1
00:00:00,320 --> 00:00:03,400
Speaker 1: Cable news is ripping us apart, dividing the nation, making

2
00:00:03,480 --> 00:00:05,920
Speaker 1: it impossible to function as a society and to know

3
00:00:05,960 --> 00:00:08,720
Speaker 1: what is true and what is false. The good news

4
00:00:08,800 --> 00:00:10,840
Speaker 1: is that they're failing and they know it. That is

5
00:00:10,840 --> 00:00:14,840
Speaker 1: why we're building something new. Be part of creating a new, better, healthier,

6
00:00:14,880 --> 00:00:17,920
Speaker 1: and more trustworthy mainstream by becoming a Breaking Points Premium

7
00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:21,520
Speaker 1: member today at breakingpoints dot com. Your hard earned money

8
00:00:21,560 --> 00:00:23,400
Speaker 1: is going to help us build for the midterms and

9
00:00:23,440 --> 00:00:27,400
Speaker 1: the upcoming presidential election so we can provide unparalleled coverage

10
00:00:27,400 --> 00:00:28,640
Speaker 1: of what is sure to be one of the most

11
00:00:28,640 --> 00:00:32,320
Speaker 1: pivotal moments in American history. So what are you waiting for?

12
00:00:32,520 --> 00:00:38,680
Speaker 1: Go to Breakingpoints dot com to help us out. Good morning, everybody,

13
00:00:38,680 --> 00:00:40,920
Speaker 1: Happy Monday. We have an amazing show for everybody today.

14
00:00:40,960 --> 00:00:42,720
Speaker 1: What do we have, Crystal. Indeed, we do a lot

15
00:00:42,720 --> 00:00:45,800
Speaker 1: of interesting stuff going on in the world, some GOP

16
00:00:46,040 --> 00:00:50,160
Speaker 1: in disarray, a lot of finger pointing already about potential

17
00:00:50,240 --> 00:00:54,400
Speaker 1: underperformance in the midterms. This is pretty interesting. McConnell's involved,

18
00:00:54,400 --> 00:00:58,319
Speaker 1: Trump's involved, Tucker's involve Handiti's involved. So we'll break all

19
00:00:58,360 --> 00:01:00,279
Speaker 1: of that down for you. We also have some new

20
00:01:00,280 --> 00:01:03,160
Speaker 1: polling from NBC news that is pretty interesting, very complex.

21
00:01:03,200 --> 00:01:05,000
Speaker 1: I mean, you really could see this election in any

22
00:01:05,040 --> 00:01:07,040
Speaker 1: number of ways. There are some numbers that are terrible

23
00:01:07,040 --> 00:01:09,280
Speaker 1: for Democrats, there are some numbers that are not good

24
00:01:09,319 --> 00:01:14,319
Speaker 1: for Republicans. So it's all very, very much less predictable

25
00:01:14,319 --> 00:01:16,200
Speaker 1: than I expected it to be just a couple of

26
00:01:16,240 --> 00:01:22,640
Speaker 1: months ago. Also, a carbomb killing a Kremlin ally in Moscow,

27
00:01:22,840 --> 00:01:26,200
Speaker 1: a lot of questions about who is responsible, what it means,

28
00:01:26,319 --> 00:01:29,520
Speaker 1: very dangerous situation ultimately that you know, has the potential

29
00:01:29,600 --> 00:01:33,080
Speaker 1: for escalation, putting domestic political pressure on Pudin to do

30
00:01:33,200 --> 00:01:35,559
Speaker 1: even more and be even more aggressive in this war.

31
00:01:35,920 --> 00:01:37,440
Speaker 1: So you'll break all of that down for you. A

32
00:01:37,440 --> 00:01:40,640
Speaker 1: lot of questions remain there. Also the very latest in

33
00:01:40,720 --> 00:01:45,000
Speaker 1: terms of the Trump ma a lago raid. The judge

34
00:01:45,040 --> 00:01:48,040
Speaker 1: actually said, and this surprised me, you know, the Department

35
00:01:48,080 --> 00:01:51,440
Speaker 1: of Justice said, we don't want the affidavit that justified

36
00:01:51,440 --> 00:01:53,240
Speaker 1: the search. We don't want that to be released. They

37
00:01:53,360 --> 00:01:56,960
Speaker 1: argued in favor of keeping that completely sealed. Coalition of

38
00:01:57,000 --> 00:01:59,440
Speaker 1: news organizations said no, there is a public interest in

39
00:01:59,520 --> 00:02:02,040
Speaker 1: knowing what is in this document. The judge has taken

40
00:02:02,120 --> 00:02:03,840
Speaker 1: kind of a middle ground and said, hey, I think

41
00:02:03,880 --> 00:02:07,120
Speaker 1: we should release it, but let's let the DOJ put

42
00:02:07,160 --> 00:02:09,200
Speaker 1: in what they think should be redacted from this, so

43
00:02:09,240 --> 00:02:11,600
Speaker 1: we'll break all of that down. And also, guys, I

44
00:02:11,639 --> 00:02:15,520
Speaker 1: know you are heartbroken. This morning, the Brian Stelter Show

45
00:02:15,600 --> 00:02:19,840
Speaker 1: Reliable Sources has officially come to an end. We're going

46
00:02:19,880 --> 00:02:21,640
Speaker 1: to get through this together. Guys. We'll bring you his

47
00:02:21,760 --> 00:02:26,840
Speaker 1: final stirring commentary from his final show and solemn Occasion. Yeah, indeed,

48
00:02:26,919 --> 00:02:29,720
Speaker 1: indeed solemn Occasion this morning. But before we get to

49
00:02:29,800 --> 00:02:32,919
Speaker 1: any of that live show, live show. Only a couple

50
00:02:33,000 --> 00:02:34,560
Speaker 1: tickets left. Let's go and put it up there on

51
00:02:34,560 --> 00:02:38,240
Speaker 1: this screen. September sixteenth, Atlanta. We are coming, Crystal, myself,

52
00:02:38,440 --> 00:02:40,240
Speaker 1: many other friends of the show. It's going to be

53
00:02:40,320 --> 00:02:42,880
Speaker 1: an awesome time. Go ahead and buy those. We want

54
00:02:42,880 --> 00:02:44,920
Speaker 1: to officially sell this thing out, folks, Let's go ahead

55
00:02:44,960 --> 00:02:47,000
Speaker 1: and do it. Like I said, only a few remaining,

56
00:02:47,040 --> 00:02:49,040
Speaker 1: go ahead and nab them and send us an email

57
00:02:49,080 --> 00:02:50,800
Speaker 1: if there are any issues. As a reminder to the

58
00:02:50,840 --> 00:02:53,440
Speaker 1: lifetime members, if you had gone ahead and bought tickets,

59
00:02:53,720 --> 00:02:56,200
Speaker 1: just forward your receipt as well to the customer service

60
00:02:56,200 --> 00:02:58,600
Speaker 1: line and those will be refunded closer to the day

61
00:02:58,680 --> 00:03:01,160
Speaker 1: of the show. Looking forward to it. I genuinely cannot wait.

62
00:03:01,200 --> 00:03:03,360
Speaker 1: You know, it is getting close because I've actually gotten

63
00:03:03,400 --> 00:03:07,160
Speaker 1: my babysitting logistics for my three kids secure, serious stuff

64
00:03:07,200 --> 00:03:10,440
Speaker 1: ready to go. So all of the obstacles have been cleared.

65
00:03:10,560 --> 00:03:12,680
Speaker 1: It is happening, and it is happening in less than

66
00:03:12,680 --> 00:03:16,560
Speaker 1: a month. All right, let's get to the Republicans in

67
00:03:16,639 --> 00:03:20,000
Speaker 1: disarray storyline here at the top. So Mitch McConnell got

68
00:03:20,000 --> 00:03:21,919
Speaker 1: in and put this NBC tear sheet up on the screen,

69
00:03:22,160 --> 00:03:24,920
Speaker 1: really cause a bit of a stir with some comments

70
00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:28,440
Speaker 1: that he made to a the Northern Kentucky Chamber of Commerce.

71
00:03:28,880 --> 00:03:33,200
Speaker 1: He says Republicans might not win Senate control, citing candidate

72
00:03:33,360 --> 00:03:37,080
Speaker 1: quality HM specifically, here were his comments are. He says,

73
00:03:37,480 --> 00:03:40,480
Speaker 1: I think there's probably a greater likelihood the House flips

74
00:03:40,480 --> 00:03:44,480
Speaker 1: than the Senate. Senate races are just different. Candidate quality

75
00:03:44,960 --> 00:03:48,960
Speaker 1: has a lot to do with the outcome. Now, when

76
00:03:49,000 --> 00:03:54,760
Speaker 1: you are the once and potentially future majority leader, Mitch

77
00:03:54,800 --> 00:03:58,520
Speaker 1: McConnell on the Republican side, and you are outright admitting

78
00:03:58,920 --> 00:04:02,280
Speaker 1: this far from elect that you think the Senate might

79
00:04:02,280 --> 00:04:04,680
Speaker 1: not flip, I mean that in and of itself is

80
00:04:04,880 --> 00:04:07,560
Speaker 1: quite noteworthy. That's huge, and it's very much seen as

81
00:04:07,640 --> 00:04:10,560
Speaker 1: shots fired at Trump because it's a lot of his

82
00:04:10,840 --> 00:04:14,040
Speaker 1: chosen candidates who are really underperforming. Here, let's go ahead

83
00:04:14,040 --> 00:04:16,280
Speaker 1: and put the five thirty eight numbers up on the screen,

84
00:04:16,320 --> 00:04:18,479
Speaker 1: and you know, guys, this can change. The polls have

85
00:04:18,560 --> 00:04:21,880
Speaker 1: been very wrong. They have consistently underestimated Republicans. So I

86
00:04:21,920 --> 00:04:23,560
Speaker 1: really want you to keep all of that in mind

87
00:04:23,560 --> 00:04:26,600
Speaker 1: as we're evaluating this data. But as of right now,

88
00:04:26,960 --> 00:04:30,480
Speaker 1: Democrats are favored by sixty three percent to thirty seven

89
00:04:30,480 --> 00:04:34,160
Speaker 1: percent to win control of the Senate. They are feeling

90
00:04:34,200 --> 00:04:36,080
Speaker 1: so bullish that there are some who are starting to

91
00:04:36,080 --> 00:04:38,280
Speaker 1: whisper maybe will not just keep control of the Senate,

92
00:04:38,320 --> 00:04:40,400
Speaker 1: maybe we will actually pick up a few seats and

93
00:04:40,400 --> 00:04:42,839
Speaker 1: pick up a little bit of ground. Now, the candidates

94
00:04:42,839 --> 00:04:46,200
Speaker 1: who are kind of widely seen as underperforming are which

95
00:04:46,360 --> 00:04:49,760
Speaker 1: we've talked about, all of Mere herschel Walker, doctor Oz.

96
00:04:49,800 --> 00:04:52,240
Speaker 1: Certainly those to your top of the list, also JD.

97
00:04:52,400 --> 00:04:55,800
Speaker 1: Vanson Ohio, who is by quite a lot of poles,

98
00:04:55,839 --> 00:04:59,320
Speaker 1: including their own Republican internals, down to Tim Ryan right now,

99
00:04:59,560 --> 00:05:02,479
Speaker 1: Blake Masters out in Arizona. All four of these seats

100
00:05:02,480 --> 00:05:05,920
Speaker 1: should have been basically layups for Republicans with the overall

101
00:05:05,920 --> 00:05:08,920
Speaker 1: political landscape that we're facing, and not only are they

102
00:05:08,920 --> 00:05:11,880
Speaker 1: struggling in some of these seats, they are just outright losing.

103
00:05:11,920 --> 00:05:13,800
Speaker 1: And it's pretty hard to deny. The last piece that

104
00:05:13,800 --> 00:05:16,320
Speaker 1: I'll put up here before getting your reactions, Tager is

105
00:05:16,720 --> 00:05:19,800
Speaker 1: part of the problem, and you know that reveals a

106
00:05:19,839 --> 00:05:23,680
Speaker 1: lot about flagging Republican sort of enthusiasm and momentum. The

107
00:05:23,800 --> 00:05:27,839
Speaker 1: fundraising numbers for these Republicans almost across the board is

108
00:05:28,240 --> 00:05:31,320
Speaker 1: pretty dismal. Let's go ouad and put this up on

109
00:05:31,360 --> 00:05:34,200
Speaker 1: the screen. Huge disparis. I know it's a little bit

110
00:05:34,200 --> 00:05:35,680
Speaker 1: hard to see, but I'll read you some of the

111
00:05:35,760 --> 00:05:38,760
Speaker 1: numbers here between the Democratic candidates and what they have

112
00:05:38,880 --> 00:05:41,560
Speaker 1: cash on hand and the Republican candidates. So as a

113
00:05:41,600 --> 00:05:45,560
Speaker 1: couple of examples, down in Georgia, you have Raphael Warnock

114
00:05:45,800 --> 00:05:48,760
Speaker 1: with twenty two million in the bank versus Herschel Walker,

115
00:05:48,760 --> 00:05:51,000
Speaker 1: who's actually in better shape than most of the other Republicans,

116
00:05:51,000 --> 00:05:53,880
Speaker 1: with six point eight million, but still a massive disparity there.

117
00:05:54,200 --> 00:05:58,159
Speaker 1: You've got Mark Kelly out in Arizona with twenty five

118
00:05:58,279 --> 00:06:00,919
Speaker 1: million cash on hand versus Blake only has one and

119
00:06:00,920 --> 00:06:03,520
Speaker 1: a half million, And this one is really quite stunning.

120
00:06:03,520 --> 00:06:06,159
Speaker 1: Tim Ryan pulling in three point six million. That's his

121
00:06:06,240 --> 00:06:07,840
Speaker 1: cash on hands house, that's what he has in the

122
00:06:07,880 --> 00:06:11,880
Speaker 1: bank jd vance less than a million dollars, only six

123
00:06:12,200 --> 00:06:16,840
Speaker 1: hundred thousand dollars in his bank account at the end

124
00:06:16,920 --> 00:06:20,600
Speaker 1: of last quarter. And this is consistent something we've been tracking,

125
00:06:20,760 --> 00:06:23,359
Speaker 1: you know, sort of at every level. The grassroots fundraising

126
00:06:23,360 --> 00:06:25,839
Speaker 1: has dried up. There are a lot of questions about

127
00:06:25,839 --> 00:06:30,280
Speaker 1: how the National Republican Senatorial Committee has been spending their money.

128
00:06:30,320 --> 00:06:33,080
Speaker 1: They blew through a whole lot of cash and now

129
00:06:33,200 --> 00:06:36,039
Speaker 1: are having to pull ads down in key battleground states.

130
00:06:36,200 --> 00:06:38,479
Speaker 1: They're having to spend money in places like Ohio that

131
00:06:38,520 --> 00:06:40,840
Speaker 1: they really didn't think they were going to have to

132
00:06:41,560 --> 00:06:44,160
Speaker 1: spend money on in order to win. And so there

133
00:06:44,160 --> 00:06:45,840
Speaker 1: are a lot of structural issues here that are kind

134
00:06:45,839 --> 00:06:47,880
Speaker 1: of cropping up for the Republican absolutely, and I just

135
00:06:47,920 --> 00:06:50,800
Speaker 1: think though it's always important to present the caveats. I mean,

136
00:06:50,880 --> 00:06:54,160
Speaker 1: Susan Collins was down what ten right before election day.

137
00:06:54,640 --> 00:06:57,000
Speaker 1: Tom Tillis was supposed to be a dead man walking

138
00:06:57,160 --> 00:07:00,679
Speaker 1: in North Carolina. There were a couple of other Senate seats,

139
00:07:00,720 --> 00:07:03,120
Speaker 1: I mean, even if you go back to twenty eighteen,

140
00:07:03,440 --> 00:07:06,359
Speaker 1: if you'll recall Marshall Blackburn was supposedly, you know, in

141
00:07:06,400 --> 00:07:09,240
Speaker 1: a tight race. Remember also even Jamie Harrison, they said

142
00:07:09,279 --> 00:07:11,200
Speaker 1: it's like, oh, within two or three point I mean

143
00:07:11,240 --> 00:07:14,920
Speaker 1: lost by seventeen points, right, So anyway, that's the caveat. Also,

144
00:07:15,000 --> 00:07:16,840
Speaker 1: you know, I was talking with some people who work

145
00:07:16,840 --> 00:07:19,400
Speaker 1: in these circles. Their counter to this is that the

146
00:07:19,440 --> 00:07:22,720
Speaker 1: Democrats are a wash in post Dobbs cash and in

147
00:07:22,760 --> 00:07:25,440
Speaker 1: a way may actually be blowing their wad a little

148
00:07:25,480 --> 00:07:27,840
Speaker 1: bit too early. Part of the problem is that because

149
00:07:27,920 --> 00:07:29,960
Speaker 1: right now it's in August, they have all this cash,

150
00:07:29,960 --> 00:07:33,720
Speaker 1: they have the media spots available. Is that the Republicans, Again,

151
00:07:33,800 --> 00:07:35,440
Speaker 1: this is the counter So I am not saying this

152
00:07:35,480 --> 00:07:37,520
Speaker 1: is necessarily the case. They're like, look, we're not going

153
00:07:37,600 --> 00:07:39,720
Speaker 1: to spend our money in the summer. We're going to

154
00:07:39,760 --> 00:07:42,080
Speaker 1: try and spend our money all the way come to

155
00:07:42,120 --> 00:07:44,400
Speaker 1: elect Well, that's that's obviously cope. When they just don't

156
00:07:44,400 --> 00:07:46,920
Speaker 1: have as much money, they don't have, you right, It'd

157
00:07:46,960 --> 00:07:49,120
Speaker 1: be one thing if yeah, Democrats had raised a bunch

158
00:07:49,120 --> 00:07:51,560
Speaker 1: of money and they spent it all. But Republicans are

159
00:07:51,560 --> 00:07:53,960
Speaker 1: in the very bad position of Yeah, Democrats have been

160
00:07:53,960 --> 00:07:56,320
Speaker 1: in a lot of these races, out spending them and

161
00:07:56,360 --> 00:07:58,280
Speaker 1: defining them on their erwords, and we think about Fetterman

162
00:07:58,320 --> 00:08:00,760
Speaker 1: and odds how Fetterman jumps right too. Oz isn't even

163
00:08:00,800 --> 00:08:03,400
Speaker 1: on the air. And yet you know they're behind in

164
00:08:03,480 --> 00:08:05,600
Speaker 1: terms of fundraising, so they're in a position where they

165
00:08:05,680 --> 00:08:08,400
Speaker 1: need to make up the gap with a flood of

166
00:08:08,440 --> 00:08:11,520
Speaker 1: post Labor Day advertising and as of right now, you

167
00:08:11,560 --> 00:08:15,120
Speaker 1: know they are very much behind. As one indication of

168
00:08:15,560 --> 00:08:18,640
Speaker 1: how dire the cash situation has gotten for some of

169
00:08:18,640 --> 00:08:23,160
Speaker 1: these Republicans. Blake Masters, who's the Sena nominee in Arizona aforementioned,

170
00:08:23,160 --> 00:08:24,920
Speaker 1: who was backed by Trump and Trump really kind of

171
00:08:24,920 --> 00:08:27,120
Speaker 1: cleared the field for him and put him in position

172
00:08:27,160 --> 00:08:29,120
Speaker 1: to win. He also had a lot of support from

173
00:08:29,160 --> 00:08:32,640
Speaker 1: Peter Teal financially in the in the primary, used to

174
00:08:32,720 --> 00:08:34,840
Speaker 1: work for him, and not clear that Teal is going

175
00:08:34,920 --> 00:08:36,600
Speaker 1: to come in for him or jd Vance, who was

176
00:08:36,600 --> 00:08:39,640
Speaker 1: his other big candidate in the general election, so that's

177
00:08:39,720 --> 00:08:43,000
Speaker 1: kind of a big question mark. But Masters, in order

178
00:08:43,080 --> 00:08:45,360
Speaker 1: to win the primary, he went all in and like

179
00:08:45,400 --> 00:08:47,960
Speaker 1: trashing miss McConnell, jump cool was saying he would not

180
00:08:48,080 --> 00:08:50,920
Speaker 1: support him for leadership that he was going to vote for.

181
00:08:51,080 --> 00:08:53,079
Speaker 1: He said, Tom Cotton or I don't remember, somebody else,

182
00:08:53,120 --> 00:08:56,200
Speaker 1: Josh Holly or something like that. Now that he is

183
00:08:56,240 --> 00:08:59,680
Speaker 1: struggling in terms of cash and behind in cash on hand,

184
00:08:59,679 --> 00:09:03,240
Speaker 1: by Lake twenty four million dollars to Mark Kelly. Now

185
00:09:03,240 --> 00:09:04,920
Speaker 1: he's changed this, dun Let's go and put this up

186
00:09:04,960 --> 00:09:08,360
Speaker 1: on this screed. It says he's hopeful the GOP leader

187
00:09:08,520 --> 00:09:11,280
Speaker 1: is going to offer financial support. He says, I think

188
00:09:11,320 --> 00:09:13,800
Speaker 1: he'll come in and spend. Arizona's going to be competitive.

189
00:09:13,800 --> 00:09:15,960
Speaker 1: It's going to be a close race. I hope he

190
00:09:16,000 --> 00:09:19,000
Speaker 1: does come in and sager. He says, we'll find a

191
00:09:19,040 --> 00:09:22,040
Speaker 1: way to work together. He goes on to make his pitch.

192
00:09:22,040 --> 00:09:24,160
Speaker 1: I mean, this is just shamelessly begging for gash here.

193
00:09:24,440 --> 00:09:26,679
Speaker 1: I think I'm a much better candidate than Mitch mcconald

194
00:09:26,720 --> 00:09:29,000
Speaker 1: gives me credit for. He says, let me just say

195
00:09:29,160 --> 00:09:32,240
Speaker 1: this is not gone unnoticed in Washington, and as fans

196
00:09:32,320 --> 00:09:35,520
Speaker 1: passed around quite a bit in certain circles and made

197
00:09:35,520 --> 00:09:36,920
Speaker 1: its way to me, and I was like, hey, you know,

198
00:09:37,000 --> 00:09:38,520
Speaker 1: it's actually a good story. I got to give it

199
00:09:38,559 --> 00:09:40,600
Speaker 1: to him. So there's a lot of gloating in some

200
00:09:40,960 --> 00:09:44,640
Speaker 1: closed doors here in DC, saying like, oh yeah, everybody

201
00:09:44,679 --> 00:09:47,040
Speaker 1: trashes him till they need the money, until you're the guest.

202
00:09:47,120 --> 00:09:49,280
Speaker 1: Here's some people forget not only the NRSC, which is

203
00:09:49,360 --> 00:09:51,559
Speaker 1: run by Rick Scott, but the Senate Leadership Fund, which

204
00:09:51,600 --> 00:09:54,360
Speaker 1: is directly controlled by Mitch McConnell and his superpack is

205
00:09:54,600 --> 00:09:57,920
Speaker 1: tens to hundreds of millions of dollars potentially. And look,

206
00:09:57,960 --> 00:10:01,480
Speaker 1: Masters is fighting for his life. He's already probably see

207
00:10:01,520 --> 00:10:03,440
Speaker 1: this is the hard part to parse, which is that

208
00:10:03,520 --> 00:10:06,000
Speaker 1: the advance poll. I just honestly don't believe it. I'm like, look,

209
00:10:06,040 --> 00:10:07,640
Speaker 1: I think he's gonna win. I think he'll probably win

210
00:10:07,679 --> 00:10:09,440
Speaker 1: by like four, he should have won by ten, but

211
00:10:09,559 --> 00:10:11,800
Speaker 1: he'll probably still pull it out. OZ for him is

212
00:10:11,840 --> 00:10:13,800
Speaker 1: that they're having to spend money there exactly. Yeah, So

213
00:10:13,960 --> 00:10:15,480
Speaker 1: the problem for him is they're gonna have to spend money.

214
00:10:15,480 --> 00:10:17,559
Speaker 1: But I just don't see it. OZ. I still think

215
00:10:17,600 --> 00:10:19,960
Speaker 1: it's like fifty five to forty five. I don't think

216
00:10:20,000 --> 00:10:22,319
Speaker 1: it should be. I'm talking in Fetterman's direction. Is still

217
00:10:22,320 --> 00:10:24,200
Speaker 1: a little bit too close. But I have confidence he

218
00:10:24,400 --> 00:10:26,200
Speaker 1: might be able to pull it across the finish line.

219
00:10:26,320 --> 00:10:29,800
Speaker 1: But it will be incredibly tight. Masters is legitimately, I

220
00:10:29,800 --> 00:10:33,040
Speaker 1: think in trouble because Mark Kelly, not only in terms

221
00:10:33,080 --> 00:10:36,160
Speaker 1: of candidate quality, but the guy is not a nationally

222
00:10:36,200 --> 00:10:39,120
Speaker 1: defined Democrat in the way that Cinema or any of

223
00:10:39,160 --> 00:10:41,959
Speaker 1: the other any of the other people who are kind

224
00:10:41,960 --> 00:10:44,559
Speaker 1: of up are in the same way. For the media.

225
00:10:44,640 --> 00:10:47,160
Speaker 1: You know, Mark Kelly did his very first Sunday interview

226
00:10:47,200 --> 00:10:50,680
Speaker 1: as a senator this weekend. The guy has no profile,

227
00:10:50,720 --> 00:10:52,600
Speaker 1: and I was actually doing some reading over the weekend.

228
00:10:52,880 --> 00:10:54,800
Speaker 1: Almost all the interviews he gives are like to the

229
00:10:54,840 --> 00:10:58,000
Speaker 1: Arizona Central or you know, the Phoenix newspaper or something,

230
00:10:58,080 --> 00:11:00,480
Speaker 1: and all he talks about is like water access issues

231
00:11:00,480 --> 00:11:04,600
Speaker 1: for ranchers. He's actually quite a localist politician, doesn't play

232
00:11:04,679 --> 00:11:07,600
Speaker 1: up his you know, machinations behind the scenes. Hees votes

233
00:11:07,600 --> 00:11:10,040
Speaker 1: with Biden, but very rarely seen with Biden. These are

234
00:11:10,080 --> 00:11:12,440
Speaker 1: all things that I think defined, you know, a popular politician.

235
00:11:12,480 --> 00:11:13,839
Speaker 1: On top of it, Look, he's got a good bio

236
00:11:13,920 --> 00:11:16,520
Speaker 1: right married to Gabby Gifford. It's very popular in the state.

237
00:11:16,559 --> 00:11:18,440
Speaker 1: There's a lot of sympathy not only for her, and

238
00:11:18,480 --> 00:11:20,199
Speaker 1: he's a hero astronaut. So it's like you put those

239
00:11:20,240 --> 00:11:22,440
Speaker 1: couple of things together. This is a tough prob and

240
00:11:22,559 --> 00:11:25,280
Speaker 1: you know, masters shot himself in the foot two different cases.

