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Speaker 3: dot Com. Turning down to oil, we're going to be

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Speaker 3: joining in the second by Rory Johnson. He's an excellent

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Speaker 3: oil analyst.

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Speaker 1: But we do have to show you.

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Speaker 3: Some absolutely apocalyptic images coming out of Tehran. Let's go

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Speaker 3: to put these up here on the screen so we

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Speaker 3: can show all of you. The first here is some

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Speaker 3: of the destruction. This is an Iranian reporter standing in

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Speaker 3: front of an oil facility in the middle of Tehran,

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Speaker 3: one of the largest facilities which supplies the entire city.

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Speaker 3: These are reporting is really is air strikes, which not

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Speaker 3: only struck the facility, but these black clouds started coming

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Speaker 3: all the way up into the sky and authorities there

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Speaker 3: in Tehran are now reporting risks of acid rain, black clouds,

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Speaker 3: and smoke across the entire city. So you can see

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Speaker 3: that the entire thing was on fire. There were storm

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Speaker 3: drains from which oil was actually flowing into civilian infrastructure

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Speaker 3: that remained on fire. I mean literally out of the

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Speaker 3: scene of a movie. We also have this video from

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Speaker 3: a CNN reporter who is on the ground in Tehran

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Speaker 3: actually showing the raining oil on top of everything in

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Speaker 3: the surrounding vicinity.

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Speaker 1: Let's take a listen.

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Speaker 4: I want to show you something else, because it's also raining,

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Speaker 4: but you can see that the rain, the rain water

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Speaker 4: is actually black, also saturated, it appears with oil. And

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Speaker 4: then if we look over there, you can see that

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Speaker 4: the water that's running down here also is black. So

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Speaker 4: that's what's coming down this morning, this sort of oil

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Speaker 4: filled brain that we have right now on the Iranian capital.

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Speaker 4: After the strikes their place.

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Speaker 3: Oil filled rain, and of course that was immediately responded

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Speaker 3: to by the Iranians who are targeting a lot of

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Speaker 3: oil facilities across the region. So to get into all

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Speaker 3: of that, where the price of oil will go and

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Speaker 3: where the markets stand as of right now. We're going

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Speaker 3: to welcome Roy Johnston. He is an independent oil analyst

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Speaker 3: and he's going to join the show. Now joining us now,

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Speaker 3: as I said, is Roy Johnston. He is the founder

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Speaker 3: of commoditycontext dot com and he's a longtime friend of

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Speaker 3: the show.

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Speaker 1: Rory, thanks for joining us.

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Speaker 5: Thanks for having me.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, not under the best circumstances.

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Speaker 3: Unfortunately, been following your work quite a bit independent oil

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Speaker 3: analysts and has really forecasted things with a very honest view.

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Speaker 3: And so we want to start with Donald Trump's first truth,

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Speaker 3: social and reaction to crude oil features going over one

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Speaker 3: hundred dollars per barrel.

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Speaker 1: Let's put it up here on the screen.

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Speaker 3: He says, short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly

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Speaker 3: when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over,

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Speaker 3: is a very small price to pay.

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Speaker 1: Only fools would think differently.

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Speaker 3: So, Rory, are you amongst those fools who think differently

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Speaker 3: here about the price of oil?

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Speaker 1: And where do you see things right now?

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Speaker 5: I'm definitely among the fools on that one.

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Speaker 6: I think, as I was saying at the time when

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Speaker 6: the President you know, truths that.

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Speaker 5: It's kind of the worst thing he could say in

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Speaker 5: the current moment.

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Speaker 6: I think the important thing to keep in mind here

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Speaker 6: is that the main thing the oil market is attempting

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Speaker 6: to handicap is the duration of this disruption through the

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Speaker 6: straight ofform moves and the broader attacks against infrastructure in

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Speaker 6: the region.

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Speaker 5: So when the.

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Speaker 6: President says, you know, don't worry, it's a short term thing, no, biggie.

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Speaker 6: I think the market's concern is that he actually believes that,

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Speaker 6: because if he actually believes that, then this could go

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Speaker 6: on much longer than anyone had feared. I mean, going

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Speaker 6: into this, I did not think there was any chance.

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Speaker 6: I had never thought I would see this in my career.

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Speaker 6: This is the largest scale disruption of energy systems at

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Speaker 6: least since the nineteen seventies, and potentially, if this goes

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Speaker 6: on much longer, potentially the longest in history, you know,

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Speaker 6: the largest in history. So if this continues going on

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Speaker 6: and the President's statements make it seem like this is

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Speaker 6: all under control, this is absolutely not under control.

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Speaker 5: This is massive and prices.

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Speaker 6: Are exploding, and the longer this goes on, the worse

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Speaker 6: it's going to get.

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Speaker 7: How bad could it get.

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Speaker 6: I mean, it's one of those it's one of those

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Speaker 6: shocks where the supply loss is so large that what

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Speaker 6: you need to do is you need to incentivize demand

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Speaker 6: destruction across a whole variety of sectors air travel, freight,

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Speaker 6: consumer consumption, everything needs to go. And what you know,

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Speaker 6: when we think about the way this would manifest, basically

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Speaker 6: we have two sides of this. Either the prices to

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Speaker 6: rise and the incentives and shipping needs to rise to

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Speaker 6: such a level that people begin to risk making the

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Speaker 6: transit through the straight from OS or the war ends and.

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Speaker 5: The straight reopens.

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Speaker 6: Otherwise, if we still have this twenty million barrel a

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Speaker 6: day loss of supply from the goal system, and just

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Speaker 6: to put that in perspective, that is roughly the exact

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Speaker 6: same size of disruption, the size of demand loss that

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Speaker 6: that we kind of saw at the peak of COVID

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Speaker 6: demand destruction in March and April of twenty twenty. During

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Speaker 6: that period, we were all locked in, you know, planes

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Speaker 6: were not in the air. So what we're talking about

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Speaker 6: is is kind of what price would be needed to

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Speaker 6: replicate the conditions of the bottom of COVID. That's the

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Speaker 6: kind of scary part about this and the way this

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Speaker 6: would play out is you know, basically, we in advanced,

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Speaker 6: kind of wealthy countries probably are just going to pay

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Speaker 6: much much higher prices than pump because those prices will

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Speaker 6: be needed to incentivize those supplies of those fuels remaining

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Speaker 6: in our economies. The rest of you know, the developing

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Speaker 6: world where they can't afford these imports, this is going

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Speaker 6: to manifest is outright shortages for them. So that's this

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Speaker 6: way you're already seeing gas lines or seeing everything else.

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Speaker 6: This is something that we already at this stage, we've

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Speaker 6: already had such a massive kind of air bubble in

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Speaker 6: the system of the loss of disruption and experts already

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Speaker 6: this is already a kind of a historic crisis. If

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Speaker 6: this goes on longer, there's no telling how high we

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Speaker 6: could go. Two hundred dollars a barrel. It's like, it's

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Speaker 6: very very easy to just say numbers that are higher,

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Speaker 6: because there is no number high enough to incentivize the

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Speaker 6: level of destruction that we would need to see.

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Speaker 1: That's crazy. Let's put C six up on the screen.

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Speaker 3: This was your analysis, you say, as someone who routinely

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Speaker 3: mocks perma bullish clickbait oil forecast. I want to be

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Speaker 3: exceptionally clear, crude will go to two hundred dollars per

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Speaker 3: barrel en route higher unless traffic through the straight resumes.

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Speaker 3: Not clickbait, rather brutal physics and necessary economic incentive. So

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Speaker 3: to put it into perspective, you know, everybody not everybody's

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Speaker 3: a barrel expert.

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Speaker 1: What does that mean?

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Speaker 3: What does that mean in terms of what does that

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Speaker 3: mean in terms of gas prices at the pump? Last

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Speaker 3: time we talked Russia Ukraine, you got you know, potentially

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Speaker 3: six dollars a gallon.

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Speaker 1: What does that look like two hundred dollars a barrel.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, so even as we stand right now today, the

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Speaker 6: price of our Bob gasoline kind of futures are implying

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Speaker 6: that we've already jumped back above four dollars a gallon

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Speaker 6: in the US and that is going to stick and

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Speaker 6: continue going higher.

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Speaker 5: So yeah, five six dollars a gallon, this is.

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Speaker 6: Going to be you know, again, we need to just

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Speaker 6: do something to break the demand cycle, and those are

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Speaker 6: the prices it's going to take. What I should note

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Speaker 6: is that while gasoline is going you're going to mainly

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Speaker 6: feel the loss of or the oil price spike in

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Speaker 6: that in the gasoline price. What we're seeing is an

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Speaker 6: even more acute disruption in Middle dislots, so those would

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Speaker 6: be your you know, your diesels, your jet fuels, et cetera.

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Speaker 6: And part of that is because the Middle East, in

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Speaker 6: addition to being obviously the world's largest kind of single

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Speaker 6: conduit of oil exports or crude oil exports, is also

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Speaker 6: a major supplier of jet fuel to Asia and largely

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Speaker 6: diesel to Europe. And the diesel to your replaced the

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Speaker 6: banned imports from Russia following the invasion of Ukraine twenty two,

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Speaker 6: which is roughly the last time that the oil market

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Speaker 6: was exploding, and we were talking, you know, the last

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Speaker 6: time I first jumped on this show, and this is

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Speaker 6: the kind of situation we're seeing again.

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Speaker 5: Even in the opening.

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Speaker 6: Salvo of this what we saw was jet fuel demand

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Speaker 6: in Asia jumped to the equivalent of more than two

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Speaker 6: hundred dollars a barrel already. And part of what's crazy

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Speaker 6: here is that the refined products market, particular in Asia,

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Speaker 6: is going to front run the impact that we're seeing

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Speaker 6: from crude. And that's because, you know, as of a

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Speaker 6: week and a half ago, tankers were still flowing out

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Speaker 6: of the straight from US, So it takes a month

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Speaker 6: to two months for those tankers to get.

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Speaker 5: To those their destinations.

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Speaker 6: So it's going to be a month or two and

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Speaker 6: so we start to feel the loss of those crude

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Speaker 6: supplies in those global finding systems.

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Speaker 5: But what we're already seeing is that.

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Speaker 6: Refineries, particularly in Asia, were to depend on this feedstock,

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Speaker 6: they're terrified. Their worst case scenario is shutting down. They

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Speaker 6: don't like tutting their facilities down. It's very complicated, very expensive,

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Speaker 6: very tough to get.

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Speaker 5: Them back up and running.

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Speaker 6: So they have preemptively reduced operating levels, let's say, from

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Speaker 6: you know, ninety percent to sixty five percent, in order

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Speaker 6: to kind of extend the runway. But what that's done

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Speaker 6: is it's immediately cut supplies of diesel, jet fuel, et

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Speaker 6: cetera to the region. So, you know, this is why

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Speaker 6: the products impact is front running what we're even going

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Speaker 6: to see in crude.

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Speaker 2: So we are obviously much more energy independent than we

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Speaker 2: were in the seventies. Are their tools at the US

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Speaker 2: government's disposal that they could use to help blunt the

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Speaker 2: impact for consumers?

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Speaker 6: Yeah, so I think the most important and obvious kind

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Speaker 6: of tool in this toolkit is the Strategic Patrolum Reserve.

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Speaker 6: And we actually saw I just woke up and saw

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Speaker 6: the news that the G seven with the United States

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Speaker 6: is considering a release of strategic stocks through the IA.

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Speaker 6: Potentially was a three hundred or four hundred million barrels,

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Speaker 6: which would that's exactly what should be.

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Speaker 5: Happening right now.

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Speaker 6: It's actually shocking to me that up until this point,

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Speaker 6: the Trump administration has so kind of stubbornly refused to

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Speaker 6: entertain the idea of an SPR release, and partly because

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Speaker 6: they tied themselves in so many knots lambasting the Biden

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Speaker 6: administration about the use of the SPR and twenty twenty two,

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Speaker 6: which again at that time was a historic crisis. And

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Speaker 6: then because you know, even even in the Big Beautiful

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Speaker 6: Bill last year, the Trump administration had attempted to get

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Speaker 6: more money for the SPR to refill because the SPR

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Speaker 6: is effectively out of money.

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Speaker 5: Now.

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Speaker 6: The Biden administration had refilled, you know, sixty seven million barrels,

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Speaker 6: but then they ran out of cash because the rest

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Speaker 6: of the cash have been remitted to Congress. They need

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Speaker 6: more money to get to fill the SPR, and they

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Speaker 6: weren't able to get I think the actual appropriation requests

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Speaker 6: dropped from like a one point two billion to like

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Speaker 6: one hundred and eighteen million or those are rough numbers,

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Speaker 6: but you know, you had a massive cut in that

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Speaker 6: volume of crude, which is one hundred million dollars for

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Speaker 6: refill and crude and the scars basically nothing, and we

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Speaker 6: needed a lot more than that. So I think that's

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Speaker 6: the situation we're in right now.

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Speaker 3: So, Rory, what we've seen right now is effective closure

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Speaker 3: of the straits of horn Moves. I know that there

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Speaker 3: are other pipelines which are operating. However, the Iranians there's

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Speaker 3: been othersome reporting about potential strikes on those. If we

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Speaker 3: do see shut down with a RAMCO also LNG, what

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Speaker 3: does that look like, you know, for our global energy market?

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Speaker 3: As you're saying, it's just demand destruction. People were just

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Speaker 3: in the developed world in Africa, it's like stop driving,

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Speaker 3: You're not going anywhere.

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Speaker 5: Is that what it looks like basically? And I think

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Speaker 5: so there's important differentiation here.

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Speaker 6: So when we talk about the closure of the straight

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Speaker 6: from Moos, that's you Let's say, you know, these numbers

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Speaker 6: are all over the place. Let's say twenty million barrel.

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Speaker 6: Roughly twenty percent of global supplies travel through the strait.

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Speaker 6: When those were effectively shuttered, I think of it as

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Speaker 6: like a kinked garden hose, right, so you know nothing's

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Speaker 6: coming through, but if it only lasted a day or two,

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Speaker 6: you could just unkick the hose and things just.

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Speaker 5: Kind of flow back to normal.

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Speaker 6: What we were seeing in the attacks against energy infrastructure

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Speaker 6: in the region, that's even the larger tail wrist than

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Speaker 6: the straight than the closure of the strait itself. You know,

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Speaker 6: if this the straight closure is like a kinked garden hose,

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Speaker 6: these facility attacks are more like taking a shotgun and

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Speaker 6: then blasting off the faucet to which the hose is attached.

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Speaker 6: Everything in the oil market is repayable, but that's a

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Speaker 6: far larger, longer kind of repair operation. The other thing

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Speaker 6: we've seen beyond that is that the pressure from that

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Speaker 6: that you know.

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Speaker 5: Kinked hose has built back up.

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Speaker 6: And the other issue is that a lot of the producers,

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Speaker 6: most notably are Rock and Kuwait, don't have a lot

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Speaker 6: of domestic storage for their for their crude, so when

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Speaker 6: they can't ship it out, they basically start shutting in production.

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Speaker 5: And what we've already seen is as of yesterday. I

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Speaker 5: haven't check the numbers yet this morning.

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Speaker 6: As of yesterday a rock had already shut in forced

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Speaker 6: because of the lack of export optionality. They'd already shut

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Speaker 6: in more than three million barrels a day, which, again

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Speaker 6: rewinding twenty twenty two, when we would have last spoke,

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Speaker 6: that was the feared loss from Russia with three million

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Speaker 6: barrels that we never actually saw, and that feared loss

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Speaker 6: was enough to push oil prices above one.

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Speaker 5: Hundred and twenty dollars a barrel.

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Speaker 6: We already have realized that loss in the first week

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Speaker 6: of this of this crisis in the golf.

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Speaker 3: And I think the question is of what we expected

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Speaker 3: loss in twenty twenty two, just to put it into context.

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Speaker 6: Exactly, and we've already lost it. So that can be

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Speaker 6: turned back on, but it can't be turned back on

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Speaker 6: like you know, flipping a switch. It's going to take

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Speaker 6: weeks potentially, you know, you know, days or potentially weeks up.

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Speaker 5: To a month.

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Speaker 6: And that is again, these are massive volumes of crude

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Speaker 6: and the system needs to open itself back up. And

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Speaker 6: at this stage, the market and myself increasingly has no

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Speaker 6: confidence that this that this conflict is going to end again.

