1
00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:04,880
Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that action awesome

2
00:00:07,680 --> 00:00:10,959
Speaker 1: all right. Here we go there throwing Joe.

3
00:00:13,119 --> 00:00:15,080
Speaker 2: I'm saying it's a cash touchdown.

4
00:00:15,960 --> 00:00:18,759
Speaker 3: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, but

5
00:00:18,800 --> 00:00:19,400
Speaker 3: they go to win.

6
00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:21,720
Speaker 2: That's incredible.

7
00:00:22,760 --> 00:00:24,880
Speaker 1: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money.

8
00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:25,320
Speaker 4: All right.

9
00:00:25,960 --> 00:00:27,920
Speaker 2: This is the ultimate kabah.

10
00:00:27,840 --> 00:00:28,280
Speaker 5: You want to.

11
00:00:31,040 --> 00:00:35,760
Speaker 2: And we are underway. Welcome into the Action Network Podcast,

12
00:00:35,880 --> 00:00:38,800
Speaker 2: presented by our friends at bet MGM. Brendan Glass She

13
00:00:39,040 --> 00:00:42,360
Speaker 2: joined by Sean Kerner and Chris Raybond for our how

14
00:00:42,479 --> 00:00:45,960
Speaker 2: to bet NFL player props. Be sure to follow Sean

15
00:00:46,000 --> 00:00:49,480
Speaker 2: and Chris Raybond in the free, award winning Action Network app.

16
00:00:49,600 --> 00:00:51,560
Speaker 2: So for this episode, we're gonna dive into a whole

17
00:00:51,600 --> 00:00:55,560
Speaker 2: bunch the pillars to betting NFL player props, as well

18
00:00:55,560 --> 00:00:59,680
Speaker 2: as some of the challenges, important tools and resources. Process

19
00:01:00,200 --> 00:01:03,400
Speaker 2: pictures start here. Chris, how can a regular listener or

20
00:01:03,520 --> 00:01:06,560
Speaker 2: even a new listener become good at this? Become good

21
00:01:06,720 --> 00:01:10,640
Speaker 2: at betting NFL player props? What does success look like?

22
00:01:10,959 --> 00:01:14,000
Speaker 3: Well, I'll start with the easiest way, and that is

23
00:01:14,040 --> 00:01:19,120
Speaker 3: simply download the Action Network app. Follow Sean Kerner, follow myself,

24
00:01:19,200 --> 00:01:23,320
Speaker 3: Chris Raybond, and you will literally get alerts the second

25
00:01:23,720 --> 00:01:27,119
Speaker 3: we bet any prop, it will come right to your phone.

26
00:01:27,440 --> 00:01:29,399
Speaker 3: You will see the line, you will see the player,

27
00:01:29,440 --> 00:01:31,600
Speaker 3: you will see all the information you need to go

28
00:01:31,640 --> 00:01:35,280
Speaker 3: bet that prop yourself. That's why we both have over

29
00:01:35,400 --> 00:01:39,559
Speaker 3: one hundred thousand followers and counting on the Action Network app.

30
00:01:39,600 --> 00:01:43,320
Speaker 3: We've been highly successful and I know countless people that

31
00:01:43,360 --> 00:01:45,600
Speaker 3: have been highly successful doing it as well.

32
00:01:45,640 --> 00:01:46,960
Speaker 1: So that's the first thing.

33
00:01:47,200 --> 00:01:50,800
Speaker 3: Because the key with the player prop market is that

34
00:01:51,760 --> 00:01:54,400
Speaker 3: these lines a lot of effort is not being put

35
00:01:54,440 --> 00:01:57,680
Speaker 3: in by the books compared to say setting a line

36
00:01:57,680 --> 00:02:00,360
Speaker 3: for a side or a total, and so these lines

37
00:02:00,400 --> 00:02:03,440
Speaker 3: are going to move very quickly, they're they're usually not

38
00:02:03,480 --> 00:02:05,520
Speaker 3: going to be as sharp the cheat code.

39
00:02:05,680 --> 00:02:07,960
Speaker 1: You could just follow us. We're doing the legwork. We're

40
00:02:07,960 --> 00:02:09,280
Speaker 1: doing the player projections.

41
00:02:09,639 --> 00:02:12,600
Speaker 3: That's really the biggest edge is being, you know, being

42
00:02:12,639 --> 00:02:15,280
Speaker 3: able to have somebody you trust that that does that legwork,

43
00:02:15,320 --> 00:02:17,760
Speaker 3: because there's no bigger edge than in betting props that

44
00:02:17,960 --> 00:02:20,760
Speaker 3: actually having projections. You don't need to you can do

45
00:02:21,040 --> 00:02:23,600
Speaker 3: kind of back of the envelope mass. But the key

46
00:02:23,760 --> 00:02:26,840
Speaker 3: is really when you're looking for a prop, there's it's

47
00:02:26,840 --> 00:02:29,160
Speaker 3: not always going to be even juice on each side, right,

48
00:02:29,160 --> 00:02:30,840
Speaker 3: it's not always going to be minus one ten like

49
00:02:30,919 --> 00:02:32,919
Speaker 3: a spreader a total. So I'd say one of the

50
00:02:33,000 --> 00:02:36,480
Speaker 3: key things understand what the different juice means. You know,

51
00:02:36,720 --> 00:02:39,640
Speaker 3: a minus one fifty, for example, means a sixty percent

52
00:02:39,880 --> 00:02:44,639
Speaker 3: implied probability. A plus one fifty means forty percent implied probability.

53
00:02:44,760 --> 00:02:48,600
Speaker 3: You're essentially your bets are dictated by whether you think

54
00:02:49,200 --> 00:02:52,120
Speaker 3: the outcome is more or less likely than that juice.

55
00:02:52,160 --> 00:02:56,120
Speaker 3: You know, if something is plus one fifty and you

56
00:02:56,280 --> 00:02:59,880
Speaker 3: think that it's more like fifty to fifty, then you

57
00:03:00,000 --> 00:03:00,760
Speaker 3: should be betting that.

58
00:03:00,800 --> 00:03:01,639
Speaker 1: You know, and you could do.

59
00:03:01,600 --> 00:03:05,239
Speaker 3: Something as simple as let's say it is a receiving

60
00:03:05,320 --> 00:03:08,640
Speaker 3: yardage under. You can go to a guy's game logs

61
00:03:08,639 --> 00:03:11,560
Speaker 3: and say, okay, he this the line is thirty five

62
00:03:11,600 --> 00:03:14,239
Speaker 3: and a half. He's been under that six times. He's

63
00:03:14,280 --> 00:03:17,360
Speaker 3: been over that only four times. That's about sixty percent.

64
00:03:17,800 --> 00:03:17,960
Speaker 2: Uh.

65
00:03:18,040 --> 00:03:20,040
Speaker 3: Maybe I'll even look back at his career and it's

66
00:03:20,080 --> 00:03:22,560
Speaker 3: kind of the same story. So I think, roughly there's

67
00:03:22,560 --> 00:03:25,120
Speaker 3: a sixty percent chance that he goes under, and I'm

68
00:03:25,120 --> 00:03:27,280
Speaker 3: getting value there, and that's how you bet props. But

69
00:03:28,280 --> 00:03:31,440
Speaker 3: as Sean Will, I'm sure go into detail on you know,

70
00:03:32,120 --> 00:03:36,600
Speaker 3: we're creating models for you know, each individual uh market.

71
00:03:36,720 --> 00:03:40,440
Speaker 3: You know, we're projecting every player's receiving yards and passing

72
00:03:40,520 --> 00:03:42,760
Speaker 3: yards and rushing yards and all that good stuff each

73
00:03:42,800 --> 00:03:46,120
Speaker 3: week for NFL uh and and sometimes we do it

74
00:03:46,120 --> 00:03:48,520
Speaker 3: for other sports in the offseason as well. And that's

75
00:03:48,520 --> 00:03:51,320
Speaker 3: how we're kind of doing it. So that's why that's

76
00:03:51,360 --> 00:03:53,920
Speaker 3: the easiest way. But if you want to kind of

77
00:03:53,920 --> 00:03:56,240
Speaker 3: get into it yourself, you just need to kind of

78
00:03:56,320 --> 00:04:00,000
Speaker 3: understand those the juices and those probabilities and figure out

79
00:04:00,200 --> 00:04:03,960
Speaker 3: some way to have to get an idea of what

80
00:04:04,000 --> 00:04:07,000
Speaker 3: the true probability of that alchemy is. Whether it's something

81
00:04:07,040 --> 00:04:09,400
Speaker 3: as simple as back of the unfold mass as I mentioned,

82
00:04:09,400 --> 00:04:11,800
Speaker 3: whether it's something as complicated as you know, throwing a

83
00:04:11,800 --> 00:04:14,800
Speaker 3: bunch of data in a spreadsheet or AI or algorithm

84
00:04:14,920 --> 00:04:15,880
Speaker 3: and creating your own.

85
00:04:15,920 --> 00:04:17,359
Speaker 1: But that's basically it.

86
00:04:17,560 --> 00:04:22,920
Speaker 3: You're just betting on probabilities, and you generally want to

87
00:04:22,920 --> 00:04:25,719
Speaker 3: target unders too, because books are shading lines to the over,

88
00:04:25,760 --> 00:04:29,039
Speaker 3: even if it's only by that point five, unders have

89
00:04:29,160 --> 00:04:32,760
Speaker 3: been more profitable pretty much every single year I've ever

90
00:04:32,839 --> 00:04:35,200
Speaker 3: bet props. I don't think I'm at two decades yet,

91
00:04:35,279 --> 00:04:39,640
Speaker 3: like Sean, but I'm not far behind, and I don't

92
00:04:39,640 --> 00:04:41,760
Speaker 3: ever remember a year where overs have been more profitable

93
00:04:41,800 --> 00:04:42,360
Speaker 3: than unders.

94
00:04:42,560 --> 00:04:44,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, Sean, I already have a tingly feeling because it

95
00:04:44,880 --> 00:04:46,760
Speaker 2: makes me think about when I've worked with you and

96
00:04:46,760 --> 00:04:49,120
Speaker 2: then taken folks behind the curtain a bit, whether it

97
00:04:49,160 --> 00:04:52,640
Speaker 2: be a Thursday standalone game or a Monday standalone game,

98
00:04:52,680 --> 00:04:54,440
Speaker 2: and you're ready to come on a show or you're

99
00:04:54,480 --> 00:04:56,839
Speaker 2: ready to do a record, and you've got a player

100
00:04:56,880 --> 00:04:59,640
Speaker 2: in mind, or receiver or running back it's longest rush

101
00:04:59,760 --> 00:05:02,320
Speaker 2: or it's receiving yards for a game, longest catch, or

102
00:05:02,640 --> 00:05:05,720
Speaker 2: whatever it may be. And something you can definitely speak

103
00:05:05,760 --> 00:05:09,400
Speaker 2: to is lines move rapidly after you might give out

104
00:05:09,400 --> 00:05:12,400
Speaker 2: a play or someone that's well respected and the business

105
00:05:12,400 --> 00:05:15,800
Speaker 2: gives out a play. And that also speaks to the

106
00:05:15,839 --> 00:05:19,160
Speaker 2: importance of maybe having multiple accounts to make sure you

107
00:05:19,240 --> 00:05:21,640
Speaker 2: capitalize on the market when you're surfing around.

108
00:05:22,400 --> 00:05:22,679
Speaker 1: Yeah.

109
00:05:22,720 --> 00:05:25,360
Speaker 4: So yeah, when it comes to player props, if I'm

110
00:05:25,720 --> 00:05:28,640
Speaker 4: you know, giving one out on green Dot daily, it

111
00:05:28,720 --> 00:05:30,760
Speaker 4: kind of goes to what Raybon was talking about is

112
00:05:31,240 --> 00:05:34,400
Speaker 4: the markets don't have as much action as say the

113
00:05:34,440 --> 00:05:38,120
Speaker 4: spread in total markets, so it doesn't take much action

114
00:05:38,200 --> 00:05:41,000
Speaker 4: to start moving the prop. But you know, if I

115
00:05:41,080 --> 00:05:43,359
Speaker 4: give out a prop, you know there's going to be

116
00:05:43,640 --> 00:05:45,560
Speaker 4: a lot of other people that bet it at the

117
00:05:45,560 --> 00:05:49,680
Speaker 4: same time. So books tend to I don't say freak out,

118
00:05:49,680 --> 00:05:53,400
Speaker 4: but they tend to move it quicker because they notice

119
00:05:53,400 --> 00:05:56,919
Speaker 4: all this activity. So that's why I kind of emphasize

120
00:05:57,240 --> 00:05:59,960
Speaker 4: watching these shows, getting you know, our notifications in the air,

121
00:06:00,200 --> 00:06:03,480
Speaker 4: because these do tend to move really fast, especially when

122
00:06:03,520 --> 00:06:06,200
Speaker 4: we give them out. You made another point where I

123
00:06:06,200 --> 00:06:09,120
Speaker 4: think it's critical to have access to as many books

124
00:06:09,640 --> 00:06:12,560
Speaker 4: as possible, because you know, most books are pretty much

125
00:06:12,560 --> 00:06:14,640
Speaker 4: in line when it comes to spreads and totals, but

126
00:06:15,440 --> 00:06:17,400
Speaker 4: just based on how player props and how they work,

127
00:06:17,400 --> 00:06:19,960
Speaker 4: you can find some books are off by you know,

128
00:06:20,000 --> 00:06:23,240
Speaker 4: a handful of yards, and as Raybaugh mentioned, that's key.

129
00:06:23,360 --> 00:06:25,800
Speaker 4: Just getting a few extra yards, you know, of the

130
00:06:25,839 --> 00:06:29,440
Speaker 4: long run, that's going to help your win percentage as well.

131
00:06:29,720 --> 00:06:31,800
Speaker 4: So you're always trying to get the best numbers, and

132
00:06:31,880 --> 00:06:35,279
Speaker 4: having more access to more books and numbers is only

133
00:06:35,320 --> 00:06:35,720
Speaker 4: going to help.

134
00:06:36,640 --> 00:06:39,440
Speaker 2: Chris, let's talk about the pillars and try. We'll try

135
00:06:39,480 --> 00:06:40,839
Speaker 2: our best here to keep it because I know you

136
00:06:40,839 --> 00:06:45,520
Speaker 2: can use your ideologies on the pillars of prop betting

137
00:06:45,720 --> 00:06:48,599
Speaker 2: can fit a lot of different sports, but focusing strictly

138
00:06:48,640 --> 00:06:50,960
Speaker 2: on NFL, what are some of the pillars that people

139
00:06:51,000 --> 00:06:51,359
Speaker 2: need to know?

140
00:06:52,160 --> 00:06:55,159
Speaker 3: Well, I always thought with telling people, make sure you

141
00:06:55,320 --> 00:06:58,240
Speaker 3: kind of accustom yourself with thinking negatively, and what I

142
00:06:58,279 --> 00:07:01,800
Speaker 3: mean by that is look for unders, because you can.

