1 00:00:03,000 --> 00:00:07,560 Speaker 1: Broadcasting live to New York, Bloomberg to Washington, d C, 2 00:00:07,800 --> 00:00:13,039 Speaker 1: Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg twelve unders to San Francisco, Bloomberg 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:18,319 Speaker 1: to the Country, Channel one, and around the globe the 4 00:00:18,360 --> 00:00:22,920 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio bus Happen Bloomberg dot Com. This is Bloomberg Surveillance. 5 00:00:23,720 --> 00:00:26,799 Speaker 1: Good Mario seven thirty on Wall Street. I Michael McKee 6 00:00:26,800 --> 00:00:30,080 Speaker 1: along with Tom Keene. It's a Monday, but so far, 7 00:00:30,720 --> 00:00:33,960 Speaker 1: no mergers to talk about, no headlines breaking this morning. 8 00:00:34,040 --> 00:00:37,960 Speaker 1: Kind of a quiet day. Uh we do know. That's 9 00:00:38,640 --> 00:00:41,280 Speaker 1: Japan's line headed for what could be the biggest initial 10 00:00:41,280 --> 00:00:43,400 Speaker 1: public offering for a tech company this year. Is the 11 00:00:43,440 --> 00:00:46,160 Speaker 1: report out that the company behind one of Asia's most 12 00:00:46,200 --> 00:00:49,280 Speaker 1: popular messaging apps wants to go public in Tokyo and 13 00:00:49,320 --> 00:00:53,040 Speaker 1: New York, goal of raising one to two billion dollars. 14 00:00:53,080 --> 00:00:56,120 Speaker 1: They'll they'll come out in mid to late July and 15 00:00:56,200 --> 00:00:57,560 Speaker 1: they want to raise about half of that in the 16 00:00:57,640 --> 00:01:01,640 Speaker 1: United States. GELL they're the laboratory of American management, so 17 00:01:01,680 --> 00:01:04,040 Speaker 1: you gotta pay attention when they say they're rethinking the 18 00:01:04,160 --> 00:01:08,560 Speaker 1: bedrock tradition of corporate life. The annual rays Gee executives 19 00:01:08,560 --> 00:01:12,040 Speaker 1: reviewing whether annual updates to compensation are the best response 20 00:01:12,120 --> 00:01:15,880 Speaker 1: to the achievements and needs of employees. And this you 21 00:01:15,920 --> 00:01:17,880 Speaker 1: want to trade on something, Here's a here's a company 22 00:01:17,920 --> 00:01:21,520 Speaker 1: to watch new Balance. They may win an almost decade 23 00:01:21,560 --> 00:01:24,440 Speaker 1: long marathon and buy American. Provision in the Defense Policy 24 00:01:24,440 --> 00:01:26,440 Speaker 1: Bill the Senate will debate this week could force the 25 00:01:26,480 --> 00:01:30,240 Speaker 1: Pentagon to purchase the company sneakers for new military recruits. 26 00:01:30,280 --> 00:01:34,720 Speaker 1: It's one law requires made in the USA attire for soldiers. 27 00:01:34,720 --> 00:01:36,760 Speaker 1: No more nikes and no more vouchers, which is what 28 00:01:36,800 --> 00:01:38,440 Speaker 1: they give out now. They just have to buy those 29 00:01:39,000 --> 00:01:42,720 Speaker 1: American sneakers. Now, it's time for a look at world 30 00:01:42,720 --> 00:01:45,960 Speaker 1: of national headlines. Here's John, alright, Michael and Tom. Tropical 31 00:01:45,959 --> 00:01:48,840 Speaker 1: Storm Common gaining speed and strength as it gets ready 32 00:01:48,840 --> 00:01:52,400 Speaker 1: to strike Florida later today. The maximum sustained wins are 33 00:01:52,400 --> 00:01:56,440 Speaker 1: near fifty with some slow strength I think possible over 34 00:01:56,480 --> 00:01:58,960 Speaker 1: the next couple of days. A forecasters say the center 35 00:01:59,040 --> 00:02:01,280 Speaker 1: of Collin expected to approached the coast of the Florida 36 00:02:01,320 --> 00:02:04,720 Speaker 1: Big Bend area this afternoon or this evening. Eastern Georgia 37 00:02:04,760 --> 00:02:06,880 Speaker 1: the coast of the Carolinas could get up to eight 38 00:02:06,960 --> 00:02:11,440 Speaker 1: inches of rain through tomorrow. Hillary Clinton goes into Tuesday's 39 00:02:11,480 --> 00:02:14,680 Speaker 1: California primary leading just twenty six more delegates to clinch 40 00:02:14,760 --> 00:02:18,040 Speaker 1: the Democratic presidential nomination. At a rally last night in 41 00:02:18,080 --> 00:02:21,079 Speaker 1: the state, she warned of a contentious campaign, saying she's 42 00:02:21,080 --> 00:02:24,239 Speaker 1: not gonna point out every single moment that I can 43 00:02:24,480 --> 00:02:27,280 Speaker 1: she She's gonna use every single moment she has to 44 00:02:27,400 --> 00:02:29,919 Speaker 1: say why she believes the Republican nomine they should never 45 00:02:30,000 --> 00:02:35,360 Speaker 1: get anywhere near the White House. Ukraine's Intelligence agency SPU 46 00:02:35,480 --> 00:02:38,520 Speaker 1: says it has thwarted a plot to attack soccer's European 47 00:02:38,600 --> 00:02:42,360 Speaker 1: Championships in France. SPU says it had followed a Frenchman 48 00:02:42,480 --> 00:02:45,720 Speaker 1: since December and allowed him to purchase machine guns, rocket 49 00:02:45,760 --> 00:02:49,280 Speaker 1: propelled grenades and other weapons before he was arrested on 50 00:02:49,320 --> 00:02:52,760 Speaker 1: the Ukraine Polish border. Global News twenty four hours a day, 51 00:02:52,800 --> 00:02:54,640 Speaker 1: powered by a twenty four hund of journalist said more 52 00:02:54,639 --> 00:02:57,120 Speaker 1: than one hundred fifty news heureaus around the world. I'm 53 00:02:57,200 --> 00:03:01,120 Speaker 1: John Tucker, Michael Tong, thank one time now for the 54 00:03:01,200 --> 00:03:07,400 Speaker 1: Landrover parcipity. Bloomberg NBC Sports update with warning Mike. Strength 55 00:03:07,440 --> 00:03:09,880 Speaker 1: for Joe Girardi and the Yankees has been the back 56 00:03:10,000 --> 00:03:12,440 Speaker 1: end of their bullpen, but it did falter. On Sundays, 57 00:03:12,440 --> 00:03:15,240 Speaker 1: the Yankees blew a one nothing lead despite out hitting 58 00:03:15,240 --> 00:03:17,560 Speaker 1: the Orioles three to one at Camping Yards. They allow 59 00:03:17,680 --> 00:03:19,880 Speaker 1: a three run eighth inning. That was your difference in 60 00:03:19,880 --> 00:03:23,120 Speaker 1: the three one setback. Dylan Matansas took the loss. Matt 61 00:03:23,120 --> 00:03:26,080 Speaker 1: Weeders got the game winning hit off Rolla's Chapman. Yankees 62 00:03:26,160 --> 00:03:28,720 Speaker 1: dropped the series. Welcome to the Angels. Tonight, Matt Shoemaker 63 00:03:28,960 --> 00:03:31,760 Speaker 1: faces at Massa Heiro Tanaka. Matts, who have been shut 64 00:03:31,800 --> 00:03:34,720 Speaker 1: down offensively several times this year, fell victim the Jose 65 00:03:34,880 --> 00:03:37,800 Speaker 1: Fernandez and the Marlins one nothing in Miami's Matt Harvey 66 00:03:37,840 --> 00:03:39,840 Speaker 1: pitched well in a tough luck loss, gave up a 67 00:03:39,920 --> 00:03:42,600 Speaker 1: run in seven innings. The problem Fernandez a little bit better, though, 68 00:03:42,640 --> 00:03:46,640 Speaker 1: seven scoreless fan fourteen. Mets now had to Pittsburgh and 69 00:03:46,680 --> 00:03:49,720 Speaker 1: they faced Jonathan Nice Tonight. Stephen Mansko's for New York 70 00:03:50,120 --> 00:03:52,680 Speaker 1: NBA Finals Warriors and make it look easy, blasting the 71 00:03:52,760 --> 00:03:55,720 Speaker 1: Cavaliers one ten to seventy seven. They're up to oh 72 00:03:55,720 --> 00:03:59,360 Speaker 1: heading back to Cleveland and Roland Garrosnovad Djokovic wins the 73 00:03:59,360 --> 00:04:02,320 Speaker 1: French Open, his first career Grand Slam that's your ANBC 74 00:04:02,440 --> 00:04:06,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Sports Update, Mike, Thank you very much. Rob Bushka. Well, 75 00:04:06,560 --> 00:04:09,520 Speaker 1: we're watching a market that is not as unhappy about 76 00:04:09,520 --> 00:04:11,920 Speaker 1: the jobs report as you might have thought. The two 77 00:04:11,960 --> 00:04:15,040 Speaker 1: year no yield, those still down at eight basis points. 78 00:04:18,560 --> 00:04:21,839 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg's avalance. Michael McKee with Tom Kane. Futures 79 00:04:21,839 --> 00:04:24,839 Speaker 1: are higher and adding to their games. Just a few 80 00:04:24,839 --> 00:04:28,280 Speaker 1: futures now by three points, dal futures by thirty four 81 00:04:28,800 --> 00:04:31,520 Speaker 1: in Europe. It's about a tenth of a percent gain 82 00:04:31,640 --> 00:04:35,800 Speaker 1: for the stock six hundred. It is time now for 83 00:04:35,839 --> 00:04:38,120 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg n j I T STEM Report, brought to 84 00:04:38,120 --> 00:04:40,680 Speaker 1: you by New Jersey Institute of Technology, investing more than 85 00:04:40,720 --> 00:04:42,680 Speaker 1: a hundred and ten million dollars a year and applied 86 00:04:42,720 --> 00:04:46,000 Speaker 1: research to solve problems that improve life. Learn more at 87 00:04:46,040 --> 00:04:48,680 Speaker 1: Stories of Innovation dot n j I T dot E 88 00:04:48,839 --> 00:04:51,760 Speaker 1: d U. Here's Bob Moon, Michael, good morning. Here's what's 89 00:04:51,800 --> 00:04:55,279 Speaker 1: making news and science, technology, engineering and math. They don't 90 00:04:55,320 --> 00:04:58,280 Speaker 1: need health insurance, they don't take vacations, and they don't 91 00:04:58,320 --> 00:05:00,960 Speaker 1: get sick. That's how one long here on Capitol Hill 92 00:05:01,040 --> 00:05:04,159 Speaker 1: explains the next big thing to cost American workers their jobs. 93 00:05:04,520 --> 00:05:08,240 Speaker 1: The overhaul of the American workplace using more and more robots. 94 00:05:08,480 --> 00:05:11,279 Speaker 1: Republican Senator Dan Coates of Indiana expects a lot of 95 00:05:11,360 --> 00:05:13,920 Speaker 1: jobs to become obsolete, as he puts it, faster than 96 00:05:13,960 --> 00:05:17,080 Speaker 1: anybody realizes. Coats and other lawmakers say it's time to 97 00:05:17,080 --> 00:05:20,760 Speaker 1: start preparing for technological unemployment. They might want to get 98 00:05:20,800 --> 00:05:24,920 Speaker 1: started soon. Think self checkout aisles, driverless vehicles, medical robots, 99 00:05:24,920 --> 00:05:28,200 Speaker 1: and other automations. Not to worry, says Andrew McAfee, a 100 00:05:28,279 --> 00:05:31,360 Speaker 1: research scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He told 101 00:05:31,400 --> 00:05:35,160 Speaker 1: Bloomberg BNA technological progress has