241
00:11:25,320 --> 00:11:27,240
Speaker 1: Number one was the Griswold thing that he put on

242
00:11:27,280 --> 00:11:30,079
Speaker 1: his the birth control contraception case, you know, and he's

243
00:11:30,080 --> 00:11:31,760
Speaker 1: not going to vote for any Supreme Court justice that

244
00:11:31,760 --> 00:11:33,720
Speaker 1: doesn't commit to overturning that. He put it on his

245
00:11:33,720 --> 00:11:35,440
Speaker 1: website in the primary. There's no reason to do that,

246
00:11:35,559 --> 00:11:38,280
Speaker 1: right except I mean there really literally is no reason. Second,

247
00:11:38,440 --> 00:11:40,880
Speaker 1: you know, saying he wants to privatize social Security, so

248
00:11:40,960 --> 00:11:43,520
Speaker 1: you put the abortion contraception thing on one end, which

249
00:11:43,600 --> 00:11:45,880
Speaker 1: is getting bombarded with on the air. And then if

250
00:11:45,920 --> 00:11:47,520
Speaker 1: I was Mark Kelly, you know, I would just run

251
00:11:47,600 --> 00:11:50,880
Speaker 1: that privatizing social Security clip all day long. He is

252
00:11:51,400 --> 00:11:54,160
Speaker 1: and he is, of course he is. And that's what

253
00:11:54,440 --> 00:11:57,000
Speaker 1: if we'll recall the this is always funny because Cinema,

254
00:11:57,040 --> 00:11:59,160
Speaker 1: now that we remember her, the way that she beat

255
00:11:59,280 --> 00:12:04,000
Speaker 1: Martha McSally is Obamacare. It was all Martha McSally voted

256
00:12:04,000 --> 00:12:07,320
Speaker 1: to take away Obamacare. And Martha McSally is on record

257
00:12:07,360 --> 00:12:10,000
Speaker 1: saying that vote is almost definitively what sunk her wow

258
00:12:10,040 --> 00:12:12,840
Speaker 1: in the state of Arizona. Yeah, in her post interviews,

259
00:12:12,880 --> 00:12:14,480
Speaker 1: even though she was like appointed and then she ran

260
00:12:14,720 --> 00:12:18,600
Speaker 1: she lost again, which is pathetic. She was also didn't

261
00:12:18,640 --> 00:12:21,720
Speaker 1: we interview her? I think we interviewed her and she

262
00:12:21,920 --> 00:12:25,920
Speaker 1: was like the most wooden, just terrible candidate. She has

263
00:12:25,960 --> 00:12:30,160
Speaker 1: a nice story that you can possibly imagine. Yeah, I mean,

264
00:12:30,280 --> 00:12:34,199
Speaker 1: you know they're listen as I keep saying, the Republican

265
00:12:34,320 --> 00:12:37,120
Speaker 1: it should be a slam done for a lot of

266
00:12:37,160 --> 00:12:39,600
Speaker 1: these candidates. I mean, they shouldn't have to spend money

267
00:12:39,640 --> 00:12:42,240
Speaker 1: in Ohio, and they're spending a lot. So the NRSC

268
00:12:42,920 --> 00:12:46,280
Speaker 1: is spending twenty eight million dollars I think in OHI

269
00:12:46,440 --> 00:12:48,800
Speaker 1: is a huge number that they're having to spend in

270
00:12:48,920 --> 00:12:52,360
Speaker 1: Ohio to try to get Jade Vance across the finish line.

271
00:12:52,400 --> 00:12:54,360
Speaker 1: And I agree with you, it's Ohio. I don't think

272
00:12:54,360 --> 00:12:57,320
Speaker 1: Tim Ryan's gonna win, but you shouldn't be having to

273
00:12:57,320 --> 00:13:00,240
Speaker 1: put down cash in that state. That should have been

274
00:13:00,280 --> 00:13:03,960
Speaker 1: an absolute layup. So you now have a lot of

275
00:13:04,000 --> 00:13:07,520
Speaker 1: Republican consultants and Senate hopefuls who were like, what the

276
00:13:07,559 --> 00:13:10,280
Speaker 1: hell happened to all your money too? At the national level,

277
00:13:10,360 --> 00:13:11,800
Speaker 1: let's go and put this up on the screen. This

278
00:13:11,840 --> 00:13:15,800
Speaker 1: is also kind of hilarious. It's a ripoff, GOP spending

279
00:13:15,880 --> 00:13:18,959
Speaker 1: under fire a Senate hopefuls seek rescue. You have all

280
00:13:18,960 --> 00:13:22,520
Speaker 1: these people who are calling for an audit of the

281
00:13:22,640 --> 00:13:26,280
Speaker 1: National Republican Senatorial Committee. They say they're getting you know,

282
00:13:26,280 --> 00:13:28,640
Speaker 1: the Senate hopefuls are getting crushed on the airwaves across

283
00:13:28,640 --> 00:13:31,320
Speaker 1: the country while their national campaign fund is pulling ads

284
00:13:31,320 --> 00:13:33,960
Speaker 1: and running low on cash, leading some campaign advisors to

285
00:13:34,000 --> 00:13:36,840
Speaker 1: ask where all the money went and demand an audit

286
00:13:36,880 --> 00:13:41,200
Speaker 1: of the committee's finances. Corny Republican strategst involvement discussions the

287
00:13:41,320 --> 00:13:44,920
Speaker 1: nrsc's retreat cam after months of touting record fundraising topping

288
00:13:44,960 --> 00:13:47,040
Speaker 1: one hundred and seventy three million dollars so far this

289
00:13:47,080 --> 00:13:49,640
Speaker 1: election cycle, but the committee has burned through nearly all

290
00:13:49,640 --> 00:13:51,600
Speaker 1: of it, with their cash on hand dwelling to twenty

291
00:13:51,640 --> 00:13:54,839
Speaker 1: eight million dollars by the end of June. So this

292
00:13:54,880 --> 00:13:56,520
Speaker 1: is another you know, we saw this in the Trump

293
00:13:56,520 --> 00:13:59,760
Speaker 1: campaign too. Remember they had that massive war chest and

294
00:14:00,080 --> 00:14:02,840
Speaker 1: were heading into that election like, jeez, the Democrats are

295
00:14:02,960 --> 00:14:05,520
Speaker 1: going to be swamped by this amount of money that

296
00:14:05,559 --> 00:14:08,079
Speaker 1: he's been able to raise. And then oh on, Brad

297
00:14:08,120 --> 00:14:09,800
Speaker 1: pars Gal and I don't know who else got their

298
00:14:09,840 --> 00:14:12,160
Speaker 1: hands in the cookie jar, but that money was gone,

299
00:14:12,400 --> 00:14:15,160
Speaker 1: and towards the end, the Trump campaign was having poll

300
00:14:15,280 --> 00:14:17,680
Speaker 1: ads in like you know, Key, I think him in

301
00:14:17,679 --> 00:14:21,120
Speaker 1: Wisconsin and other key battleground states because they just literally

302
00:14:21,160 --> 00:14:24,080
Speaker 1: didn't have the money. And there's echoes of that here.

303
00:14:24,320 --> 00:14:26,120
Speaker 1: They had plenty of money in the bank, one hundred

304
00:14:26,120 --> 00:14:29,360
Speaker 1: and seventy three million dollars so far, and now where

305
00:14:29,440 --> 00:14:31,760
Speaker 1: is it. It's gone as you come down the stretch,

306
00:14:32,120 --> 00:14:37,080
Speaker 1: and Republican online donations have flagged, so they're raising money

307
00:14:37,120 --> 00:14:40,640
Speaker 1: at a slower clip, and they've had to pull pull

308
00:14:40,680 --> 00:14:44,280
Speaker 1: their advice in some of these critical areas. So again,

309
00:14:44,400 --> 00:14:47,000
Speaker 1: I don't know that these things are going to be determinive,

310
00:14:47,360 --> 00:14:50,760
Speaker 1: especially in a sort of national, you know environment, where

311
00:14:50,880 --> 00:14:52,640
Speaker 1: a lot of what's going to happen here is going

312
00:14:52,680 --> 00:14:54,320
Speaker 1: to be based on the national wins, how people feel

313
00:14:54,320 --> 00:14:57,000
Speaker 1: about the country, how people feel about Joe Biden potentially

314
00:14:57,040 --> 00:14:59,160
Speaker 1: if Trump were to announced, but how they feel about Trump,

315
00:14:59,480 --> 00:15:02,200
Speaker 1: all these their factors. Certainly, Dobs plays into all of this,

316
00:15:02,400 --> 00:15:06,560
Speaker 1: but it is an indication of number one, like total disorganization,

317
00:15:07,600 --> 00:15:11,880
Speaker 1: foolish decision making, and then the terrible candidates who have

318
00:15:12,000 --> 00:15:14,720
Speaker 1: ended up in some of these races. Phenomena. It is

319
00:15:14,760 --> 00:15:17,240
Speaker 1: funny too, because of course the establishment wing wants to

320
00:15:17,280 --> 00:15:19,280
Speaker 1: blame you know, Trump for all of this, but hey,

321
00:15:19,400 --> 00:15:22,600
Speaker 1: Rick Scott is the one running the NRSC and by

322
00:15:22,640 --> 00:15:24,240
Speaker 1: the way, I don't know if people know this, Rick

323
00:15:24,240 --> 00:15:26,920
Speaker 1: Scott is worth like one hundred million dollars because the

324
00:15:26,960 --> 00:15:29,160
Speaker 1: way that he even came to office was he was

325
00:15:29,160 --> 00:15:32,280
Speaker 1: like CEO of some healthcare company which eventually was investigated

326
00:15:32,320 --> 00:15:34,640
Speaker 1: I think for fraud, but anyway, he made it quite

327
00:15:34,640 --> 00:15:36,560
Speaker 1: a bit of money there. And what his pitch was

328
00:15:36,600 --> 00:15:38,320
Speaker 1: when he's running for governor and the later senter He's like,

329
00:15:38,400 --> 00:15:40,680
Speaker 1: I'm a businessman, I understand how the free market works,

330
00:15:40,920 --> 00:15:43,120
Speaker 1: all of that. And yet what they're quoting is that

331
00:15:43,200 --> 00:15:46,000
Speaker 1: National Republican consultant says if they were a corporation, the

332
00:15:46,080 --> 00:15:50,000
Speaker 1: CEO would be fired and investigated. It's like, well, I guess,

333
00:15:50,040 --> 00:15:52,880
Speaker 1: you know, given Scott's track record, kind of makes sense. Yeah,

334
00:15:52,920 --> 00:15:54,720
Speaker 1: the way this money has been burned, there needs to

335
00:15:54,720 --> 00:15:56,800
Speaker 1: be an audit or investigation because we're not going to

336
00:15:56,800 --> 00:15:58,800
Speaker 1: take the Senate now and this money has been squandered.

337
00:15:58,840 --> 00:16:00,960
Speaker 1: I mean, blaming it all on money I think is

338
00:16:01,040 --> 00:16:03,360
Speaker 1: obviously cove Candidate quality is going to have an immense

339
00:16:03,600 --> 00:16:05,920
Speaker 1: amount to do with it. That being said, they should

340
00:16:05,960 --> 00:16:09,160
Speaker 1: not have spent one hundred and fifty million dollars. I mean,

341
00:16:09,200 --> 00:16:11,640
Speaker 1: where did it go? Nothing? I mean to have all

342
00:16:11,680 --> 00:16:14,560
Speaker 1: their candidates basically. And if I think back to the

343
00:16:14,560 --> 00:16:17,320
Speaker 1: Democratic point that I made earlier about how Dems have

344
00:16:17,480 --> 00:16:20,400
Speaker 1: all this money came in after Dobbs through Act Blue

345
00:16:20,720 --> 00:16:23,640
Speaker 1: and this big mon and this like the national fundraising infrastructure,

346
00:16:23,880 --> 00:16:25,920
Speaker 1: and the whole point was they were blowing their money early. Well,

347
00:16:25,960 --> 00:16:28,200
Speaker 1: then the Republicans blew it even earlier if they had

348
00:16:28,240 --> 00:16:30,640
Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty So where is this money happening?

349
00:16:30,640 --> 00:16:32,920
Speaker 1: I mean, I think that is actually the I mean

350
00:16:33,200 --> 00:16:36,080
Speaker 1: gigantic scandal, not a real one, as in, I'm not

351
00:16:36,080 --> 00:16:37,880
Speaker 1: going to cry for you know, like I'm not going

352
00:16:37,920 --> 00:16:40,000
Speaker 1: to cry for big money donors who gaw their money

353
00:16:40,000 --> 00:16:41,880
Speaker 1: away and it was pissed away. But you know, these

354
00:16:41,920 --> 00:16:45,200
Speaker 1: things that are given to a certain political end, and

355
00:16:45,480 --> 00:16:47,280
Speaker 1: we don't see a hell of a lot of that.

356
00:16:47,400 --> 00:16:50,760
Speaker 1: So I think that is a major, one fascinating and

357
00:16:51,120 --> 00:16:54,120
Speaker 1: interesting move happening over in Moscow. Let's go and put

358
00:16:54,120 --> 00:16:57,640
Speaker 1: this up there on the screen. Daria Dugina, she's the

359
00:16:57,760 --> 00:17:02,680
Speaker 1: daughter of Alexander Duken of Putin, ally was killed in

360
00:17:02,760 --> 00:17:07,720
Speaker 1: a car bomb on the highway outside of Moscow. So Tuguina,

361
00:17:08,040 --> 00:17:10,880
Speaker 1: the daughter of Alexander Dugan who I've spoken about, actually

362
00:17:10,920 --> 00:17:13,960
Speaker 1: did an entire monologue about him after the Russian invasion

363
00:17:13,960 --> 00:17:17,080
Speaker 1: of Ukraine. You know, people describe him as an ultranationalist,

364
00:17:17,160 --> 00:17:19,760
Speaker 1: but I think the better way is a true like

365
00:17:20,119 --> 00:17:25,680
Speaker 1: Russian czar raventist, you know, somebody who generally genuinely believes

366
00:17:25,720 --> 00:17:28,639
Speaker 1: in like the premissy of the Russian nation, of like

367
00:17:28,880 --> 00:17:32,680
Speaker 1: the Russian people of like restoring essentially the Russian Empire.

368
00:17:32,840 --> 00:17:34,639
Speaker 1: This hasn't a letter to do with the Soviet Union

369
00:17:34,640 --> 00:17:36,960
Speaker 1: in more like the hundreds of years of Russian history

370
00:17:36,960 --> 00:17:39,239
Speaker 1: that preceded him. As I said, if you're interested, you

371
00:17:39,280 --> 00:17:41,399
Speaker 1: go back and watch that monologue. I quoted some of

372
00:17:41,400 --> 00:17:43,000
Speaker 1: the things that he talks about in the way that

373
00:17:43,080 --> 00:17:46,159
Speaker 1: Putin allies can see the world. To be clear, Putin

374
00:17:46,280 --> 00:17:48,399
Speaker 1: and his circle have always kind of held him at

375
00:17:48,400 --> 00:17:49,959
Speaker 1: an arms length and kind of seen him as a

376
00:17:50,119 --> 00:17:52,040
Speaker 1: kind of crazy figure, which you know, he almost looks

377
00:17:52,040 --> 00:17:55,840
Speaker 1: like Rasputin, so makes sense anyway. His daughter was killed

378
00:17:55,920 --> 00:17:58,879
Speaker 1: in a Toyota land cruiser driving just twenty miles west

379
00:17:59,040 --> 00:18:02,479
Speaker 1: outside of Moscow. Now reportedly Dugan himself was actually supposed

380
00:18:02,520 --> 00:18:04,680
Speaker 1: to be in the car, and so he was very

381
00:18:04,760 --> 00:18:08,760
Speaker 1: likely the target of this assassination attempt. Now in terms

382
00:18:08,760 --> 00:18:11,800
Speaker 1: of the assassination attempt, and then obviously she was killed

383
00:18:11,960 --> 00:18:15,560
Speaker 1: as well. A major murder investigation has now been launched

384
00:18:15,600 --> 00:18:18,399
Speaker 1: by the Russian police, and this is where things of

385
00:18:18,440 --> 00:18:22,840
Speaker 1: course become interesting, because it can create political pressure from

386
00:18:22,880 --> 00:18:27,040
Speaker 1: all different sides. Immediately the Ukrainians and Ukrainian officials were like,

387
00:18:27,080 --> 00:18:28,720
Speaker 1: we didn't have anything to do with this, Yes, we

388
00:18:28,760 --> 00:18:31,680
Speaker 1: hate Dugan, this was not us, you know, don't try

389
00:18:31,680 --> 00:18:34,160
Speaker 1: and do this. So they're trying to distance themselves obviously

390
00:18:34,160 --> 00:18:36,800
Speaker 1: from the attack. At the same time, they are now

391
00:18:36,920 --> 00:18:41,760
Speaker 1: opening investigations and pointing fingers in many different directions Crystal,

392
00:18:41,840 --> 00:18:43,920
Speaker 1: which you have some of the details on, yeah, which

393
00:18:43,920 --> 00:18:46,520
Speaker 1: is interesting, But like the major point is is that

394
00:18:46,640 --> 00:18:49,959
Speaker 1: to have an assassination of such a high profile putin

395
00:18:50,080 --> 00:18:53,680
Speaker 1: ally alternationalists in the city, there's a variety of options.

396
00:18:53,760 --> 00:18:57,600
Speaker 1: It could be legitimate Russian opposition, it could be you know,

397
00:18:57,800 --> 00:19:01,720
Speaker 1: a targeted killing by the Russian state, allies or whatever

398
00:19:01,800 --> 00:19:04,359
Speaker 1: in order to put pressure on Putin in order to

399
00:19:04,400 --> 00:19:07,359
Speaker 1: ramp things up and have a revenge campaign, or it

400
00:19:07,400 --> 00:19:10,000
Speaker 1: could be a domestic operation. You should put none of

401
00:19:10,000 --> 00:19:12,840
Speaker 1: these things past. And the klin and their opponents could

402
00:19:12,880 --> 00:19:15,360
Speaker 1: be the Ukrainians, I mean it really also could who knows,

403
00:19:15,440 --> 00:19:18,199
Speaker 1: or Ukrainian affiliated people, I mean, who the hell knows. Right, So,

404
00:19:18,280 --> 00:19:21,960
Speaker 1: before we get into you know, what the FSB is saying,

405
00:19:22,240 --> 00:19:25,280
Speaker 1: and there was another dude who actually claimed credit that

406
00:19:25,320 --> 00:19:27,359
Speaker 1: you should be very skeptical of. Before I get into

407
00:19:27,359 --> 00:19:30,240
Speaker 1: all of that, I think the really important thing to

408
00:19:30,320 --> 00:19:34,400
Speaker 1: understand is that you know, this is quite an extraordinary

409
00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:38,400
Speaker 1: whoever is behind it, it really does sort of scramble

410
00:19:38,440 --> 00:19:42,520
Speaker 1: the domestic political landscape for Putin and could potentially put

411
00:19:42,560 --> 00:19:45,520
Speaker 1: more pressure on him. Because remember, as much as Putin

412
00:19:45,640 --> 00:19:48,359
Speaker 1: is like, you know, an asshole and a hardliner and

413
00:19:48,359 --> 00:19:51,479
Speaker 1: what all of that, people don't realize there are much

414
00:19:51,560 --> 00:19:55,159
Speaker 1: more hardline elements who want him to go even further,

415
00:19:55,560 --> 00:19:58,560
Speaker 1: who want him to you know, outright declare war, which

416
00:19:58,600 --> 00:20:00,640
Speaker 1: he hasn't done with his popular the team though it's

417
00:20:00,680 --> 00:20:02,520
Speaker 1: very clear to you know, anyone who's looking at this

418
00:20:02,600 --> 00:20:06,000
Speaker 1: is a war who wants a more general sort of

419
00:20:06,040 --> 00:20:10,679
Speaker 1: like draft to have a larger scale mobilization and to

420
00:20:10,840 --> 00:20:15,320
Speaker 1: really justify like a maximalist, maximalist approach to Ukraine. There's

421
00:20:15,359 --> 00:20:17,960
Speaker 1: a lot of chest thumping this morning about we got

422
00:20:18,000 --> 00:20:21,280
Speaker 1: to hit the Ukrainian like official government buildings, and we

423
00:20:21,359 --> 00:20:24,240
Speaker 1: got to go after their intelligence services and those sorts

424
00:20:24,280 --> 00:20:27,680
Speaker 1: of things. So whoever is responsible for it, it looks

425
00:20:27,720 --> 00:20:31,400
Speaker 1: like that is the likely domestic political outcome in Russia.

426
00:20:31,560 --> 00:20:34,800
Speaker 1: Is potentially strengthening the hand of the hardliners who say

427
00:20:35,040 --> 00:20:38,720
Speaker 1: we should be going further now. The other possibility is

428
00:20:38,760 --> 00:20:40,879
Speaker 1: that it goes in the other direction and it freaks

429
00:20:40,920 --> 00:20:43,280
Speaker 1: people own about, like, oh geez, we thought that this

430
00:20:43,320 --> 00:20:46,240
Speaker 1: whole Ukraine situation could just stay in Ukraine and wasn't

431
00:20:46,240 --> 00:20:48,520
Speaker 1: really going to affect our daily lives here in Moscow,

432
00:20:48,760 --> 00:20:50,960
Speaker 1: and now we're freaked down about this and we want

433
00:20:51,000 --> 00:20:54,639
Speaker 1: to wind this whole war and military occupation back. So

434
00:20:55,160 --> 00:20:57,800
Speaker 1: that's sort of the domestic political landscape. So the FSB

435
00:20:58,440 --> 00:21:01,440
Speaker 1: says that they have solved the murder, and you'll never

436
00:21:01,600 --> 00:21:05,320
Speaker 1: guess who they say was behind it. They're blaming the Ukrainians.

437
00:21:05,480 --> 00:21:08,960
Speaker 1: They say it was a Ukrainian woman named Natalia Voth.

438
00:21:09,119 --> 00:21:11,000
Speaker 1: I don't know how you say this rented a flat

439
00:21:11,320 --> 00:21:14,639
Speaker 1: in Jugina's building, trailed her, planted the car bomb, and

440
00:21:14,760 --> 00:21:18,200
Speaker 1: escaped to Estonia. As Maxidan At his Moscow bureau chief

441
00:21:18,200 --> 00:21:21,200
Speaker 1: at the Financial Times writes a lot of odd details

442
00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:24,280
Speaker 1: in this claim by the FSB. The woman who they're

443
00:21:24,400 --> 00:21:27,280
Speaker 1: blaming for the murder apparently carried out this professionalized car

444
00:21:27,320 --> 00:21:30,000
Speaker 1: bombing with her twelve year old daughter in tow and

445
00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:33,600
Speaker 1: she allegedly followed Juguina in a mini cooper with Kazakh,

446
00:21:33,680 --> 00:21:38,000
Speaker 1: Ukrainian and Danetsk People's Republic plates and then also fled

447
00:21:38,000 --> 00:21:41,200
Speaker 1: to Estoni through Estonia. So you're like, you know, and

448
00:21:41,240 --> 00:21:44,120
Speaker 1: they putin they all hate like Estonia right now too,

449
00:21:44,200 --> 00:21:46,480
Speaker 1: so you're like, it's the Ukrainians and also screw Estonian.

450
00:21:46,480 --> 00:21:49,560
Speaker 1: It's all very convenient for their narrative. There was another

451
00:21:49,680 --> 00:21:53,600
Speaker 1: dude who was like a Kremlin critic who was expelled

452
00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:57,440
Speaker 1: from the Duma, who claimed responsibility for it and said

453
00:21:57,440 --> 00:22:01,200
Speaker 1: he was part of this like secret Republican partisan army

454
00:22:01,720 --> 00:22:04,320
Speaker 1: underground resistance to the Krumlin. There's reason to be very

455
00:22:04,320 --> 00:22:07,640
Speaker 1: skeptical of those claims as well, including the fact that

456
00:22:08,200 --> 00:22:11,520
Speaker 1: this guy has apparently made up bullshit claims in the

457
00:22:11,560 --> 00:22:13,760
Speaker 1: past and got caught for a number one. Number two,

458
00:22:14,200 --> 00:22:16,960
Speaker 1: he put up some website that was like, if you're

459
00:22:17,000 --> 00:22:20,320
Speaker 1: also interested in domestic political terror like, message me here.

460
00:22:22,040 --> 00:22:24,560
Speaker 1: I don't think, Yeah, can you imagine sitting some like

461
00:22:24,920 --> 00:22:27,000
Speaker 1: internet form of like I would like to be a

462
00:22:27,080 --> 00:22:29,440
Speaker 1: domestic political terrorists. I'm sure this isn't going to get

463
00:22:29,600 --> 00:22:32,160
Speaker 1: swept up by an intelligence that, so be skeptical does

464
00:22:32,200 --> 00:22:35,320
Speaker 1: claims very hard to say, like who ultimately is behind this?

465
00:22:35,440 --> 00:22:37,640
Speaker 1: But everybody is sort of picking their favorite villain here

466
00:22:37,640 --> 00:22:40,760
Speaker 1: and spinning the story to their own ends. But I

467
00:22:40,800 --> 00:22:42,480
Speaker 1: think the bottom line is it creates a lot of

468
00:22:42,560 --> 00:22:47,080
Speaker 1: volatility and could potentially lead to, you know, pressure for

469
00:22:47,119 --> 00:22:50,080
Speaker 1: an escalation. Yeah, so, and like who benefits from that? Right,

470
00:22:50,080 --> 00:22:52,360
Speaker 1: There's a lot of people who benefit from these things.

471
00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:54,600
Speaker 1: It's not past the Russian state in order to do so.

472
00:22:54,680 --> 00:22:56,680
Speaker 1: I mean, I probably wouldn't put it past some Ukrainian

473
00:22:56,720 --> 00:22:59,600
Speaker 1: sympathizer or some rogue operation or whatever to do. So

474
00:22:59,640 --> 00:23:02,679
Speaker 1: who knows how exactly these things go rogue also in

475
00:23:02,760 --> 00:23:06,040
Speaker 1: terms of the Russian sense, so I think undeniably it

476
00:23:06,119 --> 00:23:09,040
Speaker 1: creates a new set of conditions which both sides of

477
00:23:09,080 --> 00:23:12,000
Speaker 1: course have to react to. Zelenski is actually a warning

478
00:23:12,040 --> 00:23:16,040
Speaker 1: that a major Russian offensive could be coming in preparation

479
00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:19,440
Speaker 1: for Ukrainian Independence Day, which is sometime soon, and that

480
00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:22,200
Speaker 1: this could be a prelude to blaming them in order

481
00:23:22,240 --> 00:23:25,200
Speaker 1: to launch maybe more of a full scale type operation.

