1 00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:04,480 Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast, named vest vetting Podcast. 2 00:00:04,080 --> 00:00:06,320 Speaker 2: Or radio show by the Fantasy. 3 00:00:05,880 --> 00:00:09,160 Speaker 1: Sports and Gaming Association and the number one show for 4 00:00:09,240 --> 00:00:10,760 Speaker 1: the invested sports fan. 5 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:14,800 Speaker 3: All right, here we go. 6 00:00:19,840 --> 00:00:24,400 Speaker 4: Fifteen twenty twenty five, thirty thirty five, forty forty five, fifty. 7 00:00:24,560 --> 00:00:33,320 Speaker 5: Kicks block Look a football World stud Oh my goodness, 8 00:00:33,600 --> 00:00:39,440 Speaker 5: it's stumble the lateral turn a corner of the inside. 9 00:00:39,920 --> 00:00:48,600 Speaker 3: Get you the lad table off the field tonight. It's 10 00:00:48,680 --> 00:00:52,120 Speaker 3: not the sage of the game, it's. 11 00:00:51,880 --> 00:00:53,160 Speaker 6: The sage of the fight. 12 00:00:57,880 --> 00:01:02,840 Speaker 3: What's up, Degenerate Nation, Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. 13 00:01:03,320 --> 00:01:08,720 Speaker 3: This is the College Football National Championship betting preview. I'm 14 00:01:08,760 --> 00:01:13,080 Speaker 3: stuck in with me as always, is Colin Wilson Ready 15 00:01:13,120 --> 00:01:16,520 Speaker 3: to attack this game and close out a great season 16 00:01:16,520 --> 00:01:16,920 Speaker 3: on a high. 17 00:01:16,959 --> 00:01:19,440 Speaker 7: No, yeah, we made it. We made it to the 18 00:01:19,560 --> 00:01:22,840 Speaker 7: very last game. COVID tried to interfere in this game, 19 00:01:22,880 --> 00:01:25,080 Speaker 7: but as of right now, it looks like we're on 20 00:01:25,200 --> 00:01:27,440 Speaker 7: for Monday, and that's great news. 21 00:01:27,520 --> 00:01:27,960 Speaker 3: Here we go. 22 00:01:28,440 --> 00:01:31,360 Speaker 2: If you hate gambling, go listen to NPR. 23 00:01:31,880 --> 00:01:34,720 Speaker 3: Yeah, not to pat ourselves on the back too much, 24 00:01:34,959 --> 00:01:36,680 Speaker 3: but to pat ourselves in the back. We did call 25 00:01:36,760 --> 00:01:39,160 Speaker 3: this as the final We did say and I'm glad 26 00:01:39,160 --> 00:01:41,240 Speaker 3: I didn't want Clempson Alabama again. I was getting sick 27 00:01:41,240 --> 00:01:45,480 Speaker 3: of Clemson Alabama. We both called Ohio State Alabama. We 28 00:01:45,640 --> 00:01:48,880 Speaker 3: both bet on Ohio State to win that game. And 29 00:01:49,560 --> 00:01:51,000 Speaker 3: it's been a hell of a bol season. I think 30 00:01:51,000 --> 00:01:54,400 Speaker 3: of twenty three and seven in bowl season, which is 31 00:01:56,040 --> 00:01:57,440 Speaker 3: you had a lot of breaks to go my way. 32 00:01:57,560 --> 00:01:59,480 Speaker 3: You need some luck to do that, but you're only 33 00:01:59,520 --> 00:02:02,840 Speaker 3: as good as your next bet, and it's all about 34 00:02:03,080 --> 00:02:05,920 Speaker 3: closing out the season with some winners. Whether it's a 35 00:02:05,960 --> 00:02:08,880 Speaker 3: sider total in this game, I've opinion on one of those. 36 00:02:09,080 --> 00:02:12,440 Speaker 3: And props. This is the one time of year where 37 00:02:12,600 --> 00:02:15,880 Speaker 3: I will bet a lot of cost world props. We'll 38 00:02:15,919 --> 00:02:19,240 Speaker 3: have tons of content on props Actionnework dot Com and 39 00:02:19,280 --> 00:02:23,160 Speaker 3: the Action Network app on Monday. We'll talk about them today. 40 00:02:23,200 --> 00:02:26,480 Speaker 3: That the market is not open really yet across the 41 00:02:26,520 --> 00:02:29,119 Speaker 3: board with player props, well, we'll talk about where we're 42 00:02:29,160 --> 00:02:32,840 Speaker 3: looking based on some of our estimated lines there. All right, 43 00:02:32,880 --> 00:02:35,239 Speaker 3: so let's get right into it at bet MGM, the 44 00:02:35,280 --> 00:02:38,640 Speaker 3: official arts provider of the Action Network podcast. Alabama is 45 00:02:38,680 --> 00:02:44,320 Speaker 3: a seven and a half point favorite over under seventy 46 00:02:44,560 --> 00:02:48,360 Speaker 3: four and a half. We'll get to our bets a 47 00:02:48,400 --> 00:02:53,520 Speaker 3: little later. Let's start out with what Alabama has the ball. 48 00:02:54,200 --> 00:02:57,359 Speaker 3: I mean, look, this Ohio State defense has a lot 49 00:02:57,360 --> 00:03:00,720 Speaker 3: of questions, specifically in the secondary. I've just dreamed enough 50 00:03:00,840 --> 00:03:04,240 Speaker 3: about Sean Wade getting first team All American at corner, 51 00:03:04,440 --> 00:03:06,799 Speaker 3: which is just a travesty wrong. I mean, he wasn't 52 00:03:06,800 --> 00:03:08,560 Speaker 3: even the best corner in his state. That was a 53 00:03:08,600 --> 00:03:11,880 Speaker 3: mod gardner at Cincy. He was pretty good last year 54 00:03:11,960 --> 00:03:15,200 Speaker 3: as a nickel corner when he had pros outside and 55 00:03:15,280 --> 00:03:18,200 Speaker 3: Chase Young as a defensive end on the outside, He's 56 00:03:18,240 --> 00:03:23,120 Speaker 3: been pretty pedestrian all year. Same with seven banks on 57 00:03:23,160 --> 00:03:27,160 Speaker 3: the other side. This is a secondary that is extremely vulnerable. 58 00:03:27,400 --> 00:03:30,440 Speaker 3: Last year, with three pros in the secondary, they played 59 00:03:30,480 --> 00:03:33,760 Speaker 3: a lot of press man. This year, they're bailing a lot. 60 00:03:33,840 --> 00:03:36,320 Speaker 3: I mean, they just they know that they don't have 61 00:03:36,400 --> 00:03:39,120 Speaker 3: the corners to really press up and they don't have 62 00:03:39,160 --> 00:03:41,360 Speaker 3: to Chase Young to kind of make up for some 63 00:03:41,440 --> 00:03:45,000 Speaker 3: of those issues and coverage. The defensive line has been 64 00:03:45,600 --> 00:03:49,040 Speaker 3: I would say the strength of this defense very styled 65 00:03:49,120 --> 00:03:52,840 Speaker 3: up front. However, it looks like these are just rumors 66 00:03:52,880 --> 00:03:57,280 Speaker 3: because Ohio State has dealt with COVID issues. Tommy Togi 67 00:03:57,520 --> 00:03:59,400 Speaker 3: I always say his name, arm I'm sorry. Buck On 68 00:03:59,520 --> 00:04:03,720 Speaker 3: Nation an absolute stud, especially in a semi final against 69 00:04:03,760 --> 00:04:06,920 Speaker 3: Clemson and Tyreek Smith. The rumor they're both starters in 70 00:04:06,960 --> 00:04:09,880 Speaker 3: the defensive line, the rumors floating around or that they're 71 00:04:09,920 --> 00:04:12,200 Speaker 3: both going to miss this game. Togi would be a 72 00:04:12,200 --> 00:04:15,160 Speaker 3: big loss up front. It's it at Ohio State defense. 73 00:04:15,320 --> 00:04:17,640 Speaker 3: Did you know the linebackers are solid. Pete Warner is 74 00:04:17,680 --> 00:04:19,760 Speaker 3: going to make a million tackles. Tough Borland to solid 75 00:04:19,760 --> 00:04:22,120 Speaker 3: as well. But this is a vulnerable defense and I'm 76 00:04:22,160 --> 00:04:24,279 Speaker 3: just not sure how they're going to be able to 77 00:04:24,320 --> 00:04:28,120 Speaker 3: slow down this Alabama offense. I don't even know if 78 00:04:28,120 --> 00:04:30,720 Speaker 3: this was last year's Ohio State defense, how they would 79 00:04:30,720 --> 00:04:34,200 Speaker 3: slow down this Alabama offense. I mean, I'm assuming they're 80 00:04:34,240 --> 00:04:37,159 Speaker 3: going to try and drop everyone, keep everything in front 81 00:04:37,160 --> 00:04:39,200 Speaker 3: of them. Maybe that means it's a big day for 82 00:04:39,640 --> 00:04:42,840 Speaker 3: Najie Harris because the Alabama offensive line. Look, when we 83 00:04:43,000 --> 00:04:45,479 Speaker 3: look back at last week, what really happened with Clemson. 84 00:04:45,520 --> 00:04:47,719 Speaker 3: They didn't have their play car, which really hurt their 85 00:04:47,760 --> 00:04:51,960 Speaker 3: offensive line. Got beat a lot by TOGII and company 86 00:04:52,040 --> 00:04:54,840 Speaker 3: up front, and Clemson we talked about this lot. They 87 00:04:54,880 --> 00:04:59,040 Speaker 3: had a pretty average receiving core for Clemson standards, right, 88 00:04:59,040 --> 00:05:02,000 Speaker 3: I mean, they were just play receiving core based on 89 00:05:02,160 --> 00:05:05,280 Speaker 3: what we've seen the past two years, injuries, turnover at 90 00:05:05,279 --> 00:05:08,640 Speaker 3: the position, et cetera. Alabama has none of those problems. 91 00:05:08,920 --> 00:05:11,159 Speaker 3: One of the best offensive lines in college football and 92 00:05:11,320 --> 00:05:13,960 Speaker 3: the best wide receiving group led by a wide receiver 93 00:05:14,560 --> 00:05:16,920 Speaker 3: that won the Hids with Trophy in the Slim Reaper. 94 00:05:17,040 --> 00:05:19,840 Speaker 3: You know, you also have Mechi and there's rumors that 95 00:05:19,920 --> 00:05:23,320 Speaker 3: Waddle might come back. I mean, I just don't know 96 00:05:23,360 --> 00:05:25,800 Speaker 3: what this Ohio State defense could do. It's pick your poison. 97 00:05:25,920 --> 00:05:29,120 Speaker 3: Are you going to try and stop the run? You're 98 00:05:29,120 --> 00:05:31,440 Speaker 3: just gonna get beat deep because this Ohio State, these 99 00:05:31,440 --> 00:05:34,720 Speaker 3: Ohio State corners cannot match up with these Alabama wide receivers. 100 00:05:34,720 --> 00:05:37,000 Speaker 3: I'm just gonna say it flat out right now. They 101 00:05:37,040 --> 00:05:40,279 Speaker 3: can't think they're outside the top one hundred defending past explosiveness. 102 00:05:40,360 --> 00:05:43,800 Speaker 3: That's not good against Alabama. The Alabama offense, there's nothing 103 00:05:43,880 --> 00:05:47,120 Speaker 3: you can say. This is a picture perfect offense, great 104 00:05:47,160 --> 00:05:51,520 Speaker 3: offensive line, great rushing attack, great quarterback, and phenomenal receivers. 105 00:05:52,000 --> 00:05:54,599 Speaker 3: I don't know what you can possibly do to stop 106 00:05:54,680 --> 00:05:58,080 Speaker 3: them other than either keep up or try and keep 107 00:05:58,120 --> 00:06:01,760 Speaker 3: the ball like Notre Name did, but then that's too 108 00:06:01,800 --> 00:06:03,760 Speaker 3: hard to just run the ball up and down the field, 109 00:06:04,160 --> 00:06:06,360 Speaker 3: and then Alabama's gonna get the ball and score. So 110 00:06:07,200 --> 00:06:09,240 Speaker 3: I don't know what Ohio State can do here, especially 111 00:06:09,320 --> 00:06:12,040 Speaker 3: if they have those defensive line injuries. They could have 112 00:06:12,080 --> 00:06:14,039 Speaker 3: more defensive line injuries as the defensive line is dealing 113 00:06:14,080 --> 00:06:18,640 Speaker 3: with COVID. How do you see Ohio State attacking this 114 00:06:19,000 --> 00:06:22,480 Speaker 3: from a defensive perspective? Can they get any stops or 115 00:06:22,720 --> 00:06:25,120 Speaker 3: is this just them as getting to forty plus at 116 00:06:25,120 --> 00:06:26,719 Speaker 3: the minimum and that's that well. 117 00:06:27,240 --> 00:06:28,760 Speaker 7: I mean, I'm going to take a step back a 118 00:06:28,800 --> 00:06:31,680 Speaker 7: little bit before we get into like the actual matchups 119 00:06:31,680 --> 00:06:35,239 Speaker 7: on the field and say that Ryan Day can surprise 120 00:06:35,320 --> 00:06:37,560 Speaker 7: us all. I mean, there's no reason that Ryan Day 121 00:06:38,080 --> 00:06:40,240 Speaker 7: cannot pull this upset off. Do I think it's he's 122 00:06:40,240 --> 00:06:41,160 Speaker 7: going to pull the upset off? 123 00:06:41,279 --> 00:06:41,440 Speaker 3: No. 124 00:06:41,960 --> 00:06:43,680 Speaker 7: But at the same time, let's look at what he's 125 00:06:43,720 --> 00:06:45,440 Speaker 7: done as he's been a head coach. He's twenty three 126 00:06:45,440 --> 00:06:47,720 Speaker 7: and one straight up as a head coach or an 127 00:06:47,720 --> 00:06:51,919 Speaker 7: interim coach. And you know, I just think if people 128 00:06:51,960 --> 00:06:54,120 Speaker 7: look at the advance analytics for Ryan Day a little 129 00:06:54,120 --> 00:06:56,479 Speaker 7: bit more. I made a big stint two years ago 130 00:06:56,480 --> 00:06:59,839 Speaker 7: in our National Championship preview that over a six years 131 00:06:59,839 --> 00:07:02,159 Speaker 7: sp and Clemson was the king of the Middle eight. 132 00:07:02,800 --> 00:07:05,719 Speaker 7: And I think if you're the king of the Middle eight, 133 00:07:06,520 --> 00:07:09,120 Speaker 7: then you are doing a better coaching job than everybody 134 00:07:09,120 --> 00:07:11,400 Speaker 7: else in college football. In the NFL, you know that 135 00:07:11,440 --> 00:07:14,280 Speaker 7: you want to have a possession going into halftime and 136 00:07:14,360 --> 00:07:17,120 Speaker 7: have that possession coming out of halftime. But how many 137 00:07:17,160 --> 00:07:22,160 Speaker 7: of these college coaches can look nflsque by managing the clock. 138 00:07:22,200 --> 00:07:23,720 Speaker 7: There's not a lot of them. I mean, there's a 139 00:07:23,720 --> 00:07:26,240 Speaker 7: lot of bad coaches that do not keep track of 140 00:07:26,240 --> 00:07:29,160 Speaker 7: the clock, don't know how to manage timeouts. College football 141 00:07:29,200 --> 00:07:32,240 Speaker 7: is a completely different world. Ryan Day has been the 142 00:07:32,320 --> 00:07:34,480 Speaker 7: leader in Middle eight since he took over the head 143 00:07:34,480 --> 00:07:37,559 Speaker 7: coaching job at the beginning of twenty nineteen. That tells 144 00:07:37,560 --> 00:07:39,720 Speaker 7: me he knows exactly what he's doing on both sides 145 00:07:39,760 --> 00:07:42,080 Speaker 7: of the ball. And so I'm not just going to 146 00:07:42,120 --> 00:07:45,240 Speaker 7: dismiss Ohio State out. You know, I know the rumors 147 00:07:45,280 --> 00:07:48,560 Speaker 7: about the COVID you know, nineteen going on with their 148 00:07:48,560 --> 00:07:52,080 Speaker 7: defensive line, but I'm not going to dismiss Ryan Day 149 00:07:52,080 --> 00:07:54,800 Speaker 7: in Ohio State out of this. I think what Ryan 150 00:07:54,840 --> 00:07:57,480 Speaker 7: Day is going to do and look at two games 151 00:07:57,480 --> 00:08:01,880 Speaker 7: where Alabama had serious problems and act winning was you know, 152 00:08:02,840 --> 00:08:06,800 Speaker 7: at stake like it was actually a question whether at 153 00:08:06,800 --> 00:08:09,000 Speaker 7: some point Alabama was going to beat Ole Miss. It 154 00:08:09,080 --> 00:08:11,720 Speaker 7: was actually a question if they'll be able to hold 155 00:08:11,760 --> 00:08:14,960 Speaker 7: on against Florida. So as many props as we're gonna 156 00:08:14,960 --> 00:08:17,320 Speaker 7: give the Alabama defense, and they deserve a lot, especially 157 00:08:17,320 --> 00:08:20,480 Speaker 7: in the secondary. We're just a couple of weeks removed 158 00:08:20,520 --> 00:08:22,440 Speaker 7: from Florida being able to put up as many points 159 00:08:22,480 --> 00:08:25,960 Speaker 7: as they wanted. Ole Miss Rush three drop eight did 160 00:08:26,000 --> 00:08:28,680 Speaker 7: the same thing, and you know, both those teams covered 161 00:08:28,680 --> 00:08:30,280 Speaker 7: and I think that that's kind of the game plan 162 00:08:30,640 --> 00:08:32,480 Speaker 7: and if that's what Ryan Day wants to do, this 163 00:08:32,559 --> 00:08:32,920 Speaker 7: numbers go. 164 00:08:33,120 --> 00:08:36,640 Speaker 3: But again you're but again you're talking about Ohio State's offense, 165 00:08:36,640 --> 00:08:38,800 Speaker 3: which we're gonna get to. I thinking that success and 166 00:08:38,840 --> 00:08:42,040 Speaker 3: that's that's the that's the non Notre Dame game plan. 167 00:08:42,160 --> 00:08:44,679 Speaker 3: That's it, the old mess. The Florida game plan is 168 00:08:45,200 --> 00:08:50,120 Speaker 3: keep up, match them, master the middle eight, steal a possession, 169 00:08:50,200 --> 00:08:52,440 Speaker 3: hold them to a field goal somewhere, and win in 170 00:08:52,440 --> 00:08:53,679 Speaker 3: the win a game in the forties. 