1 00:00:02,640 --> 00:00:05,320 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Penl Podcast. I'm Paul swing you, 2 00:00:05,360 --> 00:00:07,680 Speaker 1: along with my co host Lisa Brahma wits each day 3 00:00:07,720 --> 00:00:10,240 Speaker 1: we bring you the most noteworthy and useful interviews for 4 00:00:10,280 --> 00:00:12,520 Speaker 1: you and your money. Whether at the grocery store or 5 00:00:12,560 --> 00:00:15,480 Speaker 1: the trading floor. Find a Bloomberg Penil podcast on Apple 6 00:00:15,520 --> 00:00:17,959 Speaker 1: podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, as well as 7 00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:22,960 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com. We are amidst the longest economic 8 00:00:23,040 --> 00:00:26,440 Speaker 1: cycle on record. The FED is certainly in the dobish mode. 9 00:00:26,880 --> 00:00:29,120 Speaker 1: Trade risk appears to be on the back burner, at 10 00:00:29,160 --> 00:00:31,560 Speaker 1: least for now. So the question is what do investors 11 00:00:31,600 --> 00:00:34,120 Speaker 1: do after that phenomenal first half of the year. To 12 00:00:34,120 --> 00:00:36,720 Speaker 1: help us guide us for the second half, we welcome 13 00:00:36,720 --> 00:00:39,320 Speaker 1: our good friend Tom Kennedy Thomas, Global head of Macro 14 00:00:39,520 --> 00:00:42,800 Speaker 1: and fixed Income Strategy at JP Morgan Private Bank. They 15 00:00:42,840 --> 00:00:46,000 Speaker 1: have lots of money under management. Uh. Tom joins us 16 00:00:46,040 --> 00:00:48,400 Speaker 1: here on our Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio. Trust me, they 17 00:00:48,400 --> 00:00:52,160 Speaker 1: have lots of money, the tech tech tons good jillions Jullian. 18 00:00:52,280 --> 00:00:54,960 Speaker 1: So Tom, what do we do here? Again? A great 19 00:00:55,040 --> 00:00:58,480 Speaker 1: first half of the year, Probably a tendency for a 20 00:00:58,480 --> 00:01:01,160 Speaker 1: lot of investors is to protect act what they made. 21 00:01:01,240 --> 00:01:04,120 Speaker 1: If that's what somebody comes to, what do you tell them, Yeah, 22 00:01:04,400 --> 00:01:05,480 Speaker 1: come to me a lot to ask that. I think 23 00:01:05,480 --> 00:01:08,520 Speaker 1: it's all right. Question you get. Protection can come in 24 00:01:08,560 --> 00:01:10,920 Speaker 1: lots of shapes and sizes, right, I want to protect 25 00:01:10,959 --> 00:01:14,319 Speaker 1: myself by still staying invested. I think adding longer maturity 26 00:01:14,319 --> 00:01:17,800 Speaker 1: bonds UH is a great port portfolio hedge. Common pushback 27 00:01:18,319 --> 00:01:20,960 Speaker 1: eels are so low, Tom, why would I do that? Well, 28 00:01:21,160 --> 00:01:22,920 Speaker 1: they could go lower and maybe we want to talk 29 00:01:22,959 --> 00:01:25,880 Speaker 1: about that. The other pieces are gold. I think historically 30 00:01:25,920 --> 00:01:28,640 Speaker 1: has been a great late cycle play and it protects you. 31 00:01:29,040 --> 00:01:31,119 Speaker 1: My My only pushback there is it doesn't have any 32 00:01:31,240 --> 00:01:34,080 Speaker 1: yield to it, so it's a pure protection play. And 33 00:01:34,080 --> 00:01:36,360 Speaker 1: then what we have seen most on the first half 34 00:01:36,400 --> 00:01:39,039 Speaker 1: of the of the year was forward steep in their trades, 35 00:01:39,200 --> 00:01:41,560 Speaker 1: the place where the spread between a two year treasury 36 00:01:41,600 --> 00:01:43,959 Speaker 1: and a tenure treasury would would steep in a down 37 00:01:44,240 --> 00:01:47,040 Speaker 1: down draft scenario, but the forward market was relatively flat, 38 00:01:47,200 --> 00:01:50,280 Speaker 1: so we had people positioning to protect their portfolio for 39 00:01:50,400 --> 00:01:52,080 Speaker 1: a world where the Fed had to cut aggressively and 40 00:01:52,080 --> 00:01:53,880 Speaker 1: steep in the curve. They were using that as a 41 00:01:53,920 --> 00:01:57,400 Speaker 1: portfolio hedge could get lots of leverage in that trade. Um, 42 00:01:57,480 --> 00:01:59,160 Speaker 1: that trade I think has largely played out. The forward 43 00:01:59,160 --> 00:02:01,360 Speaker 1: market is steepening already, so I think this is still 44 00:02:01,360 --> 00:02:02,800 Speaker 1: a good trade, but it's not going to protect your 45 00:02:02,800 --> 00:02:04,680 Speaker 1: portfolio the same way we thought it would earlier in 46 00:02:04,680 --> 00:02:07,360 Speaker 1: the year. So you're not recommending bitcoin, No, we're not. 47 00:02:07,440 --> 00:02:09,680 Speaker 1: That's not part of our two kit at the moment. 48 00:02:09,800 --> 00:02:13,480 Speaker 1: And I'll pause there alright, seem might become want to 49 00:02:13,919 --> 00:02:15,880 Speaker 1: want to look for I do have to wonder what 50 00:02:15,919 --> 00:02:18,120 Speaker 1: you're expecting for Friday. We do get that payrolls number, 51 00:02:18,120 --> 00:02:21,440 Speaker 1: and the market certainly is positioned for three basis point 52 00:02:21,520 --> 00:02:24,360 Speaker 1: rate cuts by December. What do we need to see 53 00:02:24,360 --> 00:02:28,040 Speaker 1: in order to maintain calm on Friday? Yeah, the calm 54 00:02:28,120 --> 00:02:32,480 Speaker 1: number I think is north of to one fifty, roughly 55 00:02:32,480 --> 00:02:35,960 Speaker 1: around consensus. Um. I think you see anything under a hundred, 56 00:02:36,000 --> 00:02:37,320 Speaker 1: and I think you have to start to think, well, 57 00:02:37,360 --> 00:02:39,160 Speaker 1: what