WEBVTT - Bloomberg Daybreak: September 27, 2022 - Hour 1 (Radio) 0:00:00.720 --> 0:00:04.000 Bye from the Bloomberg Interactive Brooker Studios. This is Bloomberg 0:00:04.120 --> 0:00:07.720 day Break for Tuesday, September twenty seven two. Coming up 0:00:07.720 --> 0:00:10.959 this hour, US futures rise following the lowest close for 0:00:11.000 --> 0:00:14.160 the SMP five hundred in almost two years. Despite the 0:00:14.160 --> 0:00:18.079 market turmoil, Feed officials remain hawkish in their fight against inflation. 0:00:18.239 --> 0:00:21.600 Double Line Capital's Jeffrey Gunlack thinks the worst global bond 0:00:21.680 --> 0:00:24.720 route in decades maybe over, and traders increased bets the 0:00:24.720 --> 0:00:27.880 pound could fall to parody with the dollar hurricaney and 0:00:27.960 --> 0:00:31.120 his gaining strength as it heads toward Florida. Plus, we've 0:00:31.200 --> 0:00:33.800 learned that it was a small tornado that sets down 0:00:33.920 --> 0:00:36.959 late Sunday on Long Island. I'm Michael barn More. I'm 0:00:37.000 --> 0:00:39.159 down fash Our in sports, the Giant Stuff for their 0:00:39.159 --> 0:00:44.760 first lost being Yankees lost in extrainnings in Toronto. That's 0:00:44.760 --> 0:00:48.120 all s Tradyhead on Bloomberg day Break on Bloomberg. He 0:00:48.200 --> 0:00:51.960 live in Free on New York, Bloomberg one, Washington, d C, 0:00:52.440 --> 0:00:56.720 Bloomberg one oh six one, Boston, Bloomberg nine sixties, San Francisco, 0:00:57.200 --> 0:01:00.200 Sirius x M one nine team and around the World 0:01:00.000 --> 0:01:03.080 Old on Bloomberg Radio dot Com and via the Bloomberg 0:01:03.080 --> 0:01:10.319 Business App. And good morning. I'm Karen Moscow, I'm Nathan Hagar. 0:01:10.360 --> 0:01:13.560 Bloomberg Daybreak is brought to you by SEI. Asset managers 0:01:13.600 --> 0:01:15.440 don't get results that are off the charts when their 0:01:15.480 --> 0:01:18.240 solutions are off the shelf. Learn how SEI is operating 0:01:18.240 --> 0:01:21.959 platform can turn infrastructure into a competitive advantage at s 0:01:22.000 --> 0:01:25.400 E i C dot Com, slash Tech and US futures 0:01:25.400 --> 0:01:27.720 are higher this morning five oh one on Wall Street. 0:01:27.800 --> 0:01:30.400 We checked the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day. 0:01:30.480 --> 0:01:33.640 On Bloomberg, SMP future is up thirty nine points. DAL 0:01:33.720 --> 0:01:36.280 futures have two hundred forty five and NASDACK future is 0:01:36.360 --> 0:01:39.440 up on thirty nine. The decks in Germany is up 0:01:39.440 --> 0:01:42.280 a quarter percent and the tenure treasury of twenty three 0:01:42.319 --> 0:01:46.319 thirty seconds three point eight two percent Nathan Karen. The 0:01:46.400 --> 0:01:49.120 rise in futures this morning follows the lowest clothes for 0:01:49.160 --> 0:01:52.560 the SMP five hundred since December of twenty twenty ten. 0:01:52.640 --> 0:01:55.240 Year treasury yields are holding their their highest level since 0:01:56.320 --> 0:01:59.520 while the dollar has snapped a five day gain still. 0:01:59.640 --> 0:02:02.960 Daniel Gerard, multi assets strategist at State Streets sees more 0:02:03.000 --> 0:02:05.880 strength for the dollar ahead as we get more bad 0:02:05.880 --> 0:02:09.000 news that's going to really hit the earnings growth and 0:02:09.040 --> 0:02:12.240 the earning growth potential, margins, etcetera. And there were just 0:02:12.480 --> 0:02:15.000 isn't um. There aren't a lot of good stories to 0:02:15.040 --> 0:02:17.200 find out here, and I think that we're in a 0:02:17.240 --> 0:02:20.480 relative world. We've got to do our best. But US 0:02:20.560 --> 0:02:24.639 dollar looks like the uh the asset to hold right now, 0:02:25.080 --> 0:02:28.840 State Streets. Daniel Gerard favors equities over bonds going forward 0:02:29.240 --> 0:02:32.720 well as fears of a global recession continue to swirl. Nathan, 0:02:32.800 --> 0:02:35.840 we have a couple more bearish calls on equities this morning, 0:02:35.880 --> 0:02:39.080 and we get the details from Bloomberg's Lisa Mateo. Goldman 0:02:39.120 --> 0:02:42.000 Sacks and black Rock are both warning that markets are 0:02:42.080 --> 0:02:44.360 yet to price and the risk of a global recession. 