Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: So we've got key economic data here joining us from Trinity,
Speaker 2: the PhD in economics, Colin, how would you like to.
Speaker 1: Chime in, sir on US economic data and we avoid
Speaker 1: the US is at a very instant juncture. You obviously
Speaker 1: have an increase in inflation pressures, the signs of the
Speaker 1: labor market is weakening. So this is a uncomfortable moment
Speaker 1: for policymakers.
Speaker 3: I suspect we welcome you from Allied Irish Bank.
Speaker 2: Colunt Hunt with us here and of course with all
Speaker 2: of his Trinity Economics. Let's first identify AIB right now,
Speaker 2: this is safe to say you're owned by the Irish government.
Speaker 1: How do you answer that question? We were owned by
Speaker 1: the Irish government. The Irish government came to our rescue
Speaker 1: post the GFC and for the period of about fifteen years,
Speaker 1: the Irish government had a presence on our share register
Speaker 1: and in June just gone, we marked the Irish government's exit.
Speaker 1: And again the organization is one hundred percent privately owned
Speaker 1: and in fact, one of the reasons that I'm here
Speaker 1: this week with the Barclay's Financials conference yesterday and meeting
Speaker 1: a lot of our investors, most of our very significant
Speaker 1: investors are based here in the United States, so this.
Speaker 2: Is very important. We'd like to have some news here.
Speaker 2: Jennifer Dugan's waiting in Dublin for this. Can we suggest
Speaker 2: that there would be some form of public offering of
Speaker 2: shares of Allied Irish Bank in the coming weeks?
Speaker 3: Quarters? Can you make an announcement today.
Speaker 1: That there's certainly no announcement to be made because we
Speaker 1: are one We're one hundred percent free floating at this stage.
Speaker 1: So the government has exited the register. They came to
Speaker 1: our rescue with about twenty almost twenty one billion euro.
Speaker 1: We repaid that and now we are one hundred percent
Speaker 1: privately owned.
Speaker 3: This started well, it started very well, doctor.
Speaker 4: How do you give us some perspective ons of the
Speaker 4: appetite for cross border transactions at this point in time?
Speaker 4: So here we're living this day in day out, the
Speaker 4: kind of ambiguity or uncertainty about trade policy and andomic
Speaker 4: policy more broadly, What do companies domiciled outside of the
Speaker 4: United States think of this environment and how's that affecting
Speaker 4: business as.
Speaker 3: You see it?
Speaker 1: Well, I suppose the environment we had a period of
Speaker 1: uncertainty earlier on this year, very very warmly welcomed the
Speaker 1: fact that we have come to an agreement between President
Speaker 1: Trump and President vonder Lyin which was announced in Scotland
Speaker 1: a few weeks ago. Businesses, you know, hates uncertainty. We
Speaker 1: have certainty now. Would you pick a tier level of
Speaker 1: fifteen percent? You wouldn't necessarily, but that's the reality. That's
Speaker 1: what we're dealing with, and at least the uncertainty now
Speaker 1: has been has been eliminated. The United States is a
Speaker 1: hugely important market for Ireland, not only as a source
Speaker 1: for our exports, but also as a place where.
Speaker 3: Irish businesses invests. So typically Irish businesses.
Speaker 1: When they outgrow a market that is growing quite robustly
Speaker 1: but still quite small, they typically go to the UK
Speaker 1: first and then they go to the United States. So
Speaker 1: that was the path we followed.
Speaker 3: We've been here in New.
Speaker 1: York for fifty years this year, and we're still all
Speaker 1: the way through the crisis, we maintained and all the
Speaker 1: way through our period of government ownership, we maintained our
Speaker 1: physical presidence here.
Speaker 3: It's a really important.
Speaker 1: Place from us from an investment perspective, but it's also
Speaker 1: a really important country for deployment of our loan book,
Speaker 1: and of course other Irish businesses followed us as well.
Speaker 1: So you have the likes to see r H, the
Speaker 1: likes of Smurfoot, WestRock, the likes of Kerry Group, all
Speaker 1: having very significant exposures to the United States. Notwithstanding the
Speaker 1: uncertainty we had earlier this year, it's still a hugely
Speaker 1: important market and it's a hugely important provider of external capital.
Speaker 4: How is the Irish economy doing today? When you look
Speaker 4: at the housing market, at commercial investments, what's the relative
Speaker 4: health of the Irish economy in twenty twenty five.
Speaker 1: Colomy is doing quite well, like Irish GDP numbers. Because
Speaker 1: of the scale of the international sector in the economy
Speaker 1: can be wild and volatile, so we tend not to
Speaker 1: look at GDP. We tend to look at modified mes
Speaker 1: to demand. So this year we're talking about growth summer
Speaker 1: of the order of about two point three two point five
Speaker 1: percent in real terms, unemployment about four percent, and total
Speaker 1: employment in the state now running a two point eight million.
Speaker 1: That sounds small, but when I was in college all
Speaker 1: those many many years ago, thirty five years ago or so,
Speaker 1: we had one million people at work. So this is
Speaker 1: an economy usherly transformed. Right and now when the best
Speaker 1: performing in Europe.
Speaker 2: Colin hunt with us with the Allied Irish Bank, and
Speaker 2: we continue. We're commercial free with you across America, in
Speaker 2: Ireland and around the world. Here is through this important
Speaker 2: economic report in fourteen minutes ed Ludlow's schedule to be
Speaker 2: with us. Here in a bit on the important Apple meetings.
Speaker 3: I was talking with Olivia Fletcher. She calls me up.
Speaker 3: Olivia calls Okay, She goes, did I wake you? It's
Speaker 3: three am. I'm like, Olivia tiny hey, Colin, I got like.