143
00:07:02,240 --> 00:07:04,360
Speaker 3: You could make all kinds of other prop bets, but

144
00:07:04,800 --> 00:07:08,080
Speaker 3: I think unders are always going to be the cornerstone, uh,

145
00:07:08,240 --> 00:07:11,880
Speaker 3: for the simple fact that, again, you know, having done

146
00:07:11,880 --> 00:07:13,560
Speaker 3: this for such a long time, I don't think I've

147
00:07:13,560 --> 00:07:17,880
Speaker 3: ever seen any time period where unders were taking more

148
00:07:17,920 --> 00:07:22,000
Speaker 3: action than overs. Overs are always, uh, the most the

149
00:07:22,280 --> 00:07:25,360
Speaker 3: side that is most bet and therefore not only are

150
00:07:25,400 --> 00:07:29,200
Speaker 3: books shading their lines on the open to the over,

151
00:07:29,520 --> 00:07:32,720
Speaker 3: but uh more often than not, the lines are gonna

152
00:07:32,760 --> 00:07:35,360
Speaker 3: move towards the over, so they're gonna move up, so

153
00:07:35,720 --> 00:07:38,760
Speaker 3: you're gonna get more value, even if it's contrarian, because

154
00:07:38,800 --> 00:07:40,120
Speaker 3: a lot of people, like a guy like a lot

155
00:07:40,120 --> 00:07:43,400
Speaker 3: of times they're you know, oh, Travis Kelce, uh is

156
00:07:43,440 --> 00:07:45,600
Speaker 3: the most bet prop and you know, ninety nine percent

157
00:07:45,640 --> 00:07:48,240
Speaker 3: of the action on the over, and it'll go up,

158
00:07:48,280 --> 00:07:51,200
Speaker 3: you know, five seven yards. And Sean mentioned those are

159
00:07:51,480 --> 00:07:54,400
Speaker 3: very valuable in the prop market, and you could just

160
00:07:54,480 --> 00:07:58,120
Speaker 3: come and and bet the unders. So I think yardage

161
00:07:58,200 --> 00:08:02,920
Speaker 3: unders for the NFL, now specific yardage unders are going

162
00:08:03,000 --> 00:08:05,960
Speaker 3: to be your bread and butter more often than not

163
00:08:06,360 --> 00:08:10,800
Speaker 3: receiving rushing passing in that order and say thing for

164
00:08:10,920 --> 00:08:14,119
Speaker 3: if you're going to do like longest catcher or run

165
00:08:14,840 --> 00:08:17,920
Speaker 3: just because in the NFL, not only is there all

166
00:08:17,960 --> 00:08:20,840
Speaker 3: this randomness and unpredictability and small sample issues with the

167
00:08:21,040 --> 00:08:25,120
Speaker 3: seventeen game season and the short career spans, but you

168
00:08:25,200 --> 00:08:29,240
Speaker 3: also have the straight up injury issues that you know

169
00:08:29,600 --> 00:08:33,760
Speaker 3: more than any other sport. Guys are liable to miss

170
00:08:34,440 --> 00:08:37,600
Speaker 3: a handful of plays due to an injury. They're liable

171
00:08:37,640 --> 00:08:39,920
Speaker 3: to get hurt and miss the entirety of the game,

172
00:08:40,200 --> 00:08:42,640
Speaker 3: and then you're under cashes as long as that player

173
00:08:42,679 --> 00:08:45,040
Speaker 3: played one snap, even if it was on special teams.

174
00:08:45,280 --> 00:08:49,240
Speaker 3: So unders are going to be the way that you

175
00:08:49,360 --> 00:08:52,880
Speaker 3: make profit. Like that's that's really what Even if you

176
00:08:52,920 --> 00:08:57,160
Speaker 3: don't do anything else, well, you need to learn unders.

177
00:08:57,160 --> 00:08:59,600
Speaker 3: If you like betting overs, do that. In addition to

178
00:08:59,640 --> 00:09:04,400
Speaker 3: getting good and familiarizing yourself with unders. Volume props are

179
00:09:04,480 --> 00:09:09,240
Speaker 3: next up. Uh, those are going to volume receptions, carries,

180
00:09:09,840 --> 00:09:13,920
Speaker 3: pass completions, past attempts. Those are going to be ideal

181
00:09:14,440 --> 00:09:19,360
Speaker 3: when you expect a change in playing time, usually a

182
00:09:19,400 --> 00:09:21,679
Speaker 3: guy getting less playing time or somebody else getting more

183
00:09:21,720 --> 00:09:24,760
Speaker 3: playing time, which will then affect another player who's gonna

184
00:09:24,760 --> 00:09:27,000
Speaker 3: get less. Because again I like to target unders, but

185
00:09:27,160 --> 00:09:29,439
Speaker 3: you can do it with overs as well, especially with rookies.

186
00:09:29,640 --> 00:09:31,520
Speaker 3: Oh maybe he's gonna get more snapps this week because

187
00:09:31,520 --> 00:09:38,360
Speaker 3: of the matchup or whatnot. Categorical props, you know there

188
00:09:38,360 --> 00:09:41,640
Speaker 3: are those are a lot better to me than you know.

189
00:09:41,679 --> 00:09:43,920
Speaker 3: And when I say category, I just mean any specific

190
00:09:43,960 --> 00:09:49,400
Speaker 3: one prop, like any specific market. Receiving yards carries, target

191
00:09:49,480 --> 00:09:52,400
Speaker 3: individual markets and try to get good at maybe one

192
00:09:52,480 --> 00:09:55,439
Speaker 3: or two markets. Like maybe you just focus on receivers

193
00:09:55,440 --> 00:10:00,640
Speaker 3: and you're mostly betting on receptions and yardage things like that,

194
00:10:00,679 --> 00:10:04,319
Speaker 3: because if a lot of times what's being marketed these

195
00:10:04,440 --> 00:10:09,120
Speaker 3: days is uh, win big on same game parlays. And

196
00:10:09,240 --> 00:10:11,000
Speaker 3: don't get me wrong, those are fun as long as

197
00:10:11,080 --> 00:10:14,079
Speaker 3: you know that they're all very well likelihood to hit,

198
00:10:14,120 --> 00:10:17,480
Speaker 3: because all your bets have to hit their the correlation stats,

199
00:10:17,520 --> 00:10:21,040
Speaker 3: the odds against you, and you might have four good bets,

200
00:10:21,400 --> 00:10:24,240
Speaker 3: but you had to put it in a parlay. And

201
00:10:24,600 --> 00:10:27,559
Speaker 3: now that fifth one, you know, for whatever reason, doesn't

202
00:10:27,600 --> 00:10:29,800
Speaker 3: hit and you lost that, you lose all your bets.

203
00:10:29,840 --> 00:10:32,960
Speaker 3: So don't try to figure out how to create the

204
00:10:33,000 --> 00:10:35,640
Speaker 3: perfect same game parlay. Just try to get good at

205
00:10:35,840 --> 00:10:38,679
Speaker 3: a couple of markets, and then those parlays will naturally

206
00:10:38,960 --> 00:10:40,920
Speaker 3: come to you without you having to put much effort

207
00:10:40,920 --> 00:10:42,560
Speaker 3: in because you'll you'll just be like, oh, hey, I

208
00:10:42,679 --> 00:10:44,839
Speaker 3: like like three or four props or you know, Sean's on.

209
00:10:45,920 --> 00:10:48,839
Speaker 3: You know these four receiver props in the same game,

210
00:10:49,200 --> 00:10:51,360
Speaker 3: and they're kind of they're kind of a little correlated here,

211
00:10:51,480 --> 00:10:53,160
Speaker 3: you know, three receiver props in a quarterback or something

212
00:10:53,200 --> 00:10:56,720
Speaker 3: like that. So get good at the actual individual markets,

213
00:10:56,840 --> 00:11:00,400
Speaker 3: understand them, and and then all the other stuff will

214
00:11:00,480 --> 00:11:02,440
Speaker 3: kind of naturally come to you. And one other thing

215
00:11:02,440 --> 00:11:06,520
Speaker 3: I would say for its pillar wise is that we'll

216
00:11:06,760 --> 00:11:11,480
Speaker 3: beware of markets where you can only bet on one side.

217
00:11:11,559 --> 00:11:13,320
Speaker 3: Now what do I mean by that? Instead of it

218
00:11:13,360 --> 00:11:15,960
Speaker 3: being an over or an under, and you can bet

219
00:11:16,000 --> 00:11:19,520
Speaker 3: on either the over or the under, there's certain markets where,

220
00:11:19,960 --> 00:11:23,480
Speaker 3: for example, will a player score a touchdown, you can

221
00:11:23,559 --> 00:11:26,320
Speaker 3: only bet on the yes outcome. You can't bet on

222
00:11:26,360 --> 00:11:29,559
Speaker 3: the no outcome, those markets tend to be the odds

223
00:11:29,559 --> 00:11:32,800
Speaker 3: tend to be stacked against you even more. Uh, the

224
00:11:32,960 --> 00:11:35,920
Speaker 3: true odds tend to be inflated even more than you know,

225
00:11:36,000 --> 00:11:38,520
Speaker 3: the normal ten percent that the that the book is taking.

226
00:11:38,920 --> 00:11:41,760
Speaker 3: And because it's hard for people to kind of calculate that,

227
00:11:42,040 --> 00:11:44,280
Speaker 3: you know, when you're looking at like a whole games,

228
00:11:44,320 --> 00:11:47,040
Speaker 3: whereas a player odds for scoring a touchdown, you see

229
00:11:47,040 --> 00:11:48,719
Speaker 3: a whole bunch of you know, plus two hundred plus

230
00:11:48,760 --> 00:11:51,640
Speaker 3: three hundred, it doesn't occur to you that these those

231
00:11:51,679 --> 00:11:55,120
Speaker 3: probabilities probably add up to much more than you know,

232
00:11:55,200 --> 00:11:58,200
Speaker 3: whatever it should, and you're you're kind of just losing

233
00:11:58,280 --> 00:12:00,720
Speaker 3: value that way. So you could do it kind of

234
00:12:00,720 --> 00:12:04,000
Speaker 3: for fun and pick your spots, but in general, you

235
00:12:04,320 --> 00:12:07,559
Speaker 3: want to be picking props where you can bet either

236
00:12:07,640 --> 00:12:10,360
Speaker 3: outcome yes or a no, and that'll give you opportunities

237
00:12:10,360 --> 00:12:13,280
Speaker 3: even in rare cases to middle. If you know, for example,

238
00:12:13,480 --> 00:12:16,200
Speaker 3: you're on a guy, you like a guy, and you

239
00:12:16,240 --> 00:12:18,000
Speaker 3: pick him to go over. I know this happens with Sean.

240
00:12:18,080 --> 00:12:21,200
Speaker 3: He'll bet on some guy, some scrub to go over,

241
00:12:21,440 --> 00:12:23,440
Speaker 3: and the guy will go up ten yards and now

242
00:12:23,440 --> 00:12:26,080
Speaker 3: it's like, hey, oh, I might want to get some

243
00:12:26,120 --> 00:12:27,920
Speaker 3: action on the under now too, because the line went

244
00:12:28,000 --> 00:12:28,439
Speaker 3: up too far.

245
00:12:28,559 --> 00:12:32,479
Speaker 1: So those are my pillars. As far as the NFL property.

246
00:12:32,520 --> 00:12:34,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's a good teas for the challenges

247
00:12:34,840 --> 00:12:37,640
Speaker 2: of betting player props. I think timing is a huge factor.

248
00:12:37,679 --> 00:12:41,240
Speaker 2: I think that aspect is fascinating. The timing. Say it's

249
00:12:41,280 --> 00:12:44,920
Speaker 2: Monday morning and you're waiting or whatever. It's Friday and

250
00:12:44,960 --> 00:12:46,800
Speaker 2: you're waiting for numbers to come out for that next

251
00:12:46,800 --> 00:12:50,040
Speaker 2: Sunday or whatever, or maybe it's Wednesday waiting for Thursday

252
00:12:50,120 --> 00:12:52,280
Speaker 2: or Tuesday waiting for a Thursday night game, et cetera.

253
00:12:52,880 --> 00:12:55,000
Speaker 2: Anything to add there, Sean As far as pillars, things

254
00:12:55,000 --> 00:12:58,760
Speaker 2: that you're considering any given week, h No.

255
00:12:58,840 --> 00:13:01,760
Speaker 4: I mean just to piggyback what Raybond said in terms of,

256
00:13:02,000 --> 00:13:05,960
Speaker 4: you know, most props tend to go under, I agree

257
00:13:05,960 --> 00:13:07,960
Speaker 4: what he's talking about. Where if you look at like

258
00:13:07,960 --> 00:13:11,080
Speaker 4: the betting percentages of what percent of bets have come

259
00:13:11,080 --> 00:13:14,720
Speaker 4: in on a prop, oftentimes you'll see like, oh, ninety

260
00:13:14,760 --> 00:13:17,160
Speaker 4: nine percent of the action was on Dalton Kincaid's over.

261
00:13:17,320 --> 00:13:20,600
Speaker 4: Like everybody loves betting overs, they love rooting for overs.

262
00:13:21,080 --> 00:13:22,920
Speaker 4: So we always say you kind of want to like

263
00:13:23,000 --> 00:13:27,320
Speaker 4: embrace rooting for unders, but also just there's a lot

264
00:13:27,320 --> 00:13:30,480
Speaker 4: of underlying factors that tend to lead to unders. Again,

265
00:13:30,679 --> 00:13:34,640
Speaker 4: the lines kind of inflated and kind of digging into

266
00:13:34,640 --> 00:13:36,960
Speaker 4: the math of it. You know, if I'm projecting a

267
00:13:37,000 --> 00:13:40,720
Speaker 4: player for like eighty six receiving yards and his props,

268
00:13:40,960 --> 00:13:43,200
Speaker 4: you know, eighty six and a half, I'm actually showing

269
00:13:43,240 --> 00:13:46,000
Speaker 4: a handful of yards of value on the under because

270
00:13:46,720 --> 00:13:48,840
Speaker 4: when it comes to projections, you're looking at a guy's

271
00:13:48,880 --> 00:13:53,319
Speaker 4: season long stats, his averages, that's the average, but oftentimes

272
00:13:53,400 --> 00:13:57,360
Speaker 4: the median is actually a handful of yards lower based

273
00:13:57,400 --> 00:13:59,240
Speaker 4: on a whole host of reasons. But that's just kind

274
00:13:59,240 --> 00:14:03,679
Speaker 4: of how something like yards are distributed. So typically I

275
00:14:03,679 --> 00:14:07,240
Speaker 4: think that the market actually overlooks that. But also there's

276
00:14:07,280 --> 00:14:09,360
Speaker 4: just way more outs when it comes to the under

277
00:14:09,800 --> 00:14:11,840
Speaker 4: rayvaugh mentioned, they could leave the game due to an injury,

278
00:14:11,840 --> 00:14:14,800
Speaker 4: they could leave the game due to ejection, a benching.

279
00:14:15,240 --> 00:14:17,720
Speaker 4: There's just a whole other host of reasons why someone

280
00:14:17,760 --> 00:14:19,880
Speaker 4: would leave the game early. So there's a lot more

281
00:14:19,880 --> 00:14:21,920
Speaker 4: outs when it comes to unders, and I think the

282
00:14:21,960 --> 00:14:24,400
Speaker 4: market tends to overlook that, and they're you know, they

283
00:14:24,440 --> 00:14:26,800
Speaker 4: want they want to root on a guy catching the

284
00:14:26,840 --> 00:14:28,560
Speaker 4: ball and getting yards and things like that. So I

285
00:14:28,560 --> 00:14:31,800
Speaker 4: think it's just coming to kind of embrace why that

286
00:14:31,960 --> 00:14:35,640
Speaker 4: is and just realizing that more times than not there's

287
00:14:35,680 --> 00:14:37,040
Speaker 4: going to be value on the under.

288
00:14:38,120 --> 00:14:41,960
Speaker 2: Let's dive into challenges to betting player props against sides

289
00:14:41,960 --> 00:14:44,240
Speaker 2: and totals. And Chris kind of adhered to this earlier

290
00:14:44,280 --> 00:14:46,720
Speaker 2: about you know, sides and totals. The books are a

291
00:14:47,240 --> 00:14:50,520
Speaker 2: bit more on it across the board, but when there's

292
00:14:50,680 --> 00:14:53,920
Speaker 2: edges earlier in a week, Chris like, I almost I'm

293
00:14:53,920 --> 00:14:55,720
Speaker 2: just I'm just thinking of this example now. But when

294
00:14:55,760 --> 00:14:58,280
Speaker 2: you first learned how to write a five paragraph essay

295
00:14:58,280 --> 00:15:00,760
Speaker 2: when you were in middle school, you ask yourself the

296
00:15:00,840 --> 00:15:02,920
Speaker 2: questions of who, what, when, where, and why. So I

297
00:15:02,920 --> 00:15:04,640
Speaker 2: got the who, I got the player in mind, I

298
00:15:04,640 --> 00:15:08,000
Speaker 2: got the what, the receiving yards or rushing yards or

299
00:15:08,000 --> 00:15:11,440
Speaker 2: receptions whatever carries. Okay, now the when. And I think

300
00:15:11,600 --> 00:15:13,000
Speaker 2: a lot of this what you're about to get to

301
00:15:13,160 --> 00:15:15,680
Speaker 2: is it factors into timing. I think that's what make

302
00:15:15,760 --> 00:15:19,280
Speaker 2: confuse a better. When's the right time to fire? And

303
00:15:19,280 --> 00:15:21,320
Speaker 2: there are a lot of aspects into the challenges of that.

