFs, so the markets are now voting. 142 00:06:20,480 --> 00:06:23,960 Speaker 1: The pace of money going into the ETFs is remarkable. 143 00:06:24,000 --> 00:06:27,680 Speaker 1: In just fifteen days, In only fifteen days, the first 144 00:06:27,680 --> 00:06:31,360 Speaker 1: fifteen days open, the bitcoin ETFs attracted over twenty five 145 00:06:31,400 --> 00:06:35,560 Speaker 1: billion dollars, comparable to the market cap of the largest 146 00:06:35,560 --> 00:06:39,440 Speaker 1: gold producer, Bear Gold. Within fifteen days, more money went 147 00:06:39,440 --> 00:06:41,960 Speaker 1: into these bitcoin ETFs than the entire market cap of 148 00:06:41,960 --> 00:06:44,760 Speaker 1: the largest gold producer. Think about that we can see 149 00:06:44,800 --> 00:06:48,479 Speaker 1: right here, this unparalleled growth to the second largest assets 150 00:06:48,560 --> 00:06:52,400 Speaker 1: under management AUM among US commodity ETFs, establishing them as 151 00:06:52,440 --> 00:06:57,240 Speaker 1: the new digital gold. So they surpassed silver, and they 152 00:06:57,279 --> 00:06:59,400 Speaker 1: are growing way faster than gold ever did, and they're 153 00:06:59,400 --> 00:07:01,400 Speaker 1: catching up to At the rate they're at, they could 154 00:07:01,440 --> 00:07:03,360 Speaker 1: overtake gold in the next year. All right, So the 155 00:07:03,400 --> 00:07:06,720 Speaker 1: markets are telling us this, it's not just commentators, right, 156 00:07:06,800 --> 00:07:09,640 Speaker 1: But we have to also understand as a store of value, 157 00:07:09,680 --> 00:07:12,600 Speaker 1: it's not competing in an industry, right, So uber was 158 00:07:12,640 --> 00:07:17,440 Speaker 1: competing against taxis, Uber was competing against limousines. Bitcoin as 159 00:07:17,440 --> 00:07:20,360 Speaker 1: a store of value doesn't compete with industries. It's not 160 00:07:20,400 --> 00:07:22,640 Speaker 1: competing with Visa or PayPal. For people to make those 161 00:07:22,640 --> 00:07:26,160 Speaker 1: comparisons as ridiculous. It's a store of value, So it 162 00:07:26,280 --> 00:07:31,200 Speaker 1: competes against other store of value assets. That's what's scoring. 163 00:07:31,280 --> 00:07:33,720 Speaker 1: That's what it's actually competing against. And we can see 164 00:07:33,720 --> 00:07:36,280 Speaker 1: that the market that it's going after, the market it's 165 00:07:36,320 --> 00:07:42,440 Speaker 1: competing in is value itself. Okay, so it's not It 166 00:07:42,520 --> 00:07:45,640 Speaker 1: is a new technology, but it's not Visa, it's not MasterCard, 167 00:07:45,800 --> 00:07:50,000 Speaker 1: it's not Facebook. It's competing against other store value assets 168 00:07:50,000 --> 00:07:53,840 Speaker 1: such as gold, for value itself. All right, hopefully that 169 00:07:53,840 --> 00:07:57,040 Speaker 1: makes sense. Now, we also have to realize that the 170 00:07:57,040 --> 00:07:59,840 Speaker 1: world has changed a lot, and what's happened is as 171 00:08:00,000 --> 00:08:04,120 Speaker 1: the world has rapidly changed money and our technology into 172 00:08:04,200 --> 00:08:06,600 Speaker 1: store of value has not. So we are in the 173 00:08:06,600 --> 00:08:08,720 Speaker 1: digital revolution. I'm sure you know that by now. You're 174 00:08:08,760 --> 00:08:11,400 Speaker 1: watching me over the internet, so of course you're part 175 00:08:11,440 --> 00:08:14,400 Speaker 1: of the digital revolution. What we've seen is that while 176 00:08:14,640 --> 00:08:22,960 Speaker 1: the digital revolution has digitized everything, music, movies, books, videos, 177 00:08:23,000 --> 00:08:26,960 Speaker 1: everything's become digitized, our money hasn't. And actually, this cool image, 178 00:08:27,000 --> 00:08:30,280 Speaker 1: all these images were created by chat GBT. Pretty interesting 179 00:08:30,520 --> 00:08:33,000 Speaker 1: and this shows us how all of these technologies have 180 00:08:33,040 --> 00:08:36,640 Speaker 1: become digitized, books, movies, music, et cetera. And the last 181 00:08:36,679 --> 00:08:39,760 Speaker 1: thing to be digitized that hasn't yet it's happening right 182 00:08:39,800 --> 00:08:44,920 Speaker 1: now is digitizing value, digitizing wealth. That's what we're doing 183 00:08:45,000 --> 00:08:48,320 Speaker 1: right now, and it's a monetary evolution. We have to 184 00:08:48,400 --> 00:08:51,200 Speaker 1: understand that what we use as money today, well gold 185 00:08:51,280 --> 00:08:54,280 Speaker 1: was money for five thousand years, has been an evolutionary 186 00:08:54,400 --> 00:08:59,079 Speaker 1: process and this is the next step, the digitization of value. 187 00:08:59,120 --> 00:09:03,320 Speaker 1: This is where it's compute. That's how big the market is. Okay, now, 188 00:09:03,559 --> 00:09:05,160 Speaker 1: let me just break this down to something that you 189 00:09:05,200 --> 00:09:08,160 Speaker 1: can understand, so we can have something to build off of. Okay, So, 190 00:09:08,400 --> 00:09:11,120 Speaker 1: as I said, gold was money for five thousand years, right, 191 00:09:11,160 --> 00:09:14,240 Speaker 1: So at the end of the day, we don't want money. 192 00:09:14,280 --> 00:09:16,320 Speaker 1: I know it's a shocking statement to make. I know 193 00:09:16,360 --> 00:09:18,400 Speaker 1: you want a lot of money. No, we don't want money. 194 00:09:18,440 --> 00:09:20,800 Speaker 1: What we want is the goods and services that money 195 00:09:20,800 --> 00:09:23,280 Speaker 1: buys us. We want food, we want clothes, we want 196 00:09:23,280 --> 00:09:24,880 Speaker 1: a house, we want to travel, things like that. We 197 00:09:24,920 --> 00:09:28,200 Speaker 1: want the goods and services. Gold or money is what 198 00:09:28,280 --> 00:09:31,040 Speaker 1: we use to get those things. And we can hold 199 00:09:31,040 --> 00:09:34,360 Speaker 1: our value, our wealth, our energy in that money until 200 00:09:34,400 --> 00:09:36,199 Speaker 1: we're ready to deploy it to get those goods and 201 00:09:36,240 --> 00:09:38,920 Speaker 1: service that we want. So if goods and services are 202 00:09:39,040 --> 00:09:41,640 Speaker 1: wealth and money is a way to acquire it, then 203 00:09:41,679 --> 00:09:43,720 Speaker 1: what we do is we take all the goods and 204 00:09:43,720 --> 00:09:47,599 Speaker 1: services of the world, the wealth divided by all the gold. 205 00:09:47,720 --> 00:09:49,960 Speaker 1: That's the price. It's a unit of account. Everything is 206 00:09:50,000 --> 00:09:52,840 Speaker 1: priced in gold or priced in money. So think about this. 207 00:09:53,200 --> 00:09:56,040 Speaker 1: Gold was money. It was the store of value for 208 00:09:56,080 --> 00:09:59,360 Speaker 1: five thousand years. It was the unit of account. Everything 209 00:09:59,440 --> 00:10:02,920 Speaker 1: was priced in Now gold because of technology, the world 210 00:10:03,000 --> 00:10:05,959 Speaker 1: started evolving and we had global trade, taking off globalization. 