171 00:08:54,000 --> 00:08:57,040 Speaker 7: Yeah, and we'll get into it later. The key stat 172 00:08:57,080 --> 00:08:59,960 Speaker 7: for this national championship, and there's gonna be a full 173 00:09:00,120 --> 00:09:04,360 Speaker 7: right up on action I believe, seven thousand words. Unless 174 00:09:04,360 --> 00:09:06,320 Speaker 7: our wonderful editors chopped into it a little bit. I 175 00:09:06,400 --> 00:09:07,719 Speaker 7: might have the acted a little bit too much in 176 00:09:07,800 --> 00:09:10,840 Speaker 7: some of the sections. But the key stat in this 177 00:09:11,040 --> 00:09:14,439 Speaker 7: is called momentum killer rate, and it's a stat that 178 00:09:14,480 --> 00:09:17,280 Speaker 7: we don't use very frequently, and we probably should integrate 179 00:09:17,320 --> 00:09:18,719 Speaker 7: it just a little bit more. It's a little bit 180 00:09:18,720 --> 00:09:21,760 Speaker 7: harder to drive. But a momentum killer rate is the 181 00:09:21,800 --> 00:09:27,800 Speaker 7: combination of interceptions, fumbles, miss field goals, sacks, turnovers on downs, 182 00:09:28,200 --> 00:09:31,760 Speaker 7: and ten plus yard penalties. And what it really stands 183 00:09:31,800 --> 00:09:37,000 Speaker 7: for is how how well is your offense humming? Do 184 00:09:37,040 --> 00:09:39,960 Speaker 7: they stop themselves, do they take themselves out of drives? 185 00:09:40,160 --> 00:09:41,920 Speaker 7: Do they get points up on the board? Does it 186 00:09:41,960 --> 00:09:44,640 Speaker 7: not matter what their field position is? And because we've 187 00:09:44,679 --> 00:09:47,839 Speaker 7: seen this amazing trend with Alabama this year against Old 188 00:09:47,880 --> 00:09:50,679 Speaker 7: Miss over ninety percent of available yards, it's one of 189 00:09:50,760 --> 00:09:52,440 Speaker 7: the I don't I think it has to be an 190 00:09:52,480 --> 00:09:54,240 Speaker 7: all time record. I mean, I'll spend the off season 191 00:09:54,320 --> 00:09:57,000 Speaker 7: looking at it. But when the national average of available 192 00:09:57,080 --> 00:09:59,840 Speaker 7: yards is forty four percent and Alabama puts up ninety 193 00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:02,640 Speaker 7: in most of the games, they put up sixty. I mean 194 00:10:02,640 --> 00:10:05,079 Speaker 7: Ohio State put up sixty two percent against Clemson. To 195 00:10:05,080 --> 00:10:07,760 Speaker 7: give you an idea about available yards, this game comes 196 00:10:07,800 --> 00:10:12,520 Speaker 7: down to momentum killer rate. Which offense will not take 197 00:10:12,559 --> 00:10:15,800 Speaker 7: themselves off the field. Which offense will get points up 198 00:10:15,840 --> 00:10:18,480 Speaker 7: on the board every single time, and if you trip up, 199 00:10:19,160 --> 00:10:20,240 Speaker 7: it could cost you the game. 200 00:10:20,920 --> 00:10:23,719 Speaker 3: I agree. I mean I I'll just say it right now. 201 00:10:23,800 --> 00:10:27,840 Speaker 3: I make the total. I make the total seventy nine. 202 00:10:28,440 --> 00:10:30,559 Speaker 3: So I played some over seventy four and a half. 203 00:10:30,920 --> 00:10:33,280 Speaker 3: I think that is going to be Ohio o High 204 00:10:33,360 --> 00:10:35,120 Speaker 3: State is going to have to keep up. I think 205 00:10:35,120 --> 00:10:37,199 Speaker 3: they can. We'll get into their offense next. I think 206 00:10:37,200 --> 00:10:39,440 Speaker 3: it's going to be a shootout. I make OHI I 207 00:10:39,480 --> 00:10:43,120 Speaker 3: make Alabama close to I think like six six and 208 00:10:43,120 --> 00:10:45,400 Speaker 3: a half point favorite. So I see a tad bit 209 00:10:45,440 --> 00:10:48,800 Speaker 3: of value in Ohio State. But I really like this 210 00:10:48,880 --> 00:10:52,040 Speaker 3: over and I think Ohio State knows that their defense 211 00:10:52,559 --> 00:10:55,160 Speaker 3: is not going to get many stops and I don't 212 00:10:55,200 --> 00:10:58,199 Speaker 3: see any way that they really can get many stops here, 213 00:10:58,360 --> 00:10:59,679 Speaker 3: which means that their office is going to have to 214 00:10:59,840 --> 00:11:01,640 Speaker 3: keep but which means that they're going to have to 215 00:11:01,679 --> 00:11:04,280 Speaker 3: call an aggressive game plan as well, which means they're 216 00:11:04,280 --> 00:11:06,600 Speaker 3: going to go for a n four downs when presented 217 00:11:06,640 --> 00:11:10,520 Speaker 3: with those opportunities. So I know this total is so 218 00:11:10,640 --> 00:11:13,200 Speaker 3: high for a national championship, and a lot can go 219 00:11:13,240 --> 00:11:15,800 Speaker 3: wrong with an over seventy four and a half, but 220 00:11:16,080 --> 00:11:17,880 Speaker 3: I see value in it. And before we get to 221 00:11:18,000 --> 00:11:20,600 Speaker 3: Ohio State on offense, which I think is the more 222 00:11:20,640 --> 00:11:25,120 Speaker 3: intriguing handicap here, you don't see any way that Ohio 223 00:11:25,200 --> 00:11:28,000 Speaker 3: State can really get too many stops here. There's not like, hey, 224 00:11:28,040 --> 00:11:30,640 Speaker 3: this is an advantage that they can exploit, like I 225 00:11:30,720 --> 00:11:33,559 Speaker 3: like that they have. They started using Procter at the 226 00:11:33,600 --> 00:11:36,920 Speaker 3: single high safety last game, which I think was smart, 227 00:11:37,000 --> 00:11:39,079 Speaker 3: but they just don't have the corners here that can 228 00:11:39,120 --> 00:11:41,000 Speaker 3: match up, and I don't see any way they can 229 00:11:41,000 --> 00:11:41,440 Speaker 3: get stops. 230 00:11:41,440 --> 00:11:43,600 Speaker 7: You grey, well, if this game is going to go 231 00:11:43,679 --> 00:11:47,320 Speaker 7: under and full transparency after you know, all the box 232 00:11:47,360 --> 00:11:50,360 Speaker 7: score information came in, my projection for the game went 233 00:11:50,400 --> 00:11:52,319 Speaker 7: to seventy two from seventy one and a half to 234 00:11:52,360 --> 00:11:55,200 Speaker 7: seventy two, and so I wouldn't take an under on 235 00:11:55,280 --> 00:11:57,800 Speaker 7: this game for my life. And if it hits under, great, 236 00:11:57,840 --> 00:11:59,839 Speaker 7: but I'm not gonna get invested in an under with 237 00:12:00,200 --> 00:12:04,160 Speaker 7: these two offenses, and you know, we really the only 238 00:12:04,200 --> 00:12:06,480 Speaker 7: way that I think that this game goes under barring 239 00:12:07,080 --> 00:12:11,040 Speaker 7: barring injuries, right, barring like a Mac Jones injury or something, 240 00:12:11,120 --> 00:12:13,599 Speaker 7: you know, justin Field's injury. If the game plan that 241 00:12:13,679 --> 00:12:16,080 Speaker 7: Alabama used against Notre Dame, which I don't think they're 242 00:12:16,120 --> 00:12:18,480 Speaker 7: going to use that, and I think they use that 243 00:12:18,520 --> 00:12:22,000 Speaker 7: against Notre Dame because they're all American. Center Landon Dickerson 244 00:12:22,080 --> 00:12:24,440 Speaker 7: was out, So we should start there with the Alabama 245 00:12:24,520 --> 00:12:26,800 Speaker 7: has the ball cap is their center was out and 246 00:12:26,840 --> 00:12:30,240 Speaker 7: they backfilled with a senior, Chris Owens, who is just 247 00:12:30,360 --> 00:12:34,079 Speaker 7: not a very successful offensive lineman. And the way that 248 00:12:34,720 --> 00:12:39,360 Speaker 7: Sark was able to get around that was to have 249 00:12:39,480 --> 00:12:41,720 Speaker 7: Mac Jones get rid of the ball as fast as possible. 250 00:12:42,000 --> 00:12:44,640 Speaker 7: Twenty three passing attempts behind the line of scrimmage against 251 00:12:44,679 --> 00:12:48,240 Speaker 7: Notre Dame. Twenty three passing attempts between one and ten yards. 252 00:12:48,640 --> 00:12:52,320 Speaker 7: They had just six passing attempts over twenty yards. The 253 00:12:52,440 --> 00:12:55,720 Speaker 7: Alabama offense only threw it twenty yards six times. 254 00:12:55,920 --> 00:12:57,640 Speaker 5: And I'm gonna tell you what if I had a 255 00:12:57,640 --> 00:13:00,280 Speaker 5: barometer up yards to say whether you were given effort 256 00:13:00,360 --> 00:13:02,199 Speaker 5: or not, it was about fifty percent. 257 00:13:02,440 --> 00:13:03,680 Speaker 3: Why did you push yourself? 258 00:13:03,880 --> 00:13:05,960 Speaker 7: And I think it was all by design because of 259 00:13:06,000 --> 00:13:09,080 Speaker 7: their center who you know to Chris Owens, you know, 260 00:13:09,400 --> 00:13:12,480 Speaker 7: and he's been a backup his entire career. But he 261 00:13:12,520 --> 00:13:15,000 Speaker 7: also has posted he posted in the game the worst 262 00:13:15,080 --> 00:13:17,520 Speaker 7: run blocking and the worst pass blocking of any of 263 00:13:17,559 --> 00:13:20,520 Speaker 7: the linemen. And that's just the way that he's been. 264 00:13:20,559 --> 00:13:22,679 Speaker 7: He's had six hundred career snaps in his four year 265 00:13:22,720 --> 00:13:25,760 Speaker 7: career and he's allowed more pressure than any other offensive 266 00:13:25,760 --> 00:13:26,840 Speaker 7: lineman on the season. 267 00:13:27,000 --> 00:13:28,240 Speaker 3: Why did you push yourself? 268 00:13:28,520 --> 00:13:31,480 Speaker 7: So we talk about Ohio State having the COVID on 269 00:13:31,520 --> 00:13:33,720 Speaker 7: the defensive line, and maybe that is a strength, but 270 00:13:34,320 --> 00:13:38,480 Speaker 7: what does it matter when mac Jones's efficiency is just 271 00:13:38,559 --> 00:13:41,880 Speaker 7: as good, is just as good throwing between one and 272 00:13:42,120 --> 00:13:44,560 Speaker 7: one point two seconds as it is between two and 273 00:13:44,600 --> 00:13:47,320 Speaker 7: two and a half seconds, because it is, his NFL 274 00:13:47,440 --> 00:13:49,800 Speaker 7: rating is insane. I can't get this through enough with 275 00:13:49,800 --> 00:13:51,480 Speaker 7: mac Jones. If I had a Heisman vote, I would 276 00:13:51,480 --> 00:13:54,559 Speaker 7: have voted for mac Jones. That he's He's as cool 277 00:13:54,600 --> 00:13:57,840 Speaker 7: as can be in a pocket, a heavy pocket being pressured. 278 00:13:57,920 --> 00:13:59,880 Speaker 7: It does not matter if you get pressure on mac Jones. 279 00:14:00,040 --> 00:14:02,280 Speaker 7: He gets rid of the ball, the pass is just 280 00:14:02,320 --> 00:14:04,880 Speaker 7: as clean as if it was a clean pocket. Again, 281 00:14:05,040 --> 00:14:07,240 Speaker 7: what is this is going to go under? If they 282 00:14:07,280 --> 00:14:10,680 Speaker 7: decide to do the short game. And I will say, 283 00:14:10,760 --> 00:14:13,160 Speaker 7: you know, if you look at the splits, Mac Jones' 284 00:14:13,160 --> 00:14:17,960 Speaker 7: favorite targets left outside receiver, right outside receiver. But most 285 00:14:18,000 --> 00:14:20,120 Speaker 7: of those are downfield and not what they did against 286 00:14:20,160 --> 00:14:22,600 Speaker 7: Notre Dame, the short stuff behind the line of scrimmage. 287 00:14:22,880 --> 00:14:25,680 Speaker 7: I don't see that happening. You have to recognize the 288 00:14:25,760 --> 00:14:29,720 Speaker 7: fact that Ohio State's weakness is in their secondary. And 289 00:14:29,800 --> 00:14:31,560 Speaker 7: if Sean Wade wants to go man to man with 290 00:14:31,600 --> 00:14:35,480 Speaker 7: DeVonta Smith, you know, God be with you, that's going 291 00:14:35,520 --> 00:14:38,120 Speaker 7: to be a struggle. But you know, some of these 292 00:14:38,400 --> 00:14:41,560 Speaker 7: the secondary for Ohio State, I can't see them keeping 293 00:14:41,640 --> 00:14:44,200 Speaker 7: up with Alabama at all. I think the game plan 294 00:14:44,240 --> 00:14:46,120 Speaker 7: that they put in against Notre Dame is the exact 295 00:14:46,160 --> 00:14:48,880 Speaker 7: opposite of what they're going to put in here. It 296 00:14:48,920 --> 00:14:50,760 Speaker 7: doesn't matter if you blitz them. I know they run 297 00:14:50,800 --> 00:14:53,240 Speaker 7: a four to three. I know Ohio State can get pressure. 298 00:14:53,280 --> 00:14:55,880 Speaker 7: I know their defensive line looks so good, but I 299 00:14:55,880 --> 00:14:58,400 Speaker 7: don't think Najee Harris is running in the a gaps 300 00:14:58,480 --> 00:15:00,960 Speaker 7: around the center around Chris Owens. I don't think Alabama 301 00:15:01,040 --> 00:15:03,400 Speaker 7: runs any plays in between the guards and in between 302 00:15:03,440 --> 00:15:06,400 Speaker 7: the tackles because of Chris Owens. And I think we 303 00:15:06,440 --> 00:15:08,880 Speaker 7: will continue to see Mac Jones on a quick release 304 00:15:09,440 --> 00:15:11,240 Speaker 7: or if it's a two second release, then it's going 305 00:15:11,320 --> 00:15:15,480 Speaker 7: to come twenty yards down the field attacking. You know, Josh, Joe, 306 00:15:16,160 --> 00:15:19,520 Speaker 7: Sean Wade, you know a lot of the guys in 307 00:15:19,560 --> 00:15:20,720 Speaker 7: the Ohio State secondary. 308 00:15:20,960 --> 00:15:24,000 Speaker 3: Yeah, we're so Davante Smith. I'll be curious to say 309 00:15:24,040 --> 00:15:27,400 Speaker 3: if they do let Sewan Wade just shadow Davante Smith, 310 00:15:27,600 --> 00:15:30,280 Speaker 3: because I hope line up in the slot a lot. 311 00:15:30,720 --> 00:15:32,520 Speaker 3: I think that. I mean, at least Wade is more 312 00:15:32,560 --> 00:15:34,280 Speaker 3: comfortable there. But if Wade's going to try and play 313 00:15:34,320 --> 00:15:36,960 Speaker 3: one on one all day against Davonte Smith, I think 314 00:15:36,960 --> 00:15:38,560 Speaker 3: that's a nightmare. I think that they're gonna have to 315 00:15:38,640 --> 00:15:41,360 Speaker 3: just they're gonna have to give him safety help. But 316 00:15:41,440 --> 00:15:43,480 Speaker 3: I think that's going to open it up for this. 317 00:15:44,400 --> 00:15:46,680 Speaker 3: We'll talk about this maybe in our props. This might 318 00:15:46,720 --> 00:15:51,600 Speaker 3: open up the field for other receivers Mechi and potentially Waddle. 319 00:15:51,760 --> 00:15:54,040 Speaker 3: Any intel on what you think there is that a bluff? 320 00:15:54,320 --> 00:15:56,080 Speaker 3: Not only I think he'd be worth but people are 321 00:15:56,080 --> 00:15:58,080 Speaker 3: always like, oh wat I can come back and look 322 00:15:58,120 --> 00:16:01,560 Speaker 3: Wattell is a great player, spectacle and spectacular returner, but 323 00:16:01,560 --> 00:16:03,400 Speaker 3: he's still a receiver. Like to me, it would be 324 00:16:03,440 --> 00:16:05,920 Speaker 3: worth like a half a point, but just having another 325 00:16:06,000 --> 00:16:08,400 Speaker 3: explosive weapon out there, so I punt returns. I don't 326 00:16:08,400 --> 00:16:10,400 Speaker 3: know how many punts we'll see. But what do you 327 00:16:10,440 --> 00:16:13,440 Speaker 3: see there with hold Smith's gonna line up? What you 328 00:16:13,480 --> 00:16:15,720 Speaker 3: expect there? And then thoughts on Waddle. 329 00:16:15,680 --> 00:16:18,720 Speaker 7: Yeah, Davonta Smith figuring out where he's gonna line up 330 00:16:18,760 --> 00:16:21,880 Speaker 7: is gonna be rough because PFF had him as a 331 00:16:21,920 --> 00:16:25,840 Speaker 7: starter most of his throughout the half of the season 332 00:16:26,360 --> 00:16:28,800 Speaker 7: he was in the left slot, and then the last 333 00:16:28,880 --> 00:16:31,920 Speaker 7: four games he lined up and outside left outside wide receiver. 