0:02:44.560 --> 0:02:48.079 Goldman strategists, flagging rising real yields as a major headwind, 0:02:48.240 --> 0:02:51.400 cut equities to underweight in the US investment banks global 0:02:51.440 --> 0:02:56.360 allocation over the next three months. It's staying overweight in cash. Meantime, 0:02:56.400 --> 0:02:59.880 black Rock is advising investors to shun most stocks. It's 0:03:00.120 --> 0:03:03.560 that it is tactically underweight developed market shares and the 0:03:03.639 --> 0:03:06.600 first credit in the short term. In New York Lisa 0:03:06.600 --> 0:03:10.239 Mateo Bloomberg Daybreak, Lisa, thank you. The turmoil and market 0:03:10.280 --> 0:03:14.200 shows little sign of turning Fed officials away from hawkish policy. 0:03:14.320 --> 0:03:17.720 Boston Fed President Susan Collins and her Cleveland counterpart Lorette 0:03:17.720 --> 0:03:21.239 Smester say additional tightening is still needed to slow inflation. 0:03:21.440 --> 0:03:24.600 Here's Collins in her first public speech since taking office. 0:03:24.800 --> 0:03:28.680 Returning inflation to our two percent target will require further 0:03:28.800 --> 0:03:33.000 tightening of monetary policy, as signaled in the recent f 0:03:33.080 --> 0:03:37.040 O MC projections. It will be important to see clear 0:03:37.120 --> 0:03:41.119 and convincing signs that inflation is falling. At the same time, 0:03:41.160 --> 0:03:44.120 Boston FED President Susan Collins says it is quite likely 0:03:44.160 --> 0:03:47.400 inflation may have peaked. Well, there's at least one major 0:03:47.560 --> 0:03:50.680 investor who thinks the worst global bond route in decades 0:03:50.760 --> 0:03:53.640 is creating a buying opportunity. Nathan and a tweet double 0:03:53.640 --> 0:03:57.360 line Capitals. Jeffrey Gunlow says, quote the US treasury bond 0:03:57.400 --> 0:04:01.040 market is rallying. He says he's been dying. The British 0:04:01.080 --> 0:04:03.640 pound is stronger today, Karen, after hitting a record low 0:04:03.720 --> 0:04:06.840 on Monday. Still traders are increasing bet sterling could fold 0:04:06.840 --> 0:04:09.080 a parody with the dollar. Let's go to London and 0:04:09.120 --> 0:04:12.440 get the latest with Bloomberg's Human Parts. Good morning, Karen, Nathan. 0:04:12.480 --> 0:04:15.320 The pounds and guilt recovering some ground today after that 0:04:15.480 --> 0:04:19.960 historic sell off. Sterling rallying after collapsing to a record 0:04:20.120 --> 0:04:23.760 low against the dollar on Monday. The UK markets still 0:04:23.839 --> 0:04:27.159 vulnerable after the plunge that followed when new Chancellor quas 0:04:27.320 --> 0:04:31.880 quarteing unveiled the country's biggest fiscal giveaway in half a century. 0:04:32.279 --> 0:04:35.320 He said to meet top bankers later today. It may 0:04:35.360 --> 0:04:37.960 not be the warm reception that he was originally hoping 0:04:38.000 --> 0:04:40.640 for in London. I'm you and parts sploom Boke, daybreak 0:04:40.839 --> 0:04:43.320 for you and thank you and Asia. Overnight, starks traded 0:04:43.360 --> 0:04:46.320 slightly higher despite yesterday's sell off. In the US, we 0:04:46.400 --> 0:04:50.120 get the recount from Bloomberg's Juliette Sally and Singapore. Good morning, Juliet, 0:04:50.400 --> 0:04:53.640 Good morning Karen. A gage of the region's equities fluctuated 0:04:53.760 --> 0:04:56.760 as shares edged higher in Japan and Australia, while Hong 0:04:56.839 --> 0:04:59.920 Kong stocks traded at an eleven year low. Bonds from 0:05:00.240 --> 0:05:02.520 under pressure in Australia and Japan, where the yield on 0:05:02.560 --> 0:05:05.080 the twenty year topped one percent for the first time since, 0:05:06.200 --> 0:05:09.040 prompting the Bank of Japan to announce another unscheduled bond 0:05:09.120 --> 0:05:12.480 buying operation, this time at the long end in Singapore, 0:05:12.560 --> 0:05:15.640 Juliet Sally Bloomber daybreak. All right, Juliet, thank you. Back 0:05:15.680 --> 0:05:18.160 here in the US, gasoline prices have fallen from their 0:05:18.160 --> 0:05:20.680 peak this summer, but they're still weighing on the White House, 0:05:20.920 --> 0:05:23.640 and that has President Biden sending a message to fuel 0:05:23.680 --> 0:05:37.800 companies prices now. President Biden