Speaker 1: Hello and happy holidays everyone. I'm Pat Fitzmorris, managing editor
Speaker 1: of Betting Pros and Fantasy Pros, and in just a minute,
Speaker 1: I'm going to run through my favorite Week sixteen player prop.
Speaker 1: We went seven to one last week. We are twenty
Speaker 1: two and seven over the past four weeks. That's what
Speaker 1: we call a heater. Boys and girls, We're now sixty
Speaker 1: five and forty on the season. That's a sixty one
Speaker 1: point nine percent winning percentage. I do not want to
Speaker 1: blow my own horn, but enough of that, gambler. The
Speaker 1: god of wagering does not look kindly upon Braggadocio, so
Speaker 1: I'm just going to shut up and get to the
Speaker 1: Week sixteen picks. All odds are courtesy of DraftKings as
Speaker 1: of Thursday afternoon. So let's start with Aaron Rodgers under
Speaker 1: two hundred and fifty one point five passing yards on
Speaker 1: Christmas Day. Rogers is averaging just two hundred and twenty
Speaker 1: point nine passing yards per game this season, and he
Speaker 1: has cleared this number in only two games out of
Speaker 1: fourteen this year. He's averaging six point eight yards per
Speaker 1: pass attempt. That is the second lowest mark in his
Speaker 1: fifteen years as the Packers starter. Yes, Rogers is facing
Speaker 1: a Miami defense that's giving up two hundred and eighty
Speaker 1: eight point four passing yards a game and a league
Speaker 1: high eight point three yards per pass attempt. But even
Speaker 1: with the emergence of rookie wide receiver Christian Watson as
Speaker 1: a playmaker, the Green Bay passing game just simply does
Speaker 1: not have the quick strike capability it used to have
Speaker 1: before they traded Devonte Adams to the Raiders in the offseason.
Speaker 1: So I think this is going to be a leisurely
Speaker 1: paced game. With the Packers ranking thirtieth in offensive pace
Speaker 1: and the Dolphins ranking seventeenth and fewer offensive plays. A
Speaker 1: slower pace means fewer offensive plays than usual, and that's
Speaker 1: a small but important edge for the people betting player props.
Speaker 1: So I would lean towards some of the unders in
Speaker 1: Packers Dolphins because of the pace of play. All Right,
Speaker 1: Andy Dalton under one hundred and fifty one point five
Speaker 1: passing yards. This has very little to do with Andy
Speaker 1: Dalton being a backup caliber quarterback and very little to
Speaker 1: do with the rejuvenated Browns offense, which is actually second
Speaker 1: in DVA against the pass since Week eleven Browns defense
Speaker 1: was getting smoked earlier in the year, but they have
Speaker 1: really tightened things up. This is mostly about weather conditions
Speaker 1: in Cleveland on Saturday, which are going to be ugly
Speaker 1: to say the least. The temperature is going to hover
Speaker 1: around thirteen degrees. They are expecting wins, sustained wins twenty
Speaker 1: five to thirty five miles an hour, gusting up to
Speaker 1: fifty miles an hour. Those are not great passing conditions.
Speaker 1: There's also a chance of snow, by the way, not
Speaker 1: great passing conditions. We're not going to see a lot
Speaker 1: of passing in Saints Brown's because of the fierce wins.
Speaker 1: In fact, I suspect that the Saints are going to
Speaker 1: run a lot of the wildcat with Taysom Hill operating
Speaker 1: at quarterback and mostly running out of that. So I
Speaker 1: wouldn't be surprised if we saw like fewer than twenty,
Speaker 1: maybe even fewer than fifteen passing attempts for Andy Dalton.
Speaker 1: If this passing yardage prop were even twenty yards lower
Speaker 1: at one hundred and thirty one and a half, I
Speaker 1: would still bet the under on it, all right. Josh
Speaker 1: Allen over forty eight point five rushing yards and much
Speaker 1: like the under an eighty Dalton passing yardage, this is
Speaker 1: weather related. Bill's Bears is going to be played in
Speaker 1: some inhospitable weather conditions in Chicago. The forecast eleven degrees
Speaker 1: with wins of twenty to thirty miles per hour. Passing
Speaker 1: conditions suboptimal, and I would expect Alan to do quite
Speaker 1: a bit of running. He runs quite a bit anyway.