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Speaker 6: I never thought we would get this far. What we'd

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Speaker 6: seen from President Trump up to this stage had been

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Speaker 6: a series ever since, you know, twenty nineteen, when he

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Speaker 6: killed General Sulamani.

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Speaker 5: It was quick, sharp, You had kind.

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Speaker 6: Of almost a symbolic exchange of fire between US forces

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Speaker 6: and the Iranians, you know, the Iranians would you know

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Speaker 6: this was also happened in June of last year and

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Speaker 6: twenty twenty five during the twelve Day war between Israel

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Speaker 6: and Iran. You would kind of get these kind of

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Speaker 6: feigned attacks that you know, they weren't the big deal,

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Speaker 6: but you know, Iran couldn't be seen to just roll over,

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Speaker 6: so it was kind of like, we're gonna hit you

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Speaker 6: with a couple of missiles in a warehouse or you know,

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Speaker 6: a base, but you know it's not it's not a

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Speaker 6: massive thing, and they can kind of just like, okay,

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Speaker 6: that's fine, and we'll pack up and go away.

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Speaker 5: This time, however, they've gone full boar. You know, Trump

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Speaker 5: has not let up as quickly.

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Speaker 6: It's not been a flashy kind of cinematic event followed

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Speaker 6: by a declaration of victory, which is I still think

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Speaker 6: what he was hoping to achieve here, but the Iranians

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Speaker 6: did not give him that opportunity, and therefore we are

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Speaker 6: now stuck in this kind of prolonged conflict. And the

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Speaker 6: White House very clearly does not have any kind of

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Speaker 6: durable escape plan, and they did not plan for any

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Speaker 6: of these energy contingencies. We hear about things like shipping traffic,

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Speaker 6: you know, war insurance coverage from the Treasury Department. You know,

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Speaker 6: this is stuff that if they were really planning this,

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Speaker 6: they should have had this figured out months ago.

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Speaker 5: The fact that the fact that we are just.

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Speaker 6: At this now, they are clearly reacting and they're flailing.

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Speaker 2: I mean, that is part of what is so crazy

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Speaker 2: to me. Like literally, anyone, if you say war in

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Speaker 2: the Middle East, the first thing they're going to.

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Speaker 7: Think of as oil.

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Speaker 2: Right, It's like the basic number one of what's going

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Speaker 2: to be impacted if you have some sort of war

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Speaker 2: anywhere in the Middle East. My last question for you,

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Speaker 2: because I know you've got to run, we really appreciate

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Speaker 2: your time, is how does this ripple We're focused on oil,

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Speaker 2: we're focused on gas pumps, but how does this ripple

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Speaker 2: thround the entire economy?

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Speaker 6: Yeah, so I mean, you know, this is going to

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Speaker 6: feel if this continues much like much like the kind

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Speaker 6: of supply chain disruptions that we experienced in COVID. We

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Speaker 6: talked about this kind of bullwhip effect that when in

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Speaker 6: COVID we lost all this demand, so supply contracted in

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Speaker 6: and then demand recovered and supply was unable to keep up.

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Speaker 6: This is basically we're starting on the second phase of that.

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Speaker 6: We've lost the supply and it's such a large portion

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Speaker 6: of supply that we can't really make it up easily.

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Speaker 6: So you're going to start rationing throughout the economy. That's

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Speaker 6: going to force all of these kind of various industries

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Speaker 6: and countries into kind of more zero sum competition where

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Speaker 6: the system's not designed.

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Speaker 5: To go to work like that.

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Speaker 6: So it's going to be really hard, you know, to

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Speaker 6: predict the kind of knock on effects here. But if again,

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Speaker 6: if the stage cloth all of this is contingent on traffic,

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Speaker 6: not you know, resuming through the straight But if that occurs,

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Speaker 6: or we're talking about is not a global reception, We're

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Speaker 6: talking about upwards of like some kind of global depression

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Speaker 6: level event.

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Speaker 5: If this occurs, wow.

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Speaker 3: Wow, sobering words up again not an alarmist person, a

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Speaker 3: very straight minded independent analyst.

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Speaker 1: We appreciate you was always Rory. Thank you, thanks for.

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Speaker 5: Having me, guys.

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Speaker 2: Joining us now to discuss a number of recent developments though,

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Speaker 2: including the selection of a new Supreme Leader of Iran is.

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Speaker 7: Front of the show.

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Speaker 2: Treta Parsi of course at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Staycraft.

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Speaker 2: Great to see, sir, Good, good to be with you, guys.

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Speaker 2: So let's go and put d one up on the screen.

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Speaker 2: As I mentioned, new Supreme Leader has been chosen. He's

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Speaker 2: the son of the previous Supreme Leader. Tell us about

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Speaker 2: the significance of this and how he may differ from

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Speaker 2: his father.

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Speaker 8: So let me first start off by saying that very

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Speaker 8: few people on the outside really know much about what's

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Speaker 8: going on in the assembly of expert s hope brigand

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Speaker 8: who actually elects the Supreme Leader. And I definitely cannot

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Speaker 8: claim to have any expertise, but from the outside, analyzing

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Speaker 8: this and reading the tea leaves over the course of

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Speaker 8: the last couple of years and months, I think it

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Speaker 8: was quite clear that prior to all of this, most

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Speaker 8: of our Kamani was not a leading candidate.

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Speaker 9: His name was still in.

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Speaker 8: There, but there was a lot of resistance to him,

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Speaker 8: not only from the previous Supreme Leader, but also from others.

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Speaker 8: It seems to me that the killing of his father

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Speaker 8: by Israel, the killing of his mother, his wife, and

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Speaker 8: his child, really actually made him much more of a

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Speaker 8: likely successor to the previous Supreme leader, particularly also mindful

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Speaker 8: of the fact that Trump came out and said that

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Speaker 8: harmony that mosh of a Hamede would be unacceptable. It's

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Speaker 8: exactly the type of endorsement that I think he needed,

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Speaker 8: because what the Iranians are trying to do right now

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Speaker 8: with this choice is to signal total and absolute defiance.

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Speaker 8: They chose someone who clearly mindful of the fact that

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Speaker 8: his wife, child, father and mother were killed by Israel,

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Speaker 8: is in no reconciliatory mood, and as a result, I think,

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Speaker 8: you know, the signal is very clear. The Iranians are

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Speaker 8: sticking to their guns. They're not going to back down.

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Speaker 8: They're certainly not going to surrender. That's the message they

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Speaker 8: want to get across with his choice. Even though I'm

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Speaker 8: really strongly confident that he was not the leading candidate

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Speaker 8: had it not been for what just happened.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, because his father even preached against hereditary monarchy, because

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Speaker 3: he was pointing out like the degeneracy of the previous

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Speaker 3: Shah regime. That's what made it even more shocking. But it's,

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Speaker 3: like you said, the fact that Donald Trump himself said

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Speaker 3: that's not somebody we want to deal with, it seems

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Speaker 3: very clearly like that is the most That is the

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Speaker 3: message intended foremost is wartime leader, somebody who himself has

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Speaker 3: personally suffered. Father is a martyr in terms of not

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Speaker 3: only religious authority, but in terms of national message to

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Speaker 3: the populace and to the world that they're not backing down.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, and look, there's not a lot of interviews with

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Speaker 8: him at all. Frankly, you know, he has a reputation

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Speaker 8: of being more hardlined than his father.

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Speaker 9: I don't know if that's true or not.

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Speaker 8: A lot remains to be seen, mindful of the fact

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Speaker 8: that he was almost never seen in public before. But

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Speaker 8: if it is so that he is more hardlined, and

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Speaker 8: I think, unfortunately the regime is going to go in

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Speaker 8: a much more hardline direction now since they're in a

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Speaker 8: war situation, it just further shows that these type of escalations, conflict, etc.

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Speaker 8: Is exactly the opposite of what you want, if your

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Speaker 8: desire actually is to move Iran in a much more

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Speaker 8: open minded and liberal direction. We're seeing the clear opposite

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Speaker 8: taking place in front of our eyes, in which they

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Speaker 8: just selected a person who simpleism is to show defiance

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Speaker 8: against the United States and anyone who wants to see

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Speaker 8: reform take place inside of Iran.

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Speaker 2: What does the selection mean for the likelihood that Iran

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Speaker 2: would actually pursue a nuclear weapon.

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Speaker 8: Well, we have a scenario which the fatwa of the

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Speaker 8: Supreme Leader is now essentially gone with the Supreme Leader.

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Speaker 8: That is the main interpretation of these fatwas is that

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Speaker 8: they only last as long as the Supreme the Ayatola

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Speaker 8: who issued them is alive, and then they need to

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Speaker 8: be reissued by someone else. I mean, I don't think

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Speaker 8: it will be particularly early in his agenda to reissue it,

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Speaker 8: and there may be a from amount of pressure on

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Speaker 8: him not to do so because I think, you know,

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Speaker 8: the shift in mood in Iran.

443
00:20:06,440 --> 00:20:07,679
Speaker 9: Is very very clear.

444
00:20:08,000 --> 00:20:11,080
Speaker 8: There's a lot of argumentation that this was a mistake

445
00:20:11,160 --> 00:20:13,680
Speaker 8: for them not to build it. I don't necessarily think

446
00:20:13,680 --> 00:20:16,840
Speaker 8: that the capacity to do so without being de ticted,

447
00:20:16,920 --> 00:20:19,560
Speaker 8: et cetera, et cetera really was there. But I think

448
00:20:19,560 --> 00:20:22,639
Speaker 8: there's a strong view in many quarters in Iran that

449
00:20:22,960 --> 00:20:26,520
Speaker 8: the previous Supreme Leader simply wasn't decisive enough to go

450
00:20:26,640 --> 00:20:29,440
Speaker 8: in either direction. He didn't build a bomb, and at

451
00:20:29,440 --> 00:20:31,359
Speaker 8: the same time, he was not willing to do the

452
00:20:31,440 --> 00:20:34,840
Speaker 8: kind of full scale engagement with the United States to

453
00:20:34,840 --> 00:20:38,120
Speaker 8: get a deal done because he kept on refusing allowing

454
00:20:38,160 --> 00:20:41,439
Speaker 8: any Iranian officials to directly speak to Trump, which I

455
00:20:41,440 --> 00:20:44,280
Speaker 8: think was a mistake that is now, all you know,

456
00:20:44,760 --> 00:20:48,480
Speaker 8: extremely unlikely to happen. I fear very much that the

457
00:20:48,520 --> 00:20:53,800
Speaker 8: selection of Harmony Sun now means that any exit ramp

458
00:20:54,160 --> 00:20:59,960
Speaker 8: that potentially was available is even more difficult to materialize.

459
00:21:00,080 --> 00:21:00,240
Speaker 9: Now.

460
00:21:00,280 --> 00:21:05,960
Speaker 8: Trump could potentially just choose to the clear victory walk

461
00:21:06,000 --> 00:21:08,439
Speaker 8: away and say, look, I killed the Supreme Leader, I

462
00:21:08,480 --> 00:21:11,159
Speaker 8: destroyed so much of their nuclear program, so much of

463
00:21:11,160 --> 00:21:14,399
Speaker 8: their missile program. The country has been set back ten years,

464
00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:17,119
Speaker 8: he said, and just declear victory and leave it. I

465
00:21:17,160 --> 00:21:19,800
Speaker 8: don't think it would end there, because from the standpoint

466
00:21:19,840 --> 00:21:23,680
Speaker 8: of the ivunience, if that were to happen, they would

467
00:21:23,720 --> 00:21:25,919
Speaker 8: actually be in a much worse situation compared to the

468
00:21:25,960 --> 00:21:28,919
Speaker 8: beginning of the war, because the country is destroyed. They

469
00:21:28,920 --> 00:21:32,520
Speaker 8: can hardly export any oil, they can't get any cash,

470
00:21:32,680 --> 00:21:34,320
Speaker 8: and no one's going to come in from the outside

471
00:21:34,359 --> 00:21:37,399
Speaker 8: to rebuild the country, and their pathway toward Centcrius relief

472
00:21:37,440 --> 00:21:40,680
Speaker 8: is essentially blown up. So I don't think that's an

473
00:21:40,720 --> 00:21:43,760
Speaker 8: acceptable situation for them. I suspect that they actually would

474
00:21:43,760 --> 00:21:46,760
Speaker 8: continue the war even if Trump pulls out. They would

475
00:21:46,760 --> 00:21:49,480
Speaker 8: continue to target GCC states, they would continue.

476
00:21:49,160 --> 00:21:50,040
Speaker 9: To target Israel.

477
00:21:50,520 --> 00:21:52,719
Speaker 8: I think they're going to fight until they get an

478
00:21:52,800 --> 00:21:55,800
Speaker 8: outcome that they believe also puts them not necessarily in

479
00:21:55,880 --> 00:21:59,360
Speaker 8: a better position, but in one in which their prospects

480
00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:02,159
Speaker 8: of getting to better position is great, and meaning that

481
00:22:02,200 --> 00:22:05,560
Speaker 8: there is some sort of an arrangement indirectly or directly

482
00:22:05,600 --> 00:22:08,240
Speaker 8: with the United States, when some sanctions relief, the country

483
00:22:08,280 --> 00:22:11,440
Speaker 8: can be built up again, they can sell their order, etc.

484
00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:15,120
Speaker 8: And that at this point they've lost so much they

485
00:22:15,119 --> 00:22:18,040
Speaker 8: have nothing to lose to go even further, and trying

486
00:22:18,080 --> 00:22:20,439
Speaker 8: to make sure that they use their last resources in

487
00:22:20,480 --> 00:22:22,840
Speaker 8: order to be able to turn the tables around, which

488
00:22:22,880 --> 00:22:25,400
Speaker 8: is kind of the same situation Trump isn't. I think

489
00:22:25,440 --> 00:22:28,359
Speaker 8: he realizes that this was a huge mistake. He's lost

490
00:22:28,400 --> 00:22:31,400
Speaker 8: and he's not desperately trying to turn the tables, turn

491
00:22:31,480 --> 00:22:36,479
Speaker 8: this failure into a victory before the market crashes and

492
00:22:36,560 --> 00:22:39,560
Speaker 8: his own base turns against this war. His own base

493
00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:41,840
Speaker 8: has not quite yet turned against the war, at least

494
00:22:41,880 --> 00:22:44,240
Speaker 8: not in a very forceful way. So I think he

495
00:22:44,320 --> 00:22:46,920
Speaker 8: thinks he still has some time, and he's throwing everything

496
00:22:46,960 --> 00:22:49,399
Speaker 8: at the Vonians in the hope of turning this defeat

497
00:22:49,400 --> 00:22:50,119
Speaker 8: into a victory.

498
00:22:50,280 --> 00:22:51,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, very good point.

499
00:22:51,440 --> 00:22:53,679
Speaker 3: Now, we did originally want to talk to you about

500
00:22:53,720 --> 00:22:57,600
Speaker 3: some of this failed diplomacy and potential offerances you're talking about.

501
00:22:57,680 --> 00:22:59,680
Speaker 3: Let's put this up here on the screen. It all

502
00:22:59,760 --> 00:23:03,680
Speaker 3: kicked off with a very interesting statement over the weekend

503
00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:07,760
Speaker 3: where the Iranian Interim Leadership Council approved that neighboring countries

504
00:23:07,800 --> 00:23:11,080
Speaker 3: would no longer be attacked unless an attack on Iran

505
00:23:11,240 --> 00:23:15,080
Speaker 3: originated from them. This was seen as a potential off

506
00:23:15,200 --> 00:23:17,960
Speaker 3: ramp where they said, look, you don't use bases to

507
00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:21,560
Speaker 3: attack us, that we won't attack you. However, Trump immediately

508
00:23:21,600 --> 00:23:23,720
Speaker 3: then came out and let's go to the next one, guys,

509
00:23:23,880 --> 00:23:26,400
Speaker 3: where he said Iran, which is being beat to hell,

510
00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:30,000
Speaker 3: has apologized and surrendered to its Middle Eastern neighbors, promised

511
00:23:30,000 --> 00:23:32,120
Speaker 3: they won't shoot at them anymore. The promise was made

512
00:23:32,160 --> 00:23:35,439
Speaker 3: only because of an Israeli attack. Your analysis is that

513
00:23:35,560 --> 00:23:39,520
Speaker 3: his immediate shootdown of that potential off ramp immediately actually

514
00:23:39,560 --> 00:23:41,080
Speaker 3: re escalated the situation.

