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Speaker 1: Welcome to hoops Tonight, presented by FanDuel here at the volume.
Speaker 1: Happy Wednesday, everybody. I hope all of you guys are
Speaker 1: having a great week so far. We are moving off
Speaker 1: with their power rankings today onto number four team, the
Speaker 1: Minnesota Timberwolves are really really interesting team to dive into
Speaker 1: because once again we have to throw away just about
Speaker 1: everything from last season because they traded a traded out
Speaker 1: a bunch of their players for Rudy Gobert, which obviously
Speaker 1: changes fundamentally the identity of this particular basketball team. They
Speaker 1: should be a really really interesting watch this year. They
Speaker 1: have one of my favorite young players in the league
Speaker 1: and Anthony Edwards. It was a lot of fun diving
Speaker 1: into this. You guys know the drill before we get started.
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Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts. Under Hoops Tonight. One last thing.
Speaker 1: Please bear with me guys. Last week on Thursday, when
Speaker 1: I said I had allergies, turns out I had some
Speaker 1: sort of upper respiratory illness was not COVID. I tested negative.
Speaker 1: It really took it out of me. It's the most
Speaker 1: sick I've been since I had COVID, which was in
Speaker 1: the fall of and I'm kind of over it now,
Speaker 1: but it has destroyed my lungs and destroyed my vote,
Speaker 1: my voice, and I've been dealing with some coughing and stuff.
Speaker 1: So apologies in advance for just the lack of overall
Speaker 1: vocal energy, but I appreciate you guys bearing with me. Um.
Speaker 1: All right, So, last year, the Timberwolves were seventh in
Speaker 1: offense in defense. They were one of the teams for
Speaker 1: those of you guys who were following the show at
Speaker 1: this point as the season was coming to an end
Speaker 1: the regular season, this is one of the teams that
Speaker 1: I was focusing on a lot because they were playing really,
Speaker 1: really well. Now there was some context there, like they
Speaker 1: went thirty and sixteen over their last forty six games.
Speaker 1: That was from January three to the end of the season,
Speaker 1: but they did play a lot of teams that were,
Speaker 1: you know, good in the sense that they's it showed
Speaker 1: their strength of schedule to be strong because of the
Speaker 1: records of the teams they were playing. But like almost
Speaker 1: every night that they were playing a good team, somebody
Speaker 1: was sitting out. And this is classic U n B.
Speaker 1: A load management problems. You guys know, I would love
Speaker 1: to see them cut the season down from eight two
Speaker 1: to sixty six games. I know that's a non starter
Speaker 1: for the owners and the players because they want money,
Speaker 1: But to me, it's pretty simple. I believe that right
Speaker 1: now the product is crap because almost every time you
Speaker 1: get a marquee matchup on national TV, at least one
Speaker 1: star is missing, if not both because of the the
Speaker 1: need that teams feel to prepare for load management throughout
Speaker 1: the season. If you shortened the schedule to the point
Speaker 1: where teams were only playing three times a week, they'd
Speaker 1: have automatic baked in looad management. They'd have at least
Speaker 1: one stretch every week where they'd have two consecutive nights off.
Speaker 1: I think it would lead to the to a league
Speaker 1: where almost every one of these marquee matchups had all
Speaker 1: the stars playing, and not not to mention an additional
Speaker 1: twenty percent of urgency in how much value there is
Speaker 1: in a win or how much pain there is in
Speaker 1: a loss. I believe that that decrease in regular season
Speaker 1: volume of games would be replaced by at least increase
Speaker 1: in quality of play. But that's another separate soapbox. For
Speaker 1: me there um. But the Timberwolves were a huge beneficiary
Speaker 1: of that last year. They ended up going like I said,
Speaker 1: from January three on thirty and sixteen. They had the
Speaker 1: number one offense in the league during that span, the
Speaker 1: number sixteen defense, number five overall in net rating. Um.
Speaker 1: They end up getting out of the play in tournament
Speaker 1: and they make it to the Grizzlies and a really
Speaker 1: bizarre series where they lose in six games, but they
Speaker 1: end up pretty much controlling five of the six games.
Speaker 1: They just completely fell apart at the end of every
Speaker 1: single game. For those of you guys who remember when
Speaker 1: I did that series preview for that particular series, my
Speaker 1: biggest fear for Minnesota going into that series was late
Speaker 1: game decision making. And you're gonna hear me talk about this.
