1 00:00:01,960 --> 00:00:04,880 Speaker 1: In the animal populations around the world. There's a huge 2 00:00:04,920 --> 00:00:08,160 Speaker 1: amount of different flu viruses of sort of all different 3 00:00:08,200 --> 00:00:11,960 Speaker 1: shapes and flavors. It's only a very small percentage of 4 00:00:12,000 --> 00:00:15,360 Speaker 1: those that actually make this leap from beings they are 5 00:00:15,440 --> 00:00:18,200 Speaker 1: duck virus to being a human virus. 6 00:00:18,840 --> 00:00:23,560 Speaker 2: That's doctor Richard Webby. He studies how diseases move from 7 00:00:23,760 --> 00:00:29,320 Speaker 2: animals to humans and then sometimes like coronavirus, from humans 8 00:00:29,400 --> 00:00:30,080 Speaker 2: to humans. 9 00:00:30,760 --> 00:00:35,560 Speaker 1: These viruses typically are host specific, so they've got to change. 10 00:00:35,920 --> 00:00:39,479 Speaker 1: If we're doing specifically now about this Bavian flu. That 11 00:00:39,720 --> 00:00:41,800 Speaker 1: virus is everywhere out there at the moment, you know, 12 00:00:41,840 --> 00:00:45,279 Speaker 1: throughout the Americas, throughout Europe, throughout Asia, so there's a 13 00:00:45,400 --> 00:00:49,120 Speaker 1: lot of exposure of that virus to humans. But right 14 00:00:49,159 --> 00:00:54,320 Speaker 1: now it's not really designed to replicate well in humans. 15 00:00:54,320 --> 00:00:58,080 Speaker 1: It's designed to replicate better and birds. This virus has 16 00:00:58,160 --> 00:01:01,320 Speaker 1: to change for that real threat to occur. 17 00:01:03,080 --> 00:01:06,800 Speaker 2: I'm west Kosova today on the Big Take. How concerns 18 00:01:06,840 --> 00:01:16,400 Speaker 2: should we be about bird flu? The Biden administration has 19 00:01:16,480 --> 00:01:21,480 Speaker 2: officially declared an end to emergency coronavirus measures in the US, 20 00:01:21,640 --> 00:01:24,360 Speaker 2: saying the pandemic is more or less behind us. 21 00:01:24,480 --> 00:01:27,280 Speaker 3: White House is just now saying that the President has 22 00:01:27,319 --> 00:01:30,839 Speaker 3: just signed a bill that will end the national emergency 23 00:01:30,880 --> 00:01:32,600 Speaker 3: declared during the COVID pandemic. 24 00:01:33,360 --> 00:01:36,679 Speaker 2: So that's a relief. But the whole time COVID nineteen 25 00:01:36,840 --> 00:01:40,040 Speaker 2: was racing around the world, scientists who monitor the spread 26 00:01:40,080 --> 00:01:44,119 Speaker 2: of diseases, we're keeping an eye on other viruses, including 27 00:01:44,400 --> 00:01:47,600 Speaker 2: avian flu. People like doctor Webby, and he has more 28 00:01:47,640 --> 00:01:50,640 Speaker 2: to say later in the show about how these viruses 29 00:01:50,760 --> 00:01:54,480 Speaker 2: learn and adapt and whether it's likely or not that 30 00:01:54,600 --> 00:01:57,640 Speaker 2: bird flu may one day begin to spread from person 31 00:01:57,680 --> 00:02:01,800 Speaker 2: to person. First, I want to to Bloomberg reporters Michelle 32 00:02:01,920 --> 00:02:06,400 Speaker 2: Cortes and Susie Ring, who are covering this story. Michelle, 33 00:02:06,480 --> 00:02:09,280 Speaker 2: why would it be so bad if bird flu does 34 00:02:09,360 --> 00:02:10,400 Speaker 2: make that change. 35 00:02:10,840 --> 00:02:14,480 Speaker 3: Scientists and public health officials have been waiting for human 36 00:02:14,480 --> 00:02:18,919 Speaker 3: to human transmission of avian influenza for decades now, and 37 00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:22,720 Speaker 3: it continues to not happen. The fear is that once 38 00:02:22,880 --> 00:02:25,960 Speaker 3: that actually does occur, they won't be able to get 39 00:02:25,960 --> 00:02:28,960 Speaker 3: it under control. The mortality rates are so high with 40 00:02:29,080 --> 00:02:32,120 Speaker 3: avian influenza that the fear is that once it starts 41 00:02:32,200 --> 00:02:37,960 Speaker 3: transmitting easily between people, that there will be mass mortality 42 00:02:38,200 --> 00:02:40,960 Speaker 3: among humans, and that we'll be on the back foot 43 00:02:41,040 --> 00:02:42,760 Speaker 3: and won't be able to get in front of it. 44 00:02:43,400 --> 00:02:46,399 Speaker 3: At this point, with such huge numbers of infections in 45 00:02:46,720 --> 00:02:50,880 Speaker 3: wild and domesticated birds moving into mammals, that's the concern 46 00:02:50,919 --> 00:02:52,480 Speaker 3: that that's what's going to be happening. 47 00:02:52,160 --> 00:02:56,120 Speaker 2: Now, Susie. Is that why even though, as Michelle says, 48 00:02:56,120 --> 00:02:58,480 Speaker 2: scientists have been concerned about this for a long time, 49 00:02:58,520 --> 00:03:01,560 Speaker 2: it's just the scale that there's so much more of 50 00:03:01,600 --> 00:03:04,080 Speaker 2: this flu out there that it increases the chance that 51 00:03:04,120 --> 00:03:05,480 Speaker 2: the flu can get smarter. 52 00:03:06,200 --> 00:03:08,919 Speaker 4: The scale that we've seen in terms of deaths among birds, 53 00:03:08,960 --> 00:03:12,119 Speaker 4: we're seeing millions being cold because this has just become 54 00:03:12,200 --> 00:03:15,640 Speaker 4: a complete epidemic among wild birds and then among poultry. 55 00:03:15,400 --> 00:03:16,679 Speaker 5: Are highly contagious. 56 00:03:16,720 --> 00:03:20,040 Speaker 3: Avian flu is infecting birds all over the globe. 57 00:03:20,080 --> 00:03:22,960 Speaker 1: The world is going through its largest ever recorded outbreak 58 00:03:23,000 --> 00:03:23,680 Speaker 1: of bird flu. 59 00:03:23,840 --> 00:03:26,320 Speaker 4: More than two hundred million birds have died as a 60 00:03:26,360 --> 00:03:29,919 Speaker 4: result of the current avian flu outbreak. And then also 61 00:03:29,960 --> 00:03:32,080 Speaker 4: the concern is it's spreading to mammals as well, so 62 00:03:32,120 --> 00:03:35,880 Speaker 4: we've seen Peruvian seals and bears also catching. This shows 63 00:03:35,920 --> 00:03:39,360 Speaker 4: the virus is mutating, it is jumping between species, which 64 00:03:39,360 --> 00:03:41,560 Speaker 4: then of course raises the question is it going to 65 00:03:41,640 --> 00:03:44,720 Speaker 4: mutate further and then make its way into humans and 66 00:03:44,760 --> 00:03:47,240 Speaker 4: then from there allow for human to human transmition if 67 00:03:47,240 --> 00:03:48,840 Speaker 4: it's mutated in the right way. 68 00:03:49,440 --> 00:03:51,800 Speaker 2: Michelle, what is the risk of avian flu to humans? 