515
00:23:41,119 --> 00:23:41,960
Speaker 1: Can you get into it.

516
00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:45,639
Speaker 8: Yeah, So there was very sense that negotiations taking place

517
00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:49,600
Speaker 8: initiated by regional states, the Iranians had come to an

518
00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:52,480
Speaker 8: agreement with them that there would be a movement towards

519
00:23:52,800 --> 00:23:57,080
Speaker 8: not targeting them unless actually their sword was used for attacks,

520
00:23:57,080 --> 00:23:58,399
Speaker 8: and in some cases they happened.

521
00:23:59,440 --> 00:24:02,440
Speaker 9: This started often with this video.

522
00:24:02,200 --> 00:24:05,560
Speaker 8: Message by Posiskion in which he actually went further than

523
00:24:05,560 --> 00:24:07,800
Speaker 8: what had been agreed upon within the Iranian system. He

524
00:24:07,880 --> 00:24:11,080
Speaker 8: issued a personal apology, which of course took all the headlines.

525
00:24:11,480 --> 00:24:15,720
Speaker 8: This actually generated a tremendous amount of anger within the

526
00:24:15,760 --> 00:24:17,879
Speaker 8: Iranian system against him, and he came out and kind

527
00:24:17,920 --> 00:24:21,520
Speaker 8: of retracted it and said that he was misunderstood. But

528
00:24:21,800 --> 00:24:23,840
Speaker 8: and the next step was then for some of these

529
00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:27,399
Speaker 8: GCC states to observe what happens. Well, the Iranians actually

530
00:24:27,440 --> 00:24:30,080
Speaker 8: implement that and then issued their own state. Then they

531
00:24:30,119 --> 00:24:33,480
Speaker 8: would take a couple of hours in between. Trump comes

532
00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:35,560
Speaker 8: with this truth social and as you see there he

533
00:24:35,680 --> 00:24:38,119
Speaker 8: insults Iran, he humiliates Iran, and then he says that

534
00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:41,159
Speaker 8: Yvon will be hit very hard today. And only a

535
00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:44,520
Speaker 8: short period after that, the United States hit the desalination

536
00:24:44,800 --> 00:24:49,200
Speaker 8: planned in Veshma Island, which is a major, major escalation.

537
00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:53,040
Speaker 8: It's also a violation of Article fifty four of the

538
00:24:53,119 --> 00:24:58,879
Speaker 8: Geneva Conventions Protocol one. So immediately after that, the Irani

539
00:24:58,960 --> 00:25:02,159
Speaker 8: started pounding g SEC states as well as Israel, and

540
00:25:02,200 --> 00:25:03,720
Speaker 8: this whole thing just fell apart.

541
00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:05,720
Speaker 9: Now it is not entirely clear to me.

542
00:25:05,800 --> 00:25:07,399
Speaker 8: I've not been able to get to the bottom of

543
00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:10,879
Speaker 8: this as to whether Trump did this deliberately because he

544
00:25:10,960 --> 00:25:15,480
Speaker 8: wanted to sabotage that mediation effort, or whether this was

545
00:25:15,520 --> 00:25:19,280
Speaker 8: something that essentially further reflects that the US government is

546
00:25:19,280 --> 00:25:22,560
Speaker 8: somewhat in this array. That the GCC states had informed

547
00:25:22,600 --> 00:25:24,960
Speaker 8: the US of this deal, informed them of the status

548
00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:28,320
Speaker 8: of these negotiations, but Trump was not in the loop

549
00:25:28,480 --> 00:25:32,199
Speaker 8: or didn't care, didn't understand that. Him coming out and

550
00:25:32,320 --> 00:25:34,520
Speaker 8: issuing this tweet and going forward with this attack with

551
00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:39,040
Speaker 8: completely destroy matters. But this is what happened, and the

552
00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:42,200
Speaker 8: fact is that this diplomacy collapsed. Now, I do believe

553
00:25:42,200 --> 00:25:44,280
Speaker 8: that there's some other efforts being made right now to

554
00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:49,080
Speaker 8: resurrect it. But it tells you how delicate the situation

555
00:25:49,359 --> 00:25:53,119
Speaker 8: is and how problematic it is if the United States

556
00:25:53,200 --> 00:25:54,880
Speaker 8: is really just improvising this.

557
00:25:54,800 --> 00:25:55,520
Speaker 9: War at this point.

558
00:25:55,760 --> 00:25:59,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, and then Israel, of course directly interested in broadening

559
00:25:59,280 --> 00:26:02,159
Speaker 2: this war as much as they possibly can and seeming to.

560
00:26:02,200 --> 00:26:04,320
Speaker 2: We just talked about how they were blaming the UAE

561
00:26:04,480 --> 00:26:08,280
Speaker 2: for this during strike on the desalination plant in Iran,

562
00:26:08,359 --> 00:26:10,960
Speaker 2: Yua saying that is not true at all. But you

563
00:26:10,960 --> 00:26:12,720
Speaker 2: can see the incentives there of Israel, And we could

564
00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:15,680
Speaker 2: put D four up on the screen. This is one

565
00:26:15,680 --> 00:26:18,960
Speaker 2: of the strikes that happened from Iran shortly after this

566
00:26:19,640 --> 00:26:23,600
Speaker 2: attempted diplomacy fell apart. That is Dubai International Airport. That

567
00:26:23,680 --> 00:26:25,240
Speaker 2: is I mean, I'm sure all three of us have

568
00:26:25,320 --> 00:26:27,080
Speaker 2: been there multiple times.

569
00:26:27,160 --> 00:26:29,240
Speaker 1: That was a jet fuel hangar too.

570
00:26:29,240 --> 00:26:32,679
Speaker 2: And yeah, to see this is pretty astonishing, busiest airport

571
00:26:32,680 --> 00:26:35,520
Speaker 2: in the world, at least it was. And meanwhile, on

572
00:26:35,560 --> 00:26:38,280
Speaker 2: the escalation frontlet's put D five up on the screen.

573
00:26:38,400 --> 00:26:41,000
Speaker 2: US is deploying yet another so this will be the

574
00:26:41,040 --> 00:26:43,160
Speaker 2: third one carrier strike.

575
00:26:42,920 --> 00:26:44,959
Speaker 7: Group to the Middle East.

576
00:26:45,400 --> 00:26:48,760
Speaker 2: Just an extraordinary amount of firepower being amassed in the region,

577
00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:51,280
Speaker 2: So it looks like this thing is only going in

578
00:26:51,320 --> 00:26:53,879
Speaker 2: one direction and it is not towards an off ramp.

579
00:26:54,240 --> 00:26:54,800
Speaker 9: Sotinly true.

580
00:26:54,800 --> 00:26:57,960
Speaker 8: And I think what you said about there Isel's constant

581
00:26:58,000 --> 00:27:01,680
Speaker 8: messaging that this was done by Bahre nobody ue has

582
00:27:01,840 --> 00:27:06,600
Speaker 8: infuriated these states because it's so clear the Israelis want

583
00:27:06,640 --> 00:27:11,080
Speaker 8: these GCC states to fully enter this war because not

584
00:27:11,200 --> 00:27:14,760
Speaker 8: that that makes a huge military difference, but because it

585
00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:19,199
Speaker 8: further ruins Iran GCC relations for decades to come. What

586
00:27:19,240 --> 00:27:21,760
Speaker 8: the Iranians are doing already now, it's going to create

587
00:27:21,760 --> 00:27:24,840
Speaker 8: a tremendous amount of problems between the GCC and Iran

588
00:27:24,920 --> 00:27:29,359
Speaker 8: going forward. There's a lot of anger obviously against the Iranians

589
00:27:29,359 --> 00:27:32,680
Speaker 8: and the GCC, particularly among six states that went out

590
00:27:32,720 --> 00:27:34,720
Speaker 8: of their way to make sure that this war was

591
00:27:34,760 --> 00:27:37,760
Speaker 8: prevented and there still trying to stop it. But what

592
00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:39,840
Speaker 8: the Israelis are doing is that they're trying to get

593
00:27:39,920 --> 00:27:42,639
Speaker 8: everyone directly involved in this conflict in order to make

594
00:27:42,680 --> 00:27:45,480
Speaker 8: sure that even once this is over, Iran's relations with

595
00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:47,359
Speaker 8: these states are going to be in a terrible state

596
00:27:47,680 --> 00:27:51,040
Speaker 8: for decades to come. We also have if I could

597
00:27:51,080 --> 00:27:53,200
Speaker 8: just add one thing, as much as we're talking about

598
00:27:53,240 --> 00:27:55,760
Speaker 8: like this war is you know, Trump is improvising it.

599
00:27:55,840 --> 00:27:58,120
Speaker 8: He's lost control. I think we have to be clear

600
00:27:58,160 --> 00:28:02,440
Speaker 8: that from the Israeli standpoint, this is a splendid success.

601
00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:06,119
Speaker 8: It doesn't matter to them if it's much Tabo or

602
00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:08,440
Speaker 8: it's Hassan or whoever it is that becomes the next

603
00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:11,040
Speaker 8: Supreme leader. None of these things are important. What's important

604
00:28:11,080 --> 00:28:14,040
Speaker 8: for them is that the country is being bombed to smithers,

605
00:28:14,440 --> 00:28:17,879
Speaker 8: that their power is being set back decades, that the

606
00:28:17,960 --> 00:28:20,959
Speaker 8: balance is going to be shifting in Israel's direction at

607
00:28:21,000 --> 00:28:24,400
Speaker 8: the end of this Regardless of exactly how it ends politically,

608
00:28:24,640 --> 00:28:28,560
Speaker 8: the way it ends militarily is that Evan's resources are

609
00:28:28,560 --> 00:28:31,840
Speaker 8: not really being drained in its military capabilities are even

610
00:28:31,880 --> 00:28:34,560
Speaker 8: though they may, I don't think they will at all surrender,

611
00:28:34,640 --> 00:28:37,520
Speaker 8: Even if that is not a surrender that it ends with. Militarily,

612
00:28:37,560 --> 00:28:40,640
Speaker 8: their capabilities will be set back dramatically, and that shifts

613
00:28:40,640 --> 00:28:43,680
Speaker 8: the balance of power in Israel's direction, which is exactly

614
00:28:43,720 --> 00:28:44,600
Speaker 8: what they're looking for.

615
00:28:44,720 --> 00:28:46,600
Speaker 9: It just so happens to be that the United States

616
00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:47,480
Speaker 9: is paying for all of it.

617
00:28:47,720 --> 00:28:49,720
Speaker 3: Right, They don't care at all about a stabile right

618
00:28:49,720 --> 00:28:51,680
Speaker 3: in fact, they don't want Iran to be stable. They

619
00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:53,920
Speaker 3: don't even care about American gas prices, they don't care

620
00:28:53,920 --> 00:28:57,400
Speaker 3: about American lives. They care least about the GCC countries.

621
00:28:57,400 --> 00:28:59,920
Speaker 3: We're the only ones that have any interest. Oh, Asian

622
00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:02,480
Speaker 3: markets are tumbling, boohoo. You know they could care less.

623
00:29:02,720 --> 00:29:04,760
Speaker 3: One of the things we've also seen, though, is the

624
00:29:04,880 --> 00:29:08,840
Speaker 3: explosion of civil conflict in Iraq. Let's go ahead and

625
00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:12,400
Speaker 3: put D six up here on the screen where we've

626
00:29:12,440 --> 00:29:15,680
Speaker 3: seen Iraqi resistance units who are in direct contact. This

627
00:29:15,840 --> 00:29:18,959
Speaker 3: was a claim with US forces. Hasn't been exactly confirmed,

628
00:29:18,960 --> 00:29:20,800
Speaker 3: but we definitely know that there's a lot of stuff

629
00:29:20,920 --> 00:29:24,680
Speaker 3: going on in and around Iraq where there's been significant consternation.

630
00:29:25,080 --> 00:29:27,600
Speaker 1: What is the possibility You've talked about.

631
00:29:27,360 --> 00:29:30,440
Speaker 3: This on the show before, about resistance in Bahrain with

632
00:29:30,480 --> 00:29:33,760
Speaker 3: the Shia population in Iraq, attacks potentially there and a

633
00:29:33,800 --> 00:29:37,440
Speaker 3: broadening of some sort of like Arab Spring style uprising

634
00:29:37,520 --> 00:29:39,560
Speaker 3: in the middle of all this conflict if it continues

635
00:29:39,600 --> 00:29:40,080
Speaker 3: to blast.

636
00:29:40,840 --> 00:29:44,040
Speaker 8: We don't know quite yet exactly how strong the Iranian

637
00:29:44,800 --> 00:29:48,440
Speaker 8: intelligence capabilities are. I mean, clearly they have capabilities, but

638
00:29:48,480 --> 00:29:52,360
Speaker 8: their ability to actually ferment them unrest or support it

639
00:29:52,920 --> 00:29:55,720
Speaker 8: in Saudi Arabia and the eastern provinces, or in Bayhra,

640
00:29:55,800 --> 00:30:00,160
Speaker 8: and we've already seen some sporadic spontaneous protests, particularly by

641
00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:03,920
Speaker 8: her in early on, So that is an unknown, but

642
00:30:03,960 --> 00:30:07,200
Speaker 8: we definitely know that in Iraq there are plenty of

643
00:30:07,400 --> 00:30:10,280
Speaker 8: armed militias that are still quite loyal to Iran.

644
00:30:10,480 --> 00:30:11,640
Speaker 9: They believe that.

645
00:30:12,920 --> 00:30:15,520
Speaker 8: Particularly if the curves were to go in, I think

646
00:30:15,560 --> 00:30:19,160
Speaker 8: that definitely would have activated these other Iraqi militias against this,

647
00:30:19,560 --> 00:30:21,880
Speaker 8: and all of Iraq would have been once again being thrown

648
00:30:21,880 --> 00:30:24,479
Speaker 8: into some form of a civil war. So you know,

649
00:30:24,720 --> 00:30:27,560
Speaker 8: the idea that this would be quick, that this would

650
00:30:27,600 --> 00:30:30,680
Speaker 8: just entail Iran, all of that was disproven within the

651
00:30:30,680 --> 00:30:33,040
Speaker 8: first forty eight hours. But it can still get much

652
00:30:33,120 --> 00:30:36,440
Speaker 8: much worse than what we already have seen, particularly if

653
00:30:36,480 --> 00:30:39,200
Speaker 8: those groups are activated. We're already seen that there's open

654
00:30:39,240 --> 00:30:42,560
Speaker 8: fighting now between Hezbela and Lebanon, and of course the

655
00:30:42,640 --> 00:30:46,440
Speaker 8: Houtis are still sitting tight, whether they're sitting tight as

656
00:30:46,520 --> 00:30:49,040
Speaker 8: a warning to Saudi Arabia not to enter the war

657
00:30:49,080 --> 00:30:51,560
Speaker 8: and they would only go in if the Saudis going,

658
00:30:52,320 --> 00:30:55,880
Speaker 8: or whether they're waiting for a moment in which the

659
00:30:56,560 --> 00:30:59,560
Speaker 8: chalkpoint in the Strait of Hormos is becoming really really high,

660
00:30:59,560 --> 00:31:02,760
Speaker 8: and then add another problem to it by closing down

661
00:31:02,760 --> 00:31:05,240
Speaker 8: the Red Sea again, which would really just be devastating

662
00:31:05,280 --> 00:31:08,000
Speaker 8: to the entire global economy. It doesn't remain clear to

663
00:31:08,040 --> 00:31:10,520
Speaker 8: me exactly what the strategy is, but I think it's

664
00:31:10,640 --> 00:31:12,920
Speaker 8: very interesting that so far they've been sitting time. But

665
00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:15,520
Speaker 8: I don't think that that is because they don't have

666
00:31:15,600 --> 00:31:17,960
Speaker 8: the capability or the willingness to get in. It seems

667
00:31:18,000 --> 00:31:21,479
Speaker 8: to be a much more complex calculation that they have

668
00:31:21,600 --> 00:31:23,720
Speaker 8: that is all about timing rather than willingness.

669
00:31:23,840 --> 00:31:25,160
Speaker 7: I agree, Leslie.

670
00:31:25,200 --> 00:31:26,960
Speaker 2: Let's put this piece of news up on the screen.

