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Speaker 1: Oh well, come in hour number two Clay Travis buck

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Speaker 1: Sexton show. Appreciate all of you hanging out with us.

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Speaker 1: As we have prepared to go very soon under forty

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Speaker 1: days until the election. We are inching closer and closer.

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Speaker 1: We want to continue to emphasize to all of you,

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Speaker 1: get out, make your voices heard, vote as early as

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Speaker 1: you possibly can. Buck interesting data points, and we're going

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Speaker 1: to talk with Ryan Gurdusky here in a moment. But

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Speaker 1: I saw this come across and I thought it was

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Speaker 1: super interesting. So Notre Dame has been doing polling of

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Speaker 1: its college students for many years and they say, Okay,

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Speaker 1: you're going to vote for the Republic and you're going

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Speaker 1: to vote for the Democrat. And this year Notre Dame students,

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Speaker 1: according to this poll that just came out, they are

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Speaker 1: going to vote for Donald Trump forty eight to forty six.

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Speaker 1: Other Libertarian candidates whatnot will get additional support.

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Speaker 2: Indiana.

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Speaker 1: Notre Dame is in Indiana, in South Bend, Indiana, Mayor

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Speaker 1: Pete's beloved hometown for those of you who wonder where

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Speaker 1: Mayor Pete came from. But it is in many ways

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Speaker 1: a melting pot buck of Midwestern voters Now, Notre Dame

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Speaker 1: has very much of a national brand, so I'm sure

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Speaker 1: they have students on that campus from all fifty states.

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Speaker 1: But I would assume that the overwhelming majority of the

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Speaker 1: geography of Notre Dame residents is Northeast or Midwest, right.

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Speaker 1: I don't think there's some massive amount of Southern kids

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Speaker 1: that make the trip to Notre Dame. I don't think

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Speaker 1: that they draw overwhelmingly from the West coast. All those things. Again,

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Speaker 1: all fifty states would be represented, but I would stay

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Speaker 1: in general, as a Catholic institution, a lot of people

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Speaker 1: from the Northeast, a lot of people from the Midwest.

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Speaker 1: With that square roughly buck with what you would expect

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Speaker 1: of their student body. In other words, this is not Alabama,

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Speaker 1: this is not this is not Tennessee, this is not

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Speaker 1: some SEC school fan base. Forty eight forty six for

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Speaker 1: Trump is actually pretty interesting. And then I want to

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Speaker 1: hit you with these two data points. Buck and Ryan Gerduski,

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Speaker 1: who's going to join us the bottom of the hour,

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Speaker 1: shared this. In twenty twenty, Biden won among Notre Dame

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Speaker 1: students sixty six to twenty nine. So four years later,

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Speaker 1: Trump is now beating Kamala with Notre Dame students. In

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty, they voted sixty six for twenty nine. In

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Speaker 1: twenty sixteen, they voted fifty nine to twenty four for

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Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton. Suddenly Trump is winning this college campus after

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Speaker 1: losing massively in sixteen and twenty. This is to me

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Speaker 1: a sign of what you might start to see in

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Speaker 1: the Midwest. Does it jump out to you, I mean,

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Speaker 1: that's a pretty massive shift in four years.

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Speaker 3: Yes, But I can't say it's surprising really, because when

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Speaker 3: you look at what Kamala Harris would have to do

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Speaker 3: to beat Trump, you would have to say, here are

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Speaker 3: the constituencies within the you know, one hundred and one

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Speaker 3: hundred and fifty million votes something like that.

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Speaker 2: Is one hundred and fifty six twenty twenty.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, here are the uh, you know, the the two

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Speaker 3: or three million people spread across the following states that

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Speaker 3: will make well, there might be a lot less than that,

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Speaker 3: but I'm just talking about who she's trying to have.

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Speaker 3: Is the addressable market? You know they would say in

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Speaker 3: business right, who who is it that she's trying to get?

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Speaker 3: Is Kamala going to outperform Joe Biden with black voters?

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Speaker 3: I think the answer is no, I agree. Is Kamala

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Speaker 3: going to outperform And we're gonna talk to Ryan Grduski

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Speaker 3: at the bottom of the hour about this. Kama going

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Speaker 3: to outperform Biden and Hillary with women voters doesn't seem

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Speaker 3: like that's really the case. So this is where you

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Speaker 3: get into who matters in the persuadables. Did you see

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Speaker 3: there was a poll out that Trump is winning the

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Speaker 3: national Hispanic vote right now, Yes, which is stunning. Okay,

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Speaker 3: a majority of the nationwide Hispanic vote. That's fantastic. Into

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Speaker 3: all of our Hispanic American listeners, this is great news.

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Speaker 3: We're very pleased. But Hispanics are congregated in states that, unfortunately,

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Speaker 3: are not really up for grabs, right, I mean, most

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Speaker 3: Hispanics are not in states that are the battlegrounds. So

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Speaker 3: that doesn't you know what I mean, that doesn't really matter.

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Speaker 3: For Kamo to win, she'd have to win. I don't

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Speaker 3: even know how many more black votes she could get

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Speaker 3: in those states than Biden got, right, and she's underperforming

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Speaker 3: right now. She'd have to flip a lot of women

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Speaker 3: voters who already voted for Biden and came over to

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Speaker 3: her side. I don't think that's gonna you know, or

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Speaker 3: rather she had to flip. A lot of voters were

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Speaker 3: female in general. I don't know where they would come from.

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Speaker 3: And then you have the white working class.

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Speaker 2: That's it. She's already got. You know.

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Speaker 3: You know what I'm saying, Everybody who is going to

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Speaker 3: vote for Biden is already going to vote for Kamala.

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Speaker 3: What does she bring to the table that Biden didn't

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Speaker 3: in terms of voters? I just don't see it. And

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Speaker 3: we'll talk to Ryan and he'll tell me if I'm wrong,

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Speaker 3: because he likes to do that, so we'll see what

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Speaker 3: he says.

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Speaker 1: So this, again, Notre Dame student poll, I just think

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Speaker 1: is super fascinating as a data point.

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Speaker 2: The other one that I saw.

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Speaker 1: Buck is do you see the Gallup party registration poll

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Speaker 1: that came out that now has Republicans in the Gallup

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Speaker 1: poll up forty eight to forty five, and it has

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Speaker 1: nearly mirrored to perfection the overall national vote tally. There

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Speaker 1: is now talk out there that Trump may be able

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Speaker 1: to contend in the national popular vote as well. And

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Speaker 1: this is honestly not a crazy contention. I mean, Quinnipiac

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Speaker 1: yesterday had Trump up one CNN had either Kamala up

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Speaker 1: one or a tie. The point on this is, if

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Speaker 1: Trump is close to even he's gonna win a landslide

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Speaker 1: in the electoral college. I think there are a lot

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Speaker 1: of panic and nervousness coming up. And also I think

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Speaker 1: some of the closing arguments are not actually registering at all. MSNBC,

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Speaker 1: did you see this? Buck had a panel of voters

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Speaker 1: in the Midwest and they wanted to talk about what

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Speaker 1: they thought of January sixth, and it did not go

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Speaker 1: like MSNBC hoped that it would go.

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Speaker 2: Can we play the jan six panel? Please talk to.

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Speaker 4: Me about your level of interest in the terminal charges

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Speaker 4: and so forth. February sixth, January sixth.

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Speaker 1: So I remember that day.

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Speaker 4: I know he was the standing president.

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Speaker 5: I'm not familiar with the chargers that are getting brought

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Speaker 5: against him for that.