69 00:03:51,840 --> 00:03:52,720 Speaker 2: What does it actually do? 70 00:03:53,840 --> 00:03:56,720 Speaker 3: Avian influenza, in the end, is an influenza, and it 71 00:03:56,760 --> 00:03:59,320 Speaker 3: works the same way as the seasonal flu that we're 72 00:03:59,320 --> 00:04:02,840 Speaker 3: all very familiar you're with, causing anything from you a cough, 73 00:04:02,880 --> 00:04:06,960 Speaker 3: a sore throat, runny nose. It can lead to difficulty breathing, 74 00:04:07,040 --> 00:04:10,600 Speaker 3: high fevers, and of course the most feared outcome is 75 00:04:10,760 --> 00:04:14,280 Speaker 3: a pneumonia, and that is what eventually kills people. The 76 00:04:14,360 --> 00:04:18,640 Speaker 3: difference between avian influenza and seasonal flu is that avian 77 00:04:18,680 --> 00:04:23,640 Speaker 3: influenza is incredibly virulent, killing more than half of all 78 00:04:23,680 --> 00:04:26,640 Speaker 3: of the humans that it's infected. Of Course, the rub 79 00:04:26,760 --> 00:04:30,440 Speaker 3: is is that only about a thousand humans have been infected, 80 00:04:30,520 --> 00:04:33,320 Speaker 3: so the numbers are small, and we don't know as 81 00:04:33,360 --> 00:04:36,480 Speaker 3: the mutations happen if that's going to make it more 82 00:04:36,520 --> 00:04:39,680 Speaker 3: deadly or less deadly, as it makes it easier to transmit, 83 00:04:39,920 --> 00:04:42,719 Speaker 3: if and when that happens. The issue is that you know, 84 00:04:42,720 --> 00:04:45,120 Speaker 3: if you look at Spanish flu If you look at 85 00:04:45,200 --> 00:04:49,280 Speaker 3: nineteen eighteen, the case mortality rate was under two percent. 86 00:04:49,640 --> 00:04:53,440 Speaker 3: So the idea that avian influenza is killing half of 87 00:04:53,520 --> 00:04:57,359 Speaker 3: people that it infects or more, that's a terrifying idea 88 00:04:57,520 --> 00:04:59,880 Speaker 3: if you get something that's going to hit a similar 89 00:05:00,080 --> 00:05:03,360 Speaker 3: number of people. We certainly saw that with COVID, where 90 00:05:03,680 --> 00:05:08,120 Speaker 3: it transmitted so easily that mortality rates weren't anywhere near 91 00:05:08,120 --> 00:05:11,640 Speaker 3: what we've seen with avian influenza, but it infected millions 92 00:05:11,680 --> 00:05:15,160 Speaker 3: and millions and millions of people. If you start getting 93 00:05:15,320 --> 00:05:18,720 Speaker 3: mortality rates that are even double digits, you will have 94 00:05:18,920 --> 00:05:21,920 Speaker 3: a skyrocketing number of deaths, just absolutely overwhelming. 95 00:05:22,520 --> 00:05:26,040 Speaker 4: Avian influenza doesn't discriminate by age in the same way 96 00:05:26,240 --> 00:05:29,440 Speaker 4: as we saw with the COVID dynamics, and that's very different. 97 00:05:29,480 --> 00:05:31,880 Speaker 4: You know, we're seeing this girl in Cambodia died from it. 98 00:05:31,920 --> 00:05:34,880 Speaker 4: She's eleven. So I think when you speak to epidemiologists 99 00:05:34,920 --> 00:05:38,040 Speaker 4: and scientists, the ultimate concern is that an avian influenza 100 00:05:38,080 --> 00:05:40,960 Speaker 4: pandemic could absolutely dwarf the six point eight million deaths 101 00:05:40,960 --> 00:05:44,159 Speaker 4: we saw from COVID nineteen. COVID nineteen was an event 102 00:05:44,200 --> 00:05:49,040 Speaker 4: that has traumatized the world was destructive economically, emotionally on 103 00:05:49,040 --> 00:05:52,200 Speaker 4: every single scale globally, But Avian influenza would be something 104 00:05:52,200 --> 00:05:54,799 Speaker 4: that would be so far beyond COVID nineteen it doesn't 105 00:05:54,800 --> 00:05:55,760 Speaker 4: even bear thinking about. 106 00:05:57,000 --> 00:06:01,040 Speaker 2: Michelle Susie mentioned an eleven year old girl in Cambodia 107 00:06:01,120 --> 00:06:04,200 Speaker 2: who died from bird flu. You went to Cambodia, where 108 00:06:04,279 --> 00:06:07,160 Speaker 2: there is a very big effort to try to contain 109 00:06:07,400 --> 00:06:09,440 Speaker 2: it spread. What did you find there. 110 00:06:09,800 --> 00:06:13,599 Speaker 3: Well, Cambodia has been dealing with bird flu for years. 111 00:06:13,600 --> 00:06:16,760 Speaker 3: At this point, they haven't had any cases since twenty fourteen. 112 00:06:17,320 --> 00:06:20,599 Speaker 3: The first sign that there was something amiss in Cambodia 113 00:06:20,920 --> 00:06:24,840 Speaker 3: was when some chickens turned up dead on the side 114 00:06:24,880 --> 00:06:27,800 Speaker 3: of the river, and the local villagers just put it 115 00:06:27,839 --> 00:06:31,440 Speaker 3: down to the heat, which is unrelenting in Cambodia. In 116 00:06:31,480 --> 00:06:34,760 Speaker 3: February when this all occurred. A few days after that, 117 00:06:34,960 --> 00:06:37,640 Speaker 3: the eleven year old girl, a sixth grader, asked her 118 00:06:37,640 --> 00:06:40,120 Speaker 3: teacher if she could go home because she wasn't feeling well. 119 00:06:40,760 --> 00:06:42,920 Speaker 3: No one put those two pieces together, and of course 120 00:06:42,960 --> 00:06:46,520 Speaker 3: they did send her home. Her family took care of her. 121 00:06:46,760 --> 00:06:49,440 Speaker 3: Her grandmother and her aunt, who she lived with, tended 122 00:06:49,480 --> 00:06:51,360 Speaker 3: to her and she continued to get worse, so they 123 00:06:51,360 --> 00:06:54,400 Speaker 3: brought her to a local clinic who gave her some treatment, 124 00:06:54,800 --> 00:06:57,839 Speaker 3: and she continued to not get better. At that point, 125 00:06:57,920 --> 00:07:02,280 Speaker 3: the village doctor suggest that her family bring her to 126 00:07:02,400 --> 00:07:05,800 Speaker 3: the main hospital in p Nom Pen. Her father brought 127 00:07:05,800 --> 00:07:08,800 Speaker 3: her there the next morning, and they thought that she 128 00:07:08,960 --> 00:07:12,360 Speaker 3: had seasonal influenza, which is something that is going around. 