671
00:31:27,040 --> 00:31:30,520
Speaker 2: Saudi American diplomats in Saudi Arabia have been ordered to

672
00:31:30,960 --> 00:31:34,520
Speaker 2: leave State Department side to order diplomats to go. Order

673
00:31:34,560 --> 00:31:37,520
Speaker 2: departure of US employees and the Kingdom indicates senior diplomats

674
00:31:37,560 --> 00:31:40,440
Speaker 2: are bracing for possible search in violence in the war

675
00:31:40,640 --> 00:31:41,280
Speaker 2: with Iran.

676
00:31:41,480 --> 00:31:42,800
Speaker 7: What do you make of this development?

677
00:31:43,280 --> 00:31:44,160
Speaker 9: It shows that.

678
00:31:44,080 --> 00:31:46,480
Speaker 8: At this point the Iranians are the ones that are

679
00:31:46,520 --> 00:31:50,200
Speaker 8: determining the geography of this war. They have already been

680
00:31:50,240 --> 00:31:54,440
Speaker 8: able to hit major CIA stations inside of some of

681
00:31:54,480 --> 00:31:58,360
Speaker 8: the GCC states. They have also then later on identified

682
00:31:58,440 --> 00:32:03,720
Speaker 8: where those CIA personnel moved and they hit those places.

683
00:32:04,200 --> 00:32:07,520
Speaker 8: So their ability to strike, particularly with these drones that

684
00:32:07,560 --> 00:32:10,440
Speaker 8: are not being picked up by the air defense systems

685
00:32:10,440 --> 00:32:13,000
Speaker 8: in the same way precisely because they're moving so slowly.

686
00:32:13,560 --> 00:32:14,200
Speaker 9: If they were.

687
00:32:14,040 --> 00:32:17,320
Speaker 8: Moving faster, they actually would have been detected, has given

688
00:32:17,360 --> 00:32:21,320
Speaker 8: the Iranians a significant benefit. Saudi Arabia and the GCC

689
00:32:21,440 --> 00:32:24,800
Speaker 8: states are not asking Ukraine for help because the Ukrainians

690
00:32:24,840 --> 00:32:27,080
Speaker 8: have now four years of experienced dealing with some of

691
00:32:27,120 --> 00:32:30,920
Speaker 8: these drones that the Iranians are using. So we're seeing

692
00:32:30,960 --> 00:32:34,560
Speaker 8: I mean, this war is just expanding, it is providing

693
00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:37,280
Speaker 8: a tremendous amount of cost. But I do think that

694
00:32:37,320 --> 00:32:41,880
Speaker 8: the Trump administration has managed to keep the cost of

695
00:32:41,920 --> 00:32:45,640
Speaker 8: this war rather hidden from the American public, not just

696
00:32:45,680 --> 00:32:48,480
Speaker 8: in terms of the tremendous amount of money that is

697
00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:52,080
Speaker 8: being spent, but also the tremendous amount of facilities that

698
00:32:52,120 --> 00:32:57,680
Speaker 8: are being destroyed. We're talking about some fad radar detectors

699
00:32:57,680 --> 00:32:59,800
Speaker 8: that cost up to one billion dollars that have been

700
00:32:59,800 --> 00:33:02,760
Speaker 8: this Jordan will take years to rebuild. But also do

701
00:33:02,920 --> 00:33:05,720
Speaker 8: note that the administration is not saying a word about

702
00:33:05,720 --> 00:33:08,760
Speaker 8: the number of casualties. You have mentioned the number of dead,

703
00:33:09,240 --> 00:33:10,600
Speaker 8: not the number of casualties.

704
00:33:10,680 --> 00:33:13,160
Speaker 3: Yes, yeah, great point, and all I mean not to mention.

705
00:33:13,360 --> 00:33:17,760
Speaker 3: Even every day I read about some Pakistani laborer who

706
00:33:17,880 --> 00:33:22,240
Speaker 3: got killed, or heard multiple people in Bahrain and Kuwait.

707
00:33:22,320 --> 00:33:25,320
Speaker 3: I mean there's a lot of civilians who've been caught up,

708
00:33:25,440 --> 00:33:29,200
Speaker 3: and then that in Tehran. God only knows the number

709
00:33:29,200 --> 00:33:32,040
Speaker 3: of people who've been killed, probably in the thousands at

710
00:33:32,040 --> 00:33:32,320
Speaker 3: this point.

711
00:33:32,320 --> 00:33:35,080
Speaker 1: Absolutely such a disaster. Thank you very much, sir. I'm

712
00:33:35,080 --> 00:33:35,960
Speaker 1: sure we'll see you again.

713
00:33:36,480 --> 00:33:37,719
Speaker 9: Thank you so much for having me.

714
00:33:40,880 --> 00:33:43,640
Speaker 2: So we wanted to ask in this show just how

715
00:33:43,680 --> 00:33:46,520
Speaker 2: bad are things and just how bad could things get.

716
00:33:46,560 --> 00:33:49,080
Speaker 2: Professor Jeffrey Sachs, who you know we've had on this

717
00:33:49,120 --> 00:33:51,520
Speaker 2: program a number of times, was speaking to Glenn Deeson

718
00:33:51,560 --> 00:33:54,160
Speaker 2: over on his YouTube program, and he said that he

719
00:33:54,240 --> 00:33:57,320
Speaker 2: believes we are already in the early stages of World

720
00:33:57,400 --> 00:33:57,800
Speaker 2: War three.

721
00:33:57,960 --> 00:33:59,080
Speaker 7: Let's go ahead and take a listen to.

722
00:33:59,000 --> 00:34:04,560
Speaker 10: That is Real is a crazy rogue state with the

723
00:34:04,920 --> 00:34:09,480
Speaker 10: half its political leadership in the mindset of the fifth

724
00:34:09,480 --> 00:34:18,440
Speaker 10: century BC reading some text from King Josiah.

725
00:34:16,600 --> 00:34:16,839
Speaker 2: And.

726
00:34:18,360 --> 00:34:25,080
Speaker 10: There Israel has just plunged the world into probably the

727
00:34:25,120 --> 00:34:30,080
Speaker 10: third World war, but into a phenomenal economic crisis. This

728
00:34:30,200 --> 00:34:36,719
Speaker 10: is the timing. The instigation is Israel's. The fact that

729
00:34:36,760 --> 00:34:39,560
Speaker 10: the US goes along with it is because it's completely

730
00:34:39,600 --> 00:34:45,040
Speaker 10: coherent with the US hegemonic project. But this is Israel

731
00:34:46,600 --> 00:34:51,640
Speaker 10: complete madness, and because of the whold of the Israel

732
00:34:51,680 --> 00:34:56,880
Speaker 10: lobby in the United States, that madness isn't even examined.

733
00:34:57,360 --> 00:34:59,279
Speaker 2: I don't want to be alarmist, but I also want

734
00:34:59,280 --> 00:35:01,719
Speaker 2: to be clear eye about where we are and where

735
00:35:01,760 --> 00:35:04,120
Speaker 2: this could go. And already we have we can put

736
00:35:04,160 --> 00:35:06,920
Speaker 2: the next piece up on the screen. We have reports

737
00:35:06,960 --> 00:35:11,200
Speaker 2: that Russia is providing Aroun with intel, which makes perfect

738
00:35:11,280 --> 00:35:14,000
Speaker 2: sense about the locations and movements of American troop ships

739
00:35:14,000 --> 00:35:17,400
Speaker 2: and aircraft, according to multiple people familiar with US intelligence

740
00:35:17,400 --> 00:35:19,920
Speaker 2: reporting on the issue. In the same way we viewed

741
00:35:20,120 --> 00:35:23,760
Speaker 2: Russia's invasion of Ukraine as an opportunity, Hey, let's get involved,

742
00:35:23,840 --> 00:35:25,960
Speaker 2: Let's do a proxy war. Maybe we can hurt Russia,

743
00:35:26,000 --> 00:35:28,759
Speaker 2: maybe we can degrade their capability. They are viewing this

744
00:35:29,000 --> 00:35:33,640
Speaker 2: as a similar opportunity. In addition, US also has intelligence

745
00:35:33,640 --> 00:35:36,120
Speaker 2: suggesting I'm reading from the CNN report that China may

746
00:35:36,160 --> 00:35:39,880
Speaker 2: be preparing to provide Iran with financial assistance, spare parts

747
00:35:39,880 --> 00:35:42,439
Speaker 2: and missile components. Three people familiar with the matter said,

748
00:35:42,480 --> 00:35:45,120
Speaker 2: though Beijing has stayed out of the war up until now,

749
00:35:45,320 --> 00:35:48,000
Speaker 2: China relies heavily on Irani and oil, and has reportedly

750
00:35:48,000 --> 00:35:50,839
Speaker 2: been pressuring Tehran to allow safe passage for vessels through

751
00:35:50,840 --> 00:35:54,520
Speaker 2: the straight over moves. So we have directly impacted their

752
00:35:54,600 --> 00:35:57,439
Speaker 2: interests in terms of their energy landscape. Although I don't

753
00:35:57,440 --> 00:36:00,440
Speaker 2: want to overstate that, because China I think some ten

754
00:36:00,480 --> 00:36:04,799
Speaker 2: to fifteen percent of their oil comes from Iran, so

755
00:36:05,200 --> 00:36:07,279
Speaker 2: you know, it's not great for them, but it's not

756
00:36:07,360 --> 00:36:10,000
Speaker 2: a total incomplete disaster the way that it has been portrayed.

757
00:36:10,000 --> 00:36:11,319
Speaker 2: I mean, the people who are arguing, a, oh, this

758
00:36:11,360 --> 00:36:13,879
Speaker 2: is all about hurting China. This is all about hurting China.

759
00:36:13,960 --> 00:36:16,799
Speaker 2: The math doesn't really math when you consider that the

760
00:36:16,880 --> 00:36:18,840
Speaker 2: country that is being you know, one of the countries

761
00:36:18,880 --> 00:36:21,000
Speaker 2: that is being hardest hit by this is US, their

762
00:36:21,040 --> 00:36:24,600
Speaker 2: geopolitical rival. So when you look at that, when you

763
00:36:24,640 --> 00:36:26,800
Speaker 2: look at the fact we're already in this proxy conflict

764
00:36:26,800 --> 00:36:29,279
Speaker 2: in Ukraine with Russia, when you look at you know,

765
00:36:29,360 --> 00:36:31,759
Speaker 2: you've got a proxy conflict going on in Sudan as well.

766
00:36:32,120 --> 00:36:36,239
Speaker 2: Obviously we're you know in our own hemisphere, Venezuela, you know,

767
00:36:36,560 --> 00:36:40,399
Speaker 2: kidnapping Maduro and quote unquote taking over there. Now we're

768
00:36:40,520 --> 00:36:44,560
Speaker 2: belligerently threatening Cuba as well. It does have some of

769
00:36:44,600 --> 00:36:49,000
Speaker 2: the ingredients, and especially with the uncontrolled escalation spiral that

770
00:36:49,040 --> 00:36:52,279
Speaker 2: we're already in, it does have some of the ingredients

771
00:36:52,400 --> 00:36:55,279
Speaker 2: of a broader conflagration, especially when you add on the

772
00:36:55,280 --> 00:36:57,640
Speaker 2: table the possibility of deployment of nuclear weapons, which I

773
00:36:57,640 --> 00:36:59,080
Speaker 2: don't think either one of us can rule out.

774
00:36:59,120 --> 00:37:01,440
Speaker 3: I mean, I wouldn't put it's zero, which is scary enough.

775
00:37:01,800 --> 00:37:03,440
Speaker 3: I don't know what five what are you at? I'm

776
00:37:03,480 --> 00:37:05,600
Speaker 3: at like three percent, which is I mean, it's too high.

777
00:37:05,920 --> 00:37:08,160
Speaker 7: World War three, okay, but.

778
00:37:08,360 --> 00:37:09,880
Speaker 1: Let's talk about the whole World War thing.

779
00:37:10,000 --> 00:37:13,080
Speaker 3: So even when people say world War three, the expectation

780
00:37:13,160 --> 00:37:14,840
Speaker 3: of World War three is just going to look like

781
00:37:14,840 --> 00:37:15,520
Speaker 3: World War two.

782
00:37:15,560 --> 00:37:18,280
Speaker 1: World World War two looked nothing like World War One, okay.

783
00:37:18,480 --> 00:37:21,080
Speaker 3: So the idea that the new frontier of battle is

784
00:37:21,080 --> 00:37:24,280
Speaker 3: going to look exactly like some carbon copy of something

785
00:37:24,280 --> 00:37:27,080
Speaker 3: that happened eighty years ago is preposterous. It is going

786
00:37:27,080 --> 00:37:29,920
Speaker 3: to look actually exactly like it does right now. You

787
00:37:30,000 --> 00:37:34,800
Speaker 3: and I consider the Ukraine War to be a proxy conflict. Yes, well, okay,

788
00:37:34,880 --> 00:37:38,080
Speaker 3: that is a global conflict because all of NATO, the

789
00:37:38,200 --> 00:37:42,359
Speaker 3: United States sanctions, the entire economic system, all of these

790
00:37:42,480 --> 00:37:45,239
Speaker 3: US institutions which were designed post World War Two were

791
00:37:45,320 --> 00:37:48,600
Speaker 3: leveraged against Russia. That literally, to me is basically warfare.

792
00:37:48,719 --> 00:37:50,400
Speaker 3: You could call it what you want, whether the US

793
00:37:50,440 --> 00:37:52,759
Speaker 3: boots are on the ground, if Russians are providing intelligence,

794
00:37:52,840 --> 00:37:55,000
Speaker 3: it's the same thing. Also, who are we to complain

795
00:37:55,200 --> 00:37:57,680
Speaker 3: how many times do we do battle damage assessments and

796
00:37:58,000 --> 00:38:00,239
Speaker 3: we do more for the Ukrainians of the Russians done

797
00:38:00,280 --> 00:38:02,719
Speaker 3: for Tehran so far, and now we're complaining.

798
00:38:03,040 --> 00:38:04,040
Speaker 1: Good luck selling that.

799
00:38:04,160 --> 00:38:08,840
Speaker 2: I'm club No consider you know, all of the weapons

800
00:38:09,280 --> 00:38:14,319
Speaker 2: and intelligence, intelligence training for years.

801
00:38:13,960 --> 00:38:16,520
Speaker 7: And years and exactly so that we.

802
00:38:16,480 --> 00:38:20,040
Speaker 3: Folk think about, I mean, yeah, exactly like not to

803
00:38:20,080 --> 00:38:22,360
Speaker 3: turn it into a Ukraine thing, but that already was

804
00:38:22,360 --> 00:38:25,120
Speaker 3: a proxy conflict. This is a proxy conflict now, but

805
00:38:25,360 --> 00:38:27,520
Speaker 3: it's got a long history in the post World War

806
00:38:27,600 --> 00:38:30,919
Speaker 3: two era. This is what global conflicts look like. Afghanistan

807
00:38:31,040 --> 00:38:37,640
Speaker 3: became globalized, Vietnam became globalized, Syria globalized, Libya became global

808
00:38:37,719 --> 00:38:41,040
Speaker 3: like every one of these interventions, the Iraq conflict right.

809
00:38:41,320 --> 00:38:44,200
Speaker 3: The war in Iraq was not between the US and Saddam.

810
00:38:44,320 --> 00:38:46,920
Speaker 3: That portion only lasted like three weeks. It was the

811
00:38:47,040 --> 00:38:50,400
Speaker 3: US versus Iran versus all of these other you know,

812
00:38:50,800 --> 00:38:53,839
Speaker 3: during the Syrians, during al Qaeda, like, all of these

813
00:38:53,840 --> 00:38:55,440
Speaker 3: people coming from all over the globe.

814
00:38:55,640 --> 00:38:57,040
Speaker 1: Same in Syria, I mean.

815
00:38:57,200 --> 00:39:02,960
Speaker 3: Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United States, Israel, has Bola from Labanon, like,

816
00:39:03,200 --> 00:39:06,000
Speaker 3: all of these people were involved. So World War three,

817
00:39:06,320 --> 00:39:08,000
Speaker 3: if you will, is going to look a lot more

818
00:39:08,080 --> 00:39:10,720
Speaker 3: like this because of mutually a short destruction and nuclear

819
00:39:10,760 --> 00:39:13,759
Speaker 3: weapons between the great superpowers. It will look a lot

820
00:39:13,840 --> 00:39:16,439
Speaker 3: more like those conflicts that happened throughout the Cold War.