304
00:15:22,360 --> 00:15:24,000
Speaker 3: Well, First of all, most of my writing in middle

305
00:15:24,000 --> 00:15:26,640
Speaker 3: school is actually in detention. They would make us write

306
00:15:26,800 --> 00:15:29,840
Speaker 3: like five hundred of the same sentence like I will

307
00:15:29,880 --> 00:15:33,040
Speaker 3: not talk in class, I will not misbehave in class,

308
00:15:33,080 --> 00:15:35,680
Speaker 3: I will not be an absolute idiot to the teacher,

309
00:15:36,040 --> 00:15:38,560
Speaker 3: things like that. So I don't know about that other stuff.

310
00:15:38,640 --> 00:15:43,160
Speaker 3: Yeah right, But you know, in all seriousness, I'll get

311
00:15:43,200 --> 00:15:47,200
Speaker 3: into some you know, tech technical things that are challenging

312
00:15:47,320 --> 00:15:49,720
Speaker 3: when betting player pots, But I think I would say

313
00:15:49,960 --> 00:15:53,040
Speaker 3: the most in the biggest challenge, the biggest challenge that

314
00:15:53,640 --> 00:15:56,520
Speaker 3: listeners are going to encounter, that that prop betters are

315
00:15:56,520 --> 00:16:01,280
Speaker 3: going to encounter, is their own biases. Because you know,

316
00:16:01,480 --> 00:16:05,240
Speaker 3: we both already talked about how unders are generally going

317
00:16:05,280 --> 00:16:09,080
Speaker 3: to be more profitable, and a lot of times with that,

318
00:16:09,680 --> 00:16:11,320
Speaker 3: it's just a lot of people it just doesn't come

319
00:16:11,400 --> 00:16:13,320
Speaker 3: naturally to bet on it under a lot of times

320
00:16:13,560 --> 00:16:15,960
Speaker 3: when I see people that are a bit newer to

321
00:16:16,000 --> 00:16:19,400
Speaker 3: the betting space and thank you, you know, hop on board,

322
00:16:19,520 --> 00:16:21,720
Speaker 3: glad to have you. But a lot of times what

323
00:16:21,800 --> 00:16:25,720
Speaker 3: I see is they'll say, oh, this guy is absolutely

324
00:16:25,760 --> 00:16:27,920
Speaker 3: going to go off today, He's got a great matchup,

325
00:16:28,480 --> 00:16:31,160
Speaker 3: and they so they tend to only even think about

326
00:16:31,240 --> 00:16:34,520
Speaker 3: betting a player prop when they think that player is

327
00:16:34,560 --> 00:16:35,840
Speaker 3: going to do something good.

328
00:16:36,400 --> 00:16:38,400
Speaker 1: And you know, related to that is.

329
00:16:38,840 --> 00:16:40,800
Speaker 3: I've heard other people say, well, you know, it's no

330
00:16:40,880 --> 00:16:43,400
Speaker 3: fun to root for a guy to go under, it's

331
00:16:43,440 --> 00:16:45,800
Speaker 3: no fun to root for a guy to fail or whatnot.

332
00:16:45,800 --> 00:16:48,800
Speaker 3: But it's don't think of it like that, because with biases,

333
00:16:48,840 --> 00:16:52,480
Speaker 3: you have to kind of trick your mind into looking

334
00:16:52,520 --> 00:16:53,600
Speaker 3: at it a different way.

335
00:16:53,800 --> 00:16:56,160
Speaker 2: Chris too. The other thing, some people might go into

336
00:16:56,160 --> 00:16:59,120
Speaker 2: a game and think that guy absolutely sucks, and maybe

337
00:16:59,120 --> 00:17:00,160
Speaker 2: it could actually go the other.

338
00:17:00,520 --> 00:17:03,960
Speaker 3: In those situations, because here's the thing with unders underdogs,

339
00:17:04,000 --> 00:17:07,120
Speaker 3: even if you're just betting regular when there's a trendy

340
00:17:07,800 --> 00:17:11,640
Speaker 3: under a trendy underdog, when it's too obvious, those are

341
00:17:11,680 --> 00:17:13,880
Speaker 3: probably the ones that you want to stay away from

342
00:17:13,880 --> 00:17:17,280
Speaker 3: because usually on any given slate, there will be like

343
00:17:17,440 --> 00:17:20,920
Speaker 3: one spot where it's like, Okay, this guy's gonna struggle,

344
00:17:21,160 --> 00:17:24,160
Speaker 3: and everyone's kind of piling on that line, but then

345
00:17:24,640 --> 00:17:26,919
Speaker 3: that makes the line go down and then you're you're

346
00:17:26,960 --> 00:17:30,240
Speaker 3: getting squeezed for value. So you know, in general, you

347
00:17:30,240 --> 00:17:32,000
Speaker 3: want to kind of open it up to be prepared

348
00:17:32,040 --> 00:17:34,280
Speaker 3: to bet any type of under But with the thing

349
00:17:34,320 --> 00:17:36,399
Speaker 3: about betting unders, in the way that it can be

350
00:17:36,440 --> 00:17:42,560
Speaker 3: fun is because let's say you're betting on Stefan Diggs

351
00:17:42,880 --> 00:17:46,480
Speaker 3: under sixty five and a half receiving yards. When you're

352
00:17:46,520 --> 00:17:51,360
Speaker 3: watching that Texans game, whoever they're playing, you're literally rooting

353
00:17:51,680 --> 00:17:55,800
Speaker 3: for every other player on the Texans offense to have

354
00:17:55,880 --> 00:17:58,679
Speaker 3: a good game. You're rooting for the Texans to have

355
00:17:58,720 --> 00:18:00,960
Speaker 3: a good game and blow the other team out, so they.

356
00:18:00,840 --> 00:18:02,120
Speaker 1: Don't even have to pass that much.

357
00:18:02,240 --> 00:18:05,280
Speaker 3: You can literally root for pretty much any other action

358
00:18:05,480 --> 00:18:08,480
Speaker 3: to happen besides that one thing that you need to

359
00:18:08,520 --> 00:18:11,720
Speaker 3: go under. So that's kind of the way I think, Yeah,

360
00:18:11,840 --> 00:18:14,880
Speaker 3: you know, to to kind of acquivate yourself and get

361
00:18:14,880 --> 00:18:17,280
Speaker 3: comfortable with unders. But some of the other challenges is

362
00:18:17,320 --> 00:18:20,679
Speaker 3: to list them off really quick. Lines are up for

363
00:18:20,720 --> 00:18:23,600
Speaker 3: a shorter duration of time. It's not like sides and

364
00:18:23,600 --> 00:18:26,679
Speaker 3: totals where they come out like that Sunday afternoon for

365
00:18:26,760 --> 00:18:29,919
Speaker 3: the next week. Like these props for Sunday usually come

366
00:18:29,920 --> 00:18:33,919
Speaker 3: out maybe Thursday night, Friday night after that final injury report. Uh,

367
00:18:34,359 --> 00:18:37,320
Speaker 3: you also need the side and total knowledge and then

368
00:18:37,640 --> 00:18:39,760
Speaker 3: you know some player specific knowledge on top of that.

369
00:18:40,280 --> 00:18:41,320
Speaker 1: The lines move faster.

370
00:18:41,400 --> 00:18:43,520
Speaker 3: As we've talked about, they could come off the board

371
00:18:43,800 --> 00:18:46,240
Speaker 3: if they're too you know, if they're if they're really bad,

372
00:18:46,280 --> 00:18:49,800
Speaker 3: which happens a lot less frequently with size and totals,

373
00:18:50,240 --> 00:18:53,280
Speaker 3: limits are lower so that you'll probably if you if

374
00:18:53,280 --> 00:18:57,840
Speaker 3: you're having success, you're almost gonna need to have multiple

375
00:18:57,840 --> 00:18:59,680
Speaker 3: accounts after a while, or you're not gonna be able

376
00:18:59,720 --> 00:19:02,400
Speaker 3: to get enough of your bank roll down on when

377
00:19:02,440 --> 00:19:05,520
Speaker 3: you see an edge. Injuries are going to impact not

378
00:19:05,720 --> 00:19:08,680
Speaker 3: just you know, the injured player in question, but there's

379
00:19:08,680 --> 00:19:11,640
Speaker 3: gonna be a cascade effect where it impacts.

380
00:19:11,240 --> 00:19:12,360
Speaker 1: You know, a whole bunch of other guys.

381
00:19:12,400 --> 00:19:14,480
Speaker 3: There could be correlations, and then you just kind of

382
00:19:14,520 --> 00:19:17,359
Speaker 3: need to know be aware of, you know, individuals, things

383
00:19:17,359 --> 00:19:21,520
Speaker 3: that could just apply only to that matchup. You know, weather, motivation,

384
00:19:22,680 --> 00:19:24,479
Speaker 3: you know, things that may have been said in the media,

385
00:19:25,040 --> 00:19:26,320
Speaker 3: just all types of things like that.

386
00:19:26,359 --> 00:19:29,280
Speaker 1: So those are some of the challenges in my eyes.

387
00:19:30,480 --> 00:19:32,760
Speaker 2: I would imagine in two decades of doing this, there

388
00:19:32,800 --> 00:19:34,760
Speaker 2: must have been a challenger too along the way.

389
00:19:35,480 --> 00:19:39,760
Speaker 4: Sean just getting better at it. But I'm gonna flip

390
00:19:39,800 --> 00:19:43,440
Speaker 4: this on its head, you know, I embrace the challenges

391
00:19:43,440 --> 00:19:48,359
Speaker 4: that props provide. I actually think it's easier to hone

392
00:19:48,359 --> 00:19:51,200
Speaker 4: in on projections when it comes to props as opposed

393
00:19:51,240 --> 00:19:54,720
Speaker 4: to sides and totals, because it's more of a direct outcome,

394
00:19:55,640 --> 00:19:58,800
Speaker 4: So you're you're only projecting how that specific player will

395
00:19:58,800 --> 00:20:02,280
Speaker 4: do on that specific stat, not the entire team. You

396
00:20:02,720 --> 00:20:05,760
Speaker 4: introduce a lot more variables when you include the entire team.

397
00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:08,160
Speaker 4: So when it comes to player props, you know, I'm

398
00:20:08,160 --> 00:20:11,719
Speaker 4: pretty honed in on that exact stat, that exact player

399
00:20:12,480 --> 00:20:15,600
Speaker 4: that I'm much more confident in what my projected percent

400
00:20:16,359 --> 00:20:19,680
Speaker 4: perceived edge would be. So I think that it actually

401
00:20:19,760 --> 00:20:21,640
Speaker 4: lends to props. And why I love him so much

402
00:20:22,200 --> 00:20:24,760
Speaker 4: is you just you're of a better handle on what

403
00:20:24,760 --> 00:20:28,240
Speaker 4: you're actually projecting. And you know, sometimes I can have

404
00:20:28,280 --> 00:20:30,760
Speaker 4: an angle on a side total get it right, but

405
00:20:30,960 --> 00:20:33,760
Speaker 4: you know there's some wacky, unpredictable play that leads to

406
00:20:33,800 --> 00:20:37,040
Speaker 4: a different outcome, And that can certainly happen when it

407
00:20:37,080 --> 00:20:39,240
Speaker 4: comes to player props, but it's a little bit less

408
00:20:39,240 --> 00:20:41,760
Speaker 4: common in our discord. I have come up with the

409
00:20:41,840 --> 00:20:45,359
Speaker 4: term for this, called the Angeloni effect. There was a game,

410
00:20:45,520 --> 00:20:48,760
Speaker 4: it was the Bears Lions. I was saying that Alex

411
00:20:49,040 --> 00:20:51,639
Speaker 4: Angeloni was playing out of his mind. He was really

412
00:20:51,680 --> 00:20:54,400
Speaker 4: good at spying you know rushing quarterbacks, and I thought

413
00:20:54,400 --> 00:20:56,880
Speaker 4: the Lions had a pretty good game plan to slow

414
00:20:56,920 --> 00:20:59,840
Speaker 4: down Justin Field's and the Bears offense, and that's exactly

415
00:20:59,880 --> 00:21:02,879
Speaker 4: what happened. He had like fifteen plus tackles in that game,

416
00:21:03,640 --> 00:21:06,160
Speaker 4: but there was like a muff punt return for a touchdown,

417
00:21:06,160 --> 00:21:09,399
Speaker 4: a pick six, another fumble, like all these wacky plays

418
00:21:09,400 --> 00:21:11,679
Speaker 4: that you know, the game went way over uh, And

419
00:21:11,720 --> 00:21:13,359
Speaker 4: I was just like, I should have just bet on

420
00:21:13,440 --> 00:21:16,080
Speaker 4: alex Anzeloni over you know, eight and a half tackles.

421
00:21:16,680 --> 00:21:19,560
Speaker 4: So sometimes you can get a player prop exactly right

422
00:21:20,119 --> 00:21:22,200
Speaker 4: and you know it doesn't have an impact on the game.

423
00:21:22,240 --> 00:21:25,600
Speaker 4: I just think that the unique thing with props is,

424
00:21:26,359 --> 00:21:28,800
Speaker 4: you know, I'm a very matfy guy. It's it's easier

425
00:21:28,840 --> 00:21:31,560
Speaker 4: to actually hone in on the variables needed and you're

426
00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:34,440
Speaker 4: you know, you're betting on a specific outcomes. I think

427
00:21:34,480 --> 00:21:37,120
Speaker 4: you have more control over your process when it comes

428
00:21:37,160 --> 00:21:37,639
Speaker 4: to props.

429
00:21:39,160 --> 00:21:40,959
Speaker 2: You are consistent on this. I mean I don't have

430
00:21:41,000 --> 00:21:43,199
Speaker 2: specific examples at the top of my head, but just

431
00:21:43,240 --> 00:21:45,919
Speaker 2: thinking back to when you would give out a particular play,

432
00:21:46,600 --> 00:21:48,880
Speaker 2: and I think at the standalone games most because there's

433
00:21:48,880 --> 00:21:51,280
Speaker 2: just a lot of other games on Sunday. But yeah,

434
00:21:51,320 --> 00:21:54,040
Speaker 2: you're you're consistent on this. You're you're you're you eliminate

435
00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:56,320
Speaker 2: the fluff to kind of and you're kind of in

436
00:21:56,359 --> 00:21:59,320
Speaker 2: some ways you're you're you're countering Ray Bawd's initial takes

437
00:21:59,359 --> 00:22:02,960
Speaker 2: on the challenges. But I think that's a fair counterpoint

438
00:22:03,240 --> 00:22:06,040
Speaker 2: or another way of looking at it. This kind of

439
00:22:06,119 --> 00:22:11,240
Speaker 2: blends well into our next talking point, which is important tools, resources,

440
00:22:11,320 --> 00:22:15,040
Speaker 2: data points that you use each day throughout the course

441
00:22:15,119 --> 00:22:18,159
Speaker 2: of an eighteen week season. What should ray boon what

442
00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:20,760
Speaker 2: should be the better's toolkit if you will.

443
00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:23,160
Speaker 1: Well, the first thing you're gonna need is.

444
00:22:25,160 --> 00:22:29,119
Speaker 3: Something that gives you a bird's eye view of all

445
00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:33,360
Speaker 3: the different lines available, so all the different props out there.

446
00:22:33,720 --> 00:22:36,159
Speaker 3: I love using the Action Network app for that. We

447
00:22:36,200 --> 00:22:40,639
Speaker 3: also have our Props tool on Action Labs that not

448
00:22:40,680 --> 00:22:43,440
Speaker 3: only has the lines and at different sites, but also

449
00:22:43,520 --> 00:22:48,040
Speaker 3: has Sean or I or whoever's doing the projections there

450
00:22:48,119 --> 00:22:51,000
Speaker 3: and the projected edge that's also in the app as well.