334 00:16:32,360 --> 00:16:35,400 Speaker 7: But if you watch him on game film, he's everywhere, 335 00:16:36,400 --> 00:16:38,960 Speaker 7: so you know that it's tough to say where he's 336 00:16:39,000 --> 00:16:40,800 Speaker 7: going to line up. But if they're shocking, they motion 337 00:16:40,880 --> 00:16:44,840 Speaker 7: them all over. It's impossible to sit there and say, well, 338 00:16:44,840 --> 00:16:46,160 Speaker 7: they're going to kill him out of the slot with 339 00:16:46,200 --> 00:16:49,280 Speaker 7: Devonte Smith because DeVante Smith is everywhere. But you bring 340 00:16:49,360 --> 00:16:52,720 Speaker 7: up a great point. I think Jalen Wattle is a 341 00:16:52,920 --> 00:16:58,600 Speaker 7: fantastic betting opportunity for us and props not on Waddle himself, 342 00:16:59,000 --> 00:17:01,840 Speaker 7: because what Jalen Mottle presents and Alabama's playing this. 343 00:17:01,880 --> 00:17:04,840 Speaker 3: Perfectly, he's gonna have to take up. He's gonna take 344 00:17:04,880 --> 00:17:05,719 Speaker 3: proper yardage up. 345 00:17:06,000 --> 00:17:09,560 Speaker 7: Ye, yes, yes, Not only is he gonna take proper 346 00:17:09,600 --> 00:17:12,400 Speaker 7: yardage off of some of the other guys, but this 347 00:17:12,600 --> 00:17:14,800 Speaker 7: could be a stone cold bluff as a guy that 348 00:17:14,880 --> 00:17:17,520 Speaker 7: got to play pandemic poker with guys that have actually 349 00:17:17,560 --> 00:17:21,200 Speaker 7: won the World Series of Poker. This is Saban sitting 350 00:17:21,200 --> 00:17:23,760 Speaker 7: at the final table saying, you know, I have Jalen 351 00:17:23,800 --> 00:17:26,439 Speaker 7: Wattele in my hand right, so you're gonna have to 352 00:17:26,480 --> 00:17:29,760 Speaker 7: respect what I have and what I think is gonna 353 00:17:29,760 --> 00:17:32,119 Speaker 7: happen here is not only is the DeVonta Smith and 354 00:17:32,160 --> 00:17:34,000 Speaker 7: the Mechi totals are gonna come down. You know who 355 00:17:34,040 --> 00:17:37,000 Speaker 7: else is gonna come down? The tight end totals. And 356 00:17:37,080 --> 00:17:40,040 Speaker 7: that's where we need to focus because Sark has doubled 357 00:17:40,080 --> 00:17:43,800 Speaker 7: his play calling in twelve. He loves his tight ends. 358 00:17:43,840 --> 00:17:47,400 Speaker 7: That'd be Jalttle Billingsley, that would be Miller forrestal. Now 359 00:17:47,440 --> 00:17:49,439 Speaker 7: there are some stats on those two tight ends that 360 00:17:49,480 --> 00:17:51,879 Speaker 7: people just need to start recognized because they have gotten hot. 361 00:17:52,000 --> 00:17:55,960 Speaker 7: Billingsley has caught every single target his way, all fifteen 362 00:17:56,000 --> 00:17:59,040 Speaker 7: of them since Week eight. Since the Tennessee game, he 363 00:17:59,080 --> 00:18:01,600 Speaker 7: only he only missed one target. It was overthrown. It 364 00:18:01,640 --> 00:18:04,120 Speaker 7: wasn't his fault. And if you look at Miller Forestall, 365 00:18:04,280 --> 00:18:06,600 Speaker 7: half of his targets have come in the last three games. 366 00:18:06,840 --> 00:18:11,920 Speaker 7: Forestall is so efficient for any Alabama quarterback. He has 367 00:18:11,960 --> 00:18:15,199 Speaker 7: not recorded a drop since Texas A and M in 368 00:18:15,280 --> 00:18:20,119 Speaker 7: twenty sixteen. These two tight ends are going to get 369 00:18:20,160 --> 00:18:23,880 Speaker 7: an amazing amount of looks in third down situations, in 370 00:18:23,960 --> 00:18:27,879 Speaker 7: play action, Waddle's on the field, DeVonta Smith gets a 371 00:18:27,880 --> 00:18:30,880 Speaker 7: lot of attention. These tight ends are a huge part 372 00:18:30,880 --> 00:18:33,119 Speaker 7: of Sarks play calling these days. I mean it's up 373 00:18:33,119 --> 00:18:35,359 Speaker 7: to like forty five percent of play calls are in twelve. 374 00:18:36,000 --> 00:18:39,439 Speaker 7: So I think what Waddle does is he presents a 375 00:18:39,480 --> 00:18:43,879 Speaker 7: great proper opportunity for us on the other weapons. 376 00:18:45,400 --> 00:18:49,240 Speaker 3: Couldn't agree more, all right, So I think our consensus 377 00:18:49,480 --> 00:18:53,560 Speaker 3: is there's some prop opportunities at Alabama. Alabama's going to score. 378 00:18:53,840 --> 00:18:56,520 Speaker 3: There's nothing really Ohio State can do. It's still a 379 00:18:56,560 --> 00:18:59,879 Speaker 3: football game. It's one football game. Albaba could just have 380 00:19:00,080 --> 00:19:02,480 Speaker 3: an off night and they maybe put up thirty thirty five. 381 00:19:02,680 --> 00:19:05,240 Speaker 3: There could be fluke turnovers, there could be injuries, but 382 00:19:05,280 --> 00:19:07,239 Speaker 3: for the most part, you play this game ninety out 383 00:19:07,240 --> 00:19:09,800 Speaker 3: of one hundred times, there's nothing Ohio State can really 384 00:19:09,840 --> 00:19:12,919 Speaker 3: do from a defensive perspective to slow down Alabama. So 385 00:19:13,280 --> 00:19:16,879 Speaker 3: the question then becomes, this will I think ultimately decide 386 00:19:16,920 --> 00:19:20,280 Speaker 3: to spread and the total is ken Ohio State keep up. 387 00:19:20,359 --> 00:19:22,560 Speaker 3: So we look at their offense. The first question we'll 388 00:19:22,760 --> 00:19:26,480 Speaker 3: start with, Well, first, let me put the offensive line 389 00:19:26,520 --> 00:19:28,639 Speaker 3: for a host. It doesn't get enough credit. I mean, 390 00:19:28,680 --> 00:19:30,960 Speaker 3: this is an e lead offense. This is this offense 391 00:19:31,040 --> 00:19:35,119 Speaker 3: is unbelievable. It's the play calling is obviously spectacular. You 392 00:19:35,119 --> 00:19:37,639 Speaker 3: have a great NFL quarterback who could go in the 393 00:19:37,680 --> 00:19:41,920 Speaker 3: top three in the NFL draft adjusted fields. The offensive 394 00:19:41,920 --> 00:19:43,600 Speaker 3: line has just been so good across the board if 395 00:19:43,600 --> 00:19:45,719 Speaker 3: you look at pretty much every advanced metric, and then 396 00:19:45,760 --> 00:19:48,440 Speaker 3: you have Tray Sermon who's just running like a madman, 397 00:19:48,480 --> 00:19:51,280 Speaker 3: who's come on as a running back that's just tearing 398 00:19:51,359 --> 00:19:53,959 Speaker 3: up opposing defenses. And then you just have weapons galore 399 00:19:54,320 --> 00:19:58,520 Speaker 3: outside with a Lave and Wilson, a couple of young 400 00:19:58,520 --> 00:20:01,439 Speaker 3: guys who have really come on so this is an 401 00:20:01,560 --> 00:20:08,080 Speaker 3: extremely explosive and efficient offense. And Alabama, if you look 402 00:20:08,080 --> 00:20:11,600 Speaker 3: at some of their numbers there you can throw on 403 00:20:11,640 --> 00:20:14,560 Speaker 3: them at times this year and some they're vulnerable to 404 00:20:14,640 --> 00:20:17,480 Speaker 3: explosive passes, which I think Ohio State could potentially exploit. 405 00:20:18,160 --> 00:20:22,000 Speaker 3: Alabama generally, and look Alabama. The one stat that sticks 406 00:20:22,000 --> 00:20:26,080 Speaker 3: out for Ohio State is their sack rate is bad, 407 00:20:26,280 --> 00:20:29,080 Speaker 3: but that's mainly just because Fields holds the ball a 408 00:20:29,080 --> 00:20:32,359 Speaker 3: little too long at times. But Alabama is not. They 409 00:20:32,400 --> 00:20:36,639 Speaker 3: don't have an elite pass rush this year. This is 410 00:20:36,640 --> 00:20:38,200 Speaker 3: not a team that's going to kill you off the 411 00:20:38,320 --> 00:20:43,000 Speaker 3: edge with dominant pass rushers. And they're they're passing down 412 00:20:43,000 --> 00:20:45,040 Speaker 3: sackerd I think they're outside the top fifty in that department, 413 00:20:46,000 --> 00:20:48,080 Speaker 3: So Field might take a couple of saxes he's holding 414 00:20:48,080 --> 00:20:51,399 Speaker 3: on the ball too long. But Alabama's defense, generally speaking, 415 00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:53,920 Speaker 3: they play a lot of man on the outside too deep. 416 00:20:54,560 --> 00:20:57,080 Speaker 3: They have an excellent corner and certain they have talented 417 00:20:57,080 --> 00:21:00,159 Speaker 3: linebackers led by Moses and a stout defensive line, but 418 00:21:00,320 --> 00:21:02,400 Speaker 3: they're not going to kill you from a pass rush perspective. 419 00:21:03,440 --> 00:21:07,840 Speaker 3: But the question here and historically teams that spread out 420 00:21:07,880 --> 00:21:11,560 Speaker 3: Bama and go tempo with a mobile quarterback. That's how 421 00:21:11,560 --> 00:21:14,960 Speaker 3: you're gonna give Alabama's defense problems. Ohio State can check 422 00:21:15,000 --> 00:21:19,000 Speaker 3: all those boxes assuming Fields is healthy, which from everything 423 00:21:19,040 --> 00:21:21,680 Speaker 3: I've read, he's good to go. And what I mean 424 00:21:21,680 --> 00:21:24,359 Speaker 3: by healthy is not necessarily that he's just gonna play, 425 00:21:24,400 --> 00:21:25,840 Speaker 3: But I mean, this is the future enough a quarterback. 426 00:21:25,880 --> 00:21:27,760 Speaker 3: Is he gonna be willing to run it? And then 427 00:21:27,800 --> 00:21:30,720 Speaker 3: also is he at risk of going out of the 428 00:21:30,720 --> 00:21:31,520 Speaker 3: game at any point? Yeah? 429 00:21:31,600 --> 00:21:33,440 Speaker 7: Is he gonna take a Skowski? Right? Is he gonna 430 00:21:33,440 --> 00:21:34,720 Speaker 7: take a Spirit of the back again? 431 00:21:35,119 --> 00:21:37,720 Speaker 3: Yeah, we'll talk about their backups after we just go 432 00:21:37,760 --> 00:21:40,240 Speaker 3: through the potential backups of quarterback, after we go through 433 00:21:40,760 --> 00:21:42,800 Speaker 3: just the first team. But this offense is really good. 434 00:21:42,800 --> 00:21:44,560 Speaker 3: The question is, and this is kind of the only 435 00:21:44,560 --> 00:21:46,760 Speaker 3: thing that I was thinking, how does Alabama? Because I 436 00:21:46,800 --> 00:21:48,639 Speaker 3: think Ohio State's gonna move the ball. I think Ohio 437 00:21:48,680 --> 00:21:52,119 Speaker 3: State's getting into the thirties minimum. Does Alabama take a 438 00:21:52,200 --> 00:21:56,399 Speaker 3: page out of Northwestern's book and play a completely different 439 00:21:56,440 --> 00:22:00,920 Speaker 3: scheme where they rush three drop eight where Fields really struggled. 440 00:22:01,400 --> 00:22:03,560 Speaker 3: His numbers were awful, and they just kind of took 441 00:22:03,560 --> 00:22:06,960 Speaker 3: away all the passing lanes. So does Alabama kind of 442 00:22:07,119 --> 00:22:10,000 Speaker 3: do a point eighty on their defensive identity and scheme. 443 00:22:10,359 --> 00:22:13,200 Speaker 3: Switch it up there. Let me know how I used 444 00:22:13,200 --> 00:22:14,320 Speaker 3: see it? How do you see it? Plan out? With 445 00:22:14,320 --> 00:22:15,679 Speaker 3: the Ohio State as the ball. 446 00:22:15,880 --> 00:22:18,840 Speaker 7: I think at a very high level, the offensive game 447 00:22:18,880 --> 00:22:21,480 Speaker 7: plan for Ryan Day is, I will take what you're 448 00:22:21,480 --> 00:22:23,800 Speaker 7: going to give me. You're gonna rush three and drop 449 00:22:23,840 --> 00:22:26,600 Speaker 7: eight something that we haven't seen before. Then I'm gonna 450 00:22:26,600 --> 00:22:28,679 Speaker 7: have Justin Field's run on you and get ten to 451 00:22:28,720 --> 00:22:31,520 Speaker 7: twenty yard games. And I'm gonna feed Trey sermon like 452 00:22:31,560 --> 00:22:34,520 Speaker 7: there's no tomorrow, and I think that we need to 453 00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:36,800 Speaker 7: give I know we're a betting podcast, but let's make 454 00:22:36,840 --> 00:22:39,520 Speaker 7: this an offensive line podcast. The offensive line has just 455 00:22:39,560 --> 00:22:42,840 Speaker 7: been amazing. I can't even talk enough about all the 456 00:22:42,840 --> 00:22:45,120 Speaker 7: film that I watched, you know, back through the game 457 00:22:45,200 --> 00:22:47,640 Speaker 7: on some of the Ohio State and you know, their 458 00:22:47,720 --> 00:22:49,919 Speaker 7: left guard, Harry Miller, he had COVID and he couldn't 459 00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:52,919 Speaker 7: participate in the In the semi final game, Matthew Jones 460 00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:55,879 Speaker 7: fills in as a backup. He gets injured during the 461 00:22:55,880 --> 00:22:59,200 Speaker 7: cleansing game, and then freshman Paris Johnson comes in and 462 00:22:59,240 --> 00:23:03,000 Speaker 7: that hole that that entire tray Sermon run where he 463 00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:06,400 Speaker 7: was untouched that was plowed by the third third stringer 464 00:23:06,440 --> 00:23:09,119 Speaker 7: they put in it left guard. So that's how great 465 00:23:09,200 --> 00:23:13,320 Speaker 7: this run blocking offense is Ohio State. If they I 466 00:23:13,359 --> 00:23:14,679 Speaker 7: don't want to eat my words here, but if they 467 00:23:14,680 --> 00:23:17,719 Speaker 7: don't win this national championship, I don't see why they 468 00:23:17,720 --> 00:23:22,080 Speaker 7: can't win next year's national championship. They are completely loaded, 469 00:23:22,160 --> 00:23:24,520 Speaker 7: especially in the trench, especially in the offensive. 470 00:23:24,119 --> 00:23:28,520 Speaker 3: Line's best offensive line, which is saying something yeah, And I. 471 00:23:28,440 --> 00:23:30,920 Speaker 7: Think the thing is is Trey Sermon's just he's lost 472 00:23:30,920 --> 00:23:34,720 Speaker 7: his mind. I mean shades of Ezekiel Elliott having a 473 00:23:34,840 --> 00:23:38,119 Speaker 7: vanilla lukewarm type regular season and then when it matters, 474 00:23:38,200 --> 00:23:40,600 Speaker 7: just going crazy. And what I mean by that is 475 00:23:40,680 --> 00:23:43,960 Speaker 7: leading up to the Big Ten Championship, Trace Sermon only 476 00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:47,280 Speaker 7: had nine avoided tackles and only one hundred and seventy 477 00:23:47,320 --> 00:23:52,359 Speaker 7: five yards of after contact. That's it total cumulative. What's 478 00:23:52,359 --> 00:23:54,280 Speaker 7: he done in the last two games two hundred and 479 00:23:54,400 --> 00:23:58,440 Speaker 7: ninety three yards after contact, twenty four missed tackles. That's 480 00:23:58,480 --> 00:24:00,600 Speaker 7: just in the running game. I have an even begun 481 00:24:00,600 --> 00:24:04,440 Speaker 7: to mention the fact that Trey Sermon only had five 482 00:24:04,560 --> 00:24:07,440 Speaker 7: targets out of the backfield. Through their first five games 483 00:24:07,560 --> 00:24:11,919 Speaker 7: against Northwestern and in the semi final, he's had ten targets. 484 00:24:12,320 --> 00:24:15,120 Speaker 7: He is now a huge part of the passing game. 485 00:24:15,400 --> 00:24:18,679 Speaker 7: So when you ask me, what's going to happen against 486 00:24:18,960 --> 00:24:22,320 Speaker 7: Alabama's defense, if they do decide to go rush three, 487 00:24:22,480 --> 00:24:25,080 Speaker 7: drop eight, You're gonna see a lot of justin fields 488 00:24:25,119 --> 00:24:28,120 Speaker 7: running the ball. But whatever defense they put up there, 489 00:24:28,400 --> 00:24:32,520 Speaker 7: I think you see Trey Sermon in swing passes, bubble screens, 490 00:24:33,160 --> 00:24:35,240 Speaker 7: any kind of screens. And I think they are going 491 00:24:35,280 --> 00:24:38,439 Speaker 7: to take advantage of the weakest part of the Alabama defense, 492 00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:43,240 Speaker 7: which is the linebacker corps, the Christian Harris, the Dylan Moses. 