WEBVTT - Tesla's Deliveries Expectations and Rubrik's IPO Plans 0:00:01.520 --> 0:00:02.240 From Mahard. 0:00:02.400 --> 0:00:06.840 We're Innovation, Money and Power Collie in Silicon Valley, NBN. 0:00:07.160 --> 0:00:11.200 This is Bloomberg Technology with Caroline Hyde and Ed Ludlow. 0:00:25.160 --> 0:00:27.360 I'm Caroline heid On Bloomberg's weldad quarters in New York, 0:00:27.360 --> 0:00:29.080 and I'm also in New York Ed Louvelow here in 0:00:29.160 --> 0:00:30.760 This is Bloomberg Technology. 0:00:30.840 --> 0:00:31.280 Coming up. 0:00:31.320 --> 0:00:33.360 Look, we'll take a look at what we can expect 0:00:33.400 --> 0:00:36.680 from Tesla's deliveries report does as an analysis slashing estimates 0:00:36.960 --> 0:00:38.440 as the quarter comes to a close. 0:00:38.600 --> 0:00:39.920 Details ahead plus. 0:00:39.640 --> 0:00:43.080 More momentum in the IPO market is Microsoft Banks, Rubric 0:00:43.159 --> 0:00:45.600 says it's ready to file for its initial public offering, 0:00:45.640 --> 0:00:47.320 walking you the latest, and. 0:00:47.120 --> 0:00:49.840 We will sit down with the production company Shy Kids 0:00:50.159 --> 0:00:53.199 as they produce an entire short film using open ayes 0:00:53.360 --> 0:00:56.960 Sora have that so much more coming up throughout the hour. 0:00:57.040 --> 0:00:58.800 First, let's check in on these markets. 0:00:58.800 --> 0:01:01.680 And while after a stellar first quarter ahead, we're just 0:01:01.760 --> 0:01:04.039 pairing back a little bit across the benchmarks and that'sacks 0:01:04.040 --> 0:01:06.839 still clinging onto the gains. But look only by one 0:01:06.920 --> 0:01:09.240 point at the moment. What is driving some of them 0:01:09.240 --> 0:01:10.920 perhaps sell off in the equities on the day at 0:01:10.959 --> 0:01:13.160 least has been the movement in the bond market tenure 0:01:13.240 --> 0:01:15.840 yields spikinging at eleven basis points in the tenure. But 0:01:15.840 --> 0:01:19.080 we're up across the curve four point three one is 0:01:19.120 --> 0:01:22.280 where we're currently trading. Why factory orders coming in a 0:01:22.319 --> 0:01:24.880 surprise gain and really showing that this is a strong 0:01:25.080 --> 0:01:27.640 US economy and therefore the Fed really doesn't have to 0:01:27.640 --> 0:01:30.520 be cunning rates anytime soon. Bitcoin current under pressure off 0:01:30.520 --> 0:01:33.559 by two point eight percent, still relatively higher at sixty 0:01:33.600 --> 0:01:36.320 eighty eight hundred and twenty seven, but put. 0:01:36.160 --> 0:01:37.360 It into concext stead. 0:01:37.800 --> 0:01:40.720 Look at where we have come for this year alone 0:01:40.720 --> 0:01:42.520 on the S and P five hundred, despite those moves 0:01:42.520 --> 0:01:43.640 in bonn yields throughout the year. 0:01:43.800 --> 0:01:46.640 Yeah, it's been a fast start to twenty twenty four. 0:01:46.760 --> 0:01:49.280 The first quarter, the first back to back quarterly gained 0:01:49.320 --> 0:01:51.760 since mid of last year Dune quarter of last year. 0:01:52.160 --> 0:01:54.920 But I'm trying to find what are the commonalities between 0:01:54.960 --> 0:01:56.600 all of these gains at the inducey's level, and I 0:01:56.680 --> 0:01:59.760 think the answers in Vidia basically along with some other 0:02:00.040 --> 0:02:01.640 AI names that we're caught up in a kind of 0:02:01.680 --> 0:02:05.160 infrastructure play, and now the attention's focusing well, if rates 0:02:05.160 --> 0:02:08.239 are going to come down. Which rate sensitive sectors do 0:02:08.240 --> 0:02:09.880 you want to be in and does that mean moving 0:02:09.880 --> 0:02:12.120 away from tech? Which is sad for us, it might 0:02:12.120 --> 0:02:13.280 be savvy for others. 