451
00:22:51,800 --> 00:22:54,600
Speaker 3: Action Network also just has a props page where you

452
00:22:54,600 --> 00:22:56,600
Speaker 3: can just kind of like an odds page, so you

453
00:22:56,640 --> 00:22:59,600
Speaker 3: always want to kind of be aware of the different

454
00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:03,440
Speaker 3: lines out there, and you know, see all the different

455
00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:07,200
Speaker 3: lines at the different sites at at your fingertips so

456
00:23:07,240 --> 00:23:09,479
Speaker 3: that you can, you know, choose the best one, or

457
00:23:09,560 --> 00:23:10,760
Speaker 3: you know, maybe you're waiting for it to hit a

458
00:23:10,800 --> 00:23:13,080
Speaker 3: specific number or or it's moving or something. So you

459
00:23:13,119 --> 00:23:15,040
Speaker 3: always want to kind of be aware of what's out there.

460
00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:19,600
Speaker 3: You're gonna need starting lineups, depth charts, injury new up

461
00:23:19,600 --> 00:23:23,040
Speaker 3: to date injury news, NFL injury reports are very important,

462
00:23:23,760 --> 00:23:26,320
Speaker 3: you know, because you know that's a lot of times

463
00:23:26,640 --> 00:23:30,160
Speaker 3: going to affect a lot of different players and their

464
00:23:30,200 --> 00:23:33,240
Speaker 3: prop outcomes. You know, if a left let's say Andrew

465
00:23:33,280 --> 00:23:36,399
Speaker 3: Thomas is out for the Giants, Daniel Jones may not

466
00:23:36,480 --> 00:23:39,000
Speaker 3: have time to go deep to Jay and Hyatt, So

467
00:23:39,040 --> 00:23:41,200
Speaker 3: this is probably not the time to better Jay and

468
00:23:41,280 --> 00:23:42,200
Speaker 3: Hyatt over.

469
00:23:42,359 --> 00:23:43,920
Speaker 1: I don't know if it was ever the time last year,

470
00:23:43,960 --> 00:23:44,800
Speaker 1: to be honest.

471
00:23:44,640 --> 00:23:47,600
Speaker 3: But you know, things like that, you're also going to

472
00:23:47,680 --> 00:23:50,800
Speaker 3: need some kind of if you're doing this yourself or

473
00:23:50,840 --> 00:23:53,359
Speaker 3: if you're not just kind of following like an expert

474
00:23:53,440 --> 00:23:56,480
Speaker 3: like Sean Rye and just tailing, you're gonna need access

475
00:23:56,520 --> 00:24:01,200
Speaker 3: to some source of player data because as you're researching props,

476
00:24:01,320 --> 00:24:04,600
Speaker 3: you're going to have like a key question, like you know,

477
00:24:04,680 --> 00:24:06,720
Speaker 3: Sean kind of alluded to it, like there's all these

478
00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:10,240
Speaker 3: different challenges and they can be really fun, and but

479
00:24:10,280 --> 00:24:10,800
Speaker 3: there's gonna be.

480
00:24:10,800 --> 00:24:11,399
Speaker 1: A key question.

481
00:24:11,520 --> 00:24:15,640
Speaker 3: Usually it's okay, so I'm thinking about betting Roshawn Johnson's

482
00:24:15,840 --> 00:24:18,280
Speaker 3: carries over and it's at six and a half.

483
00:24:18,320 --> 00:24:19,600
Speaker 1: Well, you're probably.

484
00:24:19,359 --> 00:24:21,560
Speaker 3: Gonna want to know how many times he got you know,

485
00:24:21,600 --> 00:24:23,760
Speaker 3: seven or more carries or and maybe how much how

486
00:24:23,760 --> 00:24:26,280
Speaker 3: many times he got that when Chicago was favored. So

487
00:24:26,760 --> 00:24:28,760
Speaker 3: I like to I like the sports reference sites if

488
00:24:28,760 --> 00:24:30,879
Speaker 3: you just want you know, raw data that's easy to

489
00:24:31,000 --> 00:24:35,560
Speaker 3: you know, copy and paste. Always have a spreadsheet open. Personally,

490
00:24:35,720 --> 00:24:38,240
Speaker 3: I just love copy and pasting things. Doing some quick math.

491
00:24:38,440 --> 00:24:42,160
Speaker 3: You could easily highlight, filter, sort, you know, you could.

492
00:24:42,200 --> 00:24:45,520
Speaker 3: You could do different formulas and create little mini models.

493
00:24:45,840 --> 00:24:48,880
Speaker 3: I like to call them quickly for a specific outcome,

494
00:24:49,119 --> 00:24:51,240
Speaker 3: so you don't have to go and you know, be

495
00:24:51,359 --> 00:24:53,880
Speaker 3: modeling the entire league like uh, you.

496
00:24:53,800 --> 00:24:55,280
Speaker 1: Know us crazy people over here.

497
00:24:55,840 --> 00:24:59,560
Speaker 3: Also, uh, just normal betting tools that that people might

498
00:24:59,600 --> 00:25:03,119
Speaker 3: overlook like an odds converter. So for example, we have

499
00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:05,920
Speaker 3: a tool on the app where and there are many

500
00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:08,639
Speaker 3: of these out there on online as well. And we

501
00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:10,120
Speaker 3: have it on Action network dot com as well, where

502
00:25:10,119 --> 00:25:12,560
Speaker 3: you could just type in minus one fifty and it'll

503
00:25:12,560 --> 00:25:15,680
Speaker 3: tell you that that's a sixty percent implied probability.

504
00:25:16,440 --> 00:25:18,960
Speaker 1: You could also, you know, do that with.

505
00:25:20,320 --> 00:25:24,000
Speaker 3: Like multiple bets for parways and calculate the odds for

506
00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:26,880
Speaker 3: a parway if you enter multiple bets. So just kind

507
00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:31,159
Speaker 3: of understanding those kind of raw things and having tools

508
00:25:31,160 --> 00:25:35,200
Speaker 3: for those so and then data points. You also want

509
00:25:35,200 --> 00:25:37,120
Speaker 3: to know the just the vegas lines for the game

510
00:25:37,119 --> 00:25:39,119
Speaker 3: in question, even if you're not betting a side or total,

511
00:25:39,240 --> 00:25:42,160
Speaker 3: because the game script is very important in the NFL.

512
00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:45,119
Speaker 3: You know, when a team is a favorite, they're going

513
00:25:45,160 --> 00:25:47,520
Speaker 3: to be in more positive game script will probably run more,

514
00:25:48,359 --> 00:25:49,920
Speaker 3: so that that's something to kind of keep in mind.

515
00:25:49,960 --> 00:25:52,240
Speaker 3: They'll probably pass less but could be more efficient doing so.

516
00:25:53,240 --> 00:25:57,480
Speaker 3: For receiving props, we both really love to look at

517
00:25:57,560 --> 00:26:01,760
Speaker 3: route data average up to target target per route market share,

518
00:26:01,840 --> 00:26:05,560
Speaker 3: like target market share on his team for air yards,

519
00:26:05,600 --> 00:26:09,600
Speaker 3: for red zone, deep target, things like that. Rushing props,

520
00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:12,159
Speaker 3: snap rates are very important running back to need to

521
00:26:12,200 --> 00:26:14,600
Speaker 3: be on the field in the in a lot of

522
00:26:14,640 --> 00:26:17,119
Speaker 3: times it's situational. You know, there's early down guys that

523
00:26:17,320 --> 00:26:19,320
Speaker 3: would benefit you know, when their team is favored, there's

524
00:26:19,520 --> 00:26:22,520
Speaker 3: more passing down hurry up guy backs that will benefit

525
00:26:22,560 --> 00:26:24,600
Speaker 3: more when their team is projected to be an underdog

526
00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:29,280
Speaker 3: and trail more. And then for quarterbacks quarterback, I don't

527
00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:33,280
Speaker 3: find the their lines to be as to have as

528
00:26:33,320 --> 00:26:35,679
Speaker 3: much of an edge. You know, Sean, maybe you'll feel different,

529
00:26:35,720 --> 00:26:39,040
Speaker 3: but I find that they're a little sharper because quarterbacks

530
00:26:39,080 --> 00:26:41,439
Speaker 3: are a little less volatile, more easy to project. But

531
00:26:42,119 --> 00:26:45,720
Speaker 3: you want to, I think, have an understanding of pressure rates,

532
00:26:46,080 --> 00:26:48,199
Speaker 3: what they do under pressure? Do they scramble? That can

533
00:26:48,240 --> 00:26:50,640
Speaker 3: help with their rushing props, but take away from their passing.

534
00:26:51,680 --> 00:26:54,440
Speaker 3: You want to understand their sack rate. They're how much

535
00:26:54,520 --> 00:26:56,479
Speaker 3: you know, how many times when they're pressure do they

536
00:26:56,480 --> 00:26:57,080
Speaker 3: get sacked?

537
00:26:57,160 --> 00:26:58,320
Speaker 1: Their average you have to target.

538
00:26:58,320 --> 00:27:01,399
Speaker 3: The deeper you throw down field, the less efficient you'll be,

539
00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:02,880
Speaker 3: but the higher upside.

540
00:27:03,320 --> 00:27:04,919
Speaker 1: You know, just normal efficiency stats and.

541
00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:08,640
Speaker 3: Then defensive stats and tendencies, so you know how often

542
00:27:08,720 --> 00:27:13,240
Speaker 3: the defense get pressure, blitz man coverage, zone coverage, and

543
00:27:13,280 --> 00:27:18,119
Speaker 3: then finally you know some idea of offensive line. You

544
00:27:18,160 --> 00:27:20,760
Speaker 3: know PFF for example, does the player grades and has

545
00:27:21,200 --> 00:27:24,400
Speaker 3: pressure sack allowed data because a lot of times that's

546
00:27:24,440 --> 00:27:27,520
Speaker 3: where you're gonna find the biggest edge is in the trenches,

547
00:27:27,560 --> 00:27:32,320
Speaker 3: because it's just not something that the average, even hardcore

548
00:27:32,440 --> 00:27:35,720
Speaker 3: NFL fan maybe is really looking at and taking into

549
00:27:35,760 --> 00:27:38,240
Speaker 3: account when betting prop. So you can really get a

550
00:27:38,280 --> 00:27:42,679
Speaker 3: big edge by understanding, you know, the offensive line, defensive line, pressures, schemes,

551
00:27:42,720 --> 00:27:43,680
Speaker 3: thing things like that.

552
00:27:44,840 --> 00:27:46,439
Speaker 2: Sean, I know, you don't want to give away too

553
00:27:46,480 --> 00:27:48,280
Speaker 2: much in terms of how you do your process and

554
00:27:48,320 --> 00:27:50,080
Speaker 2: how you would say so a lot of times when

555
00:27:50,119 --> 00:27:52,040
Speaker 2: you give out a prop during the season, you would say,

556
00:27:52,080 --> 00:27:54,879
Speaker 2: I actually make this line here, I actually project this

557
00:27:55,000 --> 00:27:57,800
Speaker 2: many catches, or I actually project this many runs or

558
00:27:57,880 --> 00:28:00,320
Speaker 2: this many yards for a particular player, whether it be

559
00:28:00,359 --> 00:28:03,200
Speaker 2: a longest rush or total yards, all those kinds of examples.

560
00:28:04,119 --> 00:28:07,280
Speaker 2: So but for the for the listener, what can they

561
00:28:07,280 --> 00:28:09,880
Speaker 2: do at a bare minimum, what can they do to

562
00:28:09,920 --> 00:28:13,280
Speaker 2: for their process. To Chris's points about tools, resources and

563
00:28:13,320 --> 00:28:14,639
Speaker 2: data points.

564
00:28:14,560 --> 00:28:17,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, Raybond already mentioned it, but I think our you know,

565
00:28:17,720 --> 00:28:20,520
Speaker 4: Action Labs Player prop tool is probably the best starting

566
00:28:20,560 --> 00:28:23,360
Speaker 4: point because again you get to see our projections where

567
00:28:23,359 --> 00:28:25,520
Speaker 4: we're showing an edge. You can see you know, all

568
00:28:25,520 --> 00:28:28,840
Speaker 4: the different sports books where they have the prop. Plus

569
00:28:28,880 --> 00:28:31,520
Speaker 4: you know, you, I I usually do go under the hood,

570
00:28:31,560 --> 00:28:34,400
Speaker 4: and I usually go for my exact process when I'm

571
00:28:34,440 --> 00:28:36,560
Speaker 4: giving out a prop. So if you were to listen

572
00:28:36,600 --> 00:28:39,120
Speaker 4: to us giving out props, whether it's on a show

573
00:28:39,320 --> 00:28:42,000
Speaker 4: or in an article, we're actually laying out exactly why

574
00:28:42,000 --> 00:28:43,840
Speaker 4: we're arriving at it. So you can kind of learn

575
00:28:44,240 --> 00:28:46,760
Speaker 4: through that, you know, kind of our process, because every prop,

576
00:28:46,800 --> 00:28:48,640
Speaker 4: you know it's going to be a different type of approach.

577
00:28:49,280 --> 00:28:51,800
Speaker 4: But if you start doing it on your own, I

578
00:28:51,840 --> 00:28:54,320
Speaker 4: think that when it comes to, you know, diving into

579
00:28:54,800 --> 00:28:57,000
Speaker 4: player prop betting, it's important to realize that there's no

580
00:28:57,440 --> 00:28:59,320
Speaker 4: real right or wrong way to do it. I mean,

581
00:28:59,440 --> 00:29:02,480
Speaker 4: I go, I make you know, projections for every player,

582
00:29:02,520 --> 00:29:05,480
Speaker 4: every stat every week. You don't necessarily necessarily have to

583
00:29:05,520 --> 00:29:08,240
Speaker 4: do that. But when you start your process, you don't

584
00:29:08,280 --> 00:29:11,440
Speaker 4: necessarily have to bet. You know, right out of the bat,

585
00:29:11,520 --> 00:29:14,240
Speaker 4: you know, you can just track where you might be,

586
00:29:14,480 --> 00:29:17,640
Speaker 4: you know, betting based on whatever your process is going,

587
00:29:17,640 --> 00:29:19,680
Speaker 4: because you don't want to get trapped into, you know,

588
00:29:19,760 --> 00:29:22,240
Speaker 4: getting tilted that you lost you know, three bets and

589
00:29:22,240 --> 00:29:24,840
Speaker 4: then you start panicking and that's how you get in trouble.

590
00:29:24,880 --> 00:29:26,880
Speaker 4: So I think it's okay to just track the bets

591
00:29:27,240 --> 00:29:29,720
Speaker 4: initially honing in on your process, and don't get too

592
00:29:29,760 --> 00:29:33,120
Speaker 4: caught up in the initial results. You might see that

593
00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:35,160
Speaker 4: you would have had a winning week, don't worry about it.

594
00:29:35,800 --> 00:29:37,920
Speaker 4: Even if you know you find that, oh my god,

595
00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:40,960
Speaker 4: like I'd be a really I'd be down seven units

596
00:29:41,040 --> 00:29:43,240
Speaker 4: right now if I went with this process. Learn from

597
00:29:43,240 --> 00:29:45,840
Speaker 4: your mistakes. Every time I lose a bet, I kind

598
00:29:45,840 --> 00:29:48,000
Speaker 4: of go back and I look at did I do

599
00:29:48,040 --> 00:29:51,719
Speaker 4: something wrong? Was the process sound? So you're just going

600
00:29:51,840 --> 00:29:55,600
Speaker 4: off experience. You're honing on your own unique approach. That's

601
00:29:55,600 --> 00:29:58,520
Speaker 4: why I'm saying there's no right or wrong way. But

602
00:29:58,600 --> 00:30:00,480
Speaker 4: over time, I think you're gonna get better and better

603
00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:03,840
Speaker 4: with that. And you know, as as raybon mentioned, I

604
00:30:03,840 --> 00:30:06,160
Speaker 4: think that if you do want to take a player

605
00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:10,200
Speaker 4: projection approach, I think something like PFF is a great

606
00:30:10,240 --> 00:30:13,320
Speaker 4: resource because they do have things like routs, run data

607
00:30:13,880 --> 00:30:17,960
Speaker 4: man versus zone things like that, so you know, you

608
00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:21,200
Speaker 4: don't always have to just start making projections. You can

609
00:30:21,280 --> 00:30:24,680
Speaker 4: kind of ease in whatever you know, skill set you

610
00:30:24,680 --> 00:30:26,560
Speaker 4: think you have and go from there.

