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Speaker 1: It's the Favorites Podcast presented by FanDuel. Football season is here,

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Speaker 1: or visit www. One eight hundred gambler dot net in

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Speaker 1: West Virginia. Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast from the

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Speaker 1: Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Mollman, Chief Content Officer

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Speaker 1: of the Action Network. I am joined as I am

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Speaker 1: every episode by my co host, my companion Mike and

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Speaker 1: padre my BFF professional better Simon Hunter. Breathe it in, Chad,

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Speaker 1: Breathe it in. Brother. I love football so much, and

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Speaker 1: I feel like I love it more and more every

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Speaker 1: single year. I was driving my kid to school this

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Speaker 1: morning and we were talking about the games, and I'm

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Speaker 1: just telling me how much I love football and how

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Speaker 1: much I can't wait for the game tonight. Then I

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Speaker 1: went into this whole speech about testasterone, like I just

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Speaker 1: want you to punch a hole in the fucking chest.

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Speaker 1: The dude could not get out of the car fast enough.

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Speaker 1: I think if if I had been on a highway,

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Speaker 1: he would have jumped out at seven two in the morning.

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Speaker 1: Get what you mean? Like, I literally it's like I

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Speaker 1: feel like a kid. I could not sleep last night,

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Speaker 1: even though it's just one game. I know it's gonna

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Speaker 1: be a a way where Saturday I'll probably again I'm not

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Speaker 1: much of a drinker, I'll definitely drink all day Saturday,

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Speaker 1: just so I can just go to bed and then

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Speaker 1: finally just wake up and football would be here Sunday morning.

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Speaker 1: But man, just just thinking about the matchup tonight of

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Speaker 1: Stafford Josh Allen kicking it off. It's just it's the

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Speaker 1: best brother, and that's why football is truly king. Someone

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Speaker 1: was joking the other day with me about it. They're like,

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Speaker 1: there's no other sport the two worst teams could play

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Speaker 1: like the Browns in Carolina, and we talked about it

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Speaker 1: all week. I was like, it's so true. What what

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Speaker 1: other sports do you care like that? But in football,

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Speaker 1: people care, they care a lot. Let's get right to it.

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Speaker 1: Let's not DEALI dadly, we got a lot to talk about.

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Speaker 1: We will get down to our final five favorite picks.

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Speaker 1: You can follow that in the Phase five in the

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Speaker 1: Action Network app. We probably won't officially lock it until Sunday.

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Speaker 1: You can follow all the picks we put in in

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Speaker 1: the Favorites podcast handle in the Action Network app. We're

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Speaker 1: gonna end the show on Scooch roulette where we each

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Speaker 1: sort of choose our pick and we go head to head.

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Speaker 1: We'll have a round robin parlay, money line underdog round

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Speaker 1: robin parlay. We will do a survivor pick. We will

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Speaker 1: have a big ball better the week. But as always

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Speaker 1: on the Thursday show, we start with sharp calls. Hello,

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Speaker 1: who's there? I'm talking sign the who called you to

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Speaker 1: tell you we were making bad decisions? No surprise, it's

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Speaker 1: mainly people talking trash to me. Like I predicted, I

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Speaker 1: had a couple of guys reach out that love our

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Speaker 1: picks and a couple of always getting in the call

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Speaker 1: of being you have to take this one. You guys

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Speaker 1: are idiots if you don't put this in your five.

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Speaker 1: And I would say the one that kept coming up

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Speaker 1: was Atlanta. I feel like the pros loved that number.

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Speaker 1: They love the fact that it hasn't moved right. Why

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Speaker 1: isn't it gotten the six? Everyone and their grandma has

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Speaker 1: been teasing the Saints. They've been betting the Saints. It

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Speaker 1: is funny how many of them loved it. And I

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Speaker 1: joked to myself, I liked it too, but that was

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Speaker 1: when you were on early on. You like that number?

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Speaker 1: Right when it came out. Um, you know, of course

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Speaker 1: I thought it was gonna move. I thought we were

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Speaker 1: gonna able to get a better number. But obviously the

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Speaker 1: books have taken a stand. They just kept it there. Uh,

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Speaker 1: they've kept it kind of at the five and a half,

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Speaker 1: they touched six just for a little bit, and I

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Speaker 1: got bet right back down to five and a half.

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Speaker 1: So to me, it makes sense. I feel like me

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Speaker 1: and You're gonna end up having that one in one

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Speaker 1: of our five just because pros trust love it. Me

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Speaker 1: and you both already loved it. When when the numbers

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Speaker 1: match up with what other pros are saying, that's usually

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Speaker 1: what me and Chad we take those numbers. Uh, the

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Speaker 1: biggestcrepancy is gonna be our Tennessee Giants. Pick I knew

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Speaker 1: that going into it, and they hate when I say

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Speaker 1: this to him, but I just love the phrase sharp trap,

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Speaker 1: and it feels like a sharp trap. Like all the

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Speaker 1: trends point to taking the Giants every year. People want

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Speaker 1: the Giants to be good. Honestly, you can go back

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Speaker 1: to any podcast at this point before the season starts

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Speaker 1: and they will be talking about how the Giants were

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Speaker 1: gonna be different this upcoming season and how they were

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Speaker 1: going to be improved. I mean, who was your last coach, judge,

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Speaker 1: We heard this whole time there. I just can't get

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Speaker 1: behind them. So I understand where these pros are coming from, right,

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Speaker 1: new regime, Daniel Jones being coached up, maybe he'll be

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Speaker 1: better this year. And I kept firing back of them.

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Speaker 1: You're talking about Daniel Jones in a new system, yere

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Speaker 1: one with a rookie head coach on the road against

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Speaker 1: the coach of the year and the one seed in

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Speaker 1: the FC last year, all healthy again. We'll talk about

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Speaker 1: this game, I'm sure, But I just if this was

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Speaker 1: week seven or eight, I'd be with them, like I

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Speaker 1: would feel like this would be a good time spot

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Speaker 1: to take this Giant's team if they were being undervalued.

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Speaker 1: To me, the Giants are being overvalued. And the fact

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Speaker 1: that so many professionals are calling me and saying how

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Speaker 1: much they loved it, that just feels like they're walking

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Speaker 1: into one. So those are the two biggest ones talked about.

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Speaker 1: It funny that it's both at five and a half number, right,

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Speaker 1: a dead number, But that's what a lot of guys

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Speaker 1: who were calling me about, just being like I hate

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Speaker 1: that bad that you and Chat are making. It's making

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Speaker 1: me like an even more Chat. I don't know about you. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: we're gonna talk about Survivor and a little bit. But

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Speaker 1: the Titans have sneakily become probably one of my two

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Speaker 1: top Survivor plays. And I'm in a bunch of different

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Speaker 1: Survivor uh pools, and so I've i've you know, played

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Speaker 1: the Titans as one of my teams and a couple

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Speaker 1: of these pools. UM. I listened to Stucky and Chris

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Speaker 1: RayBan and the Action Network podcast this morning. It's great.

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Speaker 1: Go downloaded Action Network podcast, rate review, subscribe. They'll go

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Speaker 1: through their Sunday six pack. Uh, they had the Giants

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Speaker 1: and their Sunday six paths. It makes no sense to me.

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Speaker 1: They love Daniel Jones road Underdog, Splits nine and oh

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Speaker 1: on the road as an underdog. We all know that

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Speaker 1: he's much better on the road than at home. But

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Speaker 1: it's the Giants, and it's Daniel Jones, and it's a

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Speaker 1: rookie coach, and it's a new system. All the things

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Speaker 1: that you just said are true. And it's Mike Rabel,

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Speaker 1: who's just a good coach with a better team at home.

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Speaker 1: It's a dead number of five and a half. I

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Speaker 1: could see them winning by a touchdown. I could see

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Speaker 1: them blowing them out. Yeah, especially with a fully healthy,

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Speaker 1: fresh tires. Derrick Henry, like the guy has just been

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Speaker 1: waiting for this. So yeah, we're not saying seven or eight.

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Speaker 1: Me and Chat would be all over the Giants team.

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Speaker 1: I just think this is just a bad spot for

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Speaker 1: them to start in. Meanwhile, and we'll get to this.

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Speaker 1: Why don't we Why don't we just start there? We

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Speaker 1: love love love Atlanta plus five and a half. Um,

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Speaker 1: the wise guys told you they love Atlanta plus five

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Speaker 1: and a half. I am becoming more convinced of this

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Speaker 1: bet as the week goes on. Think about this. We're

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Speaker 1: talking about a team in the New Orleans Saints, a

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Speaker 1: new coach and a quarterback playing together and coaching together

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Speaker 1: for the first time. A coach in Dennis Allen. It's

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Speaker 1: not like he lit the world on fire the last

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Speaker 1: time he was a head coach, right Sean Payton, who

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Speaker 1: had a brilliant career in New Orleans, A brilliant career

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Speaker 1: as a coach who covers the spread in New Orleans. Um,

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Speaker 1: I don't know why there is any love for this

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Speaker 1: Saints team. I don't get it, like this is a

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Speaker 1: a smash spot for me on the Falcons. Yeah, and

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Speaker 1: Sean Payne's claimed the fame. He took his son's one

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Speaker 1: and nine team to a tenant O team the next year.

