WEBVTT - Richard Haass, Senior Counselor with Centerview Partners & President Emeritus at Council on Foreign Relations Talks Retaliation From Iran

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>We efforted Richard Haas yesterday we are unable to get him.

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<v Speaker 2>We have him today and we extend out here commercial

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<v Speaker 2>free for you. In a conversation with the President Emeritus,

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<v Speaker 2>the consult Foreign Relations and of course senior counselor was

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<v Speaker 2>sent of you partners with Paul. Far more than that.

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<v Speaker 2>The single best clarity before the attack I put out

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<v Speaker 2>on Twitter and LinkedIn Ambassador Has's essay in the Financial

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<v Speaker 2>Times of It's forever ago. Richard, it was three or

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<v Speaker 2>four days ago, go to Jewel of short clarity of

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<v Speaker 2>what to do, what to hope for? If you wrote

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<v Speaker 2>that essay now, how would you change it?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, good morning, Tom, and thank you. Look, the United

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<v Speaker 3>States based difficult decisions the aftermath of the Israeli actions.

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<v Speaker 3>We chose the path of acting in this case to

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<v Speaker 3>do an intense but idealistically or optimally narrow military strike

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<v Speaker 3>against Iran. What's so interesting to me if I had

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<v Speaker 3>to say one thing at this point, if you think

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<v Speaker 3>about this crisis over the last ten or so days,

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<v Speaker 3>the first week was dominated by israel It deciding in

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<v Speaker 3>the aftermath of October seventh, the weakening of Iran's proxies.

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<v Speaker 3>It was going to act against the Iranian nuclear program

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<v Speaker 3>and more broadly against the Iranian political leadership. Then the

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<v Speaker 3>United States decided this was the moment to set back

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<v Speaker 3>the Iranian nuclear program. But now initiative has passed to

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<v Speaker 3>Iran for the first time in this crisis. It's the

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<v Speaker 3>Iranian leaders who control as much as anybody. How this

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<v Speaker 3>unfolds from this point on. And that's what's different. If

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<v Speaker 3>I were writing today, indeed I will be writing later today.

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<v Speaker 3>That's what's different. For the first time since this phase

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<v Speaker 3>of the crisis began, decision making, if you will, is

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<v Speaker 3>in the hands of Iran more than Israel, more than

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<v Speaker 3>the United States.

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<v Speaker 2>Investador has And I want to make clear here that

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<v Speaker 2>Richard Hass redefined the international relations debate with the invention

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<v Speaker 2>of the Internet. At the Council Unfeigned Relations John Bellinger

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<v Speaker 2>at CFR, Richard Hass writes a blistering essay with his

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<v Speaker 2>legal expertise. Does President Trump have the authority to strike Iran?

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<v Speaker 2>From where you sit with all your work back to

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<v Speaker 2>Northern Ireland? Did the President have the ability to act

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<v Speaker 2>from the executive branch? Or did he need to use

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<v Speaker 2>a different process with Congress.

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<v Speaker 3>Now, the president had the authority, like go all of

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<v Speaker 3>his predecessors. If you look at the history of a

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<v Speaker 3>modern American foreign policy initiative, and foreign policy has decidedly

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<v Speaker 3>passed to the executive I mean, Tom what was it

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<v Speaker 3>sixty years ago? Author Slessiger Junior wrote his essay and

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<v Speaker 3>book about the impurial presidency. This is nothing new. Congress

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<v Speaker 3>virtually never ever fulfills its constitutional obligation to declare war,

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<v Speaker 3>and we have used military force hundreds of times in

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<v Speaker 3>the absence of anything so formal. So I just flat

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<v Speaker 3>out disagree with that kind of a narrow legalist interpretation.

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<v Speaker 3>That said, if I had been advising President Trump, I

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<v Speaker 3>would have said, take a page out of the book

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<v Speaker 3>of President Bush, the father Bush forty one. Do things

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<v Speaker 3>with the internationally, with building on the International Atomic Energy

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<v Speaker 3>Agency Skating report of Iran, Do things with the Congress,

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<v Speaker 3>do things with the American public. If you're going to

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<v Speaker 3>use military force, people should come to conclude that you

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<v Speaker 3>tried to do diplomacy and at the end of the

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<v Speaker 3>day you reluctantly had to use it. But also, by

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<v Speaker 3>the way, would have helped this president with his magabase.

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<v Speaker 3>So I think he should have gone about this differently.