611
00:30:27,760 --> 00:30:27,960
Speaker 1: Yeah.

612
00:30:28,200 --> 00:30:29,960
Speaker 2: I mean kind of like what Raybond said earlier about

613
00:30:30,000 --> 00:30:32,080
Speaker 2: the challenges, like you have your own bias. So I'm

614
00:30:32,080 --> 00:30:34,440
Speaker 2: not trying to tell people not to just listen to

615
00:30:34,480 --> 00:30:36,680
Speaker 2: Sean and listen to Chris and just you know, Sean

616
00:30:36,720 --> 00:30:38,360
Speaker 2: and Chris like this, so I'm gonna do it too.

617
00:30:38,560 --> 00:30:41,720
Speaker 2: I think betters, new betters, and even normal betters, they

618
00:30:41,760 --> 00:30:43,840
Speaker 2: want to put their fingerprints on the bet too. And

619
00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:46,240
Speaker 2: that's why it's key that you guys give some insights

620
00:30:46,240 --> 00:30:49,000
Speaker 2: as to how. And Raybond did a really nice job

621
00:30:49,000 --> 00:30:53,760
Speaker 2: of mapping out what is available to a better, whether

622
00:30:53,800 --> 00:30:56,520
Speaker 2: it's a new better or an experience better to get information,

623
00:30:57,440 --> 00:30:59,200
Speaker 2: it's just a matter of well, I don't want to

624
00:30:59,200 --> 00:31:01,040
Speaker 2: just bet it because Chris Raybon's betting it. I want

625
00:31:01,040 --> 00:31:02,640
Speaker 2: to put the time in in the resource and I

626
00:31:02,640 --> 00:31:04,960
Speaker 2: want to find the resources too to feel like I'm

627
00:31:05,040 --> 00:31:08,560
Speaker 2: educated and I know what I'm doing. So that's good stuff. Also,

628
00:31:08,640 --> 00:31:11,040
Speaker 2: another great way to just get inside on on Sean

629
00:31:11,120 --> 00:31:13,640
Speaker 2: Kerner is you can join him on the discussion in

630
00:31:13,680 --> 00:31:16,160
Speaker 2: the Action Network discord channel. So you can follow the

631
00:31:16,200 --> 00:31:19,520
Speaker 2: link to the Action Network Discord channel. In the episode

632
00:31:19,520 --> 00:31:21,520
Speaker 2: description should have said that off the top, so that's

633
00:31:21,520 --> 00:31:23,600
Speaker 2: available to you as well. And Sean is, oh, he's

634
00:31:23,680 --> 00:31:25,440
Speaker 2: chatty in there. He might not hear his voice, but

635
00:31:25,560 --> 00:31:27,560
Speaker 2: he types away in there. He's he's a man of

636
00:31:27,560 --> 00:31:30,400
Speaker 2: the people in that discord channel. You Nick Giffin. I

637
00:31:30,400 --> 00:31:31,800
Speaker 2: don't want to leave people out, but you guys are

638
00:31:31,840 --> 00:31:35,680
Speaker 2: always in there as part of the predictive analytics team. Okay,

639
00:31:35,720 --> 00:31:37,720
Speaker 2: so now we can get into the into the nitty

640
00:31:37,720 --> 00:31:42,160
Speaker 2: gritty a little bit. Raybond describe an ideal player prop

641
00:31:42,520 --> 00:31:45,040
Speaker 2: betting opportunity heading into a game, and if you need

642
00:31:45,080 --> 00:31:47,360
Speaker 2: to use an example, do so.

643
00:31:47,360 --> 00:31:50,960
Speaker 3: So I'll actually start by if I may pivot to

644
00:31:51,280 --> 00:31:53,520
Speaker 3: NBA really quick, because I think people might understand this

645
00:31:53,560 --> 00:31:58,800
Speaker 3: one because it was pretty recent. So sometimes these things

646
00:31:58,840 --> 00:32:02,040
Speaker 3: are just gonna pop up, especially if you start understanding

647
00:32:02,040 --> 00:32:05,160
Speaker 3: the probabilities. So there was a situation where heading into

648
00:32:05,200 --> 00:32:11,040
Speaker 3: the NBA Finals, Celtics versus the Mavericks, the MVP odds,

649
00:32:11,080 --> 00:32:14,440
Speaker 3: the MVP props for the for the NBA Finals, Jason

650
00:32:14,480 --> 00:32:17,320
Speaker 3: Tatum was the favorite at about minus one fifty, which

651
00:32:17,360 --> 00:32:19,720
Speaker 3: meant he was about sixty percent chance to win.

652
00:32:20,600 --> 00:32:21,800
Speaker 1: And then Luco is next.

653
00:32:21,840 --> 00:32:25,640
Speaker 3: You know, I think he was just somewhere below fifty percent,

654
00:32:25,680 --> 00:32:28,440
Speaker 3: you know, maybe like plus one plus one eighty or

655
00:32:28,440 --> 00:32:31,200
Speaker 3: something like that. And then there was just a pretty

656
00:32:31,200 --> 00:32:34,200
Speaker 3: big gap. But jaymen Brown was like plus seven hundred,

657
00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:37,760
Speaker 3: and immediately that stuck out to be like a sore

658
00:32:37,840 --> 00:32:41,800
Speaker 3: thumb without having to do any you know, real spreadsheet

659
00:32:41,800 --> 00:32:43,840
Speaker 3: work or math or anything like that, because I'm like,

660
00:32:44,000 --> 00:32:46,640
Speaker 3: wait a minute, Jamon Brown just won the Eastern Conference

661
00:32:46,680 --> 00:32:50,440
Speaker 3: Finals MVP, so at worst, you know, maybe he's you know,

662
00:32:51,120 --> 00:32:53,400
Speaker 3: let's say they played three series. He was definitely better

663
00:32:53,440 --> 00:32:56,640
Speaker 3: than Tatum in one of them so far, So at

664
00:32:56,640 --> 00:32:58,880
Speaker 3: worst his odds should be you know, somewhere like three

665
00:32:58,920 --> 00:33:01,520
Speaker 3: to one or something like that, you know, plus two

666
00:33:01,600 --> 00:33:03,960
Speaker 3: hundred maybe, And so.

667
00:33:03,920 --> 00:33:06,320
Speaker 2: Immediately Tatum was like minus one. You know, it got

668
00:33:06,320 --> 00:33:08,320
Speaker 2: down to like even money at one point, and then

669
00:33:08,400 --> 00:33:10,200
Speaker 2: I think Luca was like three to one.

670
00:33:10,400 --> 00:33:14,280
Speaker 3: Right, So immediately, without having to type anything into a

671
00:33:14,880 --> 00:33:17,040
Speaker 3: browser or a spreadsheet or do any type of math,

672
00:33:18,320 --> 00:33:20,520
Speaker 3: you could just kind of see like, oh man, these

673
00:33:20,560 --> 00:33:23,320
Speaker 3: odds are off because everyone just thinks Tatum is their

674
00:33:23,320 --> 00:33:27,479
Speaker 3: best player and the market sleeping on Jalen Brown. Even

675
00:33:27,520 --> 00:33:29,040
Speaker 3: though there are a lot it doesn't mean it didn't

676
00:33:29,080 --> 00:33:31,720
Speaker 3: mean Jalen Brown was more likely than Tatum to win.

677
00:33:31,800 --> 00:33:33,440
Speaker 3: That's not why you bet him, but he was more

678
00:33:33,560 --> 00:33:37,040
Speaker 3: likely than the plus seven hundred number implied, and that's

679
00:33:37,120 --> 00:33:38,719
Speaker 3: what you care about when vetting props.

680
00:33:38,840 --> 00:33:41,720
Speaker 1: You do not expect to win every single one.

681
00:33:42,000 --> 00:33:45,040
Speaker 3: But remember you're not just betting like sides or even

682
00:33:45,240 --> 00:33:47,120
Speaker 3: the juice is even on each side, So you're gonna

683
00:33:47,160 --> 00:33:50,360
Speaker 3: have times when, for example, like you might see a

684
00:33:50,400 --> 00:33:55,000
Speaker 3: prop where it's like zach Ertz over three and a

685
00:33:55,040 --> 00:33:58,640
Speaker 3: half receptions at minus two hundred or something like that.

686
00:33:58,720 --> 00:34:01,360
Speaker 3: Let's just say that means that the books say are

687
00:34:01,400 --> 00:34:03,480
Speaker 3: saying zach Ertz is going to get four or more

688
00:34:03,520 --> 00:34:07,200
Speaker 3: catches two thirds of the time. But if you think

689
00:34:07,360 --> 00:34:10,240
Speaker 3: that true number is more like seventy five eighty percent

690
00:34:10,239 --> 00:34:13,200
Speaker 3: of the time he gets at least four catches, then

691
00:34:13,239 --> 00:34:17,520
Speaker 3: you should absolutely smash that minus two hundred juice. But

692
00:34:17,560 --> 00:34:19,279
Speaker 3: a lot of people kind of shy away when they

693
00:34:19,280 --> 00:34:22,760
Speaker 3: see juiced up numbers because they are thinking they're getting

694
00:34:22,800 --> 00:34:26,120
Speaker 3: bad value, not realizing that the value doesn't come from

695
00:34:26,200 --> 00:34:28,040
Speaker 3: the juice, that comes from the edge you have over

696
00:34:28,080 --> 00:34:28,479
Speaker 3: the Jews.

697
00:34:28,520 --> 00:34:30,279
Speaker 1: So that's one thing to keep in mind.

698
00:34:30,320 --> 00:34:34,560
Speaker 3: But I think some other great examples are just taking

699
00:34:34,600 --> 00:34:38,160
Speaker 3: advantage of recency bias. The NFL is an extremely small sample.

700
00:34:38,320 --> 00:34:41,920
Speaker 3: You only play seventeen games plus you know, give or

701
00:34:41,920 --> 00:34:44,960
Speaker 3: take in a year. And so there's a lot of randomness,

702
00:34:45,000 --> 00:34:47,080
Speaker 3: a lot of things that there could be a string

703
00:34:47,120 --> 00:34:49,879
Speaker 3: of two, three, four games of a certain outcome. That

704
00:34:49,920 --> 00:34:54,440
Speaker 3: does not mean it's going to continue. So anytime, like

705
00:34:54,719 --> 00:34:57,719
Speaker 3: let's touchdowns for example, even the best players in the

706
00:34:57,800 --> 00:35:01,759
Speaker 3: league tend to not score average one touchdown per game, right,

707
00:35:01,840 --> 00:35:05,040
Speaker 3: so if a guy has scored a touchdown in three

708
00:35:05,120 --> 00:35:09,880
Speaker 3: or four straight games, number one, coaches are gonna be saying, okay,

709
00:35:09,920 --> 00:35:11,799
Speaker 3: we got to do everything we can. That's like this

710
00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:14,120
Speaker 3: guy not get in the end zone, and number two,

711
00:35:14,440 --> 00:35:16,800
Speaker 3: his odds are gonna go, you know, tilted in favor

712
00:35:16,800 --> 00:35:19,560
Speaker 3: of him scoring yet again, and so you know you

713
00:35:19,600 --> 00:35:21,480
Speaker 3: could kind of faint him. And you know not not

714
00:35:21,480 --> 00:35:24,319
Speaker 3: all books off for touchdown knows, so you know, that's

715
00:35:24,440 --> 00:35:25,960
Speaker 3: maybe a bad example. But let's say he got over

716
00:35:25,960 --> 00:35:28,600
Speaker 3: one hundred yards you know, in four straight games. That's

717
00:35:28,600 --> 00:35:31,960
Speaker 3: a really hard thing to do period, much less four

718
00:35:32,000 --> 00:35:34,440
Speaker 3: or five six straight games. So just betting against the

719
00:35:34,520 --> 00:35:37,600
Speaker 3: trends could be in contrarian even if you're betting to

720
00:35:37,600 --> 00:35:41,440
Speaker 3: trarian overs. Like let's say a guy had like some

721
00:35:41,480 --> 00:35:44,359
Speaker 3: really bad games, if he's as long as.

722
00:35:44,320 --> 00:35:46,040
Speaker 1: His underlying usage is good.

723
00:35:46,239 --> 00:35:48,520
Speaker 3: And what I mean by that is if a guy

724
00:35:48,840 --> 00:35:51,000
Speaker 3: maybe has you know, four or five games where he's

725
00:35:51,040 --> 00:35:54,120
Speaker 3: like under thirty receiving yards, but he's running a round

726
00:35:54,200 --> 00:35:56,440
Speaker 3: on eighty five ninety percent of the dropbacks, like he's

727
00:35:56,440 --> 00:35:57,960
Speaker 3: in the game, he's not coming off the field very

728
00:35:58,000 --> 00:36:02,000
Speaker 3: often eventually, you know. So the laws is the statistics

729
00:36:02,080 --> 00:36:04,520
Speaker 3: say that he's gonna get a couple of catches and

730
00:36:04,600 --> 00:36:07,040
Speaker 3: gain some yards, and that line has been coming down

731
00:36:07,040 --> 00:36:08,520
Speaker 3: in the interim, so you're getting value there too.

732
00:36:08,600 --> 00:36:11,080
Speaker 1: So that's generally the best way to bet NFL.

733
00:36:11,200 --> 00:36:14,279
Speaker 3: Just bet against the recent trends as long as you

734
00:36:14,320 --> 00:36:18,160
Speaker 3: have some type of underlying data point or usage or

735
00:36:18,160 --> 00:36:21,319
Speaker 3: whatever not to hang your hat on that makes you

736
00:36:21,360 --> 00:36:23,160
Speaker 3: think that that gives you a reason to believe that

737
00:36:23,200 --> 00:36:24,799
Speaker 3: it's not going to continue.

738
00:36:25,280 --> 00:36:28,640
Speaker 2: This podcast is presented by betmgm us bonus code action

739
00:36:28,719 --> 00:36:31,000
Speaker 2: when signing up to get up to fifteen hundred dollars

740
00:36:31,040 --> 00:36:33,600
Speaker 2: back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win.

741
00:36:33,760 --> 00:36:40,640
Speaker 2: For new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan,

742
00:36:40,680 --> 00:36:45,320
Speaker 2: New Jersey and North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia,

743
00:36:45,400 --> 00:36:48,200
Speaker 2: and Wyoming. Terms and conditions apply. Must be twenty one

744
00:36:48,239 --> 00:36:53,040
Speaker 2: plus gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler. One of

745
00:36:53,120 --> 00:36:54,960
Speaker 2: us is not like the others here, and I'll let

746
00:36:55,000 --> 00:36:57,359
Speaker 2: the people make that judgment on their own, but like

747
00:36:57,440 --> 00:37:00,319
Speaker 2: one that personally that it comes to mind because you

748
00:37:00,360 --> 00:37:04,160
Speaker 2: said you mentioned the touchdown thing. Quarterback rushing yards is

749
00:37:04,200 --> 00:37:06,600
Speaker 2: something that I think about, right, that has its ups,

750
00:37:06,960 --> 00:37:09,520
Speaker 2: has its sways from from week to week two, just

751
00:37:09,560 --> 00:37:12,160
Speaker 2: speaking specifically to the kinds of props you guys are talking.

752
00:37:11,920 --> 00:37:16,439
Speaker 5: About, because the kneel downsneel down, yeah, just yards generally, yeah,

753
00:37:16,440 --> 00:37:19,880
Speaker 5: exactly right, or just that particular game plan that week,

754
00:37:21,280 --> 00:37:25,040
Speaker 5: not just what the defensive coordinator might be saying in

755
00:37:25,080 --> 00:37:27,240
Speaker 5: a given week to not allow something to happen.

756
00:37:27,320 --> 00:37:29,600
Speaker 2: But the other flip side of it, with now so

757
00:37:29,640 --> 00:37:32,160
Speaker 2: many offensive coaches, they're like, hey, they're going to be

758
00:37:32,200 --> 00:37:35,800
Speaker 2: expecting this, We're going to pivot and be more multiple.

759
00:37:35,840 --> 00:37:37,480
Speaker 2: And I know you can think of a couple off.