493 00:24:43,400 --> 00:24:46,119 Speaker 7: They are the lowest rated in pass coverage. They're not 494 00:24:46,200 --> 00:24:50,439 Speaker 7: really too high rated and rush and tackling. The strength 495 00:24:50,480 --> 00:24:53,800 Speaker 7: of this Alabama defense is Patrick's certain the second Josh Joe, 496 00:24:53,840 --> 00:24:56,760 Speaker 7: Malachi Moore, three cornerbacks. You can line them up anywhere 497 00:24:56,760 --> 00:25:00,800 Speaker 7: and shut people down. And I think from a perspective, 498 00:25:00,840 --> 00:25:04,560 Speaker 7: that's really bad news for Garrett Wilson. It's kind of 499 00:25:04,560 --> 00:25:07,239 Speaker 7: bad news for Chris A. Lave although he has you know, 500 00:25:07,320 --> 00:25:09,720 Speaker 7: he's good enough to create some space and get something done, 501 00:25:09,800 --> 00:25:13,560 Speaker 7: and he is justin Field's prime go to guy. 502 00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:16,000 Speaker 3: So get the defense at least once. 503 00:25:16,280 --> 00:25:19,120 Speaker 7: Yeah, yeah, he'll get Chris lave Is gonna get yards. 504 00:25:19,200 --> 00:25:21,200 Speaker 7: But this is not somebody I'm rushing to bet and 505 00:25:21,280 --> 00:25:22,560 Speaker 7: overprop on on anything. 506 00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:25,280 Speaker 3: But we're going tight ends again here, tight end, yeah, 507 00:25:25,320 --> 00:25:25,879 Speaker 3: tight end. 508 00:25:25,720 --> 00:25:29,680 Speaker 7: You here we go for some reason, Ryan Day last 509 00:25:29,760 --> 00:25:33,000 Speaker 7: year twenty nineteen, twenty one percent of place for Ohio 510 00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:35,760 Speaker 7: State in twenty nineteen in the twelve formation two tight 511 00:25:35,840 --> 00:25:39,000 Speaker 7: end set. That twenty one percent this year jumped to 512 00:25:39,080 --> 00:25:42,880 Speaker 7: thirty three percent. College football is changing. Five to six 513 00:25:42,960 --> 00:25:45,199 Speaker 7: years ago, the SEC decided they needed to be the 514 00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:48,240 Speaker 7: big twelve. Run a lot of ten, run a lot 515 00:25:48,280 --> 00:25:51,320 Speaker 7: of four wide receiver sets, get some rpo out in space. 516 00:25:51,920 --> 00:25:55,439 Speaker 7: College football is changing. We have two teams competing in 517 00:25:55,440 --> 00:25:59,679 Speaker 7: the National Championship that are running a massive amount of twelve. 518 00:26:00,600 --> 00:26:02,480 Speaker 7: So be on the lookout next year for tight ends. 519 00:26:02,520 --> 00:26:04,600 Speaker 7: I mean, we need to pay attention to tight end recruiting. 520 00:26:05,040 --> 00:26:08,000 Speaker 7: But once you look at those weapons, if you want 521 00:26:08,000 --> 00:26:11,520 Speaker 7: to attack a linebacker like Dylan Moses and Christian Harris, 522 00:26:12,240 --> 00:26:14,920 Speaker 7: then you're going to get Trey Sermon in some passes 523 00:26:15,359 --> 00:26:18,480 Speaker 7: and you're going to run screen passes to your tight ends. 524 00:26:18,680 --> 00:26:20,680 Speaker 7: That's how you're going to attack the middle. And that's 525 00:26:20,680 --> 00:26:22,480 Speaker 7: exactly what I think is going to happen. Now, where 526 00:26:22,480 --> 00:26:25,719 Speaker 7: the difference in this game comes is the fact that 527 00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:28,680 Speaker 7: Alabama's secondary, who by the way, is top twenty in 528 00:26:28,720 --> 00:26:32,040 Speaker 7: the nation, and PBUs per game. I mean, they're pass 529 00:26:32,119 --> 00:26:35,440 Speaker 7: breakup monsters. Malachi Moore is going to be fine in 530 00:26:35,480 --> 00:26:38,200 Speaker 7: this game. Patrick certain is going to shut somebody down. 531 00:26:39,160 --> 00:26:41,240 Speaker 7: But let me tell you the difference. Like I said 532 00:26:41,240 --> 00:26:44,480 Speaker 7: at the beginning of the podcast, momentum killer rate, how 533 00:26:44,520 --> 00:26:47,719 Speaker 7: good is your offense at achieving all of the yards 534 00:26:47,720 --> 00:26:51,720 Speaker 7: and getting and not having any disruption, no interceptions, no fumbles, 535 00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:53,840 Speaker 7: no field goals, no sacks, no turnover on downs. We 536 00:26:53,880 --> 00:26:55,680 Speaker 7: talked about Ohio State sack rate. 537 00:26:56,320 --> 00:26:56,760 Speaker 3: It's there. 538 00:26:57,359 --> 00:27:01,560 Speaker 7: That's a part of momentum killer rate. Alabam second lowest 539 00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:04,679 Speaker 7: momentum killer rate in the nation. It's seven point nine percent, 540 00:27:05,240 --> 00:27:09,840 Speaker 7: Ohio State seventy seventh. That is the difference in this ballgame. 541 00:27:09,880 --> 00:27:12,280 Speaker 7: That is why I would want a plus eight because 542 00:27:12,320 --> 00:27:14,760 Speaker 7: if this thing goes to overtime. Let's say Ohio Sate 543 00:27:14,760 --> 00:27:16,800 Speaker 7: does everything perfectly and they go to overtime, I would 544 00:27:16,840 --> 00:27:19,800 Speaker 7: want a plus eight in this scenario, we've seen crazy things. 545 00:27:20,160 --> 00:27:24,439 Speaker 7: I'll OEU Texas, but seventy seventh for Ohio State and 546 00:27:24,440 --> 00:27:27,119 Speaker 7: momentum killer rate and the two biggest areas where they 547 00:27:27,119 --> 00:27:30,840 Speaker 7: take themselves out of the ballgame sacks and ten plus 548 00:27:30,920 --> 00:27:34,040 Speaker 7: yard penalties. Ohio State is top twenty five in the 549 00:27:34,119 --> 00:27:37,720 Speaker 7: nation and getting flagged for ten plus yard penalties. So 550 00:27:38,640 --> 00:27:42,080 Speaker 7: as much as I think this offense can be successful 551 00:27:42,119 --> 00:27:45,560 Speaker 7: and efficient and can get down and hang with Alabama, 552 00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:47,840 Speaker 7: they've shown this year they can take themselves out of 553 00:27:47,840 --> 00:27:50,400 Speaker 7: the race and if you get down two possessions, it's 554 00:27:50,400 --> 00:27:53,040 Speaker 7: a battle for the rest of the night. Now, little quiz, 555 00:27:53,960 --> 00:27:56,520 Speaker 7: you know I mentioned momentum killer rate and Alabama being 556 00:27:56,560 --> 00:27:59,440 Speaker 7: second best in the nation. Stuck, I'll ask you who 557 00:27:59,520 --> 00:28:03,680 Speaker 7: is the twenty twenty best lowest rate and momentum killer 558 00:28:03,840 --> 00:28:05,160 Speaker 7: on offense in the nation. 559 00:28:05,720 --> 00:28:08,359 Speaker 3: This means like a team that doesn't kill itself, they 560 00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:11,080 Speaker 3: never take itselves off the field. Well, my first thought 561 00:28:11,160 --> 00:28:13,840 Speaker 3: was going to be Kent State, but I remember that 562 00:28:13,920 --> 00:28:17,399 Speaker 3: Buffalo game and they only played a couple of games 563 00:28:17,440 --> 00:28:20,240 Speaker 3: this year. Ball State, you. 564 00:28:20,160 --> 00:28:22,359 Speaker 7: Are right on the first shot. It was Kent State. 565 00:28:22,600 --> 00:28:25,040 Speaker 7: Kent State ever won in the nation and momentum killer 566 00:28:25,119 --> 00:28:28,560 Speaker 7: rate on offense. So it and that's the thing is, like, 567 00:28:28,880 --> 00:28:30,439 Speaker 7: you know, we had games had the. 568 00:28:30,480 --> 00:28:33,800 Speaker 3: Nation in scoring. I think, yeah, they were better than Alabama. 569 00:28:33,880 --> 00:28:36,040 Speaker 7: I mean, when you get seven hundred yards put up 570 00:28:36,080 --> 00:28:38,280 Speaker 7: on the board and the other team puts six hundred 571 00:28:38,320 --> 00:28:40,920 Speaker 7: yards up on the board, momentum killer rate is something 572 00:28:40,920 --> 00:28:42,520 Speaker 7: I think we should pay a little bit more attention 573 00:28:42,560 --> 00:28:44,680 Speaker 7: to in the twenty twenty one season, especially after we 574 00:28:44,720 --> 00:28:48,160 Speaker 7: get some data. But Alabama being second at the schedule 575 00:28:48,200 --> 00:28:50,720 Speaker 7: that they've played, it is still pretty amazing. But I 576 00:28:50,760 --> 00:28:51,760 Speaker 7: think you know. 577 00:28:51,920 --> 00:28:54,040 Speaker 3: That's wait, hold on, that's that doesn't take into account 578 00:28:54,040 --> 00:28:55,800 Speaker 3: turnover on downs though, right, it does. 579 00:28:55,880 --> 00:28:58,640 Speaker 7: It does take turnover downs. Yeah, yeah. 580 00:28:58,640 --> 00:29:01,120 Speaker 3: The only thing Kent State did can turn overall all 581 00:29:01,200 --> 00:29:03,000 Speaker 3: year and they just put up a good jillion points. 582 00:29:03,000 --> 00:29:05,640 Speaker 3: The only thing that I made a good kicker, I 583 00:29:05,640 --> 00:29:07,520 Speaker 3: mean the granit they only played like four games. But 584 00:29:07,600 --> 00:29:08,760 Speaker 3: all right, I'm glad, I got it. 585 00:29:08,720 --> 00:29:10,720 Speaker 7: It's still didnt m zero percent is still like four 586 00:29:10,760 --> 00:29:13,560 Speaker 7: point eight percent. But still they they were the best 587 00:29:13,680 --> 00:29:16,000 Speaker 7: in the nation and momentum killer rate on offense. 588 00:29:16,320 --> 00:29:18,720 Speaker 3: But I mean, to me, yeah, that's field taking those 589 00:29:18,840 --> 00:29:20,040 Speaker 3: taking sacks. 590 00:29:19,720 --> 00:29:23,960 Speaker 7: And ten yard penalties. Yeah, and ten yard penalties is 591 00:29:23,960 --> 00:29:25,719 Speaker 7: something I didn't expect to see. I didn't know how 592 00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:29,200 Speaker 7: State was getting flagged that much on offense for ten 593 00:29:29,240 --> 00:29:32,640 Speaker 7: plus yard penalties. But they are so certainly something to 594 00:29:32,720 --> 00:29:35,200 Speaker 7: keep your eyes on, especially with this referee crew coming 595 00:29:35,240 --> 00:29:37,680 Speaker 7: in from the Big Twelve who cannot manage a clock 596 00:29:37,760 --> 00:29:41,360 Speaker 7: and they love to call a lot of holding. So, uh, 597 00:29:41,400 --> 00:29:43,800 Speaker 7: you know it's your favorite referee from the OU Texas game, 598 00:29:43,840 --> 00:29:48,080 Speaker 7: Brandon Cruz. Uh he is now a senior referee in 599 00:29:48,160 --> 00:29:50,480 Speaker 7: the Big twelve, but he's only got five year of 600 00:29:50,560 --> 00:29:53,760 Speaker 7: D one experience. Uh, you know, digging deep into this 601 00:29:53,880 --> 00:29:57,400 Speaker 7: referee crew, it'll be in my piece on Action Network. 602 00:29:57,640 --> 00:30:00,640 Speaker 7: You know this referee, certain referee came from Mountain West. 603 00:30:00,640 --> 00:30:02,200 Speaker 7: He's only been in the Big twelve, I think for 604 00:30:02,240 --> 00:30:05,240 Speaker 7: two years now. But the Big Twelve had a huge churn, 605 00:30:05,280 --> 00:30:09,080 Speaker 7: a huge turnover of guys. Just one of them took 606 00:30:09,080 --> 00:30:11,600 Speaker 7: another job at another conference. Within like four or five 607 00:30:11,600 --> 00:30:13,560 Speaker 7: of them that have been there forever, they all retired. 608 00:30:14,120 --> 00:30:18,600 Speaker 7: So somebody that only has five years of FBS refereeing 609 00:30:18,640 --> 00:30:21,800 Speaker 7: experience is now the head crew official here. He is 610 00:30:21,840 --> 00:30:26,000 Speaker 7: famously known for taking forty six seconds off the clock 611 00:30:26,680 --> 00:30:28,920 Speaker 7: at the six minute mark when OU is up thirty 612 00:30:28,920 --> 00:30:32,000 Speaker 7: one to seventeen, giving an extra forty six seconds to 613 00:30:32,080 --> 00:30:36,000 Speaker 7: Texas for god knows whatever reason. It's in the article. 614 00:30:36,040 --> 00:30:38,320 Speaker 7: I've queued up the YouTube for everybody to watch. 615 00:30:38,720 --> 00:30:41,040 Speaker 3: Why keep bringing this game up? This is the I'm 616 00:30:41,160 --> 00:30:43,000 Speaker 3: on a high in the balls and now we're bringing 617 00:30:43,080 --> 00:30:46,000 Speaker 3: up my lowest moment. I lost a million live bets 618 00:30:46,040 --> 00:30:47,200 Speaker 3: on Texas because of this. 619 00:30:47,760 --> 00:30:52,240 Speaker 7: Matt Mitchell que up the Gus Johnson College Football. 620 00:30:54,240 --> 00:30:59,480 Speaker 3: College football unbelievable, unbelievable. 621 00:31:00,160 --> 00:31:03,440 Speaker 7: So the referee crew is not probably the best. Oh 622 00:31:03,520 --> 00:31:05,240 Speaker 7: the Big twelve at I remember the I know we 623 00:31:05,360 --> 00:31:07,000 Speaker 7: have to review this because it's our head official, but 624 00:31:07,360 --> 00:31:10,480 Speaker 7: Big twelve just makes a statement. Yet we fucked up. 625 00:31:11,000 --> 00:31:14,200 Speaker 7: No disciplinary action, no nothing, But here you go. You 626 00:31:15,360 --> 00:31:18,920 Speaker 7: get to ref the national championship game. How is this 627 00:31:18,960 --> 00:31:21,400 Speaker 7: guy the one that gets to ref the national championship 628 00:31:21,400 --> 00:31:23,480 Speaker 7: game when he took forty six seconds off the clock. 629 00:31:24,040 --> 00:31:27,520 Speaker 7: I mean that still blows my mind. But anyway, side 630 00:31:27,520 --> 00:31:30,640 Speaker 7: note for the for the National Championship here. You know, 631 00:31:30,840 --> 00:31:33,720 Speaker 7: Ohio State is flagged for a lot of penalties, more 632 00:31:33,760 --> 00:31:36,280 Speaker 7: than most teams in FBS and that could be an 633 00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:37,800 Speaker 7: issue here with these big twelve refs. 634 00:31:38,040 --> 00:31:43,720 Speaker 3: Yeah, now, I'm sure bringing up that game now we 635 00:31:44,200 --> 00:31:46,760 Speaker 3: talked about officials. I do just want to clear the 636 00:31:46,800 --> 00:31:49,400 Speaker 3: air here when weather. It doesn't look like there's going 637 00:31:49,440 --> 00:31:53,600 Speaker 3: to be any weather. This game is played in Miami 638 00:31:53,720 --> 00:31:56,160 Speaker 3: at hard Rock. I was talking with one of our 639 00:31:56,280 --> 00:31:58,440 Speaker 3: editors who said that or that you were talking about 640 00:31:58,520 --> 00:32:03,200 Speaker 3: the architecture of the stadium for about forty five minutes. 