211 00:10:06,240 --> 00:10:08,480 Speaker 1: But gold's very slow. If I want to pay from 212 00:10:08,480 --> 00:10:11,280 Speaker 1: California somebody in New York with gold, it takes a 213 00:10:11,280 --> 00:10:13,360 Speaker 1: long time to get that gold there. So what we 214 00:10:13,360 --> 00:10:15,280 Speaker 1: did is we put the gold in the banks, and 215 00:10:15,320 --> 00:10:17,560 Speaker 1: the banks then used a ledger to say, hey, you 216 00:10:17,600 --> 00:10:19,480 Speaker 1: know from California. Now the guy in New York, now 217 00:10:19,559 --> 00:10:22,000 Speaker 1: on the ledger shows he has the gold. The golden 218 00:10:22,040 --> 00:10:23,640 Speaker 1: actually move. They just changed the ledger. That was a 219 00:10:23,640 --> 00:10:26,760 Speaker 1: new piece of technology, all right, but that didn't actually 220 00:10:26,800 --> 00:10:29,520 Speaker 1: solve anything. And so what we did is we created 221 00:10:29,600 --> 00:10:33,040 Speaker 1: paper dollars, Fiat money, paper dollars that represented the gold 222 00:10:33,040 --> 00:10:36,240 Speaker 1: in the bank. So we had one US dollar was 223 00:10:36,320 --> 00:10:39,040 Speaker 1: equal to twenty ounces of gold. Let me show you 224 00:10:39,040 --> 00:10:41,800 Speaker 1: the chart. This is the gold price chart for the 225 00:10:41,920 --> 00:10:44,440 Speaker 1: last one hundred years. So what we can see since 226 00:10:44,640 --> 00:10:49,120 Speaker 1: the eighteen hundreds, twenty US dollars equaled one ounce of gold. 227 00:10:49,640 --> 00:10:52,160 Speaker 1: Then in nineteen thirty three, I've talked about this extensively, 228 00:10:52,320 --> 00:10:54,520 Speaker 1: because all the gold went into the bank, the government 229 00:10:54,640 --> 00:10:56,920 Speaker 1: just took it all. They seized it all. They don't 230 00:10:56,920 --> 00:10:58,840 Speaker 1: want to say they seized it. They bought it from 231 00:10:58,880 --> 00:11:02,040 Speaker 1: you forcibly. What they did is they revalued it to 232 00:11:02,160 --> 00:11:06,280 Speaker 1: now be thirty five dollars for one ounce of gold. 233 00:11:06,520 --> 00:11:08,400 Speaker 1: You can see that twenty and then it was thirty 234 00:11:08,440 --> 00:11:11,559 Speaker 1: five this whole time. Now, this red line here is 235 00:11:11,600 --> 00:11:14,640 Speaker 1: where we ended the gold standard and we no longer 236 00:11:14,800 --> 00:11:17,240 Speaker 1: had relation to the price of gold. But the reason 237 00:11:17,280 --> 00:11:19,720 Speaker 1: why I want you to understand this for right now 238 00:11:20,720 --> 00:11:24,280 Speaker 1: is because at this time all the dollars in existence 239 00:11:24,640 --> 00:11:28,080 Speaker 1: were divided by all the gold, and it was twenty 240 00:11:28,120 --> 00:11:30,920 Speaker 1: dollars for every one ounce, and then it was thirty 241 00:11:30,920 --> 00:11:32,640 Speaker 1: five dollars. So they printed way too many of them. 242 00:11:32,640 --> 00:11:34,200 Speaker 1: That's why they had to seize the gold. Then they 243 00:11:34,200 --> 00:11:37,160 Speaker 1: took it was thirty five dollars for every one ounce 244 00:11:37,200 --> 00:11:41,559 Speaker 1: of gold. You're understanding this, But again, in nineteen seventy one, 245 00:11:41,600 --> 00:11:44,120 Speaker 1: we left the gold standard, and you can see by 246 00:11:44,160 --> 00:11:46,960 Speaker 1: this chart right here is where we left. Now, what 247 00:11:47,000 --> 00:11:48,880 Speaker 1: I did is I took a trend line, and you 248 00:11:48,880 --> 00:11:51,040 Speaker 1: can see the trend line we were on. And if 249 00:11:51,080 --> 00:11:53,960 Speaker 1: we hadn't left the gold standard here, we would have 250 00:11:54,000 --> 00:11:56,760 Speaker 1: about this much money in circulation today. This is the 251 00:11:57,080 --> 00:12:00,440 Speaker 1: M two chart. This shows how much dollars are in circulation. Okay, 252 00:12:01,360 --> 00:12:03,280 Speaker 1: so we would have about this much, but of course 253 00:12:03,320 --> 00:12:05,600 Speaker 1: they would have needed to get more gold. But then 254 00:12:05,679 --> 00:12:08,240 Speaker 1: nineteen seventy one we got a new trend line and 255 00:12:08,280 --> 00:12:10,480 Speaker 1: that took us to hear right around here. In the 256 00:12:10,559 --> 00:12:12,640 Speaker 1: year two thousand, we got a new trend line that 257 00:12:12,720 --> 00:12:15,960 Speaker 1: takes us to here. Two thousand and eight, we got 258 00:12:16,000 --> 00:12:18,280 Speaker 1: a new trend line that takes us to here. In 259 00:12:18,280 --> 00:12:21,080 Speaker 1: twenty twenty, we have a new trend line. And look 260 00:12:21,080 --> 00:12:25,439 Speaker 1: at that trend that we're on. Here's the problem. They've 261 00:12:25,520 --> 00:12:28,760 Speaker 1: added more of those paper currencies, but they didn't add 262 00:12:28,800 --> 00:12:31,360 Speaker 1: more gold because of course we're no longer on a 263 00:12:31,400 --> 00:12:36,120 Speaker 1: gold system, which is why you can see this right here. 264 00:12:36,520 --> 00:12:39,400 Speaker 1: All right, But you have to understand this to understand 265 00:12:39,400 --> 00:12:42,280 Speaker 1: where we're going. We had all the dollars in existence 266 00:12:42,320 --> 00:12:44,880 Speaker 1: divided by all the gold, and that's gone. But that's 267 00:12:44,920 --> 00:12:46,280 Speaker 1: the way it works, and we have to go back 268 00:12:46,280 --> 00:12:48,440 Speaker 1: to it. We are in a fifty two or in 269 00:12:48,480 --> 00:12:52,360 Speaker 1: about a fifty two year experiment that's gone horribly wrong. 