129 00:07:12,720 --> 00:07:16,360 Speaker 3: They did give her tama flu to treat that infection, 130 00:07:16,960 --> 00:07:19,200 Speaker 3: and they tested her to see what the infection was, 131 00:07:19,560 --> 00:07:23,000 Speaker 3: but they didn't know about the chickens. No one put 132 00:07:23,080 --> 00:07:26,200 Speaker 3: that piece together, so they didn't rush the test. She 133 00:07:26,360 --> 00:07:29,040 Speaker 3: was there overnight. In the morning she had passed away. 134 00:07:29,520 --> 00:07:32,240 Speaker 3: A few hours after that, they got the result that 135 00:07:32,280 --> 00:07:35,800 Speaker 3: it was adian influenza. When they got that result, that's 136 00:07:35,840 --> 00:07:38,880 Speaker 3: when the alarm bell started ringing, and the health authorities 137 00:07:39,000 --> 00:07:42,880 Speaker 3: in that province rushed to the village to set up 138 00:07:43,080 --> 00:07:46,880 Speaker 3: this makeshift testing and to reach out to everyone in 139 00:07:46,880 --> 00:07:49,320 Speaker 3: the vicinity to find out exactly what the risk was. 140 00:07:50,080 --> 00:07:53,880 Speaker 2: And even though this girl and her father both contracted 141 00:07:53,920 --> 00:07:57,200 Speaker 2: bird flu, they were able to determine that it wasn't 142 00:07:57,560 --> 00:07:59,760 Speaker 2: a human to human transfer. The daughter didn't give it 143 00:07:59,760 --> 00:08:02,880 Speaker 2: to the father or the other way around, right. 144 00:08:02,880 --> 00:08:07,560 Speaker 3: So the family actually lived in a house that was 145 00:08:07,680 --> 00:08:10,000 Speaker 3: up on stilts. Now a lot of these homes are 146 00:08:10,040 --> 00:08:13,920 Speaker 3: like that because they have hammocks and living space underneath 147 00:08:13,920 --> 00:08:17,200 Speaker 3: the houses because of the shade, and they live very 148 00:08:17,240 --> 00:08:21,640 Speaker 3: close to their animals. So many houses had dogs and 149 00:08:21,720 --> 00:08:25,520 Speaker 3: cows in their yards, and chickens were ubiquitous. What happened 150 00:08:25,520 --> 00:08:28,920 Speaker 3: with this family is that they did have four chickens, 151 00:08:28,960 --> 00:08:31,600 Speaker 3: and two of them had died, and they slept right 152 00:08:31,720 --> 00:08:35,440 Speaker 3: under the girl's room. The thought is that the girl 153 00:08:35,640 --> 00:08:39,560 Speaker 3: actually contracted the virus from the chicken, either before it 154 00:08:39,600 --> 00:08:43,359 Speaker 3: died or shortly after it died. Then her father actually 155 00:08:43,720 --> 00:08:47,120 Speaker 3: took the chicken. And because they do live so closely 156 00:08:47,160 --> 00:08:50,120 Speaker 3: with their poultry and with their animals, and because it 157 00:08:50,200 --> 00:08:54,800 Speaker 3: is so unbelievably hot in Cambodia, sometimes animals do just 158 00:08:54,920 --> 00:08:58,680 Speaker 3: die of heatstroke and they eat those animals. So the 159 00:08:58,760 --> 00:09:02,200 Speaker 3: father did eat the chicken that died. Of course, they 160 00:09:02,240 --> 00:09:04,520 Speaker 3: never did test it for bird flu, but at this 161 00:09:04,600 --> 00:09:08,160 Speaker 3: point the speculation is is that it had been infected. Now, 162 00:09:08,320 --> 00:09:12,400 Speaker 3: doctors point out that eating an infected animal is not 163 00:09:12,559 --> 00:09:15,880 Speaker 3: a problem if you cook it properly. What was probably 164 00:09:15,920 --> 00:09:18,080 Speaker 3: the issue for the father is that he had to 165 00:09:18,160 --> 00:09:20,880 Speaker 3: pluck all of the feathers off of the bird, and 166 00:09:20,920 --> 00:09:24,880 Speaker 3: by doing that he likely aerosolized the virus and contracted 167 00:09:24,920 --> 00:09:28,600 Speaker 3: it that way. If this virus had been able to 168 00:09:28,640 --> 00:09:31,880 Speaker 3: transmit from human to human, she had certainly been in 169 00:09:32,000 --> 00:09:34,800 Speaker 3: contact with many other people during this period of time. 170 00:09:35,160 --> 00:09:37,600 Speaker 3: So that's the piece that officials are still. 171 00:09:37,400 --> 00:09:38,360 Speaker 5: Going to have to be working on. 172 00:09:39,120 --> 00:09:43,679 Speaker 3: Within twenty four hours of doctors getting back the test 173 00:09:43,720 --> 00:09:48,640 Speaker 3: result that she had avian influenza, they had an entire team, 174 00:09:49,120 --> 00:09:53,160 Speaker 3: dozens of public health officials in her tiny village of 175 00:09:53,240 --> 00:09:57,199 Speaker 3: less than two thousand people. They canvassed the village, they 176 00:09:57,280 --> 00:10:02,079 Speaker 3: found her closest contacts, they did testings, they took the swabs, 177 00:10:02,120 --> 00:10:05,400 Speaker 3: they got the results, and they found another infection in 178 00:10:05,440 --> 00:10:09,280 Speaker 3: her father and ruled it out in about another dozen 179 00:10:09,640 --> 00:10:13,240 Speaker 3: of her closest schoolmates, her grandmother, and her aunt. So 180 00:10:13,280 --> 00:10:15,520 Speaker 3: they knew right away that they weren't dealing with a 181 00:10:15,559 --> 00:10:19,240 Speaker 3: big outbreak. And then they continued to stay for another 182 00:10:19,320 --> 00:10:23,880 Speaker 3: three weeks, testing dozens more people who developed flu symptoms, 183 00:10:23,920 --> 00:10:27,800 Speaker 3: any kind of a sniffle, cold, cough, headache. They tested everybody. 184 00:10:27,840 --> 00:10:30,080 Speaker 3: They didn't find anything else, so they were able to 185 00:10:30,080 --> 00:10:33,120 Speaker 3: shut it down and knew that they weren't transmitting. But 186 00:10:33,200 --> 00:10:35,280 Speaker 3: the idea that you can do something like that in 187 00:10:35,320 --> 00:10:39,000 Speaker 3: Cambodia in a place where most people live in a 188 00:10:39,040 --> 00:10:43,520 Speaker 3: pretty simple rural environment, and that they were able to 189 00:10:43,559 --> 00:10:46,199 Speaker 3: get in there and use some of the most advanced 190 00:10:46,679 --> 00:10:49,960 Speaker 3: medical technology that the world has in order to make 191 00:10:50,000 --> 00:10:53,240 Speaker 3: sure that they didn't have a runaway outbreak was amazing. 192 00:10:53,640 --> 00:10:55,920 Speaker 3: And the bottom line is that everywhere in the world 193 00:10:55,960 --> 00:10:58,080 Speaker 3: knows that they do not want to be the next Wuhan, 194 00:10:58,520 --> 00:11:01,920 Speaker 3: and health authorities worldwide are really focused on acting quickly. 