482
00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:28,960
Speaker 1: So that's certainly possible. Putin apparently has been setting in

483
00:23:29,080 --> 00:23:31,880
Speaker 1: sites on the city of Odessa, as that's a strategic

484
00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:34,400
Speaker 1: port in which a lot of the Green leaves from

485
00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:37,280
Speaker 1: perhaps capturing that would be much more of a major victory.

486
00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:39,520
Speaker 1: Perhaps this is a prelude to that. I mean, perhaps

487
00:23:39,560 --> 00:23:42,040
Speaker 1: she was just killed, you know, somebody was targeting Dougan

488
00:23:42,119 --> 00:23:45,480
Speaker 1: for some other reason. Again, though nobody knows, I will say,

489
00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:47,879
Speaker 1: car bombings are not that rare, you know, in the

490
00:23:47,920 --> 00:23:51,800
Speaker 1: form or in the in Russia. Political opponents of Putin

491
00:23:51,880 --> 00:23:54,320
Speaker 1: and many other people have died in them in the past.

492
00:23:54,359 --> 00:23:56,719
Speaker 1: But of course, you know, his opponents also know that.

493
00:23:56,800 --> 00:23:59,760
Speaker 1: So the point is is that what this does is

494
00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:03,720
Speaker 1: a major flashpoint and domestic Russian politics. It's being covered

495
00:24:03,720 --> 00:24:07,320
Speaker 1: there on state television, and you know, the hardliner assets

496
00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:09,520
Speaker 1: who were allied with Dugan are going to be pressuring

497
00:24:09,560 --> 00:24:12,800
Speaker 1: Putin regardless, even though they already were in lead up

498
00:24:12,840 --> 00:24:14,960
Speaker 1: to this, and also it's going to bolster you know,

499
00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:17,600
Speaker 1: how the Ukrainians are going to respond to whatever is

500
00:24:17,640 --> 00:24:19,760
Speaker 1: going on. So that's the reason why this, you know,

501
00:24:19,840 --> 00:24:23,800
Speaker 1: one particular murder is so important is that it unleashes

502
00:24:24,160 --> 00:24:26,000
Speaker 1: all of these new conditions with people on the ground

503
00:24:26,040 --> 00:24:27,440
Speaker 1: are going to have to react to. I was the

504
00:24:27,520 --> 00:24:29,520
Speaker 1: kind of situation. I was talking to our friend Jegor

505
00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:31,719
Speaker 1: about this and trying to understand it in the Russian

506
00:24:31,760 --> 00:24:34,199
Speaker 1: domestic political context, and he was saying, you know, this

507
00:24:34,240 --> 00:24:37,000
Speaker 1: guy kind of what he was best at is, yes,

508
00:24:37,640 --> 00:24:43,040
Speaker 1: his sort of grand philosophy here Putin takes elements from

509
00:24:43,080 --> 00:24:45,200
Speaker 1: and is you know, in line with some of his thinking,

510
00:24:45,240 --> 00:24:47,680
Speaker 1: et cetera. But that what this guy is really good

511
00:24:47,840 --> 00:24:51,080
Speaker 1: is sort of like at marketing and branding himself, especially

512
00:24:51,119 --> 00:24:54,679
Speaker 1: to Western journalists and the Western alt right. So his

513
00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:57,480
Speaker 1: influence as Putin's brain and all this has been kind

514
00:24:57,480 --> 00:25:01,000
Speaker 1: of overstated in terms of the Western media. That being said,

515
00:25:01,359 --> 00:25:05,280
Speaker 1: you know, he's someone that certainly, like the hard ultranationalists

516
00:25:05,359 --> 00:25:08,280
Speaker 1: in Russia see very much as an ally and they

517
00:25:08,320 --> 00:25:10,840
Speaker 1: see this, as you know, as a really really big deal.

518
00:25:11,160 --> 00:25:14,040
Speaker 1: He also was saying, in terms of the general Russian population.

519
00:25:14,560 --> 00:25:17,720
Speaker 1: This isn't someone who is Dugan is not actually a

520
00:25:17,760 --> 00:25:20,879
Speaker 1: household name. Yes, So to the extent that this was

521
00:25:21,040 --> 00:25:23,840
Speaker 1: sort of like, you know, if it was a targeted

522
00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:27,800
Speaker 1: killing to drive some kind of domestic political outcome, it

523
00:25:27,800 --> 00:25:32,359
Speaker 1: would be targeted more at that elite circle of ultranationalists

524
00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:35,919
Speaker 1: or you know, Krumlin insiders, because the general population is

525
00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:40,439
Speaker 1: not like super super knowledgeable about who Dugan is or

526
00:25:40,520 --> 00:25:42,639
Speaker 1: like super sort of like caught up in whatever his

527
00:25:42,680 --> 00:25:46,160
Speaker 1: philosophy is and obsessed with him in his life. Farewell said,

528
00:25:46,200 --> 00:25:48,239
Speaker 1: you know, as I said, the Putin people have kind

529
00:25:48,280 --> 00:25:49,879
Speaker 1: of shoved into a side at a certain point. They

530
00:25:49,920 --> 00:25:51,919
Speaker 1: got him fired from his job. They didn't actually like

531
00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:56,400
Speaker 1: him kind of pitching himself and writing often in English,

532
00:25:56,520 --> 00:25:58,680
Speaker 1: you know, for a very specific audience. So he's a

533
00:25:58,720 --> 00:26:00,680
Speaker 1: complicated figure, you know, in his own right. And I'm

534
00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:03,280
Speaker 1: sure this will only just bolster more of his calls

535
00:26:03,280 --> 00:26:06,920
Speaker 1: for like the total subjugation of Ukraine. But anyway, it's

536
00:26:06,920 --> 00:26:12,040
Speaker 1: going to create some conditions on the ground. Okay, let's

537
00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:16,320
Speaker 1: talk about Donald Trump. This has always been following affidavit, saga,

538
00:26:16,359 --> 00:26:18,800
Speaker 1: the warrants, the FBI. It almost feels like ancient history,

539
00:26:18,800 --> 00:26:22,119
Speaker 1: even though it just started. Funny how that was the

540
00:26:22,280 --> 00:26:24,960
Speaker 1: latest in all of these wars. Let's put this up

541
00:26:25,000 --> 00:26:27,440
Speaker 1: there on the screen, which is that, as you alluded

542
00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:30,240
Speaker 1: to earlier times, the New York Times many other news

543
00:26:30,359 --> 00:26:33,200
Speaker 1: organizations sued the FBI. The Department of Justice said, hey,

544
00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:35,800
Speaker 1: you need to release the affidavit which was used and

545
00:26:35,840 --> 00:26:38,840
Speaker 1: sworn before a judge which justified the search warrant on

546
00:26:39,119 --> 00:26:42,200
Speaker 1: mar Lago. Now, what we knew previously from the search

547
00:26:42,240 --> 00:26:45,960
Speaker 1: warrant which was released, where the specific crimes and laws

548
00:26:46,000 --> 00:26:48,560
Speaker 1: that which the FBI the Department of Justice alleged a

549
00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:51,480
Speaker 1: criminal violation of which could be furthered and found evidence

550
00:26:51,640 --> 00:26:54,280
Speaker 1: at mar Lago, which we know based on reporting, and

551
00:26:54,359 --> 00:26:56,679
Speaker 1: all these other things have to do not only with

552
00:26:56,760 --> 00:27:00,960
Speaker 1: classified documents, but the you know, misstorage or hanging on

553
00:27:01,040 --> 00:27:03,879
Speaker 1: to things too long based upon months of negotiation and

554
00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:06,840
Speaker 1: possible you know, there's all sorts of allegations to what

555
00:27:07,040 --> 00:27:09,119
Speaker 1: exactly the documents are and why Trump held onto them.

556
00:27:09,119 --> 00:27:10,440
Speaker 1: But we seem to know that he held on to

557
00:27:10,800 --> 00:27:14,040
Speaker 1: some documents in that under three separate statues of US law.

558
00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:18,159
Speaker 1: The FBI raid happened. However, what we don't know is

559
00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:22,320
Speaker 1: the actual probable cause and investigation and the past meetings

560
00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:25,080
Speaker 1: with the Trump organization, the Trump lawyers that have occurred

561
00:27:25,119 --> 00:27:29,000
Speaker 1: in the past. All of that is contained within the affidavit.

562
00:27:29,119 --> 00:27:30,760
Speaker 1: Now we know a little bit as to why the

563
00:27:30,800 --> 00:27:33,200
Speaker 1: DJ doesn't want to release it. They say it would

564
00:27:33,200 --> 00:27:36,360
Speaker 1: reveal the identity of potential cooperating witnesses. Now, I don't

565
00:27:36,359 --> 00:27:37,800
Speaker 1: know why they would say that unless they have a

566
00:27:37,880 --> 00:27:41,560
Speaker 1: cooperating witness. We don't know who said cooperating witnesses. Some

567
00:27:41,600 --> 00:27:43,639
Speaker 1: sort of mole, some sort of rat or whatever in

568
00:27:43,680 --> 00:27:46,159
Speaker 1: either the Trump org, Secret Service or whatever. Somebody in

569
00:27:46,200 --> 00:27:49,280
Speaker 1: the organization knows something. We also know that based on

570
00:27:49,320 --> 00:27:53,280
Speaker 1: subpoenas of surveillance video and others, they claimed that even

571
00:27:53,359 --> 00:27:56,680
Speaker 1: after the Trump people had said, yes, we're securing documents

572
00:27:56,720 --> 00:27:59,800
Speaker 1: in this room, because they actually have surveillance video, part

573
00:27:59,800 --> 00:28:01,439
Speaker 1: of the search warrant was to get their hands on

574
00:28:01,440 --> 00:28:04,800
Speaker 1: the video and also based on past testimony, more to

575
00:28:04,840 --> 00:28:07,440
Speaker 1: confirm that there was like a violation of law and

576
00:28:07,480 --> 00:28:11,000
Speaker 1: an agreement of things that had been said. So based

577
00:28:11,000 --> 00:28:13,560
Speaker 1: on that, there has been an extraordinary public interest in

578
00:28:13,600 --> 00:28:15,960
Speaker 1: this affidavit. What is in this affidavit? What was the

579
00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:19,760
Speaker 1: probable cause with a government's case that judge found enough

580
00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:23,120
Speaker 1: to say to grant a warrant for the FBI raid

581
00:28:23,359 --> 00:28:26,399
Speaker 1: on Marlaco. Doj initially was like, no, we're not going

582
00:28:26,440 --> 00:28:28,960
Speaker 1: to release it now. Usually they get an extraordinary amount

583
00:28:28,960 --> 00:28:31,480
Speaker 1: of defference. But what's actually cool is that the judge

584
00:28:31,600 --> 00:28:34,840
Speaker 1: finally actually in this case said that the government should

585
00:28:34,920 --> 00:28:39,560
Speaker 1: propose redactions to the affidavit to the judge based upon

586
00:28:39,720 --> 00:28:42,520
Speaker 1: and what will be a prolonged process from here on out,

587
00:28:42,720 --> 00:28:47,000
Speaker 1: because he thinks the extraordinary public interest is so important

588
00:28:47,320 --> 00:28:50,800
Speaker 1: that he is going to possibly order a public version

589
00:28:50,840 --> 00:28:54,160
Speaker 1: of this affidavit now again, it will be heavily redacted.

590
00:28:54,400 --> 00:28:56,600
Speaker 1: And having seen some of these, it is so annoying

591
00:28:56,600 --> 00:28:58,560
Speaker 1: when you're reading through them. You just have whole pages

592
00:28:58,760 --> 00:29:01,040
Speaker 1: which are black. But it can't hid everything. And my

593
00:29:01,080 --> 00:29:03,440
Speaker 1: personal favorite is sometimes they forget to redact stuff that

594
00:29:03,480 --> 00:29:05,880
Speaker 1: they were supposed to and you learn a lot more

595
00:29:06,160 --> 00:29:09,760
Speaker 1: from that. Not necessarily fair to the people who it's

596
00:29:09,760 --> 00:29:11,960
Speaker 1: supposed to be redacted to, but doesn't we're in the

597
00:29:12,000 --> 00:29:13,920
Speaker 1: news business. I'm going to take every Yeah, we're in

598
00:29:13,960 --> 00:29:16,920
Speaker 1: favor of as much disclosure as I think least. The

599
00:29:16,920 --> 00:29:19,760
Speaker 1: whole thing. Yeah, absolutely, that would that would definitely be

600
00:29:20,320 --> 00:29:22,800
Speaker 1: in the best interest of the of us in the

601
00:29:22,840 --> 00:29:26,600
Speaker 1: news media. Yeah, I mean, I'm actually I'm surprised. I

602
00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:28,920
Speaker 1: thought this judge, given the government was making the case

603
00:29:28,960 --> 00:29:31,320
Speaker 1: and that they you know, could say point to confidential

604
00:29:31,360 --> 00:29:34,080
Speaker 1: informants and an ongoing criminal investigation, all of these things.

605
00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:36,840
Speaker 1: They basically like, listen, we can't listen the information get

606
00:29:36,880 --> 00:29:39,080
Speaker 1: out to the public. So the fact that the judge

607
00:29:39,120 --> 00:29:41,360
Speaker 1: is even taking kind of a you know, a half

608
00:29:41,400 --> 00:29:45,320
Speaker 1: measure here or a middle stance saying you can propose redactions,

609
00:29:45,320 --> 00:29:46,960
Speaker 1: we'll put some of it down, and he does go

610
00:29:47,040 --> 00:29:49,000
Speaker 1: on to say, like, I don't know how interesting by

611
00:29:49,000 --> 00:29:51,160
Speaker 1: the time we get the redactions done, the public is

612
00:29:51,200 --> 00:29:54,840
Speaker 1: going to ultimately find this, but that is better than nothing.

613
00:29:54,920 --> 00:29:58,040
Speaker 1: So I think the expectation is that the redactions are

614
00:29:58,360 --> 00:30:00,640
Speaker 1: proposed redactions supposed to be submitted this so I don't

615
00:30:00,680 --> 00:30:03,640
Speaker 1: know exactly when we might get access to some portion

616
00:30:03,800 --> 00:30:06,320
Speaker 1: of this affidavit. But you're exactly right. I mean, the

617
00:30:06,320 --> 00:30:10,520
Speaker 1: search warrant contains certain information about exactly what crimes they

618
00:30:10,520 --> 00:30:13,280
Speaker 1: expect to find, you know, evidence of that, and that

619
00:30:13,400 --> 00:30:17,160
Speaker 1: justifies the search. But the affidavit gives all the detail

620
00:30:17,440 --> 00:30:20,520
Speaker 1: about what led them up to concluding that there were

621
00:30:20,560 --> 00:30:23,640
Speaker 1: crimes being committed and that you would have evidence at

622
00:30:23,640 --> 00:30:26,720
Speaker 1: this location. It also would you know, very likely give

623
00:30:26,800 --> 00:30:30,160
Speaker 1: up who it was that was informing on Trump or

624
00:30:30,400 --> 00:30:33,200
Speaker 1: multiple people potentially who was informing on Trump, And all

625
00:30:33,200 --> 00:30:35,800
Speaker 1: the reportings suggest that it's someone who is fairly close

626
00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:38,560
Speaker 1: to him, close enough to know like very specifically what

627
00:30:38,600 --> 00:30:42,080
Speaker 1: these documents were and where they could be located within

628
00:30:42,320 --> 00:30:46,240
Speaker 1: mar A Lago in typical Trumpian fashion. This is interesting,

629
00:30:46,240 --> 00:30:47,640
Speaker 1: and this is something you and I were sort of

630
00:30:47,720 --> 00:30:50,960
Speaker 1: talking about debating, like whether Trump wanted the affidavit to

631
00:30:51,000 --> 00:30:55,000
Speaker 1: be released publicly on truth Social and we can put

632
00:30:55,000 --> 00:30:58,400
Speaker 1: this up on the screen. He's calling for the release,

633
00:30:58,520 --> 00:31:02,520
Speaker 1: pushing for the unred acted affidavits release, et cetera, et cetera.

634
00:31:03,280 --> 00:31:07,560
Speaker 1: But while he's saying that publicly on truth Social, his

635
00:31:07,720 --> 00:31:12,000
Speaker 1: legal team did not push for this to be released

636
00:31:12,120 --> 00:31:15,160
Speaker 1: at all. In fact, they say that his lawyers were

637
00:31:15,160 --> 00:31:19,400
Speaker 1: conspicuously absent from the legal proceedings surrounding the unsealing process.

638
00:31:19,840 --> 00:31:22,760
Speaker 1: At any time, mister Trump and his team could have

639
00:31:22,840 --> 00:31:26,160
Speaker 1: filed papers asking Judge Reynhart to make the affidavit public,

640
00:31:26,480 --> 00:31:29,520
Speaker 1: but he chose not to, so I think he finds

641
00:31:29,560 --> 00:31:33,840
Speaker 1: it publicly beneficial to posture like he's got nothing to hide.

642
00:31:33,880 --> 00:31:35,720
Speaker 1: And of course he wants this affidavit on in the

643
00:31:35,720 --> 00:31:37,920
Speaker 1: public and it's going to expose the DOJ and the

644
00:31:38,000 --> 00:31:41,479
Speaker 1: FBI's crimes, et cetera, et cetera. But in reality, is

645
00:31:41,600 --> 00:31:44,840
Speaker 1: he in there with his team fighting for the release

646
00:31:44,840 --> 00:31:48,080
Speaker 1: of the affidavit. No, he is not, because you know,

647
00:31:48,120 --> 00:31:50,480
Speaker 1: he doesn't know exactly what's in here, and it's very

648
00:31:50,520 --> 00:31:52,840
Speaker 1: possible that there are things in here that are actively

649
00:31:52,920 --> 00:31:54,680
Speaker 1: damaging to him and a problem for him. Well that's

650
00:31:54,680 --> 00:31:57,160
Speaker 1: what you said too, which is beyond him. It's like, look,

651
00:31:57,160 --> 00:31:58,960
Speaker 1: this is the government's case. You know, the Trump people

652
00:31:58,960 --> 00:32:01,240
Speaker 1: haven't even had a chance for like maybe the government

653
00:32:01,280 --> 00:32:03,800
Speaker 1: is lying. Maybe use some informat you So it's not

654
00:32:03,920 --> 00:32:05,800
Speaker 1: actually fair, and that's part of the reason why these

655
00:32:05,800 --> 00:32:08,000
Speaker 1: things don't come out, part of the reason why I

656
00:32:08,040 --> 00:32:10,560
Speaker 1: think that in general, beyond a news interest, that it

657
00:32:10,600 --> 00:32:12,760
Speaker 1: all should come out. This is a public interest case,

658
00:32:12,920 --> 00:32:15,360
Speaker 1: deal with it. Yes, I understand that it's different and

659
00:32:15,440 --> 00:32:18,479
Speaker 1: that Trump is not above the law, But in terms

660
00:32:18,560 --> 00:32:21,920
Speaker 1: of Donald Trump and his potential to actually pressure the system,

661
00:32:21,920 --> 00:32:23,920
Speaker 1: and whoever that is all going to come from small

662
00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:26,840
Speaker 1: d democratic means, and from his perspective, you should release

663
00:32:27,040 --> 00:32:31,560
Speaker 1: anything possible. And look, I mean to Trump's case during

664
00:32:32,040 --> 00:32:35,720
Speaker 1: Ukraine Gate. Even though the quote perfect phone call was

665
00:32:35,760 --> 00:32:39,360
Speaker 1: not good for him, he released it and eventually convinced

666
00:32:39,400 --> 00:32:41,800
Speaker 1: most people it was the quote perfect phone call, even

667
00:32:41,800 --> 00:32:43,720
Speaker 1: if there was some stuff in there, which you know, sketch.

668
00:32:43,720 --> 00:32:45,280
Speaker 1: I'm not saying it was a criminal act, by the way,

669
00:32:45,320 --> 00:32:47,840
Speaker 1: but just like, okay, well you know, it's clearly pressure

670
00:32:48,280 --> 00:32:50,720
Speaker 1: in a certain way. As I've always said, the most

671
00:32:50,720 --> 00:32:53,520
Speaker 1: disgusting part to me of Zelensky's phone call with Trumps

672
00:32:53,560 --> 00:32:55,560
Speaker 1: when he's like, oh, mister President, we stay in Trump

673
00:32:55,680 --> 00:32:59,080
Speaker 1: Tower and I was like, uh so crool. This was

674
00:32:59,120 --> 00:33:01,120
Speaker 1: before he was here was the list, Yeah, before he

675
00:33:01,200 --> 00:33:03,960
Speaker 1: was Winston Churchill. He was stroking Trump and be like

676
00:33:04,080 --> 00:33:07,360
Speaker 1: I loved your hotel. You have the best hotel, Trump Tower.

677
00:33:07,360 --> 00:33:10,280
Speaker 1: That's where we are. See that I find, frankly a

678
00:33:10,280 --> 00:33:13,120
Speaker 1: lot more objection is really whatever was happening with the

679
00:33:13,120 --> 00:33:16,080
Speaker 1: military aid. But again I just think that transparency probably

680
00:33:16,120 --> 00:33:18,479
Speaker 1: only helps him, you know, prosecute this case. Everybody can

681
00:33:18,520 --> 00:33:22,320
Speaker 1: always find picking and choosing of what convenient facts or

682
00:33:22,360 --> 00:33:25,440
Speaker 1: whatever are there for why he's quote exonerated as he

683
00:33:25,600 --> 00:33:28,720
Speaker 1: always would claim so to his own public interest case.

684
00:33:28,760 --> 00:33:30,640
Speaker 1: I think it's well he could maybe at least of

685
00:33:30,680 --> 00:33:34,320
Speaker 1: the affidavit was revealed, he could maybe like actually figure

686
00:33:34,360 --> 00:33:36,760
Speaker 1: out what his defense is and lean into like pick

687
00:33:36,760 --> 00:33:40,000
Speaker 1: a narrative, you know, because they have just been throwing

688
00:33:40,080 --> 00:33:43,000
Speaker 1: everything against the wall that they possibly can was that

689
00:33:43,160 --> 00:33:47,280
Speaker 1: it was planted, it's confidential, it's you know, actually ID

690
00:33:47,360 --> 00:33:49,800
Speaker 1: classified this, so it's totally cool and I take I mean,

691
00:33:49,800 --> 00:33:52,440
Speaker 1: they've just gone cycled through everything that they could possibly

692
00:33:52,480 --> 00:33:54,479
Speaker 1: think of. So maybe if they knew a little bit

693
00:33:54,520 --> 00:33:58,640
Speaker 1: more information, they could like construct one crazy narrative and

694
00:33:58,920 --> 00:34:01,400
Speaker 1: sort of stick with it and keep pursuing that, because

695
00:34:01,440 --> 00:34:03,959
Speaker 1: that's what they seem to be most successful at. Absolutely correct.

696
00:34:04,080 --> 00:34:06,600
Speaker 1: Good morning, everybody, Happy Tuesday. We have an amazing show

697
00:34:06,640 --> 00:34:08,400
Speaker 1: for everybody today. What do we have, Krystal. Indeed, we

698
00:34:08,480 --> 00:34:11,720
Speaker 1: do a whole lot of things breaking yesterday and even

699
00:34:11,800 --> 00:34:17,680
Speaker 1: into yesterday evening. So doctor Fauci is officially announcing his retirement.

700
00:34:17,760 --> 00:34:21,399
Speaker 1: I know, as head of the NIH chapter a very

701
00:34:21,440 --> 00:34:24,240
Speaker 1: long tenure, so we won't break all of that downbry

702
00:34:24,280 --> 00:34:27,520
Speaker 1: And also will trip down memory lane from the Fauci

703
00:34:27,600 --> 00:34:31,880
Speaker 1: time during coronavirus. We also have primaries today, especially so

704
00:34:31,920 --> 00:34:33,959
Speaker 1: in the state of New York and Florida. A lot

705
00:34:34,040 --> 00:34:36,600
Speaker 1: going on, especially on the Democratic side in New York,

706
00:34:36,880 --> 00:34:41,400
Speaker 1: including a very key Bellweather congressional race. It's a special election,

707
00:34:41,880 --> 00:34:44,000
Speaker 1: one of the cannons on the Democratic side really focusing

708
00:34:44,040 --> 00:34:46,960
Speaker 1: on abortion, on the Republican side really focusing in on inflation.

709
00:34:47,080 --> 00:34:49,799
Speaker 1: It's a swing seat. So interesting to see how that

710
00:34:49,840 --> 00:34:53,000
Speaker 1: all shakes out. Big movement in the stock market yesterday.

711
00:34:53,520 --> 00:34:56,080
Speaker 1: You know, the analysts are like, this is anticipation of

712
00:34:56,120 --> 00:34:58,719
Speaker 1: the fed's meeting and Jackson Hole and concerns about what

713
00:34:58,760 --> 00:35:00,920
Speaker 1: FED shared Jerome pal is going to say, So we

714
00:35:00,960 --> 00:35:03,840
Speaker 1: will tell you about that. Also, new details about the

715
00:35:03,880 --> 00:35:07,040
Speaker 1: assassination of that Russian intellectual I guess you would call

716
00:35:07,080 --> 00:35:10,560
Speaker 1: him Dugan's daughter, and exactly what is going on there.

717
00:35:10,680 --> 00:35:13,640
Speaker 1: And we have new details about the Trump mar A

718
00:35:13,760 --> 00:35:16,880
Speaker 1: Lago raid at the David, new comments from the judge,

719
00:35:17,200 --> 00:35:19,680
Speaker 1: new reporting that is coming out, new moves from the

720
00:35:19,680 --> 00:35:23,120
Speaker 1: Trump team, all of that. But we want to start

721
00:35:23,160 --> 00:35:25,880
Speaker 1: with doctor Fauschi. That's right, pretty big news that came

722
00:35:25,920 --> 00:35:27,520
Speaker 1: out yesterday. Let's go and put this up there on

723
00:35:27,520 --> 00:35:29,920
Speaker 1: the screen. Fauci doing two exclusive interviews with The New

724
00:35:30,000 --> 00:35:32,840
Speaker 1: York Times and The Washington Post to announce officially he

725
00:35:32,960 --> 00:35:36,640
Speaker 1: will be stepping down in December to pursue, quote, his

726
00:35:36,920 --> 00:35:39,720
Speaker 1: next chapter. So this is the man who is advised,

727
00:35:39,760 --> 00:35:42,280
Speaker 1: as they say, seven presidents and spent more than fifty

728
00:35:42,360 --> 00:35:48,600
Speaker 1: years at the National Institute of Health, resigning at the NIAID,

729
00:35:48,680 --> 00:35:52,320
Speaker 1: the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. He's eighty

730
00:35:52,360 --> 00:35:54,879
Speaker 1: one years old. The reason why this is a little

731
00:35:54,880 --> 00:35:57,440
Speaker 1: bit strange is that Fauci had previously said, yeah, I

732
00:35:57,480 --> 00:35:58,960
Speaker 1: am going to leave, but he came out He's like,

733
00:35:59,000 --> 00:36:01,080
Speaker 1: no, no no, no, but I'll say till twenty twenty four.