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Speaker 1: This man is a genius. Yeah. Rookie head coaches, right,

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Speaker 1: we've seen the numbers are guy. Evan Abrams put it

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Speaker 1: out three and night team straight up. Since rookie head

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Speaker 1: coaches in their first start, there's a reason it's so

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Speaker 1: damn hard in this league. And to prepare your guys

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Speaker 1: and not to be caught up in the moment during

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Speaker 1: the game is even harder, right, Like, these guys canna

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Speaker 1: have all the prep they want in the world. Something's

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Speaker 1: gonna happen. It's gonna throw them off, and it's about

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Speaker 1: how can they handle that. Where you're looking across the

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Speaker 1: field and you have coaches that have been there, they

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Speaker 1: know the grind of the NFL. They've been in the

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Speaker 1: position of being a head coach. To me, that is

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Speaker 1: an advantage And I get it. Arthur Smith, who the

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Speaker 1: hell is he? He did nothing with this Atlanta team

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Speaker 1: last year. I still like what he did in the

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Speaker 1: offensive side, though, I still think this guy is a

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Speaker 1: smart mastermind on the offensive side, where yeah, you could

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Speaker 1: say what you want. Matt Ryan was not bad last year.

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Speaker 1: He played well for this Atlanta team. The struggles for

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Speaker 1: them were on their defensive side, which they tried to

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Speaker 1: address this offseason the draft. So divisional game, this number

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Speaker 1: should be three three and a half. People have just

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Speaker 1: been bashing Atlanta all off season. That's why this number

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Speaker 1: keeps growing. People just keep betting the Saints and then

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Speaker 1: I finally stopped. I'm telling you the books are telling

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Speaker 1: you something. They stopped like that. They're taking a hard stance. Again.

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Speaker 1: We're not gonna win every bet we take the this

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Speaker 1: me and Chad, when we take dogs like this, when

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Speaker 1: it's a number like this that's just been paused for

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Speaker 1: multiple weeks and you're gonna ride with the books, you

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Speaker 1: usually feel good because they're obviously they know something. When

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Speaker 1: we have numbers backing it up, we think it should

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Speaker 1: be three or three and a half. That's another thing

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Speaker 1: we're looking for. And just the fact that it's a

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Speaker 1: divisional game, Chad, you know that, like we already have

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Speaker 1: a bunch of bets a home dog divisional game week

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Speaker 1: one that's just an auto player for us. So again

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Speaker 1: another Trendsen it's five and up taking that home dog

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Speaker 1: e t s so we just cannot take it land

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Speaker 1: on this position, Sam again, we'll talk about it as

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Speaker 1: we come up here. On Houston. Another position where you

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Speaker 1: just kind of have to hold your nose and take

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Speaker 1: a gross dog divisional dogs in week once it's two

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Speaker 1: thousand four, two and two against the spread over the

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Speaker 1: last eight years, nine and nine. All of that is

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Speaker 1: from Raybon in the Action Network podcast. I'm blatantly stealing it,

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Speaker 1: but it's good and it fits our narrative, so I'm

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Speaker 1: going to share it. Um. And by the way, that

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Speaker 1: number and that percentage, the sample size is much smaller,

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Speaker 1: but the percentage, the coverage percentage for dogs when they

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Speaker 1: are of greater than three explodes. Um. So we got

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Speaker 1: a lot of those situations this week. I like it.

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Speaker 1: I like it. I like it a lot. Well. The

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Speaker 1: only reason I love doing these trends for honest because

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Speaker 1: that was a legalization happened across America, which to me

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Speaker 1: is more of a sample than just when we're all

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Speaker 1: of our data is kind of just from one area

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Speaker 1: in the country in Vegas, right. So to me, that's

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Speaker 1: why I try to use the thing on But like

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Speaker 1: Chad said, you can keep going back. If anything, dogs

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Speaker 1: have just gotten better for us as That's like my

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Speaker 1: whole point of this is like we get more value

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Speaker 1: now because the legalization, because so much more public money

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Speaker 1: is coming on the favorites. Um. But I agree with Chad,

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Speaker 1: you can go back as far as you want. It's

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Speaker 1: always gonna port point of taking these home divisional dogs.

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Speaker 1: One point of clarity, our data comes from books around

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Speaker 1: the world since twenty oh three, literally millions of data points,

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Speaker 1: not just Vegas. Um. But I do think that since

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Speaker 1: with legalization also the game opening up, like there's different

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Speaker 1: rules that are taking place, like a year after year.

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Speaker 1: I don't know how much they know in Europe or

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Speaker 1: Asia about American football, but I get what Chad's point is.

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Speaker 1: Let's say, when I say around the world, I don't

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Speaker 1: necessarily Europe in Asia? Were you talking Iceland to No,

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Speaker 1: I'm talking about maybe places that are offshore, right right,

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Speaker 1: I know, I'm just um, so let's talk about the

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Speaker 1: other one that we were really into. So, by the way,

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Speaker 1: I'm going to make Atlanta plus five and a half.

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Speaker 1: That's We're in. We're in. It's literally what the show

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Speaker 1: is all about. Just a gross gross gross dog get

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Speaker 1: used to it. People be uncomfortable. Betting means doing bad things.

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Speaker 1: That's it. Gross bets, gross profits. Houston, Houston Man, We

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Speaker 1: loved Houston at plus eight and a half. This line

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Speaker 1: moved aggressively over the forty eight hours from say Sunday

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Speaker 1: until we did our show earlier in the week. It

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Speaker 1: is now seven and a half and I'm getting a

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Speaker 1: hook at seven and a half. I still like it. Uh,

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Speaker 1: still a majority of the tickets on the Colts, massive

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Speaker 1: amount of money on the Texans. Wise, guys love this game.

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Speaker 1: You and I love this game. If we can get

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Speaker 1: the seven and a half, we still take it. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: still still think that's such a key number. We would

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Speaker 1: still take it. A few books. You can get it

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Speaker 1: at uh fandel or a Lovely Sponsor. They still have

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Speaker 1: actually have the seven a half up. They went to seven.

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Speaker 1: I don't even know. That was maybe in two or

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Speaker 1: three in the morning today, and then as soon as

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Speaker 1: I woke up again at six seven in the morning,

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Speaker 1: I was back to seven and a half. So kind

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Speaker 1: of kind of thing where they've moved the number the

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Speaker 1: public keeps coming backing on, so they keep bumping it

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Speaker 1: back up, or it's just I don't know, they're kind

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Speaker 1: of they're kind of playing both sides here. It's a

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Speaker 1: little interesting, uh, But to me, yeah, we can go

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Speaker 1: through the matchups of these how these two teams matches up,

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Speaker 1: But it's more about the Colds team in general. Right

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Speaker 1: This Cold Steam historically is horrible on the first week

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Speaker 1: of the season. I believe it's the eight straight seasons

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Speaker 1: they haven't won Week one. It's it's bad. It's it's

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Speaker 1: a cold team that historically has coming out slow as

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Speaker 1: well under Frank Reich. My biggest thing looking at this

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Speaker 1: game is what happens in these early weeks, in these

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Speaker 1: divisional games. And I keep going back to that Jaguars

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Speaker 1: year where they were one in fifteen and there are

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Speaker 1: one win with Gordon Minshew game Week one against Philip

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Speaker 1: Rivers where Philip Rivers did not punt, He played almost

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Speaker 1: a perfect game. I think they put up thirty four

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Speaker 1: thirty one points and they still somehow lost to a

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Speaker 1: Jaguars team that didn't win didn't win for the rest

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Speaker 1: of the year. I think that's a perfect summary for

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Speaker 1: what week one is it's just madness. It's kind of

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Speaker 1: just pure chaos, and we're trying to lean into that,

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Speaker 1: and again we're not. We didn't talk with the Jets

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Speaker 1: game yet that because that number got seven a half.

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Speaker 1: But this was the biggest number all year, right the

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Speaker 1: whole off season, this was up to seven a half,

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Speaker 1: eight eight and a half. Been fluctuating and now Chad's

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Speaker 1: talked about these trends. People are getting smarter, the public

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Speaker 1: setting smarter. They're hearing about these trends right what we're

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Speaker 1: talking about here. So to me, it makes sense of

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Speaker 1: the pros are on it. It's cool to the public

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Speaker 1: is coming out as well. But I get if you

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Speaker 1: want to take it. But to me, if if in

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Speaker 1: our contest, especially anyone's contest, you're getting and a half

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Speaker 1: the Sonato play, this is a no brainer. You have

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Speaker 1: to play at that number seven in your contest, I'd

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Speaker 1: start thinking about it. For me and Chad, those seven

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Speaker 1: and a half to eight and a half, we're playing

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Speaker 1: this number even if you're not in a contest seven

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Speaker 1: and a half or higher. If you don't play this,

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Speaker 1: we're failing you as podcast. So we haven't convinced you

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Speaker 1: if we haven't convinced you the value in taking a

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Speaker 1: seven and a half eight eight and a half divisional

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Speaker 1: home underdog in Week one against the team that historically

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Speaker 1: starts slow with this head coach, What are we fucking

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Speaker 1: doing here? What is our raised on day tree? Uh?

