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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays

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Speaker 2: at seven am Eastern on Apple car Player, Android Auto

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Speaker 2: with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you

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Speaker 2: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: Nineteen twenty four of the year President Jimmy Carter was born,

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Speaker 3: same year my father was born.

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Speaker 4: Amazing.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, just an extraordinary one hundred years. It's just amazing.

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Speaker 3: You think about the life that you know, President Carter had,

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Speaker 3: it's just extraordinary. You want to kind of there's so

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Speaker 3: many different facets to his life pre presidency, presidency, and

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Speaker 3: then of course post presidency was just as amazing. My

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Speaker 3: sister did habitat with humanity for President Carter and his

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Speaker 3: wife for decades. I mean they went all over the place,

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Speaker 3: Haiti just I mean everywhere, and it's just an extraordinary life.

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Speaker 3: Terry haynesterin he's a fander of Pangaea policy. Terry, it

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Speaker 3: kind of feels like we think about our current economic

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Speaker 3: in our current political environment kind of feels like Jimmy

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Speaker 3: Carter was from another time in place. How do you

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Speaker 3: think about his legacy these days?

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Speaker 5: You know, Paul, I think a lot about President Carter's

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Speaker 5: presidency and his legacy both. There are some there are

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Speaker 5: some residences with today's political situation. A lot of people

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Speaker 5: point that out, but you know, I fundamentally I would

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Speaker 5: say that markets need to give President Carter a huge

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Speaker 5: debt of gratitude today for not only appointing Paul Vulker

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Speaker 5: and breaking the back of inflation, but also so setting

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Speaker 5: the run up of US economic strength that persists even today.

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Speaker 5: So there's a big linkage between Carter's presidency and today,

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Speaker 5: and Carter defending bed independence by shielding Vulker's ability to

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Speaker 5: continue to apply those policies, which is something that President

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Speaker 5: Reagan also did. You know. Beyond that, I think about

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Speaker 5: Carter having a very fractious relationship both with his own

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Speaker 5: party and with the other side. Than that and a

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Speaker 5: lot of geopolitical bad fortune really helped to make him

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Speaker 5: a one term president.

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Speaker 6: Of course, to your point Herery, he was a one

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Speaker 6: term president, but it was his post White House work

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Speaker 6: that Paul was just mentioning about that seemed to really

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Speaker 6: define him.

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Speaker 4: Talk to us more about that.

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Speaker 5: Well, you know, the President Carter wanted to live a

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Speaker 5: useful life, not as a president, I mean, including as

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Speaker 5: a president, but wanted to live a useful life as

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Speaker 5: a person. And the degree to which he focused on

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Speaker 5: that and kept to it, his sheer stick toitiveness on

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Speaker 5: all that really defined him. And you know, and you

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Speaker 5: mentioned some of his many, many good works, and you know,

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Speaker 5: and I don't need to remind the audience of many

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Speaker 5: more that are being written about today. You know, But

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Speaker 5: between Carter and Nixon, and I'm not engaging in what

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Speaker 5: about ism here, those two individuals, really, particularly Carter, I think,

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Speaker 5: really defined what the post presidential role of American presidents are.

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Speaker 5: And his continued involvement in public service in lots and

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Speaker 5: lots of different ways is a very positive part of

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Speaker 5: his legacy and one of the main things for which

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Speaker 5: he'll be remembered.

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Speaker 3: Terry, I know, the President Carter kind of continued some

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Speaker 3: of the efforts that was begun during the Nixon administration

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Speaker 3: in terms of normalizing relations with China. How do we

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Speaker 3: think about that process that time and place versus kind

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Speaker 3: of where we are today.

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Speaker 5: Well, in that time and place, it was very much

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Speaker 5: in the United States interest following along President Nixon's opening

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Speaker 5: to China, to continue that policy and you know, Carter's

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Speaker 5: respect possible for one of the ironically for one of

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Speaker 5: the main flashpoints today, which is the ambiguity strategic ambiguity

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Speaker 5: the United States calls it over the status of Taiwan

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Speaker 5: and Taiwan policy generally. You know, I don't fault Carter

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Speaker 5: a bit for that. That that happened in nineteen seventy

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Speaker 5: eight or so. It was a very long time ago.

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Speaker 5: But you know, the it shows the United States interest

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Speaker 5: in wanting to bring China into the Community of Nations,

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Speaker 5: in the United States, interest in wanting to encourage China

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Speaker 5: along the path of economic expansion. And and you know,

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Speaker 5: both of those things resonate today, both good and bad.

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Speaker 6: Also expand a bit more on when it came to

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Speaker 6: Carter reorienting US foreign policy towards that emphasis on human rights.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, that was very controversial at the time and remain controversial.

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Speaker 5: You know, the Carter was very critical of the the

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Speaker 5: rail politique as it was called in the Nixon and

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Speaker 5: Ford administrations and wanted to introduce a more robust emphasis

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Speaker 5: and focus on human rights.

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Speaker 3: Uh.

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Speaker 5: That was that that became a hallmark of his presidency

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Speaker 5: and again had good and bad, good and bad resonances.

