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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios.

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Speaker 2: Podcasts. Radio. News.

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Speaker 3: This is a breaking news update from Bloomberg. Instant reaction

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Speaker 3: and analysis from our 3,000 journalists and analysts around the world.

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Speaker 1: Apple just crossed the Bloomberg terminal, so let's get to it, folks.

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Speaker 1: Fourth quarter revenue, $ 114.

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Speaker 3: 48 billion.

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Speaker 1: That is a beat, folks.

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Speaker 2: $ 113.

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Speaker 1: 47 billion was the street estimate. Fourth quarter EPS, $ 2.

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Speaker 2: 10 a share.

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Speaker 1: That's a dime better than what the street was expecting.

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Speaker 1: Greater China revenue, a bit of a disappointment again. $ 17. 54

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Speaker 1: billion versus the street estimate of $ 18. 75 billion. We've seen

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Speaker 1: certainly some good and bad quarters when it comes to

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Speaker 1: China for Apple. Fourth quarter revenue, as we said.

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Speaker 4: A beat.

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Speaker 3: Okay, so let's go through it from a beat or

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Speaker 3: miss perspective. Fourth quarter iPhone revenue, a beat at $ 57. 58 billion.

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Speaker 3: Fourth quarter revenue, a beat at $ 114. 4 billion. billion. Fourth quarter,

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Speaker 3: greater China revenue coming in below estimates. Once again, $ 17. 54 billion.

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Speaker 3: The estimate was for $ 18.

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Speaker 4: 75 billion.

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Speaker 3: Wearables was a miss. iPad revenue was a miss. Total

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Speaker 3: operating expenses came in in line with estimates. at $ 19. 19 billion.

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Speaker 3: Fourth quarter services revenue coming in, we can say that

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Speaker 3: met estimates, $ 31. 57 billion. The estimate was for $ 31. 58. I'm

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Speaker 3: going to give that one to Apple. That's a meat

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Speaker 3: of expectations. Mac revenue came in above estimates. America's revenue

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Speaker 3: came in just above estimates. Fourth quarter products revenue coming

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Speaker 3: above estimates at $ 82. 9 billion. So fourth quarter greater China

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Speaker 3: revenue missing at $ 17. 54 billion. But fourth quarter iPhone revenue

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Speaker 3: A beat there, $ 57. 58 billion. And fourth quarter Apple revenue,

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Speaker 3: $ 114. 48 billion. A beat on the overall top line, Carol.

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Speaker 3: And also a beat on the bottom line. Like you said,

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Speaker 3: earnings per share, $ 2.

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Speaker 2: 10.

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Speaker 3: Estimate was for $ 2.

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Speaker 1: Mark Gurman on the live blog saying Apple just beat

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Speaker 1: estimates coming in at $ 114. 5 billion led by sales of

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Speaker 1: the iPhone 18 Pro. an iPhone 18 Pro Max. The

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Speaker 1: iPhone was a beat overall, but big misses in greater

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Speaker 1: China and on the iPad. Anurag Rana, you're looking through

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Speaker 1: these numbers as well. Come on in.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, the China thing is a very interesting one and

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Speaker 4: we'll find out why that's the case. The one number

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Speaker 4: that hasn't been discussed and I'm looking for it is

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Speaker 4: the gross margins because I was surprised that they beat

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Speaker 4: on the bottom line. I just want to understand how

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Speaker 4: that happened because we were expecting some kind of compression

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Speaker 4: in the gross margins because of higher memory costs. But

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Speaker 4: iPhone revenue, which is extremely important to us, that was

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Speaker 4: above estimate. So that's probably what's holding up the stock

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Speaker 4: right now. But I think the biggest thing for us

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Speaker 4: is what kind of guidance do they give going forward?

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Speaker 4: Because there are a couple of things that are happening. One,

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Speaker 4: remember that the base phone is not updated right now.

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Speaker 4: That's going to happen in the subsequent quarter. So there's

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Speaker 4: going to be shipments that got moved from the December

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Speaker 4: quarter into the March and the June quarter. So that's

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Speaker 4: going to be things that are going to be important.

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Speaker 4: And the second is, you know, what's happening with Duo,

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Speaker 4: all the screen issues and whether they can take care

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Speaker 4: of the strong demand of Duo in this particular quarter.

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Speaker 3: Do you think they can take care of the strong

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Speaker 3: demand in this quarter?