821
00:39:16,560 --> 00:39:20,479
Speaker 3: That it is less destructive in terms of overall human life.

822
00:39:20,480 --> 00:39:22,719
Speaker 3: But I mean you can still be an abject disaster,

823
00:39:23,160 --> 00:39:25,600
Speaker 3: like how many people died in the wars in Iraq

824
00:39:25,640 --> 00:39:29,200
Speaker 3: and Afghanistan Americans maybe seven thousand, right, I mean there

825
00:39:29,200 --> 00:39:32,200
Speaker 3: were more people killed in a single hour of combat

826
00:39:32,320 --> 00:39:34,560
Speaker 3: in like some of the world wars in that But

827
00:39:34,640 --> 00:39:37,279
Speaker 3: that doesn't mean that the strategic implication was not an

828
00:39:37,320 --> 00:39:39,600
Speaker 3: absolute nightmare for all of us. So I think that's

829
00:39:39,640 --> 00:39:42,440
Speaker 3: why we need to recalibrate some of our expectations I

830
00:39:42,480 --> 00:39:44,200
Speaker 3: don't think Jeffrey Sachs is wrong.

831
00:39:44,280 --> 00:39:46,160
Speaker 1: Really, what I'm the most worried about.

832
00:39:46,000 --> 00:39:48,120
Speaker 3: Is the climb up the escalation ladder, which we talked

833
00:39:48,120 --> 00:39:51,200
Speaker 3: about from oil and to water, because there's no coming

834
00:39:51,239 --> 00:39:54,560
Speaker 3: back from that. Like once you start going after civilian infrastructure,

835
00:39:54,800 --> 00:39:58,279
Speaker 3: it's a disaster because everyone has to fight to the death.

836
00:39:58,280 --> 00:39:59,280
Speaker 1: There's a clip going around.

837
00:39:59,280 --> 00:40:02,880
Speaker 3: I was telling you earlier where Trump said unconditional strender.

838
00:40:02,920 --> 00:40:05,400
Speaker 3: I talked about that with Tucker, and Tucker made a

839
00:40:05,400 --> 00:40:08,680
Speaker 3: comment and he was like, unconditional surrender means that foreign

840
00:40:08,680 --> 00:40:11,799
Speaker 3: troops get to rape your wife and daughter. Provocative, But

841
00:40:12,280 --> 00:40:14,799
Speaker 3: I mean, look at the history of unconditional surrender. That

842
00:40:14,960 --> 00:40:18,880
Speaker 3: is unambiguously true. Randy Fine and Laura luomerol, like Tucker

843
00:40:18,960 --> 00:40:21,160
Speaker 3: says American troops are going to be It's like, that's

844
00:40:21,200 --> 00:40:23,479
Speaker 3: not the point, guys. The point is is that when

845
00:40:23,480 --> 00:40:26,200
Speaker 3: you're faced with that, as the Germans were with the

846
00:40:26,239 --> 00:40:28,239
Speaker 3: Soviet Union, you want to know how many you know,

847
00:40:28,320 --> 00:40:28,759
Speaker 3: not a lot.

848
00:40:28,719 --> 00:40:29,600
Speaker 1: Of people talk about it.

849
00:40:29,600 --> 00:40:31,960
Speaker 3: It's something like two point five million rapes that occurred

850
00:40:32,080 --> 00:40:34,720
Speaker 3: over the battle through the conquest of Germany.

851
00:40:34,800 --> 00:40:38,040
Speaker 1: It's it's dark, like it's really really dark. Jengus Khan.

852
00:40:38,160 --> 00:40:39,720
Speaker 1: That was unconditional surrender.

853
00:40:39,760 --> 00:40:41,560
Speaker 3: And that's the point is that when you impose that

854
00:40:41,800 --> 00:40:44,480
Speaker 3: on a foreign populace, you have to do either what

855
00:40:44,520 --> 00:40:46,640
Speaker 3: the United States or the Union Army did to the

856
00:40:46,680 --> 00:40:49,480
Speaker 3: South during the Civil War is burn their civilian infrastructure

857
00:40:49,480 --> 00:40:51,959
Speaker 3: to the ground, take away all their food. In World

858
00:40:52,040 --> 00:40:55,440
Speaker 3: War Two, literally have to invade and go block by block.

859
00:40:55,520 --> 00:40:58,880
Speaker 3: The Soviet Union, they incurred four hundred thousand casualties in

860
00:40:58,960 --> 00:41:01,160
Speaker 3: nineteen forty five, just in the last six months of

861
00:41:01,200 --> 00:41:03,960
Speaker 3: the war. There are four hundred thousand casualties on the

862
00:41:03,960 --> 00:41:06,400
Speaker 3: front line. Whenever you know, in the Battle of Berlin.

863
00:41:06,520 --> 00:41:09,040
Speaker 3: Think in the United States, how did we get unconditional

864
00:41:09,080 --> 00:41:11,279
Speaker 3: surrender in World War Two? We had to drop two

865
00:41:11,480 --> 00:41:13,640
Speaker 3: atomic bombs to force.

866
00:41:13,400 --> 00:41:15,520
Speaker 7: Them well, and then even know that we had to put.

867
00:41:15,680 --> 00:41:19,359
Speaker 3: Okay, well, use either two atomic bombs, which I mean,

868
00:41:19,400 --> 00:41:22,080
Speaker 3: if you look at the decision matrix, it was either

869
00:41:22,080 --> 00:41:25,680
Speaker 3: two atomic bombs or hundreds of thousands of American casualties.

870
00:41:25,800 --> 00:41:28,000
Speaker 3: There was no other option. That was it if you

871
00:41:28,040 --> 00:41:31,160
Speaker 3: want an unconditional surrender. And even then we still had

872
00:41:31,200 --> 00:41:34,080
Speaker 3: to revise our unconditional surrender to make it so that

873
00:41:34,120 --> 00:41:36,439
Speaker 3: the Emperor could stay as some sort of figurehead. That's

874
00:41:36,440 --> 00:41:39,279
Speaker 3: what it takes to achieve something like this, And that's

875
00:41:39,360 --> 00:41:41,799
Speaker 3: effectively like we're on the road now and it's only

876
00:41:41,880 --> 00:41:42,680
Speaker 3: been eight days.

877
00:41:42,760 --> 00:41:43,719
Speaker 1: Usually it doesn't even take it.

878
00:41:43,760 --> 00:41:45,600
Speaker 3: Usually it takes much longer than this to get to

879
00:41:45,640 --> 00:41:47,120
Speaker 3: some sort of disastrous position.

880
00:41:47,239 --> 00:41:50,480
Speaker 2: Also, you have to think of this from the perspective

881
00:41:50,480 --> 00:41:52,839
Speaker 2: of the rest of the world. Right, it was one

882
00:41:52,840 --> 00:41:55,920
Speaker 2: thing when Trump is like, Okay, we're going to dominate

883
00:41:55,960 --> 00:41:58,759
Speaker 2: our hemisphere. Right, We're gonna do the you know, we're

884
00:41:58,760 --> 00:42:01,200
Speaker 2: gonna do whatever we want. We're going to make sure

885
00:42:01,200 --> 00:42:04,440
Speaker 2: we've installed these puppet regimes where we've kidnapped leaders and we've.

886
00:42:04,280 --> 00:42:06,799
Speaker 7: Brought everybody to heal. We're going to do that.

887
00:42:06,920 --> 00:42:09,480
Speaker 2: And Russia and China you've got your you know, China particularly,

888
00:42:09,480 --> 00:42:10,840
Speaker 2: you've got your spheres of influence.

889
00:42:10,960 --> 00:42:12,839
Speaker 7: You do what you want over that. Okay, that's one thing.

890
00:42:12,960 --> 00:42:15,399
Speaker 1: They love that. That's one they're like, we believe We're like, sure,

891
00:42:15,719 --> 00:42:20,800
Speaker 1: Donroe doctrine. We're cool. Yeah, they're like, then we get Taiwan, right, yeah.

892
00:42:20,719 --> 00:42:24,479
Speaker 2: But now, especially when you consider we've you know, Trump

893
00:42:24,560 --> 00:42:27,440
Speaker 2: has not solved the Ukraine conflict. We are you know,

894
00:42:27,520 --> 00:42:29,719
Speaker 2: in endless war in Ukraine. We are locked in a

895
00:42:29,719 --> 00:42:32,359
Speaker 2: proxy war with Russia and Ukraine. Okay, and now you

896
00:42:32,400 --> 00:42:35,200
Speaker 2: add to the mix. Oh, by the way, we're going

897
00:42:35,280 --> 00:42:39,160
Speaker 2: to destroy Iran. We're going to you know, do regime

898
00:42:39,280 --> 00:42:43,560
Speaker 2: change or collapse the regime or whatever in that recha. Well,

899
00:42:43,560 --> 00:42:47,320
Speaker 2: that's not our hemisphere. It becomes clear that the point

900
00:42:47,360 --> 00:42:50,719
Speaker 2: is to dominate the entire world. The point the response

901
00:42:50,760 --> 00:42:54,239
Speaker 2: from the Trump administration to you know, the the decline

902
00:42:54,480 --> 00:42:57,880
Speaker 2: of our empire and the decline of our superpower status

903
00:42:57,920 --> 00:43:00,799
Speaker 2: as the sole global hedgemon, is not to say, all right,

904
00:43:00,920 --> 00:43:03,480
Speaker 2: let's come to some sort of accommodation with the world.

905
00:43:03,800 --> 00:43:06,080
Speaker 2: The response is no, We're going to have a one

906
00:43:06,120 --> 00:43:08,680
Speaker 2: point five trillion dollar defense budget and we are going

907
00:43:08,719 --> 00:43:12,800
Speaker 2: to dominate the entire world. We're going to do whatever

908
00:43:12,880 --> 00:43:16,560
Speaker 2: we want to whoever we want, no holds barred, law

909
00:43:16,600 --> 00:43:19,440
Speaker 2: of the jungle. And I have to think that if

910
00:43:19,480 --> 00:43:21,600
Speaker 2: you're a China, if you're a Russia, if you're any

911
00:43:21,600 --> 00:43:24,200
Speaker 2: other you know, significant power in the world, that is

912
00:43:24,239 --> 00:43:28,560
Speaker 2: an unacceptable approach to you. So it is intentionally bringing

913
00:43:28,640 --> 00:43:32,920
Speaker 2: us into direct conflict with these other countries. And again,

914
00:43:33,000 --> 00:43:36,719
Speaker 2: this isn't theoretical. This is already happening now, especially with

915
00:43:36,800 --> 00:43:40,399
Speaker 2: China considering, you know, involving themselves directly in our war

916
00:43:40,440 --> 00:43:43,040
Speaker 2: in Iran, and you can understand why we're messing with

917
00:43:43,160 --> 00:43:46,160
Speaker 2: their stuff, We're messing with their oil, and we are

918
00:43:46,200 --> 00:43:49,200
Speaker 2: also asserting to the world that we are going to

919
00:43:49,280 --> 00:43:51,399
Speaker 2: try to dominate the entire world. We're going to blow

920
00:43:51,480 --> 00:43:53,719
Speaker 2: up the UN and these other you know, institutions of

921
00:43:53,760 --> 00:43:56,520
Speaker 2: global cooperation. We're going to put Trump at the head

922
00:43:56,520 --> 00:43:59,120
Speaker 2: of the quote unquote Board of Peace and you know,

923
00:43:59,200 --> 00:44:01,960
Speaker 2: allow him to serve in perpetuity and get to appoint

924
00:44:01,960 --> 00:44:04,239
Speaker 2: his successor, and you have to pay to get in,

925
00:44:04,400 --> 00:44:08,520
Speaker 2: and ultimately he has veto power. That is the direction

926
00:44:08,640 --> 00:44:11,839
Speaker 2: that they have clearly broadcast to the world. And so yeah,

927
00:44:12,120 --> 00:44:14,960
Speaker 2: the rest of the world at some point already is

928
00:44:15,320 --> 00:44:17,480
Speaker 2: going to have something to say about that.

929
00:44:17,880 --> 00:44:19,160
Speaker 7: So that's one piece.

930
00:44:19,520 --> 00:44:22,520
Speaker 2: The other piece here is the possibility of the deployment

931
00:44:22,600 --> 00:44:26,720
Speaker 2: of nuclear weapons because now you have obviously Israel also

932
00:44:27,000 --> 00:44:30,360
Speaker 2: nuclear power and completely psychotic, and you know, parts of

933
00:44:30,400 --> 00:44:33,400
Speaker 2: it driven by these you know, religious fanaticism. Parts of

934
00:44:33,400 --> 00:44:36,399
Speaker 2: our government driven by religious fanaticism, which makes this whole

935
00:44:36,400 --> 00:44:39,560
Speaker 2: thing scary as well. Obviously, Iran is a literal theocracy,

936
00:44:39,640 --> 00:44:42,840
Speaker 2: so you have religious fanaticism there as well. And you

937
00:44:42,880 --> 00:44:47,239
Speaker 2: have these very dominant comments recently from Netnyahu. Let's put

938
00:44:47,239 --> 00:44:50,080
Speaker 2: a six up on the screen where he is promising

939
00:44:50,560 --> 00:44:54,600
Speaker 2: some sort of a major surprise for Iran. He says

940
00:44:54,600 --> 00:44:58,080
Speaker 2: that will completely destabilize the country. Now he's asking Irani's

941
00:44:58,080 --> 00:44:59,960
Speaker 2: to lay down their weapons and surrender or face death.

942
00:45:00,040 --> 00:45:03,359
Speaker 2: He said, quote, the moment of truth is approaching, and

943
00:45:03,400 --> 00:45:06,680
Speaker 2: he will free Iran and make Iran and Israel allies. Okay,

944
00:45:06,719 --> 00:45:09,040
Speaker 2: so we have that, So what is that major surprise?

945
00:45:09,560 --> 00:45:13,359
Speaker 2: That's a little uncomfortable. And then this also just came out.

946
00:45:13,360 --> 00:45:15,640
Speaker 2: It can be e seven up on the screen. You've

947
00:45:15,680 --> 00:45:18,840
Speaker 2: got this guy who makes these like doomsday bunkers that

948
00:45:18,880 --> 00:45:21,600
Speaker 2: are supposed to be, you know, to allow you to

949
00:45:21,640 --> 00:45:25,279
Speaker 2: survive drone attacks, blistic missile strikes, or even nuclear armageddon.

950
00:45:25,840 --> 00:45:28,960
Speaker 2: And he claims that two senior cabinet members in the

951
00:45:28,960 --> 00:45:32,240
Speaker 2: Trump administration are among his clients. One of them texted

952
00:45:32,280 --> 00:45:36,200
Speaker 2: me yesterday asking me, quote, when will my bunker be ready?

953
00:45:36,800 --> 00:45:41,759
Speaker 2: So not exactly comforting when the people who are in

954
00:45:41,840 --> 00:45:46,880
Speaker 2: charge here are preparing their doomsday bunkers and trying to

955
00:45:47,000 --> 00:45:50,800
Speaker 2: rush delivery, concerned about how quickly they will have access

956
00:45:50,960 --> 00:45:54,680
Speaker 2: to this anti armagedon armageddon proof bunker for themselves.

957
00:45:54,760 --> 00:45:55,000
Speaker 9: Yeah.

958
00:45:55,160 --> 00:45:56,400
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know if it's true or not,

959
00:45:56,520 --> 00:45:57,799
Speaker 1: but it is crazy, and.

960
00:45:57,760 --> 00:45:59,839
Speaker 3: I do think, you know, to the whole World War

961
00:46:00,280 --> 00:46:03,400
Speaker 3: point and actually what you were saying about how others

962
00:46:03,440 --> 00:46:05,799
Speaker 3: will react, I'm very world War one brain. So to

963
00:46:05,880 --> 00:46:08,160
Speaker 3: me this it's like everyone's like, oh, this is going

964
00:46:08,200 --> 00:46:09,960
Speaker 3: to cause World War three and I'm like, no, I

965
00:46:09,960 --> 00:46:11,560
Speaker 3: don't think so if we were to have like a

966
00:46:11,600 --> 00:46:14,480
Speaker 3: real massive thing. But what it does is it shatters

967
00:46:14,520 --> 00:46:17,640
Speaker 3: the illusions and the understandings that we all have. So

968
00:46:17,680 --> 00:46:19,239
Speaker 3: there was the Boer War, which a lot of people

969
00:46:19,280 --> 00:46:21,560
Speaker 3: don't know about, but you know, it's between Britain, and

970
00:46:21,680 --> 00:46:23,480
Speaker 3: what it did is it pierced like this idea of

971
00:46:23,480 --> 00:46:27,160
Speaker 3: splendid isolation. It really heightened the tensions between the Anglos

972
00:46:27,200 --> 00:46:27,880
Speaker 3: and the Germans.