does the Fed do in July? Is it? Do 58 00:02:39,200 --> 00:02:41,119 Speaker 1: we have to start the price twenty five basis point 59 00:02:41,120 --> 00:02:45,000 Speaker 1: cut in July? This conversation, I think gets gets very 60 00:02:45,080 --> 00:02:47,880 Speaker 1: myopically focused. What does the Fed do in July? The 61 00:02:47,919 --> 00:02:49,480 Speaker 1: base case, I think at this point has to be 62 00:02:49,560 --> 00:02:52,959 Speaker 1: that they cut twenty five basis points. Inflation expectations are low. 63 00:02:53,000 --> 00:02:56,200 Speaker 1: Growth is rolling over. But most importantly, the Fed hasn't 64 00:02:56,240 --> 00:02:58,280 Speaker 1: pushed back on this. They have not pushed back on 65 00:02:58,320 --> 00:03:01,040 Speaker 1: financial market pricing, So that should tell us that they 66 00:03:01,040 --> 00:03:03,080 Speaker 1: are relatively comfortable with the way the market is pricing 67 00:03:03,120 --> 00:03:06,120 Speaker 1: at this point. Um between now and then Power will 68 00:03:06,160 --> 00:03:09,560 Speaker 1: speak one more time, and assuming Friday's job job report 69 00:03:09,639 --> 00:03:11,760 Speaker 1: is okay, I think you'll have actually Powell lean into 70 00:03:11,800 --> 00:03:16,320 Speaker 1: and say, you know, what is okay with fifty is unlikely? Okay? 71 00:03:16,480 --> 00:03:19,960 Speaker 1: So what's the big risk on Friday? Oh? I think 72 00:03:19,960 --> 00:03:22,239 Speaker 1: the risk is that we start to see a crack 73 00:03:22,360 --> 00:03:25,320 Speaker 1: in the in the labor market. This has been the 74 00:03:25,400 --> 00:03:29,919 Speaker 1: foundation of the argument that there's no emergency happening right now. 75 00:03:30,720 --> 00:03:32,800 Speaker 1: The Fed's gonna cut, but it's doing it because it's 76 00:03:32,800 --> 00:03:34,920 Speaker 1: a recognition maybe that they hiked one or two times 77 00:03:35,000 --> 00:03:37,120 Speaker 1: too many last year. They're gonna get get down towards 78 00:03:37,120 --> 00:03:40,640 Speaker 1: a lower neutral rate. If the consumers cracks, which it 79 00:03:40,680 --> 00:03:43,920 Speaker 1: tends to be the last piece to crack um that 80 00:03:44,040 --> 00:03:47,360 Speaker 1: argument that they're they're they're only gonna hike sorry, excuse me, 81 00:03:47,400 --> 00:03:50,280 Speaker 1: only gonna cut one or two times looks less likely, 82 00:03:50,280 --> 00:03:52,640 Speaker 1: and it's more likely they'll have to cut aggressively. UM 83 00:03:52,680 --> 00:03:54,840 Speaker 1: So I think that's the real risk scenario. All right, 84 00:03:54,880 --> 00:03:56,400 Speaker 1: that's a good, good some ready for the FED. Let's 85 00:03:56,440 --> 00:03:59,520 Speaker 1: go across to Europe. We have a new ECB president, 86 00:03:59,640 --> 00:04:01,640 Speaker 1: Christine the Guard. What does that mean for you and 87 00:04:01,640 --> 00:04:03,760 Speaker 1: for markets? Do you think I think we just priced 88 00:04:03,760 --> 00:04:07,200 Speaker 1: out a hawkish leadership from the e c B. That's 89 00:04:07,200 --> 00:04:10,760 Speaker 1: got to be step number one recognition. Um. From what 90 00:04:10,800 --> 00:04:13,160 Speaker 1: we can deduce from her is that she's likely to 91 00:04:13,200 --> 00:04:15,920 Speaker 1: be supportive of accommodation for from the ECB going forward, 92 00:04:16,640 --> 00:04:19,919 Speaker 1: given the limited impact we've we've seen in her past statements. 93 00:04:20,600 --> 00:04:24,440 Speaker 1: Kind Of an interesting fact if we remember before ECB 94 00:04:24,839 --> 00:04:28,479 Speaker 1: instituted QUI the I m F report that year, six 95 00:04:28,560 --> 00:04:31,360 Speaker 1: months before QUWEE came out, she suggested in there that 96 00:04:31,440 --> 00:04:34,160 Speaker 1: que was warranted if inflation remained low for a long time. 97 00:04:34,440 --> 00:04:38,880 Speaker 1: So she even favored unconventional tools back in. I don't 98 00:04:38,880 --> 00:04:40,560 Speaker 1: see anything and what she said since then that would 99 00:04:40,560 --> 00:04:45,920 Speaker 1: suggest otherwise. So that's definitely encouraging the doves over in Europe. 100 00:04:45,960 --> 00:04:47,600 Speaker 1: I do want to just bring me this headline at 101 00:04:47,600 --> 00:04:50,599 Speaker 1: President Trump just tweeting that China and Europe are playing 102 00:04:50,680 --> 00:04:53,760 Speaker 1: a big currency manipulation game. You are seeing the dollar 103 00:04:53,839 --> 00:04:56,680 Speaker 1: move a bit on this UH weaketting a touch against 104 00:04:56,760 --> 00:04:59,480 Speaker 1: its major peers. I'm wondering how the dollar plays in here. 105 00:04:59,520 --> 00:05:02,960 Speaker 1: If the dollar does continue to weaken, is that supportive 106 00:05:03,360 --> 00:05:07,680 Speaker 1: for US bonds or not? Considering the fact that a 107 00:05:07,720 --> 00:05:11,040 Speaker 1: lot of Japanese investors are coming in an unhedged basis. Yeah, 108 00:05:11,200 --> 00:05:15,839 Speaker 1: this question gets tough that the monetary policy accommodation is 109 00:05:16,720 --> 00:05:19,560 Speaker 1: globally competitive at this point. So I think you have 110 00:05:19,600 --> 00:05:22,360 Speaker 1: to answer the where will currency go question with who 111 00:05:22,440 --> 00:05:26,000 Speaker 1: has more ammunition? Who has more ability to ease financial conditions? 