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Speaker 4: You know, it's tough to say because, you know, everybody

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Speaker 4: came up with their own estimates of starting the year at,

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Speaker 4: let's say, 10, 12 million units. But frankly speaking, the

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Speaker 4: reception that I have seen, even with the folks that

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Speaker 4: I have talked to, has been extremely strong. And that,

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Speaker 4: I think, is partially true to their expectations. lease plan.

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Speaker 4: And if that's the case, we think they're going to

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Speaker 4: be about 15 million units this year. And sometimes it's

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Speaker 4: not easy to come up with those units in that

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Speaker 4: short period of time.

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Speaker 3: Especially if you have people going to the Genius Bar saying, hey,

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Speaker 3: this is cracked. I need a new one. I'm just kidding.

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Speaker 3: I'm just kidding. But we will, like you said, we

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Speaker 3: should get some, there will likely be some questions about

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Speaker 3: the cracked issue. Hey, services revenue, as Carol mentioned, came

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Speaker 3: in almost exactly as expected. That's a bright spot on

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Speaker 3: a rock for you, I bet.

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Speaker 4: You know, but it was somewhere in the, you know,

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Speaker 4: around the 10% mark. So the question really is what

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Speaker 4: kind of guidance they give. Because now, initially what used

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Speaker 4: to happen was guidance was very predictable when it came

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Speaker 4: to the services business. But I think it has been

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Speaker 4: slowing down for the past two quarters. And if they

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Speaker 4: give a guidance right around 10%, I think that's fair.

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Speaker 4: But if they go out and say, well, we're going to,

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Speaker 4: you know, go down, the growth rate is going to

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Speaker 4: go down even more for the services business, that's not good.

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Speaker 4: So I think a lot hinges on guidance this time

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Speaker 4: than in the prior quarters.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, we know that December quarter, right, is just such

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Speaker 1: an important one in terms of what it means for

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Speaker 1: their top line. Let's just rehash. We're talking with Anurag

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Speaker 1: Rana of our Bloomberg Intelligence team. We are talking Apple

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Speaker 1: already out with its earnings stock down about nine-tenths of

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Speaker 1: a percentage point. Here's some of the highlights. Fourth quarter revenue,

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Speaker 1: that was a beat, $ 114.

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Speaker 2: 48 billion.

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Speaker 1: Street estimate was $ 113. 47 billion. iPhone revenue, you know this, folks.

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Speaker 1: So important to this company. $ 57. 58 billion. Street estimate was

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Speaker 1: a little bit below that at $ 56. 49 billion. Fourth quarter,

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Speaker 1: greater China revenue. A bit of a struggle there for

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Speaker 1: the company. Still $ 17. 54 billion. Street estimate was $ 18. 75 billion.

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Speaker 1: And again, the stock right now down about 1.1% here

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Speaker 1: in the aftermarket. It has had quite a run, though.

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Speaker 1: Since late June, we've talked about this, adding about a

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Speaker 1: trillion dollar in market cap. So as Anurag, you said,

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Speaker 1: what we get in terms of a guidance.

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Speaker 3: I think China is such a big question here. I mean,

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Speaker 3: when was the last time we were sitting here being

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Speaker 3: like Apple beat on China?

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Speaker 1: Well, what is the longer term story here, Anurag, with China?

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Speaker 3: I think it was like one time in the last

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Speaker 3: few quarters, truly.

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Speaker 1: They always talk about what an important market this is

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Speaker 1: for this company, but there's increasing competition.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, but if you think of China, I mean, the

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Speaker 4: last two quarters, they grew like 28%, 22%. I mean,

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Speaker 4: it's a very big number in China. We are now,

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Speaker 4: you could say, after one quarter, we're going to get

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Speaker 4: into a point of very tough comparison of growth in China.

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Speaker 4: You know, from my side, China is one of the

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Speaker 4: most important stories for Apple. In terms of unit shipments,

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Speaker 4: this is an area where they can sell more products

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Speaker 4: than any other geography right now.

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Speaker 2: U.S.

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Speaker 4: Is a saturated market in terms of unit growth. China,

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Speaker 4: they have a good market share. But it's still an

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Speaker 4: area where they can gain more market share down the road.

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Speaker 4: India is another area, but I think the per capita

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Speaker 4: income in India is a lot lower than it is

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Speaker 4: in China. So in India, it's only the middle class.