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Speaker 1: Or you can't fight you can't fight at people. This

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Speaker 1: is literally you gotta get used to doing this stuff

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Speaker 1: because again we sound crazy right now, but calm Monday,

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Speaker 1: it's gonna all make sense. So this is the biggest

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Speaker 1: pros Joe's game on the board. Right We talked about

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Speaker 1: pros and Joe's. We talked about the betting. Tickets that

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Speaker 1: come in is usually an indication of what the squares

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Speaker 1: the Jo's are betting, and the money is usually an

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Speaker 1: indication of what the professionals are betting. Right now, there

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Speaker 1: is no bigger pro Joe discrepancy on the board. There's

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Speaker 1: fift of the tickets are coming in on the Colts

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Speaker 1: and eighty six percent of the money is coming in

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Speaker 1: on the Texans. That should tell you something right there,

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Speaker 1: because with tickets coming in on the Colts, they still

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Speaker 1: haven't moved the number up, They've moved it down. That

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Speaker 1: tells you that the professionals are coming in on the

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Speaker 1: Houston Texans Lions plus four against your Eagles. This to

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Speaker 1: me is becoming a little bit of a trendy dog

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Speaker 1: this week. It's still a pros play. Like of the

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Speaker 1: tickets on the Eagles, about sixty three of the money

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Speaker 1: on the Lions plus four. So much love for the

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Speaker 1: Eagles right now? Are we getting too much, wise guy

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Speaker 1: love for the Lions. We've been buying the hype all summer?

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Speaker 1: Are people catching up? Are we wrong? Are we just deceived?

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Speaker 1: What do you think? It's definitely definitely one of the

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Speaker 1: more trendy home dogs this week, right. I mean people

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Speaker 1: are talking about them, not just the hard knocks factory.

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Speaker 1: I think it's everything. All the alanted guys talked about

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Speaker 1: them all summer. I mean, they have an incredible offensive line,

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Speaker 1: they have swift in the backfield. I'm on st. Brown,

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Speaker 1: on the Rye receiver. I mean they're tight ends even

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Speaker 1: a stud. So you know, to me, it kind of

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Speaker 1: makes sense where we all assume their defense will be better,

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Speaker 1: we all assume their secondary will be improved. Now they've

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Speaker 1: got guys back healthy, so Detroit, they're building blocks the

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Speaker 1: offensive line, the defensive line, like that's literally their identity.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, doesn't make me nervous are going up against

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Speaker 1: a team that's the better version of them, with a

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Speaker 1: better offensive line and better defensive line. A little bit.

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Speaker 1: Doesn't make me nervous that this Eagles team beat the

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Speaker 1: same exact Detroit team last year I think about four

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Speaker 1: to seven. Yeah, a little bit, but again we can't

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Speaker 1: take much from last year because those are different spots

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Speaker 1: where that Detroit team I don't think they had won

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Speaker 1: a game at that point, So again, they lost at

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Speaker 1: their own eight and they literally rallied from that point

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Speaker 1: on the rest of the season. So most teams would

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Speaker 1: have folded up right getting blown out like that. So

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Speaker 1: I look at from respective of this line's team has

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Speaker 1: been marked this one down right since the minute the

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Speaker 1: schedule came down. They've been looking at this game to me, right,

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Speaker 1: the Eagles team, not that they're gonna overlook this. We

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Speaker 1: talked about it that they've been getting hyped up all summer.

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Speaker 1: So I do think it's a little unfortunate the numbers

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Speaker 1: down to three and a half have found due. Like

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Speaker 1: me and Chad loved it at four and half, we

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Speaker 1: love it at four still take it at three and

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Speaker 1: a half. We talked about time four such a key number.

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Speaker 1: We've seen it, how many times we've seen that come

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Speaker 1: into play, So I still love it at three and

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Speaker 1: a half. But yet it's it's it's definitely a worring.

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Speaker 1: Some chat, right, we've seen how much love it feels

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Speaker 1: everyone's taking this lines team. But I just nothing's changed

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Speaker 1: for me. I still think this is a bad number,

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Speaker 1: So I would take the three and a half it

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Speaker 1: was three two and a half and maybe then we

381
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Speaker 1: could start talking Eagles and being a little bit undervalued,

382
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Speaker 1: But it's not because the egos have just been hyped up.

383
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Speaker 1: So I still think you're getting a good number if

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Speaker 1: you want to take the three and a half. But

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Speaker 1: if you can find the four, shop around, find the

386
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Speaker 1: four Lions. Were the executive decision there now is, Matt

387
00:19:50,480 --> 00:19:53,919
Speaker 1: Mitchell says an executive Darling, you want that to be

388
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Speaker 1: one of the five at Houston Lanta. Houston's lucked in Atlanta,

389
00:20:00,760 --> 00:20:03,240
Speaker 1: Houston are locked in right now. We got a couple

390
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Speaker 1: more that we were loving that I want us to

391
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Speaker 1: go through, including the game that I think we would

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Speaker 1: believe will be our big balls better the week and

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Speaker 1: then there are two that I think we have to

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Speaker 1: give strong consideration too. Okay, let's say the lines are

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Speaker 1: in Hello Detroit. So we've we've nailed three five, two

396
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Speaker 1: competing spots, and I think there are four games to

397
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Speaker 1: discuss For those two competing spots. One of them is

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Speaker 1: our foxhold bet Cowboys plus two and a half. If

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Speaker 1: there's any game that I'm wavering on, it's this one.

400
00:20:46,119 --> 00:20:51,440
Speaker 1: The spot is right. I think you're getting a Cowboys

401
00:20:51,480 --> 00:20:55,320
Speaker 1: team at home that can compete, that has the right weapons.

402
00:20:55,840 --> 00:20:58,119
Speaker 1: But I don't believe in their coach. I don't believe

403
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Speaker 1: in their ownership. I think they will always fail fans,

404
00:21:02,000 --> 00:21:05,399
Speaker 1: and we'll usually fail betters. But this Bucketeers team, with

405
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Speaker 1: a new coach, as great as Tom Brady is, their

406
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Speaker 1: offensive line is in shambles. And so the one thing

407
00:21:12,760 --> 00:21:15,040
Speaker 1: you've got to be able to do was project Tom

408
00:21:15,080 --> 00:21:18,520
Speaker 1: Brady up the middle on the offensive line. And I

409
00:21:18,560 --> 00:21:21,439
Speaker 1: don't believe they are well equipped to do that in

410
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Speaker 1: Week one. Yeah, and that's definitely one of the things

411
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Speaker 1: I probably, you know, put my pu took a stand

412
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Speaker 1: on where it's like, that's got to be the weakness here,

413
00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:32,959
Speaker 1: and I saw Chris Gudwin's back, So now they got Julio,

414
00:21:33,119 --> 00:21:36,360
Speaker 1: Chris Guywe, Mike Evans. I don't know. Tom probably could

415
00:21:36,400 --> 00:21:39,760
Speaker 1: figure out quick release and get those guys uh involved.

416
00:21:39,800 --> 00:21:42,320
Speaker 1: But yeah, I think I'm with each other where It's

417
00:21:42,359 --> 00:21:45,760
Speaker 1: like I felt really confident. I'm still betting on it.

418
00:21:45,760 --> 00:21:47,359
Speaker 1: It might be a better real life player than a

419
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Speaker 1: contest play. So to me, that's one of those you

420
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Speaker 1: kind of have to take it again. We talked about it.

421
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Speaker 1: This is gonna be a big tease game. Everyone's gonna

422
00:21:53,920 --> 00:21:56,240
Speaker 1: be teasing this game. It's such a teaser number. Why

423
00:21:56,240 --> 00:21:58,399
Speaker 1: would you not take the Cowboys at home on a

424
00:21:58,480 --> 00:22:03,399
Speaker 1: primetime game? Again, guys go hard, NonStop, Like this is

425
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Speaker 1: one of that just seems like I'll be close, Like

426
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Speaker 1: Tampa historically plays these games close early on with Tom

427
00:22:09,040 --> 00:22:11,159
Speaker 1: if you go back and look at his early season record.

428
00:22:11,720 --> 00:22:15,119
Speaker 1: But to me, I get what Chad's saying here, Like

429
00:22:15,240 --> 00:22:17,480
Speaker 1: I I honestly think if it was three, you mean,

430
00:22:17,520 --> 00:22:19,520
Speaker 1: you would feel way better, right, Like that would just

431
00:22:19,560 --> 00:22:22,119
Speaker 1: for some reason give me a little more relief. Where

432
00:22:22,600 --> 00:22:24,600
Speaker 1: the two and a half, there's certain teams where it's

433
00:22:24,640 --> 00:22:26,159
Speaker 1: like I don't really know about the two and a

434
00:22:26,160 --> 00:22:27,959
Speaker 1: half and I'm wait over a little bit putting them

435
00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:30,120
Speaker 1: the contest just because of that. It's like there's other

436
00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:32,560
Speaker 1: numbers that cross key numbers I like better than the

437
00:22:32,600 --> 00:22:37,520
Speaker 1: Dallas Cowboys. I love our fans who listen to the

438
00:22:37,520 --> 00:22:40,520
Speaker 1: podcast and then they will tweet at us all the time.