112 00:05:26,400 --> 00:05:29,160 Speaker 1: Is it Japan? Probably not? In the developed world? Is 113 00:05:29,200 --> 00:05:33,000 Speaker 1: it Europe? Probably not, It's probably the FED. So between 114 00:05:34,080 --> 00:05:37,720 Speaker 1: your your timing, now, where does flight to quality come 115 00:05:37,720 --> 00:05:40,920 Speaker 1: into play? If you hit a downdrafting growth that's substantial 116 00:05:41,400 --> 00:05:44,039 Speaker 1: versus a FED that's trying to ease financial conditions to 117 00:05:44,240 --> 00:05:46,200 Speaker 1: prevent that from happening. So I think we're in a 118 00:05:46,240 --> 00:05:49,040 Speaker 1: period now where the dollar is likely to be um 119 00:05:49,080 --> 00:05:52,520 Speaker 1: biased to depreciate. But you're you're you're talking about a 120 00:05:52,560 --> 00:05:55,159 Speaker 1: timing game now, I think, and to be very clear, 121 00:05:55,360 --> 00:05:58,120 Speaker 1: my base case is not that we hit UH substantial 122 00:05:58,200 --> 00:06:01,640 Speaker 1: downdrafting growth over the next six to twelve months, but 123 00:06:01,760 --> 00:06:03,440 Speaker 1: we do. We do place a one and three chance 124 00:06:03,440 --> 00:06:05,560 Speaker 1: of that happening UH in the next six to twelve months. 125 00:06:05,560 --> 00:06:08,000 Speaker 1: It's quite high. Tom Kennedy, You'll have to come back 126 00:06:08,120 --> 00:06:11,800 Speaker 1: after July four holiday and elucidate more of your opinions, 127 00:06:11,800 --> 00:06:14,200 Speaker 1: because I've got a lot more questions. Tom Kennedy, Global 128 00:06:14,200 --> 00:06:31,680 Speaker 1: head of Macro and Fixing Strategy at JP Morgan Private Bank. Well, 129 00:06:31,760 --> 00:06:34,719 Speaker 1: Christine Lagarde, head of the i m F, is poised 130 00:06:34,760 --> 00:06:36,599 Speaker 1: to take the home of the European Central Bank after 131 00:06:36,680 --> 00:06:40,120 Speaker 1: Mario dragging leaves in October with us to help us 132 00:06:40,120 --> 00:06:43,000 Speaker 1: break this down. As Irene Finelle Higman, she is an 133 00:06:43,000 --> 00:06:46,200 Speaker 1: adjunct professor of International Affairs at Columbia University in New 134 00:06:46,320 --> 00:06:49,160 Speaker 1: York City. I mean, thanks so much for having us 135 00:06:49,400 --> 00:06:55,240 Speaker 1: to what extent was this announcement of miss Laguard a surprise? UM? 136 00:06:55,279 --> 00:06:57,000 Speaker 1: I think it was, first of all, thank you for 137 00:06:57,160 --> 00:07:00,520 Speaker 1: letting me come back on Bloomberg to discuss this. UM. 138 00:07:00,560 --> 00:07:05,200 Speaker 1: I think that this was a surprise, But at the 139 00:07:05,279 --> 00:07:09,640 Speaker 1: same time, everyone thinks it's a very smart choice. It 140 00:07:09,760 --> 00:07:12,040 Speaker 1: was a surprise because it was assumed that this would 141 00:07:12,080 --> 00:07:16,160 Speaker 1: go to a more conventional or traditional high level economist 142 00:07:16,280 --> 00:07:19,200 Speaker 1: or other head of a central bank. However, I want 143 00:07:19,240 --> 00:07:22,680 Speaker 1: to make one point because one of the comments has 144 00:07:22,720 --> 00:07:26,640 Speaker 1: centered that Madame Lagat would bring more political expertise rather 145 00:07:26,680 --> 00:07:30,720 Speaker 1: than economic central bank expertise. However, it's important to remember 146 00:07:31,080 --> 00:07:34,640 Speaker 1: that following the sovereign debt crisis in Europe from two 147 00:07:34,680 --> 00:07:38,240 Speaker 1: thousand ten to two thousand and fourteen, this was a 148 00:07:38,360 --> 00:07:41,160 Speaker 1: very unique time where for the first time, the I 149 00:07:41,400 --> 00:07:45,440 Speaker 1: m F under before that DSK and Lagoud, the e 150 00:07:45,560 --> 00:07:48,720 Speaker 1: c B under Tricia and and Hagi and the EU 151 00:07:48,800 --> 00:07:53,080 Speaker 1: Commission had to work extremely closely together for the famous 152 00:07:53,120 --> 00:07:56,400 Speaker 1: Troika to try to bail out these countries, both on 153 00:07:56,440 --> 00:08:00,240 Speaker 1: the sovereign nation basis and on the banking sector. So 154 00:08:00,440 --> 00:08:05,000 Speaker 1: the relationship and knowledge and connectivity between the I m 155 00:08:05,080 --> 00:08:07,800 Speaker 1: F and the e c B is far deeper than 156 00:08:07,840 --> 00:08:10,480 Speaker 1: it would have been in other circumstances. I mean, this 157 00:08:10,560 --> 00:08:12,800 Speaker 1: is a really interesting point, and I have to wonder 158 00:08:12,880 --> 00:08:15,480 Speaker 1: there have been a lot of comments about her nomination, 159 00:08:15,520 --> 00:08:18,760 Speaker 1: about Christine Lagard's nomination saying in general, being the head 160 00:08:18,760 --> 00:08:21,880 Speaker 1: of a central bank is becoming increasingly a political role 161 00:08:21,960 --> 00:08:25,480 Speaker 1: in less of an economics role. I'm wondering, given the 162 00:08:25,520 --> 00:08:28,000 Speaker 1: backdrop that is unique to the European Union, do you 163 00:08:28,000 --> 00:08:30,280 Speaker 1: think that is a leap too far and that this 164 00:08:30,400 --> 00:08:35,320 Speaker 1: really is an ECB specific necessity for a political kind 165 00:08:35,360 --> 00:08:39,560 Speaker 1: of figure rather than simply an economics one. I think 166 00:08:39,600 --> 00:08:43,640 Speaker 1: it's a combination. Um. I think clearly the e c 167 00:08:43,880 --> 00:08:47,840 Speaker 1: B right now has had marvelous leadership under Draggy, but 168 00:08:48,000 --> 00:08:51,360 Speaker 1: even more important, the e c B has taken on 169 00:08:51,520 --> 00:08:55,680 Speaker 1: a mandate and an expanded scope of functions far beyond 