spoke at a meeting of 0:05:37.839 --> 0:05:41.040 his White House Competition Council. Oil prices fell more than 0:05:41.160 --> 0:05:44.040 nine percent last month. Gas has followed suit, but the 0:05:44.080 --> 0:05:47.080 President says prices are uneven across the country, especially in 0:05:47.120 --> 0:05:50.000 the West, due to low refining capacity. Checking oil now 0:05:50.120 --> 0:05:53.080 NIMEX crewed is up one percent, or eighty nine cents 0:05:53.080 --> 0:05:55.800 at seventy seven dollars sixty one cents a barrel. Brent 0:05:56.160 --> 0:05:59.600 is at eighty five dollars fifteen cents meantime on Capitol 0:05:59.640 --> 0:06:02.040 Hill and they than the possibility of a government shutdown 0:06:02.200 --> 0:06:05.200 looms this week and now Senate Democrats have released a 0:06:05.320 --> 0:06:07.839 short term funding bill to try to avoid a shutdown. 0:06:08.080 --> 0:06:11.960 Bloomberg's Amy Morris has the details from our newsroom in Washington. 0:06:12.200 --> 0:06:14.920 The bill would keep the government open through December sixteenth. 0:06:15.160 --> 0:06:18.400 It includes a measure that will speed up energy project permits, 0:06:18.480 --> 0:06:21.800 something that's opposed by Republicans and some Democrats. Congress can 0:06:21.839 --> 0:06:24.200 strip that out if it's a deal breaker. It provides 0:06:24.279 --> 0:06:27.560 twelve point four billion dollars in Ukraine aid. It includes 0:06:27.640 --> 0:06:31.040 two billion dollars for disaster aid and another billion dollars 0:06:31.120 --> 0:06:34.119 for home heating assistance. It allows the FDA to collect 0:06:34.240 --> 0:06:37.200 user fees for five years to prevent a funding shortfall 0:06:37.279 --> 0:06:40.160 at the Food and Drug Administration. Congress must pass the 0:06:40.240 --> 0:06:44.520 measure by midnight Friday in Washington. I'm Amy Morris, Bloomberg Daybreak. 0:06:44.560 --> 0:06:47.080 All right, Amy, thank you, and incorporate news of Biogen 0:06:47.160 --> 0:06:50.280 whistleblower will collect almost two undred fifty million dollars for 0:06:50.360 --> 0:06:53.640 exposing a kickback scheme. The company agreed to resolve the 0:06:53.680 --> 0:06:56.440 matter by paying the US and state government's nine hundred 0:06:56.480 --> 0:06:59.880 million dollars. The False Claims Act allows individuals to sue 0:07:00.000 --> 0:07:01.920 on behalf of the US and get a cut of 0:07:01.960 --> 0:07:05.080 any money received. Right now, SMP futures are up thirty 0:07:05.160 --> 0:07:08.120 four points down, futures up two twenty NASTAC futures are 0:07:08.200 --> 0:07:10.440 higher by a hundred twenty four points, and the tenure 0:07:10.480 --> 0:07:13.920 treasury is up one seconds. The yield three point eight 0:07:14.000 --> 0:07:16.880 three percent. Straight ahead, your latest local headlines and a 0:07:17.000 --> 0:07:24.000 check of sports. This is Sploomberg. It's south five oh 0:07:24.120 --> 0:07:26.080 seven on Wall Street. We're at sixty two degrees in 0:07:26.160 --> 0:07:28.080 Central Park. You've got a broken down vehicle on the 0:07:28.120 --> 0:07:31.840 southbounded Jersey Turnpike truck lanes. Bags at ten. Details coming 0:07:31.920 --> 0:07:34.200 up in traffic. First Michael Barr with what else is 0:07:34.240 --> 0:07:36.640 going on in New York and around the world. Good morning, Michael, 0:07:36.720 --> 0:07:39.720 Good morning Nathan. Hurricane Ian is gaining strength thick Cuba 0:07:40.000 --> 0:07:42.720 on a path towards Florida. It is threatening to become 0:07:42.760 --> 0:07:45.760 the worst storm to hit Tampa in over a century. 0:07:46.080 --> 0:07:49.000 The National Hurricane Center says Ian is now a Category 0:07:49.080 --> 0:07:53.240 three storm. Mandatory evacuations are in parts of Florida. State 0:07:53.320 --> 0:07:57.160 Emergency Management Director Kevin Guthrie is in Penellas County. We 0:07:57.280 --> 0:08:00.160 do have telephone companies on standby ready to for a 0:08:00.240 --> 0:08:03.360 critical cellular service of power's loss, but in the meantime, 0:08:03.720 --> 0:08:07.280 Florida should be prepared to have a communications plan in 0:08:07.440 --> 0:08:11.160 place with her families. Bloomberg meteorologist Rob Caroline has the 0:08:11.240 --> 0:08:15.400 latest on