439
00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:44,280
Speaker 1: Someone tweeted at you and tweeted at me their favorite

440
00:22:44,320 --> 00:22:49,160
Speaker 1: quote from the podcast episode from earlier this week. It

441
00:22:49,320 --> 00:22:53,800
Speaker 1: was I'm working my ass off and Chad is always

442
00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:57,040
Speaker 1: trying his best, which was in the moment sounded like

443
00:22:57,080 --> 00:23:00,160
Speaker 1: a compliment, and then when you read it sounds lot

444
00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:05,919
Speaker 1: more like, you know, Chet tries hard. That good, but

445
00:23:05,960 --> 00:23:09,800
Speaker 1: he tries hard. I can't be held down. I can

446
00:23:09,840 --> 00:23:12,919
Speaker 1: do whatever I fucking want. I thought that too. It

447
00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:14,440
Speaker 1: was just funny when he when he put it there,

448
00:23:14,440 --> 00:23:16,560
Speaker 1: I was like, at a at a context, that does

449
00:23:16,640 --> 00:23:18,840
Speaker 1: look like just an absolute smack to the face, But

450
00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:22,240
Speaker 1: I swear that was in my heart of genuine like that,

451
00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:24,800
Speaker 1: the fact that we actually bust our asses. All right,

452
00:23:25,040 --> 00:23:27,040
Speaker 1: let's take the Cowboys out plus two and a half.

453
00:23:27,320 --> 00:23:30,359
Speaker 1: Let's talk about what I think should be big ball

454
00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:39,160
Speaker 1: better the week? Are you ready? Are you ready? Seattle

455
00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:41,400
Speaker 1: Seahawks plus six and a half on Monday Night Football.

456
00:23:41,800 --> 00:23:44,439
Speaker 1: Who I mean, the only bols I can think of

457
00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:46,479
Speaker 1: having bigger balls betting would be the Jets. Like, this

458
00:23:46,560 --> 00:23:49,040
Speaker 1: is it though, because this is a standalone island game,

459
00:23:49,520 --> 00:23:50,720
Speaker 1: me and Chat are gonna be on a literally an

460
00:23:50,720 --> 00:23:53,160
Speaker 1: island bett in this game. No one else is probably

461
00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:55,920
Speaker 1: gonna give this out. They'll be like, yeah, you probably

462
00:23:55,960 --> 00:23:57,720
Speaker 1: should take the Seahawks here, but you can't do it

463
00:23:57,720 --> 00:24:00,800
Speaker 1: because who's gonna take Gino at home on Monday Night, right, Chad.

464
00:24:00,840 --> 00:24:03,840
Speaker 1: Nobody is going to spend a segment on a podcast

465
00:24:04,160 --> 00:24:06,920
Speaker 1: trying to convince people why they should take it and

466
00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:10,600
Speaker 1: planting a flag in the ground on it. They will

467
00:24:10,640 --> 00:24:13,280
Speaker 1: say yeah, and then so that way they can say, yeah,

468
00:24:13,320 --> 00:24:16,280
Speaker 1: I had the Seahawks. But when it doesn't happen, there's

469
00:24:16,320 --> 00:24:18,040
Speaker 1: not like a lot of noise about it, so they

470
00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:21,080
Speaker 1: can just skip over it. We are fucking saying it.

471
00:24:22,160 --> 00:24:27,600
Speaker 1: Seahawks plus six and a half Monday Night Football. Book

472
00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:31,840
Speaker 1: it go into the action app. Find the line. If

473
00:24:31,880 --> 00:24:34,600
Speaker 1: you're in a legal state and you're betting with FanDuel,

474
00:24:35,119 --> 00:24:38,080
Speaker 1: click on the score cell right there, get Eagles get

475
00:24:38,080 --> 00:24:41,360
Speaker 1: Seahawks plus six and a half. Quick slip it right

476
00:24:41,359 --> 00:24:44,040
Speaker 1: over to Fandel. You'll be done in ten seconds. Put

477
00:24:44,080 --> 00:24:47,560
Speaker 1: your money in there. We're on it. We're on it,

478
00:24:48,440 --> 00:24:51,000
Speaker 1: gotta be now. I feel bad. We're looking down their

479
00:24:51,040 --> 00:24:53,720
Speaker 1: sheet right now about our favorite five and the three

480
00:24:53,720 --> 00:24:57,760
Speaker 1: marked in right now in Atlanta, the Texans, and the Seahawks.

481
00:24:58,040 --> 00:25:01,760
Speaker 1: I mean, holy crap, Well hold on now, let we

482
00:25:01,800 --> 00:25:07,359
Speaker 1: have we have Atlanta, Houston, and Detroit. It definitely the Seahawks.

483
00:25:07,359 --> 00:25:11,040
Speaker 1: We are definitely considering. But I would say we're definitely

484
00:25:11,080 --> 00:25:12,919
Speaker 1: betting it. Whether or not we put in our contest

485
00:25:13,040 --> 00:25:15,840
Speaker 1: is a different conversation. That's true. I love this number.

486
00:25:16,040 --> 00:25:19,960
Speaker 1: I mean, the joke of it is, it's it's so ugly,

487
00:25:20,080 --> 00:25:21,840
Speaker 1: like I even like when I bet it not that

488
00:25:21,880 --> 00:25:23,119
Speaker 1: the woman laughed at me when I went up to

489
00:25:23,119 --> 00:25:25,439
Speaker 1: the county. She did. She had like a double like

490
00:25:25,480 --> 00:25:27,480
Speaker 1: a double take. When I said it. She looked down,

491
00:25:27,520 --> 00:25:29,040
Speaker 1: then looked back up at me, and then and then

492
00:25:29,080 --> 00:25:30,720
Speaker 1: put it in like with a little smirk of like

493
00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:33,840
Speaker 1: another sucker. So that's always a good feeling. I usually

494
00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:36,280
Speaker 1: feel really good about those bets. And I bet it again,

495
00:25:36,320 --> 00:25:38,080
Speaker 1: which I did as soon as she gave me that look.

496
00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:41,760
Speaker 1: So let's let's let's hit it again. So that's this

497
00:25:41,840 --> 00:25:43,800
Speaker 1: is a game I'll being heavily invested in in the

498
00:25:43,840 --> 00:25:47,240
Speaker 1: sense that I am with you people. Seahawks are bad,

499
00:25:47,760 --> 00:25:50,040
Speaker 1: but they're not as bad as we all think they are.

500
00:25:50,119 --> 00:25:52,600
Speaker 1: And you're getting a home team with the twelve man

501
00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:56,679
Speaker 1: against Russell Wilson coming back after all these years, all

502
00:25:56,680 --> 00:25:59,680
Speaker 1: of industry of this team again running with a whole

503
00:25:59,720 --> 00:26:02,080
Speaker 1: news what like, it's it's different. I guess he's looked

504
00:26:02,080 --> 00:26:04,439
Speaker 1: great in practice, and I do think Russ still has

505
00:26:04,480 --> 00:26:07,000
Speaker 1: it in him, like he could actually be just what

506
00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:09,680
Speaker 1: dem is looking for. But man, did the NFL give

507
00:26:09,720 --> 00:26:12,320
Speaker 1: him a raw deal starting him in this spot going

508
00:26:12,359 --> 00:26:14,400
Speaker 1: on the road against the Seahawks in the prime time

509
00:26:14,440 --> 00:26:16,480
Speaker 1: game six and a half. That's such a great number

510
00:26:16,520 --> 00:26:18,919
Speaker 1: to get a home dog in this position. When you

511
00:26:18,960 --> 00:26:21,280
Speaker 1: step up to the counter, you bet the Seattle Seahawks.

512
00:26:22,160 --> 00:26:27,040
Speaker 1: They should be dropping balloons. As if you're the millionth

513
00:26:27,080 --> 00:26:30,800
Speaker 1: customer at a car dealership. The woman behind the counter

514
00:26:30,840 --> 00:26:34,080
Speaker 1: should be looking at you and saying respect. She should

515
00:26:34,119 --> 00:26:36,639
Speaker 1: be tipping her cap. She shouldn't be giving you some

516
00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:41,000
Speaker 1: side eye or laughing at you. The reason why I'm

517
00:26:41,000 --> 00:26:43,600
Speaker 1: not sure we put it in the contest is because

518
00:26:43,640 --> 00:26:47,080
Speaker 1: I do think there are a couple of games that

519
00:26:47,160 --> 00:26:50,200
Speaker 1: we got to consider number one. So right now we're

520
00:26:50,280 --> 00:26:56,320
Speaker 1: locked in Lions Atlanta, Houston. Seattle is there but could

521
00:26:56,320 --> 00:26:59,640
Speaker 1: be knocked out. We have one more, possibly two more.

522
00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:03,199
Speaker 1: The start of the NFL season is here in the

523
00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:07,920
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524
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529
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Speaker 1: my free bets on the Detroit Lions against the Philadelphia Eagles.

530
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Speaker 1: Virginia one eight hundred next step or text next step

542
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543
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545
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546
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547
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548
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549
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552
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553
00:28:51,800 --> 00:28:54,600
Speaker 1: As I think about this game more and more, how

554
00:28:54,600 --> 00:28:57,600
Speaker 1: do we not bet Mike Tomlin in a ra RA

555
00:28:57,840 --> 00:29:01,920
Speaker 1: spot as a underdog in the division In games that

556
00:29:02,160 --> 00:29:08,200
Speaker 1: inevitably went on a field goal. Football is our game.

557
00:29:08,560 --> 00:29:11,840
Speaker 1: Our business is winning. Yeah, and we we literally joked

558
00:29:11,840 --> 00:29:14,400
Speaker 1: about it. I don't even know. Seven months ago or

559
00:29:14,480 --> 00:29:16,440
Speaker 1: six months ago and the Super Bowl ended, we're gonna

560
00:29:16,480 --> 00:29:19,200
Speaker 1: be fading the Bengals a lot this upcoming season. We

561
00:29:19,240 --> 00:29:21,880
Speaker 1: have all seen the trends. The team that loses the

562
00:29:21,880 --> 00:29:24,520
Speaker 1: Super Bowl and Week one does not farewell. And the

563
00:29:24,560 --> 00:29:28,560
Speaker 1: simple fact is it's different. Last year was different, right,

564
00:29:28,640 --> 00:29:31,160
Speaker 1: They were on a roll. Are they really a super

565
00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:33,960
Speaker 1: Bowl team caliber team? We'll find out this year. That

566
00:29:34,040 --> 00:29:36,040
Speaker 1: was one of those things. They were just the hottest team,

567
00:29:36,120 --> 00:29:38,600
Speaker 1: just like remember those Giants teams upset the Patriots team.