0:02:13.200 --> 0:02:15.400 And to be honest, savvy on the date and on 0:02:15.560 --> 0:02:18.800 the year to date, we're still seeing chips sector absolutely 0:02:18.800 --> 0:02:20.680 flying one and a quarter percent higher on the day. 0:02:20.800 --> 0:02:22.960 We've got analysts out there upgrading the stocks of the 0:02:23.040 --> 0:02:26.160 likes of Micron. Isn't just, of course a star performer 0:02:26.160 --> 0:02:27.840 that has always been in video, but this has started 0:02:27.880 --> 0:02:30.079 to spread and where else has been really the beneficiaries. 0:02:30.080 --> 0:02:31.720 And later in the program we also have to talk 0:02:31.760 --> 0:02:33.960 about our risk assert of choice, which is bitcoin, because 0:02:33.960 --> 0:02:35.800 there is something that is due to happen on the calendar, 0:02:35.840 --> 0:02:38.280 the harving. I think it's important to understand that. But 0:02:38.360 --> 0:02:41.600 broadly speaking, every week I have a sense of deja 0:02:41.720 --> 0:02:44.160 vu because we always say, oh, will the Fed cut 0:02:44.200 --> 0:02:45.920 rates or when will they cut rates? And in which 0:02:45.919 --> 0:02:47.920 increment and then we go from there and see how 0:02:47.960 --> 0:02:50.760 it impacts the technology sector. We used to say higher 0:02:50.800 --> 0:02:52.720 rates discount the present value of future cash flows. By 0:02:52.720 --> 0:02:55.799 I'm reading this note from City Strategies saying, actually we're 0:02:55.840 --> 0:02:58.359 thinking about where we need to move outside of technology, 0:02:59.080 --> 0:03:01.120 what role bitcoin play and that as well have no idea. 0:03:01.360 --> 0:03:02.200 Yes, spread the love. 0:03:02.280 --> 0:03:05.200 Meanwhile, Jupiter of fund Over in Asia is still saying, look, 0:03:05.240 --> 0:03:07.280 get in on the AI play, go in on those 0:03:07.280 --> 0:03:09.880 sorts of names that you still have seen so outperformed. 0:03:09.919 --> 0:03:12.640 So it feels as though the artificial intelligence run up 0:03:12.720 --> 0:03:14.960 still has some space to run. But there is one 0:03:15.040 --> 0:03:18.079 stock ed that has really fallen of fout this year 0:03:18.200 --> 0:03:20.960 so far. It was a magnificent seven player and it's 0:03:20.960 --> 0:03:22.360 anything but magnificent at the moment. 0:03:22.440 --> 0:03:24.600 And just before we came on air, the declines in 0:03:24.680 --> 0:03:28.240 the moment really accelerated. Tesla's down two point five percent. 0:03:28.320 --> 0:03:32.960 We are bracing for first quarter deliveries where the expectation 0:03:33.480 --> 0:03:36.200 is that they will deliver around four hundred and fifty 0:03:36.240 --> 0:03:39.480 seven thousand sequentially quarter and quarter. That would been a 0:03:39.520 --> 0:03:42.480 six percent decline. The big one to watch is like, 0:03:42.520 --> 0:03:45.200 look at how wide the estimates are at the lower end. 0:03:45.560 --> 0:03:47.400 This could be the first time in years that Tesla's 0:03:47.400 --> 0:03:49.320 seen a drop year on year in deliveries growth. And 0:03:49.360 --> 0:03:52.320 we know all about the factors higher rates, the consumer's 0:03:52.400 --> 0:03:55.240 not interested any more. Domestic competition in China, there is 0:03:55.280 --> 0:03:58.280 a lot for us to discuss and discuss it. Corey 0:03:58.320 --> 0:04:02.200 Cantal and list A Bloomberg NIF covering vehicle electrification joins 0:04:02.240 --> 0:04:05.160 us here in New York. I mean, this is an 0:04:05.160 --> 0:04:07.960 important quarter, but the first quarter of twenty twenty four 0:04:08.040 --> 0:04:10.800 kind of summed up the EV story. Are you in 0:04:10.840 --> 0:04:12.480 the concerned about Tesla camp? 0:04:12.720 --> 0:04:15.600 I think I'm in the way and see how Tesla does. 0:04:15.760 --> 0:04:18.440 And if you look at the market globally, it's getting 0:04:18.480 --> 0:04:20.560 more competitive. The number of the really watches that four 0:04:20.640 --> 0:04:23.719 hundred and twenty three thousand units. I could see Tesla 0:04:23.920 --> 0:04:26.599 being pretty flat. We've seen in the US, for example, month. 0:04:26.520 --> 0:04:27.920 That's what they did in the first quarter of twenty 0:04:27.960 --> 0:04:28.560 twenty three. Three. 