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Speaker 5: I mean, he certainly helped human rights and helped and

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Speaker 5: helped focus the United States on the human rights dimension

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Speaker 5: of foreign policy. And at the same time, a lot

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Speaker 5: of what ended up happening was, you know, things spilling

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Speaker 5: over in a variety of ways that that caused his

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Speaker 5: presidency in the United States great difficulty from Iran to

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Speaker 5: Russia's incursion in Afghanistan and beyond. Uh So, you know,

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Speaker 5: his legacy there is very good, but the foreign policy,

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Speaker 5: the foreign policy results were and remain mixed.

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Speaker 3: Terry, the National Energy Act, kind of us thinking about

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Speaker 3: conserving energy, renewable energy, recycling, talk to us about his legacy.

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Speaker 5: There two things. One is that Carter himself, there are

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Speaker 5: a lot of dimensions. This one is that Carter himself

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Speaker 5: was very convinced very early on that you know, thank

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Speaker 5: remember that his presidency comes in the aftermath of the

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Speaker 5: first gasoline oil shock, that very convinced that the United

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Speaker 5: States had to lead on energy policy and adopt not

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Speaker 5: only adopt an energy policy domestically, but one that was

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Speaker 5: very different from from the lazy ever policies before he

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Speaker 5: set about doing that. That cost him a lot of

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Speaker 5: political support in his own party. As well as uh,

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Speaker 5: you know, it's just kind of Texas oil state Democrats

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Speaker 5: and the like. I mean, you know, it was by

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Speaker 5: no means a unified party on this. So that alone

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Speaker 5: cost him a lot of support, number one, politically, but

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Speaker 5: he is responsible for a lot of the architecture for

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Speaker 5: of what we do deal with today. Secondly, Carter on

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Speaker 5: energy shows the limits of the presidency as much as

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Speaker 5: anything else. Carter thought he could lead by example and

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Speaker 5: frankly dragging both public along and his own party and

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Speaker 5: Congress along. And he found out that Congress is a

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Speaker 5: co equal branch of government and was very willing and

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Speaker 5: able to push back at him on this, And there

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Speaker 5: was a lot of dissension in the public as well

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Speaker 5: on what President Carter thought the remedies were, including turning

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Speaker 5: the thermostats way down and alternative energy. So you know,

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Speaker 5: he showed the limits of the presidency by that, and

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Speaker 5: that's part of the cautionary tale the Carter Review.

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Speaker 3: All right, Terry, thank you so much for joining us.

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Speaker 3: Really appreciate getting some of your perspective there. Terry Haynes,

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Speaker 3: founder of Pangaea Policy.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast catch us live

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Speaker 2: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am. Easter Listen on

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Speaker 2: or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: Twenty percent plus games in twenty twenty three for equity mesters,

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Speaker 3: twenty five percent gains so far year to date in

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty four. What do you do in twenty twenty five?

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Speaker 3: I'm just gonna go in my two year treasury at

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Speaker 3: four point two eight percent and just park it all

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Speaker 3: right there. I mean, I mean, why take any more risk?

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Speaker 3: But let's see what the bros Are saying. Cam Dawson,

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Speaker 3: she's the CIO of New Edge twelfth. She joins us

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Speaker 3: here in our studios, Cam, what are you talking to

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Speaker 3: your clients about? I know you've been marketing a lot,

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Speaker 3: talking to your clients over the last several weeks, several

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Speaker 3: months and going into twenty twenty five. What are you

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Speaker 3: telling them about how they should be thinking about twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty five.

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Speaker 7: We're saying that you should not be surprised if Ford

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Speaker 7: returns are lower than the last two years that we've experienced,

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Speaker 7: and if we were to have another year like twenty

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Speaker 7: three and twenty four. We think that would propel us

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Speaker 7: into bubble territory. Because of where we're starting with valuations,

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Speaker 7: we actually think a sideways, somewhat choppy year is the

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Speaker 7: best thing to happen for this market simply because it

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Speaker 7: would allow us to grow into these higher evaluations. And

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Speaker 7: in sideways choppy years, usually two things happen. The first

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Speaker 7: one is that you have leadership rotations. The second one

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Speaker 7: is that you do get great buying opportunities. So even

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Speaker 7: if it isn't as exciting of a year from an

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Speaker 7: overall total return perspective, you're likely going to get opportunities

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Speaker 7: to increase equity exposure simply because of that chop.

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Speaker 6: It seems like the last few years, in particular coming

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Speaker 6: out of COVID, there's so much doom and gloom in

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Speaker 6: twenty twenty three, twenty twenty four, where people were really

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Speaker 6: underestimating the strength of the economy and we were just

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Speaker 6: talking about cell side strategies, notoriously getting those calls wrong.

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Speaker 6: Next year, they're calling for maybe on average, around nine

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Speaker 6: percent gain in the S and P five hundred, but

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Speaker 6: we've continued to see double digit gains a year after

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Speaker 6: year here. So when you're thinking about potentially broadening out.

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Speaker 6: Are you thinking maybe the unloved corners, maybe say like

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Speaker 6: a healthcare or a real estate materials. Are we going

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Speaker 6: to see a bid for some of those that haven't

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Speaker 6: been participating in the bullmarket run over the last few years.