568
00:29:39,240 --> 00:29:40,680
Speaker 1: You just go on these runs and then the next

569
00:29:40,800 --> 00:29:42,760
Speaker 1: year it's just different. It feels different. The locker room

570
00:29:42,760 --> 00:29:45,479
Speaker 1: has different guys in it. That's gonna hit them, that's

571
00:29:45,520 --> 00:29:49,480
Speaker 1: gonna hit since the Pittsburgh team, no expectations. I love

572
00:29:49,560 --> 00:29:51,560
Speaker 1: the fact that the number has not changed at all,

573
00:29:51,600 --> 00:29:53,480
Speaker 1: didn't even we don't even kne who the quarterback was.

574
00:29:53,680 --> 00:29:55,280
Speaker 1: The book kept at six and a half and they

575
00:29:55,440 --> 00:29:57,880
Speaker 1: left it there and they have just let everyone come

576
00:29:57,920 --> 00:30:00,480
Speaker 1: in at the bank us for the division that this

577
00:30:00,560 --> 00:30:03,840
Speaker 1: Bengals number Week one you know, teased it down plenty,

578
00:30:03,920 --> 00:30:06,160
Speaker 1: like I was gonna line the biggest tease games right now.

579
00:30:06,520 --> 00:30:08,200
Speaker 1: This is up there. This in Denver, the those two

580
00:30:08,240 --> 00:30:11,080
Speaker 1: teams that are way up there for most tease teams. Uh.

581
00:30:11,160 --> 00:30:13,120
Speaker 1: I think the Chiefs might be number one, which is

582
00:30:13,160 --> 00:30:16,400
Speaker 1: again scary because I like them this week. But yeah, Chad,

583
00:30:16,480 --> 00:30:18,920
Speaker 1: Chad nailed it there. It's like even lines, I do

584
00:30:19,000 --> 00:30:21,200
Speaker 1: love the lines. If the lines are three and a

585
00:30:21,240 --> 00:30:22,920
Speaker 1: half in the contest and we could get a six

586
00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:25,200
Speaker 1: and half for the Steelers, I probably would take the

587
00:30:25,240 --> 00:30:27,840
Speaker 1: Steelers over the lines in that position, just because again

588
00:30:27,920 --> 00:30:30,120
Speaker 1: I think that's a better number. And I like both

589
00:30:30,160 --> 00:30:32,560
Speaker 1: the matchups just the same, Like there's both reasons the

590
00:30:32,600 --> 00:30:35,040
Speaker 1: reasons not to go on either side, and these matchups

591
00:30:35,040 --> 00:30:37,480
Speaker 1: with Pittsburgh, I feel like you nailed it right, Chad,

592
00:30:37,720 --> 00:30:40,240
Speaker 1: Rob Rob Mike Tomlins spot. We live for these moments,

593
00:30:41,000 --> 00:30:43,560
Speaker 1: specially moments where he's just here's all the doubt and

594
00:30:43,600 --> 00:30:46,960
Speaker 1: he's telling his guys about all this doubt. So defensive

595
00:30:46,960 --> 00:30:49,600
Speaker 1: battle in my opinion this game, and I like Pittsburgh

596
00:30:49,680 --> 00:30:51,760
Speaker 1: keeping it close. Yeah, three points sounds right to me,

597
00:30:51,800 --> 00:30:54,320
Speaker 1: So six and a half as a gift straight up

598
00:30:55,120 --> 00:30:58,600
Speaker 1: win this game. B win this game, all right. I'm

599
00:30:58,600 --> 00:31:02,880
Speaker 1: putting Steelers plus six and a half in the locked column.

600
00:31:03,280 --> 00:31:07,000
Speaker 1: So now we have four for sure favorite though you

601
00:31:07,040 --> 00:31:08,640
Speaker 1: have to have at least a favorite. I got an

602
00:31:08,680 --> 00:31:14,160
Speaker 1: idea Lions, Atlanta, Houston Steelers. I'm gonna say something. I

603
00:31:14,200 --> 00:31:18,040
Speaker 1: believe strongly that we should put this into our PA

604
00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:23,760
Speaker 1: five Panthers shorth Houn favorites over the Browns. And I

605
00:31:23,800 --> 00:31:25,400
Speaker 1: would say on the sharp cause this is a game

606
00:31:25,440 --> 00:31:28,520
Speaker 1: that came up. Pros are all over this Browns team,

607
00:31:28,600 --> 00:31:30,240
Speaker 1: and I said to them, do you know the Browns history?

608
00:31:30,280 --> 00:31:31,800
Speaker 1: They're another team. I don't think they have won an

609
00:31:31,800 --> 00:31:34,720
Speaker 1: Opening Day and a lot of years. I don't know.

610
00:31:34,760 --> 00:31:36,360
Speaker 1: It might be like maybe they're the team hasn't won

611
00:31:36,400 --> 00:31:39,040
Speaker 1: in eight years. But hey, Simon, it's Matt. That number

612
00:31:39,080 --> 00:31:44,360
Speaker 1: is actually seventeen seventeen consecutive Week one losses for the

613
00:31:44,360 --> 00:31:48,680
Speaker 1: Cleveland Browns. They last one in two thousand four against

614
00:31:49,000 --> 00:31:53,400
Speaker 1: the Baltimore Ravens and quarterback Kyle Bowler. No other team

615
00:31:53,400 --> 00:31:58,920
Speaker 1: has done ten plus consecutive Week one losses. So yeah,

616
00:32:00,000 --> 00:32:02,040
Speaker 1: in from up above, man mich Will just dropped in.

617
00:32:02,200 --> 00:32:06,400
Speaker 1: The Browns are historically horrible opening week, so this line

618
00:32:06,440 --> 00:32:08,000
Speaker 1: just thinks the whole hell. That's what I said to

619
00:32:08,040 --> 00:32:09,880
Speaker 1: the other pros. I was like, why don't we all

620
00:32:09,960 --> 00:32:11,640
Speaker 1: just put all of our money on this opening day

621
00:32:11,640 --> 00:32:13,160
Speaker 1: and just walk away the rest of the season. It

622
00:32:13,160 --> 00:32:16,360
Speaker 1: seems like an auto bet. So maybe the books are

623
00:32:16,360 --> 00:32:19,200
Speaker 1: just getting us all fat for the season. But I'm

624
00:32:19,240 --> 00:32:21,640
Speaker 1: with you, chat I I want to take the Brown

625
00:32:21,760 --> 00:32:24,960
Speaker 1: so bad because it's like an ugly road dog that's

626
00:32:24,960 --> 00:32:28,440
Speaker 1: been undervalued because they have a horrible quarterback right now,

627
00:32:28,480 --> 00:32:30,880
Speaker 1: but the rest of their team is just stacked. But

628
00:32:30,960 --> 00:32:33,800
Speaker 1: everything just in my body wants me to take Carolina again. There,

629
00:32:34,480 --> 00:32:37,240
Speaker 1: they're the superior team in this position, being at home,

630
00:32:37,600 --> 00:32:41,280
Speaker 1: having the talent they have. Everyone's healthy. McCaffrey's healthy. DJ

631
00:32:41,440 --> 00:32:43,720
Speaker 1: Moore is healthy, everyone's there. I don't know if I

632
00:32:43,760 --> 00:32:45,120
Speaker 1: can let you do that. I think that's where we

633
00:32:45,200 --> 00:32:47,680
Speaker 1: bump heads on because I'm just scared, Like, as a pro,

634
00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:50,640
Speaker 1: I feel like the books are sucking us in, Like

635
00:32:50,680 --> 00:32:53,040
Speaker 1: what is this line? Because it went up, like you saw,

636
00:32:53,080 --> 00:32:54,760
Speaker 1: I went up to two and a half. I thought

637
00:32:54,760 --> 00:32:56,240
Speaker 1: it was gonna three three and a half, which made

638
00:32:56,280 --> 00:32:58,480
Speaker 1: more sense. It's down to one one and a half.

639
00:32:59,600 --> 00:33:03,040
Speaker 1: Strapped like a stone. It's bizarre. So like I'm I

640
00:33:03,080 --> 00:33:04,960
Speaker 1: think that's too fishy for me to mess with. But

641
00:33:05,640 --> 00:33:09,440
Speaker 1: I get why Chad loves his Carolina Panthers. All right,

642
00:33:09,520 --> 00:33:13,000
Speaker 1: well give me give me a game then that you

643
00:33:13,120 --> 00:33:15,080
Speaker 1: like the other, the other one that I've really come

644
00:33:15,080 --> 00:33:18,720
Speaker 1: around on, and I've let go of my personal animus

645
00:33:19,840 --> 00:33:25,160
Speaker 1: Bears plus seven against San Francisco, which I also don't hate. Again,

646
00:33:25,200 --> 00:33:26,720
Speaker 1: I think that's one of those I've just been staring

647
00:33:26,720 --> 00:33:29,200
Speaker 1: at the lines too much because I told you I

648
00:33:29,200 --> 00:33:31,480
Speaker 1: I'm fighting every urge in my body not to take

649
00:33:31,520 --> 00:33:33,560
Speaker 1: a position on the Jets at seven and a half.