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Speaker 1: I don't I'm not following that charge for the There's

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Speaker 1: multiple court cases going on.

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Speaker 6: I'm just not familiar with them.

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Speaker 4: I mean, that doesn't sound like it's going to be

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Speaker 4: a factor in deciding who to vote for. No, Okay,

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Speaker 4: so when I say January sixth, what do you think?

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Speaker 5: Oh, I just remember seeing it on the news, like

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Speaker 5: all the riots and stuff. Don't really know what it

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Speaker 5: was about her what happened though.

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Speaker 4: I mean, how did it make you feel when you

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Speaker 4: saw it?

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Speaker 5: Oh?

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Speaker 7: I don't know.

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Speaker 5: I don't really feel any way about it. I don't.

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Speaker 5: I mean, people showed their emotion. I guess probably in

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Speaker 5: the wrong way, but it happened, Buck.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I think this is how most normal people,

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Speaker 1: nearly four years later respond to January sixth I think

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Speaker 1: Democrats drove it into the ground. Whatever last vestige of

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Speaker 1: power it had they drung out in the midterms. And

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Speaker 1: I love her trying to just probe what it has

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Speaker 1: to Really, no, no, not at all. Well, she thinks,

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Speaker 1: whoever this reporter is, I don't even I don't know.

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Speaker 1: I'm just hearing her voice.

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Speaker 3: But she's a journalist and she's asking about this, and

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Speaker 3: she's not getting the answer she wants.

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Speaker 2: You know, you know what.

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Speaker 3: She thinks it's the worst attack on this country since

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Speaker 3: the Civil War, which means it's worse than nine to

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Speaker 3: eleven in her mind. It's worse than Pearl Harbor in

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Speaker 3: her mind, which is insane both counts. I mean, just

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Speaker 3: completely divorced from reality. But journalists have been programmed like

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Speaker 3: robots to say this and you are you know, at

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Speaker 3: this stage play to step away from that would be

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Speaker 3: an unpardonable sin among the journals.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, I think that.

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Speaker 3: They are great have greatly overestimated how much January sixth

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Speaker 3: is going to help.

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Speaker 2: Them its selection.

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Speaker 3: I also think that there's a sense that there was

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Speaker 3: an unwillingness to allow the American people to just have

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Speaker 3: a free and fair election because of all the prosecutions

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Speaker 3: of Trump. You know, if January sixth is so bad.

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Speaker 2: The worst attack since the Civil War.

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Speaker 3: Why can't you just let the American people then have

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Speaker 3: their referendum? And whether they think it was so bad,

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Speaker 3: why do you have to have all the sham trials,

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Speaker 3: Why do you have the you know, the civil trials

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Speaker 3: and the criminal trials, and you know what I mean,

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Speaker 3: there's something bizarre about all of that, because if it's

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Speaker 3: so clear to you that this was such an all

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Speaker 3: that January was so awful that it makes Trump unacceptable, well,

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Speaker 3: won't the American people find that way? The answer we

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Speaker 3: all know it was, of course, the American people don't

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Speaker 3: think that. Journals think that, and Democrats who hate Trump

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Speaker 3: and people Trump derangement syndrome. Think it was the worst

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Speaker 3: attack since, you know, since the Civil War.

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Speaker 2: Whatever.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, And I just I look at this Buck, and

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Speaker 1: I can't escape the conclusion that Kamala Harris's campaign is

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Speaker 1: really starting to flounder. And I can't stop laughing about

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Speaker 1: Biden's team going to argue either. I saw our good

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Speaker 1: friend Moron Sunny Houston on the View compared Biden to

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Speaker 1: George Washington. But that's really what they're going to try

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Speaker 1: to roll with if Kamala Harris wins. But if she loses,

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Speaker 1: and I do think she's gonna lose, it's gonna be

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Speaker 1: one of the most epic election nights and election weeks

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Speaker 1: that we have ever seen because Democrats are going to

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Speaker 1: turn on each other with a fury and everything we've

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Speaker 1: been saying on this program, Wait, are we sure we

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Speaker 1: want to elevate the least popular vice presidential candidate of

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Speaker 1: all time? Does it really make sense to have somebody

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Speaker 1: as our nominee who's never gotten a vote? You know

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Speaker 1: what else is going to get dissected in.

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Speaker 2: A big way.

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Speaker 1: Buck, Tim Walls as the VP over Josh Shapiro is

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Speaker 1: one of the most If she loses Pennsylvania by twenty

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Speaker 1: five or thirty thousand votes, as she might, it will

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Speaker 1: be seen as one of the most catastrophic vice presidential

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Speaker 1: choices of all time. Now, you may be right that

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Speaker 1: Jos Shapiro wasn't that excited to hit hitch his cart

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Speaker 1: to Kamala Harris's campaign. But I just get I get

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Speaker 1: giddy just thinking about how this is all going to

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Speaker 1: play out.

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Speaker 3: I was wondering about this because the Hillary. One of

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Speaker 3: my great regrets is that I was so elated in

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Speaker 3: twenty sixteen when Trump won and how to just find

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Speaker 3: my friends who were conservatives. So because it was I mean,

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Speaker 3: I lived in I lived in the Flat Iron district

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Speaker 3: of New York.

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Speaker 2: You were close to Hillary's celebration party.

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Speaker 3: My big regret is that I just didn't think, dude,

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Speaker 3: go over there, right.

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Speaker 2: I could have walked.

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Speaker 3: I could have walked to the Javits Convention Center and

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Speaker 3: just seen the wreckage of the hopes.

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Speaker 2: And dreams of the Hillary campaign.

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Speaker 3: They were all because I heard later they were all crying,

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Speaker 3: and you know, all the male feminists were crying, and

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Speaker 3: you know they were asking their wives to hold them.

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Speaker 3: And anyway, I wish I had gone to see that

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Speaker 3: do you know where Kamala's campaign headquarters is. I had

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Speaker 3: to look this up, so I'm not trying to put

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Speaker 3: you Well, they kept it in Delaware, right because kept

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Speaker 3: it in Wilmington, Delaware, which I don't even you know,

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Speaker 3: you don't hear much about that. I never I've taken

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Speaker 3: a train through. I've never been in Wilmington, Delaware. There's

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Speaker 3: a part of me that's like, man, it might be

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Speaker 3: kind of fun to be at the Kamala headquarters or

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Speaker 3: with an earshot of it on election night, but it'd

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Speaker 3: be really sad if you're there and they're actually very

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Speaker 3: happy because she won.

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Speaker 2: So that's a dangerous game to play.

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Speaker 1: Story just breaking buck, This is interesting. I mean it's

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Speaker 1: not groundbreaking, but Kamala Harris says she owns a handgun.

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Speaker 1: In two thousand and five, she wanted handguns mandatory confiscated

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Speaker 1: in San Francisco.

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Speaker 2: Do you think she actually owns a handgun? I don't.

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Speaker 2: I'm going to tell you this, Yeah, I I do.

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Speaker 2: I do not believe her. And the thing is we'll

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Speaker 2: never really be able to you know.

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Speaker 3: It's she could say that she bought it from somebody

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Speaker 3: in a private sale or something and there's always ways

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Speaker 3: around this.

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Speaker 2: I don't know. I don't believe it. Do you believe it?

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Speaker 2: The only reason I think she might have had a

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Speaker 2: handgun is because she will choose the DA.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, because like DA's you know, they they if she had,

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Speaker 1: if she.