Ian Michael. Hurricane Ian made landfall over western 0:08:15.480 --> 0:08:18.080 Cuba earlier this morning. Is a major hurricane with sustained 0:08:18.080 --> 0:08:20.000 winds of a hundred and fifteen miles an hour. It 0:08:20.000 --> 0:08:22.280 will re emerge in the eastern Gulf of Mexico later 0:08:22.400 --> 0:08:25.240 this morning and then restrengthen and work its way up 0:08:25.280 --> 0:08:27.840 towards the Tampa area. Looks like it will be making 0:08:27.920 --> 0:08:30.840 landfalls somewhere in Pinellas County late Wednesday night or early 0:08:30.920 --> 0:08:33.160 Thursday morning, and the problem with the storm is it 0:08:33.200 --> 0:08:35.559 will be very strong at that time. It's also going 0:08:35.640 --> 0:08:37.520 to stall out, and it looks like it is going 0:08:37.559 --> 0:08:40.280 to rake the Tampa area for maybe twenty four to 0:08:40.360 --> 0:08:44.520 thirty six hours with high winds, heavy rain and storm searches. Michael, Rob, 0:08:44.600 --> 0:08:47.600 thank you, sir. We're learning that a small tornado touchdown 0:08:47.679 --> 0:08:51.559 on Long Island last Sunday night, the National Weather Service 0:08:51.640 --> 0:08:54.319 says and e of zero twister hit part of the 0:08:54.600 --> 0:08:57.920 Suffolk County area around eleven pm. They say the tornado 0:08:58.000 --> 0:09:00.880 had an estimated peak wind of about seventy five miles 0:09:00.920 --> 0:09:03.319 per hour. When he hit the town of Matatuck, no 0:09:03.480 --> 0:09:07.400 serious damage. Five days after President Vladimir Putin announced the 0:09:07.440 --> 0:09:10.360 partial mobilization to call up hundreds of thousands of reservists 0:09:10.600 --> 0:09:14.439 to fight in Ukraine, the move continues to trigger outrage 0:09:14.480 --> 0:09:17.880 protests across Russia. It has also led to an exodus 0:09:17.960 --> 0:09:20.840 of men of fighting age from the country and acts 0:09:20.920 --> 0:09:25.640 of violence. NASA deliberately crashed a dark spacecraft into the 0:09:25.800 --> 0:09:29.079 small moon of an asteroid seven million miles away from 0:09:29.120 --> 0:09:32.880 Earth in an attempt to change its orbit. Planetary scientists 0:09:32.920 --> 0:09:36.120 Emily Lackadoo says that this is the first time that 0:09:36.280 --> 0:09:38.800 humans have altered the path of another object in the 0:09:38.880 --> 0:09:41.840 Solar System. Well, this one poses no threat to us. 0:09:42.280 --> 0:09:45.760 It does give us the first experience and understanding how 0:09:45.840 --> 0:09:50.160 we could prevent a civilization devastating threat if discovered in 0:09:50.200 --> 0:09:54.559 the future. Pardon the Planetary scientist Emily Lackadawa says it 0:09:54.600 --> 0:09:57.000 will take NASA a couple of months to determine exactly 0:09:57.040 --> 0:10:00.240 how much the asteroids path was changed. Global He was 0:10:00.240 --> 0:10:02.760 twenty four hours a day on air and on Bloomberg 0:10:02.840 --> 0:10:05.560 quick Take, powered by more than twenties seven hundre. Journalist 0:10:05.600 --> 0:10:08.120 and analysts more than a twenty countries. Michael Barr, This 0:10:08.320 --> 0:10:15.360 is Bloomberg Nick. Thanks Michael. Just about five ten on 0:10:15.400 --> 0:10:17.680 Wall Street, time for the Bloomberg Sports Update with John 0:10:17.720 --> 0:10:20.280 Shower Banks Nathan. The Giants we're looking for their first 0:10:20.320 --> 0:10:22.559 three and stars in two thousand nine and when s 0:10:22.800 --> 0:10:25.199 Kwan Barkley score in the thirty six yard run on 0:10:25.240 --> 0:10:27.440 the third cour of the Giants at a seven point lead, 0:10:27.840 --> 0:10:30.720 but Dallas score the next seventeen and the Cowboys won 0:10:31.200 --> 0:10:33.720 three to sixteen, both teams with two and one. Big 0:10:33.840 --> 0:10:36.800 Blue done in by a familiar problem, the inability to 0:10:36.880 --> 0:10:40.440 protect the quarterback. Daniel Jones was sacked, hit, or at 0:10:40.520 --> 0:10:44.000 least harassed over twenty times. Jones was coach is Brian 0:10:44.080 --> 0:10:45.839 day Ball. He did a good job, so he made 0:10:45.840 --> 0:10:47.600 a lot of loose plays. I only had what about 0:10:47.600 --> 0:10:49.839 eight yards Russian. I thought he did a good job 0:10:49.960 --> 0:10:51.760 