650
00:33:33,760 --> 00:33:37,200
Speaker 1: Like I'm fighting every every little ounce. I'm not texting

651
00:33:37,240 --> 00:33:38,920
Speaker 1: my runner to be like, go hit this number for

652
00:33:39,000 --> 00:33:41,400
Speaker 1: me just because I should take a position like it's

653
00:33:41,560 --> 00:33:44,600
Speaker 1: over value to the max. Same with the Bears, like

654
00:33:44,680 --> 00:33:48,640
Speaker 1: the Bears of plus seven against Trey Lands. Again, he

655
00:33:48,720 --> 00:33:51,160
Speaker 1: started games last year, but come on, like, this is

656
00:33:51,200 --> 00:33:53,760
Speaker 1: his team now making his first start with the guy

657
00:33:53,800 --> 00:33:56,400
Speaker 1: he's replacing standing behind him on the sideline. It's a

658
00:33:56,440 --> 00:33:59,600
Speaker 1: lot for this foreign enters team. And you know we

659
00:33:59,680 --> 00:34:02,000
Speaker 1: just saw word Kiddles banged up, right, Kiddle is not

660
00:34:02,120 --> 00:34:04,880
Speaker 1: practicing this week. Something happened to him on Monday. The

661
00:34:05,000 --> 00:34:06,720
Speaker 1: number one blocking tight end might not be playing in

662
00:34:06,720 --> 00:34:08,160
Speaker 1: this game for them, which is a big deal for

663
00:34:08,160 --> 00:34:09,960
Speaker 1: this Bears team if they're gonna stop the run. So

664
00:34:11,040 --> 00:34:13,360
Speaker 1: I don't hate it, but I still I want to

665
00:34:13,400 --> 00:34:16,279
Speaker 1: find some chalk again. The CHALKOU was thinking is a

666
00:34:16,360 --> 00:34:18,000
Speaker 1: number pree people can't get. I just want to hear

667
00:34:18,040 --> 00:34:20,800
Speaker 1: your opinion chat for contest's sake, minus three and a

668
00:34:20,800 --> 00:34:22,840
Speaker 1: half Chiefs. Would you put that in now that numbers

669
00:34:22,880 --> 00:34:24,000
Speaker 1: up the six and a half five and a half?

670
00:34:24,000 --> 00:34:26,600
Speaker 1: Are you still like it just feels too chalky? And

671
00:34:26,640 --> 00:34:31,400
Speaker 1: this is kind of a trap. Well, if the delta,

672
00:34:32,160 --> 00:34:34,399
Speaker 1: if we're getting a lot of closing line value on this,

673
00:34:34,920 --> 00:34:36,319
Speaker 1: and it opened it three and a half, and that's

674
00:34:36,320 --> 00:34:38,080
Speaker 1: what it is in the contest, and now it's a

675
00:34:38,160 --> 00:34:41,759
Speaker 1: six and a half, I probably six or five and

676
00:34:41,800 --> 00:34:45,120
Speaker 1: a half, right, I'd probably take them because I'm with you,

677
00:34:45,560 --> 00:34:49,239
Speaker 1: I think there's too much. There's been too much backlash,

678
00:34:49,360 --> 00:34:52,280
Speaker 1: and now the backlash to the backlash on the homes

679
00:34:52,400 --> 00:34:55,680
Speaker 1: and how good this team can be is beginning. So

680
00:34:55,960 --> 00:34:57,520
Speaker 1: the time to get the Chiefs was when it was

681
00:34:57,560 --> 00:35:00,000
Speaker 1: at three and a half. So if that's still available somewhere.

682
00:35:00,000 --> 00:35:02,000
Speaker 1: I'd probably go with him. And again we're talking about

683
00:35:02,000 --> 00:35:03,840
Speaker 1: the time, like the week one is just so wonky.

684
00:35:04,080 --> 00:35:08,239
Speaker 1: Last year the Dolphins they beat the Patriots and they

685
00:35:08,239 --> 00:35:10,800
Speaker 1: look like they're gonna run with that division against the Bills.

686
00:35:11,080 --> 00:35:12,680
Speaker 1: They did even make the playoffs. The Patriots didn't make

687
00:35:12,760 --> 00:35:14,880
Speaker 1: to left. So again, I understand why people are so

688
00:35:15,000 --> 00:35:19,040
Speaker 1: hesitant with this Chief's love because they're just like you know. Again,

689
00:35:19,080 --> 00:35:21,000
Speaker 1: I had a couple of guys mentioned it. It has

690
00:35:21,040 --> 00:35:23,760
Speaker 1: to be different, right, no tire kill, It's a different offense.

691
00:35:24,360 --> 00:35:26,640
Speaker 1: I just hadn't seen that this preseason. From what I've seen,

692
00:35:27,160 --> 00:35:29,319
Speaker 1: they just looked like as business as usual and the

693
00:35:29,360 --> 00:35:31,239
Speaker 1: games they played and all their beat writers say the

694
00:35:31,280 --> 00:35:33,919
Speaker 1: same thing. So I might be way too high coming

695
00:35:33,920 --> 00:35:35,799
Speaker 1: in on the Chiefs, and I might be paying for that.

696
00:35:36,400 --> 00:35:38,080
Speaker 1: But if you're in your contest, can get three and

697
00:35:38,120 --> 00:35:40,319
Speaker 1: a half, that's a great number. Now, let's just knock

698
00:35:40,360 --> 00:35:43,040
Speaker 1: it out. Yet, would we put Tennessee in as a favorite?

699
00:35:43,200 --> 00:35:44,719
Speaker 1: Minus five and a half? Is that one you put

700
00:35:44,719 --> 00:35:47,120
Speaker 1: on the list? Is that too too risky for you?

701
00:35:47,120 --> 00:35:49,680
Speaker 1: Going against all of our brethren and the professional Brettors

702
00:35:49,719 --> 00:35:51,319
Speaker 1: who are all on the Giants. I mean you can

703
00:35:51,360 --> 00:35:53,680
Speaker 1: even open the action app. I'm the only one right

704
00:35:53,680 --> 00:35:55,480
Speaker 1: now in Tennessee. I think we have seven or eight

705
00:35:55,480 --> 00:35:58,160
Speaker 1: guys all on the Giants, which is I guess my

706
00:35:58,239 --> 00:36:02,400
Speaker 1: feeling on this is, I don't you strongly enough that

707
00:36:02,520 --> 00:36:05,840
Speaker 1: we have to have a favorite, right. Each game is

708
00:36:05,880 --> 00:36:10,440
Speaker 1: an independent event. It's not like it's not like we

709
00:36:10,480 --> 00:36:14,680
Speaker 1: can It's not like if we choose five underdogs, all

710
00:36:14,760 --> 00:36:18,279
Speaker 1: five of those can't cover. Right. So I wrote it

711
00:36:18,320 --> 00:36:21,360
Speaker 1: in my notes though from last year, and it staid,

712
00:36:21,400 --> 00:36:24,799
Speaker 1: whatever you do, don't put five dogs. Always put one

713
00:36:24,800 --> 00:36:26,480
Speaker 1: favorite in because I guess we got burned by that

714
00:36:26,520 --> 00:36:29,799
Speaker 1: a couple of times. Yeah, but then we're just we're

715
00:36:29,840 --> 00:36:32,439
Speaker 1: reaching for a favorite. I'm not though, like I love

716
00:36:32,480 --> 00:36:34,680
Speaker 1: these favorites. That just sucks with the lines move so like,

717
00:36:34,719 --> 00:36:36,600
Speaker 1: I'm not trying to funk with the fans. But like

718
00:36:37,400 --> 00:36:38,840
Speaker 1: me and Cha, I want to make a millionaire, and

719
00:36:38,840 --> 00:36:40,640
Speaker 1: we're trying to help other people in their contests. And

720
00:36:40,800 --> 00:36:42,799
Speaker 1: I've seen other people's contests. They have the same thing.

721
00:36:42,840 --> 00:36:44,640
Speaker 1: They have a Chiefs minus three and a half, which

722
00:36:44,960 --> 00:36:47,080
Speaker 1: again doesn't help you so much. Here you can tease them,

723
00:36:47,239 --> 00:36:48,800
Speaker 1: right because now they're up to five and five and

724
00:36:48,800 --> 00:36:51,160
Speaker 1: a half six. But I'm just trying to think of

725
00:36:51,160 --> 00:36:52,920
Speaker 1: a favorite we can get in there, because it's like,

726
00:36:53,440 --> 00:36:55,200
Speaker 1: I love Green Bay. I know there's no way I

727
00:36:55,200 --> 00:36:56,759
Speaker 1: can talk to you into it, like you like the

728
00:36:56,840 --> 00:36:59,080
Speaker 1: Vikings and Viking. All the trends point to the Vikings

729
00:36:59,080 --> 00:37:02,239
Speaker 1: on home divisional doll. I get that Vikings at home

730
00:37:02,280 --> 00:37:05,200
Speaker 1: as well, Like that's just a spot. You take the Vikings.