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Speaker 3: Has it, well, here's what I would say. I do

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Speaker 3: not believe that she went of her own accord to

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Speaker 3: buy a handgun as a private citizen. If she has

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Speaker 3: a handgun, it's a leave behind from when she's the DA.

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Speaker 3: And I would say I would bet money that she

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Speaker 3: has not been to a shooting range in I don't know,

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Speaker 3: five years. Wouldn't there be a video of her somewhere

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Speaker 3: shooting if she actually had a handgun, like that she

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Speaker 3: legit instead of somebody just giving her a gun in

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Speaker 3: a case that she put in her car and just

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Speaker 3: kind of drove around with or whatever.

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Speaker 2: You know, Well, if if somebody asked me, hey, Bud,

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Speaker 2: if the fuck are you a gun owner? Be like

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Speaker 2: am I a gun owner?

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Speaker 7: Like?

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Speaker 3: Oh man, I was like, I got I've got my

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Speaker 3: I've got my Grizzly nine millimeter from Bear Creek. I've

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Speaker 3: got my BC fifteen, I've got a clock nineteen, I've

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Speaker 3: got a staccato c too. You know, i'd list all

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Speaker 3: the guns and all the all the optics and all.

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Speaker 3: This is what people own guns can do because they

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Speaker 3: actually pay attention to this stuff. I wish they had

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Speaker 3: said what kind of gun do you have? Well, I

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Speaker 3: think Trump, because I think she would have said one

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Speaker 3: of the ones that goes bang. You know, she has

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Speaker 3: no idea. I think you're right on that. We'll read

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Speaker 3: into some of more of these stories. I remember she

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Speaker 3: called Donald Trump a liar for saying that she wanted

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Speaker 3: to take away people's guns in two thousand and five.

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Speaker 3: She would have she supported the banning of buying, selling,

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Speaker 3: or possessing handguns in San Francisco. She was going to

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Speaker 3: take people's guns away in San Francisco. It's crazy. We'll

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Speaker 3: dive into that here in just a second. I just

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Speaker 3: mentioned Barrack Creek Arsenal because I've got my BC fifteen.

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Speaker 3: I'm going shooting this weekend out at the range. So

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Speaker 3: that's the Bear Creek Arsenal, one of their AR fifteen's.

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Speaker 3: You know, they make whole complete firearms. They also have

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Speaker 3: the best selection and the best prices on uppers for

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Speaker 3: your rifle that you will find absolutely anywhere. I've been

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Speaker 3: to their factory in North Carolina, as you know, did

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Speaker 3: some shooting there. We had a great time. And this

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Speaker 3: weekend I'm going out with the CEO of Bear Creek

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Speaker 3: and we're just gonna have a whole day at the range.

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Speaker 3: We're going to try out all the different Bear Creek

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Speaker 3: Barcreek pistols and rifles that I have, and we're going

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Speaker 3: to just put them through the test, because so far,

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Speaker 3: every time I go out to the range, I'm like,

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Speaker 3: I just wish I had known about Barrack Creek Arsenal

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Speaker 3: a long time ago. And look, if you're saying, you know, Buck,

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Speaker 3: I don't have any room in the gun safe right

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Speaker 3: now for another rifle. Get in upper receiver from Bear

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Speaker 3: Creek Arsenal. You can get them for a couple of

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Speaker 3: you know, in the couple of hundred bucks range. The

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Speaker 3: prices are unbeatable. And I'm talking about full bolt carrier,

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Speaker 3: everything that you need to just change up the caliber

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Speaker 3: on your rifle. Bear Creek Arsenal has you covered. Go

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Speaker 3: to Barcreek Arsenal dot com use coupon code Buck. You

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Speaker 3: save ten percent off your first order. Also hunting season,

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Speaker 3: they've got great rifle, super accurate, unbeatable prices.

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Speaker 2: Hunting season, gets yourself a new rifle.

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Speaker 3: Right We're in the season right now in a lot

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Speaker 3: of places, or are coming up on the season. Depends

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Speaker 3: where you are, depends what you're going for. Bearcreekarsenal dot

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Speaker 3: ten percent discount off your first order. And also, just

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Speaker 3: let me say, Bear Creek Arsenal are patriots and their

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Speaker 3: Second Amendment defenders. They're all about our right as Americans

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Speaker 3: as citizens to bear arms. And you should stand with

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Speaker 3: companies as two way people. You should stand with companies

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Speaker 3: that do what they do, which is stand with show

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Speaker 3: like this one. They don't run away from all. We're

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Speaker 3: firearms company, but we don't want people to know that

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Speaker 3: we sow firearms. There's a lot of that out there.

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Speaker 3: I'll tell you Bear Creek Arsenal the real deal. Go

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Speaker 3: buck for ten percent off. Two guys walk up to

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Speaker 3: a mic.

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Speaker 8: Anything goes Clay Travis and Fuck Sexton. Find them on

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Speaker 8: the free iHeartRadio app or wherever you get your podcasts.

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Speaker 2: Ah Yes Nancy Pelosi. This is a fun one.

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Speaker 3: She got a little snippy with Jake Tapper because mister

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Speaker 3: Tapper and CNN started reading.

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Speaker 2: Some of Trump's criticisms of Comma. This is cut twenty player.

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump saying that Kamala Harins says bigger cognitive problems

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Speaker 1: than Joe Biden.

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Speaker 2: Why would you even cover that?

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Speaker 7: This is a person who's not on the level. He

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Speaker 7: is their nominee for president, He is incompetent. Let's not

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Speaker 7: even talk about the silliness of it all and the

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Speaker 7: weirdness of it all, the assault on women that it is.

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Speaker 2: We're not going to talk issues.

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Speaker 3: I just I just love that that Pelosi is like

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Speaker 3: ready to send Tapper to bed without his supper.

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Speaker 2: She's like, how don't dare you, Jake?

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Speaker 3: I know what time it is. We're supposed to be

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Speaker 3: all in for Kamala. I'm not gonna lie.

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Speaker 1: I secretly respect that Nancy Pelosi just makes so many

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Speaker 1: people her bitch. I mean, she just slaps people around, right,

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Speaker 1: Like how many actual Republicans will slap around media figures

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Speaker 1: like Nancy Pelosi does.

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Speaker 2: I don't agree with her politics, but I.

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Speaker 3: Respect she's with brass knuckles and we don't have that

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Speaker 3: on our side.

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Speaker 1: There's so many people who are like, oh, if we're

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Speaker 1: just a little nice or maybe they'll respect us more.

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Speaker 1: And Nancy Pelosi just walks in and slaps that phony

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Speaker 1: Jake Tapper right in the face live on television. I

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Speaker 1: kind of respect it. I mean, I disagree with her,

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Speaker 1: but I respect it.

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Speaker 2: Pelosi.

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Speaker 3: All this talk about the new iPhone sixteen reminds me

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00:17:56,080 --> 00:17:58,399
Speaker 3: that we still get jazz about a new device and

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Speaker 3: what it can do. Phones will be with us for

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Speaker 3: the rest of our lives, in one form or another,

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Speaker 3: and so with that cell phone build that comes with it.

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Speaker 3: Puretalk wants your cell phone to be the lowest it

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Speaker 3: can be, and there's good logic that goes with it.