Speaker 1: A lot basketball games are one and lost at the
Speaker 1: end in a lot of cases because it's it's a
Speaker 1: lot easier in a smaller sample size for the better
Speaker 1: team to lock in and really, truly, you know, beat
Speaker 1: come what their basketball identity is, and if they're the
Speaker 1: better team than you, they're gonna take care of business
Speaker 1: down the stretch of a game. Yes, for three quarters,
Speaker 1: you might be able to hang with them for one
Speaker 1: reason or another because maybe they don't truly feel threatened
Speaker 1: or whatever the deal is. But at the end of
Speaker 1: a game, you become who you truly are as a
Speaker 1: basketball team. And I was worried that Anthony Edwards, who
Speaker 1: I really like, but as young in D'Angelo Russell, who's
Speaker 1: a player that I don't particularly like. I had a
Speaker 1: feeling that they were going to struggle with like game
Speaker 1: decision making, and they did. In the fourth quarters of
Speaker 1: that series, the Timberwolves were outscored by forty one point
Speaker 1: six points per one hundred possessions. They were absolutely terrible
Speaker 1: on both ends of the floor in clutch time, So
Speaker 1: when the games were within five points with less than
Speaker 1: five minutes remaining, they had a negative forty points six
Speaker 1: net ratings, So they were outscored by forty points seven
Speaker 1: points every one hundred possessions. Terrible on both ends of
Speaker 1: the floor. So they were a terrible fourth quarter team
Speaker 1: and a terrible clutch team, which was my biggest fear
Speaker 1: going into that series, and it costs them because you
Speaker 1: could argue that they were the better team and they
Speaker 1: controlled throughout that series. They frequently had large leads and
Speaker 1: they just weren't able to do anything with it. Excuse me.
Speaker 1: So obviously, in this offseason, the Timberwolves undergo a change
Speaker 1: of UH in their basketball operations department. They bring in
Speaker 1: Tim Connolly. He immediately is very aggressive and makes the
Speaker 1: Rudy go Beart trade, flipping Patrick Beverley. They're starting point
Speaker 1: guard Molik Beasley, They're starting to guard their UH um
Speaker 1: or three depending on whether or not they were starting
Speaker 1: Delo on any given moment, and then UM Jared Vanderbilt,
Speaker 1: their best wing on the roster. They flipped those three guys,
Speaker 1: a couple of younger players, four first round draft picks,
Speaker 1: and a pick swap for Rudy Gobert. I was truly
Speaker 1: shocked by that. UM. I thought Rudy Gobert was a
Speaker 1: negative asset. Now, to be clear, there's a difference between
Speaker 1: negative as set a negative player. I just thought, because
Speaker 1: of Rudy's offensive limitations and the fact that he was
Speaker 1: gonna be making forty plus million, you know, longer, you know,
Speaker 1: all the way to six or something, that teams would
Speaker 1: be hesitant to trade for him. Clearly I was wrong
Speaker 1: about that. He there UH was at least one GM
Speaker 1: in the league. Of viewed him as very valuable um
Speaker 1: but so essentially what they did if you zoomed out
Speaker 1: from that trade, they exchanged three really good perimeter defenders
Speaker 1: for one great back line anchor, arguably the best in
Speaker 1: the league. I think Anthony Davis when he's engaged, as
Speaker 1: a little better. I think Janice is a little better.
Speaker 1: But I think Gobert's right there as a top three
Speaker 1: defensive player in all of basketball. He's one of those
Speaker 1: guys that's kind of become the butt of the joke
Speaker 1: for a lot of basketball fans, but that's not actually
Speaker 1: backed up with what you see in tape. The defensive
Speaker 1: issues for the Utah Jazz had nothing to do with
Speaker 1: Rudy Gobert and everything to do with everybody else on
Speaker 1: their roster. I expect him to come in and immediately
Speaker 1: make Minnesota a great defensive team. They also signed Kyle Anderson,
Speaker 1: Austin Rivers, and Brent Forbes. Kyle Anderson and Austin Rivers
Speaker 1: are both above average defensive players for their position. Both
Speaker 1: of them are somewhat inconsistent offensively. We'll get in a
Speaker 1: little bit further into them later. Kyle Anderson can do
Speaker 1: some stuff attacking smaller defenders and shooting over the top.
Speaker 1: Austin Rivers is capable as an on ball creator, but
Speaker 1: obviously below average compared to some of his peers around
Speaker 1: the league. And then Brent Forbes is your textbook off
Speaker 1: the bench type of shooter. You know, Um, you know.
Speaker 1: NBA coaches are constantly obsessed with like what they can
Speaker 1: do to run offense for periods of the game when
Speaker 1: their stars are out of the game, and they they
Speaker 1: they have the ability to run defense, a run offensive
Speaker 1: players off of screens that's in their offense already. They
Speaker 1: did that a lot with Molik Beasley last year. I
Speaker 1: think they'll run some similar sets like that with Brent
Speaker 1: formed with Brent Forbes this year. Off the bench, they
Speaker 1: also dress drafted Wendell Moore Jr. He's a classic wing
Speaker 1: that can do a little bit of everything, but I
Speaker 1: don't think he'll play much this year. If we look
Speaker 1: at the depth chart at the guard position, their guard heavy.
Speaker 1: They have Dangel Russell, Anthony Edwards, Jalen Noel, uh Bryn Forbes,
Speaker 1: Awesome Rivers, and Jordan McLoughlin. Um, Jalen Noel and Jordan
Speaker 1: McLoughlin are gonna be two interesting guys to watch. I
Speaker 1: don't know a ton about them at this point. I
Speaker 1: need to watch more film, but those are two guys
Speaker 1: from what I've heard that Minnesota's depending on Big Time
Speaker 1: to replace a little bit of what Malik Beasley and
Speaker 1: Patrick Beverley did for them, Um on the Way and
Speaker 1: Kyle Anderson, Torrian Prince and Jadie McDaniels. And then as
Speaker 1: BIG's they have Rudy Gobert, Carl Anthony Towns and Nas
Speaker 1: read So. On the offensive end of the floor, they
Speaker 1: run a lot of isolation. They were the seventh most
Speaker 1: frequent isolation team last year and the fourth most efficient. Now.