170 00:08:55,720 --> 00:09:00,480 Speaker 1: its original mandate pure price stability and monetary policy. Under 171 00:09:00,520 --> 00:09:04,760 Speaker 1: the new banking Union in Europe. The ECB today is 172 00:09:04,920 --> 00:09:07,760 Speaker 1: very much in the same position as the said on 173 00:09:07,960 --> 00:09:13,120 Speaker 1: having both extensive and expansive supervisory and monitoring power over 174 00:09:13,280 --> 00:09:17,600 Speaker 1: the major banks in the Eurozone area and in of 175 00:09:17,640 --> 00:09:22,080 Speaker 1: course all European banking sectors. So this already puts it 176 00:09:22,120 --> 00:09:26,119 Speaker 1: in a different position where clearly inter relationship between governments 177 00:09:26,640 --> 00:09:29,880 Speaker 1: and between the banks and the national central banks is 178 00:09:29,960 --> 00:09:32,559 Speaker 1: much tighter, is much greater than it would have been. 179 00:09:33,240 --> 00:09:37,199 Speaker 1: Whether this supplies more to the e c B uh 180 00:09:37,240 --> 00:09:40,599 Speaker 1: than elsewhere, that may be the case because of the 181 00:09:40,720 --> 00:09:45,160 Speaker 1: unique structure of the Eurozone, and also because a brand 182 00:09:45,200 --> 00:09:49,120 Speaker 1: new new commission is now also coming into play post crisis. 183 00:09:49,440 --> 00:09:52,960 Speaker 1: So I think all of these factors played together that 184 00:09:53,040 --> 00:09:56,800 Speaker 1: there is no longer a way to nicely compartmentalize the 185 00:09:56,880 --> 00:10:00,520 Speaker 1: economic side on the political side. So, Professor, what do 186 00:10:00,600 --> 00:10:04,920 Speaker 1: you think Madame Lagar's goals and strategy will be when she, 187 00:10:05,440 --> 00:10:10,040 Speaker 1: assuming she assumes this position. I think she will probably 188 00:10:10,240 --> 00:10:16,440 Speaker 1: follow very closely uh the Druggy both methodology and policy. Uh. 189 00:10:16,480 --> 00:10:20,120 Speaker 1: There seems to be very much a continuation UH. She 190 00:10:20,360 --> 00:10:24,360 Speaker 1: herself has uh seems to have had an expansive you 191 00:10:24,960 --> 00:10:28,640 Speaker 1: of the role of major both multilateral and central banks 192 00:10:29,320 --> 00:10:34,720 Speaker 1: in helping UH to stabilize economies maintaining stability, taking a 193 00:10:35,000 --> 00:10:39,319 Speaker 1: very cautious approach, not to assume that economies are, particularly 194 00:10:39,360 --> 00:10:43,080 Speaker 1: in Europe, suddenly doing well enough for anything dramatic to occur. 195 00:10:43,520 --> 00:10:45,720 Speaker 1: Yet at the same time, she will have to be 196 00:10:45,840 --> 00:10:49,080 Speaker 1: very careful because they're not that many tools left in 197 00:10:49,120 --> 00:10:53,160 Speaker 1: a sense, uh for the ECB to play with. UH. 198 00:10:53,280 --> 00:10:56,959 Speaker 1: So there I think she will need expert economic advice 199 00:10:57,000 --> 00:11:00,720 Speaker 1: on the technical side, But what will be very important 200 00:11:00,960 --> 00:11:04,599 Speaker 1: is to first of all established prestige and total credibility 201 00:11:04,600 --> 00:11:07,240 Speaker 1: in the markets, particularly in Europe, which I think she 202 00:11:07,360 --> 00:11:11,440 Speaker 1: has because of her contact, because of her connection with 203 00:11:11,520 --> 00:11:14,480 Speaker 1: the different governments and what she accomplished at the I M. S. 204 00:11:15,000 --> 00:11:18,000 Speaker 1: I think also she will be in a very interesting 205 00:11:18,000 --> 00:11:22,199 Speaker 1: position along with the new heads at the EU Commission 206 00:11:22,480 --> 00:11:25,960 Speaker 1: and Council, of dealing with Brexit, because Brexit is not 207 00:11:26,040 --> 00:11:29,160 Speaker 1: only the political set of issues, but it's very much 208 00:11:29,200 --> 00:11:31,559 Speaker 1: also the set of issues or what policy will the 209 00:11:31,600 --> 00:11:34,240 Speaker 1: Bank of England take, What will be the into relationship 210 00:11:34,320 --> 00:11:37,560 Speaker 1: between the ECB and the Bank of England, what maybe 211 00:11:37,600 --> 00:11:41,000 Speaker 1: the impact, So she will immediately be thrown much more 212 00:11:41,080 --> 00:11:45,000 Speaker 1: into that, and it will also be a question of 213 00:11:45,120 --> 00:11:52,400 Speaker 1: basically very carefully and slowly monitoring growth in Europe. So 214 00:11:52,840 --> 00:11:55,480 Speaker 1: I guess as you're talking about the need for the 215 00:11:55,520 --> 00:11:59,120 Speaker 1: sort of political savvy, I'm struck by the counter argument 216 00:11:59,160 --> 00:12:03,280 Speaker 1: to this, the idea the more political essential bankhead gets, 217 00:12:03,800 --> 00:12:06,560 Speaker 1: the less economic focus it will become in the more 218 00:12:06,760 --> 00:12:11,200 Speaker 1: frankly arbitrary policy will become more hinged on the popular 219 00:12:11,320 --> 00:12:14,720 Speaker 1: sentiment of the time. And I'm just wondering, you know, 220 00:12:15,120 --> 00:12:18,720 Speaker 1: is that a concern of yours? Is there a historical 221 00:12:18,840 --> 00:12:22,720 Speaker 1: precedent in terms of an increasingly political central bank that 222 00:12:22,880 --> 00:12:27,600 Speaker 1: gives you comfort rather than pause. I'm not sure that 223 00:12:27,800 --> 00:12:32,359 Speaker 1: the central bank or any central bank will necessarily respond 224 00:12:32,720 --> 00:12:36,320 Speaker 1: to more popular sentiment. And in fact, if anything we've 225 00:12:36,320 --> 00:12:39,840 Speaker 1: seen with the said with your own power really the 226 00:12:39,920 --> 00:12:44,680 Speaker 1: ability to push back on sudden and acute political pressure. 