641 00:32:03,600 --> 00:32:08,680 Speaker 3: But basically it's that wind doesn't really matter here as 642 00:32:08,720 --> 00:32:10,600 Speaker 3: much as other states. But it doesn't look like it's 643 00:32:10,600 --> 00:32:12,840 Speaker 3: going to be a topic of conversation regardless. I think 644 00:32:12,840 --> 00:32:15,160 Speaker 3: it's forecast to be like six seven miles per hour. Yeah, 645 00:32:15,200 --> 00:32:17,480 Speaker 3: nothing on web, nothing on weather here, right, Yeah, I. 646 00:32:17,440 --> 00:32:20,040 Speaker 7: Mean there's a there's apparently a ten to twelve mile 647 00:32:20,080 --> 00:32:22,320 Speaker 7: one hour wind with hard Rock Stadium. But if you 648 00:32:22,600 --> 00:32:23,880 Speaker 7: I mean, if you go, this is where the super 649 00:32:23,920 --> 00:32:26,880 Speaker 7: Bowl was played with the Chiefs, you know, and this 650 00:32:26,920 --> 00:32:30,640 Speaker 7: is where Kyler Murray and two Attacker Ayola combined for 651 00:32:30,760 --> 00:32:34,200 Speaker 7: over ninety points in a semi final. A couple of 652 00:32:34,280 --> 00:32:37,120 Speaker 7: years ago, they redid hard Rock, you know, the old 653 00:32:37,200 --> 00:32:39,760 Speaker 7: Joe Robbie Stadium where it used to be you know, 654 00:32:40,160 --> 00:32:42,360 Speaker 7: kind of shaped like a bowl with some spirals on 655 00:32:42,360 --> 00:32:44,760 Speaker 7: the outside. The people walk to the upper decks. And 656 00:32:44,800 --> 00:32:48,360 Speaker 7: when you have that type of stadium architecture, whether it's 657 00:32:48,440 --> 00:32:52,000 Speaker 7: baseball or whether it's football, the wind can get in 658 00:32:52,160 --> 00:32:54,880 Speaker 7: and it can swirl. And wind swirling is a really 659 00:32:54,920 --> 00:32:56,760 Speaker 7: big deal. I mean, I go to Lambeau with my 660 00:32:56,840 --> 00:32:59,960 Speaker 7: dad every single year, and I can't even tell you 661 00:33:00,080 --> 00:33:02,320 Speaker 7: how ridiculous it is that I can see three different 662 00:33:02,320 --> 00:33:05,080 Speaker 7: directions of wind when I'm actually sitting in there inside 663 00:33:05,080 --> 00:33:07,840 Speaker 7: of Lamba. But that's not what this is. And it 664 00:33:07,920 --> 00:33:10,680 Speaker 7: is very windy in South Florida. But the problem is 665 00:33:10,680 --> 00:33:13,960 Speaker 7: is this new architecture of hard rock stadium. It's just 666 00:33:13,960 --> 00:33:16,520 Speaker 7: not a big deal because it's like a flat disc 667 00:33:16,600 --> 00:33:18,280 Speaker 7: that they put on top. It's a square, it's not 668 00:33:18,320 --> 00:33:21,040 Speaker 7: really a circular disc, but it's like a flat top 669 00:33:21,080 --> 00:33:23,680 Speaker 7: that they put on and there's a cutout on the 670 00:33:23,720 --> 00:33:26,440 Speaker 7: top that goes over the field. If there's a rain, 671 00:33:26,560 --> 00:33:28,360 Speaker 7: sometimes it comes in one way and hits some of 672 00:33:28,400 --> 00:33:30,880 Speaker 7: the fans. But wind is not allowed to get in 673 00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:33,600 Speaker 7: there and do a swirl and do all kinds of 674 00:33:33,600 --> 00:33:36,160 Speaker 7: funky stuff. When I go to Razorback games, the first 675 00:33:36,160 --> 00:33:38,200 Speaker 7: thing I'm doing is I mean, I know where the 676 00:33:38,240 --> 00:33:42,200 Speaker 7: wind is blowing because I know Fayeville blind. And what 677 00:33:42,240 --> 00:33:43,600 Speaker 7: I do is I look at the flags on the 678 00:33:43,640 --> 00:33:45,360 Speaker 7: field goal post to see you know you're going left, 679 00:33:45,440 --> 00:33:47,080 Speaker 7: going right, you're going back? What are you doing here? 680 00:33:47,480 --> 00:33:50,240 Speaker 7: And the thing is just stadium architecture means so much 681 00:33:50,320 --> 00:33:52,480 Speaker 7: to whether the wind is actually getting in there and 682 00:33:52,520 --> 00:33:56,000 Speaker 7: swooping it around completely. Not a factor here, not a 683 00:33:56,160 --> 00:33:58,200 Speaker 7: non factor in this in hard rock stadium. 684 00:33:58,480 --> 00:34:01,200 Speaker 3: All right. I told everyone I'm not gonna leave Eddy 685 00:34:01,360 --> 00:34:04,600 Speaker 3: Stone unturned. We got the weather, we got the officials 686 00:34:04,640 --> 00:34:05,280 Speaker 3: out of the way. 687 00:34:05,560 --> 00:34:07,800 Speaker 4: I hope you're enjoying this great action network podcast. I 688 00:34:07,800 --> 00:34:09,480 Speaker 4: want to make sure you know about the Locked On 689 00:34:09,640 --> 00:34:12,879 Speaker 4: podcast network. Locked on as a daily podcast on your 690 00:34:12,960 --> 00:34:13,520 Speaker 4: favorite team. 691 00:34:13,680 --> 00:34:15,440 Speaker 3: Welcome to you, Lockdown forty nine ers. 692 00:34:15,440 --> 00:34:17,480 Speaker 7: You are locked on of the Dallas marriage Can everybody 693 00:34:17,480 --> 00:34:18,920 Speaker 7: to the Locked on Lakers podcast? 694 00:34:19,120 --> 00:34:19,680 Speaker 3: Let's Go? 695 00:34:20,000 --> 00:34:22,920 Speaker 4: Locked On podcasts are hosted by the local experts who 696 00:34:22,960 --> 00:34:25,200 Speaker 4: know your team better than anyone and give you the 697 00:34:25,200 --> 00:34:28,000 Speaker 4: inside scoop. So go to your podcast app and search 698 00:34:28,200 --> 00:34:32,520 Speaker 4: locked on your favorite team, subscribe to your locked on podcast. 699 00:34:35,719 --> 00:34:38,040 Speaker 3: I guess we've got special teams. Now, I don't think 700 00:34:38,680 --> 00:34:40,560 Speaker 3: special teams are going to play a huge role in 701 00:34:40,600 --> 00:34:43,319 Speaker 3: this And one of my favorite people that can follow 702 00:34:43,360 --> 00:34:45,960 Speaker 3: me for a long time know that I always give 703 00:34:46,000 --> 00:34:49,680 Speaker 3: shit to saving about a shitty special teams SST. I'll 704 00:34:49,719 --> 00:34:51,880 Speaker 3: just tweet out but that these special teams are pretty 705 00:34:51,880 --> 00:34:56,440 Speaker 3: good this year. Reliable kicker and that's generally what trips 706 00:34:56,480 --> 00:34:59,440 Speaker 3: them up. Random miss chip shot field goals that I 707 00:34:59,520 --> 00:35:01,239 Speaker 3: laugh at, but I can't even laugh at that with 708 00:35:01,280 --> 00:35:05,120 Speaker 3: this team any notes, I don't think there's a special 709 00:35:05,160 --> 00:35:07,040 Speaker 3: teams is going to play a big role or gives 710 00:35:07,239 --> 00:35:10,040 Speaker 3: a huge edge to either team here. If Waddell went, 711 00:35:10,440 --> 00:35:13,440 Speaker 3: he potentially could make a game changing play on a punt. 712 00:35:13,440 --> 00:35:15,319 Speaker 3: But if Ohio State is punting too much, they're in 713 00:35:15,360 --> 00:35:17,840 Speaker 3: trouble anyway. Thoughts on special teams. 714 00:35:17,760 --> 00:35:20,000 Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean both kickers have made all their pats, 715 00:35:20,360 --> 00:35:23,840 Speaker 7: you know in Alabama crazy enough as much as the 716 00:35:23,920 --> 00:35:26,160 Speaker 7: kicker history that they have is how bad it's been. 717 00:35:26,440 --> 00:35:29,520 Speaker 7: Will Reikerd's been perfect this year, absolutely perfect this year. 718 00:35:29,760 --> 00:35:32,400 Speaker 7: He's hit all thirteen field goals, He's hit all seventy 719 00:35:32,400 --> 00:35:36,560 Speaker 7: three point after attempts. So I can't find anything in 720 00:35:36,600 --> 00:35:40,080 Speaker 7: the kicking game on the Ohio State side with Blake 721 00:35:40,200 --> 00:35:42,759 Speaker 7: pabl it's a little bit of a different story. He's 722 00:35:42,800 --> 00:35:46,720 Speaker 7: got a three year kicking history. He's posted up twenty 723 00:35:46,719 --> 00:35:48,839 Speaker 7: eight field goals on thirty five attempts, so he has 724 00:35:48,880 --> 00:35:52,839 Speaker 7: actually missed seven in his career. And what's crazy is 725 00:35:52,840 --> 00:35:55,319 Speaker 7: is he's really good from forty plus, Like he's hit 726 00:35:55,360 --> 00:35:58,279 Speaker 7: eight of ten from forty plus, but he's just six 727 00:35:58,360 --> 00:36:00,960 Speaker 7: of nine from thirty to the thirty nine yard range. 728 00:36:01,280 --> 00:36:03,760 Speaker 7: So I'm not sure how that comes from a betting standpoint. 729 00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:06,640 Speaker 7: If you can find a kicking prop that's like longest 730 00:36:06,680 --> 00:36:10,479 Speaker 7: field goal over x number, these guys have the leg. 731 00:36:10,920 --> 00:36:13,600 Speaker 7: What's crazy is the Ohio State kicker actually has problems 732 00:36:13,640 --> 00:36:16,839 Speaker 7: from thirty to thirty nine. He has no problems from 733 00:36:16,880 --> 00:36:20,520 Speaker 7: deep and neither does Alabama's kicker. So from a kicking aspect, 734 00:36:20,520 --> 00:36:22,759 Speaker 7: if you're going to bet props there, they have the 735 00:36:22,840 --> 00:36:26,560 Speaker 7: leg to boot it. Now the biggest you know, I'll 736 00:36:26,560 --> 00:36:29,200 Speaker 7: have all this in the article for everybody like the differences, 737 00:36:29,280 --> 00:36:31,319 Speaker 7: because there is a major difference in special teams here. 738 00:36:31,719 --> 00:36:36,640 Speaker 7: Overall SMP ranking SP plus ranking is eighty fifth for 739 00:36:36,680 --> 00:36:40,640 Speaker 7: Ohio State, twentieth for Alabama, and there's some kickoff stuff 740 00:36:40,680 --> 00:36:44,160 Speaker 7: in there, but really the biggest edge is punt return units. 741 00:36:44,560 --> 00:36:47,480 Speaker 7: And Alabama ranks ninth and fifteen point six yards per 742 00:36:47,480 --> 00:36:50,480 Speaker 7: attempt in punt returns, and Ohio State is seventy second 743 00:36:50,680 --> 00:36:53,439 Speaker 7: at six point seven yards per attempt. But let's ask 744 00:36:53,480 --> 00:36:56,920 Speaker 7: ourselves a question, are we punting in this game? I 745 00:36:56,920 --> 00:36:59,640 Speaker 7: don't think we're punting in this game very much. So 746 00:36:59,680 --> 00:37:02,320 Speaker 7: the big edge and the biggest difference in special teams 747 00:37:02,719 --> 00:37:04,279 Speaker 7: comes in a part of the game I don't think 748 00:37:04,400 --> 00:37:06,120 Speaker 7: is going to be used very much by either coach. 749 00:37:06,600 --> 00:37:09,879 Speaker 3: YEP, completely agree. I think special teams it could make 750 00:37:09,880 --> 00:37:11,760 Speaker 3: a difference in the game, but I don't think it's 751 00:37:11,920 --> 00:37:17,319 Speaker 3: a worthy consideration from a pregame handicapping perspective. So bottom line, 752 00:37:17,320 --> 00:37:19,600 Speaker 3: to wrap up when well, I guess the wrapper on 753 00:37:19,680 --> 00:37:22,319 Speaker 3: I hot to say as the ball if fields. So 754 00:37:22,640 --> 00:37:23,920 Speaker 3: the word on the street is he just has a 755 00:37:23,960 --> 00:37:25,399 Speaker 3: hip pointer. He's gonna be able to go. He's gonna 756 00:37:25,400 --> 00:37:28,399 Speaker 3: be able to run. We won't know until we see 757 00:37:28,480 --> 00:37:31,520 Speaker 3: him out there, but everything that I've heard is positive news. 758 00:37:31,800 --> 00:37:34,839 Speaker 3: If he can't go, honestly does have a full quarterback room, 759 00:37:35,400 --> 00:37:38,719 Speaker 3: I would assume you know you have Jack Miller is 760 00:37:38,760 --> 00:37:41,759 Speaker 3: more high pro style recruit. He's on some of the 761 00:37:41,800 --> 00:37:44,040 Speaker 3: heis and boards for next year. But I think it 762 00:37:44,080 --> 00:37:47,600 Speaker 3: would actually be Stroud, who is a higher recruit. He's 763 00:37:47,719 --> 00:37:50,360 Speaker 3: more of a dual threat, can run the read option. 764 00:37:51,120 --> 00:37:54,919 Speaker 3: I think regardless, it would probably be you know, save 765 00:37:55,040 --> 00:37:57,560 Speaker 3: Fields has ruled out. I don't know. I haven't dug 766 00:37:57,600 --> 00:37:59,240 Speaker 3: too deep, but I think it would probably be about 767 00:37:59,400 --> 00:38:01,880 Speaker 3: I'd have to it'll be their first career start. I'd 768 00:38:01,920 --> 00:38:04,640 Speaker 3: have to stay. I'd have to start conservatively and say 769 00:38:04,640 --> 00:38:07,960 Speaker 3: it would probably be about a touchdown drop. So say 770 00:38:08,040 --> 00:38:11,080 Speaker 3: Field's got announced out, I think this thing should go 771 00:38:11,120 --> 00:38:13,080 Speaker 3: to around two touchdowns. Any thoughts on. 772 00:38:13,200 --> 00:38:16,360 Speaker 7: That, Well, you need the ability to complete a pass 773 00:38:16,400 --> 00:38:18,520 Speaker 7: to Tray Sermon in the backfield to take advantage of 774 00:38:18,520 --> 00:38:23,719 Speaker 7: the linebackers. I'm not sure Fields listen. Fields is one 775 00:38:23,760 --> 00:38:26,480 Speaker 7: of the best quarterbacks in the nation by far deserves 776 00:38:26,480 --> 00:38:29,279 Speaker 7: every accolade that he's getting. I just don't think he 777 00:38:29,400 --> 00:38:31,200 Speaker 7: was going to have much success to Wilson and the 778 00:38:31,280 --> 00:38:34,600 Speaker 7: lave downfield anyways. So really you need a backup quarterback 779 00:38:34,640 --> 00:38:38,040 Speaker 7: that can hit Tray Sermon, hit some slot routes, take 780 00:38:38,080 --> 00:38:41,239 Speaker 7: advantage of the linebackers. You know, the leg aspect is 781 00:38:41,280 --> 00:38:43,640 Speaker 7: not going to be there. Now, Alabama could completely disregard 782 00:38:43,640 --> 00:38:46,040 Speaker 7: whatever quarterback comes in, but if they are dual threat 783 00:38:46,040 --> 00:38:48,680 Speaker 7: and can run, that helps out a little bit. As 784 00:38:48,800 --> 00:38:52,399 Speaker 7: far as Justin Field's not playing, I mean, you've got 785 00:38:52,400 --> 00:38:55,000 Speaker 7: to put his value at a minimum of six points 786 00:38:55,040 --> 00:38:58,359 Speaker 7: in my opinion, you know, the drop off there because 787 00:38:58,360 --> 00:39:00,839 Speaker 7: there's just nobody else that's taken stabs and has real 788 00:39:00,880 --> 00:39:03,879 Speaker 7: game time experience. If this is a Clemson situation where 789 00:39:03,920 --> 00:39:07,399 Speaker 7: DJ's back there, it's minimal. Like I did a little 790 00:39:07,400 --> 00:39:11,239 Speaker 7: bit of returning production work today, so everybody, you know, 791 00:39:11,480 --> 00:39:13,800 Speaker 7: our friend of the podcast, Brett McMurphy is going to 792 00:39:13,840 --> 00:39:17,479 Speaker 7: release the twenty twenty one college Football Top twenty five 793 00:39:17,560 --> 00:39:21,640 Speaker 7: after the National Championship game, and you know, when Trevor is, 794 00:39:21,960 --> 00:39:24,719 Speaker 7: you know, declaring for the NFL Draft, the drop to 795 00:39:24,800 --> 00:39:29,160 Speaker 7: DJ isn't worth that much. But you know, someone like 796 00:39:29,280 --> 00:39:32,200 Speaker 7: Justin Fields where there's really no experience, no proven experience 797 00:39:32,239 --> 00:39:33,719 Speaker 7: back there and definitely not what he can do with 798 00:39:33,760 --> 00:39:35,960 Speaker 7: his legs, I think it's a seven point drop. 799 00:39:36,200 --> 00:39:38,360 Speaker 3: Yeah, that's where I would have it at as well. 800 00:39:38,640 --> 00:39:41,000 Speaker 3: By the way, Alabama and Ohio State. They've only met 801 00:39:41,040 --> 00:39:45,880 Speaker 3: four other times, never met on one of the school's 802 00:39:45,880 --> 00:39:48,720 Speaker 3: campus sites. I've never met. They've bet first meeting nineteen 803 00:39:48,760 --> 00:39:51,520 Speaker 3: seventy eight Sugar Bowl Alabama won thirty five to six, 804 00:39:51,880 --> 00:39:55,680 Speaker 3: the nineteen eighty six Kickoff Classic, and East Rutherford, Alabama 805 00:39:55,719 --> 00:39:59,200 Speaker 3: won sixteen to ten, and nineteen ninety five Citrus Bowl 806 00:39:59,440 --> 00:40:04,080 Speaker 3: Alabama one twenty four seventeen. And then they meant the 807 00:40:04,120 --> 00:40:08,680 Speaker 3: Collegewall Playoff semi final in twenty fourteen, Ohio State one 808 00:40:08,800 --> 00:40:12,719 Speaker 3: forty two to thirty five. Alabama led that game twenty 809 00:40:12,760 --> 00:40:15,640 Speaker 3: one to twenty at the half. Zeke Elliott was the 810 00:40:15,719 --> 00:40:20,440 Speaker 3: running back. Guess who the quarterback in that game was? 811 00:40:20,600 --> 00:40:21,920 Speaker 3: A backup Cardil Jones. 812 00:40:22,280 --> 00:40:24,440 Speaker 7: Took away my TCU six hundred and thirty to one 813 00:40:24,480 --> 00:40:25,040 Speaker 7: that year. 814 00:40:25,000 --> 00:40:29,399 Speaker 3: YEP cast my Ohio State fifty one. Yeah, So that 815 00:40:29,560 --> 00:40:33,319 Speaker 3: was that Ohio State team. That was Cardil Jones who 816 00:40:33,360 --> 00:40:35,560 Speaker 3: made that start. That was just a game. Zeke went 817 00:40:35,640 --> 00:40:38,400 Speaker 3: nuts twenty carries two hundred and thirty yards. So you 818 00:40:38,440 --> 00:40:41,279 Speaker 3: think Ohio State's gonna have success on offense ultimately. 819 00:40:41,080 --> 00:40:43,840 Speaker 7: Ultimately I do, because they're gonna take advantage of Dylan 820 00:40:43,920 --> 00:40:46,839 Speaker 7: Moses Christian Harris. They're going to attack linebackers. They're going 821 00:40:46,920 --> 00:40:50,920 Speaker 7: to take what Alabama gives them. If Alabama blitzes, Fields 822 00:40:50,920 --> 00:40:52,920 Speaker 7: can go over the top. If they're gonna sit back 823 00:40:52,960 --> 00:40:55,719 Speaker 7: eight and coverage, then Trey Sermon's gonna have his day 824 00:40:55,960 --> 00:40:58,480 Speaker 7: between the zero and ten yards from the line of scrimmage. 