734
00:36:01,280 --> 00:36:03,279
Speaker 1: And now he's like, no, but I am actually going

735
00:36:03,320 --> 00:36:06,520
Speaker 1: to leave this time, and it caught some people by surprise.

736
00:36:06,600 --> 00:36:09,000
Speaker 1: We don't exactly know what the impetus for that was.

737
00:36:09,040 --> 00:36:11,640
Speaker 1: Previously he had committed to rating all the way through

738
00:36:11,920 --> 00:36:15,360
Speaker 1: the end of President Biden's the end of President Biden's

739
00:36:15,400 --> 00:36:18,279
Speaker 1: at least first term. Now in it he says, as

740
00:36:18,280 --> 00:36:20,200
Speaker 1: he said, he's moving on to the next chapter as

741
00:36:20,280 --> 00:36:23,120
Speaker 1: long as he's healthy. All of that. I think the

742
00:36:23,160 --> 00:36:25,719
Speaker 1: reason why it is noteworthy is just look. I mean,

743
00:36:25,880 --> 00:36:29,200
Speaker 1: I think undoubtedly Fauci will be one of the most

744
00:36:29,320 --> 00:36:32,400
Speaker 1: significant figures of our lifetime really, whether we like it

745
00:36:32,480 --> 00:36:36,640
Speaker 1: or not, in terms of impact on policy, initial pandemic response,

746
00:36:36,960 --> 00:36:39,440
Speaker 1: and I mean, in a lot of ways responsible for

747
00:36:39,640 --> 00:36:42,040
Speaker 1: some of the major dividing lines that we had in

748
00:36:42,080 --> 00:36:44,560
Speaker 1: American society, many of the cleavages and more that have

749
00:36:44,640 --> 00:36:46,960
Speaker 1: hardened both sides into where they are. I think the

750
00:36:47,000 --> 00:36:49,359
Speaker 1: scars of COVID are going to be felt for many,

751
00:36:49,400 --> 00:36:51,719
Speaker 1: many years, as much as everybody wants to move on.

752
00:36:51,760 --> 00:36:53,120
Speaker 1: And one of the things that you know, we wanted

753
00:36:53,160 --> 00:36:55,520
Speaker 1: to do, and we did the same with CDC. Whenever

754
00:36:55,520 --> 00:36:57,359
Speaker 1: the CDC announced the like, hey, by the way, we

755
00:36:57,400 --> 00:36:59,600
Speaker 1: actually did screw up, Everyone's like, oh yeah, you think

756
00:37:00,560 --> 00:37:03,480
Speaker 1: you know? Really interesting, amazing it took you two years

757
00:37:03,520 --> 00:37:06,840
Speaker 1: in order to figure that out. With Fauci, though, unfortunately Crystal,

758
00:37:07,120 --> 00:37:10,560
Speaker 1: he's basically just being hey. Geographically treated. Will end this

759
00:37:10,680 --> 00:37:13,560
Speaker 1: segment with an MSNBC on Rachel Maddow where they're like,

760
00:37:13,600 --> 00:37:16,120
Speaker 1: why does everybody hate you? What's so wrong with you?

761
00:37:16,120 --> 00:37:19,160
Speaker 1: You didn't do anything wrong. The reaction to this, even

762
00:37:19,200 --> 00:37:21,440
Speaker 1: in the Times and elsewhere is like he's some sort

763
00:37:21,719 --> 00:37:23,960
Speaker 1: of major American hero. And so we again did the

764
00:37:23,960 --> 00:37:26,200
Speaker 1: same thing that we did with the CDC, put the

765
00:37:26,280 --> 00:37:29,840
Speaker 1: vaccine question aside, of which there of course many debates

766
00:37:30,080 --> 00:37:34,719
Speaker 1: continued to be had just the pure pandemic response from

767
00:37:34,800 --> 00:37:38,960
Speaker 1: the beginning, the lies, the manipulative manipulation of the public,

768
00:37:39,360 --> 00:37:42,359
Speaker 1: and perhaps one of the great scandals of all time,

769
00:37:42,560 --> 00:37:45,680
Speaker 1: the cover up of a very likely leak from the

770
00:37:45,680 --> 00:37:49,840
Speaker 1: Wuhan Institute of Virology, of which he was directly connected to.

771
00:37:50,120 --> 00:37:52,680
Speaker 1: Let's take a listen to all of that. The one

772
00:37:52,719 --> 00:37:55,720
Speaker 1: thing that's paramount here that we want to make sure

773
00:37:55,760 --> 00:37:57,919
Speaker 1: that people don't all of a sudden go out by

774
00:37:58,160 --> 00:38:03,560
Speaker 1: and horrid masks that are most appropriately used and necessary

775
00:38:04,200 --> 00:38:08,040
Speaker 1: for the frontline healthcare workers who do need it for

776
00:38:08,120 --> 00:38:11,440
Speaker 1: the clear and present danger that they find themselves in

777
00:38:11,840 --> 00:38:14,480
Speaker 1: when they are taking care of people who are actually

778
00:38:14,880 --> 00:38:19,920
Speaker 1: sick with coronavirus disease. We still don't know what the

779
00:38:20,080 --> 00:38:23,359
Speaker 1: argument is that if you look historically in the way

780
00:38:23,440 --> 00:38:27,680
Speaker 1: things rolled out, we all felt and still do actually

781
00:38:27,680 --> 00:38:31,320
Speaker 1: willie that it is more likely to be a natural

782
00:38:31,600 --> 00:38:36,280
Speaker 1: jumping of species from an animal reservoir to a human However,

783
00:38:36,880 --> 00:38:40,080
Speaker 1: since we don't know that for sure, that you've got

784
00:38:40,080 --> 00:38:43,880
Speaker 1: to keep an open mind. I have never lied before

785
00:38:43,920 --> 00:38:48,400
Speaker 1: the Congress, and I do not retract that statement. This

786
00:38:48,640 --> 00:38:52,960
Speaker 1: paper that you were referring to was judged by qualified

787
00:38:53,080 --> 00:38:57,439
Speaker 1: staff up and down the chain as not being gain

788
00:38:58,040 --> 00:39:02,160
Speaker 1: of function. What was me finished shaking animal virus and

789
00:39:02,200 --> 00:39:05,080
Speaker 1: you increased the transibility to humans. Right, you're saying that's

790
00:39:05,120 --> 00:39:08,359
Speaker 1: not gain the funding. That is correct. And Senator Poll,

791
00:39:08,600 --> 00:39:11,560
Speaker 1: you do not know what you are talking about, quite frankly,

792
00:39:11,680 --> 00:39:14,640
Speaker 1: and I want to say that officially you do not

793
00:39:14,880 --> 00:39:17,759
Speaker 1: know what you are talking about. But if they get

794
00:39:17,840 --> 00:39:21,080
Speaker 1: up and really aim their bullets at Tony Fauci, well

795
00:39:21,120 --> 00:39:23,560
Speaker 1: people could recognize there as a person there. So it's

796
00:39:23,640 --> 00:39:28,239
Speaker 1: easy to criticize. But they're really criticizing science because I

797
00:39:28,360 --> 00:39:33,640
Speaker 1: represent science that's dangerous to me. And of course that

798
00:39:33,719 --> 00:39:36,000
Speaker 1: last one I think will always be his legacy in

799
00:39:36,040 --> 00:39:38,400
Speaker 1: my mind, which is that he could know basically aligned

800
00:39:38,480 --> 00:39:40,520
Speaker 1: himself with the quote unquote the definition of science and

801
00:39:40,560 --> 00:39:43,480
Speaker 1: unfortunately actually politicize what science is, which is really just

802
00:39:43,760 --> 00:39:46,400
Speaker 1: a scientific method. I always point to this, and so

803
00:39:46,480 --> 00:39:48,239
Speaker 1: do you. Let's put this up there, which is that

804
00:39:48,440 --> 00:39:52,239
Speaker 1: the straight up acknowledgment by doctor Anthony Fauci at more

805
00:39:52,280 --> 00:39:54,600
Speaker 1: than a year ago. Now, at this point in which

806
00:39:54,800 --> 00:39:59,360
Speaker 1: he had basically admitted that he was fudging the numbers

807
00:39:59,440 --> 00:40:02,760
Speaker 1: as to what level of herd immunity would be needed

808
00:40:02,880 --> 00:40:05,720
Speaker 1: in order to quote go back to normal, in order

809
00:40:05,760 --> 00:40:09,719
Speaker 1: to try and manipulate public opinion, he said, well, when

810
00:40:09,840 --> 00:40:12,919
Speaker 1: Poles said only half of Americans would take a vaccine,

811
00:40:13,000 --> 00:40:15,399
Speaker 1: I was saying herd immunity would take seventy seventy five.

812
00:40:15,680 --> 00:40:17,920
Speaker 1: Then when new survey said sixty one percent would take it,

813
00:40:18,040 --> 00:40:19,680
Speaker 1: I said, oh, I can nudge this up a bit,

814
00:40:19,800 --> 00:40:21,759
Speaker 1: So I went to eighty eighty five. We need to

815
00:40:21,760 --> 00:40:23,960
Speaker 1: have some humility here. Honestly, we really don't know what

816
00:40:24,040 --> 00:40:25,840
Speaker 1: the real number is, so just say that, yeah, just

817
00:40:25,840 --> 00:40:28,520
Speaker 1: be like just I don't know, don't be like I

818
00:40:28,600 --> 00:40:30,480
Speaker 1: told the American people what I thought they could handle

819
00:40:30,480 --> 00:40:34,080
Speaker 1: a one time. I do think that last thought we

820
00:40:34,160 --> 00:40:36,680
Speaker 1: played with him talking about how you know they're really

821
00:40:36,680 --> 00:40:40,280
Speaker 1: attacking science because that's what I represent. I am science.

822
00:40:40,680 --> 00:40:44,439
Speaker 1: You know, it actually is very revealing because he did

823
00:40:44,560 --> 00:40:49,040
Speaker 1: become this total lightning rod where Republicans wanted to make

824
00:40:49,200 --> 00:40:52,239
Speaker 1: everything about him and he was evil incarnate and they're

825
00:40:52,280 --> 00:40:54,560
Speaker 1: going to launch investigations and we're going to get into that.

826
00:40:55,040 --> 00:40:57,480
Speaker 1: And Democrats wanted to worship him as a hero, and

827
00:40:57,520 --> 00:40:59,560
Speaker 1: they wanted to have their vote of candles, and all

828
00:40:59,600 --> 00:41:02,400
Speaker 1: around see you would see these signs like in praise

829
00:41:02,440 --> 00:41:05,800
Speaker 1: and worship of him, and in fact, I mean any

830
00:41:05,840 --> 00:41:09,800
Speaker 1: sort of like hero worship or demonization of one person

831
00:41:09,880 --> 00:41:13,440
Speaker 1: in particular, one very fallible human being who, as we document,

832
00:41:13,520 --> 00:41:18,120
Speaker 1: made some very significant and very consequential mistakes that is

833
00:41:18,200 --> 00:41:22,480
Speaker 1: going to ultimately poison your public health response. It is

834
00:41:22,560 --> 00:41:25,440
Speaker 1: ultimately going to make it very difficult to just assess

835
00:41:25,480 --> 00:41:29,640
Speaker 1: the evidence as it is, because people become too wrapped

836
00:41:29,719 --> 00:41:32,240
Speaker 1: up in just defending whatever it is that this person

837
00:41:32,280 --> 00:41:34,719
Speaker 1: is saying or doing, or attacking whatever it is that

838
00:41:34,760 --> 00:41:36,960
Speaker 1: this person is saying or doing. We see this in

839
00:41:36,960 --> 00:41:42,040
Speaker 1: our politics all the time. It's just another reflection of

840
00:41:42,080 --> 00:41:45,960
Speaker 1: the intense partisanship with which you know, DC elites and

841
00:41:46,040 --> 00:41:48,560
Speaker 1: some core of the Republican base and the sort of

842
00:41:48,600 --> 00:41:52,360
Speaker 1: democratic liberal base with which they view politics. Everything is

843
00:41:52,400 --> 00:41:55,239
Speaker 1: filtered through the lens of like is this person a

844
00:41:55,360 --> 00:41:58,360
Speaker 1: good person or an evil person? Then if they're on

845
00:41:58,400 --> 00:42:00,719
Speaker 1: the good side, I'm going to just take whatever they say,

846
00:42:00,719 --> 00:42:02,640
Speaker 1: no matter what it is, I'm going to justify it.

847
00:42:02,680 --> 00:42:04,480
Speaker 1: I'm going to assume it's the truth. And if they're

848
00:42:04,520 --> 00:42:07,040
Speaker 1: on the evil side, I'm going to do the polar opposite.

849
00:42:07,160 --> 00:42:10,719
Speaker 1: He during the coronavirus response really became that sort of

850
00:42:10,840 --> 00:42:12,640
Speaker 1: lightning rod figure. I mean, I will say, like in

851
00:42:12,719 --> 00:42:14,920
Speaker 1: terms of you mentioned he was at the core of

852
00:42:14,960 --> 00:42:18,399
Speaker 1: some of the politics' politicization. I always have trouble saying

853
00:42:18,400 --> 00:42:20,759
Speaker 1: that word. I mean, Donald Trump was by far the

854
00:42:20,800 --> 00:42:22,839
Speaker 1: worst defender there when he's the President of the United

855
00:42:22,880 --> 00:42:24,600
Speaker 1: States and he's supposed to be at that time bringing

856
00:42:24,640 --> 00:42:27,120
Speaker 1: people together and not you know, going off on these

857
00:42:27,120 --> 00:42:30,040
Speaker 1: crazy tangents as he did. So let's lay a lot

858
00:42:30,040 --> 00:42:34,680
Speaker 1: of blame at his feet. But the inability for liberals

859
00:42:34,680 --> 00:42:38,760
Speaker 1: to recognize some of the very crucial failures of Fauci

860
00:42:38,840 --> 00:42:41,520
Speaker 1: on mass unheard immunity, on other things that we're talking

861
00:42:41,600 --> 00:42:45,120
Speaker 1: about here, I think really hampered the response and was

862
00:42:45,280 --> 00:42:49,239
Speaker 1: a sort of it was an indication and at the

863
00:42:49,280 --> 00:42:54,040
Speaker 1: center of how our coronavirus response became so partison in

864
00:42:54,080 --> 00:42:56,719
Speaker 1: a way that did not happen in other countries like

865
00:42:56,760 --> 00:42:58,719
Speaker 1: it wasn't It didn't have to go this way, I

866
00:42:58,719 --> 00:43:00,880
Speaker 1: guess is what I'm trying to say. I mean, if

867
00:43:00,920 --> 00:43:03,040
Speaker 1: you think back to the very beginning, there were a

868
00:43:03,080 --> 00:43:05,080
Speaker 1: lot of I mean myself included. I was like, wow,

869
00:43:05,160 --> 00:43:07,759
Speaker 1: you know what often brings a great country together, which

870
00:43:07,800 --> 00:43:10,080
Speaker 1: is in the middle of strife, is a major disaster

871
00:43:10,280 --> 00:43:13,240
Speaker 1: and everybody can unite. And that lasted for like two weeks.

872
00:43:13,400 --> 00:43:16,359
Speaker 1: And then look, I mean, no denying what Trump did

873
00:43:16,400 --> 00:43:18,480
Speaker 1: in terms of what we're gonna the churches are going

874
00:43:18,560 --> 00:43:21,120
Speaker 1: to be full by Easter. That may continue to be

875
00:43:21,200 --> 00:43:23,839
Speaker 1: one of the worst things that he did, or likening

876
00:43:23,880 --> 00:43:26,440
Speaker 1: it to just the flu in the very beginning, not

877
00:43:26,520 --> 00:43:29,640
Speaker 1: taking much of the response seriously. However, and this is

878
00:43:29,680 --> 00:43:33,280
Speaker 1: the other thing that you said, by the media playing

879
00:43:33,320 --> 00:43:37,200
Speaker 1: actually into that dynamic and turning him essentially into a

880
00:43:37,239 --> 00:43:42,120
Speaker 1: god for let's say, millions of people. We never still

881
00:43:42,280 --> 00:43:45,120
Speaker 1: to this day, have an honest accounting of what happened

882
00:43:45,120 --> 00:43:47,920
Speaker 1: at the Wuhan insituit a virology. Look, at this point,

883
00:43:47,960 --> 00:43:51,040
Speaker 1: we have got reams of evidence in the Lableak direction,

884
00:43:51,320 --> 00:43:55,160
Speaker 1: and we've got some very very scant, very biased studies

885
00:43:55,320 --> 00:43:57,560
Speaker 1: that continue to come out that say, well, maybe it

886
00:43:57,600 --> 00:44:00,359
Speaker 1: does come out of the Wuhan wet market, even though

887
00:44:00,360 --> 00:44:02,880
Speaker 1: the Chinese government still does not stick to and this

888
00:44:02,960 --> 00:44:05,920
Speaker 1: is the key thing, still, they do not even stick

889
00:44:06,000 --> 00:44:07,960
Speaker 1: to the wet market theory. They're like, it just kind

890
00:44:07,960 --> 00:44:09,960
Speaker 1: of happened, by the way, let's all just move on.

891
00:44:10,080 --> 00:44:12,560
Speaker 1: Let's not talk about that anymore. We could get into

892
00:44:12,560 --> 00:44:15,319
Speaker 1: the details at nauseum, but at a very basic level,

893
00:44:15,440 --> 00:44:17,680
Speaker 1: they did implicate doctor Anthony Fauci, and that's part of

894
00:44:17,680 --> 00:44:19,680
Speaker 1: the reason why I have always looked at him as

895
00:44:19,719 --> 00:44:22,080
Speaker 1: a real villain, because what he did was he was

896
00:44:22,160 --> 00:44:24,799
Speaker 1: able to use his public position in order to cover

897
00:44:24,960 --> 00:44:27,919
Speaker 1: up again one of the great scandals. And perhaps what's

898
00:44:27,960 --> 00:44:31,280
Speaker 1: worse is that we have not done anything to rectify

899
00:44:31,600 --> 00:44:34,319
Speaker 1: that situation. All of the talk about let's ban gain

900
00:44:34,360 --> 00:44:37,880
Speaker 1: of function research, let's have an actual, you know, discussion

901
00:44:37,880 --> 00:44:40,600
Speaker 1: around when it's appropriate, when not, what are the guardrails

902
00:44:40,719 --> 00:44:43,520
Speaker 1: us guidelines, none of that happened. Instead, we ended up,

903
00:44:43,560 --> 00:44:45,799
Speaker 1: as Josh Rogan has often pointed out, we ended up

904
00:44:46,239 --> 00:44:49,640
Speaker 1: actually okaying the tune of billions of dollars of new

905
00:44:49,680 --> 00:44:51,600
Speaker 1: money in order to be spent on this. None of

906
00:44:51,600 --> 00:44:55,360
Speaker 1: the public health figures who are involved in gain of function,

907
00:44:55,440 --> 00:44:57,960
Speaker 1: who you know, pave the way for all this quote

908
00:44:57,960 --> 00:45:00,879
Speaker 1: scientific collaboration with the wuhan Lan. None of those people

909
00:45:00,960 --> 00:45:03,360
Speaker 1: have ever been held to account, Peter Dazac, many of

910
00:45:03,480 --> 00:45:06,080
Speaker 1: I mean, these are liars, absolute liars that should be

911
00:45:06,120 --> 00:45:09,680
Speaker 1: held to account. That hasn't come unfortunately, Crystal. Yeah. No,

912
00:45:09,920 --> 00:45:13,120
Speaker 1: And I mean I will say, and there's other Republicans

913
00:45:13,160 --> 00:45:15,120
Speaker 1: like jumping in the bit of this investigation, which I

914
00:45:15,360 --> 00:45:17,920
Speaker 1: totally support, and I would love to in a like

915
00:45:18,040 --> 00:45:20,880
Speaker 1: actually fact finding type of way, which I'm not totally

916
00:45:20,880 --> 00:45:22,799
Speaker 1: confident they'll be able to accomplish, but I would love

917
00:45:22,840 --> 00:45:25,080
Speaker 1: to get to the bottom of it. But I do

918
00:45:25,239 --> 00:45:27,880
Speaker 1: also have to say, like, the only thing we really

919
00:45:27,920 --> 00:45:30,400
Speaker 1: know about what Republicans will do if they take power

920
00:45:30,600 --> 00:45:33,480
Speaker 1: is which investigations they're going to obsess over, you know,

921
00:45:33,840 --> 00:45:36,840
Speaker 1: Hunter Biden and Tony Faucher Fauci. We know that's going

922
00:45:36,920 --> 00:45:39,439
Speaker 1: to be the focus of their efforts. Have they told

923
00:45:39,520 --> 00:45:41,680
Speaker 1: us a single thing about what they would actually do

924
00:45:41,880 --> 00:45:47,000
Speaker 1: about inflation or tax policy or children or educate No?

925
00:45:47,160 --> 00:45:49,560
Speaker 1: Not really. They're you know, very clear on who they

926
00:45:49,560 --> 00:45:51,719
Speaker 1: want to go after and who they want to sort

927
00:45:51,719 --> 00:45:54,680
Speaker 1: of demonize and continue to dig into. Not so clear

928
00:45:54,719 --> 00:45:57,120
Speaker 1: on their agenda for the American people be that as

929
00:45:57,120 --> 00:45:59,320
Speaker 1: it may look, one hundred percent support getting to the

930
00:45:59,320 --> 00:46:01,480
Speaker 1: bottom of what happen. Then I think Fauci was This

931
00:46:01,520 --> 00:46:03,680
Speaker 1: is one of the prime areas where he was extremely

932
00:46:03,719 --> 00:46:06,680
Speaker 1: dishonest with American people. He is implicated in some of

933
00:46:06,760 --> 00:46:10,200
Speaker 1: the very early conversations in terms of trying to completely

934
00:46:10,239 --> 00:46:13,880
Speaker 1: shut down any discussion and debate and inquiry into whether

935
00:46:13,960 --> 00:46:17,600
Speaker 1: this was a possible, plausible theory that caused the entire

936
00:46:17,680 --> 00:46:20,920
Speaker 1: response and investigation to lose a lot of critical time

937
00:46:21,320 --> 00:46:24,400
Speaker 1: and you know, may ultimately lead to the fact that

938
00:46:24,440 --> 00:46:27,840
Speaker 1: we never know definitively what exactly happened here because so

939
00:46:27,960 --> 00:46:30,520
Speaker 1: much time was ultimately lost. Yeah, I think that's right.

940
00:46:30,560 --> 00:46:33,320
Speaker 1: And look, Fauci going out with a bang, of course

941
00:46:33,440 --> 00:46:35,000
Speaker 1: on the Rachel. And this is what I love too,

942
00:46:35,000 --> 00:46:37,440
Speaker 1: which is that of all the places for his last

943
00:46:37,440 --> 00:46:39,840
Speaker 1: cable news interview, or at the very first, at least

944
00:46:39,840 --> 00:46:42,720
Speaker 1: of the day after his announcement, where does he choose

945
00:46:42,800 --> 00:46:46,520
Speaker 1: the Rachel Maddow Program with Rachel Maddow himself, in which

946
00:46:46,800 --> 00:46:49,239
Speaker 1: he says that while we're dealing with the distortion of

947
00:46:49,280 --> 00:46:52,279
Speaker 1: reality as to why anybody does not like him, let's

948
00:46:52,280 --> 00:46:55,160
Speaker 1: take a listen to that. What we're dealing with now

949
00:46:55,920 --> 00:47:01,640
Speaker 1: is just a distortion of reality, Rachel. I mean conspiracy

950
00:47:01,719 --> 00:47:05,800
Speaker 1: theories which don't make any sense at all, pushing back

951
00:47:05,880 --> 00:47:10,719
Speaker 1: on sound public health measures, you know, making it look

952
00:47:10,840 --> 00:47:15,640
Speaker 1: like trying to save lives is encroaching on people's freedom.

953
00:47:17,239 --> 00:47:19,920
Speaker 1: He'll never he'll never learn. I just think it's too perfect.

954
00:47:22,600 --> 00:47:25,319
Speaker 1: Good morning, everybody, Happy Thursday. We have an amazing show

955
00:47:25,320 --> 00:47:27,160
Speaker 1: for everybody today, or do we have Christalls? Indeed, we

956
00:47:27,200 --> 00:47:31,719
Speaker 1: do more big policy news, more big election news. So

957
00:47:31,760 --> 00:47:35,800
Speaker 1: we got the big Biden long awaited and anticipated student

958
00:47:35,840 --> 00:47:38,000
Speaker 1: loan debt relief program. We didn't give you all of

959
00:47:38,000 --> 00:47:41,080
Speaker 1: those details, and the political debates around it. Also some

960
00:47:41,320 --> 00:47:44,600
Speaker 1: very interesting results from the primary elections and the special

961
00:47:44,640 --> 00:47:47,640
Speaker 1: elections that happen on Tuesday. Dan Marins and I broke

962
00:47:47,719 --> 00:47:50,359
Speaker 1: that down yesterday. But there's even more that we're learning

963
00:47:50,360 --> 00:47:53,440
Speaker 1: today that we're going to get into as well. Casually,

964
00:47:53,520 --> 00:47:55,760
Speaker 1: while you weren't looking, and while there was no debate.

965
00:47:56,040 --> 00:47:58,719
Speaker 1: Apparently we're sending another three billion dollars to you. Yes, yeah,

966
00:47:58,960 --> 00:48:04,720
Speaker 1: so yeah, that's happening. We'll talk about it, Package number fifteen. Anyway,

967
00:48:05,080 --> 00:48:08,080
Speaker 1: get into that, Liz, Cheney's next plans. Also some polling

968
00:48:08,160 --> 00:48:10,879
Speaker 1: showing exactly which voters she would draw if she were

969
00:48:10,920 --> 00:48:14,200
Speaker 1: to run is an independent for president? No big surprises there.

970
00:48:14,560 --> 00:48:18,520
Speaker 1: And Matt Damon with some very interesting comments on the

971
00:48:18,520 --> 00:48:22,240
Speaker 1: movie industry, which has sort of like broader cultural implications.

972
00:48:22,440 --> 00:48:25,520
Speaker 1: Very interesting there. Max Alvarez is going to be here

973
00:48:25,719 --> 00:48:28,040
Speaker 1: in the flesh on the show. He's got a new

974
00:48:28,040 --> 00:48:30,520
Speaker 1: book out, so can't wait to talk to him about

975
00:48:30,520 --> 00:48:33,320
Speaker 1: that before we jump in live show. We still have

976
00:48:33,360 --> 00:48:36,120
Speaker 1: tickets live show, very few tickets, unfortunately. Let's go and

977
00:48:36,160 --> 00:48:38,480
Speaker 1: put this up well, I guess fortunately going to put

978
00:48:38,520 --> 00:48:40,600
Speaker 1: this up there on the screen, very smattering few of

979
00:48:40,640 --> 00:48:42,560
Speaker 1: tickets that are left there, So I jump on it. Guys,

980
00:48:42,560 --> 00:48:45,080
Speaker 1: if you want to comecryption, yep, that's right, Go ahead

981
00:48:45,120 --> 00:48:47,000
Speaker 1: and make the plans. It's going to be fun. Somebody

982
00:48:47,000 --> 00:48:49,719
Speaker 1: did email me asking me about accommodations. Let me just

983
00:48:49,719 --> 00:48:51,959
Speaker 1: say this, I don't know a damn thing about it.