Speaker 1: Generally speaking, isolation is kind of youed as like a
Speaker 1: bad word in the basketball world, especially amongst the coaches,
Speaker 1: because they associated with stagnation, and a lot of coaches
Speaker 1: don't like ISO because they think of it as like
Speaker 1: bad offense essentially. Um. To me, though, I think isolation
Speaker 1: is a little bit undervalued, especially in the modern NBA,
Speaker 1: for a couple of different reasons. First of all, Um,
Speaker 1: in a playoffs setting, in particular, a lot of teams
Speaker 1: do a lot more switching than usual, and in addition
Speaker 1: to that, they scout your sets, and so your your
Speaker 1: sets are far less likely to actually generate quality shots
Speaker 1: in a playoff setting than they are in the regular
Speaker 1: season because every coach has seen, like the advanced scouts
Speaker 1: have seen every single play you've run during the season.
Speaker 1: They've charted how often you ran those plays, and they've
Speaker 1: presented that information to the coaching staff, and the coaching
Speaker 1: staff coaches the players on how to jump in front
Speaker 1: of specific actions to deny UH. You know, maybe an
Speaker 1: entry pass here there to stop the play from UH
Speaker 1: from taking place, or a preplanned switch to take care
Speaker 1: of a shooter coming off of a screen, or whatever
Speaker 1: the action is. They find ays to scout ahead of
Speaker 1: that stuff. And so a lot of times in playoff
Speaker 1: series is it does devolve into isolation basketball. And you
Speaker 1: know what it really comes down to. Isolation basketball is
Speaker 1: physical advantages. And you know, Anthony Edwards and Carl Town's
Speaker 1: have physical advantages over almost every single defensive player that
Speaker 1: they're gonna face in this league, right, So it's not
Speaker 1: bad for them to do, UH, to rely on a
Speaker 1: good amount of isolation basketball. I think it's smart for
Speaker 1: what their roster can do. And again, a lot of ice,
Speaker 1: so they were the number one offense in the league
Speaker 1: for more than the second half of the season, a
Speaker 1: little bit over what I say, like forty six games
Speaker 1: or something like that, so that's pretty substantial. The other
Speaker 1: thing with isolation basketball, the second big advantage is it's
Speaker 1: avoiding bringing other defenders into the play. So, you know,
Speaker 1: if I want to pick and roll or some sort
Speaker 1: of off ball screening action or dribble handoff or anything
Speaker 1: that involves multiple offensive players in some sort of exchange,
Speaker 1: what's gonna happen there is I'm bringing other defenders to
Speaker 1: the play. So if I'm bringing the ball up the
Speaker 1: floor on the right wing and I call for a
Speaker 1: pick and roll and the other team is scared of
Speaker 1: me and they want to try to get the ball
Speaker 1: out of my hands or use second defenders or third
Speaker 1: defenders to dissuade me from getting to my spots, if
Speaker 1: I bring a screener up, it's easier that I'm bringing
Speaker 1: a second defender up, and if they're playing is to
Speaker 1: get the ball out of my hand, they can jump
Speaker 1: me on that pick and roll by trapping right, or
Speaker 1: like if I'm running a dribble hand off or an
Speaker 1: off ball screening action, by bringing that second defender into
Speaker 1: the play. I make it easier for the other team
Speaker 1: potentially to deny me the basketball. Even though yes, it
Speaker 1: will lead to openings elsewhere, it does cause some problems
Speaker 1: for you as the ball handler in isolation. If they're
Speaker 1: gonna offer help, they're gonna have to straight up a
Speaker 1: band in their man to do so, which allows you
Speaker 1: to open up things in terms of drive and kick.
Speaker 1: So there are advantages to ISO. Don't let coaches and
Speaker 1: old fashioned basketball minds convince you that it's a bad thing.
Speaker 1: It just it needs to be done smartly. It needs
Speaker 1: to be done with the right matchups. It needs to
Speaker 1: be done when you have physical advantages, and it needs
Speaker 1: to be done with the proper spacing, and it needs
Speaker 1: to be done with uh what while taking into account
Speaker 1: rhythm in the way that the other players on the
Speaker 1: floor are impacted. To make a long story short, isolation
Speaker 1: is fine, but just like any other thing, it's about
Speaker 1: balance and figuring out how you can have counters from
Speaker 1: that or mix things up so that you don't become predictable.
Speaker 1: I am not an anti ISO basketball guy. Um. In
Speaker 1: terms of pick and roll, they did not run a
Speaker 1: lot of pick and roll last year they were twenty
Speaker 1: four and pick and roll attempts. That's to be expected.