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Speaker 4: And when that goes up, that's really the big story there.

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Speaker 4: So China for me is one of the more important.

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Speaker 3: What's their entry into India? I mean, for so many years,

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Speaker 3: we talked about a cheaper iPhone being that entry into

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Speaker 3: different emerging markets. But is it that newish laptop that's

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Speaker 3: just a few hundred bucks?

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Speaker 4: No, it is the phone. I mean, to be very honest,

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Speaker 4: the product is always the phone. Let me be very,

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Speaker 4: very candid about it. It's a very expensive phone. Yeah,

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Speaker 4: but the thing is, like, the base model is there.

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Speaker 4: You have refurbished models. You know, India is becoming a

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Speaker 4: lot more affluent when it comes to the middle class.

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Speaker 4: And Apple is an aspirational brand over there. And that's

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Speaker 4: the discussion there. We have a lot. I mean, they

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Speaker 4: have opened so many stores in the last few years. So,

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Speaker 4: you know, India is becoming an extremely important part of

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Speaker 4: the pie. But again, the overall contribution to Apple is

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Speaker 4: still very small. And I think, you know, over the

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Speaker 4: next 10 years, yes. But in the near three years,

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Speaker 4: I think China remains the most important growth driver.

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Speaker 1: What's your top question to the C-suite when it comes

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Speaker 1: to Apple?

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Speaker 4: Gross margins. You know, tell me how are you going

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Speaker 4: to maintain gross margins over the next I would say

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Speaker 4: three to four quarters with memory prices up going so high.

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Speaker 4: And then what are you doing with your supply chain

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Speaker 4: to ensure that people have and get the phones that

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Speaker 4: they need in the right amount of time?

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Speaker 1: All right, so appreciate it. Anurag Rana, thank you so much,

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Speaker 1: of course, of our Bloomberg Intelligence team, and we'll be

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Speaker 1: looking for all of his research on it. Now we've

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Speaker 1: got to go to our own Mark Gurman, of course,

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Speaker 1: who knows the insides and outsides of, I feel like, Apple.

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Speaker 1: He is Bloomberg News Managing Editor for Global Consumer Tech,

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Speaker 1: joining us from the LA Bureau. Mark, we keep reading

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Speaker 1: everything you've got on the blog.

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Speaker 3: I don't know how he's doing it. He's live blogging.

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Speaker 3: He's on TV. He's on radio.

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Speaker 1: It's his digital twin.

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Speaker 3: He's doing it all.

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Speaker 1: Maybe it's his digital twin.

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Speaker 3: No, that's really Mark Gurman, I think.

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Speaker 1: Where should we go? Where should we start when it

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Speaker 1: comes to the Apple story right now?

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Speaker 2: Well, let me give the backdrop. No regular iPhone 18.

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Speaker 2: The iPhone 18 Pro is the most minor year-over-year upgrade

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Speaker 2: we've seen in a long time. Nobody can find an

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Speaker 2: iPhone Duo. No iPhone Air 2. All the major fall products,

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Speaker 2: the MacBook Pro with Touch, the Home View, the HomePod Mini,

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Speaker 2: the Apple TV, the OLED iPad, none of them launched

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Speaker 2: until the holiday quarter. Yet they still beat And they

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Speaker 2: beat because of the iPhone 18 Pro. Likely also from

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Speaker 2: continued demand for the iPhone 17 Pro Max and all

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Speaker 2: the carrier deals you saw earlier in the quarter. So

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Speaker 2: this is a phenomenal report for Apple. The big news,

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Speaker 2: which I think will be less phenomenal, is the guidance

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Speaker 2: for the December quarter. Given the backdrop of everything I explained,

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Speaker 2: it all comes down to how the iPhone Duo is

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Speaker 2: going to perform. And so far, the iPhone Duo supply

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Speaker 2: is very difficult to understand. New pre-orders didn't come, aren't

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Speaker 2: launching until the end of January for many buyers. You

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Speaker 2: can't get them at retail stores right now unless you're

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Speaker 2: an AI bot. So I'll be interested to see the

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Speaker 2: commentary there and what the numbers actually turn out to be.

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Speaker 2: The other piece here is Greater China and services, both

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Speaker 2: either a big fall or a strong deceleration.

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Speaker 3: Okay, so yeah, a big miss when it comes to China.