760
00:37:37,480 --> 00:37:39,080
Speaker 2: I mean, the first one that comes to mind is

761
00:37:39,120 --> 00:37:41,360
Speaker 2: like a Kyle Shanahan for instance, when you have so

762
00:37:41,400 --> 00:37:44,640
Speaker 2: many great skill players, Which that's something to think about too,

763
00:37:44,640 --> 00:37:46,400
Speaker 2: when you have a great team and there's just a

764
00:37:46,400 --> 00:37:48,080
Speaker 2: lot of mouths to feed, and like you would you

765
00:37:48,160 --> 00:37:50,319
Speaker 2: use the Stefan Diggs thing earlier, Like, well, you know

766
00:37:50,440 --> 00:37:53,239
Speaker 2: the benefit of taking an under on Stephan Diggs and

767
00:37:53,239 --> 00:37:55,080
Speaker 2: you're a Texans fan. You can still root for Tank

768
00:37:55,120 --> 00:37:57,759
Speaker 2: Dell and Eco Collins and c J. Stroud and you

769
00:37:57,800 --> 00:38:00,640
Speaker 2: can still be a happy better and be happy fan.

770
00:38:01,760 --> 00:38:04,440
Speaker 2: What about you, Kerner, when you an ideal player bet

771
00:38:04,760 --> 00:38:07,560
Speaker 2: player prop betting opportunity going into a standalone game or

772
00:38:07,719 --> 00:38:08,440
Speaker 2: a Sunday slate.

773
00:38:08,680 --> 00:38:10,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, so, i' mean just at a high level, you know,

774
00:38:10,719 --> 00:38:14,560
Speaker 4: I best. I base most of my prop bets initially

775
00:38:14,560 --> 00:38:17,279
Speaker 4: on my projections, and you know where I calculate the

776
00:38:17,280 --> 00:38:19,840
Speaker 4: percent chance that they're going to go over under their prop.

777
00:38:19,960 --> 00:38:23,480
Speaker 4: So typically, if I'm showing greater than say a fifty

778
00:38:23,520 --> 00:38:26,880
Speaker 4: eight percent chance they're going to go over under a

779
00:38:27,320 --> 00:38:31,480
Speaker 4: minus one p fifteen say money line, I flag that

780
00:38:31,600 --> 00:38:34,640
Speaker 4: and I look into it and I try to see,

781
00:38:34,680 --> 00:38:37,240
Speaker 4: you know, if my projection makes sense. I think about

782
00:38:37,719 --> 00:38:41,840
Speaker 4: if the underlying factors makes sense. But I think a

783
00:38:41,880 --> 00:38:45,480
Speaker 4: more specific example from last year where I kind of merged.

784
00:38:45,520 --> 00:38:49,840
Speaker 4: The two was on a quarterback prop, and as Raybon mentioned,

785
00:38:49,880 --> 00:38:52,920
Speaker 4: you know quarterbacks, when it comes to their passing yard props,

786
00:38:53,560 --> 00:38:55,640
Speaker 4: there's a wide range of outcomes, so I'm typically not

787
00:38:55,680 --> 00:38:59,280
Speaker 4: betting on them. But I did notice that Tim Boyle.

788
00:38:59,360 --> 00:39:01,600
Speaker 4: I was showing about a fifty six percent chance he

789
00:39:01,640 --> 00:39:03,920
Speaker 4: would go under his passing yards, and.

790
00:39:03,880 --> 00:39:04,400
Speaker 2: I think.

791
00:39:06,360 --> 00:39:09,120
Speaker 1: Tim Boyle ever done over his You are.

792
00:39:08,920 --> 00:39:12,120
Speaker 4: Talking to the guy that loves betting on punter prop,

793
00:39:12,160 --> 00:39:14,239
Speaker 4: so I'm absolutely going to talk about Tim Boyle. But

794
00:39:14,719 --> 00:39:17,799
Speaker 4: you know, he he had already replaced Zach Wilson, he

795
00:39:17,880 --> 00:39:21,759
Speaker 4: had a full game before this, his second start. So

796
00:39:23,000 --> 00:39:24,560
Speaker 4: one of the things that I and I was showing

797
00:39:24,560 --> 00:39:27,000
Speaker 4: a fifty six percent edge on his under. So typically

798
00:39:27,080 --> 00:39:29,279
Speaker 4: I just move on, but one of the things I

799
00:39:29,320 --> 00:39:31,719
Speaker 4: do is I sort of really mentally play out the

800
00:39:31,760 --> 00:39:34,279
Speaker 4: game in my head and you know, thinking about my

801
00:39:34,320 --> 00:39:37,920
Speaker 4: projection things, and I realized that all the underlying factors

802
00:39:38,040 --> 00:39:41,600
Speaker 4: for him were pointing towards the under. And what I

803
00:39:41,680 --> 00:39:43,799
Speaker 4: mean by that is the Jets were at home and

804
00:39:43,840 --> 00:39:47,200
Speaker 4: they were actually slight favorites over the Falcons, So I figured,

805
00:39:47,239 --> 00:39:49,239
Speaker 4: you know, Tim Boyle under center, they're just going to

806
00:39:49,320 --> 00:39:51,000
Speaker 4: lean on the run game a lot more. I mean,

807
00:39:51,040 --> 00:39:54,359
Speaker 4: they're slight favorites. Bruce Hall was playing amazing at the time.

808
00:39:54,640 --> 00:39:57,160
Speaker 4: They do not want Tim Boyle stepping back to pass.

809
00:39:57,800 --> 00:39:59,520
Speaker 4: So I thought, you know, it's either going to be

810
00:39:59,560 --> 00:40:02,439
Speaker 4: a close or leading game script where they're just gonna

811
00:40:02,520 --> 00:40:05,400
Speaker 4: lean on the run a ton, which is gonna cap

812
00:40:05,719 --> 00:40:07,880
Speaker 4: you know, Tim Boyle's ceiling when it comes to passing

813
00:40:07,920 --> 00:40:12,920
Speaker 4: yards or Tim Boyle's playing like shit, they're down, you know,

814
00:40:13,000 --> 00:40:15,400
Speaker 4: by a touchdowner. So that's that's ideal when you have

815
00:40:15,440 --> 00:40:17,919
Speaker 4: the over on a passing yards prop because they're gonna

816
00:40:17,920 --> 00:40:20,600
Speaker 4: be throwing more. But in this situation, he was probably

817
00:40:20,600 --> 00:40:24,200
Speaker 4: at risk to get benched for Trevor Simeon. So I thought,

818
00:40:24,280 --> 00:40:27,200
Speaker 4: both scenarios are actually pointing towards the under So I

819
00:40:27,239 --> 00:40:30,280
Speaker 4: took my fifty six percent projection. I said, it's probably

820
00:40:30,760 --> 00:40:33,080
Speaker 4: more than sixty percent when you when you think about this.

821
00:40:33,200 --> 00:40:36,000
Speaker 4: So that's just an example of when I when I

822
00:40:36,040 --> 00:40:40,200
Speaker 4: think of like the worst case scenario actually leads to

823
00:40:40,239 --> 00:40:43,400
Speaker 4: the beheading as well, I'm going kind of going outside

824
00:40:43,440 --> 00:40:45,839
Speaker 4: of my projections at that point. So that's why it's

825
00:40:46,160 --> 00:40:48,839
Speaker 4: it's a mixture of an art and science when I'm

826
00:40:48,840 --> 00:40:52,320
Speaker 4: attacking these props, because you know there's the human element.

827
00:40:52,800 --> 00:40:55,280
Speaker 4: You know, that's where it helps being like an NFL

828
00:40:55,320 --> 00:40:59,160
Speaker 4: expert knowing these situations. And sure enough, that's exactly what happened.

829
00:40:59,160 --> 00:41:02,280
Speaker 4: The Jets ended up trailing. At some point. Tim Boyle

830
00:41:02,320 --> 00:41:04,480
Speaker 4: had a bad drive and they benched him and Trevor

831
00:41:04,520 --> 00:41:06,680
Speaker 4: Simmons came in, so the bet hit. But that's just

832
00:41:06,719 --> 00:41:09,399
Speaker 4: an example of like how I think about the prop

833
00:41:09,520 --> 00:41:11,399
Speaker 4: before I even lock it in. I try to think

834
00:41:11,400 --> 00:41:13,879
Speaker 4: about all the different scenarios on how it could win

835
00:41:14,040 --> 00:41:14,440
Speaker 4: or lose.

836
00:41:15,040 --> 00:41:15,919
Speaker 1: You have to spell it out.

837
00:41:16,120 --> 00:41:19,919
Speaker 3: What Sean is saying one of the best situations that

838
00:41:20,080 --> 00:41:23,560
Speaker 3: it's somewhat rare, but it happens enough, and even as

839
00:41:23,600 --> 00:41:26,560
Speaker 3: a casual fan, I think you know you will notice

840
00:41:26,560 --> 00:41:28,560
Speaker 3: this when it does come up. Quarterbacks who are at

841
00:41:28,640 --> 00:41:31,200
Speaker 3: risk of being benched just hammer their unders. You could

842
00:41:31,400 --> 00:41:35,600
Speaker 3: go across the board under completions, under attempts, under rushing yards,

843
00:41:35,680 --> 00:41:38,719
Speaker 3: under passing yards. I mean, they're like I did that

844
00:41:40,400 --> 00:41:42,400
Speaker 3: for Cam Newton. It was I think it was the

845
00:41:42,440 --> 00:41:45,319
Speaker 3: pandemic year when he was quarterback in the Patriots and

846
00:41:45,840 --> 00:41:47,120
Speaker 3: the Rams had a really good defense.

847
00:41:47,120 --> 00:41:48,440
Speaker 1: I think it was coached by Wade Phillips.

848
00:41:48,440 --> 00:41:51,000
Speaker 3: They had all these studs, Aaron Donalds, I think Jayalon

849
00:41:51,120 --> 00:41:54,800
Speaker 3: Ramsey and the Patriots. Yeah, and the Patriots are terrible

850
00:41:55,440 --> 00:41:57,680
Speaker 3: at the time on offense, but you know, there are

851
00:41:57,680 --> 00:42:01,239
Speaker 3: certain games they could just kind of run around long

852
00:42:01,360 --> 00:42:03,239
Speaker 3: enough to stay in it. But this is a game

853
00:42:03,239 --> 00:42:06,560
Speaker 3: where the Rams had a lit offense. There I was,

854
00:42:06,640 --> 00:42:09,439
Speaker 3: I was looking at this game. There's no way Cam

855
00:42:09,520 --> 00:42:14,000
Speaker 3: Newton is having any success against this defense. And if

856
00:42:14,000 --> 00:42:16,640
Speaker 3: he doesn't have success against his defense, there's a very

857
00:42:16,719 --> 00:42:18,520
Speaker 3: high likelihood that he just gets benched. I think at

858
00:42:18,520 --> 00:42:20,359
Speaker 3: the time they had Jared Stidham, who had played well

859
00:42:20,360 --> 00:42:22,360
Speaker 3: in the preseason, so they I think they wanted to

860
00:42:22,400 --> 00:42:23,279
Speaker 3: maybe get a look at him.

861
00:42:23,320 --> 00:42:24,200
Speaker 1: I think that's what it was.

862
00:42:24,360 --> 00:42:27,800
Speaker 3: And so yeah, you just just hammer unders and and

863
00:42:27,800 --> 00:42:29,600
Speaker 3: and and that's the way. You know, if your books

864
00:42:29,600 --> 00:42:31,759
Speaker 3: are witting you, par away those even better. But I

865
00:42:31,840 --> 00:42:33,960
Speaker 3: mean that if you really want to go him on

866
00:42:34,280 --> 00:42:36,319
Speaker 3: a game and you're looking for a spot, just be

867
00:42:36,400 --> 00:42:39,919
Speaker 3: that guy that that that finds, you know, that guy

868
00:42:40,040 --> 00:42:43,520
Speaker 3: or gal who finds when quarterbacks are going to have

869
00:42:43,520 --> 00:42:45,080
Speaker 3: a short lease or at risk of bench. I mean,

870
00:42:45,120 --> 00:42:47,839
Speaker 3: every Viking's quarterback last year, right, and he it can

871
00:42:47,880 --> 00:42:49,680
Speaker 3: also be because the team has a bad old line,

872
00:42:49,760 --> 00:42:52,399
Speaker 3: so quarterback could be more of an injury slash bench risk.

873
00:42:52,920 --> 00:42:55,000
Speaker 3: You know, Daniel Jones left a bunch of games last

874
00:42:55,040 --> 00:42:57,440
Speaker 3: year before he ultimately to quarterbacks.

875
00:42:57,480 --> 00:42:59,600
Speaker 2: A lot of quarterbacks got hurt last year. That was

876
00:42:59,640 --> 00:43:02,040
Speaker 2: something to monitor going into this year, that it was

877
00:43:02,040 --> 00:43:03,920
Speaker 2: a high volume of quarterbacks got hurt last year.

878
00:43:04,000 --> 00:43:06,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, so quarterback benjing Riss are one of the best

879
00:43:06,400 --> 00:43:11,440
Speaker 3: best situations to take advantage from NFL prop standpoint good stuff.

880
00:43:12,360 --> 00:43:14,480
Speaker 2: Kerner kind of teased this with the and I think

881
00:43:14,480 --> 00:43:17,080
Speaker 2: this is a fascinating discussion, and I'm sure this requires

882
00:43:17,080 --> 00:43:19,680
Speaker 2: a lot of discipline and shout out to the bet

883
00:43:19,719 --> 00:43:24,560
Speaker 2: what Happens Live crew Nick Giffen, Grant Nefer. I think

884
00:43:24,600 --> 00:43:27,440
Speaker 2: you guys have been a part of that in previous times. Okay, Sean, Okay,

885
00:43:27,520 --> 00:43:31,920
Speaker 2: very good. A gambler approaching live betting player props and

886
00:43:31,960 --> 00:43:34,160
Speaker 2: a lot of times that could be at halftime right

887
00:43:34,200 --> 00:43:36,600
Speaker 2: when you think a team might make adjustments or you

888
00:43:36,880 --> 00:43:38,879
Speaker 2: have an idea of what the game script is and

889
00:43:39,160 --> 00:43:41,759
Speaker 2: who's trailing, who has the lead, and that introduces a

890
00:43:41,760 --> 00:43:45,920
Speaker 2: whole a whole bit of ideas here, So dos and

891
00:43:46,000 --> 00:43:50,600
Speaker 2: don'ts raybond to live betting player props and when maybe

892
00:43:50,600 --> 00:43:53,120
Speaker 2: and there are opportunities, make sure where the time is right.