984
00:48:52,239 --> 00:48:54,759
Speaker 1: We haven't even made our own, made our own accommodations.

985
00:48:54,760 --> 00:48:57,200
Speaker 1: Tell us where we should stay. So if you have

986
00:48:57,280 --> 00:49:00,080
Speaker 1: a recommendation for where the best place to stay in

987
00:49:00,120 --> 00:49:03,120
Speaker 1: Atlanta and food recommendations always a oh, definitely send us

988
00:49:03,200 --> 00:49:06,440
Speaker 1: send those in I would love to see them. Yeah. Indeed, Okay,

989
00:49:06,520 --> 00:49:09,560
Speaker 1: let's get to the vague announcement yesterday from the President

990
00:49:09,600 --> 00:49:11,360
Speaker 1: of the United States. Let's go ahead and throw the

991
00:49:11,400 --> 00:49:15,360
Speaker 1: Twitter announcement up on the screen. So, after much anticipation

992
00:49:15,560 --> 00:49:17,840
Speaker 1: and many false starts, took a year, he is not

993
00:49:17,960 --> 00:49:21,520
Speaker 1: all announced that he will be this administration will be

994
00:49:21,560 --> 00:49:25,399
Speaker 1: forgiving ten thousand dollars in student debt if you did

995
00:49:25,400 --> 00:49:28,880
Speaker 1: not receive pel grants and your income is under one

996
00:49:28,920 --> 00:49:31,520
Speaker 1: hundred and twenty five thousand dollars, so it's means tested

997
00:49:32,000 --> 00:49:35,239
Speaker 1: twenty thousand dollars if you went to college on pelgrants.

998
00:49:35,239 --> 00:49:37,040
Speaker 1: I think that was the part that was really quite

999
00:49:37,080 --> 00:49:40,560
Speaker 1: surprising to people that hadn't been reported or speculated before.

1000
00:49:40,600 --> 00:49:43,840
Speaker 1: And of course pelgrant recipients disproportionately sort of like working

1001
00:49:43,840 --> 00:49:47,279
Speaker 1: class and lower income. Jeff Stin has all the details here.

1002
00:49:47,320 --> 00:49:49,160
Speaker 1: He's really, you know, one of our friends over the

1003
00:49:49,200 --> 00:49:51,239
Speaker 1: Washington Post. He's really been on top of reporting this

1004
00:49:51,280 --> 00:49:53,080
Speaker 1: out very effectively. Go ahead and put this up on

1005
00:49:53,120 --> 00:49:56,719
Speaker 1: the screen, he says. To summarize, ten thousand dollars for

1006
00:49:56,840 --> 00:50:01,960
Speaker 1: most borrowers, twenty thousand dollars for Pelgrind recipients only for

1007
00:50:02,280 --> 00:50:05,120
Speaker 1: under one hundred and twenty five k individually two hundred

1008
00:50:05,120 --> 00:50:08,600
Speaker 1: and fifty k jointly aimed to cap undergrad loan payments

1009
00:50:08,640 --> 00:50:12,600
Speaker 1: at five percent monthly income. That's actually really sweeping, sweeping,

1010
00:50:12,600 --> 00:50:16,040
Speaker 1: in significant change previously that had been at ten percent.

1011
00:50:16,080 --> 00:50:18,440
Speaker 1: That was a policy that was set by the Obama

1012
00:50:18,440 --> 00:50:21,120
Speaker 1: administration to try to make student loan payments more affordable.

1013
00:50:21,400 --> 00:50:26,480
Speaker 1: Grad loans parent plus are eligible. And also significantly, that

1014
00:50:26,680 --> 00:50:30,880
Speaker 1: student loan debt payment moratorium is going to be extended

1015
00:50:31,040 --> 00:50:34,040
Speaker 1: one final time until after the mid term elections. Some

1016
00:50:34,160 --> 00:50:38,400
Speaker 1: smart politics there. Those payments will restart on December thirty. First,

1017
00:50:38,440 --> 00:50:40,840
Speaker 1: I'm a little bit shocked that they were intelligent enough

1018
00:50:40,880 --> 00:50:43,239
Speaker 1: to bake that move, but you know what, they've been

1019
00:50:43,280 --> 00:50:46,920
Speaker 1: surprising me lately with a couple of actually intelligent moves.

1020
00:50:47,160 --> 00:50:49,680
Speaker 1: Let's go ahead and listen to how the president sold

1021
00:50:49,719 --> 00:50:53,040
Speaker 1: this yesterday, And is this unfair to people who paid

1022
00:50:53,040 --> 00:50:57,239
Speaker 1: the student loans or showed nine teake otows? Is it

1023
00:50:57,400 --> 00:51:01,839
Speaker 1: fair to people who in fact do not own by

1024
00:51:01,920 --> 00:51:05,480
Speaker 1: billion dollar businesses? If she want these guys get INVOLI texts,

1025
00:51:05,600 --> 00:51:09,600
Speaker 1: is that fre What do you think? What about people

1026
00:51:09,800 --> 00:51:12,720
Speaker 1: get their laws that will provide real benefits for families

1027
00:51:12,719 --> 00:51:17,680
Speaker 1: without meaningful effect on inflation. Let's be clear, I hear

1028
00:51:17,719 --> 00:51:20,600
Speaker 1: it all the time. How do we pay for it?

1029
00:51:21,400 --> 00:51:24,279
Speaker 1: We pay for it by what we've done last year.

1030
00:51:24,320 --> 00:51:26,839
Speaker 1: We cut the depths by more than three hundred and

1031
00:51:26,920 --> 00:51:30,520
Speaker 1: fifty billion dollars. Let me give you a couple more

1032
00:51:30,560 --> 00:51:32,400
Speaker 1: of the numbers here and then we can talk a

1033
00:51:32,400 --> 00:51:36,640
Speaker 1: bit about this. So the estimates are this will entirely

1034
00:51:36,719 --> 00:51:39,480
Speaker 1: wipe out the student debt balance of about thirty three

1035
00:51:39,520 --> 00:51:42,840
Speaker 1: percent of loanholders. I have about forty three million people

1036
00:51:42,840 --> 00:51:45,320
Speaker 1: who will benefit in total, and it wipes out about

1037
00:51:45,560 --> 00:51:48,680
Speaker 1: half of the student loan debt of more than fifty

1038
00:51:48,760 --> 00:51:52,440
Speaker 1: percent of loan holders. So listen, you guys. Know my physician,

1039
00:51:52,719 --> 00:51:54,520
Speaker 1: I think it should all be canceled in college should

1040
00:51:54,520 --> 00:51:56,200
Speaker 1: be free. So it's not as far as I would go,

1041
00:51:56,600 --> 00:51:58,440
Speaker 1: but I have to say, I mean, in terms of

1042
00:51:58,680 --> 00:52:01,520
Speaker 1: the way Biden framed this and the way that he

1043
00:52:01,600 --> 00:52:04,600
Speaker 1: went about it, it was quite feisty and it was

1044
00:52:04,760 --> 00:52:09,560
Speaker 1: very not neoliberal. So there's the neoliberal flourishes here, the

1045
00:52:09,640 --> 00:52:14,239
Speaker 1: means testing and those sorts of things, but embracing outright

1046
00:52:14,280 --> 00:52:18,720
Speaker 1: debt cancelation truly is a sort of ideological philosophical break

1047
00:52:18,840 --> 00:52:23,040
Speaker 1: from the Clinton Obama style neoliberalism that's dominated for decades.

1048
00:52:23,120 --> 00:52:26,120
Speaker 1: That is absolutely so. I mean, I'm personally against his policy,

1049
00:52:26,239 --> 00:52:28,320
Speaker 1: I layout, and as I've also said, I have absolutely

1050
00:52:28,360 --> 00:52:30,560
Speaker 1: no problem with debt cancelation, even in terms of how

1051
00:52:30,600 --> 00:52:32,600
Speaker 1: we pay for it. Most of this is completely fake

1052
00:52:32,680 --> 00:52:37,080
Speaker 1: and has been absorbed by the college college industrial complex,

1053
00:52:37,120 --> 00:52:40,320
Speaker 1: of which I consider myself a major enemy of. For politically,

1054
00:52:40,440 --> 00:52:42,279
Speaker 1: you know, I'm honestly not sure. Ideologically I think it's

1055
00:52:42,280 --> 00:52:44,440
Speaker 1: a good thing. In order to make past that and

1056
00:52:44,520 --> 00:52:47,320
Speaker 1: to understand that first of all, look, Joe Biden himself

1057
00:52:47,360 --> 00:52:48,919
Speaker 1: is one of the people and one of the reason

1058
00:52:49,000 --> 00:52:51,080
Speaker 1: why that we are even in this situation. You know,

1059
00:52:51,080 --> 00:52:52,799
Speaker 1: if we'll remember, student debt is one of the only

1060
00:52:52,880 --> 00:52:55,160
Speaker 1: debts that you can't act, that you can't discharge even

1061
00:52:55,239 --> 00:52:58,439
Speaker 1: upon death, where they can garnish your family's wages thanks

1062
00:52:58,480 --> 00:53:01,279
Speaker 1: to mister Joe Biden, Senator Joe Biden from the state

1063
00:53:01,520 --> 00:53:04,120
Speaker 1: of Delaware. But politically, honestly, I've been turning this over

1064
00:53:04,120 --> 00:53:06,520
Speaker 1: in my head, Crystal. On the one hand, yes, there

1065
00:53:06,560 --> 00:53:11,400
Speaker 1: are college educated liberals disproportionately those people are going to

1066
00:53:11,400 --> 00:53:14,560
Speaker 1: be Democratic voters. The other you know, only thirty seven

1067
00:53:14,600 --> 00:53:17,160
Speaker 1: percent of the US population went to college, even amongst

1068
00:53:17,160 --> 00:53:20,360
Speaker 1: gen Z younger voters, It's like forty ish in terms

1069
00:53:20,360 --> 00:53:22,680
Speaker 1: of how many people are going to graduate. In general,

1070
00:53:22,719 --> 00:53:24,120
Speaker 1: twenty five percent of the people who enter a four

1071
00:53:24,160 --> 00:53:26,359
Speaker 1: year college where we never do graduate, So the vast

1072
00:53:26,400 --> 00:53:28,839
Speaker 1: majority of the public did not go to college. And

1073
00:53:28,920 --> 00:53:30,680
Speaker 1: you know, this could piss a lot of people off.

1074
00:53:30,719 --> 00:53:33,080
Speaker 1: Now I don't agree with the whole how are you

1075
00:53:33,120 --> 00:53:35,280
Speaker 1: going to pay for it? But there's a stark headline

1076
00:53:35,320 --> 00:53:36,600
Speaker 1: that I did see I think in the Wall Street

1077
00:53:36,680 --> 00:53:40,160
Speaker 1: Journal this is about two thousand dollars per American taxpayer

1078
00:53:40,320 --> 00:53:42,839
Speaker 1: in terms of relief. Once again, I think student debt

1079
00:53:42,920 --> 00:53:45,440
Speaker 1: and the way that it is currently structured is immoral.

1080
00:53:45,480 --> 00:53:47,359
Speaker 1: I think the colleges are criminal. I think the entire

1081
00:53:47,480 --> 00:53:50,360
Speaker 1: debt system is insane. I think it drags down wages.

1082
00:53:50,440 --> 00:53:52,839
Speaker 1: College wage premium has gone down. It prevents people from

1083
00:53:52,840 --> 00:53:54,680
Speaker 1: getting married, it prevents people from buying a house. I

1084
00:53:54,800 --> 00:53:58,040
Speaker 1: completely accept and believe in every single one of those things.

1085
00:53:58,040 --> 00:54:01,799
Speaker 1: But I do question political wisdom as it was in

1086
00:54:01,840 --> 00:54:05,960
Speaker 1: twenty twenty, given where the economy is given also just

1087
00:54:06,000 --> 00:54:07,840
Speaker 1: the fact that at the end of the day, this

1088
00:54:07,920 --> 00:54:09,840
Speaker 1: is zero sum in a way, like some people are

1089
00:54:09,880 --> 00:54:12,000
Speaker 1: getting a break and some people are not getting a break,

1090
00:54:12,080 --> 00:54:14,399
Speaker 1: especially when we have twenty per what twenty year high

1091
00:54:14,800 --> 00:54:17,000
Speaker 1: of credit card debt. So you know, if you're younger

1092
00:54:17,000 --> 00:54:18,200
Speaker 1: and you have a lot of credit card debt and

1093
00:54:18,239 --> 00:54:20,480
Speaker 1: you didn't go to college, I don't know. I mean,

1094
00:54:20,480 --> 00:54:21,799
Speaker 1: if I had a time, to be clear, I WASO

1095
00:54:21,880 --> 00:54:23,040
Speaker 1: you put this on the table. I didn't have any

1096
00:54:23,040 --> 00:54:25,240
Speaker 1: student that God bless my parents have paid for my college.

1097
00:54:25,280 --> 00:54:26,560
Speaker 1: So you know, you should always take that with a

1098
00:54:26,600 --> 00:54:28,520
Speaker 1: grain of salt. Whatever I say, I didn't suffer the

1099
00:54:28,520 --> 00:54:31,920
Speaker 1: same emotional burden. I'm looking at it dispassionately, and I

1100
00:54:31,920 --> 00:54:33,880
Speaker 1: could see it going both ways. I generally don't. I

1101
00:54:33,920 --> 00:54:37,600
Speaker 1: genuinely don't know. So I think one indication of how

1102
00:54:37,640 --> 00:54:39,719
Speaker 1: it is likely to go politically is the fact that

1103
00:54:39,760 --> 00:54:42,000
Speaker 1: over on Fox News they're freaking out about Joe Biden

1104
00:54:42,040 --> 00:54:45,200
Speaker 1: buying votes. I mean, the arguments. So let me take

1105
00:54:45,239 --> 00:54:48,600
Speaker 1: on the case sort of just like on a policy

1106
00:54:48,680 --> 00:54:51,120
Speaker 1: level for this, which I've laid out here before in

1107
00:54:51,160 --> 00:54:53,160
Speaker 1: the past, about the sort of moral case for this.

1108
00:54:53,239 --> 00:54:57,200
Speaker 1: I mean, effectively, you had politicians from both parties that

1109
00:54:57,320 --> 00:55:00,840
Speaker 1: destroy the working class, send jobs overseas, bust unions, and

1110
00:55:00,880 --> 00:55:03,160
Speaker 1: make it very very difficult to achieve any sort of

1111
00:55:03,200 --> 00:55:06,960
Speaker 1: middle class stability. Then what do they offer as a

1112
00:55:07,000 --> 00:55:10,120
Speaker 1: response to that? They say, go to college, this very

1113
00:55:10,120 --> 00:55:13,520
Speaker 1: individualistic bootstrap. If you want to get ahead, this is

1114
00:55:13,560 --> 00:55:16,000
Speaker 1: the path, and we're going to you know, make these

1115
00:55:16,120 --> 00:55:19,200
Speaker 1: help support this loan industry so that you can go

1116
00:55:19,239 --> 00:55:22,080
Speaker 1: and you can get a college education. And so pushing

1117
00:55:22,160 --> 00:55:25,040
Speaker 1: people in that direction has led to an entire generation,

1118
00:55:25,200 --> 00:55:29,760
Speaker 1: mostly Millennials and now Gen Z, that were overwhelmingly loaded

1119
00:55:29,920 --> 00:55:33,560
Speaker 1: up with debt. It has you see the implications of

1120
00:55:33,600 --> 00:55:35,760
Speaker 1: this in terms of the stats we always look about.

1121
00:55:35,920 --> 00:55:40,560
Speaker 1: Look at the very small percentage of wealth that millennials holds,

1122
00:55:40,560 --> 00:55:43,680
Speaker 1: like six three percent of total wealth that millennials have

1123
00:55:43,760 --> 00:55:47,520
Speaker 1: versus boomers have sixty percent, The late dates of being

1124
00:55:47,560 --> 00:55:50,600
Speaker 1: able to get married, the inability to buy a home,

1125
00:55:51,160 --> 00:55:54,400
Speaker 1: A lot of that stems from this massive debt load

1126
00:55:54,600 --> 00:55:58,640
Speaker 1: that our leadership class told people to take on, that

1127
00:55:58,640 --> 00:56:01,920
Speaker 1: that was the right thing. And oftentimes you're making these decisions.

1128
00:56:01,960 --> 00:56:05,319
Speaker 1: I mean I literally was applying to colleges when I

1129
00:56:05,360 --> 00:56:07,319
Speaker 1: was sixteen years old and taking on this debt when

1130
00:56:07,360 --> 00:56:09,239
Speaker 1: I was seventeen years old. You have no real frame

1131
00:56:09,280 --> 00:56:11,840
Speaker 1: of mind, right, so these people are like, you're an

1132
00:56:11,920 --> 00:56:14,120
Speaker 1: adult when you do this, etc. I mean, these are

1133
00:56:14,200 --> 00:56:16,360
Speaker 1: young people and they have been told by everybody that

1134
00:56:16,480 --> 00:56:19,439
Speaker 1: this was the path to take. So that's number one.

1135
00:56:19,560 --> 00:56:22,120
Speaker 1: I think morally the case is very sound and very just,

1136
00:56:22,200 --> 00:56:24,080
Speaker 1: and I don't think it's like a populis position to

1137
00:56:24,120 --> 00:56:26,880
Speaker 1: be like, young people deserve to be loaded up with

1138
00:56:26,880 --> 00:56:28,480
Speaker 1: mountains of debt for their entire life, and I know

1139
00:56:28,520 --> 00:56:32,440
Speaker 1: that's not your position whatsoever. I also don't buy this idea,

1140
00:56:32,640 --> 00:56:36,760
Speaker 1: even though I fully acknowledge that this is a very

1141
00:56:36,920 --> 00:56:40,600
Speaker 1: incomplete approach in you know, personally, again, I think that

1142
00:56:41,120 --> 00:56:45,040
Speaker 1: public university and community college and trade schools should be free.

1143
00:56:45,160 --> 00:56:47,120
Speaker 1: I think you should cancel all the debt and make

1144
00:56:47,440 --> 00:56:50,520
Speaker 1: college available universally to everyone. That way, it is a

1145
00:56:50,600 --> 00:56:53,480
Speaker 1: universalist policy that benefits everyone. But we have to act

1146
00:56:53,520 --> 00:56:56,040
Speaker 1: in the realm of the possible right now, and this

1147
00:56:56,239 --> 00:56:59,320
Speaker 1: is what Joe Biden can do with his executive power

1148
00:56:59,640 --> 00:57:02,879
Speaker 1: without having Congress to make those broader reforms. I also

1149
00:57:02,920 --> 00:57:04,520
Speaker 1: think there's a lot of bad faith in the people

1150
00:57:04,520 --> 00:57:08,200
Speaker 1: who are like trying to make this class based argument,

1151
00:57:08,239 --> 00:57:10,000
Speaker 1: which I understand of like, Okay, this is going to

1152
00:57:10,000 --> 00:57:11,799
Speaker 1: benefit people who went to college and it's not going

1153
00:57:11,840 --> 00:57:15,239
Speaker 1: to benefit this other group. But those are same people

1154
00:57:15,320 --> 00:57:19,000
Speaker 1: are also not offering like a policy that would benefit everyone.

1155
00:57:19,360 --> 00:57:21,560
Speaker 1: They just want to do nothing right, and they're used

1156
00:57:21,560 --> 00:57:25,160
Speaker 1: trying to weaponize this class division in order to be

1157
00:57:25,320 --> 00:57:28,400
Speaker 1: against this thing that would be good for Again, forty

1158
00:57:28,400 --> 00:57:31,920
Speaker 1: three million people would benefit, and ninety percent of those

1159
00:57:31,920 --> 00:57:34,880
Speaker 1: beneficiaries make under seventy five thousand dollars a year. The

1160
00:57:34,960 --> 00:57:37,120
Speaker 1: last thing that I'll say here is sort of like

1161
00:57:37,320 --> 00:57:39,920
Speaker 1: a conservative argument for it. First of all, there are

1162
00:57:40,000 --> 00:57:43,360
Speaker 1: potential direct economic benefits that would accrue to the nation

1163
00:57:43,440 --> 00:57:46,919
Speaker 1: as a whole. Annual home sales one estimate was would

1164
00:57:47,000 --> 00:57:49,760
Speaker 1: rise by a three hundred thousand dollars GDP could be

1165
00:57:49,800 --> 00:57:52,600
Speaker 1: lifted by around one hundred billion dollars, so it could

1166
00:57:52,640 --> 00:57:55,600
Speaker 1: be significant in terms of the overall economy. And then

1167
00:57:55,600 --> 00:57:57,560
Speaker 1: I thought this was really interesting, makes a lot of sense.

1168
00:57:57,800 --> 00:58:02,120
Speaker 1: There's a negative correlation between student debt and small business formation.

1169
00:58:02,280 --> 00:58:05,240
Speaker 1: So if you're also someone who believes in small business formation,

1170
00:58:05,360 --> 00:58:09,720
Speaker 1: believes in entrepreneurship, that debt that is laid on students

1171
00:58:09,960 --> 00:58:13,400
Speaker 1: right from the jump really really harms their ability to

1172
00:58:13,440 --> 00:58:15,640
Speaker 1: go out and create and start their own thing. And

1173
00:58:15,960 --> 00:58:17,680
Speaker 1: a lot of the people who are you know, who

1174
00:58:17,680 --> 00:58:20,520
Speaker 1: are sort of the most sympathetic cases here in pelgrant recipients,

1175
00:58:20,560 --> 00:58:23,840
Speaker 1: et cetera, a lot of people started college, got loaded

1176
00:58:23,920 --> 00:58:26,360
Speaker 1: up with the debt, didn't finish, or got the four

1177
00:58:26,440 --> 00:58:28,560
Speaker 1: year career and still had to go out and work

1178
00:58:28,600 --> 00:58:31,440
Speaker 1: at Starbucks or work in the Amazon warehouse. So I

1179
00:58:31,480 --> 00:58:34,080
Speaker 1: think there's a little bit of a caricaturist view of

1180
00:58:34,160 --> 00:58:39,200
Speaker 1: who student loan debt holders are. Yes, it's not everybody,

1181
00:58:39,360 --> 00:58:42,080
Speaker 1: and yes, the majority of Americans still do not complete

1182
00:58:42,160 --> 00:58:45,600
Speaker 1: for your college, but you have a large percentage of

1183
00:58:45,880 --> 00:58:49,840
Speaker 1: working in middle class people who will benefit from this policy.

1184
00:58:50,320 --> 00:58:52,720
Speaker 1: And you know, I don't think we should let the

1185
00:58:52,720 --> 00:58:55,200
Speaker 1: perfect be the enemy of the good. This is on

1186
00:58:55,280 --> 00:58:57,360
Speaker 1: the table, this is possible to achieve, and so that's

1187
00:58:57,400 --> 00:59:00,280
Speaker 1: why I ultimately, yeah, right, I completely get that. My

1188
00:59:00,360 --> 00:59:01,960
Speaker 1: problem with this is that I think this has probably

1189
00:59:02,040 --> 00:59:04,760
Speaker 1: killed it for a generation, and that from this point forward,

1190
00:59:04,800 --> 00:59:06,200
Speaker 1: I mean, I have a lot of this breakdown in

1191
00:59:06,240 --> 00:59:08,720
Speaker 1: my monologue, But you cancel ten K debt outstanding debt

1192
00:59:08,760 --> 00:59:11,120
Speaker 1: will return back to today's levels in four years. So

1193
00:59:11,200 --> 00:59:14,000
Speaker 1: every single person who is so at one point eight trillion,

1194
00:59:14,320 --> 00:59:16,360
Speaker 1: this is going to knock us down to a ply

1195
00:59:16,440 --> 00:59:19,520
Speaker 1: one one point twenty five trillion. We'll be back at

1196
00:59:19,560 --> 00:59:22,280
Speaker 1: one point eight trillion four years, which effectively means every

1197
00:59:22,320 --> 00:59:24,400
Speaker 1: single person who's currently in college right now, in a

1198
00:59:24,400 --> 00:59:26,760
Speaker 1: four year degree institution, those people who are not going

1199
00:59:26,800 --> 00:59:31,160
Speaker 1: to be beneficiaries as policy. After the last freshman today graduates,

1200
00:59:31,200 --> 00:59:32,760
Speaker 1: we're going to be right back where we started. So

1201
00:59:32,800 --> 00:59:35,640
Speaker 1: it's like, oh, then, what arguth for doing more? I mean, yeah,

1202
00:59:35,680 --> 00:59:37,440
Speaker 1: but it's not going to happen. And then that's the issue,

1203
00:59:37,440 --> 00:59:40,000
Speaker 1: which is that I just genuinely believe this has killed it,

1204
00:59:40,080 --> 00:59:42,040
Speaker 1: politicized it, and made it so that we are not

1205
00:59:42,120 --> 00:59:44,880
Speaker 1: going to reform the college degree. And look, I mean

1206
00:59:44,880 --> 00:59:46,080
Speaker 1: I think this is where we have to be honest.

1207
00:59:46,400 --> 00:59:49,680
Speaker 1: College administrators and college people in general are the base

1208
00:59:49,840 --> 00:59:53,000
Speaker 1: of the Democratic Party, like to its most core, the

1209
00:59:53,040 --> 00:59:58,440
Speaker 1: most reply guy people that exist online, especially graduate institutions,

1210
00:59:58,480 --> 01:00:01,840
Speaker 1: and to destroy this behemoth, you have to effectively bankrupt

1211
01:00:02,000 --> 01:00:05,680
Speaker 1: a large percentage of the most reliable Democratic voters. Like

1212
01:00:05,720 --> 01:00:07,720
Speaker 1: I just don't think that's politically going to happen. But

1213
01:00:07,760 --> 01:00:10,240
Speaker 1: again on the left case, Okay, it's not possible. If

1214
01:00:10,240 --> 01:00:13,160
Speaker 1: it's not politically going to happen. Anyway, you may as

1215
01:00:13,200 --> 01:00:15,680
Speaker 1: well provide a little bit of relief to forty three

1216
01:00:15,720 --> 01:00:19,640
Speaker 1: million people in the meantime. And you know, listen, I'm

1217
01:00:19,640 --> 01:00:21,840
Speaker 1: not a big believer in the Democratic Party, although I

1218
01:00:21,880 --> 01:00:23,480
Speaker 1: have to say that they have surprised me a few

1219
01:00:23,520 --> 01:00:25,640
Speaker 1: times now. They've surprised me now with the Chips Act,

1220
01:00:25,640 --> 01:00:29,160
Speaker 1: with the Inflation Reduction Act, and actually maybe their most

1221
01:00:29,280 --> 01:00:32,640
Speaker 1: surprising gangster move was inserting into that Inflation Reduction Act

1222
01:00:32,680 --> 01:00:36,880
Speaker 1: while no one was looking, this like's rebuke to the court. Yeah,

1223
01:00:36,920 --> 01:00:39,040
Speaker 1: it's very interesting. So you know, the Supreme Court struck

1224
01:00:39,040 --> 01:00:41,400
Speaker 1: down the EP's ability to regulate carbon and they were like,

1225
01:00:41,600 --> 01:00:44,680
Speaker 1: you have to legislate this, and Democrats snuck that provision

1226
01:00:44,680 --> 01:00:47,480
Speaker 1: into the Inflation Reduction Act while Republicans weren't paying attention.