Speaker 1: They didn't have a good role man. Naz Reid is
Speaker 1: a good big man, and and obviously Karl Anthony Towns
Speaker 1: is dynamic as a score and as a perimeter shooter,
Speaker 1: but he's not a good role man. He's not a
Speaker 1: vertical spacer. So it wasn't a thing that that they
Speaker 1: were going to do last year because it didn't play
Speaker 1: into their strengths. But that is one of the very
Speaker 1: few things that Rudy Gobert is good at. You know,
Speaker 1: my my, my criticisms of Rudy Gobert mainly lie on
Speaker 1: the offensive end of the floor. I think, you know,
Speaker 1: I think his inability to punish switches and post up
Speaker 1: situations as a problem. I think he's generally slow making decisions,
Speaker 1: so he's not good in the short role. Obviously he
Speaker 1: can't shoot from the perimeter. But there are two things
Speaker 1: on offense that he's outstanding at. That's he's an outstanding
Speaker 1: screener and he's an outstanding vertical threat. So what's one
Speaker 1: thing I can do on the offensive end of the
Speaker 1: floor that's going to properly use Rudy Gobert and what
Speaker 1: he does well pick and roll. So even though they
Speaker 1: were twenty four and pick and roll attempts last year,
Speaker 1: I expect a significant increase in the Timberwolves pick and
Speaker 1: roll offense this year. I expect him to do it
Speaker 1: a whole lot more. One last note on Rudy. He
Speaker 1: is very good as an offensive rebounder as well. That's
Speaker 1: one of the things that he can do on the
Speaker 1: offensive end, but he is somewhat limited on that. He's
Speaker 1: straight up just a role player, even maybe less than
Speaker 1: that on the offensive end of the floor. They ran
Speaker 1: a lot of off screen plays last year. There were
Speaker 1: seventh most in the NBA, but again that was a
Speaker 1: lot of Malik Beasley. The vast majority of their off
Speaker 1: screen actions were Malik Beasley flying off of screens and
Speaker 1: pin downs um to look to shoot or to curl
Speaker 1: around and try to make a play with him being gone.
Speaker 1: I expect that to kind of go by the wayside.
Speaker 1: So just kind of think like a lot a lot there.
Speaker 1: They were a lot of is, so last year there
Speaker 1: will be a lot of is. So they were not
Speaker 1: very much pick and roll last year. I expect a
Speaker 1: lot more pick and roll. There were a lot of
Speaker 1: off screen stuff last year. I expect a lot less
Speaker 1: of that, but I do think they'll do a lot
Speaker 1: of that with Bryn Forbes off the bench, just not
Speaker 1: enough to make up for what Malik Beasley was doing,
Speaker 1: so I expect them to be somewhat low volume in
Speaker 1: that regard, so kind of zooming out. This is a
Speaker 1: mismatch attacking isolation team has two players that can constantly
Speaker 1: have physical advantages around the floor, Karl Anthony Towns and
Speaker 1: Anthony Edwards. And then I think they'll supplement that with
Speaker 1: a lot of high pick and roll with Rudy Gobert,
Speaker 1: either with Dilo and Angelo Russell or excuse me, D'Angelo
Speaker 1: Russell or Aunt. Those are the two guys that I
Speaker 1: expect to run a ton of pick and roll with Gobert.
Speaker 1: When it comes to their isolation play with Carl Towns
Speaker 1: and with Aunt, it's gonna all be about spacing. The
Speaker 1: issue was his Rudy Gobert because he can't shoot from
Speaker 1: the perimeter because he's, you know, basically just a vertical
Speaker 1: spacing threat who can screen well. He's going to be
Speaker 1: in the dunker spot a lot, which is going to
Speaker 1: flat out affect their spacing. The driving lanes are not
Speaker 1: going to be as good for Anthony Edwards as they
Speaker 1: were last year. That's simply a fact of that trade.
Speaker 1: As soon as you made that decision to flip a
Speaker 1: five out team with Carl Towns as your rims, your
Speaker 1: floor spacing big too. Now having a non spacing center,
Speaker 1: it's going to change the dynamic of driving lanes for
Speaker 1: this team. The other guy that I'm worried about them
Speaker 1: in terms of their spacing is Kyle Anderson. He's a
Speaker 1: good defensive wing and they lost a good defensive wing
Speaker 1: with Jared Vanderbilt, so I expect them to play him
Speaker 1: quite a bit. He was thirty two on catch and
Speaker 1: shoot threes last year. If they have Kyle Anderson and
Speaker 1: Rudy Gobert on the floor at the same time, things
Speaker 1: could really get clogged for them in the paint. One
Speaker 1: of the benefits about this partnership of having two bigs
Speaker 1: on the offensive end of the floor. We're gonna talk
Speaker 1: about the defensive end. I think the having two Biggs
Speaker 1: things could present some problems for them there. But on
Speaker 1: the offensive end of the floor, you know, Carl Town's
Speaker 1: shooting ability makes it so that in theory, if you
Speaker 1: have the other guys that can shoot, it could work
Speaker 1: out and still have some you know, um usability. Uniquely,
Speaker 1: what Carl Towns does so well is he's amazing shooting
Speaker 1: above the break. The vast majority of role players around
Speaker 1: the league shoot pretty well from the corners and not
Speaker 1: as well above the break. Simple math, it's a further shot, right, um,
Speaker 1: But Carl Town's attempted five above the break threes per
Speaker 1: game last year and shot on them. So you can
Speaker 1: tuck him further away from the basket. And you know,
Speaker 1: especially with him and how quick his releases, he's gonna
Speaker 1: pull a pretty big defensive player really far away from
Speaker 1: the basket. That will that that part will make some
Speaker 1: of the go Bear lineups at least usable. But I
Speaker 1: think in the aggregate, the overall spacing of the lineup
Speaker 1: will not be as good as it was last year. Um.