keeping his eyes down feel when he could get out. 0:10:51.840 --> 0:10:53.160 You know, he made a couple of plays there at 0:10:53.200 --> 0:10:55.360 the end. You know that we couldn't quite convert on 0:10:55.400 --> 0:10:58.480 and hit some drop passes. Um you know the last 0:10:58.520 --> 0:11:01.079 play that that Digs picked off show spell down and 0:11:01.360 --> 0:11:03.439 it was a time and throw that was the interception 0:11:03.480 --> 0:11:05.079 that sealed the win for the Cowboys. It was the 0:11:05.120 --> 0:11:07.559 only turnover of the night, and on that place, Sterling 0:11:07.640 --> 0:11:10.640 Shepard suffered a serious knee knee injury appears to be 0:11:10.720 --> 0:11:13.319 season ending. The white out is the longest tenure Giant. 0:11:13.360 --> 0:11:15.960 He has made it back from an achilles injury suffered 0:11:16.040 --> 0:11:17.960 last year. The NFL and has no more Pro Bowl. 0:11:17.960 --> 0:11:21.679 They'll play a flag football game, have a skills competition instead. 0:11:21.960 --> 0:11:24.199 Ain't Toronto. The champagne that was on ice and the 0:11:24.240 --> 0:11:26.440 Yankee Lapper Room will have to wait to be pop Cophen. 0:11:26.440 --> 0:11:28.199 The Yanks did not clinch the a l East. He 0:11:28.240 --> 0:11:30.320 had a too nothing lead but lost in a let 0:11:30.360 --> 0:11:32.080 of ins in the Blue Jays three to two ends 0:11:32.120 --> 0:11:34.520 the Yanks seven game winning drink. It's the sixth rate 0:11:34.559 --> 0:11:37.439 game where Aaron Judge has noted a home run. His 0:11:37.679 --> 0:11:39.920 mother and Roger Marris June will be back again tonight. 0:11:40.000 --> 0:11:42.040 See if Judge hits home run number sixty one to 0:11:42.160 --> 0:11:44.959 time Harris. Atlanta want eight nothing at Washington, so with 0:11:45.080 --> 0:11:47.320 eight games ago, the Braves are one game behind the Mets, 0:11:47.320 --> 0:11:50.160 who hosts Miami tonight. They'll go to Atlanta this weekend. 0:11:50.200 --> 0:11:52.079 That will obviously go a long way towards deciding who 0:11:52.080 --> 0:11:55.960 wins the division. Johns Gashawer Bloomberg Sports, Nathan all Right, John, 0:11:56.040 --> 0:11:59.200 thank you. Futures are moving higher after yesterday's big drop. 0:11:59.280 --> 0:12:01.800 We check in neck so Jeff you of b n 0:12:02.000 --> 0:12:08.440 y Melon. This is Bloomberg Bloomberg eleven three oh weather 0:12:08.559 --> 0:12:11.880 mostly sunny, low seventies today, mid fifties tonight, little cooler 0:12:11.880 --> 0:12:15.240 in the sunshine tomorrow with the high near seventy, upper sixties. 0:12:15.320 --> 0:12:22.680 Mostly sunny on Thursday. Right now sixty one in Central Park. Markets, 0:12:22.800 --> 0:12:25.880 headlines and breaking news twenty four hours a day at 0:12:25.920 --> 0:12:29.840 Bloomberg dot Com of Bloomberg Business Outland at Bloomberg Quick Take, 0:12:30.080 --> 0:12:39.320 this is a Bloomberg business lash and I'm Karen Moscow. 0:12:39.400 --> 0:12:41.920 And global markets are made on edges. Investors race for 0:12:42.040 --> 0:12:45.920 a heightened risk of global recession even as dip buyers emerge. 0:12:46.280 --> 0:12:49.040 Stocks are mixed as Goldman, Sachs and black Rocks sour 0:12:49.120 --> 0:12:51.800 inequities for the short term, and city groups said bearish 0:12:51.840 --> 0:12:55.640 position and continues to rise. Europe stock six hundred rebounding 0:12:55.679 --> 0:12:58.240 with US stock index futures, and we checked the markets 0:12:58.280 --> 0:13:01.280 every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day on Bloomberg Guess 0:13:01.320 --> 0:13:04.000 and p futures, they're higher up thirty two points, DAL 0:13:04.120 --> 0:13:06.640 futures up one hundred ninety one and nastag future is 0:13:06.679 --> 0:13:08.880 up a hundred twenty three. That's up one point one 0:13:09.000 --> 0:13:11.600 per cent, and the decks in Germany's up to tenths 0:13:11.640 --> 0:13:14.439 of a percent. Ten year treasury of twenty thirty seconds, 0:13:14.520 --> 0:13:16.480 he'll three point eight four percent, the yell done the 0:13:16.520 --> 0:13:19.520 two year four point to seven percent. Nine x Screwede 0:13:19.520 --> 0:13:21.560 oil is up one point one percent of eighty seven 0:13:21.640 --> 0:13:24.040 cents