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Speaker 3: We'll get to that in just a minute. First, though,

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Speaker 3: I want you to help us with the math. When

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Speaker 3: we do get that guidance about halfway through the call,

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Speaker 3: as you remind everybody on the live blog, Mark, that

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Speaker 3: we're going to get, how do we know the share

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Speaker 3: of Duo in there based on the number that we get?

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Speaker 2: Oh, we have no idea. And they're not going to

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Speaker 2: tell us. So it's going to be difficult to discern.

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Speaker 3: But a bigger number will... It's a $ 2, 000 phone. So

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Speaker 3: a bigger number.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, a bigger number will mean that there's quite a

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Speaker 2: big uptake for the iPhone Duo. But they don't register revenue,

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Speaker 2: or at least they traditionally have not registered revenue until

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Speaker 2: the consumer actually receives the device. An order being placed

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Speaker 2: doesn't mean we're going to add that to the numbers.

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Speaker 2: It has to be the person has received the phone,

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Speaker 2: has kept the phone, etc. The good news for Apple

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Speaker 2: could be that we're going to see a very strong

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Speaker 2: tailwind because of the supply chain shortages and give them

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Speaker 2: positive numbers into Q2, Q3, Q4 of next year, given

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Speaker 2: how hard this phone is going to be to get

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Speaker 2: for quite a while now.

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Speaker 1: Will that ultimately hurt them? You know, it's great to

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Speaker 1: have pent up demand, right? It makes for a great story,

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Speaker 1: great headlines.

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Speaker 2: I don't think it'll hurt them. I think what Apple

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Speaker 2: is trying to do anyways, especially under Ternus, is create

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Speaker 2: more consistent revenue across the year. For a long time,

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Speaker 2: Apple has pushed everything into the very back part of

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Speaker 2: the year and now spreading things across, whether that was

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Speaker 2: the intention or not for the duo, is them hitting

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Speaker 2: a goal they've had for quite some time.

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Speaker 3: Um, Mark, I, I'm, I'm wondering about the, I mean,

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Speaker 3: like a week ago, one of the most read stories

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Speaker 3: in the terminal sitting here was the story you were

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Speaker 3: writing about, um, the crack screens on the duo. Has

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Speaker 3: that issue gone away? Do we expect it to be

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Speaker 3: addressed at all? I imagine an analyst will, or two

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Speaker 3: will ask about this.

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Speaker 2: We've seen a dramatic slowdown in people reporting the cracks.

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Speaker 2: The cracks were reported from the first units that were

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Speaker 2: sold and There does not appear to be any consistency

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Speaker 2: on which units are impacted, whether that's a color, whether

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Speaker 2: that's if you bought it online or in the retail store,

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Speaker 2: whether it was manufactured in China or India or what

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Speaker 2: have you. I'm sure they'll get a question about it,

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Speaker 2: but it is completely died down, which tells me this

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Speaker 2: was an early batch defect. It was a real issue.

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Speaker 2: There were some influencers online trying to gaslight people into

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Speaker 2: believing this was not an issue. But the fact of

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Speaker 2: the matter is, for a small percentage of iPhone Duo buyers,

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Speaker 2: you open the phone the right way and it cracked.

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Speaker 2: And that's a real problem. But it clearly was an

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Speaker 2: isolated problem.

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Speaker 1: Mark, one of the things I jumped out ahead of

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Speaker 1: the earnings, as Tim and I were reading through the blog,

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Speaker 1: your comments about how this is going to be the

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Speaker 1: first for Apple with new CEO John Ternes in charge and,

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Speaker 1: you know, what we might hear from him on the call.

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Speaker 1: He's a product guy. So I'm just curious what you're

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Speaker 1: going to be listening out for.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, he gets all this credit for being a product person,

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Speaker 2: but at the end of the day, Apple is a

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Speaker 2: product company and nothing has changed here. All the initiatives

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Speaker 2: that you see introduced over the past several weeks, these

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Speaker 2: were all in the works for half a decade under

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Speaker 2: Tim Cook. Obviously, Ternus was extremely deep in the thick

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Speaker 2: of things, but the reality is that nothing is changing

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Speaker 2: a ton at Apple anymore. Because of this, at least

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Speaker 2: for now, I have reported, though, he wants the company

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Speaker 2: to run faster, wants to run leaner. There have been

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Speaker 2: a lot of under the radar layoffs and less under

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Speaker 2: the radar layoffs at Apple. There's been cost cutting and

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Speaker 2: I expect more cost cutting to happen. And so the

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Speaker 2: guidance definitely is going to be the most interesting part here.