Speaker 1: I think Rudy Gobert is going to be in pick
Speaker 1: and roll as the natural counter to their spacing problem.
Speaker 1: So again, it's just gonna keep him more involved in
Speaker 1: the offense if he stands in the dunker spot. Any
Speaker 1: really good defensive big is gonna be capable of helping
Speaker 1: on drives while still dissuading Rudy around the rim. That's
Speaker 1: gonna be a problem for them. But in pick and roll,
Speaker 1: he's gonna have a head of steam going downhill. It's
Speaker 1: just gonna be harder for his defender to to deal
Speaker 1: with him in a pick and roll situation than he
Speaker 1: is uh in the dunker spot. So again, pick and
Speaker 1: roll is gonna be their counter to their spacing issues.
Speaker 1: The number one issue I have with them on the
Speaker 1: offensive end of the floor is going to be their
Speaker 1: clutch offense and decision making, like we talked about earlier.
Speaker 1: So in clutch time, in eighteen minutes against Memphis, So again,
Speaker 1: that's eighteen minutes in the series where there was less
Speaker 1: than five minutes remaining on the clock and the scoring
Speaker 1: margin was five points or less, D'Angelo Russell and Anthony
Speaker 1: Edwards combined to go three for sixteen from the field,
Speaker 1: including one for eight from three. That's I don't see
Speaker 1: that problem going away. Um. You know, Anthony Edwards again,
Speaker 1: I really like him, but he's he's probably several years
Speaker 1: away from being a good clutch basketball player. Again, at
Speaker 1: the end of basketball games, like we talked about, teams
Speaker 1: really flash their true identity. So when you get into
Speaker 1: late playoff settings and you're going to answer a really
Speaker 1: good defensive team, and there's a great deal of scouting involved,
Speaker 1: they're gonna find ways to pack the paint on Anthony
Speaker 1: Edwards and really test his decision making as a passer
Speaker 1: and his willingness to settle for pull up jump shots. Now,
Speaker 1: for those of you who remember when we did our
Speaker 1: player rankings video, I had Anthony Edwards pretty high. I
Speaker 1: think I had him twenty one, and his pull up
Speaker 1: shooting was one of the big revelations of that playoff run.
Speaker 1: He shot the ball extremely well off the dribble, but
Speaker 1: he does have a tendency to settle when even when
Speaker 1: he has physical advantages. So again, it's gonna team's packing
Speaker 1: the paint. It's going to test Anthony Edwards in his
Speaker 1: willingness to pass the open shooters and his willingness to
Speaker 1: avoid difficult pull up jump shots. So that's gonna be
Speaker 1: my biggest concern for them. Again, if you're gonna win
Speaker 1: the title is if you're gonna just come out of
Speaker 1: the Western Conference, you're probably gonna have to out execute
Speaker 1: a Steph Curry in a playoff series, You're gonna have
Speaker 1: to out execute and Nicola Yokich in a playoff series.
Speaker 1: You're gonna have to out execute a Kawhi Leonard in
Speaker 1: a playoff series. Hell, if the Lakers figure it out,
Speaker 1: you might have to out execute a Lebron James in
Speaker 1: a playoff series. You might have to do that anyway
Speaker 1: in a first round series. So at the end of
Speaker 1: the day, like decision making is going to be the
Speaker 1: biggest question mark for this particular team on the offensive end,
Speaker 1: so kind of zooming out, I think Google, I think
Speaker 1: Rudy Gobert is legitimately going to mess with their offense.
Speaker 1: I think they'll take a step back on the offensive
Speaker 1: end of the floor, and I do think they'll continue
Speaker 1: to struggle at the end of the game, at the
Speaker 1: end of games. So I expect them to finish somewhere.
Speaker 1: They were seventh and offensive rating this year. I expect
Speaker 1: them to finish somewhere closer to at ten this year.
Speaker 1: Let's move on to the defensive end of the floor. Um,
Speaker 1: last year, like we said, they were an average defense.
Speaker 1: They finished thirteenth. Even when they got hot towards the
Speaker 1: end of the year, it wasn't their defense. It was
Speaker 1: their offense that got going. But again I got we
Speaker 1: have to give Chris Finch a lot of credit here
Speaker 1: because when you really look at what they were working with,
Speaker 1: you know, with Carl Towns, who for his position as
Speaker 1: one of the worst defensive players to play big minutes
Speaker 1: in the league right, and then D'Angelo Russell, who throughout
Speaker 1: his career has been a bad defensive player. He got
Speaker 1: both of them to have the best defensive seasons of
Speaker 1: their career. D'Angelo Russell became a serviceable defensive player, obviously
Speaker 1: not a great defensive player, but a serviceable defensive player.