825 00:40:58,520 --> 00:41:01,239 Speaker 7: I think Ohio State smart enough and Ryan Day. I'm 826 00:41:01,280 --> 00:41:03,520 Speaker 7: a big believer in Ryan Day. You're not gonna find 827 00:41:03,520 --> 00:41:06,480 Speaker 7: me fading Ohio State too often. And he's going to 828 00:41:06,520 --> 00:41:08,800 Speaker 7: see what Alabama's defense is lined up as and he 829 00:41:08,840 --> 00:41:12,120 Speaker 7: will adjust out Ohio State is going to play. I 830 00:41:12,200 --> 00:41:13,920 Speaker 7: will take what you're gonna give me offense. 831 00:41:14,160 --> 00:41:17,160 Speaker 3: All right, let's talk or how we're attacking this game. 832 00:41:17,200 --> 00:41:19,839 Speaker 3: From a betting perspective. I already said I like the over. 833 00:41:20,440 --> 00:41:22,840 Speaker 3: I've made this line. I think I have it up 834 00:41:22,920 --> 00:41:26,640 Speaker 3: to about six and a half seven isch now because 835 00:41:26,680 --> 00:41:30,280 Speaker 3: of the you know, there is some uncertainty with Fields. 836 00:41:31,040 --> 00:41:34,360 Speaker 3: I threw in a half point there, and there is 837 00:41:34,400 --> 00:41:37,359 Speaker 3: some COVID uncertainty with Ohio State and losing a guy 838 00:41:37,480 --> 00:41:40,799 Speaker 3: like togii Uh who I probably pronounce his name wrong 839 00:41:40,840 --> 00:41:44,960 Speaker 3: again and two stars in the defensive line. That's important, 840 00:41:44,960 --> 00:41:47,600 Speaker 3: maybe another half point, So I've shaded it up a 841 00:41:47,600 --> 00:41:50,760 Speaker 3: little bit. I still have it a touch under seven. 842 00:41:50,880 --> 00:41:52,560 Speaker 3: So at eight, I do see a tad bit of 843 00:41:52,640 --> 00:41:55,040 Speaker 3: value in Ohio State in a game that I think 844 00:41:55,200 --> 00:41:58,240 Speaker 3: will be a shootout. It's you know, you're talking slim 845 00:41:58,239 --> 00:42:00,319 Speaker 3: margins here and it's not you know, one or two points. 846 00:42:00,360 --> 00:42:01,719 Speaker 3: What the hell is that in a game like this? 847 00:42:01,920 --> 00:42:06,440 Speaker 3: So maybe I would get involved with Ohio State live if, 848 00:42:06,880 --> 00:42:09,239 Speaker 3: just like I did against Clemson. If this thing gets 849 00:42:09,320 --> 00:42:11,080 Speaker 3: up to ten and there's a lot of public money 850 00:42:11,080 --> 00:42:14,360 Speaker 3: on Alabama, maybe Waddle gets an announced he's definitely playing 851 00:42:14,440 --> 00:42:16,040 Speaker 3: or something. I think I would take a shot with 852 00:42:16,080 --> 00:42:20,000 Speaker 3: Ohio State there. If not, I'll probably avoid a pregame 853 00:42:20,040 --> 00:42:23,640 Speaker 3: position on the buck eyes. But I do really like 854 00:42:23,680 --> 00:42:25,520 Speaker 3: the over. I already have seventy four and a half 855 00:42:25,719 --> 00:42:29,239 Speaker 3: like that at anything seventy five or below, based on 856 00:42:29,280 --> 00:42:31,839 Speaker 3: how I see this playing out. How about you? How 857 00:42:31,840 --> 00:42:33,920 Speaker 3: are you attacking We'll get the props next, but how 858 00:42:33,960 --> 00:42:37,640 Speaker 3: are you attacking this? If at all? From a betting perspective. 859 00:42:37,239 --> 00:42:39,319 Speaker 7: Yeah, I'm going to take an Alabama team total over 860 00:42:39,400 --> 00:42:41,799 Speaker 7: forty one and a half. Yeah, I know that number 861 00:42:41,880 --> 00:42:44,279 Speaker 7: should We'll see where it goes. I mean, there has 862 00:42:44,320 --> 00:42:47,560 Speaker 7: been money in the market that's driven this down. There 863 00:42:47,640 --> 00:42:50,200 Speaker 7: was an opener somewhere of seventy seven. I saw driven 864 00:42:50,200 --> 00:42:53,560 Speaker 7: down seventy six and a half bet MGM, And I think, really, 865 00:42:53,600 --> 00:42:56,000 Speaker 7: those are just math guys, guys like myself to put 866 00:42:56,040 --> 00:42:58,120 Speaker 7: stats together and say, well, this should really be seventy 867 00:42:58,160 --> 00:43:00,799 Speaker 7: two to seventy three. Yeah, well, I watched these offenses too, 868 00:43:00,840 --> 00:43:02,879 Speaker 7: and I'm telling you this, really, this game could really 869 00:43:02,880 --> 00:43:05,360 Speaker 7: get out of hand really fast. I'm not going to 870 00:43:05,400 --> 00:43:08,160 Speaker 7: be I held an under and so many games this 871 00:43:08,239 --> 00:43:11,240 Speaker 7: year they've got you know, you're not going out. 872 00:43:11,040 --> 00:43:12,120 Speaker 3: Of the season with an under. 873 00:43:12,560 --> 00:43:16,880 Speaker 2: The ten unders, this is going to be awful. 874 00:43:17,360 --> 00:43:19,319 Speaker 7: I'm not going out this season on an under. I'm 875 00:43:19,320 --> 00:43:21,920 Speaker 7: taking an Alabama team total over forty one and a half. 876 00:43:22,239 --> 00:43:25,239 Speaker 7: You know, I think the hesitation with taking the full 877 00:43:25,280 --> 00:43:28,400 Speaker 7: game over because we're recording this on a Thursday. Friday, 878 00:43:28,520 --> 00:43:32,800 Speaker 7: Ohio State's injury report officially comes out I think tomorrow afternoon, 879 00:43:33,160 --> 00:43:36,399 Speaker 7: and the final COVID tests I believe if I read 880 00:43:36,800 --> 00:43:39,640 Speaker 7: or tomorrow afternoon also on Friday, so we're going to 881 00:43:39,719 --> 00:43:43,040 Speaker 7: know who's departing for Miami by Friday. Night around six 882 00:43:43,120 --> 00:43:46,200 Speaker 7: seven o'clock. So if there's some sort of news leak 883 00:43:46,239 --> 00:43:49,040 Speaker 7: about who's healthy, who's not, who has COVID who doesn't, 884 00:43:49,280 --> 00:43:52,120 Speaker 7: I would like to have all that information. I would 885 00:43:52,120 --> 00:43:53,759 Speaker 7: like to know that Ohio State's going to be able 886 00:43:53,800 --> 00:43:55,759 Speaker 7: to do their part, justin Bill's being able to do 887 00:43:55,800 --> 00:43:58,759 Speaker 7: their part. If you know the defensive line does have 888 00:43:58,880 --> 00:44:01,480 Speaker 7: COVID nineteen and Tyre Smith is not gonna be there, 889 00:44:01,920 --> 00:44:04,839 Speaker 7: that's great for the over two. So it's same thing 890 00:44:04,920 --> 00:44:06,840 Speaker 7: with the point spread. This is a game that I 891 00:44:06,920 --> 00:44:10,320 Speaker 7: make four and a half, so I think eight. Listen, 892 00:44:10,400 --> 00:44:14,439 Speaker 7: it's an inflated tax. And you know the thing is 893 00:44:14,440 --> 00:44:18,360 Speaker 7: is it's just not this game. It's wild Card weekend. 894 00:44:18,880 --> 00:44:21,279 Speaker 7: Look at the game on Saturday night, and look at 895 00:44:21,280 --> 00:44:24,960 Speaker 7: the game on Sunday night. You have Pittsburgh favored huge 896 00:44:25,000 --> 00:44:29,760 Speaker 7: over COVID ridden Cleveland. On Sunday you have Tampa favored 897 00:44:29,880 --> 00:44:33,080 Speaker 7: huge over I'm not really sure how they're gonna score 898 00:44:33,680 --> 00:44:38,560 Speaker 7: Washington Redskins. And I think what Alabama turns into is 899 00:44:38,600 --> 00:44:41,759 Speaker 7: a huge parlay piece for a lot of people. So 900 00:44:41,920 --> 00:44:45,520 Speaker 7: I think that we can benefit on that by waiting 901 00:44:45,520 --> 00:44:48,160 Speaker 7: on Ohio State and possibly see that I saw nine 902 00:44:48,160 --> 00:44:50,239 Speaker 7: today in the market. I think there's gonna be a 903 00:44:50,320 --> 00:44:51,880 Speaker 7: nine and a half that pops at some point. 904 00:44:52,680 --> 00:44:55,000 Speaker 3: Yeah, folks can have a little ton of exposure on Albami. 905 00:44:55,280 --> 00:44:57,080 Speaker 3: They're gonna a certain way. 906 00:44:57,239 --> 00:45:00,680 Speaker 7: They're gonna need Ohio States so bad. And the other 907 00:45:00,760 --> 00:45:04,480 Speaker 7: thing is that with Ohio State, I also know that 908 00:45:05,000 --> 00:45:08,920 Speaker 7: the Buckeyes are have the highest scoring differential of any 909 00:45:09,000 --> 00:45:12,000 Speaker 7: team in the nation in the second quarter. And when 910 00:45:12,040 --> 00:45:14,719 Speaker 7: I talked about Ryan Day owning the middle eight, he 911 00:45:14,840 --> 00:45:17,160 Speaker 7: really owns the last four minutes of the second quarter. 912 00:45:17,920 --> 00:45:20,720 Speaker 7: So I will get a bet down on Ohio State 913 00:45:20,880 --> 00:45:24,640 Speaker 7: at some point between now and kick. If there's a 914 00:45:24,719 --> 00:45:27,200 Speaker 7: nine and a half that's juiced correctly and I can get, 915 00:45:27,239 --> 00:45:30,080 Speaker 7: you know, scrape a ten for one fifteen, let's do it. 916 00:45:31,160 --> 00:45:32,960 Speaker 7: So there's no reason for me to rush. I don't 917 00:45:33,000 --> 00:45:34,640 Speaker 7: want seven and a half. If I'm going to go 918 00:45:34,680 --> 00:45:37,279 Speaker 7: to overtime, I want the eight. But Ohio State is 919 00:45:37,280 --> 00:45:40,440 Speaker 7: the play. Alabama team total over forty one half is 920 00:45:40,480 --> 00:45:43,120 Speaker 7: a play. And then there's just a nice list of 921 00:45:43,160 --> 00:45:45,040 Speaker 7: props that will be in the article that we can 922 00:45:45,040 --> 00:45:47,720 Speaker 7: discuss right now that I can't wait to get into. 923 00:45:47,760 --> 00:45:51,239 Speaker 7: But I'll stress this enough this is a national championship game. 924 00:45:51,239 --> 00:45:53,480 Speaker 7: That doesn't mean I'm going to bet my entire role 925 00:45:53,560 --> 00:45:56,120 Speaker 7: or make it anything bigger than usual. My prop bets 926 00:45:56,120 --> 00:45:58,600 Speaker 7: are going to be the same size as you know, 927 00:45:58,640 --> 00:46:01,680 Speaker 7: my Ohio State and my I Alabama team total over all. 928 00:46:01,760 --> 00:46:04,520 Speaker 3: Right, Well, that's a good transition. Let's get to props. 929 00:46:05,200 --> 00:46:08,360 Speaker 3: We will have content up on Action NETWORKAP and Actionnework 930 00:46:08,400 --> 00:46:11,560 Speaker 3: dot Com on Monday when this market, when these markets 931 00:46:11,560 --> 00:46:14,319 Speaker 3: are open, and a little bit more. But I was 932 00:46:14,320 --> 00:46:16,600 Speaker 3: glad to hear we're on the same page here with 933 00:46:16,640 --> 00:46:19,440 Speaker 3: Ohio State, especially if being get ten and that'll be 934 00:46:19,560 --> 00:46:22,239 Speaker 3: you know, the exposure to books, to make a good point, 935 00:46:22,280 --> 00:46:24,120 Speaker 3: could be very high if all the favorites in the 936 00:46:24,200 --> 00:46:26,680 Speaker 3: NFL win this weekend and I'm on the over and 937 00:46:26,719 --> 00:46:30,279 Speaker 3: then from a PROPS perspective, without going super deep to 938 00:46:30,320 --> 00:46:32,720 Speaker 3: find my best ones, I will tweet them all content 939 00:46:32,760 --> 00:46:36,359 Speaker 3: with around them on Monday and we'll have the best 940 00:46:36,360 --> 00:46:38,960 Speaker 3: bets file as well. I was happy to hear that 941 00:46:39,000 --> 00:46:41,120 Speaker 3: you wanted to target the tight ends for both teams, 942 00:46:41,160 --> 00:46:43,960 Speaker 3: because that's digging into this game. Prepared for this podcast, 943 00:46:44,000 --> 00:46:46,799 Speaker 3: that's basically where I wanted to go as well. Talked 944 00:46:46,840 --> 00:46:50,160 Speaker 3: about that anything else just on the surface without since 945 00:46:50,200 --> 00:46:52,480 Speaker 3: we don't have specific numbers yet that you want to 946 00:46:52,480 --> 00:46:53,560 Speaker 3: mention for a prop. 947 00:46:53,760 --> 00:46:56,560 Speaker 7: Yeah, definitely. I mean with the increased usage of twelve 948 00:46:56,640 --> 00:46:59,600 Speaker 7: personnel on both sides, I think that you have to 949 00:46:59,640 --> 00:47:02,560 Speaker 7: target the tight ends. Jalen Wadel coming back should make 950 00:47:02,600 --> 00:47:05,359 Speaker 7: some yardage and some total receptions go down a little bit. 951 00:47:05,760 --> 00:47:07,719 Speaker 7: But the first one, I'll go ahead and get over 952 00:47:07,719 --> 00:47:10,080 Speaker 7: to the tight end ones. I'll start with. If you 953 00:47:10,120 --> 00:47:13,680 Speaker 7: look at Ohio State, Trey Sermon is going to take in, 954 00:47:14,320 --> 00:47:18,320 Speaker 7: you know, the line's share of attempts in the red zone, 955 00:47:18,760 --> 00:47:22,480 Speaker 7: and that's fine, But when it comes to the tight ends, 956 00:47:22,719 --> 00:47:24,960 Speaker 7: who scored the second and third touchdown in that game 957 00:47:25,239 --> 00:47:28,839 Speaker 7: in the Sugar Bowl, Luke Ferrell, Jeremy Rucker. So I 958 00:47:28,920 --> 00:47:31,319 Speaker 7: expect their numbers if I can get them now, Like 959 00:47:31,360 --> 00:47:33,920 Speaker 7: we said, we're recording. We haven't seen these numbers yet. 960 00:47:34,400 --> 00:47:37,880 Speaker 7: But for first touchdown, I'm centering in on, you know, 961 00:47:37,920 --> 00:47:40,719 Speaker 7: putting a quarter or a half unit out on Luke 962 00:47:40,760 --> 00:47:43,680 Speaker 7: Farrell first touchdown, hopefully thirty to one or better, Jeremy 963 00:47:43,719 --> 00:47:47,360 Speaker 7: ruckerd first touchdown, hopefully thirty to one or better. Now, 964 00:47:47,600 --> 00:47:50,480 Speaker 7: if it's out there and you can find it split 965 00:47:50,560 --> 00:47:54,360 Speaker 7: those in half if it's Ohio State's first touchdown, So 966 00:47:54,400 --> 00:47:57,120 Speaker 7: you'd look at Jeremy Rucker or Luke Ferrell fifteen to 967 00:47:57,160 --> 00:48:00,399 Speaker 7: one for first TD props. As far as the other 968 00:48:00,440 --> 00:48:02,960 Speaker 7: side goes, I'm ready to fire on Jealil Billingsley over 969 00:48:03,080 --> 00:48:06,239 Speaker 7: number of receptions. The yards have not really been there. 970 00:48:06,239 --> 00:48:09,400 Speaker 7: I mean he's been a you know, he's he's been 971 00:48:09,480 --> 00:48:12,440 Speaker 7: used on third downs, he's been used at the goal line. 972 00:48:13,160 --> 00:48:15,760 Speaker 7: It's not like JELLEL. Billingsley is a kid that catches 973 00:48:15,760 --> 00:48:18,439 Speaker 7: the ball and he has like twenty acts. That's not him. 974 00:48:18,920 --> 00:48:21,439 Speaker 7: But what he can do is on money downs, which 975 00:48:21,480 --> 00:48:25,279 Speaker 7: is red zone, third down situations, four down situations. He's 976 00:48:25,320 --> 00:48:27,880 Speaker 7: gonna get targeted. He had four targets in the semi final. 977 00:48:28,080 --> 00:48:31,400 Speaker 7: I'm looking for Jalil Billingsley over two receptions, two and 978 00:48:31,440 --> 00:48:34,279 Speaker 7: a half receptions, I'll still buy it. Three that's when 979 00:48:34,280 --> 00:48:36,440 Speaker 7: it gets a little bit tight, maybe a bet and 980 00:48:36,560 --> 00:48:38,680 Speaker 7: three it really starts to lose its value. But Jalil 981 00:48:38,719 --> 00:48:42,840 Speaker 7: Billingsley over two and a half receptions, love it completely? Agree? 982 00:48:43,360 --> 00:48:45,040 Speaker 3: Anything else want to mention for props? 983 00:48:45,280 --> 00:48:48,279 Speaker 7: Yeah, a couple of things like Sean Wayne coming out 984 00:48:48,280 --> 00:48:50,439 Speaker 7: and saying that I want Devanta Smith one on one 985 00:48:50,480 --> 00:48:54,000 Speaker 7: man to man. That's great, that's fine. It's not the 986 00:48:54,080 --> 00:48:56,640 Speaker 7: reason I made this bet. There are other reasons to 987 00:48:56,680 --> 00:48:59,320 Speaker 7: suggest that DeVonta Smith is going to have his way. 988 00:49:00,000 --> 00:49:01,560 Speaker 7: They're going to move him all around the field. He's 989 00:49:01,600 --> 00:49:03,400 Speaker 7: going to be able to take advantage of the secondary. 