731
00:37:05,400 --> 00:37:06,799
Speaker 1: I don't want to fight you on it because it's

732
00:37:06,800 --> 00:37:09,120
Speaker 1: not historically for me to beg Green Bay not a

733
00:37:09,160 --> 00:37:11,799
Speaker 1: smart bet. That's a four percent bet. But I can't

734
00:37:11,840 --> 00:37:13,600
Speaker 1: fight my system. I just think it's a bad number.

735
00:37:13,680 --> 00:37:16,200
Speaker 1: The Viking hypes peaking right now. So I'm just trying

736
00:37:16,239 --> 00:37:18,040
Speaker 1: to find a favorite. Me and you can both be agreed.

737
00:37:18,080 --> 00:37:23,120
Speaker 1: And I would say I like the Chiefs. I like

738
00:37:23,280 --> 00:37:25,399
Speaker 1: I like the Chiefs, then I like the Titans at

739
00:37:26,000 --> 00:37:27,960
Speaker 1: those numbers. If the Chiefs at three and a half

740
00:37:28,000 --> 00:37:30,840
Speaker 1: aren't available in a contest, then I like the Titans

741
00:37:30,840 --> 00:37:34,040
Speaker 1: at five and a half. But I know it sounds crazy.

742
00:37:34,480 --> 00:37:37,279
Speaker 1: I'd prefer the Seahawks at plus six and a half.

743
00:37:38,560 --> 00:37:40,120
Speaker 1: I wouldn't fight you on that's what that's the problem

744
00:37:40,120 --> 00:37:42,160
Speaker 1: on our show that like, I love dogs, so it's

745
00:37:42,160 --> 00:37:45,359
Speaker 1: like I can't fight you on that. Let's then let's

746
00:37:45,400 --> 00:37:48,480
Speaker 1: go with what we love, all right. We're going with

747
00:37:48,520 --> 00:37:50,839
Speaker 1: Seattle plus six and a half. Let's put our money

748
00:37:50,880 --> 00:37:53,160
Speaker 1: where our mouth is. Let's have the pass is trying

749
00:37:53,160 --> 00:37:54,960
Speaker 1: to warn us. I'm trying to listen to Sigmon of

750
00:37:55,000 --> 00:37:57,080
Speaker 1: the past. He's been through it last year. We're so

751
00:37:57,120 --> 00:37:59,560
Speaker 1: happy and fresh right now. This was written. I had

752
00:37:59,600 --> 00:38:02,840
Speaker 1: to date Mark. It's from eleven ten. This is November.

753
00:38:02,880 --> 00:38:04,800
Speaker 1: This was a dark day for your boy. So you

754
00:38:04,840 --> 00:38:07,600
Speaker 1: know what I think. I think. I think the rule

755
00:38:07,719 --> 00:38:12,600
Speaker 1: is have at least one favorite, except week one when

756
00:38:12,640 --> 00:38:15,960
Speaker 1: all the lines are whack and every favorite is overinflated.

757
00:38:16,040 --> 00:38:18,279
Speaker 1: That's true, that's a that's a great point, all right.

758
00:38:18,360 --> 00:38:21,160
Speaker 1: So here's our final five. Lions plus four, Atlanta plus

759
00:38:21,200 --> 00:38:23,799
Speaker 1: five and a half, Houston plus seven, Steelers plus six

760
00:38:23,800 --> 00:38:25,920
Speaker 1: and a half, Seattle plus six and a half. I

761
00:38:26,000 --> 00:38:28,560
Speaker 1: can guarantee you there's not a single person who's thinking

762
00:38:28,600 --> 00:38:32,279
Speaker 1: about that as being their favorite. Five. I love it

763
00:38:32,360 --> 00:38:35,920
Speaker 1: is amazing here and you read it out loud, disgusting.

764
00:38:36,200 --> 00:38:39,080
Speaker 1: There might be four wins combined for the five teams

765
00:38:39,160 --> 00:38:43,479
Speaker 1: that we chose this year. Um, all right, the other

766
00:38:43,520 --> 00:38:45,720
Speaker 1: thing we have to do, We've done our fave five.

767
00:38:46,360 --> 00:38:50,279
Speaker 1: We've done the BBO of the Big Balls better the week.

768
00:38:50,320 --> 00:38:52,160
Speaker 1: I was gonna say b BOC because I love the

769
00:38:52,160 --> 00:38:56,719
Speaker 1: big bets on Campus podcast with Colin Wilson, Stucky, let's

770
00:38:56,880 --> 00:39:03,560
Speaker 1: um talk about survive her and then round Robin Survivor

771
00:39:03,600 --> 00:39:09,160
Speaker 1: to me Baltimore in Tennessee. Yeah, I've just been fighting

772
00:39:09,280 --> 00:39:12,040
Speaker 1: with this Ravens game. I'm so bad, which was Zack Wilson,

773
00:39:12,080 --> 00:39:13,799
Speaker 1: but we kind of knew. We knew it was gonna

774
00:39:13,800 --> 00:39:16,680
Speaker 1: be Flacco. You know, it's terrifying. This is such a

775
00:39:16,760 --> 00:39:19,279
Speaker 1: pros verse Joe's game. I just every pro I know

776
00:39:19,320 --> 00:39:21,280
Speaker 1: it was gonna come back in on this, this number

777
00:39:21,320 --> 00:39:23,160
Speaker 1: seven and a half. Like when the show gets posted

778
00:39:23,200 --> 00:39:24,720
Speaker 1: tonight or whatever it is, I can see it already

779
00:39:24,760 --> 00:39:26,320
Speaker 1: being back to six and a half of the Ravens.

780
00:39:26,360 --> 00:39:28,480
Speaker 1: I'm telling you, the professionals are gonna bet this number.

781
00:39:28,680 --> 00:39:31,439
Speaker 1: You're getting a veteran quarterback and Flacco and just one game.

782
00:39:31,560 --> 00:39:33,720
Speaker 1: They'll take this every time like this kind of position

783
00:39:33,760 --> 00:39:36,120
Speaker 1: for this guy, and I just can't see it like

784
00:39:36,160 --> 00:39:39,680
Speaker 1: this Ravens team is matched up perfectly to just dominate

785
00:39:39,719 --> 00:39:42,600
Speaker 1: this Jets team, and again Flacco can have an old

786
00:39:42,680 --> 00:39:45,840
Speaker 1: all world game. I have no system that can predict that.

787
00:39:46,000 --> 00:39:48,680
Speaker 1: All I can do is us is the numbers at hand.

788
00:39:48,760 --> 00:39:51,160
Speaker 1: So when I'm putting in the most likely teams to

789
00:39:51,239 --> 00:39:54,960
Speaker 1: win Week one, Ravens are number one, no doubt. Number

790
00:39:54,960 --> 00:39:57,360
Speaker 1: two is a forty Niners. I don't feel comfortable with

791
00:39:57,360 --> 00:39:59,239
Speaker 1: the forty Niners though, so I've just moved them off.

792
00:39:59,280 --> 00:40:01,439
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna do them like I've I've I've thought

793
00:40:01,480 --> 00:40:03,319
Speaker 1: about this for literally three months about who the hell

794
00:40:03,360 --> 00:40:05,680
Speaker 1: we're gonna take for this Week one. I can't do with.

795
00:40:06,360 --> 00:40:07,840
Speaker 1: I just do not want to do that against this

796
00:40:07,920 --> 00:40:10,120
Speaker 1: Bears team that could easily steal this game week one.

797
00:40:10,920 --> 00:40:13,120
Speaker 1: So it just comes down to me, like Chad, I

798
00:40:13,160 --> 00:40:16,399
Speaker 1: just said, Ravens Tennessee. So in our main one chat,

799
00:40:16,440 --> 00:40:18,200
Speaker 1: I'd rather do the Ravens to get him out of

800
00:40:18,200 --> 00:40:20,319
Speaker 1: the way. But I see why you want to get

801
00:40:20,320 --> 00:40:22,400
Speaker 1: to Tennessee out of the way right Tennessee is healthy

802
00:40:22,560 --> 00:40:24,560
Speaker 1: right now and they we have faith in them right now.

803
00:40:24,960 --> 00:40:26,960
Speaker 1: Things could change quick with the Tennessee team and we

804
00:40:26,960 --> 00:40:28,919
Speaker 1: can never even want to use them ever. Again, so

805
00:40:29,719 --> 00:40:32,759
Speaker 1: I get both sides for me, most comfortable play for

806
00:40:32,840 --> 00:40:36,400
Speaker 1: our big money million dollar maker survivor pool. Let's just

807
00:40:36,480 --> 00:40:38,719
Speaker 1: use the Ravens. Get him out Ravens it is. I'm

808
00:40:38,760 --> 00:40:52,279
Speaker 1: good with that. Before we get to Scooch Roulette, which

809
00:40:52,280 --> 00:40:54,800
Speaker 1: is our head to head, I will let you choose first.

810
00:40:55,520 --> 00:41:01,279
Speaker 1: Let's do our money line. Underdog ron robin are so

811
00:41:01,400 --> 00:41:04,759
Speaker 1: chat from my favorite round robin? Are gross underdog round

812
00:41:04,840 --> 00:41:08,120
Speaker 1: robin that people hate it on, but it cash nine

813
00:41:08,160 --> 00:41:11,480
Speaker 1: out of eighteen weeks. Or maybe we skipped week one,

814
00:41:11,719 --> 00:41:13,520
Speaker 1: but I know when nine and seven or nine and eight.