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Speaker 3: They can offer superior service at the lowest price. You'll

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Speaker 3: be a customer for life. And one way that Puretalk

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Speaker 3: does that is making sure you're not paying for data

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Speaker 3: you don't use. Most cell phone companies want that. That's

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Speaker 3: how they're making their money. They're charging you more and

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Speaker 3: not giving you what you need. Puretalk has plans that

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Speaker 3: started twenty five dollars with data that's going to be

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Speaker 3: enough for a vast majority of the phone customer consumers

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Speaker 3: out there having one of these plans, keep your cell phone,

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Speaker 3: they'll lower for just twenty five dollars a month. With

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Speaker 3: pure Talk you get a limited talk text and five

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Speaker 3: ten hours of video. Make the switch to Puretalk. Dial

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Speaker 3: pound two fifty, say Clay and Buck. You'll save fifty

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Speaker 3: percent off your first month. Again Dial pound two five

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Speaker 3: zero say Clay and Buck. We walk back in Clay

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Speaker 3: Travis Buck Sexton Show. We are joined now by Ryan Gerdusky,

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Speaker 3: National populist newsletter, founder of the seventeen seventy six Project Pack,

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Speaker 3: and I've been reading his substack I believe it is,

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00:19:08,280 --> 00:19:11,600
Speaker 3: which has a lot of data and analytics as it

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Speaker 3: pertains to election data out there.

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Speaker 2: And Ryan, I want to start with this.

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Speaker 1: I think I read this on Friday of last week

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Speaker 1: or thereabouts, maybe over the weekend. You went into the

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Speaker 1: cross tabs and kind of looked at the data coming

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Speaker 1: out of Pennsylvania and you've compared it to twenty sixteen

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Speaker 1: and twenty twenty and your theory of why these polls

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Speaker 1: have drastically under reported Donald Trump's strength and sixteen and

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Speaker 1: twenty is older white voters being underrepresented and not accurately

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Speaker 1: reflected in poll results. Walk our audience through it. I

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Speaker 1: found it to be a really persuasive argument.

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Speaker 6: Right. So, on the National Populous newsletter on Substack, which

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Speaker 6: is my substack, Nate Cohen, who runs the New York

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Speaker 6: Times polling staff at Sanna University, they had Trump tied

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Speaker 6: nationally but losing Pennsylvania by four. And the big question

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Speaker 6: was why Nate Cohene even went through Twitter and said

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Speaker 6: again was responding people saying, well, it's not through this

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Speaker 6: sub group. It's not through this subgroup. And the group

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Speaker 6: he'd never mentioned was seniors. In the New York Times

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Speaker 6: Santa Pol Nationally, Trump is winning seniors by six. This

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Speaker 6: is a group that he won them by four last time,

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Speaker 6: and he won them by I think it was nine

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Speaker 6: the time. Before then, republic seniors had voted Republican in

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Speaker 6: every election, majority in every election going back at least

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Speaker 6: twenty five years. So it is a very good assumption

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Speaker 6: to say seniors will be voting Republican this time as well.

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Speaker 6: Seniors in Pennsylvania vote to the right of seniors nationally.

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Speaker 6: So in twenty twelve, Romney won seniors nationally by twelve.

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Speaker 6: He won seniors in Pennsylvania by fourteen. In sixteen, Trump

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Speaker 6: won them by nine nationally, ten in Pennsylvania. In twenty

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Speaker 6: Trump won them by four nationally seven in Pennsylvania, so

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Speaker 6: they vote to the right. In the New York Times poll,

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Speaker 6: Trump is winning seniors nationally by six but losing seniors

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Speaker 6: in Pennsylvania by three. Now I know they say, don't

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Speaker 6: get sit there, don't get so tied up in in

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Speaker 6: cross tabs. But at the same exact time, this is

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Speaker 6: not a cross tub of like Hispanics, which make a

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Speaker 6: five percent of Pennsylvania, so they have extremely high margins

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Speaker 6: of error. Seniors in Pennsylvania are a third of voters.

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Speaker 6: The margin of era is fairly low. He probably will

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Speaker 6: be winning seniors by close to ten points, which is

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Speaker 6: a if the national poll is correct at six, they'll

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Speaker 6: probably win close to ten points among seniors. And that

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Speaker 6: thirteen point difference is the margin between him winning or losing.

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Speaker 6: And I only made a big point of the New

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Speaker 6: York Times poll is because in all these polling aggregators.

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Speaker 6: Nate Silver wrote to the White House, the economists, the

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Speaker 6: New York Times, Sanapol puts a lot they put a

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Speaker 6: lot of weight into that polling institution. So when they

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Speaker 6: all sit there and say, well, Harris's favor to win Pennsylvania,

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Speaker 6: a lot of it is because of the New York

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Speaker 6: Times sandapol, which I think personally as this flaw of

438
00:22:01,320 --> 00:22:04,600
Speaker 6: not correctly waiting the senior vote. And it's the same mistake,

439
00:22:04,640 --> 00:22:07,159
Speaker 6: I mind you, that they made in twenty twenty and

440
00:22:07,320 --> 00:22:10,320
Speaker 6: in twenty sixteen, but more especially in twenty twenty when

441
00:22:10,320 --> 00:22:13,240
Speaker 6: they were looking at how Biden and Trump were going

442
00:22:13,280 --> 00:22:16,280
Speaker 6: to do. It was the same exact group because liberal seniors,

443
00:22:16,359 --> 00:22:19,040
Speaker 6: older liberals who like listen to Rachel Mattow every day

444
00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:21,960
Speaker 6: and thinks she's the voice of God, really love to

445
00:22:22,000 --> 00:22:24,359
Speaker 6: tell strangers their opinions on Donald Trump.

446
00:22:25,800 --> 00:22:32,119
Speaker 3: Ryan, if you had to assess whether the Kamala campaign

447
00:22:32,920 --> 00:22:36,360
Speaker 3: is based on the data aware that they are behind,

448
00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:37,720
Speaker 3: they obviously won't say that.

449
00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:39,640
Speaker 2: Is it clear enough?

450
00:22:39,680 --> 00:22:41,879
Speaker 3: You think that even that they would know, even if

451
00:22:41,920 --> 00:22:45,000
Speaker 3: they won't say it publicly, that they're trailing. And also,

452
00:22:45,240 --> 00:22:47,760
Speaker 3: what's your assessment of Kamala with women?

453
00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:51,840
Speaker 6: So that's a really great question, abou Kamala of women

454
00:22:51,920 --> 00:22:55,000
Speaker 6: because the perception out in the media, and I guess

455
00:22:55,040 --> 00:22:57,679
Speaker 6: The perception for even myself as a voter, was that

456
00:22:57,840 --> 00:23:00,960
Speaker 6: Kamala is going to break all the numbers of women,

457
00:23:01,080 --> 00:23:04,000
Speaker 6: record breaking support among women. And I decided on the

458
00:23:04,040 --> 00:23:07,480
Speaker 6: substack National Popyist newsletter substack to break down all the polling.