973
00:46:28,080 --> 00:46:29,399
Speaker 1: It led to the Triple On Tent.

974
00:46:29,560 --> 00:46:31,880
Speaker 3: But more importantly, it normalized like a lot of the

975
00:46:31,920 --> 00:46:34,440
Speaker 3: modern trench warfare, the concentration camp. That's where a lot

976
00:46:34,480 --> 00:46:36,799
Speaker 3: of that stuff came from. But what it did is

977
00:46:36,840 --> 00:46:39,880
Speaker 3: it set the stage for well, wow, Britain is not

978
00:46:40,080 --> 00:46:43,080
Speaker 3: nearly as invincible as we all thought, which means we

979
00:46:43,120 --> 00:46:45,800
Speaker 3: need to rearm because oh it's a paper tiger maybe,

980
00:46:45,800 --> 00:46:48,360
Speaker 3: and that's what leads to the Great Clash in nineteen fourteen.

981
00:46:48,640 --> 00:46:50,719
Speaker 1: Well, I could see this very similarly. It's like you

982
00:46:50,760 --> 00:46:51,000
Speaker 1: have this.

983
00:46:51,080 --> 00:46:54,759
Speaker 3: I mean, nobody could say that this was essential for

984
00:46:54,920 --> 00:46:57,880
Speaker 3: US security, just like Iraq. So you have this, you know,

985
00:46:58,040 --> 00:47:02,240
Speaker 3: foreign adventurous conflict. Some Americans will die, but not hundreds

986
00:47:02,280 --> 00:47:05,000
Speaker 3: of thousands or anything like that. I'm not minimizing their

987
00:47:05,000 --> 00:47:07,400
Speaker 3: debts in any way. I'm saying domestically, we can absorb that.

988
00:47:07,440 --> 00:47:10,120
Speaker 3: If we could absorb seven thousand casualties from the Global

989
00:47:10,120 --> 00:47:15,040
Speaker 3: War on Terror, most people, how did the GWOT impact them? Well,

990
00:47:15,120 --> 00:47:18,080
Speaker 3: we all knew somebody who maybe have deployed and came

991
00:47:18,120 --> 00:47:20,600
Speaker 3: back with PTSD, But for the most people, it was

992
00:47:20,719 --> 00:47:23,480
Speaker 3: high gas prices, bad politics, etc. But it wasn't like

993
00:47:23,480 --> 00:47:26,640
Speaker 3: an attack literally on our everyday civilization. This is very similar.

994
00:47:26,640 --> 00:47:28,560
Speaker 3: Most people will be very upset, but it's not going

995
00:47:28,640 --> 00:47:30,839
Speaker 3: to directly impact your life in the way that.

996
00:47:31,000 --> 00:47:32,560
Speaker 1: A real world war would.

997
00:47:32,719 --> 00:47:36,719
Speaker 3: But China, Russia, all any of these other countries, what

998
00:47:36,800 --> 00:47:40,319
Speaker 3: they're watching for. Is any of the kinks in our

999
00:47:40,400 --> 00:47:44,040
Speaker 3: armor interceptors, for example, the breakdown in the global order

1000
00:47:44,200 --> 00:47:47,560
Speaker 3: the GCC countries after this is all over, you really

1001
00:47:47,600 --> 00:47:49,160
Speaker 3: think they're going to be great friends with America.

1002
00:47:49,200 --> 00:47:51,320
Speaker 1: So we have to rebuild all these radar systems.

1003
00:47:51,480 --> 00:47:53,560
Speaker 3: You need permission, you have status to force agreements with

1004
00:47:53,600 --> 00:47:54,520
Speaker 3: every one of these countries.

1005
00:47:54,680 --> 00:47:57,600
Speaker 1: Are you re signing? I don't think so, I really don't.

1006
00:47:57,880 --> 00:47:59,279
Speaker 3: Or we're going to have to bribe the shit out

1007
00:47:59,280 --> 00:48:01,760
Speaker 3: of them with weapons we don't have, yeah.

1008
00:48:01,719 --> 00:48:03,439
Speaker 1: Or we'll have to take from somebody else.

1009
00:48:03,480 --> 00:48:04,120
Speaker 7: And how about this.

1010
00:48:04,400 --> 00:48:06,640
Speaker 2: Let's say China does take this as opportunity to move

1011
00:48:06,640 --> 00:48:10,799
Speaker 2: on Taiwan. Then we're not ready for that. Not militarily,

1012
00:48:11,000 --> 00:48:12,840
Speaker 2: I mean, I think I personally think it would be

1013
00:48:12,880 --> 00:48:16,120
Speaker 2: insane to get in a fight with China over Taiwan, ever,

1014
00:48:16,239 --> 00:48:19,320
Speaker 2: but especially at this point. But we're also not prepared

1015
00:48:19,360 --> 00:48:23,279
Speaker 2: domestically to We have not spun up the semiconductor capacity

1016
00:48:23,360 --> 00:48:23,919
Speaker 2: that we need.

1017
00:48:24,160 --> 00:48:24,720
Speaker 7: We're fucked.

1018
00:48:25,160 --> 00:48:28,840
Speaker 2: So, I mean, that's and that's the reason that anyone

1019
00:48:28,880 --> 00:48:32,120
Speaker 2: cares about Taiwan. Really, it's not about human rights and democracy,

1020
00:48:32,160 --> 00:48:35,319
Speaker 2: total incomplete bullshit. It's the semiconductors. That's the whole thing.

1021
00:48:35,840 --> 00:48:37,960
Speaker 2: We aren't prepared for that. So what are we going

1022
00:48:38,000 --> 00:48:38,239
Speaker 2: to do?

1023
00:48:38,400 --> 00:48:38,640
Speaker 1: Then?

1024
00:48:38,800 --> 00:48:41,279
Speaker 2: Then we're you know, in a direct conflict with China.

1025
00:48:41,800 --> 00:48:44,239
Speaker 2: So I don't know. I mean, I I do sort

1026
00:48:44,280 --> 00:48:48,000
Speaker 2: of agree with Jeffrey Sachs and also with your point

1027
00:48:48,200 --> 00:48:51,600
Speaker 2: that in a sense we are already in that conflict now.

1028
00:48:51,640 --> 00:48:53,680
Speaker 2: It doesn't look like World War one. It doesn't look

1029
00:48:53,719 --> 00:48:55,920
Speaker 2: like World War two. To your point, it's not going

1030
00:48:56,000 --> 00:48:58,440
Speaker 2: to especially in you know, the nuclear age where you

1031
00:48:58,480 --> 00:49:01,040
Speaker 2: have not just US, but it's in Russia and China,

1032
00:49:01,239 --> 00:49:05,400
Speaker 2: all these nuclear powers that are you know, hopefully not

1033
00:49:05,440 --> 00:49:09,720
Speaker 2: itching to destroy the entire world, hopefully, but in terms

1034
00:49:09,760 --> 00:49:12,359
Speaker 2: of the lines of conflict and being engaged in these

1035
00:49:12,440 --> 00:49:14,919
Speaker 2: various proxy fights, I mean, it's already on. And there's

1036
00:49:14,920 --> 00:49:17,200
Speaker 2: something else that I saw online that I thought was

1037
00:49:17,400 --> 00:49:19,560
Speaker 2: an intelligent point as well. You know, we talked a

1038
00:49:19,560 --> 00:49:21,279
Speaker 2: lot in the show about the possibility of boots on

1039
00:49:21,320 --> 00:49:23,560
Speaker 2: the ground, and we're talking about specifically, you know, probably

1040
00:49:23,600 --> 00:49:26,240
Speaker 2: special forces to begin with at least raid into Iran

1041
00:49:26,280 --> 00:49:29,279
Speaker 2: to try to recover this loose nuclear material whatever. But

1042
00:49:29,320 --> 00:49:31,560
Speaker 2: in a broader sense, we already have boots on the ground.

1043
00:49:31,600 --> 00:49:33,000
Speaker 2: I mean, this is a regional war, and we have

1044
00:49:33,040 --> 00:49:35,360
Speaker 2: a lot of American service members who are in the region,

1045
00:49:35,400 --> 00:49:38,120
Speaker 2: boots on the ground getting killed in action right now

1046
00:49:38,160 --> 00:49:41,080
Speaker 2: and getting wounded. We don't know how many right now

1047
00:49:41,600 --> 00:49:44,319
Speaker 2: as part of this fight. So in a sense, it's

1048
00:49:44,360 --> 00:49:46,880
Speaker 2: a bit of a distinction without a difference, because there

1049
00:49:46,960 --> 00:49:50,040
Speaker 2: is no doubt there are already American service member boots

1050
00:49:50,080 --> 00:49:52,799
Speaker 2: on the ground in the middle of this war, in

1051
00:49:52,840 --> 00:49:55,520
Speaker 2: the theater of combat where all of the action is happening.

1052
00:49:55,600 --> 00:49:57,680
Speaker 3: Of course, yeah, you're right. We have boots on the

1053
00:49:57,680 --> 00:50:00,920
Speaker 3: ground and four deployed bases. Which for what to defend?

1054
00:50:00,960 --> 00:50:01,160
Speaker 5: Who?

1055
00:50:01,440 --> 00:50:01,800
Speaker 1: Israel?

1056
00:50:02,160 --> 00:50:04,120
Speaker 3: Well, no, they would say, no, it's not to defend Israel.

1057
00:50:04,160 --> 00:50:06,120
Speaker 3: Let's to defend the golf countries. How's that working out?

1058
00:50:06,280 --> 00:50:07,560
Speaker 3: How's that working out for the golf countries?

1059
00:50:07,960 --> 00:50:09,759
Speaker 7: You're feeling very defended right now.

1060
00:50:10,120 --> 00:50:15,800
Speaker 3: They are furious on the timeline Amarati billionaires with massive

1061
00:50:15,800 --> 00:50:19,640
Speaker 3: amounts of money invested here are all posting about how

1062
00:50:19,719 --> 00:50:22,120
Speaker 3: upset they are with the United States. Also, just so

1063
00:50:22,200 --> 00:50:25,080
Speaker 3: people know, the billionaires are the cutouts for the royal family.

1064
00:50:25,080 --> 00:50:26,120
Speaker 1: That's how it works over there.

1065
00:50:26,160 --> 00:50:28,719
Speaker 3: You don't have free speech, you don't put out long

1066
00:50:28,800 --> 00:50:32,560
Speaker 3: essays criticizing the US government without at least TACIT admission

1067
00:50:32,880 --> 00:50:36,360
Speaker 3: or without TACIT permission from the monarchy are the people

1068
00:50:36,360 --> 00:50:38,680
Speaker 3: who are in charge. These are all messages which are

1069
00:50:38,719 --> 00:50:42,200
Speaker 3: intended for the United States. Again, not that anybody cares

1070
00:50:42,360 --> 00:50:44,280
Speaker 3: last point on this, because it really makes me upset.

1071
00:50:44,480 --> 00:50:47,680
Speaker 3: Our actual allies, like really good allies, South Korea and Japan.

1072
00:50:47,880 --> 00:50:48,759
Speaker 1: Their stock market.

1073
00:50:48,920 --> 00:50:52,319
Speaker 3: South Korea's stock market is down fourteen percent, Japan is

1074
00:50:52,360 --> 00:50:55,640
Speaker 3: down like eight It's a disaster. The vast majority of

1075
00:50:55,640 --> 00:50:58,640
Speaker 3: their oil comes from the Middle East. Their economies are

1076
00:50:58,640 --> 00:51:02,719
Speaker 3: getting hammered, and we're losing. We're taking away possibly interceptors

1077
00:51:02,719 --> 00:51:05,360
Speaker 3: and others like those I mean South Korea, Japan.

1078
00:51:05,440 --> 00:51:08,560
Speaker 1: These are not Israel, where we do fifty three billion

1079
00:51:08,560 --> 00:51:09,319
Speaker 1: in bilatal trade.

1080
00:51:09,320 --> 00:51:12,200
Speaker 3: I'm talking about hundreds of billions, trillions of dollars for

1081
00:51:12,280 --> 00:51:13,480
Speaker 3: the global economy.

1082
00:51:13,560 --> 00:51:14,719
Speaker 1: And those people are mean.

1083
00:51:14,600 --> 00:51:18,560
Speaker 3: Get hung left out to dry by Washington. It's so disgraceful.

1084
00:51:18,600 --> 00:51:23,600
Speaker 3: All right, Let's get to Lindsay Graham. Turning now to

1085
00:51:23,760 --> 00:51:25,680
Speaker 3: the person who should be having the most fun in

1086
00:51:25,719 --> 00:51:28,040
Speaker 3: this war, Lindsey Graham. He's at the height of his

1087
00:51:28,160 --> 00:51:30,600
Speaker 3: powers here in Washington. How did he get there. It

1088
00:51:30,640 --> 00:51:33,640
Speaker 3: turns out by colluding directly with Prime Minister net and

1089
00:51:33,680 --> 00:51:37,959
Speaker 3: Yahoo of Israel and their own intelligence agencies, using their

1090
00:51:38,000 --> 00:51:40,879
Speaker 3: tactics to lobby Donald Trump behind the scenes, and now

1091
00:51:40,920 --> 00:51:44,640
Speaker 3: openly bragging about war and death and all the money

1092
00:51:44,640 --> 00:51:46,600
Speaker 3: we're gonna make from this war. How we're even going

1093
00:51:46,680 --> 00:51:49,960
Speaker 3: to free Cuba on Fox News airwaves. It's beyond two

1094
00:51:50,000 --> 00:51:51,960
Speaker 3: thousand and three, madness. Let's take a listen.

1095
00:51:52,239 --> 00:51:55,040
Speaker 11: This regime goes down, We're gonna have a new Mideast.

1096
00:51:55,320 --> 00:51:58,720
Speaker 11: We're gonna make a ton of money. Nobody will threaten

1097
00:51:58,760 --> 00:52:01,160
Speaker 11: the straits of horror moons, and we're going to win

1098
00:52:01,920 --> 00:52:04,479
Speaker 11: chel in the United States. You just wait to see

1099
00:52:04,520 --> 00:52:06,240
Speaker 11: what comes in the next two weeks.

1100
00:52:07,160 --> 00:52:08,279
Speaker 1: The next two weeks meaning what.

1101
00:52:10,400 --> 00:52:13,000
Speaker 11: We're gonna blow the hell out of these people. This

1102
00:52:13,080 --> 00:52:15,960
Speaker 11: regime is in a death row now. It is going

1103
00:52:16,080 --> 00:52:18,960
Speaker 11: to be on its knees. I'm not looking for a

1104
00:52:19,000 --> 00:52:20,759
Speaker 11: fair fight. If we get in a fight, I want

1105
00:52:20,760 --> 00:52:21,080
Speaker 11: to win it.

1106
00:52:21,160 --> 00:52:22,160
Speaker 1: I want to win it quick.

1107
00:52:22,400 --> 00:52:23,160
Speaker 11: I'm in Miami.

1108
00:52:23,200 --> 00:52:25,520
Speaker 7: You see this hat, Free Cuba.

1109
00:52:25,680 --> 00:52:26,400
Speaker 5: Stay tuned.

1110
00:52:26,640 --> 00:52:28,960
Speaker 11: The liberation of Cuba is upon us.

1111
00:52:29,280 --> 00:52:30,600
Speaker 5: It's just a matter of time.

1112
00:52:30,680 --> 00:52:30,879
Speaker 9: Now.

1113
00:52:30,960 --> 00:52:34,560
Speaker 11: You see this at make a ron great. President Trump said,

1114
00:52:34,600 --> 00:52:36,400
Speaker 11: the only way to make a ron great is for

1115
00:52:36,440 --> 00:52:39,360
Speaker 11: the people to take over. We're marching through the world.