Speaker 1: And in general, from the roster, from on the roster,
Speaker 1: from the top down, there was a ton of buying,
Speaker 1: especially from their perimeter defenders and their willingness to slide
Speaker 1: their feet and keep people in front. Again, we've talked
Speaker 1: a lot about this concept on the show, but it's
Speaker 1: quickly becoming one of the most important aspects of NBA basketball,
Speaker 1: your ability to contain ball handlers, because think of it
Speaker 1: like this. We think a lot about help schemes, and
Speaker 1: we think a lot about back line defenders and like
Speaker 1: things like defensive rotations, but those things aren't necessary if
Speaker 1: a defender can contain the dribble, if you can contain
Speaker 1: the dribble and prevent ball handlers from getting into the paint,
Speaker 1: then you don't have to offer as much help. You
Speaker 1: don't have to be in rotation as often, and your
Speaker 1: foot speed on the back line matters less. Right, And
Speaker 1: that was a clear identity from this particular team. They
Speaker 1: were a team that sat down in a stance and
Speaker 1: got stops. Malik Beasley did an outstanding job in perimeter contain.
Speaker 1: Patrick Beverley one of the best in the league at
Speaker 1: it Dangel Russell had the best defensive season of his
Speaker 1: career at Anthony Edwards best defensive season of his career there.
Speaker 1: I just wanted to give a shout out to Chris
Speaker 1: Finch there because I think he did a really good
Speaker 1: job with this particular group. Again, this team is going
Speaker 1: to be completely different defensively than they were last year.
Speaker 1: Last year they were average defense because they had great
Speaker 1: perimeter defensive players, but their back line was weak. This year,
Speaker 1: I think they've taken a step back, a significant step
Speaker 1: back in perimeter contain, but they brought on arguably the
Speaker 1: best back line defensive player of this era. Depending on
Speaker 1: who you ask, so at least the top three right,
Speaker 1: so at the top four if you count Draymond. So
Speaker 1: from that standpoint, they're gonna be a very different defense
Speaker 1: than they were in the past. My guess is they
Speaker 1: will prioritize taking away the three point line with their
Speaker 1: perimeter players, knowing that they have a lot more help
Speaker 1: on the back line with Gobert, and probably adapt some
Speaker 1: sort of funneling scheme where the intent is to try
Speaker 1: to just get people to drive into Gobert, get terrified
Speaker 1: because they don't want to get their shot blocked, and
Speaker 1: then kick it out to defenders that are waiting. Um
Speaker 1: that that's typically the way that teams will structure their
Speaker 1: defense when they have outstanding rim protectors, and I expect
Speaker 1: the Timberwolves to do the same. The start of the
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Speaker 1: losing Jared Vanderbilt on the wing is big. I actually
Speaker 1: really like Jaden McDaniels of the hot take, but I
Speaker 1: actually think he could be a little bit better in
Speaker 1: the long run, so I didn't hate that exchange. Austin
Speaker 1: Rivers and Kyle Anderson, like we mentioned earlier, are both
Speaker 1: above average defensive players for their position. They're just not
Speaker 1: as good offensively as the players that they lost. Um
Speaker 1: and then you know the big thing is going to
Speaker 1: be looking at the difference between what this defense is
Speaker 1: gonna look like in the regular season versus the postseason. Like,
Speaker 1: I'll just skip ahead right now. I think the Timberwolves
Speaker 1: are gonna have a top five defense this year. Um.
Speaker 1: That's kind of a staple of the Rudy Gobert process.
Speaker 1: And he's got better defensive players around him than he
Speaker 1: ever had in Utah. So, flat out, I expect the
Speaker 1: Timberwolves to be a top five defense this year, provided
Speaker 1: that everyone stays healthy. The conundrum there is going to
Speaker 1: be the difference between what their defensive ceiling is in
Speaker 1: the regular season versus what it is in the playoffs. Again,
Speaker 1: in the regular season, drop coverages work pretty damn well. Um,
Speaker 1: especially in the day in, day out grind of the
Speaker 1: regular season. It's a it's you know, generally speaking, the
Speaker 1: scouting isn't as in depth as it is in the postseason.
Speaker 1: There's a little bit more of like we're just trying
Speaker 1: to get through this kind of thing, right, And Gobert
Speaker 1: is the kind of guy that it's difficult to scheme
Speaker 1: him away from the rim, but you can do so.
Speaker 1: It's just hard to do in a one game sample side.
Speaker 1: Sometimes it takes three four games to kind of figure
Speaker 1: out how to keep him away from the rim. That's
Speaker 1: why his defensive abilities to clean up messes for his
Speaker 1: teammates goes down in the playoffs compared to the way
Speaker 1: it is in the regular season. So, for instance, having
Speaker 1: a D'Angelo Russell on the floor, having Carl Town's on
Speaker 1: the floor, that those two guys potentially on the floor
Speaker 1: at the same time, losing Patrick Beverley, losing Malik Beasley.