227 00:12:45,400 --> 00:12:48,920 Speaker 1: So I think that if it's an issue of suddenly 228 00:12:49,000 --> 00:12:52,360 Speaker 1: seeing the central Bank the e c B is functioning 229 00:12:52,400 --> 00:12:55,400 Speaker 1: as an arm of German policy, I don't think that 230 00:12:55,440 --> 00:12:58,640 Speaker 1: will be the case. Um. I think right now what 231 00:12:58,760 --> 00:13:02,720 Speaker 1: it does show is a tighter German French partnership which 232 00:13:02,760 --> 00:13:07,320 Speaker 1: clearly brilliantly orchestrated, bringing in a German woman now as 233 00:13:07,320 --> 00:13:11,800 Speaker 1: a new Urslabander Lean as a new EU Commissioner president 234 00:13:11,840 --> 00:13:17,920 Speaker 1: and Christine Lagat at the ECB. That's one element, which yes, 235 00:13:18,080 --> 00:13:21,960 Speaker 1: is more political, but fundamentally what we saw with Droggy, 236 00:13:22,160 --> 00:13:24,360 Speaker 1: what we seem to have seen all along with the FED, 237 00:13:24,840 --> 00:13:28,320 Speaker 1: they seem to be very cautious and more responding to 238 00:13:28,440 --> 00:13:33,840 Speaker 1: in fact all of the economic facts, rather than responding 239 00:13:33,840 --> 00:13:38,880 Speaker 1: more at hoc to any particular sentiment. Irene Finelnigman, thank 240 00:13:38,880 --> 00:13:41,840 Speaker 1: you so much for joining us today. Irene finel Hanigman. 241 00:13:42,000 --> 00:13:45,520 Speaker 1: Is an adject professor of International Affairs at Columbia University 242 00:13:45,640 --> 00:13:49,280 Speaker 1: in New York, talking about Christine Lagarde's nomination to head 243 00:13:49,640 --> 00:14:09,120 Speaker 1: the ECB. Initially, when we talked about blockchain, it was 244 00:14:09,120 --> 00:14:11,360 Speaker 1: a sort of sexy, unknown thing that was going to 245 00:14:11,480 --> 00:14:15,280 Speaker 1: lead to the disruption of traditional currencies. Now it has 246 00:14:15,320 --> 00:14:17,440 Speaker 1: actually got a little bit more on the back burner, 247 00:14:17,480 --> 00:14:20,720 Speaker 1: and yet it has been increasingly adopted as a mainstay 248 00:14:21,240 --> 00:14:24,120 Speaker 1: for a lot of industries, and here to talk about it. 249 00:14:24,200 --> 00:14:27,680 Speaker 1: I'm so glad to say, as Bridget of Redlagon, she 250 00:14:27,760 --> 00:14:31,880 Speaker 1: is Senior vice president of Global Industries, Clients, Platforms and 251 00:14:32,000 --> 00:14:35,280 Speaker 1: Blockchain for IBM. Bridget, thank you so much for being 252 00:14:35,360 --> 00:14:37,960 Speaker 1: with us. Can you first just talk a little bit 253 00:14:38,120 --> 00:14:42,160 Speaker 1: about the adoption of blockchain across a variety of industries 254 00:14:42,200 --> 00:14:46,360 Speaker 1: so far? Yes, thanks Lisa for having me on the show. 255 00:14:46,400 --> 00:14:49,200 Speaker 1: Stem so happy to talk about it. So Yes, there's 256 00:14:49,240 --> 00:14:52,040 Speaker 1: been a lot of hype, as you said, around the 257 00:14:52,120 --> 00:14:56,720 Speaker 1: crypto and elements on the currency elements of blockchain, but 258 00:14:56,880 --> 00:15:01,760 Speaker 1: the real aspect of blockchain allows is very complex. Um 259 00:15:02,080 --> 00:15:09,520 Speaker 1: multi party processes or workflows between customers, competitors and industries 260 00:15:09,920 --> 00:15:14,800 Speaker 1: can be safely stored and exchanged in a way that 261 00:15:14,840 --> 00:15:19,520 Speaker 1: they can be shared between all participants and once something 262 00:15:19,560 --> 00:15:22,600 Speaker 1: is put on a blockchain, it can't be changed. We 263 00:15:22,600 --> 00:15:25,840 Speaker 1: could talk about it being immutable, which means that anything 264 00:15:25,880 --> 00:15:30,640 Speaker 1: that needs to show provenance will actually work fantastically on 265 00:15:30,680 --> 00:15:35,000 Speaker 1: a blockchain. So um, we are working with many enterprise 266 00:15:35,000 --> 00:15:38,840 Speaker 1: blockchains across diverse industries like shipping, which we've got some 267 00:15:38,840 --> 00:15:41,200 Speaker 1: big news I'll talk to you about later, but also 268 00:15:41,320 --> 00:15:45,880 Speaker 1: trust and provenance for food and food safety, diamonds and jewelry, 269 00:15:46,520 --> 00:15:51,520 Speaker 1: commodities trading UM and energy trading off a grid, UM, 270 00:15:51,760 --> 00:15:57,200 Speaker 1: carbon credits, plastic recycling. Um. So it's really in real 271 00:15:57,280 --> 00:16:02,040 Speaker 1: life aspects for big, big industries like food and and shipping, 272 00:16:02,360 --> 00:16:05,640 Speaker 1: but also small industries like microfinance in Kenya where we 273 00:16:05,640 --> 00:16:09,760 Speaker 1: actually have a microfinance blockchain. So particularly excited to see 274 00:16:09,760 --> 00:16:12,760 Speaker 1: the real work, so particulous a sense of how blockchain 275 00:16:12,880 --> 00:16:16,600 Speaker 1: is being used in the global shipping supply chain. Yes, 276 00:16:16,680 --> 00:16:20,240 Speaker 1: so so that that that poll so so Actually, just 277 00:16:20,640 --> 00:16:26,880 Speaker 1: yesterday we announced that our trade lanes are shipping blockchain 278 00:16:27,040 --> 00:16:31,000 Speaker 1: for the shipping industry has An. We've announced that we 279 00:16:31,080 --> 00:16:34,200 Speaker 1: have two new