been putting people out of 102 00:05:35,200 --> 00:05:38,240 Speaker 1: work since at least John Henry, But it also opens 103 00:05:38,320 --> 00:05:42,200 Speaker 1: up new opportunities. And then there's this. Union officials say 104 00:05:42,240 --> 00:05:44,920 Speaker 1: new airport towers due to go into operation this fall 105 00:05:45,040 --> 00:05:48,200 Speaker 1: in San Francisco in Las Vegas will first need extensive 106 00:05:48,200 --> 00:05:51,240 Speaker 1: remodeling to make room for technology that dates back to 107 00:05:51,279 --> 00:05:54,240 Speaker 1: the early days of air traffic control. They say. The 108 00:05:54,279 --> 00:05:58,120 Speaker 1: prototype electronic system the Federal Aviation Administration plans to use 109 00:05:58,480 --> 00:06:01,440 Speaker 1: in the towers breaks down too often to be relied upon, 110 00:06:01,560 --> 00:06:05,320 Speaker 1: so controllers must be able to quickly revert to paper strips. 111 00:06:05,880 --> 00:06:07,880 Speaker 1: But the towers have no place to put the equipment 112 00:06:07,920 --> 00:06:11,400 Speaker 1: necessary to use the old system. And that's this morning's 113 00:06:11,480 --> 00:06:14,320 Speaker 1: Bloomberg and j I t Stem report, Mike and Tom. 114 00:06:14,360 --> 00:06:16,880 Speaker 1: I am not worried Bob, not at all. I don't 115 00:06:16,920 --> 00:06:20,440 Speaker 1: see any way a robot can replace Tom keat I mean, 116 00:06:20,480 --> 00:06:29,560 Speaker 1: he is irreplaceable. When I think Hal from New Jersey 117 00:06:29,600 --> 00:06:31,640 Speaker 1: just heard that. He's like, it's gotta be a robot 118 00:06:31,720 --> 00:06:38,600 Speaker 1: out there somewhere. Good morning, Tom, it is surprisingly good 119 00:06:38,640 --> 00:06:41,240 Speaker 1: morning in the markets. Um, we're seeing a little bit 120 00:06:41,279 --> 00:06:44,080 Speaker 1: of a rebound in the bond markets and uh a 121 00:06:44,120 --> 00:06:46,960 Speaker 1: little bit of a rebound in the foreign exchange markets, 122 00:06:46,960 --> 00:06:49,960 Speaker 1: and certainly stocks have not given up the ghost here 123 00:06:50,040 --> 00:06:56,320 Speaker 1: even though everybody has decided Fed's gone away. Well it is, 124 00:06:56,640 --> 00:06:59,960 Speaker 1: I mean, I mean there you know, the de Bay 125 00:07:00,080 --> 00:07:02,839 Speaker 1: over the weekend was stunning, and it leads us to 126 00:07:02,880 --> 00:07:06,720 Speaker 1: Marshall sun and Shine who joins us snow from Marshall? 127 00:07:06,760 --> 00:07:11,720 Speaker 1: Is it Marshall's Sunshine Partners? No, it's Sununshine Partners. I'm 128 00:07:11,760 --> 00:07:14,440 Speaker 1: not that being glorious that I would say my first thing, Okay, 129 00:07:14,840 --> 00:07:18,680 Speaker 1: Sunnshine Partners, are you busy? I mean, that's that's the 130 00:07:18,920 --> 00:07:23,440 Speaker 1: arch question always last year was amazing. Right, we're always busy, Tom, 131 00:07:23,520 --> 00:07:25,760 Speaker 1: But we're a boutique bank, so we're not really a 132 00:07:25,840 --> 00:07:28,600 Speaker 1: proxy for the big market. We're we're just twenty five people, 133 00:07:29,080 --> 00:07:31,200 Speaker 1: so we're If we weren't busy, we'd I think we'd 134 00:07:31,200 --> 00:07:33,080 Speaker 1: be out of business. But yes, we are quite busy. 135 00:07:33,200 --> 00:07:36,600 Speaker 1: Right now, you're busy. But Wall Street in general, this 136 00:07:36,800 --> 00:07:38,720 Speaker 1: distortion has got to be killing them. I looked at 137 00:07:38,760 --> 00:07:42,720 Speaker 1: European spreads, net inch margin spreads over the weekend. They're 138 00:07:42,760 --> 00:07:45,280 Speaker 1: they're they're evaporating. There's no other way to put it. 139 00:07:45,960 --> 00:07:49,560 Speaker 1: What what does the street do to extricate itself from 140 00:07:49,600 --> 00:07:53,080 Speaker 1: the economics they've been handed? Well, I don't think the 141 00:07:53,200 --> 00:07:56,640 Speaker 1: Street by itself is a force that can extricate these 142 00:07:56,880 --> 00:08:00,400 Speaker 1: These are very very deeply embedded problems that I think 143 00:08:00,440 --> 00:08:03,400 Speaker 1: are really getting played out in the political sphere right now. 144 00:08:04,120 --> 00:08:08,440 Speaker 1: All of this low rate phenomenon and low growth phenomenon, 145 00:08:08,520 --> 00:08:11,040 Speaker 1: and they are two sides of exactly the same coin, 146 00:08:11,640 --> 00:08:17,000 Speaker 1: really fundamentally reflect a series of political and economic problems 147 00:08:17,080 --> 00:08:20,400 Speaker 1: that are deeply embedded in Western democracy today, not just 148 00:08:20,520 --> 00:08:22,840 Speaker 1: in this country but also in Europe. What does that 149 00:08:22,960 --> 00:08:26,760 Speaker 1: mean for the future is is this a secular change. 