990 00:49:04,239 --> 00:49:06,919 Speaker 7: He has had over half of his games, he's had 991 00:49:07,000 --> 00:49:09,160 Speaker 7: a reception of over forty yards. He's had a lot 992 00:49:09,160 --> 00:49:12,160 Speaker 7: of fifties and a sixty in there. I like DeVonta 993 00:49:12,200 --> 00:49:17,080 Speaker 7: Smith's longest receiving, longest single reception to go over. If 994 00:49:17,160 --> 00:49:19,320 Speaker 7: you can get that in the in the low forties, 995 00:49:19,360 --> 00:49:21,719 Speaker 7: that would be a good bet. But I think one 996 00:49:21,760 --> 00:49:24,359 Speaker 7: that I'm going to hammer even bigger than you know. 997 00:49:24,480 --> 00:49:28,160 Speaker 7: That one is Trey Sermon, not Trey Sermon, rushing, not 998 00:49:28,320 --> 00:49:32,239 Speaker 7: Trey Sermon. You know, first touchdown, Trey Sermon over to 999 00:49:32,520 --> 00:49:36,800 Speaker 7: receipt receptions. That is perfect. Like I said, last two games, 1000 00:49:37,080 --> 00:49:39,640 Speaker 7: these odds makers, if they if they look at Trey 1001 00:49:39,680 --> 00:49:43,000 Speaker 7: Sermon's total receptions for the season and like divide it 1002 00:49:43,080 --> 00:49:45,760 Speaker 7: by the number of games that he's played, they're missing 1003 00:49:45,840 --> 00:49:49,120 Speaker 7: the picture, completely missing because he's gotten ten targets over 1004 00:49:49,160 --> 00:49:51,600 Speaker 7: the last two games. He's had fifteen the entire season. 1005 00:49:51,920 --> 00:49:54,760 Speaker 7: So if they come out with something, you know, recept 1006 00:49:54,840 --> 00:49:57,680 Speaker 7: I mean reception wise, it's really low, they're doing a 1007 00:49:57,680 --> 00:50:00,160 Speaker 7: disservice to what Ohio State's game plan has been the 1008 00:50:00,200 --> 00:50:02,520 Speaker 7: last couple of years or last couple of games. So 1009 00:50:02,719 --> 00:50:07,320 Speaker 7: Trey Sermon over two receptions, Trey Sermon over twenty receiving yards, 1010 00:50:07,680 --> 00:50:11,440 Speaker 7: They're gonna bubble screen him, and he is gonna crash 1011 00:50:11,520 --> 00:50:13,960 Speaker 7: down on that linebacker course so hard. It's gonna be 1012 00:50:13,960 --> 00:50:16,680 Speaker 7: a big part of the game plan. I like Sermon's 1013 00:50:17,120 --> 00:50:20,839 Speaker 7: receiving yards not so much. I believe his rushing yards 1014 00:50:20,840 --> 00:50:22,680 Speaker 7: are probably gonna get blown out of the water. I 1015 00:50:22,680 --> 00:50:25,040 Speaker 7: imagine odds makers are gonna have that number up around 1016 00:50:25,040 --> 00:50:28,200 Speaker 7: in the one forties, one thirties, one twenties. I believe 1017 00:50:28,480 --> 00:50:30,680 Speaker 7: his rushing prop was one twenty five and a half 1018 00:50:31,000 --> 00:50:33,640 Speaker 7: in the playoff against Clemson and it ended on one 1019 00:50:33,680 --> 00:50:36,200 Speaker 7: twenty five. I'm gonna stick away, stay away from that. 1020 00:50:36,280 --> 00:50:39,320 Speaker 7: I would rather focus on his receptions and his number 1021 00:50:39,400 --> 00:50:40,520 Speaker 7: of receiving yards. 1022 00:50:40,760 --> 00:50:43,360 Speaker 3: What do you think longest reception for Metchi will be? 1023 00:50:43,760 --> 00:50:46,560 Speaker 7: Yeah, Matt I mentioned Mechi in the article on action, 1024 00:50:47,400 --> 00:50:50,080 Speaker 7: Bechi is somebody I'm actually staying away from for some reason. 1025 00:50:50,120 --> 00:50:52,400 Speaker 7: His targets have gone way down, and it's not like 1026 00:50:52,440 --> 00:50:55,760 Speaker 7: there's been an increase. DeVonta Smith has had a pretty 1027 00:50:56,280 --> 00:51:00,200 Speaker 7: stable number of targets from seven to twelve, you know, 1028 00:51:00,280 --> 00:51:01,799 Speaker 7: is the number that he gets looked at. There was 1029 00:51:01,800 --> 00:51:03,879 Speaker 7: one game where I think he just flat out took off. 1030 00:51:03,920 --> 00:51:05,080 Speaker 7: I think they wanted to give him a week of 1031 00:51:05,160 --> 00:51:08,080 Speaker 7: rest and Mechi still was hanging around in the low 1032 00:51:08,200 --> 00:51:09,839 Speaker 7: you know, fives or fours, and I think he had 1033 00:51:09,840 --> 00:51:12,640 Speaker 7: two targets in this past game. Now he's doing an 1034 00:51:12,640 --> 00:51:14,960 Speaker 7: excellent job blocking downfield. I don't know if that's part 1035 00:51:14,960 --> 00:51:17,200 Speaker 7: of the handicap, but John Metchi is like a great blocker, 1036 00:51:18,480 --> 00:51:21,200 Speaker 7: and so I'm not sure what's going on, But his 1037 00:51:21,360 --> 00:51:25,040 Speaker 7: number of looks from the middle of the season to now, 1038 00:51:25,440 --> 00:51:28,280 Speaker 7: they've disappeared. Now let's say best case scenario. 1039 00:51:28,520 --> 00:51:30,600 Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree with you, but I think that and 1040 00:51:30,600 --> 00:51:32,279 Speaker 3: that's why I wanted to target the tight ends. I 1041 00:51:32,280 --> 00:51:34,160 Speaker 3: think you're gonna be undervalued in the pop market. But 1042 00:51:34,640 --> 00:51:36,600 Speaker 3: the one thing that I was potentially looking at with 1043 00:51:36,600 --> 00:51:40,440 Speaker 3: Mechi's just over longest reception. Yeah, and he's had I 1044 00:51:40,480 --> 00:51:43,200 Speaker 3: think five or idiot a forty yard reception against Notre Dame. 1045 00:51:43,840 --> 00:51:47,080 Speaker 3: I just think there's gonna be one play where Smith 1046 00:51:47,160 --> 00:51:50,480 Speaker 3: is getting so much attention from the safety and he's 1047 00:51:50,480 --> 00:51:53,360 Speaker 3: going to get behind the defense and you're going to 1048 00:51:53,400 --> 00:51:56,080 Speaker 3: see You're going to see a long touchdown to Mechi. 1049 00:51:56,760 --> 00:51:59,360 Speaker 7: Yeah, I think a Mechi over single reception. Yeah. I 1050 00:51:59,360 --> 00:52:02,520 Speaker 7: wouldn't go for the longest reception ye. Yeah, total number 1051 00:52:02,520 --> 00:52:04,840 Speaker 7: of catches or yards. I'd stay away from that. And 1052 00:52:04,920 --> 00:52:06,920 Speaker 7: I know that the theme of all these props has 1053 00:52:06,920 --> 00:52:09,920 Speaker 7: been over. So let's talk about one of the unders 1054 00:52:09,960 --> 00:52:13,160 Speaker 7: that I do like, and that's somebody whose targets have 1055 00:52:13,280 --> 00:52:16,520 Speaker 7: gone down immensely. And when Chris Alave came back, it's 1056 00:52:16,560 --> 00:52:20,879 Speaker 7: like Garrett Wilson didn't even exist. So Garrett Wilson, I 1057 00:52:20,920 --> 00:52:25,440 Speaker 7: think because there are three corners that can shut you 1058 00:52:25,560 --> 00:52:29,719 Speaker 7: down and because of their average PBUs per game, I 1059 00:52:29,760 --> 00:52:31,960 Speaker 7: don't like Garrett Wilson catching a lot of balls in this. 1060 00:52:32,280 --> 00:52:34,719 Speaker 7: So I'm going Garrett Wilson under the total receiving yards 1061 00:52:34,719 --> 00:52:38,280 Speaker 7: and Garrett Wilson under if there's a touchdown prop out there, 1062 00:52:38,719 --> 00:52:41,680 Speaker 7: or if his touchdown is set it half. I would 1063 00:52:41,719 --> 00:52:44,560 Speaker 7: take an under because I think Garrett Wilson is going 1064 00:52:44,640 --> 00:52:45,920 Speaker 7: to get a lot of looks. I think he's going 1065 00:52:46,000 --> 00:52:48,280 Speaker 7: to get locked down, and you know, I think Fields 1066 00:52:48,480 --> 00:52:50,440 Speaker 7: would force it to a labbe, but he doesn't do 1067 00:52:50,480 --> 00:52:52,200 Speaker 7: that a lot with Garrett Wilson. Garrett Wilson is not 1068 00:52:52,239 --> 00:52:54,920 Speaker 7: the first look for Justin Fields. I think the tight 1069 00:52:55,000 --> 00:52:57,440 Speaker 7: ends are getting a little bit more exposure. So if 1070 00:52:57,440 --> 00:52:59,120 Speaker 7: there's an under to play on a wide receiver, I 1071 00:52:59,120 --> 00:53:00,000 Speaker 7: think it's Garrett Wilson. 1072 00:53:00,480 --> 00:53:04,520 Speaker 3: All right. There you have it as deep of a 1073 00:53:04,680 --> 00:53:08,360 Speaker 3: dive on the college ball National Championship as you'll find 1074 00:53:08,440 --> 00:53:11,680 Speaker 3: on any podcast. Appreciate all of you listening. Hopefully we 1075 00:53:11,680 --> 00:53:13,480 Speaker 3: can bring you more winners this Bold season. But we're 1076 00:53:13,520 --> 00:53:16,440 Speaker 3: not done just yet. We still have some business to 1077 00:53:16,520 --> 00:53:21,000 Speaker 3: attend to. We're going to start with some listener appreciation. 1078 00:53:31,640 --> 00:53:34,160 Speaker 2: Oh yeah, let's do this. 1079 00:53:34,920 --> 00:53:40,160 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast Award show Spectacular. We 1080 00:53:40,320 --> 00:53:47,280 Speaker 1: now introduce two guys you've called ms and all season long, 1081 00:53:48,080 --> 00:53:51,520 Speaker 1: your hosts for the show, Stucky and Colin Wilson. 1082 00:53:54,880 --> 00:53:58,600 Speaker 3: Okay, so it's time for our end of the season awards. 1083 00:53:59,000 --> 00:54:03,600 Speaker 3: First up, the highly anticipated Action Network Hotline Caller of 1084 00:54:03,719 --> 00:54:06,560 Speaker 3: the year. All right, So we had some good candidates here. 1085 00:54:06,600 --> 00:54:11,680 Speaker 3: We had John from Long Island, our most consistently exasperated caller, 1086 00:54:12,920 --> 00:54:17,239 Speaker 3: Martin from Chicago, spokesman for Buckeye Nation. I think he 1087 00:54:17,280 --> 00:54:20,680 Speaker 3: wrote a song for me as well. Juice from Rochester, 1088 00:54:21,520 --> 00:54:25,440 Speaker 3: whose epic Jim Harball rant will live forever in infamy. 1089 00:54:27,080 --> 00:54:32,239 Speaker 3: Tyler from Corpus Christie balancing bartending with degenerate, gambling like 1090 00:54:32,360 --> 00:54:37,239 Speaker 3: a pro and saying he loves me and getting mad 1091 00:54:37,280 --> 00:54:41,840 Speaker 3: at Colin the other week. And the honorary Lifetime Achievement 1092 00:54:41,920 --> 00:54:47,760 Speaker 3: award goes to Jason from Alposso. Yes, Passo aposto, hats 1093 00:54:47,760 --> 00:54:52,080 Speaker 3: off to Minor Nation as always, but one caller stood 1094 00:54:52,080 --> 00:54:55,120 Speaker 3: out above all the rest this season. Drum roll please, 1095 00:54:55,840 --> 00:55:00,400 Speaker 3: and the winner is you might have guessed it, Matt 1096 00:55:00,920 --> 00:55:05,360 Speaker 3: from Ottawa, leader of the Coastal Caroline a Bandwagon official 1097 00:55:05,440 --> 00:55:10,319 Speaker 3: chant caller and the creator of the Triple C Dynasty. 1098 00:55:10,920 --> 00:55:18,160 Speaker 3: Roll fucking shawnce Baby. Okay, congrats Matt, love you on Twitter. 1099 00:55:18,440 --> 00:55:21,759 Speaker 3: Still sad your chance couldn't get home of victory for 1100 00:55:21,880 --> 00:55:24,319 Speaker 3: our middle in the Bowl, but what a season for 1101 00:55:24,440 --> 00:55:27,880 Speaker 3: the Chance and Matt from Ottawa. 1102 00:55:27,960 --> 00:55:30,520 Speaker 2: Long live the Triple ce Dynasty. 1103 00:55:31,000 --> 00:55:32,760 Speaker 3: I can't wait to see what you have in store 1104 00:55:32,840 --> 00:55:33,319 Speaker 3: next year. 1105 00:55:34,800 --> 00:55:36,080 Speaker 7: Dynasty is not going away. 1106 00:55:36,280 --> 00:55:39,759 Speaker 3: Appreciate everyone who called under the voicemail all season. And 1107 00:55:39,800 --> 00:55:42,480 Speaker 3: by the way, we have college Basketball podcast starting next week, 1108 00:55:42,840 --> 00:55:46,520 Speaker 3: so the voicemail's not going anywhere, and college basketball beats 1109 00:55:46,640 --> 00:55:48,359 Speaker 3: are as bad as they can get, so I'm sure 1110 00:55:48,360 --> 00:55:50,360 Speaker 3: we're gonna be hearing from a lot of you all right. 1111 00:55:50,400 --> 00:55:52,520 Speaker 3: Before we conclude the voice fail portion of the award show, 1112 00:55:52,520 --> 00:55:55,319 Speaker 3: we also have to recognize our greatest caller of all 1113 00:55:55,320 --> 00:55:58,839 Speaker 3: time so that new listeners may enjoy him if they 1114 00:55:58,880 --> 00:56:01,520 Speaker 3: have never heard. Devin from Alabama, who called the hotline 1115 00:56:01,560 --> 00:56:05,280 Speaker 3: on September twenty one, twenty eighteen, after Lovey Smith's Illinois 1116 00:56:05,280 --> 00:56:07,600 Speaker 3: team get up thirty five unanswered points in the fourth 1117 00:56:07,680 --> 00:56:11,600 Speaker 3: quarter to blow an unblowable cover against Penn State. 1118 00:56:13,600 --> 00:56:18,480 Speaker 6: I'm Devin in Alabama, Champagne Oloy, love me Smith. 1119 00:56:19,160 --> 00:56:21,640 Speaker 7: His name should be Haiti Smith from now on. 1120 00:56:23,440 --> 00:56:26,920 Speaker 6: How you go from four down to. 1121 00:56:27,320 --> 00:56:30,960 Speaker 5: Ninety points down with a five minutes. 1122 00:56:30,719 --> 00:56:37,040 Speaker 6: Of the game, Please love me Smith, Champagne Alloy and 1123 00:56:37,120 --> 00:56:41,799 Speaker 6: all the club like heapens to freaking Chicago ends up 1124 00:56:42,080 --> 00:56:47,560 Speaker 6: happening in Champagne so unbelievable. 1125 00:56:48,000 --> 00:56:49,080 Speaker 3: I love it is now gone. 1126 00:56:49,239 --> 00:56:50,239 Speaker 7: That was a Friday night game. 1127 00:56:50,239 --> 00:56:51,200 Speaker 3: I will know Friday Night. 1128 00:56:51,520 --> 00:56:53,600 Speaker 7: I will never forget that game as long as I've lived. 1129 00:56:53,600 --> 00:56:55,160 Speaker 7: That was amazing breakdown. 1130 00:56:55,280 --> 00:56:57,680 Speaker 3: Yeah uh. And finally, before we get out of here 1131 00:56:57,840 --> 00:57:01,640 Speaker 3: and close up our final collegege football, it makes me sad. 1132 00:57:01,960 --> 00:57:07,080 Speaker 3: Final college football betting preview episode of the year with 1133 00:57:07,200 --> 00:57:09,920 Speaker 3: college basketball coming next week. With the Final College Football, 1134 00:57:10,120 --> 00:57:13,759 Speaker 3: we do have to get to the presentation of the 1135 00:57:13,800 --> 00:57:17,760 Speaker 3: most hollowed and prestigious award in all of sports betting, 1136 00:57:18,120 --> 00:57:23,640 Speaker 3: the third annual presentation of the Gambling Heisman Trophy, presented 1137 00:57:23,680 --> 00:57:27,240 Speaker 3: annually by the Action Network Gambling Heisman Trust. 1138 00:57:28,200 --> 00:57:33,560 Speaker 1: And now the presentation of the Gambling Heisman Trophy, awarded 1139 00:57:33,600 --> 00:57:37,960 Speaker 1: to the most outstanding Division IE player who's athletic excellence 1140 00:57:38,120 --> 00:57:41,680 Speaker 1: best enabled the pursuit of monetary gain through the art 1141 00:57:41,840 --> 00:57:44,400 Speaker 1: and science of wagering on college football. 1142 00:57:46,000 --> 00:57:49,920 Speaker 3: We first need to honor our past recipients. Twenty eighteen 1143 00:57:50,240 --> 00:57:55,959 Speaker 3: Trevor Lawrence, Clemson covering machine. He took my money quite 1144 00:57:55,960 --> 00:58:00,480 Speaker 3: a few times. Twenty nineteen Lyn Bowden, Junior, Kentucky, amazing 1145 00:58:00,520 --> 00:58:02,600 Speaker 3: some of the covers he was able to get taking 1146 00:58:02,600 --> 00:58:06,680 Speaker 3: over at quarterback, leading receiver, leading rusher. Kentucky was great 1147 00:58:06,680 --> 00:58:10,600 Speaker 3: against the spread that year. Many qualified finalists this year. 1148 00:58:11,000 --> 00:58:14,800 Speaker 3: I'll let Colin argue for one that I'm going to 1149 00:58:14,880 --> 00:58:17,880 Speaker 3: turn down, and I'll give the reason why. But it 1150 00:58:17,920 --> 00:58:21,960 Speaker 3: is a very qualified candidate. Colin, you're who is your nominee. 