Speaker 1: He has topped this number in four of his last
Speaker 1: seven games, and Alan ran for seventy seven yards last
Speaker 1: week in Buffalo in wintery conditions. Those conditions weren't even
Speaker 1: as bad as these conditions are going to be. So
Speaker 1: Allen is also going to be up against a Chicago
Speaker 1: Bears defense that has faced the most rushing attempts by
Speaker 1: opposing quarterbacks this season eighty eight, and has given up
Speaker 1: the eighth most rushing yardage to quarterbacks three hundred and
Speaker 1: thirty one yards. So Josh Allen, I think goes soaring
Speaker 1: over forty eight point five rushing yards. Isaiah Picchecko over
Speaker 1: sixty eight point five rushing yards. Pachecko has topped this
Speaker 1: number in five of his last six games, dating back
Speaker 1: to Week ten. Over that period, he has averaged fifteen
Speaker 1: point eight carries and eighty rushing yards a game. The
Speaker 1: Chiefs rookie running back is going to be facing a
Speaker 1: Seattle defense that has just been getting steamrolled in the
Speaker 1: running game lately. The Seahawks have given up an average
Speaker 1: of two hundred and one point six rushing yards over
Speaker 1: their last five games, allowing no fewer than one hundred
Speaker 1: and sixty one rushing yards in any over that stretch.
Speaker 1: And yes, weather is probably going to be a factor
Speaker 1: here too. It's going to be frigid in Kansas City
Speaker 1: temperatures in the upper teams. I think the Chiefs might
Speaker 1: be a little bit run heavier than usual, which bodes
Speaker 1: well for PA. Check out. All right, I'm going to
Speaker 1: get to the rest of my picks in just a moment,
Speaker 1: but first, do you want to track all of your
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Speaker 1: which picks miss, and it gives you a live look
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Speaker 1: which to fade, get on the leaderboard and quickly become
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Speaker 1: continuing on with more player props, Joe Mixon under sixty
Speaker 1: point five rushing yards. Over the first five games of
Speaker 1: the season, Mixon averaged nineteen point two carries a game.
Speaker 1: He was used in bell Cow type fashion, but over
Speaker 1: the seven games that Mixon has played since, he's averaged
Speaker 1: just twelve point four carries a game. The Bengals are
Speaker 1: using veteran backup samaj p Ryan quite a bit lately.
Speaker 1: He's cutting into Mixon's workload, and Mixon has cleared this
Speaker 1: number in only two of his last six games. He's
Speaker 1: had fewer than twenty eight rushing yards in three of
Speaker 1: his last five. Now, the Bengals face the Patriots, who
Speaker 1: have given up eighty one point two rushing yards per
Speaker 1: game to running backs. That's the seventh lowest total in
Speaker 1: the league. I think Joe Mixon finishes with under sixty
Speaker 1: point five rushing yards. Brian Robinson under forty three point
Speaker 1: five rushing yards. Robinson has actually averaged eighteen point four
Speaker 1: carries in eighty six point six rushing yards over his
Speaker 1: last five games. He's been trending up. So why do
Speaker 1: I like the under here? Well, he's got a Week
Speaker 1: sixteen road game against the forty nine Ers that does
Speaker 1: not set up well for him at all. San Francisco's
Speaker 1: airtight run defense is giving up a league low fifty
Speaker 1: seven point four rushing yards per game and just three
Speaker 1: point three yards per carry to opposing running backs. The
Speaker 1: Commanders are seven point underdogs in this one, so they
Speaker 1: might not have a run friendly game script if in
Speaker 1: fact they do fall behind in this one. Brian Robinson
Speaker 1: under forty three point five rushing yards, Tyler Algier under
Speaker 1: fifty six point five rushing yards. Algierier's yardage total for
Speaker 1: this one is certainly being inflated by his one hundred
Speaker 1: and thirty nine yard rushing day against the Saints last week.