0:04:28.680 --> 0:04:31.719 Right, you're on year being flat even you've seen some 0:04:31.839 --> 0:04:34.360 estimates of a decline of about three percentage points as 0:04:34.360 --> 0:04:36.640 a possibility down to about four hundred and ten thousand. 0:04:36.960 --> 0:04:39.920 Deutsche Bank had Tesla four hundred and fourteen thousand deliveries, 0:04:40.920 --> 0:04:42.960 I would bet more on probably the I'd say Barish 0:04:43.000 --> 0:04:45.200 delivery side, just because of the number of issues they've had. 0:04:45.400 --> 0:04:47.599 You look at not only China and competition there, but 0:04:47.640 --> 0:04:50.360 in Europe. Tesla's a giga factory in Berlin, so I'll 0:04:50.400 --> 0:04:53.839 slowed down due to some outside issues that I must 0:04:53.839 --> 0:04:56.359 flew over there to help deal with afterwards. So you 0:04:56.360 --> 0:04:58.400 look at China, a lot of competition here in the 0:04:58.520 --> 0:05:02.760 US MILEL three refrac Europe issues, so nowhere is going 0:05:02.800 --> 0:05:05.680 particularly well. Not being said, Tesla is still likely to 0:05:05.720 --> 0:05:08.240 outpace BID in terms of its fully electric vehicle sales 0:05:08.320 --> 0:05:10.880 this quarter. Given you know, even if Tesla had about 0:05:10.880 --> 0:05:11.880 fur hundred thousand minutes. 0:05:12.640 --> 0:05:16.479 Let's go into the context here. If we do see 0:05:16.520 --> 0:05:19.479 an actual year on year decline, how unheard of is 0:05:19.520 --> 0:05:20.200 that for Tesla. 0:05:20.320 --> 0:05:22.320 The last time that happened to Tesla was in twenty 0:05:22.400 --> 0:05:24.560 twenty during the pandemic, and then I went back in 0:05:24.600 --> 0:05:26.120 the data and before that you have to go back 0:05:26.160 --> 0:05:29.240 to twenty fourteen to see a slight decline year on year. 0:05:29.839 --> 0:05:32.120 In general, it's been flat or Tesla has seen a 0:05:32.120 --> 0:05:34.119 lot of growth on the year on year basis. Elon 0:05:34.200 --> 0:05:36.280 Musk has said, we're in between two waves, and so 0:05:36.320 --> 0:05:38.640 the question is, you know what happens this quarter, and 0:05:38.640 --> 0:05:41.559 then what does Tesla do They're corrected moving forward, because 0:05:41.560 --> 0:05:43.920 again they haven't given a kind of guidance of delivery 0:05:43.920 --> 0:05:46.479 for the full year, which you typically see auto makers do, 0:05:47.160 --> 0:05:49.320 and you want to see that reassurance if you're looking 0:05:49.320 --> 0:05:51.680 for the EV sector to grow. Tesla was about forty 0:05:51.720 --> 0:05:54.159 six percent of US EV sales, which was actually the 0:05:54.200 --> 0:05:57.640 lowest in twenty twenty three on basis, so they're becoming 0:05:57.720 --> 0:05:59.960 less important to the health of the overall US EV market, 0:06:00.040 --> 0:06:01.839 but still important to the global leaving market. 0:06:02.000 --> 0:06:06.000 Okay, last Thursday, in the Bay Area, in an undisclosed location, 0:06:06.120 --> 0:06:08.160 I went and picked up a Model Y. I did 0:06:08.160 --> 0:06:10.799 it at least one. At least one because I needed 0:06:10.800 --> 0:06:14.880 a new car, but also it was astonishing the federal 0:06:15.400 --> 0:06:18.960 tax credit in the least context, but also Tesla's own incentives. 0:06:19.040 --> 0:06:20.960 They always do this at the end of a quarter, 0:06:21.320 --> 0:06:23.640 and they warned us that April first prices would go 0:06:23.720 --> 0:06:25.640 back up. They did. I woke up this morning and 0:06:25.720 --> 0:06:29.440 checked the website. But you talked about between two waves. 0:06:30.080 --> 0:06:32.359 I debated, as you know, because we discussed it for 0:06:32.400 --> 0:06:34.800 a really long time. Do I need what model? Why 0:06:34.839 --> 0:06:36.320 does the Model Y work for me? I think on 0:06:36.360 --> 0:06:39.040 balance it did for many consumers out there. This is 0:06:39.080 --> 0:06:42.000 really complicated. They look at the vehicle's test or offers 0:06:42.040 --> 0:06:44.239 and say, I don't know that I want a Model 0:06:44.279 --> 0:06:47.360 three or Model Y. I can't afford an SNX and cybertruck. 