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Speaker 2: Why are they looking at all these layoffs? Why are

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Speaker 2: they looking at the cost cutting? What does that mean

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Speaker 2: for revenue and what they're expecting there?

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Speaker 3: Hey, Mark, let's go to the AI story here. Apple's

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Speaker 3: up roughly 25%. What AI story? Okay, so, well, that's

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Speaker 3: the point. So Apple's up roughly 25%. It's best performing

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Speaker 3: Mag 7 going into today's print, beating by far Microsoft

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Speaker 3: down up 10%. So not only is it beating the

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Speaker 3: greater index, but it's like the only one that's beating

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Speaker 3: the greater index, right? So... Apple has been punished in

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Speaker 3: the past and criticized for not having an AI strategy.

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Speaker 3: But what that means is it does have a free

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Speaker 3: cash flow position that is enviable if you are spending

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Speaker 3: a lot of your cash right now, like some of

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Speaker 3: these hyperscalers are. Am I looking at this incorrectly?

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Speaker 2: No, I think you're looking at the most optimistic view here.

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Speaker 2: But at the same time, we've seen zero evidence from

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Speaker 2: Apple that they're going to be able to successfully take

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Speaker 2: advantage of that cash holding and trade that in for

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Speaker 2: a strong AI strategy. I've been using OpenAI ChatGPT. over

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Speaker 2: the weekend. I have completely immersed myself in it. Apple

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Speaker 2: has nothing close. It's a game changer. It's literally like

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Speaker 2: an all-day assistant that's like a human that you can have.

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Speaker 3: This is the agent. This is their answer to Muse?

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Speaker 2: This is their agent, yes. Answer to Claude, answer to Muse.

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Speaker 2: It's been pretty terrific. And Siri AI is operating nowhere close.

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Speaker 1: What about Siri, the Siri AI chatbot? Have you played

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Speaker 1: with it? Do you like it?

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Speaker 2: Is it, yeah. Siri AI is fantastic for 90% of

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Speaker 2: use cases. You ask it questions, it uses that Gemini

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Speaker 2: model to get you the answers. You need to get

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Speaker 2: something done on your phone, it can get something done

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Speaker 2: on your phone. But in terms of replicating a real

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Speaker 2: world assistant, it's not that. It's basically what the original

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Speaker 2: vision of Siri was 15 years ago, but finally executed correctly.

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Speaker 2: That's an amazing thing. It means that the core AI

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Speaker 2: product that Apple has finally works and That means they

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Speaker 2: have an excellent foundation. Now they have to actually build

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Speaker 2: something on top of it. Services.

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Speaker 1: This has always been an important revenue generator, and it

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Speaker 1: looks like it's slowing. How problematic is that, or what's

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Speaker 1: the question to ask of John Ternes and the C-suite

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Speaker 1: about that?

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Speaker 2: Well, the question is why, and one of the answers

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Speaker 2: is because Google searches are down because of AI, and

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Speaker 2: a big chunk of the revenue Apple gets from services

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Speaker 2: is a revenue share from Google search done in Safari.

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Speaker 2: And as people move to the Gemini app, as people

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Speaker 2: move towards the ChatGPT app or the Cloud app or

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Speaker 2: the Muse app, or even Siri AI to get things

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Speaker 2: done that they normally would do in a search engine,

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Speaker 2: that services revenue is going to come down. What Apple

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Speaker 2: needs to do is figure out a way to make

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Speaker 2: up for that revenue loss by monetizing search on its platforms,

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Speaker 2: or shall I say AI search on its platforms, because

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Speaker 2: they're not doing that.

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Speaker 3: We're speaking with Mark Gurman. He's Bloomberg News Managing Editor

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Speaker 3: for Global Consumer Tech. We're in the midst of Apple's numbers.