893
00:43:54,000 --> 00:43:57,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, so I would say, first thing is what I

894
00:43:58,000 --> 00:44:00,479
Speaker 3: like to do when I'm live betting. This could also

895
00:44:00,600 --> 00:44:04,279
Speaker 3: just apply to sides and totals. But before you just

896
00:44:04,880 --> 00:44:07,799
Speaker 3: jump in and just start you know, pressing, uh, you know,

897
00:44:07,920 --> 00:44:11,279
Speaker 3: bet Now, just look at the way the lines are

898
00:44:11,280 --> 00:44:13,560
Speaker 3: moving as the game is progressing. So get an idea

899
00:44:13,680 --> 00:44:16,239
Speaker 3: of Okay, let's say you're watching an NFL game. A

900
00:44:16,280 --> 00:44:20,560
Speaker 3: team wins, the wins the coin toss, uh, and well

901
00:44:20,600 --> 00:44:23,279
Speaker 3: maybe they don't. They don't receive anymore. So a team

902
00:44:23,320 --> 00:44:26,200
Speaker 3: loses the coin toss, gets the ball first, goes down

903
00:44:26,239 --> 00:44:31,000
Speaker 3: the field and scores an early touchdown, and and they're

904
00:44:31,040 --> 00:44:35,200
Speaker 3: already a big favorite. Well look at the receiver props

905
00:44:35,239 --> 00:44:37,080
Speaker 3: and and look at you know, how how much do

906
00:44:37,160 --> 00:44:39,520
Speaker 3: they come down because of the projected games. Get an

907
00:44:39,520 --> 00:44:42,320
Speaker 3: idea of just how the books are moving the lines,

908
00:44:42,360 --> 00:44:44,839
Speaker 3: because a lot of times for these live props, it's

909
00:44:44,920 --> 00:44:47,880
Speaker 3: it's pretty much strictly algorithm by the books. And and

910
00:44:47,960 --> 00:44:50,440
Speaker 3: they're not gonna just they're not just sitting there watching

911
00:44:50,440 --> 00:44:52,919
Speaker 3: the game too, and you know, updating in real time,

912
00:44:53,200 --> 00:44:55,600
Speaker 3: they have somebody kind of overseeing it, but it's gonna

913
00:44:55,640 --> 00:44:57,680
Speaker 3: kind of be algorithm based, and so you just have

914
00:44:57,719 --> 00:44:59,239
Speaker 3: to get an idea of how these lines are moving,

915
00:44:59,239 --> 00:45:00,960
Speaker 3: and that's how you kind of on your edges. And

916
00:45:01,040 --> 00:45:04,319
Speaker 3: like in NBA, you know, a lot of times a

917
00:45:04,360 --> 00:45:07,200
Speaker 3: player may start, you know, zero for five in the

918
00:45:07,200 --> 00:45:09,200
Speaker 3: first three minutes of the game. But if he's a

919
00:45:10,280 --> 00:45:13,279
Speaker 3: star player, you know, just a decent offensive player, the

920
00:45:13,320 --> 00:45:16,840
Speaker 3: fact that he got five shots up that quickly means

921
00:45:17,000 --> 00:45:19,680
Speaker 3: he's probably not going to just disappear for the rest

922
00:45:19,719 --> 00:45:22,640
Speaker 3: of the game, but his points prop may have gone down,

923
00:45:22,719 --> 00:45:25,239
Speaker 3: you know, to four points, so that's when you want

924
00:45:25,239 --> 00:45:28,520
Speaker 3: to kind of jump in. And and also you know injuries.

925
00:45:28,560 --> 00:45:32,000
Speaker 3: You know, if you see a player go down, especially

926
00:45:32,160 --> 00:45:35,520
Speaker 3: an important player, star player, there's somebody's gonna benefit from that,

927
00:45:35,880 --> 00:45:38,960
Speaker 3: and so you could you can hit their their prop.

928
00:45:39,160 --> 00:45:41,439
Speaker 3: But I think the biggest edge for NFL and Sean

929
00:45:41,480 --> 00:45:44,040
Speaker 3: and I always kind of text about this during some

930
00:45:44,080 --> 00:45:47,120
Speaker 3: of these Island games is, uh, you'll have a team

931
00:45:47,239 --> 00:45:50,799
Speaker 3: up you know, two three scores heading into halftime, and

932
00:45:51,360 --> 00:45:53,680
Speaker 3: you like the team that's losing, you could just hammer

933
00:45:53,719 --> 00:45:56,399
Speaker 3: the unders on their running back props because they're not

934
00:45:56,600 --> 00:45:59,040
Speaker 3: going to run the ball much in the second half.

935
00:45:59,120 --> 00:46:02,080
Speaker 3: You could target their running the receiving back overs. You

936
00:46:02,080 --> 00:46:04,920
Speaker 3: could fade their you know, early down back. You can

937
00:46:05,000 --> 00:46:08,640
Speaker 3: target their receivers and vice versa for the team that's ahead.

938
00:46:08,680 --> 00:46:11,279
Speaker 3: So anytime there's a widespread in the score, like a

939
00:46:11,360 --> 00:46:13,120
Speaker 3: team is up or down by a lot of points,

940
00:46:13,160 --> 00:46:15,160
Speaker 3: there's usually going to be some value to be had

941
00:46:15,600 --> 00:46:17,160
Speaker 3: due to gamescript in the prop market.

942
00:46:18,360 --> 00:46:21,480
Speaker 2: Sean thoughts on the live angles to player props.

943
00:46:21,600 --> 00:46:25,400
Speaker 4: Yeah, so, first off, shout out again to Nick Giffen

944
00:46:25,520 --> 00:46:27,960
Speaker 4: and the Bet What Happens Live show. I think he

945
00:46:28,320 --> 00:46:31,120
Speaker 4: does an excellent job going over you know, the live

946
00:46:31,160 --> 00:46:33,680
Speaker 4: player prop tool we created and kind of going over

947
00:46:33,719 --> 00:46:36,680
Speaker 4: the process during a game of why we're showing value.

948
00:46:36,719 --> 00:46:39,239
Speaker 4: And as Rayba mentioned, it does come down a lot

949
00:46:39,239 --> 00:46:41,880
Speaker 4: to game flow where if a team's trailing, you know

950
00:46:41,920 --> 00:46:44,600
Speaker 4: their passing rate's going to be higher, whereas the team

951
00:46:44,600 --> 00:46:46,520
Speaker 4: with the lead, their rush rate's going to be higher.

952
00:46:46,520 --> 00:46:50,640
Speaker 4: But interestingly enough, sometimes the value we show can go

953
00:46:50,680 --> 00:46:54,080
Speaker 4: against the grain a bit because you know, everyone the market,

954
00:46:54,160 --> 00:46:56,759
Speaker 4: the live market has gotten a lot Sharper. Everybody is

955
00:46:56,760 --> 00:47:00,680
Speaker 4: pretty much aware of how game flow does dictate play calling,

956
00:47:00,960 --> 00:47:03,879
Speaker 4: but oftentimes the market overlooks how quickly the game flow

957
00:47:03,880 --> 00:47:06,479
Speaker 4: can actually flip. A team can come back and score

958
00:47:06,480 --> 00:47:08,400
Speaker 4: a couple of touchdowns, and all of a sudden, now

959
00:47:08,440 --> 00:47:10,880
Speaker 4: they have the lead and they're running the ball at

960
00:47:10,920 --> 00:47:13,279
Speaker 4: a higher rate. So that's kind of baked in our projections,

961
00:47:13,280 --> 00:47:16,480
Speaker 4: and sometimes we show value kind of going against that

962
00:47:16,520 --> 00:47:20,520
Speaker 4: thought process, but again every case is different. One other

963
00:47:20,600 --> 00:47:22,400
Speaker 4: thing I wanted to talk about with live betting is

964
00:47:22,719 --> 00:47:26,920
Speaker 4: I've used it sometimes to attack specific props that I

965
00:47:27,000 --> 00:47:30,040
Speaker 4: liked pregame as well. The best example of this was

966
00:47:30,120 --> 00:47:33,799
Speaker 4: Khalil Herbert. A couple of years I took the over

967
00:47:33,880 --> 00:47:35,840
Speaker 4: on his rushing prop. It was, you know, something like

968
00:47:35,880 --> 00:47:38,120
Speaker 4: twenty three and a half rushing arts. He was backing

969
00:47:38,160 --> 00:47:41,240
Speaker 4: up David Montgomery at the time, but the Bear's running

970
00:47:41,280 --> 00:47:44,120
Speaker 4: back rotation was pretty much set in stone every game,

971
00:47:44,160 --> 00:47:47,359
Speaker 4: where David Montgomery would take the first two drives all

972
00:47:47,400 --> 00:47:50,120
Speaker 4: to himself and then Khlelil Herbert would take the third

973
00:47:50,200 --> 00:47:52,759
Speaker 4: drive all to himself. So what I did was I

974
00:47:52,760 --> 00:47:56,839
Speaker 4: bet Klelil Herbert over pregame. But also you know, at

975
00:47:56,880 --> 00:47:59,480
Speaker 4: the end of the bear second drive, once David Montgomery

976
00:47:59,480 --> 00:48:02,200
Speaker 4: had played every single snap at that point, I alerted

977
00:48:02,200 --> 00:48:06,920
Speaker 4: our discord, I'm attacking Kloherbert's over because his prop actually

978
00:48:06,960 --> 00:48:09,560
Speaker 4: went down a few yards. But I didn't expect them

979
00:48:09,600 --> 00:48:12,200
Speaker 4: to have a touch by then, so you know the

980
00:48:12,719 --> 00:48:16,080
Speaker 4: like Raybam mentioned that some of the props are algorithm based,

981
00:48:16,560 --> 00:48:18,719
Speaker 4: so his his prop went down a few yards even

982
00:48:18,760 --> 00:48:21,160
Speaker 4: though I didn't expect him to touch the ball. Sure enough,

983
00:48:21,160 --> 00:48:23,319
Speaker 4: he got the entire third drive to himself, and I

984
00:48:23,320 --> 00:48:26,200
Speaker 4: think he cleared the prop on that drive. But sometimes

985
00:48:26,239 --> 00:48:29,040
Speaker 4: based on player rotations and stuff, you can kind of

986
00:48:29,040 --> 00:48:32,720
Speaker 4: catch the market off guard and get even more value

987
00:48:32,760 --> 00:48:34,879
Speaker 4: betting a prop an angle in game.

988
00:48:36,800 --> 00:48:38,959
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's kind of like I mean crossing sports again,

989
00:48:39,000 --> 00:48:42,600
Speaker 2: like Raybond, like you had said, like that, very different obviously,

990
00:48:42,640 --> 00:48:44,160
Speaker 2: but like in the NBA, if you get a feel

991
00:48:44,200 --> 00:48:46,520
Speaker 2: for like player rotations and coaching patterns, I know, it's

992
00:48:46,560 --> 00:48:50,719
Speaker 2: a lot different than football, Like it's more like it's more,

993
00:48:51,440 --> 00:48:54,239
Speaker 2: there's more the process is a little bit easier. You

994
00:48:54,320 --> 00:48:55,960
Speaker 2: have to be really committed to watching on a week

995
00:48:56,000 --> 00:48:59,960
Speaker 2: to week basis and understanding eight team's process. But it's like, Okay,

996
00:49:00,320 --> 00:49:02,839
Speaker 2: your turn this drive, then it's your turn next drive.

997
00:49:02,880 --> 00:49:05,080
Speaker 2: Where it's like you got to be monitoring minutes, more

998
00:49:05,080 --> 00:49:08,640
Speaker 2: specific minutes down to the second when a coach might

999
00:49:09,040 --> 00:49:11,880
Speaker 2: uh substituting. In the NBA, you can you can actually

1000
00:49:11,880 --> 00:49:13,520
Speaker 2: see it more on a broadcast as opposed to an

1001
00:49:13,600 --> 00:49:14,120
Speaker 2: NFL game.

1002
00:49:14,200 --> 00:49:17,320
Speaker 3: Right, Yeah, I'll give an example. I remember a prop

1003
00:49:17,400 --> 00:49:19,759
Speaker 3: that I had a lot of success with. I think

1004
00:49:19,760 --> 00:49:20,600
Speaker 3: it was a couple of years ago.

1005
00:49:20,640 --> 00:49:21,000
Speaker 1: I don't know.

1006
00:49:21,040 --> 00:49:23,080
Speaker 3: I ended up keep talking about the Celtics for some reason.

1007
00:49:23,120 --> 00:49:25,319
Speaker 3: I'm not at all a Boston fan or anything like that.

1008
00:49:25,440 --> 00:49:30,040
Speaker 3: But this was when they stood had Robert Williams the

1009
00:49:30,080 --> 00:49:31,759
Speaker 3: third playing center. So it was a couple of years

1010
00:49:31,760 --> 00:49:34,480
Speaker 3: ago in the playoffs, and they were this is when

1011
00:49:34,520 --> 00:49:37,080
Speaker 3: they were starting to go with their five out everyone's

1012
00:49:37,080 --> 00:49:39,040
Speaker 3: a shooter, so Williams wasn't.

1013
00:49:38,840 --> 00:49:40,719
Speaker 1: Getting much action. I think it was against the Sixers.

1014
00:49:40,760 --> 00:49:45,400
Speaker 3: And this is when the Celtics were choking pretty much

1015
00:49:45,440 --> 00:49:48,279
Speaker 3: every series away, or about to choke every series away.

1016
00:49:48,320 --> 00:49:50,080
Speaker 1: They were going down at home, they were losing games

1017
00:49:50,080 --> 00:49:50,680
Speaker 1: they should have won.

1018
00:49:50,880 --> 00:49:54,840
Speaker 3: And so yeah, right, so they had just come off

1019
00:49:55,200 --> 00:49:58,319
Speaker 3: they had just come off a spot where they had

1020
00:49:58,320 --> 00:50:02,560
Speaker 3: a bad loss and the Sixers were punking them. And

1021
00:50:03,040 --> 00:50:05,520
Speaker 3: the only thing that I saw that they could change,

1022
00:50:05,520 --> 00:50:07,480
Speaker 3: because remember it's a game of adjustments in the NBA two,

1023
00:50:07,560 --> 00:50:10,440
Speaker 3: especially in the playoffs, was that they need more toughness

1024
00:50:10,480 --> 00:50:14,120
Speaker 3: because jaw Embiid was just you know, balling out and

1025
00:50:15,120 --> 00:50:17,040
Speaker 3: that like there was no other thing they could do,

1026
00:50:17,080 --> 00:50:18,880
Speaker 3: like they had already, you know, they already had other

1027
00:50:18,920 --> 00:50:19,600
Speaker 3: shooters on the court.

1028
00:50:19,600 --> 00:50:21,080
Speaker 1: And so I was like, you know what, Robert.

1029
00:50:20,800 --> 00:50:24,160
Speaker 3: Williams has only played maybe, you know, five ten minutes

1030
00:50:24,200 --> 00:50:27,160
Speaker 3: in the last few games he's been benched, but so

1031
00:50:27,200 --> 00:50:30,200
Speaker 3: his props were super low. His points, rebounds, assist, all

1032
00:50:30,239 --> 00:50:32,279
Speaker 3: those props, and I just hammered the overs on all

1033
00:50:32,280 --> 00:50:37,080
Speaker 3: of them, just in anticipation of that adjustment. And it

1034
00:50:37,160 --> 00:50:39,759
Speaker 3: was before it even got reported that it was a

1035
00:50:39,800 --> 00:50:42,040
Speaker 3: potential thing, or before people even started, you know, the

1036
00:50:42,400 --> 00:50:46,000
Speaker 3: beat reported started eventually saying, yeah, you know what, I think.

1037
00:50:46,120 --> 00:50:48,879
Speaker 3: You know, we're asking the coach if he's gonna get

1038
00:50:48,960 --> 00:50:50,879
Speaker 3: Williams some more minutes, because we think that's the best thing.

1039
00:50:51,160 --> 00:50:54,160
Speaker 3: But if you can anticipate those kind of changes before

1040
00:50:54,200 --> 00:50:58,760
Speaker 3: they occur, that that's usually a very profitable angle.

1041
00:50:58,840 --> 00:50:59,920
Speaker 1: So they could happen in NFL.

1042
00:51:00,200 --> 00:51:03,120
Speaker 3: You know, if a guy is maybe a running back,

1043
00:51:03,560 --> 00:51:06,319
Speaker 3: is running the ball fine, but he's really struggling in

1044
00:51:06,360 --> 00:51:09,919
Speaker 3: pass protection, so his pass STAPs are going to go down. Well,

1045
00:51:10,000 --> 00:51:13,120
Speaker 3: maybe the backup running back has you know, a receiving

1046
00:51:13,160 --> 00:51:15,359
Speaker 3: prop of like four and a half yards, so even

1047
00:51:15,400 --> 00:51:18,160
Speaker 3: if he's in there more for pass protection, eventually you're

1048
00:51:18,160 --> 00:51:20,279
Speaker 3: gonna run around. You know, most most running backs still

1049
00:51:20,320 --> 00:51:22,919
Speaker 3: run around eighty eighty five percent of pass deps block

1050
00:51:22,960 --> 00:51:25,920
Speaker 3: about fifteen to twenty percent. So things like that, Just

1051
00:51:25,960 --> 00:51:29,839
Speaker 3: anticipating coaching changes based on things that you've seen from

1052
00:51:30,120 --> 00:51:31,200
Speaker 3: watching or even.

1053
00:51:31,000 --> 00:51:31,880
Speaker 1: Just box watching.

1054
00:51:32,400 --> 00:51:34,839
Speaker 2: Something I'm taking from this episode too is I would

1055
00:51:34,880 --> 00:51:37,680
Speaker 2: be I've done it with I've definitely done with Sean.