Speaker 1: The rookie from BYU had run for fewer than fifty
Speaker 1: six yards in each of his previous four games before
Speaker 1: the outbreak against the Saints last week, and Algier shares
Speaker 1: rushing duties with cord Erol Patterson. It's a split backfield
Speaker 1: and we're also going to see rookie quarterback Desmond Ritter
Speaker 1: do quite bit of running himself, but this is mainly
Speaker 1: about matchup. The Falcons are facing a vicious Raiders run
Speaker 1: defense this weekend. Yes, the Browns did manage to run
Speaker 1: for one hundred and forty three yards against the Ravens
Speaker 1: last week, but prior to that, in Baltimore's previous six games,
Speaker 1: the Ravens held their opponents under one hundred rushing yards
Speaker 1: every game, and they held their opponents under fifty rushing
Speaker 1: yards in four of those six games. So the Ravens
Speaker 1: run dye is really tough. Tyler Algier finishes with under
Speaker 1: fifty six point five rushing yards. Now here's my favorite
Speaker 1: player prop of the week. Travis Kelcey over seventy five
Speaker 1: point five yards. Yes, this seems like low hanging fruit.
Speaker 1: Kelsey is averaging eighty one point seven receiving yards per
Speaker 1: game this season. He has topped this number in eight
Speaker 1: of fourteen games, and his matchup well, chef's kiss. The
Speaker 1: Seattle defense is giving up. Well, they just gave up
Speaker 1: ninety three receiving yards and two touchdowns to George Kittle
Speaker 1: in Week fourteen, and the Seahawks are giving up sixty
Speaker 1: one point two yards per game and fourteen point five
Speaker 1: yards per catch to tight ends. They just allow so
Speaker 1: many big plays by opposing tight ends. Expect the very
Speaker 1: best tight end in the game to cruise pass this
Speaker 1: insultingly low yardage prop seventy five point five receiving yards.
Speaker 1: Travis Kelsey is going to go soaring over that George
Speaker 1: Kittle under forty four point five receiving yards. Yes, the
Speaker 1: aforementioned George Kittle. He racked up ninety three yards against
Speaker 1: Seattle last week, but he's not facing Seattle this week.
Speaker 1: He is facing Washington, and the Commanders are allowing a
Speaker 1: league low thirty point four receiving yards per game to
Speaker 1: tight ends, and they ranked third in DVA against tight ends.
Speaker 1: Kittle has cleared this number in only two of his
Speaker 1: last seven games. And here's the thing. Commander's edge rusher
Speaker 1: Chase Young is making his twenty twenty two debut, coming
Speaker 1: back from a torn acl That gives the Commanders the
Speaker 1: fierce edge rushing duo of Chase Young and Montese Sweat.
Speaker 1: So I wouldn't be surprised if the forty nine Ers
Speaker 1: asked George Kittle to stay in and block a little
Speaker 1: more than usual. He maybe runs fewer routes than he's
Speaker 1: been running, and that maybe leans helps push him towards
Speaker 1: the under here George Kittle under forty four point five
Speaker 1: rushing yards, and finally, Jalen Wattle over sixty three point
Speaker 1: five receiving yards. Wattle has topped this number sixty three
Speaker 1: and a half in ten of his fourteen games, and
Speaker 1: he's coming off a one hundred and fourteen yard outing
Speaker 1: against the Bills last week. Wattle leads the league in
Speaker 1: yards per catch eighteen point zero yards per catch and
Speaker 1: eleven point one yards per target. He's been uber efficient
Speaker 1: this year, so he might not need that many targets
Speaker 1: to clear this modest number against the Packers. All right,
Speaker 1: Just to recap this week's picks, Aaron Rodgers under two
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty one point five passing yards, Andy Dalton
Speaker 1: under one hundred and fifty one point five passing yards,
Speaker 1: Josh Allen over forty eight point five rushing yards, Isaiah
Speaker 1: Pacheco over sixty eight point five rushing yards, Joe Mixon
Speaker 1: under sixty point five rushing yards, Brian Robinson under forty
Speaker 1: three point five rushing yards, Tyler Algier under fifty six
Speaker 1: point five rushing yards, Travis Kelcey over seventy five point
Speaker 1: five receiving yards, George Kittle under forty four point five
Speaker 1: receiving yards, and Jalen Waddle over sixty three point five
Speaker 1: receiving yards. Happy Holidays to all of you out there,
Speaker 1: from all of us at Betting Pros, hope you have
Speaker 1: a joyous and festive weekend and be careful on those
Speaker 1: snowy roads, my friends. We'll be back again next week
Speaker 1: with more player props. Merry Christmas to all, and to
Speaker 1: all of at night