270 00:12:52,400 --> 00:12:54,920 Speaker 1: I'll show you how it's gone horribly wrong in a minute. Okay, 271 00:12:54,960 --> 00:12:57,640 Speaker 1: So now that you understand that, you hear a lot 272 00:12:57,679 --> 00:12:59,679 Speaker 1: of people talking about maybe going back to the gold 273 00:12:59,760 --> 00:13:02,080 Speaker 1: stand the rise of bricks. Bricks are going to launch 274 00:13:02,080 --> 00:13:04,120 Speaker 1: their own gold back currency. You've heard me talk about 275 00:13:04,120 --> 00:13:06,959 Speaker 1: that extensively. You have Jim Rickards and Peter Schiff talking 276 00:13:06,960 --> 00:13:08,800 Speaker 1: about we're going to go back to gold. And the 277 00:13:08,880 --> 00:13:11,439 Speaker 1: reason why is because gold was money for five thousand years. 278 00:13:11,720 --> 00:13:14,400 Speaker 1: For fifty years, we've tried this little fiat experiment. It's 279 00:13:14,440 --> 00:13:17,319 Speaker 1: failed horribly wrong, and so the only way that governments 280 00:13:17,320 --> 00:13:19,840 Speaker 1: will get trust back into fiat currency is to back 281 00:13:19,920 --> 00:13:22,120 Speaker 1: it with something like gold. Again, you've heard that many times. 282 00:13:22,480 --> 00:13:24,840 Speaker 1: So this is how this would work. Let me break 283 00:13:24,840 --> 00:13:28,520 Speaker 1: it down. In the United States, there's about twenty trillion 284 00:13:28,559 --> 00:13:31,760 Speaker 1: dollars of currency of paper of fiat currency twenty tint 285 00:13:32,120 --> 00:13:34,480 Speaker 1: the US supposedly, I don't know if I believe this 286 00:13:34,760 --> 00:13:38,000 Speaker 1: holds eight thousand tons of gold. So then what you 287 00:13:38,040 --> 00:13:40,280 Speaker 1: would do is you would take the eight thousand tons 288 00:13:40,320 --> 00:13:43,000 Speaker 1: is two hundred and eighty two million ounces, So you 289 00:13:43,120 --> 00:13:46,240 Speaker 1: take the twenty trillion divided by the two hundred and 290 00:13:46,280 --> 00:13:48,600 Speaker 1: eighty two million ounces, and that would give you a 291 00:13:48,600 --> 00:13:52,439 Speaker 1: new gold price of seventy thousand dollars per ounce of gold. 292 00:13:52,640 --> 00:13:54,560 Speaker 1: At the twenty dollars per ounce of gold up until 293 00:13:54,600 --> 00:13:57,079 Speaker 1: ninety thirty three, the thirty five up to nine seventy one. 294 00:13:57,160 --> 00:13:58,559 Speaker 1: That's how it worked. And to go back to a 295 00:13:58,600 --> 00:14:00,719 Speaker 1: gold standard one hundred percent back this would be the 296 00:14:00,800 --> 00:14:03,439 Speaker 1: new math. That's why goldbugs want this to go back 297 00:14:03,480 --> 00:14:04,920 Speaker 1: to a gold standard, and they want to hold gold 298 00:14:04,960 --> 00:14:07,199 Speaker 1: because they think they're two thousand dollars an ounce gold 299 00:14:07,240 --> 00:14:09,400 Speaker 1: will go to seventy thousand ounce. It'd be pretty amazing 300 00:14:09,400 --> 00:14:11,440 Speaker 1: if that happened, although Big one's going to do better. 301 00:14:11,440 --> 00:14:13,480 Speaker 1: I'll break the math down now. We also have to 302 00:14:13,480 --> 00:14:15,600 Speaker 1: think globally, all right, because this is not just the 303 00:14:15,720 --> 00:14:18,360 Speaker 1: US the US dollars, the global observe currency bus of 304 00:14:18,400 --> 00:14:20,880 Speaker 1: the euro dollar going on, so we have to think globally. 305 00:14:21,040 --> 00:14:23,760 Speaker 1: So if we think globally, there's about eighty seven trillion 306 00:14:23,800 --> 00:14:26,720 Speaker 1: dollars globally and about we don't really know because China 307 00:14:26,760 --> 00:14:29,560 Speaker 1: doesn't really report it properly, but approximately one hundred and 308 00:14:29,600 --> 00:14:32,520 Speaker 1: eighty seven thousand tons of gold in the whole world, 309 00:14:32,960 --> 00:14:34,920 Speaker 1: all the gold in the world that's ever been brought 310 00:14:34,960 --> 00:14:37,760 Speaker 1: above ground is still above ground. It's not really a 311 00:14:37,760 --> 00:14:40,280 Speaker 1: consumable good. I think all the gold in the world 312 00:14:40,360 --> 00:14:42,440 Speaker 1: fits in like a football field. It's not even that much. 313 00:14:42,960 --> 00:14:46,000 Speaker 1: One hundred eighty seven thousand tons, which is six billion ounces. 314 00:14:46,200 --> 00:14:49,520 Speaker 1: So we take the eighty seven trillion dollars of currency 315 00:14:49,840 --> 00:14:52,600 Speaker 1: divided by the six billion ounces would give us about 316 00:14:52,600 --> 00:14:56,400 Speaker 1: a thirteen thousand dollars price per goal. Does that make sense? Okay? 317 00:14:56,520 --> 00:14:59,080 Speaker 1: So now that we've gone through that math, you're ready 318 00:14:59,120 --> 00:15:02,240 Speaker 1: to understand the next step in the process. Okay, So 319 00:15:02,600 --> 00:15:04,920 Speaker 1: you remember we've made a couple of cases here. Gold 320 00:15:05,080 --> 00:15:07,880 Speaker 1: was what we used to measure or price things in. 321 00:15:08,440 --> 00:15:11,320 Speaker 1: Wealth is goods and services, not gold. Wealth is the 322 00:15:11,320 --> 00:15:14,120 Speaker 1: goods and services. The gold is what it was priced in, 323 00:15:14,160 --> 00:15:16,240 Speaker 1: and so we had to divide the goods and services 324 00:15:16,280 --> 00:15:19,800 Speaker 1: by the wealth by the gold. So now what other 325 00:15:19,960 --> 00:15:22,120 Speaker 1: global assets are there? How do we measure how much 326 00:15:22,160 --> 00:15:24,880 Speaker 1: goods and services are out there? How much wealth is 327 00:15:24,920 --> 00:15:26,600 Speaker 1: out there? Well, there's a couple of ways we can 328 00:15:26,640 --> 00:15:30,600 Speaker 1: look at this. All of these global assets are well, 329 00:15:30,640 --> 00:15:32,360 Speaker 1: we're looking at the global assets right now for this 330 00:15:32,840 --> 00:15:35,960 Speaker 1: math in store of value assets. There's lots of assets, 331 00:15:36,160 --> 00:15:39,160 Speaker 1: but we don't store our wealth in all types of assets. So, 332 00:15:39,280 --> 00:15:42,600 Speaker 1: just for this exercise, being conservative, I know this sounds crazy, 333 00:15:42,760 --> 00:15:45,040 Speaker 1: we're only looking at what we call store of value assets, 334 00:15:45,040 --> 00:15:47,080 Speaker 1: things that you would put your money into such as 335 00:15:47,240 --> 00:15:49,880 Speaker 1: gold is a store of value asset real estate. Sure, 336 00:15:49,920 --> 00:15:51,720 Speaker 1: I have a house there, but I park my wealth 337 00:15:51,760 --> 00:15:55,760 Speaker 1: in real estate as well, bonds, stocks, things like that. Okay, 338 00:15:56,000 --> 00:15:58,320 Speaker 1: so if we look at that. Here's a chart from 339 00:15:58,760 --> 00:16:02,920 Speaker 1: Jesse Croasis. He did an amazing write up on this. 340 00:16:03,000 --> 00:16:04,720 Speaker 1: We're going to link to it in the description down 341 00:16:04,760 --> 00:16:06,360 Speaker 1: below if you want to read his rite up and 342 00:16:06,360 --> 00:16:08,880 Speaker 1: break down of this. But we have store of value 343 00:16:08,920 --> 00:16:13,120 Speaker 1: assets right here, gold, cars, other collectibles. So rich people 344 00:16:13,120 --> 00:16:16,000 Speaker 1: buy really old collectible cars, things like that, they store 345 00:16:16,000 --> 00:16:17,800 Speaker 1: their wealth in there. One of my buddies down the 346 00:16:17,840 --> 00:16:20,240 Speaker 1: streets got a couple Mustangs that are worth millions of dollars. 