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<v Speaker 3>But did he under American political tradition? Did he yes

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<v Speaker 3>the authority to do what he did?

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<v Speaker 1>Absolutely, Richard. As the world awaits some type of response

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<v Speaker 1>from Morn, do we have any good information as to

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<v Speaker 1>their capabilities today from just their military capabilities and to

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<v Speaker 1>their leadership, because Israel has dealt a blow to their leadership,

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<v Speaker 1>what should we expect?

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<v Speaker 3>No, they're both good points. I actually think they're unlikely

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<v Speaker 3>to retaliate. My reading of the Iranians is they're focused

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<v Speaker 3>on regime survival. In some ways. This is the second

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<v Speaker 3>great difficult period crisis for Iran's leadership since their nineteen

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<v Speaker 3>seventy nine revolution, the first one being a decade later

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<v Speaker 3>during the Iran Iraq War. So my guess is they're

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<v Speaker 3>going to focus on regime consolidation. Down the road, they

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<v Speaker 3>may focus on reconstituting their nuclear program. We have no

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<v Speaker 3>idea how much of their nuclear program is intact, but

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<v Speaker 3>I think it is difficult for the Iranian leadership to act.

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<v Speaker 3>They're trying to stay off the net because they don't

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<v Speaker 3>want to give signols for Americans or Israelis to target them.

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<v Speaker 3>They obviously have lost control over the airspace of their

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<v Speaker 3>own country. Their proxies are much diminished, so I don't

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<v Speaker 3>think they have very good options. That said, they can

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<v Speaker 3>still lob missiles at the forty thousand American soldiers in

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<v Speaker 3>the region. They can play havoc with shipping. It doesn't

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<v Speaker 3>take a lot to drive insurance raids up. They can

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<v Speaker 3>do asymmetrical warfare using cyber or terrorism, so they actually

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<v Speaker 3>have lots of capability. You don't have to compete with

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<v Speaker 3>US be two stealth fighters in order to be militarily effective.

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<v Speaker 3>But I just think the Iranians right now their priority

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<v Speaker 3>in the short run is not to retaliate against the

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<v Speaker 3>United States.

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<v Speaker 2>Richard Hass With this, we continue with Ambassador House Paul Sweene,

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<v Speaker 2>and I welcome all of you across the nation. Are

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<v Speaker 2>continuing that coverage here a difference this morning. The markets

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<v Speaker 2>are open. We will consider the markets across the arc

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<v Speaker 2>of the show. We thank Golder mount a Vali from

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<v Speaker 2>London for being with this. Jimani sent you from Dubai.

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<v Speaker 2>And we continue here on YouTube and all of our

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<v Speaker 2>commute our audio radio affiliates as well, and we say

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<v Speaker 2>good morning.

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<v Speaker 1>Paul, Richard For many observers, the American strike on the

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<v Speaker 1>nuclear facilities in Iran was a bold strike, a surprising strike.

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<v Speaker 1>Does that have an impact in other parts of the world.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm thinking about Ukraine and Russia, thinking about China. How

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<v Speaker 1>do you think those actors are viewing this?

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<v Speaker 3>It was surprising more in the tactical rather than strategic sense.

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<v Speaker 3>We've been talking for years that we weren't going to

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<v Speaker 3>letter on gain nuclear weapons or even get close to them.

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<v Speaker 3>What was surprising, perhaps tactically, was when the President talked

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<v Speaker 3>about is two week last chance for diplomacy to work.

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<v Speaker 3>That turned out to be a faint or a ruse.

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<v Speaker 3>I think it was surprising tactically, not strategically. I think

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<v Speaker 3>the rest of the world took note both that the

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<v Speaker 3>United States acted, as well as how effectively the US

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<v Speaker 3>military looked. What was brought together was criite extraordinary. My

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<v Speaker 3>guess is the Russians probably have liked this crisis. Anytime.

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<v Speaker 3>They like when energy prices go up. They like when

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<v Speaker 3>the United States expends munitions in other parts of the world.

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<v Speaker 3>That means we don't have to give to Ukraine. People

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<v Speaker 3>aren't talking as much about Ukraine. I thought it was

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<v Speaker 3>quite interesting at the G seven that Ukraine almost seemed

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<v Speaker 3>to be something of an afterthought. So the Russians have

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<v Speaker 3>to like that. My guess isn't. The Chinese are probably

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<v Speaker 3>concerned about on the opposite side of the coin, as

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<v Speaker 3>a massive energy importer, they don't much like instability in

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<v Speaker 3>the Middle East, but all of them have to be happy.