1227
01:00:47,560 --> 01:00:49,280
Speaker 1: So they have surprised me a couple times here. But

1228
01:00:49,800 --> 01:00:53,000
Speaker 1: you know, at this point in the electoral landscape, and

1229
01:00:53,040 --> 01:00:55,160
Speaker 1: I'm actually talking about this a little bit in my monologue,

1230
01:00:55,560 --> 01:00:59,840
Speaker 1: it's not crazy to imagine the Democrats hold the House

1231
01:01:00,320 --> 01:01:02,800
Speaker 1: and pick up a couple seats in the Senate, in

1232
01:01:02,840 --> 01:01:05,560
Speaker 1: which case, if you pick up if you win the

1233
01:01:05,640 --> 01:01:09,800
Speaker 1: Pennsylvania seat versus us, and you win the Wisconsincin versus

1234
01:01:09,880 --> 01:01:12,240
Speaker 1: Ron Johnson, which probably the more difficult of the two,

1235
01:01:12,360 --> 01:01:14,040
Speaker 1: definitely the more difficult of the two, and you hold

1236
01:01:14,040 --> 01:01:16,240
Speaker 1: everything else, and right now the polls have them in

1237
01:01:16,280 --> 01:01:19,120
Speaker 1: that position, then you don't have to worry about mansion

1238
01:01:19,160 --> 01:01:22,800
Speaker 1: and cinema. And then you know, Biden has said before

1239
01:01:23,040 --> 01:01:26,080
Speaker 1: free community college was something that was really important to him,

1240
01:01:26,080 --> 01:01:29,400
Speaker 1: that he actually cared about. Well, then that actually is

1241
01:01:29,440 --> 01:01:32,120
Speaker 1: back on the table. I also want to say that,

1242
01:01:32,320 --> 01:01:33,920
Speaker 1: you know, one of the other things that they do

1243
01:01:34,000 --> 01:01:38,080
Speaker 1: here that goes beyond the headline, Okay, ten K or

1244
01:01:38,120 --> 01:01:41,480
Speaker 1: twenty k if you're a pelgrant recipient debt relief, is

1245
01:01:41,480 --> 01:01:44,800
Speaker 1: the fact that they made it more affordable for everyone

1246
01:01:44,840 --> 01:01:48,440
Speaker 1: blanket across the board by limiting student debt payments to

1247
01:01:48,600 --> 01:01:52,680
Speaker 1: five percent of income. That is a more sweeping change.

1248
01:01:52,760 --> 01:01:55,360
Speaker 1: They also have in hear some things about trying like

1249
01:01:55,440 --> 01:01:57,960
Speaker 1: more transparency around costs and whatever. I think all of

1250
01:01:57,960 --> 01:02:00,960
Speaker 1: that is ultimately kind of I'll just don't care meaningless. Yeah,

1251
01:02:01,000 --> 01:02:02,640
Speaker 1: I mean, it's sort of like in the Trump administration,

1252
01:02:02,720 --> 01:02:05,160
Speaker 1: they did this hospital thing, hospital breaking transmit. It did

1253
01:02:05,240 --> 01:02:06,960
Speaker 1: absolutely nothing, So I don't have a lot of confidence

1254
01:02:07,000 --> 01:02:09,840
Speaker 1: in that. But it is a broader reform, this five

1255
01:02:09,920 --> 01:02:15,000
Speaker 1: percent income limit for people and also making and this

1256
01:02:15,040 --> 01:02:17,040
Speaker 1: actually could make a difference. There's a program in a

1257
01:02:17,040 --> 01:02:19,320
Speaker 1: place right now where if you're a public servant, you

1258
01:02:19,320 --> 01:02:21,880
Speaker 1: can have your debt discharged. I think it's ten years

1259
01:02:21,960 --> 01:02:26,640
Speaker 1: and it's it's the program theoretically exists, but is so

1260
01:02:26,880 --> 01:02:29,720
Speaker 1: mismanaged and disastrous that almost no one can make use

1261
01:02:29,760 --> 01:02:32,800
Speaker 1: of it. So actually making that useful would would be

1262
01:02:32,840 --> 01:02:35,000
Speaker 1: a big difference. Let's go ahead and put up the

1263
01:02:35,640 --> 01:02:37,680
Speaker 1: cost estimates just so we can give you some of

1264
01:02:37,720 --> 01:02:40,200
Speaker 1: the more some of the details in terms of the

1265
01:02:40,280 --> 01:02:43,160
Speaker 1: numbers here. So one of the estimates found that this

1266
01:02:43,160 --> 01:02:47,960
Speaker 1: could cost three hundred billion dollars. They are this is

1267
01:02:48,040 --> 01:02:51,120
Speaker 1: actually before they added in the twenty thousand dollars of forgiveness,

1268
01:02:51,120 --> 01:02:54,080
Speaker 1: so they're updating this to see one thing that So,

1269
01:02:54,160 --> 01:02:55,800
Speaker 1: on the one hand, it could be more than this.

1270
01:02:55,920 --> 01:02:57,560
Speaker 1: On the other hand, it's also important to keep in

1271
01:02:57,640 --> 01:03:00,720
Speaker 1: mind that a lot of this debt was never going

1272
01:03:00,800 --> 01:03:04,520
Speaker 1: to get paid off. Yes, a lot of you know barrowers.

1273
01:03:04,600 --> 01:03:07,040
Speaker 1: I think it's like one out of five bars was

1274
01:03:07,080 --> 01:03:10,080
Speaker 1: already in default. You have ninety percent of bars right

1275
01:03:10,120 --> 01:03:13,320
Speaker 1: now who they are not prepared for student debt payments

1276
01:03:13,320 --> 01:03:17,360
Speaker 1: to restart. So you know, the reality of the situation is,

1277
01:03:17,480 --> 01:03:20,320
Speaker 1: especially with that Obama era program that limits the amount

1278
01:03:20,320 --> 01:03:22,600
Speaker 1: that you have to pay in a bulk of this

1279
01:03:22,680 --> 01:03:27,320
Speaker 1: debt was probably never going to be paid. Ultimately, this

1280
01:03:27,360 --> 01:03:29,520
Speaker 1: is all fake, and that's that's why I also get

1281
01:03:29,560 --> 01:03:32,160
Speaker 1: frustrated by the goos pay Listen, this is all bs.

1282
01:03:32,240 --> 01:03:34,160
Speaker 1: It's a lot like Social Security. For my agent, Patial

1283
01:03:34,280 --> 01:03:37,080
Speaker 1: social Security, good luck trying to collect when you're sixty five.

1284
01:03:37,120 --> 01:03:38,680
Speaker 1: I think we all know this is not going to happen,

1285
01:03:38,880 --> 01:03:40,760
Speaker 1: probably going to take a haircut of like two thirds.

1286
01:03:40,920 --> 01:03:43,360
Speaker 1: This is also probably the exact same thing. So in

1287
01:03:43,440 --> 01:03:46,520
Speaker 1: terms of the collective future and the actual numbers, I

1288
01:03:46,520 --> 01:03:48,400
Speaker 1: don't decide. I see people trying to make it like

1289
01:03:48,440 --> 01:03:51,040
Speaker 1: you're going to like directly pay for it right now,

1290
01:03:51,120 --> 01:03:52,880
Speaker 1: That's not how the government works. I'm always going to

1291
01:03:52,960 --> 01:03:55,160
Speaker 1: argue that type of video. Yeah, politically though, not a

1292
01:03:55,240 --> 01:03:57,680
Speaker 1: terrible point for the Republicans to hammer home. So I

1293
01:03:57,720 --> 01:03:59,760
Speaker 1: really just think that it comes down to and this

1294
01:03:59,800 --> 01:04:01,080
Speaker 1: is all also, by the way, my problem with free

1295
01:04:01,080 --> 01:04:02,840
Speaker 1: community college. I don't think most of these people deserve

1296
01:04:02,920 --> 01:04:04,600
Speaker 1: jobs at these colleges. I think it's all fake. I

1297
01:04:04,600 --> 01:04:07,120
Speaker 1: think they're full of it. I mean, I've been reading

1298
01:04:07,200 --> 01:04:09,880
Speaker 1: a very interesting leame My monologue about the number of diversity,

1299
01:04:09,920 --> 01:04:13,280
Speaker 1: equity and inclusion staffers. They're getting paid full salaries, all

1300
01:04:13,320 --> 01:04:16,000
Speaker 1: based on tuition bloat, which is funded by a lot

1301
01:04:16,040 --> 01:04:17,800
Speaker 1: of these student loans. I mean, I think the fact

1302
01:04:17,920 --> 01:04:19,960
Speaker 1: is is that you have to burn the system basically

1303
01:04:20,040 --> 01:04:23,200
Speaker 1: to the ground all the way to nineteen ninety two

1304
01:04:23,320 --> 01:04:27,120
Speaker 1: era of when like this was actually affordable accessible. That's

1305
01:04:27,120 --> 01:04:29,640
Speaker 1: when around twenty something percent of the US population was

1306
01:04:29,680 --> 01:04:32,680
Speaker 1: going to college. I think that's frankly probably about right. Well.

1307
01:04:32,680 --> 01:04:36,840
Speaker 1: What happened, in part is that these colleges became like businesses.

1308
01:04:37,320 --> 01:04:39,560
Speaker 1: Look at the LSU. They have a lazy river going

1309
01:04:39,560 --> 01:04:43,120
Speaker 1: through their campus. I'm sorry, that's insane. That the taxpayers

1310
01:04:43,320 --> 01:04:46,160
Speaker 1: are paying things well, and that is the thing is,

1311
01:04:46,200 --> 01:04:51,000
Speaker 1: like they became like businesses. There was an effort starting

1312
01:04:51,160 --> 01:04:53,880
Speaker 1: in California with Reagan actually to really strip a lot

1313
01:04:53,880 --> 01:04:56,919
Speaker 1: of the state funding. So then they had to go

1314
01:04:57,040 --> 01:05:01,080
Speaker 1: out into the market and like attract in market towards students,

1315
01:05:01,320 --> 01:05:03,760
Speaker 1: and I guess which students they want to attract. They

1316
01:05:03,760 --> 01:05:06,720
Speaker 1: want to attract wealthy students who can donate and who

1317
01:05:06,720 --> 01:05:09,919
Speaker 1: can you know, like fill up their coffers. And so

1318
01:05:10,000 --> 01:05:13,280
Speaker 1: they created all of these and there's administrative blow, but

1319
01:05:13,320 --> 01:05:17,160
Speaker 1: it's also all these like luxury amenities, the lazy ribs,

1320
01:05:17,320 --> 01:05:20,960
Speaker 1: the challenge service steps. So I mean it's you know,

1321
01:05:21,120 --> 01:05:24,720
Speaker 1: it comes ultimately part of that is that the state

1322
01:05:24,760 --> 01:05:28,080
Speaker 1: took a step back from having a direct interest and

1323
01:05:28,160 --> 01:05:31,320
Speaker 1: so there was no incentive to keep costs under control.

1324
01:05:31,640 --> 01:05:35,280
Speaker 1: When California universities, which were, you know and still are

1325
01:05:35,320 --> 01:05:38,480
Speaker 1: some of the best in the nation, when their funding

1326
01:05:38,560 --> 01:05:42,320
Speaker 1: was significantly stripped, then that totally changed the economic model

1327
01:05:42,400 --> 01:05:45,720
Speaker 1: and landscape. So I completely agree that's a problem. I

1328
01:05:45,840 --> 01:05:48,120
Speaker 1: just don't think that the fact that you're not solving

1329
01:05:48,200 --> 01:05:52,000
Speaker 1: every problem right now isn't a reason to do what

1330
01:05:52,160 --> 01:05:54,480
Speaker 1: we can do at this point in time and give

1331
01:05:54,520 --> 01:05:57,480
Speaker 1: people a little bit of relief. I let's go ahead

1332
01:05:57,520 --> 01:06:00,200
Speaker 1: and go to this next piece about the how they

1333
01:06:00,240 --> 01:06:05,240
Speaker 1: are justifying this in terms of the legal backing. It's

1334
01:06:05,240 --> 01:06:08,080
Speaker 1: interesting because Sagre and maybe you looked into this more.

1335
01:06:08,160 --> 01:06:10,600
Speaker 1: It seems like there are two potential justifications for this.

1336
01:06:10,680 --> 01:06:13,280
Speaker 1: So the mema they put out cites a Post nine

1337
01:06:13,320 --> 01:06:15,880
Speaker 1: to eleven law that allows for debt cancelation and connection

1338
01:06:15,960 --> 01:06:19,160
Speaker 1: with a war or other military operation or national emergency.

1339
01:06:19,440 --> 01:06:23,040
Speaker 1: They're saying the COVID pandemic is that emergency that justifies

1340
01:06:23,080 --> 01:06:25,880
Speaker 1: the use of this. It's called the Heroes Act of

1341
01:06:25,880 --> 01:06:29,320
Speaker 1: two thousand and three. It fairly directly it says it

1342
01:06:29,360 --> 01:06:33,000
Speaker 1: authorizes as the Secretary to quote, wave or modify any

1343
01:06:33,040 --> 01:06:36,600
Speaker 1: statutory or regulatory provision applicable to these student financial assistance

1344
01:06:36,640 --> 01:06:40,880
Speaker 1: programs if the Secretary deemed such waivers or modifications necessary

1345
01:06:40,920 --> 01:06:44,280
Speaker 1: to ensure at least one of several numerated purposes, including

1346
01:06:44,680 --> 01:06:47,320
Speaker 1: that bars are not placed in a worse position financially

1347
01:06:47,360 --> 01:06:51,600
Speaker 1: because of a national emergency. There's also presidents including by

1348
01:06:51,600 --> 01:06:54,480
Speaker 1: An including Trump, including Obama for a long time have

1349
01:06:54,640 --> 01:07:00,560
Speaker 1: used this Education Act legal justification to give selective student

1350
01:07:00,600 --> 01:07:03,160
Speaker 1: loan debt relief, like the public Servant program that I

1351
01:07:03,200 --> 01:07:06,960
Speaker 1: was talking about before. You know, service members. I think

1352
01:07:06,960 --> 01:07:09,520
Speaker 1: there was a provision from Biden this year of memory

1353
01:07:09,560 --> 01:07:14,400
Speaker 1: serves correctly specifically target disabled service members. So It's been

1354
01:07:14,520 --> 01:07:18,160
Speaker 1: used in the past to grant a debt relief, just

1355
01:07:18,280 --> 01:07:20,920
Speaker 1: not in quite as wide scale of a faction. It's

1356
01:07:20,920 --> 01:07:23,439
Speaker 1: really weird that they chose to go with the Heroes Act,

1357
01:07:23,480 --> 01:07:26,680
Speaker 1: because there's actually a provision under Obamacare which is probably

1358
01:07:26,760 --> 01:07:30,680
Speaker 1: more legally justifiable and sound. So Obamacare had a federal

1359
01:07:30,680 --> 01:07:33,720
Speaker 1: student loan takeover as part of its actual pay for

1360
01:07:34,200 --> 01:07:35,560
Speaker 1: in terms of how they were going to make it

1361
01:07:35,600 --> 01:07:39,200
Speaker 1: go forward, and there are provisions within Obamacare that actually

1362
01:07:39,200 --> 01:07:41,960
Speaker 1: allow the President to go and to cancel debt or

1363
01:07:42,000 --> 01:07:44,680
Speaker 1: at least to take and federalize the program in a

1364
01:07:44,760 --> 01:07:47,760
Speaker 1: much more direct manner. So I think it's incredibly odd

1365
01:07:47,800 --> 01:07:50,720
Speaker 1: that they went with COVID as the reason to do so.

1366
01:07:50,840 --> 01:07:53,840
Speaker 1: And actually, from what I understand, this could phase a

1367
01:07:53,920 --> 01:07:56,840
Speaker 1: real problem at the Supreme Court if it goes up there.

1368
01:07:56,920 --> 01:07:58,400
Speaker 1: Let's go and put this up there on the screen.

1369
01:07:58,440 --> 01:08:00,560
Speaker 1: This isn't just from here. I've asked around in the

1370
01:08:00,720 --> 01:08:03,280
Speaker 1: legal community, and apparently this is pretty sound, which is

1371
01:08:03,280 --> 01:08:06,880
Speaker 1: that the Supreme Court may actually reject it because and

1372
01:08:06,920 --> 01:08:09,360
Speaker 1: this can look at it under the same scrutiny of

1373
01:08:09,400 --> 01:08:12,720
Speaker 1: which we'll recall the CDC eviction moratorium. You remember that

1374
01:08:12,800 --> 01:08:16,120
Speaker 1: Kavanaugh was like, Hey, CDC, you can't just use COVID

1375
01:08:16,160 --> 01:08:18,200
Speaker 1: as a reason in order to extend this. You need

1376
01:08:18,280 --> 01:08:20,840
Speaker 1: to go and enact this program through Congress. I'm going

1377
01:08:20,880 --> 01:08:22,360
Speaker 1: to allow this to go on for I think it

1378
01:08:22,400 --> 01:08:24,719
Speaker 1: was like sixty days or something like that. Well, eventually

1379
01:08:24,760 --> 01:08:26,760
Speaker 1: what happened is the sixty days expired. Congress did not

1380
01:08:26,920 --> 01:08:29,479
Speaker 1: ultimately pass it until the Supreme Court came through and

1381
01:08:29,520 --> 01:08:31,320
Speaker 1: actually struck it down and there was some sort of

1382
01:08:31,400 --> 01:08:34,519
Speaker 1: Dayton that was reached. This actually could have the same problem,

1383
01:08:34,560 --> 01:08:36,640
Speaker 1: and I think that's also part of the problem with

1384
01:08:36,720 --> 01:08:39,960
Speaker 1: this with the COVID justification, which is that at the

1385
01:08:39,960 --> 01:08:41,800
Speaker 1: same time, I mean, here's the thing, they're ending other

1386
01:08:41,840 --> 01:08:45,479
Speaker 1: programs like Title forty two down at the border, saying oh, well,

1387
01:08:45,479 --> 01:08:48,479
Speaker 1: actually we're gonna end this even because the COVID pandemic

1388
01:08:48,520 --> 01:08:50,840
Speaker 1: is slowing down, but we're also going to declare a

1389
01:08:50,840 --> 01:08:53,599
Speaker 1: public health emergency and use it to cancel student debt. Look,

1390
01:08:53,640 --> 01:08:55,920
Speaker 1: I understand that the people who are recipients as policy

1391
01:08:56,000 --> 01:08:58,640
Speaker 1: don't care whatsoever, but I'm just saying, you know, we

1392
01:08:58,720 --> 01:09:01,280
Speaker 1: have found out the hard way in the past that

1393
01:09:01,520 --> 01:09:04,479
Speaker 1: using novel interpretations of the law, while it can be cool,

1394
01:09:04,840 --> 01:09:07,599
Speaker 1: does not necessarily stand up, and so this could very

1395
01:09:07,800 --> 01:09:11,080
Speaker 1: very certainly go all the way up to the Supreme Court.

1396
01:09:11,320 --> 01:09:13,559
Speaker 1: I just I think it's really strange that they went

1397
01:09:13,680 --> 01:09:16,200
Speaker 1: this way and not with the Obamacare. With Obamacare gives

1398
01:09:16,280 --> 01:09:18,840
Speaker 1: him a much more direct statute in order to do it.

1399
01:09:18,920 --> 01:09:21,160
Speaker 1: They probably did it because this is a faster way

1400
01:09:21,479 --> 01:09:23,800
Speaker 1: and less administrative in order to go about really but

1401
01:09:23,920 --> 01:09:26,080
Speaker 1: here's the thing, I mean, from what I understand, they've

1402
01:09:26,080 --> 01:09:28,640
Speaker 1: been looking at this for a year, so like, why

1403
01:09:28,680 --> 01:09:31,120
Speaker 1: didn't you just use the better I mean, just had

1404
01:09:31,160 --> 01:09:33,760
Speaker 1: really sort of given up on but promised this very

1405
01:09:33,800 --> 01:09:35,960
Speaker 1: directly on the campaign. I mean one of the things

1406
01:09:35,960 --> 01:09:38,840
Speaker 1: Bertie Sanders he repeatedly, you know, talked about at least

1407
01:09:38,840 --> 01:09:40,639
Speaker 1: they would say, at least ten thousand dollars in student

1408
01:09:40,640 --> 01:09:44,440
Speaker 1: debt relief. And so I think that's how ultimately progressives

1409
01:09:44,479 --> 01:09:46,599
Speaker 1: were able to sort of shame him into really taking

1410
01:09:46,640 --> 01:09:49,080
Speaker 1: action here, because obviously he was a little bit like this,

1411
01:09:49,400 --> 01:09:52,599
Speaker 1: you know, this isn't a neoliberal kind of thing to do,

1412
01:09:52,800 --> 01:09:56,439
Speaker 1: like direct debt relief, looking at something and saying, Okay,

1413
01:09:56,640 --> 01:09:59,240
Speaker 1: the problems people have too much debt, We're just going

1414
01:09:59,320 --> 01:10:02,320
Speaker 1: to cancel some that debt is a very not neoliberal

1415
01:10:02,320 --> 01:10:04,880
Speaker 1: thing to do. The typical neoliberal approach would be like,

1416
01:10:05,080 --> 01:10:07,400
Speaker 1: let's have a tax credit, let's have an incentive, let's

1417
01:10:07,400 --> 01:10:11,559
Speaker 1: have a programmed So in that way, even though again

1418
01:10:11,640 --> 01:10:14,679
Speaker 1: I would like to see more, it is a real

1419
01:10:14,960 --> 01:10:19,240
Speaker 1: sign again of a sort of break with the neoliberal order,

1420
01:10:19,439 --> 01:10:23,640
Speaker 1: which is remarkable given that Biden was not just like

1421
01:10:23,680 --> 01:10:27,600
Speaker 1: a participant in but a real architect of that neoliberal

1422
01:10:27,680 --> 01:10:30,800
Speaker 1: order throughout his career and also you know, certainly during

1423
01:10:30,840 --> 01:10:34,840
Speaker 1: the Obama administration. But in terms of the legal justificationalism,

1424
01:10:34,880 --> 01:10:37,360
Speaker 1: I'm gonna let other people who are more versed in

1425
01:10:37,400 --> 01:10:40,640
Speaker 1: this do the deep analysis. All I can say is

1426
01:10:40,680 --> 01:10:45,720
Speaker 1: that presidents have routinely used the authority that they have

1427
01:10:45,840 --> 01:10:48,519
Speaker 1: to grant student loan debt relief. Yes, it has not

1428
01:10:48,560 --> 01:10:51,720
Speaker 1: been this broaden as sweeping, but most of the analysis

1429
01:10:51,720 --> 01:10:54,040
Speaker 1: that I've read says that this is on relatively for

1430
01:10:54,360 --> 01:10:58,240
Speaker 1: legal footing. Then again, it's like, it's not like the

1431
01:10:58,240 --> 01:11:01,759
Speaker 1: Supreme Court really is like honestly parsing through the law

1432
01:11:01,800 --> 01:11:04,080
Speaker 1: and precedent and whatever. They're trying to come up with

1433
01:11:04,120 --> 01:11:06,640
Speaker 1: the justification for whatever they ideologically want to do. So

1434
01:11:06,680 --> 01:11:08,280
Speaker 1: I don't want to bet on that, but I'm very

1435
01:11:08,360 --> 01:11:11,880
Speaker 1: much in favor ultimately of the president doing things that

1436
01:11:11,920 --> 01:11:14,240
Speaker 1: are good and popular, and if they get challenged in

1437
01:11:14,280 --> 01:11:15,760
Speaker 1: court and the court wants to say we're going to

1438
01:11:15,800 --> 01:11:17,960
Speaker 1: take this away, then okay, we'll go down that road.

1439
01:11:18,360 --> 01:11:22,000
Speaker 1: But so ultimately we'll see what happens here. The last

1440
01:11:22,000 --> 01:11:24,200
Speaker 1: thing that I wanted to note that I thought was

1441
01:11:24,360 --> 01:11:27,680
Speaker 1: interesting in terms of this sort of sort of bigger conversation.

1442
01:11:28,120 --> 01:11:30,680
Speaker 1: Ryan Cooper had a good piece that said, let's go

1443
01:11:30,720 --> 01:11:32,599
Speaker 1: ahead and put this up on the screen. This last article,

1444
01:11:32,680 --> 01:11:34,800
Speaker 1: Joe Biden's student debt forgiveness, is a good start, which

1445
01:11:34,800 --> 01:11:36,680
Speaker 1: is kind of how I think about it too. He

1446
01:11:36,760 --> 01:11:38,880
Speaker 1: points out, and this is crazy, and this goes to

1447
01:11:39,040 --> 01:11:42,920
Speaker 1: the stupidity of the neoliberal approach to doing things. The

1448
01:11:42,920 --> 01:11:47,120
Speaker 1: federal government already spends about fifteen percent more on all

1449
01:11:47,160 --> 01:11:50,360
Speaker 1: of its various indirect higher education subsidies than the sum

1450
01:11:50,600 --> 01:11:54,559
Speaker 1: total of all tuition at public colleges and universities. So

1451
01:11:54,640 --> 01:11:57,200
Speaker 1: the money is already there. So it's just a way

1452
01:11:57,240 --> 01:11:59,200
Speaker 1: of saying, like, the way we're doing this right now

1453
01:11:59,280 --> 01:12:02,879
Speaker 1: writ large is really stupid. It's really not cost effective,

1454
01:12:02,920 --> 01:12:05,080
Speaker 1: And there is definitely a lot more to be done.

1455
01:12:05,200 --> 01:12:07,160
Speaker 1: I think also before we move on, we should probably

1456
01:12:07,160 --> 01:12:11,720
Speaker 1: address the inflation debate on this. Yeah. Actually that's important because, yeah,

1457
01:12:11,760 --> 01:12:13,439
Speaker 1: this is one of I think this is one of

1458
01:12:13,479 --> 01:12:17,400
Speaker 1: the more salient critiques of taking this move right now.