members, Huppuck Lloyd and O N. E. 280 00:16:34,400 --> 00:16:38,040 Speaker 1: And this follows the news in May that CMA, CGM 281 00:16:38,120 --> 00:16:41,080 Speaker 1: and Mediterranean Shipping Company would be on the platform. We 282 00:16:41,160 --> 00:16:43,880 Speaker 1: started this a couple of years ago with MIRSK and 283 00:16:44,040 --> 00:16:47,840 Speaker 1: we are now in a situation where fifteen ocean carrier 284 00:16:47,880 --> 00:16:51,800 Speaker 1: lines are on the blockchain called trade lens Are blockchain, 285 00:16:52,240 --> 00:16:55,840 Speaker 1: and more than half of the world's ocean container cargo 286 00:16:56,240 --> 00:16:59,560 Speaker 1: will be available on this block chain. So so with 287 00:16:59,600 --> 00:17:02,880 Speaker 1: a users already, a hundred participants already. So why is 288 00:17:02,920 --> 00:17:05,919 Speaker 1: this important and what's the blockchain impact? Well, if you 289 00:17:05,920 --> 00:17:09,760 Speaker 1: think about it, nine of everything we use every day 290 00:17:09,960 --> 00:17:12,560 Speaker 1: is shipped over the oceans. It is the most primary 291 00:17:13,200 --> 00:17:17,600 Speaker 1: area of transport. And there's an estimate that around twenty 292 00:17:17,680 --> 00:17:22,800 Speaker 1: pc of the cost of shipping an item is in documents, 293 00:17:23,240 --> 00:17:27,120 Speaker 1: um and time wasted because of poor documentation. So an average, 294 00:17:27,359 --> 00:17:31,320 Speaker 1: an average simple shipment will have around two hundred documents exchange, 295 00:17:31,680 --> 00:17:35,240 Speaker 1: around three hundred different people involved, all on paper, all 296 00:17:35,280 --> 00:17:38,480 Speaker 1: on different systems. And so what we are able to 297 00:17:38,520 --> 00:17:43,040 Speaker 1: do is we've created an integrated, trusted blockchain platform where 298 00:17:43,119 --> 00:17:46,399 Speaker 1: every participant in the shipping cycle to think about a 299 00:17:46,440 --> 00:17:49,680 Speaker 1: freight forwarder, the person who's shipping the goods, the carriers 300 00:17:49,760 --> 00:17:54,679 Speaker 1: the customs, the ports, the the carrier, the land carrier 301 00:17:54,960 --> 00:17:59,120 Speaker 1: will all share that data on the block blockchain and 302 00:17:59,480 --> 00:18:02,720 Speaker 1: be able to instantly and there's kind of like one 303 00:18:02,880 --> 00:18:06,040 Speaker 1: version of the truths. So what that allows you to do, right, 304 00:18:06,600 --> 00:18:10,159 Speaker 1: is that anyone can quickly pinpoint where their cargo is 305 00:18:10,160 --> 00:18:15,840 Speaker 1: located the state of its availability. That reduces portant terminal congestion, 306 00:18:15,920 --> 00:18:20,399 Speaker 1: reduces time for truckers, reduces customs and inspections delays um 307 00:18:20,440 --> 00:18:23,919 Speaker 1: and ultimately shortens the lead time. So then so we 308 00:18:23,920 --> 00:18:26,119 Speaker 1: go ahead. I really wanted to just pick up on 309 00:18:26,320 --> 00:18:29,960 Speaker 1: one point. You said that twenty of shipping costs stem 310 00:18:30,040 --> 00:18:33,560 Speaker 1: from the documentation process, and I'm just wondering if you 311 00:18:33,600 --> 00:18:37,320 Speaker 1: could address how much you expect using the blockchain for 312 00:18:37,480 --> 00:18:41,959 Speaker 1: the shipping industry could reduce the cost. So so we 313 00:18:42,200 --> 00:18:45,159 Speaker 1: we we We are using data actually supplied by the 314 00:18:45,200 --> 00:18:48,639 Speaker 1: World Economic Forum, and the World Economic Forum believes that 315 00:18:48,720 --> 00:18:52,920 Speaker 1: reducing barriers within the international supply chain, which means really 316 00:18:52,960 --> 00:18:55,720 Speaker 1: the things I've talked about, you know, speeding speeding up, 317 00:18:55,720 --> 00:19:01,000 Speaker 1: reducing documentation, improving lead times, reducing delays, using spoilage because 318 00:19:01,040 --> 00:19:03,640 Speaker 1: things are sitting there. There's a view that that could 319 00:19:03,880 --> 00:19:09,639 Speaker 1: um increase GDP worldwide GDP by five and total trade 320 00:19:09,720 --> 00:19:13,200 Speaker 1: volume by fifteen percent. So those are those are those 321 00:19:13,240 --> 00:19:18,040 Speaker 1: are significant. Um if you think about economic impact factors, 322 00:19:18,080 --> 00:19:22,040 Speaker 1: both in terms of reducing costs but also um increasing 323 00:19:22,080 --> 00:19:24,800 Speaker 1: inclusion for people to be able to actually ship globally 324 00:19:25,200 --> 00:19:28,720 Speaker 1: and to export um so so again, using the World 325 00:19:28,720 --> 00:19:32,119 Speaker 1: Economic Forum, there's an estimate that improved these kinds of 326 00:19:32,160 --> 00:19:37,680 Speaker 1: improvements would improve by around fifteen percent. So we were 327 00:19:37,760 --> 00:19:40,040 Speaker 1: were we are, we are, we are we are. One 328 00:19:40,040 --> 00:19:42,800 Speaker 1: of the reasons I think that the whole industry is 329 00:19:43,400 --> 00:19:46,080 Speaker 1: is really stepping up and getting involved in this blockchain 330 00:19:46,520 --> 00:19:50,480 Speaker 1: is because it does benefit every participant in this ecosystem 331 00:19:50,520 --> 00:19:52,600 Speaker 1: to solve a problem it couldn't be solved in another way. 332 00:19:52,760 --> 00:19:55,120 Speaker 1: That is fascinating. I mean, the five percent GDP left 333 00:19:55,160 --> 00:19:58,280 Speaker 1: would be uh, you know, monumental. What the see