459
00:23:07,480 --> 00:23:09,560
Speaker 6: And I broke it down between two sets of polls,

460
00:23:09,720 --> 00:23:12,480
Speaker 6: polls that have Kamala's surging with more than a four

461
00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:16,239
Speaker 6: percent margin of victory nationwide and polls that have a

462
00:23:16,359 --> 00:23:20,600
Speaker 6: very very close election. And shockingly, Kamala performs with women

463
00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:24,280
Speaker 6: the same exact way. In both sets of polls. She

464
00:23:24,400 --> 00:23:28,520
Speaker 6: beats Donald Trump on average by fifteen points. No matter

465
00:23:28,560 --> 00:23:31,199
Speaker 6: if the race shows at being very tied or the

466
00:23:31,280 --> 00:23:36,479
Speaker 6: ratios that Kamala blowout the polling, the pulling difference is

467
00:23:36,480 --> 00:23:39,320
Speaker 6: not among women. She does not perform any better with

468
00:23:39,359 --> 00:23:42,800
Speaker 6: women than Joe Biden did or Hillary Clinton did. It's

469
00:23:42,880 --> 00:23:45,920
Speaker 6: they both had about a fifteen point margin over Donald

470
00:23:45,920 --> 00:23:49,560
Speaker 6: Trump in twenty twenty and twenty sixteen, respectively. So she

471
00:23:49,680 --> 00:23:52,320
Speaker 6: is not winning over many new women voters. This whole

472
00:23:52,359 --> 00:23:55,720
Speaker 6: perception that there's this army of pro choice women who

473
00:23:56,160 --> 00:23:58,920
Speaker 6: never voted before and they're voting for the very first time,

474
00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:02,400
Speaker 6: that one isn't true historically, but true, it's not even

475
00:24:02,440 --> 00:24:06,040
Speaker 6: in the data this time. The entire difference is among men.

476
00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:08,800
Speaker 6: The big question is is Donald Trump going to perform

477
00:24:08,840 --> 00:24:11,399
Speaker 6: his Joe Biden numbers among men when he won men

478
00:24:11,600 --> 00:24:14,560
Speaker 6: by a four point margin or somewhere around there, or

479
00:24:14,720 --> 00:24:16,760
Speaker 6: is going to perform among men like he did against

480
00:24:16,800 --> 00:24:19,639
Speaker 6: Hillary Clinton, which was an eleven point margin. That's the

481
00:24:19,840 --> 00:24:23,280
Speaker 6: entire really difference. And they break into different subcategories like

482
00:24:23,320 --> 00:24:25,960
Speaker 6: black men, Hispanic men, YadA, YadA, YadA. But it's the

483
00:24:26,080 --> 00:24:28,840
Speaker 6: question of men is how well is Donald Trump performing

484
00:24:28,840 --> 00:24:31,800
Speaker 6: with men? Is this the men the man election, because

485
00:24:31,840 --> 00:24:36,560
Speaker 6: with women it seems fairly unchanged completely. When it comes

486
00:24:36,560 --> 00:24:38,680
Speaker 6: to the voting data, look, we're starting to see early

487
00:24:38,760 --> 00:24:41,120
Speaker 6: votes come in. A lot of states do not have

488
00:24:42,040 --> 00:24:45,440
Speaker 6: voter registration by political party, like Virginia. Virginia has already

489
00:24:45,440 --> 00:24:47,320
Speaker 6: had one hundred and fifty thousand people vote in it,

490
00:24:47,520 --> 00:24:49,880
Speaker 6: but we don't know if there Republicans or Democrats because

491
00:24:49,880 --> 00:24:52,840
Speaker 6: they don't register voters by party. We just know if

492
00:24:52,840 --> 00:24:55,520
Speaker 6: their conservative districts or their liberal districts, and a lot

493
00:24:55,520 --> 00:24:58,600
Speaker 6: of conservative districts voting. Early voting turnout is over one

494
00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:01,040
Speaker 6: hundred percent of where it was twenty twentieth this time,

495
00:25:01,400 --> 00:25:04,399
Speaker 6: and in some liberal districts they have hit that point

496
00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:07,080
Speaker 6: and they've even surpassed it, like in fair Fact City.

497
00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:09,680
Speaker 6: But what we're looking at right now is a lot

498
00:25:09,680 --> 00:25:11,679
Speaker 6: of mail in data, and the mail in data in

499
00:25:11,720 --> 00:25:15,080
Speaker 6: the ballad requests in Pennsylvania, Democrats are down fairly large.

500
00:25:15,520 --> 00:25:19,280
Speaker 6: The numbers are about four percentage points tighter than they

501
00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:22,359
Speaker 6: were back in twenty twenty. In North Carolina they were

502
00:25:22,400 --> 00:25:24,439
Speaker 6: down big, big, big time. As far as people with

503
00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:28,160
Speaker 6: early mail ballad requests, does that mean that they won't

504
00:25:28,240 --> 00:25:30,840
Speaker 6: vote at all because they didn't get the early ballot requests,

505
00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:35,280
Speaker 6: I don't know. But the early ballot requests for Democrats

506
00:25:35,280 --> 00:25:37,520
Speaker 6: where they're going to mail in tons of votes and

507
00:25:37,560 --> 00:25:40,720
Speaker 6: basically have these votes ready to count it on election day,

508
00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:42,720
Speaker 6: that doesn't look like it's happening so far.

509
00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:45,879
Speaker 2: We're talking to Ryan Gardeski. Okay, two parter here for you.

510
00:25:46,000 --> 00:25:49,919
Speaker 1: Ryan Buck and I both believe that Joe Biden is

511
00:25:49,960 --> 00:25:54,040
Speaker 1: going to outperform Kamala. That is, Biden's twenty twenty numbers

512
00:25:54,160 --> 00:25:58,560
Speaker 1: are going to outperform kamala Is twenty twenty four numbers.

513
00:25:58,640 --> 00:26:01,200
Speaker 1: I'm curious if you would agree with that. That's nationwide,

514
00:26:01,280 --> 00:26:04,639
Speaker 1: not on an individual state basis. Second part of this question,

515
00:26:05,160 --> 00:26:08,000
Speaker 1: if you had to place a wager right now, would

516
00:26:08,040 --> 00:26:10,679
Speaker 1: you place a wager on Trump to win in twenty

517
00:26:10,720 --> 00:26:13,399
Speaker 1: twenty four based on the data analytics as you see it,

518
00:26:13,560 --> 00:26:15,920
Speaker 1: or would you place a wager on Kamala to win?

519
00:26:16,960 --> 00:26:20,600
Speaker 1: It's two I think kind of essence of the election questions.

520
00:26:20,600 --> 00:26:23,240
Speaker 1: But first, how will Kamala do compared to Biden?

521
00:26:24,880 --> 00:26:28,200
Speaker 6: Well, she's almost certain to get lower because Trump's numbers

522
00:26:28,200 --> 00:26:30,600
Speaker 6: have basically been stagnant. I think he got forty six

523
00:26:30,640 --> 00:26:33,240
Speaker 6: point two percent the first time, forty six point eight

524
00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:36,879
Speaker 6: percent the second time. Trump's numbers are fairly fixed. I

525
00:26:36,920 --> 00:26:39,640
Speaker 6: have a very difficult time seeing how if you voted

526
00:26:39,640 --> 00:26:41,280
Speaker 6: for him in sixteen and how you voted for him

527
00:26:41,320 --> 00:26:42,800
Speaker 6: in twenty that all of a sudden, you're not going

528
00:26:42,880 --> 00:26:45,159
Speaker 6: to vote for him in twenty four. That's why they

529
00:26:45,160 --> 00:26:48,719
Speaker 6: show these huge swings away from college educated whites. I

530
00:26:48,760 --> 00:26:50,600
Speaker 6: think to myself, and now I don't have any data

531
00:26:50,640 --> 00:26:52,760
Speaker 6: to prove this, but I think he when forty four

532
00:26:52,800 --> 00:26:55,840
Speaker 6: percent of that group in two straight elections. I don't

533
00:26:55,960 --> 00:26:57,359
Speaker 6: really see how many of them are going to sit

534
00:26:57,400 --> 00:26:58,880
Speaker 6: there and I'm like, oh, you know this third time

535
00:26:59,119 --> 00:27:02,120
Speaker 6: that gone, you know, Bridge too far. So she's most

536
00:27:02,119 --> 00:27:04,960
Speaker 6: certainly going to be doing worse. The question is how

537
00:27:05,040 --> 00:27:07,560
Speaker 6: much of the independent vote, the third party vote isn't

538
00:27:07,600 --> 00:27:10,040
Speaker 6: going to be taken up of her. Of her numbers,

539
00:27:10,280 --> 00:27:13,440
Speaker 6: the third party vote was detrimental to Hillary in twenty sixteen,

540
00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:15,240
Speaker 6: there was a much smaller part of it, and a

541
00:27:15,240 --> 00:27:18,479
Speaker 6: lot of those anti Hillary voters just went to Joe Biden.