150 00:08:27,520 --> 00:08:29,040 Speaker 1: I think we've had. I think we've been in a 151 00:08:29,120 --> 00:08:32,120 Speaker 1: long term secular change, yes, Mike. I think that prior 152 00:08:32,240 --> 00:08:36,840 Speaker 1: to the financial crisis, what we had was a kind 153 00:08:36,920 --> 00:08:41,720 Speaker 1: of blend of strange chrony capitalism and permissiveness in financial 154 00:08:41,800 --> 00:08:45,319 Speaker 1: regulation that permitted the UH factors that led to the 155 00:08:45,640 --> 00:08:48,520 Speaker 1: financial crisis to take place. And in the aftermath of 156 00:08:48,600 --> 00:08:51,079 Speaker 1: the financial crisis, what we really did in response to 157 00:08:51,200 --> 00:08:56,120 Speaker 1: that was to use central banks to drive tremendous levels 158 00:08:56,640 --> 00:08:59,719 Speaker 1: of capital through the arteries of finance, which are the 159 00:08:59,760 --> 00:09:02,560 Speaker 1: bank and other financial institutions, through first bailouts and then 160 00:09:02,640 --> 00:09:06,040 Speaker 1: low interest rates, and then the purchasing of fixed income 161 00:09:06,040 --> 00:09:08,520 Speaker 1: securities out of the marketplace. Is so called twist operation 162 00:09:08,600 --> 00:09:13,679 Speaker 1: that never really ended. Those responses are not normal, they 163 00:09:13,720 --> 00:09:17,120 Speaker 1: are not long term sustainable, and Western economies are a 164 00:09:17,160 --> 00:09:20,360 Speaker 1: little bit like drug addicts now addicted to this stuff. 165 00:09:20,400 --> 00:09:22,360 Speaker 1: And you can see that play out in Janet Yellen's 166 00:09:22,400 --> 00:09:25,000 Speaker 1: own common She's trying so damned hard. I feel so 167 00:09:25,160 --> 00:09:28,120 Speaker 1: badly for her. She wants to get the patient off 168 00:09:28,200 --> 00:09:31,000 Speaker 1: the drug, and she's having trouble doing it. It's a problem. 169 00:09:31,400 --> 00:09:33,959 Speaker 1: What happens is she just to keep going with the 170 00:09:34,160 --> 00:09:38,640 Speaker 1: medical metaphor, if she just rips the band aid off, well, 171 00:09:39,160 --> 00:09:41,079 Speaker 1: at this point she's gonna she's gonna have to do 172 00:09:41,200 --> 00:09:42,559 Speaker 1: some of that, and at some point you're gonna have 173 00:09:42,559 --> 00:09:45,199 Speaker 1: to bite the bullet. I think that the expectation of 174 00:09:46,000 --> 00:09:48,920 Speaker 1: rate increases is now baked into the stock market, which 175 00:09:48,960 --> 00:09:51,120 Speaker 1: has been flatlighting for a little while now, And I 176 00:09:51,200 --> 00:09:53,800 Speaker 1: think what she's really trying to accomplish, whether whether she 177 00:09:53,880 --> 00:09:56,360 Speaker 1: says it this way or not, is a safe landing 178 00:09:56,480 --> 00:09:59,040 Speaker 1: in the form of a series of little band aid 179 00:09:59,120 --> 00:10:02,360 Speaker 1: rips over the course of eighteen or twenty four or 180 00:10:02,440 --> 00:10:05,880 Speaker 1: so months, in which we would see rates gently increase 181 00:10:06,000 --> 00:10:09,120 Speaker 1: each time, tepidly each time, with a lot of kind 182 00:10:09,160 --> 00:10:10,480 Speaker 1: of I don't know whether it will be the next one, 183 00:10:10,480 --> 00:10:12,320 Speaker 1: it will be a few months later. We're worried about Brexit, 184 00:10:12,360 --> 00:10:14,559 Speaker 1: We're worried about we drop job reports, were worried about China, 185 00:10:14,559 --> 00:10:16,640 Speaker 1: We're worried, worried, worried. But each time you're gonna have 186 00:10:16,640 --> 00:10:19,280 Speaker 1: to rip a band aid off and see what happens. 187 00:10:19,400 --> 00:10:22,439 Speaker 1: The heart of the matter, to link your world to 188 00:10:22,679 --> 00:10:25,880 Speaker 1: the world of our listeners is the only way people 189 00:10:25,920 --> 00:10:31,800 Speaker 1: can acquire do growth, is to acquire nobody's generating anything 190 00:10:31,880 --> 00:10:33,920 Speaker 1: but good single digit growth. Let's come back and talk 191 00:10:33,960 --> 00:10:37,640 Speaker 1: to Marshall Sonenshine about this, this idea of linking in 192 00:10:38,200 --> 00:10:40,560 Speaker 1: his world of mergers and acquisitions with what we're gonna 193 00:10:40,600 --> 00:10:43,319 Speaker 1: see from Mr Lockhart in an hour and twenty minutes 194 00:10:43,360 --> 00:10:47,280 Speaker 1: and from Janet Yelling later. Uh this morning, Well, here's 195 00:10:47,320 --> 00:10:49,880 Speaker 1: what you need to know. A nice recovery to the 196 00:10:50,040 --> 00:10:55,000 Speaker 1: tape off of the Friday eight three Joy features up 197 00:10:55,080 --> 00:11:02,640 Speaker 1: three Bloomberg Surveillas. Bloomberg's Avalance brought to by S S 198 00:11:02,679 --> 00:11:06,560 Speaker 1: and C. More experienced, superior technology, independence, had expertise. That's 199 00:11:06,559 --> 00:11:09,120 Speaker 1: how S S and C drives the future of fund administration. 200 00:11:09,320 --> 00:11:12,160 Speaker 1: S S and C. They are the future fund administration. 201 00:11:17,480 --> 00:11:20,840 Speaker 1: Global business news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg 202 00:11:20,880 --> 00:11:23,960 Speaker 1: dot com, the Radio plus Mobile Lab and on your radio. 203 00:11:24,280 --> 00:11:28,280 Speaker 1: This is a Bloomberg Business Flash and I'm kerin Moscow. 