1151 00:58:22,120 --> 00:58:24,000 Speaker 7: Well, before I get into my nominee, I want to 1152 00:58:24,000 --> 00:58:28,600 Speaker 7: give a shout out to some contenders. Hojmlik Williams was 1153 00:58:28,760 --> 00:58:31,280 Speaker 7: we rode Campbell, my homes, my homes, my homes. We 1154 00:58:31,400 --> 00:58:33,800 Speaker 7: rode Campbell so hard through their first three covers. 1155 00:58:34,360 --> 00:58:43,840 Speaker 4: But Campbell University, Campbell's from Foy's Creek, North Carolina. 1156 00:58:44,360 --> 00:58:46,680 Speaker 2: Check it out, you know. 1157 00:58:46,720 --> 00:58:51,040 Speaker 7: Against Georgia Southern Coastal, it was just becoming automatic. And 1158 00:58:51,040 --> 00:58:53,800 Speaker 7: it was because of hoj Malik Williams, and so I 1159 00:58:53,800 --> 00:58:55,720 Speaker 7: want to give a shout out to him. Also, I 1160 00:58:55,720 --> 00:58:58,680 Speaker 7: have to give a shout out to my Justin bieber 1161 00:58:58,800 --> 00:59:03,280 Speaker 7: T shirt wearing former razorback quarterback that Chad Morris loved. 1162 00:59:03,840 --> 00:59:07,480 Speaker 7: Nick Starkle found himself a home in San Jose State. 1163 00:59:07,520 --> 00:59:09,760 Speaker 7: San Jose State this year went six to one and 1164 00:59:09,880 --> 00:59:13,080 Speaker 7: one against the spread. Amazing turnaround for those guys, and 1165 00:59:13,120 --> 00:59:16,360 Speaker 7: I'm glad Starkle had such a productive season, but truth 1166 00:59:16,440 --> 00:59:19,479 Speaker 7: be told, with that team, the defense had a big 1167 00:59:19,520 --> 00:59:22,120 Speaker 7: part to do with their against the spread record. So 1168 00:59:22,160 --> 00:59:25,160 Speaker 7: I passed on Starkle Indiana. If you look at the 1169 00:59:25,200 --> 00:59:27,400 Speaker 7: against the spread record, seven to one against the spread 1170 00:59:27,440 --> 00:59:31,880 Speaker 7: this year. But Michael Pennocks junior greatest photo finish of 1171 00:59:31,920 --> 00:59:34,320 Speaker 7: the year, he didn't play the entire season, so I 1172 00:59:34,360 --> 00:59:38,400 Speaker 7: didn't give him any props for this award. I'm going 1173 00:59:38,480 --> 00:59:43,160 Speaker 7: with the best defensive player in college football, a guy 1174 00:59:43,840 --> 00:59:46,840 Speaker 7: that covered a game all by himself, and that would 1175 00:59:46,880 --> 00:59:49,640 Speaker 7: be Zavian Collins of Tulsa. Not only is the a 1176 00:59:49,640 --> 00:59:52,200 Speaker 7: one man wrecking crew when it comes to the rush, 1177 00:59:52,360 --> 00:59:56,520 Speaker 7: when it comes to defending the pass. Tulsa came from 1178 00:59:56,600 --> 01:00:00,000 Speaker 7: the depths of a black hole with a new defensive 1179 01:00:00,080 --> 01:00:02,560 Speaker 7: coordinator in a new scheme two years ago. And Xavon 1180 01:00:02,640 --> 01:00:06,640 Speaker 7: Collins now leads this team with the worst offense in 1181 01:00:06,840 --> 01:00:09,400 Speaker 7: FBS one of the war. I mean, you can't see 1182 01:00:09,440 --> 01:00:12,120 Speaker 7: anything in the stats and supports this team. They went 1183 01:00:12,240 --> 01:00:15,600 Speaker 7: seven and two against the spread this year. And Xavon Collins, 1184 01:00:15,640 --> 01:00:19,800 Speaker 7: if you need any kind of you know, any kind 1185 01:00:19,840 --> 01:00:23,880 Speaker 7: of video, just checked the tape on Tulsa Tulane, a 1186 01:00:23,960 --> 01:00:27,440 Speaker 7: game in which Tulsa was never covering and Tulane betters 1187 01:00:27,480 --> 01:00:33,040 Speaker 7: felt completely safe until he returned the game winning points 1188 01:00:33,520 --> 01:00:39,080 Speaker 7: covering final play in overtime for Tulsa Tulane by himself 1189 01:00:39,400 --> 01:00:41,840 Speaker 7: broke a lot of hearts and put a lot of 1190 01:00:41,840 --> 01:00:45,800 Speaker 7: tickets in a waste basket that night. Zavon Collins, University 1191 01:00:45,840 --> 01:00:48,080 Speaker 7: of Tulsa. That's my candidate, all. 1192 01:00:48,080 --> 01:00:53,000 Speaker 3: Right, well, a worthy candidate. And the Pennix that was awesome. 1193 01:00:53,200 --> 01:00:54,800 Speaker 3: I had some Indiana money line. That was one of 1194 01:00:54,800 --> 01:00:56,720 Speaker 3: the highlights of the year for me. Oh and that 1195 01:00:57,160 --> 01:00:59,200 Speaker 3: I hit the round robin, my round robin that day 1196 01:00:59,680 --> 01:01:02,440 Speaker 3: with like seventeen seven dogs that won by like a 1197 01:01:02,520 --> 01:01:04,960 Speaker 3: total of seven points. To shout out to Penix. But 1198 01:01:04,960 --> 01:01:07,040 Speaker 3: I agree he didn't play the whole year, your boys, Stark. 1199 01:01:07,200 --> 01:01:09,160 Speaker 3: He didn't even play every down like you. There was 1200 01:01:09,280 --> 01:01:12,000 Speaker 3: Nash was playing some as well. But here's the thing 1201 01:01:12,280 --> 01:01:15,840 Speaker 3: you said it you disqualified Collins yourself. He didn't play 1202 01:01:15,920 --> 01:01:18,280 Speaker 3: every game this year. And look I had him when 1203 01:01:18,280 --> 01:01:22,480 Speaker 3: they had an enormous comeback against SMU and he sealed 1204 01:01:22,520 --> 01:01:24,840 Speaker 3: it with an interception. He was amazing. Best linebacker wer 1205 01:01:24,840 --> 01:01:27,480 Speaker 3: the New Jersey best linebacker, but now a best linebacker 1206 01:01:27,480 --> 01:01:30,280 Speaker 3: in college football this year, and that I actually pushed 1207 01:01:30,280 --> 01:01:33,160 Speaker 3: that Tulane and brings me nightmares. But I'm not gonna 1208 01:01:33,160 --> 01:01:35,640 Speaker 3: hold that against him. But he didn't play in the 1209 01:01:35,680 --> 01:01:40,120 Speaker 3: bowl game, so I can't give it to him. He didn't. 1210 01:01:40,400 --> 01:01:42,920 Speaker 7: He didn't want to get Mike Leach fired. That's it. 1211 01:01:43,000 --> 01:01:44,880 Speaker 7: He just he didn't want to get Mike Leach fired. 1212 01:01:45,720 --> 01:01:49,160 Speaker 3: Still, he did not play every game, and there is 1213 01:01:49,520 --> 01:01:53,960 Speaker 3: a much more worthy winner. I'm proud to present the 1214 01:01:54,120 --> 01:01:59,120 Speaker 3: twenty twenty Gambling Heisman Trophy, again presented annually by the 1215 01:01:59,160 --> 01:02:01,280 Speaker 3: Action Never Gambling Trust. 1216 01:02:01,120 --> 01:02:05,440 Speaker 2: To and the winner is quarterback Drew. 1217 01:02:05,640 --> 01:02:10,760 Speaker 3: Plitt of Ball State. Ball State. Yes, they only went 1218 01:02:11,360 --> 01:02:15,280 Speaker 3: what six and three against the spread, but oh baby, 1219 01:02:15,560 --> 01:02:17,720 Speaker 3: did they do some good things for us. Not only 1220 01:02:18,240 --> 01:02:23,920 Speaker 3: did they win, I mean they beat Buffalo as outright 1221 01:02:23,960 --> 01:02:28,640 Speaker 3: in the MAC Championship as two touchdown underdogs. They beat 1222 01:02:28,840 --> 01:02:32,240 Speaker 3: San Jose State as nine and a half ten point 1223 01:02:32,320 --> 01:02:36,840 Speaker 3: underdogs in the bowl game. They beat Toledo as ten 1224 01:02:36,880 --> 01:02:40,240 Speaker 3: point underdogs. Earlier in the year, they somehow pulled out 1225 01:02:40,240 --> 01:02:43,120 Speaker 3: a win against Miss Western Michigan as an underdog. They 1226 01:02:43,160 --> 01:02:46,120 Speaker 3: needed that Western Mission game as an underdog. They needed 1227 01:02:46,120 --> 01:02:49,240 Speaker 3: to beat to Toledo as ten point dogs to get 1228 01:02:49,280 --> 01:02:52,160 Speaker 3: to the MAC Championship, to get to that bowl game 1229 01:02:52,360 --> 01:02:55,080 Speaker 3: where they made us so much money the MAC manifesto. 1230 01:02:55,240 --> 01:02:57,960 Speaker 3: Yes I'm biased, where I had ball State nine to 1231 01:02:58,000 --> 01:03:00,680 Speaker 3: one as well, I had so money line in the 1232 01:03:00,720 --> 01:03:03,120 Speaker 3: MAC Championship obviously because of that money line in the 1233 01:03:03,120 --> 01:03:05,480 Speaker 3: bowl game, and we need to get a MAC a 1234 01:03:05,520 --> 01:03:06,280 Speaker 3: winner from the MAC. 1235 01:03:07,040 --> 01:03:10,200 Speaker 2: I love mation. I love mation, and. 1236 01:03:10,160 --> 01:03:12,400 Speaker 3: This is the MAC. Was supposed to not play. They 1237 01:03:12,440 --> 01:03:14,160 Speaker 3: were the first announcer and they weren't going to play. 1238 01:03:14,320 --> 01:03:16,880 Speaker 3: They ended up playing. They brought us so much weakday 1239 01:03:17,000 --> 01:03:19,440 Speaker 3: joy when we thought we weren't going to have any. 1240 01:03:19,640 --> 01:03:23,840 Speaker 7: How beautiful is maction? How beautiful is maction? Oh man, 1241 01:03:24,040 --> 01:03:25,880 Speaker 7: just when we thought we had peak mation. 1242 01:03:26,560 --> 01:03:31,840 Speaker 3: Congratulations to Drew Plitt, quarterback from your twenty twenty MAC 1243 01:03:32,320 --> 01:03:36,200 Speaker 3: champion ball State Cardinals. And also they beat your boys 1244 01:03:36,200 --> 01:03:39,520 Speaker 3: Starkle in the bowl game as ten point dogs, so 1245 01:03:39,600 --> 01:03:42,040 Speaker 3: the award goes to Plit. Can you live with that? 1246 01:03:42,200 --> 01:03:44,400 Speaker 3: Oh yeah absolutely. Ball State made me a lot of money. 1247 01:03:44,400 --> 01:03:47,480 Speaker 3: We've loved ball State for years. The problem was always. Oh, 1248 01:03:47,520 --> 01:03:49,480 Speaker 3: by the way, you know Drew Plitt, I believe was 1249 01:03:49,520 --> 01:03:52,480 Speaker 3: recruited by Pete Limbo like five years ago, so it's 1250 01:03:52,760 --> 01:03:54,640 Speaker 3: he's been there quite a long time. It'll be interesting 1251 01:03:54,600 --> 01:03:56,520 Speaker 3: to see if he's one of the seniors that return. 1252 01:03:57,080 --> 01:04:01,080 Speaker 3: But we've said this about Mike new a long time ago, 1253 01:04:01,240 --> 01:04:03,520 Speaker 3: is that this team just needed to stay healthy and 1254 01:04:03,560 --> 01:04:06,280 Speaker 3: they can start dominating the MAC. That was a great 1255 01:04:06,280 --> 01:04:08,960 Speaker 3: Mac manifesto that she got out there. I'm glad that 1256 01:04:08,960 --> 01:04:10,760 Speaker 3: we got a max season nine to one was great. 1257 01:04:10,840 --> 01:04:11,240 Speaker 3: I can live. 1258 01:04:11,400 --> 01:04:14,280 Speaker 7: I can absolutely live with a team that won the 1259 01:04:14,280 --> 01:04:15,640 Speaker 7: MAC with those kinds of odds. 1260 01:04:15,760 --> 01:04:20,080 Speaker 3: Sure, four outright wins as an underdog, three as a 1261 01:04:20,120 --> 01:04:23,000 Speaker 3: double digit underdog. They started the year zero to three 1262 01:04:23,040 --> 01:04:27,360 Speaker 3: against the spread, finished five and oh so ball State 1263 01:04:27,440 --> 01:04:30,680 Speaker 3: finishing strong, gets through Plit the award. That'll do it 1264 01:04:30,720 --> 01:04:33,560 Speaker 3: for us. We're not done on content for the national title. 1265 01:04:33,920 --> 01:04:35,920 Speaker 3: Make sure you check us out on Twitter and on 1266 01:04:36,160 --> 01:04:38,880 Speaker 3: Actionnwork dot Com, the Action Network. Well. A lot more 1267 01:04:38,920 --> 01:04:42,440 Speaker 3: content coming. Also. If there's any updates to rosters for 1268 01:04:42,520 --> 01:04:47,160 Speaker 3: COVID or injury news, we'll update content accordingly. We appreciate 1269 01:04:47,200 --> 01:04:51,240 Speaker 3: everyone listening, appreciate the support. If you would just take 1270 01:04:51,640 --> 01:04:53,480 Speaker 3: a second to And by the way, if you won 1271 01:04:53,560 --> 01:04:56,760 Speaker 3: an award, reach out to our producer for a gift 1272 01:04:56,960 --> 01:04:59,240 Speaker 3: podcast at actionwork dot com. If you could take a 1273 01:04:59,280 --> 01:05:01,680 Speaker 3: second to this review means a lot to us. It 1274 01:05:01,680 --> 01:05:04,280 Speaker 3: really helps us. Tell a friend, tell an enemy. We 1275 01:05:04,360 --> 01:05:06,840 Speaker 3: hope we won you some money this year and provided 1276 01:05:06,880 --> 01:05:09,880 Speaker 3: some entertainment along the way. We hope we can win 1277 01:05:09,960 --> 01:05:12,040 Speaker 3: some more money together and close out this ball season 1278 01:05:12,080 --> 01:05:15,600 Speaker 3: strong on the national title. And it's not really goodbye, 1279 01:05:15,840 --> 01:05:19,040 Speaker 3: it's see you later. By later, I mean next week, 1280 01:05:19,240 --> 01:05:22,400 Speaker 3: because next Friday we'll be out Colin and I we'll 1281 01:05:22,400 --> 01:05:25,680 Speaker 3: be back with college basketball, and then in about a 1282 01:05:25,720 --> 01:05:27,920 Speaker 3: month or two, well Colin right now probably Colin will 1283 01:05:27,920 --> 01:05:29,840 Speaker 3: probably start getting to work on college football next week, 1284 01:05:29,960 --> 01:05:34,080 Speaker 3: so I've got that. But we'll be back with previews 1285 01:05:34,080 --> 01:05:36,080 Speaker 3: in the summer, which I can't wait for. Hopefully it's 1286 01:05:36,080 --> 01:05:39,040 Speaker 3: a more normal year and we in more normal times. 1287 01:05:39,240 --> 01:05:42,040 Speaker 3: But I'm glad we got through this year. It was 1288 01:05:42,080 --> 01:05:44,800 Speaker 3: a pleasure doing this. We love doing it mainly because 1289 01:05:44,800 --> 01:05:46,920 Speaker 3: we love college football, but we also love all of 1290 01:05:46,920 --> 01:05:48,200 Speaker 3: you guys who listen. 1291 01:05:48,840 --> 01:05:51,160 Speaker 8: Hey, this is the producer, Matt Mitchell. I also want 1292 01:05:51,200 --> 01:05:53,400 Speaker 8: to express my gratitude to each and every one of 1293 01:05:53,400 --> 01:05:56,720 Speaker 8: you guys for listening to these college football episodes of 1294 01:05:56,760 --> 01:06:00,920 Speaker 8: the Action Network podcast. They've always been my very favorite 1295 01:06:01,200 --> 01:06:03,400 Speaker 8: for a season which we didn't even know if games 1296 01:06:03,400 --> 01:06:05,520 Speaker 8: were going to take place, to have all of you 1297 01:06:05,640 --> 01:06:08,840 Speaker 8: along for a ride as we grew the show, grew 1298 01:06:08,880 --> 01:06:12,000 Speaker 8: our audience, and were able to have a great deal 1299 01:06:12,000 --> 01:06:15,600 Speaker 8: of fun in what has often been a very unfun year. 1300 01:06:16,040 --> 01:06:19,560 Speaker 8: Is incredibly meaningful to Stucky and Colin into the Action Network, 1301 01:06:19,720 --> 01:06:23,360 Speaker 8: but also to me on a very personal level. We 1302 01:06:23,440 --> 01:06:28,040 Speaker 8: sang country roads this year. We had a Canadian help 1303 01:06:28,160 --> 01:06:30,760 Speaker 8: us fall in love with a football team from Myrtle Beach. 1304 01:06:31,320 --> 01:06:33,920 Speaker 8: We never let the ladies get between us and the belt. 1305 01:06:34,200 --> 01:06:37,120 Speaker 8: We celebrated the return of Maction. We had a lot 1306 01:06:37,120 --> 01:06:39,840 Speaker 8: of fun. I love each and every one of you 1307 01:06:39,960 --> 01:06:42,440 Speaker 8: for joining us for that ride. I look forward to 1308 01:06:42,480 --> 01:06:45,200 Speaker 8: seeing all of you guys right back here when college 1309 01:06:45,200 --> 01:06:49,000 Speaker 8: football starts next year, and Colin, I will leave you 1310 01:06:49,080 --> 01:06:53,640 Speaker 8: with this reminder of your favorite defensive coordinator, Barry Odom. 1311 01:06:53,800 --> 01:06:55,840 Speaker 2: Verry Odom is a joke. 1312 01:06:56,560 --> 01:07:00,720 Speaker 3: So let's have a night on Monday and we'll catch 1313 01:07:00,720 --> 01:07:01,160 Speaker 3: you all later. 1314 01:07:01,320 --> 01:07:05,360 Speaker 7: Cheers, peace out, M. M. 1315 01:07:05,640 --> 01:07:11,000 Speaker 3: M m m hmmm, we're finished talking. 1316 01:07:11,600 --> 01:07:11,640 Speaker 1: H