how 334 00:19:58,280 --> 00:20:00,480 Speaker 1: that plays our Bridget Vancrology and think you so much. 335 00:20:00,560 --> 00:20:04,080 Speaker 1: Bridget is senior vice president of Global Industries, Clients, Platforms, 336 00:20:04,119 --> 00:20:22,560 Speaker 1: and Blockchain for IBM. Broadcom tries again after the debacle 337 00:20:22,600 --> 00:20:27,119 Speaker 1: with Qualcom. Broadcom now in advanced talks to buy cybersecurity 338 00:20:27,160 --> 00:20:32,440 Speaker 1: from Symantec Corporation. Cybersecurity obviously a very hot field right now, 339 00:20:32,520 --> 00:20:35,520 Speaker 1: given how many threats there are from hackers. Joining us 340 00:20:35,520 --> 00:20:37,440 Speaker 1: now to talk about the deal, Man Deep Sing, senior 341 00:20:37,480 --> 00:20:40,760 Speaker 1: tech industry analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, very much in the 342 00:20:40,840 --> 00:20:43,719 Speaker 1: office and present and analyzing this deal onto this pre 343 00:20:43,880 --> 00:20:47,120 Speaker 1: July four day in New York City. So, uh, Man Deep, 344 00:20:47,440 --> 00:20:49,040 Speaker 1: what can you tell us about this deal that you 345 00:20:49,080 --> 00:20:52,639 Speaker 1: find most interesting? Well, this steal is very similar to 346 00:20:52,680 --> 00:20:55,960 Speaker 1: what Broadcom did with c A last year, and Water 347 00:20:56,119 --> 00:20:59,240 Speaker 1: tells you is the company is trying to diversify from 348 00:20:59,280 --> 00:21:02,439 Speaker 1: hardware to software. It's fairly obvious this deal has the 349 00:21:02,480 --> 00:21:06,840 Speaker 1: exact same characteristics. Four billion dollars in revenue from Semantic 350 00:21:07,280 --> 00:21:11,359 Speaker 1: and the company Semantic has been, you know, under performing 351 00:21:11,400 --> 00:21:13,080 Speaker 1: for the last three years. When you look at the 352 00:21:13,080 --> 00:21:17,880 Speaker 1: cybersecurity market, which is extremely fragmented, Semantic hasn't been able 353 00:21:17,920 --> 00:21:21,560 Speaker 1: to turn itself around. They have had four CEO changes 354 00:21:22,240 --> 00:21:24,919 Speaker 1: and now you know they don't even have a permanent CEO. 355 00:21:25,160 --> 00:21:28,320 Speaker 1: So it looks like it's right in the playbook of 356 00:21:28,440 --> 00:21:32,600 Speaker 1: hawkt Hand, the CEO of Broadcam. He really could execute 357 00:21:32,600 --> 00:21:36,200 Speaker 1: on this one. And there are some synergies that obviously 358 00:21:36,240 --> 00:21:38,680 Speaker 1: will come about when this deal gets announced or these 359 00:21:38,680 --> 00:21:41,600 Speaker 1: Broadcom folks are really active on the M and A front. 360 00:21:41,600 --> 00:21:44,119 Speaker 1: I mean, is Lisa mentioned Qualcom that deal was blocked 361 00:21:44,160 --> 00:21:47,160 Speaker 1: by President Trump, but they bought ce A last year. 362 00:21:48,040 --> 00:21:50,760 Speaker 1: Is the street backing up this management in this board 363 00:21:50,800 --> 00:21:53,480 Speaker 1: in terms of this aggressive acquisition policy? They are and 364 00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:56,679 Speaker 1: Broadcom is a serial acquirer. You can see that. You know, 365 00:21:56,960 --> 00:21:59,600 Speaker 1: It's something that I feel it's in the DNA of 366 00:21:59,640 --> 00:22:01,960 Speaker 1: the company, and they execute very well. So if this 367 00:22:02,359 --> 00:22:04,480 Speaker 1: anybody out there, you know, and when it comes to 368 00:22:04,600 --> 00:22:08,600 Speaker 1: large tech that can really turn around Semantic and fix it, 369 00:22:08,600 --> 00:22:11,800 Speaker 1: it's going to be Broadcom. And and so from that perspective, 370 00:22:11,840 --> 00:22:13,720 Speaker 1: it makes a lot of sense when you talk about 371 00:22:13,760 --> 00:22:16,520 Speaker 1: synergies what are they because I do think of Broadcom 372 00:22:16,520 --> 00:22:19,040 Speaker 1: as being a hardware story and I think of Semantic 373 00:22:19,119 --> 00:22:22,440 Speaker 1: as being a software company. Sure, so what Broadcom has 374 00:22:22,440 --> 00:22:26,520 Speaker 1: showed with CIA integration is obviously there are some revenue 375 00:22:26,520 --> 00:22:30,000 Speaker 1: synergies because they cater to an enterprise customer base. So 376 00:22:30,080 --> 00:22:35,400 Speaker 1: Semantex's revenue half of it comes from enterprise. So over 377 00:22:35,440 --> 00:22:38,480 Speaker 1: there you could see now that Broadcom has a footprint 378 00:22:38,480 --> 00:22:42,719 Speaker 1: and infrastructure software with CIA integration, they can really leverage 379 00:22:42,720 --> 00:22:45,920 Speaker 1: Semantic on the enterprise side. On the consumer side, which 380 00:22:45,960 --> 00:22:50,480 Speaker 1: is Semantec's flagship Norton product and the Lifelog business, I'm 381 00:22:50,520 --> 00:22:52,960 Speaker 1: not sure if there are any imminent synergies, especially on 382 00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:56,800 Speaker 1: the revenue side. On the cost side, yes, there are 383 00:22:56,960 --> 00:23:00,640 Speaker 1: some synergies that will come about simply because this company 384 00:23:00,720 --> 00:23:03,199 Speaker 1: is too big. Their skills in marketing expenses are very 385 00:23:03,280 --> 00:23:06,080 Speaker 1: high for Semantic, and you can see there are some 386 00:23:06,119 --> 00:23:08,479 Speaker 1: cost synergies over there. So obviously this deal has not 387 00:23:08,560 --> 00:23:12,480 Speaker 1: been announced. Speculating that it will occur any senses to evaluation. 