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Speaker 7: I think when we think of the broadening, we have

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Speaker 7: to do it in two kind of distinct time periods,

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Speaker 7: because right now we're going into twenty twenty five with

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Speaker 7: those unloved areas being so very unloved that they are

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Speaker 7: primed for some kind of snapback, but we're not quite

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Speaker 7: sure if it's sustainable, meaning that you could see a

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Speaker 7: two week or a one month period where value and

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Speaker 7: unloved areas just have a quick snap rerating. But then

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Speaker 7: the question comes to earnings. And one of the reasons

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Speaker 7: why you have seen these areas underperformed so much is

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Speaker 7: because their earnings have been actually rather abysmal. Don't forget

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Speaker 7: healthcare started this year with an expected twenty percent growth

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Speaker 7: in its earnings for twenty twenty four. The end number

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Speaker 7: will be closer to three percent, So you have to

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Speaker 7: see that deliver.

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Speaker 6: So if people are underestimating tech again and are doubting

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Speaker 6: that and then potentially miss out on another run. What

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Speaker 6: exactly do you do where do you position If you're

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Speaker 6: concerned about particular corners of tech, maybe there's other areas

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Speaker 6: within that group that you can invest in.

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Speaker 7: We're not quite sure if they're underestimating tech at this

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Speaker 7: point because estimates have been raised so much. If you

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Speaker 7: think of the growth index, it's expected to go from

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Speaker 7: four percent growth in earnings growth this year to sixteen

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Speaker 7: percent growth next year. But the kicker in that is

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Speaker 7: that the MAG seven, which is about fifty five percent

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Speaker 7: of the growth index, is set to decelerate materially next

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Speaker 7: year because we lose that super normal growth from the

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Speaker 7: names of like Nvidia and Amazon and like the base.

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Speaker 6: Effects, like the year of a year effects and not

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Speaker 6: being as strong exactly.

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Speaker 7: We have tough comps going into twenty twenty five. So

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Speaker 7: if you think about that four to sixteen percent acceleration

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Speaker 7: and growth earnings, it means that it's coming from the

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Speaker 7: forty five percent of the index that's not MAG seven,

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Speaker 7: and that's a pretty high bar. So we're not quite

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Speaker 7: sure if we're going to be able to deliver on

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Speaker 7: that degree of growth earnings, which again feeds into this

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Speaker 7: notion of maybe it's sideways chop if we can't get

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Speaker 7: that full growth that's currently being priced done.

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Speaker 3: So do I spend more time in my fixed income

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Speaker 3: part of my portfolio here and think about to your

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Speaker 3: treasury at four point three percent, maybe even taking some

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Speaker 3: credit risk. How do you think about fixed income in

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Speaker 3: the portfolio next year?

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Speaker 7: Well, fixed income from the credit perspective also has extraordinarily

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Speaker 7: high valuations. Credit spreads remain very tight. They're near the

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Speaker 7: lows of the year. That's actually a good message from

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Speaker 7: equity markets, at least in the very short term, meaning

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Speaker 7: that the equity volatility we're seeing is coming more from

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Speaker 7: interest rate volatility, maybe some positioning, not necessarily growth fears.

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Speaker 7: But if growth fears start to bubble back up, that's

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Speaker 7: where credit spreads would have a lot of room to widen.

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Speaker 7: We also think that uncorrelated assets, assets that don't care

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Speaker 7: about the fed, assets that don't care about equity markets,

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Speaker 7: are a more attractive place to be in twenty twenty

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Speaker 7: five as well, So we look at very esoteric types

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Speaker 7: of assets and litigation finance, but also things like infrastructure.

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Speaker 7: Infrastructure is an area where it's been unloved because it

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Speaker 7: can't compete with twenty percent plus returns. But if you

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Speaker 7: could give me something that's high single digits that is

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Speaker 7: not correlated to equity markets, maybe that looks more attractive.

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Speaker 3: Is that a three M, a Caterpillar, those types of names,

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Speaker 3: or is it something really infrastructure funds.

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Speaker 7: Actual infrastructure funds, because if you look at the valuations

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Speaker 7: of those industrial cyclicals, those are also trading at very

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Speaker 7: elevated valuations. Industrials got up to training twenty four times

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Speaker 7: earnings just a couple of weeks ago, So we're not

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Speaker 7: sure that it's there that you necessarily want to be

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Speaker 7: positioned simply because you're pricing in some kind of growth

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Speaker 7: reacceleration that may or may not materialize.

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Speaker 6: Talk to us about your view of the bond market,

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Speaker 6: because obviously over the summer, when we had real yields,

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Speaker 6: people looking toward that direction for steepening yel curve and

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Speaker 6: whether that was repricing sort of the risk for a recession.

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Speaker 6: But then obviously we've seen revisions to some of those

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Speaker 6: jobs reports from earlier this year, like in obviously July

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Speaker 6: and September, and then a blow out report in September,

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Speaker 6: And so how do you view that in the direction

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Speaker 6: of the bond market and kind of what that telling

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Speaker 6: us about the direction of economic growth.

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Speaker 7: Certainly the last four months of the jump in the

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Speaker 7: tenure yield is a combination of pricing out of recession risk.

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Speaker 7: I think it's also pricing in some kind of risk

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Speaker 7: that the FED could be too easy when financial conditions

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Speaker 7: are already very loose, as well as the fact that

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Speaker 7: too easy when growth is already robust, meaning that you

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Speaker 7: don't necessarily need deep interest rate cuts to stave off

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Speaker 7: some kind of recession, and so that likely is feeding

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Speaker 7: into where yields are. The one thing we're watching really

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Speaker 7: closely is that we have seen economic surprises turn lower.