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<v Speaker 3>I would think that the United States is once again

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<v Speaker 3>involved in the Middle East. That means we have less bandwidth,

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<v Speaker 3>less ability to focus on say East Asia or Taiwan,

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<v Speaker 3>or on helping Ukraine.

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<v Speaker 2>Richard has with US and folks. I can't say enough

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<v Speaker 2>about This is a book you can throw at your

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<v Speaker 2>smart Alec kids, the college brats. They're home from Oberlin

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<v Speaker 2>and you throw this book at I mean you won't

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<v Speaker 2>because it's beautifully brief. Bill of obligations. I can't say

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<v Speaker 2>enough about Richard Hass's cry for citizenship in America. Again,

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<v Speaker 2>I can't say enough about it. I'll put that out

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<v Speaker 2>on Twitter and LinkedIn as well. Part of our bill

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<v Speaker 2>of obligations, Richard Haass is to have a coherent foreign policy.

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<v Speaker 2>We can go back to Clash of civilizations, staggered a

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<v Speaker 2>Zakaria in a post American world Roberty cap and coming

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<v Speaker 2>up in a bit maybe with a Kissingerian realist theory.

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<v Speaker 2>What's the host theory you observe at the State Department

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<v Speaker 2>Right now?

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<v Speaker 3>The State Department is very little to observe. It's actually

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<v Speaker 3>a sad story over the last decade or two of

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<v Speaker 3>the weakening of an institution, the hollowing out of the

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<v Speaker 3>Foreign Service, more broadly, the hollowing out of our interest

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<v Speaker 3>or capability in terms of diplomacy, in terms of the

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<v Speaker 3>whole mission of the Agency for Internet Development, the whole

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<v Speaker 3>promotion of democracy and American values around the world. We

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<v Speaker 3>have dramatically weakened one of the principal instruments of American

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<v Speaker 3>national security. We've then compounded a top with the hollowing

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<v Speaker 3>out of the National Security Council. This is an administration,

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<v Speaker 3>I would argue that is in some ways it's put

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<v Speaker 3>itself dangerously dependent on a top down approach to foreign policy,

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<v Speaker 3>where the president does things and quite honestly, the rest

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<v Speaker 3>of the administration falls in behind. I don't see an

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<v Speaker 3>awful lot of ground up analysis, but I do worry

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<v Speaker 3>about what's been now more than what decade and a

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<v Speaker 3>half of the weakening of the diplomatic dimension diplatic instrument

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<v Speaker 3>of American foreign policy and national security, Richard.

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<v Speaker 1>Some folks who even discussing probably a small chance, but

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<v Speaker 1>still discussing regime change in a rent How do you

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<v Speaker 1>think about that topic?

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<v Speaker 3>A couple of ways. One is I find regime change

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<v Speaker 3>in the category of wish, not a strategy. If bb Netsignahu,

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<v Speaker 3>the Prime Minister of Israel or Donald Trump said to

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<v Speaker 3>their generals, I want regime change, they wouldn't know how

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<v Speaker 3>to implement it. Regime change is not something you can

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<v Speaker 3>design an operation to bring about. Colin Powell used to say,

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<v Speaker 3>the military military instruments do two things. They destroy and

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<v Speaker 3>they kill. Regime change is not is not on the menu.

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<v Speaker 3>So that's one thing. Second of all, you never know

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<v Speaker 3>if you can bring about you also never know what

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<v Speaker 3>comes of it. You know what would follow this this regime?

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<v Speaker 3>Is it necessarily something that you want? For all? You know,

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<v Speaker 3>nuclear materials, which it clearly still exists in around could

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<v Speaker 3>get into the hands of all sorts of groups that

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<v Speaker 3>might be in the Be careful what you wish for.

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<v Speaker 3>So I take I take regime changes unserrious foreign policy

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<v Speaker 3>if it comes about it's going to come from within Iran.

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<v Speaker 3>It's not going to come, if you will, from Israeli

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<v Speaker 3>or American bayonets.

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<v Speaker 2>Do we underestimate, ambassador, has the military violence of the

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<v Speaker 2>theocracy in Iran? The news flow to me, Ambassador, with

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<v Speaker 2>respect to my colleagues is so simplistic. Iatola theocracy, the

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<v Speaker 2>people of Iran. What's in between them? And the answer

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<v Speaker 2>is a harsh dictatorship.