at seventy seven dollars, fifty eight cents of barrel 0:13:24.320 --> 0:13:27.040 comes gold up half percent or eight dollar sixty cents 0:13:27.320 --> 0:13:30.360 at sixteen forty two an ounce. The euro point nine 0:13:30.480 --> 0:13:32.800 six two three against the dollar, British pound one point 0:13:32.840 --> 0:13:35.280 oh seven eight six and a yen one forty four 0:13:35.400 --> 0:13:37.600 point four three. I'm looking at it. Bitcoin it's up 0:13:37.600 --> 0:13:40.960 more than five percent at twenty thousand, one hundred thirty 0:13:41.040 --> 0:13:43.920 dollars and as of Bloomberg Business Flash now here's Michael 0:13:43.960 --> 0:13:46.480 Barr with more on what's going on around the world. Michael, 0:13:46.480 --> 0:13:49.520 good morning, Good morning, Karen. Hurricane and makes landfall in 0:13:49.640 --> 0:13:52.679 Cuba on routes of Florida's West coast in as a 0:13:52.760 --> 0:13:55.680 Category three storm and is forecast grow into a Cat 0:13:55.800 --> 0:13:59.400 four with top winds of one hundred forty miles an hour. 0:14:00.040 --> 0:14:02.640 In Japan, world leaders and members of the public are 0:14:02.679 --> 0:14:05.559 paying tribute to former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who was 0:14:05.600 --> 0:14:09.720 assassinated in July, but thousands are protesting the large scale 0:14:09.760 --> 0:14:14.000 state funeral, saying taxpayer money should instead be used to 0:14:14.040 --> 0:14:18.680 address widening economic disparities they say were caused by Abe's policies. 0:14:19.280 --> 0:14:22.320 In Monday Night Football, the Giants lost with Cowboys twenty 0:14:22.400 --> 0:14:25.840 three sixteen. In baseball, the Yankees lost to the Blue 0:14:25.920 --> 0:14:28.720 Jay's three too and ten innings. Aaron Jodd still stuck 0:14:28.760 --> 0:14:32.160 at sixty home runs as he chases Roger Merris sixty 0:14:32.200 --> 0:14:34.960 one a l record. The Orioles beat the Red Sox 0:14:35.040 --> 0:14:38.480 fourteen eight. The Nationals lost. Global news twenty four hours 0:14:38.520 --> 0:14:41.600 a day on air and on Bloomberg Quick Take, powered 0:14:41.600 --> 0:14:44.280 by more than dred journalists analysts more than a hundred 0:14:44.280 --> 0:14:47.840 twenty countries. I'm Michael Barn, this is Bloomberg. Nathan all right, Michael, 0:14:47.880 --> 0:14:49.760 thank you for coming up to five twenty on Wall 0:14:49.800 --> 0:14:53.000 Street Live from the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studios. This is 0:14:53.200 --> 0:14:56.280 Bloomberg Daybreak and we're joined now by Jeffrey You, senior 0:14:56.320 --> 0:14:58.400 strategist at b n y Melon. Do you see a 0:14:58.480 --> 0:15:01.200 bit of dip buying in this mark it after yesterday's 0:15:01.360 --> 0:15:05.360 continued route, jeff would you buy this? Well? At this point, 0:15:05.720 --> 0:15:09.240 I think it's some better to um air on the 0:15:09.320 --> 0:15:12.440 side of caution, right So a buying a dip sentiment 0:15:12.560 --> 0:15:15.000 right now is I'm just reflection that we've had three 0:15:15.120 --> 0:15:18.280 trading days of I wouldn't call cartnerge, but no quite 0:15:18.280 --> 0:15:21.360 a bit chaotic ever since the Waker, the stead decision, 0:15:21.760 --> 0:15:24.600 so intervention from the Bank of Japan, and we've had 0:15:24.680 --> 0:15:28.760 the supposing mini budget, you know from the UK government, 0:15:29.080 --> 0:15:30.720 and the lack of a high guest today from the 0:15:30.800 --> 0:15:32.960 v o E. So Marcus and we're sawing around. You're 0:15:33.000 --> 0:15:35.520 right at But ultimately, if you think that the FED 0:15:35.880 --> 0:15:38.000 is going to go very high in sraterminal rates and 0:15:38.080 --> 0:15:40.720 say there, then your bias should be towards the downside 0:15:40.760 --> 0:15:42.880 and risk aside. Now, what's your car and what the 0:15:42.920 --> 0:15:44.560 FED is going to do in the next few months. 0:15:45.240 --> 0:15:47.200 One of the FED few in the next few months 0:15:47.240 --> 0:15:50.040 of the first time, we actually think the market pricing 0:15:50.080 --> 0:15:52.640 for the FED heading towards five percent terminal and that's 0:15:52.640 --> 0:15:54.800 where we think the FED will head to. That is 0:15:54.960 --> 0:15:58.000 just about adequate and the next phases, of course states independency. 