542
00:27:19,200 --> 00:27:21,480
Speaker 6: I would say She's probably earned forty nine percent in

543
00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:24,240
Speaker 6: the polls and Trump's are forty seven or forty eight percent,

544
00:27:25,200 --> 00:27:27,080
Speaker 6: but that's really where it is. So yeah, she'll be

545
00:27:27,200 --> 00:27:29,400
Speaker 6: much lower. She'll be lower by a good point point

546
00:27:29,440 --> 00:27:32,159
Speaker 6: and a half percent. What Buck was saying in the

547
00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:35,760
Speaker 6: previous segment of Hispanic support increasing or Black support increasing,

548
00:27:36,080 --> 00:27:39,200
Speaker 6: If the numbers are real and Hispanic supporters are increasing,

549
00:27:39,240 --> 00:27:41,960
Speaker 6: you may see a situation where New York or Los

550
00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:45,440
Speaker 6: Angeles are significantly tighter, but that does not bear out

551
00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:49,439
Speaker 6: into an electoral victory. The only state that really matters

552
00:27:49,560 --> 00:27:52,560
Speaker 6: right now is Pennsylvania, because if Trump wins North Carolina

553
00:27:52,600 --> 00:27:56,600
Speaker 6: and Georgia as he's favored to, Pennsylvania flips the entire map,

554
00:27:56,920 --> 00:28:00,480
Speaker 6: So judging based on Pennsylvania, I think based on Mullerberg

555
00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:03,359
Speaker 6: poll that just was released and the Washington Post poll,

556
00:28:03,400 --> 00:28:04,760
Speaker 6: and I think of the era in the New York

557
00:28:04,760 --> 00:28:07,960
Speaker 6: Times poll, I think I would say Trump, in my opinion,

558
00:28:08,000 --> 00:28:09,800
Speaker 6: is probably favored to win Pennsylvania.

559
00:28:09,880 --> 00:28:10,440
Speaker 2: Not by much.

560
00:28:10,480 --> 00:28:12,920
Speaker 6: It's not going to be a landslide, but that number

561
00:28:12,960 --> 00:28:16,159
Speaker 6: in Pennsylvania would give him electoral college two seventy he needs.

562
00:28:16,400 --> 00:28:19,240
Speaker 3: And who would the votes be assuming Trump is ahead

563
00:28:19,280 --> 00:28:22,040
Speaker 3: and does end up winning in Pennsylvania, Ryan, is it

564
00:28:22,080 --> 00:28:26,720
Speaker 3: again that basically white guys, white guys who are non

565
00:28:26,720 --> 00:28:29,120
Speaker 3: college educated, who are the difference makers.

566
00:28:30,200 --> 00:28:33,240
Speaker 6: You're going to see an uptick in places like Yes One.

567
00:28:33,359 --> 00:28:36,240
Speaker 6: The white vote in Pennsylvania matters immensely, especially the senior vote.

568
00:28:36,240 --> 00:28:39,480
Speaker 6: But you see the numbers and registrations moving significantly. I

569
00:28:39,480 --> 00:28:42,840
Speaker 6: think in one county, say there's four thousand more registered

570
00:28:42,880 --> 00:28:46,280
Speaker 6: people that they've not tabulated yet. You're going to see

571
00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:49,840
Speaker 6: Trump uppick in Hispanic cities and secondary cities like Redding,

572
00:28:50,000 --> 00:28:53,920
Speaker 6: like Lancaster, like Bethlehem, these are huge Hispanic populations. They

573
00:28:54,080 --> 00:28:57,280
Speaker 6: experienced fifteen to twenty point swings from sixteen to twenty

574
00:28:57,320 --> 00:29:00,000
Speaker 6: you'll see that again, probably maybe at a smaller level,

575
00:29:00,160 --> 00:29:03,080
Speaker 6: but you'll still see an upswing in those areas. You

576
00:29:03,120 --> 00:29:05,560
Speaker 6: won't see the numbers coming out of Pittsburgh and Philly

577
00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:07,760
Speaker 6: that I think people are expecting to sit there and see.

578
00:29:08,000 --> 00:29:10,200
Speaker 6: And then Trump is going to have to do his

579
00:29:10,320 --> 00:29:14,560
Speaker 6: sixteen numbers in rural counties and manage to have enough

580
00:29:14,960 --> 00:29:18,640
Speaker 6: medium to big size county victories Erie County, Lancaster County,

581
00:29:18,720 --> 00:29:22,640
Speaker 6: York County to upset and upstage the numbers coming out

582
00:29:22,680 --> 00:29:27,960
Speaker 6: of the coller counties Delaware County, for example, or Montgomery County.

583
00:29:28,000 --> 00:29:30,360
Speaker 6: Montgomery County is the big one. It's it's an absolute

584
00:29:30,440 --> 00:29:34,480
Speaker 6: Republican killer is Montgomery County. So if if Kamala breaks

585
00:29:34,480 --> 00:29:36,720
Speaker 6: out of Montgomery County with you know, a forty forty

586
00:29:36,760 --> 00:29:40,560
Speaker 6: five point victory, that will be a very very hard

587
00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:42,200
Speaker 6: number to overcome.

588
00:29:42,360 --> 00:29:46,360
Speaker 3: But the Virginia stuff, by the way, Ryan started started

589
00:29:46,360 --> 00:29:50,000
Speaker 3: to interpet but this is really I'm very curious. Virginia

590
00:29:50,160 --> 00:29:53,280
Speaker 3: seems much closer than a lot of people would have

591
00:29:53,280 --> 00:29:56,440
Speaker 3: anticipated at this point. I believe goveror Younkin has a

592
00:29:56,480 --> 00:29:59,480
Speaker 3: sixty percent approval rating in the state, which the Republican

593
00:29:59,520 --> 00:30:03,760
Speaker 3: and state like Virginia is really solid. Is Virginia a

594
00:30:03,880 --> 00:30:06,800
Speaker 3: long shot for Trump or is it not a shot

595
00:30:06,840 --> 00:30:07,360
Speaker 3: for Trump?