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<v Speaker 3>Right, You've got that, You've got all sorts of citizen

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<v Speaker 3>groups that are uh listened to them, the so called basis,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, the the guys who used to come out

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<v Speaker 3>with the sticks and beat beat up on the Green

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<v Speaker 3>Movement protesters. And then you've got formal authorities, the military

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<v Speaker 3>and and and so forth. So this is this is

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<v Speaker 3>a regime that has tools, if you will, time of

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<v Speaker 3>repression in addition to what it can do as a

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<v Speaker 3>more traditional military, in addition to its its proxies. But

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<v Speaker 3>this is a this is a system, it's been in

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<v Speaker 3>place now for more than half a century, that has

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<v Speaker 3>instruments of repression and coercion.

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<v Speaker 2>Paul, I remember exactly where it was in the shock

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<v Speaker 2>the hostages. Are you ready a country road in Pittsfield, Vermont,

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<v Speaker 2>and a cold, cold November day walking down the road

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<v Speaker 2>trying not to slip in my two tone Tony Lahma

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<v Speaker 2>cowboy boots, and we were in shock. Is a nation

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<v Speaker 2>over the failed hostage event?

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<v Speaker 1>Yep, absolutely, Richard. Give us the point of view of

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<v Speaker 1>Israel here. A lot of folks are saying this might

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<v Speaker 1>be a special time for Israel to kind of reset

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<v Speaker 1>the Middle East as it takes care of, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>many of what it perceives to be its enemies, including

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<v Speaker 1>obviously a Ran most recently, can Israel change its position

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<v Speaker 1>in the Middle East or the balance of power in

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<v Speaker 1>the Middle East?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I would argue Israel has much improved its strategic position,

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<v Speaker 3>mainly through the weakening of Iran's proxies as Bola first

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<v Speaker 3>and foremost Hamas secondarily, then through regime change what we

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<v Speaker 3>saw in Syria. Israel has improved its position against Iran,

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<v Speaker 3>but hasn't result. By that, I mean Iran remains hostile

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<v Speaker 3>to Israel, has capabilities, and again we don't know how

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<v Speaker 3>much of their nuclear components survived. For all we know

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<v Speaker 3>a lot of them were parked in undisclosed location. So

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<v Speaker 3>Israel is not out of the woods there, and even more,

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<v Speaker 3>Israel's not out of the woods dealing with Gaza or

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<v Speaker 3>with the three million Palestinians in the West Bank. And

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<v Speaker 3>I think that's still the biggest strategic question. So Israel

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<v Speaker 3>has the Iranian dimension and still has the Palestinian dimension

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<v Speaker 3>very much.

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<v Speaker 2>Richard has one final question Paul and I in our

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<v Speaker 2>broadcast yesterday, Paul, please help me. I agree that we

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<v Speaker 2>were thunderstruck by the acuity and concision of our Chairman

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<v Speaker 2>of the Joint chief of Staff. I was blown away

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<v Speaker 2>by his report. Richard Hass you're the grizzled veteran. What

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<v Speaker 2>did you think of the press conference of our Chairman

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<v Speaker 2>of the Joint chiefs of Staff.

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<v Speaker 3>Tom He was impressive. General career of the head of

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<v Speaker 3>Central Command is impressive. Let me just make a larger point.

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<v Speaker 3>When I look at American society, I think there's two

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<v Speaker 3>great pools of talent. One is in the American military.

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<v Speaker 3>The professionalization there is awesome. And the other is something

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<v Speaker 3>you guys you in boll deal with all the time,

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<v Speaker 3>which is the best of American corporate leadership. These are

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<v Speaker 3>people who know how to run big operations and do

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<v Speaker 3>it in a really responsible, accountable way. So I'm not

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<v Speaker 3>surprised when I see great talent in the military rise

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<v Speaker 3>to the top. It is a meritocracy. These people are

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<v Speaker 3>tested and they are responsible for large numbers of lives.

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<v Speaker 3>So I find the post Vietnam American military is quite

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<v Speaker 3>an extraordinary institution.

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<v Speaker 2>Richards, thank you so much. Just send of your partners,

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<v Speaker 2>and of course is definitive work the Council on Foreign

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<v Speaker 2>Relations Ambassador huts Back decades to the diplomacy of a

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<v Speaker 2>Northern Ireland solution