347 00:16:20,280 --> 00:16:24,080 Speaker 1: Pretty cool, doesn't drive them fine? Art of course, stock market, right, 348 00:16:24,120 --> 00:16:26,400 Speaker 1: we buy stock to put our wealth in their real estate, 349 00:16:26,480 --> 00:16:27,960 Speaker 1: Like I said, not just your home, but other real 350 00:16:28,080 --> 00:16:30,560 Speaker 1: estate that you invest in, bonds, and of course money. 351 00:16:30,720 --> 00:16:33,160 Speaker 1: If we add those up, we have twelve trillion dollars 352 00:16:33,240 --> 00:16:36,720 Speaker 1: in gold, six trillion in collectibles, eighteen trillion in fine art, 353 00:16:36,720 --> 00:16:39,800 Speaker 1: one hundred and fifteen trillion, and you do the math. 354 00:16:39,880 --> 00:16:43,520 Speaker 1: It totals nine hundred trillion dollars. If we add all 355 00:16:43,560 --> 00:16:46,720 Speaker 1: that up. Now again back to the uber example, uber 356 00:16:46,800 --> 00:16:50,200 Speaker 1: is going to disrupt taxis, limos vans. What percentage do 357 00:16:50,240 --> 00:16:52,240 Speaker 1: we think it can get from each of those markets? 358 00:16:52,360 --> 00:16:56,600 Speaker 1: So conservatively, do we think bitcoin could capture fifty percent 359 00:16:57,080 --> 00:17:00,000 Speaker 1: of the gold market cap? I think so, Golden Sacks, 360 00:17:00,080 --> 00:17:02,960 Speaker 1: this is going to overtake it. So fifty percent. That 361 00:17:03,000 --> 00:17:06,960 Speaker 1: puts bitcoin at six trillion, cars, other collectibles. It's not 362 00:17:07,000 --> 00:17:08,720 Speaker 1: going to take the whole thing. People like cars, people 363 00:17:08,800 --> 00:17:10,920 Speaker 1: like collectibles, people like fine art. But could it take 364 00:17:10,960 --> 00:17:14,719 Speaker 1: five percent? I think that's reasonable, fine art five percent, 365 00:17:14,840 --> 00:17:18,359 Speaker 1: sure stock market fifteen percent, I think reasonable, real estate 366 00:17:18,400 --> 00:17:23,320 Speaker 1: fifteen percent. Okay, bonds thirty percent, money thirty percent. That 367 00:17:23,359 --> 00:17:27,840 Speaker 1: brings us to two hundred trillion dollars just at those levels, 368 00:17:28,040 --> 00:17:31,840 Speaker 1: and this could happen over the next five, six, seven years. 369 00:17:31,960 --> 00:17:34,160 Speaker 1: All right, I'll get more to the timeframe. We'll break 370 00:17:34,160 --> 00:17:36,680 Speaker 1: this map down a little bit more. But that would 371 00:17:36,720 --> 00:17:39,960 Speaker 1: put it one bitcoin to ten million dollars. It's a 372 00:17:39,960 --> 00:17:43,600 Speaker 1: big number, ten million dollars just forgetting these pieces. Now. 373 00:17:43,600 --> 00:17:45,679 Speaker 1: We're not even adding all the other use cases, the 374 00:17:45,760 --> 00:17:48,480 Speaker 1: money exchanging, we're not including all the technologies being built 375 00:17:48,520 --> 00:17:52,320 Speaker 1: on bitcoin. We're just talking about store of value assets only, 376 00:17:52,800 --> 00:17:54,640 Speaker 1: all right, so you can see that math. Now let's 377 00:17:54,720 --> 00:17:59,400 Speaker 1: keep going here. Now, remember there's no such thing as certainties, 378 00:17:59,440 --> 00:18:04,159 Speaker 1: there's only probabilities. So is this a probable outcome? But 379 00:18:04,240 --> 00:18:07,600 Speaker 1: what we do know is pretty much certain, ninety nine 380 00:18:07,600 --> 00:18:11,480 Speaker 1: percent certain that FIAT is dead, FIAT is crashing. FIAT 381 00:18:11,520 --> 00:18:14,480 Speaker 1: was an experiment. We're fifty two years into this experiment, 382 00:18:14,640 --> 00:18:18,120 Speaker 1: five thousand years of using sound money, fifty two years 383 00:18:18,119 --> 00:18:21,040 Speaker 1: of FIAT, and it's dead. It's over. There's pretty much 384 00:18:21,080 --> 00:18:23,000 Speaker 1: no way I can continue from here. Like I said, 385 00:18:23,160 --> 00:18:25,040 Speaker 1: they're going to have to figure out a way to 386 00:18:25,200 --> 00:18:29,360 Speaker 1: bring some trust back into the system. So what options 387 00:18:29,400 --> 00:18:31,640 Speaker 1: do we have. Well, I did a video a couple 388 00:18:31,720 --> 00:18:33,679 Speaker 1: months ago in Amsterdam, or I gave a talk at 389 00:18:33,680 --> 00:18:35,800 Speaker 1: a conference in Amsdam a couple months ago. Let's go 390 00:18:35,800 --> 00:18:37,480 Speaker 1: ahead and just play this clip so you can hear it. 391 00:18:37,840 --> 00:18:40,959 Speaker 1: We can see this system is shifting. If you're paying attention, 392 00:18:41,440 --> 00:18:45,399 Speaker 1: they're buying gold. The problem is that already failed before. 393 00:18:46,080 --> 00:18:50,240 Speaker 1: We live in a information world today. We need money 394 00:18:50,280 --> 00:18:53,879 Speaker 1: to transfer at the speed of our transactions over the internet, 395 00:18:54,000 --> 00:18:58,080 Speaker 1: and gold can't do that. Gold requires trust. Since gold 396 00:18:58,119 --> 00:19:01,679 Speaker 1: can't transfer immediately, are someone to hold a ledger and 397 00:19:01,720 --> 00:19:04,400 Speaker 1: if someone's holding the ledger, we must trust that person. 