0:06:47.400 --> 0:06:48.440 Don't even get me started. 0:06:48.480 --> 0:06:50.960 Well, there's only so many cyber trugs being in buildgip. Yeah, 0:06:51.040 --> 0:06:52.719 you're got to go down the pre order list. I 0:06:52.720 --> 0:06:54.640 think the other issue is you look at the Model 0:06:54.760 --> 0:06:56.880 Y and the Model three. They're really close in price now, 0:06:57.000 --> 0:06:59.640 they are, so if you are looking at a three, 0:06:59.680 --> 0:07:01.360 why just spend a little bit more for the Why 0:07:01.400 --> 0:07:03.599 for more like room and more space. With the next 0:07:03.640 --> 0:07:07.240 generation Tesla vehicle announced for production sometime next year, you 0:07:07.279 --> 0:07:09.480 want to make sure you're not cannibalizing the three, because 0:07:09.520 --> 0:07:11.720 right now, Why is the best value out there, not 0:07:11.760 --> 0:07:13.480 just in the US, one of the best selling vehicles 0:07:13.480 --> 0:07:13.960 in the world. 0:07:14.480 --> 0:07:17.800 But then let's get that broader context of competition you 0:07:17.880 --> 0:07:20.400 mentioned BYD and how they're managing to ramp up in 0:07:20.560 --> 0:07:23.000 end of market share. But over in Europe, you know 0:07:23.040 --> 0:07:26.760 you've got BMW coming out with some really extraordinary electric vehicles. Overall, 0:07:27.400 --> 0:07:29.840 is competition now something really Tesla has to be sitting 0:07:29.880 --> 0:07:30.400 up in a world. 0:07:30.560 --> 0:07:33.240 Yes, I think China it's the most intense China. You've 0:07:33.280 --> 0:07:35.040 got a bunch of different other makers competing in a 0:07:35.080 --> 0:07:37.560 real way and consumers there. I think the ideas even 0:07:37.600 --> 0:07:40.000 said that EV sales should be about fifty percent of 0:07:40.040 --> 0:07:42.800 all car sales in China in the next coming few months. 0:07:43.480 --> 0:07:45.720 Everywhere else, Tesla has a bit more of an advantage 0:07:45.760 --> 0:07:48.080 in terms of time, but everywhere it's wrapping up. I'm 0:07:48.080 --> 0:07:50.680 looking forward to those bmwevs next year. That should be 0:07:50.800 --> 0:07:53.520 the new class making waves. And they're big here in 0:07:53.520 --> 0:07:55.680 the US too. I mean, they were about twenty percent 0:07:55.720 --> 0:07:58.880 of all BMW sales last year in the US were electric, 0:07:59.000 --> 0:08:01.240 So it's not just the Europe not just the China thing. 0:08:01.320 --> 0:08:03.520 Tesla has competition everywhere, and that's a big difference from 0:08:03.520 --> 0:08:04.240 a couple years ago. 0:08:04.520 --> 0:08:08.720 Current cantor giving individual advice to Edel shouldn't been driving. 0:08:08.760 --> 0:08:11.240 But also you can check him out on Bloomberg ne ef. 0:08:11.360 --> 0:08:14.640 He has some great analysis across evs. Meanwhile, coming up, 0:08:14.880 --> 0:08:18.360 chief experience officer at ledger Ian Rodgers joining us tell 0:08:18.400 --> 0:08:21.120 us what we can expect a little bitcoin harming. 0:08:21.880 --> 0:08:24.480 I'm also sticking with the EV sets for a minute. Nikola, 0:08:24.640 --> 0:08:29.000 the maker of battery electric, electric and hydrogen fuel cell trucks, 0:08:29.200 --> 0:08:30.920 is down a percentage point, but it had been up 0:08:31.040 --> 0:08:33.560 as much as sixteen percent in pre market ten percent 0:08:33.880 --> 0:08:38.480 at the open. The current management team is suing disgraced 0:08:38.520 --> 0:08:42.240 founder and CEO former CEO Trevor Milton, who himself was 0:08:42.280 --> 0:08:44.520 trying to get new board members who are his friends 0:08:44.520 --> 0:08:47.160 on the board and has been sentenced to four years 0:08:47.160 --> 0:08:49.360 in prison. I don't know if he's litigating this from prison, 0:08:49.640 --> 0:08:51.319 but this is a wild stock that you want to 0:08:51.360 --> 0:08:53.280 be following, and we're trying to get more details. We'll 0:08:53.320 --> 0:09:01.160 keep an eye on it. This is Bloomberg technology. 