Speaker 1: That might not matter as much in the regular season
Speaker 1: because of Gobert cleaning up messes. But when you get
Speaker 1: to the postseason and teams find out how to keep
Speaker 1: Rudy Gobert closer to the perimeter and make him guard
Speaker 1: more in space, it's not Rudy Gobert loses his value
Speaker 1: as a defender. He's every bit as good defensively in
Speaker 1: the postseason as he is in the regular season, but
Speaker 1: his ability to clean up his teammates messes goes down
Speaker 1: significantly in a playoff setting. And so from that specific standpoint,
Speaker 1: I do think there will be somewhat of a drop
Speaker 1: off when they get into the postseason, because once again,
Speaker 1: you have Carl Towns on the floor, who doesn't guard
Speaker 1: well in space. You have D'Angelo Russell, who's a decent
Speaker 1: help defender but doesn't guard well in space. So in
Speaker 1: a playoffs setting, teams are going to find a way
Speaker 1: to attack those guys while keeping Golbert away from the rim.
Speaker 1: The other thing is transition defense, and this is where
Speaker 1: having two bigs hurts. I don't want to need to
Speaker 1: get all into the weeds again, but you guys know
Speaker 1: how I feel about big men and the limitations they
Speaker 1: have in terms of foot speed. And Carl Towns and
Speaker 1: Rudy Gobert two of the more mobile bigs that we
Speaker 1: have in this league. Theoretically, right, you know, Carl Towns
Speaker 1: isn't very laterally quick, but he does have a good
Speaker 1: first step, and he can beat people off the drib
Speaker 1: on offense, and he can run the floor pretty well. Right,
Speaker 1: But the reality is with both of them on the floor,
Speaker 1: they will be slower footed, especially in the open floor
Speaker 1: and in five out situations than they were last year.
Speaker 1: You know, last year, uh, they were the eighth best
Speaker 1: transition defense in all of basketball. I expect them to
Speaker 1: take a significant step back in transition defense this year
Speaker 1: because of them playing with two big So when you
Speaker 1: factor that in and some of the playoffs stuff. I
Speaker 1: expect them to have a top five regular season defense
Speaker 1: that functions and translates to the postseason, more like a
Speaker 1: tenth best defense in the league type of deal. Again,
Speaker 1: because of the fact that they're gonna have two defenders
Speaker 1: on the floor that teams are going to try to
Speaker 1: attack all the time. What are the interesting counters here
Speaker 1: that I'd like to see them try, especially since I
Speaker 1: have a feeling that they might end up trying to
Speaker 1: trade D'Angelo Russell in the long run, but it might
Speaker 1: be worth benching him, especially in big moments and in
Speaker 1: playoff series, and going all in on with a second wing,
Speaker 1: like going with Jaden McDaniels and Kyle Anderson, or Jaden
Speaker 1: McDaniels and Torrian Prince alongside Cat Gobert and Aunt and
Speaker 1: kind of going in on defense and understanding that, yes,
Speaker 1: you're lacking shot creation, but you know, D'Angelo Russell's shot
Speaker 1: creation didn't translate super well to the postseason anyway. That
Speaker 1: would be what I would do if I was coaching
Speaker 1: this team, and I'd go all in on defense and
Speaker 1: just count on Aunt and Carl Towns to be able
Speaker 1: to physically bludge in the opponent to get enough offense.
Speaker 1: So best case scenario, um, if Anthony Edwards takes a
Speaker 1: leap to superstar and we're gonna get a little bit
Speaker 1: further into that when we get to the X factor.
Speaker 1: If Rudy Gobert finds a way to not completely screw
Speaker 1: up their offense and be somewhat productive there. If Carl
Speaker 1: Town's plays with consistency. If you guys remember when we
Speaker 1: did our power rankings, that's one of my biggest issues
Speaker 1: with Carl Towns is like one night he's dialed in
Speaker 1: and he's focused, and he's making all the right decisions
Speaker 1: and he's punishing teams with physicality the and then the
Speaker 1: next night he's just hacking people and getting infal trouble
Speaker 1: or or just like kind of emotionally pulling away from
Speaker 1: the game and and not being as aggressive physically. And
Speaker 1: it's just he's just kind of like an up and
Speaker 1: down type of personality on the basketball court. If Carl
Speaker 1: Town's plays with consistency, that would be a huge upside
Speaker 1: for them. If the team somehow manages to maintain their
Speaker 1: perimeter defense from last year. That counts on some of
Speaker 1: these younger players like Noel and Uh and McLaughlin coming
Speaker 1: in and playing well, Austin Rivers coming in and playing well,
Speaker 1: Kyle Anderson coming in and playing well. If they do that,
Speaker 1: and they replicate their perimeter defense from last year, in
Speaker 1: combination with what Gobert can do, they could have a
Speaker 1: great defense, a defense that could be problematic in a
Speaker 1: playoff series with their physical mismatches with what Carl Towns
Speaker 1: does and and Anthony Edwards does. In terms of the
Speaker 1: predicament they put you in as the other team and
Speaker 1: who's gonna guard those guys, I think they're capable of
Speaker 1: being anybody in the West except for the Clippers and
Speaker 1: the Warriors. They have the physical matchups to handle those guys.