204 00:11:28,360 --> 00:11:30,719 Speaker 1: This updates brought to you by Sector Spider e t 205 00:11:31,000 --> 00:11:33,040 Speaker 1: F S. Why buy a single stock when you can 206 00:11:33,120 --> 00:11:36,400 Speaker 1: invest in the entire sector? Visits Sector spd r s 207 00:11:36,640 --> 00:11:39,319 Speaker 1: dot com are called WENT six six Sector E t 208 00:11:39,600 --> 00:11:43,200 Speaker 1: F minors and energy companies rallying with commodities after US 209 00:11:43,280 --> 00:11:46,439 Speaker 1: jobs data crushed speculation. The Federal Reserve a raise interest 210 00:11:46,559 --> 00:11:49,679 Speaker 1: racist month. The pound is slumping following polls that showed 211 00:11:49,679 --> 00:11:53,720 Speaker 1: Britain's favor exiting the European Union. US DOT Index Future 212 00:11:53,760 --> 00:11:56,480 Speaker 1: is they're higher before Federal Reserve Chary Jenny Yellen speaks 213 00:11:56,520 --> 00:11:59,559 Speaker 1: in Philadelphia, the last skittled appearance by a central bank 214 00:11:59,600 --> 00:12:03,400 Speaker 1: official before the next policy meeting concludes on June fifteen. 215 00:12:04,040 --> 00:12:05,679 Speaker 1: And now let's get you up to dat and I'll 216 00:12:05,679 --> 00:12:08,000 Speaker 1: stalk you're faring SNP E Many Future is up four 217 00:12:08,080 --> 00:12:10,840 Speaker 1: points this morning, dowie Many futures up forty and Nasdaq 218 00:12:10,880 --> 00:12:13,559 Speaker 1: e many futures up nine. The docks in Germany is 219 00:12:13,600 --> 00:12:16,720 Speaker 1: little change now ten. Your treasury down five thirday seconds. 220 00:12:17,040 --> 00:12:20,040 Speaker 1: The yeld one point seven one percent, nine mix corn 221 00:12:20,080 --> 00:12:22,240 Speaker 1: oil at one point two per cent or fifty six 222 00:12:22,280 --> 00:12:25,040 Speaker 1: cents to forty nine eighteen, A barrel called MIxS gold 223 00:12:25,120 --> 00:12:27,120 Speaker 1: up two tens per cent or two dollars to twelve 224 00:12:27,160 --> 00:12:30,080 Speaker 1: forty four and ninety announced the euro at dollar thirteen 225 00:12:30,200 --> 00:12:33,520 Speaker 1: forty seven, AYGD one oh seven point oh seven and 226 00:12:33,600 --> 00:12:37,680 Speaker 1: as a Bloomberg Business flash, Tom and Mike Karen thank 227 00:12:37,720 --> 00:12:39,800 Speaker 1: you so much. Good morning everyone, Michael McKee and I 228 00:12:39,920 --> 00:12:43,079 Speaker 1: thank you for your comments on Friday. You know, and 229 00:12:43,120 --> 00:12:44,800 Speaker 1: I guess it was fun like I mean, I don't 230 00:12:44,800 --> 00:12:46,920 Speaker 1: know funds the right word, but it was amazing to 231 00:12:47,040 --> 00:12:50,640 Speaker 1: say it is, you know, fun when you have breaking 232 00:12:50,720 --> 00:12:53,480 Speaker 1: news like that in stunning news. Thank you to our guests, 233 00:12:53,480 --> 00:12:56,200 Speaker 1: particularly in short notice Bob since on short notice Friday 234 00:12:56,280 --> 00:13:00,320 Speaker 1: and David blanche Flower of Dartmouth College, Stephen Stanley Amorous 235 00:13:00,360 --> 00:13:03,960 Speaker 1: peer upon. It was good with us on long notice, 236 00:13:04,040 --> 00:13:07,599 Speaker 1: Marshal snid Shine. As we look at mergers and acquisitions 237 00:13:07,720 --> 00:13:10,679 Speaker 1: and the linkage is here, I guess into the spirit 238 00:13:10,800 --> 00:13:14,760 Speaker 1: of what we do. It explained to me the percentage 239 00:13:14,800 --> 00:13:20,320 Speaker 1: of synergies being taken now in deals, our corporations carving 240 00:13:20,360 --> 00:13:24,200 Speaker 1: out more cost savings than before the same. Is there 241 00:13:24,320 --> 00:13:26,760 Speaker 1: something different about it this time around? Well, I think 242 00:13:26,800 --> 00:13:30,720 Speaker 1: cost savings are a big driver of the large strategic 243 00:13:30,800 --> 00:13:35,440 Speaker 1: transactions Tom and indeed even the tax in version deals 244 00:13:35,480 --> 00:13:37,520 Speaker 1: that have now that window is largely shut down and 245 00:13:37,640 --> 00:13:39,640 Speaker 1: which is why the fights are allergant. Deal is no 246 00:13:39,720 --> 00:13:42,800 Speaker 1: longer in the marketplace. Even those had a fairly significant 247 00:13:42,800 --> 00:13:44,720 Speaker 1: amount of cost saving. Now when it gets out of control. 248 00:13:44,800 --> 00:13:46,480 Speaker 1: When you think you're gonna cut so much cost that 249 00:13:46,520 --> 00:13:49,959 Speaker 1: you're not actually going to be innovating or investing anymore, 250 00:13:50,280 --> 00:13:52,520 Speaker 1: you run into a problem if you overdo it. That's valiant. 251 00:13:52,559 --> 00:13:55,440 Speaker 1: They did too many acquisitions, cut too many costs, didn't 252 00:13:55,480 --> 00:13:57,360 Speaker 1: in fact emphatically they didn't want to invest in a 253 00:13:57,440 --> 00:14:00,960 Speaker 1: lot of drug drug development programs. I think this stuff 254 00:14:01,360 --> 00:14:04,120 Speaker 1: has a natural limit. It is a finite exercise. But 255 00:14:04,600 --> 00:14:07,800 Speaker 1: cost savings on corporate mergers have always been an important 256 00:14:07,840 --> 00:14:12,800 Speaker 1: driver that and revenue growth. What what are our companies 257 00:14:12,840 --> 00:14:17,719 Speaker 1: telling you now about how how they see efforts to 258 00:14:18,240 --> 00:14:20,760 Speaker 1: make money in the future has been debate. We've been having. 