0:09:06.360 --> 0:09:09.319 Let's talk crypto bitcoin to be specific, because every is 0:09:09.360 --> 0:09:11.560 so often the formula that governs the rate at which 0:09:11.640 --> 0:09:15.319 new bitcoin tokens are created, but it changes. These events 0:09:15.280 --> 0:09:19.000 they're called halvings, are a planned reduction in the rewards 0:09:19.000 --> 0:09:22.679 that miners receive and happen once every four years or so. Now, 0:09:22.679 --> 0:09:26.040 after the last three halvings, the coin hit records. So 0:09:26.320 --> 0:09:30.480 both skeptics and supporters they're watching this particular move closely 0:09:30.880 --> 0:09:32.640 to see what will come of the event and the 0:09:32.679 --> 0:09:33.200 price point. 0:09:33.200 --> 0:09:34.840 More specifically, let's get to chief. 0:09:34.640 --> 0:09:38.319 Experience officer at Ledger as Ian Rodgers joining us really 0:09:38.360 --> 0:09:40.680 on your take, I mean, your business is all about 0:09:41.040 --> 0:09:45.360 ultimately the consumer side and the buying and securing of crypto. 0:09:45.960 --> 0:09:48.280 When you're thinking of the harving, are you expecting everyone 0:09:48.400 --> 0:09:52.280 is going to be a flurry of anticipation to have more, 0:09:52.360 --> 0:09:54.520 to own more as a supply becomes more limited and 0:09:54.600 --> 0:09:55.679 it does drive up the price. 0:09:56.880 --> 0:09:59.120 Well, I think that the having is a great opportunity 0:09:59.160 --> 0:10:01.840 for people to learn learn more about what bitcoin is 0:10:01.920 --> 0:10:06.480 and how it works. You know, Bitcoin it's designed to 0:10:06.640 --> 0:10:09.200 mimic precious metals in that the more you mine it, 0:10:09.280 --> 0:10:12.680 the more difficult it becomes to mind. And going into 0:10:12.679 --> 0:10:16.080 this having is, we have an unprecedented setup because we 0:10:16.160 --> 0:10:19.240 have hit an all time high on a weekly, monthly 0:10:19.280 --> 0:10:22.559 and quarterly basis. You know, prior to the having, which 0:10:22.640 --> 0:10:25.000 is something that hasn't happened before in the times that's 0:10:25.000 --> 0:10:29.040 happened previously. After you have you know this this weekly, monthly, 0:10:29.120 --> 0:10:31.160 quarterly all time high, you've had an appreciation of three 0:10:31.240 --> 0:10:34.760 hundred percent. So you know, the setup, the setup of 0:10:34.800 --> 0:10:37.400 the having is is interesting because you know, it's it's 0:10:37.440 --> 0:10:41.720 a financial endeavor for the miners and you can learn 0:10:41.760 --> 0:10:44.600 a lot from watching what the miners are doing going 0:10:44.600 --> 0:10:47.400 into the having, and they've been investing so they've obviously 0:10:47.440 --> 0:10:50.920 been betting on betting their businesses on the price of 0:10:51.240 --> 0:10:53.480 bitcoin going up, and it looks like they're about to 0:10:53.480 --> 0:10:54.040 win their bed. 0:10:54.720 --> 0:10:59.199 I like the comparison with literal mining of metals or commodities. 0:10:59.240 --> 0:11:01.240 Called it what you will, and I find those data 0:11:01.240 --> 0:11:03.760 points interesting. When you say machines, I think you mean 0:11:03.800 --> 0:11:07.480 the compute right to run this. And you're also focused 0:11:07.520 --> 0:11:10.240 on the hash rate, which has been accelerating. Why are 0:11:10.240 --> 0:11:12.359 those data points that you're following. 0:11:13.200 --> 0:11:15.920 Well, because you're what you're doing, and if you're looking 0:11:15.960 --> 0:11:17.760 to the minors to see what they think is going 0:11:17.760 --> 0:11:19.960 to happen after the having, than what you're doing is 0:11:19.960 --> 0:11:22.640 you're saying, okay, well, what's the break even point for them? 0:11:22.679 --> 0:11:25.800 So at the current you know, at the at the 0:11:25.840 --> 0:11:29.720 current rate of bitcoins being created, which is about nine 0:11:29.840 --> 0:11:32.439 hundred per day, the break even point for them is 0:11:32.480 --> 0:11:36.160 a thirty two thousand dollars bitcoin. So they've been investing 0:11:36.960 --> 0:11:39.840 all year long, even knowing that after the having, the 0:11:39.840 --> 0:11:41.959 break even point for them will be sixty four thousand 0:11:42.000 --> 0:11:44.640 dollars bitcoins. So even you know, back in January when 0:11:44.640 --> 0:11:47.240 the price of bitcoin was between forty and fifty thousand dollars. 