0:15:58.600 --> 0:16:01.840 If the FED um start to observe that data is decelerating, 0:16:01.920 --> 0:16:03.720 you know, let's take a cue from durable goods today 0:16:03.760 --> 0:16:06.680 and for example, then you know, maybe markets will start 0:16:06.760 --> 0:16:10.480 to price in a slowdown or an easy or something 0:16:10.560 --> 0:16:12.680 like that. We would still push back against those things. 0:16:12.760 --> 0:16:15.200 You know, we're going to stay eternal for some time. Um, 0:16:15.320 --> 0:16:17.640 but maybe the narrative can start to change from there 0:16:17.680 --> 0:16:21.000 into how high the Federal will high too? How long 0:16:21.080 --> 0:16:23.480 will the FED stay at very high levels? So would 0:16:23.480 --> 0:16:25.600 you push back against the narrative that we're hearing now 0:16:25.680 --> 0:16:28.400 from Goldman Saxon, black Rock. Both of those banks have 0:16:29.120 --> 0:16:32.720 soured on equities, both saying that the risk of a 0:16:32.800 --> 0:16:36.280 global recession hasn't been fully priced into this market. UM, 0:16:36.320 --> 0:16:38.600 I would separate those two things, you know, because of 0:16:38.680 --> 0:16:41.200 the US is so separate, you know, from how the 0:16:41.280 --> 0:16:43.480 rest of the world is behaving right now. So if 0:16:43.520 --> 0:16:45.680 we have a global recession, that's the key word that 0:16:46.000 --> 0:16:48.040 how much would impact the US as a global non 0:16:48.160 --> 0:16:50.760 US recession directly and push the US into a recession. 0:16:50.880 --> 0:16:52.520 We want to go that far yet, Having said that, 0:16:52.840 --> 0:16:55.800 equity is relative to inflation, may be relative to discount 0:16:55.880 --> 0:16:58.920 rate from right now still, um, I wouldn't say expensive, 0:16:58.960 --> 0:17:01.720 but certainly not cheap yet. So further downward adjustment is 0:17:02.560 --> 0:17:06.000 definitely possible. But I think the narrative of peak rates, um, 0:17:06.040 --> 0:17:08.400 now that is a bit more justifiable. It's a question 0:17:08.480 --> 0:17:10.200 of how long are we going to stay at peak rates? 0:17:10.240 --> 0:17:11.840 And I think that's going to be longer. Level markets 0:17:11.840 --> 0:17:14.760 are anticipation right now, where are you expecting the market 0:17:14.840 --> 0:17:17.520 to bottom out at? You have a level on target 0:17:17.600 --> 0:17:20.920 for the sp no major targets, you know, at this 0:17:21.119 --> 0:17:23.600 some point, right, so we always know go convergence and 0:17:23.720 --> 0:17:26.119 there's always dynamic and of inflation you know, comes off 0:17:26.160 --> 0:17:28.960 faster than expected, then we would actually start to say, okay, 0:17:29.000 --> 0:17:31.600 then maybe at around these levels the mess and people 0:17:31.720 --> 0:17:33.879 be adequately by the price. Right, So it's not just 0:17:34.280 --> 0:17:37.040 a price versus earning story. It's a relative to the 0:17:37.119 --> 0:17:39.639 wider macro fundamentals. The one thing we all say is, 0:17:39.640 --> 0:17:42.080 you know, for international investors, they're looking at the dollar 0:17:42.160 --> 0:17:43.760 right now and they're asking when is the dollar going 0:17:43.840 --> 0:17:47.119 to peek? And that will start to impact as allocation 0:17:47.240 --> 0:17:49.400 into the US. Are more hedges going to take into 0:17:49.440 --> 0:17:51.440 place to people want to take the exerty risk but 0:17:51.600 --> 0:17:54.080 not the dollar risk. This will start to come up 0:17:54.080 --> 0:17:57.680 the radar very very soon international investors. Of course, there's 0:17:57.680 --> 0:17:59.959 a lot of attention on the pound right now, inspect 0:18:00.000 --> 0:18:03.320 reculation about whether sterling is going to reach parody against 0:18:03.400 --> 0:18:07.359 the dollar. Do you think that's a possibility. Absolutely, it's 0:18:07.359 --> 0:18:09.920 a pulp It's absolutely a possibility. You know. I've also 0:18:09.960 --> 0:18:12.440 my views on this sun because right now, in one word, 0:18:12.480 --> 0:18:14.560 we need transparency. We need transparency you know, from the 0:18:14.600 --> 0:18:16.800 Treasury on how this is going to be