1459
01:12:18,160 --> 01:12:21,480
Speaker 1: You know, Larry Summers and Jason Furman, former Obama economists,

1460
01:12:21,479 --> 01:12:24,400
Speaker 1: are very aggressively saying like, this is going to be inflationary,

1461
01:12:24,439 --> 01:12:26,479
Speaker 1: This is the wrong thing to do at the wrong time.

1462
01:12:27,320 --> 01:12:30,519
Speaker 1: The thing that So there's there's two problems I have

1463
01:12:30,600 --> 01:12:34,920
Speaker 1: with that analysis. Number One, people are already not paying

1464
01:12:34,960 --> 01:12:39,320
Speaker 1: their student loansacts been inflationary since we paused it in

1465
01:12:39,360 --> 01:12:41,160
Speaker 1: March of twelve. So it's like, I mean, we're not

1466
01:12:41,280 --> 01:12:44,240
Speaker 1: really changing the baseline right now. People are still not

1467
01:12:44,280 --> 01:12:46,759
Speaker 1: going to be making you know, those payments until December

1468
01:12:46,800 --> 01:12:49,800
Speaker 1: thirty first. But I also, you know, and we've talked

1469
01:12:49,800 --> 01:12:52,280
Speaker 1: about this a lot, I really object to this idea

1470
01:12:52,479 --> 01:12:55,160
Speaker 1: that number one, inflation is primarily driven by the fact

1471
01:12:55,240 --> 01:12:57,559
Speaker 1: that people got a little more money in their pocket.

1472
01:12:57,640 --> 01:13:01,040
Speaker 1: I don't deny that that had an impact. But the

1473
01:13:01,200 --> 01:13:05,400
Speaker 1: bigger problem is the energy prices skyrocketing. The bigger problem

1474
01:13:05,520 --> 01:13:09,120
Speaker 1: is the supply chains, the bigger problem is corporate price gouging.

1475
01:13:09,560 --> 01:13:13,680
Speaker 1: And so I really object to this almost like sociopathic

1476
01:13:13,720 --> 01:13:17,599
Speaker 1: idea that is ascended among elite economists and among the Fed,

1477
01:13:18,000 --> 01:13:20,120
Speaker 1: that the only way we can deal with the inflation

1478
01:13:20,280 --> 01:13:23,200
Speaker 1: issue is basically by crushing the working class and forcing

1479
01:13:23,240 --> 01:13:25,320
Speaker 1: a recession and making them feel a lot of pay Yeah.

1480
01:13:25,360 --> 01:13:27,679
Speaker 1: I mean, so here's the thing. It's actually a terrible

1481
01:13:27,720 --> 01:13:29,639
Speaker 1: way in order to boost the economy. Yeah, you wanted

1482
01:13:29,640 --> 01:13:32,240
Speaker 1: to boost the economy, as we said, Frankly, it's a

1483
01:13:32,280 --> 01:13:35,280
Speaker 1: deflationary move if you make people start paying their payments

1484
01:13:35,600 --> 01:13:39,000
Speaker 1: back in the future. So in a way, we've already

1485
01:13:39,000 --> 01:13:41,800
Speaker 1: had the inflationary move by pausing student debt, really our

1486
01:13:41,880 --> 01:13:44,720
Speaker 1: student payments for the last two years. True, it's complicated.

1487
01:13:44,760 --> 01:13:46,840
Speaker 1: More what I'd say is I generally have no idea.

1488
01:13:46,960 --> 01:13:49,599
Speaker 1: I mean, will it actually impact consumer spending? There's not

1489
01:13:49,640 --> 01:13:51,960
Speaker 1: really a whole lot of evidence either way that you

1490
01:13:52,000 --> 01:13:54,519
Speaker 1: by pausing it, that we did boost consumer spending, and

1491
01:13:54,520 --> 01:13:57,040
Speaker 1: that by taking it away and then restarting payments that

1492
01:13:57,040 --> 01:13:59,720
Speaker 1: we won't ultimately see a wash. So I think it's

1493
01:13:59,720 --> 01:14:02,200
Speaker 1: problem be fifty to fifty. We'd be better off like

1494
01:14:02,680 --> 01:14:04,599
Speaker 1: doing a hell of a lot more in the oil markets.

1495
01:14:04,600 --> 01:14:06,320
Speaker 1: If you really wanted to be like, if you want

1496
01:14:06,320 --> 01:14:08,920
Speaker 1: to solve inflation, we should you know, or hey, listen,

1497
01:14:08,920 --> 01:14:10,600
Speaker 1: you know, you could end certain sanctions on Russia that

1498
01:14:10,600 --> 01:14:12,960
Speaker 1: actually probably have way more. Or we could pressure the

1499
01:14:12,960 --> 01:14:14,760
Speaker 1: crown princes in order to you know. I don't know

1500
01:14:14,800 --> 01:14:17,360
Speaker 1: if people know this, but only a couple of days ago,

1501
01:14:17,439 --> 01:14:19,559
Speaker 1: the crown prints in Saudi Arabia said they were going

1502
01:14:19,600 --> 01:14:22,080
Speaker 1: to cut oil production despite promises to Biden. That is

1503
01:14:22,120 --> 01:14:25,080
Speaker 1: going to have like ten x more of a impact

1504
01:14:25,120 --> 01:14:27,400
Speaker 1: than a lot of this will. In general, I think

1505
01:14:27,400 --> 01:14:30,040
Speaker 1: it'll be a wash. That being said, politically, I have

1506
01:14:30,080 --> 01:14:31,400
Speaker 1: no idea. I mean, I do think a lot of

1507
01:14:31,439 --> 01:14:32,960
Speaker 1: people are gonna get pissed off by this. And I

1508
01:14:33,000 --> 01:14:35,200
Speaker 1: don't think we should underrate the boomer I mean, there's

1509
01:14:35,200 --> 01:14:38,240
Speaker 1: a lot of boomer people who, look, I don't agree

1510
01:14:38,240 --> 01:14:40,519
Speaker 1: with their analysis. I guess I understand where they're coming from.

1511
01:14:40,640 --> 01:14:42,360
Speaker 1: They're like, well, when I was in college, you know,

1512
01:14:42,439 --> 01:14:45,160
Speaker 1: I had a janitor's job and swept my way through. Listen.

1513
01:14:45,200 --> 01:14:47,439
Speaker 1: I mean, college cost is balloon since then. It's just

1514
01:14:47,439 --> 01:14:49,200
Speaker 1: simply not the case. But a lot of these people

1515
01:14:49,240 --> 01:14:50,680
Speaker 1: just don't want to hear the truth, which is that

1516
01:14:50,760 --> 01:14:53,439
Speaker 1: college is probably exploded by two thousand to twenty five

1517
01:14:53,520 --> 01:14:56,120
Speaker 1: hundred percent in terms of costs since they were there.

1518
01:14:56,400 --> 01:14:58,160
Speaker 1: But they're just not going to accept that, and so

1519
01:14:58,240 --> 01:15:01,120
Speaker 1: they are going to be angry. So I could see them,

1520
01:15:01,800 --> 01:15:03,080
Speaker 1: you know, in the same way that a lot of

1521
01:15:03,160 --> 01:15:06,559
Speaker 1: Republican messaging around consumer spending and checks being the major

1522
01:15:06,600 --> 01:15:09,599
Speaker 1: cause inflation. I could see this kind of falling within

1523
01:15:09,640 --> 01:15:12,000
Speaker 1: that trap. But it's all a political wash. I don't know,

1524
01:15:12,040 --> 01:15:14,880
Speaker 1: But checks, ultimately, we're a massive political benefits at parties

1525
01:15:14,920 --> 01:15:18,120
Speaker 1: that they gave a mass right, and you have a

1526
01:15:18,160 --> 01:15:21,000
Speaker 1: lot of people beyond the forty three million who will

1527
01:15:21,080 --> 01:15:23,479
Speaker 1: directly benefit. You have a lot of people who will

1528
01:15:23,520 --> 01:15:27,519
Speaker 1: sort of benefit indirectly who maybe are helping with those payments,

1529
01:15:27,600 --> 01:15:29,680
Speaker 1: or who are the boyfriend or the girlfriend or the

1530
01:15:30,040 --> 01:15:33,120
Speaker 1: husband or wife of the student loan deadholder, or the

1531
01:15:33,600 --> 01:15:36,439
Speaker 1: parents or grandparents who are you know, have had to

1532
01:15:36,520 --> 01:15:38,439
Speaker 1: kick in at times to help their kids to be

1533
01:15:38,479 --> 01:15:43,120
Speaker 1: able to shoulder this burden. So to me, I think,

1534
01:15:43,240 --> 01:15:46,080
Speaker 1: you know, nobody knows for sure how the politics of

1535
01:15:46,080 --> 01:15:48,080
Speaker 1: this will play out, but I'm a lot more confident

1536
01:15:48,160 --> 01:15:51,559
Speaker 1: that material politics ultimately are a good thing that the

1537
01:15:51,560 --> 01:15:54,120
Speaker 1: people who benefit from them, you know, are much more

1538
01:15:54,200 --> 01:15:56,599
Speaker 1: likely to then come out and vote, have a reason

1539
01:15:56,640 --> 01:15:59,000
Speaker 1: to vote, have a reason to feel loyalty to that party,

1540
01:15:59,439 --> 01:16:02,320
Speaker 1: and I can It's hard for me to imagine people

1541
01:16:02,360 --> 01:16:06,160
Speaker 1: being like single issue voters being pissed off that someone

1542
01:16:06,160 --> 01:16:09,040
Speaker 1: else got a benefit that they didn't directly benefit from.

1543
01:16:09,080 --> 01:16:15,880
Speaker 1: But it's obviously multifaceted. Yeah, no idea, it's kurshar. So

1544
01:16:15,960 --> 01:16:19,200
Speaker 1: let's talk about the midterms. Nice segue there. So we

1545
01:16:19,320 --> 01:16:22,720
Speaker 1: had some very interesting results this week in the primaries,

1546
01:16:22,760 --> 01:16:25,639
Speaker 1: and also very interesting results in terms of this New

1547
01:16:25,720 --> 01:16:28,559
Speaker 1: York special election that we have been looking forward to

1548
01:16:28,720 --> 01:16:32,519
Speaker 1: for quite a while now, because this district in upstate

1549
01:16:32,520 --> 01:16:37,040
Speaker 1: New York is as sort of evenly divided and swingy

1550
01:16:37,160 --> 01:16:40,000
Speaker 1: of a district as it possibly could be. This is

1551
01:16:40,040 --> 01:16:42,519
Speaker 1: a district that went by a point and a half

1552
01:16:42,720 --> 01:16:45,920
Speaker 1: to Biden. It's been represented by Democrats, it's been represented

1553
01:16:45,920 --> 01:16:49,479
Speaker 1: by Republicans. Upstate New York is also one of the

1554
01:16:49,520 --> 01:16:53,040
Speaker 1: areas where Democrats were getting shellacked as like you know,

1555
01:16:53,120 --> 01:16:56,479
Speaker 1: Canary and the coal Mine for previous midterm disasters. So

1556
01:16:56,560 --> 01:16:59,680
Speaker 1: everybody's watching this really closely. And you had two candidates

1557
01:16:59,760 --> 01:17:03,240
Speaker 1: who who were both pretty strong, both established politicians in

1558
01:17:03,280 --> 01:17:06,160
Speaker 1: the area that represented significant parts of the district, and

1559
01:17:06,240 --> 01:17:08,600
Speaker 1: the Republican in particular, Mark Molinaro was seen as a

1560
01:17:08,680 --> 01:17:11,320
Speaker 1: very good candidate. He's more of a moderate Republican. He's

1561
01:17:11,360 --> 01:17:13,360
Speaker 1: tried to sort of like have a moderate stance on

1562
01:17:13,439 --> 01:17:17,000
Speaker 1: abortion and other issues. He represents and has for a

1563
01:17:17,040 --> 01:17:20,080
Speaker 1: long time, one of the more significant areas in the district.

1564
01:17:20,080 --> 01:17:22,280
Speaker 1: So it was expected and he did, he would outperform

1565
01:17:22,320 --> 01:17:26,640
Speaker 1: in that county. But ultimately the Democrat really defied the

1566
01:17:26,680 --> 01:17:29,400
Speaker 1: pulling here and ended up pulling off a clear victory.

1567
01:17:29,439 --> 01:17:30,920
Speaker 1: Let's go ahead and put this up on the screen.

1568
01:17:31,920 --> 01:17:34,800
Speaker 1: Pat Ryan, this Business Insider piece says he wrote a

1569
01:17:34,840 --> 01:17:38,400
Speaker 1: wave of fire, anger and indignation over abortion and guns

1570
01:17:38,400 --> 01:17:41,000
Speaker 1: to secure a major special election victory for Democrats in

1571
01:17:41,040 --> 01:17:45,000
Speaker 1: New York. When I checked the margin last night, it

1572
01:17:45,040 --> 01:17:48,360
Speaker 1: was right around two points that pat Ryan had won

1573
01:17:48,400 --> 01:17:50,719
Speaker 1: by their still counting some of the late absentee ballots.

1574
01:17:50,760 --> 01:17:53,920
Speaker 1: But it looks like he outperformed by a little bit

1575
01:17:54,160 --> 01:17:58,160
Speaker 1: how Biden did in the district, which is quite encouraging

1576
01:17:58,320 --> 01:18:02,400
Speaker 1: for Democrats. So let's put this next piece up on

1577
01:18:02,439 --> 01:18:04,880
Speaker 1: the screen. In terms of kind of putting the pieces

1578
01:18:04,920 --> 01:18:07,800
Speaker 1: together of all of these recent special elections. This is

1579
01:18:07,800 --> 01:18:13,719
Speaker 1: from Dave Wasserman. So in every single Postdobs special election,

1580
01:18:14,000 --> 01:18:17,640
Speaker 1: so not primary special elections, the Democrats have overperformed and

1581
01:18:17,680 --> 01:18:21,639
Speaker 1: the Republicans have underperformed. The trend is also very similar

1582
01:18:21,680 --> 01:18:25,519
Speaker 1: across these districts in terms of the more liberal parts

1583
01:18:25,560 --> 01:18:28,519
Speaker 1: of the districts are just really showing up in droves,

1584
01:18:28,800 --> 01:18:32,360
Speaker 1: sort of like white college educated voters, very animated, very

1585
01:18:32,439 --> 01:18:35,120
Speaker 1: much showing up to vote in ways that oftentimes and

1586
01:18:35,160 --> 01:18:37,320
Speaker 1: this is also interesting, the polls are not predicting. So

1587
01:18:37,360 --> 01:18:41,679
Speaker 1: again in this district, you had polls up to election

1588
01:18:41,800 --> 01:18:43,880
Speaker 1: day that had the Republican up by as much as

1589
01:18:43,920 --> 01:18:47,200
Speaker 1: eight points. And so you know the fact that Democrats

1590
01:18:47,240 --> 01:18:50,840
Speaker 1: are outperforming the polls is also unusual. Usually it's the

1591
01:18:50,880 --> 01:18:54,000
Speaker 1: Republicans that do that. So Sager is seen as like

1592
01:18:54,040 --> 01:18:56,840
Speaker 1: a very interesting indicator of where things are. Yeah, you

1593
01:18:56,880 --> 01:18:58,920
Speaker 1: sent this a piece this morning from the New York Times.

1594
01:18:58,920 --> 01:19:00,519
Speaker 1: We don't have it made because it just came out

1595
01:19:00,560 --> 01:19:03,240
Speaker 1: this morning, but it's very interesting. So, on average, Republicans

1596
01:19:03,280 --> 01:19:06,559
Speaker 1: carried the four completed districts by three point seven percentage

1597
01:19:06,560 --> 01:19:08,760
Speaker 1: points compared with Trump's seven point seven edge in the

1598
01:19:08,800 --> 01:19:11,559
Speaker 1: same districts. The results are not just worse, they're actually

1599
01:19:11,600 --> 01:19:15,920
Speaker 1: straightforwardly poor. Republicans need to fare better than Donald Trump,

1600
01:19:16,160 --> 01:19:19,000
Speaker 1: who lost the national vote by four point five points,

1601
01:19:19,120 --> 01:19:22,000
Speaker 1: to retake the House, so they're underperforming by three. They

1602
01:19:22,040 --> 01:19:26,080
Speaker 1: actually need to overperform significantly. They need to overperform to

1603
01:19:26,160 --> 01:19:30,840
Speaker 1: retake the House, let alone contemplate winning the Senate. So look,

1604
01:19:31,160 --> 01:19:33,559
Speaker 1: still a couple months to election day, we don't know.

1605
01:19:33,960 --> 01:19:36,559
Speaker 1: I think we could say definitively at this time that

1606
01:19:36,640 --> 01:19:40,960
Speaker 1: Democratic enthusiasm is much higher than it was in the past. Yeah,

1607
01:19:41,000 --> 01:19:43,920
Speaker 1: and also I think that it does seem that there

1608
01:19:44,040 --> 01:19:48,120
Speaker 1: is a very activated constituency which showed up big time

1609
01:19:48,120 --> 01:19:50,680
Speaker 1: in twenty eighteen and in twenty twenty. Let's put this

1610
01:19:50,760 --> 01:19:54,120
Speaker 1: up there on the screen, which is that Florida turnout

1611
01:19:54,280 --> 01:19:57,640
Speaker 1: was actually higher last night in the Democratic primary than

1612
01:19:57,680 --> 01:20:00,720
Speaker 1: in the blue wave of two thousand and eight. He

1613
01:20:00,800 --> 01:20:04,920
Speaker 1: had one point five million votes in the twenty twenty

1614
01:20:04,920 --> 01:20:08,439
Speaker 1: two primary compared to one point five one point five

1615
01:20:08,479 --> 01:20:10,840
Speaker 1: two versus one point five to one. So the fact

1616
01:20:10,880 --> 01:20:13,200
Speaker 1: that it even comes close to what we know was

1617
01:20:13,240 --> 01:20:18,439
Speaker 1: a major DEM wave in twenty eighteen in terms of turnout, right,

1618
01:20:19,120 --> 01:20:22,360
Speaker 1: that means that this is significant. We should also say, though,

1619
01:20:22,400 --> 01:20:25,160
Speaker 1: what else happened in twenty eighteen, Well, Marshall Blackburn and

1620
01:20:25,160 --> 01:20:27,760
Speaker 1: a bunch of Republicans also still did whin their Senate seeds,

1621
01:20:27,760 --> 01:20:30,320
Speaker 1: so it's not like it was a massive you know,

1622
01:20:30,520 --> 01:20:33,840
Speaker 1: it's not the massive wave that people made it and

1623
01:20:33,880 --> 01:20:36,360
Speaker 1: Republicans did still keep control of the Senate, so it's

1624
01:20:36,360 --> 01:20:39,360
Speaker 1: still possible. One of the interesting things in blue states

1625
01:20:39,400 --> 01:20:41,599
Speaker 1: was that it was like purple areas went more blue,

1626
01:20:41,640 --> 01:20:44,519
Speaker 1: but red states became more red. So it's possible that

1627
01:20:44,600 --> 01:20:47,479
Speaker 1: this could actually flip things a little bit more in

1628
01:20:47,520 --> 01:20:49,640
Speaker 1: that way. I know that doesn't necessarily make sense, but

1629
01:20:49,720 --> 01:20:52,519
Speaker 1: if you think about it, it kind of does. That's

1630
01:20:52,520 --> 01:20:55,519
Speaker 1: actually that's what they're seeing in these districts is in

1631
01:20:55,560 --> 01:21:00,000
Speaker 1: the rural areas, the Republicans are outperforming the Trump mars,

1632
01:21:00,800 --> 01:21:04,960
Speaker 1: but turnout is lower, and it's in those more liberal

1633
01:21:05,000 --> 01:21:07,640
Speaker 1: parts of the district where people are showing up in

1634
01:21:07,720 --> 01:21:12,639
Speaker 1: droves and handing these large margins to Democrats. So look,

1635
01:21:12,720 --> 01:21:14,400
Speaker 1: I mean, and that is the we'll get to this.

1636
01:21:14,880 --> 01:21:17,439
Speaker 1: That is sort of what Republicans are banking on, is

1637
01:21:17,439 --> 01:21:20,839
Speaker 1: maybe these special elections aren't representative of what the electorate

1638
01:21:20,880 --> 01:21:23,439
Speaker 1: will look like in November. But I saw Josh Barrow

1639
01:21:23,439 --> 01:21:26,439
Speaker 1: and his substack was making an interesting point that it's

1640
01:21:26,479 --> 01:21:30,120
Speaker 1: not just that Democrats are super motivated by Dobbs and abortion.

1641
01:21:30,560 --> 01:21:33,960
Speaker 1: It's also that some of the new Republican coalition is

1642
01:21:34,040 --> 01:21:37,000
Speaker 1: kind of turned off by the GOP extremism. This isn't

1643
01:21:37,200 --> 01:21:39,280
Speaker 1: the issue that they signed up to be a part

1644
01:21:39,320 --> 01:21:42,000
Speaker 1: of in the Republican Party. Donald Trump, even though you

1645
01:21:42,040 --> 01:21:43,519
Speaker 1: know he's the person who put these people on the

1646
01:21:43,520 --> 01:21:46,720
Speaker 1: court that effectuated this outcome, he really downplayed the more

1647
01:21:46,760 --> 01:21:51,240
Speaker 1: sort of religiosity component in his campaign in twenty sixteen

1648
01:21:51,560 --> 01:21:54,880
Speaker 1: and attracted people into the coalition who maybe previously been

1649
01:21:55,000 --> 01:21:58,760
Speaker 1: turned off by this, you know, hardcore evangelical messaging. And

1650
01:21:58,800 --> 01:22:00,920
Speaker 1: so now that that's back at the center of the party,

1651
01:22:01,479 --> 01:22:04,840
Speaker 1: you have some Republicans who are like, eh, I'm not

1652
01:22:04,840 --> 01:22:07,120
Speaker 1: feeling these people as much as I was, maybe like

1653
01:22:07,160 --> 01:22:09,160
Speaker 1: six months ago, some of us may have said that,

1654
01:22:09,240 --> 01:22:12,600
Speaker 1: and we're laughed out. For some of us, yes, for

1655
01:22:12,760 --> 01:22:16,040
Speaker 1: a minute now, maybe four years whatever, it's okay, let's

1656
01:22:16,040 --> 01:22:17,599
Speaker 1: go ahead and put this up there on the screen,

1657
01:22:17,680 --> 01:22:20,800
Speaker 1: which only highlights this point even more, which is that

1658
01:22:20,880 --> 01:22:24,000
Speaker 1: new Pew research polling actually shows the economy remains the

1659
01:22:24,000 --> 01:22:28,080
Speaker 1: top midterm issue, but shows that abortion has ranked from

1660
01:22:28,160 --> 01:22:31,559
Speaker 1: forty three percent in March to fifty six percent in

1661
01:22:31,680 --> 01:22:36,160
Speaker 1: August in terms of salience. So top salience August seventy

1662
01:22:36,160 --> 01:22:39,840
Speaker 1: seven percent, economy sixty two percent, guns sixty percent, violent crime,

1663
01:22:40,200 --> 01:22:44,960
Speaker 1: fifty six percent abortion more so even than energy policy. Personally,

1664
01:22:45,040 --> 01:22:48,280
Speaker 1: think that's kind of crazy, but listen, voters are who

1665
01:22:48,320 --> 01:22:51,280
Speaker 1: they are, so to have a thirteen percent jump and

1666
01:22:51,360 --> 01:22:53,479
Speaker 1: to have that also come at the very same time

1667
01:22:53,520 --> 01:22:57,759
Speaker 1: of overperformance, that's obviously going to have a major impact

1668
01:22:57,800 --> 01:22:59,519
Speaker 1: at the ballot box. And this always comes to the

1669
01:22:59,520 --> 01:23:03,559
Speaker 1: more mad parts of midterms. Midterms Yes, are a you know,

1670
01:23:03,640 --> 01:23:05,960
Speaker 1: our referendum on the national mood and all of that,

1671
01:23:06,000 --> 01:23:08,479
Speaker 1: but in general, it really is like whose base is

1672
01:23:08,520 --> 01:23:10,120
Speaker 1: more going to turn out? You know a lot of

1673
01:23:10,160 --> 01:23:12,600
Speaker 1: people don't vote in the midterms, that's true. What is

1674
01:23:12,600 --> 01:23:15,200
Speaker 1: the mid term performance? Maybe like on a bad year,

1675
01:23:15,240 --> 01:23:17,439
Speaker 1: fifty percent, on a good year like seventy five, but

1676
01:23:17,479 --> 01:23:19,200
Speaker 1: it never even comes fins. I don't even think so

1677
01:23:19,360 --> 01:23:21,559
Speaker 1: present it might not even be. I think fifty is

1678
01:23:21,560 --> 01:23:23,080
Speaker 1: more like in the good right, Yeah, so that's what

1679
01:23:23,160 --> 01:23:25,479
Speaker 1: I'm saying. So a lot of people just don't vote,

1680
01:23:25,720 --> 01:23:28,160
Speaker 1: most of them are old. So if you can get

1681
01:23:28,320 --> 01:23:33,240
Speaker 1: people who are younger, people who are more like fencitting

1682
01:23:33,560 --> 01:23:36,880
Speaker 1: type Liberals and friensitting Republicans to not go, fancitting liberals

1683
01:23:36,920 --> 01:23:40,439
Speaker 1: to go, then you can actually significantly change the results. Yeah.

1684
01:23:40,520 --> 01:23:42,800
Speaker 1: Really is all a function of like care enough in

1685
01:23:42,880 --> 01:23:44,599
Speaker 1: order to go and do something, And to circle back

1686
01:23:44,600 --> 01:23:46,840
Speaker 1: to our student loan conversation is part of why I

1687
01:23:46,840 --> 01:23:49,160
Speaker 1: think this will be good for Democrats because one of

1688
01:23:49,200 --> 01:23:51,479
Speaker 1: the most demotivated parts of the base, and also one

1689
01:23:51,520 --> 01:23:53,120
Speaker 1: of the parts of the base that's the hardest to

1690
01:23:53,160 --> 01:23:56,599
Speaker 1: turn out is young people who will disproportionately benefit from

1691
01:23:56,600 --> 01:23:59,880
Speaker 1: this and are overwhelmingly supportive of the move. So that's

1692
01:24:00,080 --> 01:24:01,800
Speaker 1: part of why I feel like in midterms, when it's

1693
01:24:01,840 --> 01:24:04,000
Speaker 1: a turnout game, when it's just about like firing up

1694
01:24:04,040 --> 01:24:06,920
Speaker 1: your people, it probably will be a benefit to them,

1695
01:24:06,920 --> 01:24:10,400
Speaker 1: but ultimately will see. Now the flip side here and

1696
01:24:10,439 --> 01:24:13,200
Speaker 1: the cautionary note which I mentioned before this from Dave wassermon,

1697
01:24:13,280 --> 01:24:15,600
Speaker 1: let's put this up on the screen. Democrats successes in

1698
01:24:15,640 --> 01:24:18,479
Speaker 1: these specials have been fueled by high engagement in college

1699
01:24:18,479 --> 01:24:21,920
Speaker 1: heavy enclaves like Lincoln, Nebraska, Rochester, Minnesota, Ulster County, New York,

1700
01:24:21,920 --> 01:24:25,760
Speaker 1: and Ithaca, New York. Pocket's not all that representative of

1701
01:24:25,800 --> 01:24:29,720
Speaker 1: the larger fall electorate. So that's what Republicans are kind

1702
01:24:29,720 --> 01:24:32,000
Speaker 1: of hanging on to at this point, that you know,

1703
01:24:32,120 --> 01:24:35,640
Speaker 1: these special elections, they're not really representative you're going to have.