0:11:47.520 --> 0:11:49.920 They were still investing betting that the price of bitcoin 0:11:49.960 --> 0:11:53.120 would surpass that sixty four thousand dollars mark. So now 0:11:53.160 --> 0:11:56.840 bitcoin's you know, hovering around seventy seventy thousand dollars. And 0:11:56.880 --> 0:11:58.480 then what you have is again as I said, you 0:11:58.480 --> 0:12:00.599 had you about nine hundred bitcoins being created on a 0:12:00.679 --> 0:12:02.960 daily basis. After the having that will go down to 0:12:03.040 --> 0:12:06.319 four hundred and fifty bitcoins being created on a daily basis. 0:12:06.360 --> 0:12:08.880 But you have this this new event which is the 0:12:08.880 --> 0:12:12.280 Bitcoin ETFs, which are driving a demand of around twenty 0:12:12.360 --> 0:12:14.439 five hundred bitcoins every day. So you know, there will 0:12:14.440 --> 0:12:17.199 only ever be twenty one million bitcoin nineteen and a 0:12:17.240 --> 0:12:20.320 half million of those are already in existence. All of 0:12:20.360 --> 0:12:24.600 those have come into existence via this mining process. And 0:12:24.640 --> 0:12:27.079 if you just look at the at the supply side, 0:12:27.080 --> 0:12:30.360 we've had we've had you know, kind of a you know, 0:12:30.400 --> 0:12:33.880 we've had this this demand that's been created by the ETFs, 0:12:34.520 --> 0:12:37.000 and then now you're about to have the supply shock 0:12:37.480 --> 0:12:39.760 of the having. So I think, you know, it's it's 0:12:40.120 --> 0:12:42.640 it's very you know, very simple supply and demand. And 0:12:43.320 --> 0:12:45.880 you know, and also now you know, bitcoin's been around 0:12:45.880 --> 0:12:49.960 for fifteen years, so A. It's been hardened, and we've 0:12:49.960 --> 0:12:51.440 had a long time to look at it, and we've 0:12:51.480 --> 0:12:53.960 looked at these cycles many times. So you know, there's 0:12:54.000 --> 0:12:56.720 no no guarantee that the past will predict the future. 0:12:57.200 --> 0:12:59.240 As I said, we've never had this all time high 0:12:59.320 --> 0:13:02.320 in advance of the e t A. I mean, I'm sorry, 0:13:02.360 --> 0:13:04.840 in advance of the having the the ETF is a 0:13:04.880 --> 0:13:06.960 new way to buy bitcoin. So there's a lot here 0:13:07.000 --> 0:13:10.360 that I'm precedented, you know. But but we're definitely looking 0:13:10.360 --> 0:13:11.920 at past cycles to try to predict the. 0:13:11.840 --> 0:13:15.080 Future, and we are asking a lot of your own 0:13:16.080 --> 0:13:19.960 expertise in this domain. And I wonder just how decentralized 0:13:20.480 --> 0:13:24.040 is the mining community at this moment, how much are 0:13:24.040 --> 0:13:26.920 they able to be redeploying yet further and further capital 0:13:26.960 --> 0:13:31.560 into compute into well ultimately, and the economics. 0:13:30.960 --> 0:13:34.480 That you just walked us through, well, it's it's I mean, 0:13:34.520 --> 0:13:39.040 it's it's global. It chases cheap energy, you know, because 0:13:39.080 --> 0:13:41.200 the you know, the cheaper that you can they can 0:13:41.280 --> 0:13:44.120 run the mining operation, you know, the more profitable you 0:13:44.120 --> 0:13:48.080 can become. Also, you know, the compute that that drives mining, 0:13:48.400 --> 0:13:52.800 you know, has has improved tremendously between the last cycle 0:13:52.800 --> 0:13:55.240 and this cycle. So you know, it is a it 0:13:55.280 --> 0:13:57.560 is a it's a it's a global business. But again, 0:13:57.640 --> 0:14:00.960 these are these are these are businesses, right, so you know, 0:14:01.000 --> 0:14:03.320 the question is what will they do after they're having 0:14:03.400 --> 0:14:05.360 you know, how much of the bitcoin that they mind 0:14:05.400 --> 0:14:07.640 will they need to sell and then put into the market. 