596
00:30:08,480 --> 00:30:11,400
Speaker 6: It's still a long shot because of how the liberal

597
00:30:11,440 --> 00:30:14,520
Speaker 6: counties outside of Washington DC, those super blue counties Fairfax,

598
00:30:14,560 --> 00:30:17,800
Speaker 6: for example, had four times the amount of early voters

599
00:30:17,840 --> 00:30:19,800
Speaker 6: in twenty twenty four for the first day of early

600
00:30:19,880 --> 00:30:24,440
Speaker 6: voting then they did in twenty twenty. However, the red counties,

601
00:30:24,520 --> 00:30:27,720
Speaker 6: the red counties in smaller areas, they're experiencing overall one

602
00:30:27,840 --> 00:30:30,560
Speaker 6: hundred percent increase in early voter turnouts. So it's not

603
00:30:30,640 --> 00:30:32,840
Speaker 6: like just the left is mobilized and the right is

604
00:30:32,880 --> 00:30:35,480
Speaker 6: and they both are equally mobilized. We have to just

605
00:30:35,520 --> 00:30:38,360
Speaker 6: see where those key demographics are breaking. How much are

606
00:30:38,400 --> 00:30:41,440
Speaker 6: hispanics breaking, are Black men breaking, and how much are

607
00:30:41,520 --> 00:30:44,720
Speaker 6: men period breaking? Because the women numbers are very, very

608
00:30:44,760 --> 00:30:46,719
Speaker 6: fairly even as I said in the top of the segment,

609
00:30:46,920 --> 00:30:49,440
Speaker 6: the women numbers aren't where it's moving. It's about men.

610
00:30:49,680 --> 00:30:52,040
Speaker 6: Do men come out for Trump in the numbers that

611
00:30:52,160 --> 00:30:53,880
Speaker 6: some of the polls that say it's a tied election

612
00:30:54,000 --> 00:30:56,360
Speaker 6: do or do they kind of lack Are their lackluster?

613
00:30:56,480 --> 00:31:01,120
Speaker 6: Are they Joe Biden levels where they underperform what expectations

614
00:31:01,120 --> 00:31:02,440
Speaker 6: our hopes would be from the trumpet.

615
00:31:02,440 --> 00:31:04,520
Speaker 1: We're talking to Ryan Gardeski. By the way, my theory

616
00:31:04,560 --> 00:31:06,320
Speaker 1: on that is just there's a lot of people fed

617
00:31:06,440 --> 00:31:08,840
Speaker 1: up with election advertising, and as soon as they can

618
00:31:08,880 --> 00:31:10,880
Speaker 1: get their vote in, whether it's red or blue, they

619
00:31:10,920 --> 00:31:12,920
Speaker 1: just want to get the ballots done, and then they're like,

620
00:31:13,080 --> 00:31:15,320
Speaker 1: I'm out, I'm not paying attention to this anymore.

621
00:31:15,400 --> 00:31:18,280
Speaker 2: That's one theory that I have. Okay, Ryan, last question

622
00:31:18,320 --> 00:31:18,720
Speaker 2: for you.

623
00:31:19,160 --> 00:31:23,560
Speaker 1: Will we get any data prior to election day that

624
00:31:23,720 --> 00:31:26,800
Speaker 1: you think could be important in giving us an indication?

625
00:31:26,880 --> 00:31:29,880
Speaker 1: You mentioned early voting in Virginia. Is there any state

626
00:31:29,920 --> 00:31:33,360
Speaker 1: where we're going to get data that's reliable in any

627
00:31:33,440 --> 00:31:35,320
Speaker 1: way to kind of give us a sense for what

628
00:31:35,480 --> 00:31:37,840
Speaker 1: might be coming prior to election day? Is there anything

629
00:31:37,840 --> 00:31:39,360
Speaker 1: you're waiting for or watching for.

630
00:31:40,680 --> 00:31:44,360
Speaker 6: So the Republican early vote right now in Pennsylvania's twenty

631
00:31:44,400 --> 00:31:47,280
Speaker 6: six percent. It was lower, I think, with maybe twenty

632
00:31:47,280 --> 00:31:49,640
Speaker 6: seven percent, but the Democratic vote went from seventy to

633
00:31:49,680 --> 00:31:52,920
Speaker 6: sixty three. So I think those are the numbers. They're

634
00:31:53,000 --> 00:31:55,640
Speaker 6: roughly around the numbers. So the numbers in the early

635
00:31:55,720 --> 00:31:59,680
Speaker 6: mail in votes in Pennsylvania are five points more faarable

636
00:31:59,680 --> 00:32:03,080
Speaker 6: to a Republicans than they were four years ago. I

637
00:32:03,160 --> 00:32:05,880
Speaker 6: want to see where that trend is moving. If Republicans

638
00:32:05,880 --> 00:32:09,240
Speaker 6: can easily cross thirty or maybe thirty one percent and

639
00:32:09,280 --> 00:32:13,360
Speaker 6: Democrats in full hunder sixty percent, that's an extremely, extremely

640
00:32:13,400 --> 00:32:16,440
Speaker 6: good sign for Trump. He's winning in the early mail

641
00:32:16,520 --> 00:32:19,160
Speaker 6: in ballad requests and a number of small counties. I

642
00:32:19,200 --> 00:32:22,520
Speaker 6: also want to see partially where the Amish counties are heavily.

643
00:32:22,520 --> 00:32:25,960
Speaker 6: Amish areas are pulling up because they apparently having this

644
00:32:26,040 --> 00:32:27,880
Speaker 6: big get out the vote effort on the part of

645
00:32:27,920 --> 00:32:32,080
Speaker 6: Amish voters. Pennsylvania is where it's all at. So that's

646
00:32:32,120 --> 00:32:34,640
Speaker 6: why I want to see Pennsylvania's early ballid request. There's

647
00:32:34,680 --> 00:32:36,880
Speaker 6: already a million. I want to see how far it

648
00:32:36,920 --> 00:32:39,880
Speaker 6: goes and how high percentage wise Republicans go up and

649
00:32:39,960 --> 00:32:40,960
Speaker 6: Democrats go down.

650
00:32:41,600 --> 00:32:42,800
Speaker 2: Ryan appreciate the time.

651
00:32:42,800 --> 00:32:44,600
Speaker 1: I man encourage all of you to go follow Ryan

652
00:32:44,640 --> 00:32:46,560
Speaker 1: on Twitter, by the way, and even mentioned it, great

653
00:32:46,640 --> 00:32:48,760
Speaker 1: job of late on CNN. It's been fun to see

654
00:32:48,760 --> 00:32:51,120
Speaker 1: you taking a sword with some of these awful arguments.

655
00:32:51,640 --> 00:32:52,640
Speaker 1: So you've been killing it there.

656
00:32:52,960 --> 00:32:54,840
Speaker 2: Thank you, Yah appreciation.

657
00:32:54,960 --> 00:32:57,800
Speaker 1: So check out check out Ryan's work at at a

658
00:32:57,800 --> 00:32:59,840
Speaker 1: substaf and go follow inim on social media. We'll share

659
00:32:59,840 --> 00:33:03,720
Speaker 1: that certainly on clayanbuck dot com. Thanks Ryan, thank you.

660
00:33:05,000 --> 00:33:07,960
Speaker 1: Look tomorrow, I'm gonna give you a winner.

661
00:33:08,360 --> 00:33:09,760
Speaker 2: Buck. I'm happy.

662
00:33:09,800 --> 00:33:14,400
Speaker 1: I can feel it in the cosmos with prize Picks Thursday.

663
00:33:14,680 --> 00:33:17,000
Speaker 3: Jump in really quickly because because you feel sorry for

664
00:33:17,080 --> 00:33:19,600
Speaker 3: me because of how expensive you've been lately, sir, I

665
00:33:19,600 --> 00:33:21,360
Speaker 3: need to make some money with your prize picks, So

666
00:33:21,440 --> 00:33:21,920
Speaker 3: go ahead.