1704
01:24:36,040 --> 01:24:37,599
Speaker 1: And it is true in a special election you're going

1705
01:24:37,600 --> 01:24:40,120
Speaker 1: to get even smaller turnout than you ultimately will in

1706
01:24:40,160 --> 01:24:42,120
Speaker 1: the midterm elections. So we're going to have more of

1707
01:24:42,160 --> 01:24:43,680
Speaker 1: our people show up and it's going to be a

1708
01:24:43,680 --> 01:24:46,640
Speaker 1: different landscape. They're holding onto that, and they're holding on to,

1709
01:24:47,200 --> 01:24:50,160
Speaker 1: you know, the macro metrics, the fact that and these

1710
01:24:50,200 --> 01:24:53,240
Speaker 1: are you know, these are hard trends to overcome. The

1711
01:24:53,280 --> 01:24:55,920
Speaker 1: fact that you have an unpopular president and it basically

1712
01:24:55,960 --> 01:24:59,559
Speaker 1: has never happened before that you have a president. In fact,

1713
01:24:59,600 --> 01:25:01,800
Speaker 1: I think it literally has never happened before that you

1714
01:25:01,800 --> 01:25:04,559
Speaker 1: have a president who's miired at forty percent approval rating

1715
01:25:04,600 --> 01:25:08,120
Speaker 1: and their party pickings. It's literally never happened before. So

1716
01:25:08,400 --> 01:25:10,960
Speaker 1: it's not like that's a small thing to take a

1717
01:25:10,960 --> 01:25:14,120
Speaker 1: look at, is it enough? You know, the Dobb's decision

1718
01:25:14,120 --> 01:25:17,320
Speaker 1: and these other factors to sort of overcome the long

1719
01:25:17,400 --> 01:25:20,280
Speaker 1: thrust of history hard to say. And then of course

1720
01:25:20,320 --> 01:25:22,559
Speaker 1: you continue to look at the economic numbers, the fact

1721
01:25:22,600 --> 01:25:25,240
Speaker 1: that you know, so many people feel we're in our recession,

1722
01:25:25,360 --> 01:25:27,519
Speaker 1: so many people say inflation is there number one issue,

1723
01:25:27,560 --> 01:25:29,960
Speaker 1: and they trust Republicans more on the issue. The fact

1724
01:25:29,960 --> 01:25:31,680
Speaker 1: that you have seventy four percent of the country is

1725
01:25:31,720 --> 01:25:34,240
Speaker 1: saying that we're on the wrong track. Normally you would

1726
01:25:34,240 --> 01:25:36,920
Speaker 1: look at those metrics and say it's a wrap like

1727
01:25:36,960 --> 01:25:40,400
Speaker 1: there's nothing Democrats can do. And yet it seems like

1728
01:25:40,640 --> 01:25:44,479
Speaker 1: in a poll after poll, the generic ballot now tied

1729
01:25:44,479 --> 01:25:46,479
Speaker 1: with Democrats actually have a tiny bit of it and

1730
01:25:46,680 --> 01:25:49,519
Speaker 1: edge in terms of the generic ballot, in terms of

1731
01:25:49,520 --> 01:25:52,240
Speaker 1: these special elections, in terms of abortion shooting up as

1732
01:25:52,240 --> 01:25:55,200
Speaker 1: an issue. You have these indicators that it is going

1733
01:25:55,240 --> 01:25:59,040
Speaker 1: to be a much more closely fought battle than it

1734
01:25:59,080 --> 01:26:01,160
Speaker 1: looked like it was going to be be pre jobs.

1735
01:26:01,400 --> 01:26:04,000
Speaker 1: So I found this clip from a YouTube show that

1736
01:26:04,080 --> 01:26:08,000
Speaker 1: hadn't heard about before, where they basically like interview celebrities.

1737
01:26:08,120 --> 01:26:10,400
Speaker 1: In this particular one, there was hot They were eating

1738
01:26:10,479 --> 01:26:14,280
Speaker 1: hot wings with feast and yeah, it's like feast first

1739
01:26:14,360 --> 01:26:17,120
Speaker 1: and feast, okay, and so it's brilliance. They have eleven

1740
01:26:17,120 --> 01:26:19,800
Speaker 1: million subscribers, so they're doing something right over there. Kind

1741
01:26:19,800 --> 01:26:22,880
Speaker 1: of cool actually. But what's interesting is this clip. It

1742
01:26:22,920 --> 01:26:25,519
Speaker 1: actually went viral on Twitter, but I really think it

1743
01:26:25,640 --> 01:26:27,519
Speaker 1: is amazing. And I've been thinking a lot about the

1744
01:26:27,560 --> 01:26:30,720
Speaker 1: movie business lately, and Matt Damon gave a very like

1745
01:26:30,920 --> 01:26:35,479
Speaker 1: cogent and really fascinating view as to why pop culture

1746
01:26:35,720 --> 01:26:39,919
Speaker 1: just seems so stagnant and not able to create movies

1747
01:26:40,280 --> 01:26:42,800
Speaker 1: which we used to think of as like art as

1748
01:26:43,400 --> 01:26:46,720
Speaker 1: you know, not major blockbuster but the types that could

1749
01:26:46,800 --> 01:26:50,040
Speaker 1: either become cult hits or you know, just really take chances.

1750
01:26:50,080 --> 01:26:52,680
Speaker 1: So here's what he had to say. So, I think

1751
01:26:52,720 --> 01:26:55,320
Speaker 1: a scenario lots of viewers can relate to is sitting

1752
01:26:55,320 --> 01:26:57,400
Speaker 1: on the couch on a Friday night, going through the

1753
01:26:57,479 --> 01:27:00,920
Speaker 1: streaming services, cycling through the movies and thinking to themselves,

1754
01:27:01,200 --> 01:27:04,040
Speaker 1: they're not making movies for me anymore. As somebody who's

1755
01:27:04,080 --> 01:27:07,160
Speaker 1: been intimately involved in movie making for thirty years, what

1756
01:27:07,320 --> 01:27:11,720
Speaker 1: are the macro Hollywood conditions behind that sentiment. Well, so

1757
01:27:11,800 --> 01:27:15,479
Speaker 1: what happened was the DVD was a huge part of

1758
01:27:15,479 --> 01:27:19,439
Speaker 1: our business, of our revenue, stream and technology has just

1759
01:27:19,520 --> 01:27:25,120
Speaker 1: made that obsolete. And so the movies that we used

1760
01:27:25,160 --> 01:27:28,040
Speaker 1: to make, you could afford to not make all of

1761
01:27:28,080 --> 01:27:30,720
Speaker 1: your money when it played in the theater, because you

1762
01:27:30,800 --> 01:27:33,320
Speaker 1: knew you had the DVD coming behind the release, and

1763
01:27:33,400 --> 01:27:36,240
Speaker 1: six months later you'd get all, you know, a whole

1764
01:27:36,280 --> 01:27:39,559
Speaker 1: nother chunk. It would be like reopening the movie almost

1765
01:27:40,000 --> 01:27:43,000
Speaker 1: And when that went away, that changed the type of

1766
01:27:43,040 --> 01:27:46,759
Speaker 1: movies that we could make. I did this movie Behind

1767
01:27:46,760 --> 01:27:49,559
Speaker 1: the Candelabra. When I talked to a studio executive who

1768
01:27:49,640 --> 01:27:52,920
Speaker 1: explained it was a twenty five million dollar movie. I

1769
01:27:52,960 --> 01:27:55,080
Speaker 1: would have to put that much into print and advertising

1770
01:27:55,240 --> 01:27:58,200
Speaker 1: right to market it. Who we call p and A,

1771
01:27:58,320 --> 01:27:59,760
Speaker 1: So I'd have to put that in p Anda. So

1772
01:27:59,800 --> 01:28:02,320
Speaker 1: now I'm in fifty million dollars. I have to split

1773
01:28:02,360 --> 01:28:04,479
Speaker 1: everything I get with the exhibitor, right the people who

1774
01:28:04,479 --> 01:28:07,400
Speaker 1: own the movie theaters. So I would have to make

1775
01:28:07,439 --> 01:28:12,759
Speaker 1: a hundred million dollars before I got into profit. And

1776
01:28:13,360 --> 01:28:15,439
Speaker 1: the idea of making a hundred million dollars on a

1777
01:28:15,479 --> 01:28:19,280
Speaker 1: story about like a love affair between these two people. Yeah,

1778
01:28:19,320 --> 01:28:22,639
Speaker 1: I love everyone in the movie, but that's that's suddenly

1779
01:28:22,640 --> 01:28:25,080
Speaker 1: a massive gamble in a way that it wasn't in

1780
01:28:25,120 --> 01:28:27,000
Speaker 1: the nineteen nineties when they were making all those kind

1781
01:28:27,000 --> 01:28:28,439
Speaker 1: of movies, the kind of movies that I loved and

1782
01:28:29,120 --> 01:28:31,120
Speaker 1: the kind of movies that were my bread and butter,

1783
01:28:32,560 --> 01:28:35,559
Speaker 1: perfect explanation. I thought it was really interesting, and you know,

1784
01:28:35,560 --> 01:28:37,720
Speaker 1: it made me really sad because Damon just made one

1785
01:28:37,720 --> 01:28:39,519
Speaker 1: of my favorite movies and made in a long time,

1786
01:28:39,520 --> 01:28:43,800
Speaker 1: which is the last Duel, and flopped flopped massively. It was. Yeah,

1787
01:28:43,840 --> 01:28:46,679
Speaker 1: it was a great movie. He was directed by Ridley Scott.

1788
01:28:46,720 --> 01:28:49,320
Speaker 1: I think it was. Oh my god, it's so cool.

1789
01:28:49,400 --> 01:28:51,960
Speaker 1: So basically it's a movie about the last, you know,

1790
01:28:52,080 --> 01:28:55,120
Speaker 1: major duel fought in France that was like sanctioned, and

1791
01:28:55,400 --> 01:28:57,000
Speaker 1: it's told so I don't want to ruin it. But

1792
01:28:57,040 --> 01:29:00,479
Speaker 1: basically Matt Damon his wife. His wife is raped by

1793
01:29:00,560 --> 01:29:03,160
Speaker 1: another character who's in the movie, and she maintains like

1794
01:29:03,200 --> 01:29:04,880
Speaker 1: she was, like I was raped, and he's like, no,

1795
01:29:04,960 --> 01:29:07,880
Speaker 1: she's lying. It was consensual. Anyway. What leads to is

1796
01:29:07,880 --> 01:29:10,639
Speaker 1: a combat duel between the two men. But the movie

1797
01:29:10,760 --> 01:29:13,639
Speaker 1: is told from the perspectives of all three and it's

1798
01:29:13,640 --> 01:29:17,360
Speaker 1: set in medieval France, so it's really long. It's a

1799
01:29:17,600 --> 01:29:22,880
Speaker 1: genuine like character drama. It's amazing performances. But the problem

1800
01:29:23,040 --> 01:29:25,400
Speaker 1: was is that they spent like one hundred something million

1801
01:29:25,439 --> 01:29:27,720
Speaker 1: dollars on this movie and it didn't make any of

1802
01:29:27,760 --> 01:29:29,960
Speaker 1: its money back. It made like thirty or forty million.

1803
01:29:30,000 --> 01:29:32,240
Speaker 1: And I listened to a couple interviews with Damon and

1804
01:29:32,280 --> 01:29:34,320
Speaker 1: with Ridley Scott, and they're like, yeah, you know, we tried,

1805
01:29:34,400 --> 01:29:36,320
Speaker 1: we tried to make this great movie, but at the

1806
01:29:36,400 --> 01:29:38,120
Speaker 1: end of the day, it's probably just not gonna happen.

1807
01:29:38,160 --> 01:29:41,479
Speaker 1: And from this point forward that type of a major

1808
01:29:41,560 --> 01:29:44,080
Speaker 1: gamble of It had all the ingredients. It had at

1809
01:29:44,120 --> 01:29:47,680
Speaker 1: Matt Damon, It had the guy from Star Wars I'm

1810
01:29:47,680 --> 01:29:50,880
Speaker 1: forgetting his name anyway, from Girls, Star Wars, et cetera,

1811
01:29:50,960 --> 01:29:53,759
Speaker 1: Adam Driver. That's his name. It had Am Driver, Ridley Scott,

1812
01:29:53,800 --> 01:29:56,320
Speaker 1: one of the greatest directors in all of Hollywood, had

1813
01:29:56,320 --> 01:29:59,479
Speaker 1: a massive budget, like one hundred million dollar. Marketing flopped

1814
01:29:59,560 --> 01:30:01,640
Speaker 1: right on. It is a character drama, and at the

1815
01:30:01,720 --> 01:30:03,360
Speaker 1: end of the day, you know you have this amazing,

1816
01:30:03,520 --> 01:30:07,519
Speaker 1: fascinating time piece movie. It'll probably just and Ben Affleck

1817
01:30:07,560 --> 01:30:09,559
Speaker 1: also co wrote it, and start in the movie it

1818
01:30:09,600 --> 01:30:12,519
Speaker 1: will never be made again a movie like that. Instead,

1819
01:30:12,520 --> 01:30:15,160
Speaker 1: they'll make Fast and Furious twenty four. Yeah, Fast Furious

1820
01:30:15,200 --> 01:30:17,479
Speaker 1: twenty four. They just go back to the well of

1821
01:30:17,520 --> 01:30:21,280
Speaker 1: what theyre five is the next time we'll probably see it, right, Yeah,

1822
01:30:22,120 --> 01:30:24,960
Speaker 1: I do. I love those movies too, Listen, I love

1823
01:30:25,439 --> 01:30:28,439
Speaker 1: but I like seeing Matt Damon as a medieval French

1824
01:30:28,479 --> 01:30:32,880
Speaker 1: warrior is Jacques Lagree. You know. Yeah, it's much easier

1825
01:30:33,120 --> 01:30:36,320
Speaker 1: and safer to go with, like this sort of cut

1826
01:30:36,320 --> 01:30:40,080
Speaker 1: and paste recipe of what you know works and what

1827
01:30:40,320 --> 01:30:43,519
Speaker 1: also is sort of like generic enough that you can

1828
01:30:43,520 --> 01:30:45,920
Speaker 1: sell it to a global audience. And you've covered here

1829
01:30:45,960 --> 01:30:49,080
Speaker 1: a lot of times the influence that the Chinese market

1830
01:30:49,400 --> 01:30:52,360
Speaker 1: has on Hollywood now, and so you have this business

1831
01:30:52,360 --> 01:30:56,160
Speaker 1: model that just doesn't make sense anymore for taking those

1832
01:30:56,320 --> 01:30:59,320
Speaker 1: risks on anything, any movie with any sort of a

1833
01:30:59,400 --> 01:31:02,320
Speaker 1: sizable budget. I wonder, though, what do you think about

1834
01:31:02,439 --> 01:31:04,760
Speaker 1: there was a lot of excitement around the sort of

1835
01:31:04,800 --> 01:31:08,040
Speaker 1: innovation within the streaming series, you know, Game of Thrones

1836
01:31:08,040 --> 01:31:12,360
Speaker 1: and these sort of like big budget direct to streaming ventures.

1837
01:31:12,400 --> 01:31:14,360
Speaker 1: What do you think of that piece of that? It's complicated,

1838
01:31:14,400 --> 01:31:17,000
Speaker 1: I mean, if you think about it. Scorsese's direct to

1839
01:31:17,240 --> 01:31:20,280
Speaker 1: Netflix film was a massive flop exactly. I don't even

1840
01:31:20,320 --> 01:31:22,479
Speaker 1: remember what it it was called. Which basically tells everything. It

1841
01:31:22,520 --> 01:31:24,600
Speaker 1: had Robert de Niro and had Joe Paeshi was like

1842
01:31:24,600 --> 01:31:27,280
Speaker 1: three hours and it was like Scorsese Unplugged didn't work

1843
01:31:27,320 --> 01:31:31,240
Speaker 1: that well. To be honest, the major Netflix straight releases

1844
01:31:31,800 --> 01:31:35,799
Speaker 1: have basically been like a budget, big budget action movies,

1845
01:31:35,840 --> 01:31:38,439
Speaker 1: which are fine. You had that movie with the Rock,

1846
01:31:38,520 --> 01:31:41,160
Speaker 1: you had the latest one right now with Ryan Gosling.

1847
01:31:41,200 --> 01:31:43,839
Speaker 1: They did well, certainly, but they're not like great movies.

1848
01:31:44,240 --> 01:31:47,120
Speaker 1: I've seen some good movies on Netflix and elsewhere, but

1849
01:31:47,160 --> 01:31:50,839
Speaker 1: it does seem that they're much more invested in taking

1850
01:31:51,000 --> 01:31:53,240
Speaker 1: a murder which you could tell the story of in

1851
01:31:53,280 --> 01:31:56,720
Speaker 1: two hours, and then stretching it over twelve in order

1852
01:31:56,760 --> 01:31:59,280
Speaker 1: to make sure part one part two, Like, do I

1853
01:31:59,320 --> 01:32:01,719
Speaker 1: really need seven parts on this one serial? Yeah? Maybe

1854
01:32:01,760 --> 01:32:04,439
Speaker 1: just one? It's okay. I mean I also think what's

1855
01:32:04,479 --> 01:32:07,240
Speaker 1: the one I liked? White Lotus? Yeah, well, White Load

1856
01:32:07,280 --> 01:32:09,960
Speaker 1: Zone HBO. That was an amazing movie, amazing series, but

1857
01:32:10,000 --> 01:32:12,759
Speaker 1: again you know that was a mini series. That's also HBO,

1858
01:32:12,800 --> 01:32:15,200
Speaker 1: which has always been in boutique kind of high brow

1859
01:32:15,280 --> 01:32:18,120
Speaker 1: content in terms they have kind of a business model

1860
01:32:18,120 --> 01:32:20,360
Speaker 1: though that works, yes, through but they've had this as

1861
01:32:20,400 --> 01:32:23,240
Speaker 1: the nineteen nineties, and is that basically because it's subscription.

1862
01:32:23,360 --> 01:32:25,360
Speaker 1: Because it was subscription, it wasn't cable. It never went

1863
01:32:25,439 --> 01:32:28,320
Speaker 1: mass market. So they had Sopranos, which their first big hit,

1864
01:32:28,360 --> 01:32:31,000
Speaker 1: and they kind of invented TV drama kind of as

1865
01:32:31,040 --> 01:32:33,519
Speaker 1: it exists today. Then they had the Wire they have

1866
01:32:33,880 --> 01:32:36,400
Speaker 1: they have a formula there with works almost everything they've made,

1867
01:32:36,400 --> 01:32:38,840
Speaker 1: because that's the part of the ecosystem that to me

1868
01:32:38,960 --> 01:32:41,920
Speaker 1: seems much better than when I was growing up. And

1869
01:32:42,040 --> 01:32:44,160
Speaker 1: you know, watching as much as I love like Full

1870
01:32:44,160 --> 01:32:47,479
Speaker 1: House and Saba the Bell like and I do, I

1871
01:32:47,479 --> 01:32:50,920
Speaker 1: love Box Shack, I do, but yeah, they you know,

1872
01:32:51,040 --> 01:32:56,599
Speaker 1: these like very rich, like cinema level, highly highly written

1873
01:32:56,640 --> 01:32:59,559
Speaker 1: with you know, incredible stars, like all of that sort

1874
01:32:59,560 --> 01:33:03,280
Speaker 1: of stuff. That is the new that is very different

1875
01:33:03,400 --> 01:33:06,000
Speaker 1: nothing with a lot better than when I was growing up.

1876
01:33:06,240 --> 01:33:11,240
Speaker 1: But I also think there's more going on here than

1877
01:33:11,479 --> 01:33:15,880
Speaker 1: just a business model shift, because you see it across

1878
01:33:16,760 --> 01:33:19,559
Speaker 1: different facets of our culture, Like you see it in

1879
01:33:19,920 --> 01:33:22,639
Speaker 1: music as well, you see it in business as well.

1880
01:33:23,160 --> 01:33:25,240
Speaker 1: How many times we talked about, like, you know, all

1881
01:33:25,280 --> 01:33:27,719
Speaker 1: these social media companies that are supposedly like the bleeding

1882
01:33:27,800 --> 01:33:30,919
Speaker 1: edge of innovation whatever, they're all just like copying TikTok,

1883
01:33:31,439 --> 01:33:34,479
Speaker 1: you know, the level of actual innovation, because I mean,

1884
01:33:34,479 --> 01:33:37,640
Speaker 1: again that does come back to a business issue, because companies,

1885
01:33:37,880 --> 01:33:40,640
Speaker 1: tech companies or any other company, they're not really rewarded

1886
01:33:40,720 --> 01:33:44,840
Speaker 1: for innovation and taking risks. They're rewarded for giving dividends

1887
01:33:44,920 --> 01:33:48,360
Speaker 1: and doing stock buybacks, and so that's what they're incentivized

1888
01:33:48,360 --> 01:33:50,839
Speaker 1: to do, and they use that rather than like creating

1889
01:33:50,840 --> 01:33:53,120
Speaker 1: new products or investing in their workforce or investing in

1890
01:33:53,160 --> 01:33:56,559
Speaker 1: their equipment and certainly investing in innovation. Instead they just

1891
01:33:56,600 --> 01:33:59,080
Speaker 1: sort of like keep eating the seed corn to your point,

1892
01:33:59,240 --> 01:34:02,839
Speaker 1: just came out new yesterday. Blackstone is looking to purchase

1893
01:34:02,960 --> 01:34:08,880
Speaker 1: Pink Floyd's entire album for five hundred million dollars because people,

1894
01:34:09,240 --> 01:34:11,599
Speaker 1: a lot of old people don't listen to new music anymore.

1895
01:34:11,640 --> 01:34:13,200
Speaker 1: They're just like, oh, let me go fire up a

1896
01:34:13,240 --> 01:34:15,559
Speaker 1: Pink Floyd and listen. Pink Floyd is fine, and so

1897
01:34:15,800 --> 01:34:18,599
Speaker 1: don't come after me. But I mean, you know, someone

1898
01:34:18,640 --> 01:34:20,240
Speaker 1: who listens to a lot of like hip hop and

1899
01:34:20,320 --> 01:34:21,920
Speaker 1: rap from when I was in high school in college,

1900
01:34:21,960 --> 01:34:24,640
Speaker 1: I can't really talk'd be nice to just listen to

1901
01:34:24,640 --> 01:34:26,880
Speaker 1: some new music for every once in a while. I mean,

1902
01:34:27,200 --> 01:34:29,120
Speaker 1: I think this fact is is that a lot of

1903
01:34:29,120 --> 01:34:30,960
Speaker 1: the movie stars and some of the best movies that

1904
01:34:31,000 --> 01:34:33,120
Speaker 1: were made would just never get made today. So Matt

1905
01:34:33,200 --> 01:34:36,040
Speaker 1: Damon made his bones on Goodwill Hunting. Good Will Hunting

1906
01:34:36,080 --> 01:34:38,640
Speaker 1: was a massive hit. It was a cultural sensation. No

1907
01:34:38,680 --> 01:34:40,839
Speaker 1: way it gets made today. Yeah, Silence of the Lambs,

1908
01:34:41,280 --> 01:34:43,559
Speaker 1: you know, based on a book, you have these breakout

1909
01:34:43,560 --> 01:34:47,240
Speaker 1: performances like Jodie Foster as an adult and Hannibal Lecter,

1910
01:34:47,360 --> 01:34:49,320
Speaker 1: you know, the guy wins the oscar after spending only

1911
01:34:49,320 --> 01:34:51,639
Speaker 1: like eleven minutes on the screen. This stuff has gone.

1912
01:34:51,680 --> 01:34:53,360
Speaker 1: It's just not good. Yeah, every once in a while

1913
01:34:53,360 --> 01:34:55,240
Speaker 1: a good one squeaks through. Actually, Damon was in that

1914
01:34:55,320 --> 01:34:58,120
Speaker 1: movie Still Water, which was awesome. So like I'm not

1915
01:34:58,160 --> 01:35:01,320
Speaker 1: saying it can't happen, there can be still like that. Really,

1916
01:35:01,320 --> 01:35:03,479
Speaker 1: Oh I loved it. I thought it was cool. Well

1917
01:35:03,680 --> 01:35:06,479
Speaker 1: I don't know, Well, there you go, right, Which is

1918
01:35:06,520 --> 01:35:10,879
Speaker 1: that even then, like the true like awesome, risk taking

1919
01:35:11,360 --> 01:35:13,679
Speaker 1: movies that they used to make in the studio system

1920
01:35:13,920 --> 01:35:16,719
Speaker 1: is just gone. And based on everything that I've read,

1921
01:35:16,840 --> 01:35:19,160
Speaker 1: it is probably just not going to come back for

1922
01:35:19,280 --> 01:35:22,080
Speaker 1: a really long time if ever. And I think that's sad.

1923
01:35:22,120 --> 01:35:24,439
Speaker 1: I think that people growing up today, you know, are

1924
01:35:24,479 --> 01:35:27,240
Speaker 1: basically you get high brow content and HBO and then

1925
01:35:27,320 --> 01:35:30,000
Speaker 1: Netflix and everything else is like is it cake or

1926
01:35:30,400 --> 01:35:34,200
Speaker 1: Formula one? Season five? Fine, I'm just saying, you know,

1927
01:35:34,200 --> 01:35:37,439
Speaker 1: I want a little bit more. I watched My daughter

1928
01:35:37,479 --> 01:35:42,120
Speaker 1: made me watch that movie. Not that movie, the show ultimatum.

1929
01:35:42,280 --> 01:35:44,080
Speaker 1: Oh I didn't watch that one. I watched Love Is Blind,

1930
01:35:44,160 --> 01:35:46,160
Speaker 1: of which, by the way, Nick Thompson shout out, great

1931
01:35:46,160 --> 01:35:49,799
Speaker 1: fan of the show. By the way, after the altar,

1932
01:35:50,000 --> 01:35:51,920
Speaker 1: season two is coming out, so we'll catch up with

1933
01:35:51,920 --> 01:35:54,280
Speaker 1: the Love Is Blind couples looking forward to that. Duram

1934
01:35:54,960 --> 01:35:57,160
Speaker 1: so I'm a victim as just as much as I am. Indeed,