0:14:07.840 --> 0:14:10.000 Will they be able to keep their machines online because 0:14:10.040 --> 0:14:12.040 it's profitable to do so, or will they need to 0:14:12.120 --> 0:14:15.920 unplug some of their machines because the profitability has gone down. So, 0:14:16.160 --> 0:14:19.600 you know, that's why it's super interesting to continue to 0:14:19.680 --> 0:14:22.000 keep an eye on the mining business and to see 0:14:22.040 --> 0:14:24.400 what investments they're making and what bests they're making. 0:14:24.520 --> 0:14:27.600 We're talking about harving because it's due in April. Look, 0:14:27.680 --> 0:14:30.080 we've had a pretty robust debate in the last week 0:14:30.160 --> 0:14:32.240 in with Jack Mallers, who was on the program. The 0:14:32.320 --> 0:14:35.160 Strike CEO Mike Novagratz came on the show last week 0:14:35.160 --> 0:14:37.520 and made the same argument. They basically in the camp 0:14:37.520 --> 0:14:41.240 of there's only twenty one million bitcoin ever and therefore 0:14:41.280 --> 0:14:44.360 price only go up. Bitcoin go up for that very 0:14:44.360 --> 0:14:47.080 simple reason. But one of the interesting data points that 0:14:47.080 --> 0:14:49.720 I track at least is liquidity in the market. You know, 0:14:49.920 --> 0:14:51.680 I get it on the supply side, but there's a 0:14:51.680 --> 0:14:55.440 lot of trading that goes on. Basically, are you in 0:14:55.480 --> 0:14:57.920 the camp of only twenty one million bitcoin? Ever, so 0:14:57.960 --> 0:14:58.760 it only go up. 0:15:00.080 --> 0:15:03.360 Well, I'm in the camp of we lead digital lives, 0:15:03.400 --> 0:15:05.960 and we will have digital ownership in our digital lives. 0:15:06.040 --> 0:15:08.240 And there is a new invention here. I mean, that's thinking. 0:15:08.240 --> 0:15:10.800 That's what people often kind of overlook. They look at 0:15:10.840 --> 0:15:13.080 only the speculative side. But you know, I've been working 0:15:13.080 --> 0:15:15.640 on the Internet since the early nineties, and I did 0:15:15.640 --> 0:15:17.400 digital music for twenty years and I was a big 0:15:17.440 --> 0:15:19.240 part of the fact that you no longer own your 0:15:19.320 --> 0:15:23.800 music collection, you rent it. So bitcoin has been the 0:15:23.880 --> 0:15:28.280 tip of this sphere of digital ownership. And I think 0:15:28.280 --> 0:15:30.360 that you know that you know we will have digital 0:15:30.360 --> 0:15:33.280 ownership in our digital lives. And yes, because you have 0:15:33.400 --> 0:15:37.320 this this truly scarce digital ownership asset, which is like 0:15:37.360 --> 0:15:41.080 a behaves like a precious metal. I think, look, if 0:15:41.080 --> 0:15:43.320 you own pesos, you want to own dollars, and if 0:15:43.360 --> 0:15:44.480 you own dollars, you want. 0:15:44.280 --> 0:15:44.920 To own bitcoin. 0:15:45.880 --> 0:15:48.640 Legend chief experience officer in Roger's Grades, catch up with you. 0:15:57.080 --> 0:15:58.720 It is time for talking tech and first off, in 0:15:58.760 --> 0:16:01.400 the news. Huawei can he hinued its rung of strong, 0:16:01.520 --> 0:16:04.840 coarsely profit growth, building on the resurgence of its consumer 0:16:04.920 --> 0:16:08.440 business against Apple's iPhone and the rise of its cloud 0:16:08.440 --> 0:16:11.960 division against Sally Barba. The Chinese networking and electronics company 0:16:12.000 --> 0:16:15.120 reported net profit of about two billion US dollars in 0:16:15.160 --> 0:16:18.240 the December quarter. According to Bloombog's calculations, that's up more 0:16:18.240 --> 0:16:21.960 than sixty five percent from a year earlier. Plus open 0:16:22.080 --> 0:16:25.880 Ai plans to open an office in Tokyo in April, 0:16:26.080 --> 0:16:29.359 as the AI pioneer begins to build out its international operations. 