1056
00:51:37,719 --> 00:51:38,920
Speaker 2: I don't know if I've done it with Chris. Like

1057
00:51:39,360 --> 00:51:42,560
Speaker 2: learning how to watch a game, like watch just understand

1058
00:51:42,880 --> 00:51:45,440
Speaker 2: for live betting purposes, and then you can probably pick

1059
00:51:45,520 --> 00:51:47,879
Speaker 2: up on things that you guys do ahead into the week,

1060
00:51:48,120 --> 00:51:52,120
Speaker 2: conversations you've had amongst each other in discord, whatever. But

1061
00:51:52,239 --> 00:51:55,680
Speaker 2: learning how to watch a game to understand because again

1062
00:51:55,719 --> 00:51:57,560
Speaker 2: I used the word timing earlier, you got to be

1063
00:51:57,600 --> 00:52:01,080
Speaker 2: on it because things are changing, so quickly markets are

1064
00:52:01,080 --> 00:52:04,880
Speaker 2: moving as as a particular drive happens. But learning how

1065
00:52:04,880 --> 00:52:06,719
Speaker 2: to watch a game, that would be quite the experience

1066
00:52:06,800 --> 00:52:08,640
Speaker 2: if you, if I didn't work for the company, if

1067
00:52:08,680 --> 00:52:10,400
Speaker 2: someone else could get that opportunity to learn how to

1068
00:52:10,440 --> 00:52:12,640
Speaker 2: watch just or just learn from you how you watch

1069
00:52:12,640 --> 00:52:15,000
Speaker 2: a game and how you go about your live betting process.

1070
00:52:15,040 --> 00:52:17,400
Speaker 2: So all right, let's wrap with this. We'll have a

1071
00:52:17,440 --> 00:52:20,879
Speaker 2: little fun to wrap it up. What is Chris your

1072
00:52:20,960 --> 00:52:25,000
Speaker 2: ultimate thrill betting? The ultimate thrill betting a player prop

1073
00:52:25,080 --> 00:52:27,400
Speaker 2: experience or this can be like a generic example.

1074
00:52:28,160 --> 00:52:30,880
Speaker 3: I love the obscure players with the Super Bowl props

1075
00:52:30,920 --> 00:52:34,160
Speaker 3: and still betting them under because books tend to put

1076
00:52:34,160 --> 00:52:36,640
Speaker 3: those lines out as traps, you know, if they're like

1077
00:52:36,680 --> 00:52:40,400
Speaker 3: Sean would usually ping me anytime they books list like

1078
00:52:40,760 --> 00:52:43,919
Speaker 3: a third string tight end like Marcedes Lewis over under

1079
00:52:44,200 --> 00:52:46,400
Speaker 3: one and a half yards or something like that. A

1080
00:52:46,440 --> 00:52:48,319
Speaker 3: lot of people look at that and say, oh, man,

1081
00:52:48,400 --> 00:52:50,239
Speaker 3: you know two yards, that's that's that's easy.

1082
00:52:50,360 --> 00:52:51,799
Speaker 1: Yeah, he'll get over that a lot of times.

1083
00:52:51,840 --> 00:52:55,440
Speaker 3: It's even some in extreme examples a half yard and

1084
00:52:55,520 --> 00:52:58,200
Speaker 3: the most the one I remember is Ray Ray McCloud

1085
00:52:58,239 --> 00:53:00,640
Speaker 3: a couple of years ago, in the playoff, uh with

1086
00:53:00,760 --> 00:53:04,319
Speaker 3: his receiving yardage prop was a half yard, and so

1087
00:53:05,000 --> 00:53:08,000
Speaker 3: I slammed the under because I didn't expected to run

1088
00:53:08,040 --> 00:53:10,879
Speaker 3: one on one two routes. And he could also get

1089
00:53:10,920 --> 00:53:13,160
Speaker 3: bubble screens behind the line of scrimmage, so he could

1090
00:53:13,200 --> 00:53:16,000
Speaker 3: catch a pass for negative one yards or zero yards,

1091
00:53:16,000 --> 00:53:18,640
Speaker 3: it's still go over the negative half yard. So I

1092
00:53:18,719 --> 00:53:20,680
Speaker 3: just like sticking it to to sports books. It's like

1093
00:53:20,719 --> 00:53:24,480
Speaker 3: my degenerate ridiculous, But yeah.

1094
00:53:24,640 --> 00:53:27,239
Speaker 2: Was what was the ring? The recent example was, was

1095
00:53:27,239 --> 00:53:29,240
Speaker 2: it Elijah Mitchell from the Niners?

1096
00:53:28,880 --> 00:53:31,200
Speaker 3: Yes, ever under a half a carrier under winning a

1097
00:53:31,239 --> 00:53:32,920
Speaker 3: half carries into Super Bowl, and I think he got

1098
00:53:32,960 --> 00:53:34,239
Speaker 3: exactly what or something like that.

1099
00:53:35,040 --> 00:53:37,399
Speaker 2: Those are I think moved during the week. I think

1100
00:53:37,440 --> 00:53:39,120
Speaker 2: from a half to one and a half. That's again

1101
00:53:39,200 --> 00:53:41,240
Speaker 2: it goes back to you gonna keep an eye. Okay,

1102
00:53:41,719 --> 00:53:43,960
Speaker 2: that's what I remember that you bet. I think stuck

1103
00:53:43,960 --> 00:53:47,840
Speaker 2: he was on it too, Sean. You ultimate thrill betting

1104
00:53:47,840 --> 00:53:48,439
Speaker 2: a player prop.

1105
00:53:49,280 --> 00:53:52,560
Speaker 4: I mean I've probably bet on a million player props there.

1106
00:53:52,600 --> 00:53:54,880
Speaker 4: I think they're always the best sweat, whether it's a

1107
00:53:54,960 --> 00:53:58,279
Speaker 4: bad beat or an amazing win. But I think I've

1108
00:53:58,280 --> 00:54:00,800
Speaker 4: been having a lot of fun lately, you know, knowing

1109
00:54:00,960 --> 00:54:03,319
Speaker 4: just a lot of people are tailing the props that

1110
00:54:03,360 --> 00:54:06,040
Speaker 4: I give out, and being in our discord, I'm able

1111
00:54:06,080 --> 00:54:09,000
Speaker 4: to kind of talk about it, sweat it, celebrate when

1112
00:54:09,040 --> 00:54:11,719
Speaker 4: it wins, share in our misery when it loses. But

1113
00:54:11,760 --> 00:54:14,040
Speaker 4: I think the most fun was actually being in person

1114
00:54:15,120 --> 00:54:17,560
Speaker 4: wild Card weekend in New Jersey with a lot of

1115
00:54:17,600 --> 00:54:21,560
Speaker 4: people that you know, watched convince me or read our

1116
00:54:21,640 --> 00:54:23,680
Speaker 4: articles and things like that. And the first game was

1117
00:54:23,680 --> 00:54:27,120
Speaker 4: the Texans Browns game. I had Dalton Schultz under forty

1118
00:54:27,120 --> 00:54:29,880
Speaker 4: two and a half receiving yards, and I think it

1119
00:54:29,920 --> 00:54:31,799
Speaker 4: was the very first drive of the game. He ran

1120
00:54:31,840 --> 00:54:34,000
Speaker 4: an out pattern. He was like wide open for fifteen

1121
00:54:34,080 --> 00:54:37,239
Speaker 4: yards and he dropped it and everybody at the bar,

1122
00:54:37,320 --> 00:54:39,000
Speaker 4: or a lot of people at the bar, turned and

1123
00:54:39,080 --> 00:54:41,040
Speaker 4: looked at me, and I was like, you know, about

1124
00:54:41,040 --> 00:54:44,640
Speaker 4: the faint. And then you know, later later in that half,

1125
00:54:45,120 --> 00:54:47,400
Speaker 4: he ended up catching like a thirty five yard catch,

1126
00:54:48,000 --> 00:54:51,600
Speaker 4: and everybody there was, you know, gasping and looking at me,

1127
00:54:52,400 --> 00:54:54,120
Speaker 4: and I thought it was toast at that point. But

1128
00:54:54,200 --> 00:54:57,479
Speaker 4: then he went the entire second half not catching another

1129
00:54:57,480 --> 00:54:59,840
Speaker 4: ball and it stayed under. But I think, just you know,

1130
00:55:00,080 --> 00:55:04,160
Speaker 4: hang out with people, you know, sweating it just when

1131
00:55:04,160 --> 00:55:07,600
Speaker 4: it comes to player props, like I said earlier, you're

1132
00:55:07,680 --> 00:55:11,759
Speaker 4: just betting on one specific outcome, one specific stat I

1133
00:55:11,760 --> 00:55:14,279
Speaker 4: think it makes the game more enjoyable, a little bit

1134
00:55:14,280 --> 00:55:17,160
Speaker 4: more nerve wracking. But again, I think sharing that experience

1135
00:55:17,239 --> 00:55:20,440
Speaker 4: with people, whether our discord or in person, has been

1136
00:55:20,440 --> 00:55:22,360
Speaker 4: one of like the best experiences when it comes to

1137
00:55:22,440 --> 00:55:23,280
Speaker 4: player prop betting.

1138
00:55:23,920 --> 00:55:25,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I'm sure it's rewarding too, even if it

1139
00:55:25,880 --> 00:55:28,680
Speaker 2: doesn't go well and it doesn't hit if your process

1140
00:55:28,719 --> 00:55:31,719
Speaker 2: plays out like exactly, yeah, you know, and I know

1141
00:55:31,760 --> 00:55:34,160
Speaker 2: that's like annoying, like he dropped it, you know, Dalton

1142
00:55:34,160 --> 00:55:37,160
Speaker 2: Schulz drops a ball or or a player that you

1143
00:55:37,280 --> 00:55:39,040
Speaker 2: hit an under on and he's not out there as

1144
00:55:39,080 --> 00:55:40,360
Speaker 2: much as you thought he was not going to be

1145
00:55:40,360 --> 00:55:43,600
Speaker 2: out So there is some vindication, especially in that live

1146
00:55:43,680 --> 00:55:46,759
Speaker 2: setting with whether it be friends, co workers, where you

1147
00:55:46,800 --> 00:55:48,799
Speaker 2: say to yourself, you know, it's like that, it's the

1148
00:55:48,840 --> 00:55:51,799
Speaker 2: adage like smart you know, it's a good bet even

1149
00:55:51,840 --> 00:55:54,920
Speaker 2: though it didn't win kind of thing or the process

1150
00:55:55,040 --> 00:55:56,799
Speaker 2: kind of it played out, but you know you had

1151
00:55:56,800 --> 00:56:00,480
Speaker 2: some ship luck on your side, So good stuff. If

1152
00:56:00,480 --> 00:56:04,000
Speaker 2: you're looking for access to action pro this NFL season.

1153
00:56:04,520 --> 00:56:06,399
Speaker 2: Now is the best time to sign up for less

1154
00:56:06,400 --> 00:56:09,160
Speaker 2: than ten dollars a month. Less than ten bucks get

1155
00:56:09,160 --> 00:56:13,560
Speaker 2: a year of Action Pro access, which includes sides totals,

1156
00:56:13,840 --> 00:56:17,399
Speaker 2: player prop picks, and projection edges from these guys, Sean

1157
00:56:17,480 --> 00:56:22,000
Speaker 2: Kerner and his Action Network analytics team across all of

1158
00:56:22,040 --> 00:56:25,279
Speaker 2: our sports, access to premium articles from the top experts,

1159
00:56:25,520 --> 00:56:28,160
Speaker 2: and so much more. To sign up now, visit actionnetwork

1160
00:56:28,200 --> 00:56:31,520
Speaker 2: dot com, slash pricing, or just follow the link in

1161
00:56:31,560 --> 00:56:34,000
Speaker 2: this episode description. Sean, anything you'd like to share on

1162
00:56:34,040 --> 00:56:36,080
Speaker 2: that front where people can maybe what people are going

1163
00:56:36,160 --> 00:56:37,640
Speaker 2: to get themselves into.

1164
00:56:37,880 --> 00:56:41,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, again, just follow us on the Action app Me

1165
00:56:41,640 --> 00:56:44,400
Speaker 4: and Chris. You can get all our picks there. Usually

1166
00:56:44,400 --> 00:56:47,920
Speaker 4: we're giving out analysis on every prop, whether it's articles

1167
00:56:48,000 --> 00:56:50,480
Speaker 4: or shows, but the Action app is the best place

1168
00:56:50,520 --> 00:56:51,520
Speaker 4: to find our stuff.

1169
00:56:52,480 --> 00:56:54,919
Speaker 2: Anything to plug there, Chris on the pro side of things,

1170
00:56:54,920 --> 00:56:56,080
Speaker 2: the Action Pro account.

1171
00:56:57,120 --> 00:57:00,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, be sure to uh.

1172
00:57:01,000 --> 00:57:04,960
Speaker 3: Just like Sean said, just subscribe to Action Pro and

1173
00:57:05,040 --> 00:57:07,480
Speaker 3: you're just gonna get so much good information. In addition

1174
00:57:07,600 --> 00:57:09,920
Speaker 3: to just us, you're gonna get all the tools to

1175
00:57:09,960 --> 00:57:13,840
Speaker 3: fish for yourself. You're gonna get the amount of money

1176
00:57:13,920 --> 00:57:16,080
Speaker 3: and bets on each you can get all projections and

1177
00:57:16,080 --> 00:57:21,520
Speaker 3: the biggest edges in props live updated prop odds. You

1178
00:57:21,520 --> 00:57:23,840
Speaker 3: know when the game is in progress, so if you

1179
00:57:23,880 --> 00:57:26,000
Speaker 3: do want to partake in those live bets, you can

1180
00:57:26,040 --> 00:57:28,640
Speaker 3: do that. So yeah, a lot of great stuff there

1181
00:57:29,240 --> 00:57:32,360
Speaker 3: with with Action pro very indispensable tool.

1182
00:57:33,200 --> 00:57:35,800
Speaker 2: Okay, and Chris is making his run to two decades

1183
00:57:35,880 --> 00:57:38,320
Speaker 2: like Kurner Curtis, we have to be concerned. I mean,

1184
00:57:38,360 --> 00:57:40,560
Speaker 2: two decades is a long time ian. Brady's now in

1185
00:57:40,600 --> 00:57:43,080
Speaker 2: the booth after two decades of playing the position. So

1186
00:57:43,120 --> 00:57:44,680
Speaker 2: do we have to worry about you at all? Like

1187
00:57:44,720 --> 00:57:45,800
Speaker 2: going into your twenty one?

1188
00:57:46,200 --> 00:57:48,840
Speaker 4: I could go with this another twenty plus years hopefully,

1189
00:57:49,080 --> 00:57:49,440
Speaker 4: all right?

1190
00:57:49,480 --> 00:57:52,520
Speaker 2: Sean Kerner, our director of predictive Analytics, Chris Raybond. These

1191
00:57:52,560 --> 00:57:55,400
Speaker 2: guys are available to in the free award winning Action

1192
00:57:55,520 --> 00:57:58,960
Speaker 2: Network app, Ready and locked and loaded for another NFL

1193
00:57:59,040 --> 00:58:02,720
Speaker 2: season of betting NFL player props. If you haven't already,

1194
00:58:02,760 --> 00:58:05,520
Speaker 2: you can check out the Experts Guide to Fantasy Football,

1195
00:58:05,520 --> 00:58:08,880
Speaker 2: which came out last week. Features Sean and Chris, available

1196
00:58:09,280 --> 00:58:11,560
Speaker 2: right here on the Action Network podcast. Brendan glass Sheen

1197
00:58:11,600 --> 00:58:13,960
Speaker 2: signing off thanks for tuning in the Action Network Podcast

1198
00:58:14,160 --> 00:58:17,880
Speaker 2: is presented by BETMGM Best of Luck betting NFL player

1199
00:58:17,880 --> 00:58:19,200
Speaker 2: prompts in twenty twenty four.

1200
00:58:29,240 --> 00:58:32,680
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1201
00:58:33,080 --> 00:58:36,040
Speaker 5: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1202
00:58:36,200 --> 00:58:38,840
Speaker 5: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1203
00:58:38,920 --> 00:58:39,720
Speaker 5: hundred gambler