195 00:11:02,880 --> 00:11:05,400 Speaker 2: When we come back, how countries around the globe are 196 00:11:05,679 --> 00:11:17,440 Speaker 2: responding to these bird flu outbreaks Susie. In this case, 197 00:11:17,480 --> 00:11:21,040 Speaker 2: we saw a rapid response from Cambodia, but what are 198 00:11:21,120 --> 00:11:24,559 Speaker 2: other countries in Europe and the US other places around 199 00:11:24,559 --> 00:11:27,959 Speaker 2: the world doing to prepare for the possibility that bird 200 00:11:28,000 --> 00:11:31,079 Speaker 2: flu may one day start to spread from person to person. 201 00:11:32,080 --> 00:11:35,880 Speaker 4: So we've seen similar levels of alertness globally. In the UK, 202 00:11:36,160 --> 00:11:40,000 Speaker 4: the government put together a panel around November of experts 203 00:11:40,040 --> 00:11:44,559 Speaker 4: both in zoology but also in human pandemic preparedness epidemiologists. 204 00:11:44,600 --> 00:11:47,760 Speaker 4: We had Neil Ferguson, the famous epidemiologists who advise the 205 00:11:47,840 --> 00:11:50,400 Speaker 4: UK government on its COVID nineteen responses on that panel, 206 00:11:50,840 --> 00:11:53,560 Speaker 4: and all of those experts have been meeting every week 207 00:11:53,640 --> 00:11:57,000 Speaker 4: or so and in smaller groups to discuss developments. 208 00:11:57,000 --> 00:11:58,480 Speaker 5: A number of them are doing research. 209 00:11:58,679 --> 00:12:01,680 Speaker 4: I spoke to one who at the Perbright Institute, which 210 00:12:01,679 --> 00:12:05,320 Speaker 4: is just outside London specifically focuses on animal diseases and 211 00:12:05,320 --> 00:12:07,880 Speaker 4: they are doing a lot of testing to monitor if 212 00:12:07,880 --> 00:12:10,760 Speaker 4: the virus is mutating and if the virus is able 213 00:12:10,800 --> 00:12:14,680 Speaker 4: to jump to human cells, and then feeding that research. 214 00:12:14,440 --> 00:12:16,959 Speaker 5: Back into that panel to keep an eye on it. 215 00:12:17,679 --> 00:12:19,880 Speaker 4: Other things they have put in place include kind of 216 00:12:19,960 --> 00:12:23,040 Speaker 4: risk based assessments, so they have alert levels for certain 217 00:12:23,520 --> 00:12:26,120 Speaker 4: signs of the virus evolving or changing, because we have 218 00:12:26,120 --> 00:12:30,920 Speaker 4: already seen mutations hence the jump from birds to mammalian species. Globally, 219 00:12:30,920 --> 00:12:32,920 Speaker 4: when it comes to controlling the virus, we've seen a 220 00:12:33,000 --> 00:12:35,719 Speaker 4: number of countries in the EU and the UK introducing 221 00:12:35,760 --> 00:12:38,720 Speaker 4: housing measures that basically means that farmers are forced to 222 00:12:38,760 --> 00:12:41,280 Speaker 4: keep their birds inside for the time being to make 223 00:12:41,280 --> 00:12:43,880 Speaker 4: sure that they're kept away from contact as far as 224 00:12:43,960 --> 00:12:45,640 Speaker 4: possible with wild birds that. 225 00:12:45,640 --> 00:12:47,520 Speaker 5: May be carrying the virus. In the UK. 226 00:12:47,640 --> 00:12:50,000 Speaker 4: That measure came in November and has actually just recently 227 00:12:50,040 --> 00:12:53,240 Speaker 4: been lifted. Some countries are also now actually changing their 228 00:12:53,280 --> 00:12:55,280 Speaker 4: stance around vaccination of birds as well. 229 00:12:55,640 --> 00:13:00,480 Speaker 2: The Buying Administration is considering vaccinations for chickens an option 230 00:13:00,559 --> 00:13:03,120 Speaker 2: to address concerns about a bird flu pandemic. 231 00:13:03,760 --> 00:13:06,120 Speaker 4: To date, that has been something countries have been hesitant 232 00:13:06,200 --> 00:13:08,400 Speaker 4: to do because of a fear of masking the virus 233 00:13:08,400 --> 00:13:11,960 Speaker 4: and just allowing it to pervade with asymptomatic symptoms. But 234 00:13:12,000 --> 00:13:14,240 Speaker 4: we've seen France has now asked a number of companies 235 00:13:14,280 --> 00:13:17,520 Speaker 4: to create vaccines for its birds. Netherlands similarly because they've 236 00:13:17,520 --> 00:13:18,960 Speaker 4: decided that it is actually going to be a better 237 00:13:19,000 --> 00:13:22,040 Speaker 4: way to control the virus overall in the long term. 238 00:13:22,880 --> 00:13:26,240 Speaker 3: Yeah, this is absolutely an issue worldwide. Brazil, which is 239 00:13:26,240 --> 00:13:30,000 Speaker 3: the largest exporter of chickens, hasn't had any Alian influenza 240 00:13:30,040 --> 00:13:33,240 Speaker 3: cases yet, and they are now surrounded by them from 241 00:13:33,440 --> 00:13:36,400 Speaker 3: their neighboring countries and they are really starting to worry 242 00:13:36,440 --> 00:13:39,360 Speaker 3: about it. They're tracking birds, they're tracking wild birds, they're 243 00:13:39,400 --> 00:13:41,400 Speaker 3: looking for the virus, trying to keep it out as 244 00:13:41,400 --> 00:13:43,640 Speaker 3: best they can. Although as su As you said, earlier. 245 00:13:43,720 --> 00:13:45,120 Speaker 5: It's a very difficult thing to do. 246 00:13:45,880 --> 00:13:49,320 Speaker 3: Countries like the US, major manufacturers like Tyson's Food are 247 00:13:49,360 --> 00:13:53,080 Speaker 3: really taking it very seriously, but it's very, very difficult 248 00:13:53,160 --> 00:13:56,680 Speaker 3: to stop something that literally flies through the air and 249 00:13:56,840 --> 00:14:01,239 Speaker 3: is carried by animals that are wild Asia. Avian influenza 250 00:14:01,320 --> 00:14:05,000 Speaker 3: has been here for years at this point. Hundreds of 251 00:14:05,000 --> 00:14:09,160 Speaker 3: people have gotten infected, hundreds have died from avian influenza. 252 00:14:09,440 --> 00:14:11,520 Speaker 3: That's one of the reasons that Cambodia was able to 253 00:14:11,559 --> 00:14:14,200 Speaker 3: respond so quickly when they did have a case. It 254 00:14:14,320 --> 00:14:18,360 Speaker 3: wasn't something that was unfamiliar to them. But just as 255 00:14:18,400 --> 00:14:21,480 Speaker 3: Cambodia is focusing in on this, everyone else in Asia 256 00:14:21,600 --> 00:14:24,080 Speaker 3: is as well. The other thing, of course, is that 257 00:14:24,320 --> 00:14:28,040 Speaker 3: influenzas do tend to pop up in Asia first and 258 00:14:28,080 --> 00:14:31,000 Speaker 3: then circulate through the rest of the world. And because 259 00:14:31,040 --> 00:14:35,440 Speaker 3: there is so much interaction between animals and people in 260 00:14:35,480 --> 00:14:38,960 Speaker 3: this region, for whatever reason, we do seem to see 261 00:14:38,960 --> 00:14:42,280 Speaker 3: a lot of spillover from animals to humans here happening first. 