1116
00:52:39,440 --> 00:52:42,960
Speaker 11: We're cleaning out the bad guys. We're gonna have relationships

1117
00:52:42,960 --> 00:52:45,759
Speaker 11: with new people that will make us prosperous. And say,

1118
00:52:45,920 --> 00:52:49,680
Speaker 11: I've never seen anybody like it. This is Ronald reagand Plus,

1119
00:52:50,200 --> 00:52:53,000
Speaker 11: Donald Trump is resetting the world in a way nobody

1120
00:52:53,040 --> 00:52:55,120
Speaker 11: could have dreamed of a year ago. He is the

1121
00:52:55,239 --> 00:52:58,920
Speaker 11: greatest commander in chief of all time. Our military is

1122
00:52:58,920 --> 00:53:02,000
Speaker 11: the best of all time. Iran is going down, and

1123
00:53:02,120 --> 00:53:03,160
Speaker 11: Cuba is next.

1124
00:53:03,719 --> 00:53:05,880
Speaker 3: Does he even have a hat that says America on it?

1125
00:53:05,920 --> 00:53:07,560
Speaker 3: You know, I mean, how many hats does this guy

1126
00:53:07,640 --> 00:53:09,840
Speaker 3: have of foreign countries? It's crazy.

1127
00:53:09,880 --> 00:53:12,640
Speaker 7: I mean, to the heroes, we're marching through the world.

1128
00:53:12,760 --> 00:53:16,760
Speaker 2: I mean, we're cleaning out all the bad guys. Plus,

1129
00:53:16,800 --> 00:53:19,640
Speaker 2: it's like Jesus Christ. I mean, it's worse than two

1130
00:53:19,680 --> 00:53:23,200
Speaker 2: thousand and five rud Er. Genuinely, We're marching through the

1131
00:53:23,239 --> 00:53:27,520
Speaker 2: world insanity. And yet you know he's he's getting a

1132
00:53:27,520 --> 00:53:30,040
Speaker 2: little nervous about the oil situation too.

1133
00:53:30,120 --> 00:53:31,600
Speaker 7: I'll read this. I don't think we have this as

1134
00:53:31,600 --> 00:53:32,080
Speaker 7: an element.

1135
00:53:32,160 --> 00:53:35,040
Speaker 2: But he says in this tweet, our allies in Israel

1136
00:53:35,040 --> 00:53:37,840
Speaker 2: have shown amazing capability when it comes to collapsing the

1137
00:53:37,920 --> 00:53:39,000
Speaker 2: murderous regime in Iran.

1138
00:53:39,080 --> 00:53:41,840
Speaker 7: America is most appreciative. Speak for yourself.

1139
00:53:42,080 --> 00:53:44,080
Speaker 2: However, there will be a day soon the Iranian people

1140
00:53:44,120 --> 00:53:46,040
Speaker 2: will be in charge of their own fate, not the

1141
00:53:46,120 --> 00:53:49,799
Speaker 2: murderous Iatola's regime. In that regard, please be cautious about

1142
00:53:49,800 --> 00:53:51,920
Speaker 2: what targets you select. Our goal is to liberate the

1143
00:53:51,920 --> 00:53:54,080
Speaker 2: Iranian people in a fashion that does not cripple their

1144
00:53:54,160 --> 00:53:56,200
Speaker 2: chance to start a new and better life when this

1145
00:53:56,239 --> 00:54:00,200
Speaker 2: regime collapses. The oil economy of Iran will be essential

1146
00:54:00,320 --> 00:54:03,440
Speaker 2: to that endeavor. So when they were murdering schoolgirls, he

1147
00:54:03,640 --> 00:54:05,520
Speaker 2: didn't have any problem with that. He was, you know,

1148
00:54:05,600 --> 00:54:08,360
Speaker 2: on error, ecstatic. We're merching through the world, blah blah blah.

1149
00:54:08,560 --> 00:54:10,600
Speaker 2: Now that the oil is threatened at home, that's.

1150
00:54:10,560 --> 00:54:12,600
Speaker 7: That's too far. That's a bridge too far.

1151
00:54:12,640 --> 00:54:15,560
Speaker 2: Asaga, we can't have an attacking the you know, any

1152
00:54:15,600 --> 00:54:18,200
Speaker 2: of the oil impacted, that would be a real problem

1153
00:54:18,200 --> 00:54:18,680
Speaker 2: for lit right.

1154
00:54:19,160 --> 00:54:22,480
Speaker 3: But here's the reality and the reason why is that again,

1155
00:54:22,640 --> 00:54:27,560
Speaker 3: America has a interest in a stable Iran afterwards. Why

1156
00:54:27,600 --> 00:54:30,120
Speaker 3: because we want the prize of oil where the global empire.

1157
00:54:30,040 --> 00:54:31,120
Speaker 1: Israel doesn't care.

1158
00:54:31,480 --> 00:54:34,160
Speaker 3: And yet for him to be chimping out over this,

1159
00:54:34,280 --> 00:54:36,600
Speaker 3: it's like, dude, this is what you signed us up for,

1160
00:54:37,000 --> 00:54:39,160
Speaker 3: and let's go and put F two on the screen

1161
00:54:39,400 --> 00:54:42,799
Speaker 3: because this shit is so crazy. To help make the

1162
00:54:42,840 --> 00:54:46,640
Speaker 3: case on Iran, Graham traveled several times to Israel in

1163
00:54:46,680 --> 00:54:51,400
Speaker 3: recent weeks, meeting with members of the country's intelligence agency. Quote,

1164
00:54:51,440 --> 00:54:54,080
Speaker 3: they'll tell me things our own government won't tell me,

1165
00:54:54,160 --> 00:54:57,600
Speaker 3: he said. He spoke with Prime Minister Netanyaho coaching him

1166
00:54:57,640 --> 00:55:00,920
Speaker 3: on how to lobby the president for action. I mean,

1167
00:55:00,960 --> 00:55:05,120
Speaker 3: you directly have a Senate, a senator United States Center

1168
00:55:05,200 --> 00:55:08,520
Speaker 3: from South Carolina, who is traveling multiple times to the

1169
00:55:08,520 --> 00:55:11,320
Speaker 3: country of Israel, where he's bragging about it. He's meeting

1170
00:55:11,360 --> 00:55:15,399
Speaker 3: with them, he's being coached by them, coaching them. I mean,

1171
00:55:15,480 --> 00:55:17,560
Speaker 3: they talk about his long game going all the way

1172
00:55:17,560 --> 00:55:20,919
Speaker 3: back to twenty fifteen, about him sucking up to Donald

1173
00:55:20,960 --> 00:55:24,080
Speaker 3: Trump after initially getting into it with on the campaign trail,

1174
00:55:24,360 --> 00:55:28,080
Speaker 3: about how he historically would butter Trump up, about comparing

1175
00:55:28,080 --> 00:55:30,520
Speaker 3: the Ayatola to Hitler and saying that the only thing

1176
00:55:30,520 --> 00:55:33,560
Speaker 3: you have to fear is fear itself. Saying, FDR, He's like,

1177
00:55:33,600 --> 00:55:36,080
Speaker 3: you're going to be one of the greats. Reminded Trump

1178
00:55:36,120 --> 00:55:40,080
Speaker 3: about ripping up Obama's nuclear deal at every turn. Quote

1179
00:55:40,760 --> 00:55:43,560
Speaker 3: White House aids even would call him the annoying crazy

1180
00:55:43,680 --> 00:55:46,400
Speaker 3: uncle because you would always be showing up at Trump's

1181
00:55:46,400 --> 00:55:50,040
Speaker 3: golf clubs just sitting in his ear talking whispering sweet

1182
00:55:50,080 --> 00:55:53,080
Speaker 3: nothings about how good it is whenever it comes to Iran,

1183
00:55:53,200 --> 00:55:56,640
Speaker 3: and he's the proponent, not only as they point out,

1184
00:55:56,760 --> 00:55:59,719
Speaker 3: of Iran but Lebanon. He wants to widen the war.

1185
00:56:00,040 --> 00:56:03,680
Speaker 3: He's fundamentally with Israeli interests. And look, I won't you know,

1186
00:56:03,719 --> 00:56:08,560
Speaker 3: speculate to Senator Graham's personal, you know, reasons for supporting this.

1187
00:56:08,680 --> 00:56:11,920
Speaker 3: But look, here's one at least I think fair hit

1188
00:56:12,360 --> 00:56:15,040
Speaker 3: beyond any of the stuff about his own personal life.

1189
00:56:15,080 --> 00:56:17,200
Speaker 3: This guy doesn't have any children, you know, he doesn't

1190
00:56:17,200 --> 00:56:19,719
Speaker 3: have any investment in the future of the country. He's

1191
00:56:19,760 --> 00:56:22,359
Speaker 3: in his seventies. This is all just a game for him,

1192
00:56:22,440 --> 00:56:25,399
Speaker 3: like at an intellectual exercise. He wants to be Richard

1193
00:56:25,440 --> 00:56:27,719
Speaker 3: Russell or any of these other senators and get their

1194
00:56:27,840 --> 00:56:30,840
Speaker 3: name on a building who had a great senator Fulbright

1195
00:56:30,840 --> 00:56:33,160
Speaker 3: and get a scholarship named after him, Like that's what's

1196
00:56:33,200 --> 00:56:36,600
Speaker 3: driving him, not any of our prosperity, any of our interests.

1197
00:56:36,600 --> 00:56:37,920
Speaker 1: And that's why it's so sickening.

1198
00:56:38,080 --> 00:56:42,439
Speaker 2: This is another reason why the old men in charge

1199
00:56:42,440 --> 00:56:44,200
Speaker 2: of this country was a problem, because they start thinking

1200
00:56:44,200 --> 00:56:46,880
Speaker 2: about their legacy and start doing insane things. Apparently is

1201
00:56:46,880 --> 00:56:48,600
Speaker 2: a problem that we're having right now because I think

1202
00:56:48,600 --> 00:56:50,880
Speaker 2: that's part of the calculus for Trump as well. He

1203
00:56:50,920 --> 00:56:52,360
Speaker 2: wants to leave his mark on the world, and I

1204
00:56:52,400 --> 00:56:54,279
Speaker 2: don't think he really, you know, gives a shit whether

1205
00:56:54,320 --> 00:56:55,360
Speaker 2: it's a good mark or a bad.

1206
00:56:55,520 --> 00:56:56,160
Speaker 1: Or the ayahtola.

1207
00:56:56,239 --> 00:56:58,840
Speaker 3: He was eighty six, you know, he was super cerebral.

1208
00:56:58,840 --> 00:57:01,480
Speaker 3: That's what everybody said around me. Make any decisions. He's

1209
00:57:01,480 --> 00:57:03,680
Speaker 3: an old man. He just wants to die a martyr.

1210
00:57:03,800 --> 00:57:06,000
Speaker 3: Hen's yeah, we got gave it.

1211
00:57:05,920 --> 00:57:10,200
Speaker 2: To congratulations, accomplished his goal with our help. And just

1212
00:57:10,239 --> 00:57:12,640
Speaker 2: look at this next to the response from the Iranian

1213
00:57:12,760 --> 00:57:15,799
Speaker 2: foreign minister to the revelations about Lindsey Graham, which again

1214
00:57:15,880 --> 00:57:16,720
Speaker 2: I just want to sit on for a.

1215
00:57:16,760 --> 00:57:18,520
Speaker 7: Sec just think of how crazy this is.

1216
00:57:18,960 --> 00:57:22,840
Speaker 2: He is going to a foreign country, getting intelligence from them,

1217
00:57:23,280 --> 00:57:27,040
Speaker 2: coaching their leader about how to drag us into a war,

1218
00:57:27,080 --> 00:57:30,240
Speaker 2: how to convince our president to take us into a war,

1219
00:57:30,320 --> 00:57:33,400
Speaker 2: and apparently was successful. So he said here in response

1220
00:57:33,440 --> 00:57:36,640
Speaker 2: to this very article in Iran, an official could never

1221
00:57:36,720 --> 00:57:39,600
Speaker 2: travel to another country to collude with a foreign spy

1222
00:57:39,720 --> 00:57:42,800
Speaker 2: service on how to coach our own president into doing

1223
00:57:42,880 --> 00:57:45,120
Speaker 2: the bidding of foreigners. We would ask what the foreign

1224
00:57:45,120 --> 00:57:48,640
Speaker 2: country may have on that official and promptly charge him

1225
00:57:48,760 --> 00:57:51,720
Speaker 2: or her with high treason. And if we were functioning

1226
00:57:51,800 --> 00:57:55,440
Speaker 2: society and thinking in the same direction, that is how

1227
00:57:55,680 --> 00:57:59,040
Speaker 2: utterly insane this is. And with Lindsay Graham, you know,

1228
00:57:59,640 --> 00:58:02,960
Speaker 2: you guys may remember going back to he was actually

1229
00:58:02,960 --> 00:58:05,360
Speaker 2: in that presidential primary as like, and also ran in

1230
00:58:05,400 --> 00:58:10,560
Speaker 2: the twenty sixteen presidential election, fierce critic of.

1231
00:58:10,440 --> 00:58:12,720
Speaker 7: Trump because he worried that Trump would not.

1232
00:58:12,800 --> 00:58:15,960
Speaker 2: Be excited about getting into these wars based on Trump's

1233
00:58:16,000 --> 00:58:17,840
Speaker 2: rhetoric at the time as being you know, against the

1234
00:58:17,840 --> 00:58:21,000
Speaker 2: Iraq war, et cetera. Then he turns into Trump's sick

1235
00:58:21,040 --> 00:58:23,320
Speaker 2: a fan. Then you know, he's very critical of Trump

1236
00:58:23,400 --> 00:58:27,240
Speaker 2: after January sixth, but very quickly he realizes, okay, the

1237
00:58:27,320 --> 00:58:30,240
Speaker 2: way to be able to manipulate this man. And again

1238
00:58:30,320 --> 00:58:33,160
Speaker 2: this is not to absolve Trump at all. Trust me,

1239
00:58:33,240 --> 00:58:34,840
Speaker 2: I hate the man and I think he is leading

1240
00:58:34,840 --> 00:58:37,680
Speaker 2: the country and the world into utter disaster and it

1241
00:58:37,720 --> 00:58:39,840
Speaker 2: is one hundred percent all on him. But to understand

1242
00:58:39,880 --> 00:58:42,320
Speaker 2: the forces around him, he thought that the best way

1243
00:58:42,360 --> 00:58:43,400
Speaker 2: to manipulate.

1244
00:58:42,920 --> 00:58:44,920
Speaker 7: Trump would be to get back in his good.

1245
00:58:44,800 --> 00:58:47,880
Speaker 2: Graces as quickly as possible after January sixth, and so

1246
00:58:47,960 --> 00:58:49,760
Speaker 2: that's what he did, and we saw, you know, his

1247
00:58:49,800 --> 00:58:53,040
Speaker 2: first to endorse him. He has been playing this game

1248
00:58:53,240 --> 00:58:57,960
Speaker 2: for a while now, all to effectuate exactly this outcome.

1249
00:58:58,000 --> 00:59:00,160
Speaker 2: And so when you see him on Fox News and

1250
00:59:00,200 --> 00:59:04,000
Speaker 2: he's the happiest man on the planet, watching bombs rain

1251
00:59:04,160 --> 00:59:07,840
Speaker 2: down and murdered little schoolgirls and oil fall from the

1252
00:59:07,880 --> 00:59:11,040
Speaker 2: sky and all of the region in flames, and he's

1253
00:59:11,160 --> 00:59:14,240
Speaker 2: just happy as he could possibly be. Yeah, this is

1254
00:59:14,280 --> 00:59:17,120
Speaker 2: the fulfillment of a lifelong and I do actually think

1255
00:59:17,160 --> 00:59:21,160
Speaker 2: it's just an ideological like he has been very consistent

1256
00:59:21,640 --> 00:59:26,720
Speaker 2: in his neo kan war mongering convictions over many many years,

1257
00:59:27,040 --> 00:59:29,919
Speaker 2: and here he is. He finally found the guy who

1258
00:59:30,000 --> 00:59:33,720
Speaker 2: was willing to go where no president had been willing

1259
00:59:33,760 --> 00:59:35,400
Speaker 2: to go before. I don't know if you saw Tony

1260
00:59:35,400 --> 00:59:39,560
Speaker 2: Blinkin talking about that the Israelis actually tried to use

1261
00:59:39,640 --> 00:59:43,360
Speaker 2: this same approach with Obama, where they were like, well,

1262
00:59:43,400 --> 00:59:45,640
Speaker 2: we're going to Bambaran no matter what, so you better

1263
00:59:45,680 --> 00:59:48,680
Speaker 2: be with us, and Obama was like no, and guess what,

1264
00:59:49,160 --> 00:59:51,680
Speaker 2: it didn't happen. I learned at the idea that we

1265
00:59:52,040 --> 00:59:54,080
Speaker 2: had no choice because Israel's going, and no, you had

1266
00:59:54,080 --> 00:59:55,920
Speaker 2: a choice. The choice would have been to say no

1267
00:59:56,120 --> 00:59:59,080
Speaker 2: to Israel, but nobody's you know, he seems completely incapable

1268
00:59:59,120 --> 00:59:59,480
Speaker 2: of doing it.