Speaker 2: An hour conversation with you, and I think frankly President
Speaker 2: Trump could have an hour conversation with you. Let's talk
Speaker 2: about this strange corporate book in Dublin, in the fact
Speaker 2: that people sophisticated like Blackstone are literally giving the keys
Speaker 2: back and office buildings.
Speaker 3: What is the state of commercial real estate?
Speaker 2: And as you say, a completely rebuilt Irish economy.
Speaker 1: So the commercial real estate market had a very good run,
Speaker 1: and then once we had the turn in the official
Speaker 1: rate cycle, you began to see valuations coming.
Speaker 3: Back quite a bit.
Speaker 1: Of course, you had the COVID impact and the impact
Speaker 1: on commercial valuations because of working from home. That would
Speaker 1: have added it led to a drmward adjustment as well,
Speaker 1: but we have seen quite a different step back in
Speaker 1: valuation market clearing. I think the market is clearing, and
Speaker 1: certainly we're beginning to see signs of people of higher
Speaker 1: degrees of interest in the market. There are trades taking place.
Speaker 1: The valuation adjustment seems to be behind us. If anything,
Speaker 1: I would have expected that to happen a little bit
Speaker 1: earlier because of the turn in the rate cycle. But
Speaker 1: I do think we are at the bottom.
Speaker 3: Cycling through.
Speaker 4: A related question, perhaps closer to home, I'm wondering what
Speaker 4: your offices are looking like. I remember reading you're trying
Speaker 4: to get employees back three days a week. Some push
Speaker 4: back to that, As I know, there was here in
Speaker 4: the States with a number of financial institutions and other businesses.
Speaker 4: Here we are at the end of the summer looking
Speaker 4: to the fall. Where does that process stand? Were you
Speaker 4: surprised by the reaction? Folks didn't want to come in three.
Speaker 3: Days, so we didn't want to hear this question.
Speaker 1: I will answer there's no question I don't want to
Speaker 1: hear it. I'm more than comfortable in answering to that.
Speaker 3: Look we had.
Speaker 1: We have a situation where we have effectively three types
Speaker 1: of work patterns inside in the organization. Our branch staff
Speaker 1: are in five days a week. Our call center staff
Speaker 1: are in five days a week, our security people in
Speaker 1: five days a week. We have some people who work
Speaker 1: from home two days a week. We currently have a
Speaker 1: group of people who work from home three days a week,
Speaker 1: and we're asking that group of our colleagues to come
Speaker 1: into the office an additional day. I think it is
Speaker 1: really good for culture. I think it's good for learning
Speaker 1: and development. I think ultimately it is good for the business.
Speaker 2: Question to Nicholas Booth at Stanford's wonderful giving me the
Speaker 2: best explanation of this i've heard. Are you down the
Speaker 2: road believing that you're going to compensate people who are
Speaker 2: in five days a week versus the work from home crew?
Speaker 1: Well, the contracts that people have layout in great detail
Speaker 1: their base of employment.
Speaker 3: We're not.
Speaker 1: We incentivize our staff to come to work through a
Speaker 1: salary check that arives in their account on the twenty
Speaker 1: fifth of every month, just because of time.
Speaker 3: I've got to get to this.
Speaker 2: There's a back and forth on trade and everything within Ireland.
Speaker 2: With America and tariffs, and Trump comes down to the
Speaker 2: pharmaceutical industry.
Speaker 3: Give us, give us.
Speaker 2: A state that allied Irish Bank sees of yes, the
Speaker 2: weight loss drugs.
Speaker 3: I'm not using Gurris, just cut and chisels.
Speaker 2: Help us with the pharmaceutical dynamic that will change given
Speaker 2: decisions by President Trump.
Speaker 1: So some of the biggest farmer names here in the
Speaker 1: United States have have had a physical presence in Ireland
Speaker 1: for over fifty years. Ireland is very attractive location for
Speaker 1: US investment. Gives you open, unfettered access to the largest
Speaker 1: single market in the world in the European Union, common
Speaker 1: law English speaking, and we have of course a cultural
Speaker 1: and perhaps fraternal affinity with one another across the Atlantic.
Speaker 1: So we have very the deep rooted US pharmaceutical companies
Speaker 1: in Ireland. They are it's a it's a big driver
Speaker 1: of our exports to the United States.
Speaker 3: We did go through a period of.
Speaker 1: Grave uncertainty earlier on this year, but I'm very happy
Speaker 1: that that has been eliminated.
Speaker 3: Now we have some certain humulation to tariffs in that sector.
Speaker 3: Thank you for getting life flat beds on air Lingus
Speaker 3: is doing. I used to be a director of aer
Speaker 3: Lingus I was. I was active one that pushed it through.
Speaker 3: I don't know who told you that, but links it's
Speaker 3: like Icelandic airways back. You brought an entourage with your
Speaker 3: older oh, with Guinness too. What is air Lingus is
Speaker 3: all of a sudden got a buzz to it?
Speaker 1: Does when our lingas had a buzz to it going
Speaker 1: all the way back to its privatization.
Speaker 3: Really in two thousand and six, have you got much flatbeds? Fine?
Speaker 1: The life bat you need to fly more often with
Speaker 1: our lingus. They've had life flat beds for the best
Speaker 1: part of a decade, if not.
Speaker 2: More, well, you know they have, but now they're really
Speaker 2: pushing it.
Speaker 3: Colin, Right, can you come back again? Are you going
Speaker 3: to be in New York in the next five years?
Speaker 3: I hope here in the next five weeks. All right?
Speaker 2: Led Irish Bank and we said good morning to Boston,
Speaker 2: the new Elied Irish Bank years ago. Colin, and thank
Speaker 2: you so much, Doctor Han of eled Irish Bank, their
Speaker 2: chief executive