667
00:33:22,120 --> 00:33:25,160
Speaker 1: After what Buck had to spend on my very understated

668
00:33:25,240 --> 00:33:28,400
Speaker 1: not to draw attention to it, bet steak down in

669
00:33:28,480 --> 00:33:31,719
Speaker 1: Miami on Sunday night, I feel compelled to give you

670
00:33:31,800 --> 00:33:33,640
Speaker 1: all a winner at prize Picks.

671
00:33:34,080 --> 00:33:35,600
Speaker 2: I'm gonna be down. I can't wait.

672
00:33:35,680 --> 00:33:40,240
Speaker 1: Actually, it's amazing game Alabama hosting Georgia. I may have

673
00:33:40,320 --> 00:33:43,520
Speaker 1: some picks on Friday for you in that college football game.

674
00:33:43,800 --> 00:33:45,800
Speaker 1: But go ahead and get signed up right now so

675
00:33:45,920 --> 00:33:48,480
Speaker 1: you are ready to play either with us or against us.

676
00:33:49,000 --> 00:33:50,720
Speaker 1: When it comes to prize picks, you go to prizepicks

677
00:33:50,720 --> 00:33:52,840
Speaker 1: dot com. You put in my name, Clay. You get

678
00:33:52,880 --> 00:33:56,600
Speaker 1: fifty bucks when you play five dollars more or less

679
00:33:56,760 --> 00:33:58,480
Speaker 1: a variety of different players.

680
00:33:58,720 --> 00:34:00,000
Speaker 2: We're going to give you a winner.

681
00:34:00,320 --> 00:34:02,200
Speaker 1: I'm telling you tomorrow and I'm also going to give

682
00:34:02,200 --> 00:34:04,560
Speaker 1: you one Friday, and I want you to be signed

683
00:34:04,640 --> 00:34:06,200
Speaker 1: up and be able to play along. Whether you live

684
00:34:06,240 --> 00:34:10,600
Speaker 1: in California, Texas, Georgia, maybe you're filling left out Florida,

685
00:34:10,800 --> 00:34:12,520
Speaker 1: thirty different states you.

686
00:34:12,520 --> 00:34:13,319
Speaker 2: Can play in.

687
00:34:13,880 --> 00:34:18,600
Speaker 1: Just use my name Clay and you get fifty bucks prize.

688
00:34:18,640 --> 00:34:23,200
Speaker 1: Pick dot com my name Clay. Do it today as.

689
00:34:23,239 --> 00:34:27,080
Speaker 8: It's silly, it's goofy, it's good times. Fight it in

690
00:34:27,120 --> 00:34:30,240
Speaker 8: the Clay and Buck podcast feed on the iHeartRadio app

691
00:34:30,400 --> 00:34:32,359
Speaker 8: or wherever you get your podcasts.

692
00:34:32,480 --> 00:34:34,759
Speaker 3: All right, welcome back into Clay and Buck. We're going

693
00:34:34,800 --> 00:34:36,680
Speaker 3: to dive in here in just a few minutes to

694
00:34:37,600 --> 00:34:42,680
Speaker 3: the credible threats according to the intelligence community, of an

695
00:34:42,920 --> 00:34:47,560
Speaker 3: Iranian plot to assassinate Trump to sow chaos in the

696
00:34:47,640 --> 00:34:52,479
Speaker 3: United States. Plus some more information on the investigation into

697
00:34:52,480 --> 00:34:59,160
Speaker 3: the Butler Pennsylvania assassination attack attack attempt, sorry, plus more

698
00:34:59,239 --> 00:35:04,239
Speaker 3: information about the second assassination attempt on Donald Trump. The

699
00:35:04,640 --> 00:35:10,320
Speaker 3: son of the assassin was arrested for a grotesque crime.

700
00:35:10,480 --> 00:35:13,640
Speaker 3: So we will we'll get into all of that here

701
00:35:13,680 --> 00:35:16,200
Speaker 3: in a moment. Also, just wanted to take a second

702
00:35:16,200 --> 00:35:18,520
Speaker 3: to say, you know, Clay's got his mug. Mine's actually

703
00:35:18,520 --> 00:35:21,320
Speaker 3: being washed right now. But Krocket Coffee, everybody, the new

704
00:35:21,920 --> 00:35:25,320
Speaker 3: Suncreek Light Roast is in the store.

705
00:35:25,560 --> 00:35:27,279
Speaker 2: We've been trying to get it set up. We only

706
00:35:27,280 --> 00:35:28,000
Speaker 2: bring you the best.

707
00:35:28,760 --> 00:35:33,520
Speaker 3: Please go to Krocketcoffee dot com subscribe try the light Roast.

708
00:35:33,560 --> 00:35:36,799
Speaker 3: Remember light Roast coffee actually has more caffeine for those

709
00:35:36,840 --> 00:35:38,600
Speaker 3: of you like me who like a little extra kick.

710
00:35:39,320 --> 00:35:42,600
Speaker 3: So Krocketcoffee dot Com. A new blend organic is coming

711
00:35:42,640 --> 00:35:44,840
Speaker 3: soon matter of weeks, and then all the gear. But

712
00:35:44,880 --> 00:35:47,239
Speaker 3: we're building out this company. Actually you are building out

713
00:35:47,239 --> 00:35:50,640
Speaker 3: this company. So thank you all for subscribing and helping

714
00:35:50,760 --> 00:35:53,080
Speaker 3: us with this and so many more initiatives coming. And

715
00:35:53,160 --> 00:35:55,120
Speaker 3: remember ten percent of the profits goes to all the

716
00:35:55,120 --> 00:35:57,800
Speaker 3: Towers Foundation. Clay, can I just throw out one more requests?

717
00:35:57,840 --> 00:36:02,399
Speaker 3: I'm making requests, yes, firea So I know a while

718
00:36:02,400 --> 00:36:04,600
Speaker 3: ago I had put out a call on behalf of

719
00:36:04,680 --> 00:36:11,239
Speaker 3: the Sextons in New York for French or English Bulldog readers.

720
00:36:11,880 --> 00:36:14,799
Speaker 3: I have been informed by credible sources that they are

721
00:36:14,840 --> 00:36:18,120
Speaker 3: now ready to pull the trigger, so to speak, on

722
00:36:18,400 --> 00:36:21,160
Speaker 3: a frendsheet or if you have a French who or

723
00:36:21,160 --> 00:36:22,600
Speaker 3: an English rescue that.

724
00:36:22,520 --> 00:36:23,040
Speaker 2: You know of.

725
00:36:23,920 --> 00:36:27,680
Speaker 3: Email me let me know, because my sister is ready

726
00:36:27,719 --> 00:36:29,359
Speaker 3: for a bulldog again and I want to help her

727
00:36:29,360 --> 00:36:31,000
Speaker 3: get when there were so many clay. We have so

728
00:36:31,080 --> 00:36:33,319
Speaker 3: many dog breaders in this aud like people that breed dogs.

729
00:36:33,400 --> 00:36:36,919
Speaker 3: This audience or restaurants. Lots of dog people and lots

730
00:36:36,920 --> 00:36:39,960
Speaker 3: of gun people. Lots of overlap there, for sure. Yes,

731
00:36:41,000 --> 00:36:42,879
Speaker 3: I think that might actually be the perth. I think

732
00:36:42,880 --> 00:36:46,600
Speaker 3: we're in the ninety ninth percentile for love, dogs, love

733
00:36:46,680 --> 00:36:48,320
Speaker 3: firearms with this audience.

734
00:36:47,960 --> 00:36:50,440
Speaker 1: So craziness out of a rod. We'll tell you the

735
00:36:50,520 --> 00:36:51,439
Speaker 1: latest and we come back