Speaker 1: Draymond Green would eat Carl Towns alive in a playoff series.
Speaker 1: Andrew Wiggins would give Anthony Edwards some problems, you know
Speaker 1: with the Clippers with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, similar
Speaker 1: type of deal. So from that standpoint, I think, with
Speaker 1: exception of those two particular teams, they are capable if
Speaker 1: they hit their ceiling, of beating any of those teams,
Speaker 1: being a top four seed getting home court advantage in
Speaker 1: the playoffs. It's just I just don't see them beating
Speaker 1: those two particular teams. Their worst case scenario if Gobert
Speaker 1: comes in and just butchers everything on offense, and again,
Speaker 1: they were number one in offense from January three to
Speaker 1: the end of the season. I expect them to take
Speaker 1: a little bit of a step back at least on
Speaker 1: that end. But it could get ugly with Gobert, especially
Speaker 1: with how much Carl Towns and Anthony Edwards like to
Speaker 1: drive the ball to the basket. Um them having two
Speaker 1: bigs if teams find ways to kill them in transition
Speaker 1: or spacing the floor. A really good team like the
Speaker 1: Clippers could put them in a five out situation where
Speaker 1: Carl Town's and Gobert are playing more like perimeter players
Speaker 1: guarding people in a driving kick system. That could be
Speaker 1: a problem. Um. Obviously, we talked about bad late game
Speaker 1: decision making from D'Angelo Russell and Anthony Edwards. Injuries could
Speaker 1: always be an issue. If those things all crop up,
Speaker 1: this is a playing team again, and that would be
Speaker 1: an absolute disaster. With how much they paid for Gobert
Speaker 1: in that trade, the biggest X factor on this team
Speaker 1: in my opinion, without question, is Anthony Edwards. So last
Speaker 1: year he was something like the best player in the world.
Speaker 1: I ranked him twenty one because of what I value
Speaker 1: from him in particular, But that's kind of where I
Speaker 1: see him at this exact moment in time. But he's
Speaker 1: a young player that has a great deal of potential,
Speaker 1: not just a great deal of potential. He's like true
Speaker 1: superstar potential, like top ten player in the world. Potential
Speaker 1: like looka Luca don Che type of player in the
Speaker 1: face and play every bit as good as him, if
Speaker 1: not better in a playoff series type of potential. That's
Speaker 1: what he's capable of. That's what I see from him
Speaker 1: five years from now. So then it becomes about timeline.
Speaker 1: Is it gonna be now? Does he take that leap
Speaker 1: this year, does he take it in two years, does
Speaker 1: he take it in four years? That becomes the question.
Speaker 1: He's built for the playoffs because he's big and strong.
Speaker 1: That's why he's scoring. An efficiency went up when he
Speaker 1: got into that stage. Obviously, he flashed a ton as
Speaker 1: a pull up jump shooter in that playoff run. It
Speaker 1: remains to be seen if that's real or if that
Speaker 1: was just a hot streak. We will find out during
Speaker 1: the season. He gets to the rim a lot that
Speaker 1: translates well to the playoffs and as an athlete, his
Speaker 1: tons of defensive potential. If Anthony Edwards takes a leap
Speaker 1: to become a top ten player in basketball all of
Speaker 1: a sudden, then they're a contender. You know, coming into
Speaker 1: this show, I had them in that tier below as
Speaker 1: non contenders. You know, the Bulls, the Pelicans, you know
Speaker 1: that this particular Wolves team, I didn't see them as
Speaker 1: a team that was capable of winning a championship, and
Speaker 1: I still don't. But if Anthony Edwards is not the
Speaker 1: twenty one best player in the league this year, if
Speaker 1: he's the eighth best player in the league this year,
Speaker 1: then you're damn right there a contender. And that absolutely
Speaker 1: puts them in a situation where they could be a
Speaker 1: dominant defensive team built around Gobert with a super duper
Speaker 1: star and Anthony Edwards that could squeeze out a playoff
Speaker 1: series or win a big matchup against a great superstar
Speaker 1: in this league. And so he is the biggest X
Speaker 1: factor of this team because of his upside. His upside
Speaker 1: is so high that this timber Wolves team is capable
Speaker 1: when he reaches whatever that point is something some point
Speaker 1: in the next couple of years and it's gonna become
Speaker 1: that guy. And when he does, this is gonna be
Speaker 1: a damn good basketball team. And it's always a risk
Speaker 1: that it could be this particular season. Obviously, if he's
Speaker 1: a couple of years away, they could be a playing team.
Speaker 1: They could be a six or seven seed. They could
Speaker 1: lose in the first round, they could lose in the
Speaker 1: second round. But that's the big that's the big swing
Speaker 1: factor in this particular season is how good does Anthony
Speaker 1: Edwards get um? All Right, that is all I have
Speaker 1: for tonight, guys. That's all I have on the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Speaker 1: We'll be back with number thirteen tomorrow. As always, I always,
Speaker 1: I appreciate your guys support and I will see you
Speaker 1: guys in the the volume