262 00:14:42,360 --> 00:14:44,840 Speaker 3: A lot of the brand new novel viruses that are 263 00:14:44,840 --> 00:14:48,520 Speaker 3: emerging come out of Asia. Of course, it's a significant 264 00:14:48,520 --> 00:14:53,040 Speaker 3: issue for China, which is where COVID first was identified, 265 00:14:53,600 --> 00:14:57,360 Speaker 3: and we have seen a case of avian influenza in 266 00:14:57,520 --> 00:15:01,400 Speaker 3: China and a death this serial read, so it is 267 00:15:01,440 --> 00:15:05,200 Speaker 3: something that is known and they are tracking it very closely. 268 00:15:06,120 --> 00:15:08,760 Speaker 4: I think the problem with this disease as well is 269 00:15:08,840 --> 00:15:11,280 Speaker 4: that you can do a certain amount to protect farm 270 00:15:11,320 --> 00:15:13,840 Speaker 4: animals and to protect poultry because they are in the 271 00:15:13,880 --> 00:15:16,400 Speaker 4: control of humans who are operating those farms and who 272 00:15:16,400 --> 00:15:18,640 Speaker 4: are producing eggs. So they can do what a number 273 00:15:18,640 --> 00:15:21,600 Speaker 4: of countries have done, which is keep birds inside, make 274 00:15:21,640 --> 00:15:24,880 Speaker 4: sure that they're not outside, to raise kind of levels 275 00:15:24,920 --> 00:15:27,240 Speaker 4: of security coming in and out of farms, making sure 276 00:15:27,280 --> 00:15:29,480 Speaker 4: people are having contact with the birds are doing so 277 00:15:29,600 --> 00:15:32,240 Speaker 4: in a cleanly or sterile way. But what you can't 278 00:15:32,280 --> 00:15:36,840 Speaker 4: control as wildbirds and the contact between wildbirds and domesticated birds. 279 00:15:37,120 --> 00:15:40,480 Speaker 4: So it would just take one infected wild bird flying 280 00:15:40,520 --> 00:15:44,760 Speaker 4: over a flock of domesticated poultry defecating and there you 281 00:15:44,840 --> 00:15:47,800 Speaker 4: have the outbreak, and there's little that farmers can do 282 00:15:47,880 --> 00:15:48,360 Speaker 4: about that. 283 00:15:48,800 --> 00:15:52,800 Speaker 2: And if that happens, it can decimate an entire flog. 284 00:15:53,040 --> 00:15:55,840 Speaker 4: Yes, that's right, because it's hugely transmissible. And also once 285 00:15:55,960 --> 00:15:59,600 Speaker 4: the infection's been discovered, then a mass coll often has 286 00:15:59,600 --> 00:16:01,520 Speaker 4: to happen because you need to make sure that that 287 00:16:01,560 --> 00:16:06,280 Speaker 4: doesn't then get transferred over into humans. So to illustrate 288 00:16:06,800 --> 00:16:09,560 Speaker 4: how difficult this virus is to control, we actually spoke 289 00:16:09,640 --> 00:16:13,080 Speaker 4: to one duck farmer outside the city of Seattle, and 290 00:16:13,160 --> 00:16:16,880 Speaker 4: she had, just before Christmas, decided to adopt some really 291 00:16:16,920 --> 00:16:22,640 Speaker 4: strict biosecurity measures, no visitors, specific shoes, specific jackets, a 292 00:16:22,640 --> 00:16:24,920 Speaker 4: guard dog, to make sure that wild birds were scared 293 00:16:24,920 --> 00:16:27,760 Speaker 4: away from the farm, every measure she possibly could to 294 00:16:27,800 --> 00:16:30,840 Speaker 4: protect her flock and ensure that avilamitwinsa didn't get in. 295 00:16:31,200 --> 00:16:34,080 Speaker 5: However, right before Christmas, she was forced to. 296 00:16:34,080 --> 00:16:36,840 Speaker 4: Call more than one hundred and seventy ducks and four geese, 297 00:16:36,920 --> 00:16:39,320 Speaker 4: And that could have just been simply because one bird 298 00:16:39,360 --> 00:16:42,120 Speaker 4: flew over her flock and defecated. And that's something that 299 00:16:42,160 --> 00:16:45,040 Speaker 4: she just can't control, no matter how many biosecurity business she. 300 00:16:45,000 --> 00:16:45,600 Speaker 5: Puts in place. 301 00:16:46,480 --> 00:16:50,560 Speaker 2: Susie, the avian flu isn't just having this impact on 302 00:16:50,640 --> 00:16:54,720 Speaker 2: birds and people in terms of becoming sick, but it's 303 00:16:54,800 --> 00:16:59,520 Speaker 2: also having really big economic effects. How has this outbreak 304 00:16:59,560 --> 00:17:01,880 Speaker 2: effected businesses and consumers? 305 00:17:03,040 --> 00:17:06,439 Speaker 4: So the economic impact of this has already been huge 306 00:17:06,480 --> 00:17:09,159 Speaker 4: despite not being a pandemic in humans, despite still being 307 00:17:09,200 --> 00:17:13,159 Speaker 4: limited to the animal population. The USSDA estimates the burfy 308 00:17:13,200 --> 00:17:16,159 Speaker 4: outbreak has cost the US economy two billion dollars in 309 00:17:16,200 --> 00:17:17,040 Speaker 4: twenty twenty two. 310 00:17:17,480 --> 00:17:19,439 Speaker 5: The average price for a dozen of eggs has more 311 00:17:19,480 --> 00:17:19,960 Speaker 5: than a double. 312 00:17:20,240 --> 00:17:24,200 Speaker 2: Eggs has been skyrock The prices of eggs won't stop climbing. 313 00:17:24,080 --> 00:17:25,600 Speaker 5: Because we've had these mass coals. 314 00:17:25,600 --> 00:17:28,960 Speaker 4: That means you've got less birds producing eggs, but also 315 00:17:29,000 --> 00:17:31,639 Speaker 4: it's a huge blow to the farming industry. By culling 316 00:17:31,720 --> 00:17:35,680 Speaker 4: all these birds, you're significantly impacting those industries and their 317 00:17:35,760 --> 00:17:39,359 Speaker 4: usual revenue generating means both selling and buying birds, but 318 00:17:39,400 --> 00:17:40,920 Speaker 4: also the products. 319 00:17:40,480 --> 00:17:43,280 Speaker 5: The eggs, which has had a huge impact globally. That's 320 00:17:43,320 --> 00:17:44,680 Speaker 5: not just limited to the US, of course. 321 00:17:44,680 --> 00:17:48,479 Speaker 4: We've seen huge coals in China, in the UK, in Europe. 322 00:17:48,560 --> 00:17:52,919 Speaker 3: And it goes beyond even the animals themselves. Many of 323 00:17:52,920 --> 00:17:56,800 Speaker 3: the products that are made using these ingredients, right mayonnaise, 324 00:17:56,880 --> 00:17:59,399 Speaker 3: think about it, there's been a shortage of eggs that 325 00:17:59,440 --> 00:18:03,159 Speaker 3: you need to make mayonnaise in other places. In Japan, 326 00:18:03,320 --> 00:18:08,119 Speaker 3: for example, some McDonald stopped making certain products because they 327 00:18:08,240 --> 00:18:11,879 Speaker 3: needed to use ingredients that included eggs and they couldn't 328 00:18:11,880 --> 00:18:15,160 Speaker 3: get enough of them to actually offer those products. So 329 00:18:15,200 --> 00:18:19,399 Speaker 3: we did see a huge impact over the course of 330 00:18:19,560 --> 00:18:23,600 Speaker 3: the early parts of this year from the mass calling 331 00:18:23,880 --> 00:18:26,680 Speaker 3: and the lack of animal meat and eggs. 332 00:18:28,240 --> 00:18:31,719 Speaker 2: Susie, given everything we've been talking about today and the 333 00:18:31,840 --> 00:18:36,520 Speaker 2: levels of preparation needed to combat what may be coming, 334 00:18:36,760 --> 00:18:39,159 Speaker 2: what are you watching for as you're reporting this story? 335 00:18:39,160 --> 00:18:41,200 Speaker 2: What do you think comes next? 336 00:18:41,480 --> 00:18:44,280 Speaker 5: I think the key things are that human to human transmission. 337 00:18:44,680 --> 00:18:47,639 Speaker 4: We have experts who are monitoring this constantly, and governments 338 00:18:47,680 --> 00:18:49,960 Speaker 4: are clearly on high alert for this, and at the 339 00:18:50,000 --> 00:18:54,720 Speaker 4: moment it's not seeming like scientists are overly concerned about 340 00:18:54,760 --> 00:18:58,280 Speaker 4: that happening. However, you just can't say never with these diseases. 341 00:18:58,480 --> 00:19:00,840 Speaker 4: But I think the bigger question that it also raises 342 00:19:00,960 --> 00:19:03,680 Speaker 4: is while we have seen a good level of preparedness 343 00:19:03,720 --> 00:19:06,320 Speaker 4: with avian influenza, it's also a disease that we know 344 00:19:06,400 --> 00:19:09,200 Speaker 4: a lot about and scientists have been researching it for decades. 345 00:19:09,280 --> 00:19:12,960 Speaker 4: We have influenza vaccines, albeit not bespoke ones to avian 346 00:19:13,000 --> 00:19:15,720 Speaker 4: influenza of a strain that will transmit between humans at 347 00:19:15,720 --> 00:19:18,520 Speaker 4: this point, but we have templates. What we don't have 348 00:19:18,840 --> 00:19:20,960 Speaker 4: for a number of other invectious diseases is much for 349 00:19:21,080 --> 00:19:23,800 Speaker 4: such at all. There's a whole list of infectious diseases 350 00:19:23,840 --> 00:19:27,080 Speaker 4: that the WHO has that have very little known about them. 351 00:19:27,400 --> 00:19:29,959 Speaker 4: And having spoken to scientists in recent months about this, 352 00:19:30,480 --> 00:19:32,840 Speaker 4: there is a sense that governments have slightly kind of 353 00:19:32,960 --> 00:19:35,160 Speaker 4: vacated this space. You know, we're living in a cost 354 00:19:35,160 --> 00:19:37,720 Speaker 4: of living crisis, we have the a Russia Ukrainian War, 355 00:19:37,840 --> 00:19:39,720 Speaker 4: there are so many other things that governments are having 356 00:19:39,760 --> 00:19:41,960 Speaker 4: to contend with at this point, and also a certain 357 00:19:41,960 --> 00:19:44,159 Speaker 4: amount of pandemic fatigue. People want to move on from 358 00:19:44,240 --> 00:19:46,280 Speaker 4: COVID nineteen. They don't want it to be ever present 359 00:19:46,280 --> 00:19:48,760 Speaker 4: in their lives, but there is a reality to which 360 00:19:48,880 --> 00:19:51,720 Speaker 4: we will have another pandemic at point. It might not 361 00:19:51,800 --> 00:19:54,399 Speaker 4: be tomorrow, but it will happen. So if we are 362 00:19:54,440 --> 00:19:58,000 Speaker 4: not careful, we will find ourselves in a position that 363 00:19:58,040 --> 00:20:00,399 Speaker 4: could be far far worse than COVID, with a. 364 00:20:00,400 --> 00:20:02,119 Speaker 5: Disease that we know very little about. 365 00:20:02,160 --> 00:20:05,160 Speaker 4: So I think it's just important at the moment that 366 00:20:05,200 --> 00:20:07,479 Speaker 4: we keep that front of mine, and scientists are very 367 00:20:07,560 --> 00:20:10,480 Speaker 4: much rallying governments to keep that front of mine right now. 368 00:20:11,200 --> 00:20:13,960 Speaker 2: Michelle Susie, thanks so much for speaking. 369 00:20:13,680 --> 00:20:14,240 Speaker 6: With me today. 370 00:20:14,720 --> 00:20:16,600 Speaker 5: Thanks guys, thank you so much. 371 00:20:17,560 --> 00:20:21,760 Speaker 2: After the break. How do these viruses work and how 372 00:20:21,800 --> 00:20:33,680 Speaker 2: far are we from a bird flu vaccine? Now, let's 373 00:20:33,680 --> 00:20:36,840 Speaker 2: hear from someone who studies exactly how bird flu and 374 00:20:36,920 --> 00:20:41,000 Speaker 2: other viruses make that leap from animals to humans and 375 00:20:41,040 --> 00:20:45,440 Speaker 2: then sometimes humans to humans. Doctor Richard Webbe is an 376 00:20:45,480 --> 00:20:50,200 Speaker 2: infectious diseases expert at Saint Jude's Hospital in Memphis and 377 00:20:51,000 --> 00:20:55,880 Speaker 2: director of the World Health Organization's Collaborating Center for Studies 378 00:20:55,920 --> 00:20:59,720 Speaker 2: on the Ecology of Influenza in Animals and birds. 379 00:21:01,200 --> 00:21:06,080 Speaker 1: There's three sort of major categories of change the avian 380 00:21:06,119 --> 00:21:10,280 Speaker 1: flu virus has to make to successfully make that next leap, 381 00:21:10,320 --> 00:21:10,879 Speaker 1: so it goes. 382 00:21:10,800 --> 00:21:12,680 Speaker 6: Human to human, to human to human and then sort 383 00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:13,320 Speaker 6: of it's all over. 384 00:21:13,920 --> 00:21:17,000 Speaker 1: One of those is the way in which this virus 385 00:21:17,040 --> 00:21:21,720 Speaker 1: interacts with the host's cell. These viruses buying to sugars 386 00:21:21,800 --> 00:21:24,399 Speaker 1: on the surface of a cell. Those sugars are different 387 00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:27,560 Speaker 1: in avian hosts and now in human so as virus 388 00:21:27,560 --> 00:21:30,720 Speaker 1: has got now change to recognize the human sugar a 389 00:21:30,760 --> 00:21:33,199 Speaker 1: bit better, that allows it to get into the human cell. 390 00:21:33,359 --> 00:21:36,960 Speaker 1: There's another category of change which stabilizes it makes it 391 00:21:36,960 --> 00:21:39,840 Speaker 1: a little bit more stable in the environment. And the 392 00:21:39,880 --> 00:21:43,120 Speaker 1: third category is the machinery that when this virus gets 393 00:21:43,160 --> 00:21:46,280 Speaker 1: into a cell essentially tells that cell to make more 394 00:21:46,320 --> 00:21:48,919 Speaker 1: copies of that virus. And the way it does it 395 00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:51,040 Speaker 1: is slightly different in an avian cell to human cell, 396 00:21:51,119 --> 00:21:53,160 Speaker 1: So it's got to make a few mutations in its 397 00:21:53,160 --> 00:21:56,119 Speaker 1: own genes to allow that to happen as well. 398 00:21:56,320 --> 00:21:59,440 Speaker 2: Now that we've seen avian flu make the first leap 399 00:21:59,480 --> 00:22:03,560 Speaker 2: from birds into humans, is it just a matter of 400 00:22:03,680 --> 00:22:07,600 Speaker 2: time that it will learn to adapt and spread from 401 00:22:07,680 --> 00:22:10,440 Speaker 2: human to humans? Is this just an inevitable thing or 402 00:22:10,440 --> 00:22:11,520 Speaker 2: could it just never happen? 403 00:22:12,320 --> 00:22:14,960 Speaker 1: There is a possibility could never happen. If you think 404 00:22:14,960 --> 00:22:17,840 Speaker 1: of all of the flu viruses that are in the 405 00:22:17,960 --> 00:22:22,679 Speaker 1: wild bird wild duck populations, only three major groups. Some 406 00:22:22,720 --> 00:22:25,840 Speaker 1: are very successfully actually made that leap from being a 407 00:22:25,920 --> 00:22:28,720 Speaker 1: duck virus to being a human virus. This bird flu 408 00:22:28,800 --> 00:22:31,960 Speaker 1: virus that we have circulating now, we have never seen 409 00:22:32,000 --> 00:22:35,159 Speaker 1: it as a virus that successfully transmits in humans before, 410 00:22:35,200 --> 00:22:38,720 Speaker 1: and some people interpret that as saying, well, it doesn't actually. 411 00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:39,000 Speaker 6: Have a threat. 412 00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:41,639 Speaker 1: Now I read the Telly's a little bit different. I 413 00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:44,400 Speaker 1: read that as saying, you know, this is a virus 414 00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:48,119 Speaker 1: that does have the capacity to transmit between humans, and 415 00:22:48,119 --> 00:22:51,399 Speaker 1: there's some experimental data that suggests that's the case, but 416 00:22:51,440 --> 00:22:54,000 Speaker 1: it just has a few more hurdles to get over 417 00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:55,080 Speaker 1: to make that switch. 418 00:22:55,880 --> 00:22:59,720 Speaker 2: You and other scientists who are studying this problem are 419 00:23:00,160 --> 00:23:02,359 Speaker 2: of something the alarmed to say, we need to have 420 00:23:02,760 --> 00:23:06,000 Speaker 2: preparations in place for the day that it might happen. 421 00:23:06,080 --> 00:23:09,159 Speaker 6: Exactly how do you prepare for that? We really have 422 00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:11,320 Speaker 6: to prepare for it. So and the question what can 423 00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:11,680 Speaker 6: we do. 424 00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:15,399 Speaker 1: We can at least go down that pipeline of getting 425 00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:18,840 Speaker 1: vaccines ready to go for some of these viruses. 426 00:23:18,920 --> 00:23:20,760 Speaker 6: You know, this virus will continue. 427 00:23:20,320 --> 00:23:23,760 Speaker 1: To evolve in birds and as it sort of jumps 428 00:23:23,760 --> 00:23:26,399 Speaker 1: into different hosts, so it will change. But there's some 429 00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:29,639 Speaker 1: things we can do now that if there is a 430 00:23:29,680 --> 00:23:32,840 Speaker 1: response needed to this virus in terms of vaccine, you know, 431 00:23:32,840 --> 00:23:35,560 Speaker 1: we're a little ways already down that path. We can 432 00:23:35,560 --> 00:23:39,000 Speaker 1: make sure that our diagnostic cassays that we have to 433 00:23:39,040 --> 00:23:43,880 Speaker 1: detect this virus are robust and they're widely distributed, make 434 00:23:43,960 --> 00:23:45,800 Speaker 1: people aware of the fact that this is a virus 435 00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:47,520 Speaker 1: that's out there in the environment. 436 00:23:49,840 --> 00:23:52,639 Speaker 2: So those are all things that can be done. What 437 00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:56,199 Speaker 2: is being done? What are the World Health Organization and 438 00:23:56,240 --> 00:24:00,840 Speaker 2: other government bodies doing to try to get ready. 439 00:24:01,359 --> 00:24:04,399 Speaker 1: In terms of the World Health Organization, there's a couple 440 00:24:04,400 --> 00:24:07,960 Speaker 1: of things that they do do. One, follow the evolution 441 00:24:08,040 --> 00:24:10,160 Speaker 1: of this particular virus, and if it looks like has 442 00:24:10,240 --> 00:24:12,840 Speaker 1: changed a little bit, there will update some of what 443 00:24:12,920 --> 00:24:15,680 Speaker 1: we call vaccine viruses, and these are the viruses that 444 00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:19,720 Speaker 1: would go to manufacturers to make vaccine. Typically takes around 445 00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:21,760 Speaker 1: about four to six weeks to make these, so if 446 00:24:21,800 --> 00:24:24,680 Speaker 1: we make those in advance, then that takes that amount 447 00:24:24,720 --> 00:24:27,600 Speaker 1: of time off a response. So this is a continual process. 448 00:24:28,000 --> 00:24:30,040 Speaker 1: Quite a lot of risk assessment that's been done, sort 449 00:24:30,080 --> 00:24:32,879 Speaker 1: of going over the data that's available on these viruses. 450 00:24:32,920 --> 00:24:36,040 Speaker 1: There's anything changing in terms of risk to humans. From 451 00:24:36,040 --> 00:24:40,000 Speaker 1: a more governmental national perspective, the US government has put 452 00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:44,919 Speaker 1: a lot of resources into making some stockpoles against the 453 00:24:45,119 --> 00:24:47,720 Speaker 1: H five, which is the avian flu that we're talking 454 00:24:47,760 --> 00:24:50,360 Speaker 1: about now. Some of those are a little bit older now, 455 00:24:50,520 --> 00:24:54,280 Speaker 1: so it's a little unclear as to how useful they'll 456 00:24:54,320 --> 00:24:58,200 Speaker 1: be with the current strain. But as manufacturers get these viruses, 457 00:24:58,200 --> 00:25:00,119 Speaker 1: they grow, then they put there in a facility. We 458 00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:04,199 Speaker 1: do small clinical trials, we learn how to make manufacture, 459 00:25:04,240 --> 00:25:07,199 Speaker 1: distribute these vaccines. So there is quite a bit of 460 00:25:07,280 --> 00:25:11,040 Speaker 1: experience in terms of making at least small scale vaccines 461 00:25:11,080 --> 00:25:13,400 Speaker 1: against this virus, and that's been a process that's been 462 00:25:13,440 --> 00:25:15,320 Speaker 1: going on for a couple of decades. 463 00:25:15,359 --> 00:25:15,600 Speaker 6: Now. 464 00:25:16,560 --> 00:25:20,040 Speaker 2: Has it been difficult to communicate the sense of urgency 465 00:25:20,160 --> 00:25:23,680 Speaker 2: to governments and even just citizens who may be kind 466 00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:26,920 Speaker 2: of fatigued after COVID and not wanting to think about 467 00:25:27,280 --> 00:25:28,439 Speaker 2: another pandemic. 468 00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:32,240 Speaker 1: I think we're all sick of hear hanging about viruses. 469 00:25:32,720 --> 00:25:37,679 Speaker 1: This H five bird flu virus has been around in 470 00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:40,680 Speaker 1: various forms for a lot of time. The alarm bells 471 00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:43,760 Speaker 1: have been ringing on this one since really nineteen ninety 472 00:25:43,760 --> 00:25:46,160 Speaker 1: seven when it first crossed over to humans in Hong Kong. 473 00:25:46,280 --> 00:25:48,800 Speaker 1: So it's not just even the COVID pandemic with this, 474 00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:50,359 Speaker 1: it's look out, this virus coming. 475 00:25:50,359 --> 00:25:52,000 Speaker 6: Look out, this virus is coming. And you know, so 476 00:25:52,080 --> 00:25:52,800 Speaker 6: far it hasn't. 477 00:25:53,320 --> 00:25:55,680 Speaker 1: But yeah, it's really hard in that environment, and then 478 00:25:55,720 --> 00:25:59,280 Speaker 1: with the COVID fatigue on top of it to get 479 00:25:59,400 --> 00:26:02,280 Speaker 1: too many people sort of excited and interested and just 480 00:26:02,320 --> 00:26:05,080 Speaker 1: to really understand the threat that this virus poses. 481 00:26:05,520 --> 00:26:08,879 Speaker 2: If it should come to pass, that it is able 482 00:26:08,960 --> 00:26:12,800 Speaker 2: to transmit human to human. Are you optimistic that we're ready? 483 00:26:13,520 --> 00:26:16,960 Speaker 1: Unfortunately, we're not going to be ready in terms of 484 00:26:17,119 --> 00:26:19,320 Speaker 1: if we're thinking, well, we're ready tomorrow, we're going to 485 00:26:19,320 --> 00:26:21,440 Speaker 1: have vaccine in our arms. We're going to be able 486 00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:24,200 Speaker 1: to stop the spread of this virus. That's not going 487 00:26:24,240 --> 00:26:27,480 Speaker 1: to happen. Having said that, we're going to compare what 488 00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:30,600 Speaker 1: our response to a flu pandemic might be to sort 489 00:26:30,600 --> 00:26:34,199 Speaker 1: of what our response to the COVID nineteen pandemic was. 490 00:26:35,920 --> 00:26:39,280 Speaker 1: There's are some advantages of flu one. We're preparing for 491 00:26:39,359 --> 00:26:41,520 Speaker 1: it now. We've been preparing for a flu pandemic. 492 00:26:41,200 --> 00:26:41,680 Speaker 6: For a long time. 493 00:26:41,760 --> 00:26:43,960 Speaker 1: That wasn't necessarily the case for COVID. They came a 494 00:26:43,960 --> 00:26:47,119 Speaker 1: little bit out of left field. We know how to 495 00:26:47,160 --> 00:26:50,119 Speaker 1: make flu vaccines that work. We have a lot of 496 00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:54,040 Speaker 1: experience with that. There's a lot of capacity to diagnose 497 00:26:54,320 --> 00:26:58,200 Speaker 1: and fluenza out there. So rather than almost starting from 498 00:26:58,720 --> 00:27:02,400 Speaker 1: zero to sixty, we had to go with the COVID response. 499 00:27:02,440 --> 00:27:04,920 Speaker 1: You know, we're almost sort of cruising along at thirty 500 00:27:04,960 --> 00:27:06,399 Speaker 1: mile an hour here, so I've just got to go 501 00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:08,280 Speaker 1: thirty to sixty with a flu pandemic. 502 00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:11,399 Speaker 2: Doctor Richard Webby, thanks for speaking with me today. 503 00:27:11,800 --> 00:27:13,560 Speaker 6: It's a pleasure waste. Thank you so much. 504 00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:16,240 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to us here at The Big Take. 505 00:27:16,359 --> 00:27:19,560 Speaker 2: It's a daily podcast from Bloomberg and iHeartRadio. For more 506 00:27:19,600 --> 00:27:23,639 Speaker 2: shows from iHeartRadio, visit the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or 507 00:27:23,680 --> 00:27:26,200 Speaker 2: wherever you listen. And we'd love to hear from you. 508 00:27:26,359 --> 00:27:29,720 Speaker 2: Email us questions or comments to Big Take at Bloomberg 509 00:27:29,760 --> 00:27:33,119 Speaker 2: dot net. The supervising producer of the Big Take is 510 00:27:33,200 --> 00:27:37,880 Speaker 2: Vicky Bergolina. Our senior producer is Katherine Fink. Federica Romanello 511 00:27:38,040 --> 00:27:42,400 Speaker 2: is our producer. Our associate producer is Zenobsidiki Raphael i'm 512 00:27:42,440 --> 00:27:46,080 Speaker 2: seely is our engineer. Our original music was composed by 513 00:27:46,160 --> 00:27:50,240 Speaker 2: Leo Sidrin i'm Weskasova. We'll be back tomorrow with another 514 00:27:50,280 --> 00:27:50,800 Speaker 2: Big Take.