1269
00:59:59,520 --> 01:00:01,680
Speaker 3: The moment I can to love doctor Parsi is when

1270
01:00:01,800 --> 01:00:04,640
Speaker 3: we were all in school and he did two or

1271
01:00:04,640 --> 01:00:07,920
Speaker 3: three weeks on that exact decision, the Decision point two

1272
01:00:07,960 --> 01:00:09,840
Speaker 3: thousand and nine. He made us read all the profiles

1273
01:00:10,160 --> 01:00:12,600
Speaker 3: and everything. And it's funny because all of the students

1274
01:00:12,640 --> 01:00:15,360
Speaker 3: were like hardcore neo cons and so this was like

1275
01:00:15,440 --> 01:00:19,240
Speaker 3: a shocking development to their minds about Israeli pressure.

1276
01:00:19,640 --> 01:00:21,200
Speaker 1: And I really came away from that.

1277
01:00:21,160 --> 01:00:24,200
Speaker 3: Class being like, man, he really remember this was a

1278
01:00:24,200 --> 01:00:25,640
Speaker 3: long time ago for me, so I was in a

1279
01:00:25,720 --> 01:00:28,840
Speaker 3: very different phase of my understanding of the American Empire,

1280
01:00:28,840 --> 01:00:29,160
Speaker 3: and I was like.

1281
01:00:29,240 --> 01:00:31,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, maybe these reelies aren't the good guys.

1282
01:00:31,040 --> 01:00:33,720
Speaker 3: Area I was reading this and I was like, this

1283
01:00:33,800 --> 01:00:36,440
Speaker 3: is a real problem man, And then he spent weeks

1284
01:00:36,480 --> 01:00:39,720
Speaker 3: actually making us study how these Raelies and the Iranians

1285
01:00:39,760 --> 01:00:43,560
Speaker 3: had actually fine enough relations beforehand, like in the nineteen eighties,

1286
01:00:43,560 --> 01:00:46,160
Speaker 3: and clean break and the new strategy and how they

1287
01:00:46,200 --> 01:00:48,000
Speaker 3: devised it all around Iran.

1288
01:00:48,040 --> 01:00:49,320
Speaker 1: This like blew my mind.

1289
01:00:49,440 --> 01:00:51,280
Speaker 3: Actually, at the time I got it was like twenty three,

1290
01:00:51,480 --> 01:00:54,120
Speaker 3: twenty four or something. But that's that's why it's so

1291
01:00:54,160 --> 01:00:57,680
Speaker 3: important to know that history is that many previous presidents

1292
01:00:57,680 --> 01:01:03,640
Speaker 3: Obama included, actually Israelis basically give them some sort of ultimatum,

1293
01:01:03,880 --> 01:01:04,960
Speaker 3: and enough of.

1294
01:01:04,920 --> 01:01:06,960
Speaker 1: Them were like, they're like, who do you think you are?

1295
01:01:07,000 --> 01:01:10,080
Speaker 3: I mean Bill Clinton famously, who's the fucking superpower here

1296
01:01:10,280 --> 01:01:12,280
Speaker 3: whenever talking to them, So yeah, it could be done.

1297
01:01:12,440 --> 01:01:15,120
Speaker 3: It's only Trump who is either weak, compromised, I mean,

1298
01:01:15,160 --> 01:01:17,760
Speaker 3: who the hell knows, maybe just dumb. Enough is that

1299
01:01:17,880 --> 01:01:21,960
Speaker 3: usually this simplest explanation is the easiest one. But regardless

1300
01:01:21,960 --> 01:01:23,840
Speaker 3: of what it is, we're in it now, and now

1301
01:01:23,880 --> 01:01:26,360
Speaker 3: that we're in it, it's there's no off ramp. There's

1302
01:01:26,400 --> 01:01:28,480
Speaker 3: no off ramp. People like Lindsay Graham and all of

1303
01:01:28,480 --> 01:01:31,200
Speaker 3: them are in charge. And people should also notice this

1304
01:01:31,560 --> 01:01:34,480
Speaker 3: is that all of these neocom people who hated Trump,

1305
01:01:34,560 --> 01:01:37,080
Speaker 3: as you said, are sucking up to him more than ever.

1306
01:01:37,280 --> 01:01:39,800
Speaker 3: They're the ones who are now declaring, like what true man?

1307
01:01:40,000 --> 01:01:42,040
Speaker 3: And you know what, at this point, I'm like, what

1308
01:01:42,600 --> 01:01:45,360
Speaker 3: is the useful to define maga or whatever. It's like,

1309
01:01:45,400 --> 01:01:47,040
Speaker 3: you can have it. If you want this to be it,

1310
01:01:47,560 --> 01:01:50,200
Speaker 3: take it. You know, it's all go all in. I

1311
01:01:50,240 --> 01:01:53,919
Speaker 3: hope you are. But the only danger, and I worry

1312
01:01:53,920 --> 01:01:56,000
Speaker 3: about this I wonder if you do too, is how

1313
01:01:56,000 --> 01:01:58,920
Speaker 3: can we make sure that this doesn't happen again? Because

1314
01:01:59,080 --> 01:02:01,800
Speaker 3: this was supposed to be the entire project post you Rock.

1315
01:02:02,200 --> 01:02:04,000
Speaker 3: And one of the lessons from that is that we

1316
01:02:04,080 --> 01:02:07,760
Speaker 3: allowed these people to be rehabilitated in society. Paul Wolfowits

1317
01:02:08,120 --> 01:02:11,360
Speaker 3: and Douglas five and I mean all of these guys,

1318
01:02:11,400 --> 01:02:14,760
Speaker 3: I mean got jobs, right Washington, Rumsfeld.

1319
01:02:14,360 --> 01:02:17,760
Speaker 1: Bush changing Bush is like a lib icon. Now, oh

1320
01:02:17,880 --> 01:02:20,400
Speaker 1: he's just a painter, Grandpa. It's like, no, he's not.

1321
01:02:20,680 --> 01:02:23,680
Speaker 2: No, that's I mean, that's that is the lesson. People

1322
01:02:23,760 --> 01:02:25,720
Speaker 2: need to fucking go to jail. They need to go

1323
01:02:25,760 --> 01:02:29,880
Speaker 2: to jail. There needs to be professional concercises. It's unbelievable

1324
01:02:29,920 --> 01:02:32,480
Speaker 2: that we have some of the very same quote unquote

1325
01:02:32,520 --> 01:02:36,240
Speaker 2: journalists who you know, cheerleader the Iraq war, who are

1326
01:02:36,240 --> 01:02:38,720
Speaker 2: now still around to cheerlead the Iran war.

1327
01:02:39,120 --> 01:02:40,560
Speaker 7: It's crazy making.

1328
01:02:40,640 --> 01:02:42,880
Speaker 2: I mean, not only was there not accountability, but in

1329
01:02:42,920 --> 01:02:46,200
Speaker 2: many instances these people continue to fail upward because as

1330
01:02:46,240 --> 01:02:48,880
Speaker 2: long as you're wrong in a way that is regime

1331
01:02:48,920 --> 01:02:52,360
Speaker 2: and empire compliant, then you're good to go. That cannot

1332
01:02:52,480 --> 01:02:54,560
Speaker 2: continue to be the case if we want to avoid

1333
01:02:54,600 --> 01:02:56,240
Speaker 2: this again in the future, and we need to be

1334
01:02:56,400 --> 01:02:58,520
Speaker 2: you know, thinking about that right now, if we all

1335
01:02:58,560 --> 01:03:02,560
Speaker 2: survive this, because the level of danger that has been

1336
01:03:02,640 --> 01:03:08,120
Speaker 2: created for a financial catastrophe, for a violent catastrophe, you know,

1337
01:03:08,200 --> 01:03:10,200
Speaker 2: the potential blowback impacts, I.

1338
01:03:10,120 --> 01:03:12,760
Speaker 7: Mean we already already.

1339
01:03:12,280 --> 01:03:16,040
Speaker 2: What has been done is so consequential and so devastating

1340
01:03:16,200 --> 01:03:20,360
Speaker 2: and you know, very hard to see how we watched blowback.

1341
01:03:20,360 --> 01:03:22,400
Speaker 3: We didn't even cover this used a long time ago.

1342
01:03:22,440 --> 01:03:24,360
Speaker 3: We would have There's some crazy shit going down in

1343
01:03:24,360 --> 01:03:29,240
Speaker 3: New York that's some isis inspired plot or yah NYPI

1344
01:03:29,280 --> 01:03:30,440
Speaker 3: is saying it's isis inspired?

1345
01:03:30,680 --> 01:03:32,440
Speaker 1: Okay, you take it for what it is. Yeah, I

1346
01:03:32,440 --> 01:03:33,000
Speaker 1: want to see.

1347
01:03:32,880 --> 01:03:33,960
Speaker 7: Any whether it was an ID.

1348
01:03:34,080 --> 01:03:36,560
Speaker 1: There was something what that's a story in New York

1349
01:03:36,600 --> 01:03:37,680
Speaker 1: City right, Austin.

1350
01:03:37,880 --> 01:03:40,040
Speaker 3: I mean all of these other arrests. Look, you can

1351
01:03:40,080 --> 01:03:42,320
Speaker 3: say false life, regardless of whether what it is. I mean,

1352
01:03:42,320 --> 01:03:44,360
Speaker 3: it's important that all of this stuff is starting to

1353
01:03:44,400 --> 01:03:44,840
Speaker 3: heat up there.

1354
01:03:44,840 --> 01:03:48,040
Speaker 2: I mean people, look, whether those are legitimate or whatever,

1355
01:03:48,560 --> 01:03:51,360
Speaker 2: people around the world hate our guts right, and are

1356
01:03:51,400 --> 01:03:53,600
Speaker 2: only going to hate us more the more they watch

1357
01:03:53,640 --> 01:03:57,640
Speaker 2: our bombs fall on innocent schoolgirls and our president lie

1358
01:03:57,680 --> 01:04:00,000
Speaker 2: about it and us throw our weight around the world.

1359
01:04:00,040 --> 01:04:02,560
Speaker 7: World. You don't think that's going to have consequences here

1360
01:04:02,640 --> 01:04:03,960
Speaker 7: at home. You don't think that.

1361
01:04:04,040 --> 01:04:06,200
Speaker 2: I mean Trump got asked about this, He got asked

1362
01:04:06,240 --> 01:04:09,280
Speaker 2: about that, and he was like, yeah, I guess that, Yeah,

1363
01:04:09,320 --> 01:04:12,600
Speaker 2: that could happen. I mean, just completely blase about the

1364
01:04:12,960 --> 01:04:17,520
Speaker 2: potential consequences for a war that a minority, a minority

1365
01:04:17,560 --> 01:04:22,680
Speaker 2: of the population is wants to fight at all. So yeah,

1366
01:04:22,840 --> 01:04:26,320
Speaker 2: Lindsay apparently is earning his place in history here.

1367
01:04:27,400 --> 01:04:27,920
Speaker 7: No doubt.

1368
01:04:27,960 --> 01:04:31,280
Speaker 2: He was extremely influential, and he played his cards right,

1369
01:04:31,240 --> 01:04:33,600
Speaker 2: and he knew how to manipulate Trump. Again, that is,

1370
01:04:34,000 --> 01:04:36,040
Speaker 2: this is all comes down to Trump. The buck stops

1371
01:04:36,040 --> 01:04:38,040
Speaker 2: with him. But he was one of the forces that

1372
01:04:38,080 --> 01:04:40,439
Speaker 2: was pushing in this direction, and he got his wish.

1373
01:04:40,520 --> 01:04:42,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, no, I mean his name will ring out, that's

1374
01:04:42,880 --> 01:04:45,360
Speaker 3: for sure, knowing Washington, though, he'll get his name on

1375
01:04:45,400 --> 01:04:47,280
Speaker 3: a damned building and then fifty years from now, but

1376
01:04:47,440 --> 01:04:48,840
Speaker 3: the Graham Centered office building.

1377
01:04:48,920 --> 01:04:49,520
Speaker 1: That's how.

1378
01:04:49,960 --> 01:04:52,920
Speaker 2: You know, Kyle and I were talking about this. How

1379
01:04:53,000 --> 01:04:54,600
Speaker 2: are they going to spend this thing? Like in the

1380
01:04:54,640 --> 01:04:57,640
Speaker 2: history books? How can you possibly spend this thing?

1381
01:04:57,840 --> 01:04:58,440
Speaker 1: He always do.

1382
01:04:58,640 --> 01:05:01,480
Speaker 3: I mean, I hate look, hate to be a genuine doomer.

1383
01:05:01,520 --> 01:05:03,040
Speaker 3: But everyone said that about Vietnam.

1384
01:05:03,080 --> 01:05:03,480
Speaker 1: Guess what.

1385
01:05:03,520 --> 01:05:06,280
Speaker 3: All those people were fine, they were super rich, you

1386
01:05:06,320 --> 01:05:07,920
Speaker 3: know all yeah, but it's.

1387
01:05:07,520 --> 01:05:09,840
Speaker 2: Like nothing happened still is seen as a catastroph It's

1388
01:05:09,840 --> 01:05:12,960
Speaker 2: like synonymous with an American military catastrophe, as is the

1389
01:05:13,000 --> 01:05:15,440
Speaker 2: Iraq War, although they still try to, you know, to

1390
01:05:15,480 --> 01:05:16,440
Speaker 2: spin it if you.

1391
01:05:16,440 --> 01:05:18,920
Speaker 3: Can say, you can say Iraq was a disaster. But

1392
01:05:19,080 --> 01:05:21,040
Speaker 3: did anybody really pay a price? Every single one of

1393
01:05:21,080 --> 01:05:23,960
Speaker 3: those generals, filthy rich, None of them paid any price.

1394
01:05:24,080 --> 01:05:26,120
Speaker 3: Not just the generals, all of the political leaders. I

1395
01:05:26,200 --> 01:05:28,160
Speaker 3: knew some of these people. They're all still sitting here

1396
01:05:28,280 --> 01:05:31,880
Speaker 3: pretty in Washington. Dick Cheney, his obituary said, what he's

1397
01:05:31,920 --> 01:05:33,760
Speaker 3: basically a hero for democracy.

1398
01:05:33,960 --> 01:05:37,560
Speaker 1: George W. Bush is a painter. Like I said, Vietnam,

1399
01:05:38,240 --> 01:05:40,160
Speaker 1: Connie's back in the White House. Connie talk about that.

1400
01:05:41,080 --> 01:05:45,320
Speaker 3: George buy and Trump made Robert, these guys they died fine.

1401
01:05:45,440 --> 01:05:46,919
Speaker 1: You know, nobody paid any price.

1402
01:05:47,080 --> 01:05:49,760
Speaker 3: That fifty thousand people were killed, not to mention, was

1403
01:05:49,800 --> 01:05:53,000
Speaker 3: a million or so Vietnamese, Cambodians, all these folks.

1404
01:05:53,240 --> 01:05:54,920
Speaker 1: LVJ. He died of a heart attack.

1405
01:05:55,280 --> 01:05:57,680
Speaker 3: It was like at the end of the day, Like

1406
01:05:58,240 --> 01:05:59,880
Speaker 3: most of the time, it doesn't work out the way

1407
01:06:00,080 --> 01:06:00,840
Speaker 3: we actually wanted to.

1408
01:06:00,960 --> 01:06:03,080
Speaker 1: It's honestly, it's tragic.

1409
01:06:03,160 --> 01:06:05,040
Speaker 7: We have to fight birds in the difference this time.

1410
01:06:05,120 --> 01:06:06,720
Speaker 1: Okay, all right, We'll see you guys tomorrow.

1411
01:06:10,440 --> 01:06:10,640
Speaker 3: Kay,