398 00:19:04,960 --> 00:19:07,639 Speaker 1: But trust is lost. So if that doesn't work, if 399 00:19:07,680 --> 00:19:10,240 Speaker 1: we don't go back to commodities, where do we go. Well, 400 00:19:10,280 --> 00:19:14,040 Speaker 1: the next solution is central bank digital currencies, because that 401 00:19:14,080 --> 00:19:18,359 Speaker 1: should fix everything. Right, The CBDCs seem to be the 402 00:19:18,400 --> 00:19:21,200 Speaker 1: next logical step. But the problem is I would call 403 00:19:21,240 --> 00:19:24,240 Speaker 1: this not de evolution, I'd call it zero evolution because 404 00:19:24,240 --> 00:19:27,480 Speaker 1: it's basically the exact same thing that we have right now. 405 00:19:28,920 --> 00:19:31,480 Speaker 1: It still allows US central banks to print unlimited amounts 406 00:19:31,480 --> 00:19:34,760 Speaker 1: of money. So if we have a problem of inless 407 00:19:34,760 --> 00:19:37,200 Speaker 1: money printing, then we need to fix it. We need 408 00:19:37,200 --> 00:19:40,359 Speaker 1: a solution that has a fixed supply, doesn't allow anybody 409 00:19:40,440 --> 00:19:43,560 Speaker 1: to have in this money printing. And in a multipolar world, 410 00:19:43,600 --> 00:19:46,639 Speaker 1: whether we're no longer in the current monetary order or 411 00:19:46,680 --> 00:19:50,720 Speaker 1: the current international order that we have today, a US 412 00:19:50,840 --> 00:19:54,399 Speaker 1: led order with a US dollar reserve currency in a 413 00:19:54,800 --> 00:20:02,880 Speaker 1: paper fiat monetary system, moving to a multipolar world, how 414 00:20:02,880 --> 00:20:05,680 Speaker 1: does the world move forward when there is no trust? 415 00:20:06,359 --> 00:20:08,960 Speaker 1: In a world where trust is gone, it's almost like 416 00:20:09,080 --> 00:20:14,240 Speaker 1: we need a decentralized ledger that's trust lists. And so 417 00:20:14,560 --> 00:20:17,240 Speaker 1: in this new world order that we're going into, the 418 00:20:17,320 --> 00:20:21,160 Speaker 1: question is left, if not bitcoined, then what all right, 419 00:20:21,240 --> 00:20:24,120 Speaker 1: so you can hear from there like the options are 420 00:20:24,280 --> 00:20:27,480 Speaker 1: one we go back to gold, but gold already failed 421 00:20:27,480 --> 00:20:30,320 Speaker 1: because it's old technology. We live in a world of 422 00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:34,080 Speaker 1: instant transactions and we need instant settlement, but gold can 423 00:20:34,119 --> 00:20:36,199 Speaker 1: never do that without adding debt and adding trust in 424 00:20:36,240 --> 00:20:38,280 Speaker 1: the system, which there is no trust in the system anymore. 425 00:20:38,320 --> 00:20:41,600 Speaker 1: So gold doesn't work. The other option is well, a CBDC, 426 00:20:41,720 --> 00:20:43,840 Speaker 1: but that's basically still FIAT and the problem is the 427 00:20:43,920 --> 00:20:46,680 Speaker 1: unlimited money printing in the debt, so that doesn't fix 428 00:20:46,720 --> 00:20:49,879 Speaker 1: it either. So, as I put in the question at 429 00:20:49,920 --> 00:20:52,560 Speaker 1: the end of debt presentation, if not bitcoined, then what 430 00:20:53,160 --> 00:20:56,000 Speaker 1: So it's not guaranteed, but is it at least probable? 431 00:20:56,200 --> 00:20:58,600 Speaker 1: Do you think there's a twenty percent chance that people 432 00:20:58,680 --> 00:21:01,280 Speaker 1: move to it? I mean, we're certainly seeing that happen now. 433 00:21:01,640 --> 00:21:04,240 Speaker 1: Is there a thirty, forty fifty percent chance. We'll come 434 00:21:04,320 --> 00:21:06,639 Speaker 1: back to that in a second. Let's look at some 435 00:21:06,680 --> 00:21:08,560 Speaker 1: of the time frames that is happening on now. Remember 436 00:21:08,720 --> 00:21:10,760 Speaker 1: I said this is an evolutionary process. One of the 437 00:21:10,800 --> 00:21:13,600 Speaker 1: biggest problems that people have with understanding this is they 438 00:21:13,640 --> 00:21:16,400 Speaker 1: expect way too much too soon. Imagine you and I 439 00:21:16,560 --> 00:21:19,239 Speaker 1: walking through a forest of redwoods and we find this 440 00:21:19,280 --> 00:21:21,040 Speaker 1: little tree like this big, and I'm like, oh my gosh, 441 00:21:21,080 --> 00:21:22,679 Speaker 1: look at this little tree. Look how cool it is. Can 442 00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:26,080 Speaker 1: you imagine that this tree one day is going to 443 00:21:26,080 --> 00:21:27,920 Speaker 1: be as big as these other trees? And You're like, Oh, 444 00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:30,440 Speaker 1: that's stupid, Mark, that tree will never be that big. 445 00:21:30,480 --> 00:21:32,360 Speaker 1: Look how small it is. How could it ever grow 446 00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:36,800 Speaker 1: that big? And I'm like, but give it time, give 447 00:21:36,800 --> 00:21:38,680 Speaker 1: it a couple decades. It's like it'll get there. Right. 448 00:21:38,800 --> 00:21:41,160 Speaker 1: So you have to understand things take time, and there's 449 00:21:41,200 --> 00:21:43,840 Speaker 1: an evolutionary path that things have to go down. Another 450 00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:47,520 Speaker 1: image by chat GBT showing this evolutionary path. So what 451 00:21:47,560 --> 00:21:49,000 Speaker 1: am I talking about? Let's take a look at this 452 00:21:49,040 --> 00:21:52,159 Speaker 1: evolutionary path. So remember, as I said money, If you 453 00:21:52,240 --> 00:21:56,720 Speaker 1: study thousands of years of history of money, rocks, feathers, seashells, gold, 454 00:21:56,800 --> 00:21:59,160 Speaker 1: you understand it. It was always emergent and it was always 455 00:21:59,160 --> 00:22:03,200 Speaker 1: an evolution. Happens is it starts right here as a collectible. 456 00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:05,160 Speaker 1: Oh this is a pretty cool rock. I think I'm 457 00:22:05,160 --> 00:22:06,879 Speaker 1: going to keep it. It's a collectible. Oh look at 458 00:22:06,880 --> 00:22:09,120 Speaker 1: this baseball card, This Pokemon card. I like this, I'll 459 00:22:09,160 --> 00:22:12,120 Speaker 1: collect it. Now, there's a lot of things that become collectibles. 460 00:22:12,240 --> 00:22:17,280 Speaker 1: But if maybe, sometimes they could evolve to the next stage, 461 00:22:17,840 --> 00:22:22,399 Speaker 1: which could become a store of value. So baseball cards 462 00:22:22,400 --> 00:22:24,679 Speaker 1: are stores of value. Some people store millions of dollars 463 00:22:24,760 --> 00:22:30,000 Speaker 1: in baseball cards, Pokemon cards, watches. Not all collectibles make 464 00:22:30,080 --> 00:22:33,240 Speaker 1: the evolution to store value, but a lot do. Now 465 00:22:33,320 --> 00:22:39,800 Speaker 1: if maybe, if they have the right attributes of money, portable, divisible, durable, recognizable, 466 00:22:39,840 --> 00:22:42,840 Speaker 1: things like that, then maybe it could evolve to the 467 00:22:42,880 --> 00:22:47,679 Speaker 1: next stage from a store value to a medium of exchange. Okay, 468 00:22:47,720 --> 00:22:49,840 Speaker 1: so now it's big enough, it's a big enough asset class, 469 00:22:49,880 --> 00:22:52,280 Speaker 1: it's widely accepted, it has that right attributes, like I said, 470 00:22:52,320 --> 00:22:54,360 Speaker 1: and now people use it as a medium exchange. And 471 00:22:54,400 --> 00:22:58,600 Speaker 1: then maybe, if potentially, if it could, we could evolve 472 00:22:58,600 --> 00:23:01,000 Speaker 1: to the next stage, which is a unit of account, 473 00:23:01,119 --> 00:23:04,639 Speaker 1: which means everything's priced in that thing. Now. Right now, 474 00:23:04,680 --> 00:23:07,960 Speaker 1: everything's priced in dollars. Oil's priced in dollars, gold priced 475 00:23:07,960 --> 00:23:10,200 Speaker 1: in dollars. Most of the world prices things in dollars 476 00:23:10,240 --> 00:23:12,520 Speaker 1: because it is the currency of the world. Now some 477 00:23:12,520 --> 00:23:14,760 Speaker 1: countries have other currencies, but you get my point. You're 478 00:23:14,760 --> 00:23:17,440 Speaker 1: still pricing it in that currency. So this is the 479 00:23:17,480 --> 00:23:21,120 Speaker 1: evolutionary path. I think we are somewhere right around here. 480 00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:24,720 Speaker 1: We've already checked all these boxes and we have a 481 00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:27,720 Speaker 1: little bit ways to go. Now, what time frame are 482 00:23:27,720 --> 00:23:29,600 Speaker 1: we looking at? All? Right? I showed you the path. 483 00:23:29,960 --> 00:23:32,160 Speaker 1: What is the time frame? Now? That evolutionary path doesn't 484 00:23:32,160 --> 00:23:35,800 Speaker 1: mean it's guaranteed. Remember life is about probabilities, but we 485 00:23:35,840 --> 00:23:38,800 Speaker 1: can continue to watch that now over what time frame? Now, 486 00:23:38,840 --> 00:23:42,040 Speaker 1: when you look back through technological revolutions, you realize they 487 00:23:42,080 --> 00:23:44,760 Speaker 1: happen about every fifty years. You've heard me talk extensively 488 00:23:44,760 --> 00:23:48,280 Speaker 1: about technology cycles. So this is a path. This is 489 00:23:48,320 --> 00:23:52,719 Speaker 1: where bitcoin started right here, and we are sitting somewhere 490 00:23:52,800 --> 00:23:56,160 Speaker 1: right about here right now, we're in this path. You're 491 00:23:56,240 --> 00:23:59,000 Speaker 1: not too late. We still have all this to go 492 00:23:59,440 --> 00:24:01,879 Speaker 1: right here before we start to level out. And I 493 00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:04,760 Speaker 1: think we really see all this happen by about twenty fifty. 494 00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:06,320 Speaker 1: So I don't know where you're at in your stage 495 00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:08,440 Speaker 1: of life right now. You could be alive to see 496 00:24:08,440 --> 00:24:11,639 Speaker 1: this happen. Now, none of this is guaranteed, but this 497 00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:14,919 Speaker 1: is the most probable outcome going back to old technology 498 00:24:14,920 --> 00:24:19,280 Speaker 1: of gold or what that's the question, and you can 499 00:24:19,320 --> 00:24:22,679 Speaker 1: see we're rapidly heading for this. Now we're literally living 500 00:24:22,760 --> 00:24:26,119 Speaker 1: through this. We're literally watching this revolution. We're watching this 501 00:24:26,200 --> 00:24:30,200 Speaker 1: financial revolution cycle end right in front of us. Okay, great, 502 00:24:30,240 --> 00:24:34,679 Speaker 1: So now you understand what it's attacking value itself. You 503 00:24:34,760 --> 00:24:38,000 Speaker 1: understand that's the evolutionary path and what that process looks like. 504 00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:41,480 Speaker 1: You understand the time frame. Now let's talk about the prices. Now. 505 00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:44,240 Speaker 1: I talked about forty three billion, you know, in fifty 506 00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:46,879 Speaker 1: sixty years from now, but where is it in a 507 00:24:46,960 --> 00:24:49,119 Speaker 1: year from now, or four or five years from now, 508 00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:51,119 Speaker 1: seven or eight years from now. Let's talk about that 509 00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:53,679 Speaker 1: for now, all right, So, how Finny was one of 510 00:24:53,720 --> 00:24:57,720 Speaker 1: the main developers that developed bitcoin. He worked with Satoshi Nakamoto, which, yes, 511 00:24:57,840 --> 00:24:59,520 Speaker 1: nobody knows who he is, but we know lots of 512 00:24:59,560 --> 00:25:02,399 Speaker 1: the other helopers that worked on it with Satoshi, including 513 00:25:02,440 --> 00:25:06,199 Speaker 1: howf any Adam back, Nigsabo, et cetera. So how Finnie 514 00:25:06,200 --> 00:25:09,160 Speaker 1: was a developer. Now, back in two thousand and nine 515 00:25:09,240 --> 00:25:10,840 Speaker 1: when it was released, we just got a whole bunch 516 00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:14,280 Speaker 1: of Satoshi's emails released to the public. We can see 517 00:25:14,280 --> 00:25:17,159 Speaker 1: this was January tenth, two thousand and nine, and he 518 00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:20,760 Speaker 1: said here announcing the first release of bitcoin. Pretty cool, 519 00:25:21,040 --> 00:25:23,080 Speaker 1: but we can see through those emails. I sort of 520 00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:25,479 Speaker 1: summarized it here so you can see it easier. How 521 00:25:25,560 --> 00:25:30,200 Speaker 1: Finny predicted twenty two million dollar bitcoin. This was back 522 00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:31,960 Speaker 1: in two thousand and nine when it was first released. 523 00:25:32,119 --> 00:25:34,960 Speaker 1: He said, not based on mere speculation, but rather on 524 00:25:35,040 --> 00:25:39,760 Speaker 1: a thoughtful analysis of bitcoin's potential as a global payment system. 525 00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:41,720 Speaker 1: So he back into the math sort of the same 526 00:25:41,720 --> 00:25:44,280 Speaker 1: way I am. The collective value of bitcoin would align 527 00:25:44,560 --> 00:25:47,040 Speaker 1: with the total wealth of the world. Wealth of the 528 00:25:47,040 --> 00:25:49,840 Speaker 1: world divided by the asset unit of account, which he 529 00:25:50,000 --> 00:25:51,960 Speaker 1: estimated to be within the range of one hundred trillion 530 00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:54,520 Speaker 1: to three hundred trillion dollars. That was in two thousand 531 00:25:54,520 --> 00:25:57,840 Speaker 1: and nine. Today it's about nine hundred trillion dollars. By 532 00:25:57,840 --> 00:25:59,840 Speaker 1: dividing this value among the limited supply of twenty one 533 00:25:59,840 --> 00:26:04,280 Speaker 1: mister bitcoin, Finney came up with a twenty two million 534 00:26:04,359 --> 00:26:06,680 Speaker 1: dollar price per bitcoin. That was in two thousand and nine, 535 00:26:06,680 --> 00:26:07,920 Speaker 1: when it was first invented. You could have picked it 536 00:26:07,960 --> 00:26:10,080 Speaker 1: up for a couple of pennies. But he saw that 537 00:26:10,200 --> 00:26:13,960 Speaker 1: vision that we're rapidly heading towards. What about let's hear 538 00:26:14,000 --> 00:26:18,680 Speaker 1: from Chamoth Chamoth is a prolific investor in Silicon Valley 539 00:26:18,960 --> 00:26:22,280 Speaker 1: early early, early into Facebook billionaire. Let's hear what he 540 00:26:22,359 --> 00:26:25,720 Speaker 1: had to say Bitcoin that falls into that category, because 541 00:26:25,720 --> 00:26:30,240 Speaker 1: that's what that is. Thirty nine thousand. Where's it going? 542 00:26:30,960 --> 00:26:33,320 Speaker 2: I mean, can you play the clip in twenty twelve 543 00:26:33,359 --> 00:26:35,720 Speaker 2: and thirteen when it was at two hundred and everybody 544 00:26:35,760 --> 00:26:37,920 Speaker 2: was laughing at me on CFPC every time I would 545 00:26:37,960 --> 00:26:41,439 Speaker 2: talk about bitcoin, where's it going? It's probably going to 546 00:26:41,480 --> 00:26:43,520 Speaker 2: one hundred and one hundred and fifty, then two hundred 547 00:26:43,520 --> 00:26:47,399 Speaker 2: thousand in what period I don't know, five years, ten years, 548 00:26:47,920 --> 00:26:50,640 Speaker 2: but it's going there. And the reason is because every 549 00:26:50,640 --> 00:26:54,760 Speaker 2: time you see all of this stuff happening, it just 550 00:26:54,800 --> 00:26:58,000 Speaker 2: reminds you that, wow, our leaders are not as trustworthy 551 00:26:58,000 --> 00:27:00,879 Speaker 2: and reliable as they used to be. And so just 552 00:27:00,960 --> 00:27:04,199 Speaker 2: in case, we really do need to have some kind of, 553 00:27:04,480 --> 00:27:07,080 Speaker 2: you know, insurance we can keep under our pillow that 554 00:27:07,240 --> 00:27:10,120 Speaker 2: gives us some access to an uncorrelated hedge. 555 00:27:10,560 --> 00:27:12,879 Speaker 1: All right now, mind you, this video is from twenty 556 00:27:13,000 --> 00:27:15,520 Speaker 1: twenty one, so he's talking about it going to one hundred, 557 00:27:15,560 --> 00:27:18,080 Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty all the way up to a 558 00:27:18,160 --> 00:27:21,199 Speaker 1: million dollars, which is certainly doing. He says a million 559 00:27:21,240 --> 00:27:25,879 Speaker 1: dollars by twenty forty. That's the timeframe he's on. What 560 00:27:25,960 --> 00:27:28,880 Speaker 1: else we have we have Fidelity. Fidelity is I think 561 00:27:28,920 --> 00:27:31,000 Speaker 1: the second largest asset manager in the US. They do 562 00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:33,959 Speaker 1: a lot of research on bitcoin. It's the second largest 563 00:27:33,960 --> 00:27:38,400 Speaker 1: bitcoin etf They predict a billion dollars for one bitcoin 564 00:27:38,480 --> 00:27:41,359 Speaker 1: by twenty thirty eight, twenty thirty eight. The director of 565 00:27:41,359 --> 00:27:45,000 Speaker 1: Global Macro Fidelity Investments thinks a single bitcoin could reach 566 00:27:45,119 --> 00:27:48,320 Speaker 1: one billion by the year twenty thirty eight. A lot 567 00:27:48,320 --> 00:27:50,280 Speaker 1: of what he's done is rooted and he's come up 568 00:27:50,280 --> 00:27:52,760 Speaker 1: with this from a bunch of angles. Specifically, he says 569 00:27:52,760 --> 00:27:55,320 Speaker 1: it's rooted in Metcalf's law, which is that a network 570 00:27:55,359 --> 00:27:58,320 Speaker 1: continues to grow faster and faster and faster becomes more valuable. 571 00:27:58,960 --> 00:28:00,760 Speaker 1: And he says it will grow to about one million 572 00:28:01,040 --> 00:28:04,720 Speaker 1: per bitcoin by twenty thirty so one million by twenty thirty, 573 00:28:05,000 --> 00:28:08,520 Speaker 1: one billion by twenty thirty eight. Based off of that. 574 00:28:08,800 --> 00:28:10,600 Speaker 1: Now fidealite, Like I said, they put out a ton 575 00:28:10,640 --> 00:28:13,040 Speaker 1: of good research and data on this, one of which 576 00:28:13,119 --> 00:28:16,119 Speaker 1: is this Metscalf's law, and you can see how this 577 00:28:16,280 --> 00:28:20,520 Speaker 1: price arc is working. It doesn't go up hyperbolically forever. Right, 578 00:28:20,600 --> 00:28:23,920 Speaker 1: it doesn't go up straight line. It starts to taper off, 579 00:28:24,080 --> 00:28:26,280 Speaker 1: but yet it still goes up. We have a million 580 00:28:26,320 --> 00:28:29,959 Speaker 1: dollar bitcoin, you know, right about here, and you can 581 00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:32,080 Speaker 1: see that. I'll have this other chart right here that 582 00:28:32,119 --> 00:28:34,680 Speaker 1: I think is really good fidelity put together. You can 583 00:28:34,720 --> 00:28:37,760 Speaker 1: get all this information directly off of their website. But 584 00:28:37,840 --> 00:28:40,240 Speaker 1: this shows the different analogs. So this is the price 585 00:28:40,320 --> 00:28:43,600 Speaker 1: the bitcoin price arc right here, and I know for 586 00:28:43,680 --> 00:28:46,000 Speaker 1: the bitcoin skeptics, I know it crashes, right, So it 587 00:28:46,000 --> 00:28:48,120 Speaker 1: goes super high, and then it crashes all the way 588 00:28:48,120 --> 00:28:50,840 Speaker 1: back down, and then it stays below the trend line. 589 00:28:50,840 --> 00:28:52,760 