815
00:41:14,440 --> 00:41:18,480
Speaker 1: Let's start off right away. Steelers plus two twenty on

816
00:41:18,520 --> 00:41:21,680
Speaker 1: the road against since love a divisional dog on the

817
00:41:21,760 --> 00:41:24,239
Speaker 1: road against the team that lost the Super Bowl. We

818
00:41:24,360 --> 00:41:27,440
Speaker 1: take this every time. Somebody gotta be all in, for

819
00:41:27,480 --> 00:41:30,719
Speaker 1: everybody to be all in. Texans plus against the cold

820
00:41:30,760 --> 00:41:34,560
Speaker 1: Steam that historically is terrible. On opening week again, we

821
00:41:34,680 --> 00:41:37,320
Speaker 1: talked about they lost to a one in fifteen Jags,

822
00:41:37,400 --> 00:41:40,080
Speaker 1: the only one of this season for the Jaguars, hold

823
00:41:40,120 --> 00:41:43,280
Speaker 1: your nose, throw them in this round robin, crazy max value.

824
00:41:43,719 --> 00:41:47,719
Speaker 1: Next up the Atlanta Falcons. Chad knows. We talked about

825
00:41:47,760 --> 00:41:50,080
Speaker 1: we just love these divisional home dogs. And this is

826
00:41:50,160 --> 00:41:52,800
Speaker 1: a great spot for Atlanta team playing again against a

827
00:41:52,840 --> 00:41:55,399
Speaker 1: rookie head coach on the road with Jamis Winston who

828
00:41:55,480 --> 00:41:58,000
Speaker 1: loves to throw picks. Give it to me every time.

829
00:41:58,080 --> 00:42:00,360
Speaker 1: I love this number so much. This is gonna be

830
00:42:00,360 --> 00:42:01,680
Speaker 1: in a lot of my like you know, if I'm

831
00:42:01,719 --> 00:42:04,400
Speaker 1: doing multiple round Robbins, I'll probably the land it in

832
00:42:04,440 --> 00:42:06,560
Speaker 1: a decent amount of them, including the Texans as well.

833
00:42:07,120 --> 00:42:10,319
Speaker 1: Next up the lines, How can we forget about the Lions? Right?

834
00:42:10,680 --> 00:42:13,480
Speaker 1: Plus one sixty five? Right now plus one sixty Depending

835
00:42:13,520 --> 00:42:16,440
Speaker 1: on what number you can get, everyone's gonna be on.

836
00:42:16,440 --> 00:42:19,000
Speaker 1: It's a trendy dog. I don't care. I love the

837
00:42:19,040 --> 00:42:21,120
Speaker 1: lines that pull the upside off shock the world. Start

838
00:42:21,200 --> 00:42:22,919
Speaker 1: the season where they win if they're going I don't

839
00:42:22,920 --> 00:42:24,799
Speaker 1: even know, was oh in ten last year to start

840
00:42:24,840 --> 00:42:27,320
Speaker 1: the year? Do a lines? This is? This is it?

841
00:42:27,640 --> 00:42:29,520
Speaker 1: So for the last one chat, what do you think

842
00:42:29,520 --> 00:42:31,560
Speaker 1: we should fill in for our fifth spot, Let's do

843
00:42:31,640 --> 00:42:34,080
Speaker 1: the Jags against the Commanders plus one tint in the

844
00:42:34,120 --> 00:42:36,680
Speaker 1: action app Yeah, plus one twenty. You know it's a

845
00:42:36,719 --> 00:42:39,759
Speaker 1: little bit riskier than betting the Vikings, but we're both

846
00:42:39,840 --> 00:42:42,120
Speaker 1: big fan of the Jags. We like him as a

847
00:42:42,160 --> 00:42:43,839
Speaker 1: long shot to win the a f C South. We're

848
00:42:43,880 --> 00:42:46,279
Speaker 1: both invested heavily and Trevor Lawrence props for the year.

849
00:42:46,920 --> 00:42:49,760
Speaker 1: Let's add the Jacks. Our five for the round robin

850
00:42:49,840 --> 00:42:55,239
Speaker 1: will be the Steelers, the Falcons, the Texans, the Lions

851
00:42:55,719 --> 00:42:59,919
Speaker 1: and the Jags. That is for the money line under

852
00:43:00,080 --> 00:43:04,080
Speaker 1: dog round robin parlay. Just go out there and try

853
00:43:04,160 --> 00:43:06,120
Speaker 1: to have fun. You know, you know, having fun is

854
00:43:06,120 --> 00:43:09,480
Speaker 1: the name of the game. Reminder our PHASEE five right now,

855
00:43:09,760 --> 00:43:12,800
Speaker 1: the teams that we like most again follow the phaves

856
00:43:13,080 --> 00:43:17,000
Speaker 1: five in the Action Network gap. We will post these

857
00:43:17,040 --> 00:43:21,280
Speaker 1: on Sunday. We reserve the right for injuries, to update

858
00:43:21,440 --> 00:43:24,800
Speaker 1: line moves, etcetera. Um, But right now we like the

859
00:43:24,920 --> 00:43:28,000
Speaker 1: Lions plus four, Atlanta plus five and a half, Houston

860
00:43:28,000 --> 00:43:31,359
Speaker 1: plus seven, Seattle plus six and a half, Steelers plus

861
00:43:31,400 --> 00:43:34,600
Speaker 1: six and a half. It's the grossest PHASEE five you

862
00:43:34,640 --> 00:43:38,240
Speaker 1: can get from any betting podcast, but we are professionals.

863
00:43:38,920 --> 00:43:44,759
Speaker 1: All right, it's time for scooch Roulette. When all hope

864
00:43:44,840 --> 00:43:49,480
Speaker 1: is lost, all that's left is relief. Well, let's play

865
00:43:50,120 --> 00:43:55,960
Speaker 1: scooch Roulette. Simon. All right, I guess I am the

866
00:43:56,000 --> 00:43:59,719
Speaker 1: defending champion. Let's see now. I like to pick now.

867
00:44:00,000 --> 00:44:01,960
Speaker 1: I love by what I think Chad will love, which

868
00:44:02,040 --> 00:44:04,800
Speaker 1: is a fun game. I am so many that I

869
00:44:04,880 --> 00:44:07,000
Speaker 1: love no matter what you pick, like I've got one

870
00:44:09,160 --> 00:44:12,239
Speaker 1: because early days check back in week six, cheat won't

871
00:44:12,280 --> 00:44:15,880
Speaker 1: be so chippy. No, I'm never more confident than I

872
00:44:15,920 --> 00:44:18,440
Speaker 1: am before something starts. I mean, I gotta do it.

873
00:44:18,719 --> 00:44:21,279
Speaker 1: I'm all in on it. I put my flag on it.

874
00:44:21,320 --> 00:44:23,080
Speaker 1: I'm gonna look like a jackass if it doesn't hit

875
00:44:23,160 --> 00:44:25,160
Speaker 1: somebody as we'll lean into it. Plus seven and a

876
00:44:25,200 --> 00:44:28,360
Speaker 1: half Houston at Fandal give it to me on scuture

877
00:44:28,440 --> 00:44:32,480
Speaker 1: let Wow, I am gonna go on. I'm hating it

878
00:44:32,600 --> 00:44:36,399
Speaker 1: as I say it. Atlanta plus five and a half

879
00:44:36,680 --> 00:44:40,839
Speaker 1: didn't didn't We make a pact that we would never ever,

880
00:44:41,120 --> 00:44:45,799
Speaker 1: ever ever bet the Falcons again. That was last year.

881
00:44:46,040 --> 00:44:48,440
Speaker 1: They got as good last year, but we we wised up.

882
00:44:48,480 --> 00:44:50,520
Speaker 1: We made money down the road fadeing them. But no,

883
00:44:50,640 --> 00:44:55,040
Speaker 1: it's a new year, Mariotta our savior. Oh my god. Reminder,

884
00:44:55,239 --> 00:44:58,279
Speaker 1: go check out the Action Network app. Download it two

885
00:44:58,440 --> 00:45:01,080
Speaker 1: handles that you want to follow the It's five, which

886
00:45:01,120 --> 00:45:04,480
Speaker 1: we will update Sunday afternoon with our final five that

887
00:45:04,600 --> 00:45:07,520
Speaker 1: Simon and I put into our contest another handle, the

888
00:45:07,560 --> 00:45:10,480
Speaker 1: favorite podcast has everything else, big balls, better the Week,

889
00:45:10,680 --> 00:45:14,839
Speaker 1: our executive decision, our Simon says, our foxhole. So those

890
00:45:14,840 --> 00:45:16,400
Speaker 1: are what you need to follow if you want to

891
00:45:16,480 --> 00:45:19,520
Speaker 1: keep track of everything we're talking about here. I am

892
00:45:19,600 --> 00:45:23,800
Speaker 1: Chad Milman. He is Simon Hunter. Our producer is Matt Mitchell.

893
00:45:24,239 --> 00:45:27,640
Speaker 1: This has been the favorite podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.

894
00:45:28,280 --> 00:45:33,560
Speaker 1: Rate review, Subscribe, download us Apple Podcasts, Spotify, leave us

895
00:45:33,600 --> 00:45:36,600
Speaker 1: five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift

896
00:45:37,200 --> 00:45:44,120
Speaker 1: until next time. I Love you, And there he goes

897
00:45:44,760 --> 00:45:48,479
Speaker 1: post to cost Can he make it? Yes he can.