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Speaker 3: That call does start in just about 14 minutes. Mark's

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Speaker 3: going to go to that in a few minutes. We

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Speaker 3: do have a few more minutes with Mark, but to

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Speaker 3: catch everybody up, if you are just joining us, the

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Speaker 3: company reported revenue gains of 12% to $ 114. 5 billion. That

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Speaker 3: was a beat on the top line. China sales, though,

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Speaker 3: fell short of analysts' estimates. iPhone revenue climbed 17% to

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Speaker 3: $ 57. 6 billion. The shares in the after hours, they're flat

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Speaker 3: right now. They fell, they moved higher, and now they're flat.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, stock is really flat. So, Mark, you know, we've

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Speaker 1: always had high expectations for, like, what's next from Apple.

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Speaker 1: Where do they go next from here?

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Speaker 2: Well, next year is going to be an extremely strong

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Speaker 2: year in terms of AI wearables. So where they're excelling

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Speaker 2: is AI hardware. Smart glasses are going to be there.

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Speaker 2: The AirPods with cameras, those have been off delayed. We're

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Speaker 2: going to see those. The touchscreen MacBook Pro goes on

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Speaker 2: sale Friday. I'm excited for that as lack of revolutionary

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Speaker 2: as it is. The home view goes on sale in

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Speaker 2: a couple of weeks. I'm excited for that. So there's

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Speaker 2: a chock full product pipeline here. The big question is 2028, 2029,

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Speaker 2: 2030 and beyond. Things like robotics, things like augmented reality glasses.

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Speaker 2: Are they going to take another swing? at autonomy? Those

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Speaker 2: are the big questions for the company's future and certainly

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Speaker 2: things that you will not hear from John Ternus today.

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Speaker 2: All right.

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Speaker 1: So we're all in on the elections, as you can imagine.

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Speaker 1: How does that, you know, Tim Cook has been a master, right,

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Speaker 1: in terms of really overseeing things with Washington and.

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Speaker 3: Just kind of- With Beijing, too.

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Speaker 1: Navigating all of it pretty well, to say the least.

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Speaker 1: But how does the midterm outcome, you know, kind of

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Speaker 1: impact this company.

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Speaker 2: If at all? Yeah, it's a fascinating question. I've been

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Speaker 2: asked this the last several weeks. I think there's going

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Speaker 2: to be no impact. You know, the big political thing

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Speaker 2: when it came to Apple, you know, with the Republicans

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Speaker 2: in charge has been tariffs. No matter who wins, I

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Speaker 2: don't see that changing. I don't think there's going to

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Speaker 2: be anything dramatic or even less than dramatic when it

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Speaker 2: comes to whether it's the Democrats or the Republicans in

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Speaker 2: the lead after these midterms.

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Speaker 1: What's your favorite Apple product right now? Me?

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Speaker 2: Oh, I'm using the iPhone Duo.

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Speaker 3: I think it's incredible.

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Speaker 1: And are you loving it?

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Speaker 2: And I feel bad for people who want yes, and

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Speaker 2: I feel bad for people who want it and aren't

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Speaker 2: able to get their hands on it because it's a

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Speaker 2: game-changing experience. And I think you really should give it

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Speaker 2: a shot. I mean, I've seen some people buy it

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Speaker 2: and return it. But give it the two weeks, and

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Speaker 2: I think you'll get used to it. The inner screen

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Speaker 2: is simply incredible. It's changed my workflow completely. You can

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Speaker 2: use a lot of what you would use a laptop

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Speaker 2: or an iPad for on this thing. So I encourage

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Speaker 2: anyone who has the means or the desire to give

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Speaker 2: it a shot.

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Speaker 3: Or the patience.

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Speaker 2: Or the patience to wait in line for it. People

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Speaker 2: are trying to buy them through the Apple Store app,

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Speaker 2: and the AI bots are taking these things very quickly,

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Speaker 2: 30 seconds, 60 seconds, 15 seconds, and it's hard for

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Speaker 2: consumers to get their hands on it.

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Speaker 3: We have to wrap with you in 10 seconds, Mark,

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Speaker 3: but when do you think it won't be an issue

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Speaker 3: where somebody can just go and get one if they

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Speaker 3: want one?

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Speaker 2: February, March. Okay.

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Speaker 3: Mark your calendar, Carol.

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Speaker 1: Well, so just have a little patience.

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Speaker 3: Got to update this iPhone 13 Pro that I have.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you do kind of. I would. Mark Gurman, thank you.

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Speaker 1: We know it's busy time for you. We really appreciate it.

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Speaker 1: Mark Gurman, he's Bloomberg News Managing Editor for Global Consumer Tech,

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Speaker 1: joining us out there from the LA Bureau.