0:16:29.520 --> 0:16:31.520 The office will be its first in Asia and the 0:16:31.560 --> 0:16:35.400 third international location after the company opened offices in London 0:16:35.440 --> 0:16:39.120 and Dublin last year. All of that, according to Bloomberg sources, 0:16:39.160 --> 0:16:43.120 and AT and T said personal data from about seventy 0:16:43.200 --> 0:16:46.720 three million current and former customers was leaked onto the 0:16:46.800 --> 0:16:50.760 dark web, which prompted the company to reset seven point 0:16:50.880 --> 0:16:54.560 six million account pass codes. The data, which also included 0:16:54.640 --> 0:16:58.200 sixty five point four million former customers, hit the dark 0:16:58.240 --> 0:17:01.320 web about two weeks ago. But the Elite data also 0:17:01.360 --> 0:17:05.040 includes personal information like social security numbers. It appears to 0:17:05.080 --> 0:17:08.159 be from twenty nineteen that time period or earlier. The 0:17:08.200 --> 0:17:11.159 source of the data is still being investigated, and it's 0:17:11.280 --> 0:17:14.639 not known whether the data came from the company or 0:17:14.640 --> 0:17:16.200 it came from a third party vendor Carra. 0:17:16.520 --> 0:17:18.840 Yeah, we want to dig into this story a lot 0:17:18.840 --> 0:17:21.600 more now. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst John Butler joins us and 0:17:22.000 --> 0:17:25.280 at and T itself rushing to practically be talking to 0:17:25.320 --> 0:17:26.320 customers affected. 0:17:26.440 --> 0:17:30.399 But more broadly, how heard or unheard of? 0:17:30.520 --> 0:17:32.120 Is this sort of amount of a leak of things 0:17:32.160 --> 0:17:34.080 such as your Social Security numbers? 0:17:34.840 --> 0:17:38.600 So that's actually a great question, and the answer is 0:17:39.000 --> 0:17:42.440 security breaches for the carriers are actually more. 0:17:42.240 --> 0:17:43.520 Common than you would think. 0:17:44.359 --> 0:17:49.119 T Mobile sort of leads the pack with several dating 0:17:49.200 --> 0:17:53.280 back to August of twenty twenty one and even earlier, 0:17:53.560 --> 0:17:56.440 but they had one of similar size back in August 0:17:56.520 --> 0:18:01.159 of twenty twenty one. And what's interesting is it really 0:18:01.200 --> 0:18:04.159 didn't impact confidence in the brand at the time. 0:18:04.680 --> 0:18:07.560 So we looked at subscriber churn. 0:18:07.680 --> 0:18:11.679 How many subscribers left the brand after T mobiles breach. 0:18:12.800 --> 0:18:15.960 Did it affect net additions new people coming to the 0:18:16.000 --> 0:18:18.879 brand in the wake of the breach, And the answer 0:18:18.960 --> 0:18:22.440 is it really didn't. It wasn't that impactful. To them, 0:18:22.560 --> 0:18:26.200 and so our call on AT and T is something similar. 0:18:26.240 --> 0:18:29.199 We don't think this is really going to dent the 0:18:29.240 --> 0:18:32.120 brand in a major way in the wake of this incident. 0:18:32.280 --> 0:18:35.800 That's the thesis that you outlined in your Bloomberg Inteligens React. 0:18:35.840 --> 0:18:37.960 There's going to be a lot of AT and T 0:18:38.080 --> 0:18:41.640 customers John the watching this show thinking what is John 0:18:41.640 --> 0:18:47.000 Butler talking about? They got access to my information? How 0:18:47.080 --> 0:18:49.920 quickly was the response from AT and T to get 0:18:49.960 --> 0:18:51.840 this resolved and under wraps. 0:18:53.400 --> 0:18:57.360 So I think once it was out it was they 0:18:57.480 --> 0:19:00.720 made all the right moves right. They were offering subscribers 0:19:01.720 --> 0:19:07.320 reimbursement for any security like LifeLock that they might want 0:19:07.359 --> 0:19:12.000 to add onto their accounts, and there were also they 0:19:12.080 --> 0:19:16.160 reached out to everyone and changed their passcode. So again 0:19:16.240 --> 0:19:20.000 from the basic blocking and tackling standpoint, I think they're 0:19:20.040 --> 0:19:24.840