259 00:14:20,760 --> 00:14:22,800 Speaker 1: We talked about it some on Friday before the jobs 260 00:14:22,880 --> 00:14:26,600 Speaker 1: numbers came out. Are they just looking to do um 261 00:14:26,880 --> 00:14:29,760 Speaker 1: to to buy growth through M and A or is 262 00:14:29,800 --> 00:14:32,960 Speaker 1: anybody going to start investing to to create some organic 263 00:14:33,080 --> 00:14:37,160 Speaker 1: top line. Well, capital investments are down right now, and 264 00:14:37,240 --> 00:14:40,000 Speaker 1: that is a serious red flag warning signal that you 265 00:14:40,080 --> 00:14:44,120 Speaker 1: won't see on the cover of lots of newspapers or 266 00:14:44,240 --> 00:14:47,600 Speaker 1: financial tables, but it is a very very important statistics. 267 00:14:47,680 --> 00:14:51,040 Speaker 1: So to Tom's point, some acquisition is in lieu of 268 00:14:51,480 --> 00:14:55,680 Speaker 1: what could have been direct investment. That's true now, I 269 00:14:56,040 --> 00:14:59,560 Speaker 1: think when you look at macro macro trends, I think 270 00:14:59,640 --> 00:15:03,040 Speaker 1: a lot companies today have trouble planning. You use the 271 00:15:03,200 --> 00:15:05,480 Speaker 1: term future, you know, Joki Verys said the future is 272 00:15:05,520 --> 00:15:07,720 Speaker 1: the hardest thing to predict, right and m and A 273 00:15:07,800 --> 00:15:10,080 Speaker 1: and Tom said, I'm a long term planned guest. As 274 00:15:10,120 --> 00:15:12,120 Speaker 1: opposed to our friend Robert Sins who came on short notes. 275 00:15:12,160 --> 00:15:14,200 Speaker 1: He talks about currencies as a short market. M and 276 00:15:14,240 --> 00:15:16,400 Speaker 1: A is a long market and maybe there's some some 277 00:15:16,520 --> 00:15:19,640 Speaker 1: metaphor there. In order to engage in the acquisition of 278 00:15:19,720 --> 00:15:22,160 Speaker 1: a company, you have to have a view on the future. 279 00:15:22,240 --> 00:15:24,120 Speaker 1: M and A is a conviction market. It is a 280 00:15:24,280 --> 00:15:27,520 Speaker 1: It is the last stop in long term planning. And 281 00:15:27,640 --> 00:15:30,760 Speaker 1: right now, the future is the damnedest, hardest thing to predict. 282 00:15:31,080 --> 00:15:33,880 Speaker 1: We have very very low growth. We are highly addicted 283 00:15:34,040 --> 00:15:37,040 Speaker 1: in most economies, certainly the United States and Europe, to 284 00:15:37,200 --> 00:15:41,080 Speaker 1: very low rates. It's hard to know where where opportunity lies. 285 00:15:41,200 --> 00:15:43,920 Speaker 1: How do you when you see Bloomberg headlines which thank 286 00:15:43,960 --> 00:15:46,480 Speaker 1: you an I know you look at Marshall when you 287 00:15:46,600 --> 00:15:49,520 Speaker 1: see someone say a deals a creative in the first 288 00:15:49,640 --> 00:15:52,720 Speaker 1: year or the second year? Am I right? That The 289 00:15:52,840 --> 00:15:54,760 Speaker 1: reason they can say that is the plug in of 290 00:15:54,880 --> 00:15:57,160 Speaker 1: interest rates, a lot of it. If we have normal 291 00:15:57,280 --> 00:16:00,760 Speaker 1: interest rates, they be jaw owning dilute of until blah 292 00:16:00,840 --> 00:16:03,040 Speaker 1: blah blah, Tom, I'm gonna go even yes you are, 293 00:16:03,200 --> 00:16:06,480 Speaker 1: but I'm gonna go even a step further. Some of 294 00:16:06,600 --> 00:16:10,440 Speaker 1: what constituted accretion in M and A modeling and financial 295 00:16:10,520 --> 00:16:13,880 Speaker 1: planning in deals was not cost. It wasn't even cheap 296 00:16:13,920 --> 00:16:18,080 Speaker 1: the cost of cheap money. It was the trading value 297 00:16:18,200 --> 00:16:22,320 Speaker 1: of the stock making the acquisition. Yes, interesting, and that's 298 00:16:22,360 --> 00:16:25,400 Speaker 1: not sustainable. If you have this great rotation that has 299 00:16:25,440 --> 00:16:28,120 Speaker 1: gone on from fixed income into equities for the simple, 300 00:16:28,280 --> 00:16:31,160 Speaker 1: plain and simple reason that cash is so cheap, capital 301 00:16:31,200 --> 00:16:33,360 Speaker 1: so cheap, but you can't make any money in most 302 00:16:33,440 --> 00:16:36,520 Speaker 1: categories of fixed income, certainly not the safe categories, then 303 00:16:36,560 --> 00:16:40,000 Speaker 1: you you have seen this great rotation into equities. Also, 304 00:16:40,120 --> 00:16:42,800 Speaker 1: cheap capital for acquirers is cheap for all acquirers who 305 00:16:42,880 --> 00:16:45,600 Speaker 1: must compete to buy a company. So cheap capital doesn't 306 00:16:45,600 --> 00:16:48,440 Speaker 1: mean cheap acquisition. All the other players have the same 307 00:16:48,520 --> 00:16:52,680 Speaker 1: chief capital. And what's important here, correct me if I'm wrong, uh, Marshal, Like, 308 00:16:52,840 --> 00:16:56,400 Speaker 1: what's interesting is on announcement everybody will job bone. It's 309 00:16:56,440 --> 00:16:58,800 Speaker 1: a creative, a creative, a creative, and when they have 310 00:16:58,880 --> 00:17:00,680 Speaker 1: to adjust that a year out or two years or 311 00:17:00,720 --> 00:17:04,440 Speaker 1: three years out, there's nobody there to here the adjustment. Well, 312 00:17:04,440 --> 00:17:06,920 Speaker 1: I think that's truely, go oops, I think that's true. 313 00:17:06,920 --> 00:17:09,200 Speaker 1: And it's long been the case in our business that 314 00:17:10,440 --> 00:17:13,800 Speaker 1: in interviews CEO round Table and CFO roundtable interviews, you 315 00:17:13,880 --> 00:17:16,280 Speaker 1: find that some forty or fifty percent of acquirers will 316 00:17:16,320 --> 00:17:19,520 Speaker 1: tell you that they materially overstated their their synergies, that 317 00:17:19,560 --> 00:17:22,320 Speaker 1: they were not able to achieve that much. Did you 318 00:17:22,400 --> 00:17:24,920 Speaker 1: ever look at somebody's proposal when they come to you 319 00:17:25,320 --> 00:17:28,680 Speaker 1: for advice and say, no, it's not don't do this, 320 00:17:28,840 --> 00:17:30,320 Speaker 1: you're not going to make money, or you're gonna have 321 00:17:30,359 --> 00:17:34,640 Speaker 1: to adjust after a while. Um is ever? Obviously Yes, 322 00:17:35,000 --> 00:17:36,840 Speaker 1: But I'm gonna tell you a dirty little secret about 323 00:17:36,880 --> 00:17:38,399 Speaker 1: the M and A business right here and now on 324 00:17:38,440 --> 00:17:43,040 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. Most of what constitutes M and A advisors work, 325 00:17:43,560 --> 00:17:45,760 Speaker 1: the bread and butter, is actually selling companies. It's not 326 00:17:45,880 --> 00:17:50,040 Speaker 1: buying companies. Many, many, many large acquirers of companies have 327 00:17:50,160 --> 00:17:53,240 Speaker 1: assembled a team of X M and A bankers in 328 00:17:53,400 --> 00:17:55,760 Speaker 1: house to do their own by side work, so they 329 00:17:55,840 --> 00:17:59,520 Speaker 1: are less and less frequently even engaging a by side advisor. 330 00:17:59,560 --> 00:18:02,440 Speaker 1: Look look Comcast, for example, they just hired my my, 331 00:18:02,720 --> 00:18:05,239 Speaker 1: my buddy Bobby Trough from Morgan Sandley. Well he did 332 00:18:05,280 --> 00:18:08,040 Speaker 1: the DreamWorks animation acquisition a couple of billion bucks without 333 00:18:08,040 --> 00:18:09,880 Speaker 1: a bank, or didn't even hire Morgan Familey's old shop. 334 00:18:09,920 --> 00:18:12,680 Speaker 1: He could do it on the cell side. What you're 335 00:18:12,720 --> 00:18:15,760 Speaker 1: really trying to do, if I have to be entirely honest, 336 00:18:16,720 --> 00:18:19,760 Speaker 1: is get your clients price so high that the buyer 337 00:18:19,800 --> 00:18:24,159 Speaker 1: will regret it. And is there a trick to that? 338 00:18:24,720 --> 00:18:28,080 Speaker 1: I mean to putting the lipstick on the pig. Well, 339 00:18:28,359 --> 00:18:31,440 Speaker 1: hopefully you're not selling a pig. You're selling a good company. Um, 340 00:18:31,960 --> 00:18:33,960 Speaker 1: And there's different tricks to tools of the trade. You 341 00:18:34,080 --> 00:18:36,320 Speaker 1: sometimes you run an auction, not as often as you 342 00:18:36,400 --> 00:18:38,600 Speaker 1: might think. By the way, all auctions actually are, if 343 00:18:38,640 --> 00:18:42,680 Speaker 1: they're done correctly, are a series of bilateral negotiations among 344 00:18:42,800 --> 00:18:45,560 Speaker 1: the participants in the auction, and you're really negotiating with 345 00:18:45,800 --> 00:18:49,000 Speaker 1: each participant. Um, that's the game within the game. I 346 00:18:49,080 --> 00:18:51,080 Speaker 1: tell that to my students. I just taught taught a 347 00:18:51,160 --> 00:18:52,680 Speaker 1: course in M and A at Harvard Law School, and 348 00:18:52,680 --> 00:18:54,320 Speaker 1: one of my students asked me, can you lie when 349 00:18:54,359 --> 00:18:56,679 Speaker 1: you're selling a company? Yeah, there's a wonderful question, right, 350 00:18:56,680 --> 00:18:58,399 Speaker 1: And you got that question from the law student not 351 00:18:58,680 --> 00:19:01,719 Speaker 1: normally teaching the business schools, right. And I said to him, 352 00:19:01,800 --> 00:19:04,359 Speaker 1: it's not that you can lie. You can't engage in fraud. 353 00:19:04,840 --> 00:19:06,959 Speaker 1: But you're an advocate, can you can you lie when 354 00:19:06,960 --> 00:19:08,560 Speaker 1: you're in front of a jury. As a lawyer will 355 00:19:08,560 --> 00:19:11,159 Speaker 1: know you can't lie, but you have to tell a 356 00:19:11,440 --> 00:19:15,119 Speaker 1: version of the truth that might actually achieve your clients objective. 