Speaker 1: And then it goes super high, and then it crashes 590 00:28:52,800 --> 00:28:54,600 Speaker 1: all the way down again, and it stays below the 591 00:28:54,600 --> 00:28:56,480 Speaker 1: trend and it crashes. It goes super high, and it 592 00:28:56,480 --> 00:28:58,920 Speaker 1: crashes all the way down. Now some people go, well, 593 00:28:58,960 --> 00:29:01,080 Speaker 1: why do wouldn't I just sell here and buy right here. 594 00:29:01,240 --> 00:29:03,680 Speaker 1: Sure you can certainly try that, or you could just 595 00:29:03,880 --> 00:29:06,360 Speaker 1: wait and sit and go along for the ride. Now, 596 00:29:06,520 --> 00:29:09,960 Speaker 1: what about me, where do I think it's going to go? Well, 597 00:29:10,040 --> 00:29:12,400 Speaker 1: I think a million dollars by twenty thirty seems pretty 598 00:29:12,480 --> 00:29:15,440 Speaker 1: realistic to me. We'll see again in the world of 599 00:29:15,560 --> 00:29:18,320 Speaker 1: possibilities and probabilities. I think it's highly probable we'll get there. 600 00:29:18,480 --> 00:29:20,920 Speaker 1: It's certainly not guaranteed, which is why I don't put 601 00:29:20,960 --> 00:29:22,760 Speaker 1: one hundred percent of my money in. We'll come back 602 00:29:22,800 --> 00:29:24,880 Speaker 1: to that in a minute. But I think in the 603 00:29:24,920 --> 00:29:27,120 Speaker 1: next eighteen months one hundred to one hundred and fifty 604 00:29:27,120 --> 00:29:30,360 Speaker 1: thousand dollars bitcoin is kind of what I'm thinking. That's 605 00:29:30,400 --> 00:29:32,920 Speaker 1: a two to three x return from here. I don't 606 00:29:32,920 --> 00:29:34,480 Speaker 1: know if any other asset I can put my money 607 00:29:34,480 --> 00:29:36,840 Speaker 1: into right now today that can get me that type 608 00:29:36,840 --> 00:29:39,240 Speaker 1: of return. So that's kind of what I'm thinking. All right. 609 00:29:39,280 --> 00:29:41,760 Speaker 1: So now that you have this information, what are you 610 00:29:41,800 --> 00:29:43,920 Speaker 1: going to do with it? What do you do? Well? 611 00:29:44,400 --> 00:29:47,520 Speaker 1: In the in the famous words of Satoshi Nakamoto, he 612 00:29:47,640 --> 00:29:50,920 Speaker 1: said that it might make sense to get some just 613 00:29:51,040 --> 00:29:54,720 Speaker 1: in case it catches on. So back to the world 614 00:29:54,960 --> 00:29:57,640 Speaker 1: of probabilities, all right, Just like that show I told 615 00:29:57,640 --> 00:30:00,680 Speaker 1: you I was watching, everything's a probability. So do you 616 00:30:00,880 --> 00:30:05,000 Speaker 1: think that there is a fifty percent chance that bitcoin 617 00:30:05,080 --> 00:30:06,760 Speaker 1: gets to one hundred and fifty thousand dollars in the 618 00:30:06,840 --> 00:30:10,360 Speaker 1: next two years? Okay, and it's at fifty thousand today, 619 00:30:10,640 --> 00:30:13,479 Speaker 1: that's a two x upside with a one x downside, 620 00:30:13,480 --> 00:30:16,200 Speaker 1: it's pretty good odds you have fifty percent conviction of that. 621 00:30:16,320 --> 00:30:19,000 Speaker 1: How much money should put in? Maybe put in fifty percent, 622 00:30:19,080 --> 00:30:21,440 Speaker 1: hold the other fifty percent you can average in so 623 00:30:21,480 --> 00:30:25,240 Speaker 1: you can you can buy it. You should secure it 624 00:30:25,280 --> 00:30:27,920 Speaker 1: and hold it, and you can either lump some in, 625 00:30:28,000 --> 00:30:30,160 Speaker 1: you can put that money in, or you can dollar 626 00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:33,800 Speaker 1: cost average in over time. So buy it. That's the 627 00:30:33,840 --> 00:30:36,360 Speaker 1: first thing. Do you have some do you have enough? 628 00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:40,200 Speaker 1: How much should you have it? Bait depends off your conviction. 629 00:30:40,320 --> 00:30:42,200 Speaker 1: Now what we're seeing Wall Street with the ETFs, we're 630 00:30:42,200 --> 00:30:45,320 Speaker 1: putting two to five percent allocations in. You put two 631 00:30:45,320 --> 00:30:47,680 Speaker 1: to five percent allocation in. Even if it drops by 632 00:30:47,720 --> 00:30:50,640 Speaker 1: fifty percent, it's barely even going to be noticed. However, 633 00:30:50,720 --> 00:30:52,840 Speaker 1: if it goes to where we think it can, then 634 00:30:52,880 --> 00:30:55,200 Speaker 1: your portfolio is going to be looking pretty dang good. Now, 635 00:30:55,360 --> 00:30:57,720 Speaker 1: if you're crazy and you have a lot of conviction, 636 00:30:57,880 --> 00:31:00,360 Speaker 1: like I do, you might want thirty, forty five, fifty 637 00:31:00,600 --> 00:31:03,440 Speaker 1: sixty percent allocation to bitcoin. Now, it also depends on 638 00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:05,240 Speaker 1: how much money you have, so those other factors you 639 00:31:05,280 --> 00:31:07,920 Speaker 1: need to figure that out for yourself. Buy it, then 640 00:31:07,960 --> 00:31:10,480 Speaker 1: you need to secure it and hold it. The revolutionary 641 00:31:10,480 --> 00:31:12,520 Speaker 1: feature of bitcoin is that I can custody it and 642 00:31:12,880 --> 00:31:15,080 Speaker 1: secure it and store it myself, and so you should 643 00:31:15,120 --> 00:31:17,960 Speaker 1: certainly do that. I recommend using a hardware wallet to 644 00:31:18,000 --> 00:31:21,000 Speaker 1: do that. Plenty of help online. Check that Out'll go 645 00:31:21,000 --> 00:31:23,280 Speaker 1: to BTC sessions on YouTube. He can show you how 646 00:31:23,320 --> 00:31:25,400 Speaker 1: to do that. And then again, like I said, should 647 00:31:25,440 --> 00:31:27,800 Speaker 1: I buy it now just throw my cash in as 648 00:31:27,800 --> 00:31:30,480 Speaker 1: a lumpsum or should I average in over time? It 649 00:31:30,560 --> 00:31:32,720 Speaker 1: depends on where your conviction is. But this video has 650 00:31:32,760 --> 00:31:34,480 Speaker 1: gone long. That's about as much as I can put 651 00:31:34,520 --> 00:31:36,640 Speaker 1: into it right now. But I'll make more videos. Let 652 00:31:36,680 --> 00:31:37,840 Speaker 1: me know which of these you want me to dig 653 00:31:37,880 --> 00:31:39,720 Speaker 1: into more. Let me know what you think. Leave me 654 00:31:39,720 --> 00:31:42,040 Speaker 1: a calmed down below. Subscribe if you're not subscribed, and 655 00:31:42,080 --> 00:31:44,000 Speaker 1: that's what I got to your success, I'm out