388 00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:16,520 Speaker 1: I'm just looking at Broadcom stockdown about almost four percent today. Um, 389 00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:19,520 Speaker 1: is there a risk here that they might overpay? Well, 390 00:23:20,280 --> 00:23:22,879 Speaker 1: one thing is they're more likely to go for a 391 00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:27,359 Speaker 1: stock deal simply because Broadcom trads at about five to 392 00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:30,480 Speaker 1: six time sales. Semantech trads at about three to four 393 00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:33,359 Speaker 1: time sales. So I can see, you know, why a 394 00:23:33,400 --> 00:23:36,280 Speaker 1: Broadcom may be interested in using their stock more. And 395 00:23:36,320 --> 00:23:39,359 Speaker 1: we've seen that salesforce, you know, buying tablet with an 396 00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:44,200 Speaker 1: all stock offer. So given the leverage situation with Broadcom, 397 00:23:44,320 --> 00:23:48,639 Speaker 1: they're more likely to use some stock here. One thing 398 00:23:48,680 --> 00:23:51,760 Speaker 1: I'm curious about is why is Broadcom so aggressive. Why 399 00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:56,240 Speaker 1: is their playbook acquisitions to such a degree. Well, look 400 00:23:56,280 --> 00:24:00,440 Speaker 1: at it this way. Broadcom's DNA at the company is 401 00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:04,960 Speaker 1: built around hardware. They're really trying to you know, uh 402 00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:09,120 Speaker 1: and and hardware businesses have lower ebit dum margins operating margins, 403 00:24:09,160 --> 00:24:11,560 Speaker 1: so I think what software gives them. In this case, 404 00:24:11,560 --> 00:24:16,320 Speaker 1: Semantech has operating margins over thirty So now with c 405 00:24:16,560 --> 00:24:21,359 Speaker 1: A and Semantech broadcomps operating margin profile goes up simply 406 00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:24,399 Speaker 1: because software businesses are attractive. So are we going to 407 00:24:24,520 --> 00:24:27,879 Speaker 1: see more M and A here in the security cybersecurity space? 408 00:24:27,880 --> 00:24:30,440 Speaker 1: I mean, Lisa correctly pointed out that, boy, it's it's 409 00:24:30,440 --> 00:24:32,080 Speaker 1: a hot area. Do you think it's going to see 410 00:24:32,080 --> 00:24:36,080 Speaker 1: more consolidation there? Absolutely? Cybersecurity is one area in the 411 00:24:36,320 --> 00:24:39,760 Speaker 1: of the software market that's very fragmented. There are new 412 00:24:39,800 --> 00:24:42,719 Speaker 1: attacks happening every day, there are new companies popping up 413 00:24:42,760 --> 00:24:45,679 Speaker 1: every day that solve those attacks. And you know, the 414 00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:51,080 Speaker 1: fragmentation is a nightmare for enterprises because they're just putting 415 00:24:51,119 --> 00:24:53,920 Speaker 1: band aids, you know, putting one solution on top of another. 416 00:24:54,400 --> 00:24:57,440 Speaker 1: And from an enterprise perspective, they want to see some 417 00:24:57,480 --> 00:25:00,960 Speaker 1: consolidation in the cybersecurity space. So if you've already seen 418 00:25:01,040 --> 00:25:04,239 Speaker 1: the likes of Paul Altel and Fortnet, and you know 419 00:25:04,320 --> 00:25:08,359 Speaker 1: the next gen firewall security companies being acquisitive, you're gonna 420 00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:10,439 Speaker 1: see more of fit. I think with this deal, I 421 00:25:10,440 --> 00:25:12,240 Speaker 1: feel like people just want to throw all the smart 422 00:25:12,280 --> 00:25:15,399 Speaker 1: people in cybersecurity programming in a room and say, just 423 00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:17,320 Speaker 1: go figure out what's next. I say, if I were 424 00:25:17,359 --> 00:25:19,119 Speaker 1: a young engineer coming out of school, I'd be like, 425 00:25:19,160 --> 00:25:21,119 Speaker 1: I'm gonna be a forget the app thing. I'm gonna 426 00:25:21,119 --> 00:25:24,080 Speaker 1: be a cybersecurity expert, because that's just like a growth 427 00:25:24,600 --> 00:25:27,360 Speaker 1: second industry for I can't forever. Do you have time 428 00:25:27,359 --> 00:25:31,520 Speaker 1: to have lunch with my son? Of course? Excellent men, 429 00:25:31,600 --> 00:25:33,600 Speaker 1: Deep saying thank you so much. Mendep Has, senior tech 430 00:25:33,640 --> 00:25:37,040 Speaker 1: industry annalyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. Thanks for listening to the 431 00:25:37,080 --> 00:25:39,800 Speaker 1: Bloomberg P ANDL podcast. You can subscribe and listen to 432 00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:43,080 Speaker 1: interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer. 433 00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:46,240 Speaker 1: Paul Sweeney, I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. I'm Lisa 434 00:25:46,240 --> 00:25:48,880 Speaker 1: Abram Woyds. I'm on Twitter at Lisa A. Bramwit's one 435 00:25:49,080 --> 00:25:51,719 Speaker 1: before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide I'm 436 00:25:51,720 --> 00:25:52,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio