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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Do us proud

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Speaker 1: read a lot? They're all for running a game so smooth,

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Speaker 1: so sweet.

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Speaker 2: Splendid sisting just glorious.

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Speaker 3: Ex procution, guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent

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Speaker 3: effort four thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 2: How shot with that shop of mind?

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Speaker 1: But buddy, and that's why you.

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Speaker 2: See nor beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 1: Look at his movements the most dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 1: Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 3: Shut up, I'm trying again. The all it's left too,

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Speaker 3: the wide eyed drill pibus, how old Earth big happens.

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Speaker 3: Hello everybody, Welcome to Wondergul, the soccer betting podcast from

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Speaker 3: the Action Network. My name is Michael Leeboff, and joining

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Speaker 3: me as always are my friend and Action colleagues Anthony

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Speaker 3: Dbundo and bj Cunningham. And this episode we will go

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Speaker 3: over the four remaining first legs of the Round of

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Speaker 3: sixteen in the Champions League, and then we will dive

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Speaker 3: into some midweek Premier League matches there's a handful of them,

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Speaker 3: and a couple of tasty ones at that before giving

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Speaker 3: out our best bets and then we'll get out of here.

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Speaker 3: The best place to start this episode is at Stanford Bridge,

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Speaker 3: where Chelsea are minus three hundred hosting lil There plus

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Speaker 3: eight fifty traveling to London the draws plus four to fifty.

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Speaker 3: This game is a three pm kickoff on Tuesday on

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Speaker 3: the two advanced line. Chelsea's minus four fifty prohibitive favorites

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Speaker 3: and the French team they're coming back at three to one. Anthony,

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Speaker 3: I think we're catching Chelsea at a weird spot. They're

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Speaker 3: not in particularly a good form. They're two two to

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Speaker 3: one win draw loss over the last five. In those

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Speaker 3: five matches, their expected gold differential is only plus zero

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Speaker 3: point three to eight, which is not at the elite

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Speaker 3: level you'd expect over team that we thought was going

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Speaker 3: to challenge for a Premier League title through the first

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Speaker 3: couple months of the season, and they are the defending

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Speaker 3: Champions League title holders and they're creating just under one

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Speaker 3: expected goal for per match in the span and going

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Speaker 3: up against Little that's a bit of an issue just

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Speaker 3: because their defensive records pretty good. Here they aren't getting

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Speaker 3: the results in legal but their underlying metrics, especially defensively,

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Speaker 3: are quite strong. So do you think this is a

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Speaker 3: good BILO spot on Chelsea or do you think that

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Speaker 3: the name recognition is maybe causing this price to be

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Speaker 3: a little inflated on the defending champions, giving Lil an

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Speaker 3: opportunity or giving better as an opportunity to back a

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Speaker 3: dynamic French side here.

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Speaker 2: I personally think Chelsea remains overvalued and I think you're

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Speaker 2: getting for this podcast a team that we generally think

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Speaker 2: is pretty overrated in Chelsea, especially the way that they've

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Speaker 2: been lined recently over the last two months. Since December started,

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Speaker 2: Chelsea's just eighth an expected goal difference in the Premier League.

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Speaker 2: It's not a huge sample because there were not a

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Speaker 2: ton of games in January, but that includes two games

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Speaker 2: against Tottenham where they actually played pretty well, I thought,

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Speaker 2: And so Chelsea have played well at times, but they

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Speaker 2: have certainly lacked consistency. And it doesn't look like Mason

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Speaker 2: Mount is going to be back for this game, and

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Speaker 2: I think he's actually a huge loss in their midfield

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Speaker 2: and how much he's able to press from the front

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Speaker 2: and how much he's able to prevent teams from playing

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Speaker 2: through them, especially on the counter when they lose the ball.

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Speaker 2: He's excellent at organizing the press and trying to win

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Speaker 2: it back. So without him. I think that's a pretty

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Speaker 2: big loss. They're still down in the full backs. They

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Speaker 2: actually switched to a back four against Palace and it

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Speaker 2: kind of worked. I mean, they won, right, but they

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Speaker 2: also needed a last minute goal from Hakim Ziek on

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Speaker 2: what I thought was a pretty poor job defensively from Palace. Overall,

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Speaker 2: they created ten shots, one point two expected goals. They

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Speaker 2: had seven passes into the penalty area and just three carries,

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Speaker 2: So this wasn't exactly the ball progression and shot numbers

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Speaker 2: you're looking to see from a team who's about to

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Speaker 2: make a Champions League run. And I know this is

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Speaker 2: the first leg of the Champions League. You're not really

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Speaker 2: looking ahead per se. But they do have a cup

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Speaker 2: final on Sunday against Liverpool in the Caraveo Cup, so

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Speaker 2: certainly one I could potentially be on that. And they've

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Speaker 2: just been kind of all over the place between the

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Speaker 2: Club World Cup, then in the Premier League, now in

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Speaker 2: the Champions League. They've got the EFL Cup match on Sunday.

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Speaker 2: It's just a lot they're trying to balance right now.

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Speaker 2: And this Leo defense is elite, elite, elite, number one

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Speaker 2: in France. Big scoring chances allowed the fewest. Chelsea has

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Speaker 2: had a big problem creating big chances lately. Leo also

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Speaker 2: only conceded two goals from open play in six matches

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Speaker 2: in the group stage. They conceded a couple of penalties

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Speaker 2: to Salsburg like everybody else, but otherwise one goal to

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Speaker 2: Wolfsburg and one goal to Sevilla and that was it.

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Speaker 2: So this defense they conceded the second fewest expected goals,

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Speaker 2: you know, in the group stage as well. So I

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Speaker 2: think you're getting an elite defense who's going to sit deep,

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Speaker 2: They're going to park the bus. It probably won't be

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Speaker 2: the most exciting match in the world, but they've got

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Speaker 2: some counter attacking pieces I like, and I think that

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Speaker 2: you know, they may lose us by a goal, but

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Speaker 2: I'm taking Leo plus one and a half.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I like the money line. I think plus a

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Speaker 3: fifty worth it. You're getting a lot of times like

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Speaker 3: you just got away, like is this team too good

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Speaker 3: to ever be this high no matter the opposition. Maybe

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Speaker 3: you're stretching it with this with lele but you know,

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Speaker 3: we saw it with Tottenham over the weekend, right they

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Speaker 3: got to eleven to one. When you see a team

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Speaker 3: that good, you should maybe just always think to have

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Speaker 3: a sprinkle on a team. When you see a team

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Speaker 3: that is really good, no matter the opposition, at a

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Speaker 3: big number in soccer, a ninety minute sample, it's always

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Speaker 3: worth it to have a little bit of a taste,

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Speaker 3: I think, and that's that's my thinking here, especially you

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Speaker 3: touched on it. I think it's a weird, weird spot

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Speaker 3: for Chelsea. They're a bit all over the place, like

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Speaker 3: you said, they were in the Club World Cup in

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Speaker 3: the Middle East. They come back a decent win, a

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Speaker 3: grinding win. I guess it's crystal Palace coming off of that,

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Speaker 3: I guess you can say. But still they're not showing

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Speaker 3: the consistency and that dynamic style cohesion, I guess is

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Speaker 3: the best word under Towokle that we saw in this

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Speaker 3: first calendar year in charge. I would say, so, I

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Speaker 3: think a good opportunity to fade Chelsea plus eight fifty LIL.

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Speaker 3: That's where I'm going BJ. I think you're you've been

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Speaker 3: into Lil quite a bit. You like the mass Stiffs,

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Speaker 3: you talked them up on this podcast. Are you coming

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Speaker 3: with us here?

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Speaker 1: Yes? In a way. I'm actually going under three goals

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Speaker 1: at minus one forty. The problem I have with lil Is.

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Speaker 1: I think this Chelsea team is honestly trending in the

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Speaker 1: right direction, even though it hasn't seemed like their results

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Speaker 1: have been that good. So essentially, over the last ten

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Speaker 1: Premier League matches, they've only allowed seven point two expected goals,

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Speaker 1: which is really really good, and honestly, it's starting to

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Speaker 1: get close to the numbers that we saw under Twuchul

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Speaker 1: over the second half of last season when they became

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Speaker 1: this just defensive juggernaut. Even in the Champions League, if

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Speaker 1: you throw out the three to three draw against Zenet

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Speaker 1: and Russia where just things got chaotic, Chelsea allowed two

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Speaker 1: point six expected goals in their other five Champions League

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Speaker 1: group stage matches, So this is still a very very

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Speaker 1: elite defense that I think lil Is going to have

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Speaker 1: a lot of trouble trying to break down. Now on

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Speaker 1: the flip side, they're Chelsea's offense. I question if they're

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Speaker 1: actually going to be able to get margin here against

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Speaker 1: Little which I would would play into you know, Little

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Speaker 1: money line or a little plus one and a half.

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Speaker 1: Only five point seven expected goals in their last six

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Speaker 1: is a bit concerning, especially since you know they'll be

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Speaker 1: facing the best defense in France. LIL Obviously, Anthony just

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Speaker 1: talked about how elite their defense is. It's actually due

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Speaker 1: for some some positive regression. Thirty five goals allowed in

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Speaker 1: League one off of only twenty seven point four expected,

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Speaker 1: so you know, even in the CHAMPIONSAGU group stage Anthony

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Speaker 1: mentioned it even, you know, along only two goals from

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Speaker 1: over and play nobody in all of their matches created

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Speaker 1: over one non penalty expected goal against them. It's a

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Speaker 1: really really good defense that's going to set up in

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Speaker 1: a four to four to two. They're happy letting Chelsea

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Speaker 1: have the possession, allowing them to just absorb that and

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Speaker 1: just try to play them on the counter zero zero draw.

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Speaker 1: They'd be so happy with that walking away with Stanford Bridge.

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Speaker 1: So but Chelsea winning this to nothing really scares me.

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Speaker 1: They obviously have the attacking pieces that can get through LIL.

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Speaker 1: So instead, I'm going to go under three goals, which

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Speaker 1: is currently at minus one. I only have two point

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Speaker 1: zero eight projected, So for two elite defensive units that

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Speaker 1: are allowing close to only one expectable per match domestically

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Speaker 1: in both their leagues, I think this is a good

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Speaker 1: price on under three goals.

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Speaker 3: One other thing I touched on too. Is just looking

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Speaker 3: ahead a little bit right They're little is three to

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Speaker 3: one on the two advance line right now. Chelsea's the

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Speaker 3: team a type of team right now in their current

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Speaker 3: form that if they did get away from this one

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Speaker 3: with like a one nil or two to one victory,

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Speaker 3: I would be pretty tempted on getting lil At a big,

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Speaker 3: big number to advance ahead of the second light, because

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Speaker 3: I think this Chelsea team they just seem vulnerable at

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Speaker 3: the moment. Like Anthony was saying, they're playing one hundred

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Speaker 3: different competitions, They've been all over the place, and it

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Speaker 3: just doesn't look like and they're underlying metrics. Spare this

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Speaker 3: out that they're playing in good form right now, Anthony,

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Speaker 3: anything to close this went out before we jump to

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Speaker 3: the other matchup Tuesday.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. I think it's Leal's ability to counter attack and

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Speaker 2: it's underrated generally, and I think that's the biggest question

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Speaker 2: mark here is can Le'll find those one or two

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Speaker 2: breakthroughs where they are able to string together some passes

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Speaker 2: and get through this Chelsea defense because they're not going

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Speaker 2: to have sustained possession on the road at Stanford Bridge.

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Speaker 2: They're not going to be bombarding the Chelsea goal with

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Speaker 2: a lot of shots. But if they can create enough

191
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Speaker 2: to get one or two big scoring chances, which I

192
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Speaker 2: think they can with guys like David up front, it

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Speaker 2: gets really interesting and difficult for Chelsea to get margin.

194
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Speaker 2: Another thing, Sven Botman one of the better aerial defenders

195
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Speaker 2: in all of Europe, I think, and based on the numbers,

196
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Speaker 2: he's quite good going up against Lucaku definitely neutralizes the

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Speaker 2: one edge that Lucaku has over most center backs he

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Speaker 2: plays against. And I think he's just really struggling to

199
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Speaker 2: get into the flow and the rhythm of this Chelsea

200
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Speaker 2: team and the way they play under Twocle. So there's

201
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Speaker 2: just something off about Chelsea, and without Mount especially, I

202
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Speaker 2: just don't really trust them.

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Speaker 3: All right, Let's move on to the other match on

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Speaker 3: Tuesday via Real, they're plus one fifty five hosting Juventus,

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Speaker 3: coming back at plus two hundred. The drill here is

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Speaker 3: plus two fifteen. Juve is minus two twenty five to

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Speaker 3: advance via rel plus one sixty three. I think, just

208
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Speaker 3: like Chelsea, we're looking at another vulnerable favorite in Juventus,

209
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Speaker 3: and they're going up against a team in good form

210
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Speaker 3: Voreal four to a one win draw loss in their

211
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Speaker 3: last seven since January first in that spanch plus twelve

212
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Speaker 3: goal differential plus eight point seven to six expected goal differential.

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Speaker 3: So a team that was a little inconsistent in league

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Speaker 3: play through the first half of the season, they seem

215
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Speaker 3: to have got their act together and remain a dangerous

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Speaker 3: tournament team.

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Speaker 1: We've talked about it a.

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Speaker 3: Bunch with the Yellow Submarine under Unyamory. Not the type

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Speaker 3: of team you want to draw and get picked out

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Speaker 3: of the hat with just because they're they're well organized.

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Speaker 3: Everyone on that team knows what it takes to advance

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Speaker 3: in these one off knockout round fixtures. So tricky, tricky

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Speaker 3: matchup for Juventus, team that is not a great form,

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Speaker 3: just one win in their last four in Syria with

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Speaker 3: a negative zero point six to three expected gold differential.

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Speaker 1: So I like via Real.

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Speaker 3: I think I'll probably just end up splitting a stake

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Speaker 3: here between them to win on Tuesday plus to advance

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Speaker 3: plus one sixty three as well, and another team that

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Speaker 3: I think that if Juventus gets out of here, either

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Speaker 3: you know, one to one with a draw or with

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Speaker 3: a with a one goal win, I think via Real

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Speaker 3: are still very much in the tie, So keep an

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Speaker 3: eye out for that, BJA. Anything for you. You want

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Speaker 3: you coming on the yellow submarine with you.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Michael, I can't remember like a Champions League match

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Speaker 1: that I've loved more than this one. I can't get

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Speaker 1: over how good via Reale is right now there, we

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Speaker 1: got to start talking to them as basically one of

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Speaker 1: the best teams in Spain and maybe even Europe. And

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Speaker 1: given the form they're currently in plus one point one

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Speaker 1: seven expected goal differential per ninety over their last ten

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Speaker 1: matches and are averaging two point three expected goals for match,

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Speaker 1: those are unbelievably elite numbers. Even this past weekend they

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Speaker 1: beat Granada. I believe the final score ended up being

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Speaker 1: four to two or five to two, I can't remember

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Speaker 1: the exact one, but they created five point four expected goals. Now,

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Speaker 1: there were a couple penalties in there, but I think

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Speaker 1: that might be the highest expectable output of anybody across

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Speaker 1: Europe's top five leagues in any match this season. Now

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Speaker 1: they get to face a very very I wouldn't say,

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Speaker 1: you know, vulnerable Eventus team. I'd say they're just not

253
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Speaker 1: that good. Honestly. I know they've added dus on Lahovic.

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Speaker 1: That's great, but he's, like we've talked about many times,

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Speaker 1: he's drastically overperforming. And Juventus when they have to play

256
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Speaker 1: against good competition, they've obviously beat up pretty well on

257
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Speaker 1: the bottom half of the table in Syria. A if

258
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Speaker 1: you take matches against the top seven in Italy plus

259
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Speaker 1: their two Champions League matches against Chelsea Events has a

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Speaker 1: minus two point nine expected goal differential on the season.

261
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Speaker 1: So given they're going to be facing the hottest team

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Speaker 1: pretty much in all of Europe going to Spain coming

263
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Speaker 1: off of a turn Darby that they deserve to draw

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Speaker 1: with Torino, this is an unbelievable spot for via Real,

265
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Speaker 1: especially on the money line. John o'bett to advance everything,

266
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Speaker 1: give me everything. I might even put I think it

267
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Speaker 1: might be a little bit on Viril one hundred to

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Speaker 1: one to win the Champions League because they given the

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Speaker 1: form that they're in. I mean, I mean, you could say, oh, yeah,

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Speaker 1: you know, Man City or whoever can stop them, but man,

271
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Speaker 1: their offense is so so impressive right now. And you know,

272
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Speaker 1: even if we're just looking for the season purely, just

273
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Speaker 1: expect a goal differential vireal for the season is at

274
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Speaker 1: plus point five to seven per ninety events is at

275
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Speaker 1: plus point three eight and by you eighth coefficient. Spain

276
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Speaker 1: is a much much more difficult league than Italy. So

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Speaker 1: it is a little bit crazy to me that Vireal

278
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Speaker 1: is not just a even money minus one on five favorite.

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Speaker 1: You know, I have them projected minus one three. You

280
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Speaker 1: look at five thirty eight, they got Viril at fifty

281
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Speaker 1: four percent. So I love this yellow submarine. John O

282
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Speaker 1: Bett at minus one thirty and you know, obviously the

283
00:13:41,840 --> 00:13:43,720
Speaker 1: money line is good there and then to advance just

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Speaker 1: every everything on the Yellow Submarine right now, I want

285
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Speaker 1: to bet.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, if you recall a couple months ago someone on

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Speaker 3: this podcast, Yes, Michael, I also bet Virel one hundred

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Speaker 3: and one right now.

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Speaker 1: I love it. I love it.

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Speaker 3: If you're looking to get involved with the future, I

291
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Speaker 3: think that's the one to do.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

293
00:14:00,679 --> 00:14:03,319
Speaker 3: And like you said, this is you're getting a team

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Speaker 3: that we've we've talked about so often because of these

295
00:14:06,280 --> 00:14:10,120
Speaker 3: La Liga teams, their reputation Atletico Madrid via vi Areal

296
00:14:10,240 --> 00:14:12,600
Speaker 3: to just do so well, to punch above their weight

297
00:14:12,640 --> 00:14:14,680
Speaker 3: in these tournaments. And I don't even know if this

298
00:14:14,720 --> 00:14:17,000
Speaker 3: is punching above their weight, right now because they should

299
00:14:17,040 --> 00:14:17,480
Speaker 3: be favorite.

300
00:14:17,840 --> 00:14:19,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, like they should be a mist They should be

301
00:14:19,400 --> 00:14:22,080
Speaker 1: an even money favorite in this match, given given the

302
00:14:22,120 --> 00:14:24,360
Speaker 1: underlying metrics that we're seeing, there's no reason why they

303
00:14:24,360 --> 00:14:26,360
Speaker 1: shouldn't be even money favorites at home.

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00:14:26,680 --> 00:14:28,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think, Anthony, you could look at it this way, right, like,

305
00:14:28,800 --> 00:14:31,680
Speaker 3: if you switched the form guide of these two teams,

306
00:14:32,040 --> 00:14:34,520
Speaker 3: this number would be out of control on viareal. And

307
00:14:34,720 --> 00:14:38,080
Speaker 3: because Juventus has the name recognition and the kind of

308
00:14:38,080 --> 00:14:42,040
Speaker 3: the respect factor of their big club in Europe, where

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00:14:42,120 --> 00:14:45,040
Speaker 3: v a real aren't. I think that's why you're seeing

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Speaker 3: a number that isn't accurately priced right now. What do

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Speaker 3: you have for us? Though?

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00:14:50,200 --> 00:14:51,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, v Rail's taking a lot of money

313
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Speaker 2: in the market. They were opened as underdogs at home,

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Speaker 2: which I know I jumped on, and I think I

315
00:14:59,640 --> 00:15:03,240
Speaker 2: think we talked about this when the first draw came

316
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Speaker 2: out and we did our reactions, and at the time

317
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Speaker 2: I made Juventus minus one oh one. Now I do not.

318
00:15:10,440 --> 00:15:13,400
Speaker 2: I've got VI Rial as the better team, and so

319
00:15:13,440 --> 00:15:15,600
Speaker 2: I'm actually pretty surprised that the number is still plus

320
00:15:15,600 --> 00:15:19,560
Speaker 2: one sixty two advance. I would absolutely bet that right now.

321
00:15:20,160 --> 00:15:22,160
Speaker 2: I liked them in this leg as well. I think

322
00:15:22,560 --> 00:15:27,040
Speaker 2: the Vlahovic narratives have already gone haywire after one match.

323
00:15:27,440 --> 00:15:31,560
Speaker 2: He's played three matches, scored on his debut against Verona,

324
00:15:32,160 --> 00:15:34,400
Speaker 2: had four shots in that match, had seven shots, but

325
00:15:34,480 --> 00:15:37,880
Speaker 2: I only point three expected goals against Atalanta. A lot

326
00:15:37,880 --> 00:15:41,080
Speaker 2: of low quality looks for Vlahovich. He was pretty bottled

327
00:15:41,120 --> 00:15:43,400
Speaker 2: up by Atalanta, and then he only had one shot

328
00:15:43,680 --> 00:15:46,360
Speaker 2: in the entire match against Torino. So now he's played

329
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Speaker 2: three matches, he has one expected goal, he has one goal.

330
00:15:48,960 --> 00:15:52,280
Speaker 2: It's fine, no reason to panic, But I think people

331
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Speaker 2: expected him to just come burst onto the scene and

332
00:15:54,600 --> 00:15:56,600
Speaker 2: continue to dominate the league like he was before, and

333
00:15:56,640 --> 00:15:59,360
Speaker 2: it's just really not the case. BJ mentioned it, and

334
00:15:59,360 --> 00:16:01,640
Speaker 2: I think it kind puts into perspective Spain is a

335
00:16:01,680 --> 00:16:03,720
Speaker 2: much better league than Italy. I think the coefficients are

336
00:16:03,720 --> 00:16:06,560
Speaker 2: even wrong in the sense they don't really get far

337
00:16:06,680 --> 00:16:09,400
Speaker 2: enough to saying how much better Spain is than Italy

338
00:16:09,520 --> 00:16:11,280
Speaker 2: right now. If you look across the board at Italy's

339
00:16:11,280 --> 00:16:15,200
Speaker 2: European performances, inter has been good. At Atlanta, they able

340
00:16:15,240 --> 00:16:17,680
Speaker 2: to qualify in the same group, had a worse expected

341
00:16:17,680 --> 00:16:21,720
Speaker 2: goal difference than Virial really struggled against young boys, and

342
00:16:22,080 --> 00:16:25,440
Speaker 2: so you know, question marks about Atlanta. You look down further.

343
00:16:25,680 --> 00:16:29,040
Speaker 2: Roma had a couple embarrassing losses in the Europa Conference League.

344
00:16:29,200 --> 00:16:33,000
Speaker 2: Not great. You go down to Milan, thrashed pretty much

345
00:16:33,000 --> 00:16:36,720
Speaker 2: every match in the Champions League, struggled mightily. Napoli was fine,

346
00:16:37,560 --> 00:16:40,480
Speaker 2: and Juventus the only you know, they played what I

347
00:16:40,480 --> 00:16:43,040
Speaker 2: would consider three difficult matches in their group. They lost

348
00:16:43,040 --> 00:16:45,320
Speaker 2: the expected goals or about even in all of them.

349
00:16:45,560 --> 00:16:47,720
Speaker 2: The Chelsea match they were fortunate to win one nail.

350
00:16:47,720 --> 00:16:49,480
Speaker 2: They got thrashed at the Stanford Bridge, and then they

351
00:16:49,520 --> 00:16:52,000
Speaker 2: went to Zenate and needed a late winner on the road.

352
00:16:52,280 --> 00:16:54,680
Speaker 2: So I just don't really get the hype train on

353
00:16:54,680 --> 00:16:57,520
Speaker 2: this Uve team either, and so I'm happy to play

354
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Speaker 2: virial So it's my favorite play of the first of

355
00:17:01,360 --> 00:17:01,880
Speaker 2: these four.

356
00:17:02,560 --> 00:17:07,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, no Chiolini, no Chiasa and potentially no Venucci

357
00:17:07,600 --> 00:17:08,560
Speaker 1: for Juventus, so.

358
00:17:08,520 --> 00:17:10,560
Speaker 2: I believe Debaala is questionable as well.

359
00:17:10,600 --> 00:17:12,840
Speaker 1: Also, yeah, I think he picked up a knock against

360
00:17:12,840 --> 00:17:15,119
Speaker 1: Tarino as well, So it's going to be you know,

361
00:17:15,240 --> 00:17:18,240
Speaker 1: Vlahovic and Maratza probably up top. They're probably going to

362
00:17:18,280 --> 00:17:20,520
Speaker 1: play a four to four to two. The Arel is

363
00:17:20,680 --> 00:17:22,840
Speaker 1: very very good at mixing. Emory's done a great job

364
00:17:22,880 --> 00:17:24,520
Speaker 1: of mixing his tactics. He can play a four to

365
00:17:24,560 --> 00:17:26,560
Speaker 1: four two with with the Arel, or he can switch

366
00:17:26,560 --> 00:17:28,720
Speaker 1: to a four three three and become the more possession

367
00:17:28,760 --> 00:17:31,679
Speaker 1: dominant side and try to overwhelm Juventus. So it'll be interesting.

368
00:17:31,680 --> 00:17:33,679
Speaker 1: Don't be surprised if the Arel is actually the more

369
00:17:33,720 --> 00:17:37,000
Speaker 1: possession dominant side. And obviously we expect them to win

370
00:17:37,040 --> 00:17:38,960
Speaker 1: and win the expected goals battle because that's why we're

371
00:17:38,960 --> 00:17:41,120
Speaker 1: betting on them, but it might be a very, very

372
00:17:41,119 --> 00:17:43,680
Speaker 1: dominating performance from the l Submarine.

373
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Speaker 2: I also expect a Legur to make this the worst

374
00:17:45,680 --> 00:17:49,160
Speaker 2: football match you've ever considered watching. Yeah, that's just that's

375
00:17:49,160 --> 00:17:51,240
Speaker 2: just what I expect from my Legree on the road

376
00:17:51,520 --> 00:17:54,480
Speaker 2: first leg, it could get ugly. Probably Docu the most

377
00:17:54,480 --> 00:17:56,800
Speaker 2: exciting watch. I don't think Chelsea Leal will be either.

378
00:17:57,600 --> 00:17:59,479
Speaker 2: I think, you know, Wednesday has the potential for more

379
00:17:59,480 --> 00:18:03,520
Speaker 2: fireworks we look at the slate, but generally, yeah, I'm

380
00:18:03,560 --> 00:18:05,159
Speaker 2: just not buying as Uve a team, and I'm going

381
00:18:05,200 --> 00:18:07,240
Speaker 2: to keep not buying them until they prove me otherwise.

382
00:18:07,280 --> 00:18:09,280
Speaker 2: And I doubt that's going to happen in the final

383
00:18:09,280 --> 00:18:10,720
Speaker 2: fifteen matches or so of the season.

384
00:18:11,280 --> 00:18:14,640
Speaker 3: You said it probably more fireworks on Wednesday. So let's

385
00:18:14,640 --> 00:18:17,520
Speaker 3: take a look at those matches, a really interesting one

386
00:18:17,680 --> 00:18:20,080
Speaker 3: and one. Then I've gone back and forth on since

387
00:18:20,119 --> 00:18:24,440
Speaker 3: we spoke in December with Athletico Madrid and Manchester United.

388
00:18:24,480 --> 00:18:26,760
Speaker 3: So we'll start there at Letti plus one forty at

389
00:18:26,800 --> 00:18:29,640
Speaker 3: home United plus two twenty on the road. The draw

390
00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:33,200
Speaker 3: here is plus two to fifteen United under Ralph Ragnik

391
00:18:33,720 --> 00:18:36,000
Speaker 3: seven to four to one win draw loss plus ten

392
00:18:36,000 --> 00:18:38,400
Speaker 3: goal differentially. This is just Premier League and their expectacle

393
00:18:38,440 --> 00:18:41,680
Speaker 3: differential is right there as well. However, you might want

394
00:18:41,680 --> 00:18:44,200
Speaker 3: to pump the brakes a little bit. Wolves and west Ham.

395
00:18:44,280 --> 00:18:47,200
Speaker 3: I think you would say we're the two toughest opponents

396
00:18:47,200 --> 00:18:50,160
Speaker 3: in that stretch, and you know, like even today against

397
00:18:50,240 --> 00:18:53,200
Speaker 3: Leeds they just seem to turn off for a little bit,

398
00:18:53,680 --> 00:18:56,280
Speaker 3: and you can't do that against Atletico Madrid. Letico Madrid,

399
00:18:56,600 --> 00:18:58,359
Speaker 3: as we were talking about with Via Real, this is

400
00:18:58,400 --> 00:19:00,760
Speaker 3: a team that can win in the big moments and

401
00:19:00,920 --> 00:19:04,639
Speaker 3: in a tournament knockout round game, that's really all you

402
00:19:04,680 --> 00:19:07,320
Speaker 3: need to do. Diego Simioni will have his team ready

403
00:19:07,359 --> 00:19:09,480
Speaker 3: for that. They'll be ready to pounce on any mistate

404
00:19:09,480 --> 00:19:11,320
Speaker 3: from Manchester United, and if there's one thing you can

405
00:19:11,359 --> 00:19:14,840
Speaker 3: count on in this fixture, United will make a mistake,

406
00:19:15,200 --> 00:19:18,000
Speaker 3: and if Atletico puts one in the back of the net,

407
00:19:18,040 --> 00:19:20,240
Speaker 3: you do trust their defense to make that mistake count.

408
00:19:20,560 --> 00:19:23,760
Speaker 3: Manchester United's offense, though they are creating some good scoring chances.

409
00:19:23,880 --> 00:19:24,960
Speaker 2: They've created over.

410
00:19:24,840 --> 00:19:27,760
Speaker 3: Two point six expected goals in their last three matches.

411
00:19:27,800 --> 00:19:30,960
Speaker 3: Once again, the opposition is in all that much to

412
00:19:31,000 --> 00:19:33,480
Speaker 3: write home about. So I want to see where this

413
00:19:33,560 --> 00:19:35,560
Speaker 3: number moves because I would be a little bit more

414
00:19:35,600 --> 00:19:38,399
Speaker 3: interested in Atleti if it does move up a little bit,

415
00:19:38,440 --> 00:19:40,800
Speaker 3: and I think it might because United has started to

416
00:19:40,840 --> 00:19:43,359
Speaker 3: at least write the ship a little bit under ragged

417
00:19:43,359 --> 00:19:48,840
Speaker 3: a couple inspiring performances over the last week or so. However,

418
00:19:48,920 --> 00:19:51,320
Speaker 3: right now I'm just going to pass and maybe watch

419
00:19:51,400 --> 00:19:53,800
Speaker 3: could be a fun one to live bet as well, Anthony,

420
00:19:54,080 --> 00:19:56,080
Speaker 3: what do you have to say for your boys? A

421
00:19:56,080 --> 00:19:59,400
Speaker 3: team that you backed. You backed Manchester United before Champions

422
00:19:59,480 --> 00:20:02,840
Speaker 3: League started as a potential future. That's a different team

423
00:20:02,880 --> 00:20:05,400
Speaker 3: that we're talking about now. Do you feel more confident

424
00:20:05,400 --> 00:20:08,560
Speaker 3: in this kind of group than you did in when

425
00:20:08,560 --> 00:20:09,439
Speaker 3: you place that bet?

426
00:20:09,520 --> 00:20:11,240
Speaker 2: Well, you know, if we go back to the show.

427
00:20:11,880 --> 00:20:13,959
Speaker 2: One thing that I said was that I thought, oh,

428
00:20:14,040 --> 00:20:16,360
Speaker 2: they would be fired and they would they would hire

429
00:20:16,359 --> 00:20:18,680
Speaker 2: a better manager. I thought it, you know, I didn't

430
00:20:18,680 --> 00:20:20,280
Speaker 2: think it'd be Ralph Ragnick. I wasn't sure where they

431
00:20:20,320 --> 00:20:22,160
Speaker 2: would go in that direction. You know, if they had

432
00:20:22,200 --> 00:20:24,880
Speaker 2: lost El Saki Co to Tottenham, we could be having

433
00:20:24,920 --> 00:20:27,440
Speaker 2: a whole different conversation about how Antonio Conte is the

434
00:20:27,560 --> 00:20:30,639
Speaker 2: United manager. And they actually signed a couple of midfielders

435
00:20:30,680 --> 00:20:33,280
Speaker 2: in January, and then we're like, oh, you know, can

436
00:20:33,400 --> 00:20:35,720
Speaker 2: United actually win this thing? I don't think they're there,

437
00:20:36,440 --> 00:20:39,679
Speaker 2: and I don't love my position. I'm kind of just

438
00:20:40,320 --> 00:20:41,720
Speaker 2: you know, we'll see how far we get. Maybe we

439
00:20:41,760 --> 00:20:44,359
Speaker 2: get like a quarterfinal matchup against PSG or something, if

440
00:20:44,400 --> 00:20:46,840
Speaker 2: they get through here. I know Bja shaking his head

441
00:20:46,840 --> 00:20:49,120
Speaker 2: because he doesn't think they're getting through here. I think

442
00:20:49,240 --> 00:20:51,600
Speaker 2: there's been a change with United when you watch them play,

443
00:20:51,880 --> 00:20:54,199
Speaker 2: just the idea that they put Jayden Sancho on the

444
00:20:54,240 --> 00:20:57,320
Speaker 2: field makes them better, and he's so good at progressing

445
00:20:57,359 --> 00:20:59,600
Speaker 2: the ball. You know, it's biggest problem. They couldn't get

446
00:20:59,600 --> 00:21:02,159
Speaker 2: the ball from the defense to the attack because they

447
00:21:02,200 --> 00:21:04,480
Speaker 2: have no midfielders. Well, Fred is playing better than I

448
00:21:04,520 --> 00:21:06,679
Speaker 2: think I've ever seen him play since Ragnick's come in.

449
00:21:07,320 --> 00:21:10,440
Speaker 2: Sancho is Sancho. We know he's excellent, and even today

450
00:21:10,480 --> 00:21:13,359
Speaker 2: against Leeds was I thought the best player on the

451
00:21:13,359 --> 00:21:17,200
Speaker 2: pitch for either team. Rinaldo has fallen off a bit

452
00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:20,040
Speaker 2: and that's a major red flag for this matchup. But again,

453
00:21:20,359 --> 00:21:23,320
Speaker 2: it's not like a Leti has this monster pressing forward

454
00:21:23,359 --> 00:21:26,399
Speaker 2: on the other end either, so I think it becomes

455
00:21:26,440 --> 00:21:28,960
Speaker 2: a very interesting situation where both teams are kind of

456
00:21:29,000 --> 00:21:32,960
Speaker 2: playing with ten without the ball, and that could actually

457
00:21:33,040 --> 00:21:35,720
Speaker 2: open this game up more than you'd expect from an

458
00:21:35,760 --> 00:21:39,879
Speaker 2: Atletico Madrid Champions League match. I don't think United is

459
00:21:39,920 --> 00:21:41,840
Speaker 2: good enough defensively to play without the ball, so I

460
00:21:41,880 --> 00:21:43,879
Speaker 2: think they're going to press, and that will make them

461
00:21:43,960 --> 00:21:46,880
Speaker 2: vulnerable when at Leti goes forward and when a Leti

462
00:21:47,000 --> 00:21:49,639
Speaker 2: is able to break on the counter like I'm definitely

463
00:21:49,640 --> 00:21:51,960
Speaker 2: concerned about that for United here. I don't have a

464
00:21:51,960 --> 00:21:53,679
Speaker 2: position on the game. I'm passing. This is the one

465
00:21:53,760 --> 00:21:56,280
Speaker 2: match I really don't have a great read on, but

466
00:21:56,400 --> 00:21:59,440
Speaker 2: I think generally I like United overall to advance over

467
00:21:59,440 --> 00:22:01,240
Speaker 2: the two legs because I think they have way more

468
00:22:01,680 --> 00:22:05,920
Speaker 2: general attacking talent, but again betting against Simeone in February.

469
00:22:06,240 --> 00:22:09,120
Speaker 2: The Champions League has been a dangerous proposition for many

470
00:22:09,320 --> 00:22:10,600
Speaker 2: people who have tried to do it before.

471
00:22:10,880 --> 00:22:14,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, I almost think that it's if you're going to back,

472
00:22:14,880 --> 00:22:18,360
Speaker 3: if you're interested in Atletico Madrid. The forty to one

473
00:22:18,720 --> 00:22:23,040
Speaker 3: future is interesting just because, as we've said now six

474
00:22:23,080 --> 00:22:25,680
Speaker 3: times already on this episode, they are a really tough

475
00:22:25,680 --> 00:22:28,600
Speaker 3: team to beat in a tournament. Diego Simioni is a

476
00:22:28,640 --> 00:22:30,720
Speaker 3: master at this kind of stuff, and if they get

477
00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:35,240
Speaker 3: through this tricky tie with United, their number will slash obviously,

478
00:22:35,240 --> 00:22:37,520
Speaker 3: as long as they don't draw someone like you know,

479
00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:40,080
Speaker 3: Byron or City in the next round, which of course

480
00:22:40,119 --> 00:22:43,199
Speaker 3: as possible. But they remain a very intriguing team to me.

481
00:22:43,280 --> 00:22:45,760
Speaker 3: I just don't think that I have it in made

482
00:22:45,840 --> 00:22:48,600
Speaker 3: to back them at this number. I guess United a

483
00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:51,359
Speaker 3: United team that I'm just having trouble figuring out right

484
00:22:51,359 --> 00:22:54,440
Speaker 3: now under Ragnik BJ you've been shaking your head throughout

485
00:22:54,440 --> 00:22:57,280
Speaker 3: this entire conversation. You are a man of IOWA, but

486
00:22:57,320 --> 00:22:59,439
Speaker 3: you are also a man of Atletico Madrid. You love

487
00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:01,680
Speaker 3: this team, like, are you backing them again?

488
00:23:01,920 --> 00:23:06,000
Speaker 1: Absolutely? I'll be honest, I do not think Manchester United

489
00:23:06,280 --> 00:23:09,560
Speaker 1: is really you know, obviously we've been talking quite a

490
00:23:09,560 --> 00:23:12,159
Speaker 1: bit about how easy their schedule has been. You know,

491
00:23:12,240 --> 00:23:15,240
Speaker 1: they look obviously looked great against Leeds today. I am

492
00:23:15,280 --> 00:23:18,880
Speaker 1: really not buying them as a not only to get

493
00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:21,679
Speaker 1: through this one, as a top four contender, as really

494
00:23:21,760 --> 00:23:23,960
Speaker 1: even I don't even know how to describe it. I

495
00:23:23,960 --> 00:23:25,920
Speaker 1: don't know how to describe Manchester United right now. I

496
00:23:25,960 --> 00:23:27,720
Speaker 1: don't feel like they're a very good team, but at

497
00:23:27,760 --> 00:23:30,119
Speaker 1: the same time, they obviously have all the talent there

498
00:23:30,200 --> 00:23:33,280
Speaker 1: to be a good team this type of matchup, though,

499
00:23:33,280 --> 00:23:35,760
Speaker 1: I'm very happy to take Athletico plus one forty on

500
00:23:35,760 --> 00:23:38,679
Speaker 1: the money line in this first leg, because yeah, Athletico,

501
00:23:38,720 --> 00:23:41,399
Speaker 1: they've been in weird form throughout you know, since the

502
00:23:41,480 --> 00:23:45,160
Speaker 1: Champions League ended, but their underlying metrics are very very impressive.

503
00:23:45,200 --> 00:23:47,879
Speaker 1: Overall for the season, they're at plus point five to

504
00:23:47,920 --> 00:23:52,040
Speaker 1: three expected gold differential per ninety minutes, while United overall

505
00:23:52,080 --> 00:23:54,600
Speaker 1: for the season is at plus point one point one.

506
00:23:54,720 --> 00:23:57,040
Speaker 1: You no, obviously, the whole first half of the season

507
00:23:57,119 --> 00:23:58,639
Speaker 1: was under all gunny suls shower and they weren't in

508
00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:00,520
Speaker 1: the right form, but still over off of the season,

509
00:24:00,560 --> 00:24:03,359
Speaker 1: Athletics underlying metrics have been much better than United and

510
00:24:03,520 --> 00:24:06,000
Speaker 1: Spain and England. Obviously England's a little bit better of

511
00:24:06,040 --> 00:24:07,960
Speaker 1: a league in Spain, but it's not like this huge

512
00:24:07,960 --> 00:24:11,159
Speaker 1: gap in terms of the talent level I think it is.

513
00:24:11,680 --> 00:24:16,600
Speaker 1: It's not. It's actually closer than you think. So, you know,

514
00:24:16,680 --> 00:24:19,320
Speaker 1: Athletico their defense is obviously, you know, once again playing

515
00:24:19,320 --> 00:24:22,080
Speaker 1: an elite level. Only point eighty six actually allowed per

516
00:24:22,160 --> 00:24:25,120
Speaker 1: ninety and they've actually been playing a pretty difficult schedule

517
00:24:25,520 --> 00:24:27,560
Speaker 1: since the Champions League ended. They've had to play Real

518
00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:31,880
Speaker 1: Madrid Barcelona so via Real sociate at Vireal Athletic Bilbao.

519
00:24:32,359 --> 00:24:35,280
Speaker 1: It's they've had that benefit of being tested over and

520
00:24:35,320 --> 00:24:37,640
Speaker 1: over weeke in and week out, and through that whole

521
00:24:37,640 --> 00:24:40,280
Speaker 1: difficult schedule they have a plus four point three expected

522
00:24:40,280 --> 00:24:42,879
Speaker 1: gol diffrench which is very impressive. The same cannot be

523
00:24:42,920 --> 00:24:45,760
Speaker 1: said about United. Like you mentioned, Michael, the most difficult

524
00:24:45,760 --> 00:24:48,320
Speaker 1: team they've played probably is West Ham That's the only

525
00:24:48,359 --> 00:24:52,040
Speaker 1: team they've played inside the top seven in England. Now

526
00:24:52,240 --> 00:24:54,160
Speaker 1: under Ragnik, they have a plus around a plus point

527
00:24:54,200 --> 00:24:57,439
Speaker 1: seven expected old differential per ninety minutes and that's you know,

528
00:24:57,440 --> 00:24:59,760
Speaker 1: that's top four level type stuff. But when you're not

529
00:24:59,760 --> 00:25:02,280
Speaker 1: get tested week in and week out. You know, it's

530
00:25:02,280 --> 00:25:03,879
Speaker 1: easy to sit here and say that, oh my gosh,

531
00:25:03,880 --> 00:25:06,520
Speaker 1: man United's back. They look so much better under Ragney.

532
00:25:06,600 --> 00:25:09,040
Speaker 1: That's great. You know, their passes per defensive action right

533
00:25:09,040 --> 00:25:11,040
Speaker 1: now is at ten point two. That's really, really good.

534
00:25:11,160 --> 00:25:13,120
Speaker 1: You know, that's a big time improvement on our old

535
00:25:13,119 --> 00:25:16,040
Speaker 1: Gunny soul Shore. But Athletico they're top five in Spain

536
00:25:16,119 --> 00:25:18,159
Speaker 1: at playing through pressure, and I do think they'll be

537
00:25:18,200 --> 00:25:20,560
Speaker 1: able to hurt United quite a bit on the counter.

538
00:25:20,720 --> 00:25:25,119
Speaker 1: And they're fine letting United come forward, let mctoumanay and

539
00:25:25,160 --> 00:25:28,639
Speaker 1: Fred commit too far forward, and then boom, they get

540
00:25:28,720 --> 00:25:31,320
Speaker 1: hit on the counter and they leave McGuire on an island,

541
00:25:31,600 --> 00:25:35,320
Speaker 1: and suddenly Luis Suarez Ohgio Felix are putting the ball

542
00:25:35,359 --> 00:25:36,879
Speaker 1: in the back of the net and Athletico is up

543
00:25:36,880 --> 00:25:40,360
Speaker 1: to nothing, and Ronaldo's shaking his head like what's going on.

544
00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:44,480
Speaker 1: I have Lethletico projected at minus one thirty six. I

545
00:25:44,520 --> 00:25:46,639
Speaker 1: think that this is a fantastic spot for them here

546
00:25:46,640 --> 00:25:48,639
Speaker 1: in the first leg, to get all three points. I

547
00:25:48,680 --> 00:25:50,560
Speaker 1: assume they're gonna go They're gonna go for it here

548
00:25:50,560 --> 00:25:52,320
Speaker 1: in the first leg. I don't know why they wouldn't.

549
00:25:53,400 --> 00:25:55,560
Speaker 1: It could be a different story if Athletico is on

550
00:25:55,560 --> 00:25:57,480
Speaker 1: the road in this first leg. But I love the

551
00:25:57,520 --> 00:25:59,280
Speaker 1: price at plus one forty because I don't think this

552
00:25:59,359 --> 00:26:03,080
Speaker 1: match United team should be even talked with the elites

553
00:26:03,080 --> 00:26:04,080
Speaker 1: of Europe right now.

554
00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:07,280
Speaker 2: When you compare what they did in this recent stretch

555
00:26:07,880 --> 00:26:11,159
Speaker 2: to what they did in the first ten Ish games

556
00:26:11,160 --> 00:26:13,680
Speaker 2: of the season when they played a very similarly weak schedule,

557
00:26:14,040 --> 00:26:18,600
Speaker 2: sneaking by West Ham, sneaking by against you know other

558
00:26:18,680 --> 00:26:22,679
Speaker 2: teams they played Southampton, they struggled, you know, barely beating

559
00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:25,680
Speaker 2: you know, other teams in the top you know ten

560
00:26:25,840 --> 00:26:27,920
Speaker 2: Ish where you're like, okay, why are they struggling here

561
00:26:27,960 --> 00:26:31,199
Speaker 2: against Norwich or why are they barely getting by Team X?

562
00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:33,800
Speaker 2: You know, Okay, that's one thing, but you compare that

563
00:26:33,840 --> 00:26:35,679
Speaker 2: those numbers where they were like even an expected goal

564
00:26:35,720 --> 00:26:37,560
Speaker 2: difference to you just said it, they're plus point seven

565
00:26:37,640 --> 00:26:40,600
Speaker 2: per ninety now. So I just like the fact that

566
00:26:41,200 --> 00:26:42,680
Speaker 2: Sancho is in the team, and I think that makes

567
00:26:42,680 --> 00:26:45,600
Speaker 2: a huge difference here. So we will see we are

568
00:26:45,600 --> 00:26:47,680
Speaker 2: on opposite sides here. I'm not actually betting the match,

569
00:26:47,720 --> 00:26:50,400
Speaker 2: so I guess technically we're not. But for my United future,

570
00:26:50,520 --> 00:26:52,760
Speaker 2: which has almost no hope. I'm going to dream on

571
00:26:53,359 --> 00:26:54,000
Speaker 2: Manchester United.

572
00:26:54,040 --> 00:26:54,760
Speaker 1: They're a roller coaster.

573
00:26:54,840 --> 00:26:56,720
Speaker 3: Roller coasters insinuate you go up and down.

574
00:26:56,760 --> 00:26:57,520
Speaker 2: It's a wild ride.

575
00:26:57,760 --> 00:26:58,240
Speaker 1: I X.

576
00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:00,639
Speaker 3: They're not a roller coaster. They only go one direction,

577
00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:04,680
Speaker 3: that's full speed ahead. And they are taking on Benfica

578
00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:08,440
Speaker 3: Benficas plus three ten, hosting i X minus one fifteen

579
00:27:08,480 --> 00:27:11,680
Speaker 3: the truss plus two to seventy five. Here's the question, right,

580
00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:14,000
Speaker 3: we love this team BJ. You're wearing an IX jersey.

581
00:27:14,000 --> 00:27:17,800
Speaker 3: It's beautiful. We all back them before the tournament started.

582
00:27:18,160 --> 00:27:21,679
Speaker 3: They just absolutely smashed through the group stage.

583
00:27:21,960 --> 00:27:24,840
Speaker 1: Odds on should they be odds on in this?

584
00:27:25,040 --> 00:27:27,600
Speaker 3: In this like, I mean there mnus four hundred to

585
00:27:27,720 --> 00:27:30,600
Speaker 3: advance ben Ficus plus two seventy five. The market is

586
00:27:30,640 --> 00:27:33,440
Speaker 3: probably too high on this team. But at the same time,

587
00:27:33,920 --> 00:27:36,520
Speaker 3: have they earned that right? Like there you can both things,

588
00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:39,320
Speaker 3: I guess can be true. At the same time, I'm

589
00:27:39,359 --> 00:27:43,000
Speaker 3: probably gonna be passing on this game. Riding the IX Future.

590
00:27:43,359 --> 00:27:45,520
Speaker 3: I still think that if you're gonna just if you

591
00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:46,879
Speaker 3: just want to sit back, put your feet up and

592
00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:49,919
Speaker 3: enjoy a show, by all means, by high on this

593
00:27:50,000 --> 00:27:52,600
Speaker 3: team and still bet them, because They're just so much

594
00:27:52,600 --> 00:27:55,200
Speaker 3: fun to watch. But I just think the number is

595
00:27:55,200 --> 00:27:58,200
Speaker 3: a little outrageous. Here BJ anything for you.

596
00:27:58,560 --> 00:28:01,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's scary laying that number on the road against Benefica.

597
00:28:01,880 --> 00:28:04,000
Speaker 1: And listen, we could sit here and I could say, hey,

598
00:28:04,040 --> 00:28:06,840
Speaker 1: I'm scared to do that, and I wouldn't blame anybody

599
00:28:06,880 --> 00:28:08,600
Speaker 1: if they went out and laid minus one twenty on

600
00:28:08,680 --> 00:28:10,800
Speaker 1: IAX and IX went and just whipped them for nothing

601
00:28:11,000 --> 00:28:12,760
Speaker 1: like I would. That wouldn't shock me at all, and

602
00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:14,639
Speaker 1: I'd say, all right, that's cool, like and we'd all

603
00:28:14,680 --> 00:28:18,760
Speaker 1: move on Benefica. It's very interesting. They obviously got pummeled

604
00:28:18,760 --> 00:28:20,920
Speaker 1: by Byron in the group stage, but they've had two

605
00:28:20,920 --> 00:28:26,000
Speaker 1: really good performances against against Barcelona and in the Portuguese

606
00:28:26,119 --> 00:28:28,920
Speaker 1: you know, First Division, which is the sixth best league

607
00:28:28,920 --> 00:28:30,920
Speaker 1: in Europe. They have a you know, around a plus

608
00:28:31,000 --> 00:28:33,399
Speaker 1: thirty two expect a gold differentially. Now i AX is

609
00:28:33,440 --> 00:28:34,840
Speaker 1: just out of this world in the area to b say.

610
00:28:34,840 --> 00:28:38,240
Speaker 1: They're at like plus forty five expected gold differential. So

611
00:28:38,360 --> 00:28:42,040
Speaker 1: obviously they're the rightfully favored side in this one. But

612
00:28:42,120 --> 00:28:43,800
Speaker 1: it's a little too high, and I think it's not

613
00:28:43,960 --> 00:28:46,600
Speaker 1: even gonna get higher by match time. So if you're

614
00:28:46,640 --> 00:28:49,360
Speaker 1: wanting to play Benefica and jump out in front of

615
00:28:49,360 --> 00:28:51,440
Speaker 1: the train. I would wait on this number because I

616
00:28:51,480 --> 00:28:53,520
Speaker 1: wouldn't be surprised if i X got to like minus

617
00:28:53,560 --> 00:28:57,400
Speaker 1: one fifty minus one sixty here by match time. But

618
00:28:57,440 --> 00:29:00,000
Speaker 1: it's a good Benefica team. It's a solid Benefica team.

619
00:29:00,200 --> 00:29:02,520
Speaker 1: They have experience, unlike some of the other sides that

620
00:29:02,560 --> 00:29:04,880
Speaker 1: have come through, like we saw with Sporting, who doesn't

621
00:29:04,880 --> 00:29:07,440
Speaker 1: really have the experience to go throughout this stage. Obviously,

622
00:29:07,760 --> 00:29:11,560
Speaker 1: you know Vertongan on Automendi or the defensive center back

623
00:29:11,600 --> 00:29:14,760
Speaker 1: pairing for Benefica, they have some experienced strikers who have

624
00:29:14,880 --> 00:29:16,920
Speaker 1: you know, obviously played in the Euros this year. It's

625
00:29:16,960 --> 00:29:19,800
Speaker 1: a good team, and I think that the market is

626
00:29:20,160 --> 00:29:22,720
Speaker 1: kind of overreacting a little bit to the i AX performance.

627
00:29:22,760 --> 00:29:25,160
Speaker 1: But then again, it was incredibly depressive, so like, what

628
00:29:25,200 --> 00:29:27,800
Speaker 1: else is the market supposed to do? So I'm with you,

629
00:29:27,840 --> 00:29:30,360
Speaker 1: I'm ultimately passing. I'm just gonna put my feet up

630
00:29:30,480 --> 00:29:32,840
Speaker 1: and enjoy the IX show and they'll probably pummel them

631
00:29:32,840 --> 00:29:35,800
Speaker 1: three nothing. But yeah, the price is a little too

632
00:29:35,880 --> 00:29:38,320
Speaker 1: high on IAX right now, Anthony, what do you think.

633
00:29:38,680 --> 00:29:40,960
Speaker 2: I'm glad BJ will not be doubting me because I

634
00:29:41,000 --> 00:29:44,240
Speaker 2: am absolutely backing i AX here, and he's right. The number.

635
00:29:44,320 --> 00:29:47,240
Speaker 2: The number has has gotten a little crazy. They open

636
00:29:47,240 --> 00:29:49,440
Speaker 2: plus one ten here, they're now up to minus one fifteen.

637
00:29:49,440 --> 00:29:52,440
Speaker 2: I would not go past that minus one fifteen, minus

638
00:29:52,440 --> 00:29:54,520
Speaker 2: one twenty. Once you get past that, no value in

639
00:29:54,520 --> 00:29:56,080
Speaker 2: the number anymore. And in the end of the day,

640
00:29:56,080 --> 00:29:58,360
Speaker 2: we do play numbers, but boy do they make me

641
00:29:58,600 --> 00:30:01,080
Speaker 2: make me happy when I watch them. You mentioned one

642
00:30:01,080 --> 00:30:02,600
Speaker 2: thing that I think is really interesting here, and that's

643
00:30:02,600 --> 00:30:06,200
Speaker 2: that Vertan and Odemendi are the two center backs for Benfica.

644
00:30:06,520 --> 00:30:09,480
Speaker 2: They are both old, and I think that's a major

645
00:30:09,760 --> 00:30:13,360
Speaker 2: issue when you're going up against this IX team who

646
00:30:13,400 --> 00:30:15,680
Speaker 2: is full of energy, full of youth, full of guys

647
00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:19,160
Speaker 2: who were excellent one on one, but also technically gifted

648
00:30:19,160 --> 00:30:22,400
Speaker 2: players who can pass through any back line in the world.

649
00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:27,080
Speaker 2: And this i X attack second best in the entire

650
00:30:27,080 --> 00:30:30,840
Speaker 2: group stage in terms of production, behind only Bayern Munich. Now,

651
00:30:30,840 --> 00:30:33,080
Speaker 2: they didn't play in the toughest group, but they did

652
00:30:33,120 --> 00:30:36,440
Speaker 2: play two games against a team who is also Portuguese,

653
00:30:36,960 --> 00:30:40,280
Speaker 2: and neither of those games were remotely competitive. Right, So

654
00:30:40,400 --> 00:30:43,880
Speaker 2: IAX went and in the first match against Sporting it

655
00:30:43,920 --> 00:30:45,959
Speaker 2: was three point eight expected goals two point five. They

656
00:30:45,960 --> 00:30:47,880
Speaker 2: won the match five to one, and then in the

657
00:30:47,920 --> 00:30:49,800
Speaker 2: second match, I X kind of had their foot on

658
00:30:49,840 --> 00:30:52,480
Speaker 2: the Handbrake only won the expected goals two point two

659
00:30:52,520 --> 00:30:55,160
Speaker 2: to one and only one four to two in a

660
00:30:55,200 --> 00:30:57,440
Speaker 2: match they didn't need. They had already cleaned up and

661
00:30:57,440 --> 00:30:59,760
Speaker 2: and won the group by then. When we look at Benfica,

662
00:31:00,040 --> 00:31:01,680
Speaker 2: you know, I mentioned this on last week's show we

663
00:31:01,680 --> 00:31:03,560
Speaker 2: were talking about Sporting and while I was pretty concerned

664
00:31:03,600 --> 00:31:05,880
Speaker 2: about them, they have a negative expected goal difference in

665
00:31:05,920 --> 00:31:08,720
Speaker 2: the group. And yes they had some decent performances against Barcelona,

666
00:31:09,080 --> 00:31:11,680
Speaker 2: but what we know is that was the Barcelona who

667
00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:13,600
Speaker 2: was a bit of a mess. They had a bunch

668
00:31:13,640 --> 00:31:16,360
Speaker 2: of injuries at the time, they were not in good form.

669
00:31:16,400 --> 00:31:18,200
Speaker 2: They were, you know, Ronald kom was on his last

670
00:31:18,240 --> 00:31:21,000
Speaker 2: legs at the club. And then they played the last

671
00:31:21,040 --> 00:31:23,920
Speaker 2: match and it must win situation against Dinamo Kiev and

672
00:31:23,920 --> 00:31:26,240
Speaker 2: they won the match comfortably, but Keev missed an open

673
00:31:26,240 --> 00:31:28,600
Speaker 2: net on two separate occasions in the first half, and

674
00:31:28,720 --> 00:31:31,240
Speaker 2: really the expected goals battle was pretty even in that match.

675
00:31:31,280 --> 00:31:34,760
Speaker 2: So I am not a big believer in this Benfica team,

676
00:31:35,400 --> 00:31:37,000
Speaker 2: and so I think i AX is going to roll.

677
00:31:37,240 --> 00:31:39,320
Speaker 2: I think they're gonna they're gonna look to get this

678
00:31:39,400 --> 00:31:41,200
Speaker 2: done with and over in the first leg and win

679
00:31:41,240 --> 00:31:43,040
Speaker 2: by multiple goals on the road, and I think they

680
00:31:43,080 --> 00:31:45,760
Speaker 2: will do that. And if you really like IAX and

681
00:31:45,800 --> 00:31:47,800
Speaker 2: you want to chase an atline special, I don't think

682
00:31:47,840 --> 00:31:51,560
Speaker 2: it's a bad idea because I think if directionally, you

683
00:31:51,600 --> 00:31:54,040
Speaker 2: know what I think about Benfica is true, and that

684
00:31:54,080 --> 00:31:56,880
Speaker 2: they just pretty much think i AX could could run here,

685
00:31:57,000 --> 00:31:59,960
Speaker 2: And like you said, there are some signs that maybe

686
00:32:00,040 --> 00:32:02,000
Speaker 2: i AX should have conceided a little more in the group.

687
00:32:02,040 --> 00:32:04,880
Speaker 2: They got a little bit fortunate sometimes, but I just

688
00:32:04,880 --> 00:32:07,320
Speaker 2: don't know how they keep pace with IAX here, and

689
00:32:07,920 --> 00:32:10,040
Speaker 2: with the age of the center backs, I don't like

690
00:32:10,040 --> 00:32:11,160
Speaker 2: the tactical matchup either.

691
00:32:11,680 --> 00:32:14,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, i X minus one is plus one sixty five.

692
00:32:14,320 --> 00:32:16,240
Speaker 1: That's a pretty good number. Because I'm I'm going to

693
00:32:16,280 --> 00:32:18,160
Speaker 1: tell you right now, if IX is winning this match,

694
00:32:18,280 --> 00:32:20,040
Speaker 1: it's not gonna be by one goal, and it's going

695
00:32:20,120 --> 00:32:21,080
Speaker 1: to be by two or three.

696
00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:23,160
Speaker 3: So yeah, or if they win by one goal, it's

697
00:32:23,240 --> 00:32:25,960
Speaker 3: them going down one nil, and then you can write

698
00:32:25,960 --> 00:32:27,680
Speaker 3: a live betam right like, So you want to find

699
00:32:28,000 --> 00:32:30,720
Speaker 3: find yourself a nice price to cozy up next to

700
00:32:30,960 --> 00:32:33,760
Speaker 3: with this IX team, I think is the general lesson

701
00:32:33,840 --> 00:32:36,000
Speaker 3: we're trying to say here, because I.

702
00:32:36,760 --> 00:32:38,680
Speaker 1: Just want to say one thing. I really want them

703
00:32:38,680 --> 00:32:41,040
Speaker 1: to draw PSG in the next round. I want it.

704
00:32:41,200 --> 00:32:43,840
Speaker 2: I'm telling you now, I don't want PSG anymore. All right,

705
00:32:44,040 --> 00:32:47,280
Speaker 2: I'm officially I'm officially off the PSG stinks train. I

706
00:32:47,280 --> 00:32:50,240
Speaker 2: want to make that clear. I think there's legitimate improvement

707
00:32:50,960 --> 00:32:53,400
Speaker 2: and the numbers, and I am off the PSC sinks train.

708
00:32:53,680 --> 00:32:56,600
Speaker 2: I would love to draw Chelsea. I think that would

709
00:32:56,600 --> 00:32:59,960
Speaker 2: be a great matchup for I AX. You know, if

710
00:33:00,280 --> 00:33:02,800
Speaker 2: oh my gosh, they can get Atletico Madrid or even

711
00:33:02,840 --> 00:33:06,600
Speaker 2: Man United. Oh, that'd be fun and maybe even you know,

712
00:33:06,640 --> 00:33:08,280
Speaker 2: and I know this hurts us as a podcast, but

713
00:33:08,600 --> 00:33:12,160
Speaker 2: real either of those teams, I'm feeling pretty good. The

714
00:33:12,200 --> 00:33:13,560
Speaker 2: only teams I don't want to play a Byron in

715
00:33:13,600 --> 00:33:16,200
Speaker 2: City in Liverpool otherwise I don't I don't fear them

716
00:33:16,200 --> 00:33:17,000
Speaker 2: against anybody.

717
00:33:17,200 --> 00:33:18,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, and that's that's a good point. I think that

718
00:33:19,080 --> 00:33:22,880
Speaker 1: when you're looking at Champions League futures, really like honestly,

719
00:33:22,920 --> 00:33:26,120
Speaker 1: sitting right now, I think realistically, the only three teams

720
00:33:26,120 --> 00:33:27,440
Speaker 1: that are gonna win the champions that are going to

721
00:33:27,480 --> 00:33:31,080
Speaker 1: be Liverpool City or Byron. Outside of that, it's it's

722
00:33:31,120 --> 00:33:33,479
Speaker 1: it's take a shot time on some of these longer

723
00:33:33,680 --> 00:33:35,960
Speaker 1: down the board type teams like Athletico or Via Real

724
00:33:36,000 --> 00:33:39,320
Speaker 1: because there's just really not much value on well Real

725
00:33:39,360 --> 00:33:41,640
Speaker 1: Madrid not anymore obviously after losing the first leg. But

726
00:33:41,720 --> 00:33:44,160
Speaker 1: you know, PSG, Man United, some of these other teams

727
00:33:44,160 --> 00:33:45,880
Speaker 1: that are sitting around ten, twelve to one, there's just

728
00:33:45,920 --> 00:33:47,680
Speaker 1: really not much value on them because I don't think

729
00:33:47,680 --> 00:33:50,240
Speaker 1: they're even really close to the level of those the

730
00:33:50,320 --> 00:33:51,600
Speaker 1: first three teams that I mentioned.

731
00:33:51,840 --> 00:33:54,920
Speaker 3: And the beauty of it is Liverpool can draw man

732
00:33:54,960 --> 00:33:57,720
Speaker 3: City in the next round, or or Byron or you

733
00:33:57,760 --> 00:33:59,720
Speaker 3: know whoever like those. You know, they could they could

734
00:33:59,760 --> 00:34:01,440
Speaker 3: end up like that. It's it all comes down to

735
00:34:01,960 --> 00:34:05,480
Speaker 3: the sorting hat. All right, let's pauson Champions League for now.

736
00:34:05,520 --> 00:34:09,200
Speaker 3: We'll move to the midweek Premier League matches. We'll start

737
00:34:09,200 --> 00:34:12,120
Speaker 3: with Tottenham Hotspur delivered for me as eleven to one

738
00:34:12,200 --> 00:34:16,440
Speaker 3: underdogs against Manchester City. They're traveling to turf Moore to

739
00:34:16,480 --> 00:34:19,160
Speaker 3: take on Burnley, who are plus three to fifty Spurs

740
00:34:19,160 --> 00:34:21,839
Speaker 3: odds on minus one twenty five the draws plus two

741
00:34:21,800 --> 00:34:25,000
Speaker 3: to seventy five. This is a Wednesday two thirty pm kickoff.

742
00:34:25,080 --> 00:34:28,440
Speaker 3: Burnley one three and one win draw loss over their

743
00:34:28,520 --> 00:34:32,719
Speaker 3: last five. The draws came against Arsenal and including one

744
00:34:32,719 --> 00:34:35,239
Speaker 3: against Man United. The win was an very impressive one

745
00:34:35,320 --> 00:34:38,840
Speaker 3: over Brighton and even the loss they looked fine. I

746
00:34:38,880 --> 00:34:41,840
Speaker 3: think against Liverpool they were pretty unlucky h not to

747
00:34:42,120 --> 00:34:45,200
Speaker 3: at least go ahead in that game. Liverpool end up

748
00:34:45,200 --> 00:34:47,400
Speaker 3: winning the expected goals battle, but Burnley should have been

749
00:34:47,480 --> 00:34:50,239
Speaker 3: up one maybe two nil in the first half at

750
00:34:50,280 --> 00:34:52,919
Speaker 3: a very rainy, cold turf. More looks like this team

751
00:34:53,000 --> 00:34:56,840
Speaker 3: is improving a little bit. Without Vague Horse looks like

752
00:34:56,920 --> 00:35:00,319
Speaker 3: a perfect fit for I mean as much of an

753
00:35:00,520 --> 00:35:06,040
Speaker 3: outlier for Burnley that Maxwell Corney is. Vague course is

754
00:35:06,200 --> 00:35:09,319
Speaker 3: just if Sean Dykes could invent a football player, it

755
00:35:09,320 --> 00:35:11,759
Speaker 3: would be him, and they look better. I think you're

756
00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:14,640
Speaker 3: getting them a decent number here because of Spurs beating

757
00:35:14,680 --> 00:35:16,920
Speaker 3: City like this is a pretty good opportunity. I think

758
00:35:16,960 --> 00:35:20,279
Speaker 3: to sell high on Conte Spurs. However, I want to

759
00:35:20,280 --> 00:35:22,040
Speaker 3: see you tick up a little more. If we can

760
00:35:22,040 --> 00:35:24,120
Speaker 3: get towards four to one on Burnley, I think I'll

761
00:35:24,160 --> 00:35:27,640
Speaker 3: be in if not, maybe a pass here for me, Anthony,

762
00:35:28,000 --> 00:35:30,680
Speaker 3: you're the Spurs fan on this podcast, you have to

763
00:35:30,680 --> 00:35:32,040
Speaker 3: admit this numbers a little too high rate.

764
00:35:32,239 --> 00:35:35,319
Speaker 2: Yeah, it is minus one oh five was the look

765
00:35:35,360 --> 00:35:37,080
Speaker 2: ahead and now we're up to one twenty five. Probably

766
00:35:37,120 --> 00:35:40,200
Speaker 2: gonna push one thirty by game time. Both teams had

767
00:35:40,200 --> 00:35:44,200
Speaker 2: impressive performances, obviously varying degrees of that. Spurs actually winning

768
00:35:44,280 --> 00:35:46,840
Speaker 2: the expected goals battle, you know, not counting a penalty

769
00:35:46,840 --> 00:35:50,320
Speaker 2: in that match against City, creating four big scoring chances.

770
00:35:50,960 --> 00:35:52,759
Speaker 2: It was a beautiful, beautiful thing, and they had one

771
00:35:52,800 --> 00:35:55,440
Speaker 2: bart off that was really on a knife edge. So

772
00:35:56,200 --> 00:35:58,959
Speaker 2: a beautiful win for Tottenham. But like you said, there's

773
00:35:59,000 --> 00:36:00,600
Speaker 2: no value in this number. For me, I actually lean

774
00:36:00,640 --> 00:36:03,920
Speaker 2: toward Burnley. I think they can cause some problems with crossing.

775
00:36:04,000 --> 00:36:07,920
Speaker 2: Tottenham's defensive numbers with crossing as a whole have not

776
00:36:07,960 --> 00:36:12,719
Speaker 2: been bad, but they have had big time issues stylistically

777
00:36:12,760 --> 00:36:16,200
Speaker 2: defending the far post. The wing backs have been very

778
00:36:16,239 --> 00:36:19,320
Speaker 2: suspect at stopping crosses from coming into the box. I

779
00:36:19,360 --> 00:36:21,839
Speaker 2: think that's the major red flag here if you're looking

780
00:36:21,840 --> 00:36:24,359
Speaker 2: to back Tottenham, I think they could concede very much here.

781
00:36:24,360 --> 00:36:26,480
Speaker 2: And I know Bja's thinking that's going to happen in

782
00:36:26,520 --> 00:36:30,879
Speaker 2: this match, and so I don't disagree with the over either,

783
00:36:31,040 --> 00:36:33,560
Speaker 2: but generally I'm probably gonna end up staying away here.

784
00:36:33,840 --> 00:36:35,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, I love over two and a half goals. At

785
00:36:35,800 --> 00:36:39,760
Speaker 1: plus one ten, Anthony mentioned the crossing defense from Tottenham

786
00:36:39,760 --> 00:36:43,400
Speaker 1: has been I'd say suspect. The last few matches obviously

787
00:36:43,800 --> 00:36:47,080
Speaker 1: to City had forty crosses, okay, and they only completed

788
00:36:47,120 --> 00:36:48,560
Speaker 1: five of them into the box. So you could say

789
00:36:48,560 --> 00:36:50,840
Speaker 1: as a percentage as a whole that Tottenham did a

790
00:36:50,840 --> 00:36:53,720
Speaker 1: good job or whatever. But the two goals that City

791
00:36:53,880 --> 00:36:56,480
Speaker 1: had essentially came off of crosses. You know, one was

792
00:36:56,520 --> 00:36:58,720
Speaker 1: a deflection that was a putback goal. The other one

793
00:36:58,960 --> 00:37:01,040
Speaker 1: I believe was end up being like handball. I can't

794
00:37:01,040 --> 00:37:05,240
Speaker 1: remember exactly for the penalty Maro handled it, Yeah, handball.

795
00:37:05,320 --> 00:37:08,520
Speaker 1: Therea that came off across. Burnley scored on a cross

796
00:37:08,920 --> 00:37:12,800
Speaker 1: against Brighton this past weekend. Even the match against Southampton

797
00:37:13,000 --> 00:37:15,799
Speaker 1: at white hart Land, the last two goals came on

798
00:37:16,239 --> 00:37:19,719
Speaker 1: just free runners going right to the far post at yep,

799
00:37:19,920 --> 00:37:23,320
Speaker 1: right right into the box. Headers off of crosses. Burnley

800
00:37:23,920 --> 00:37:26,840
Speaker 1: second most crosses per ninety in the Premier League. Completing

801
00:37:26,880 --> 00:37:30,840
Speaker 1: about two point five into the box per ninety minutes.

802
00:37:30,880 --> 00:37:34,279
Speaker 1: Now the Tottenham Anthony, I'll give Anthony credit for this.

803
00:37:34,360 --> 00:37:37,960
Speaker 1: The Tottenham overs have been coming in in waves and

804
00:37:38,000 --> 00:37:40,719
Speaker 1: then been really profitable of the last month or so,

805
00:37:41,600 --> 00:37:44,840
Speaker 1: last five matches, averaging three point five expected goals and

806
00:37:44,880 --> 00:37:48,040
Speaker 1: four point six actual goals. Conte has really just unlocked,

807
00:37:48,080 --> 00:37:50,200
Speaker 1: you know, the offensive. Cane and Son playing together, they're

808
00:37:50,200 --> 00:37:52,000
Speaker 1: probably playing at one of the highest levels I've ever

809
00:37:52,040 --> 00:37:55,680
Speaker 1: seen both of them play under Conte, Tottenham averaging two

810
00:37:55,719 --> 00:37:58,320
Speaker 1: point one expected goals per match, which I believe is

811
00:37:58,360 --> 00:38:00,279
Speaker 1: third in the Premier League over that time span only

812
00:38:00,320 --> 00:38:04,920
Speaker 1: Liverpool and City Burnley quite bad defensively when they have

813
00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:08,640
Speaker 1: to play top seven side one point seventy five actually

814
00:38:08,680 --> 00:38:11,719
Speaker 1: per match. They're also dead last and shots loud for

815
00:38:11,800 --> 00:38:14,680
Speaker 1: ninety in box entries allowed. So Tottenham, I have no

816
00:38:15,200 --> 00:38:16,759
Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure they're going to put the ball in

817
00:38:16,760 --> 00:38:19,480
Speaker 1: the back of that at least twice in this match.

818
00:38:19,520 --> 00:38:21,080
Speaker 1: And I do think Burnley gets on the board here,

819
00:38:21,160 --> 00:38:23,480
Speaker 1: So I do love over two and f goals at

820
00:38:23,480 --> 00:38:26,120
Speaker 1: plus one ten. My projection is two point eight seven,

821
00:38:26,160 --> 00:38:28,000
Speaker 1: so I think you're getting some good value there for

822
00:38:28,000 --> 00:38:30,840
Speaker 1: a high scoring match at turf More, there's another relegation

823
00:38:31,080 --> 00:38:34,600
Speaker 1: team potential team playing as well on Wednesday s Watford

824
00:38:34,680 --> 00:38:37,479
Speaker 1: there plus two to thirty five hosting Crystal Palace plus

825
00:38:37,560 --> 00:38:40,040
Speaker 1: one thirty the Druss plus two twenty five The Roy

826
00:38:40,160 --> 00:38:43,600
Speaker 1: Hodgson Darby Roy is one O one two win draw

827
00:38:43,680 --> 00:38:47,200
Speaker 1: loss with a couple of decent defensive performances for Watford,

828
00:38:47,400 --> 00:38:49,560
Speaker 1: which is saying a lot because their defense was an

829
00:38:49,600 --> 00:38:53,160
Speaker 1: absolute mess until he got there. Let me just quickly

830
00:38:53,200 --> 00:38:56,120
Speaker 1: size up the relegation battle starting at the bottom. Norwich

831
00:38:56,160 --> 00:38:59,560
Speaker 1: City seventeen points from twenty five games, Burnley seventeen from

832
00:38:59,560 --> 00:39:02,120
Speaker 1: twenty two, Watford eighteen from twenty four.

833
00:39:02,160 --> 00:39:06,160
Speaker 3: Those are your three teams currently in the relegation zone. Burnley,

834
00:39:06,200 --> 00:39:08,759
Speaker 3: by the way, their gold differential do you guys want

835
00:39:08,800 --> 00:39:10,840
Speaker 3: to take a quick guess what it is on the season?

836
00:39:10,880 --> 00:39:11,439
Speaker 3: Anthony Eugo.

837
00:39:11,480 --> 00:39:17,560
Speaker 2: First, I'm gonna go with minus ten minus.

838
00:39:16,840 --> 00:39:19,200
Speaker 3: Eight minus nine right in between you two. It's pretty

839
00:39:19,200 --> 00:39:22,120
Speaker 3: impressive considering their record. Just not a team that really

840
00:39:22,160 --> 00:39:23,920
Speaker 3: gets blown out. They draw a lot of games obviously,

841
00:39:24,480 --> 00:39:26,880
Speaker 3: but yeah, so Burnley seventeen points from twenty two games,

842
00:39:27,080 --> 00:39:29,000
Speaker 3: Watford eighteen from twenty four. Like I said, those are

843
00:39:29,000 --> 00:39:31,560
Speaker 3: the three teams in the drop zone right now. Right

844
00:39:31,600 --> 00:39:34,359
Speaker 3: ahead of them Newcastle twenty two points from twenty four,

845
00:39:34,480 --> 00:39:36,080
Speaker 3: the worst team in the world that's ever in their

846
00:39:36,120 --> 00:39:39,600
Speaker 3: twenty two points from twenty three, and then Leeds United

847
00:39:39,600 --> 00:39:41,279
Speaker 3: they're twenty three from twenty four, and then how about

848
00:39:41,280 --> 00:39:43,000
Speaker 3: Brentford twenty four from twenty.

849
00:39:42,719 --> 00:39:45,600
Speaker 2: Six, Like, yeah, a little scary there, Yeah.

850
00:39:46,280 --> 00:39:50,680
Speaker 3: Definitely a little scary considering their games played. And then

851
00:39:50,840 --> 00:39:52,279
Speaker 3: you know, because they're playing I'll just throw them in

852
00:39:52,280 --> 00:39:54,920
Speaker 3: their palace. They're twenty six points from twenty five games,

853
00:39:54,920 --> 00:39:59,240
Speaker 3: but they're underlying metrics obviously suggests a much stronger team.

854
00:39:59,520 --> 00:40:01,960
Speaker 3: And I think that we talk a lot about the show.

855
00:40:01,960 --> 00:40:04,640
Speaker 3: Anthony's the one who was drills at Home Palace. They've

856
00:40:04,680 --> 00:40:08,200
Speaker 3: been awful, awful, awful away from sell Hurst Park. They'll

857
00:40:08,200 --> 00:40:10,360
Speaker 3: be away from sell Hurst Park in this one. But

858
00:40:10,440 --> 00:40:14,400
Speaker 3: I do think you're getting a decent number to go

859
00:40:14,440 --> 00:40:17,600
Speaker 3: against Watford, considering you're basically getting a nice cell high

860
00:40:17,640 --> 00:40:21,040
Speaker 3: spot against the Hornets here plus two thirty five is

861
00:40:21,280 --> 00:40:23,400
Speaker 3: a little rich, I think against a much much better

862
00:40:23,400 --> 00:40:27,680
Speaker 3: team in Crystal Palace, especially now the Palace, well, they're

863
00:40:27,680 --> 00:40:28,960
Speaker 3: not going to look at it like this is a

864
00:40:29,200 --> 00:40:32,960
Speaker 3: beneficial stamped relegation six pointer, but they don't want to

865
00:40:32,960 --> 00:40:34,960
Speaker 3: get dragged into this. So I think it's a pretty

866
00:40:34,960 --> 00:40:36,800
Speaker 3: important match for Patrick Vieira. He might go ahead and

867
00:40:36,840 --> 00:40:38,319
Speaker 3: call it the most important match of the season for

868
00:40:38,360 --> 00:40:41,120
Speaker 3: them so far. So I like Palace plus one thirty

869
00:40:41,160 --> 00:40:44,279
Speaker 3: here as road favorites BJ anything for you.

870
00:40:44,719 --> 00:40:47,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll ultimately pass man Roy Hodgson. You know, just

871
00:40:47,600 --> 00:40:50,080
Speaker 1: seeing him there on the sideline and some heavy coats

872
00:40:50,200 --> 00:40:53,160
Speaker 1: and the glasses there, he looks like he'd rather just

873
00:40:53,239 --> 00:40:56,760
Speaker 1: be having some tea, you know, sitting on the country side.

874
00:40:56,880 --> 00:40:59,439
Speaker 2: But you know he's still see the training videos though,

875
00:40:59,480 --> 00:41:00,640
Speaker 2: I mean he's all in.

876
00:41:01,040 --> 00:41:04,040
Speaker 1: I know he's he's he's a legend. He obviously coached

877
00:41:04,080 --> 00:41:07,439
Speaker 1: England national team's he's obviously done over his career.

878
00:41:07,480 --> 00:41:09,799
Speaker 2: What's that not, Well he didn't coach them, Well.

879
00:41:09,719 --> 00:41:13,479
Speaker 1: No, I didn't coach them. Well, but he did coach them. Yeah,

880
00:41:13,520 --> 00:41:16,680
Speaker 1: It's it's interesting Watford. They obviously got the one nill

881
00:41:17,040 --> 00:41:19,160
Speaker 1: win against Sassin Villa, a huge result. They lost the

882
00:41:19,200 --> 00:41:21,920
Speaker 1: expected goals bat all out about one point six expected

883
00:41:21,960 --> 00:41:25,720
Speaker 1: goals to Villas, so not essentially this oh, my gosh,

884
00:41:25,800 --> 00:41:28,480
Speaker 1: Watford's back, you know, type of performance they do have.

885
00:41:28,560 --> 00:41:31,400
Speaker 1: Obviously some attacking talent they can get at Palace. If

886
00:41:31,440 --> 00:41:33,120
Speaker 1: I were to look at anything for this one, both

887
00:41:33,160 --> 00:41:35,719
Speaker 1: teams to score no is even money right now. If

888
00:41:35,760 --> 00:41:38,239
Speaker 1: if Watford's truly going to sit back in a four

889
00:41:38,280 --> 00:41:40,399
Speaker 1: to four two and Palace is going to be as

890
00:41:40,520 --> 00:41:43,000
Speaker 1: rock solid defensively as they have been all season long,

891
00:41:43,640 --> 00:41:45,960
Speaker 1: this could be a pretty low event match. But obviously

892
00:41:46,080 --> 00:41:47,640
Speaker 1: under two and a half goals is just pretty hard

893
00:41:47,719 --> 00:41:49,040
Speaker 1: right now, so I don't really want to play that.

894
00:41:49,680 --> 00:41:52,560
Speaker 1: You mentioned the road form for Palace is so concerning

895
00:41:52,600 --> 00:41:54,440
Speaker 1: away from home, and I've tried. I've tried to do

896
00:41:54,480 --> 00:41:56,680
Speaker 1: it before, you know, when they played Norwich and then

897
00:41:56,680 --> 00:41:59,080
Speaker 1: they couldn't beat them on the road at a decent price,

898
00:41:59,160 --> 00:42:03,000
Speaker 1: so I will ultimately be staying away. I'm very interested

899
00:42:03,000 --> 00:42:05,440
Speaker 1: to see though, how Palace does against some of these

900
00:42:05,480 --> 00:42:07,560
Speaker 1: lower sides. They haven't really been able to get margin

901
00:42:07,600 --> 00:42:10,720
Speaker 1: against them, so it's they and then they obviously performed

902
00:42:10,840 --> 00:42:12,920
Speaker 1: very well against the top half the table. It's very

903
00:42:12,960 --> 00:42:16,120
Speaker 1: weird how the performances have gone, so I'm very interested

904
00:42:16,160 --> 00:42:19,759
Speaker 1: to see if Palace can come out dominate possession and

905
00:42:19,840 --> 00:42:23,240
Speaker 1: actually break down a FOURT four two. If not, then

906
00:42:23,320 --> 00:42:25,439
Speaker 1: I have some major concerns with their offense.

907
00:42:25,600 --> 00:42:28,799
Speaker 3: Anthony, Before we move on anything, for you between these

908
00:42:28,800 --> 00:42:29,600
Speaker 3: two teams, this.

909
00:42:29,560 --> 00:42:31,680
Speaker 2: Is a real sickos match. You know, it's a Wednesday

910
00:42:31,719 --> 00:42:36,439
Speaker 2: afternoon game for the for US Americans, and it's simultaneous

911
00:42:36,440 --> 00:42:39,640
Speaker 2: with the Champions League and Liverpool Leeds and Tottenham Burnley,

912
00:42:39,680 --> 00:42:42,080
Speaker 2: and you know those are all more appetizing. So if

913
00:42:42,080 --> 00:42:45,920
Speaker 2: you're betting this and watching this, godspeed, But I will

914
00:42:45,960 --> 00:42:48,479
Speaker 2: be sitting this one out. I generally agree with bj

915
00:42:48,680 --> 00:42:51,319
Speaker 2: and Michael that say that Palace is probably a little undervalued,

916
00:42:51,840 --> 00:42:54,839
Speaker 2: but again, can't get margin against these other sides, been

917
00:42:54,840 --> 00:42:57,520
Speaker 2: so bad on the road and Watford's defense has made

918
00:42:57,560 --> 00:43:00,840
Speaker 2: legitimate improvements under Roy, So I would lean toward the

919
00:43:00,920 --> 00:43:04,880
Speaker 2: under probably lean toward Palace, but very unlikely. I'll betting

920
00:43:04,880 --> 00:43:05,440
Speaker 2: this one.

921
00:43:05,280 --> 00:43:09,439
Speaker 3: All right. Liverpool their minus five seventy five, hosting Leeds

922
00:43:09,520 --> 00:43:14,040
Speaker 3: United fifteen to one, traveling to Anfield the Dross plus

923
00:43:14,080 --> 00:43:17,040
Speaker 3: six fifty. The Reds five wins in a row, but

924
00:43:17,480 --> 00:43:19,920
Speaker 3: a couple of lucky performances. We talked about the Burnley

925
00:43:19,960 --> 00:43:22,959
Speaker 3: one they went behind against Norwich they lost the XG

926
00:43:23,080 --> 00:43:26,080
Speaker 3: battle to Crystal Palace. That's three of those five wins.

927
00:43:26,400 --> 00:43:28,480
Speaker 3: This happens every season just because of the way the

928
00:43:28,480 --> 00:43:31,040
Speaker 3: Premier League schedule is situated. It's similar to what we

929
00:43:31,040 --> 00:43:33,440
Speaker 3: talked about with United. Liverpool is a team that just

930
00:43:33,440 --> 00:43:36,959
Speaker 3: can really drum beat the drum out of some bad

931
00:43:37,000 --> 00:43:39,360
Speaker 3: teams and get results when they don't have their a

932
00:43:39,440 --> 00:43:41,920
Speaker 3: game against those bad teams. That's what they're doing. It's

933
00:43:41,960 --> 00:43:45,279
Speaker 3: a nightmare matchup for Leeds. They've had a couple right

934
00:43:45,320 --> 00:43:48,560
Speaker 3: of performances against claps Liverpool since they've come back to

935
00:43:48,560 --> 00:43:52,160
Speaker 3: the Premier League. It's going to take some bravery to

936
00:43:52,560 --> 00:43:55,200
Speaker 3: pack the Peacocks here, but fifteen to one almost makes

937
00:43:55,200 --> 00:43:58,040
Speaker 3: it worth it. Considering like I said, I don't really

938
00:43:58,040 --> 00:44:00,520
Speaker 3: think Liverpool's in as good a form as people are

939
00:44:00,600 --> 00:44:02,600
Speaker 3: saying and thinking they are because they're back in the

940
00:44:02,640 --> 00:44:06,080
Speaker 3: title race. Takes the Tottenham beating man City right six

941
00:44:06,200 --> 00:44:08,000
Speaker 3: only six points with the game in hand now between

942
00:44:08,040 --> 00:44:11,120
Speaker 3: City and Liverpool. So I think the number it's the

943
00:44:11,160 --> 00:44:15,240
Speaker 3: old Liverpool conundrum, right. The number is obviously way too high. However,

944
00:44:15,520 --> 00:44:17,680
Speaker 3: it doesn't mean that you should just bet against them, right,

945
00:44:17,840 --> 00:44:20,880
Speaker 3: So a tough match up here between these two teams

946
00:44:20,880 --> 00:44:23,719
Speaker 3: and which should be a back and forth battle while

947
00:44:23,719 --> 00:44:26,800
Speaker 3: pinging all over the place, football on the floor type stuff.

948
00:44:27,680 --> 00:44:30,239
Speaker 3: I'll probably play leads because you want to talk about

949
00:44:30,239 --> 00:44:32,600
Speaker 3: sick of stuff. This is sicko stuff too, But I'll

950
00:44:32,800 --> 00:44:36,359
Speaker 3: have a little sprinkle on leads. Fifteen to one, Anthony, you're

951
00:44:36,360 --> 00:44:37,840
Speaker 3: expecting some goals here, Ray.

952
00:44:37,760 --> 00:44:42,000
Speaker 2: I am, and in fact Leeds conceded four expected goals

953
00:44:42,000 --> 00:44:44,440
Speaker 2: to Liverpool. There was a red card in there in

954
00:44:44,480 --> 00:44:46,880
Speaker 2: the first meeting. That is the second most that Liverpool

955
00:44:46,880 --> 00:44:49,200
Speaker 2: have put up in a Premier League game all season,

956
00:44:49,480 --> 00:44:53,280
Speaker 2: second only two Arsenal match, which I had to say,

957
00:44:53,360 --> 00:44:57,080
Speaker 2: which was a dropping anyway. That was also a three

958
00:44:57,200 --> 00:45:00,640
Speaker 2: nail dropping of leads earlier this year. So so the

959
00:45:00,680 --> 00:45:04,239
Speaker 2: one big angle here from a situational spot is that

960
00:45:04,320 --> 00:45:06,880
Speaker 2: Liverpool had a comfortable win at the weekend. Sure, but

961
00:45:06,920 --> 00:45:09,120
Speaker 2: they're looking ahead to Sunday and it's impossible to not

962
00:45:09,160 --> 00:45:10,640
Speaker 2: and I understand they're back in the title race and

963
00:45:10,680 --> 00:45:13,800
Speaker 2: that'll be a major focus. But a cup final on Sunday.

964
00:45:13,840 --> 00:45:16,120
Speaker 2: Even if Klop says he doesn't care about the Carabo,

965
00:45:16,360 --> 00:45:18,600
Speaker 2: They're gonna care on Sunday and They're gonna care absolutely

966
00:45:18,800 --> 00:45:22,040
Speaker 2: in this very sleepy Wednesday home spot against Leeds. They've

967
00:45:22,120 --> 00:45:25,000
Speaker 2: known they can thrash leads at any time, but Leeds

968
00:45:25,040 --> 00:45:27,279
Speaker 2: attack should be able to get at Liverpool here. It's

969
00:45:27,320 --> 00:45:29,960
Speaker 2: just a general overrating of this Liverpool defense when you

970
00:45:30,040 --> 00:45:32,560
Speaker 2: watch them. They just don't exert the same level of

971
00:45:32,600 --> 00:45:36,000
Speaker 2: game control they have in years past. And look, we

972
00:45:36,160 --> 00:45:40,560
Speaker 2: cashed a Norwich to score bet. I'm feeling good and

973
00:45:40,600 --> 00:45:43,600
Speaker 2: I am betting against this Liverpool defense yet again, and

974
00:45:43,640 --> 00:45:46,560
Speaker 2: then taking the minus one point fifteen both teams to score. Yes,

975
00:45:46,600 --> 00:45:49,560
Speaker 2: in this game. Leeds did create one point two expected

976
00:45:49,600 --> 00:45:53,000
Speaker 2: goals in the in the meeting earlier this year at home,

977
00:45:53,040 --> 00:45:55,640
Speaker 2: and I think they'll be able to generate some chances

978
00:45:55,680 --> 00:45:57,319
Speaker 2: in this one and get on the board, even though

979
00:45:57,320 --> 00:46:00,400
Speaker 2: I think Liverpool may score three and when this comfortably,

980
00:46:00,440 --> 00:46:02,840
Speaker 2: which I think ultimately will happen. But you know, you

981
00:46:02,920 --> 00:46:06,040
Speaker 2: look back at some of the performances leads have created

982
00:46:06,120 --> 00:46:08,640
Speaker 2: chances against these big sides and they've generally been able

983
00:46:08,680 --> 00:46:10,600
Speaker 2: to sneak one. We saw today they snuck two in

984
00:46:10,640 --> 00:46:13,200
Speaker 2: a minute, even if one was a bit fortunate. This

985
00:46:13,239 --> 00:46:16,720
Speaker 2: team can absolutely cost some issues and get at Liverpool

986
00:46:16,760 --> 00:46:17,200
Speaker 2: in transition.

987
00:46:17,480 --> 00:46:19,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, and you said like they have a cup final

988
00:46:19,280 --> 00:46:21,279
Speaker 3: coming over the weekend. This is also they're six match

989
00:46:21,280 --> 00:46:25,040
Speaker 3: in seventeen days for Liverpool. So if there ever was

990
00:46:25,040 --> 00:46:27,839
Speaker 3: a spot to have a little taste of a big

991
00:46:27,880 --> 00:46:31,240
Speaker 3: money line, fifteen to one on leads here, it's not terrible.

992
00:46:31,320 --> 00:46:33,800
Speaker 3: I don't think it's it will be terrible, I should say,

993
00:46:34,640 --> 00:46:36,480
Speaker 3: but when it all ends. But you know, even if

994
00:46:36,520 --> 00:46:39,719
Speaker 3: you're not a lunatic like me and you want to

995
00:46:39,719 --> 00:46:41,719
Speaker 3: just like look for another way into the marketplace, I

996
00:46:41,760 --> 00:46:44,160
Speaker 3: think first team to score plus three forty on leads

997
00:46:44,160 --> 00:46:46,480
Speaker 3: is interesting as well, but definitely not a type of

998
00:46:46,480 --> 00:46:48,719
Speaker 3: team I don't think that, or type of matchup where

999
00:46:48,719 --> 00:46:51,240
Speaker 3: you're looking at back them like plus one and a half.

1000
00:46:50,800 --> 00:46:53,560
Speaker 3: If you believe in leads that much, bet them to win.

1001
00:46:55,200 --> 00:46:58,840
Speaker 3: Only other Premier League game that's BJ's Arsenal. They're minus

1002
00:46:58,840 --> 00:47:02,120
Speaker 3: one sixty hosting over Hampton Wanderers for the second time

1003
00:47:03,320 --> 00:47:07,480
Speaker 3: since February tenth. That match ended one nil in a

1004
00:47:07,480 --> 00:47:09,880
Speaker 3: pretty good performance by Arsenal one point eight to one

1005
00:47:09,880 --> 00:47:12,920
Speaker 3: point zero, and the expected goal battle wolves are five

1006
00:47:12,960 --> 00:47:15,719
Speaker 3: to one here. They're in good form. Pretty interesting number

1007
00:47:15,760 --> 00:47:19,720
Speaker 3: there and the draw here is plus two ninety. Arsenal's

1008
00:47:19,760 --> 00:47:22,160
Speaker 3: only played two games since January twenty third. Somehow, I

1009
00:47:22,160 --> 00:47:24,239
Speaker 3: don't know how that's happened. We got teams playing every

1010
00:47:24,280 --> 00:47:27,360
Speaker 3: other day and Arsenal's only played twice since the January

1011
00:47:27,360 --> 00:47:30,880
Speaker 3: twenty third BJ. I'm gonna right now pass on this.

1012
00:47:30,920 --> 00:47:33,120
Speaker 3: I'm pretty interested in Wolves. I probably will end up

1013
00:47:33,160 --> 00:47:35,240
Speaker 3: on them in some way or another because I trust

1014
00:47:35,239 --> 00:47:38,720
Speaker 3: this team. I think we're talking. We've seen some offensive

1015
00:47:38,719 --> 00:47:41,920
Speaker 3: aggression from them coming. Arsenal is a good form obviously,

1016
00:47:42,000 --> 00:47:44,960
Speaker 3: but I just don't think the gap between these two

1017
00:47:45,000 --> 00:47:46,560
Speaker 3: teams is as wide. What do you say?

1018
00:47:47,760 --> 00:47:51,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'd say Arsenal is tad overvalued in the market,

1019
00:47:51,080 --> 00:47:53,920
Speaker 1: but not as drastic as they usually are. So the

1020
00:47:54,320 --> 00:47:57,759
Speaker 1: last few matches for Arsenal have been unbelievably amazing. To

1021
00:47:57,800 --> 00:48:01,400
Speaker 1: watch the match against Brentford. They completely dominated them for

1022
00:48:01,440 --> 00:48:03,480
Speaker 1: pretty much the entire match and then Redford got to

1023
00:48:03,920 --> 00:48:07,000
Speaker 1: tap in goal off of a corner at the very end,

1024
00:48:07,080 --> 00:48:11,600
Speaker 1: but unbelievable offensive performance from Arsenal. And even go back

1025
00:48:11,600 --> 00:48:14,000
Speaker 1: to that match against Wolves, what do even the expected

1026
00:48:14,000 --> 00:48:17,280
Speaker 1: goals about a one point eight to one when Arsenal

1027
00:48:17,320 --> 00:48:20,000
Speaker 1: got a red card in the sixtieth minute is really

1028
00:48:20,040 --> 00:48:23,879
Speaker 1: impressive when you think about it. What's interting though, from

1029
00:48:23,880 --> 00:48:26,880
Speaker 1: a Wolve's perspective, Anthony has been just saying over and

1030
00:48:26,920 --> 00:48:30,600
Speaker 1: over that Wolves offensive regression, that the Wolves over, Wolves overs,

1031
00:48:30,640 --> 00:48:31,840
Speaker 1: Wolves overs.

1032
00:48:31,920 --> 00:48:33,440
Speaker 2: And they went over today.

1033
00:48:33,600 --> 00:48:36,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I actually agree with them here, honestly because

1034
00:48:36,400 --> 00:48:41,120
Speaker 1: I went and looked. So when Wolves plays teams above

1035
00:48:41,200 --> 00:48:44,080
Speaker 1: them in the table, their matches are averaging around two

1036
00:48:44,120 --> 00:48:46,800
Speaker 1: point seven expected goal but when they played teams below

1037
00:48:46,840 --> 00:48:49,319
Speaker 1: them in the table, those matches are only averaging two

1038
00:48:49,360 --> 00:48:52,760
Speaker 1: point one expected goals. So that's basically saying, okay, Wolves

1039
00:48:52,840 --> 00:48:54,680
Speaker 1: is happy to play on the counter. They're happy to

1040
00:48:54,880 --> 00:48:56,880
Speaker 1: sit back, absorb that pressure and move forward, but when

1041
00:48:56,920 --> 00:48:59,320
Speaker 1: they play those smaller sides, they're not used to holding

1042
00:48:59,360 --> 00:49:02,200
Speaker 1: that possession and dominating the ball and really trying to

1043
00:49:02,200 --> 00:49:04,480
Speaker 1: break teams down. So this is another match where I

1044
00:49:04,520 --> 00:49:06,080
Speaker 1: do like over two and a half goals at plus

1045
00:49:06,160 --> 00:49:09,719
Speaker 1: one twenty. The Arsenal offense has been improving greatly over

1046
00:49:09,719 --> 00:49:11,480
Speaker 1: the past two months. Obviously haven't played that much, but

1047
00:49:11,520 --> 00:49:13,279
Speaker 1: if we go back to basically the beginning of the year,

1048
00:49:13,640 --> 00:49:16,319
Speaker 1: the four matches this year, the two matches against City

1049
00:49:16,480 --> 00:49:19,200
Speaker 1: against Liverpool and against Chelsea where they just got absolutely

1050
00:49:19,239 --> 00:49:22,719
Speaker 1: thrashed and created basically nothing. Arsenal is averaging one point

1051
00:49:22,760 --> 00:49:24,919
Speaker 1: seventy to four expected goals per match against the rest

1052
00:49:24,960 --> 00:49:26,799
Speaker 1: of the Premier League, and they're much better at home

1053
00:49:26,800 --> 00:49:28,440
Speaker 1: than they are in the road one point six' eight

1054
00:49:28,680 --> 00:49:30,879
Speaker 1: actually per match versus only one point three to three

1055
00:49:31,160 --> 00:49:34,640
Speaker 1: on the. Road the biggest thing is That wolves is

1056
00:49:34,680 --> 00:49:37,160
Speaker 1: not providing much, pressure and We've i've talked about it,

1057
00:49:37,160 --> 00:49:39,319
Speaker 1: before but they're basically like a half court defense where

1058
00:49:39,520 --> 00:49:41,480
Speaker 1: they'll just sit, back but they're not even really pressing

1059
00:49:41,520 --> 00:49:44,080
Speaker 1: that much, anymore at least they like they were at

1060
00:49:44,080 --> 00:49:46,759
Speaker 1: the beginning of the. Season they're dead last in past

1061
00:49:46,880 --> 00:49:49,160
Speaker 1: per defensive action and we've talked about How arsenal is

1062
00:49:49,160 --> 00:49:51,799
Speaker 1: getting much much better at playing through. Pressure so With

1063
00:49:51,840 --> 00:49:54,359
Speaker 1: wolves not providing much, RESISTANCE i think it's a really

1064
00:49:54,360 --> 00:49:58,200
Speaker 1: good spot For arsenal to get some margin and win very.

1065
00:49:58,200 --> 00:50:01,040
Speaker 1: Comfortably but, AGAIN I i do think they're a tad

1066
00:50:01,120 --> 00:50:03,520
Speaker 1: over priced in the, market So i'll end up probably

1067
00:50:03,800 --> 00:50:06,520
Speaker 1: steering towards over two and a half goals at plus one,

1068
00:50:06,560 --> 00:50:08,359
Speaker 1: twenty WHICH i think is a good price BECAUSE i

1069
00:50:08,360 --> 00:50:10,759
Speaker 1: have this projected around two point four to, five So

1070
00:50:11,000 --> 00:50:13,200
Speaker 1: i'll go over two and a half goals at plus one.

1071
00:50:13,239 --> 00:50:14,520
Speaker 1: Twenty BUT i do think this is a good spot

1072
00:50:14,560 --> 00:50:15,400
Speaker 1: For arsenal to get a.

1073
00:50:15,400 --> 00:50:19,640
Speaker 3: Win, ANTHONY i Liked wolves overs before they were cool

1074
00:50:20,160 --> 00:50:24,160
Speaker 3: you in typical young, fashion all, right hopping on the

1075
00:50:24,160 --> 00:50:27,440
Speaker 3: bandwig in these, days another one for you, Here, YEAH

1076
00:50:27,520 --> 00:50:28,359
Speaker 3: i lean that way as.

1077
00:50:28,360 --> 00:50:29,960
Speaker 2: WELL i don't know How wolves score. HERE i Think

1078
00:50:30,080 --> 00:50:32,080
Speaker 2: arsenal's defense at home has been. EXCELLENT i think they've

1079
00:50:32,120 --> 00:50:35,520
Speaker 2: gotten significantly better in transition at, home AND i think

1080
00:50:35,560 --> 00:50:37,399
Speaker 2: that could be an issue For wolves trying to get

1081
00:50:37,400 --> 00:50:40,000
Speaker 2: on the board. Here they really had nothing going at

1082
00:50:40,000 --> 00:50:41,960
Speaker 2: home until that red, card and even after the red

1083
00:50:42,000 --> 00:50:44,080
Speaker 2: card it was just cross and, hope cross and, hope

1084
00:50:44,920 --> 00:50:46,600
Speaker 2: and so that would be the only thing that concerns

1085
00:50:46,600 --> 00:50:48,799
Speaker 2: me about The wolves over. Here BUT i Mean arsenal

1086
00:50:48,840 --> 00:50:51,960
Speaker 2: should score On. Wolves This wolve's luck box again one point.

1087
00:50:52,000 --> 00:50:54,760
Speaker 2: Five expect the goals allowed today To. Leicester they only concede.

1088
00:50:54,760 --> 00:50:57,799
Speaker 2: One they get off the hook. Again the team Is

1089
00:50:58,960 --> 00:51:01,600
Speaker 2: Josie saw And Bruno laje or miracle. Workers there's no

1090
00:51:01,640 --> 00:51:05,520
Speaker 2: other explanation. Anymore i've gone through all the analytics in the,

1091
00:51:05,520 --> 00:51:07,800
Speaker 2: world And i've decided that there is no way to

1092
00:51:07,840 --> 00:51:11,160
Speaker 2: beat This wolves luck box defense, Apparently so, Yeah wolves

1093
00:51:11,160 --> 00:51:13,080
Speaker 2: overs are the look and the, lean But i'll probably

1094
00:51:13,120 --> 00:51:15,800
Speaker 2: end up passing. Here the numbers not there For, arsenal

1095
00:51:16,480 --> 00:51:19,360
Speaker 2: AND i just really don't buy into you. KNOW i

1096
00:51:19,400 --> 00:51:21,480
Speaker 2: know the minute THAT i bet On wolves is when

1097
00:51:21,520 --> 00:51:23,919
Speaker 2: this good run is going to, end SO i really

1098
00:51:23,920 --> 00:51:25,440
Speaker 2: hesitant to do so in this.

1099
00:51:25,520 --> 00:51:27,920
Speaker 3: Situation all, right before we get to our best bets

1100
00:51:28,160 --> 00:51:30,520
Speaker 3: for The Champions league this, week real, quick let's just

1101
00:51:30,560 --> 00:51:32,799
Speaker 3: go Over Europa. League i'll turn it over to you.

1102
00:51:32,840 --> 00:51:36,640
Speaker 3: GUYS a couple Headliners napoli And, Barcelona rangers Of. Dortmund

1103
00:51:36,840 --> 00:51:39,520
Speaker 3: interesting first leg, there and of course.

1104
00:51:40,000 --> 00:51:41,600
Speaker 2: We associated AND Rb.

1105
00:51:41,719 --> 00:51:44,560
Speaker 3: Leipsig you guys want to quickly just go over your THOUGHTS,

1106
00:51:44,640 --> 00:51:47,160
Speaker 3: bja you can run through Your Europa league card as

1107
00:51:47,160 --> 00:51:47,560
Speaker 3: it sense.

1108
00:51:47,640 --> 00:51:51,360
Speaker 1: Now, First so, yeah The Rangers dormant match was first of,

1109
00:51:51,360 --> 00:51:54,720
Speaker 1: all very very. Entertaining it was up and down basically

1110
00:51:54,760 --> 00:51:57,879
Speaker 1: How rangers matches happened from week in and week, out

1111
00:51:58,440 --> 00:52:01,839
Speaker 1: and the door and defensively which we've seen all season,

1112
00:52:01,880 --> 00:52:06,440
Speaker 1: long was just really really sloppy in transition today and

1113
00:52:06,560 --> 00:52:09,879
Speaker 1: of course they, yeah they pull a shut out. Today

1114
00:52:10,120 --> 00:52:13,120
Speaker 1: it's incredibly sloppy in, transition. Sloppy they allowed a goal

1115
00:52:13,120 --> 00:52:15,200
Speaker 1: off a. Corner you, know they had a handball in the.

1116
00:52:15,200 --> 00:52:21,359
Speaker 1: Box it's just really really, bad bad. Performance And, rangers you,

1117
00:52:21,360 --> 00:52:23,480
Speaker 1: know now they have a two goal lead going back

1118
00:52:23,480 --> 00:52:26,560
Speaker 1: home To glasgow and it's gonna be a wide open

1119
00:52:26,600 --> 00:52:29,359
Speaker 1: match Because dorman has to go, go go for it

1120
00:52:29,600 --> 00:52:32,279
Speaker 1: and there's gonna be so much space For rangers on

1121
00:52:33,080 --> 00:52:34,840
Speaker 1: the counter and. Everything and they're not the type of

1122
00:52:34,880 --> 00:52:36,759
Speaker 1: team because obviously we talk about this a lot of

1123
00:52:36,800 --> 00:52:38,560
Speaker 1: times with some of the bigger clubs in these smaller.

1124
00:52:38,640 --> 00:52:41,120
Speaker 1: Leagues they're obviously used to having the. Ball they do

1125
00:52:41,160 --> 00:52:43,160
Speaker 1: a lot of build up, play not very many you,

1126
00:52:43,200 --> 00:52:46,120
Speaker 1: know counter direct. Attacks SO i Think rangers is the

1127
00:52:46,120 --> 00:52:48,680
Speaker 1: type of team that's not just gonna, say, okay let's

1128
00:52:48,719 --> 00:52:50,439
Speaker 1: just sit back in a four to four, two let's

1129
00:52:50,440 --> 00:52:52,840
Speaker 1: play two low blocks and let's defend like hell for

1130
00:52:52,920 --> 00:52:54,520
Speaker 1: ninety minutes and see if we can get a zero's yo.

1131
00:52:54,640 --> 00:52:56,359
Speaker 1: Draw that's just not how they. Play and now they're

1132
00:52:56,400 --> 00:52:58,480
Speaker 1: used to, playing and now how they're personnel are set

1133
00:52:58,560 --> 00:53:00,560
Speaker 1: up to, play so they're gonna be ready to look

1134
00:53:00,600 --> 00:53:03,480
Speaker 1: and Hit dortman on the counter going. Forward dortman did

1135
00:53:03,560 --> 00:53:06,000
Speaker 1: create one point six expected. Goals obviously they did score

1136
00:53:06,040 --> 00:53:09,400
Speaker 1: two Without holland in the. Lineup it's up in the

1137
00:53:09,440 --> 00:53:11,560
Speaker 1: air whether he's actually going to. Play my guess would

1138
00:53:11,560 --> 00:53:14,400
Speaker 1: probably be. No But dorman does have enough attacking talent

1139
00:53:14,480 --> 00:53:18,680
Speaker 1: to actually get at This rangers. Defense and since Basically

1140
00:53:18,719 --> 00:53:20,719
Speaker 1: dortmund has to go all, OUT i don't see how

1141
00:53:20,719 --> 00:53:24,640
Speaker 1: this match ends up anything less than three. GOALS i

1142
00:53:24,680 --> 00:53:27,279
Speaker 1: have three point five goals, projected so the over three

1143
00:53:27,280 --> 00:53:28,960
Speaker 1: goals is still only a minus one, ten WHICH i

1144
00:53:28,960 --> 00:53:32,560
Speaker 1: think is a fantastic price For Rangers, Dortmann.

1145
00:53:32,400 --> 00:53:35,560
Speaker 3: Anthony any Early Europa league leans for, You, yeah.

1146
00:53:35,440 --> 00:53:38,160
Speaker 2: Zen it plus a half At Real. Bettis i'm just

1147
00:53:38,200 --> 00:53:40,000
Speaker 2: Tired Real. BETTIS i mean they scored three goals on

1148
00:53:40,080 --> 00:53:45,479
Speaker 2: seven freaking shots In, russia and you know a draw

1149
00:53:45,520 --> 00:53:47,880
Speaker 2: will do For bettest to go. Through so if this

1150
00:53:47,920 --> 00:53:49,520
Speaker 2: is tied, late it's going to be. Zenate it's going

1151
00:53:49,560 --> 00:53:50,879
Speaker 2: to be pushing for the goal to try to get

1152
00:53:50,880 --> 00:53:53,399
Speaker 2: back into. This they're down one goal on aggregate going

1153
00:53:53,440 --> 00:53:55,520
Speaker 2: on the, road AND i just think this is generally

1154
00:53:55,520 --> 00:53:58,200
Speaker 2: a good matchup for a very overrated defense in bettas

1155
00:53:58,200 --> 00:54:00,400
Speaker 2: a team that can sees chances for fun and the

1156
00:54:00,440 --> 00:54:02,560
Speaker 2: team who's attacking luck it's going to run out at

1157
00:54:02,600 --> 00:54:05,080
Speaker 2: some point and they're going to. Regress So i'm banking

1158
00:54:05,080 --> 00:54:07,680
Speaker 2: on this. Again i'm betting them. AGAIN i Like zenate

1159
00:54:07,920 --> 00:54:10,279
Speaker 2: AND bj mentioned it with with The Dortmand rangers. Game

1160
00:54:10,600 --> 00:54:13,120
Speaker 2: raynon went off injured today For. Dortmund so Did Dan

1161
00:54:13,200 --> 00:54:16,680
Speaker 2: Axels zagado and A kanji status is. Uncertain he didn't play.

1162
00:54:16,680 --> 00:54:20,240
Speaker 2: Today there's a big center back issue For. Dortmund If

1163
00:54:20,360 --> 00:54:22,879
Speaker 2: zagadu can't go and The kanji can't, go it's it's

1164
00:54:22,920 --> 00:54:26,160
Speaker 2: the tumbles And Michael leeboff might be suiting up On.

1165
00:54:26,280 --> 00:54:29,960
Speaker 2: THURSDAY i mean they have nobody left and they start center. Back,

1166
00:54:30,360 --> 00:54:32,400
Speaker 2: yeah they they may have to put h you, know

1167
00:54:32,719 --> 00:54:35,040
Speaker 2: Em Ry chan there like that's an, option but then

1168
00:54:35,040 --> 00:54:37,839
Speaker 2: they're hurting the. Midfield so there's not really a clear

1169
00:54:37,880 --> 00:54:40,480
Speaker 2: plan for For dortmann with all the injuries they've had,

1170
00:54:40,520 --> 00:54:43,080
Speaker 2: defensively so that's a major. Concern Barson napoli is the.

1171
00:54:43,080 --> 00:54:45,759
Speaker 2: Headliner barsa was a little fortunate to Get napoli in

1172
00:54:45,800 --> 00:54:49,200
Speaker 2: there last. WEEK i probably lean Towards barsa on the

1173
00:54:49,239 --> 00:54:52,120
Speaker 2: road Because i'm not really, sure BUT i know the

1174
00:54:52,200 --> 00:54:54,400
Speaker 2: numbers not, there SO i probably ended up passing that.

1175
00:54:54,440 --> 00:54:57,040
Speaker 2: One Uh so that's WHAT i look look. Toward but

1176
00:54:57,120 --> 00:54:58,440
Speaker 2: the main play for me is going to Be.

1177
00:54:58,520 --> 00:55:01,560
Speaker 1: Zenate, yeah bar To napoley matches very. Interesting i'm kind

1178
00:55:01,560 --> 00:55:03,600
Speaker 1: of leaning under two and a half goals in that.

1179
00:55:03,640 --> 00:55:06,120
Speaker 1: ONE i was very interested to look at the stats from. It,

1180
00:55:06,160 --> 00:55:08,600
Speaker 1: Obviously napolei went up in the twenty ninth minute and

1181
00:55:08,640 --> 00:55:10,719
Speaker 1: they did what they kind of do against bigger sides

1182
00:55:10,760 --> 00:55:12,560
Speaker 1: when they go. Ahead they kind of tend to sit

1183
00:55:12,600 --> 00:55:15,000
Speaker 1: back defensively because they're one of the best defenses In.

1184
00:55:15,040 --> 00:55:18,920
Speaker 1: Europe barsa had twenty, shots thirty eight shot creating actions

1185
00:55:18,920 --> 00:55:21,279
Speaker 1: and thirty eight touches In napoleanes's penalty, area but they

1186
00:55:21,280 --> 00:55:22,960
Speaker 1: really couldn't do anything with. It they only had one

1187
00:55:22,960 --> 00:55:25,600
Speaker 1: point twenty five non penalty expected goals off of nineteen,

1188
00:55:25,600 --> 00:55:28,440
Speaker 1: shots which is incredibly. Inefficient but that's really no surprise

1189
00:55:28,440 --> 00:55:30,000
Speaker 1: when you have to Play napoli because they just don't

1190
00:55:30,000 --> 00:55:32,960
Speaker 1: allow big scoring. Chances it's only eight In SYRIA a this.

1191
00:55:33,040 --> 00:55:35,840
Speaker 1: Season i'll be interested to see If napley's. Okay With

1192
00:55:35,920 --> 00:55:39,160
Speaker 1: barcelona controlling the majority of the, possession obviously barsa controlled.

1193
00:55:39,200 --> 00:55:41,520
Speaker 1: ROUNDS i think it was sixty five percent in the first,

1194
00:55:41,560 --> 00:55:45,120
Speaker 1: meeting and So napoli obviously can't play for zero zero

1195
00:55:45,200 --> 00:55:47,440
Speaker 1: draw because the away goals rule Has i'm not going

1196
00:55:47,520 --> 00:55:48,359
Speaker 1: to say, chocked but it's.

1197
00:55:48,360 --> 00:55:48,880
Speaker 2: Gone it's been.

1198
00:55:48,960 --> 00:55:53,040
Speaker 1: Chocked, no it's. Gone but, overall you, Know Matt napley

1199
00:55:53,080 --> 00:55:56,400
Speaker 1: matches this season only average round two point three to

1200
00:55:56,400 --> 00:55:58,720
Speaker 1: five expected. Goals only forty four percent of the matches

1201
00:55:58,719 --> 00:56:02,000
Speaker 1: have gone over two and a half, Goals SO i

1202
00:56:02,040 --> 00:56:04,640
Speaker 1: do think it's a decent spot it's playing. Under, Obviously

1203
00:56:04,640 --> 00:56:07,360
Speaker 1: barcelona's really improved under, shobbing only allowing point nine to

1204
00:56:07,400 --> 00:56:11,799
Speaker 1: ONE xg per match and obviously Holding napoli to just

1205
00:56:11,840 --> 00:56:14,640
Speaker 1: four shots in point SIX xg and then that match

1206
00:56:14,880 --> 00:56:18,320
Speaker 1: is quite. Impressive SO i do lean under two and

1207
00:56:18,360 --> 00:56:19,239
Speaker 1: a half goals in that.

1208
00:56:19,280 --> 00:56:21,880
Speaker 3: One all, right with, that we will move on to

1209
00:56:22,280 --> 00:56:25,560
Speaker 3: the final portion of the, program our favorite bets for

1210
00:56:25,600 --> 00:56:27,360
Speaker 3: The Champions league this, WEEK.

1211
00:56:27,920 --> 00:56:31,239
Speaker 1: Bj we'll start with, You, Yeah chelsea lil under three

1212
00:56:31,280 --> 00:56:34,239
Speaker 1: goals at minus one. Forty The chelsea defense has really

1213
00:56:34,280 --> 00:56:37,400
Speaker 1: really improved over the last month or. So they're turning

1214
00:56:37,440 --> 00:56:39,759
Speaker 1: back into that dominating defensive side that we saw over

1215
00:56:39,800 --> 00:56:42,160
Speaker 1: the second half of the season Under Thomas touchel when

1216
00:56:42,160 --> 00:56:43,880
Speaker 1: they went on their run to actually win The Champions.

1217
00:56:43,960 --> 00:56:47,239
Speaker 1: League only seven point two expected goals allowed in their

1218
00:56:47,280 --> 00:56:49,920
Speaker 1: last Ten Premier league, matches and even in The Champions

1219
00:56:49,960 --> 00:56:52,160
Speaker 1: league group stage outside of the three to three chaotic

1220
00:56:52,320 --> 00:56:55,000
Speaker 1: draw With senate In, russia they only have two point

1221
00:56:55,000 --> 00:56:57,400
Speaker 1: six expected goals in their other five. Matches, now on

1222
00:56:57,400 --> 00:57:00,279
Speaker 1: the flip, side their offense has really been trend in

1223
00:57:00,320 --> 00:57:03,600
Speaker 1: the wrong. Direction they've only created five point seven expected

1224
00:57:03,640 --> 00:57:06,080
Speaker 1: goals in their last six, matches and they'll be facing

1225
00:57:06,280 --> 00:57:08,560
Speaker 1: the best defense In, france who is also due for

1226
00:57:08,600 --> 00:57:11,960
Speaker 1: some positive. Aggression lil has allowed thirty five goals off

1227
00:57:11,960 --> 00:57:14,720
Speaker 1: of only twenty seven point four expected goals this. Season

1228
00:57:14,960 --> 00:57:16,560
Speaker 1: it's a side that's going to be happy to sit

1229
00:57:16,600 --> 00:57:18,480
Speaker 1: back in a four to four to, two play incredibly

1230
00:57:18,520 --> 00:57:20,600
Speaker 1: defensive and try to Hit chelsea on the. Counter so

1231
00:57:21,000 --> 00:57:23,040
Speaker 1: With chelsea's offense heading in the wrong, direction and they're

1232
00:57:23,040 --> 00:57:25,840
Speaker 1: also going to be without their best attacking midfield Or Mason,

1233
00:57:25,880 --> 00:57:28,960
Speaker 1: mount it's a Matchup. RICE i don't really see how

1234
00:57:28,960 --> 00:57:30,400
Speaker 1: either team is really going to put the ball on

1235
00:57:30,440 --> 00:57:32,760
Speaker 1: the back of the that multiple, Times SO i only

1236
00:57:32,840 --> 00:57:35,720
Speaker 1: have two point one goals projected for, it So i'm

1237
00:57:35,760 --> 00:57:37,440
Speaker 1: happy to take under three goals at minus one.

1238
00:57:37,520 --> 00:57:39,480
Speaker 3: Forty my best bet will stay in that.

1239
00:57:39,520 --> 00:57:40,600
Speaker 1: MATCH i Like lil.

1240
00:57:40,760 --> 00:57:42,440
Speaker 3: Plus eight to fifty on the money. Line that's in

1241
00:57:42,480 --> 00:57:46,200
Speaker 3: a ten point five percent implied. Probability with the Way

1242
00:57:46,240 --> 00:57:48,960
Speaker 3: chelsea's playing right, NOW i don't think that number is

1243
00:57:49,720 --> 00:57:53,600
Speaker 3: fair at all to The french. Side Leis DOUG'S i

1244
00:57:53,600 --> 00:57:55,880
Speaker 3: guess you would call them the Mass. Stiffs that's their.

1245
00:57:55,960 --> 00:57:59,400
Speaker 3: Nickname like be just, said an elite defensive side taking

1246
00:57:59,440 --> 00:58:02,960
Speaker 3: on a tea And chelsea that is creating under one

1247
00:58:03,000 --> 00:58:06,240
Speaker 3: expected goal in their last five. Matches they just are

1248
00:58:06,280 --> 00:58:08,280
Speaker 3: not on it right. Now they have a look ahead.

1249
00:58:08,280 --> 00:58:09,480
Speaker 3: Spot It's anthony described.

1250
00:58:09,520 --> 00:58:10,560
Speaker 2: Earlier with a.

1251
00:58:10,480 --> 00:58:14,000
Speaker 3: Cup final coming this weekend Against. Liverpool they just traveled

1252
00:58:14,000 --> 00:58:16,479
Speaker 3: back from The Middle east playing in THE Uefa Club World.

1253
00:58:16,520 --> 00:58:19,760
Speaker 3: Cup this is a good spot to take a shot

1254
00:58:19,800 --> 00:58:21,880
Speaker 3: Against chelsea and you're getting plus eight fifty to do

1255
00:58:21,920 --> 00:58:26,000
Speaker 3: it on one of the best defensive sides In. Europe

1256
00:58:26,160 --> 00:58:28,520
Speaker 3: you can expect a pretty low. Event game should be

1257
00:58:28,560 --> 00:58:32,080
Speaker 3: closer to twenty. PERCENT i would Say lil has a

1258
00:58:32,160 --> 00:58:35,120
Speaker 3: chance to go To Stanford bridge to pull the, Upset

1259
00:58:35,280 --> 00:58:39,280
Speaker 3: so give Me Les dogs plus eight. Fifty, anthony what

1260
00:58:39,400 --> 00:58:39,840
Speaker 3: is your favorite?

1261
00:58:39,880 --> 00:58:42,360
Speaker 2: Bet, Yeah i'm going with THE iax money line minus one.

1262
00:58:42,520 --> 00:58:46,120
Speaker 2: Fifteen on the road At, benfica Vill rial kind of

1263
00:58:46,120 --> 00:58:47,560
Speaker 2: moved out a range for, me So i'm going WITH,

1264
00:58:47,680 --> 00:58:50,480
Speaker 2: Iax AND i think the reality here Is benfica is

1265
00:58:50,520 --> 00:58:53,120
Speaker 2: one of three teams who came into this knockout stage

1266
00:58:53,200 --> 00:58:55,800
Speaker 2: with a negative expected goal difference in the group. Stage

1267
00:58:55,840 --> 00:58:59,040
Speaker 2: and yes to small, sample but the history of those

1268
00:58:59,200 --> 00:59:02,400
Speaker 2: teams and how they performed in the knockout stage thereafter

1269
00:59:02,800 --> 00:59:05,720
Speaker 2: is extremely. Bleak teams getting four or five goals hung

1270
00:59:05,760 --> 00:59:08,120
Speaker 2: on them by the superior sides that they when they

1271
00:59:08,240 --> 00:59:10,200
Speaker 2: end up facing. Them we just saw this last week

1272
00:59:10,400 --> 00:59:13,600
Speaker 2: With sporting going up Against Manchester. City. WEILL iax has

1273
00:59:13,600 --> 00:59:15,959
Speaker 2: had some of the most elite attacking numbers in the entire,

1274
00:59:16,000 --> 00:59:19,840
Speaker 2: tournament thus far second most expected goals For they've been

1275
00:59:19,880 --> 00:59:24,040
Speaker 2: the best overall attack Besides byron in this. Tournament so WHILE,

1276
00:59:24,360 --> 00:59:26,720
Speaker 2: iax you, know maybe we're getting to the height of

1277
00:59:26,760 --> 00:59:30,160
Speaker 2: the market here on, THEM i Think benfica's older center

1278
00:59:30,160 --> 00:59:31,920
Speaker 2: backs are going to have a major issue going up

1279
00:59:31,960 --> 00:59:34,840
Speaker 2: against guys Like antony and going up Against sebastian Hall,

1280
00:59:34,880 --> 00:59:37,520
Speaker 2: air who are younger andre technically really. Gifted SO i

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00:59:37,520 --> 00:59:40,080
Speaker 2: think THIS ix truck will continue to roll AND i

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00:59:40,080 --> 00:59:42,360
Speaker 2: think I x will, win So i'm happy to play

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00:59:42,400 --> 00:59:42,840
Speaker 2: them minus one.

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00:59:42,960 --> 00:59:46,160
Speaker 3: Fifteen all, Right that does it for this episode Of Wonder.

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00:59:46,200 --> 00:59:49,160
Speaker 3: Goal we will be back On thursday morning to preview

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00:59:49,200 --> 00:59:51,720
Speaker 3: The Premier league and give out some bets all Across

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00:59:51,840 --> 00:59:55,280
Speaker 3: europe For Anthony, dubundo FOR Bj. Cunningham I'm Michael Lee

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00:59:55,320 --> 00:59:57,200
Speaker 3: buff wishing you the best of luck with Your Champions

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00:59:57,280 --> 00:59:58,640
Speaker 3: league bets this week