357 00:19:15,400 --> 00:19:17,119 Speaker 1: And then the time that we've got left, have you 358 00:19:17,200 --> 00:19:21,080 Speaker 1: ever seen a unicorns? I see a lot of companies 359 00:19:21,119 --> 00:19:23,320 Speaker 1: that could that geld valued his unicorns. I've never actually 360 00:19:23,359 --> 00:19:26,200 Speaker 1: seen what I mean. I mean, I will. I understand 361 00:19:26,280 --> 00:19:28,280 Speaker 1: that there's got to be a revenue growth or capture 362 00:19:28,280 --> 00:19:31,160 Speaker 1: of market where you can extrapolate out and I'll cut 363 00:19:31,320 --> 00:19:34,920 Speaker 1: Uber some slack, but some of these things, where did 364 00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:41,200 Speaker 1: this massive extrapolation come from? Do we blank guys like you? Well, 365 00:19:41,280 --> 00:19:43,280 Speaker 1: the unicorns are not really guys like me. It's a 366 00:19:43,320 --> 00:19:46,760 Speaker 1: different category of banker. It's the private placement specialists who 367 00:19:46,800 --> 00:19:50,840 Speaker 1: are selling equities for UH for high growth companies that 368 00:19:50,920 --> 00:19:52,679 Speaker 1: have big, big, big stories and listen, some of them 369 00:19:52,720 --> 00:19:54,280 Speaker 1: are big, big, big flops. Look at what the hell 370 00:19:54,320 --> 00:19:56,919 Speaker 1: went on with Sara knows where Walgreens company we represent. 371 00:19:57,040 --> 00:19:59,320 Speaker 1: We love Walgreens, but they clearly made a mistake. They 372 00:19:59,359 --> 00:20:02,080 Speaker 1: bought into a acorn thesis that just wasn't real. Yeah, 373 00:20:03,040 --> 00:20:05,560 Speaker 1: so it happens. I think you look at Uber, is 374 00:20:05,560 --> 00:20:07,399 Speaker 1: it worth sixty or seventy billion? I don't know. I 375 00:20:07,440 --> 00:20:09,720 Speaker 1: mean there's a few other competitors, Lift and a few others. 376 00:20:09,920 --> 00:20:12,959 Speaker 1: On the other hand, who's actually propping up these numbers? 377 00:20:13,080 --> 00:20:17,760 Speaker 1: It's not just I'll go with my Michael Mabousian's basic 378 00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:20,160 Speaker 1: idea that a few people win, and maybe Uber wins 379 00:20:20,200 --> 00:20:23,639 Speaker 1: or doesn't. I don't have an opinion. I just I 380 00:20:23,800 --> 00:20:30,200 Speaker 1: see an extrapolation into the future that's nowhere within the 381 00:20:30,320 --> 00:20:32,760 Speaker 1: c f A curriculum for folks. Let's have a moment 382 00:20:32,800 --> 00:20:36,960 Speaker 1: of silence for all those on Saturday who took level one, two, three, 383 00:20:37,000 --> 00:20:39,880 Speaker 1: and four of the c f A. Come on, I mean, 384 00:20:40,240 --> 00:20:43,480 Speaker 1: how do you extrapolate these equity returns and many of 385 00:20:43,560 --> 00:20:45,520 Speaker 1: them haven't turned out? Yes, But Tom, you would have 386 00:20:45,560 --> 00:20:47,720 Speaker 1: said the same thing. I think about the Facebook I 387 00:20:47,840 --> 00:20:49,720 Speaker 1: p O, which was a charade and a disaster in 388 00:20:49,760 --> 00:20:53,240 Speaker 1: a debacle and circus and everything else. But when the 389 00:20:53,440 --> 00:20:57,359 Speaker 1: settled it really was worth over a billion bucks. I 390 00:20:57,440 --> 00:21:01,320 Speaker 1: guess I just got put in my place. Well, no, 391 00:21:01,440 --> 00:21:05,560 Speaker 1: I gave you thar nos. Yeah, there's one for one, 392 00:21:05,640 --> 00:21:09,879 Speaker 1: but do not very equivalent companies. So what are you 393 00:21:09,960 --> 00:21:16,520 Speaker 1: telling people now about what this this terrible future that 394 00:21:16,720 --> 00:21:19,800 Speaker 1: you can't predict is going to be. I mean, somebody 395 00:21:19,840 --> 00:21:23,240 Speaker 1: comes in and they say, I want to do a deal. Um, well, 396 00:21:24,000 --> 00:21:26,119 Speaker 1: so the first thing that I think we have to 397 00:21:26,200 --> 00:21:30,120 Speaker 1: all tell ourselves is Tom's right, we have to get 398 00:21:30,160 --> 00:21:32,520 Speaker 1: back to base six. The people who actually can take 399 00:21:32,560 --> 00:21:34,440 Speaker 1: an example, the series one to three or four of 400 00:21:34,480 --> 00:21:36,000 Speaker 1: the c f A, you actually know how to value 401 00:21:36,000 --> 00:21:39,000 Speaker 1: a company. They include people like Warren Buffett, who are 402 00:21:39,080 --> 00:21:41,639 Speaker 1: not dumb, who don't buy into momentums, who don't buy 403 00:21:41,680 --> 00:21:44,760 Speaker 1: into the flavor du jour, but are instead looking at fundamentals. 404 00:21:44,800 --> 00:21:47,040 Speaker 1: It is always better to look at fundamentals than to 405 00:21:47,119 --> 00:21:49,800 Speaker 1: look at the shortest term track. Would I would call 406 00:21:49,840 --> 00:21:54,520 Speaker 1: it the extrapolation, which is fair enough. Marshall. Gotta leave 407 00:21:54,560 --> 00:21:56,560 Speaker 1: it there. Thank you so much for coming by with 408 00:21:56,720 --> 00:22:00,520 Speaker 1: Sunshine Partners. Marshall, what what question is it on the 409 00:22:01,080 --> 00:22:03,159 Speaker 1: on the on the CFA exam where the answer is 410 00:22:03,280 --> 00:22:08,480 Speaker 1: Tom is right, there's none in my case. There was 411 00:22:08,560 --> 00:22:14,280 Speaker 1: a classic example on indirect indirect cash flow. People lives 412 00:22:14,359 --> 00:22:17,280 Speaker 1: were lost across the floor of the Javit Center, and 413 00:22:17,359 --> 00:22:22,119 Speaker 1: they question. A number of years ago, Michael McKee and 414 00:22:22,200 --> 00:22:24,520 Speaker 1: I say good morning to Taylor Riggs is taking the 415 00:22:24,600 --> 00:22:28,520 Speaker 1: rest of the year off after attempting the CFA. Bloomberg 416 00:22:28,600 --> 00:22:29,080 Speaker 1: surveillance