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Speaker 7: So just economic data is beating less than expected, you're

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Speaker 7: not seeing it have those kind of revisions upward to

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Speaker 7: the same degree as it was earlier in the year.

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Speaker 7: And so as yields have climbed, economic surprises a turn lower,

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Speaker 7: those things typically move in the same direction. So there

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Speaker 7: is a notable divergence.

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Speaker 3: Folks, I'm telling you here, I mean the week between

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Speaker 3: Christmas and New Years, A lot of people mail it

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Speaker 3: in cam Dawson non melody. She gave us a note

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Speaker 3: today with so much stuff in there. It's gonna take

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Speaker 3: charge a couple hours. Great to read here. Sorry, so

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Speaker 3: New Edge Wealth folks go to the New Edge Wealth

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Speaker 3: and check out Cam's research. There some great stuff. Cam Dawson,

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Speaker 3: thank you so much for joining us. She's a CIO

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Speaker 3: of New Edge Wealth. We appreciate getting a few minutes

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Speaker 3: of her time and her research.

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Speaker 2: Note today, this is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live

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Speaker 2: each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play

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Speaker 2: and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can

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Speaker 2: also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New

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Speaker 2: York station Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven.

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Speaker 3: Thirty Caesar, Global head of Strategy at Credit Sites. So

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Speaker 3: Whennie again, it seemed like investors were really paid for

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Speaker 3: taking risk in twenty twenty four, what do you think

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Speaker 3: about twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, people were absolutely paid for taking some risk in

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Speaker 8: twenty twenty four, which was a view that we had

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Speaker 8: aligned with. But we've been shifting down our risk tolerance

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Speaker 8: and we actually went underweight credit risk with our twenty

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Speaker 8: twenty five outlook. And this is not necessarily because we

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Speaker 8: think that, you know, spreads are just too tight, but

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Speaker 8: we think that kind of the balance of risk reward

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Speaker 8: here does feel a bit stretched, even though all in

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Speaker 8: yields are still quite attractive, over five percent for investment grade,

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Speaker 8: over seven percent for high yield. We just think that

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Speaker 8: some volatility is probably likely to come in the beginning

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Speaker 8: of the year.

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Speaker 6: What do you think that tells us about the direction

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Speaker 6: of the economy.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, so, usually credit spreads are pretty good kind of

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Speaker 8: forecasting the direction of the economy. But I think that

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Speaker 8: at this point, perhaps credit spreads are pricing in a

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Speaker 8: little bit too much of the good and maybe not

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Speaker 8: enough of the potential headwinds. You know, we do think

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Speaker 8: that there is the potential for corporations to benefit from

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Speaker 8: things like deregulation, from the extension of tax cuts. But

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Speaker 8: on the other side, there are a lot of questions

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Speaker 8: around what does trade policy ultimately look like, what is

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Speaker 8: the direction of the Fed's path for monetary policy. Are

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Speaker 8: we actually going to see continued easing in twenty twenty

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Speaker 8: five or do we see inflation start to become more

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Speaker 8: of a challenge again and that would definitely flow through

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Speaker 8: into corporate earnings. And so we do think that perhaps

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Speaker 8: credit spreads are a little bit too optimistic at this point.

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Speaker 3: Whenie, what's your kind of your base case for twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty five in terms of the US Federal Reserve, it

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Speaker 3: seems like maybe the market's pricing and maybe two cuts

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Speaker 3: this year. How do you think about it?

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Speaker 8: Yeah, so the market has really repriced its expectations for

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Speaker 8: the FED a number of times. That's been one of

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Speaker 8: the defining characteristics of this FED both hiking and easing cycle,

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Speaker 8: that the market is constantly kind of getting ahead of

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Speaker 8: itself in terms of too many rate cuts being priced in.

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Speaker 8: At this point, we have a little bit more hawkish

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Speaker 8: expectation for the FED. We do expect that the policy

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Speaker 8: rate ends the year around four and a half percent,

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Speaker 8: which would indicate no FED cuts over the course of

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Speaker 8: twenty twenty five. Now, this could be because the FED

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Speaker 8: continues to cut rates, although we do think that the

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Speaker 8: December presser with Powell indicated probably a near term hold

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Speaker 8: is more likely, especially if the inflation data do not

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Speaker 8: continue to moderate, or if the labor data remain relatively strong,

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Speaker 8: or we could just see kind of this FED on

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Speaker 8: an indefinite hold and indefinite pause. We've seen that in

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Speaker 8: prior periods, especially kind of in the mid to late

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Speaker 8: nineteen nineties, and we see a lot of kind of

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Speaker 8: similarities to that period as we have today.

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Speaker 6: Breakdown the latest of when it comes to the corporate

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Speaker 6: bond ownership and how non US investors remain the largest

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Speaker 6: class of owners of US corporate bonds will followed by

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Speaker 6: life insurance companies as well as mutual funds.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, so when we think about the technicals of the market,

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Speaker 8: this is a really important driver and I think one

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Speaker 8: of the really important drivers of why credit spreads are

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Speaker 8: so tight right now. You have historically kind of the

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Speaker 8: core institutional base of owners, things like life insurance companies,

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Speaker 8: pension funds, you know, those investors who buy bonds to

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Speaker 8: hold them to maturity. They don't trade them around. They

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Speaker 8: want the income that's generated from the coupon. And then

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Speaker 8: you have a few different cohorts of investors that tend

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Speaker 8: to be a little bit less sticky in their investments.

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Speaker 8: This is sometimes some of the non US investors because

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Speaker 8: they do tend to up and down their allocations to

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Speaker 8: US credit depending on what is going on in the

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Speaker 8: broader global economy in their domestic economies and also what's

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Speaker 8: going on within FX. And then we have the retail investors,

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Speaker 8: so ETF and mutual funds, and we've seen a pretty

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Speaker 8: significant increase in holdings of ETF and mutual funds. Usually

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Speaker 8: those are the first ones kind of out the door

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Speaker 8: when you start to see some volatility in the market.

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Speaker 8: So the fact that we have a higher concentration of

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Speaker 8: holding in that less sticky investor base is something that

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Speaker 8: could drive some volatility over the course of twenty twenty

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Speaker 8: five if some of those investors start to get spooked

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Speaker 8: by perhaps you know, negative headlines or a renewed round

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Speaker 8: of researched recession fears or stagflation fears.

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Speaker 3: When he talked to us about credit, how's credit quality

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Speaker 3: out there? I haven't heard any really bad stories about

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Speaker 3: credit quality. I'm not sure why that is.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, So I think that this is one of the

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Speaker 8: kind of bright shining spots for credit. Right now. Credit

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Speaker 8: quality is generally pretty okay. We had credit really be

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Speaker 8: a tremendous beneficiary from ultra low borrowing costs in twenty

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Speaker 8: twenty and twenty twenty one, combined with earnings that really

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Speaker 8: beat expectations for a number of the periods in the

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Speaker 8: pandemic and even following the pandemic, and that left credit

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Speaker 8: fundamentals in really solid shape overall. Now they have moderated,

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Speaker 8: they've definitely reapproached we would kind of view as average

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Speaker 8: or kind of long term normal levels. But we haven't

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Speaker 8: seen a massive spike in defaults that a lot of

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Speaker 8: people were expecting in twenty twenty two, in early twenty

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Speaker 8: twenty three when the FED started hiking rates, and even

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Speaker 8: some of those asset classes that are much more leveraged,

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Speaker 8: like the leverage loan market where we've seen a lot

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Speaker 8: of sponsor backed activity for LBOs and M and A,

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Speaker 8: they've held in relatively well overall. We do think that

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Speaker 8: we're moving into a bit of a transition period. If

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Speaker 8: borrowing costs remain somewhat elevated because the FED is not

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Speaker 8: able to cut rates as much as people want them

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Speaker 8: to or think that they should, or if treasure yields

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Speaker 8: just remain elevated because you have other inflationary forces or

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Speaker 8: deficit concerns, or a whole host of factors that could

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Speaker 8: keep treasure yields a bit sticky, then you are going

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Speaker 8: to need to see earnings generation be very strong as

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Speaker 8: well to kind of offset that perpetually elevated borrowing costs.

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Speaker 8: And we do have some concerns that perhaps the type

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Speaker 8: of earnings momentum that people are expecting to see Corporate

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Speaker 8: America generate in twenty twenty five is a little bit

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Speaker 8: optimistic right now.

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Speaker 3: You know, Winnie, I'm sure you're diversified in your portfolios,

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Speaker 3: but you are not diversified in your education. Look at this,

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Speaker 3: she gets her undergraduate degree at Emory University. Okay, great

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Speaker 3: school down in Atlanta. Awesome, and then she stays for

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Speaker 3: another four years getting her jd MBA. I mean that's

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Speaker 3: eight years at Emory University. I mean, I guess you

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Speaker 3: liked it there, Winnie. Good school now jd MBA.

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Speaker 7: Really yeah.

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Speaker 8: I mean it was a great opportunity, and you know,

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Speaker 8: a sad day with the passing of President Carter yep,

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Speaker 8: But we did benefit from the Carter Center and he

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Speaker 8: spoke at Emory a number of times, which was always a.

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Speaker 3: Delight, very good, just such an awesome, awesome school down

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Speaker 3: there in Atlanta. Emory University. I mean, they've got the

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Speaker 3: law school, the business school, the medicals, they've got everything.

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Speaker 3: It's just awesome down there in the great city of Atlanta.

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Speaker 3: Down in Georgia. I'm sure mourning the passing of President Carter.

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Speaker 3: Winnie Caesar at Global head of Strategy at Credit Sites,

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Speaker 3: we appreciate getting a few minutes of a time.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

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Speaker 2: starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android

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Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch

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Speaker 2: us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Terminal.

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Speaker 3: Your daily look at the front pages around the world,

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Speaker 3: Lis Miteo, what do you got the newspapers today? Sure?

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Speaker 1: I wanted to point out what Michael Barr has been

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Speaker 1: talking about. The tributes for former US President Jimmy Carter,

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Speaker 1: there keep coming in. You had President Joe Biden called

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Speaker 1: him an extraordinary leader, statesman, humanitarian. You had President like

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump who said all Americans Oha Medet of Gratitude.

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Speaker 1: Then you go to former President Bill Clinton. Remember he

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Speaker 1: awarded Carter, his late wife, the Presidential Medal of Freedom.

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Speaker 1: They said he worked tirelessly for a better fair world.

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Speaker 1: And even President Abra Obama said President Carner taught us

439
00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:04,200
Speaker 1: all of what it means the live a life of grace, digny,

440
00:24:04,480 --> 00:24:07,359
Speaker 1: justice and service. But they're coming in from worldwide, you know,

441
00:24:07,440 --> 00:24:09,760
Speaker 1: not just from from around here. And we've been talking

442
00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:11,359
Speaker 1: about it all morning, you know, not only in the

443
00:24:11,359 --> 00:24:13,760
Speaker 1: White House, but what he's done outside of that.

444
00:24:14,160 --> 00:24:17,399
Speaker 3: Yeah, I saw a tweet from Admiral Strevetus, who was

445
00:24:17,400 --> 00:24:20,280
Speaker 3: a guest on Bloomberg Surveillance. Oftentimes he's a voice we

446
00:24:20,840 --> 00:24:24,680
Speaker 3: really look to for geopolitics. Obviously, a navy man said,

447
00:24:24,720 --> 00:24:26,360
Speaker 3: you know, just kind of highlighted the fact that he

448
00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:30,680
Speaker 3: was the only graduated US Naval Academy to be President's

449
00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:32,120
Speaker 3: thought that was pretty.

450
00:24:31,800 --> 00:24:34,800
Speaker 6: Cool, too, right, And typically you have a market holiday once,

451
00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:37,680
Speaker 6: I believe potentially it might be on the ninth, if

452
00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:40,000
Speaker 6: that's the national sort of day. Usually the markets are

453
00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:42,080
Speaker 6: closed on that. But we'll see what the New York

454
00:24:42,119 --> 00:24:44,440
Speaker 6: Stock Exchange and others about say about that.

455
00:24:44,520 --> 00:24:47,359
Speaker 4: If they do. Yeah, it's true, that is true. Okay.

456
00:24:47,400 --> 00:24:49,960
Speaker 1: When to go to this Wall Street Journal study, it

457
00:24:50,000 --> 00:24:52,840
Speaker 1: shows how people with higher salaries and networth tend to

458
00:24:52,880 --> 00:24:54,280
Speaker 1: live longer lives.

459
00:24:54,320 --> 00:24:56,240
Speaker 4: But here's the thing though that stood out to me.

460
00:24:56,480 --> 00:24:58,239
Speaker 1: It's not just about how much money you have, but

461
00:24:58,280 --> 00:25:00,760
Speaker 1: also how you spend it. Okay, so this was in

462
00:25:00,800 --> 00:25:03,720
Speaker 1: the jama Internal Medicine. Once Americans make it to the

463
00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:06,119
Speaker 1: late fifties. The wealthiest ten percent they live to a

464
00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:07,640
Speaker 1: medium age of around.

465
00:25:07,359 --> 00:25:08,760
Speaker 4: Eighty six years.

466
00:25:09,080 --> 00:25:12,880
Speaker 1: Yes, that's about listen to this, fourteen years longer than

467
00:25:12,920 --> 00:25:14,760
Speaker 1: the least wealthy ten percent.

468
00:25:15,600 --> 00:25:17,960
Speaker 4: Yeah. So they get into kind of the reasons why.

469
00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:18,960
Speaker 4: I mean, you think about it.

470
00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:21,280
Speaker 1: You know, people with more money can afford healthier food,

471
00:25:21,440 --> 00:25:25,760
Speaker 1: more healthcare homes in safer, less polluted neighborhoods. They stress

472
00:25:25,800 --> 00:25:28,240
Speaker 1: about less things like how to put food on the table, Like.

473
00:25:28,200 --> 00:25:29,439
Speaker 4: You don't have to worry about that.

474
00:25:29,800 --> 00:25:33,480
Speaker 1: A lot of lower income jobs are pretty physically demanding.

475
00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:36,320
Speaker 1: But the interesting part was that it's not just about

476
00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:38,360
Speaker 1: how much money but how you spend it. So they

477
00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:41,919
Speaker 1: suggest certain things how you can reduce stress if you

478
00:25:42,000 --> 00:25:43,960
Speaker 1: don't have all the money. Okay, so you do the

479
00:25:44,040 --> 00:25:46,080
Speaker 1: at home gym equipment, right, you can't afford the.

480
00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:51,120
Speaker 3: Gym account if you watch somebody.

481
00:25:53,359 --> 00:25:54,439
Speaker 4: Else I do that.

482
00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:54,880
Speaker 3: Well.

483
00:25:55,240 --> 00:25:58,240
Speaker 1: I take just going out walking, like maybe go out

484
00:25:58,280 --> 00:25:59,200
Speaker 1: for a walk on the beach.

485
00:25:59,280 --> 00:26:01,240
Speaker 4: There, you see, you can do that. Good.

486
00:26:01,320 --> 00:26:01,520
Speaker 5: Good.

487
00:26:02,359 --> 00:26:04,919
Speaker 1: Limiting the screen time okay before bed, that's another thing

488
00:26:05,040 --> 00:26:05,480
Speaker 1: that's hard.

489
00:26:05,600 --> 00:26:06,560
Speaker 4: Okay, how about this one.

490
00:26:06,640 --> 00:26:11,879
Speaker 1: Drinking less alcohol, eating less restaurant food, Okay, it's not

491
00:26:11,920 --> 00:26:12,520
Speaker 1: only good.

492
00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:15,199
Speaker 4: For you, it's going to save you some money. No, no, no.

493
00:26:15,600 --> 00:26:19,119
Speaker 3: Right, here's gerontologist from Cornell University. I often tell people

494
00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:21,680
Speaker 3: one of the best ways to stay physically and cognitively

495
00:26:21,720 --> 00:26:23,960
Speaker 3: fit is to go into ballroom dancing.

496
00:26:24,000 --> 00:26:24,760
Speaker 4: Oh have you tried it?

497
00:26:26,840 --> 00:26:29,960
Speaker 3: I'm not a dancer. Maybe no surprise to anyone.

498
00:26:29,600 --> 00:26:32,400
Speaker 6: In this New Year's Resolution five.

499
00:26:33,400 --> 00:26:35,200
Speaker 4: It's a good workout, I'm telling you.

500
00:26:35,560 --> 00:26:37,800
Speaker 1: Also, those gadgets, they say, like the Apple Watch, so

501
00:26:37,880 --> 00:26:41,600
Speaker 1: what is it? The ring skills they say, they're good.

502
00:26:42,359 --> 00:26:44,239
Speaker 4: It keeps you on track. I don't know. It makes

503
00:26:44,240 --> 00:26:46,000
Speaker 4: you a little paranoid about your health too, But at

504
00:26:46,040 --> 00:26:47,840
Speaker 4: the same time it does keep you on track.

505
00:26:48,119 --> 00:26:48,680
Speaker 3: Legs or arms.

506
00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:51,159
Speaker 4: Today, today is actually my day off. I heard the

507
00:26:51,200 --> 00:26:51,960
Speaker 4: less skiing.

508
00:26:53,640 --> 00:26:56,040
Speaker 3: Take you a little bit of this weekend.

509
00:26:56,119 --> 00:26:58,520
Speaker 4: So you did, and you mentioned were the.

510
00:26:58,600 --> 00:26:59,840
Speaker 1: Rain not good?

511
00:27:00,200 --> 00:27:01,040
Speaker 3: No, it's not good.

512
00:27:01,119 --> 00:27:03,200
Speaker 1: No, it was back by where we were like all

513
00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:05,160
Speaker 1: in Camelback and Jack Frost and all that area.

514
00:27:05,240 --> 00:27:08,200
Speaker 4: Yep, hit hard by that rang Yep. Not good there.

515
00:27:08,920 --> 00:27:10,800
Speaker 1: Okay, so this one I thought it was interesting. Also

516
00:27:10,800 --> 00:27:13,919
Speaker 1: in the journal, fewer higher level jobs, right, so you

517
00:27:13,920 --> 00:27:17,280
Speaker 1: have corporate America thinning out the management ranks. So this

518
00:27:17,320 --> 00:27:19,879
Speaker 1: is live data technologies. They say, US public companies have

519
00:27:19,960 --> 00:27:22,880
Speaker 1: cut their middle manager head counts by about six percent

520
00:27:23,000 --> 00:27:23,800
Speaker 1: since the peak.

521
00:27:23,600 --> 00:27:24,920
Speaker 4: Of the pandemic hiring spree.

522
00:27:25,600 --> 00:27:28,600
Speaker 1: A lot of the biggest cuts human resource departments. But

523
00:27:28,760 --> 00:27:31,640
Speaker 1: because of that, you have former bosses that are shifting

524
00:27:31,640 --> 00:27:35,960
Speaker 1: to non supervisory positions. You have workers rethinking their career

525
00:27:36,000 --> 00:27:37,600
Speaker 1: paths because they're saying, well, if I'm not going to

526
00:27:37,600 --> 00:27:39,600
Speaker 1: get up to this next level, what am I going

527
00:27:39,680 --> 00:27:42,800
Speaker 1: to do next? And then the managers who did survive,

528
00:27:42,920 --> 00:27:44,960
Speaker 1: they have like three times a workload on their plates.

529
00:27:45,680 --> 00:27:48,320
Speaker 1: So all this and then the companies are also struggling

530
00:27:48,359 --> 00:27:51,399
Speaker 1: to how them motivate the workers who just feel burnt

531
00:27:51,400 --> 00:27:53,359
Speaker 1: out and who are feel like they're stuck.

532
00:27:53,800 --> 00:27:54,800
Speaker 4: So it was pretty coo.

533
00:27:54,800 --> 00:27:56,840
Speaker 3: Well, I worked on Wall Street my whole career, and

534
00:27:56,880 --> 00:28:01,760
Speaker 3: there's an agism issue, which is late forties, maybe fifty

535
00:28:02,400 --> 00:28:05,600
Speaker 3: that's it. For ninety percent of the professionals on Wall

536
00:28:05,640 --> 00:28:08,479
Speaker 3: Street age out and for a variety of reasons, one

537
00:28:08,520 --> 00:28:10,639
Speaker 3: of which is you've become too expensive and you can

538
00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:14,119
Speaker 3: find somebody lower cost to do your job. That's it.

539
00:28:14,240 --> 00:28:18,040
Speaker 3: I'm telling you ninety percent of the professionals on Wall Street.

540
00:28:18,040 --> 00:28:22,679
Speaker 3: You age out at late forties, maybe fifty. That's the

541
00:28:22,680 --> 00:28:24,240
Speaker 3: bad news. The good news is you've made a good

542
00:28:24,240 --> 00:28:28,359
Speaker 3: living through those years, that you have options. You can

543
00:28:28,400 --> 00:28:30,439
Speaker 3: go to Bloomberg and start a research department, for example,

544
00:28:31,880 --> 00:28:35,720
Speaker 3: and then go into radio. But that's the thing I'm

545
00:28:35,720 --> 00:28:36,080
Speaker 3: telling you.

546
00:28:36,240 --> 00:28:38,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, And they also say to AI could be like

547
00:28:38,240 --> 00:28:40,320
Speaker 1: a part of the because they could take up taking

548
00:28:40,360 --> 00:28:42,160
Speaker 1: over some of those positions as well.

549
00:28:42,240 --> 00:28:43,440
Speaker 4: So something to think about.

550
00:28:44,200 --> 00:28:45,800
Speaker 1: And the last one, this was studying the New York

551
00:28:45,800 --> 00:28:48,600
Speaker 1: posts that I that I found out remote.

552
00:28:48,320 --> 00:28:51,560
Speaker 4: Employees feel their social skills have declined when they're working

553
00:28:51,640 --> 00:28:52,040
Speaker 4: from home.

554
00:28:52,120 --> 00:28:55,040
Speaker 1: So this is from resume builder dot com. Twenty five

555
00:28:55,040 --> 00:28:56,560
Speaker 1: percent of those who work from home say that their

556
00:28:56,640 --> 00:28:59,480
Speaker 1: social skills declined. Millennial, as they say, are the most

557
00:28:59,520 --> 00:29:04,120
Speaker 1: obsessed susceptible to it, things like initiating conversations, right, making

558
00:29:04,160 --> 00:29:06,400
Speaker 1: eye contact, taking part in group discussions.

559
00:29:06,600 --> 00:29:12,400
Speaker 4: What about gen Z Millennials? What about that other one millennial?

560
00:29:12,680 --> 00:29:15,280
Speaker 4: But like, hey, what about the gen Z gen z is?

561
00:29:15,320 --> 00:29:18,440
Speaker 6: What like they're younger, the ones after me?

562
00:29:18,520 --> 00:29:20,640
Speaker 3: Okay, those are my kids, I guess.

563
00:29:20,800 --> 00:29:23,160
Speaker 1: Yes, yes, yes, yes, but that's what they're saying just

564
00:29:23,200 --> 00:29:25,440
Speaker 1: because they are kind of growing up in it.

565
00:29:25,560 --> 00:29:26,840
Speaker 4: I guess that's that's what they know.

566
00:29:28,360 --> 00:29:30,760
Speaker 3: My daughter I have a ton of respect for. She's

567
00:29:30,800 --> 00:29:35,320
Speaker 3: so much smarter than her knuckle head brothers. She she's

568
00:29:35,360 --> 00:29:38,080
Speaker 3: four days a week, but it's a it's a stretch.

569
00:29:38,360 --> 00:29:41,280
Speaker 3: She feels like it's an imposition, I think, to be

570
00:29:41,320 --> 00:29:44,400
Speaker 3: four days a week, it's and yes, and as opposed

571
00:29:44,400 --> 00:29:47,760
Speaker 3: to just a more flex hybrid thing. And that's but

572
00:29:47,840 --> 00:29:52,120
Speaker 3: she's reasonable, she's not like she's a totally reasonable representation

573
00:29:52,160 --> 00:29:57,520
Speaker 3: of her age group. But it doesn't seem natural to them. Why, Well,

574
00:29:58,040 --> 00:29:58,479
Speaker 3: I don't know.

575
00:29:58,880 --> 00:30:01,479
Speaker 6: I mean I was always going into the office before COVID,

576
00:30:01,520 --> 00:30:04,280
Speaker 6: so it's a it's different. But I mean we're still

577
00:30:04,280 --> 00:30:05,640
Speaker 6: all my WESD was.

578
00:30:06,400 --> 00:30:09,560
Speaker 3: I mean for first twenty five years of my working career.

579
00:30:10,000 --> 00:30:12,560
Speaker 3: Can I get a day off? Can I please get

580
00:30:12,600 --> 00:30:16,600
Speaker 3: Sunday off? You know, because we work Saturdays, and you know,

581
00:30:16,720 --> 00:30:18,120
Speaker 3: do I have to comment on Sunday?

582
00:30:18,520 --> 00:30:18,880
Speaker 5: Really?

583
00:30:19,840 --> 00:30:22,920
Speaker 3: You know that was such a dragon, but we got

584
00:30:22,920 --> 00:30:23,960
Speaker 3: paid for it somewhat.

585
00:30:23,760 --> 00:30:24,560
Speaker 5: That but you did.

586
00:30:25,240 --> 00:30:27,760
Speaker 4: But then the agism thing does that doesn't help with it?

587
00:30:28,240 --> 00:30:28,360
Speaker 6: All?

588
00:30:28,440 --> 00:30:32,120
Speaker 3: Right, Lisa Mite with those newspapers making you think every day.

589
00:30:32,440 --> 00:30:36,920
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

590
00:30:37,080 --> 00:30:41,200
Speaker 2: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,

591
00:30:41,280 --> 00:30:44,360
Speaker 2: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

592
00:30:44,440 --> 00:30:48,240
Speaker 2: iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You

593
00:30:48,280 --> 00:30:51,600
Speaker 2: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and

594
00:30:51,720 --> 00:30:53,320
Speaker 2: always on the Bloomberg Terminal