costed. And 0:18:16.960 --> 0:18:20.439 yesterday the statement was released by I believe the end 0:18:20.440 --> 0:18:22.439 of November we are going to see a full costing 0:18:22.480 --> 0:18:24.760 you know of the tax cuts. But that's going to 0:18:24.880 --> 0:18:27.000 be after the next Bank of England decision as well. 0:18:27.080 --> 0:18:29.080 So even if you don't believe that Bank of England 0:18:29.119 --> 0:18:31.640 are going to do an inter meeting, hike that even still, 0:18:31.760 --> 0:18:33.800 you know, the November meeting, the bobs heading into that 0:18:34.320 --> 0:18:37.080 without full information, right so the bias is going to 0:18:37.160 --> 0:18:40.399 be towards in their caution um and selling of guilt 0:18:41.040 --> 0:18:44.000 higher inflation expectations. So we just need to hear more 0:18:44.040 --> 0:18:45.600 from the government on how all of this is going 0:18:45.640 --> 0:18:47.359 to work out. Until then, I don't think people are 0:18:47.359 --> 0:18:49.159 going to be dashing back into the pound. Are you 0:18:49.240 --> 0:18:52.280 looking for even more of a jumbo interest rate hike 0:18:52.359 --> 0:18:54.320 from the Bank of England than the jumbo hikes that 0:18:54.359 --> 0:18:57.440 they've already delivered? Yes, yes, right, because you know with 0:18:57.840 --> 0:19:01.480 the status quo, the amount of jump tho stimulus that 0:19:01.800 --> 0:19:03.720 is being delivered, then you are going to need a 0:19:03.800 --> 0:19:07.480 jumbo hike, you know, to offset back all right's restrain conditions. 0:19:07.640 --> 0:19:10.160 So market is pricing into and the basis points by November. 0:19:10.480 --> 0:19:12.240 I think that is adequately at this point that they 0:19:12.400 --> 0:19:15.040 probably definitely needs to go into the triple digits at least, 0:19:15.280 --> 0:19:17.960 if not more um and if not then certainly a 0:19:18.000 --> 0:19:20.280 sterling riskers into the downside. Of course, if there's some 0:19:20.359 --> 0:19:22.480 adjustments in the fiscal plan then we can discuss, but 0:19:22.600 --> 0:19:25.000 as they stand, we need a jumbo heights offset a 0:19:25.080 --> 0:19:28.320 jumbo stimulus. So good to get your thoughts this morning, Jeff, 0:19:28.400 --> 0:19:30.800 really appreciate you having to come on with us. Jeffrey, you, 0:19:31.000 --> 0:19:34.080 senior strategist at B and Y, melon with us this 0:19:34.280 --> 0:19:38.200 morning as we watch futures continue to move higher after 0:19:38.440 --> 0:19:42.200 yesterday's drop. SMP futures are up twenty nine points down 0:19:42.280 --> 0:19:45.159 futures have a hundred seventy one and NASTAC futures are 0:19:45.240 --> 0:19:48.280 higher by a hundred nine points. The tenure treasury getting 0:19:48.280 --> 0:19:51.040 a bit up twenty thirty seconds, yield three point eight 0:19:51.280 --> 0:19:53.919 three percent, and the yield on the two year right 0:19:53.960 --> 0:19:57.520 now two or four point to seven percent. Checking the 0:19:57.560 --> 0:20:01.399 British pound one point zero seven nine one against the dollar. 0:20:01.560 --> 0:20:08.240 You're listening to Bloomberg day Break Bloomberg eleven three. Or 0:20:08.280 --> 0:20:10.639 whether sunshine low seventies today will get down to the 0:20:10.640 --> 0:20:13.159 mid fifties tonight a little bit Cooler's still sunny tomorrow 0:20:13.200 --> 0:20:17.239 with a high near seventy, upper sixties by Thursday. Right 0:20:17.280 --> 0:20:23.879 now sixty one in Central Park, broadcasting live from the 0:20:23.960 --> 0:20:27.920 Bloomberg Interacted Broker Studio in New York. Bloomberg E living 0:20:28.000 --> 0:20:32.359 freed to Washington, d C. Bloomberg nine to Boston, Bloomberg 0:20:32.440 --> 0:20:35.600 one O six one to San Francisco, Bloomberg nine sixty 0:20:35.720 --> 0:20:38.320 to the country, Sirius XM tod A one nine team, 0:20:38.440 --> 0:20:41.920 and around the globe, the Bloomberg Business and Bloomberg Radio 0:20:42.080 --> 0:20:51.000 dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. It's five thirty on 0:20:51.080 --> 0:20:54.080 Wall Street. Good morning. I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. 0:20:54.200 --> 0:20:56.440 We're just about four hours away from the open of 0:20:56.520 --> 0:20:58.200